NEWS:

June 29, 2009: This site is running the code developed by Tad Hurst.

I've done some tuning to make the estimates for Marshall, Crestline and Soboba a bit less optimistic. Why not submit your favorite site? I need site name, lat, long, LZ and launch altitudes and the zipcode.

- Alan

See the southern California RASP Model The detail grid covers the San Diego sites, but the 4km grid covers most of southern California.

Instructional video on reading the RASP Model


NEW!
Check out the WINDGRAMS


Site Forecasts

Sounding

Station:

KNKX (alt)

Date/Time:

21 JUL 2017

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast
Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed
Site
Name
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Torrey Pines Gliderport W 8 0 W 7 0 SW 9 0 SW 9 0 W 9 0 W 12 0
Blossom Valley W 9 2216 W 9 2216 W 10 2216 W 10 1992 W 10 1992 W 12 2523
Horse Canyon W 9 6037 W 9 7686 W 9 6999 W 10 2918 W 12 3587 W 10 6312
Little Black W 9 1068 W 9 1125 W 10 1125 W 10 775 W 10 817 W 12 1068
Marshall SW 8 2952 SW 8 3964 SW 13 3627 SW 12 1148 SW 13 899 SW 10 2549
Crestline S 9 1930 SW 10 2592 SW 14 2260 SW 14 60 SW 14 60 S 12 985
Mentone W 8 3727 W 9 4420 W 10 4095 W 10 1955 W 10 1726 W 9 2747
Kagel SW 13 1412 S 13 3065 S 14 1664 S 14 1068 S 13 729 SW 13 1412
Lake Elsinore W 8 4543 SW 10 5193 W 13 5193 W 12 3214 SW 13 2952 W 9 4543
Laguna SW 9 6238 E 8 7657 W 13 7657 E 8 4137 SW 13 4137 SW 7 6868
Big Black W 8 1965 W 7 2506 W 9 1700 W 9 787 W 9 615 W 9 1434
Otay Mesa W 9 1399 W 9 1578 W 10 1221 W 12 1042 W 12 1221 W 13 1578
Soboba SW 10 3727 SW 10 4727 SW 12 4332 SW 13 2698 SW 13 2949 W 9 3727
Henninger Flats SW 12 1729 SW 12 2513 S 9 1491 SW 10 1992 SW 9 985 SW 9 1491
Palomar W 7 887 W 7 1054 W 8 719 W 9 220 W 9 220 W 9 719
Thomas Mt W 10 7788 W 8 9505 W 12 9505 W 10 6386 W 12 6386 W 13 8341
Winchester SW 12 3643 SW 13 4163 SW 14 3383 S 14 2785 S 14 2952 S 10 3643
Blackhawk N 8 10102 NE 9 10638 NE 8 10638 W 8 9318 NE 12 8310 NE 13 10102
Ord S 16 7727 S 16 9648 S 21 9113 S 22 6380 S 22 6380 S 20 7727
Warner Springs SW 9 6649 SW 9 9336 SW 12 8776 SW 10 5381 SW 12 6043 SW 10 8439

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst