NEWS:

June 29, 2009: This site is running the code developed by Tad Hurst.

I've done some tuning to make the estimates for Marshall, Crestline and Soboba a bit less optimistic. Why not submit your favorite site? I need site name, lat, long, LZ and launch altitudes and the zipcode.

- Alan

See the southern California RASP Model The detail grid covers the San Diego sites, but the 4km grid covers most of southern California.

Instructional video on reading the RASP Model


NEW!
Check out the WINDGRAMS


Sounding

Station:

 KNKX (alt)

Date/Time:

 12Z 22 MAY 2013

Temp/Wind data from:

 NOAA Digital Forecast
Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon
Site
Name		 Wind Above
Launch		 Wind Above
Launch		 Wind Above
Launch		 Wind Above
Launch		 Wind Above
Launch		 Wind Above
Launch
Torrey Pines Gliderport SW 14 0 SW 15 0 SW 13 0 SW 13 0 W 12 0 SW 12 0
Blossom Valley SW 14 1899 SW 15 1696 W 12 1696 SW 13 1696 W 13 1797 W 13 1696
Horse Canyon W 16 2674 W 17 958 W 12 1527 SW 17 1242 W 18 1527 W 18 1527
Little Black SW 14 1354 SW 15 1264 W 12 1338 SW 13 1338 W 12 1264 SW 12 1309
Marshall S 14 799 S 14 0 S 12 0 S 16 0 S 14 0 SW 13 0
Crestline S 16 0 S 16 0 S 13 0 S 17 0 SW 14 0 SW 13 0
Kagel N 17 1427 SW 14 422 SW 16 99 SW 16 0 SW 16 0 SW 16 0
Lake Elsinore SW 17 2141 SW 15 834 SW 15 1040 SW 12 937 W 10 1040 SW 10 1143
Laguna SW 29 3086 SW 31 171 SW 20 1305 SW 21 1305 W 18 1305 W 18 1305
Big Black SW 16 215 SW 17 0 SW 12 0 SW 15 0 W 15 0 W 15 0
Otay Mesa W 14 1112 W 15 1006 W 12 1039 W 14 976 W 13 976 W 13 1006
Soboba SW 16 1171 SW 16 0 SW 12 87 W 15 0 W 17 191 W 16 191
Henninger Flats SW 16 1511 SW 14 445 SW 12 1179 S 14 86 S 14 86 SW 14 86
Palomar SW 13 1437 SW 13 328 W 10 429 SW 14 328 W 13 328 SW 13 328
Thomas Mt W 20 2924 W 21 942 W 13 1675 SW 16 1288 W 17 1675 W 15 1675
Winchester SW 16 2865 SW 15 1701 SW 12 1905 SW 13 1803 W 13 1905 SW 13 1905

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst