NEWS:

June 29, 2009: This site is running the code developed by Tad Hurst.

I've done some tuning to make the estimates for Marshall, Crestline and Soboba a bit less optimistic. Why not submit your favorite site? I need site name, lat, long, LZ and launch altitudes and the zipcode.

- Alan

See the southern California RASP Model The detail grid covers the San Diego sites, but the 4km grid covers most of southern California.

Instructional video on reading the RASP Model


NEW!
Check out the WINDGRAMS


Site Forecasts

Sounding

Station:

KNKX (alt)

Date/Time:

21 JUL 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast
error getting data for coordinate: 32.5740107668,-116.89399273
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri
Site
Name
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Torrey Pines Gliderport NW 9 0 W 7 0 W 8 0 W 7 0 SW 8 0 SW 7 0
Blossom Valley W 7 2519 W 7 2519 W 9 2906 W 8 3035 W 7 3164 W 8 3164
Horse Canyon S 7 6268 SW 8 4256 NW 9 2530 NE 12 3838 W 12 3838 W 12 6794
Little Black W 9 1192 W 8 1235 W 10 1286 W 9 1388 W 9 1519 W 9 1454
Marshall S 7 2138 SW 8 1871 SW 8 2138 SW 9 2138 SW 9 2404 SW 9 2669
Crestline S 12 228 S 12 95 SW 12 95 SW 13 361 SW 14 228 SW 14 361
Mentone W 8 3210 W 8 2451 W 8 2676 SE 8 2676 W 9 3210 W 9 3210
Kagel S 13 1854 S 12 1462 SW 9 1724 SW 10 2642 SW 12 1854 SW 12 1724
Lake Elsinore W 10 3923 SW 12 3923 W 10 3923 W 13 4446 W 14 5749 W 14 5749
Laguna SW 13 4980 SW 10 3348 E 14 1225 E 13 1496 W 17 2822 W 18 5306
Big Black W 9 1433 W 9 1169 W 10 1433 E 13 1433 W 10 1697 W 12 1697
Soboba SW 9 3002 SW 9 2873 W 7 2614 S 8 2614 SW 10 3131 SW 10 3131
Henninger Flats S 9 1555 SW 9 1425 SW 6 1555 SW 7 2206 SW 8 1685 SW 7 1555
Palomar W 8 1129 W 8 999 W 8 999 N 8 1258 W 8 1647 W 9 1518
Thomas Mt W 8 9756 W 8 7818 W 9 5460 SW 10 6156 W 13 6679 W 14 9197
Winchester SW 10 3809 SW 12 3552 SW 8 3423 SW 10 3681 SW 12 4070 SW 12 4070
Blackhawk SW 10 9267 NE 9 7963 S 16 2820 SW 13 4398 SW 15 6034 SW 14 7040
Ord S 16 8247 S 15 6189 SE 12 3727 SW 15 3727 S 21 6189 S 22 6189
Warner Springs SW 9 5741 SW 9 4740 N 8 4740 E 12 5003 SW 12 5741 W 12 7219

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst