NEWS:

June 29, 2009: This site is running the code developed by Tad Hurst.

I've done some tuning to make the estimates for Marshall, Crestline and Soboba a bit less optimistic. Why not submit your favorite site? I need site name, lat, long, LZ and launch altitudes and the zipcode.

- Alan

See the southern California RASP Model The detail grid covers the San Diego sites, but the 4km grid covers most of southern California.

Instructional video on reading the RASP Model


NEW!
Check out the WINDGRAMS


Site Forecasts

Sounding

Station:

KNKX (alt)

Date/Time:

30 AUG 2016

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast
Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun
Site
Name
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Torrey Pines Gliderport W 9 0 SW 10 0 W 10 0 W 10 0 SW 9 0 SW 9 0
Blossom Valley W 12 1315 W 13 1021 W 13 1021 W 12 792 SW 12 615 SW 12 551
Horse Canyon NW 9 11434 W 12 11300 W 13 11259 W 15 11166 W 16 1933 W 16 0
Little Black W 12 751 W 13 751 W 12 729 W 10 664 SW 9 578 SW 9 553
Marshall N 13 11785 SW 13 11573 SW 13 3724 SW 13 0 SW 12 0 SW 10 0
Crestline N 13 10682 SW 14 8899 SW 14 2892 SW 13 0 SW 13 0 SW 12 0
Mentone W 12 11195 W 14 5682 W 12 610 SW 13 0 SW 13 0 SW 12 0
Kagel SW 10 12022 SW 14 678 S 12 0 S 12 0 S 12 0 SW 9 0
Lake Elsinore W 15 12511 W 14 4388 SW 13 890 W 10 155 SW 9 0 SW 10 0
Laguna E 13 10372 W 13 10225 W 17 10141 SW 16 10183 W 17 8261 W 15 2631
Big Black W 12 11909 W 13 9997 W 13 3041 W 13 0 SW 13 0 SW 13 0
Otay Mesa W 12 742 W 13 686 W 13 659 W 12 501 W 10 287 W 10 254
Soboba W 10 7686 SW 12 2134 SW 10 710 W 14 214 SW 13 75 W 14 0
Henninger Flats SW 10 9922 SW 12 673 SW 10 0 SW 12 0 SW 10 0 SW 8 0
Palomar W 10 0 W 10 0 W 10 0 W 12 0 SW 12 0 SW 10 0
Thomas Mt E 9 11773 S 12 10262 W 15 10142 W 15 10074 SW 14 9938 W 13 9896
Winchester SW 12 6234 SW 15 1570 SW 10 1032 W 14 636 W 13 460 W 13 348
Blackhawk E 13 10463 SW 12 9739 SW 22 9739 SW 25 9670 SW 15 9543 W 14 9501
Ord S 12 11313 S 17 11144 SW 20 11019 SW 20 11019 SW 18 2150 SW 16 3799

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst