NEWS:

June 29, 2009: This site is running the code developed by Tad Hurst.

I've done some tuning to make the estimates for Marshall, Crestline and Soboba a bit less optimistic. Why not submit your favorite site? I need site name, lat, long, LZ and launch altitudes and the zipcode.

- Alan

See the southern California RASP Model The detail grid covers the San Diego sites, but the 4km grid covers most of southern California.

Instructional video on reading the RASP Model


NEW!
Check out the WINDGRAMS


Site Forecasts

Sounding

Station:

KNKX (alt)

Date/Time:

30 JUN 2015

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast
Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun
Site
Name
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Torrey Pines Gliderport W 7 0 W 9 0 W 10 0 W 9 0 W 9 0 W 9 0
Blossom Valley W 10 1454 W 13 1327 W 13 936 W 12 381 W 10 316 W 10 316
Horse Canyon W 10 6054 W 15 3402 NW 13 3402 W 14 3402 W 14 3402 W 12 3402
Little Black W 9 323 W 12 323 W 12 236 W 10 95 W 9 31 W 8 31
Marshall SW 10 7302 SW 12 3265 S 7 2119 S 8 1548 SW 9 3265 SW 12 2537
Crestline SW 13 6945 SW 13 4678 S 12 2710 S 10 3362 S 10 5398 S 12 4678
Mentone W 12 8537 W 12 3721 W 7 1681 W 8 1681 SW 9 2869 SW 10 2869
Kagel SW 13 5930 SW 14 3058 SW 14 1482 SW 13 519 SW 17 778 SW 17 778
Lake Elsinore SW 13 11093 W 17 6086 N 10 3741 NW 9 2678 W 8 3741 W 8 4152
Laguna W 14 3018 W 22 1084 W 22 1084 W 21 2365 W 17 3018 W 13 2365
Big Black W 9 1399 W 13 267 NW 9 0 W 12 0 W 12 0 W 10 0
Otay Mesa W 9 210 W 12 210 W 12 210 W 10 56 W 10 0 W 10 16
Soboba SW 14 5202 SW 15 2345 SW 5 1575 W 9 1575 W 12 1575 W 14 1575
Henninger Flats SW 12 3097 SW 12 1503 SW 13 594 SW 12 0 SW 14 0 SW 14 0
Palomar W 7 0 W 9 0 W 7 0 W 9 0 W 9 0 W 9 0
Thomas Mt NW 13 8566 W 17 6159 NW 17 6159 W 15 6764 W 14 7079 W 13 6159
Winchester SW 16 4809 SW 16 2529 S 7 2017 N 9 2017 W 12 1759 W 12 2017
Blackhawk N 9 8823 W 14 8407 SW 30 8407 SW 22 8407 W 16 8407 W 13 8199
Ord S 20 10618 S 24 9600 S 26 8594 SW 22 8044 SW 21 9600 SW 21 8594

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst