NEWS:

June 29, 2009: This site is running the code developed by Tad Hurst.

I've done some tuning to make the estimates for Marshall, Crestline and Soboba a bit less optimistic. Why not submit your favorite site? I need site name, lat, long, LZ and launch altitudes and the zipcode.

- Alan

See the southern California RASP Model The detail grid covers the San Diego sites, but the 4km grid covers most of southern California.

Instructional video on reading the RASP Model


NEW!
Check out the WINDGRAMS


Site Forecasts

Sounding

Station:

KNKX (alt)

Date/Time:

21 JAN 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri
Site
Name
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Torrey Pines Gliderport SE 9 0 NW 8 140 NW 10 148 E 6 170 NW 17 0 NW 13 0
Blossom Valley E 7 4042 W 7 5313 W 6 6959 E 8 7164 W 14 4167 NW 8 4291
Horse Canyon E 6 3352 NE 10 4159 NE 21 5911 NE 12 6352 W 23 3352 NW 12 5114
Little Black E 8 0 W 8 2720 E 8 4846 W 6 4846 W 16 0 NW 9 355
Marshall N 23 1655 N 16 3369 N 26 4967 N 13 5439 NW 18 1655 N 16 3369
Crestline N 18 266 N 16 873 N 24 3019 N 10 3510 NW 21 266 N 18 2061
Mentone S 5 2034 SW 5 3525 NE 7 5234 S 6 6659 NW 14 2367 N 12 4189
Kagel NE 13 2040 NE 13 3884 NE 16 5486 NE 13 5955 W 21 631 N 13 2295
Lake Elsinore N 9 2997 N 9 5086 N 13 7677 SW 8 7818 W 15 3124 NE 9 5086
Laguna E 6 638 NE 8 2099 E 14 3743 E 7 5042 W 35 2502 W 20 3246
Big Black W 6 3417 E 8 4228 E 22 6443 E 10 6728 W 17 3417 NW 7 4041
Otay Mesa E 9 3700 W 8 4880 E 10 6320 E 10 6729 W 14 3993 NE 8 3700
Soboba SW 3 1352 NE 10 3461 E 20 5580 NE 10 5923 W 14 1352 SE 6 2793
Henninger Flats NE 9 2388 N 8 4573 NE 12 6794 NE 8 6935 W 18 2134 N 9 3960
Palomar W 7 1827 W 6 3394 NE 16 4639 E 10 5052 W 13 0 E 7 2633
Thomas Mt SE 5 1957 NE 10 2772 NE 20 4712 E 7 5306 W 29 2305 NW 12 4236
Winchester NW 5 1804 NE 8 4012 E 8 5894 SW 7 6307 W 12 2109 SW 6 3635
Blackhawk NW 5 242 NE 5 1492 E 7 3684 SW 12 4427 W 29 1877 W 23 1877
Ord NE 7 755 NE 9 2579 NE 13 3509 S 12 5095 W 22 2579 NE 13 1753
Warner Springs S 3 5432 E 6 6580 E 12 8411 E 8 8553 W 17 5098 NW 7 6580

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst