NEWS:

June 29, 2009: This site is running the code developed by Tad Hurst.

I've done some tuning to make the estimates for Marshall, Crestline and Soboba a bit less optimistic. Why not submit your favorite site? I need site name, lat, long, LZ and launch altitudes and the zipcode.

- Alan

See the southern California RASP Model The detail grid covers the San Diego sites, but the 4km grid covers most of southern California.

Instructional video on reading the RASP Model


NEW!
Check out the WINDGRAMS


Site Forecasts

Sounding

Station:

KNKX (alt)

Date/Time:

22 MAY 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast
Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun
Site
Name
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Torrey Pines Gliderport W 8 0 W 10 0 W 12 0 NW 13 0 W 12 0 W 8 0
Blossom Valley W 9 3231 W 10 3320 W 10 3422 W 14 3766 W 13 3422 W 9 5058
Horse Canyon W 10 3107 W 10 5443 NW 10 5921 W 16 5241 W 14 4162 NW 8 7465
Little Black W 9 0 W 10 1898 W 10 2825 W 14 3251 W 13 3038 W 9 3646
Marshall SW 9 1335 SW 9 3261 SW 12 3261 SW 13 2359 SW 10 2252 N 18 4845
Crestline SW 12 0 S 12 278 SW 14 278 SW 16 0 SW 12 0 N 21 1456
Mentone W 9 2132 W 9 3920 W 10 4270 W 10 3416 W 10 3096 W 9 5637
Kagel S 13 1540 S 13 2753 S 13 2753 SW 17 2446 W 14 2446 W 12 4319
Lake Elsinore W 12 2876 W 10 4755 W 14 5012 W 15 4755 W 15 3907 W 10 6721
Laguna W 10 4066 E 9 6776 SW 15 7127 W 26 5736 W 23 4066 NW 6 7127
Big Black W 8 1349 W 8 3121 W 9 3840 W 14 3527 W 12 2672 W 9 5325
Otay Mesa W 9 3198 W 10 3215 W 12 3233 W 15 3373 W 14 3252 W 12 3717
Soboba SW 9 2711 SW 10 4351 SW 12 4351 W 13 4140 W 9 4035 W 10 5570
Henninger Flats S 12 2372 S 12 3158 S 12 3158 SW 13 2840 SW 12 2840 SW 8 4695
Palomar W 7 1536 W 7 1643 W 8 1759 W 10 1759 W 10 1607 W 8 3291
Thomas Mt NW 12 4678 NW 8 6810 W 12 7871 W 20 5278 W 16 3919 NE 16 7871
Winchester SW 12 3020 S 13 4668 S 13 4773 W 12 4668 W 8 4458 W 8 5740
Blackhawk NW 10 6253 NE 9 7291 S 16 9449 SW 17 8480 W 22 6253 N 9 8480
Ord S 17 4317 S 20 5472 S 25 6548 S 25 4522 SW 17 4100 SW 8 7039
Warner Springs SW 9 5483 SW 10 7514 SW 10 7715 W 14 7111 W 14 5914 SW 8 8782

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst