NEWS:

June 20, 2008: This site is running the code developed by Tad Hurst.

I've done some tuning to make the estimates for Marshall, Crestline, Elsinore and Soboba a bit less optimistic. Why not submit your favorite site? I need site name, lat, long, LZ and launch altitudes and the zipcode.

- Alan

Also check out the Southern California Regional Atmospheric Soaring Prediction BLIPMAP Forecast - produced by Klaus Wunderlich

Now running daily, a more southern RASP Model Here The detail grid covers the San Diego sites.

Sounding

Station:

 KNKX (alt)

Date/Time:

 5 JUL 2008

Temp/Wind data from:

 NOAA Digital Forecast
Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu
Site
Name		 Wind Above
Launch		 Wind Above
Launch		 Wind Above
Launch		 Wind Above
Launch		 Wind Above
Launch		 Wind Above
Launch
Torrey Pines Gliderport W 8 0 W 6 0 W 6 0 W 8 0 WNW 8 140 WNW 8 0
Blossom Valley W 10 2136 W 10 2625 W 9 3350 W 10 3350 W 8 3109 W 10 2625
Horse Canyon SW 11 13371 SW 12 14417 SSW 11 14147 W 13 14417 W 12 14147 W 12 14417
Little Black W 9 360 W 8 464 W 8 517 W 9 464 W 8 412 W 8 360
Marshall SW 10 6269 WSW 8 6269 SW 7 6269 SSW 10 10827 SSW 8 10827 SSW 6 5101
Crestline SW 10 11984 SW 9 12971 SSW 8 12733 SSW 11 12971 SSW 9 12971 SSW 7 12464
Kagel SSW 15 2495 SSW 9 2714 SW 7 5610 S 8 10529 SW 8 12018 SSW 6 10529
Lake Elsinore W 9 3056 WSW 6 3275 WSW 6 3494 WSW 10 3494 W 8 2836 WSW 8 3056
Laguna WSW 10 13265 WSW 13 14085 SSW 8 14085 W 11 14618 WNW 11 14352 W 14 14085
Big Black W 8 3047 WSW 6 3047 W 5 5964 W 11 3047 W 10 3047 WSW 10 3047
Otay Mesa WNW 9 949 W 8 949 WNW 8 1083 W 9 1348 WNW 9 1481 W 8 1083
Soboba W 10 11608 WSW 8 12314 WSW 8 12978 W 13 11608 W 10 11608 WSW 7 11608

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the Weather Channel website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the Weather Channel estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the Weather Channel website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst