NEWS:

June 29, 2009: This site is running the code developed by Tad Hurst.

I've done some tuning to make the estimates for Marshall, Crestline and Soboba a bit less optimistic. Why not submit your favorite site? I need site name, lat, long, LZ and launch altitudes and the zipcode.

- Alan

See the southern California RASP Model The detail grid covers the San Diego sites, but the 4km grid covers most of southern California.

Instructional video on reading the RASP Model


NEW!
Check out the WINDGRAMS


Site Forecasts

Sounding

Station:

KNKX (alt)

Date/Time:

25 JUL 2016

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast
Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
Site
Name
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Torrey Pines Gliderport W 9 0 W 13 0 W 10 0 W 12 0 W 14 0 SW 8 0
Blossom Valley W 14 1493 W 15 2215 W 13 1959 W 13 2215 W 12 1670 W 9 1384
Horse Canyon W 14 1840 NW 15 8942 NW 18 6084 W 14 10821 W 17 10821 SW 9 4804
Little Black W 13 395 W 14 451 W 12 451 W 12 562 W 12 562 SW 9 395
Marshall SW 14 1152 SW 10 4441 SW 12 2281 SW 14 5503 SW 15 4441 SW 14 3075
Crestline SW 15 324 SW 12 2414 SW 12 997 SW 14 4150 SW 16 4150 SW 14 997
Mentone W 15 2553 W 12 5008 W 12 2931 SW 14 6295 SW 15 5988 SW 13 3108
Kagel S 12 1518 SW 12 2611 SW 10 2611 SW 9 1518 SW 10 2434 SW 10 1902
Lake Elsinore W 16 2311 W 14 3772 W 16 3242 W 13 3772 SW 13 5261 SW 10 3419
Laguna W 16 3479 W 15 5157 W 16 8874 W 13 10712 W 15 10712 SW 9 5157
Big Black W 13 624 W 15 1370 W 13 1225 W 13 2344 W 14 2165 SW 10 1370
Otay Mesa W 12 852 W 15 852 W 13 691 W 13 1237 W 13 1050 W 9 691
Soboba SW 14 2595 W 12 3738 SW 13 3246 W 16 3913 W 16 3913 W 14 2824
Henninger Flats SW 12 1353 SW 10 2710 SW 10 1766 SW 8 1766 SW 9 1991 SW 9 1624
Palomar W 10 0 W 12 358 W 9 0 W 12 358 W 12 358 W 10 0
Thomas Mt W 15 4692 NW 16 10530 W 16 10530 W 14 11945 W 15 11439 SW 12 10680
Winchester SW 17 2660 NW 10 3990 S 17 3390 W 16 3990 W 16 3990 W 13 3249
Blackhawk SW 15 10248 N 10 10548 W 10 11391 W 14 12132 W 13 12019 SW 12 11391
Ord S 23 6062 S 18 11562 S 18 12019 SW 17 12221 SW 20 12019 SW 16 11725

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst