NEWS:

Feb 16, 2021
- Problems getting data from National Weather Service began on Feb 11 impacting operation of the Soaring Predictor software.
The service seems to be working again at about 75% as of this morning, Feb 16.

Backup data is being sourced from WeatherAPI.com however, their free service is limited to 3 days. If you see a three day forecast for your favorite site, thank the WeatherAPI folks. The full 5-day forecasts are receiving input data from the National Weather service (thank them too :-).

Hourly wind gust has been added to the detail page.

RASP and Windgrams should not be impacted


See the southern California RASP Model The detail grid covers the San Diego sites, but the 4km grid covers most of southern California.

Instructional video on reading the RASP Model



Check out the WINDGRAMS


Sounding

Station:

 KNKX (alt)

Date/Time:

 27 APR 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

 NOAA Digital Forecast
Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu
Site
Name		 Wind Above
Launch		 Wind Above
Launch		 Wind Above
Launch		 Wind Above
Launch		 Wind Above
Launch		 Wind Above
Launch
Torrey Pines Gliderport SW 10 0 WSW 9 0 WSW 10 0 SW 11 0 SW 11 0 W 11 0
Blossom Valley W 10 5222 W 9 6468 W 11 7082
Horse Canyon W 13 3922 W 11 6440 W 14 7255 W 13 7255 W 14 6848 NE 17 6848
Little Black WSW 11 2691 W 10 3329 W 12 3974 WSW 11 3329 WSW 11 3329 W 12 4184
Marshall SW 11 4083 SW 11 5341 SW 14 5982 SW 12 6186 W 13 5555 N 16 5982
Crestline SW 13 2580 NNE 11 4074 SW 13 4507 SW 12 4935 WSW 12 4507 N 17 4727
Mentone W 10 5076 WSW 10 6765 WSW 10 7173 WSW 11 7580 W 11 6969 WSW 13 7580
Kagel N 13 4876 WNW 12 5501 W 16 6346 WSW 13 5916 WSW 14 5708 NE 18 6131
Lake Elsinore WSW 14 4726 WSW 13 5982 WSW 12 6603 WSW 11 6396 WSW 12 5982 W 13 6811
Laguna WSW 20 5894 W 10 8342 W 14 9160 W 13 9160 W 14 8752 ENE 17 8752
Big Black WSW 13 3557 WSW 11 5681 WSW 13 6318 WSW 12 6318 WSW 13 6113 S 13 6524
Otay Mesa W 11 3553 W 11 4810 W 12 5431 WSW 12 4810 WSW 12 4810 W 12 5431
Soboba SW 12 2701 WSW 10 4400 WSW 12 5029 WSW 11 5237 WSW 11 4400 W 12 5237
Henninger Flats SW 9 4569 SW 9 5191 WSW 11 5604 SW 11 5604 SW 11 5398 WSW 13 6230
Palomar WSW 10 1633 W 9 3115 WSW 12 3951 WSW 11 3741 WSW 11 3533 WSW 12 4364
Thomas Mt W 14 6804 WNW 11 8867 W 13 9271 W 13 9872 W 12 9271 NE 13 9271
Winchester SSW 12 3709 SSW 12 5183 WSW 10 6013 WSW 11 6013 WSW 11 5393 W 12 6219
Blackhawk W 24 6304 NW 16 7760 W 18 8375 W 13 8983 WNW 14 8375 N 13 7965
Ord SW 19 5457 WSW 12 6908 WSW 18 7320 SW 16 7731 WNW 14 7320 N 17 7115
Warner Springs WSW 16 2824 WSW 12 5138 W 14 5749 WSW 13 5749 WSW 13 5342 ESE 14 5749

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst