Detailed Predictions for: Otay Mesa
Launch Altitude (f): 1550
LZ Altitude (f): 600
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

20 JUL 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 60 60 N 2 878 1550 0 White 0
6 AM Sat 60 60 N 2 878 1550 0 White 0
7 AM Sat 61 61 N 3 1100 1550 0 White 0
8 AM Sat 62 62 NW 5 1322 1550 0 White 0
9 AM Sat 66 66 NW 5 2202 2138 588 White 4
10 AM Sat 71 71 NW 6 2565 2499 949 Blue 9
11 AM Sat 75 81 NW 8 3039 2799 1249 Blue 19
12 Noon Sat 77 84 NW 9 3279 3033 1483 Blue 22
1 PM Sat 76 84 W 10 3279 3033 1483 Blue 22
2 PM Sat 77 84 W 12 3279 3033 1483 Blue 22
3 PM Sat 76 82 W 12 3120 2875 1325 Blue 20
4 PM Sat 75 79 W 12 2880 2665 1115 Blue 17
5 PM Sat 74 76 W 10 2667 2600 1050 Blue 14
6 PM Sat 72 73 NW 10 2601 2544 994 Blue 11
7 PM Sat 68 68 NW 10 2501 2418 868 Blue 6
8 PM Sat 64 64 NW 9 1763 1550 0 White 0
9 PM Sat 62 62 NW 7 1322 1550 0 White 0
10 PM Sat 62 62 NW 6 1322 1550 0 White 0
11 PM Sat 61 61 N 5 1100 1550 0 White 0
12 Midnight Sun 61 61 N 3 1100 1550 0 White 0
1 AM Sun 61 61 N 3 1100 1550 0 White 0
2 AM Sun 61 61 N 3 1100 1550 0 White 0
3 AM Sun 60 60 N 3 878 1550 0 White 0
4 AM Sun 60 60 N 3 878 1550 0 White 0
5 AM Sun 60 60 N 2 878 1550 0 White 0
6 AM Sun 60 60 N 3 878 1550 0 White 0
7 AM Sun 61 61 N 5 1100 1550 0 White 0
8 AM Sun 63 63 NW 5 1542 1550 0 White 0
9 AM Sun 66 66 NW 6 2202 2138 588 White 4
10 AM Sun 73 73 NW 7 2601 2544 994 Blue 11
11 AM Sun 77 82 NW 8 3120 2875 1325 Blue 20
12 Noon Sun 79 85 NW 9 3430 3114 1564 Blue 23
1 PM Sun 78 84 W 10 3279 3033 1483 Blue 22
2 PM Sun 79 85 W 10 3430 3114 1564 Blue 23
3 PM Sun 78 83 W 10 3199 2953 1403 Blue 21
4 PM Sun 78 81 W 10 3039 2799 1249 Blue 19
5 PM Sun 76 77 W 10 2727 2619 1069 Blue 15
6 PM Sun 75 75 NW 9 2643 2582 1032 Blue 13
7 PM Sun 71 71 NW 8 2565 2499 949 Blue 9
8 PM Sun 67 67 NW 7 2420 2373 823 White 5
9 PM Sun 65 65 NW 6 1983 1815 265 White 3
10 PM Sun 64 64 NW 5 1763 1550 0 White 0
11 PM Sun 64 64 NW 3 1763 1550 0 White 0
12 Midnight Mon 64 64 NW 3 1763 1550 0 White 0
1 AM Mon 64 64 NW 2 1763 1550 0 White 0
2 AM Mon 64 64 NW 2 1763 1550 0 White 0
3 AM Mon 63 63 W 2 1542 1550 0 White 0
4 AM Mon 63 63 S 2 1542 1550 0 White 0
5 AM Mon 63 63 SE 2 1542 1550 0 White 0
6 AM Mon 63 63 SE 2 1542 1550 0 White 0
7 AM Mon 64 64 S 1 1763 1550 0 White 0
8 AM Mon 66 66 SW 2 2202 2138 588 White 4
9 AM Mon 70 71 SW 3 2565 2499 949 Blue 9
10 AM Mon 76 79 W 5 2880 2665 1115 Blue 17
11 AM Mon 81 86 W 7 3598 3193 1643 Blue 24
12 Noon Mon 83 89 W 8 4101 3583 2033 Blue 27
1 PM Mon 82 88 W 9 3933 3416 1866 Blue 26
2 PM Mon 83 89 W 9 4101 3583 2033 Blue 27
3 PM Mon 82 87 W 9 3766 3272 1722 Blue 25
4 PM Mon 81 84 W 9 3279 3033 1483 Blue 22
5 PM Mon 80 81 W 8 3039 2799 1249 Blue 19
6 PM Mon 78 78 W 8 2804 2642 1092 Blue 16
7 PM Mon 73 73 W 7 2601 2544 994 Blue 11
8 PM Mon 68 68 W 6 2501 2418 868 Blue 6
9 PM Mon 66 66 W 5 2202 2138 588 White 4
10 PM Mon 66 66 NW 3 2202 2138 588 White 4
11 PM Mon 65 65 NW 2 1983 1815 265 White 3
12 Midnight Tue 65 65 NW 1 1983 1815 265 White 3
1 AM Tue 65 65 N 1 1983 1815 265 White 3
2 AM Tue 65 65 N 2 1983 1815 265 White 3
3 AM Tue 64 64 NE 2 1763 1550 0 White 0
4 AM Tue 64 64 NE 2 1763 1550 0 White 0
5 AM Tue 64 64 E 2 1763 1550 0 White 0
6 AM Tue 64 64 E 2 1763 1550 0 White 0
7 AM Tue 65 65 E 2 1983 1815 265 White 3
8 AM Tue 67 67 NW 2 2420 2373 823 White 5
9 AM Tue 72 73 NW 2 2601 2544 994 Blue 11
10 AM Tue 79 81 NW 2 3039 2799 1249 Blue 19
11 AM Tue 84 87 W 7 3766 3272 1722 Blue 25
12 Noon Tue 86 90 W 7 4268 3750 2200 Blue 28
1 PM Tue 85 89 W 7 4101 3583 2033 Blue 27
2 PM Tue 86 90 NW 9 4268 3750 2200 Blue 28
3 PM Tue 85 88 NW 9 3933 3416 1866 Blue 26
4 PM Tue 84 86 NW 9 3598 3193 1643 Blue 24
5 PM Tue 82 83 W 9 3199 2953 1403 Blue 21
6 PM Tue 80 80 W 9 2959 2722 1172 Blue 18
7 PM Tue 74 74 W 9 2620 2564 1014 Blue 12
8 PM Tue 68 68 NW 6 2501 2418 868 Blue 6
9 PM Tue 65 65 NW 6 1983 1815 265 White 3
10 PM Tue 64 64 NW 6 1763 1550 0 White 0
11 PM Tue 64 64 NW 2 1763 1550 0 White 0
12 Midnight Wed 64 64 NW 2 1763 1550 0 White 0
1 AM Wed 63 63 NW 2 1542 1550 0 White 0
2 AM Wed 63 63 N 2 1542 1550 0 White 0
3 AM Wed 63 63 N 2 1542 1550 0 White 0
4 AM Wed 62 62 N 2 1322 1550 0 White 0
5 AM Wed 62 62 N 2 1322 1550 0 White 0
6 AM Wed 62 62 N 2 1322 1550 0 White 0
7 AM Wed 63 63 N 2 1542 1550 0 White 0
8 AM Wed 65 65 W 2 1983 1815 265 White 3
9 AM Wed 70 71 W 2 2565 2499 949 Blue 9
10 AM Wed 78 81 W 2 3039 2799 1249 Blue 19
11 AM Wed 83 87 W 7 3766 3272 1722 Blue 25
12 Noon Wed 86 91 W 7 4435 3917 2367 Blue 29
1 PM Wed 85 90 W 7 4268 3750 2200 Blue 28
2 PM Wed 86 91 W 8 4435 3917 2367 Blue 29
3 PM Wed 85 89 W 8 4101 3583 2033 Blue 27
4 PM Wed 84 87 W 8 3766 3272 1722 Blue 25
5 PM Wed 82 83 W 8 3199 2953 1403 Blue 21
6 PM Wed 80 80 W 8 2959 2722 1172 Blue 18
7 PM Wed 74 74 W 8 2620 2564 1014 Blue 12
8 PM Wed 68 68 W 6 2501 2418 868 Blue 6
9 PM Wed 65 65 W 6 1983 1815 265 White 3
10 PM Wed 64 64 W 6 1763 1550 0 White 0
11 PM Wed 64 64 SW 2 1763 1550 0 White 0
12 Midnight Thu 64 64 SW 2 1763 1550 0 White 0
1 AM Thu 63 63 SW 2 1542 1550 0 White 0
2 AM Thu 63 63 SE 2 1542 1550 0 White 0
3 AM Thu 63 63 SE 2 1542 1550 0 White 0
4 AM Thu 62 62 SE 2 1322 1550 0 White 0
5 AM Thu 62 62 N 2 1322 1550 0 White 0
6 AM Thu 62 62 N 2 1322 1550 0 White 0
7 AM Thu 63 63 N 2 1542 1550 0 White 0
8 AM Thu 65 66 W 2 2202 2138 588 White 4
9 AM Thu 70 72 W 2 2583 2521 971 Blue 10
10 AM Thu 77 80 W 2 2959 2722 1172 Blue 18
11 AM Thu 82 87 W 7 3766 3272 1722 Blue 25
12 Noon Thu 85 91 W 7 4435 3917 2367 Blue 29
1 PM Thu 84 90 W 7 4268 3750 2200 Blue 28
2 PM Thu 85 91 W 9 4435 3917 2367 Blue 29
3 PM Thu 84 89 W 9 4101 3583 2033 Blue 27
4 PM Thu 83 86 W 9 3598 3193 1643 Blue 24
5 PM Thu 81 83 W 8 3199 2953 1403 Blue 21
6 PM Thu 79 79 W 8 2880 2665 1115 Blue 17
7 PM Thu 73 73 W 8 2601 2544 994 Blue 11
8 PM Thu 67 67 W 6 2420 2373 823 White 5
9 PM Thu 65 65 W 6 1983 1815 265 White 3
10 PM Thu 64 64 W 6 1763 1550 0 White 0
11 PM Thu 64 64 NW 2 1763 1550 0 White 0
12 Midnight Fri 64 64 NW 2 1763 1550 0 White 0
1 AM Fri 63 63 NW 2 1542 1550 0 White 0
2 AM Fri 63 63 N 2 1542 1550 0 White 0
3 AM Fri 63 63 N 2 1542 1550 0 White 0
4 AM Fri 62 62 N 2 1322 1550 0 White 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst