Detailed Predictions for: Otay Mesa
Launch Altitude (f): 1550
LZ Altitude (f): 600
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

21 JAN 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Sun 43 43 E 7 722 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 42 42 E 8 722 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 42 42 E 9 722 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 43 43 E 9 722 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 47 47 E 8 722 1550 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 52 53 SE 7 1074 1550 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 56 57 SE 5 3842 1550 0 Blue 4
11 AM Sun 60 62 S 5 5175 4856 3306 White 9
12 Noon Sun 61 63 S 5 5386 5250 3700 White 10
1 PM Sun 61 63 SW 5 5386 5250 3700 White 10
2 PM Sun 62 63 W 6 5386 5250 3700 White 10
3 PM Sun 60 60 W 6 4747 3811 2261 White 7
4 PM Sun 58 58 W 7 4145 1799 249 Blue 5
5 PM Sun 54 54 W 6 1461 1550 0 Blue 1
6 PM Sun 50 50 NW 5 722 1550 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 47 47 N 5 722 1550 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 46 46 NE 6 722 1550 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 46 46 NE 7 722 1550 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 46 46 NE 7 722 1550 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 45 45 NE 7 722 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 44 44 NE 7 722 1550 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 43 43 E 6 722 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 44 44 E 6 722 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 44 44 NE 5 722 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 44 44 E 5 722 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 44 44 E 6 722 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 43 43 E 6 722 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 44 44 E 7 722 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 49 49 E 6 722 1550 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 54 54 NE 2 1461 1550 0 Blue 1
10 AM Mon 60 61 NW 3 4962 4112 2562 White 8
11 AM Mon 64 66 NW 5 6013 5791 4241 White 13
12 Noon Mon 65 67 NW 5 6221 5916 4366 White 14
1 PM Mon 66 68 W 7 6430 6430 4880 White 15
2 PM Mon 65 66 W 7 6013 5791 4241 White 13
3 PM Mon 65 65 W 8 5805 5667 4117 White 12
4 PM Mon 64 64 NW 8 5595 5543 3993 White 11
5 PM Mon 61 61 NW 6 4962 4112 2562 White 8
6 PM Mon 58 58 NW 6 4145 1799 249 Blue 5
7 PM Mon 55 55 NE 3 1810 1550 0 Blue 2
8 PM Mon 52 52 NE 2 864 1550 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 51 51 N 2 722 1550 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 50 50 NE 1 722 1550 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 49 49 NE 1 722 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 48 48 NE 1 722 1550 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 48 48 NE 2 722 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 48 48 E 2 722 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 48 48 E 3 722 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 47 47 NE 6 722 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 46 46 NE 7 722 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 46 46 E 7 722 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 49 49 E 10 722 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 55 55 E 9 1810 1550 0 Blue 2
9 AM Tue 63 64 NE 1 5595 5543 3993 White 11
10 AM Tue 69 71 NW 5 7051 7051 5501 White 18
11 AM Tue 72 75 NW 5 7870 7870 6320 White 22
12 Noon Tue 71 74 NW 6 7666 7666 6116 White 21
1 PM Tue 71 74 W 7 7666 7666 6116 White 21
2 PM Tue 71 73 NW 7 7463 7463 5913 White 20
3 PM Tue 71 72 NW 7 7258 7258 5708 White 19
4 PM Tue 69 69 NW 6 6637 6637 5087 White 16
5 PM Tue 64 64 NW 5 5595 5543 3993 White 11
6 PM Tue 59 59 NW 3 4534 3394 1844 White 6
7 PM Tue 54 54 NE 2 1461 1550 0 Blue 1
8 PM Tue 51 51 SE 1 722 1550 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 50 50 E 3 722 1550 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 51 51 E 6 722 1550 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 51 51 E 7 722 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 52 52 E 9 864 1550 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 52 52 E 9 864 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 53 53 E 8 1074 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 53 53 E 9 1074 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 52 52 E 10 864 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 51 51 E 10 722 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 50 50 E 10 722 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 52 52 E 10 864 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 57 57 E 10 3842 1550 0 Blue 4
9 AM Wed 64 65 E 10 5805 5667 4117 White 12
10 AM Wed 70 72 E 9 7258 7258 5708 White 19
11 AM Wed 73 75 E 9 7870 7870 6320 White 22
12 Noon Wed 74 77 E 9 8279 8279 6729 White 24
1 PM Wed 73 75 S 8 7870 7870 6320 White 22
2 PM Wed 72 74 S 8 7666 7666 6116 White 21
3 PM Wed 70 71 S 8 7051 7051 5501 White 18
4 PM Wed 68 68 W 6 6430 6430 4880 White 15
5 PM Wed 65 65 W 6 5805 5667 4117 White 12
6 PM Wed 62 62 W 6 5175 4856 3306 White 9
7 PM Wed 59 59 S 3 4534 3394 1844 White 6
8 PM Wed 57 57 S 3 3842 1550 0 Blue 4
9 PM Wed 56 56 S 3 3536 1550 0 Blue 3
10 PM Wed 55 55 SE 2 1810 1550 0 Blue 2
11 PM Wed 54 54 SE 2 1461 1550 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Thu 54 54 SE 2 1461 1550 0 Blue 1
1 AM Thu 52 52 SE 2 864 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 51 51 SE 2 722 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 50 50 SE 2 722 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 49 49 SE 3 722 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 49 49 SE 3 722 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 50 50 SE 3 722 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 52 52 SW 7 864 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 56 56 SW 7 3536 1550 0 Blue 3
9 AM Thu 60 60 SW 7 4747 3811 2261 White 7
10 AM Thu 63 64 W 10 5595 5543 3993 White 11
11 AM Thu 63 64 W 10 5595 5543 3993 White 11
12 Noon Thu 62 63 W 10 5386 5250 3700 White 10
1 PM Thu 61 62 W 13 5175 4856 3306 White 9
2 PM Thu 60 61 W 13 4962 4112 2562 White 8
3 PM Thu 60 60 W 13 4747 3811 2261 White 7
4 PM Thu 59 59 W 14 4534 3394 1844 White 6
5 PM Thu 59 59 W 14 4534 3394 1844 White 6
6 PM Thu 58 58 W 14 4145 1799 249 Blue 5
7 PM Thu 56 56 NW 10 3536 1550 0 Blue 3
8 PM Thu 55 55 NW 10 1810 1550 0 Blue 2
9 PM Thu 53 53 NW 10 1074 1550 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 51 51 N 7 722 1550 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 50 50 N 7 722 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 48 48 N 7 722 1550 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 48 48 NE 7 722 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 48 48 NE 7 722 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 48 48 NE 7 722 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 47 47 NE 8 722 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 46 46 NE 8 722 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 46 46 NE 8 722 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 47 47 N 8 722 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 50 50 N 8 722 1550 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 53 54 N 8 1461 1550 0 Blue 1
10 AM Fri 57 59 NW 8 4534 3394 1844 White 6
11 AM Fri 59 61 NW 8 4962 4112 2562 White 8
12 Noon Fri 60 62 NW 8 5175 4856 3306 White 9
1 PM Fri 61 63 NW 8 5386 5250 3700 White 10
2 PM Fri 62 63 NW 8 5386 5250 3700 White 10
3 PM Fri 62 63 NW 8 5386 5250 3700 White 10
4 PM Fri 61 61 NW 8 4962 4112 2562 White 8
5 PM Fri 59 59 NW 8 4534 3394 1844 White 6
6 PM Fri 56 56 NW 8 3536 1550 0 Blue 3
7 PM Fri 54 54 N 7 1461 1550 0 Blue 1
8 PM Fri 52 52 N 7 864 1550 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 51 51 N 7 722 1550 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 51 51 NE 5 722 1550 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 51 51 NE 5 722 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 50 50 NE 5 722 1550 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 49 49 NE 5 722 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 48 48 NE 5 722 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 46 46 NE 5 722 1550 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst