Detailed Predictions for: Otay Mesa
Launch Altitude (f): 1550
LZ Altitude (f): 600
Sounding

Station:

 KNKX

Date/Time:

 15 MAR 2010

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
5 AM Mon 48 48 E 6 682 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 47 47 E 6 682 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 47 47 E 6 682 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 48 48 E 5 682 1550 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 58 59 E 5 945 1550 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 65 68 E 5 2520 1783 233 Blue 6
11 AM Mon 70 74 E 6 6064 4087 2537 Blue 12
12 Noon Mon 74 79 E 6 7124 6450 4900 Blue 17
1 PM Mon 74 79 E 6 7124 6450 4900 Blue 17
2 PM Mon 75 80 E 7 7334 6661 5111 Blue 18
3 PM Mon 74 77 E 7 6702 6013 4463 Blue 15
4 PM Mon 73 75 E 7 6277 4667 3117 Blue 13
5 PM Mon 72 73 E 9 5413 3485 1935 Blue 11
6 PM Mon 69 69 E 9 2902 2025 475 Blue 7
7 PM Mon 65 65 E 9 1791 1550 0 Blue 3
8 PM Mon 61 61 E 9 1069 1550 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 60 60 E 9 1007 1550 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 59 59 E 9 945 1550 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 58 58 E 10 883 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 57 57 E 10 821 1550 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 56 56 E 10 760 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 55 55 E 10 698 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 54 54 E 10 682 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 54 54 E 10 682 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 53 53 E 13 682 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 52 52 E 13 682 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 52 52 E 13 682 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 53 53 E 13 682 1550 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 61 62 E 13 1132 1550 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 68 71 E 13 4151 2507 957 Blue 9
11 AM Tue 72 76 E 14 6490 5303 3753 Blue 14
12 Noon Tue 75 80 E 14 7334 6661 5111 Blue 18
1 PM Tue 75 80 E 14 7334 6661 5111 Blue 18
2 PM Tue 76 81 E 13 7543 6870 5320 Blue 19
3 PM Tue 75 79 E 13 7124 6450 4900 Blue 17
4 PM Tue 74 76 E 13 6490 5303 3753 Blue 14
5 PM Tue 73 74 E 10 6064 4087 2537 Blue 12
6 PM Tue 70 70 E 10 3540 2266 716 Blue 8
7 PM Tue 66 66 E 10 2035 1550 0 Blue 4
8 PM Tue 62 62 E 10 1132 1550 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 61 61 E 10 1069 1550 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 60 60 E 10 1007 1550 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 59 59 E 10 945 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 58 58 E 10 883 1550 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 57 57 E 10 821 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 56 56 E 10 760 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 55 55 E 10 698 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 55 55 E 10 698 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 54 54 E 9 682 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 53 53 E 9 682 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 53 53 E 9 682 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 54 54 E 9 682 1550 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 62 63 E 9 1299 1550 0 Blue 1
10 AM Wed 68 70 E 9 3540 2266 716 Blue 8
11 AM Wed 72 76 N 1 6490 5303 3753 Blue 14
12 Noon Wed 75 80 N 1 7334 6661 5111 Blue 18
1 PM Wed 75 80 N 1 7334 6661 5111 Blue 18
2 PM Wed 76 81 N 1 7543 6870 5320 Blue 19
3 PM Wed 75 79 N 1 7124 6450 4900 Blue 17
4 PM Wed 74 76 N 1 6490 5303 3753 Blue 14
5 PM Wed 73 74 W 6 6064 4087 2537 Blue 12
6 PM Wed 70 70 W 6 3540 2266 716 Blue 8
7 PM Wed 65 65 W 6 1791 1550 0 Blue 3
8 PM Wed 62 62 W 6 1132 1550 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 61 61 W 6 1069 1550 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 59 59 W 6 945 1550 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 58 58 E 3 883 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 57 57 E 3 821 1550 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 56 56 E 3 760 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 55 55 E 3 698 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 54 54 E 3 682 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 54 54 E 3 682 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 53 53 E 3 682 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 52 52 E 3 682 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 52 52 E 3 682 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 53 53 E 3 682 1550 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 60 61 E 3 1069 1550 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 66 69 E 3 2902 2025 475 Blue 7
11 AM Thu 69 73 W 5 5413 3485 1935 Blue 11
12 Noon Thu 72 77 W 5 6702 6013 4463 Blue 15
1 PM Thu 72 77 W 5 6702 6013 4463 Blue 15
2 PM Thu 73 78 W 5 6913 6239 4689 Blue 16
3 PM Thu 72 76 W 5 6490 5303 3753 Blue 14
4 PM Thu 71 73 W 5 5413 3485 1935 Blue 11
5 PM Thu 70 71 W 7 4151 2507 957 Blue 9
6 PM Thu 67 67 W 7 2278 1550 0 Blue 5
7 PM Thu 63 63 W 7 1299 1550 0 Blue 1
8 PM Thu 59 59 W 7 945 1550 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 58 58 W 7 883 1550 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 57 57 W 7 821 1550 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 56 56 SE 2 760 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 55 55 SE 2 698 1550 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 54 54 SE 2 682 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 53 53 SE 2 682 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 52 52 SE 2 682 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 52 52 SE 2 682 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 51 51 E 2 682 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 50 50 E 2 682 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 50 50 E 2 682 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 51 51 E 2 682 1550 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 60 61 E 2 1069 1550 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 67 70 E 2 3540 2266 716 Blue 8
11 AM Fri 71 75 W 7 6277 4667 3117 Blue 13
12 Noon Fri 75 80 W 7 7334 6661 5111 Blue 18
1 PM Fri 75 80 W 7 7334 6661 5111 Blue 18
2 PM Fri 76 81 W 7 7543 6870 5320 Blue 19
3 PM Fri 75 79 W 7 7124 6450 4900 Blue 17
4 PM Fri 74 76 W 7 6490 5303 3753 Blue 14
5 PM Fri 72 73 W 7 5413 3485 1935 Blue 11
6 PM Fri 70 70 W 7 3540 2266 716 Blue 8
7 PM Fri 65 65 W 7 1791 1550 0 Blue 3
8 PM Fri 61 61 W 7 1069 1550 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 60 60 W 7 1007 1550 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 58 58 W 7 883 1550 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 57 57 S 1 821 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 56 56 S 1 760 1550 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 55 55 S 1 698 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 54 54 S 1 682 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 53 53 S 1 682 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 53 53 S 1 682 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 52 52 E 1 682 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 51 51 E 1 682 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 51 51 E 1 682 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 52 52 E 1 682 1550 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 59 60 E 1 1007 1550 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 65 68 E 1 2520 1783 233 Blue 6
11 AM Sat 69 73 NW 3 5413 3485 1935 Blue 11
12 Noon Sat 72 77 NW 3 6702 6013 4463 Blue 15
1 PM Sat 72 77 NW 3 6702 6013 4463 Blue 15
2 PM Sat 73 78 NW 3 6913 6239 4689 Blue 16
3 PM Sat 72 76 NW 3 6490 5303 3753 Blue 14
4 PM Sat 71 73 NW 3 5413 3485 1935 Blue 11
5 PM Sat 70 71 NW 7 4151 2507 957 Blue 9
6 PM Sat 67 67 NW 7 2278 1550 0 Blue 5
7 PM Sat 62 62 NW 7 1132 1550 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 59 59 NW 7 945 1550 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 58 58 NW 7 883 1550 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 56 56 NW 7 760 1550 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 55 55 E 1 698 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 54 54 E 1 682 1550 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 53 53 E 1 682 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 52 52 E 1 682 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 51 51 E 1 682 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 51 51 E 1 682 1550 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst