Detailed Predictions for: Otay Mesa
Launch Altitude (f): 1550
LZ Altitude (f): 600
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

21 SEP 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Fri 61 61 E 0 878 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 62 62 SE 0 1044 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 61 61 S 1 878 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 64 64 W 2 1349 1550 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 68 69 W 3 1513 1550 0 Blue 5
10 AM Fri 72 75 W 5 1826 1656 106 Blue 11
11 AM Fri 76 81 W 8 2053 1939 389 Blue 17
12 Noon Fri 78 84 W 9 2317 2049 499 Blue 20
1 PM Fri 78 84 W 9 2317 2049 499 Blue 20
2 PM Fri 79 84 W 12 2317 2049 499 Blue 20
3 PM Fri 78 82 W 12 2139 1970 420 Blue 18
4 PM Fri 77 79 W 10 1971 1870 320 Blue 15
5 PM Fri 76 77 W 9 1909 1768 218 Blue 13
6 PM Fri 73 73 NW 9 1714 1550 0 Blue 9
7 PM Fri 68 68 NW 8 1480 1550 0 Blue 4
8 PM Fri 66 66 NW 6 1414 1550 0 Blue 2
9 PM Fri 65 65 NW 5 1381 1550 0 Blue 1
10 PM Fri 64 64 NW 3 1349 1550 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 64 64 NW 2 1349 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 64 64 NW 2 1349 1550 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 64 64 NW 3 1349 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 63 63 NW 3 1210 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 63 63 NW 3 1210 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 63 63 NW 3 1210 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 62 62 N 2 1044 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 63 63 N 2 1210 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 62 62 N 2 1044 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 65 65 NW 2 1381 1550 0 Blue 1
9 AM Sat 70 71 NW 3 1602 1550 0 Blue 7
10 AM Sat 74 77 NW 5 1909 1768 218 Blue 13
11 AM Sat 79 84 NW 9 2317 2049 499 Blue 20
12 Noon Sat 81 87 NW 10 3083 2304 754 Blue 23
1 PM Sat 81 87 W 12 3083 2304 754 Blue 23
2 PM Sat 82 88 W 12 3164 2850 1300 Blue 24
3 PM Sat 81 85 NW 12 2864 2136 586 Blue 21
4 PM Sat 80 82 W 12 2139 1970 420 Blue 18
5 PM Sat 78 79 W 10 1971 1870 320 Blue 15
6 PM Sat 75 75 W 9 1826 1656 106 Blue 11
7 PM Sat 70 70 NW 8 1546 1550 0 Blue 6
8 PM Sat 67 67 NW 6 1447 1550 0 Blue 3
9 PM Sat 66 66 NW 3 1414 1550 0 Blue 2
10 PM Sat 65 65 W 3 1381 1550 0 Blue 1
11 PM Sat 64 64 NW 3 1349 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 64 64 NW 2 1349 1550 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 64 64 NW 2 1349 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 64 64 NW 2 1349 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 64 64 N 2 1349 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 63 63 NW 2 1210 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 62 62 N 1 1044 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 63 63 NW 1 1210 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 62 62 NW 0 1044 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 65 65 W 2 1381 1550 0 Blue 1
9 AM Sun 69 70 W 3 1546 1550 0 Blue 6
10 AM Sun 73 75 W 5 1826 1656 106 Blue 11
11 AM Sun 77 82 W 9 2139 1970 420 Blue 18
12 Noon Sun 79 85 W 10 2864 2136 586 Blue 21
1 PM Sun 79 85 W 12 2864 2136 586 Blue 21
2 PM Sun 80 86 W 12 3002 2205 655 Blue 22
3 PM Sun 80 84 W 10 2317 2049 499 Blue 20
4 PM Sun 78 80 W 10 2002 1908 358 Blue 16
5 PM Sun 77 78 W 9 1940 1824 274 Blue 14
6 PM Sun 73 73 NW 8 1714 1550 0 Blue 9
7 PM Sun 69 69 NW 7 1513 1550 0 Blue 5
8 PM Sun 66 66 NW 5 1414 1550 0 Blue 2
9 PM Sun 65 65 NW 3 1381 1550 0 Blue 1
10 PM Sun 64 64 NW 3 1349 1550 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 64 64 NW 3 1349 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 64 64 N 3 1349 1550 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 64 64 N 2 1349 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 64 64 N 0 1349 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 63 63 S 1 1210 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 63 63 S 1 1210 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 62 62 NE 1 1044 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 63 63 NE 1 1210 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 62 62 NE 1 1044 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 65 65 NW 1 1381 1550 0 Blue 1
9 AM Mon 69 70 NW 1 1546 1550 0 Blue 6
10 AM Mon 73 76 NW 1 1871 1712 162 Blue 12
11 AM Mon 77 82 W 8 2139 1970 420 Blue 18
12 Noon Mon 79 85 W 8 2864 2136 586 Blue 21
1 PM Mon 80 86 W 8 3002 2205 655 Blue 22
2 PM Mon 80 86 W 13 3002 2205 655 Blue 22
3 PM Mon 79 83 W 13 2208 2000 450 Blue 19
4 PM Mon 78 81 W 13 2053 1939 389 Blue 17
5 PM Mon 76 77 W 10 1909 1768 218 Blue 13
6 PM Mon 73 73 W 10 1714 1550 0 Blue 9
7 PM Mon 68 68 W 10 1480 1550 0 Blue 4
8 PM Mon 66 66 NW 3 1414 1550 0 Blue 2
9 PM Mon 64 64 NW 3 1349 1550 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 64 64 NW 3 1349 1550 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 63 63 N 2 1210 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 63 63 N 2 1210 1550 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 63 63 N 2 1210 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 63 63 N 2 1210 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 62 62 N 2 1044 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 62 62 N 2 1044 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 61 61 NE 2 878 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 62 62 NE 2 1044 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 61 61 NE 2 878 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 64 64 NW 2 1349 1550 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 68 69 NW 2 1513 1550 0 Blue 5
10 AM Tue 73 76 NW 2 1871 1712 162 Blue 12
11 AM Tue 77 82 W 8 2139 1970 420 Blue 18
12 Noon Tue 79 85 W 8 2864 2136 586 Blue 21
1 PM Tue 80 86 W 8 3002 2205 655 Blue 22
2 PM Tue 80 86 W 12 3002 2205 655 Blue 22
3 PM Tue 80 84 W 12 2317 2049 499 Blue 20
4 PM Tue 78 81 W 12 2053 1939 389 Blue 17
5 PM Tue 77 78 W 10 1940 1824 274 Blue 14
6 PM Tue 73 73 W 10 1714 1550 0 Blue 9
7 PM Tue 69 69 W 10 1513 1550 0 Blue 5
8 PM Tue 66 66 NW 3 1414 1550 0 Blue 2
9 PM Tue 65 65 NW 3 1381 1550 0 Blue 1
10 PM Tue 64 64 NW 3 1349 1550 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 64 64 N 2 1349 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 64 64 N 2 1349 1550 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 64 64 N 2 1349 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 64 64 N 5 1349 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 63 63 N 5 1210 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 63 63 N 5 1210 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 62 62 NE 1 1044 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 63 63 NE 1 1210 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 62 62 NE 1 1044 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 65 65 W 2 1381 1550 0 Blue 1
9 AM Wed 69 70 W 2 1546 1550 0 Blue 6
10 AM Wed 74 77 W 2 1909 1768 218 Blue 13
11 AM Wed 78 83 W 9 2208 2000 450 Blue 19
12 Noon Wed 80 86 W 9 3002 2205 655 Blue 22
1 PM Wed 81 87 W 9 3083 2304 754 Blue 23
2 PM Wed 81 86 W 13 3002 2205 655 Blue 22
3 PM Wed 80 84 W 13 2317 2049 499 Blue 20
4 PM Wed 79 81 W 13 2053 1939 389 Blue 17
5 PM Wed 78 79 W 10 1971 1870 320 Blue 15
6 PM Wed 74 74 W 10 1770 1600 50 Blue 10
7 PM Wed 70 70 W 10 1546 1550 0 Blue 6
8 PM Wed 68 68 NW 5 1480 1550 0 Blue 4
9 PM Wed 66 66 NW 5 1414 1550 0 Blue 2
10 PM Wed 66 66 NW 5 1414 1550 0 Blue 2
11 PM Wed 65 65 N 2 1381 1550 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Thu 65 65 N 2 1381 1550 0 Blue 1
1 AM Thu 65 65 N 2 1381 1550 0 Blue 1
2 AM Thu 64 64 N 1 1349 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 64 64 N 1 1349 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 64 64 N 1 1349 1550 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst