Detailed Predictions for: Otay Mesa
Launch Altitude (f): 1550
LZ Altitude (f): 600
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

17 NOV 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Sat 55 55 E 5 715 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 56 56 E 6 715 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 55 55 E 6 715 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 56 56 E 6 715 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 61 61 E 5 1097 1550 0 Blue 2
9 AM Sat 65 66 SE 3 2012 1550 0 Blue 7
10 AM Sat 67 69 SW 5 2627 2009 459 Blue 10
11 AM Sat 69 71 W 6 3020 2314 764 Blue 12
12 Noon Sat 70 72 W 7 3232 2615 1065 Blue 13
1 PM Sat 69 71 W 9 3020 2314 764 Blue 12
2 PM Sat 70 71 W 9 3020 2314 764 Blue 12
3 PM Sat 69 69 W 9 2627 2009 459 Blue 10
4 PM Sat 67 67 W 7 2110 1633 83 Blue 8
5 PM Sat 63 63 W 5 1458 1550 0 Blue 4
6 PM Sat 60 60 NW 3 1016 1550 0 Blue 1
7 PM Sat 59 59 N 2 945 1550 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 58 58 NE 2 816 1550 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 57 57 NE 2 715 1550 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 57 57 E 2 715 1550 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 56 56 E 1 715 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 55 55 E 2 715 1550 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 56 56 E 2 715 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 56 56 E 2 715 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 55 55 NE 1 715 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 55 55 NE 3 715 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 56 56 NE 3 715 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 55 55 E 3 715 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 56 56 E 2 715 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 61 61 E 1 1097 1550 0 Blue 2
9 AM Sun 65 66 NW 2 2012 1550 0 Blue 7
10 AM Sun 68 70 NW 6 2814 2102 552 Blue 11
11 AM Sun 70 72 NW 7 3232 2615 1065 Blue 13
12 Noon Sun 71 73 NW 8 3563 2801 1251 Blue 14
1 PM Sun 70 72 W 10 3232 2615 1065 Blue 13
2 PM Sun 71 72 W 10 3232 2615 1065 Blue 13
3 PM Sun 70 70 W 9 2814 2102 552 Blue 11
4 PM Sun 68 68 NW 7 2329 1811 261 Blue 9
5 PM Sun 64 64 W 5 1638 1550 0 Blue 5
6 PM Sun 61 61 NW 3 1097 1550 0 Blue 2
7 PM Sun 60 60 N 3 1016 1550 0 Blue 1
8 PM Sun 59 59 NE 3 945 1550 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 58 58 E 3 816 1550 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 58 58 E 6 816 1550 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 57 57 E 7 715 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 56 56 E 7 715 1550 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 57 57 E 9 715 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 57 57 E 10 715 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 56 56 E 12 715 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 56 56 E 10 715 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 57 57 E 10 715 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 56 56 E 10 715 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 57 57 E 12 715 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 63 63 E 12 1458 1550 0 Blue 4
9 AM Mon 68 69 E 12 2627 2009 459 Blue 10
10 AM Mon 70 71 SE 2 3020 2314 764 Blue 12
11 AM Mon 72 74 SE 2 3810 3005 1455 Blue 15
12 Noon Mon 74 76 SE 2 4402 3542 1992 Blue 17
1 PM Mon 73 74 W 9 3810 3005 1455 Blue 15
2 PM Mon 74 75 W 9 4082 3209 1659 Blue 16
3 PM Mon 72 72 W 9 3232 2615 1065 Blue 13
4 PM Mon 70 70 W 6 2814 2102 552 Blue 11
5 PM Mon 66 66 W 6 2012 1550 0 Blue 7
6 PM Mon 62 62 W 6 1278 1550 0 Blue 3
7 PM Mon 61 61 NW 3 1097 1550 0 Blue 2
8 PM Mon 60 60 NW 3 1016 1550 0 Blue 1
9 PM Mon 59 59 NW 3 945 1550 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 58 58 N 2 816 1550 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 57 57 N 2 715 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 56 56 N 2 715 1550 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 56 56 E 3 715 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 57 57 E 3 715 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 56 56 E 3 715 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 56 56 SE 5 715 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 57 57 SE 5 715 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 56 56 SE 5 715 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 57 57 E 1 715 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 61 61 E 1 1097 1550 0 Blue 2
9 AM Tue 64 65 E 1 1817 1550 0 Blue 6
10 AM Tue 66 68 W 6 2329 1811 261 Blue 9
11 AM Tue 67 69 W 6 2627 2009 459 Blue 10
12 Noon Tue 68 70 W 6 2814 2102 552 Blue 11
1 PM Tue 68 70 W 9 2814 2102 552 Blue 11
2 PM Tue 68 69 W 9 2627 2009 459 Blue 10
3 PM Tue 67 67 W 9 2110 1633 83 Blue 8
4 PM Tue 65 65 W 8 1817 1550 0 Blue 6
5 PM Tue 62 62 W 8 1278 1550 0 Blue 3
6 PM Tue 60 60 W 8 1016 1550 0 Blue 1
7 PM Tue 60 60 NW 1 1016 1550 0 Blue 1
8 PM Tue 59 59 NW 1 945 1550 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 58 58 NW 1 816 1550 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 57 57 E 2 715 1550 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 57 57 E 2 715 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 56 56 E 2 715 1550 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 56 56 E 5 715 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 57 57 E 5 715 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 56 56 E 5 715 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 56 56 E 7 715 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 57 57 E 7 715 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 56 56 E 7 715 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 57 57 E 7 715 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 61 61 E 7 1097 1550 0 Blue 2
9 AM Wed 64 64 E 7 1638 1550 0 Blue 5
10 AM Wed 66 67 W 2 2110 1633 83 Blue 8
11 AM Wed 67 68 W 2 2329 1811 261 Blue 9
12 Noon Wed 68 69 W 2 2627 2009 459 Blue 10
1 PM Wed 68 69 W 9 2627 2009 459 Blue 10
2 PM Wed 68 69 W 9 2627 2009 459 Blue 10
3 PM Wed 67 67 W 9 2110 1633 83 Blue 8
4 PM Wed 66 66 W 8 2012 1550 0 Blue 7
5 PM Wed 63 63 W 8 1458 1550 0 Blue 4
6 PM Wed 61 61 W 8 1097 1550 0 Blue 2
7 PM Wed 60 60 S 5 1016 1550 0 Blue 1
8 PM Wed 60 60 S 5 1016 1550 0 Blue 1
9 PM Wed 59 59 S 5 945 1550 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 58 58 SW 6 816 1550 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 58 58 SW 6 816 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 57 57 SW 6 715 1550 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 57 57 W 3 715 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 58 58 W 3 816 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 57 57 W 3 715 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 57 57 W 5 715 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 58 58 W 5 816 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 57 57 W 5 715 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 58 58 SE 3 816 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 61 61 SE 3 1097 1550 0 Blue 2
9 AM Thu 64 64 SE 3 1638 1550 0 Blue 5
10 AM Thu 66 66 NW 7 2012 1550 0 Blue 7
11 AM Thu 67 68 NW 7 2329 1811 261 Blue 9
12 Noon Thu 68 69 NW 7 2627 2009 459 Blue 10
1 PM Thu 68 69 NW 14 2627 2009 459 Blue 10
2 PM Thu 68 68 NW 14 2329 1811 261 Blue 9
3 PM Thu 67 67 NW 14 2110 1633 83 Blue 8
4 PM Thu 65 65 NW 14 1817 1550 0 Blue 6
5 PM Thu 62 62 NW 14 1278 1550 0 Blue 3
6 PM Thu 60 60 NW 14 1016 1550 0 Blue 1
7 PM Thu 60 60 N 9 1016 1550 0 Blue 1
8 PM Thu 59 59 N 9 945 1550 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 58 58 N 9 816 1550 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 57 57 N 8 715 1550 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 57 57 N 8 715 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 56 56 N 8 715 1550 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 56 56 N 6 715 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 57 57 N 6 715 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 56 56 N 6 715 1550 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst