Detailed Predictions for: Otay Mesa
Launch Altitude (f): 1550
LZ Altitude (f): 600
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

22 APR 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 56 56 NE 2 719 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 57 57 N 1 719 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 60 60 NW 1 719 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 64 65 W 1 1046 1550 0 Blue 1
9 AM Sun 68 70 W 3 1288 1550 0 Blue 6
10 AM Sun 72 76 W 6 1622 1550 0 Blue 12
11 AM Sun 74 80 W 8 2338 1743 193 Blue 16
12 Noon Sun 76 83 W 9 4342 2327 777 Blue 19
1 PM Sun 75 82 W 10 3420 2105 555 Blue 18
2 PM Sun 76 82 W 10 3420 2105 555 Blue 18
3 PM Sun 75 80 W 10 2338 1743 193 Blue 16
4 PM Sun 74 77 W 9 1746 1550 0 Blue 13
5 PM Sun 72 73 W 8 1434 1550 0 Blue 9
6 PM Sun 68 68 W 7 1191 1550 0 Blue 4
7 PM Sun 65 65 W 6 1046 1550 0 Blue 1
8 PM Sun 62 62 NW 3 806 1550 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 60 60 NW 2 719 1550 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 60 60 NW 2 719 1550 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 60 60 N 1 719 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 59 59 N 1 719 1550 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 58 58 NE 0 719 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 57 57 NE 1 719 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 55 55 N 1 719 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 54 54 N 1 719 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 54 54 NE 1 719 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 55 55 NE 1 719 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 57 57 NE 1 719 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 61 62 W 1 806 1550 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 65 67 W 2 1143 1550 0 Blue 3
10 AM Mon 70 74 W 3 1482 1550 0 Blue 10
11 AM Mon 74 80 W 8 2338 1743 193 Blue 16
12 Noon Mon 74 81 W 8 2561 1882 332 Blue 17
1 PM Mon 75 82 W 9 3420 2105 555 Blue 18
2 PM Mon 74 80 W 10 2338 1743 193 Blue 16
3 PM Mon 74 79 W 9 2114 1619 69 Blue 15
4 PM Mon 73 76 W 9 1622 1550 0 Blue 12
5 PM Mon 71 72 NW 8 1385 1550 0 Blue 8
6 PM Mon 68 68 NW 7 1191 1550 0 Blue 4
7 PM Mon 64 64 NW 5 994 1550 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 60 60 NW 3 719 1550 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 59 59 NW 2 719 1550 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 58 58 NW 1 719 1550 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 58 58 NW 1 719 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 58 58 NW 1 719 1550 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 58 58 NW 1 719 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 57 57 NW 1 719 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 56 56 N 1 719 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 55 55 N 1 719 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 55 55 N 1 719 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 56 56 NE 0 719 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 58 58 W 0 719 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 61 62 W 2 806 1550 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 64 66 W 3 1094 1550 0 Blue 2
10 AM Tue 69 72 W 6 1385 1550 0 Blue 8
11 AM Tue 72 77 W 8 1746 1550 0 Blue 13
12 Noon Tue 74 80 W 9 2338 1743 193 Blue 16
1 PM Tue 73 79 W 9 2114 1619 69 Blue 15
2 PM Tue 73 78 W 10 1890 1550 0 Blue 14
3 PM Tue 74 78 W 9 1890 1550 0 Blue 14
4 PM Tue 73 75 W 9 1531 1550 0 Blue 11
5 PM Tue 72 73 W 8 1434 1550 0 Blue 9
6 PM Tue 68 68 W 7 1191 1550 0 Blue 4
7 PM Tue 64 64 W 6 994 1550 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 61 61 NW 3 719 1550 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 59 59 NW 3 719 1550 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 59 59 NW 3 719 1550 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 59 59 W 2 719 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 59 59 W 2 719 1550 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 58 58 W 2 719 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 57 57 E 2 719 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 56 56 E 2 719 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 54 54 E 2 719 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 53 53 N 1 719 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 53 53 N 1 719 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 54 54 N 1 719 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 56 56 NW 6 719 1550 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 60 61 NW 6 719 1550 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 64 66 NW 6 1094 1550 0 Blue 2
11 AM Wed 68 73 W 9 1434 1550 0 Blue 9
12 Noon Wed 71 77 W 9 1746 1550 0 Blue 13
1 PM Wed 72 78 W 9 1890 1550 0 Blue 14
2 PM Wed 73 79 W 10 2114 1619 69 Blue 15
3 PM Wed 73 77 W 10 1746 1550 0 Blue 13
4 PM Wed 72 75 W 10 1531 1550 0 Blue 11
5 PM Wed 70 71 W 8 1337 1550 0 Blue 7
6 PM Wed 67 67 W 8 1143 1550 0 Blue 3
7 PM Wed 63 63 W 8 900 1550 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 60 60 NW 6 719 1550 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 58 58 NW 6 719 1550 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 58 58 NW 6 719 1550 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 58 58 NW 3 719 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 57 57 NW 3 719 1550 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 56 56 NW 3 719 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 55 55 NW 2 719 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 54 54 NW 2 719 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 53 53 NW 2 719 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 53 53 N 2 719 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 53 53 N 2 719 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 55 55 N 2 719 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 57 57 NW 7 719 1550 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 60 60 NW 7 719 1550 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 64 65 NW 7 1046 1550 0 Blue 1
11 AM Thu 67 73 W 10 1434 1550 0 Blue 9
12 Noon Thu 68 74 W 10 1482 1550 0 Blue 10
1 PM Thu 68 75 W 10 1531 1550 0 Blue 11
2 PM Thu 68 74 W 12 1482 1550 0 Blue 10
3 PM Thu 68 73 W 12 1434 1550 0 Blue 9
4 PM Thu 68 71 W 12 1337 1550 0 Blue 7
5 PM Thu 66 67 W 10 1143 1550 0 Blue 3
6 PM Thu 64 64 W 10 994 1550 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 62 62 W 10 806 1550 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 60 60 W 7 719 1550 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 58 58 W 7 719 1550 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 57 57 W 7 719 1550 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 56 56 NW 2 719 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 56 56 NW 2 719 1550 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 55 55 NW 2 719 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 54 54 N 1 719 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 54 54 N 1 719 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 53 53 N 1 719 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 53 53 N 2 719 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 54 54 N 2 719 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 56 56 N 2 719 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 59 59 N 6 719 1550 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 62 62 N 6 806 1550 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 65 66 N 6 1094 1550 0 Blue 2
11 AM Fri 68 74 NW 9 1482 1550 0 Blue 10
12 Noon Fri 69 76 NW 9 1622 1550 0 Blue 12
1 PM Fri 70 77 NW 9 1746 1550 0 Blue 13
2 PM Fri 70 76 W 12 1622 1550 0 Blue 12
3 PM Fri 69 74 W 12 1482 1550 0 Blue 10
4 PM Fri 68 71 W 12 1337 1550 0 Blue 7
5 PM Fri 67 68 W 12 1191 1550 0 Blue 4
6 PM Fri 65 65 W 12 1046 1550 0 Blue 1
7 PM Fri 63 63 W 12 900 1550 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 62 62 NW 7 806 1550 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 60 60 NW 7 719 1550 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 58 58 NW 7 719 1550 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 57 57 N 3 719 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 56 56 N 3 719 1550 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 55 55 N 3 719 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 54 54 N 2 719 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 53 53 N 2 719 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 52 52 N 2 719 1550 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst