Detailed Predictions for: Otay Mesa
Launch Altitude (f): 1550
LZ Altitude (f): 600
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

18 SEP 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Wed 60 60 SE 2 607 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 60 60 NE 2 607 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 61 61 N 2 607 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 63 63 NW 2 1043 1550 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 66 67 W 2 1588 1550 0 Blue 2
10 AM Wed 70 72 SW 3 2201 1720 170 Blue 7
11 AM Wed 74 79 W 6 3264 2961 1411 Blue 14
12 Noon Wed 76 82 W 8 3756 3253 1703 Blue 17
1 PM Wed 78 84 W 9 4265 3529 1979 Blue 19
2 PM Wed 77 83 W 9 4011 3391 1841 Blue 18
3 PM Wed 77 81 W 10 3541 3119 1569 Blue 16
4 PM Wed 76 79 W 10 3264 2961 1411 Blue 14
5 PM Wed 73 74 W 9 2734 2019 469 Blue 9
6 PM Wed 70 70 W 7 1811 1586 36 Blue 5
7 PM Wed 67 67 W 6 1588 1550 0 Blue 2
8 PM Wed 65 65 W 5 1454 1550 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 63 63 NW 3 1043 1550 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 63 63 W 2 1043 1550 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 62 62 W 1 805 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 62 62 W 1 805 1550 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 61 61 S 2 607 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 60 60 SE 2 607 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 59 59 S 2 607 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 58 58 SE 2 607 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 58 58 SE 2 607 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 58 58 SE 2 607 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 59 59 SE 2 607 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 61 61 SE 2 607 1550 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 64 64 S 3 1267 1550 0 White 0
10 AM Thu 68 69 SW 5 1722 1550 0 Blue 4
11 AM Thu 71 75 SW 6 2899 2197 647 Blue 10
12 Noon Thu 74 79 W 8 3264 2961 1411 Blue 14
1 PM Thu 75 80 W 9 3402 3034 1484 Blue 15
2 PM Thu 74 79 W 10 3264 2961 1411 Blue 14
3 PM Thu 74 78 W 12 3126 2895 1345 Blue 13
4 PM Thu 73 75 W 12 2899 2197 647 Blue 10
5 PM Thu 71 72 W 10 2201 1720 170 Blue 7
6 PM Thu 68 68 W 9 1655 1550 0 Blue 3
7 PM Thu 66 66 W 7 1521 1550 0 Blue 1
8 PM Thu 64 64 W 6 1267 1550 0 White 0
9 PM Thu 64 64 NW 3 1267 1550 0 White 0
10 PM Thu 63 63 NW 2 1043 1550 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 63 63 NW 2 1043 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 63 63 W 1 1043 1550 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 62 62 S 1 805 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 61 61 S 2 607 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 60 60 SE 2 607 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 58 58 E 2 607 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 58 58 E 2 607 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 58 58 NE 2 607 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 60 60 N 2 607 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 62 62 NW 2 805 1550 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 66 67 NW 2 1588 1550 0 Blue 2
10 AM Fri 70 72 NW 5 2201 1720 170 Blue 7
11 AM Fri 73 78 W 6 3126 2895 1345 Blue 13
12 Noon Fri 76 82 W 8 3756 3253 1703 Blue 17
1 PM Fri 77 83 W 9 4011 3391 1841 Blue 18
2 PM Fri 77 83 W 10 4011 3391 1841 Blue 18
3 PM Fri 78 82 W 10 3756 3253 1703 Blue 17
4 PM Fri 77 80 W 10 3402 3034 1484 Blue 15
5 PM Fri 75 76 W 9 2965 2300 750 Blue 11
6 PM Fri 72 72 W 8 2201 1720 170 Blue 7
7 PM Fri 69 69 NW 7 1722 1550 0 Blue 4
8 PM Fri 67 67 NW 6 1588 1550 0 Blue 2
9 PM Fri 66 66 NW 3 1521 1550 0 Blue 1
10 PM Fri 65 65 W 2 1454 1550 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 65 65 W 2 1454 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 64 64 NW 1 1267 1550 0 White 0
1 AM Sat 63 63 N 1 1043 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 62 62 NE 2 805 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 61 61 NE 2 607 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 60 60 NE 2 607 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 60 60 N 2 607 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 60 60 N 2 607 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 61 61 N 2 607 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 64 64 SW 2 1267 1550 0 White 0
9 AM Sat 68 69 SW 2 1722 1550 0 Blue 4
10 AM Sat 73 75 SW 2 2899 2197 647 Blue 10
11 AM Sat 77 82 W 6 3756 3253 1703 Blue 17
12 Noon Sat 80 86 W 6 4771 3985 2435 Blue 21
1 PM Sat 81 87 W 6 4989 4238 2688 Blue 22
2 PM Sat 81 87 W 9 4989 4238 2688 Blue 22
3 PM Sat 81 85 W 9 4519 3732 2182 Blue 20
4 PM Sat 81 84 W 9 4265 3529 1979 Blue 19
5 PM Sat 79 80 W 8 3402 3034 1484 Blue 15
6 PM Sat 76 76 W 8 2965 2300 750 Blue 11
7 PM Sat 72 72 W 8 2201 1720 170 Blue 7
8 PM Sat 68 68 NW 3 1655 1550 0 Blue 3
9 PM Sat 66 66 NW 3 1521 1550 0 Blue 1
10 PM Sat 65 65 NW 3 1454 1550 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 64 64 N 1 1267 1550 0 White 0
12 Midnight Sun 64 64 N 1 1267 1550 0 White 0
1 AM Sun 63 63 N 1 1043 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 63 63 E 2 1043 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 62 62 E 2 805 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 62 62 E 2 805 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 62 62 E 3 805 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 63 63 E 3 1043 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 64 64 E 3 1267 1550 0 White 0
8 AM Sun 67 67 SE 2 1588 1550 0 Blue 2
9 AM Sun 71 72 SE 2 2201 1720 170 Blue 7
10 AM Sun 76 78 SE 2 3126 2895 1345 Blue 13
11 AM Sun 80 84 W 6 4265 3529 1979 Blue 19
12 Noon Sun 82 87 W 6 4989 4238 2688 Blue 22
1 PM Sun 82 87 W 6 4989 4238 2688 Blue 22
2 PM Sun 83 88 W 9 5102 4489 2939 Blue 23
3 PM Sun 82 86 W 9 4771 3985 2435 Blue 21
4 PM Sun 80 82 W 9 3756 3253 1703 Blue 17
5 PM Sun 77 78 W 8 3126 2895 1345 Blue 13
6 PM Sun 74 74 W 8 2734 2019 469 Blue 9
7 PM Sun 71 71 W 8 2027 1653 103 Blue 6
8 PM Sun 69 69 SW 5 1722 1550 0 Blue 4
9 PM Sun 67 67 SW 5 1588 1550 0 Blue 2
10 PM Sun 66 66 SW 5 1521 1550 0 Blue 1
11 PM Sun 64 64 S 2 1267 1550 0 White 0
12 Midnight Mon 63 63 S 2 1043 1550 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 62 62 S 2 805 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 61 61 S 2 607 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 61 61 S 2 607 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 61 61 S 2 607 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 61 61 SE 5 607 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 62 62 SE 5 805 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 62 62 SE 5 805 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 64 64 S 6 1267 1550 0 White 0
9 AM Mon 68 69 S 6 1722 1550 0 Blue 4
10 AM Mon 73 75 S 6 2899 2197 647 Blue 10
11 AM Mon 77 81 SW 9 3541 3119 1569 Blue 16
12 Noon Mon 79 84 SW 9 4265 3529 1979 Blue 19
1 PM Mon 78 83 SW 9 4011 3391 1841 Blue 18
2 PM Mon 79 83 SW 12 4011 3391 1841 Blue 18
3 PM Mon 78 81 SW 12 3541 3119 1569 Blue 16
4 PM Mon 79 81 SW 12 3541 3119 1569 Blue 16
5 PM Mon 77 78 SW 10 3126 2895 1345 Blue 13
6 PM Mon 74 74 SW 10 2734 2019 469 Blue 9
7 PM Mon 70 70 SW 10 1811 1586 36 Blue 5
8 PM Mon 67 67 W 5 1588 1550 0 Blue 2
9 PM Mon 66 66 W 5 1521 1550 0 Blue 1
10 PM Mon 66 66 W 5 1521 1550 0 Blue 1
11 PM Mon 66 66 NW 2 1521 1550 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Tue 65 65 NW 2 1454 1550 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 63 63 NW 2 1043 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 61 61 E 3 607 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 60 60 E 3 607 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 59 59 E 3 607 1550 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst