Detailed Predictions for: Otay Mesa
Launch Altitude (f): 1550
LZ Altitude (f): 600
Sounding

Station:

 KNKX

Date/Time:

 10 MAR 2010

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
7 AM Wed 42 42 SW 2 682 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 46 47 SW 2 796 1550 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 51 53 SW 2 3505 1630 80 Blue 4
10 AM Wed 53 56 W 8 4511 3492 1942 White 7
11 AM Wed 55 59 W 8 5147 5147 3597 White 10
12 Noon Wed 56 60 W 8 5357 5357 3807 White 11
1 PM Wed 56 60 W 15 5357 5357 3807 White 11
2 PM Wed 56 59 W 15 5147 5147 3597 White 10
3 PM Wed 56 58 W 15 4937 4937 3387 White 9
4 PM Wed 55 55 W 15 4297 3346 1796 White 6
5 PM Wed 53 53 W 15 3505 1630 80 Blue 4
6 PM Wed 49 49 W 15 977 1550 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 47 47 W 7 796 1550 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 46 46 W 7 705 1550 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 46 46 W 7 705 1550 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 45 45 NW 5 682 1550 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 45 45 NW 5 682 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 44 44 NW 5 682 1550 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 43 43 N 1 682 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 42 42 N 1 682 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 42 42 N 1 682 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 42 42 E 3 682 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 41 41 E 3 682 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 41 41 E 3 682 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 42 42 E 2 682 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 48 49 E 2 977 1550 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 55 57 E 2 4725 4725 3175 White 8
10 AM Thu 59 63 NE 3 5986 5908 4358 White 14
11 AM Thu 62 67 NE 3 6816 6816 5266 White 18
12 Noon Thu 63 68 NE 3 7022 7022 5472 White 19
1 PM Thu 64 69 N 1 7228 7228 5678 White 20
2 PM Thu 65 68 N 1 7022 7022 5472 White 19
3 PM Thu 64 66 N 1 6608 6600 5050 White 17
4 PM Thu 62 63 NW 5 5986 5908 4358 White 14
5 PM Thu 60 60 NW 5 5357 5357 3807 White 11
6 PM Thu 55 55 NW 5 4297 3346 1796 White 6
7 PM Thu 53 53 N 4 3505 1630 80 Blue 4
8 PM Thu 52 52 N 4 3358 1550 0 Blue 3
9 PM Thu 51 51 N 4 2662 1550 0 Blue 2
10 PM Thu 50 50 E 5 1658 1550 0 Blue 1
11 PM Thu 50 50 E 5 1658 1550 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Fri 49 49 E 5 977 1550 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 48 48 E 6 886 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 47 47 E 6 796 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 47 47 E 6 796 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 46 46 E 8 705 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 45 45 E 8 682 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 45 45 E 8 682 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 46 46 E 8 705 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 52 53 E 8 3505 1630 80 Blue 4
9 AM Fri 59 61 E 8 5567 5567 4017 White 12
10 AM Fri 62 66 W 5 6608 6600 5050 White 17
11 AM Fri 65 70 W 5 7433 7433 5883 White 21
12 Noon Fri 66 71 W 5 7638 7638 6088 White 22
1 PM Fri 67 71 W 5 7638 7638 6088 White 22
2 PM Fri 68 71 W 5 7638 7638 6088 White 22
3 PM Fri 67 69 W 5 7228 7228 5678 White 20
4 PM Fri 65 66 W 9 6608 6600 5050 White 17
5 PM Fri 63 63 W 9 5986 5908 4358 White 14
6 PM Fri 58 58 W 9 4937 4937 3387 White 9
7 PM Fri 56 56 W 9 4511 3492 1942 White 7
8 PM Fri 55 55 W 9 4297 3346 1796 White 6
9 PM Fri 54 54 W 9 4083 2550 1000 White 5
10 PM Fri 53 53 NW 5 3505 1630 80 Blue 4
11 PM Fri 53 53 NW 5 3505 1630 80 Blue 4
12 Midnight Sat 52 52 NW 5 3358 1550 0 Blue 3
1 AM Sat 51 51 NW 5 2662 1550 0 Blue 2
2 AM Sat 50 50 NW 5 1658 1550 0 Blue 1
3 AM Sat 50 50 NW 5 1658 1550 0 Blue 1
4 AM Sat 49 49 E 4 977 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 48 48 E 4 886 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 48 48 E 4 886 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 49 49 E 4 977 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 52 52 E 4 3358 1550 0 Blue 3
9 AM Sat 56 57 E 4 4725 4725 3175 White 8
10 AM Sat 58 61 W 9 5567 5567 4017 White 12
11 AM Sat 59 63 W 9 5986 5908 4358 White 14
12 Noon Sat 60 64 W 9 6193 6138 4588 White 15
1 PM Sat 60 64 W 9 6193 6138 4588 White 15
2 PM Sat 60 63 W 9 5986 5908 4358 White 14
3 PM Sat 60 62 W 9 5776 5776 4226 White 13
4 PM Sat 59 59 W 12 5147 5147 3597 White 10
5 PM Sat 58 58 W 12 4937 4937 3387 White 9
6 PM Sat 55 55 W 12 4297 3346 1796 White 6
7 PM Sat 53 53 W 12 3505 1630 80 Blue 4
8 PM Sat 52 52 W 12 3358 1550 0 Blue 3
9 PM Sat 52 52 W 12 3358 1550 0 Blue 3
10 PM Sat 51 51 NW 2 2662 1550 0 Blue 2
11 PM Sat 51 51 NW 2 2662 1550 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Sun 50 50 NW 2 1658 1550 0 Blue 1
1 AM Sun 50 50 NW 2 1658 1550 0 Blue 1
2 AM Sun 49 49 NW 2 977 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 49 49 NW 2 977 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 49 49 E 4 977 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 48 48 E 4 886 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 48 48 E 4 886 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 49 49 E 4 977 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 55 55 E 4 4297 3346 1796 White 6
9 AM Sun 61 62 E 4 5776 5776 4226 White 13
10 AM Sun 65 69 NW 4 7228 7228 5678 White 20
11 AM Sun 67 71 NW 4 7638 7638 6088 White 22
12 Noon Sun 68 73 NW 4 8045 8045 6495 White 24
1 PM Sun 69 73 NW 4 8045 8045 6495 White 24
2 PM Sun 70 73 NW 4 8045 8045 6495 White 24
3 PM Sun 69 71 NW 4 7638 7638 6088 White 22
4 PM Sun 67 67 NW 10 6816 6816 5266 White 18
5 PM Sun 64 64 NW 10 6193 6138 4588 White 15
6 PM Sun 60 60 NW 10 5357 5357 3807 White 11
7 PM Sun 57 57 NW 10 4725 4725 3175 White 8
8 PM Sun 56 56 NW 10 4511 3492 1942 White 7
9 PM Sun 55 55 NW 10 4297 3346 1796 White 6
10 PM Sun 54 54 NE 4 4083 2550 1000 White 5
11 PM Sun 54 54 NE 4 4083 2550 1000 White 5
12 Midnight Mon 53 53 NE 4 3505 1630 80 Blue 4
1 AM Mon 52 52 NE 4 3358 1550 0 Blue 3
2 AM Mon 51 51 NE 4 2662 1550 0 Blue 2
3 AM Mon 51 51 NE 4 2662 1550 0 Blue 2
4 AM Mon 50 50 E 6 1658 1550 0 Blue 1
5 AM Mon 49 49 E 6 977 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 49 49 E 6 977 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 50 50 E 6 1658 1550 0 Blue 1
8 AM Mon 58 59 E 6 5147 5147 3597 White 10
9 AM Mon 66 68 E 6 7022 7022 5472 White 19
10 AM Mon 71 75 E 5 8452 8452 6902 White 26
11 AM Mon 74 79 E 5 9266 9266 7716 White 30
12 Noon Mon 75 80 E 5 9470 9470 7920 White 31
1 PM Mon 77 82 E 5 9877 9877 8327 White 33
2 PM Mon 78 81 E 5 9674 9674 8124 White 32
3 PM Mon 77 79 E 5 9266 9266 7716 White 30
4 PM Mon 75 76 N 1 8656 8656 7106 White 27
5 PM Mon 71 71 N 1 7638 7638 6088 White 22
6 PM Mon 65 65 N 1 6401 6369 4819 White 16
7 PM Mon 62 62 N 1 5776 5776 4226 White 13
8 PM Mon 60 60 N 1 5357 5357 3807 White 11
9 PM Mon 59 59 N 1 5147 5147 3597 White 10
10 PM Mon 58 58 E 4 4937 4937 3387 White 9
11 PM Mon 57 57 E 4 4725 4725 3175 White 8
12 Midnight Tue 56 56 E 4 4511 3492 1942 White 7
1 AM Tue 55 55 E 4 4297 3346 1796 White 6
2 AM Tue 53 53 E 4 3505 1630 80 Blue 4
3 AM Tue 53 53 E 4 3505 1630 80 Blue 4
4 AM Tue 53 53 E 6 3505 1630 80 Blue 4
5 AM Tue 51 51 E 6 2662 1550 0 Blue 2
6 AM Tue 51 51 E 6 2662 1550 0 Blue 2

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst