Detailed Predictions for: Otay Mesa
Launch Altitude (f): 1550
LZ Altitude (f): 600
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

25 MAR 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Mon 49 49 NE 3 600 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 49 49 NE 2 600 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 49 49 NE 2 600 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 51 51 E 1 600 1550 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 56 58 NW 1 1504 1550 0 Blue 2
10 AM Mon 60 63 NW 2 2049 1721 171 Blue 7
11 AM Mon 65 70 NW 7 2908 2480 930 Blue 14
12 Noon Mon 67 73 W 8 3266 2896 1346 Blue 17
1 PM Mon 69 75 W 8 3598 3155 1605 Blue 19
2 PM Mon 68 74 W 10 3420 3052 1502 Blue 18
3 PM Mon 68 72 W 10 3163 2747 1197 Blue 16
4 PM Mon 67 69 W 10 2754 2383 833 Blue 13
5 PM Mon 66 67 W 9 2485 2148 598 Blue 11
6 PM Mon 64 64 W 9 2152 1831 281 Blue 8
7 PM Mon 60 60 W 7 1725 1550 0 Blue 4
8 PM Mon 57 57 NW 3 1351 1550 0 Blue 1
9 PM Mon 56 56 NW 3 1151 1550 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 55 55 N 3 924 1550 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 53 53 N 3 600 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 53 53 N 5 600 1550 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 52 52 N 3 600 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 51 51 N 3 600 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 50 50 NE 3 600 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 50 50 NE 3 600 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 50 50 N 3 600 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 50 50 N 2 600 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 50 50 N 2 600 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 52 52 N 2 600 1550 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 57 58 N 3 1504 1550 0 Blue 2
10 AM Tue 61 63 NW 6 2049 1721 171 Blue 7
11 AM Tue 65 68 NW 8 2612 2253 703 Blue 12
12 Noon Tue 67 70 NW 9 2908 2480 930 Blue 14
1 PM Tue 69 72 W 12 3163 2747 1197 Blue 16
2 PM Tue 68 71 W 12 3060 2600 1050 Blue 15
3 PM Tue 68 70 W 12 2908 2480 930 Blue 14
4 PM Tue 67 68 NW 12 2612 2253 703 Blue 12
5 PM Tue 66 66 NW 10 2390 2045 495 Blue 10
6 PM Tue 64 64 NW 9 2152 1831 281 Blue 8
7 PM Tue 60 60 NW 7 1725 1550 0 Blue 4
8 PM Tue 58 58 NW 6 1504 1550 0 Blue 2
9 PM Tue 56 56 NW 6 1151 1550 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 56 56 N 5 1151 1550 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 54 54 N 5 743 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 53 53 N 5 600 1550 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 53 53 N 5 600 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 52 52 N 5 600 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 52 52 N 5 600 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 51 51 N 5 600 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 51 51 N 3 600 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 51 51 N 3 600 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 51 51 N 3 600 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 52 52 N 5 600 1550 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 56 56 NW 5 1151 1550 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 59 60 NW 5 1725 1550 0 Blue 4
11 AM Wed 62 64 NW 6 2152 1831 281 Blue 8
12 Noon Wed 64 67 NW 8 2485 2148 598 Blue 11
1 PM Wed 65 68 NW 9 2612 2253 703 Blue 12
2 PM Wed 64 67 NW 12 2485 2148 598 Blue 11
3 PM Wed 65 67 NW 13 2485 2148 598 Blue 11
4 PM Wed 64 65 W 14 2259 1940 390 Blue 9
5 PM Wed 63 63 W 14 2049 1721 171 Blue 7
6 PM Wed 61 61 NW 13 1835 1550 0 Blue 5
7 PM Wed 58 58 NW 9 1504 1550 0 Blue 2
8 PM Wed 56 56 NW 7 1151 1550 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 55 55 NW 6 924 1550 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 55 55 NW 6 924 1550 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 53 53 N 7 600 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 53 53 NW 7 600 1550 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 52 52 NW 7 600 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 52 52 NW 7 600 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 51 51 NW 7 600 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 51 51 N 7 600 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 51 51 N 6 600 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 51 51 N 6 600 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 51 51 N 6 600 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 52 52 N 3 600 1550 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 55 56 N 3 1151 1550 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 58 60 N 3 1725 1550 0 Blue 4
11 AM Thu 60 64 NW 10 2152 1831 281 Blue 8
12 Noon Thu 62 67 NW 10 2485 2148 598 Blue 11
1 PM Thu 63 69 NW 10 2754 2383 833 Blue 13
2 PM Thu 63 68 W 14 2612 2253 703 Blue 12
3 PM Thu 63 67 W 14 2485 2148 598 Blue 11
4 PM Thu 61 63 W 14 2049 1721 171 Blue 7
5 PM Thu 60 61 W 14 1835 1550 0 Blue 5
6 PM Thu 59 59 W 14 1614 1550 0 Blue 3
7 PM Thu 55 55 W 14 924 1550 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 53 53 NW 7 600 1550 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 52 52 NW 7 600 1550 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 51 51 NW 7 600 1550 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 50 50 N 5 600 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 49 49 N 5 600 1550 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 48 48 N 5 600 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 48 48 NE 3 600 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 47 47 NE 3 600 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 47 47 NE 3 600 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 47 47 NE 5 600 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 47 47 NE 5 600 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 47 47 NE 5 600 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 49 49 N 5 600 1550 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 54 55 N 5 924 1550 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 58 61 N 5 1835 1550 0 Blue 5
11 AM Fri 63 67 NW 8 2485 2148 598 Blue 11
12 Noon Fri 65 70 NW 8 2908 2480 930 Blue 14
1 PM Fri 67 73 NW 8 3266 2896 1346 Blue 17
2 PM Fri 67 72 W 12 3163 2747 1197 Blue 16
3 PM Fri 66 70 W 12 2908 2480 930 Blue 14
4 PM Fri 65 67 W 12 2485 2148 598 Blue 11
5 PM Fri 64 65 W 10 2259 1940 390 Blue 9
6 PM Fri 62 62 W 10 1945 1612 62 Blue 6
7 PM Fri 58 58 W 10 1504 1550 0 Blue 2
8 PM Fri 56 56 NW 5 1151 1550 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 54 54 NW 5 743 1550 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 54 54 NW 5 743 1550 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 52 52 N 3 600 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 51 51 N 3 600 1550 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 51 51 N 3 600 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 50 50 NE 5 600 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 50 50 NE 5 600 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 49 49 NE 5 600 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 49 49 E 7 600 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 49 49 E 7 600 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 49 49 E 7 600 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 51 51 E 8 600 1550 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 56 57 E 8 1351 1550 0 Blue 1
10 AM Sat 61 64 E 8 2152 1831 281 Blue 8
11 AM Sat 65 69 NW 8 2754 2383 833 Blue 13
12 Noon Sat 68 73 NW 8 3266 2896 1346 Blue 17
1 PM Sat 70 76 NW 8 3775 3257 1707 Blue 20
2 PM Sat 70 75 NW 10 3598 3155 1605 Blue 19
3 PM Sat 70 74 NW 10 3420 3052 1502 Blue 18
4 PM Sat 68 70 NW 10 2908 2480 930 Blue 14
5 PM Sat 67 68 N 10 2612 2253 703 Blue 12
6 PM Sat 64 64 N 10 2152 1831 281 Blue 8
7 PM Sat 60 60 N 10 1725 1550 0 Blue 4
8 PM Sat 57 57 NW 3 1351 1550 0 Blue 1
9 PM Sat 55 55 NW 3 924 1550 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 55 55 NW 3 924 1550 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 53 53 NE 3 600 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 52 52 NE 3 600 1550 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 51 51 NE 3 600 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 50 50 E 8 600 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 50 50 E 8 600 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 49 49 E 8 600 1550 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst