Detailed Predictions for: Otay Mesa
Launch Altitude (f): 1550
LZ Altitude (f): 600
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

20 JUL 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Fri 65 65 W 1 525 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 65 65 W 1 525 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 66 66 W 1 1004 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 68 69 W 3 1488 1550 0 Blue 2
9 AM Fri 70 72 W 3 1666 1550 0 Blue 5
10 AM Fri 73 76 W 5 2048 1746 196 Blue 9
11 AM Fri 75 80 W 8 2452 2167 617 Blue 13
12 Noon Fri 77 83 W 9 2855 2448 898 Blue 16
1 PM Fri 78 84 W 9 3034 2537 987 Blue 17
2 PM Fri 78 84 W 12 3034 2537 987 Blue 17
3 PM Fri 79 84 W 12 3034 2537 987 Blue 17
4 PM Fri 77 80 W 12 2452 2167 617 Blue 13
5 PM Fri 76 78 W 10 2272 1919 369 Blue 11
6 PM Fri 73 74 W 10 1834 1605 55 Blue 7
7 PM Fri 70 70 W 9 1547 1550 0 Blue 3
8 PM Fri 68 68 NW 7 1428 1550 0 Blue 1
9 PM Fri 66 66 NW 6 1004 1550 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 66 66 NW 6 1004 1550 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 65 65 NW 3 525 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 65 65 NW 5 525 1550 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 65 65 NW 5 525 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 65 65 NW 5 525 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 65 65 NW 5 525 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 65 65 NW 5 525 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 65 65 NW 5 525 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 65 65 NW 5 525 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 65 65 NW 5 525 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 66 66 NW 5 1004 1550 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 69 69 NW 6 1488 1550 0 Blue 2
10 AM Sat 72 73 NW 6 1748 1550 0 Blue 6
11 AM Sat 75 80 W 9 2452 2167 617 Blue 13
12 Noon Sat 77 83 W 10 2855 2448 898 Blue 16
1 PM Sat 77 84 W 10 3034 2537 987 Blue 17
2 PM Sat 78 84 W 13 3034 2537 987 Blue 17
3 PM Sat 77 82 W 12 2676 2358 808 Blue 15
4 PM Sat 76 80 W 12 2452 2167 617 Blue 13
5 PM Sat 74 76 W 10 2048 1746 196 Blue 9
6 PM Sat 72 73 W 10 1748 1550 0 Blue 6
7 PM Sat 70 70 W 10 1547 1550 0 Blue 3
8 PM Sat 68 68 NW 8 1428 1550 0 Blue 1
9 PM Sat 68 68 NW 8 1428 1550 0 Blue 1
10 PM Sat 68 68 NW 8 1428 1550 0 Blue 1
11 PM Sat 68 68 NW 6 1428 1550 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Sun 68 68 NW 6 1428 1550 0 Blue 1
1 AM Sun 67 67 NW 6 1369 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 66 66 N 5 1004 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 66 66 N 5 1004 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 65 65 N 5 525 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 65 65 N 5 525 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 65 65 N 5 525 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 66 66 N 6 1004 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 68 68 N 7 1428 1550 0 Blue 1
9 AM Sun 70 71 NW 8 1607 1550 0 Blue 4
10 AM Sun 73 75 NW 9 1923 1664 114 Blue 8
11 AM Sun 76 82 NW 12 2676 2358 808 Blue 15
12 Noon Sun 79 87 NW 12 3685 3021 1471 Blue 20
1 PM Sun 80 88 NW 12 3964 3198 1648 Blue 21
2 PM Sun 80 87 NW 14 3685 3021 1471 Blue 20
3 PM Sun 81 87 NW 13 3685 3021 1471 Blue 20
4 PM Sun 80 84 NW 13 3034 2537 987 Blue 17
5 PM Sun 78 80 NW 13 2452 2167 617 Blue 13
6 PM Sun 76 77 NW 12 2173 1831 281 Blue 10
7 PM Sun 74 74 NW 10 1834 1605 55 Blue 7
8 PM Sun 72 72 W 9 1666 1550 0 Blue 5
9 PM Sun 71 71 NW 7 1607 1550 0 Blue 4
10 PM Sun 70 70 NW 6 1547 1550 0 Blue 3
11 PM Sun 68 68 NW 3 1428 1550 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Mon 67 67 NW 2 1369 1550 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 67 67 W 2 1369 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 66 66 W 1 1004 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 65 65 NW 1 525 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 65 65 N 1 525 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 65 65 N 1 525 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 66 66 N 1 1004 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 68 68 N 1 1428 1550 0 Blue 1
8 AM Mon 71 71 W 3 1607 1550 0 Blue 4
9 AM Mon 76 77 W 3 2173 1831 281 Blue 10
10 AM Mon 80 82 W 3 2676 2358 808 Blue 15
11 AM Mon 84 91 W 10 4559 3936 2386 Blue 24
12 Noon Mon 87 95 W 10 5608 4696 3146 Blue 28
1 PM Mon 88 96 W 10 5879 5025 3475 Blue 29
2 PM Mon 89 97 W 10 6148 5297 3747 Blue 30
3 PM Mon 90 96 W 10 5879 5025 3475 Blue 29
4 PM Mon 90 94 W 10 5336 4541 2991 Blue 27
5 PM Mon 88 90 W 10 4403 3659 2109 Blue 23
6 PM Mon 85 86 W 10 3404 2843 1293 Blue 19
7 PM Mon 80 80 W 10 2452 2167 617 Blue 13
8 PM Mon 76 76 NW 6 2048 1746 196 Blue 9
9 PM Mon 73 73 NW 6 1748 1550 0 Blue 6
10 PM Mon 71 71 NW 6 1607 1550 0 Blue 4
11 PM Mon 71 71 NW 2 1607 1550 0 Blue 4
12 Midnight Tue 71 71 NW 2 1607 1550 0 Blue 4
1 AM Tue 72 72 NW 2 1666 1550 0 Blue 5
2 AM Tue 71 71 S 1 1607 1550 0 Blue 4
3 AM Tue 70 70 S 1 1547 1550 0 Blue 3
4 AM Tue 68 68 S 1 1428 1550 0 Blue 1
5 AM Tue 67 67 N 1 1369 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 68 68 N 1 1428 1550 0 Blue 1
7 AM Tue 71 71 N 1 1607 1550 0 Blue 4
8 AM Tue 75 76 W 3 2048 1746 196 Blue 9
9 AM Tue 80 83 W 3 2855 2448 898 Blue 16
10 AM Tue 85 89 W 3 4241 3381 1831 Blue 22
11 AM Tue 89 95 W 9 5608 4696 3146 Blue 28
12 Noon Tue 92 100 W 9 6815 6103 4553 Blue 33
1 PM Tue 94 102 W 9 7644 6632 5082 Blue 35
2 PM Tue 95 102 W 12 7644 6632 5082 Blue 35
3 PM Tue 95 101 W 12 6980 6368 4818 Blue 34
4 PM Tue 93 97 W 12 6148 5297 3747 Blue 30
5 PM Tue 91 93 W 9 5062 4386 2836 Blue 26
6 PM Tue 87 88 W 9 3964 3198 1648 Blue 21
7 PM Tue 83 83 W 9 2855 2448 898 Blue 16
8 PM Tue 79 79 NW 6 2362 2043 493 Blue 12
9 PM Tue 78 78 NW 6 2272 1919 369 Blue 11
10 PM Tue 77 77 NW 6 2173 1831 281 Blue 10
11 PM Tue 77 77 NW 1 2173 1831 281 Blue 10
12 Midnight Wed 76 76 NW 1 2048 1746 196 Blue 9
1 AM Wed 76 76 NW 1 2048 1746 196 Blue 9
2 AM Wed 75 75 N 1 1923 1664 114 Blue 8
3 AM Wed 74 74 N 1 1834 1605 55 Blue 7
4 AM Wed 73 73 N 1 1748 1550 0 Blue 6
5 AM Wed 73 73 NE 1 1748 1550 0 Blue 6
6 AM Wed 75 75 NE 1 1923 1664 114 Blue 8
7 AM Wed 78 78 NE 1 2272 1919 369 Blue 11
8 AM Wed 82 83 W 3 2855 2448 898 Blue 16
9 AM Wed 86 88 W 3 3964 3198 1648 Blue 21
10 AM Wed 90 94 W 3 5336 4541 2991 Blue 27
11 AM Wed 93 99 W 9 6675 5836 4286 Blue 32
12 Noon Wed 94 102 W 9 7644 6632 5082 Blue 35
1 PM Wed 95 103 W 9 8277 6788 5238 Blue 36
2 PM Wed 95 102 W 12 7644 6632 5082 Blue 35
3 PM Wed 95 101 W 12 6980 6368 4818 Blue 34
4 PM Wed 94 98 W 12 6416 5567 4017 Blue 31
5 PM Wed 92 94 W 8 5336 4541 2991 Blue 27
6 PM Wed 88 89 W 8 4241 3381 1831 Blue 22
7 PM Wed 83 83 W 8 2855 2448 898 Blue 16
8 PM Wed 79 79 NW 3 2362 2043 493 Blue 12
9 PM Wed 77 77 NW 3 2173 1831 281 Blue 10
10 PM Wed 76 76 NW 3 2048 1746 196 Blue 9
11 PM Wed 75 75 NW 2 1923 1664 114 Blue 8
12 Midnight Thu 75 75 NW 2 1923 1664 114 Blue 8
1 AM Thu 74 74 NW 2 1834 1605 55 Blue 7
2 AM Thu 74 74 E 1 1834 1605 55 Blue 7
3 AM Thu 73 73 E 1 1748 1550 0 Blue 6
4 AM Thu 72 72 E 1 1666 1550 0 Blue 5

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst