Detailed Predictions for: Otay Mesa
Launch Altitude (f): 1550
LZ Altitude (f): 600
Sounding

Station:

 KNKX

Date/Time:

 3 SEP 2010

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
5 AM Fri 67 67 N 2 1226 1550 0 Blue 8
6 AM Fri 68 68 N 2 1264 1550 0 Blue 9
7 AM Fri 70 70 N 2 1305 1550 0 Blue 11
8 AM Fri 72 72 NW 2 1338 1550 0 Blue 13
9 AM Fri 78 80 NW 2 1471 1550 0 Blue 21
10 AM Fri 83 86 NW 2 1918 1665 115 Blue 27
11 AM Fri 87 93 NW 9 2357 2162 612 Blue 33
12 Noon Fri 88 95 NW 9 2836 2269 719 Blue 35
1 PM Fri 88 95 NW 9 2836 2269 719 Blue 35
2 PM Fri 87 94 NW 13 2543 2216 666 Blue 34
3 PM Fri 86 91 NW 13 2218 2055 505 Blue 31
4 PM Fri 86 89 NW 13 2110 1915 365 Blue 29
5 PM Fri 83 85 NW 13 1835 1582 32 Blue 26
6 PM Fri 79 79 NW 13 1448 1550 0 Blue 20
7 PM Fri 74 74 NW 13 1368 1550 0 Blue 15
8 PM Fri 69 69 NW 7 1284 1550 0 Blue 10
9 PM Fri 67 67 NW 7 1226 1550 0 Blue 8
10 PM Fri 67 67 NW 7 1226 1550 0 Blue 8
11 PM Fri 67 67 N 2 1226 1550 0 Blue 8
12 Midnight Sat 66 66 N 2 1180 1550 0 Blue 7
1 AM Sat 66 66 N 2 1180 1550 0 Blue 7
2 AM Sat 65 65 N 2 1134 1550 0 Blue 6
3 AM Sat 65 65 N 2 1134 1550 0 Blue 6
4 AM Sat 64 64 N 2 1089 1550 0 Blue 5
5 AM Sat 65 65 N 2 1134 1550 0 Blue 6
6 AM Sat 66 66 N 2 1180 1550 0 Blue 7
7 AM Sat 69 69 N 2 1284 1550 0 Blue 10
8 AM Sat 72 72 NW 2 1338 1550 0 Blue 13
9 AM Sat 78 80 NW 2 1471 1550 0 Blue 21
10 AM Sat 85 89 NW 2 2110 1915 365 Blue 29
11 AM Sat 90 96 W 9 3147 2348 798 Blue 36
12 Noon Sat 89 96 W 9 3147 2348 798 Blue 36
1 PM Sat 90 97 W 9 3455 2533 983 Blue 37
2 PM Sat 89 96 W 14 3147 2348 798 Blue 36
3 PM Sat 87 92 W 14 2272 2108 558 Blue 32
4 PM Sat 85 88 W 14 2057 1832 282 Blue 28
5 PM Sat 82 84 NW 13 1751 1550 0 Blue 25
6 PM Sat 77 77 NW 13 1413 1550 0 Blue 18
7 PM Sat 72 72 NW 13 1338 1550 0 Blue 13
8 PM Sat 68 68 NW 5 1264 1550 0 Blue 9
9 PM Sat 67 67 NW 5 1226 1550 0 Blue 8
10 PM Sat 67 67 NW 5 1226 1550 0 Blue 8
11 PM Sat 67 67 NW 1 1226 1550 0 Blue 8
12 Midnight Sun 66 66 NW 1 1180 1550 0 Blue 7
1 AM Sun 65 65 NW 1 1134 1550 0 Blue 6
2 AM Sun 65 65 W 1 1134 1550 0 Blue 6
3 AM Sun 64 64 W 1 1089 1550 0 Blue 5
4 AM Sun 63 63 W 1 1043 1550 0 Blue 4
5 AM Sun 63 63 S 1 1043 1550 0 Blue 4
6 AM Sun 64 64 S 1 1089 1550 0 Blue 5
7 AM Sun 66 66 S 1 1180 1550 0 Blue 7
8 AM Sun 69 69 S 1 1284 1550 0 Blue 10
9 AM Sun 73 74 S 1 1368 1550 0 Blue 15
10 AM Sun 77 80 S 1 1471 1550 0 Blue 21
11 AM Sun 80 86 W 9 1918 1665 115 Blue 27
12 Noon Sun 81 88 W 9 2057 1832 282 Blue 28
1 PM Sun 80 87 W 9 2002 1748 198 Blue 28
2 PM Sun 79 86 W 9 1918 1665 115 Blue 27
3 PM Sun 78 83 W 9 1667 1550 0 Blue 24
4 PM Sun 76 79 W 9 1448 1550 0 Blue 20
5 PM Sun 74 76 W 12 1398 1550 0 Blue 17
6 PM Sun 74 74 W 12 1368 1550 0 Blue 15
7 PM Sun 68 68 W 12 1264 1550 0 Blue 9
8 PM Sun 64 64 W 12 1089 1550 0 Blue 5
9 PM Sun 62 62 W 12 998 1550 0 Blue 3
10 PM Sun 61 61 W 12 954 1550 0 Blue 2
11 PM Sun 61 61 SE 1 954 1550 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Mon 60 60 SE 1 909 1550 0 Blue 1
1 AM Mon 59 59 SE 1 734 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 59 59 SE 1 734 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 59 59 SE 1 734 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 58 58 SE 1 440 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 58 58 E 1 440 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 58 58 E 1 440 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 58 58 E 1 440 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 61 61 E 1 954 1550 0 Blue 2
9 AM Mon 65 66 E 1 1180 1550 0 Blue 7
10 AM Mon 69 70 E 1 1305 1550 0 Blue 11
11 AM Mon 72 78 W 10 1428 1550 0 Blue 19
12 Noon Mon 74 81 W 10 1500 1550 0 Blue 22
1 PM Mon 75 82 W 10 1584 1550 0 Blue 23
2 PM Mon 74 81 W 10 1500 1550 0 Blue 22
3 PM Mon 74 79 W 10 1448 1550 0 Blue 20
4 PM Mon 73 76 W 10 1398 1550 0 Blue 17
5 PM Mon 72 73 W 9 1353 1550 0 Blue 14
6 PM Mon 69 69 W 9 1284 1550 0 Blue 10
7 PM Mon 65 65 W 9 1134 1550 0 Blue 6
8 PM Mon 62 62 W 9 998 1550 0 Blue 3
9 PM Mon 60 60 W 9 909 1550 0 Blue 1
10 PM Mon 59 59 W 9 734 1550 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 59 59 NW 2 734 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 58 58 NW 2 440 1550 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 58 58 NW 2 440 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 58 58 NW 2 440 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 58 58 NW 2 440 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 57 57 NW 2 440 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 57 57 E 2 440 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 57 57 E 2 440 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 57 57 E 2 440 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 60 60 E 2 909 1550 0 Blue 1
9 AM Tue 63 63 E 2 1043 1550 0 Blue 4
10 AM Tue 66 66 E 2 1180 1550 0 Blue 7
11 AM Tue 69 74 W 9 1368 1550 0 Blue 15
12 Noon Tue 71 77 W 9 1413 1550 0 Blue 18
1 PM Tue 72 79 W 9 1448 1550 0 Blue 20
2 PM Tue 71 77 W 9 1413 1550 0 Blue 18
3 PM Tue 71 76 W 9 1398 1550 0 Blue 17
4 PM Tue 71 74 W 9 1368 1550 0 Blue 15
5 PM Tue 69 70 W 9 1305 1550 0 Blue 11
6 PM Tue 67 67 W 9 1226 1550 0 Blue 8
7 PM Tue 63 63 W 9 1043 1550 0 Blue 4
8 PM Tue 60 60 W 9 909 1550 0 Blue 1
9 PM Tue 59 59 W 9 734 1550 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 58 58 W 9 440 1550 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 58 58 NE 1 440 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 57 57 NE 1 440 1550 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 57 57 NE 1 440 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 57 57 NE 1 440 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 57 57 NE 1 440 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 56 56 NE 1 440 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 56 56 E 1 440 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 56 56 E 1 440 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 56 56 E 1 440 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 59 59 E 1 734 1550 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 62 62 E 1 998 1550 0 Blue 3
10 AM Wed 65 65 E 1 1134 1550 0 Blue 6
11 AM Wed 68 73 W 9 1353 1550 0 Blue 14
12 Noon Wed 69 75 W 9 1383 1550 0 Blue 16
1 PM Wed 70 76 W 9 1398 1550 0 Blue 17
2 PM Wed 69 75 W 9 1383 1550 0 Blue 16
3 PM Wed 69 74 W 9 1368 1550 0 Blue 15
4 PM Wed 69 72 W 9 1338 1550 0 Blue 13
5 PM Wed 68 69 W 10 1284 1550 0 Blue 10
6 PM Wed 65 65 W 10 1134 1550 0 Blue 6
7 PM Wed 62 62 W 10 998 1550 0 Blue 3
8 PM Wed 59 59 W 10 734 1550 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 58 58 W 10 440 1550 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 57 57 W 10 440 1550 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 57 57 NW 1 440 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 56 56 NW 1 440 1550 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 56 56 NW 1 440 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 56 56 NW 1 440 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 56 56 NW 1 440 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 55 55 NW 1 440 1550 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst