Detailed Predictions for: Otay Mesa
Launch Altitude (f): 1550
LZ Altitude (f): 600
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Wed 51 51 E 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Wed 51 51 SE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Wed 51 51 E 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Wed 51 51 E 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Wed 54 54 SE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Wed 58 58 SE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Wed 62 62 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Wed 64 64 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Wed 66 66 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Wed 67 67 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Wed 66 66 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Wed 66 66 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Wed 65 65 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Wed 61 61 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Wed 58 58 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Wed 57 57 S 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Wed 56 56 SE 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Wed 55 55 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Wed 54 54 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Wed 54 54 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Thu 53 53 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Thu 53 53 E 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Thu 52 52 E 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Thu 52 52 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Thu 52 52 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Thu 53 53 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 52 52 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 52 52 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 54 54 SE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 56 56 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 59 59 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 61 61 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 62 62 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 62 62 SW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 62 62 SW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 62 62 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 61 61 SW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 58 58 SW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 55 55 SW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 54 54 SW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 54 54 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 53 53 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 52 52 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 52 52 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 51 51 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 51 51 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 50 50 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 50 50 NW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 50 50 W 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 50 50 NW 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 50 50 NW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 50 50 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 52 52 NW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 54 54 W 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 57 58 W 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 59 61 W 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 60 62 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 60 62 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 60 61 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 60 60 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 59 59 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 56 56 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 53 53 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 52 52 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 52 52 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 51 51 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 50 50 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 50 50 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 49 49 NE 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 49 49 NE 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 48 48 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 48 48 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 48 48 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 48 48 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 48 48 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 48 48 NE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 52 52 NE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 57 58 NE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 62 64 W 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 65 67 W 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 68 71 W 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 69 71 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 69 71 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 68 69 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 66 66 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 62 62 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 58 58 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 57 57 E 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 56 56 E 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 55 55 E 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 54 54 E 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 53 53 E 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 53 53 E 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 52 52 E 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 52 52 E 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 52 52 E 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 51 51 E 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 52 52 E 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 51 51 E 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 51 51 E 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 54 54 E 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 59 60 E 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 64 65 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 66 68 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 69 71 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 70 72 NW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 70 71 NW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 69 69 NW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 67 67 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 62 62 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 57 57 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 56 56 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 55 55 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 54 54 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 52 52 E 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 52 52 E 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 51 51 E 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 50 50 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 50 50 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 50 50 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 49 49 NE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 50 50 NE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 49 49 NE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 49 49 E 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 52 52 E 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 56 57 E 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 60 62 E 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 63 65 E 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 65 68 E 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 66 68 E 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 66 68 E 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 65 66 E 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 63 63 E 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 59 59 E 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 55 55 E 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 54 54 E 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 53 53 E 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 52 52 E 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 51 51 E 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 50 50 E 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 50 50 E 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 49 49 E 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 49 49 E 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 48 48 E 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst