Detailed Predictions for: Otay Mesa
Launch Altitude (f): 1550
LZ Altitude (f): 600
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

18 MAY 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 51 51 E 2 771 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 52 52 E 3 771 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 52 52 E 2 771 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 54 55 SW 1 819 1550 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 58 61 W 2 2489 1754 204 Blue 5
10 AM Sat 61 66 W 5 3960 2875 1325 Blue 10
11 AM Sat 64 69 W 9 4174 3936 2386 Blue 13
12 Noon Sat 67 73 W 10 5132 4316 2766 Blue 17
1 PM Sat 69 75 W 10 5353 5009 3459 Blue 19
2 PM Sat 68 74 W 12 5240 4686 3136 Blue 18
3 PM Sat 69 73 W 12 5132 4316 2766 Blue 17
4 PM Sat 68 71 W 12 4734 4121 2571 Blue 15
5 PM Sat 67 67 W 10 4077 3146 1596 Blue 11
6 PM Sat 65 65 W 10 3580 2669 1119 Blue 9
7 PM Sat 61 61 W 9 2489 1754 204 Blue 5
8 PM Sat 59 59 W 7 2033 1550 0 Blue 3
9 PM Sat 58 58 W 6 1762 1550 0 Blue 2
10 PM Sat 57 57 W 5 1490 1550 0 Blue 1
11 PM Sat 56 56 W 3 1195 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 56 56 W 5 1195 1550 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 56 56 W 5 1195 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 56 56 W 3 1195 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 56 56 W 2 1195 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 55 55 W 2 819 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 55 55 W 1 819 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 55 55 W 2 819 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 56 56 SW 3 1195 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 56 56 S 5 1195 1550 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 58 58 SW 7 1762 1550 0 Blue 2
10 AM Sun 60 60 SW 8 2332 1550 0 Blue 4
11 AM Sun 61 62 SW 9 2682 2022 472 Blue 6
12 Noon Sun 62 63 SW 12 2889 2324 774 Blue 7
1 PM Sun 63 64 SW 13 3178 2481 931 Blue 8
2 PM Sun 62 63 W 14 2889 2324 774 Blue 7
3 PM Sun 63 64 W 14 3178 2481 931 Blue 8
4 PM Sun 63 63 W 15 2889 2324 774 Blue 7
5 PM Sun 62 62 W 15 2682 2022 472 Blue 6
6 PM Sun 60 60 W 15 2332 1550 0 Blue 4
7 PM Sun 58 58 W 14 1762 1550 0 Blue 2
8 PM Sun 56 56 W 14 1195 1550 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 56 56 W 13 1195 1550 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 55 55 W 13 819 1550 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 55 55 W 13 819 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 55 55 W 13 819 1550 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 55 55 W 13 819 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 55 55 W 13 819 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 54 54 W 13 771 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 54 54 W 14 771 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 54 54 W 14 771 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 54 54 W 15 771 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 55 55 W 15 819 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 56 56 W 15 1195 1550 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 58 58 W 16 1762 1550 0 Blue 2
10 AM Mon 59 59 W 16 2033 1550 0 Blue 3
11 AM Mon 61 65 W 16 3580 2669 1119 Blue 9
12 Noon Mon 62 66 W 16 3960 2875 1325 Blue 10
1 PM Mon 63 67 W 16 4077 3146 1596 Blue 11
2 PM Mon 62 66 W 16 3960 2875 1325 Blue 10
3 PM Mon 63 66 W 15 3960 2875 1325 Blue 10
4 PM Mon 63 65 W 15 3580 2669 1119 Blue 9
5 PM Mon 62 63 W 14 2889 2324 774 Blue 7
6 PM Mon 60 60 W 13 2332 1550 0 Blue 4
7 PM Mon 58 58 W 10 1762 1550 0 Blue 2
8 PM Mon 56 56 W 9 1195 1550 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 56 56 W 8 1195 1550 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 55 55 W 7 819 1550 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 55 55 W 6 819 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 55 55 W 5 819 1550 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 55 55 W 5 819 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 55 55 W 5 819 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 54 54 W 5 771 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 54 54 W 6 771 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 54 54 W 6 771 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 54 54 W 6 771 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 54 54 W 6 771 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 55 55 W 12 819 1550 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 57 57 W 12 1490 1550 0 Blue 1
10 AM Tue 58 58 W 12 1762 1550 0 Blue 2
11 AM Tue 59 60 W 15 2332 1550 0 Blue 4
12 Noon Tue 60 61 W 15 2489 1754 204 Blue 5
1 PM Tue 61 62 W 15 2682 2022 472 Blue 6
2 PM Tue 61 62 W 18 2682 2022 472 Blue 6
3 PM Tue 61 62 W 18 2682 2022 472 Blue 6
4 PM Tue 61 61 W 18 2489 1754 204 Blue 5
5 PM Tue 60 60 W 20 2332 1550 0 Blue 4
6 PM Tue 58 58 W 20 1762 1550 0 Blue 2
7 PM Tue 56 56 W 20 1195 1550 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 54 54 W 16 771 1550 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 54 54 W 16 771 1550 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 53 53 W 16 771 1550 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 53 53 W 10 771 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 53 53 W 10 771 1550 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 53 53 W 10 771 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 53 53 W 7 771 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 52 52 W 7 771 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 52 52 W 7 771 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 52 52 SW 5 771 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 52 52 SW 5 771 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 53 53 SW 5 771 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 54 54 SE 6 771 1550 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 56 56 SE 6 1195 1550 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 58 58 SE 6 1762 1550 0 Blue 2
11 AM Wed 60 63 SW 6 2889 2324 774 Blue 7
12 Noon Wed 61 65 SW 6 3580 2669 1119 Blue 9
1 PM Wed 62 66 SW 6 3960 2875 1325 Blue 10
2 PM Wed 62 65 W 14 3580 2669 1119 Blue 9
3 PM Wed 62 65 W 14 3580 2669 1119 Blue 9
4 PM Wed 62 64 W 14 3178 2481 931 Blue 8
5 PM Wed 61 62 W 12 2682 2022 472 Blue 6
6 PM Wed 59 59 W 12 2033 1550 0 Blue 3
7 PM Wed 57 57 W 12 1490 1550 0 Blue 1
8 PM Wed 55 55 W 5 819 1550 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 55 55 W 5 819 1550 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 54 54 W 5 771 1550 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 54 54 SW 2 771 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 54 54 SW 2 771 1550 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 54 54 SW 2 771 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 54 54 SE 3 771 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 54 54 SE 3 771 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 53 53 SE 3 771 1550 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 53 53 E 3 771 1550 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 53 53 E 3 771 1550 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 54 54 E 3 771 1550 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 56 57 W 3 1490 1550 0 Blue 1
9 AM Thu 59 61 W 3 2489 1754 204 Blue 5
10 AM Thu 61 64 W 3 3178 2481 931 Blue 8
11 AM Thu 64 69 W 8 4174 3936 2386 Blue 13
12 Noon Thu 66 72 W 8 5024 4169 2619 Blue 16
1 PM Thu 68 74 W 8 5240 4686 3136 Blue 18
2 PM Thu 68 73 W 12 5132 4316 2766 Blue 17
3 PM Thu 68 72 W 12 5024 4169 2619 Blue 16
4 PM Thu 67 70 W 12 4360 4064 2514 Blue 14
5 PM Thu 66 67 SW 9 4077 3146 1596 Blue 11
6 PM Thu 64 64 SW 9 3178 2481 931 Blue 8
7 PM Thu 60 60 SW 9 2332 1550 0 Blue 4
8 PM Thu 58 58 W 6 1762 1550 0 Blue 2
9 PM Thu 56 56 W 6 1195 1550 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 56 56 W 6 1195 1550 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 56 56 S 1 1195 1550 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 55 55 S 1 819 1550 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 55 55 S 1 819 1550 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 55 55 S 1 819 1550 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 55 55 S 1 819 1550 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 54 54 S 1 771 1550 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst