Detailed Predictions for: Horse Canyon
Launch Altitude (f): 4540
LZ Altitude (f): 3300
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

18 SEP 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Wed 56 56 NW 6 3123 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 58 58 NW 5 3123 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 61 61 NW 5 3123 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 64 64 NW 3 3165 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 68 70 W 6 4392 4540 0 Blue 3
10 AM Wed 71 74 SW 7 5167 4644 104 Blue 7
11 AM Wed 74 79 SW 9 6238 5372 832 Blue 12
12 Noon Wed 76 82 SW 12 7828 6189 1649 Blue 15
1 PM Wed 78 84 SW 12 8802 7249 2709 Blue 17
2 PM Wed 78 84 W 14 8802 7249 2709 Blue 17
3 PM Wed 79 83 W 14 8329 6727 2187 Blue 16
4 PM Wed 77 80 W 14 6784 5478 938 Blue 13
5 PM Wed 74 75 W 14 5273 4903 363 Blue 8
6 PM Wed 70 70 W 12 4392 4540 0 Blue 3
7 PM Wed 66 66 W 8 3451 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 62 62 N 6 3123 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 60 60 NW 6 3123 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 59 59 NW 6 3123 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 59 59 NW 6 3123 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 58 58 NW 6 3123 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 56 56 NW 6 3123 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 55 55 NW 7 3123 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 53 53 NW 7 3123 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 52 52 NW 8 3123 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 52 52 NW 8 3123 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 54 54 NW 7 3123 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 57 57 NW 6 3123 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 61 61 NW 6 3123 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 65 67 NW 8 3598 4540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 68 71 W 10 4654 4540 0 Blue 4
11 AM Thu 71 76 W 13 5379 5056 516 Blue 9
12 Noon Thu 73 79 W 15 6238 5372 832 Blue 12
1 PM Thu 73 80 W 16 6784 5478 938 Blue 13
2 PM Thu 73 79 W 17 6238 5372 832 Blue 12
3 PM Thu 73 78 W 17 5831 5267 727 Blue 11
4 PM Thu 72 75 W 17 5273 4903 363 Blue 8
5 PM Thu 69 70 W 16 4392 4540 0 Blue 3
6 PM Thu 65 65 W 14 3308 4540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 61 61 NW 12 3123 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 58 58 NW 9 3123 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 56 56 NW 9 3123 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 55 55 NW 8 3123 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 54 54 NW 8 3123 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 53 53 NW 8 3123 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 52 52 NW 8 3123 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 50 50 NW 8 3123 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 49 49 NW 8 3123 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 49 49 N 8 3123 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 50 50 N 8 3123 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 53 53 N 7 3123 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 57 57 N 6 3123 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 62 62 N 5 3123 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 66 68 NE 5 3864 4540 0 Blue 1
10 AM Fri 71 75 SE 6 5273 4903 363 Blue 8
11 AM Fri 74 79 S 7 6238 5372 832 Blue 12
12 Noon Fri 76 82 SE 8 7828 6189 1649 Blue 15
1 PM Fri 78 84 E 9 8802 7249 2709 Blue 17
2 PM Fri 79 85 E 10 9018 7757 3217 Blue 18
3 PM Fri 79 83 E 9 8329 6727 2187 Blue 16
4 PM Fri 80 83 E 9 8329 6727 2187 Blue 16
5 PM Fri 78 79 E 8 6238 5372 832 Blue 12
6 PM Fri 74 74 E 7 5167 4644 104 Blue 7
7 PM Fri 70 70 E 6 4392 4540 0 Blue 3
8 PM Fri 66 66 E 5 3451 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 64 64 E 5 3165 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 64 64 NE 5 3165 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 64 64 NE 5 3165 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 63 63 NE 6 3123 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 62 62 E 6 3123 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 60 60 E 7 3123 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 59 59 E 8 3123 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 58 58 E 8 3123 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 58 58 E 9 3123 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 60 60 E 9 3123 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 63 63 E 9 3123 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 67 67 NE 9 3598 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 71 73 NE 9 5062 4540 0 Blue 6
10 AM Sat 74 77 NE 9 5497 5161 621 Blue 10
11 AM Sat 77 82 E 10 7828 6189 1649 Blue 15
12 Noon Sat 79 85 E 10 9018 7757 3217 Blue 18
1 PM Sat 80 86 E 10 9234 8252 3712 Blue 19
2 PM Sat 81 87 E 12 9449 8735 4195 Blue 20
3 PM Sat 81 85 E 12 9018 7757 3217 Blue 18
4 PM Sat 81 84 E 12 8802 7249 2709 Blue 17
5 PM Sat 81 82 E 8 7828 6189 1649 Blue 15
6 PM Sat 78 78 E 8 5831 5267 727 Blue 11
7 PM Sat 74 74 E 8 5167 4644 104 Blue 7
8 PM Sat 71 71 E 7 4654 4540 0 Blue 4
9 PM Sat 69 69 E 7 4129 4540 0 Blue 2
10 PM Sat 67 67 E 7 3598 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 65 65 E 7 3308 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 64 64 E 7 3165 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 62 62 E 7 3123 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 61 61 E 8 3123 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 60 60 E 8 3123 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 60 60 E 8 3123 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 61 61 E 9 3123 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 63 63 E 9 3123 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 66 66 E 9 3451 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 69 69 E 7 4129 4540 0 Blue 2
9 AM Sun 73 74 E 7 5167 4644 104 Blue 7
10 AM Sun 77 80 E 7 6784 5478 938 Blue 13
11 AM Sun 80 84 S 9 8802 7249 2709 Blue 17
12 Noon Sun 83 88 S 9 10120 8980 4440 Blue 21
1 PM Sun 84 89 S 9 11142 9194 4654 Blue 22
2 PM Sun 83 88 SW 13 10120 8980 4440 Blue 21
3 PM Sun 84 88 SW 13 10120 8980 4440 Blue 21
4 PM Sun 82 84 SW 13 8802 7249 2709 Blue 17
5 PM Sun 80 81 SW 10 7314 5806 1266 Blue 14
6 PM Sun 77 77 SW 10 5497 5161 621 Blue 10
7 PM Sun 73 73 SW 10 5062 4540 0 Blue 6
8 PM Sun 69 69 W 5 4129 4540 0 Blue 2
9 PM Sun 67 67 W 5 3598 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 65 65 W 5 3308 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 64 64 W 5 3165 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 63 63 W 5 3123 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 62 62 W 5 3123 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 60 60 SW 6 3123 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 58 58 SW 6 3123 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 57 57 SW 6 3123 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 56 56 W 8 3123 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 57 57 W 8 3123 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 60 60 W 8 3123 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 64 64 SW 7 3165 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 68 69 SW 7 4129 4540 0 Blue 2
10 AM Mon 72 75 SW 7 5273 4903 363 Blue 8
11 AM Mon 75 79 SW 15 6238 5372 832 Blue 12
12 Noon Mon 78 83 SW 15 8329 6727 2187 Blue 16
1 PM Mon 79 84 SW 15 8802 7249 2709 Blue 17
2 PM Mon 78 83 SW 18 8329 6727 2187 Blue 16
3 PM Mon 78 81 SW 18 7314 5806 1266 Blue 14
4 PM Mon 76 78 SW 18 5831 5267 727 Blue 11
5 PM Mon 74 75 SW 15 5273 4903 363 Blue 8
6 PM Mon 70 70 SW 15 4392 4540 0 Blue 3
7 PM Mon 66 66 SW 15 3451 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 63 63 W 8 3123 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 60 60 W 8 3123 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 59 59 W 8 3123 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 58 58 NW 6 3123 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 57 57 NW 6 3123 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 56 56 NW 6 3123 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 55 55 NW 6 3123 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 54 54 NW 6 3123 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 54 54 NW 6 3123 4540 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst