Detailed Predictions for: Horse Canyon
Launch Altitude (f): 4540
LZ Altitude (f): 3300
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

25 MAR 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Mon 46 46 NE 9 3297 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 47 47 NE 9 3297 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 45 45 NE 9 3297 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 50 50 E 7 3297 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 57 59 E 7 3317 4540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 62 65 E 7 4805 4540 0 Blue 3
11 AM Mon 66 71 SE 6 8539 7607 3067 Blue 9
12 Noon Mon 68 74 S 6 9411 8490 3950 Blue 12
1 PM Mon 70 76 S 6 11540 9068 4528 Blue 14
2 PM Mon 70 75 SW 7 9697 8780 4240 Blue 13
3 PM Mon 70 74 W 8 9411 8490 3950 Blue 12
4 PM Mon 69 71 W 8 8539 7607 3067 Blue 9
5 PM Mon 67 68 W 9 7649 4796 256 Blue 6
6 PM Mon 65 65 NW 9 4805 4540 0 Blue 3
7 PM Mon 60 60 NW 7 3501 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 56 56 N 6 3297 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 53 53 N 3 3297 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 51 51 N 3 3297 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 48 48 N 2 3297 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 48 48 N 2 3297 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 47 47 N 3 3297 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 45 45 N 3 3297 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 45 45 N 5 3297 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 47 47 N 5 3297 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 46 46 N 5 3297 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 47 47 N 5 3297 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 45 45 NW 5 3297 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 50 50 NW 6 3297 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 56 57 NW 6 3297 4540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 62 64 W 7 4593 4540 0 Blue 2
11 AM Tue 65 68 W 7 7649 4796 256 Blue 6
12 Noon Tue 67 70 W 8 8245 7096 2556 Blue 8
1 PM Tue 69 72 W 9 8832 7904 3364 Blue 10
2 PM Tue 69 72 W 10 8832 7904 3364 Blue 10
3 PM Tue 69 71 W 10 8539 7607 3067 Blue 9
4 PM Tue 68 69 W 10 7948 6054 1514 Blue 7
5 PM Tue 66 66 W 10 6153 4540 0 Blue 4
6 PM Tue 64 64 NW 10 4593 4540 0 Blue 2
7 PM Tue 59 59 NW 9 3317 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 55 55 NW 8 3297 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 52 52 N 9 3297 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 50 50 N 9 3297 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 47 47 N 9 3297 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 47 47 N 10 3297 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 46 46 NW 10 3297 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 44 44 NW 10 3297 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 44 44 NW 10 3297 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 46 46 NW 10 3297 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 45 45 NW 10 3297 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 45 45 NW 9 3297 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 44 44 NW 9 3297 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 48 48 NW 9 3297 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 52 52 NW 10 3297 4540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 56 57 W 13 3297 4540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 58 60 W 15 3501 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 60 63 W 16 4368 4540 0 Blue 1
1 PM Wed 61 64 W 17 4593 4540 0 Blue 2
2 PM Wed 61 64 W 18 4593 4540 0 Blue 2
3 PM Wed 61 63 W 21 4368 4540 0 Blue 1
4 PM Wed 60 61 W 21 3684 4540 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 59 59 W 21 3317 4540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 57 57 W 18 3297 4540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 53 53 NW 15 3297 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 49 49 NW 12 3297 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 47 47 NW 10 3297 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 45 45 NW 10 3297 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 43 43 NW 10 3297 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 42 42 NW 10 3297 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 42 42 NW 10 3297 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 40 40 NW 12 3297 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 40 40 NW 13 3297 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 42 42 NW 15 3297 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 41 41 NW 16 3297 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 41 41 NW 16 3297 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 40 40 NW 16 3297 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 44 44 NW 14 3297 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 50 51 NW 14 3297 4540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 55 57 NW 14 3297 4540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 58 62 NW 15 3867 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 59 64 NW 15 4593 4540 0 Blue 2
1 PM Thu 61 66 NW 15 6153 4540 0 Blue 4
2 PM Thu 62 67 W 17 7217 4584 44 Blue 5
3 PM Thu 61 65 W 17 4805 4540 0 Blue 3
4 PM Thu 61 63 W 17 4368 4540 0 Blue 1
5 PM Thu 59 60 W 15 3501 4540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 57 57 W 15 3297 4540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 54 54 W 15 3297 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 50 50 NW 12 3297 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 48 48 NW 12 3297 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 46 46 NW 12 3297 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 44 44 NW 15 3297 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 44 44 NW 15 3297 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 43 43 NW 15 3297 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 42 42 NW 14 3297 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 42 42 NW 14 3297 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 44 44 NW 14 3297 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 43 43 NW 15 3297 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 44 44 NW 15 3297 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 42 42 NW 15 3297 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 47 47 NW 13 3297 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 53 55 NW 13 3297 4540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 58 61 NW 13 3684 4540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 61 65 NW 8 4805 4540 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Fri 63 68 NW 8 7649 4796 256 Blue 6
1 PM Fri 65 70 NW 8 8245 7096 2556 Blue 8
2 PM Fri 66 71 NW 10 8539 7607 3067 Blue 9
3 PM Fri 65 69 NW 10 7948 6054 1514 Blue 7
4 PM Fri 64 66 NW 10 6153 4540 0 Blue 4
5 PM Fri 62 63 NW 10 4368 4540 0 Blue 1
6 PM Fri 60 60 NW 10 3501 4540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 55 55 NW 10 3297 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 50 50 NE 8 3297 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 48 48 NE 8 3297 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 45 45 NE 8 3297 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 42 42 E 7 3297 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 42 42 E 7 3297 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 41 41 E 7 3297 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 39 39 NE 8 3297 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 39 39 NE 8 3297 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 41 41 NE 8 3297 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 40 40 NE 12 3297 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 41 41 NE 12 3297 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 39 39 NE 12 3297 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 44 44 NE 17 3297 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 51 52 NE 17 3297 4540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 57 60 NE 17 3501 4540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 61 65 NE 17 4805 4540 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Sat 63 68 NE 17 7649 4796 256 Blue 6
1 PM Sat 65 71 NE 17 8539 7607 3067 Blue 9
2 PM Sat 66 71 NE 16 8539 7607 3067 Blue 9
3 PM Sat 65 69 NE 16 7948 6054 1514 Blue 7
4 PM Sat 64 66 NE 16 6153 4540 0 Blue 4
5 PM Sat 62 63 NE 16 4368 4540 0 Blue 1
6 PM Sat 60 60 NE 16 3501 4540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 56 56 NE 16 3297 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 52 52 NE 13 3297 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 50 50 NE 13 3297 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 47 47 NE 13 3297 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 45 45 NE 12 3297 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 45 45 NE 12 3297 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 44 44 NE 12 3297 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 42 42 NE 15 3297 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 42 42 NE 15 3297 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 44 44 NE 15 3297 4540 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst