Detailed Predictions for: Horse Canyon
Launch Altitude (f): 4540
LZ Altitude (f): 3300
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

21 JUL 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 65 65 N 3 3094 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 65 65 N 3 3094 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 69 69 N 2 3094 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 75 76 NE 1 4111 4540 0 Blue 3
9 AM Sun 84 87 S 2 5574 5170 630 Blue 14
10 AM Sun 88 93 S 5 7101 6273 1733 Blue 20
11 AM Sun 91 96 S 6 10014 7070 2530 Blue 23
12 Noon Sun 93 99 S 7 12142 9380 4840 Blue 26
1 PM Sun 94 100 SW 7 12814 10808 6268 Blue 27
2 PM Sun 93 99 SW 7 12142 9380 4840 Blue 26
3 PM Sun 94 99 W 7 12142 9380 4840 Blue 26
4 PM Sun 93 96 W 7 10014 7070 2530 Blue 23
5 PM Sun 92 94 W 7 8421 6540 2000 Blue 21
6 PM Sun 90 91 W 6 6566 5734 1194 Blue 18
7 PM Sun 86 86 W 5 5442 5038 498 Blue 13
8 PM Sun 78 78 W 2 4378 4540 0 Blue 5
9 PM Sun 75 75 W 1 3978 4540 0 Blue 2
10 PM Sun 73 73 NW 1 3698 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 71 71 N 2 3163 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 70 70 N 2 3094 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 68 68 N 2 3094 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 67 67 N 2 3094 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 67 67 N 2 3094 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 67 67 N 1 3094 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 67 67 NE 1 3094 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 67 67 E 1 3094 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 70 70 SE 1 3094 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 76 77 S 1 4245 4540 0 Blue 4
9 AM Mon 84 86 S 2 5442 5038 498 Blue 13
10 AM Mon 88 91 S 5 6566 5734 1194 Blue 18
11 AM Mon 90 94 SW 7 8421 6540 2000 Blue 21
12 Noon Mon 92 97 SW 7 10883 8378 3838 Blue 24
1 PM Mon 93 98 SW 8 11589 8796 4256 Blue 25
2 PM Mon 92 97 SW 8 10883 8378 3838 Blue 24
3 PM Mon 93 97 W 8 10883 8378 3838 Blue 24
4 PM Mon 92 95 NW 7 8899 6806 2266 Blue 22
5 PM Mon 91 92 NW 7 6834 6004 1464 Blue 19
6 PM Mon 89 89 NW 6 6026 5434 894 Blue 16
7 PM Mon 86 86 NW 6 5442 5038 498 Blue 13
8 PM Mon 79 79 NW 6 4512 4540 0 Blue 6
9 PM Mon 76 76 NW 5 4111 4540 0 Blue 3
10 PM Mon 74 74 NW 5 3844 4540 0 Blue 1
11 PM Mon 72 72 NW 5 3431 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 72 72 N 5 3431 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 70 70 N 5 3094 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 69 69 N 5 3094 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 69 69 N 5 3094 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 69 69 N 6 3094 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 69 69 NE 6 3094 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 69 69 NE 5 3094 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 72 72 E 3 3431 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 77 77 E 2 4245 4540 0 Blue 4
9 AM Tue 84 85 E 5 5310 4906 366 Blue 12
10 AM Tue 88 91 E 6 6566 5734 1194 Blue 18
11 AM Tue 90 93 E 7 7101 6273 1733 Blue 20
12 Noon Tue 91 95 SE 7 8899 6806 2266 Blue 22
1 PM Tue 92 96 SW 7 10014 7070 2530 Blue 23
2 PM Tue 91 95 W 6 8899 6806 2266 Blue 22
3 PM Tue 92 95 W 7 8899 6806 2266 Blue 22
4 PM Tue 91 93 NW 9 7101 6273 1733 Blue 20
5 PM Tue 90 91 NW 9 6566 5734 1194 Blue 18
6 PM Tue 89 89 NW 8 6026 5434 894 Blue 16
7 PM Tue 86 86 N 7 5442 5038 498 Blue 13
8 PM Tue 80 80 N 5 4645 4540 0 Blue 7
9 PM Tue 77 77 N 5 4245 4540 0 Blue 4
10 PM Tue 75 75 N 6 3978 4540 0 Blue 2
11 PM Tue 74 74 N 7 3844 4540 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Wed 73 73 N 7 3698 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 72 72 NE 7 3431 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 71 71 NE 7 3163 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 71 71 NE 8 3163 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 71 71 NE 10 3163 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 71 71 NE 12 3163 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 71 71 NE 12 3163 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 74 74 NE 12 3844 4540 0 Blue 1
8 AM Wed 79 80 NE 12 4645 4540 0 Blue 7
9 AM Wed 85 87 NE 12 5574 5170 630 Blue 14
10 AM Wed 89 93 NE 12 7101 6273 1733 Blue 20
11 AM Wed 91 94 E 7 8421 6540 2000 Blue 21
12 Noon Wed 92 96 E 7 10014 7070 2530 Blue 23
1 PM Wed 93 97 E 7 10883 8378 3838 Blue 24
2 PM Wed 92 96 N 8 10014 7070 2530 Blue 23
3 PM Wed 93 96 N 8 10014 7070 2530 Blue 23
4 PM Wed 92 94 N 8 8421 6540 2000 Blue 21
5 PM Wed 91 92 NW 8 6834 6004 1464 Blue 19
6 PM Wed 90 90 NW 8 6297 5566 1026 Blue 17
7 PM Wed 86 86 NW 8 5442 5038 498 Blue 13
8 PM Wed 81 81 NW 5 4779 4540 0 Blue 8
9 PM Wed 78 78 NW 5 4378 4540 0 Blue 5
10 PM Wed 76 76 NW 5 4111 4540 0 Blue 3
11 PM Wed 75 75 NW 5 3978 4540 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Thu 74 74 NW 5 3844 4540 0 Blue 1
1 AM Thu 73 73 NW 5 3698 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 72 72 NW 6 3431 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 72 72 NW 6 3431 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 72 72 NW 6 3431 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 72 72 N 6 3431 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 72 72 N 6 3431 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 75 75 N 6 3978 4540 0 Blue 2
8 AM Thu 79 80 NW 3 4645 4540 0 Blue 7
9 AM Thu 86 88 NW 3 5754 5302 762 Blue 15
10 AM Thu 89 92 NW 3 6834 6004 1464 Blue 19
11 AM Thu 91 94 W 8 8421 6540 2000 Blue 21
12 Noon Thu 92 96 W 8 10014 7070 2530 Blue 23
1 PM Thu 93 97 W 8 10883 8378 3838 Blue 24
2 PM Thu 92 96 W 10 10014 7070 2530 Blue 23
3 PM Thu 93 96 W 10 10014 7070 2530 Blue 23
4 PM Thu 92 94 W 10 8421 6540 2000 Blue 21
5 PM Thu 91 92 W 12 6834 6004 1464 Blue 19
6 PM Thu 89 89 W 12 6026 5434 894 Blue 16
7 PM Thu 86 86 W 12 5442 5038 498 Blue 13
8 PM Thu 80 80 NW 7 4645 4540 0 Blue 7
9 PM Thu 77 77 NW 7 4245 4540 0 Blue 4
10 PM Thu 75 75 NW 7 3978 4540 0 Blue 2
11 PM Thu 73 73 NW 7 3698 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 72 72 NW 7 3431 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 71 71 NW 7 3163 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 70 70 NW 7 3094 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 70 70 NW 7 3094 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 70 70 NW 7 3094 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 70 70 N 8 3094 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 70 70 N 8 3094 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 73 73 N 8 3698 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 78 79 NW 5 4512 4540 0 Blue 6
9 AM Fri 85 87 NW 5 5574 5170 630 Blue 14
10 AM Fri 89 93 NW 5 7101 6273 1733 Blue 20
11 AM Fri 91 97 W 8 10883 8378 3838 Blue 24
12 Noon Fri 92 99 W 8 12142 9380 4840 Blue 26
1 PM Fri 93 101 W 8 13904 11334 6794 Blue 28
2 PM Fri 92 99 W 12 12142 9380 4840 Blue 26
3 PM Fri 93 99 W 12 12142 9380 4840 Blue 26
4 PM Fri 92 96 W 12 10014 7070 2530 Blue 23
5 PM Fri 91 93 W 12 7101 6273 1733 Blue 20
6 PM Fri 89 90 W 12 6297 5566 1026 Blue 17
7 PM Fri 85 85 W 12 5310 4906 366 Blue 12
8 PM Fri 78 78 NW 8 4378 4540 0 Blue 5
9 PM Fri 75 75 NW 8 3978 4540 0 Blue 2
10 PM Fri 73 73 NW 8 3698 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 72 72 NW 9 3431 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 71 71 NW 9 3163 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 69 69 NW 9 3094 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 68 68 NW 8 3094 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 68 68 NW 8 3094 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 68 68 NW 8 3094 4540 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst