Detailed Predictions for: Horse Canyon
Launch Altitude (f): 4540
LZ Altitude (f): 3300
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

17 NOV 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Sat 50 50 N 12 3218 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 50 50 N 12 3218 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 48 48 N 12 3218 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 49 49 N 12 3218 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 57 57 N 9 3218 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 62 63 NW 7 5038 4540 0 Blue 5
10 AM Sat 65 67 W 6 6872 5479 939 Blue 9
11 AM Sat 67 69 W 7 7784 6384 1844 Blue 11
12 Noon Sat 67 69 W 8 7784 6384 1844 Blue 11
1 PM Sat 68 70 W 10 8132 6823 2283 Blue 12
2 PM Sat 67 68 W 10 7308 5936 1396 Blue 10
3 PM Sat 66 66 W 10 6428 5013 473 Blue 8
4 PM Sat 65 65 NW 10 5974 4562 22 Blue 7
5 PM Sat 61 61 NW 9 4179 4540 0 Blue 3
6 PM Sat 58 58 N 8 3343 4540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 56 56 N 8 3218 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 54 54 N 7 3218 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 54 54 N 8 3218 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 52 52 N 8 3218 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 52 52 N 8 3218 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 52 52 N 8 3218 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 51 51 N 8 3218 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 51 51 N 6 3218 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 51 51 N 6 3218 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 51 51 NE 6 3218 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 50 50 NE 6 3218 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 49 49 NE 8 3218 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 50 50 NE 13 3218 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 58 58 NE 12 3343 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 64 65 NE 10 5974 4562 22 Blue 7
10 AM Sun 66 68 E 8 7308 5936 1396 Blue 10
11 AM Sun 68 70 E 9 8132 6823 2283 Blue 12
12 Noon Sun 68 70 E 8 8132 6823 2283 Blue 12
1 PM Sun 69 71 E 8 8354 7254 2714 Blue 13
2 PM Sun 68 69 E 8 7784 6384 1844 Blue 11
3 PM Sun 67 67 E 8 6872 5479 939 Blue 9
4 PM Sun 66 66 NE 10 6428 5013 473 Blue 8
5 PM Sun 62 62 NE 13 4579 4540 0 Blue 4
6 PM Sun 58 58 NE 13 3343 4540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 56 56 NE 17 3218 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 54 54 NE 18 3218 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 54 54 NE 18 3218 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 53 53 NE 18 3218 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 52 52 NE 17 3218 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 52 52 NE 17 3218 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 51 51 NE 17 3218 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 52 52 NE 17 3218 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 51 51 NE 17 3218 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 51 51 NE 16 3218 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 50 50 NE 16 3218 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 49 49 NE 16 3218 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 50 50 NE 16 3218 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 56 56 NE 16 3218 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 61 62 NE 16 4579 4540 0 Blue 4
10 AM Mon 64 65 E 15 5974 4562 22 Blue 7
11 AM Mon 65 67 E 15 6872 5479 939 Blue 9
12 Noon Mon 65 67 E 15 6872 5479 939 Blue 9
1 PM Mon 66 67 E 14 6872 5479 939 Blue 9
2 PM Mon 65 66 E 14 6428 5013 473 Blue 8
3 PM Mon 64 64 E 14 5511 4540 0 Blue 6
4 PM Mon 63 63 NE 15 5038 4540 0 Blue 5
5 PM Mon 59 59 NE 15 3629 4540 0 Blue 1
6 PM Mon 56 56 NE 15 3218 4540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 54 54 NE 16 3218 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 52 52 NE 16 3218 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 52 52 NE 16 3218 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 50 50 E 13 3218 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 50 50 E 13 3218 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 50 50 E 13 3218 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 49 49 E 13 3218 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 49 49 E 13 3218 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 49 49 E 13 3218 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 49 49 NE 12 3218 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 48 48 NE 12 3218 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 47 47 NE 12 3218 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 48 48 NE 9 3218 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 53 53 NE 9 3218 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 57 58 NE 9 3343 4540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 59 61 SE 5 4179 4540 0 Blue 3
11 AM Tue 60 62 SE 5 4579 4540 0 Blue 4
12 Noon Tue 61 63 SE 5 5038 4540 0 Blue 5
1 PM Tue 61 63 W 3 5038 4540 0 Blue 5
2 PM Tue 60 61 W 3 4179 4540 0 Blue 3
3 PM Tue 60 60 W 3 3897 4540 0 Blue 2
4 PM Tue 59 59 W 8 3629 4540 0 Blue 1
5 PM Tue 56 56 W 8 3218 4540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 54 54 W 8 3218 4540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 52 52 N 8 3218 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 51 51 N 8 3218 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 51 51 N 8 3218 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 50 50 N 5 3218 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 50 50 N 5 3218 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 50 50 N 5 3218 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 49 49 N 5 3218 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 50 50 N 5 3218 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 49 49 N 5 3218 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 49 49 NE 3 3218 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 49 49 NE 3 3218 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 48 48 NE 3 3218 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 48 48 NE 6 3218 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 53 53 NE 6 3218 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 56 57 NE 6 3218 4540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 58 59 SE 5 3629 4540 0 Blue 1
11 AM Wed 58 59 SE 5 3629 4540 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Wed 59 60 SE 5 3897 4540 0 Blue 2
1 PM Wed 59 60 S 2 3897 4540 0 Blue 2
2 PM Wed 59 59 S 2 3629 4540 0 Blue 1
3 PM Wed 58 58 S 2 3343 4540 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 57 57 NW 2 3218 4540 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 55 55 NW 2 3218 4540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 54 54 NW 2 3218 4540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 52 52 W 9 3218 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 52 52 W 9 3218 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 52 52 W 9 3218 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 51 51 W 7 3218 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 50 50 W 7 3218 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 51 51 W 7 3218 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 50 50 SW 6 3218 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 50 50 SW 6 3218 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 50 50 SW 6 3218 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 50 50 W 6 3218 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 50 50 W 6 3218 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 49 49 W 6 3218 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 50 50 NW 7 3218 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 54 54 NW 7 3218 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 57 57 NW 7 3218 4540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 59 59 NW 10 3629 4540 0 Blue 1
11 AM Thu 59 60 NW 10 3897 4540 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Thu 60 61 NW 10 4179 4540 0 Blue 3
1 PM Thu 60 60 NW 13 3897 4540 0 Blue 2
2 PM Thu 60 60 NW 13 3897 4540 0 Blue 2
3 PM Thu 59 59 NW 13 3629 4540 0 Blue 1
4 PM Thu 58 58 NW 13 3343 4540 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 55 55 NW 13 3218 4540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 53 53 NW 13 3218 4540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 51 51 N 8 3218 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 50 50 N 8 3218 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 50 50 N 8 3218 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 48 48 N 10 3218 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 48 48 N 10 3218 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 48 48 N 10 3218 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 47 47 N 13 3218 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 48 48 N 13 3218 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 47 47 N 13 3218 4540 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst