Detailed Predictions for: Horse Canyon
Launch Altitude (f): 4540
LZ Altitude (f): 3300
Sounding

Station:

 KNKX

Date/Time:

 4 FEB 2012

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
4 AM Sat 40 40 NE 14 2592 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 39 39 NE 14 2592 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 38 38 NE 14 2592 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 40 40 NE 14 2592 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 47 47 NE 14 2592 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 53 54 NE 14 5969 4540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 58 60 NE 16 7565 7253 2713 Blue 6
11 AM Sat 61 63 NE 16 8238 7551 3011 Blue 9
12 Noon Sat 62 65 NE 16 8546 7750 3210 Blue 11
1 PM Sat 62 64 E 14 8392 7651 3111 Blue 10
2 PM Sat 63 65 E 14 8546 7750 3210 Blue 11
3 PM Sat 62 63 E 14 8238 7551 3011 Blue 9
4 PM Sat 60 60 NE 10 7565 7253 2713 Blue 6
5 PM Sat 56 56 NE 10 7166 4540 0 Blue 2
6 PM Sat 51 51 NE 10 2592 4540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 48 48 NE 13 2592 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 46 46 NE 13 2592 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 45 45 NE 13 2592 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 43 43 NE 15 2592 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 41 41 NE 15 2592 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 40 40 NE 15 2592 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 39 39 NE 14 2592 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 39 39 NE 14 2592 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 39 39 NE 14 2592 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 39 39 NE 13 2592 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 37 37 NE 13 2592 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 36 36 NE 13 2592 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 39 39 NE 14 2592 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 45 45 NE 14 2592 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 52 53 NE 14 3889 4540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 58 60 NE 12 7565 7253 2713 Blue 6
11 AM Sun 60 62 NE 12 7765 7452 2912 Blue 8
12 Noon Sun 62 64 NE 12 8392 7651 3111 Blue 10
1 PM Sun 62 64 E 8 8392 7651 3111 Blue 10
2 PM Sun 63 64 E 8 8392 7651 3111 Blue 10
3 PM Sun 62 63 E 8 8238 7551 3011 Blue 9
4 PM Sun 60 60 NE 8 7565 7253 2713 Blue 6
5 PM Sun 55 55 NE 8 6745 4540 0 Blue 1
6 PM Sun 49 49 NE 8 2592 4540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 47 47 NE 10 2592 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 44 44 NE 10 2592 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 43 43 NE 10 2592 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 41 41 NE 12 2592 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 38 38 NE 12 2592 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 38 38 NE 12 2592 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 36 36 NE 10 2592 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 36 36 NE 10 2592 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 36 36 NE 10 2592 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 36 36 NE 9 2592 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 35 35 NE 9 2592 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 33 33 NE 9 2592 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 36 36 NE 9 2592 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 43 43 NE 9 2592 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 50 51 NE 9 2592 4540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 56 57 SW 6 7265 5902 1362 Blue 3
11 AM Mon 58 60 SW 6 7565 7253 2713 Blue 6
12 Noon Mon 60 62 SW 6 7765 7452 2912 Blue 8
1 PM Mon 60 62 SW 6 7765 7452 2912 Blue 8
2 PM Mon 61 62 SW 6 7765 7452 2912 Blue 8
3 PM Mon 60 61 SW 6 7665 7352 2812 Blue 7
4 PM Mon 59 59 W 6 7465 7153 2613 Blue 5
5 PM Mon 55 55 W 6 6745 4540 0 Blue 1
6 PM Mon 50 50 W 6 2592 4540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 48 48 W 6 2592 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 46 46 W 6 2592 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 45 45 W 6 2592 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 43 43 E 5 2592 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 41 41 E 5 2592 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 41 41 E 5 2592 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 39 39 E 5 2592 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 40 40 E 5 2592 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 40 40 E 5 2592 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 39 39 S 8 2592 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 38 38 S 8 2592 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 37 37 S 8 2592 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 39 39 S 8 2592 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 43 43 S 8 2592 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 48 48 S 8 2592 4540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 52 53 E 7 3889 4540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 54 55 E 7 6745 4540 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Tue 55 56 E 7 7166 4540 0 Blue 2
1 PM Tue 55 56 E 7 7166 4540 0 Blue 2
2 PM Tue 56 57 E 7 7265 5902 1362 Blue 3
3 PM Tue 55 55 E 7 6745 4540 0 Blue 1
4 PM Tue 54 54 NW 1 5969 4540 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 51 51 NW 1 2592 4540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 46 46 NW 1 2592 4540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 45 45 NW 1 2592 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 43 43 NW 1 2592 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 42 42 NW 1 2592 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 41 41 W 5 2592 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 39 39 W 5 2592 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 38 38 W 5 2592 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 37 37 W 5 2592 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 37 37 W 5 2592 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 37 37 W 5 2592 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 37 37 NW 10 2592 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 36 36 NW 10 2592 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 35 35 NW 10 2592 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 37 37 NW 10 2592 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 41 41 NW 10 2592 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 46 46 NW 10 2592 4540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 50 50 NE 20 2592 4540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 52 52 NE 20 2592 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 53 54 NE 20 5969 4540 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 53 53 NE 20 3889 4540 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 54 54 NE 20 5969 4540 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 53 53 NE 20 3889 4540 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 52 52 NE 20 2592 4540 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 50 50 NE 20 2592 4540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 46 46 NE 20 2592 4540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 45 45 NE 20 2592 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 43 43 NE 20 2592 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 43 43 NE 20 2592 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 42 42 NE 10 2592 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 40 40 NE 10 2592 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 40 40 NE 10 2592 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 39 39 NE 10 2592 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 39 39 NE 10 2592 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 39 39 NE 10 2592 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 39 39 NE 9 2592 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 38 38 NE 9 2592 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 37 37 NE 9 2592 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 40 40 NE 9 2592 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 46 46 NE 9 2592 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 53 54 NE 9 5969 4540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 59 61 NE 22 7665 7352 2812 Blue 7
11 AM Thu 61 63 NE 22 8238 7551 3011 Blue 9
12 Noon Thu 63 65 NE 22 8546 7750 3210 Blue 11
1 PM Thu 63 65 NE 22 8546 7750 3210 Blue 11
2 PM Thu 64 65 NE 22 8546 7750 3210 Blue 11
3 PM Thu 63 64 NE 22 8392 7651 3111 Blue 10
4 PM Thu 62 62 NE 22 7765 7452 2912 Blue 8
5 PM Thu 59 59 NE 22 7465 7153 2613 Blue 5
6 PM Thu 55 55 NE 22 6745 4540 0 Blue 1
7 PM Thu 53 53 NE 22 3889 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 51 51 NE 22 2592 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 51 51 NE 22 2592 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 49 49 NE 12 2592 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 47 47 NE 12 2592 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 47 47 NE 12 2592 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 46 46 NE 12 2592 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 46 46 NE 12 2592 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 46 46 NE 12 2592 4540 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst