Detailed Predictions for: Horse Canyon
Launch Altitude (f): 4540
LZ Altitude (f): 3300
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

21 SEP 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Fri 54 54 NE 3 3173 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 54 54 NE 3 3173 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 54 54 NE 3 3173 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 64 64 E 3 3173 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 74 76 SE 3 3471 4540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 80 83 SE 5 5770 4540 0 Blue 7
11 AM Fri 83 87 S 6 9632 6521 1981 Blue 11
12 Noon Fri 84 89 S 7 10442 9135 4595 Blue 13
1 PM Fri 85 91 SW 8 12008 9958 5418 Blue 15
2 PM Fri 84 89 W 8 10442 9135 4595 Blue 13
3 PM Fri 85 89 W 8 10442 9135 4595 Blue 13
4 PM Fri 84 86 W 9 9213 5707 1167 Blue 10
5 PM Fri 82 83 NW 9 5770 4540 0 Blue 7
6 PM Fri 80 80 NW 9 4315 4540 0 Blue 4
7 PM Fri 74 74 NW 6 3212 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 70 70 N 5 3173 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 66 66 N 5 3173 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 63 63 N 6 3173 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 62 62 N 5 3173 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 60 60 NE 5 3173 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 58 58 NE 6 3173 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 58 58 NE 6 3173 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 57 57 NE 6 3173 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 57 57 NE 6 3173 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 55 55 E 6 3173 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 55 55 E 6 3173 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 55 55 E 6 3173 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 65 65 E 5 3173 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 75 77 SE 6 3674 4540 0 Blue 1
10 AM Sat 81 84 SE 6 6599 4644 104 Blue 8
11 AM Sat 84 89 SE 6 10442 9135 4595 Blue 13
12 Noon Sat 85 91 S 6 12008 9958 5418 Blue 15
1 PM Sat 86 92 S 6 12072 10359 5819 Blue 16
2 PM Sat 85 90 W 7 10781 9550 5010 Blue 14
3 PM Sat 86 90 W 8 10781 9550 5010 Blue 14
4 PM Sat 85 87 W 9 9632 6521 1981 Blue 11
5 PM Sat 83 84 W 9 6599 4644 104 Blue 8
6 PM Sat 81 81 NW 9 4660 4540 0 Blue 5
7 PM Sat 75 75 NW 8 3341 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 70 70 N 8 3173 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 66 66 N 8 3173 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 64 64 N 9 3173 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 62 62 N 9 3173 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 60 60 N 9 3173 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 59 59 N 8 3173 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 58 58 N 9 3173 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 57 57 N 9 3173 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 57 57 N 9 3173 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 55 55 N 9 3173 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 55 55 N 8 3173 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 55 55 N 8 3173 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 65 65 NW 7 3173 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 74 75 W 7 3341 4540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 80 83 W 8 5770 4540 0 Blue 7
11 AM Sun 83 88 SW 10 10044 8709 4169 Blue 12
12 Noon Sun 84 90 SW 13 10781 9550 5010 Blue 14
1 PM Sun 85 91 SW 14 12008 9958 5418 Blue 15
2 PM Sun 84 89 W 15 10442 9135 4595 Blue 13
3 PM Sun 85 89 W 14 10442 9135 4595 Blue 13
4 PM Sun 84 86 W 14 9213 5707 1167 Blue 10
5 PM Sun 82 83 W 13 5770 4540 0 Blue 7
6 PM Sun 80 80 W 12 4315 4540 0 Blue 4
7 PM Sun 74 74 NW 9 3212 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 69 69 NW 7 3173 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 64 64 NW 6 3173 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 62 62 NW 6 3173 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 60 60 NW 6 3173 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 58 58 NW 6 3173 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 57 57 NW 7 3173 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 56 56 NW 7 3173 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 55 55 NW 7 3173 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 55 55 N 7 3173 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 53 53 N 9 3173 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 53 53 N 9 3173 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 53 53 N 9 3173 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 63 63 N 7 3173 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 73 75 N 7 3341 4540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 79 82 N 7 5426 4540 0 Blue 6
11 AM Mon 82 87 SW 5 9632 6521 1981 Blue 11
12 Noon Mon 83 89 SW 5 10442 9135 4595 Blue 13
1 PM Mon 84 90 SW 5 10781 9550 5010 Blue 14
2 PM Mon 84 90 W 10 10781 9550 5010 Blue 14
3 PM Mon 84 88 W 10 10044 8709 4169 Blue 12
4 PM Mon 83 86 W 10 9213 5707 1167 Blue 10
5 PM Mon 81 82 NW 13 5426 4540 0 Blue 6
6 PM Mon 79 79 NW 13 4102 4540 0 Blue 3
7 PM Mon 73 73 NW 13 3173 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 68 68 N 8 3173 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 64 64 N 8 3173 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 61 61 N 8 3173 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 60 60 N 8 3173 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 57 57 N 8 3173 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 56 56 N 8 3173 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 55 55 NE 6 3173 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 54 54 NE 6 3173 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 54 54 NE 6 3173 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 52 52 NE 10 3173 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 52 52 NE 10 3173 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 52 52 NE 10 3173 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 62 62 NE 10 3173 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 73 75 NE 10 3341 4540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 79 82 NE 10 5426 4540 0 Blue 6
11 AM Tue 82 87 E 9 9632 6521 1981 Blue 11
12 Noon Tue 83 89 E 9 10442 9135 4595 Blue 13
1 PM Tue 84 90 E 9 10781 9550 5010 Blue 14
2 PM Tue 84 90 E 10 10781 9550 5010 Blue 14
3 PM Tue 84 88 E 10 10044 8709 4169 Blue 12
4 PM Tue 83 85 E 10 8784 5415 875 Blue 9
5 PM Tue 81 82 E 7 5426 4540 0 Blue 6
6 PM Tue 79 79 E 7 4102 4540 0 Blue 3
7 PM Tue 73 73 E 7 3173 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 69 69 NE 7 3173 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 65 65 NE 7 3173 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 62 62 NE 7 3173 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 61 61 NE 5 3173 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 59 59 NE 5 3173 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 58 58 NE 5 3173 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 57 57 NE 6 3173 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 56 56 NE 6 3173 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 56 56 NE 6 3173 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 54 54 NE 8 3173 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 54 54 NE 8 3173 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 54 54 NE 8 3173 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 64 64 E 9 3173 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 74 76 E 9 3471 4540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 80 83 E 9 5770 4540 0 Blue 7
11 AM Wed 83 88 E 9 10044 8709 4169 Blue 12
12 Noon Wed 84 90 E 9 10781 9550 5010 Blue 14
1 PM Wed 85 91 E 9 12008 9958 5418 Blue 15
2 PM Wed 85 90 E 5 10781 9550 5010 Blue 14
3 PM Wed 85 89 E 5 10442 9135 4595 Blue 13
4 PM Wed 84 86 E 5 9213 5707 1167 Blue 10
5 PM Wed 82 83 W 8 5770 4540 0 Blue 7
6 PM Wed 80 80 W 8 4315 4540 0 Blue 4
7 PM Wed 74 74 W 8 3212 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 69 69 N 5 3173 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 65 65 N 5 3173 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 63 63 N 5 3173 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 61 61 N 5 3173 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 59 59 N 5 3173 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 58 58 N 5 3173 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 57 57 N 6 3173 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 56 56 N 6 3173 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 56 56 N 6 3173 4540 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst