Detailed Predictions for: Horse Canyon
Launch Altitude (f): 4540
LZ Altitude (f): 3300
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

21 JAN 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Sun 34 34 NE 2 2739 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 33 33 NE 2 2739 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 32 32 NE 3 2739 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 33 33 E 5 2739 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 38 38 E 5 2739 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 44 45 E 6 5074 4540 0 Blue 3
10 AM Sun 50 52 E 6 7505 5861 1321 Blue 10
11 AM Sun 53 55 E 5 8119 7476 2936 Blue 13
12 Noon Sun 55 57 E 3 8357 7892 3352 Blue 15
1 PM Sun 55 57 E 2 8357 7892 3352 Blue 15
2 PM Sun 56 57 E 2 8357 7892 3352 Blue 15
3 PM Sun 55 55 E 2 8119 7476 2936 Blue 13
4 PM Sun 54 54 S 1 7924 7267 2727 Blue 12
5 PM Sun 48 48 NE 0 5743 5058 518 Blue 6
6 PM Sun 41 41 N 2 2739 4540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 35 35 N 7 2739 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 33 33 N 7 2739 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 34 34 N 6 2739 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 35 35 NE 7 2739 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 34 34 NE 7 2739 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 33 33 NE 7 2739 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 33 33 NE 7 2739 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 34 34 NE 7 2739 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 34 34 NE 7 2739 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 35 35 NE 7 2739 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 34 34 NE 7 2739 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 34 34 NE 7 2739 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 36 36 NE 7 2739 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 41 41 NE 6 2739 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 48 48 NE 5 5743 5058 518 Blue 6
10 AM Mon 54 55 NE 3 8119 7476 2936 Blue 13
11 AM Mon 58 60 NE 3 9755 8337 3797 Blue 18
12 Noon Mon 59 61 NE 3 10198 8699 4159 Blue 19
1 PM Mon 59 61 NE 5 10198 8699 4159 Blue 19
2 PM Mon 60 61 NE 6 10198 8699 4159 Blue 19
3 PM Mon 58 58 NE 7 8789 8099 3559 Blue 16
4 PM Mon 56 56 NE 9 8238 7684 3144 Blue 14
5 PM Mon 51 51 NE 10 7295 5733 1193 Blue 9
6 PM Mon 46 46 NE 13 5485 4540 0 Blue 4
7 PM Mon 42 42 NE 15 3592 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 40 40 NE 15 2739 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 40 40 NE 15 2739 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 41 41 NE 15 2739 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 41 41 NE 15 2739 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 41 41 NE 15 2739 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 41 41 NE 14 2739 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 41 41 NE 14 2739 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 41 41 NE 14 2739 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 40 40 NE 15 2739 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 38 38 NE 17 2739 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 38 38 NE 17 2739 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 40 40 NE 18 2739 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 45 45 NE 18 5074 4540 0 Blue 3
9 AM Tue 52 53 NE 20 7715 6133 1593 Blue 11
10 AM Tue 58 60 NE 21 9755 8337 3797 Blue 18
11 AM Tue 62 65 NE 21 10772 10308 5768 Blue 23
12 Noon Tue 63 66 NE 21 10959 10451 5911 Blue 24
1 PM Tue 64 66 NE 21 10959 10451 5911 Blue 24
2 PM Tue 63 65 NE 21 10772 10308 5768 Blue 23
3 PM Tue 63 64 NE 20 10629 10113 5573 Blue 22
4 PM Tue 61 61 NE 20 10198 8699 4159 Blue 19
5 PM Tue 57 57 NE 18 8357 7892 3352 Blue 15
6 PM Tue 53 53 NE 18 7715 6133 1593 Blue 11
7 PM Tue 50 50 NE 20 6257 5604 1064 Blue 8
8 PM Tue 48 48 NE 20 5743 5058 518 Blue 6
9 PM Tue 48 48 NE 18 5743 5058 518 Blue 6
10 PM Tue 47 47 NE 18 5614 4540 0 Blue 5
11 PM Tue 46 46 NE 18 5485 4540 0 Blue 4
12 Midnight Wed 45 45 NE 18 5074 4540 0 Blue 3
1 AM Wed 44 44 NE 17 4225 4540 0 Blue 2
2 AM Wed 44 44 NE 17 4225 4540 0 Blue 2
3 AM Wed 44 44 NE 16 4225 4540 0 Blue 2
4 AM Wed 43 43 NE 12 3910 4540 0 Blue 1
5 AM Wed 42 42 NE 12 3592 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 41 41 NE 12 2739 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 43 43 NE 10 3910 4540 0 Blue 1
8 AM Wed 48 48 NE 10 5743 5058 518 Blue 6
9 AM Wed 54 55 NE 10 8119 7476 2936 Blue 13
10 AM Wed 60 62 E 8 10342 9182 4642 Blue 20
11 AM Wed 64 66 E 8 10959 10451 5911 Blue 24
12 Noon Wed 66 69 E 8 11736 10892 6352 Blue 27
1 PM Wed 67 69 E 7 11736 10892 6352 Blue 27
2 PM Wed 68 69 E 7 11736 10892 6352 Blue 27
3 PM Wed 68 69 E 7 11736 10892 6352 Blue 27
4 PM Wed 67 67 SE 5 11220 10594 6054 Blue 25
5 PM Wed 64 64 SE 5 10629 10113 5573 Blue 22
6 PM Wed 60 60 SE 5 9755 8337 3797 Blue 18
7 PM Wed 57 57 S 3 8357 7892 3352 Blue 15
8 PM Wed 55 55 S 3 8119 7476 2936 Blue 13
9 PM Wed 53 53 S 3 7715 6133 1593 Blue 11
10 PM Wed 51 51 SW 3 7295 5733 1193 Blue 9
11 PM Wed 50 50 SW 3 6257 5604 1064 Blue 8
12 Midnight Thu 48 48 SW 3 5743 5058 518 Blue 6
1 AM Thu 46 46 W 3 5485 4540 0 Blue 4
2 AM Thu 45 45 W 3 5074 4540 0 Blue 3
3 AM Thu 44 44 W 3 4225 4540 0 Blue 2
4 AM Thu 43 43 W 5 3910 4540 0 Blue 1
5 AM Thu 41 41 W 5 2739 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 39 39 W 5 2739 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 40 40 W 8 2739 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 44 44 W 8 4225 4540 0 Blue 2
9 AM Thu 50 50 W 8 6257 5604 1064 Blue 8
10 AM Thu 55 55 W 13 8119 7476 2936 Blue 13
11 AM Thu 56 57 W 13 8357 7892 3352 Blue 15
12 Noon Thu 54 55 W 13 8119 7476 2936 Blue 13
1 PM Thu 52 53 W 20 7715 6133 1593 Blue 11
2 PM Thu 51 51 W 20 7295 5733 1193 Blue 9
3 PM Thu 50 50 W 20 6257 5604 1064 Blue 8
4 PM Thu 49 49 W 23 5872 5476 936 Blue 7
5 PM Thu 48 48 W 23 5743 5058 518 Blue 6
6 PM Thu 47 47 W 23 5614 4540 0 Blue 5
7 PM Thu 45 45 W 18 5074 4540 0 Blue 3
8 PM Thu 44 44 W 18 4225 4540 0 Blue 2
9 PM Thu 42 42 W 18 3592 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 41 41 NW 13 2739 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 40 40 NW 13 2739 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 40 40 NW 13 2739 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 39 39 NW 12 2739 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 39 39 NW 12 2739 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 39 39 NW 12 2739 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 38 38 NW 12 2739 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 38 38 NW 12 2739 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 38 38 NW 12 2739 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 39 39 NW 12 2739 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 42 42 NW 12 3592 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 46 47 NW 12 5614 4540 0 Blue 5
10 AM Fri 51 53 NW 10 7715 6133 1593 Blue 11
11 AM Fri 55 57 NW 10 8357 7892 3352 Blue 15
12 Noon Fri 59 61 NW 10 10198 8699 4159 Blue 19
1 PM Fri 61 63 N 8 10486 9654 5114 Blue 21
2 PM Fri 62 63 N 8 10486 9654 5114 Blue 21
3 PM Fri 61 62 N 8 10342 9182 4642 Blue 20
4 PM Fri 58 58 NE 8 8789 8099 3559 Blue 16
5 PM Fri 54 54 NE 8 7924 7267 2727 Blue 12
6 PM Fri 50 50 NE 8 6257 5604 1064 Blue 8
7 PM Fri 46 46 NE 13 5485 4540 0 Blue 4
8 PM Fri 44 44 NE 13 4225 4540 0 Blue 2
9 PM Fri 43 43 NE 13 3910 4540 0 Blue 1
10 PM Fri 43 43 NE 17 3910 4540 0 Blue 1
11 PM Fri 42 42 NE 17 3592 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 41 41 NE 17 2739 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 40 40 NE 18 2739 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 40 40 NE 18 2739 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 39 39 NE 18 2739 4540 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst