Detailed Predictions for: Horse Canyon
Launch Altitude (f): 4540
LZ Altitude (f): 3300
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

22 APR 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 53 53 N 8 2680 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 57 57 N 6 2680 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 61 61 NE 3 2680 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 66 67 NE 1 2680 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 71 73 E 1 6965 5406 866 Blue 4
10 AM Sun 74 78 S 2 11790 9133 4593 Blue 9
11 AM Sun 76 81 SW 5 12149 11766 7226 Blue 11
12 Noon Sun 78 84 SW 6 12615 12103 7563 Blue 14
1 PM Sun 79 85 W 8 13020 12258 7718 Blue 15
2 PM Sun 78 83 W 9 12460 11948 7408 Blue 13
3 PM Sun 78 82 W 10 12304 11852 7312 Blue 12
4 PM Sun 76 79 W 12 11876 10883 6343 Blue 9
5 PM Sun 72 73 NW 12 6965 5406 866 Blue 4
6 PM Sun 67 67 NW 12 2680 4540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 60 60 NW 12 2680 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 55 55 NW 12 2680 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 53 53 NW 12 2680 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 53 53 NW 12 2680 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 53 53 NW 13 2680 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 54 54 NW 13 2680 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 53 53 N 13 2680 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 52 52 N 12 2680 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 51 51 N 13 2680 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 51 51 N 12 2680 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 52 52 N 12 2680 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 55 55 N 12 2680 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 59 59 N 12 2680 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 64 65 NW 9 2680 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 69 72 NW 8 6262 4616 76 Blue 3
10 AM Mon 74 79 NW 7 11876 10883 6343 Blue 9
11 AM Mon 77 82 W 6 12304 11852 7312 Blue 12
12 Noon Mon 79 85 W 7 13020 12258 7718 Blue 15
1 PM Mon 79 85 W 7 13020 12258 7718 Blue 15
2 PM Mon 79 85 W 9 13020 12258 7718 Blue 15
3 PM Mon 79 83 W 10 12460 11948 7408 Blue 13
4 PM Mon 78 81 NW 12 12149 11766 7226 Blue 11
5 PM Mon 74 75 NW 12 9384 6233 1693 Blue 6
6 PM Mon 70 70 NW 10 5436 4540 0 Blue 1
7 PM Mon 64 64 NW 8 2680 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 60 60 N 7 2680 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 57 57 N 7 2680 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 55 55 N 8 2680 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 55 55 N 9 2680 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 54 54 N 8 2680 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 54 54 N 8 2680 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 53 53 N 9 2680 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 52 52 N 9 2680 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 51 51 N 9 2680 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 52 52 N 9 2680 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 55 55 N 8 2680 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 60 60 N 7 2680 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 65 66 NW 3 2680 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 69 71 S 1 5895 4540 0 Blue 2
10 AM Tue 73 77 SE 2 11703 7675 3135 Blue 8
11 AM Tue 77 82 SE 5 12304 11852 7312 Blue 12
12 Noon Tue 79 84 SE 5 12615 12103 7563 Blue 14
1 PM Tue 80 86 SE 2 13497 12413 7873 Blue 16
2 PM Tue 79 84 W 6 12615 12103 7563 Blue 14
3 PM Tue 79 83 W 7 12460 11948 7408 Blue 13
4 PM Tue 77 79 W 8 11876 10883 6343 Blue 9
5 PM Tue 74 75 W 8 9384 6233 1693 Blue 6
6 PM Tue 68 68 NW 9 3699 4540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 62 62 NW 9 2680 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 58 58 N 8 2680 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 56 56 N 8 2680 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 56 56 N 8 2680 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 56 56 NW 8 2680 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 54 54 NW 8 2680 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 52 52 NW 8 2680 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 50 50 NW 9 2680 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 49 49 NW 9 2680 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 50 50 NW 9 2680 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 52 52 N 7 2680 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 55 55 N 7 2680 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 59 59 N 7 2680 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 64 65 NW 9 2680 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 68 70 NW 9 5436 4540 0 Blue 1
10 AM Wed 72 76 NW 9 11521 6870 2330 Blue 7
11 AM Wed 74 79 W 10 11876 10883 6343 Blue 9
12 Noon Wed 75 81 W 10 12149 11766 7226 Blue 11
1 PM Wed 75 81 W 10 12149 11766 7226 Blue 11
2 PM Wed 74 80 W 12 11993 11671 7131 Blue 10
3 PM Wed 74 78 W 12 11790 9133 4593 Blue 9
4 PM Wed 72 75 W 12 9384 6233 1693 Blue 6
5 PM Wed 70 71 W 13 5895 4540 0 Blue 2
6 PM Wed 64 64 W 13 2680 4540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 59 59 W 13 2680 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 55 55 NW 10 2680 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 53 53 NW 10 2680 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 53 53 NW 10 2680 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 53 53 NW 8 2680 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 53 53 NW 8 2680 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 52 52 NW 8 2680 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 50 50 NW 8 2680 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 49 49 NW 8 2680 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 49 49 NW 8 2680 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 50 50 NW 9 2680 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 51 51 NW 9 2680 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 54 54 NW 9 2680 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 58 59 NW 10 2680 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 64 66 NW 10 2680 4540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 69 73 NW 10 6965 5406 866 Blue 4
11 AM Thu 73 79 W 12 11876 10883 6343 Blue 9
12 Noon Thu 75 82 W 12 12304 11852 7312 Blue 12
1 PM Thu 75 82 W 12 12304 11852 7312 Blue 12
2 PM Thu 74 80 W 14 11993 11671 7131 Blue 10
3 PM Thu 74 79 W 14 11876 10883 6343 Blue 9
4 PM Thu 73 76 W 14 11521 6870 2330 Blue 7
5 PM Thu 71 72 NW 14 6262 4616 76 Blue 3
6 PM Thu 67 67 NW 14 2680 4540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 61 61 NW 14 2680 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 56 56 NW 13 2680 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 54 54 NW 13 2680 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 53 53 NW 13 2680 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 52 52 NW 9 2680 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 52 52 NW 9 2680 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 51 51 NW 9 2680 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 50 50 NW 9 2680 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 49 49 NW 9 2680 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 48 48 NW 9 2680 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 48 48 NW 9 2680 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 49 49 NW 9 2680 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 51 51 NW 9 2680 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 54 55 NW 10 2680 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 60 62 NW 10 2680 4540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 66 70 NW 10 5436 4540 0 Blue 1
11 AM Fri 71 77 W 12 11703 7675 3135 Blue 8
12 Noon Fri 74 81 W 12 12149 11766 7226 Blue 11
1 PM Fri 75 82 W 12 12304 11852 7312 Blue 12
2 PM Fri 75 81 W 13 12149 11766 7226 Blue 11
3 PM Fri 74 79 W 13 11876 10883 6343 Blue 9
4 PM Fri 73 76 W 13 11521 6870 2330 Blue 7
5 PM Fri 70 71 W 13 5895 4540 0 Blue 2
6 PM Fri 65 65 W 13 2680 4540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 59 59 W 13 2680 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 55 55 NW 9 2680 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 52 52 NW 9 2680 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 52 52 NW 9 2680 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 51 51 NW 7 2680 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 51 51 NW 7 2680 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 50 50 NW 7 2680 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 49 49 NW 7 2680 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 48 48 NW 7 2680 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 47 47 NW 7 2680 4540 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst