Detailed Predictions for: Horse Canyon
Launch Altitude (f): 4540
LZ Altitude (f): 3300
Sounding

Station:

 KNKX

Date/Time:

 3 SEP 2010

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
5 AM Fri 64 64 NW 8 2572 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 65 65 NW 8 2572 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 66 66 NW 8 2572 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 70 70 N 5 2572 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 79 81 N 5 2962 4540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 89 93 N 5 13098 5824 1284 Blue 10
11 AM Fri 97 103 W 3 14741 14059 9519 Blue 20
12 Noon Fri 101 108 W 3 17479 17479 12939 White 25
1 PM Fri 102 109 W 3 17677 17677 13137 White 26
2 PM Fri 102 109 W 7 17677 17677 13137 White 26
3 PM Fri 102 107 W 7 17280 14867 10327 White 24
4 PM Fri 101 104 W 7 14944 14262 9722 Blue 21
5 PM Fri 97 98 NW 9 13772 13474 8934 Blue 15
6 PM Fri 89 89 NW 9 5433 4540 0 Blue 6
7 PM Fri 80 80 NW 9 2638 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 73 73 N 3 2572 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 70 70 N 3 2572 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 69 69 N 3 2572 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 69 69 N 6 2572 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 68 68 N 6 2572 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 67 67 N 6 2572 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 66 66 N 6 2572 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 65 65 N 6 2572 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 64 64 N 6 2572 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 64 64 N 5 2572 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 65 65 N 5 2572 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 67 67 N 5 2572 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 71 71 E 2 2572 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 79 81 E 2 2962 4540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 87 91 E 2 6477 4983 443 Blue 8
11 AM Sat 95 101 N 5 14335 13742 9202 Blue 18
12 Noon Sat 99 106 N 5 17080 14666 10126 White 23
1 PM Sat 102 109 N 5 17677 17677 13137 White 26
2 PM Sat 101 108 W 8 17479 17479 12939 White 25
3 PM Sat 102 107 W 8 17280 14867 10327 White 24
4 PM Sat 99 102 W 8 14538 13856 9316 Blue 19
5 PM Sat 94 95 NW 13 13503 7362 2822 Blue 12
6 PM Sat 86 86 NW 13 4113 4540 0 Blue 3
7 PM Sat 77 77 NW 13 2572 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 69 69 W 9 2572 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 66 66 W 9 2572 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 66 66 W 9 2572 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 66 66 W 5 2572 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 65 65 W 5 2572 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 64 64 W 5 2572 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 63 63 W 6 2572 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 62 62 W 6 2572 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 62 62 W 6 2572 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 62 62 W 6 2572 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 63 63 W 6 2572 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 65 65 W 6 2572 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 69 69 W 6 2572 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 77 79 W 6 2572 4540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 85 89 W 6 5433 4540 0 Blue 6
11 AM Sun 92 98 W 13 13772 13474 8934 Blue 15
12 Noon Sun 94 101 W 13 14335 13742 9202 Blue 18
1 PM Sun 94 101 W 13 14335 13742 9202 Blue 18
2 PM Sun 93 100 W 13 14131 13652 9112 Blue 17
3 PM Sun 92 97 W 13 13682 13291 8751 Blue 14
4 PM Sun 90 93 W 13 13098 5824 1284 Blue 10
5 PM Sun 87 88 W 13 5004 4540 0 Blue 5
6 PM Sun 89 89 W 13 5433 4540 0 Blue 6
7 PM Sun 82 82 W 13 3284 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 75 75 W 13 2572 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 69 69 W 13 2572 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 64 64 W 13 2572 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 62 62 SW 7 2572 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 59 59 SW 7 2572 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 57 57 SW 7 2572 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 54 54 SW 7 2572 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 53 53 SW 7 2572 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 52 52 SW 7 2572 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 51 51 SW 3 2572 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 51 51 SW 3 2572 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 54 54 SW 3 2572 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 64 64 SW 3 2572 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 77 79 SW 3 2572 4540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 84 88 SW 3 5004 4540 0 Blue 5
11 AM Mon 87 93 SW 12 13098 5824 1284 Blue 10
12 Noon Mon 89 96 SW 12 13593 11545 7005 Blue 13
1 PM Mon 90 97 SW 12 13682 13291 8751 Blue 14
2 PM Mon 91 98 SW 12 13772 13474 8934 Blue 15
3 PM Mon 90 95 SW 12 13503 7362 2822 Blue 12
4 PM Mon 90 93 SW 12 13098 5824 1284 Blue 10
5 PM Mon 88 89 W 12 5433 4540 0 Blue 6
6 PM Mon 85 85 W 12 3834 4540 0 Blue 2
7 PM Mon 79 79 W 12 2572 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 72 72 W 12 2572 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 65 65 W 12 2572 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 61 61 W 12 2572 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 59 59 SW 6 2572 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 56 56 SW 6 2572 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 54 54 SW 6 2572 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 51 51 SW 6 2572 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 50 50 SW 6 2572 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 49 49 SW 6 2572 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 48 48 SW 2 2572 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 48 48 SW 2 2572 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 51 51 SW 2 2572 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 60 60 SW 2 2572 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 72 74 SW 2 2572 4540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 78 82 SW 2 3284 4540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 81 87 SW 10 4563 4540 0 Blue 4
12 Noon Tue 83 90 SW 10 5855 4547 7 Blue 7
1 PM Tue 84 91 SW 10 6477 4983 443 Blue 8
2 PM Tue 85 92 SW 10 8240 5407 867 Blue 9
3 PM Tue 84 89 SW 10 5433 4540 0 Blue 6
4 PM Tue 84 87 SW 10 4563 4540 0 Blue 4
5 PM Tue 82 83 W 13 3603 4540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 79 79 W 13 2572 4540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 74 74 W 13 2572 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 67 67 W 13 2572 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 62 62 W 13 2572 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 58 58 W 13 2572 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 56 56 SW 5 2572 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 53 53 SW 5 2572 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 52 52 SW 5 2572 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 49 49 SW 5 2572 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 48 48 SW 5 2572 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 47 47 SW 5 2572 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 46 46 SW 3 2572 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 46 46 SW 3 2572 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 49 49 SW 3 2572 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 57 57 SW 3 2572 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 70 72 SW 3 2572 4540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 75 79 SW 3 2572 4540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 78 84 SW 12 3736 4540 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Wed 80 87 SW 12 4563 4540 0 Blue 4
1 PM Wed 81 88 SW 12 5004 4540 0 Blue 5
2 PM Wed 82 89 SW 12 5433 4540 0 Blue 6
3 PM Wed 81 86 SW 12 4113 4540 0 Blue 3
4 PM Wed 81 84 SW 12 3736 4540 0 Blue 1
5 PM Wed 80 81 W 10 2962 4540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 77 77 W 10 2572 4540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 72 72 W 10 2572 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 66 66 W 10 2572 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 61 61 W 10 2572 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 57 57 W 10 2572 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 55 55 SW 3 2572 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 53 53 SW 3 2572 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 51 51 SW 3 2572 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 49 49 SW 3 2572 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 48 48 SW 3 2572 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 47 47 SW 3 2572 4540 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst