Detailed Predictions for: Horse Canyon
Launch Altitude (f): 4540
LZ Altitude (f): 3300
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

20 JUL 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Fri 63 63 N 3 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 65 65 N 3 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 69 69 N 3 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 73 74 W 2 4089 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 77 79 W 2 5236 4540 0 Blue 4
10 AM Fri 80 84 SW 3 6636 5780 1240 Blue 9
11 AM Fri 82 87 SW 7 7611 6608 2068 Blue 12
12 Noon Fri 84 90 SW 7 9104 7521 2981 Blue 15
1 PM Fri 85 91 W 8 9442 8180 3640 Blue 16
2 PM Fri 84 89 W 10 8762 6924 2384 Blue 14
3 PM Fri 84 88 W 12 8279 6780 2240 Blue 13
4 PM Fri 83 86 W 12 6940 6333 1793 Blue 11
5 PM Fri 81 82 W 12 6081 5220 680 Blue 7
6 PM Fri 78 78 NW 10 4894 4540 0 Blue 3
7 PM Fri 74 74 NW 10 4089 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 71 71 NW 7 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 69 69 NW 6 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 68 68 NW 5 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 68 68 NW 3 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 67 67 NW 3 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 66 66 NW 3 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 65 65 NW 3 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 64 64 NW 3 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 64 64 N 3 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 65 65 N 3 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 68 68 N 3 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 72 72 NW 3 3510 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 76 77 SW 2 4646 4540 0 Blue 2
9 AM Sat 80 82 SW 3 6081 5220 680 Blue 7
10 AM Sat 84 88 SW 3 8279 6780 2240 Blue 13
11 AM Sat 86 91 SW 7 9442 8180 3640 Blue 16
12 Noon Sat 87 94 SW 7 10469 9378 4838 Blue 19
1 PM Sat 87 94 W 8 10469 9378 4838 Blue 19
2 PM Sat 88 94 W 10 10469 9378 4838 Blue 19
3 PM Sat 87 92 W 10 9777 8704 4164 Blue 17
4 PM Sat 86 90 W 10 9104 7521 2981 Blue 15
5 PM Sat 83 85 W 12 6795 6057 1517 Blue 10
6 PM Sat 80 81 NW 10 5801 4865 325 Blue 6
7 PM Sat 76 76 NW 10 4485 4540 0 Blue 1
8 PM Sat 72 72 NW 7 3510 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 70 70 NW 7 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 69 69 NW 7 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 68 68 NW 7 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 68 68 N 8 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 68 68 N 7 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 68 68 N 7 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 66 66 N 8 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 65 65 N 7 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 66 66 N 8 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 69 69 N 8 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 74 74 N 7 4089 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 79 80 NW 5 5519 4640 100 Blue 5
9 AM Sun 84 86 NW 5 6940 6333 1793 Blue 11
10 AM Sun 88 92 W 5 9777 8704 4164 Blue 17
11 AM Sun 90 96 SW 7 11171 10049 5509 Blue 21
12 Noon Sun 92 99 W 7 12270 11086 6546 White 24
1 PM Sun 91 98 W 7 12061 10739 6199 White 23
2 PM Sun 92 99 W 10 12270 11086 6546 White 24
3 PM Sun 92 98 W 9 12061 10739 6199 White 23
4 PM Sun 90 94 W 10 10469 9378 4838 Blue 19
5 PM Sun 88 90 NW 10 9104 7521 2981 Blue 15
6 PM Sun 83 84 NW 10 6636 5780 1240 Blue 9
7 PM Sun 78 78 NW 10 4894 4540 0 Blue 3
8 PM Sun 73 73 NW 10 3801 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 71 71 N 12 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 71 71 N 12 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 72 72 N 12 3510 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 72 72 N 12 3510 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 72 72 N 13 3510 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 72 72 N 12 3510 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 70 70 N 12 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 70 70 N 9 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 71 71 N 9 3366 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 75 75 N 9 4324 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 80 80 N 9 5519 4640 100 Blue 5
8 AM Mon 86 87 NE 3 7611 6608 2068 Blue 12
9 AM Mon 90 92 NE 3 9777 8704 4164 Blue 17
10 AM Mon 94 98 NE 3 12061 10739 6199 White 23
11 AM Mon 96 102 S 3 12892 12892 8352 White 27
12 Noon Mon 98 105 S 3 13510 13510 8970 White 30
1 PM Mon 100 108 S 3 14124 14124 9584 White 33
2 PM Mon 100 107 W 8 13920 13920 9380 White 32
3 PM Mon 100 106 W 8 13715 13715 9175 White 31
4 PM Mon 98 102 W 8 12892 12892 8352 White 27
5 PM Mon 95 97 W 12 11851 10391 5851 White 22
6 PM Mon 90 91 W 12 9442 8180 3640 Blue 16
7 PM Mon 84 84 W 12 6636 5780 1240 Blue 9
8 PM Mon 80 80 NW 9 5519 4640 100 Blue 5
9 PM Mon 77 77 NW 9 4646 4540 0 Blue 2
10 PM Mon 76 76 NW 9 4485 4540 0 Blue 1
11 PM Mon 75 75 NW 10 4324 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 75 75 NW 10 4324 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 75 75 NW 10 4324 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 74 74 NW 12 4089 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 73 73 NW 12 3801 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 73 73 NW 12 3801 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 74 74 N 8 4089 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 78 78 N 8 4894 4540 0 Blue 3
7 AM Tue 84 84 N 8 6636 5780 1240 Blue 9
8 AM Tue 89 90 N 3 9104 7521 2981 Blue 15
9 AM Tue 94 97 N 3 11851 10391 5851 White 22
10 AM Tue 98 102 N 3 12892 12892 8352 White 27
11 AM Tue 100 106 SW 8 13715 13715 9175 White 31
12 Noon Tue 102 109 SW 8 14324 14324 9784 White 34
1 PM Tue 102 109 SW 8 14324 14324 9784 White 34
2 PM Tue 102 109 W 12 14324 14324 9784 White 34
3 PM Tue 101 107 W 12 13920 13920 9380 White 32
4 PM Tue 100 104 W 12 13305 13305 8765 White 29
5 PM Tue 97 99 W 12 12270 11086 6546 White 24
6 PM Tue 93 94 W 12 10469 9378 4838 Blue 19
7 PM Tue 87 87 W 12 7611 6608 2068 Blue 12
8 PM Tue 83 83 NW 9 6359 5501 961 Blue 8
9 PM Tue 79 79 NW 9 5236 4540 0 Blue 4
10 PM Tue 77 77 NW 9 4646 4540 0 Blue 2
11 PM Tue 76 76 NW 8 4485 4540 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Wed 75 75 NW 8 4324 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 74 74 NW 8 4089 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 74 74 NW 10 4089 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 73 73 NW 10 3801 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 73 73 NW 10 3801 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 75 75 NW 9 4324 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 79 79 NW 9 5236 4540 0 Blue 4
7 AM Wed 85 85 NW 9 6795 6057 1517 Blue 10
8 AM Wed 90 91 N 1 9442 8180 3640 Blue 16
9 AM Wed 94 97 N 1 11851 10391 5851 White 22
10 AM Wed 97 101 N 1 12685 12685 8145 White 26
11 AM Wed 98 104 SW 8 13305 13305 8765 White 29
12 Noon Wed 100 107 SW 8 13920 13920 9380 White 32
1 PM Wed 101 109 SW 8 14324 14324 9784 White 34
2 PM Wed 101 108 W 14 14124 14124 9584 White 33
3 PM Wed 100 106 W 14 13715 13715 9175 White 31
4 PM Wed 98 102 W 14 12892 12892 8352 White 27
5 PM Wed 94 96 W 12 11171 10049 5509 Blue 21
6 PM Wed 90 91 W 12 9442 8180 3640 Blue 16
7 PM Wed 84 84 W 12 6636 5780 1240 Blue 9
8 PM Wed 80 80 NW 9 5519 4640 100 Blue 5
9 PM Wed 76 76 NW 9 4485 4540 0 Blue 1
10 PM Wed 74 74 NW 9 4089 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 72 72 NW 8 3510 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 73 73 NW 8 3801 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 73 73 NW 8 3801 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 73 73 NW 10 3801 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 72 72 NW 10 3510 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 70 70 NW 10 3366 4540 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst