Detailed Predictions for: Horse Canyon
Launch Altitude (f): 4540
LZ Altitude (f): 3300
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Wed 39 39 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Wed 39 39 S 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Wed 39 39 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Wed 38 38 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Wed 43 43 SW 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Wed 50 50 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Wed 55 55 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Wed 57 58 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Wed 58 59 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Wed 59 60 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Wed 59 59 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Wed 58 58 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Wed 56 56 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Wed 52 52 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Wed 48 48 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Wed 46 46 NW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Wed 45 45 W 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Wed 44 44 W 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Wed 43 43 W 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Wed 43 43 W 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Thu 42 42 SW 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Thu 42 42 W 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Thu 42 42 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Thu 42 42 W 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Thu 42 42 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Thu 42 42 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 42 42 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 41 41 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 45 45 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 50 50 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 53 53 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 55 55 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 55 55 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 56 56 SW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 56 56 SW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 55 55 SW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 54 54 SW 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 49 49 W 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 46 46 W 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 43 43 W 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 42 42 W 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 41 41 W 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 40 40 W 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 40 40 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 39 39 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 39 39 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 39 39 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 39 39 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 39 39 NW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 39 39 NW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 39 39 NW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 38 38 NW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 44 44 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 51 51 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 56 57 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 58 60 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 59 61 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 60 62 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 60 61 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 59 59 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 57 57 E 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 52 52 E 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 48 48 NE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 45 45 NE 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 43 43 NE 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 42 42 NE 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 42 42 NE 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 41 41 NE 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 41 41 NE 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 40 40 NE 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 41 41 NE 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 41 41 NE 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 40 40 NE 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 40 40 NE 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 40 40 NE 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 39 39 NE 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 44 44 NE 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 51 52 NE 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 56 58 NE 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 58 60 NE 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 60 63 NE 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 60 62 NE 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 60 61 NE 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 59 60 NE 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 57 57 NE 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 52 52 NE 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 49 49 NE 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 46 46 NE 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 45 45 NE 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 44 44 NE 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 44 44 NE 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 43 43 NE 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 42 42 NE 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 42 42 NE 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 42 42 NE 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 42 42 NE 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 42 42 NE 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 42 42 NE 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 42 42 NE 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 41 41 NE 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 47 47 NE 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 55 56 NE 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 62 63 NE 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 64 66 NE 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 66 68 NE 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 66 68 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 66 67 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 65 65 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 62 62 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 56 56 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 51 51 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 47 47 N 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 45 45 N 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 44 44 N 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 43 43 N 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 43 43 N 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 42 42 N 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 42 42 NW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 42 42 NW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 42 42 NW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 41 41 N 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 42 42 N 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 42 42 N 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 40 40 NE 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 45 45 NE 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 52 53 NE 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 56 58 E 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 58 60 E 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 60 63 E 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 60 62 NE 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 60 61 NE 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 59 60 NE 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 57 57 NE 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 51 51 NE 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 47 47 NE 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 44 44 NE 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 42 42 NE 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 40 40 NE 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 40 40 NE 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 39 39 NE 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 39 39 NE 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 39 39 NE 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 39 39 NE 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 39 39 NE 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst