Detailed Predictions for: Horse Canyon
Launch Altitude (f): 4540
LZ Altitude (f): 3300
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

18 MAY 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 44 44 N 9 3012 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 44 44 N 9 3012 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 46 46 N 7 3012 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 52 53 NW 5 4093 4540 0 Blue 1
9 AM Sat 57 60 NW 5 5301 4880 340 Blue 8
10 AM Sat 62 67 W 5 7116 6469 1929 Blue 15
11 AM Sat 64 69 W 9 7323 7000 2460 Blue 17
12 Noon Sat 65 71 W 10 8045 7206 2666 Blue 19
1 PM Sat 66 72 W 12 8777 7310 2770 Blue 20
2 PM Sat 66 71 W 14 8045 7206 2666 Blue 19
3 PM Sat 66 70 W 14 7426 7103 2563 Blue 18
4 PM Sat 66 69 W 14 7323 7000 2460 Blue 17
5 PM Sat 64 65 W 14 6909 5583 1043 Blue 13
6 PM Sat 62 62 W 14 5616 5183 643 Blue 10
7 PM Sat 59 59 W 13 5190 4540 0 Blue 7
8 PM Sat 55 55 W 8 4193 4540 0 Blue 3
9 PM Sat 53 53 NW 7 4093 4540 0 Blue 1
10 PM Sat 51 51 NW 6 3679 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 50 50 W 5 3260 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 48 48 W 6 3012 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 47 47 W 7 3012 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 46 46 W 9 3012 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 46 46 W 10 3012 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 44 44 W 10 3012 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 43 43 W 10 3012 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 43 43 W 12 3012 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 44 44 W 13 3012 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 46 46 W 14 3012 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 49 50 W 15 3260 4540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 51 52 SW 16 3994 4540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 52 54 SW 17 4143 4540 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Sun 52 55 SW 18 4193 4540 0 Blue 3
1 PM Sun 53 56 W 21 4518 4540 0 Blue 4
2 PM Sun 52 54 W 22 4143 4540 0 Blue 2
3 PM Sun 53 55 W 23 4193 4540 0 Blue 3
4 PM Sun 52 53 W 23 4093 4540 0 Blue 1
5 PM Sun 52 53 W 24 4093 4540 0 Blue 1
6 PM Sun 50 50 W 23 3260 4540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 49 49 W 23 3012 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 47 47 W 22 3012 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 46 46 W 22 3012 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 45 45 W 21 3012 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 44 44 W 21 3012 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 43 43 W 21 3012 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 43 43 W 21 3012 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 42 42 W 21 3012 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 42 42 W 20 3012 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 42 42 W 18 3012 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 41 41 W 18 3012 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 41 41 W 18 3012 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 42 42 W 18 3012 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 45 45 W 18 3012 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 48 49 W 18 3012 4540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 50 52 W 18 3994 4540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 52 55 W 18 4193 4540 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Mon 52 56 W 18 4518 4540 0 Blue 4
1 PM Mon 52 56 W 17 4518 4540 0 Blue 4
2 PM Mon 52 55 W 17 4193 4540 0 Blue 3
3 PM Mon 53 55 W 17 4193 4540 0 Blue 3
4 PM Mon 52 54 W 18 4143 4540 0 Blue 2
5 PM Mon 52 53 W 17 4093 4540 0 Blue 1
6 PM Mon 50 50 W 16 3260 4540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 49 49 W 15 3012 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 47 47 W 14 3012 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 46 46 W 14 3012 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 45 45 W 14 3012 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 44 44 W 14 3012 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 43 43 W 14 3012 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 43 43 W 13 3012 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 42 42 W 12 3012 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 42 42 W 12 3012 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 42 42 SW 10 3012 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 41 41 SW 9 3012 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 41 41 SW 9 3012 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 42 42 SW 9 3012 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 44 44 SW 20 3012 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 46 47 SW 20 3012 4540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 48 50 SW 20 3260 4540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 49 51 W 25 3679 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 49 51 W 25 3679 4540 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 50 52 W 25 3994 4540 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 50 52 W 29 3994 4540 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 50 51 W 29 3679 4540 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 50 51 W 29 3679 4540 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 49 49 W 30 3012 4540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 48 48 W 30 3012 4540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 46 46 W 30 3012 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 45 45 W 18 3012 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 43 43 W 18 3012 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 43 43 W 18 3012 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 42 42 W 14 3012 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 41 41 W 14 3012 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 41 41 W 14 3012 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 40 40 W 12 3012 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 40 40 W 12 3012 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 40 40 W 12 3012 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 39 39 W 9 3012 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 39 39 W 9 3012 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 40 40 W 9 3012 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 44 44 NW 10 3012 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 47 48 NW 10 3012 4540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 50 52 NW 10 3994 4540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 51 55 W 12 4193 4540 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Wed 52 56 W 12 4518 4540 0 Blue 4
1 PM Wed 52 56 W 12 4518 4540 0 Blue 4
2 PM Wed 53 57 W 13 4895 4540 0 Blue 5
3 PM Wed 53 56 W 13 4518 4540 0 Blue 4
4 PM Wed 53 55 W 13 4193 4540 0 Blue 3
5 PM Wed 52 53 W 14 4093 4540 0 Blue 1
6 PM Wed 51 51 W 14 3679 4540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 49 49 W 14 3012 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 48 48 NW 9 3012 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 46 46 NW 9 3012 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 46 46 NW 9 3012 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 45 45 N 9 3012 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 44 44 N 9 3012 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 44 44 N 9 3012 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 43 43 N 12 3012 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 43 43 N 12 3012 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 42 42 N 12 3012 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 42 42 N 8 3012 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 42 42 N 8 3012 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 44 44 N 8 3012 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 50 51 E 5 3679 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 56 58 E 5 5078 4540 0 Blue 6
10 AM Thu 60 64 E 5 6513 5426 886 Blue 12
11 AM Thu 63 68 S 6 7219 6897 2357 Blue 16
12 Noon Thu 64 69 S 6 7323 7000 2460 Blue 17
1 PM Thu 65 70 S 6 7426 7103 2563 Blue 18
2 PM Thu 66 71 NW 10 8045 7206 2666 Blue 19
3 PM Thu 66 70 NW 10 7426 7103 2563 Blue 18
4 PM Thu 65 67 NW 10 7116 6469 1929 Blue 15
5 PM Thu 64 65 NW 12 6909 5583 1043 Blue 13
6 PM Thu 62 62 NW 12 5616 5183 643 Blue 10
7 PM Thu 59 59 NW 12 5190 4540 0 Blue 7
8 PM Thu 56 56 NW 7 4518 4540 0 Blue 4
9 PM Thu 54 54 NW 7 4143 4540 0 Blue 2
10 PM Thu 53 53 NW 7 4093 4540 0 Blue 1
11 PM Thu 51 51 NW 10 3679 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 50 50 NW 10 3260 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 49 49 NW 10 3012 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 48 48 NW 10 3012 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 48 48 NW 10 3012 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 47 47 NW 10 3012 4540 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst