Detailed Predictions for: Horse Canyon
Launch Altitude (f): 4540
LZ Altitude (f): 3300
Sounding

Station:

 KNKX

Date/Time:

 20 MAR 2010

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
5 AM Sat 47 47 N 2 2671 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 46 46 N 2 2671 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 46 46 N 2 2671 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 48 48 NE 3 2671 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 56 57 NE 3 2671 4540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 63 66 NE 3 5414 4540 0 Blue 1
11 AM Sat 68 73 E 11 8284 7277 2737 Blue 8
12 Noon Sat 70 76 E 11 10832 8159 3619 Blue 11
1 PM Sat 72 78 E 11 11860 9633 5093 Blue 13
2 PM Sat 74 79 NE 13 12232 10356 5816 Blue 14
3 PM Sat 73 77 NE 13 11482 8920 4380 Blue 12
4 PM Sat 73 75 NE 13 9778 7825 3285 Blue 10
5 PM Sat 73 74 E 9 9055 7552 3012 Blue 9
6 PM Sat 69 69 E 9 7034 5327 787 Blue 4
7 PM Sat 64 64 E 9 3746 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 58 58 E 6 2671 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 55 55 E 6 2671 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 53 53 E 6 2671 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 52 52 E 7 2671 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 51 51 E 7 2671 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 51 51 E 7 2671 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 49 49 E 6 2671 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 50 50 E 6 2671 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 50 50 E 6 2671 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 50 50 E 7 2671 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 49 49 E 7 2671 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 49 49 E 7 2671 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 52 52 E 8 2671 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 60 61 E 8 3091 4540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 68 71 E 8 7590 6723 2183 Blue 6
11 AM Sun 73 77 E 9 11482 8920 4380 Blue 12
12 Noon Sun 76 81 E 9 12960 11755 7215 Blue 16
1 PM Sun 78 83 E 9 13669 12487 7947 Blue 18
2 PM Sun 80 85 E 8 14360 13199 8659 Blue 20
3 PM Sun 79 83 E 8 13669 12487 7947 Blue 18
4 PM Sun 79 81 E 8 12960 11755 7215 Blue 16
5 PM Sun 78 79 E 5 12232 10356 5816 Blue 14
6 PM Sun 73 73 E 5 8284 7277 2737 Blue 8
7 PM Sun 64 64 E 5 3746 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 55 55 NE 4 2671 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 50 50 NE 4 2671 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 47 47 NE 4 2671 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 45 45 NE 2 2671 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 44 44 NE 2 2671 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 44 44 NE 2 2671 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 42 42 NE 2 2671 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 42 42 NE 2 2671 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 42 42 NE 2 2671 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 42 42 W 3 2671 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 41 41 W 3 2671 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 41 41 W 3 2671 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 44 44 W 3 2671 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 53 54 W 3 2671 4540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 61 63 W 3 3529 4540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 66 69 W 4 7034 5327 787 Blue 4
12 Noon Mon 70 74 W 4 9055 7552 3012 Blue 9
1 PM Mon 72 76 W 4 10832 8159 3619 Blue 11
2 PM Mon 74 77 W 4 11482 8920 4380 Blue 12
3 PM Mon 73 76 W 4 10832 8159 3619 Blue 11
4 PM Mon 73 74 W 4 9055 7552 3012 Blue 9
5 PM Mon 72 72 W 13 7865 7001 2461 Blue 7
6 PM Mon 68 68 W 13 6753 4540 0 Blue 3
7 PM Mon 60 60 W 13 2872 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 52 52 W 13 2671 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 48 48 W 13 2671 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 45 45 W 13 2671 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 44 44 W 4 2671 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 43 43 W 4 2671 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 42 42 W 4 2671 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 41 41 W 4 2671 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 41 41 W 4 2671 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 41 41 W 4 2671 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 41 41 SW 4 2671 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 40 40 SW 4 2671 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 40 40 SW 4 2671 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 42 42 SW 4 2671 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 50 51 SW 4 2671 4540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 57 59 SW 4 2671 4540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 61 63 W 11 3529 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 63 65 W 11 4246 4540 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 65 68 W 11 6753 4540 0 Blue 3
2 PM Tue 67 69 W 11 7034 5327 787 Blue 4
3 PM Tue 66 68 W 11 6753 4540 0 Blue 3
4 PM Tue 66 67 W 11 6471 4540 0 Blue 2
5 PM Tue 66 66 W 12 5414 4540 0 Blue 1
6 PM Tue 61 61 W 12 3091 4540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 55 55 W 12 2671 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 48 48 W 12 2671 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 44 44 W 12 2671 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 42 42 W 12 2671 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 40 40 NW 1 2671 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 39 39 NW 1 2671 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 39 39 NW 1 2671 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 37 37 NW 1 2671 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 38 38 NW 1 2671 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 38 38 NW 1 2671 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 38 38 E 6 2671 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 37 37 E 6 2671 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 37 37 E 6 2671 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 40 40 E 6 2671 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 50 51 E 6 2671 4540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 58 60 E 6 2872 4540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 63 67 NE 5 6471 4540 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Wed 67 72 NE 5 7865 7001 2461 Blue 7
1 PM Wed 69 75 NE 5 9778 7825 3285 Blue 10
2 PM Wed 71 76 NE 5 10832 8159 3619 Blue 11
3 PM Wed 70 74 NE 5 9055 7552 3012 Blue 9
4 PM Wed 70 72 NE 5 7865 7001 2461 Blue 7
5 PM Wed 70 71 NW 4 7590 6723 2183 Blue 6
6 PM Wed 65 65 NW 4 4246 4540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 59 59 NW 4 2671 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 52 52 NW 4 2671 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 48 48 NW 4 2671 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 46 46 NW 4 2671 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 44 44 N 3 2671 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 43 43 N 3 2671 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 43 43 N 3 2671 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 41 41 N 3 2671 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 42 42 N 3 2671 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 42 42 N 3 2671 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 42 42 NE 4 2671 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 41 41 NE 4 2671 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 41 41 NE 4 2671 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 43 43 NE 4 2671 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 52 53 NE 4 2671 4540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 59 62 NE 4 3310 4540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 63 67 S 5 6471 4540 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Thu 66 71 S 5 7590 6723 2183 Blue 6
1 PM Thu 68 74 S 5 9055 7552 3012 Blue 9
2 PM Thu 70 75 S 5 9778 7825 3285 Blue 10
3 PM Thu 69 73 S 5 8284 7277 2737 Blue 8
4 PM Thu 69 71 S 5 7590 6723 2183 Blue 6
5 PM Thu 69 70 W 8 7312 6443 1903 Blue 5
6 PM Thu 65 65 W 8 4246 4540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 58 58 W 8 2671 4540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 51 51 W 8 2671 4540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 47 47 W 8 2671 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 46 46 W 8 2671 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 44 44 W 2 2671 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 43 43 W 2 2671 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 43 43 W 2 2671 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 41 41 W 2 2671 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 42 42 W 2 2671 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 42 42 W 2 2671 4540 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst