Detailed Predictions for: Horse Canyon
Launch Altitude (f): 4540
LZ Altitude (f): 3300
Sounding

Station:

 KNKX

Date/Time:

 11 MAR 2010

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
7 AM Thu 37 37 NE 9 2621 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 42 43 NE 9 3609 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 48 51 NE 9 6591 5496 956 Blue 6
10 AM Thu 54 58 NE 15 7475 7128 2588 Blue 12
11 AM Thu 57 62 NE 15 8700 7664 3124 Blue 16
12 Noon Thu 59 65 NE 15 9271 8642 4102 Blue 19
1 PM Thu 59 64 NE 12 9130 8319 3779 Blue 18
2 PM Thu 59 63 NE 12 8989 7993 3453 Blue 17
3 PM Thu 59 61 NE 12 8374 7459 2919 Blue 15
4 PM Thu 58 59 NE 7 7712 7239 2699 Blue 13
5 PM Thu 56 56 NE 7 7253 6907 2367 Blue 10
6 PM Thu 52 52 NE 7 6809 5853 1313 Blue 7
7 PM Thu 50 50 NE 5 6239 5135 595 Blue 5
8 PM Thu 47 47 NE 5 5157 4540 0 Blue 2
9 PM Thu 46 46 NE 5 4693 4540 0 Blue 1
10 PM Thu 45 45 E 4 4147 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 44 44 E 4 3879 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 43 43 E 4 3609 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 43 43 E 4 3609 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 42 42 E 4 3339 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 42 42 E 4 3339 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 41 41 NE 4 3066 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 41 41 NE 4 3066 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 40 40 NE 4 2792 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 42 42 E 3 3339 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 47 48 E 3 5522 4540 0 Blue 3
9 AM Fri 54 57 E 3 7364 7018 2478 Blue 11
10 AM Fri 60 64 W 4 9130 8319 3779 Blue 18
11 AM Fri 64 69 W 4 9833 9383 4843 Blue 23
12 Noon Fri 65 70 W 4 9974 9523 4983 Blue 24
1 PM Fri 66 71 W 6 10222 9663 5123 Blue 25
2 PM Fri 66 69 W 6 9833 9383 4843 Blue 23
3 PM Fri 66 68 W 6 9693 9243 4703 Blue 22
4 PM Fri 64 64 W 9 9130 8319 3779 Blue 18
5 PM Fri 62 62 W 9 8700 7664 3124 Blue 16
6 PM Fri 56 56 W 9 7253 6907 2367 Blue 10
7 PM Fri 53 53 W 4 6920 6205 1665 Blue 8
8 PM Fri 49 49 W 4 5882 4661 121 Blue 4
9 PM Fri 48 48 W 4 5522 4540 0 Blue 3
10 PM Fri 46 46 W 5 4693 4540 0 Blue 1
11 PM Fri 45 45 W 5 4147 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 44 44 W 5 3879 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 43 43 W 3 3609 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 42 42 W 3 3339 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 42 42 W 3 3339 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 40 40 W 6 2792 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 40 40 W 6 2792 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 39 39 W 6 2621 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 40 40 W 6 2792 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 44 45 W 6 4147 4540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 48 50 W 6 6239 5135 595 Blue 5
10 AM Sat 53 56 W 13 7253 6907 2367 Blue 10
11 AM Sat 55 59 W 13 7712 7239 2699 Blue 13
12 Noon Sat 56 60 W 13 8045 7349 2809 Blue 14
1 PM Sat 57 61 W 13 8374 7459 2919 Blue 15
2 PM Sat 56 59 W 13 7712 7239 2699 Blue 13
3 PM Sat 56 58 W 13 7475 7128 2588 Blue 12
4 PM Sat 55 55 W 16 7142 6797 2257 Blue 9
5 PM Sat 54 54 W 16 7031 6554 2014 Blue 9
6 PM Sat 50 50 W 16 6239 5135 595 Blue 5
7 PM Sat 48 48 W 16 5522 4540 0 Blue 3
8 PM Sat 46 46 W 16 4693 4540 0 Blue 1
9 PM Sat 45 45 W 16 4147 4540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 44 44 W 6 3879 4540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 43 43 W 6 3609 4540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 42 42 W 6 3339 4540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 42 42 W 6 3339 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 41 41 W 6 3066 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 41 41 W 6 3066 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 40 40 NE 6 2792 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 40 40 NE 6 2792 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 39 39 NE 6 2621 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 41 41 NE 6 3066 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 46 47 NE 6 5157 4540 0 Blue 2
9 AM Sun 53 55 NE 6 7142 6797 2257 Blue 9
10 AM Sun 59 63 NE 9 8989 7993 3453 Blue 17
11 AM Sun 62 67 NE 9 9552 9103 4563 Blue 21
12 Noon Sun 64 69 NE 9 9833 9383 4843 Blue 23
1 PM Sun 64 69 NE 9 9833 9383 4843 Blue 23
2 PM Sun 64 68 NE 9 9693 9243 4703 Blue 22
3 PM Sun 64 66 NE 9 9411 8962 4422 Blue 20
4 PM Sun 62 63 NE 11 8989 7993 3453 Blue 17
5 PM Sun 61 61 NE 11 8374 7459 2919 Blue 15
6 PM Sun 56 56 NE 11 7253 6907 2367 Blue 10
7 PM Sun 53 53 NE 11 6920 6205 1665 Blue 8
8 PM Sun 51 51 NE 11 6591 5496 956 Blue 6
9 PM Sun 49 49 NE 11 5882 4661 121 Blue 4
10 PM Sun 48 48 NE 13 5522 4540 0 Blue 3
11 PM Sun 47 47 NE 13 5157 4540 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Mon 46 46 NE 13 4693 4540 0 Blue 1
1 AM Mon 45 45 NE 13 4147 4540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 45 45 NE 13 4147 4540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 44 44 NE 13 3879 4540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 43 43 NE 9 3609 4540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 43 43 NE 9 3609 4540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 42 42 NE 9 3339 4540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 44 44 NE 9 3879 4540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 50 51 NE 9 6591 5496 956 Blue 6
9 AM Mon 57 60 NE 9 8045 7349 2809 Blue 14
10 AM Mon 64 68 E 12 9693 9243 4703 Blue 22
11 AM Mon 68 74 E 12 11632 10156 5616 Blue 28
12 Noon Mon 69 75 E 12 12285 10439 5899 Blue 29
1 PM Mon 70 75 E 12 12285 10439 5899 Blue 29
2 PM Mon 70 74 E 12 11632 10156 5616 Blue 28
3 PM Mon 70 72 E 12 10507 9803 5263 Blue 26
4 PM Mon 68 69 NE 12 9833 9383 4843 Blue 23
5 PM Mon 66 66 NE 12 9411 8962 4422 Blue 20
6 PM Mon 62 62 NE 12 8700 7664 3124 Blue 16
7 PM Mon 59 59 NE 12 7712 7239 2699 Blue 13
8 PM Mon 56 56 NE 12 7253 6907 2367 Blue 10
9 PM Mon 55 55 NE 12 7142 6797 2257 Blue 9
10 PM Mon 53 53 E 11 6920 6205 1665 Blue 8
11 PM Mon 52 52 E 11 6809 5853 1313 Blue 7
12 Midnight Tue 51 51 E 11 6591 5496 956 Blue 6
1 AM Tue 50 50 E 11 6239 5135 595 Blue 5
2 AM Tue 50 50 E 11 6239 5135 595 Blue 5
3 AM Tue 49 49 E 11 5882 4661 121 Blue 4
4 AM Tue 48 48 E 10 5522 4540 0 Blue 3
5 AM Tue 48 48 E 10 5522 4540 0 Blue 3
6 AM Tue 47 47 E 10 5157 4540 0 Blue 2
7 AM Tue 49 49 E 10 5882 4661 121 Blue 4
8 AM Tue 54 55 E 10 7142 6797 2257 Blue 9
9 AM Tue 61 64 E 10 9130 8319 3779 Blue 18
10 AM Tue 67 71 E 11 10222 9663 5123 Blue 25
11 AM Tue 70 75 E 11 12285 10439 5899 Blue 29
12 Noon Tue 72 77 E 11 13497 11445 6905 Blue 31
1 PM Tue 72 77 E 11 13497 11445 6905 Blue 31
2 PM Tue 72 76 E 11 12905 10759 6219 Blue 30
3 PM Tue 72 74 E 11 11632 10156 5616 Blue 28
4 PM Tue 70 71 E 11 10222 9663 5123 Blue 25
5 PM Tue 68 68 E 11 9693 9243 4703 Blue 22
6 PM Tue 64 64 E 11 9130 8319 3779 Blue 18
7 PM Tue 60 60 E 11 8045 7349 2809 Blue 14
8 PM Tue 57 57 E 11 7364 7018 2478 Blue 11
9 PM Tue 56 56 E 11 7253 6907 2367 Blue 10
10 PM Tue 54 54 E 7 7031 6554 2014 Blue 9
11 PM Tue 53 53 E 7 6920 6205 1665 Blue 8
12 Midnight Wed 52 52 E 7 6809 5853 1313 Blue 7
1 AM Wed 51 51 E 7 6591 5496 956 Blue 6
2 AM Wed 51 51 E 7 6591 5496 956 Blue 6
3 AM Wed 51 51 E 7 6591 5496 956 Blue 6
4 AM Wed 49 49 NE 4 5882 4661 121 Blue 4
5 AM Wed 49 49 NE 4 5882 4661 121 Blue 4
6 AM Wed 48 48 NE 4 5522 4540 0 Blue 3

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst