Detailed Predictions for: Big Black
Launch Altitude (f): 3900
LZ Altitude (f): 1645
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

25 MAR 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Mon 52 52 SE 7 3297 3900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 54 54 SE 7 3297 3900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 53 53 E 7 3297 3900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 53 53 E 7 3297 3900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 55 56 E 6 3297 3900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 56 59 SE 5 3359 3900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 58 63 SW 3 4428 3900 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Mon 60 66 SW 5 6415 4421 521 Blue 4
1 PM Mon 62 68 SW 6 7719 5143 1243 Blue 6
2 PM Mon 63 68 W 8 7719 5143 1243 Blue 6
3 PM Mon 62 66 W 9 6415 4421 521 Blue 4
4 PM Mon 61 63 W 9 4428 3900 0 Blue 1
5 PM Mon 61 62 W 8 3958 3900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 58 58 W 7 3297 3900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 55 55 W 6 3297 3900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 54 54 W 1 3297 3900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 55 55 E 1 3297 3900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 56 56 NE 1 3297 3900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 54 54 NE 2 3297 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 53 53 NE 2 3297 3900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 53 53 NE 1 3297 3900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 53 53 NE 1 3297 3900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 54 54 N 1 3297 3900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 54 54 N 1 3297 3900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 52 52 N 1 3297 3900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 53 53 N 1 3297 3900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 52 52 N 2 3297 3900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 53 53 N 2 3297 3900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 55 56 N 3 3297 3900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 55 57 NW 5 3297 3900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 57 60 W 6 3543 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 59 62 W 8 3958 3900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 60 63 W 9 4428 3900 0 Blue 1
2 PM Tue 61 64 W 10 4642 3900 0 Blue 2
3 PM Tue 60 62 W 10 3958 3900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 58 59 W 10 3359 3900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 58 58 W 9 3297 3900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 55 55 W 8 3297 3900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 51 51 W 6 3297 3900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 51 51 W 5 3297 3900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 51 51 W 3 3297 3900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 52 52 NW 3 3297 3900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 50 50 NW 3 3297 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 49 49 NW 3 3297 3900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 50 50 NW 5 3297 3900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 49 49 NW 5 3297 3900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 50 50 W 5 3297 3900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 50 50 W 5 3297 3900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 48 48 W 3 3297 3900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 49 49 W 3 3297 3900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 48 48 W 3 3297 3900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 49 49 W 3 3297 3900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 50 50 W 6 3297 3900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 50 51 W 8 3297 3900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 51 53 W 10 3297 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 52 55 W 13 3297 3900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 53 56 W 15 3297 3900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 53 56 W 17 3297 3900 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 52 54 W 18 3297 3900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 51 52 W 18 3297 3900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 51 51 W 17 3297 3900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 48 48 W 15 3297 3900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 46 46 NW 12 3297 3900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 45 45 NW 9 3297 3900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 46 46 NW 8 3297 3900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 46 46 W 8 3297 3900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 45 45 W 8 3297 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 44 44 NW 7 3297 3900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 44 44 NW 6 3297 3900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 44 44 NW 6 3297 3900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 44 44 NW 7 3297 3900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 45 45 NW 8 3297 3900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 43 43 NW 8 3297 3900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 44 44 NW 8 3297 3900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 44 44 NW 8 3297 3900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 44 44 NW 5 3297 3900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 46 47 NW 5 3297 3900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 46 48 NW 5 3297 3900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 48 52 W 8 3297 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 50 55 W 8 3297 3900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 52 57 W 8 3297 3900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 54 59 W 13 3359 3900 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 52 56 W 13 3297 3900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 52 54 W 13 3297 3900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 52 53 W 13 3297 3900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 50 50 W 13 3297 3900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 47 47 W 13 3297 3900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 47 47 W 8 3297 3900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 47 47 W 8 3297 3900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 48 48 W 8 3297 3900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 46 46 W 7 3297 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 46 46 W 7 3297 3900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 46 46 W 7 3297 3900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 46 46 NW 8 3297 3900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 46 46 NW 8 3297 3900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 46 46 NW 8 3297 3900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 45 45 NW 12 3297 3900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 47 47 NW 12 3297 3900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 46 46 NW 12 3297 3900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 46 46 NW 8 3297 3900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 49 50 NW 8 3297 3900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 50 53 NW 8 3297 3900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 52 56 NW 8 3297 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 55 60 NW 8 3543 3900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 57 62 NW 8 3958 3900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 60 65 W 10 5215 3949 49 Blue 3
3 PM Fri 57 61 W 10 3726 3900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 56 58 W 10 3297 3900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 56 57 W 12 3297 3900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 52 52 W 12 3297 3900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 47 47 W 12 3297 3900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 46 46 NW 6 3297 3900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 47 47 NW 6 3297 3900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 48 48 NW 6 3297 3900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 46 46 N 7 3297 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 44 44 N 7 3297 3900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 45 45 N 7 3297 3900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 44 44 NE 10 3297 3900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 45 45 NE 10 3297 3900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 46 46 NE 10 3297 3900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 43 43 NE 14 3297 3900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 46 46 NE 14 3297 3900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 44 44 NE 14 3297 3900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 45 45 NE 14 3297 3900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 48 49 NE 14 3297 3900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 48 51 NE 14 3297 3900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 52 56 E 13 3297 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 55 60 E 13 3543 3900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 58 63 E 13 4428 3900 0 Blue 1
2 PM Sat 61 66 NE 14 6415 4421 521 Blue 4
3 PM Sat 58 62 NE 14 3958 3900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 57 59 NE 14 3359 3900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 57 58 NE 14 3297 3900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 54 54 NE 14 3297 3900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 49 49 NE 14 3297 3900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 49 49 NE 9 3297 3900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 49 49 NE 9 3297 3900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 50 50 NE 9 3297 3900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 48 48 NE 9 3297 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 47 47 NE 9 3297 3900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 48 48 NE 9 3297 3900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 47 47 NE 13 3297 3900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 48 48 NE 13 3297 3900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 48 48 NE 13 3297 3900 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst