Detailed Predictions for: Big Black
Launch Altitude (f): 3900
LZ Altitude (f): 1645
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

22 APR 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 59 59 N 6 2680 3900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 61 61 N 5 2680 3900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 64 64 N 3 2680 3900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 67 68 N 2 3926 3900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 69 71 NW 3 6000 3910 10 Blue 2
10 AM Sun 70 74 W 5 8271 5963 2063 Blue 5
11 AM Sun 71 76 W 6 11570 7064 3164 Blue 7
12 Noon Sun 72 78 W 8 11811 9436 5536 Blue 9
1 PM Sun 71 77 W 10 11724 8024 4124 Blue 8
2 PM Sun 72 77 W 12 11724 8024 4124 Blue 8
3 PM Sun 70 74 W 12 8271 5963 2063 Blue 5
4 PM Sun 69 72 W 10 6336 4819 919 Blue 3
5 PM Sun 66 67 W 9 2887 3900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 65 65 W 8 2680 3900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 63 63 W 7 2680 3900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 62 62 NW 2 2680 3900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 61 61 NW 3 2680 3900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 61 61 NW 5 2680 3900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 61 61 NW 6 2680 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 61 61 N 6 2680 3900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 61 61 N 6 2680 3900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 60 60 N 6 2680 3900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 60 60 N 5 2680 3900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 59 59 N 5 2680 3900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 59 59 N 6 2680 3900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 61 61 N 6 2680 3900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 63 63 N 6 2680 3900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 65 66 NW 3 2680 3900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 67 70 NW 2 5542 3900 0 Blue 1
10 AM Mon 68 73 NW 3 7162 5512 1612 Blue 4
11 AM Mon 69 75 W 7 9687 6307 2407 Blue 6
12 Noon Mon 71 78 W 8 11811 9436 5536 Blue 9
1 PM Mon 72 79 W 8 11897 11514 7614 Blue 10
2 PM Mon 71 77 W 10 11724 8024 4124 Blue 8
3 PM Mon 71 76 W 10 11570 7064 3164 Blue 7
4 PM Mon 70 73 W 10 7162 5512 1612 Blue 4
5 PM Mon 68 69 W 9 4859 3900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 66 66 W 7 2680 3900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 64 64 W 5 2680 3900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 62 62 NW 2 2680 3900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 61 61 NW 2 2680 3900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 60 60 NW 2 2680 3900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 59 59 NW 3 2680 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 59 59 NW 5 2680 3900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 58 58 NW 5 2680 3900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 58 58 NW 6 2680 3900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 57 57 NW 5 2680 3900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 57 57 NW 5 2680 3900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 58 58 NW 5 2680 3900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 60 60 N 5 2680 3900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 62 62 N 5 2680 3900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 65 66 NW 2 2680 3900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 68 70 NW 3 5542 3900 0 Blue 1
10 AM Tue 69 73 NW 3 7162 5512 1612 Blue 4
11 AM Tue 70 75 W 6 9687 6307 2407 Blue 6
12 Noon Tue 71 76 W 7 11570 7064 3164 Blue 7
1 PM Tue 70 75 W 7 9687 6307 2407 Blue 6
2 PM Tue 71 76 W 8 11570 7064 3164 Blue 7
3 PM Tue 70 74 W 8 8271 5963 2063 Blue 5
4 PM Tue 69 71 W 8 6000 3910 10 Blue 2
5 PM Tue 68 69 W 7 4859 3900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 66 66 W 6 2680 3900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 64 64 W 5 2680 3900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 62 62 W 2 2680 3900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 60 60 W 2 2680 3900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 60 60 W 2 2680 3900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 59 59 N 3 2680 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 58 58 N 3 2680 3900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 57 57 N 3 2680 3900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 57 57 W 2 2680 3900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 56 56 W 2 2680 3900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 56 56 W 2 2680 3900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 56 56 NW 5 2680 3900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 58 58 NW 5 2680 3900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 60 60 NW 5 2680 3900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 61 62 NW 6 2680 3900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 62 64 NW 6 2680 3900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 63 66 NW 6 2680 3900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 64 69 W 8 4859 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 66 72 W 8 6336 4819 919 Blue 3
1 PM Wed 67 73 W 8 7162 5512 1612 Blue 4
2 PM Wed 68 74 W 10 8271 5963 2063 Blue 5
3 PM Wed 68 72 W 10 6336 4819 919 Blue 3
4 PM Wed 67 70 W 10 5542 3900 0 Blue 1
5 PM Wed 66 67 W 10 2887 3900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 65 65 W 10 2680 3900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 63 63 W 10 2680 3900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 62 62 NW 7 2680 3900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 60 60 NW 7 2680 3900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 59 59 NW 7 2680 3900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 58 58 NW 3 2680 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 57 57 NW 3 2680 3900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 56 56 NW 3 2680 3900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 56 56 NW 3 2680 3900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 55 55 NW 3 2680 3900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 54 54 NW 3 2680 3900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 54 54 NW 6 2680 3900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 56 56 NW 6 2680 3900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 59 59 NW 6 2680 3900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 61 62 NW 7 2680 3900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 63 65 NW 7 2680 3900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 64 68 NW 7 3926 3900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 64 69 W 9 4859 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 66 72 W 9 6336 4819 919 Blue 3
1 PM Thu 66 73 W 9 7162 5512 1612 Blue 4
2 PM Thu 67 73 W 12 7162 5512 1612 Blue 4
3 PM Thu 67 71 W 12 6000 3910 10 Blue 2
4 PM Thu 67 70 W 12 5542 3900 0 Blue 1
5 PM Thu 66 67 W 12 2887 3900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 64 64 W 12 2680 3900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 63 63 W 12 2680 3900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 61 61 W 8 2680 3900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 59 59 W 8 2680 3900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 58 58 W 8 2680 3900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 57 57 W 3 2680 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 56 56 W 3 2680 3900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 55 55 W 3 2680 3900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 55 55 W 2 2680 3900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 54 54 W 2 2680 3900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 53 53 W 2 2680 3900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 53 53 NW 5 2680 3900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 54 54 NW 5 2680 3900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 55 55 NW 5 2680 3900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 56 57 W 6 2680 3900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 59 61 W 6 2680 3900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 61 65 W 6 2680 3900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 63 69 W 8 4859 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 65 72 W 8 6336 4819 919 Blue 3
1 PM Fri 67 74 W 8 8271 5963 2063 Blue 5
2 PM Fri 67 73 W 10 7162 5512 1612 Blue 4
3 PM Fri 66 71 W 10 6000 3910 10 Blue 2
4 PM Fri 64 67 W 10 2887 3900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 62 63 W 10 2680 3900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 61 61 W 10 2680 3900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 59 59 W 10 2680 3900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 58 58 W 7 2680 3900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 56 56 W 7 2680 3900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 55 55 W 7 2680 3900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 54 54 W 3 2680 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 54 54 W 3 2680 3900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 53 53 W 3 2680 3900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 53 53 NW 2 2680 3900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 52 52 NW 2 2680 3900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 52 52 NW 2 2680 3900 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst