Detailed Predictions for: Big Black
Launch Altitude (f): 3900
LZ Altitude (f): 1645
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Wed 46 46 SW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Wed 46 46 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Wed 46 46 S 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Wed 46 46 S 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Wed 48 48 S 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Wed 52 52 S 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Wed 53 53 S 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Wed 54 54 SW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Wed 55 56 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Wed 55 55 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Wed 55 55 SW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Wed 55 55 SW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Wed 54 54 SW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Wed 52 52 SW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Wed 51 51 SW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Wed 50 50 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Wed 51 51 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Wed 51 51 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Wed 51 51 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Wed 51 51 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Thu 52 52 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Thu 51 51 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Thu 52 52 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Thu 52 52 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Thu 50 50 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Thu 52 52 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 50 50 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 50 50 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 50 50 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 52 52 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 52 52 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 52 52 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 53 53 SW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 52 52 SW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 52 52 SW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 52 52 SW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 50 50 SW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 47 47 SW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 46 46 SW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 46 46 W 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 46 46 W 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 47 47 W 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 46 46 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 46 46 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 48 48 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 46 46 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 47 47 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 47 47 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 45 45 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 47 47 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 46 46 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 45 45 W 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 46 46 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 50 50 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 51 52 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 52 54 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 53 55 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 53 54 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 54 55 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 53 53 NW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 53 53 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 52 52 NW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 52 52 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 51 51 NE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 52 52 E 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 52 52 E 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 52 52 E 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 52 52 E 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 52 52 NE 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 52 52 NE 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 52 52 NE 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 52 52 NE 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 51 51 NE 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 52 52 NE 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 51 51 NE 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 51 51 E 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 52 52 E 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 56 57 E 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 57 59 E 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 58 60 E 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 59 62 E 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 60 62 E 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 60 61 E 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 59 60 E 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 58 58 E 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 56 56 E 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 56 56 E 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 55 55 E 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 56 56 E 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 56 56 E 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 56 56 E 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 56 56 E 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 57 57 E 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 56 56 E 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 56 56 E 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 56 56 E 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 55 55 E 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 56 56 E 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 55 55 E 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 55 55 E 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 56 56 E 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 60 61 E 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 61 62 E 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 62 64 E 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 63 65 E 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 64 66 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 63 64 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 62 62 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 60 60 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 55 55 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 54 54 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 52 52 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 53 53 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 54 54 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 53 53 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 53 53 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 56 56 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 53 53 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 54 54 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 55 55 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 52 52 N 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 54 54 N 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 52 52 N 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 51 51 NE 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 52 52 NE 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 55 56 NE 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 56 58 E 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 56 58 E 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 58 60 E 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 58 60 E 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 57 58 E 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 56 56 E 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 54 54 E 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 50 50 E 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 49 49 E 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 48 48 NE 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 49 49 NE 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 50 50 NE 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 49 49 NE 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 49 49 NE 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 51 51 NE 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 49 49 NE 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 50 50 NE 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 50 50 NE 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst