Detailed Predictions for: Big Black
Launch Altitude (f): 3900
LZ Altitude (f): 1645
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

21 JAN 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Sun 36 36 S 5 2739 3900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 35 35 SE 5 2739 3900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 35 35 SE 5 2739 3900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 36 36 SE 3 2739 3900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 39 39 SE 3 2739 3900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 42 43 S 3 3982 3900 0 Blue 1
10 AM Sun 45 46 S 3 5515 3976 76 Blue 4
11 AM Sun 48 50 S 3 6563 5634 1734 Blue 8
12 Noon Sun 50 52 S 3 7554 5891 1991 Blue 10
1 PM Sun 52 54 S 2 7973 7317 3417 Blue 12
2 PM Sun 53 54 SW 2 7973 7317 3417 Blue 12
3 PM Sun 52 52 SW 2 7554 5891 1991 Blue 10
4 PM Sun 51 51 W 6 7344 5763 1863 Blue 9
5 PM Sun 47 47 W 6 5644 4288 388 Blue 5
6 PM Sun 42 42 NW 3 3665 3900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 39 39 N 5 2739 3900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 39 39 N 6 2739 3900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 41 41 NE 6 2739 3900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 44 44 NE 7 4297 3900 0 Blue 2
11 PM Sun 42 42 NE 7 3665 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 42 42 NE 6 3665 3900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 43 43 NE 7 3982 3900 0 Blue 1
2 AM Mon 44 44 NE 6 4297 3900 0 Blue 2
3 AM Mon 44 44 NE 6 4297 3900 0 Blue 2
4 AM Mon 44 44 E 6 4297 3900 0 Blue 2
5 AM Mon 44 44 E 6 4297 3900 0 Blue 2
6 AM Mon 43 43 E 6 3982 3900 0 Blue 1
7 AM Mon 43 43 E 7 3982 3900 0 Blue 1
8 AM Mon 45 45 E 7 5138 3900 0 Blue 3
9 AM Mon 48 48 E 7 5773 5123 1223 Blue 6
10 AM Mon 50 51 E 6 7344 5763 1863 Blue 9
11 AM Mon 53 55 E 6 8147 7525 3625 Blue 13
12 Noon Mon 55 57 E 7 8407 7941 4041 Blue 15
1 PM Mon 56 58 E 7 8907 8128 4228 Blue 16
2 PM Mon 57 58 E 8 8907 8128 4228 Blue 16
3 PM Mon 56 56 E 8 8266 7734 3834 Blue 14
4 PM Mon 56 56 E 7 8266 7734 3834 Blue 14
5 PM Mon 52 52 NE 7 7554 5891 1991 Blue 10
6 PM Mon 48 48 NE 9 5773 5123 1223 Blue 6
7 PM Mon 46 46 NE 13 5515 3976 76 Blue 4
8 PM Mon 46 46 NE 13 5515 3976 76 Blue 4
9 PM Mon 47 47 NE 14 5644 4288 388 Blue 5
10 PM Mon 47 47 NE 14 5644 4288 388 Blue 5
11 PM Mon 47 47 NE 13 5644 4288 388 Blue 5
12 Midnight Tue 47 47 NE 12 5644 4288 388 Blue 5
1 AM Tue 46 46 NE 10 5515 3976 76 Blue 4
2 AM Tue 46 46 NE 10 5515 3976 76 Blue 4
3 AM Tue 47 47 NE 10 5644 4288 388 Blue 5
4 AM Tue 47 47 NE 12 5644 4288 388 Blue 5
5 AM Tue 47 47 NE 14 5644 4288 388 Blue 5
6 AM Tue 47 47 NE 15 5644 4288 388 Blue 5
7 AM Tue 48 48 NE 18 5773 5123 1223 Blue 6
8 AM Tue 51 51 E 20 7344 5763 1863 Blue 9
9 AM Tue 54 55 NE 21 8147 7525 3625 Blue 13
10 AM Tue 57 59 E 21 9393 8247 4347 Blue 17
11 AM Tue 60 62 E 22 10377 9297 5397 Blue 20
12 Noon Tue 62 65 E 21 10807 10343 6443 Blue 23
1 PM Tue 62 64 E 20 10664 10200 6300 Blue 22
2 PM Tue 63 65 E 20 10807 10343 6443 Blue 23
3 PM Tue 61 62 E 18 10377 9297 5397 Blue 20
4 PM Tue 59 59 E 18 9393 8247 4347 Blue 17
5 PM Tue 59 59 E 18 9393 8247 4347 Blue 17
6 PM Tue 59 59 E 18 9393 8247 4347 Blue 17
7 PM Tue 60 60 E 18 9868 8366 4466 Blue 18
8 PM Tue 60 60 E 20 9868 8366 4466 Blue 18
9 PM Tue 59 59 E 20 9393 8247 4347 Blue 17
10 PM Tue 58 58 E 18 8907 8128 4228 Blue 16
11 PM Tue 55 55 E 18 8147 7525 3625 Blue 13
12 Midnight Wed 53 53 E 17 7764 6433 2533 Blue 11
1 AM Wed 52 52 E 17 7554 5891 1991 Blue 10
2 AM Wed 52 52 E 17 7554 5891 1991 Blue 10
3 AM Wed 53 53 E 17 7764 6433 2533 Blue 11
4 AM Wed 53 53 E 10 7764 6433 2533 Blue 11
5 AM Wed 52 52 E 10 7554 5891 1991 Blue 10
6 AM Wed 51 51 E 10 7344 5763 1863 Blue 9
7 AM Wed 51 51 E 9 7344 5763 1863 Blue 9
8 AM Wed 53 53 E 9 7764 6433 2533 Blue 11
9 AM Wed 55 56 E 9 8266 7734 3834 Blue 14
10 AM Wed 58 60 SE 8 9868 8366 4466 Blue 18
11 AM Wed 61 63 SE 8 10520 9766 5866 Blue 21
12 Noon Wed 64 66 SE 8 11023 10486 6586 Blue 24
1 PM Wed 65 67 S 8 11283 10628 6728 Blue 25
2 PM Wed 64 65 S 8 10807 10343 6443 Blue 23
3 PM Wed 63 64 S 8 10664 10200 6300 Blue 22
4 PM Wed 62 62 W 7 10377 9297 5397 Blue 20
5 PM Wed 61 61 W 7 10233 8816 4916 Blue 19
6 PM Wed 60 60 W 7 9868 8366 4466 Blue 18
7 PM Wed 59 59 SW 6 9393 8247 4347 Blue 17
8 PM Wed 58 58 SW 6 8907 8128 4228 Blue 16
9 PM Wed 57 57 SW 6 8407 7941 4041 Blue 15
10 PM Wed 55 55 S 5 8147 7525 3625 Blue 13
11 PM Wed 54 54 S 5 7973 7317 3417 Blue 12
12 Midnight Thu 52 52 S 5 7554 5891 1991 Blue 10
1 AM Thu 51 51 SW 5 7344 5763 1863 Blue 9
2 AM Thu 50 50 SW 5 6563 5634 1734 Blue 8
3 AM Thu 49 49 SW 5 5902 5506 1606 Blue 7
4 AM Thu 48 48 SW 6 5773 5123 1223 Blue 6
5 AM Thu 47 47 SW 6 5644 4288 388 Blue 5
6 AM Thu 46 46 SW 6 5515 3976 76 Blue 4
7 AM Thu 46 46 SW 9 5515 3976 76 Blue 4
8 AM Thu 49 49 SW 9 5902 5506 1606 Blue 7
9 AM Thu 53 53 SW 9 7764 6433 2533 Blue 11
10 AM Thu 54 54 W 14 7973 7317 3417 Blue 12
11 AM Thu 53 54 W 14 7973 7317 3417 Blue 12
12 Noon Thu 51 52 W 14 7554 5891 1991 Blue 10
1 PM Thu 49 50 W 16 6563 5634 1734 Blue 8
2 PM Thu 48 48 W 16 5773 5123 1223 Blue 6
3 PM Thu 49 49 W 16 5902 5506 1606 Blue 7
4 PM Thu 50 50 W 17 6563 5634 1734 Blue 8
5 PM Thu 50 50 W 17 6563 5634 1734 Blue 8
6 PM Thu 49 49 W 17 5902 5506 1606 Blue 7
7 PM Thu 48 48 W 15 5773 5123 1223 Blue 6
8 PM Thu 47 47 W 15 5644 4288 388 Blue 5
9 PM Thu 46 46 W 15 5515 3976 76 Blue 4
10 PM Thu 45 45 NW 12 5138 3900 0 Blue 3
11 PM Thu 44 44 NW 12 4297 3900 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Fri 43 43 NW 12 3982 3900 0 Blue 1
1 AM Fri 43 43 NW 9 3982 3900 0 Blue 1
2 AM Fri 43 43 NW 9 3982 3900 0 Blue 1
3 AM Fri 43 43 NW 9 3982 3900 0 Blue 1
4 AM Fri 43 43 NW 7 3982 3900 0 Blue 1
5 AM Fri 42 42 NW 7 3665 3900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 42 42 NW 7 3665 3900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 42 42 W 6 3665 3900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 43 43 W 6 3982 3900 0 Blue 1
9 AM Fri 44 45 W 6 5138 3900 0 Blue 3
10 AM Fri 46 48 SW 5 5773 5123 1223 Blue 6
11 AM Fri 48 50 SW 5 6563 5634 1734 Blue 8
12 Noon Fri 50 52 SW 5 7554 5891 1991 Blue 10
1 PM Fri 53 55 W 5 8147 7525 3625 Blue 13
2 PM Fri 55 56 W 5 8266 7734 3834 Blue 14
3 PM Fri 56 57 W 5 8407 7941 4041 Blue 15
4 PM Fri 57 57 NW 7 8407 7941 4041 Blue 15
5 PM Fri 56 56 NW 7 8266 7734 3834 Blue 14
6 PM Fri 52 52 NW 7 7554 5891 1991 Blue 10
7 PM Fri 49 49 N 12 5902 5506 1606 Blue 7
8 PM Fri 48 48 N 12 5773 5123 1223 Blue 6
9 PM Fri 48 48 N 12 5773 5123 1223 Blue 6
10 PM Fri 49 49 NE 17 5902 5506 1606 Blue 7
11 PM Fri 49 49 NE 17 5902 5506 1606 Blue 7
12 Midnight Sat 49 49 NE 17 5902 5506 1606 Blue 7
1 AM Sat 49 49 E 20 5902 5506 1606 Blue 7
2 AM Sat 48 48 E 20 5773 5123 1223 Blue 6
3 AM Sat 48 48 E 20 5773 5123 1223 Blue 6

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst