Detailed Predictions for: Big Black
Launch Altitude (f): 3900
LZ Altitude (f): 1645
Sounding

Station:

 KNKX

Date/Time:

 18 MAY 2012

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
5 AM Fri 50 50 S 6 3346 3900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 50 50 S 6 3346 3900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 53 53 S 6 3346 3900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 59 60 SW 5 3380 3900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 60 62 SW 5 3682 3900 0 Blue 1
10 AM Fri 61 64 SW 5 4154 3900 0 Blue 3
11 AM Fri 60 67 W 7 4866 4148 248 Blue 6
12 Noon Fri 61 69 W 7 5237 4607 707 Blue 8
1 PM Fri 61 69 W 7 5237 4607 707 Blue 8
2 PM Fri 61 68 W 12 5081 4378 478 Blue 7
3 PM Fri 61 67 W 12 4866 4148 248 Blue 6
4 PM Fri 62 66 W 12 4615 3913 13 Blue 5
5 PM Fri 60 62 W 9 3682 3900 0 Blue 1
6 PM Fri 59 59 W 9 3346 3900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 56 56 W 9 3346 3900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 51 51 W 3 3346 3900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 51 51 W 3 3346 3900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 52 52 W 3 3346 3900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 54 54 N 3 3346 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 54 54 N 3 3346 3900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 53 53 N 3 3346 3900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 52 52 N 3 3346 3900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 52 52 N 3 3346 3900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 53 53 N 3 3346 3900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 52 52 N 5 3346 3900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 52 52 N 5 3346 3900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 58 58 N 5 3346 3900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 67 68 NE 1 5081 4378 478 Blue 7
9 AM Sat 67 70 NE 1 5413 4852 952 Blue 9
10 AM Sat 69 74 NE 1 6884 5760 1860 Blue 13
11 AM Sat 69 76 SW 5 15092 6487 2587 Blue 15
12 Noon Sat 69 77 SW 5 16174 6845 2945 Blue 16
1 PM Sat 70 78 SW 5 17098 13113 9213 Blue 17
2 PM Sat 70 77 W 7 16174 6845 2945 Blue 16
3 PM Sat 70 76 W 7 15092 6487 2587 Blue 15
4 PM Sat 70 74 W 7 6884 5760 1860 Blue 13
5 PM Sat 69 71 W 6 5788 5072 1172 Blue 10
6 PM Sat 67 67 W 6 4866 4148 248 Blue 6
7 PM Sat 64 64 W 6 4154 3900 0 Blue 3
8 PM Sat 60 60 N 1 3380 3900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 59 59 N 1 3346 3900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 60 60 N 1 3380 3900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 62 62 N 2 3682 3900 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Sun 61 61 N 2 3479 3900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 61 61 N 2 3479 3900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 60 60 NE 3 3380 3900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 60 60 NE 3 3380 3900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 60 60 NE 3 3380 3900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 60 60 E 6 3380 3900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 60 60 E 6 3380 3900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 64 64 E 6 4154 3900 0 Blue 3
8 AM Sun 72 73 E 6 6523 5389 1489 Blue 12
9 AM Sun 72 75 E 6 13719 6126 2226 Blue 14
10 AM Sun 73 78 E 6 17098 13113 9213 Blue 17
11 AM Sun 73 80 SW 5 18667 15714 11814 Blue 19
12 Noon Sun 73 81 SW 5 19359 16664 12764 Blue 20
1 PM Sun 74 83 SW 5 20494 18263 14363 White 22
2 PM Sun 74 82 SW 5 20005 17503 13603 Blue 21
3 PM Sun 74 80 SW 5 18667 15714 11814 Blue 19
4 PM Sun 75 79 SW 5 17920 14588 10688 Blue 18
5 PM Sun 73 75 W 6 13719 6126 2226 Blue 14
6 PM Sun 72 72 W 6 6157 5230 1330 Blue 11
7 PM Sun 69 69 W 6 5237 4607 707 Blue 8
8 PM Sun 64 64 W 6 4154 3900 0 Blue 3
9 PM Sun 64 64 W 6 4154 3900 0 Blue 3
10 PM Sun 65 65 W 6 4385 3900 0 Blue 4
11 PM Sun 66 66 N 5 4615 3913 13 Blue 5
12 Midnight Mon 66 66 N 5 4615 3913 13 Blue 5
1 AM Mon 65 65 N 5 4385 3900 0 Blue 4
2 AM Mon 65 65 N 5 4385 3900 0 Blue 4
3 AM Mon 65 65 N 5 4385 3900 0 Blue 4
4 AM Mon 65 65 N 5 4385 3900 0 Blue 4
5 AM Mon 65 65 NE 6 4385 3900 0 Blue 4
6 AM Mon 65 65 NE 6 4385 3900 0 Blue 4
7 AM Mon 68 68 NE 6 5081 4378 478 Blue 7
8 AM Mon 74 76 NE 6 15092 6487 2587 Blue 15
9 AM Mon 74 77 NE 6 16174 6845 2945 Blue 16
10 AM Mon 75 81 NE 6 19359 16664 12764 Blue 20
11 AM Mon 75 82 SW 9 20005 17503 13603 Blue 21
12 Noon Mon 75 83 SW 9 20494 18263 14363 White 22
1 PM Mon 75 83 SW 9 20494 18263 14363 White 22
2 PM Mon 75 82 SW 9 20005 17503 13603 Blue 21
3 PM Mon 75 81 SW 9 19359 16664 12764 Blue 20
4 PM Mon 75 79 SW 9 17920 14588 10688 Blue 18
5 PM Mon 74 76 W 13 15092 6487 2587 Blue 15
6 PM Mon 71 71 W 13 5788 5072 1172 Blue 10
7 PM Mon 67 67 W 13 4866 4148 248 Blue 6
8 PM Mon 62 62 W 13 3682 3900 0 Blue 1
9 PM Mon 61 61 W 13 3479 3900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 62 62 W 13 3682 3900 0 Blue 1
11 PM Mon 63 63 W 7 3917 3900 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Tue 63 63 W 7 3917 3900 0 Blue 2
1 AM Tue 62 62 W 7 3682 3900 0 Blue 1
2 AM Tue 62 62 W 7 3682 3900 0 Blue 1
3 AM Tue 62 62 W 7 3682 3900 0 Blue 1
4 AM Tue 62 62 W 7 3682 3900 0 Blue 1
5 AM Tue 62 62 NW 7 3682 3900 0 Blue 1
6 AM Tue 62 62 NW 7 3682 3900 0 Blue 1
7 AM Tue 65 65 NW 7 4385 3900 0 Blue 4
8 AM Tue 71 72 NW 7 6157 5230 1330 Blue 11
9 AM Tue 71 74 NW 7 6884 5760 1860 Blue 13
10 AM Tue 72 77 NW 7 16174 6845 2945 Blue 16
11 AM Tue 72 78 W 12 17098 13113 9213 Blue 17
12 Noon Tue 72 79 W 12 17920 14588 10688 Blue 18
1 PM Tue 72 79 W 12 17920 14588 10688 Blue 18
2 PM Tue 72 79 W 12 17920 14588 10688 Blue 18
3 PM Tue 72 77 W 12 16174 6845 2945 Blue 16
4 PM Tue 72 75 W 12 13719 6126 2226 Blue 14
5 PM Tue 71 73 W 15 6523 5389 1489 Blue 12
6 PM Tue 69 69 W 15 5237 4607 707 Blue 8
7 PM Tue 65 65 W 15 4385 3900 0 Blue 4
8 PM Tue 60 60 W 15 3380 3900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 59 59 W 15 3346 3900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 60 60 W 15 3380 3900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 61 61 W 8 3479 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 61 61 W 8 3479 3900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 60 60 W 8 3380 3900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 60 60 W 8 3380 3900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 60 60 W 8 3380 3900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 60 60 W 8 3380 3900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 60 60 N 8 3380 3900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 60 60 N 8 3380 3900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 63 63 N 8 3917 3900 0 Blue 2
8 AM Wed 69 70 N 8 5413 4852 952 Blue 9
9 AM Wed 70 73 N 8 6523 5389 1489 Blue 12
10 AM Wed 71 76 N 8 15092 6487 2587 Blue 15
11 AM Wed 70 77 W 9 16174 6845 2945 Blue 16
12 Noon Wed 71 79 W 9 17920 14588 10688 Blue 18
1 PM Wed 71 79 W 9 17920 14588 10688 Blue 18
2 PM Wed 71 78 W 9 17098 13113 9213 Blue 17
3 PM Wed 71 77 W 9 16174 6845 2945 Blue 16
4 PM Wed 71 75 W 9 13719 6126 2226 Blue 14
5 PM Wed 70 72 W 15 6157 5230 1330 Blue 11
6 PM Wed 68 68 W 15 5081 4378 478 Blue 7
7 PM Wed 64 64 W 15 4154 3900 0 Blue 3
8 PM Wed 59 59 W 15 3346 3900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 58 58 W 15 3346 3900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 59 59 W 15 3346 3900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 60 60 NW 8 3380 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 60 60 NW 8 3380 3900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 59 59 NW 8 3346 3900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 59 59 NW 8 3346 3900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 59 59 NW 8 3346 3900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 59 59 NW 8 3346 3900 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst