Detailed Predictions for: Big Black
Launch Altitude (f): 3900
LZ Altitude (f): 1645
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

17 NOV 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Sat 54 54 N 3 3218 3900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 57 57 N 3 3218 3900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 56 56 N 3 3218 3900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 56 56 N 3 3218 3900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 60 60 N 3 3962 3900 0 Blue 2
9 AM Sat 62 63 N 2 5149 3958 58 Blue 5
10 AM Sat 61 63 W 3 5149 3958 58 Blue 5
11 AM Sat 62 64 W 5 5620 4236 336 Blue 6
12 Noon Sat 62 64 W 6 5620 4236 336 Blue 6
1 PM Sat 62 64 W 8 5620 4236 336 Blue 6
2 PM Sat 62 63 W 9 5149 3958 58 Blue 5
3 PM Sat 61 61 W 9 4243 3900 0 Blue 3
4 PM Sat 58 58 W 7 3442 3900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 56 56 W 6 3218 3900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 56 56 W 3 3218 3900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 56 56 W 1 3218 3900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 56 56 NW 1 3218 3900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 56 56 NW 1 3218 3900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 56 56 N 2 3218 3900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 56 56 N 2 3218 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 56 56 N 2 3218 3900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 56 56 N 2 3218 3900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 57 57 NE 2 3218 3900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 57 57 N 2 3218 3900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 55 55 NE 2 3218 3900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 58 58 NE 3 3442 3900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 57 57 NE 3 3218 3900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 58 58 E 7 3442 3900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 62 62 E 8 4685 3900 0 Blue 4
9 AM Sun 64 65 E 8 6081 4667 767 Blue 7
10 AM Sun 64 65 E 8 6081 4667 767 Blue 7
11 AM Sun 64 66 E 10 6533 5123 1223 Blue 8
12 Noon Sun 65 67 E 10 6975 5588 1688 Blue 9
1 PM Sun 65 67 E 9 6975 5588 1688 Blue 9
2 PM Sun 65 66 E 9 6533 5123 1223 Blue 8
3 PM Sun 64 64 E 9 5620 4236 336 Blue 6
4 PM Sun 62 62 E 12 4685 3900 0 Blue 4
5 PM Sun 60 60 E 12 3962 3900 0 Blue 2
6 PM Sun 59 59 E 14 3684 3900 0 Blue 1
7 PM Sun 59 59 E 17 3684 3900 0 Blue 1
8 PM Sun 59 59 E 17 3684 3900 0 Blue 1
9 PM Sun 59 59 E 16 3684 3900 0 Blue 1
10 PM Sun 59 59 E 15 3684 3900 0 Blue 1
11 PM Sun 59 59 E 15 3684 3900 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Mon 59 59 E 15 3684 3900 0 Blue 1
1 AM Mon 59 59 E 15 3684 3900 0 Blue 1
2 AM Mon 60 60 E 15 3962 3900 0 Blue 2
3 AM Mon 60 60 E 14 3962 3900 0 Blue 2
4 AM Mon 58 58 E 14 3442 3900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 60 60 E 14 3962 3900 0 Blue 2
6 AM Mon 59 59 E 14 3684 3900 0 Blue 1
7 AM Mon 59 59 E 17 3684 3900 0 Blue 1
8 AM Mon 62 62 E 17 4685 3900 0 Blue 4
9 AM Mon 63 64 E 17 5620 4236 336 Blue 6
10 AM Mon 63 64 E 16 5620 4236 336 Blue 6
11 AM Mon 63 65 E 16 6081 4667 767 Blue 7
12 Noon Mon 64 66 E 16 6533 5123 1223 Blue 8
1 PM Mon 63 64 E 14 5620 4236 336 Blue 6
2 PM Mon 63 64 E 14 5620 4236 336 Blue 6
3 PM Mon 62 62 E 14 4685 3900 0 Blue 4
4 PM Mon 59 59 E 14 3684 3900 0 Blue 1
5 PM Mon 57 57 E 14 3218 3900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 56 56 E 14 3218 3900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 56 56 E 10 3218 3900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 56 56 E 10 3218 3900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 56 56 E 10 3218 3900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 56 56 SE 14 3218 3900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 56 56 SE 14 3218 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 57 57 SE 14 3218 3900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 56 56 SE 10 3218 3900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 57 57 SE 10 3218 3900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 57 57 SE 10 3218 3900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 55 55 SE 8 3218 3900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 56 56 SE 8 3218 3900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 56 56 SE 8 3218 3900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 56 56 SE 6 3218 3900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 58 58 SE 6 3442 3900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 58 58 SE 6 3442 3900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 58 60 SW 3 3962 3900 0 Blue 2
11 AM Tue 58 60 SW 3 3962 3900 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Tue 59 61 SW 3 4243 3900 0 Blue 3
1 PM Tue 59 61 W 8 4243 3900 0 Blue 3
2 PM Tue 58 59 W 8 3684 3900 0 Blue 1
3 PM Tue 58 58 W 8 3442 3900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 56 56 W 8 3218 3900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 55 55 W 8 3218 3900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 55 55 W 8 3218 3900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 54 54 N 2 3218 3900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 54 54 N 2 3218 3900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 54 54 N 2 3218 3900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 54 54 W 2 3218 3900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 55 55 W 2 3218 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 55 55 W 2 3218 3900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 55 55 W 1 3218 3900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 55 55 W 1 3218 3900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 55 55 W 1 3218 3900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 54 54 E 1 3218 3900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 55 55 E 1 3218 3900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 55 55 E 1 3218 3900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 55 55 SE 5 3218 3900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 56 56 SE 5 3218 3900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 57 58 SE 5 3442 3900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 56 57 S 5 3218 3900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 56 57 S 5 3218 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 57 58 S 5 3442 3900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 57 58 SW 5 3442 3900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 57 57 SW 5 3218 3900 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 57 57 SW 5 3218 3900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 56 56 W 3 3218 3900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 56 56 W 3 3218 3900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 56 56 W 3 3218 3900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 56 56 W 6 3218 3900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 56 56 W 6 3218 3900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 56 56 W 6 3218 3900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 56 56 SW 3 3218 3900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 56 56 SW 3 3218 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 56 56 SW 3 3218 3900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 56 56 W 3 3218 3900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 56 56 W 3 3218 3900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 56 56 W 3 3218 3900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 56 56 NW 5 3218 3900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 57 57 NW 5 3218 3900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 56 56 NW 5 3218 3900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 56 56 NW 2 3218 3900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 57 57 NW 2 3218 3900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 58 58 NW 2 3442 3900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 58 58 W 8 3442 3900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 58 58 W 8 3442 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 58 59 W 8 3684 3900 0 Blue 1
1 PM Thu 58 58 NW 12 3442 3900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 57 57 NW 12 3218 3900 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 57 57 NW 12 3218 3900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 55 55 NW 12 3218 3900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 54 54 NW 12 3218 3900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 54 54 NW 12 3218 3900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 53 53 NW 7 3218 3900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 53 53 NW 7 3218 3900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 53 53 NW 7 3218 3900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 54 54 NW 6 3218 3900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 54 54 NW 6 3218 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 54 54 NW 6 3218 3900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 54 54 NW 6 3218 3900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 54 54 NW 6 3218 3900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 54 54 NW 6 3218 3900 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst