Detailed Predictions for: Big Black
Launch Altitude (f): 3900
LZ Altitude (f): 1645
Sounding

Station:

 KNKX

Date/Time:

 11 MAR 2010

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
7 AM Thu 35 35 NE 11 2621 3900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 40 41 NE 11 3128 3900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 47 50 NE 11 6322 5220 1320 Blue 5
10 AM Thu 49 53 NE 10 6946 6288 2388 Blue 8
11 AM Thu 50 55 NE 10 7168 6823 2923 Blue 10
12 Noon Thu 52 58 NE 10 7501 7154 3254 Blue 13
1 PM Thu 52 57 E 8 7390 7044 3144 Blue 12
2 PM Thu 52 56 E 8 7279 6933 3033 Blue 11
3 PM Thu 52 54 E 8 7057 6636 2736 Blue 9
4 PM Thu 51 52 E 3 6836 5936 2036 Blue 7
5 PM Thu 49 49 E 3 5966 4828 928 Blue 4
6 PM Thu 47 47 E 3 5242 3936 36 Blue 2
7 PM Thu 46 46 E 4 4861 3900 0 Blue 1
8 PM Thu 46 46 E 4 4861 3900 0 Blue 1
9 PM Thu 45 45 E 4 4208 3900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 45 45 E 4 4208 3900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 46 46 E 4 4861 3900 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Fri 46 46 E 4 4861 3900 0 Blue 1
1 AM Fri 46 46 E 5 4861 3900 0 Blue 1
2 AM Fri 45 45 E 5 4208 3900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 45 45 E 5 4208 3900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 44 44 E 4 3941 3900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 43 43 E 4 3671 3900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 43 43 E 4 3671 3900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 43 43 E 3 3671 3900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 47 48 E 3 5606 4202 302 Blue 3
9 AM Fri 54 56 E 3 7279 6933 3033 Blue 11
10 AM Fri 56 60 W 6 8124 7375 3475 Blue 15
11 AM Fri 57 62 W 6 8778 7744 3844 Blue 17
12 Noon Fri 59 64 W 6 9164 8398 4498 Blue 19
1 PM Fri 59 63 W 7 9023 8072 4172 Blue 18
2 PM Fri 58 61 W 7 8453 7486 3586 Blue 16
3 PM Fri 58 60 W 7 8124 7375 3475 Blue 15
4 PM Fri 56 56 W 9 7279 6933 3033 Blue 11
5 PM Fri 53 53 W 9 6946 6288 2388 Blue 8
6 PM Fri 48 48 W 9 5606 4202 302 Blue 3
7 PM Fri 47 47 W 3 5242 3936 36 Blue 2
8 PM Fri 46 46 W 3 4861 3900 0 Blue 1
9 PM Fri 45 45 W 3 4208 3900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 45 45 NW 4 4208 3900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 46 46 NW 4 4861 3900 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Sat 46 46 NW 4 4861 3900 0 Blue 1
1 AM Sat 46 46 N 2 4861 3900 0 Blue 1
2 AM Sat 45 45 N 2 4208 3900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 45 45 N 2 4208 3900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 43 43 NW 3 3671 3900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 42 42 NW 3 3401 3900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 42 42 NW 3 3401 3900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 41 41 NW 3 3128 3900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 44 44 NW 3 3941 3900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 48 49 NW 3 5966 4828 928 Blue 4
10 AM Sat 49 52 W 12 6836 5936 2036 Blue 7
11 AM Sat 49 53 W 12 6946 6288 2388 Blue 8
12 Noon Sat 50 54 W 12 7057 6636 2736 Blue 9
1 PM Sat 50 53 W 12 6946 6288 2388 Blue 8
2 PM Sat 50 52 W 12 6836 5936 2036 Blue 7
3 PM Sat 50 51 W 12 6673 5580 1680 Blue 6
4 PM Sat 49 49 W 12 5966 4828 928 Blue 4
5 PM Sat 47 47 W 12 5242 3936 36 Blue 2
6 PM Sat 44 44 W 12 3941 3900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 43 43 W 12 3671 3900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 43 43 W 12 3671 3900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 42 42 W 12 3401 3900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 42 42 SW 1 3401 3900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 43 43 SW 1 3671 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 43 43 SW 1 3671 3900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 43 43 SW 1 3671 3900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 43 43 SW 1 3671 3900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 42 42 SW 1 3401 3900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 41 41 NE 4 3128 3900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 40 40 NE 4 2855 3900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 40 40 NE 4 2855 3900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 40 40 NE 4 2855 3900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 45 46 NE 4 4861 3900 0 Blue 1
9 AM Sun 53 55 NE 4 7168 6823 2923 Blue 10
10 AM Sun 55 59 NE 5 7792 7265 3365 Blue 14
11 AM Sun 56 61 NE 5 8453 7486 3586 Blue 16
12 Noon Sun 59 64 NE 5 9164 8398 4498 Blue 19
1 PM Sun 59 64 NE 5 9164 8398 4498 Blue 19
2 PM Sun 59 63 NE 5 9023 8072 4172 Blue 18
3 PM Sun 59 61 NE 5 8453 7486 3586 Blue 16
4 PM Sun 57 58 N 6 7501 7154 3254 Blue 13
5 PM Sun 55 55 N 6 7168 6823 2923 Blue 10
6 PM Sun 52 52 N 6 6836 5936 2036 Blue 7
7 PM Sun 51 51 N 6 6673 5580 1680 Blue 6
8 PM Sun 50 50 N 6 6322 5220 1320 Blue 5
9 PM Sun 50 50 N 6 6322 5220 1320 Blue 5
10 PM Sun 50 50 NE 11 6322 5220 1320 Blue 5
11 PM Sun 51 51 NE 11 6673 5580 1680 Blue 6
12 Midnight Mon 50 50 NE 11 6322 5220 1320 Blue 5
1 AM Mon 50 50 NE 11 6322 5220 1320 Blue 5
2 AM Mon 50 50 NE 11 6322 5220 1320 Blue 5
3 AM Mon 49 49 NE 11 5966 4828 928 Blue 4
4 AM Mon 49 49 NE 10 5966 4828 928 Blue 4
5 AM Mon 48 48 NE 10 5606 4202 302 Blue 3
6 AM Mon 48 48 NE 10 5606 4202 302 Blue 3
7 AM Mon 47 47 NE 10 5242 3936 36 Blue 2
8 AM Mon 52 53 NE 10 6946 6288 2388 Blue 8
9 AM Mon 60 63 NE 10 9023 8072 4172 Blue 18
10 AM Mon 62 66 E 10 9446 8997 5097 Blue 21
11 AM Mon 63 68 E 10 9727 9277 5377 Blue 23
12 Noon Mon 66 72 E 10 10577 9837 5937 Blue 27
1 PM Mon 66 71 E 10 10292 9697 5797 Blue 26
2 PM Mon 66 70 E 10 10008 9557 5657 Blue 25
3 PM Mon 65 67 E 10 9586 9137 5237 Blue 22
4 PM Mon 64 65 NE 9 9305 8720 4820 Blue 20
5 PM Mon 61 61 NE 9 8453 7486 3586 Blue 16
6 PM Mon 57 57 NE 9 7390 7044 3144 Blue 12
7 PM Mon 55 55 NE 9 7168 6823 2923 Blue 10
8 PM Mon 55 55 NE 9 7168 6823 2923 Blue 10
9 PM Mon 54 54 NE 9 7057 6636 2736 Blue 9
10 PM Mon 54 54 E 11 7057 6636 2736 Blue 9
11 PM Mon 55 55 E 11 7168 6823 2923 Blue 10
12 Midnight Tue 54 54 E 11 7057 6636 2736 Blue 9
1 AM Tue 54 54 E 11 7057 6636 2736 Blue 9
2 AM Tue 54 54 E 11 7057 6636 2736 Blue 9
3 AM Tue 53 53 E 11 6946 6288 2388 Blue 8
4 AM Tue 52 52 E 12 6836 5936 2036 Blue 7
5 AM Tue 51 51 E 12 6673 5580 1680 Blue 6
6 AM Tue 51 51 E 12 6673 5580 1680 Blue 6
7 AM Tue 50 50 E 12 6322 5220 1320 Blue 5
8 AM Tue 55 56 E 12 7279 6933 3033 Blue 11
9 AM Tue 62 65 E 12 9305 8720 4820 Blue 20
10 AM Tue 64 68 E 10 9727 9277 5377 Blue 23
11 AM Tue 65 70 E 10 10008 9557 5657 Blue 25
12 Noon Tue 67 72 E 10 10577 9837 5937 Blue 27
1 PM Tue 67 72 E 10 10577 9837 5937 Blue 27
2 PM Tue 67 70 E 10 10008 9557 5657 Blue 25
3 PM Tue 66 68 E 10 9727 9277 5377 Blue 23
4 PM Tue 65 66 E 9 9446 8997 5097 Blue 21
5 PM Tue 62 62 E 9 8778 7744 3844 Blue 17
6 PM Tue 58 58 E 9 7501 7154 3254 Blue 13
7 PM Tue 56 56 E 9 7279 6933 3033 Blue 11
8 PM Tue 56 56 E 9 7279 6933 3033 Blue 11
9 PM Tue 55 55 E 9 7168 6823 2923 Blue 10
10 PM Tue 55 55 E 8 7168 6823 2923 Blue 10
11 PM Tue 56 56 E 8 7279 6933 3033 Blue 11
12 Midnight Wed 55 55 E 8 7168 6823 2923 Blue 10
1 AM Wed 55 55 E 8 7168 6823 2923 Blue 10
2 AM Wed 55 55 E 8 7168 6823 2923 Blue 10
3 AM Wed 54 54 E 8 7057 6636 2736 Blue 9
4 AM Wed 53 53 E 5 6946 6288 2388 Blue 8
5 AM Wed 52 52 E 5 6836 5936 2036 Blue 7
6 AM Wed 52 52 E 5 6836 5936 2036 Blue 7

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst