Detailed Predictions for: Big Black
Launch Altitude (f): 3900
LZ Altitude (f): 1645
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

18 MAY 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 44 44 N 5 3012 3900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 47 47 N 5 3012 3900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 47 47 N 3 3012 3900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 53 54 NW 2 4154 3900 0 Blue 3
9 AM Sat 52 55 NW 3 4216 4019 119 Blue 4
10 AM Sat 52 57 W 5 4968 4153 253 Blue 6
11 AM Sat 53 58 W 8 5104 4206 306 Blue 7
12 Noon Sat 55 61 W 9 5468 5098 1198 Blue 10
1 PM Sat 56 62 W 10 5724 5209 1309 Blue 11
2 PM Sat 58 63 W 13 6175 5321 1421 Blue 12
3 PM Sat 58 62 W 13 5724 5209 1309 Blue 11
4 PM Sat 57 60 W 13 5327 4952 1052 Blue 9
5 PM Sat 56 57 W 13 4968 4153 253 Blue 6
6 PM Sat 51 51 W 12 3774 3900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 48 48 W 10 3012 3900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 48 48 SW 7 3012 3900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 46 46 SW 7 3012 3900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 45 45 SW 7 3012 3900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 46 46 SW 7 3012 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 45 45 SW 8 3012 3900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 46 46 SW 9 3012 3900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 46 46 SW 9 3012 3900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 47 47 SW 9 3012 3900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 47 47 SW 9 3012 3900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 44 44 SW 8 3012 3900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 45 45 SW 9 3012 3900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 45 45 SW 9 3012 3900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 46 46 SW 10 3012 3900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 46 46 SW 12 3012 3900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 46 47 SW 13 3012 3900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 46 48 SW 14 3012 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 47 49 SW 15 3012 3900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 47 49 SW 17 3012 3900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 47 49 W 18 3012 3900 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 48 50 W 18 3356 3900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 47 48 W 18 3012 3900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 47 47 W 18 3012 3900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 45 45 W 18 3012 3900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 44 44 W 17 3012 3900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 44 44 W 16 3012 3900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 43 43 W 16 3012 3900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 42 42 W 16 3012 3900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 43 43 W 16 3012 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 43 43 W 16 3012 3900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 43 43 W 16 3012 3900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 43 43 W 16 3012 3900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 43 43 W 16 3012 3900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 43 43 W 17 3012 3900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 42 42 W 18 3012 3900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 44 44 W 17 3012 3900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 43 43 W 17 3012 3900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 46 46 W 16 3012 3900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 46 47 W 16 3012 3900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 46 47 W 16 3012 3900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 46 50 W 15 3356 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 47 51 W 16 3774 3900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 48 53 W 16 4104 3900 0 Blue 2
2 PM Mon 48 52 W 16 4021 3900 0 Blue 1
3 PM Mon 48 51 W 16 3774 3900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 48 50 W 16 3356 3900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 47 48 W 16 3012 3900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 45 45 W 15 3012 3900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 44 44 W 13 3012 3900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 44 44 W 12 3012 3900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 43 43 W 10 3012 3900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 42 42 SW 10 3012 3900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 43 43 SW 9 3012 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 43 43 SW 10 3012 3900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 43 43 SW 10 3012 3900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 43 43 SW 12 3012 3900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 44 44 SW 14 3012 3900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 43 43 SW 16 3012 3900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 42 42 SW 17 3012 3900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 43 43 SW 17 3012 3900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 43 43 SW 17 3012 3900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 44 44 SW 20 3012 3900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 44 45 SW 20 3012 3900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 44 46 SW 20 3012 3900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 44 46 W 22 3012 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 44 46 W 22 3012 3900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 44 46 W 22 3012 3900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 45 47 W 25 3012 3900 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 45 46 W 25 3012 3900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 44 45 W 25 3012 3900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 44 44 W 25 3012 3900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 42 42 W 25 3012 3900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 41 41 W 25 3012 3900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 41 41 W 20 3012 3900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 41 41 W 20 3012 3900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 40 40 W 20 3012 3900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 41 41 W 10 3012 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 40 40 W 10 3012 3900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 41 41 W 10 3012 3900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 41 41 SW 8 3012 3900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 41 41 SW 8 3012 3900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 41 41 SW 8 3012 3900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 40 40 S 6 3012 3900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 42 42 S 6 3012 3900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 42 42 S 6 3012 3900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 46 46 S 6 3012 3900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 46 47 S 6 3012 3900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 46 47 S 6 3012 3900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 46 50 W 8 3356 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 48 52 W 8 4021 3900 0 Blue 1
1 PM Wed 48 53 W 8 4104 3900 0 Blue 2
2 PM Wed 50 54 W 10 4154 3900 0 Blue 3
3 PM Wed 50 53 W 10 4104 3900 0 Blue 2
4 PM Wed 49 51 W 10 3774 3900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 48 49 W 10 3012 3900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 46 46 W 10 3012 3900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 45 45 W 10 3012 3900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 45 45 W 5 3012 3900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 44 44 W 5 3012 3900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 44 44 W 5 3012 3900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 44 44 NW 6 3012 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 44 44 NW 6 3012 3900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 44 44 NW 6 3012 3900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 44 44 N 6 3012 3900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 44 44 N 6 3012 3900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 44 44 N 6 3012 3900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 43 43 N 6 3012 3900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 46 46 N 6 3012 3900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 46 46 N 6 3012 3900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 52 53 NE 3 4104 3900 0 Blue 2
9 AM Thu 51 53 NE 3 4104 3900 0 Blue 2
10 AM Thu 51 55 NE 3 4216 4019 119 Blue 4
11 AM Thu 52 57 W 7 4968 4153 253 Blue 6
12 Noon Thu 54 60 W 7 5327 4952 1052 Blue 9
1 PM Thu 55 61 W 7 5468 5098 1198 Blue 10
2 PM Thu 58 63 NW 10 6175 5321 1421 Blue 12
3 PM Thu 57 61 NW 10 5468 5098 1198 Blue 10
4 PM Thu 56 59 NW 10 5216 4594 694 Blue 8
5 PM Thu 56 57 W 14 4968 4153 253 Blue 6
6 PM Thu 52 52 W 14 4021 3900 0 Blue 1
7 PM Thu 50 50 W 14 3356 3900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 50 50 W 5 3356 3900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 49 49 W 5 3012 3900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 48 48 W 5 3012 3900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 49 49 NW 5 3012 3900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 48 48 NW 5 3012 3900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 48 48 NW 5 3012 3900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 49 49 NW 3 3012 3900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 49 49 NW 3 3012 3900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 49 49 NW 3 3012 3900 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst