Detailed Predictions for: Marshall
Launch Altitude (f): 4040
LZ Altitude (f): 1700
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

21 SEP 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Fri 59 57 E 6 2953 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 58 56 E 6 2953 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 58 56 E 6 2953 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 68 66 E 5 2953 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 76 75 SE 2 3095 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 78 79 S 3 3619 4040 0 Blue 3
11 AM Fri 81 83 S 7 4545 4040 0 Blue 7
12 Noon Fri 84 88 S 7 9075 5540 1500 Blue 12
1 PM Fri 85 89 S 8 9493 6273 2233 Blue 13
2 PM Fri 87 90 SW 9 9905 8246 4206 Blue 14
3 PM Fri 86 88 SW 10 9075 5540 1500 Blue 12
4 PM Fri 87 87 SW 10 8641 4932 892 Blue 11
5 PM Fri 86 85 SW 10 5554 4248 208 Blue 9
6 PM Fri 82 80 SW 9 3832 4040 0 Blue 4
7 PM Fri 77 75 S 3 3095 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 72 70 E 3 2953 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 69 67 NE 2 2953 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 67 65 NE 1 2953 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 65 63 N 2 2953 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 65 63 N 3 2953 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 64 62 N 3 2953 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 64 62 N 5 2953 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 63 61 N 6 2953 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 63 61 NE 7 2953 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 63 61 NE 7 2953 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 62 60 NE 7 2953 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 62 60 NE 7 2953 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 71 69 NE 3 2953 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 78 77 W 0 3310 4040 0 Blue 1
10 AM Sat 80 81 S 2 4045 4040 0 Blue 5
11 AM Sat 82 84 S 6 4957 4040 0 Blue 8
12 Noon Sat 85 88 S 7 9075 5540 1500 Blue 12
1 PM Sat 87 91 SW 9 10309 8994 4954 Blue 15
2 PM Sat 88 91 SW 10 10309 8994 4954 Blue 15
3 PM Sat 87 89 SW 10 9493 6273 2233 Blue 13
4 PM Sat 88 88 SW 12 9075 5540 1500 Blue 12
5 PM Sat 86 85 SW 12 5554 4248 208 Blue 9
6 PM Sat 82 80 SW 10 3832 4040 0 Blue 4
7 PM Sat 77 75 S 5 3095 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 72 70 E 6 2953 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 69 67 SE 5 2953 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 66 64 NE 6 2953 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 65 63 E 2 2953 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 64 62 NE 2 2953 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 64 62 N 1 2953 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 63 61 N 2 2953 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 62 60 N 3 2953 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 62 60 NE 3 2953 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 62 60 NE 5 2953 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 61 59 NE 5 2953 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 61 59 NE 5 2953 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 70 68 N 1 2953 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 76 75 SW 2 3095 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 78 79 SW 5 3619 4040 0 Blue 3
11 AM Sun 80 83 SW 8 4545 4040 0 Blue 7
12 Noon Sun 82 86 SW 9 6356 4525 485 Blue 10
1 PM Sun 84 88 S 10 9075 5540 1500 Blue 12
2 PM Sun 85 88 SW 14 9075 5540 1500 Blue 12
3 PM Sun 84 86 SW 13 6356 4525 485 Blue 10
4 PM Sun 85 85 SW 14 5554 4248 208 Blue 9
5 PM Sun 83 82 SW 14 4257 4040 0 Blue 6
6 PM Sun 79 77 SW 12 3310 4040 0 Blue 1
7 PM Sun 73 71 SW 6 2953 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 68 66 SE 3 2953 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 64 62 E 5 2953 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 62 60 E 5 2953 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 60 58 E 5 2953 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 60 58 E 3 2953 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 59 57 E 3 2953 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 58 56 E 2 2953 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 58 56 NE 3 2953 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 57 55 NE 3 2953 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 57 55 N 6 2953 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 56 54 N 6 2953 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 56 54 N 6 2953 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 66 64 N 6 2953 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 74 73 N 6 2953 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 76 77 N 6 3310 4040 0 Blue 1
11 AM Mon 78 81 SW 5 4045 4040 0 Blue 5
12 Noon Mon 81 85 SW 5 5554 4248 208 Blue 9
1 PM Mon 82 86 SW 5 6356 4525 485 Blue 10
2 PM Mon 84 88 SW 10 9075 5540 1500 Blue 12
3 PM Mon 84 86 SW 10 6356 4525 485 Blue 10
4 PM Mon 84 85 SW 10 5554 4248 208 Blue 9
5 PM Mon 83 82 SW 12 4257 4040 0 Blue 6
6 PM Mon 79 77 SW 12 3310 4040 0 Blue 1
7 PM Mon 74 72 SW 12 2953 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 69 67 SE 2 2953 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 65 63 SE 2 2953 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 63 61 SE 2 2953 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 62 60 N 2 2953 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 61 59 N 2 2953 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 60 58 N 2 2953 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 60 58 N 10 2953 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 59 57 N 10 2953 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 59 57 N 10 2953 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 59 57 NE 13 2953 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 58 56 NE 13 2953 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 58 56 NE 13 2953 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 68 66 N 13 2953 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 76 75 N 13 3095 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 78 79 N 13 3619 4040 0 Blue 3
11 AM Tue 80 83 N 3 4545 4040 0 Blue 7
12 Noon Tue 83 87 N 3 8641 4932 892 Blue 11
1 PM Tue 84 88 N 3 9075 5540 1500 Blue 12
2 PM Tue 86 89 S 8 9493 6273 2233 Blue 13
3 PM Tue 86 88 S 8 9075 5540 1500 Blue 12
4 PM Tue 86 86 S 8 6356 4525 485 Blue 10
5 PM Tue 84 83 SW 8 4545 4040 0 Blue 7
6 PM Tue 80 78 SW 8 3438 4040 0 Blue 2
7 PM Tue 75 73 SW 8 2953 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 70 68 E 5 2953 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 67 65 E 5 2953 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 64 62 E 5 2953 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 63 61 NE 5 2953 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 62 60 NE 5 2953 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 62 60 NE 5 2953 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 61 59 N 13 2953 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 60 58 N 13 2953 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 60 58 N 13 2953 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 60 58 N 15 2953 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 59 57 N 15 2953 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 59 57 N 15 2953 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 69 67 N 16 2953 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 76 75 N 16 3095 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 78 79 N 16 3619 4040 0 Blue 3
11 AM Wed 80 82 N 3 4257 4040 0 Blue 6
12 Noon Wed 83 87 N 3 8641 4932 892 Blue 11
1 PM Wed 85 89 N 3 9493 6273 2233 Blue 13
2 PM Wed 86 89 SW 6 9493 6273 2233 Blue 13
3 PM Wed 86 88 SW 6 9075 5540 1500 Blue 12
4 PM Wed 86 86 SW 6 6356 4525 485 Blue 10
5 PM Wed 84 83 SW 12 4545 4040 0 Blue 7
6 PM Wed 80 78 SW 12 3438 4040 0 Blue 2
7 PM Wed 75 73 SW 12 2953 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 70 68 SE 2 2953 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 67 65 SE 2 2953 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 64 62 SE 2 2953 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 63 61 NE 2 2953 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 62 60 NE 2 2953 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 62 60 NE 2 2953 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 61 59 N 6 2953 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 60 58 N 6 2953 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 60 58 N 6 2953 4040 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst