Detailed Predictions for: Marshall
Launch Altitude (f): 4040
LZ Altitude (f): 1700
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

11 NOV 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Mon 67 65 N 15 2838 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 67 65 N 15 2838 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 67 65 N 15 2838 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 68 66 N 15 2838 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 69 67 N 15 2896 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 71 70 N 15 3339 4040 0 Blue 2
10 AM Mon 73 73 N 14 5179 4040 0 Blue 5
11 AM Mon 75 76 N 13 7374 5124 1084 Blue 8
12 Noon Mon 76 77 N 13 8029 5886 1846 Blue 9
1 PM Mon 78 78 N 8 8572 6602 2562 Blue 10
2 PM Mon 77 77 N 7 8029 5886 1846 Blue 9
3 PM Mon 78 77 N 6 8029 5886 1846 Blue 9
4 PM Mon 76 74 N 3 5956 4040 0 Blue 6
5 PM Mon 74 72 N 6 4417 4040 0 Blue 4
6 PM Mon 71 69 NE 6 3156 4040 0 Blue 1
7 PM Mon 69 67 NE 8 2896 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 68 66 NE 8 2838 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 68 66 NE 8 2838 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 68 66 NE 9 2838 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 67 65 NE 9 2838 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 67 65 NE 9 2838 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 66 64 NE 10 2838 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 66 64 N 12 2838 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 66 64 N 13 2838 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 66 64 N 13 2838 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 65 63 N 13 2838 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 65 63 N 13 2838 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 66 64 N 12 2838 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 68 66 N 10 2838 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 71 70 N 8 3339 4040 0 Blue 2
10 AM Tue 74 74 N 6 5956 4040 0 Blue 6
11 AM Tue 76 77 N 3 8029 5886 1846 Blue 9
12 Noon Tue 78 79 N 2 8955 7280 3240 Blue 11
1 PM Tue 79 79 N 2 8955 7280 3240 Blue 11
2 PM Tue 78 78 NW 2 8572 6602 2562 Blue 10
3 PM Tue 78 77 NW 3 8029 5886 1846 Blue 9
4 PM Tue 77 75 NW 3 6685 4383 343 Blue 7
5 PM Tue 74 72 N 3 4417 4040 0 Blue 4
6 PM Tue 71 69 NE 3 3156 4040 0 Blue 1
7 PM Tue 68 66 E 3 2838 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 67 65 E 3 2838 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 66 64 NE 3 2838 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 65 63 N 2 2838 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 65 63 N 2 2838 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 64 62 N 3 2838 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 64 62 N 3 2838 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 64 62 N 3 2838 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 65 63 N 5 2838 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 65 63 N 5 2838 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 64 62 N 6 2838 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 64 62 N 6 2838 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 65 63 NE 6 2838 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 67 65 E 5 2838 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 70 69 SE 5 3156 4040 0 Blue 1
10 AM Wed 73 72 S 5 4417 4040 0 Blue 4
11 AM Wed 75 74 S 6 5956 4040 0 Blue 6
12 Noon Wed 76 75 SW 6 6685 4383 343 Blue 7
1 PM Wed 75 74 SW 7 5956 4040 0 Blue 6
2 PM Wed 76 75 SW 7 6685 4383 343 Blue 7
3 PM Wed 75 73 SW 8 5179 4040 0 Blue 5
4 PM Wed 73 71 SW 7 3631 4040 0 Blue 3
5 PM Wed 70 68 S 6 3022 4040 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 68 66 SE 5 2838 4040 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 65 63 E 3 2838 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 64 62 E 3 2838 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 64 62 E 3 2838 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 64 62 E 3 2838 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 64 62 E 3 2838 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 64 62 E 3 2838 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 63 61 E 3 2838 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 62 60 E 3 2838 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 62 60 E 2 2838 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 62 60 NE 2 2838 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 62 60 NE 2 2838 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 62 60 NE 2 2838 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 63 61 E 3 2838 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 65 63 E 3 2838 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 67 65 E 3 2838 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 68 67 S 6 2896 4040 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 70 69 S 6 3156 4040 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Thu 71 71 S 6 3631 4040 0 Blue 3
1 PM Thu 71 70 S 8 3339 4040 0 Blue 2
2 PM Thu 70 69 S 8 3156 4040 0 Blue 1
3 PM Thu 70 68 S 8 3022 4040 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 69 67 SW 7 2896 4040 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 67 65 SW 7 2838 4040 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 64 62 SW 7 2838 4040 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 62 60 SE 3 2838 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 62 60 SE 3 2838 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 62 60 SE 3 2838 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 62 60 E 3 2838 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 62 60 E 3 2838 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 62 60 E 3 2838 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 61 59 E 3 2838 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 61 59 E 3 2838 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 60 58 E 3 2838 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 59 57 NE 3 2838 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 58 56 NE 3 2838 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 58 56 NE 3 2838 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 59 57 NE 6 2838 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 61 59 NE 6 2838 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 65 63 NE 6 2838 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 68 67 SW 2 2896 4040 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 70 70 SW 2 3339 4040 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Fri 71 71 SW 2 3631 4040 0 Blue 3
1 PM Fri 72 72 SW 6 4417 4040 0 Blue 4
2 PM Fri 71 70 SW 6 3339 4040 0 Blue 2
3 PM Fri 71 69 SW 6 3156 4040 0 Blue 1
4 PM Fri 71 69 SW 6 3156 4040 0 Blue 1
5 PM Fri 68 66 SW 6 2838 4040 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 64 62 SW 6 2838 4040 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 61 59 NE 3 2838 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 61 59 NE 3 2838 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 62 60 NE 3 2838 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 63 61 N 12 2838 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 64 62 N 12 2838 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 64 62 N 12 2838 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 64 62 N 16 2838 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 63 61 N 16 2838 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 63 61 N 16 2838 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 62 60 N 17 2838 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 62 60 N 17 2838 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 62 60 N 17 2838 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 62 60 N 18 2838 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 64 62 N 18 2838 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 67 66 N 18 2838 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 69 69 N 16 3156 4040 0 Blue 1
11 AM Sat 71 72 N 16 4417 4040 0 Blue 4
12 Noon Sat 73 74 N 16 5956 4040 0 Blue 6
1 PM Sat 74 74 N 13 5956 4040 0 Blue 6
2 PM Sat 74 74 N 13 5956 4040 0 Blue 6
3 PM Sat 75 74 N 13 5956 4040 0 Blue 6
4 PM Sat 74 72 N 10 4417 4040 0 Blue 4
5 PM Sat 71 69 N 10 3156 4040 0 Blue 1
6 PM Sat 68 66 N 10 2838 4040 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 66 64 NE 10 2838 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 64 62 NE 10 2838 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 64 62 NE 10 2838 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 64 62 NE 14 2838 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 65 63 NE 14 2838 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 65 63 NE 14 2838 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 65 63 N 20 2838 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 64 62 N 20 2838 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 64 62 N 20 2838 4040 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst