Detailed Predictions for: Marshall
Launch Altitude (f): 4040
LZ Altitude (f): 1700
Sounding

Station:

 KNKX

Date/Time:

 20 MAR 2010

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
5 AM Sat 49 41 N 4 2671 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 48 40 N 4 2671 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 49 41 N 4 2671 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 54 46 N 3 2671 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 64 57 N 3 2671 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 69 64 N 3 3257 4040 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 72 69 N 4 6338 4040 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Sat 75 73 N 4 7505 6639 2599 Blue 6
1 PM Sat 77 75 N 4 8052 7191 3151 Blue 8
2 PM Sat 79 76 N 6 8809 7465 3425 Blue 9
3 PM Sat 80 76 N 6 8809 7465 3425 Blue 9
4 PM Sat 81 75 N 6 8052 7191 3151 Blue 8
5 PM Sat 79 72 SW 5 7229 6213 2173 Blue 5
6 PM Sat 72 64 SW 5 3257 4040 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 65 57 SW 5 2671 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 60 52 E 2 2671 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 58 50 E 2 2671 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 56 48 E 2 2671 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 55 47 E 3 2671 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 55 47 E 3 2671 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 54 46 E 3 2671 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 52 44 E 2 2671 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 52 44 E 2 2671 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 51 43 E 2 2671 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 51 43 NE 3 2671 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 50 42 NE 3 2671 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 51 43 NE 3 2671 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 56 48 NE 2 2671 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 65 58 NE 2 2671 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 69 64 NE 2 3257 4040 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 72 68 S 2 5029 4040 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Sun 76 73 S 2 7505 6639 2599 Blue 6
1 PM Sun 77 74 S 2 7779 6916 2876 Blue 7
2 PM Sun 79 76 S 6 8809 7465 3425 Blue 9
3 PM Sun 80 75 S 6 8052 7191 3151 Blue 8
4 PM Sun 81 75 S 6 8052 7191 3151 Blue 8
5 PM Sun 78 71 S 8 6951 4962 922 Blue 4
6 PM Sun 71 63 S 8 3040 4040 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 63 55 S 8 2671 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 58 50 SW 5 2671 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 55 47 SW 5 2671 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 54 46 SW 5 2671 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 53 45 E 2 2671 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 52 44 E 2 2671 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 51 43 E 2 2671 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 50 42 E 2 2671 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 49 41 E 2 2671 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 48 40 E 2 2671 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 48 40 SW 2 2671 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 47 39 SW 2 2671 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 48 40 SW 2 2671 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 52 44 SW 2 2671 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 61 54 SW 2 2671 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 65 59 SW 2 2671 4040 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 68 63 S 6 3040 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 71 67 S 6 3951 4040 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 73 69 S 6 6338 4040 0 Blue 2
2 PM Mon 74 69 S 6 6338 4040 0 Blue 2
3 PM Mon 75 69 S 6 6338 4040 0 Blue 2
4 PM Mon 76 69 S 6 6338 4040 0 Blue 2
5 PM Mon 74 66 SW 9 3691 4040 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 67 59 SW 9 2671 4040 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 59 51 SW 9 2671 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 55 47 SW 9 2671 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 52 44 SW 9 2671 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 51 43 SW 9 2671 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 49 41 E 2 2671 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 49 41 E 2 2671 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 48 40 E 2 2671 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 47 39 E 2 2671 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 46 38 E 2 2671 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 45 37 E 2 2671 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 45 37 S 3 2671 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 44 36 S 3 2671 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 45 37 S 3 2671 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 49 41 S 3 2671 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 58 51 S 3 2671 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 62 56 S 3 2671 4040 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 65 60 N 11 2671 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 68 64 N 11 3257 4040 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 70 66 N 11 3691 4040 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 71 67 N 11 3951 4040 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 72 67 N 11 3951 4040 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 73 67 N 11 3951 4040 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 71 63 W 9 3040 4040 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 64 56 W 9 2671 4040 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 57 49 W 9 2671 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 52 44 W 9 2671 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 50 42 W 9 2671 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 48 40 W 9 2671 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 47 39 N 5 2671 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 47 39 N 5 2671 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 46 38 N 5 2671 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 44 36 N 5 2671 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 44 36 N 5 2671 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 43 35 N 5 2671 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 43 35 N 10 2671 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 42 34 N 10 2671 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 43 35 N 10 2671 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 48 40 N 10 2671 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 59 52 N 10 2671 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 63 57 N 10 2671 4040 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 66 62 W 7 2821 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 70 67 W 7 3951 4040 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 72 69 W 7 6338 4040 0 Blue 2
2 PM Wed 74 70 W 7 6672 4040 0 Blue 3
3 PM Wed 75 70 W 7 6672 4040 0 Blue 3
4 PM Wed 76 70 W 7 6672 4040 0 Blue 3
5 PM Wed 74 67 N 7 3951 4040 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 67 59 N 7 2671 4040 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 60 52 N 7 2671 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 56 48 N 7 2671 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 53 45 N 7 2671 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 52 44 N 7 2671 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 51 43 N 5 2671 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 50 42 N 5 2671 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 49 41 N 5 2671 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 48 40 N 5 2671 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 48 40 N 5 2671 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 47 39 N 5 2671 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 47 39 NE 3 2671 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 46 38 NE 3 2671 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 47 39 NE 3 2671 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 52 44 NE 3 2671 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 61 54 NE 3 2671 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 65 60 NE 3 2671 4040 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 68 64 SW 5 3257 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 72 69 SW 5 6338 4040 0 Blue 2
1 PM Thu 73 70 SW 5 6672 4040 0 Blue 3
2 PM Thu 75 72 SW 5 7229 6213 2173 Blue 5
3 PM Thu 76 72 SW 5 7229 6213 2173 Blue 5
4 PM Thu 77 71 SW 5 6951 4962 922 Blue 4
5 PM Thu 75 68 SW 9 5029 4040 0 Blue 1
6 PM Thu 68 60 SW 9 2671 4040 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 61 53 SW 9 2671 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 56 48 SW 9 2671 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 54 46 SW 9 2671 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 52 44 SW 9 2671 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 51 43 SE 2 2671 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 51 43 SE 2 2671 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 50 42 SE 2 2671 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 48 40 SE 2 2671 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 48 40 SE 2 2671 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 47 39 SE 2 2671 4040 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst