Detailed Predictions for: Marshall
Launch Altitude (f): 4040
LZ Altitude (f): 1700
Sounding

Station:

 KNKX

Date/Time:

 4 FEB 2012

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
4 AM Sat 40 32 N 20 2592 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 40 32 N 20 2592 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 39 31 N 20 2592 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 40 32 N 21 2592 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 42 34 N 21 2592 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 50 43 N 21 2592 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 55 49 N 20 2592 4040 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 58 52 N 20 2592 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 60 55 N 20 3312 4040 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 63 57 NE 3 6543 4040 0 Blue 1
2 PM Sat 63 57 NE 3 6543 4040 0 Blue 1
3 PM Sat 64 57 NE 3 6543 4040 0 Blue 1
4 PM Sat 60 52 N 5 2592 4040 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 57 49 N 5 2592 4040 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 53 45 N 5 2592 4040 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 52 44 N 14 2592 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 50 42 N 14 2592 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 48 40 N 14 2592 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 48 40 NE 18 2592 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 47 39 NE 18 2592 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 46 38 NE 18 2592 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 46 38 N 22 2592 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 45 37 N 22 2592 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 45 37 N 22 2592 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 45 37 N 24 2592 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 45 37 N 24 2592 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 44 36 N 24 2592 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 44 36 N 25 2592 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 47 39 N 25 2592 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 53 46 N 25 2592 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 56 50 N 21 2592 4040 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 58 52 N 21 2592 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 60 54 N 21 2592 4040 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 62 56 N 14 5760 4040 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 62 55 N 14 3312 4040 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 63 56 N 14 5760 4040 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 60 52 N 12 2592 4040 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 56 48 N 12 2592 4040 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 53 45 N 12 2592 4040 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 51 43 N 15 2592 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 49 41 N 15 2592 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 48 40 N 15 2592 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 47 39 N 16 2592 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 47 39 N 16 2592 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 46 38 N 16 2592 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 46 38 N 18 2592 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 45 37 N 18 2592 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 45 37 N 18 2592 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 45 37 N 14 2592 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 45 37 N 14 2592 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 44 36 N 14 2592 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 44 36 N 14 2592 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 47 39 N 14 2592 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 53 46 N 14 2592 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 57 50 S 2 2592 4040 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 59 53 S 2 2592 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 61 55 S 2 3312 4040 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 63 57 S 2 6543 4040 0 Blue 1
2 PM Mon 63 56 S 2 5760 4040 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 64 56 S 2 5760 4040 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 61 53 W 2 2592 4040 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 58 50 W 2 2592 4040 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 55 47 W 2 2592 4040 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 53 45 W 2 2592 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 51 43 W 2 2592 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 50 42 W 2 2592 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 49 41 N 3 2592 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 48 40 N 3 2592 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 48 40 N 3 2592 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 48 40 N 3 2592 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 47 39 N 3 2592 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 47 39 N 3 2592 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 47 39 E 3 2592 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 47 39 E 3 2592 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 46 38 E 3 2592 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 46 38 E 3 2592 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 48 40 E 3 2592 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 51 43 E 3 2592 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 53 46 E 8 2592 4040 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 54 47 E 8 2592 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 55 48 E 8 2592 4040 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 57 50 E 8 2592 4040 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 56 49 E 8 2592 4040 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 57 49 E 8 2592 4040 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 54 46 SW 3 2592 4040 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 52 44 SW 3 2592 4040 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 49 41 SW 3 2592 4040 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 48 40 SW 3 2592 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 46 38 SW 3 2592 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 45 37 SW 3 2592 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 45 37 N 6 2592 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 44 36 N 6 2592 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 44 36 N 6 2592 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 44 36 N 6 2592 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 43 35 N 6 2592 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 43 35 N 6 2592 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 43 35 N 9 2592 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 42 34 N 9 2592 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 42 34 N 9 2592 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 42 34 N 9 2592 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 44 36 N 9 2592 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 50 42 N 9 2592 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 53 46 N 13 2592 4040 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 55 48 N 13 2592 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 56 50 N 13 2592 4040 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 58 51 N 13 2592 4040 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 58 51 N 13 2592 4040 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 59 51 N 13 2592 4040 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 56 48 N 14 2592 4040 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 54 46 N 14 2592 4040 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 52 44 N 14 2592 4040 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 50 42 N 14 2592 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 49 41 N 14 2592 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 48 40 N 14 2592 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 47 39 NE 14 2592 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 47 39 NE 14 2592 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 47 39 NE 14 2592 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 46 38 NE 14 2592 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 46 38 NE 14 2592 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 46 38 NE 14 2592 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 46 38 NE 12 2592 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 45 37 NE 12 2592 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 45 37 NE 12 2592 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 46 38 NE 12 2592 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 48 40 NE 12 2592 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 54 47 NE 12 2592 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 58 52 N 16 2592 4040 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 61 56 N 16 5760 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 63 58 N 16 7138 4040 0 Blue 2
1 PM Thu 65 60 N 16 7337 6456 2416 Blue 4
2 PM Thu 65 59 N 16 7237 5556 1516 Blue 3
3 PM Thu 66 59 N 16 7237 5556 1516 Blue 3
4 PM Thu 63 55 N 14 3312 4040 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 60 52 N 14 2592 4040 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 57 49 N 14 2592 4040 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 55 47 N 14 2592 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 54 46 N 14 2592 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 53 45 N 14 2592 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 52 44 NE 13 2592 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 51 43 NE 13 2592 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 51 43 NE 13 2592 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 51 43 NE 13 2592 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 50 42 NE 13 2592 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 50 42 NE 13 2592 4040 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst