Detailed Predictions for: Marshall
Launch Altitude (f): 4040
LZ Altitude (f): 1700
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

21 JUL 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 65 63 E 2 2907 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 64 62 E 2 2907 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 64 62 E 2 2907 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 68 67 SE 2 2907 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 72 73 S 2 3098 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 76 79 S 2 4208 4040 0 Blue 6
11 AM Sun 81 85 S 3 5005 4600 560 Blue 12
12 Noon Sun 84 89 S 5 5532 5128 1088 Blue 16
1 PM Sun 88 94 S 5 6740 5911 1871 Blue 21
2 PM Sun 90 95 S 6 7006 6178 2138 Blue 22
3 PM Sun 90 94 S 7 6740 5911 1871 Blue 21
4 PM Sun 90 92 SW 7 6205 5521 1481 Blue 19
5 PM Sun 90 90 SW 7 5664 5259 1219 Blue 17
6 PM Sun 88 87 SW 7 5268 4865 825 Blue 14
7 PM Sun 84 82 SW 5 4607 4203 163 Blue 9
8 PM Sun 78 76 S 2 3810 4040 0 Blue 3
9 PM Sun 75 73 S 1 3098 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 73 71 SE 1 2907 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 71 69 E 1 2907 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 70 68 E 1 2907 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 70 68 E 1 2907 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 69 67 NE 2 2907 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 69 67 NE 2 2907 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 69 67 NE 2 2907 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 69 67 NE 2 2907 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 68 66 E 1 2907 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 68 66 S 1 2907 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 72 71 SW 1 2907 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 75 75 SW 1 3630 4040 0 Blue 2
10 AM Mon 79 81 S 2 4474 4071 31 Blue 8
11 AM Mon 83 85 S 3 5005 4600 560 Blue 12
12 Noon Mon 86 89 S 5 5532 5128 1088 Blue 16
1 PM Mon 89 92 SW 5 6205 5521 1481 Blue 19
2 PM Mon 91 94 SW 6 6740 5911 1871 Blue 21
3 PM Mon 91 93 SW 7 6473 5652 1612 Blue 20
4 PM Mon 92 93 SW 8 6473 5652 1612 Blue 20
5 PM Mon 91 91 SW 8 5935 5390 1350 Blue 18
6 PM Mon 89 87 SW 6 5268 4865 825 Blue 14
7 PM Mon 85 83 S 3 4740 4336 296 Blue 10
8 PM Mon 80 78 S 2 4076 4040 0 Blue 5
9 PM Mon 76 74 S 1 3365 4040 0 Blue 1
10 PM Mon 75 73 SE 1 3098 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 73 71 SE 1 2907 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 72 70 E 1 2907 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 72 70 NE 1 2907 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 71 69 N 2 2907 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 71 69 N 2 2907 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 71 69 N 2 2907 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 71 69 NE 2 2907 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 70 68 N 1 2907 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 70 68 W 1 2907 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 74 72 SW 1 2907 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 77 77 SW 1 3943 4040 0 Blue 4
10 AM Tue 81 82 SW 2 4607 4203 163 Blue 9
11 AM Tue 85 86 SW 3 5136 4732 692 Blue 13
12 Noon Tue 88 90 SW 5 5664 5259 1219 Blue 17
1 PM Tue 91 93 SW 6 6473 5652 1612 Blue 20
2 PM Tue 93 95 SW 6 7006 6178 2138 Blue 22
3 PM Tue 93 94 SW 7 6740 5911 1871 Blue 21
4 PM Tue 94 94 SW 8 6740 5911 1871 Blue 21
5 PM Tue 93 92 SW 8 6205 5521 1481 Blue 19
6 PM Tue 91 89 W 8 5532 5128 1088 Blue 16
7 PM Tue 88 86 NW 7 5136 4732 692 Blue 13
8 PM Tue 82 80 N 6 4341 4040 0 Blue 7
9 PM Tue 79 77 NE 3 3943 4040 0 Blue 4
10 PM Tue 77 75 E 2 3630 4040 0 Blue 2
11 PM Tue 76 74 E 1 3365 4040 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Wed 75 73 E 1 3098 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 75 73 E 1 3098 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 74 72 E 2 2907 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 74 72 E 2 2907 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 74 72 NE 2 2907 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 74 72 NE 3 2907 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 73 71 NE 3 2907 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 73 71 NE 3 2907 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 76 74 S 1 3365 4040 0 Blue 1
9 AM Wed 79 79 S 1 4208 4040 0 Blue 6
10 AM Wed 82 83 S 1 4740 4336 296 Blue 10
11 AM Wed 86 88 S 3 5400 4996 956 Blue 15
12 Noon Wed 88 91 S 3 5935 5390 1350 Blue 18
1 PM Wed 90 93 S 3 6473 5652 1612 Blue 20
2 PM Wed 92 95 SW 7 7006 6178 2138 Blue 22
3 PM Wed 92 94 SW 7 6740 5911 1871 Blue 21
4 PM Wed 93 94 SW 7 6740 5911 1871 Blue 21
5 PM Wed 92 91 SW 9 5935 5390 1350 Blue 18
6 PM Wed 90 88 SW 9 5400 4996 956 Blue 15
7 PM Wed 87 85 SW 9 5005 4600 560 Blue 12
8 PM Wed 82 80 S 5 4341 4040 0 Blue 7
9 PM Wed 78 76 S 5 3810 4040 0 Blue 3
10 PM Wed 76 74 S 5 3365 4040 0 Blue 1
11 PM Wed 75 73 SE 1 3098 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 74 72 SE 1 2907 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 74 72 SE 1 2907 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 73 71 E 2 2907 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 73 71 E 2 2907 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 73 71 E 2 2907 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 73 71 E 2 2907 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 72 70 E 2 2907 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 72 70 E 2 2907 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 76 75 S 1 3630 4040 0 Blue 2
9 AM Thu 78 78 S 1 4076 4040 0 Blue 5
10 AM Thu 81 82 S 1 4607 4203 163 Blue 9
11 AM Thu 85 88 S 5 5400 4996 956 Blue 15
12 Noon Thu 88 93 S 5 6473 5652 1612 Blue 20
1 PM Thu 90 95 S 5 7006 6178 2138 Blue 22
2 PM Thu 92 96 SW 8 7936 6444 2404 Blue 23
3 PM Thu 92 95 SW 8 7006 6178 2138 Blue 22
4 PM Thu 92 94 SW 8 6740 5911 1871 Blue 21
5 PM Thu 92 92 SW 9 6205 5521 1481 Blue 19
6 PM Thu 90 89 SW 9 5532 5128 1088 Blue 16
7 PM Thu 86 84 SW 9 4872 4468 428 Blue 11
8 PM Thu 80 78 S 2 4076 4040 0 Blue 5
9 PM Thu 77 75 S 2 3630 4040 0 Blue 2
10 PM Thu 75 73 S 2 3098 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 73 71 E 2 2907 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 72 70 E 2 2907 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 72 70 E 2 2907 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 71 69 SE 2 2907 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 71 69 SE 2 2907 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 71 69 SE 2 2907 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 71 69 E 2 2907 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 70 68 E 2 2907 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 70 68 E 2 2907 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 74 73 S 2 3098 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 77 77 S 2 3943 4040 0 Blue 4
10 AM Fri 80 82 S 2 4607 4203 163 Blue 9
11 AM Fri 84 88 S 5 5400 4996 956 Blue 15
12 Noon Fri 87 92 S 5 6205 5521 1481 Blue 19
1 PM Fri 90 96 S 5 7936 6444 2404 Blue 23
2 PM Fri 92 97 SW 8 8671 6709 2669 Blue 24
3 PM Fri 92 96 SW 8 7936 6444 2404 Blue 23
4 PM Fri 92 94 SW 8 6740 5911 1871 Blue 21
5 PM Fri 92 92 SW 9 6205 5521 1481 Blue 19
6 PM Fri 90 89 SW 9 5532 5128 1088 Blue 16
7 PM Fri 86 84 SW 9 4872 4468 428 Blue 11
8 PM Fri 80 78 SW 3 4076 4040 0 Blue 5
9 PM Fri 76 74 SW 3 3365 4040 0 Blue 1
10 PM Fri 74 72 SW 3 2907 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 73 71 SE 2 2907 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 71 69 SE 2 2907 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 71 69 SE 2 2907 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 70 68 SE 2 2907 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 70 68 SE 2 2907 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 70 68 SE 2 2907 4040 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst