Detailed Predictions for: Marshall
Launch Altitude (f): 4040
LZ Altitude (f): 1700
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

20 JUL 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Fri 66 64 E 2 2589 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 67 65 E 2 2589 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 69 67 E 2 2589 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 71 70 S 3 2677 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 73 73 S 3 3229 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 75 77 S 5 4282 4040 0 Blue 3
11 AM Fri 77 80 S 7 4763 4275 235 Blue 6
12 Noon Fri 79 83 S 7 5719 4754 714 Blue 9
1 PM Fri 82 86 SW 8 6550 5695 1655 Blue 12
2 PM Fri 84 87 SW 12 6750 5971 1931 Blue 13
3 PM Fri 84 86 SW 12 6550 5695 1655 Blue 12
4 PM Fri 85 86 SW 12 6550 5695 1655 Blue 12
5 PM Fri 83 83 SW 13 5719 4754 714 Blue 9
6 PM Fri 80 78 SW 12 4442 4040 0 Blue 4
7 PM Fri 76 74 SW 10 3440 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 72 70 S 5 2677 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 70 68 S 3 2589 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 68 66 S 3 2589 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 67 65 SE 1 2589 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 66 64 SE 1 2589 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 66 64 E 0 2589 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 65 63 SE 1 2589 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 65 63 SE 1 2589 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 64 62 SE 1 2589 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 64 62 SE 1 2589 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 65 63 SE 1 2589 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 66 64 SE 1 2589 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 68 67 S 2 2589 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 71 71 S 3 2862 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 74 76 S 3 4017 4040 0 Blue 2
11 AM Sat 77 80 SW 6 4763 4275 235 Blue 6
12 Noon Sat 80 84 S 7 5997 5137 1097 Blue 10
1 PM Sat 83 88 S 7 6894 6246 2206 Blue 14
2 PM Sat 85 89 SW 9 7384 6520 2480 Blue 15
3 PM Sat 85 88 SW 10 6894 6246 2206 Blue 14
4 PM Sat 86 88 SW 10 6894 6246 2206 Blue 14
5 PM Sat 84 84 SW 10 5997 5137 1097 Blue 10
6 PM Sat 81 80 SW 10 4763 4275 235 Blue 6
7 PM Sat 77 75 SW 9 3729 4040 0 Blue 1
8 PM Sat 73 71 SW 3 2862 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 70 68 SW 2 2589 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 69 67 S 2 2589 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 68 66 SE 1 2589 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 67 65 SE 1 2589 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 66 64 SE 0 2589 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 66 64 NW 0 2589 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 65 63 SE 0 2589 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 65 63 E 1 2589 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 65 63 E 2 2589 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 66 64 E 2 2589 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 67 65 E 1 2589 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 69 68 S 2 2589 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 72 72 S 3 3046 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 75 77 SW 3 4282 4040 0 Blue 3
11 AM Sun 78 82 SW 7 5438 4595 555 Blue 8
12 Noon Sun 82 87 SW 7 6750 5971 1931 Blue 13
1 PM Sun 85 91 SW 7 8644 6876 2836 Blue 17
2 PM Sun 88 93 SW 9 9322 7954 3914 Blue 19
3 PM Sun 88 92 SW 9 8984 7290 3250 Blue 18
4 PM Sun 89 91 SW 9 8644 6876 2836 Blue 17
5 PM Sun 87 87 SW 9 6750 5971 1931 Blue 13
6 PM Sun 85 84 SW 7 5997 5137 1097 Blue 10
7 PM Sun 81 79 SW 5 4603 4040 0 Blue 5
8 PM Sun 78 76 S 2 4017 4040 0 Blue 2
9 PM Sun 76 74 SW 1 3440 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 75 73 NW 0 3229 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 74 72 N 0 3046 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 74 72 N 2 3046 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 74 72 N 6 3046 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 74 72 N 9 3046 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 74 72 N 10 3046 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 73 71 N 12 2862 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 74 72 N 12 3046 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 77 75 N 12 3729 4040 0 Blue 1
7 AM Mon 81 79 N 12 4603 4040 0 Blue 5
8 AM Mon 86 85 N 18 6275 5417 1377 Blue 11
9 AM Mon 90 90 N 18 8058 6733 2693 Blue 16
10 AM Mon 93 95 N 18 9994 8920 4880 Blue 21
11 AM Mon 96 100 N 7 12066 10602 6562 White 26
12 Noon Mon 97 102 N 7 12482 11449 7409 White 28
1 PM Mon 98 103 N 7 12687 12687 8647 White 29
2 PM Mon 99 104 SW 12 12893 12893 8853 White 30
3 PM Mon 99 103 SW 12 12687 12687 8647 White 29
4 PM Mon 98 100 SW 12 12066 10602 6562 White 26
5 PM Mon 96 96 SW 12 10339 9254 5214 Blue 22
6 PM Mon 93 92 SW 12 8984 7290 3250 Blue 18
7 PM Mon 90 88 SW 12 6894 6246 2206 Blue 14
8 PM Mon 86 84 S 5 5997 5137 1097 Blue 10
9 PM Mon 83 81 S 5 5156 4435 395 Blue 7
10 PM Mon 80 78 S 5 4442 4040 0 Blue 4
11 PM Mon 79 77 NE 1 4282 4040 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Tue 79 77 NE 1 4282 4040 0 Blue 3
1 AM Tue 80 78 NE 1 4442 4040 0 Blue 4
2 AM Tue 80 78 N 13 4442 4040 0 Blue 4
3 AM Tue 81 79 N 13 4603 4040 0 Blue 5
4 AM Tue 82 80 N 13 4763 4275 235 Blue 6
5 AM Tue 82 80 N 14 4763 4275 235 Blue 6
6 AM Tue 84 82 N 14 5438 4595 555 Blue 8
7 AM Tue 86 84 N 14 5997 5137 1097 Blue 10
8 AM Tue 88 87 N 18 6750 5971 1931 Blue 13
9 AM Tue 92 92 N 18 8984 7290 3250 Blue 18
10 AM Tue 95 97 N 18 10688 9585 5545 Blue 23
11 AM Tue 98 102 SW 2 12482 11449 7409 White 28
12 Noon Tue 99 104 SW 2 12893 12893 8853 White 30
1 PM Tue 100 105 SW 2 13099 13099 9059 White 31
2 PM Tue 101 106 SW 13 13303 13303 9263 White 32
3 PM Tue 101 105 SW 13 13099 13099 9059 White 31
4 PM Tue 100 102 SW 13 12482 11449 7409 White 28
5 PM Tue 99 99 SW 12 11857 10259 6219 White 25
6 PM Tue 95 94 SW 12 9655 8583 4543 Blue 20
7 PM Tue 91 89 SW 12 7384 6520 2480 Blue 15
8 PM Tue 87 85 S 5 6275 5417 1377 Blue 11
9 PM Tue 84 82 S 5 5438 4595 555 Blue 8
10 PM Tue 82 80 S 5 4763 4275 235 Blue 6
11 PM Tue 81 79 E 2 4603 4040 0 Blue 5
12 Midnight Wed 80 78 E 2 4442 4040 0 Blue 4
1 AM Wed 80 78 E 2 4442 4040 0 Blue 4
2 AM Wed 80 78 N 7 4442 4040 0 Blue 4
3 AM Wed 80 78 N 7 4442 4040 0 Blue 4
4 AM Wed 81 79 N 7 4603 4040 0 Blue 5
5 AM Wed 82 80 N 9 4763 4275 235 Blue 6
6 AM Wed 83 81 N 9 5156 4435 395 Blue 7
7 AM Wed 86 84 N 9 5997 5137 1097 Blue 10
8 AM Wed 88 87 N 10 6750 5971 1931 Blue 13
9 AM Wed 91 91 N 10 8644 6876 2836 Blue 17
10 AM Wed 93 95 N 10 9994 8920 4880 Blue 21
11 AM Wed 95 99 SW 7 11857 10259 6219 White 25
12 Noon Wed 97 102 SW 7 12482 11449 7409 White 28
1 PM Wed 99 104 SW 7 12893 12893 8853 White 30
2 PM Wed 100 105 SW 14 13099 13099 9059 White 31
3 PM Wed 101 105 SW 14 13099 13099 9059 White 31
4 PM Wed 100 102 SW 14 12482 11449 7409 White 28
5 PM Wed 98 98 SW 12 11036 9917 5877 Blue 24
6 PM Wed 94 93 SW 12 9322 7954 3914 Blue 19
7 PM Wed 90 88 SW 12 6894 6246 2206 Blue 14
8 PM Wed 86 84 S 5 5997 5137 1097 Blue 10
9 PM Wed 82 80 S 5 4763 4275 235 Blue 6
10 PM Wed 80 78 S 5 4442 4040 0 Blue 4
11 PM Wed 79 77 E 1 4282 4040 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Thu 79 77 E 1 4282 4040 0 Blue 3
1 AM Thu 79 77 E 1 4282 4040 0 Blue 3
2 AM Thu 78 76 N 6 4017 4040 0 Blue 2
3 AM Thu 78 76 N 6 4017 4040 0 Blue 2
4 AM Thu 77 75 N 6 3729 4040 0 Blue 1

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst