Detailed Predictions for: Marshall
Launch Altitude (f): 4040
LZ Altitude (f): 1700
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

21 JAN 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Sun 37 35 N 24 2739 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 36 34 N 24 2739 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 36 34 N 23 2739 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 37 35 N 22 2739 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 39 37 N 21 2739 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 42 41 N 21 2739 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 45 44 N 21 3422 4040 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 48 48 N 15 5391 4040 0 Blue 4
12 Noon Sun 50 50 N 14 5707 4961 921 Blue 6
1 PM Sun 52 52 N 12 5963 5567 1527 Blue 8
2 PM Sun 54 53 N 10 7127 5695 1655 Blue 9
3 PM Sun 53 51 N 9 5835 5343 1303 Blue 7
4 PM Sun 53 51 N 8 5835 5343 1303 Blue 7
5 PM Sun 51 49 N 6 5578 4134 94 Blue 5
6 PM Sun 47 45 N 7 3832 4040 0 Blue 1
7 PM Sun 44 42 N 9 2739 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 42 40 NE 8 2739 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 42 40 NE 8 2739 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 41 39 N 9 2739 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 41 39 N 10 2739 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 41 39 N 10 2739 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 42 40 N 12 2739 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 42 40 N 13 2739 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 42 40 N 13 2739 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 42 40 N 13 2739 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 42 40 N 13 2739 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 41 39 N 13 2739 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 41 39 N 14 2739 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 43 41 N 15 2739 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 46 44 N 15 3422 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 49 48 N 14 5391 4040 0 Blue 4
11 AM Mon 52 52 N 13 5963 5567 1527 Blue 8
12 Noon Mon 55 55 N 14 7649 5951 1911 Blue 11
1 PM Mon 57 57 N 15 8064 7409 3369 Blue 13
2 PM Mon 58 57 N 14 8064 7409 3369 Blue 13
3 PM Mon 58 56 N 15 7857 6970 2930 Blue 12
4 PM Mon 58 56 N 16 7857 6970 2930 Blue 12
5 PM Mon 57 55 N 15 7649 5951 1911 Blue 11
6 PM Mon 55 53 N 16 7127 5695 1655 Blue 9
7 PM Mon 53 51 N 18 5835 5343 1303 Blue 7
8 PM Mon 52 50 N 18 5707 4961 921 Blue 6
9 PM Mon 52 50 N 18 5707 4961 921 Blue 6
10 PM Mon 52 50 N 20 5707 4961 921 Blue 6
11 PM Mon 51 49 N 20 5578 4134 94 Blue 5
12 Midnight Tue 50 48 N 21 5391 4040 0 Blue 4
1 AM Tue 50 48 N 22 5391 4040 0 Blue 4
2 AM Tue 49 47 N 22 5000 4040 0 Blue 3
3 AM Tue 49 47 N 22 5000 4040 0 Blue 3
4 AM Tue 49 47 N 22 5000 4040 0 Blue 3
5 AM Tue 47 45 N 23 3832 4040 0 Blue 1
6 AM Tue 46 44 N 24 3422 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 46 44 N 26 3422 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 48 46 N 26 4146 4040 0 Blue 2
9 AM Tue 50 49 N 26 5578 4134 94 Blue 5
10 AM Tue 54 54 N 25 7440 5823 1783 Blue 10
11 AM Tue 58 58 N 24 8198 7616 3576 Blue 14
12 Noon Tue 61 61 N 23 9107 8177 4137 Blue 17
1 PM Tue 64 64 N 22 10288 9007 4967 Blue 20
2 PM Tue 65 64 N 21 10288 9007 4967 Blue 20
3 PM Tue 65 64 N 20 10288 9007 4967 Blue 20
4 PM Tue 65 63 N 17 10051 8523 4483 Blue 19
5 PM Tue 63 61 N 17 9107 8177 4137 Blue 17
6 PM Tue 60 58 N 18 8198 7616 3576 Blue 14
7 PM Tue 57 55 N 18 7649 5951 1911 Blue 11
8 PM Tue 56 54 N 20 7440 5823 1783 Blue 10
9 PM Tue 54 52 N 20 5963 5567 1527 Blue 8
10 PM Tue 54 52 N 18 5963 5567 1527 Blue 8
11 PM Tue 53 51 N 18 5835 5343 1303 Blue 7
12 Midnight Wed 52 50 N 18 5707 4961 921 Blue 6
1 AM Wed 52 50 N 18 5707 4961 921 Blue 6
2 AM Wed 51 49 N 17 5578 4134 94 Blue 5
3 AM Wed 50 48 N 18 5391 4040 0 Blue 4
4 AM Wed 50 48 N 13 5391 4040 0 Blue 4
5 AM Wed 49 47 N 13 5000 4040 0 Blue 3
6 AM Wed 49 47 N 13 5000 4040 0 Blue 3
7 AM Wed 50 48 NW 6 5391 4040 0 Blue 4
8 AM Wed 53 51 NW 6 5835 5343 1303 Blue 7
9 AM Wed 57 56 NW 6 7857 6970 2930 Blue 12
10 AM Wed 60 59 W 2 8317 7822 3782 Blue 15
11 AM Wed 62 62 W 2 9585 8296 4256 Blue 18
12 Noon Wed 64 64 W 2 10288 9007 4967 Blue 20
1 PM Wed 65 65 SW 5 10431 9479 5439 Blue 21
2 PM Wed 66 65 SW 5 10431 9479 5439 Blue 21
3 PM Wed 66 65 SW 5 10431 9479 5439 Blue 21
4 PM Wed 65 63 SW 7 10051 8523 4483 Blue 19
5 PM Wed 63 61 SW 7 9107 8177 4137 Blue 17
6 PM Wed 60 58 SW 7 8198 7616 3576 Blue 14
7 PM Wed 57 55 S 6 7649 5951 1911 Blue 11
8 PM Wed 54 52 S 6 5963 5567 1527 Blue 8
9 PM Wed 53 51 S 6 5835 5343 1303 Blue 7
10 PM Wed 52 50 SE 5 5707 4961 921 Blue 6
11 PM Wed 51 49 SE 5 5578 4134 94 Blue 5
12 Midnight Thu 50 48 SE 5 5391 4040 0 Blue 4
1 AM Thu 49 47 SE 5 5000 4040 0 Blue 3
2 AM Thu 48 46 SE 5 4146 4040 0 Blue 2
3 AM Thu 47 45 SE 5 3832 4040 0 Blue 1
4 AM Thu 46 44 SE 5 3422 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 45 43 SE 5 2739 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 45 43 SE 5 2739 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 45 43 SE 6 2739 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 45 43 SE 6 2739 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 46 44 SE 6 3422 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 47 46 SE 9 4146 4040 0 Blue 2
11 AM Thu 50 49 SE 9 5578 4134 94 Blue 5
12 Noon Thu 52 51 SE 9 5835 5343 1303 Blue 7
1 PM Thu 54 53 SW 14 7127 5695 1655 Blue 9
2 PM Thu 54 53 SW 14 7127 5695 1655 Blue 9
3 PM Thu 53 51 SW 14 5835 5343 1303 Blue 7
4 PM Thu 51 49 NW 18 5578 4134 94 Blue 5
5 PM Thu 49 47 NW 18 5000 4040 0 Blue 3
6 PM Thu 46 44 NW 18 3422 4040 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 44 42 NW 21 2739 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 43 41 NW 21 2739 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 43 41 NW 21 2739 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 43 41 N 21 2739 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 43 41 N 21 2739 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 43 41 N 21 2739 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 43 41 N 18 2739 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 43 41 N 18 2739 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 43 41 N 18 2739 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 43 41 N 16 2739 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 44 42 N 16 2739 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 44 42 N 16 2739 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 44 42 N 16 2739 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 45 43 N 16 2739 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 47 46 N 16 4146 4040 0 Blue 2
10 AM Fri 49 48 N 16 5391 4040 0 Blue 4
11 AM Fri 52 52 N 16 5963 5567 1527 Blue 8
12 Noon Fri 54 54 N 16 7440 5823 1783 Blue 10
1 PM Fri 57 57 N 14 8064 7409 3369 Blue 13
2 PM Fri 58 57 N 14 8064 7409 3369 Blue 13
3 PM Fri 59 57 N 14 8064 7409 3369 Blue 13
4 PM Fri 58 56 NE 12 7857 6970 2930 Blue 12
5 PM Fri 56 54 NE 12 7440 5823 1783 Blue 10
6 PM Fri 53 51 NE 12 5835 5343 1303 Blue 7
7 PM Fri 51 49 NE 14 5578 4134 94 Blue 5
8 PM Fri 50 48 NE 14 5391 4040 0 Blue 4
9 PM Fri 50 48 NE 14 5391 4040 0 Blue 4
10 PM Fri 50 48 N 16 5391 4040 0 Blue 4
11 PM Fri 49 47 N 16 5000 4040 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Sat 49 47 N 16 5000 4040 0 Blue 3
1 AM Sat 48 46 N 18 4146 4040 0 Blue 2
2 AM Sat 48 46 N 18 4146 4040 0 Blue 2
3 AM Sat 48 46 N 18 4146 4040 0 Blue 2

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst