Detailed Predictions for: Marshall
Launch Altitude (f): 4040
LZ Altitude (f): 1700
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Wed 43 41 SE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Wed 44 42 SE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Wed 43 41 SE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Wed 43 41 SE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Wed 44 42 SE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Wed 48 46 SE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Wed 50 48 SE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Wed 51 49 SE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Wed 51 49 SE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Wed 51 49 SE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Wed 52 50 SE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Wed 51 49 SE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Wed 50 48 SE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Wed 49 47 SE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Wed 48 46 SE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Wed 48 46 SE 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Wed 48 46 SE 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Wed 47 45 SE 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Wed 48 46 SE 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Wed 47 45 SE 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Thu 47 45 S 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Thu 47 45 S 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Thu 47 45 S 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Thu 46 44 S 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Thu 46 44 S 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Thu 46 44 S 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 46 44 S 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 46 44 S 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 47 45 SE 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 50 48 SE 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 52 50 SE 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 52 50 SE 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 52 50 SE 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 52 50 S 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 53 51 SE 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 52 50 S 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 50 48 S 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 47 45 S 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 46 44 S 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 46 44 S 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 45 43 S 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 45 43 S 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 46 44 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 45 43 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 45 43 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 44 42 S 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 44 42 S 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 43 41 NE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 43 41 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 44 42 N 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 43 41 N 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 43 41 N 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 45 43 N 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 51 49 N 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 53 52 N 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 54 54 N 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 55 55 N 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 55 55 N 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 56 55 N 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 54 52 N 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 52 50 N 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 49 47 N 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 47 45 N 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 46 44 N 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 46 44 N 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 46 44 N 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 46 44 N 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 46 44 N 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 46 44 N 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 45 43 N 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 44 42 N 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 44 42 N 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 43 41 N 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 44 42 N 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 44 42 N 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 44 42 N 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 46 44 N 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 53 52 N 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 56 55 N 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 58 58 N 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 58 58 N 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 60 60 N 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 59 58 N 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 58 56 N 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 56 54 N 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 52 50 N 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 49 47 N 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 49 47 N 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 49 47 N 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 49 47 N 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 49 47 N 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 48 46 N 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 48 46 N 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 47 45 N 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 47 45 N 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 46 44 N 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 45 43 N 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 46 44 N 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 46 44 N 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 46 44 N 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 48 46 N 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 56 55 N 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 60 59 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 62 61 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 62 62 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 64 63 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 63 62 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 61 59 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 58 56 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 53 51 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 50 48 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 49 47 N 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 49 47 N 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 49 47 N 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 49 47 N 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 48 46 N 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 48 46 N 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 47 45 N 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 46 44 N 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 45 43 N 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 44 42 N 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 45 43 N 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 44 42 N 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 44 42 NE 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 46 44 NE 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 53 51 NE 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 56 55 NE 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 57 57 NE 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 58 58 NE 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 59 59 NE 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 58 57 NE 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 56 54 NE 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 54 52 NE 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 49 47 NE 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 46 44 NE 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 46 44 N 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 45 43 N 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 45 43 N 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 46 44 N 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 45 43 N 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 44 42 N 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 44 42 N 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 43 41 N 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 42 40 N 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst