Detailed Predictions for: Marshall
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.2099918919, -117.302860125, 4040
LZ Altitude (f): 1700
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

19 JAN 2022

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 50 48 SW 2 6 3366 4040 0 White 0
1 AM Wed 50 48 N 5 10 3366 4040 0 White 0
2 AM Wed 50 48 N 6 12 3366 4040 0 White 0
3 AM Wed 49 47 NNE 8 13 3144 4040 0 White 0
4 AM Wed 48 46 N 8 14 2867 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 48 46 NNE 8 14 2867 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 48 46 NNE 10 17 2867 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 48 46 NNE 10 18 2867 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 50 48 NNE 10 17 3366 4040 0 White 0
9 AM Wed 52 51 N 9 16 4031 4040 0 White 2
10 AM Wed 54 54 N 9 16 4702 4464 424 White 5
11 AM Wed 57 58 N 9 17 5483 5120 1080 Blue 9
12 Noon Wed 59 60 N 10 18 5720 5355 1315 Blue 11
1 PM Wed 62 62 N 11 18 6451 5591 1551 White 13
2 PM Wed 63 63 N 11 18 6667 5709 1669 White 14
3 PM Wed 62 61 N 11 18 5838 5473 1433 Blue 12
4 PM Wed 61 59 NNE 11 19 5601 5238 1198 Blue 10
5 PM Wed 58 56 NNE 13 23 5145 4829 789 White 7
6 PM Wed 56 54 NNE 16 25 4702 4464 424 White 5
7 PM Wed 55 53 NNE 17 27 4479 4281 241 White 4
8 PM Wed 55 53 N 19 29 4479 4281 241 White 4
9 PM Wed 54 52 N 20 32 4255 4098 58 White 3
10 PM Wed 53 51 N 23 34 4031 4040 0 White 2
11 PM Wed 54 52 N 25 39 4255 4098 58 White 3
12 Midnight Thu 54 52 N 28 43 4255 4098 58 White 3
1 AM Thu 53 51 N 31 47 4031 4040 0 White 2
2 AM Thu 53 51 N 31 47 4031 4040 0 White 2
3 AM Thu 53 51 N 31 47 4031 4040 0 White 2
4 AM Thu 52 50 N 31 46 3810 4040 0 White 0
5 AM Thu 52 50 N 31 47 3810 4040 0 White 0
6 AM Thu 51 49 N 32 48 3588 4040 0 White 0
7 AM Thu 50 48 N 33 50 3366 4040 0 White 0
8 AM Thu 52 50 N 36 54 3810 4040 0 White 0
9 AM Thu 54 53 N 39 58 4479 4281 241 White 4
10 AM Thu 56 56 N 41 60 5145 4829 789 White 7
11 AM Thu 58 59 N 40 58 5601 5238 1198 Blue 10
12 Noon Thu 60 61 N 37 56 5838 5473 1433 Blue 12
1 PM Thu 61 61 N 34 51 5838 5473 1433 Blue 12
2 PM Thu 62 62 N 32 48 6451 5591 1551 White 13
3 PM Thu 62 61 N 29 43 5838 5473 1433 Blue 12
4 PM Thu 61 59 N 27 41 5601 5238 1198 Blue 10
5 PM Thu 59 57 N 26 41 5364 5002 962 White 8
6 PM Thu 56 54 N 27 41 4702 4464 424 White 5
7 PM Thu 54 52 N 27 41 4255 4098 58 White 3
8 PM Thu 53 51 NNE 27 41 4031 4040 0 White 2
9 PM Thu 52 50 NNE 26 40 3810 4040 0 White 0
10 PM Thu 52 50 NNE 26 40 3810 4040 0 White 0
11 PM Thu 52 50 NNE 25 39 3810 4040 0 White 0
12 Midnight Fri 52 50 NNE 25 37 3810 4040 0 White 0
1 AM Fri 52 50 NNE 24 36 3810 4040 0 White 0
2 AM Fri 52 50 NNE 24 36 3810 4040 0 White 0
3 AM Fri 52 50 NNE 23 35 3810 4040 0 White 0
4 AM Fri 52 50 NNE 21 34 3810 4040 0 White 0
5 AM Fri 52 50 NNE 20 32 3810 4040 0 White 0
6 AM Fri 51 49 NNE 19 29 3588 4040 0 White 0
7 AM Fri 52 50 NNE 18 28 3810 4040 0 White 0
8 AM Fri 54 52 NNE 18 28 4255 4098 58 White 3
9 AM Fri 56 55 NNE 19 29 4925 4647 607 White 6
10 AM Fri 58 58 N 20 32 5483 5120 1080 Blue 9
11 AM Fri 60 61 N 19 31 5838 5473 1433 Blue 12
12 Noon Fri 62 63 N 19 29 6667 5709 1669 White 14
1 PM Fri 62 62 N 19 29 6451 5591 1551 White 13
2 PM Fri 63 63 N 19 31 6667 5709 1669 White 14
3 PM Fri 62 61 N 21 33 5838 5473 1433 Blue 12
4 PM Fri 61 59 N 23 35 5601 5238 1198 Blue 10
5 PM Fri 59 57 N 23 35 5364 5002 962 White 8
6 PM Fri 56 54 NNE 23 35 4702 4464 424 White 5
7 PM Fri 54 52 NNE 23 35 4255 4098 58 White 3
8 PM Fri 53 51 NNE 23 35 4031 4040 0 White 2
9 PM Fri 53 51 NNE 23 35 4031 4040 0 White 2
10 PM Fri 52 50 NNE 24 36 3810 4040 0 White 0
11 PM Fri 51 49 NNE 26 40 3588 4040 0 White 0
12 Midnight Sat 50 48 NNE 28 42 3366 4040 0 White 0
1 AM Sat 50 48 NNE 29 44 3366 4040 0 White 0
2 AM Sat 49 47 NNE 29 44 3144 4040 0 White 0
3 AM Sat 48 46 NNE 27 42 2867 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 48 46 NNE 26 40 2867 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 48 46 NNE 26 40 2867 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 47 45 NNE 26 40 2700 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 48 46 N 20 32 2867 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 49 47 N 20 32 3144 4040 0 White 0
9 AM Sat 51 50 N 20 32 3810 4040 0 White 0
10 AM Sat 54 54 NNE 26 40 4702 4464 424 White 5
11 AM Sat 56 56 NNE 26 40 5145 4829 789 White 7
12 Noon Sat 58 59 NNE 26 40 5601 5238 1198 Blue 10
1 PM Sat 60 60 NNE 28 43 5720 5355 1315 Blue 11
2 PM Sat 60 60 NNE 28 43 5720 5355 1315 Blue 11
3 PM Sat 60 59 NNE 28 43 5601 5238 1198 Blue 10
4 PM Sat 59 57 NNE 28 42 5364 5002 962 White 8
5 PM Sat 57 55 NNE 28 42 4925 4647 607 White 6
6 PM Sat 55 53 NNE 28 42 4479 4281 241 White 4
7 PM Sat 54 52 NNE 23 35 4255 4098 58 White 3
8 PM Sat 53 51 NNE 23 35 4031 4040 0 White 2
9 PM Sat 53 51 NNE 23 35 4031 4040 0 White 2
10 PM Sat 53 51 NNE 21 33 4031 4040 0 White 2
11 PM Sat 53 51 NNE 21 33 4031 4040 0 White 2
12 Midnight Sun 53 51 NNE 21 33 4031 4040 0 White 2
1 AM Sun 53 51 NNE 21 33 4031 4040 0 White 2
2 AM Sun 53 51 NNE 21 33 4031 4040 0 White 2
3 AM Sun 53 51 NNE 21 33 4031 4040 0 White 2
4 AM Sun 52 50 NNE 20 32 3810 4040 0 White 0
5 AM Sun 52 50 NNE 20 32 3810 4040 0 White 0
6 AM Sun 51 49 NNE 20 32 3588 4040 0 White 0
7 AM Sun 52 50 N 19 31 3810 4040 0 White 0
8 AM Sun 53 51 N 19 31 4031 4040 0 White 2
9 AM Sun 56 55 N 19 31 4925 4647 607 White 6
10 AM Sun 59 59 NNE 18 28 5601 5238 1198 Blue 10
11 AM Sun 61 62 NNE 18 28 6451 5591 1551 White 13
12 Noon Sun 62 63 NNE 18 28 6667 5709 1669 White 14
1 PM Sun 64 64 NNE 14 24 6882 5827 1787 White 15
2 PM Sun 64 64 NNE 14 24 6882 5827 1787 White 15
3 PM Sun 64 63 NNE 14 24 6667 5709 1669 White 14
4 PM Sun 63 61 NNE 12 21 5838 5473 1433 Blue 12
5 PM Sun 61 59 NNE 12 21 5601 5238 1198 Blue 10
6 PM Sun 59 57 NNE 12 21 5364 5002 962 White 8
7 PM Sun 56 54 NNE 14 24 4702 4464 424 White 5
8 PM Sun 56 54 NNE 14 24 4702 4464 424 White 5
9 PM Sun 55 53 NNE 14 24 4479 4281 241 White 4
10 PM Sun 55 53 NNE 13 23 4479 4281 241 White 4
11 PM Sun 55 53 NNE 13 23 4479 4281 241 White 4
12 Midnight Mon 55 53 NNE 13 23 4479 4281 241 White 4
1 AM Mon 55 53 NNE 14 25 4479 4281 241 White 4
2 AM Mon 55 53 NNE 14 25 4479 4281 241 White 4
3 AM Mon 55 53 NNE 14 25 4479 4281 241 White 4
4 AM Mon 55 53 NNE 16 25 4479 4281 241 White 4
5 AM Mon 55 53 NNE 16 25 4479 4281 241 White 4
6 AM Mon 55 53 NNE 16 25 4479 4281 241 White 4
7 AM Mon 55 53 NNE 14 24 4479 4281 241 White 4
8 AM Mon 57 55 NNE 14 24 4925 4647 607 White 6
9 AM Mon 59 58 NNE 14 24 5483 5120 1080 Blue 9
10 AM Mon 62 62 NNE 9 16 6451 5591 1551 White 13
11 AM Mon 63 64 9 16 6882 5827 1787 White 15
12 Noon Mon 65 66 9 16 7312 7312 3272 White 17
1 PM Mon 66 66 N 8 13 7312 7312 3272 White 17
2 PM Mon 66 66 N 8 13 7312 7312 3272 White 17
3 PM Mon 65 64 N 8 13 6882 5827 1787 White 15
4 PM Mon 64 62 N 5 11 6451 5591 1551 White 13
5 PM Mon 61 59 N 5 11 5601 5238 1198 Blue 10
6 PM Mon 59 57 N 5 11 5364 5002 962 White 8
7 PM Mon 56 54 NE 5 11 4702 4464 424 White 5
8 PM Mon 55 53 NE 5 11 4479 4281 241 White 4
9 PM Mon 54 52 NE 5 11 4255 4098 58 White 3
10 PM Mon 53 51 ENE 2 6 4031 4040 0 White 2

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst