Detailed Predictions for: Marshall
Launch Altitude (f): 4040
LZ Altitude (f): 1700
Sounding

Station:

 KNKX

Date/Time:

 5 JUL 2008

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Sat 69 61 WSW 2 2507 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 68 60 WSW 2 2507 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 67 59 SSW 0 2507 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 66 58 SSW 0 2507 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 66 58 SSW 0 2507 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 65 57 S 1 2507 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 66 58 S 1 2507 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 72 64 S 1 2507 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 84 77 SW 2 2903 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 89 84 SW 2 4183 4040 0 Blue 3
10 AM Sat 92 88 SW 2 5158 4423 383 Blue 7
11 AM Sat 95 93 SW 6 6270 5587 1547 Blue 12
12 Noon Sat 97 96 SW 6 11591 6248 2208 Blue 15
1 PM Sat 98 97 SW 6 14390 7710 3670 Blue 16
2 PM Sat 100 99 SW 10 15884 10309 6269 Blue 18
3 PM Sat 100 98 SW 10 15165 9141 5101 Blue 17
4 PM Sat 100 96 SW 10 11591 6248 2208 Blue 15
5 PM Sat 99 93 WSW 9 6270 5587 1547 Blue 12
6 PM Sat 95 88 WSW 9 5158 4423 383 Blue 7
7 PM Sat 89 81 WSW 9 3450 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 82 74 SW 6 2507 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 77 69 SW 6 2507 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 73 65 SW 6 2507 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 70 62 SW 3 2507 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 69 61 SW 3 2507 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 68 60 SW 3 2507 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 67 59 WSW 3 2507 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 66 58 WSW 3 2507 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 66 58 WSW 3 2507 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 65 57 SW 2 2507 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 66 58 SW 2 2507 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 72 64 SW 2 2507 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 84 77 SW 2 2903 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 89 84 SW 2 4183 4040 0 Blue 3
10 AM Sun 92 89 SW 2 5382 4671 631 Blue 8
11 AM Sun 95 93 SSW 5 6270 5587 1547 Blue 12
12 Noon Sun 97 96 SSW 5 11591 6248 2208 Blue 15
1 PM Sun 98 98 SSW 5 15165 9141 5101 Blue 17
2 PM Sun 100 99 SW 7 15884 10309 6269 Blue 18
3 PM Sun 100 98 SW 7 15165 9141 5101 Blue 17
4 PM Sun 100 96 SW 7 11591 6248 2208 Blue 15
5 PM Sun 99 94 WSW 8 7959 5808 1768 Blue 13
6 PM Sun 95 88 WSW 8 5158 4423 383 Blue 7
7 PM Sun 89 81 WSW 8 3450 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 82 74 SW 6 2507 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 77 69 SW 6 2507 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 73 65 SW 6 2507 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 70 62 SSW 2 2507 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 69 61 SSW 2 2507 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 68 60 SSW 2 2507 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 67 59 SSW 1 2507 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 66 58 SSW 1 2507 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 66 58 SSW 1 2507 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 65 57 S 1 2507 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 66 58 S 1 2507 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 72 64 S 1 2507 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 84 77 SSW 2 2903 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 89 84 SSW 2 4183 4040 0 Blue 3
10 AM Mon 92 88 SSW 2 5158 4423 383 Blue 7
11 AM Mon 95 93 SW 4 6270 5587 1547 Blue 12
12 Noon Mon 97 96 SW 4 11591 6248 2208 Blue 15
1 PM Mon 98 97 SW 4 14390 7710 3670 Blue 16
2 PM Mon 100 99 SW 6 15884 10309 6269 Blue 18
3 PM Mon 100 98 SW 6 15165 9141 5101 Blue 17
4 PM Mon 100 96 SW 6 11591 6248 2208 Blue 15
5 PM Mon 99 93 SW 7 6270 5587 1547 Blue 12
6 PM Mon 95 88 SW 7 5158 4423 383 Blue 7
7 PM Mon 89 81 SW 7 3450 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 82 74 S 5 2507 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 77 69 S 5 2507 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 74 66 S 5 2507 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 71 63 SSE 2 2507 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 70 62 SSE 2 2507 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 69 61 SSE 2 2507 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 68 60 ESE 2 2507 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 67 59 ESE 2 2507 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 67 59 ESE 2 2507 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 66 58 E 2 2507 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 67 59 E 2 2507 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 73 65 E 2 2507 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 86 79 E 2 3176 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 90 85 E 2 4434 4040 0 Blue 4
10 AM Tue 93 89 E 2 5382 4671 631 Blue 8
11 AM Tue 97 95 SSW 10 9394 6028 1988 Blue 14
12 Noon Tue 99 98 SSW 10 15165 9141 5101 Blue 17
1 PM Tue 100 99 SSW 10 15884 10309 6269 Blue 18
2 PM Tue 102 101 SSW 10 17164 14867 10827 Blue 20
3 PM Tue 102 99 SSW 10 15884 10309 6269 Blue 18
4 PM Tue 102 98 SSW 10 15165 9141 5101 Blue 17
5 PM Tue 101 95 SSW 10 9394 6028 1988 Blue 14
6 PM Tue 97 90 SSW 10 5605 4919 879 Blue 9
7 PM Tue 91 83 SSW 10 3931 4040 0 Blue 2
8 PM Tue 84 76 SSW 10 2766 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 79 71 SSW 10 2507 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 75 67 SSW 10 2507 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 72 64 S 5 2507 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 71 63 S 5 2507 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 70 62 S 5 2507 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 69 61 S 5 2507 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 68 60 S 5 2507 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 68 60 S 5 2507 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 67 59 S 5 2507 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 68 60 S 5 2507 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 74 66 S 5 2507 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 86 79 S 5 3176 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 91 86 S 5 4685 4040 0 Blue 5
10 AM Wed 94 90 S 5 5605 4919 879 Blue 9
11 AM Wed 97 95 SSW 8 9394 6028 1988 Blue 14
12 Noon Wed 99 98 SSW 8 15165 9141 5101 Blue 17
1 PM Wed 100 99 SSW 8 15884 10309 6269 Blue 18
2 PM Wed 102 101 SSW 8 17164 14867 10827 Blue 20
3 PM Wed 102 100 SSW 8 16558 14091 10051 Blue 19
4 PM Wed 102 98 SSW 8 15165 9141 5101 Blue 17
5 PM Wed 101 95 SSW 8 9394 6028 1988 Blue 14
6 PM Wed 97 90 SSW 8 5605 4919 879 Blue 9
7 PM Wed 91 83 SSW 8 3931 4040 0 Blue 2
8 PM Wed 84 76 SSW 8 2766 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 79 71 SSW 8 2507 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 75 67 SSW 8 2507 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 72 64 SSE 5 2507 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 71 63 SSE 5 2507 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 70 62 SSE 5 2507 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 69 61 SSE 5 2507 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 68 60 SSE 5 2507 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 68 60 SSE 5 2507 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 67 59 SSE 5 2507 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 68 60 SSE 5 2507 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 74 66 SSE 5 2507 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 85 78 SSE 5 3039 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 89 83 SSE 5 3931 4040 0 Blue 2
10 AM Thu 92 88 SSE 5 5158 4423 383 Blue 7
11 AM Thu 95 92 SSW 6 6049 5365 1325 Blue 11
12 Noon Thu 97 95 SSW 6 9394 6028 1988 Blue 14
1 PM Thu 98 96 SSW 6 11591 6248 2208 Blue 15
2 PM Thu 100 98 SSW 6 15165 9141 5101 Blue 17
3 PM Thu 100 97 SSW 6 14390 7710 3670 Blue 16
4 PM Thu 100 95 SSW 6 9394 6028 1988 Blue 14

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the Weather Channel website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the Weather Channel estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the Weather Channel website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst