Detailed Predictions for: Marshall
Launch Altitude (f): 4040
LZ Altitude (f): 1700
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

25 MAR 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Mon 46 44 NE 3 2785 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 47 45 NE 5 2785 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 46 44 NE 5 2785 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 49 47 NE 5 2785 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 55 54 E 2 2785 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 59 60 SE 2 3176 4040 0 Blue 1
11 AM Mon 62 65 S 5 4223 4040 0 Blue 6
12 Noon Mon 65 69 S 6 6904 4522 482 Blue 10
1 PM Mon 67 71 S 6 7851 5700 1660 Blue 12
2 PM Mon 69 72 S 7 8147 6776 2736 Blue 13
3 PM Mon 68 70 SW 7 7553 4733 693 Blue 11
4 PM Mon 69 69 SW 8 6904 4522 482 Blue 10
5 PM Mon 68 67 SW 9 4745 4040 0 Blue 8
6 PM Mon 63 61 SW 8 3282 4040 0 Blue 2
7 PM Mon 58 56 SW 7 2785 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 55 53 SE 3 2785 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 53 51 SE 5 2785 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 52 50 SE 3 2785 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 51 49 E 3 2785 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 49 47 E 3 2785 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 49 47 E 3 2785 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 48 46 E 3 2785 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 49 47 E 3 2785 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 48 46 E 3 2785 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 47 45 E 3 2785 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 48 46 E 3 2785 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 47 45 E 3 2785 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 50 48 E 3 2785 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 55 54 SE 3 2785 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 59 59 S 5 3070 4040 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 61 62 S 6 3453 4040 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Tue 64 65 S 7 4223 4040 0 Blue 6
1 PM Tue 65 66 S 8 4533 4040 0 Blue 7
2 PM Tue 67 68 SW 8 5805 4202 162 Blue 9
3 PM Tue 66 66 SW 9 4533 4040 0 Blue 7
4 PM Tue 67 66 SW 10 4533 4040 0 Blue 7
5 PM Tue 66 64 SW 10 3818 4040 0 Blue 5
6 PM Tue 61 59 SW 9 3070 4040 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 56 54 S 7 2785 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 53 51 S 6 2785 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 51 49 S 5 2785 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 50 48 SE 3 2785 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 49 47 SE 3 2785 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 47 45 SE 3 2785 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 47 45 SE 3 2785 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 46 44 SE 5 2785 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 47 45 SE 5 2785 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 46 44 SE 5 2785 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 45 43 SE 5 2785 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 46 44 SE 5 2785 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 45 43 SE 5 2785 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 47 45 SE 6 2785 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 50 48 SE 6 2785 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 53 52 SE 7 2785 4040 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 55 55 SE 8 2785 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 57 58 S 9 2921 4040 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 58 59 S 10 3070 4040 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 59 60 S 12 3176 4040 0 Blue 1
3 PM Wed 58 58 SW 12 2921 4040 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 59 58 SW 12 2921 4040 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 58 56 SW 12 2785 4040 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 54 52 SW 12 2785 4040 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 51 49 SW 10 2785 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 49 47 SW 10 2785 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 47 45 SW 9 2785 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 46 44 S 8 2785 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 46 44 SE 7 2785 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 45 43 S 6 2785 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 45 43 S 7 2785 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 44 42 S 7 2785 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 44 42 SE 6 2785 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 43 41 SE 6 2785 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 43 41 SE 5 2785 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 44 42 SE 5 2785 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 43 41 SE 5 2785 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 45 43 SE 2 2785 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 50 48 SE 2 2785 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 53 52 SE 2 2785 4040 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 55 57 SW 7 2785 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 57 60 SW 7 3176 4040 0 Blue 1
1 PM Thu 59 62 SW 7 3453 4040 0 Blue 3
2 PM Thu 60 63 SW 9 3636 4040 0 Blue 4
3 PM Thu 60 62 SW 9 3453 4040 0 Blue 3
4 PM Thu 60 60 SW 9 3176 4040 0 Blue 1
5 PM Thu 59 58 W 12 2921 4040 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 56 54 W 12 2785 4040 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 53 51 W 12 2785 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 51 49 NW 6 2785 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 49 47 NW 6 2785 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 48 46 NW 6 2785 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 47 45 N 12 2785 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 47 45 N 12 2785 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 47 45 N 12 2785 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 46 44 N 15 2785 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 46 44 N 15 2785 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 45 43 N 15 2785 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 45 43 N 16 2785 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 46 44 N 16 2785 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 45 43 N 16 2785 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 47 45 N 17 2785 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 52 51 N 17 2785 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 56 57 N 17 2785 4040 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 58 60 N 15 3176 4040 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Fri 61 64 N 15 3818 4040 0 Blue 5
1 PM Fri 62 65 N 15 4223 4040 0 Blue 6
2 PM Fri 64 67 N 12 4745 4040 0 Blue 8
3 PM Fri 64 66 N 12 4533 4040 0 Blue 7
4 PM Fri 64 64 N 12 3818 4040 0 Blue 5
5 PM Fri 63 62 N 12 3453 4040 0 Blue 3
6 PM Fri 58 56 N 12 2785 4040 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 54 52 N 12 2785 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 51 49 N 8 2785 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 49 47 N 8 2785 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 47 45 N 8 2785 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 46 44 N 12 2785 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 45 43 N 12 2785 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 45 43 N 12 2785 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 44 42 N 15 2785 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 44 42 N 15 2785 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 44 42 N 15 2785 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 43 41 N 16 2785 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 44 42 N 16 2785 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 44 42 N 16 2785 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 46 44 N 20 2785 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 52 51 N 20 2785 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 56 57 N 20 2785 4040 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 59 61 N 21 3282 4040 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Sat 62 65 N 21 4223 4040 0 Blue 6
1 PM Sat 64 67 N 21 4745 4040 0 Blue 8
2 PM Sat 66 69 NE 17 6904 4522 482 Blue 10
3 PM Sat 66 68 NE 17 5805 4202 162 Blue 9
4 PM Sat 66 66 NE 17 4533 4040 0 Blue 7
5 PM Sat 65 64 NE 16 3818 4040 0 Blue 5
6 PM Sat 60 58 NE 16 2921 4040 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 56 54 NE 16 2785 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 53 51 N 12 2785 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 51 49 N 12 2785 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 49 47 N 12 2785 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 48 46 NE 15 2785 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 47 45 NE 15 2785 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 47 45 NE 15 2785 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 46 44 N 18 2785 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 46 44 N 18 2785 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 46 44 N 18 2785 4040 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst