Detailed Predictions for: Marshall
Launch Altitude (f): 4040
LZ Altitude (f): 1700
Sounding

Station:

 KNKX

Date/Time:

 11 MAR 2010

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
7 AM Thu 41 33 N 17 2621 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 49 42 N 17 2730 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 54 48 N 17 4497 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 58 54 N 13 6776 5746 1706 Blue 6
11 AM Thu 60 57 N 13 7106 6762 2722 Blue 9
12 Noon Thu 62 59 N 13 7327 6981 2941 Blue 11
1 PM Thu 64 61 N 11 7597 7201 3161 Blue 13
2 PM Thu 65 61 N 11 7597 7201 3161 Blue 13
3 PM Thu 64 58 N 11 7217 6871 2831 Blue 10
4 PM Thu 62 55 N 6 6886 6098 2058 Blue 7
5 PM Thu 59 51 N 6 5779 4460 420 Blue 3
6 PM Thu 53 45 N 6 3543 4040 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 51 43 N 5 3002 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 49 41 N 5 2621 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 47 39 N 5 2621 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 46 38 NE 4 2621 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 46 38 NE 4 2621 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 46 38 NE 4 2621 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 45 37 NE 3 2621 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 45 37 NE 3 2621 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 43 35 NE 3 2621 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 42 34 NE 3 2621 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 43 35 NE 3 2621 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 43 35 NE 3 2621 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 46 38 E 3 2621 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 54 47 E 3 4078 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 58 52 E 3 6135 5031 991 Blue 4
10 AM Fri 62 57 S 8 7106 6762 2722 Blue 9
11 AM Fri 65 61 S 8 7597 7201 3161 Blue 13
12 Noon Fri 67 63 S 8 8257 7421 3381 Blue 15
1 PM Fri 69 65 SW 7 8903 7874 3834 Blue 17
2 PM Fri 70 65 SW 7 8903 7874 3834 Blue 17
3 PM Fri 69 63 SW 7 8257 7421 3381 Blue 15
4 PM Fri 67 59 SW 7 7327 6981 2941 Blue 11
5 PM Fri 63 55 SW 7 6886 6098 2058 Blue 7
6 PM Fri 57 49 SW 7 5056 4040 0 Blue 1
7 PM Fri 55 47 S 6 4078 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 53 45 S 6 3543 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 52 44 S 6 3273 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 50 42 SE 4 2730 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 50 42 SE 4 2730 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 50 42 SE 4 2730 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 49 41 SE 3 2621 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 49 41 SE 3 2621 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 47 39 SE 3 2621 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 46 38 SE 4 2621 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 47 39 SE 4 2621 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 46 38 SE 4 2621 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 48 40 SE 4 2621 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 53 45 SE 4 3543 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 55 48 SE 4 4497 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 58 53 S 9 6486 5391 1351 Blue 5
11 AM Sat 59 55 S 9 6886 6098 2058 Blue 7
12 Noon Sat 60 56 S 9 6996 6445 2405 Blue 8
1 PM Sat 61 56 S 9 6996 6445 2405 Blue 8
2 PM Sat 62 57 S 9 7106 6762 2722 Blue 9
3 PM Sat 61 54 S 9 6776 5746 1706 Blue 6
4 PM Sat 59 51 SW 8 5779 4460 420 Blue 3
5 PM Sat 56 48 SW 8 4497 4040 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 52 44 SW 8 3273 4040 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 50 42 SW 8 2730 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 48 40 SW 8 2621 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 47 39 SW 8 2621 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 46 38 N 5 2621 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 45 37 N 5 2621 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 45 37 N 5 2621 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 45 37 N 5 2621 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 44 36 N 5 2621 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 43 35 N 5 2621 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 42 34 N 14 2621 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 43 35 N 14 2621 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 43 35 N 14 2621 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 46 38 N 14 2621 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 54 47 N 14 4078 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 58 52 N 14 6135 5031 991 Blue 4
10 AM Sun 62 58 N 12 7217 6871 2831 Blue 10
11 AM Sun 65 62 N 12 7929 7311 3271 Blue 14
12 Noon Sun 67 64 N 12 8582 7546 3506 Blue 16
1 PM Sun 69 66 N 12 9077 8199 4159 Blue 18
2 PM Sun 70 66 N 12 9077 8199 4159 Blue 18
3 PM Sun 69 63 N 12 8257 7421 3381 Blue 15
4 PM Sun 67 60 N 10 7437 7091 3051 Blue 12
5 PM Sun 63 55 N 10 6886 6098 2058 Blue 7
6 PM Sun 57 49 N 10 5056 4040 0 Blue 1
7 PM Sun 55 47 N 10 4078 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 53 45 N 10 3543 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 52 44 N 10 3273 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 50 42 N 13 2730 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 50 42 N 13 2730 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 50 42 N 13 2730 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 49 41 N 13 2621 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 49 41 N 13 2621 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 47 39 N 13 2621 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 46 38 N 10 2621 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 47 39 N 10 2621 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 47 39 N 10 2621 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 50 42 N 10 2730 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 59 52 N 10 6135 5031 991 Blue 4
9 AM Mon 65 59 N 10 7327 6981 2941 Blue 11
10 AM Mon 69 65 N 8 8903 7874 3834 Blue 17
11 AM Mon 72 69 N 8 9497 9048 5008 Blue 21
12 Noon Mon 74 71 N 8 9777 9327 5287 Blue 23
1 PM Mon 77 74 N 8 10387 9744 5704 Blue 26
2 PM Mon 78 74 N 8 10387 9744 5704 Blue 26
3 PM Mon 77 71 N 8 9777 9327 5287 Blue 23
4 PM Mon 74 67 N 4 9217 8521 4481 Blue 19
5 PM Mon 70 62 N 4 7929 7311 3271 Blue 14
6 PM Mon 63 55 N 4 6886 6098 2058 Blue 7
7 PM Mon 61 53 N 4 6486 5391 1351 Blue 5
8 PM Mon 58 50 N 4 5420 4068 28 Blue 2
9 PM Mon 57 49 N 4 5056 4040 0 Blue 1
10 PM Mon 55 47 NE 7 4078 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 54 46 NE 7 3811 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 54 46 NE 7 3811 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 54 46 NE 7 3811 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 53 45 NE 7 3543 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 52 44 NE 7 3273 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 50 42 N 6 2730 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 51 43 N 6 3002 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 51 43 N 6 3002 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 54 46 N 6 3811 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 62 55 N 6 6886 6098 2058 Blue 7
9 AM Tue 67 62 N 6 7929 7311 3271 Blue 14
10 AM Tue 71 67 SE 7 9217 8521 4481 Blue 19
11 AM Tue 74 71 SE 7 9777 9327 5287 Blue 23
12 Noon Tue 76 73 SE 7 10104 9605 5565 Blue 25
1 PM Tue 78 75 SE 7 10669 9883 5843 Blue 27
2 PM Tue 79 74 SE 7 10387 9744 5704 Blue 26
3 PM Tue 78 72 SE 7 9916 9466 5426 Blue 24
4 PM Tue 75 68 S 5 9357 8840 4800 Blue 20
5 PM Tue 71 63 S 5 8257 7421 3381 Blue 15
6 PM Tue 64 56 S 5 6996 6445 2405 Blue 8
7 PM Tue 62 54 S 5 6776 5746 1706 Blue 6
8 PM Tue 59 51 S 5 5779 4460 420 Blue 3
9 PM Tue 58 50 S 5 5420 4068 28 Blue 2
10 PM Tue 56 48 NE 2 4497 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 55 47 NE 2 4078 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 55 47 NE 2 4078 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 55 47 NE 2 4078 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 54 46 NE 2 3811 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 53 45 NE 2 3543 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 51 43 NE 3 3002 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 52 44 NE 3 3273 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 52 44 NE 3 3273 4040 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst