Detailed Predictions for: Marshall
Launch Altitude (f): 4040
LZ Altitude (f): 1700
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

18 MAY 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 47 45 N 8 2536 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 47 45 N 7 2536 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 48 46 NE 5 2536 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 53 52 S 1 3157 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 56 57 S 2 4179 4040 0 Blue 5
10 AM Sat 58 61 S 3 5157 4392 352 Blue 9
11 AM Sat 60 62 S 6 5268 4774 734 Blue 10
12 Noon Sat 62 65 S 7 5927 5260 1220 Blue 13
1 PM Sat 64 67 S 8 6806 5521 1481 Blue 15
2 PM Sat 65 68 SW 10 6978 5884 1844 Blue 16
3 PM Sat 66 68 SW 12 6978 5884 1844 Blue 16
4 PM Sat 65 65 SW 12 5927 5260 1220 Blue 13
5 PM Sat 65 63 SW 13 5392 5039 999 Blue 11
6 PM Sat 63 61 SW 14 5157 4392 352 Blue 9
7 PM Sat 58 56 SW 13 4130 4040 0 Blue 4
8 PM Sat 55 53 SW 10 3575 4040 0 Blue 1
9 PM Sat 51 49 SW 9 2536 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 50 48 SW 8 2536 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 50 48 S 7 2536 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 49 47 S 7 2536 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 48 46 S 7 2536 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 48 46 S 7 2536 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 47 45 S 8 2536 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 47 45 S 8 2536 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 46 44 S 9 2536 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 46 44 S 9 2536 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 46 44 S 9 2536 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 49 47 SE 9 2536 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 50 48 SE 8 2536 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 51 50 SE 8 2658 4040 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 52 53 SE 7 3575 4040 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Sun 53 54 S 8 3963 4040 0 Blue 2
1 PM Sun 54 55 S 9 4080 4040 0 Blue 3
2 PM Sun 54 55 SW 10 4080 4040 0 Blue 3
3 PM Sun 54 54 SW 12 3963 4040 0 Blue 2
4 PM Sun 54 53 SW 13 3575 4040 0 Blue 1
5 PM Sun 54 52 SW 13 3157 4040 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 53 51 SW 13 2872 4040 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 51 49 SW 13 2536 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 49 47 SW 12 2536 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 47 45 SW 10 2536 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 46 44 S 8 2536 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 46 44 S 7 2536 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 45 43 S 6 2536 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 45 43 S 5 2536 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 45 43 S 3 2536 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 45 43 S 3 2536 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 44 42 SE 3 2536 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 44 42 SE 5 2536 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 44 42 S 5 2536 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 45 43 S 5 2536 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 49 48 S 5 2536 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 51 51 S 6 2872 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 52 53 S 6 3575 4040 0 Blue 1
11 AM Mon 54 58 S 7 4410 4078 38 Blue 6
12 Noon Mon 56 61 S 9 5157 4392 352 Blue 9
1 PM Mon 58 63 SW 12 5392 5039 999 Blue 11
2 PM Mon 58 62 SW 13 5268 4774 734 Blue 10
3 PM Mon 58 61 SW 14 5157 4392 352 Blue 9
4 PM Mon 58 59 SW 15 4797 4128 88 Blue 7
5 PM Mon 58 58 SW 15 4410 4078 38 Blue 6
6 PM Mon 57 55 SW 14 4080 4040 0 Blue 3
7 PM Mon 54 52 S 13 3157 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 51 49 S 10 2536 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 48 46 S 9 2536 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 48 46 S 8 2536 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 48 46 S 7 2536 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 47 45 S 6 2536 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 46 44 S 6 2536 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 46 44 S 6 2536 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 46 44 S 7 2536 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 46 44 SE 8 2536 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 45 43 SE 9 2536 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 45 43 SE 9 2536 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 45 43 SE 9 2536 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 48 46 SE 7 2536 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 49 48 SE 7 2536 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 49 49 SE 7 2536 4040 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 50 50 SW 9 2658 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 51 52 SW 9 3157 4040 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 52 53 SW 9 3575 4040 0 Blue 1
2 PM Tue 53 54 W 18 3963 4040 0 Blue 2
3 PM Tue 53 53 W 18 3575 4040 0 Blue 1
4 PM Tue 53 52 W 18 3157 4040 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 52 50 W 12 2658 4040 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 51 49 W 12 2536 4040 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 49 47 W 12 2536 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 47 45 E 5 2536 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 45 43 E 5 2536 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 45 43 E 5 2536 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 45 43 N 6 2536 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 44 42 N 6 2536 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 44 42 N 6 2536 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 44 42 NW 8 2536 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 44 42 NW 8 2536 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 43 41 NW 8 2536 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 43 41 N 6 2536 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 43 41 N 6 2536 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 44 42 N 6 2536 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 48 46 S 5 2536 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 51 50 S 5 2658 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 52 52 S 5 3157 4040 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 54 56 S 6 4130 4040 0 Blue 4
12 Noon Wed 56 59 S 6 4797 4128 88 Blue 7
1 PM Wed 58 61 S 6 5157 4392 352 Blue 9
2 PM Wed 60 62 SW 9 5268 4774 734 Blue 10
3 PM Wed 60 61 SW 9 5157 4392 352 Blue 9
4 PM Wed 59 59 SW 9 4797 4128 88 Blue 7
5 PM Wed 59 58 SW 13 4410 4078 38 Blue 6
6 PM Wed 58 56 SW 13 4130 4040 0 Blue 4
7 PM Wed 55 53 SW 13 3575 4040 0 Blue 1
8 PM Wed 53 51 S 7 2872 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 50 48 S 7 2536 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 50 48 S 7 2536 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 49 47 N 2 2536 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 49 47 N 2 2536 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 48 46 N 2 2536 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 48 46 N 5 2536 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 48 46 N 5 2536 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 48 46 N 5 2536 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 47 45 N 7 2536 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 47 45 N 7 2536 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 48 46 N 7 2536 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 53 52 N 13 3157 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 56 56 N 13 4130 4040 0 Blue 4
10 AM Thu 58 60 N 13 5046 4177 137 Blue 8
11 AM Thu 60 63 NE 6 5392 5039 999 Blue 11
12 Noon Thu 62 65 NE 6 5927 5260 1220 Blue 13
1 PM Thu 64 68 NE 6 6978 5884 1844 Blue 16
2 PM Thu 66 69 SW 9 7080 6322 2282 Blue 17
3 PM Thu 66 68 SW 9 6978 5884 1844 Blue 16
4 PM Thu 65 66 SW 9 6370 5381 1341 Blue 14
5 PM Thu 65 64 SW 14 5532 5149 1109 Blue 12
6 PM Thu 63 61 SW 14 5157 4392 352 Blue 9
7 PM Thu 60 58 SW 14 4410 4078 38 Blue 6
8 PM Thu 56 54 S 6 3963 4040 0 Blue 2
9 PM Thu 53 51 S 6 2872 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 53 51 S 6 2872 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 52 50 SE 2 2658 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 51 49 SE 2 2536 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 50 48 SE 2 2536 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 50 48 E 1 2536 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 50 48 E 1 2536 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 50 48 E 1 2536 4040 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst