Detailed Predictions for: Marshall
Launch Altitude (f): 4040
LZ Altitude (f): 1700
Sounding

Station:

 KNKX

Date/Time:

 3 JUL 2009

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
5 AM Fri 61 53 NE 2 2949 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 61 53 NE 2 2949 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 69 61 NE 2 2949 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 80 73 S 1 2949 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 85 80 S 1 3783 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 89 86 S 1 5045 4321 281 Blue 1
11 AM Fri 91 89 SW 7 8196 5026 986 Blue 4
12 Noon Fri 93 92 SW 7 11679 8029 3989 Blue 7
1 PM Fri 95 94 SW 7 13641 9872 5832 Blue 9
2 PM Fri 96 95 SW 9 13681 11401 7361 Blue 10
3 PM Fri 96 93 SW 9 12822 8997 4957 Blue 8
4 PM Fri 96 92 SW 9 11679 8029 3989 Blue 7
5 PM Fri 95 89 SW 9 8196 5026 986 Blue 4
6 PM Fri 91 84 SW 9 4510 4040 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 85 77 SW 9 3236 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 79 71 S 5 2949 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 74 66 S 5 2949 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 71 63 S 5 2949 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 68 60 SE 3 2949 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 66 58 SE 3 2949 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 63 55 SE 3 2949 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 62 54 SE 3 2949 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 62 54 SE 3 2949 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 62 54 SE 3 2949 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 61 53 SE 3 2949 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 61 53 SE 3 2949 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 69 61 SE 3 2949 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 79 72 S 3 2949 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 85 80 S 3 3783 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 88 85 S 3 4740 4140 100 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 91 89 SW 8 8196 5026 986 Blue 4
12 Noon Sat 92 91 SW 8 10060 5598 1558 Blue 6
1 PM Sat 94 94 SW 8 13641 9872 5832 Blue 9
2 PM Sat 95 94 SW 9 13641 9872 5832 Blue 9
3 PM Sat 95 93 SW 9 12822 8997 4957 Blue 8
4 PM Sat 95 91 SW 9 10060 5598 1558 Blue 6
5 PM Sat 94 88 SW 9 5622 4723 683 Blue 3
6 PM Sat 90 83 SW 9 4329 4040 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 84 76 SW 9 3053 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 78 70 S 5 2949 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 73 65 S 5 2949 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 70 62 S 5 2949 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 67 59 SE 3 2949 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 65 57 SE 3 2949 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 62 54 SE 3 2949 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 61 53 SE 3 2949 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 61 53 SE 3 2949 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 61 53 SE 3 2949 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 60 52 S 3 2949 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 60 52 S 3 2949 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 68 60 S 3 2949 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 79 72 S 3 2949 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 84 79 S 3 3601 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 88 85 S 3 4740 4140 100 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 90 88 SW 9 5622 4723 683 Blue 3
12 Noon Sun 92 92 SW 9 11679 8029 3989 Blue 7
1 PM Sun 94 94 SW 9 13641 9872 5832 Blue 9
2 PM Sun 95 94 SW 9 13641 9872 5832 Blue 9
3 PM Sun 95 93 SW 9 12822 8997 4957 Blue 8
4 PM Sun 95 91 SW 9 10060 5598 1558 Blue 6
5 PM Sun 94 88 SW 9 5622 4723 683 Blue 3
6 PM Sun 90 83 SW 9 4329 4040 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 84 76 SW 9 3053 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 77 69 SW 9 2949 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 72 64 SW 9 2949 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 69 61 SW 9 2949 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 66 58 SE 3 2949 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 64 56 SE 3 2949 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 61 53 SE 3 2949 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 60 52 SE 3 2949 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 61 53 SE 3 2949 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 60 52 SE 3 2949 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 59 51 SE 3 2949 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 59 51 SE 3 2949 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 66 58 SE 3 2949 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 76 69 SE 3 2949 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 82 77 SE 3 3236 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 85 82 SE 3 4147 4040 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 88 86 S 10 5045 4321 281 Blue 1
12 Noon Mon 89 89 S 10 8196 5026 986 Blue 4
1 PM Mon 91 91 S 10 10060 5598 1558 Blue 6
2 PM Mon 92 91 S 10 10060 5598 1558 Blue 6
3 PM Mon 92 90 S 10 9175 5313 1273 Blue 5
4 PM Mon 92 88 S 10 5622 4723 683 Blue 3
5 PM Mon 91 85 SW 8 4740 4140 100 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 87 80 SW 8 3783 4040 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 81 73 SW 8 2949 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 74 66 SW 8 2949 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 69 61 SW 8 2949 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 66 58 SW 8 2949 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 63 55 E 3 2949 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 61 53 E 3 2949 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 58 50 E 3 2949 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 57 49 E 3 2949 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 58 50 E 3 2949 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 57 49 E 3 2949 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 56 48 E 3 2949 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 56 48 E 3 2949 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 63 55 E 3 2949 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 73 66 E 3 2949 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 78 73 E 3 2949 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 81 78 E 3 3419 4040 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 84 83 S 10 4329 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 85 85 S 10 4740 4140 100 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 87 87 S 10 5334 4501 461 Blue 2
2 PM Tue 88 88 S 10 5622 4723 683 Blue 3
3 PM Tue 88 86 S 10 5045 4321 281 Blue 1
4 PM Tue 88 84 S 10 4510 4040 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 87 82 SW 10 4147 4040 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 83 76 SW 10 3053 4040 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 78 70 SW 10 2949 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 72 64 SW 10 2949 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 67 59 SW 10 2949 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 64 56 SW 10 2949 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 61 53 SE 3 2949 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 59 51 SE 3 2949 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 57 49 SE 3 2949 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 56 48 SE 3 2949 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 56 48 SE 3 2949 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 56 48 SE 3 2949 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 55 47 E 3 2949 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 55 47 E 3 2949 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 61 53 E 3 2949 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 70 63 E 3 2949 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 75 70 E 3 2949 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 77 74 E 3 2949 4040 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 80 79 S 11 3601 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 81 81 S 11 3965 4040 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 82 82 S 11 4147 4040 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 83 83 S 11 4329 4040 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 83 81 S 11 3965 4040 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 84 80 S 11 3783 4040 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 82 77 SW 9 3236 4040 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 79 72 SW 9 2949 4040 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 74 66 SW 9 2949 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 69 61 SW 9 2949 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 65 57 SW 9 2949 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 62 54 SW 9 2949 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 60 52 E 3 2949 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 58 50 E 3 2949 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 55 47 E 3 2949 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 55 47 E 3 2949 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 55 47 E 3 2949 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 55 47 E 3 2949 4040 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the Weather Channel website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the Weather Channel estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the Weather Channel website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst