Detailed Predictions for: Marshall
Launch Altitude (f): 4040
LZ Altitude (f): 1700
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

18 SEP 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Wed 58 56 E 2 2848 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 58 56 E 2 2848 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 60 58 E 2 2848 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 62 60 SE 2 2848 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 64 63 SE 2 2896 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 66 67 S 3 3272 4040 0 Blue 2
11 AM Wed 69 72 S 6 4318 4040 0 Blue 7
12 Noon Wed 72 76 S 6 5135 4566 526 Blue 11
1 PM Wed 75 79 S 7 5451 5128 1088 Blue 14
2 PM Wed 77 80 S 7 5723 5233 1193 Blue 15
3 PM Wed 77 79 SW 8 5451 5128 1088 Blue 14
4 PM Wed 77 78 SW 8 5346 5023 983 Blue 13
5 PM Wed 76 75 SW 9 5030 4307 267 Blue 10
6 PM Wed 74 72 SW 8 4318 4040 0 Blue 7
7 PM Wed 70 68 SW 6 3414 4040 0 Blue 3
8 PM Wed 66 64 S 2 2964 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 64 62 SE 2 2848 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 62 60 SE 2 2848 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 61 59 SE 2 2848 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 60 58 E 3 2848 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 59 57 SE 3 2848 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 58 56 E 3 2848 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 56 54 E 5 2848 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 55 53 E 5 2848 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 55 53 E 5 2848 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 55 53 SE 5 2848 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 56 54 SE 5 2848 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 58 56 SE 5 2848 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 60 59 SE 6 2848 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 62 63 S 6 2896 4040 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 64 67 S 7 3272 4040 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Thu 67 71 S 7 4056 4040 0 Blue 6
1 PM Thu 70 74 S 8 4839 4047 7 Blue 9
2 PM Thu 72 76 S 8 5135 4566 526 Blue 11
3 PM Thu 72 74 SW 8 4839 4047 7 Blue 9
4 PM Thu 72 73 SW 8 4579 4040 0 Blue 8
5 PM Thu 71 70 SW 8 3793 4040 0 Blue 5
6 PM Thu 68 66 SW 7 3130 4040 0 Blue 1
7 PM Thu 64 62 SW 5 2848 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 61 59 S 3 2848 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 59 57 S 2 2848 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 58 56 S 1 2848 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 58 56 SE 1 2848 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 58 56 E 2 2848 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 57 55 NE 2 2848 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 57 55 N 3 2848 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 57 55 N 6 2848 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 58 56 N 8 2848 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 58 56 N 10 2848 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 59 57 N 13 2848 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 60 58 N 15 2848 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 62 60 N 16 2848 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 65 65 N 17 3040 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 68 69 N 17 3556 4040 0 Blue 4
11 AM Fri 72 75 N 15 5030 4307 267 Blue 10
12 Noon Fri 76 80 N 13 5723 5233 1193 Blue 15
1 PM Fri 79 83 N 10 7132 5695 1655 Blue 18
2 PM Fri 81 85 N 7 8150 6540 2500 Blue 20
3 PM Fri 81 83 N 6 7132 5695 1655 Blue 18
4 PM Fri 81 82 NW 5 6602 5443 1403 Blue 17
5 PM Fri 79 78 W 5 5346 5023 983 Blue 13
6 PM Fri 75 73 W 3 4579 4040 0 Blue 8
7 PM Fri 70 68 S 2 3414 4040 0 Blue 3
8 PM Fri 66 64 SE 2 2964 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 63 61 SE 1 2848 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 62 60 E 1 2848 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 61 59 E 2 2848 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 61 59 E 3 2848 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 62 60 NE 6 2848 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 63 61 N 8 2848 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 64 62 N 9 2848 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 64 62 N 9 2848 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 65 63 N 9 2896 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 66 64 N 9 2964 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 67 65 N 9 3040 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 69 67 NE 8 3272 4040 0 Blue 2
9 AM Sat 72 71 NE 8 4056 4040 0 Blue 6
10 AM Sat 76 77 NE 8 5240 4824 784 Blue 12
11 AM Sat 79 82 N 3 6602 5443 1403 Blue 17
12 Noon Sat 82 86 N 3 8639 7064 3024 Blue 21
1 PM Sat 83 87 N 3 8938 7573 3533 Blue 22
2 PM Sat 84 88 S 5 9152 8069 4029 Blue 23
3 PM Sat 84 86 S 5 8639 7064 3024 Blue 21
4 PM Sat 85 86 S 5 8639 7064 3024 Blue 21
5 PM Sat 83 82 SW 6 6602 5443 1403 Blue 17
6 PM Sat 80 78 SW 6 5346 5023 983 Blue 13
7 PM Sat 77 75 SW 6 5030 4307 267 Blue 10
8 PM Sat 73 71 SE 2 4056 4040 0 Blue 6
9 PM Sat 70 68 SE 2 3414 4040 0 Blue 3
10 PM Sat 68 66 SE 2 3130 4040 0 Blue 1
11 PM Sat 67 65 E 2 3040 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 66 64 E 2 2964 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 66 64 E 2 2964 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 65 63 E 3 2896 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 64 62 E 3 2848 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 63 61 E 3 2848 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 63 61 E 5 2848 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 66 64 E 5 2964 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 70 68 E 5 3414 4040 0 Blue 3
8 AM Sun 74 72 E 3 4318 4040 0 Blue 7
9 AM Sun 77 76 E 3 5135 4566 526 Blue 11
10 AM Sun 80 81 E 3 6054 5338 1298 Blue 16
11 AM Sun 83 86 S 5 8639 7064 3024 Blue 21
12 Noon Sun 84 88 S 5 9152 8069 4029 Blue 23
1 PM Sun 85 89 S 5 9366 8553 4513 Blue 24
2 PM Sun 85 88 SW 10 9152 8069 4029 Blue 23
3 PM Sun 85 87 SW 10 8938 7573 3533 Blue 22
4 PM Sun 85 85 SW 10 8150 6540 2500 Blue 20
5 PM Sun 83 82 SW 12 6602 5443 1403 Blue 17
6 PM Sun 80 78 SW 12 5346 5023 983 Blue 13
7 PM Sun 76 74 SW 12 4839 4047 7 Blue 9
8 PM Sun 73 71 S 3 4056 4040 0 Blue 6
9 PM Sun 71 69 S 3 3556 4040 0 Blue 4
10 PM Sun 70 68 S 3 3414 4040 0 Blue 3
11 PM Sun 68 66 SE 3 3130 4040 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Mon 68 66 SE 3 3130 4040 0 Blue 1
1 AM Mon 66 64 SE 3 2964 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 65 63 SE 5 2896 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 64 62 SE 5 2848 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 63 61 SE 5 2848 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 62 60 SE 6 2848 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 61 59 SE 6 2848 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 61 59 SE 6 2848 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 62 60 SE 7 2848 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 64 63 SE 7 2896 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 66 67 SE 7 3272 4040 0 Blue 2
11 AM Mon 69 71 S 7 4056 4040 0 Blue 6
12 Noon Mon 71 74 S 7 4839 4047 7 Blue 9
1 PM Mon 74 77 S 7 5240 4824 784 Blue 12
2 PM Mon 75 77 S 8 5240 4824 784 Blue 12
3 PM Mon 77 78 S 8 5346 5023 983 Blue 13
4 PM Mon 77 77 S 8 5240 4824 784 Blue 12
5 PM Mon 77 76 SW 9 5135 4566 526 Blue 11
6 PM Mon 74 72 SW 9 4318 4040 0 Blue 7
7 PM Mon 69 67 SW 9 3272 4040 0 Blue 2
8 PM Mon 65 63 SW 3 2896 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 63 61 SW 3 2848 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 62 60 SW 3 2848 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 62 60 S 2 2848 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 62 60 S 2 2848 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 61 59 S 2 2848 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 60 58 SE 3 2848 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 59 57 SE 3 2848 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 59 57 SE 3 2848 4040 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst