Detailed Predictions for: Marshall
Launch Altitude (f): 4040
LZ Altitude (f): 1700
Sounding

Station:

 KNKX

Date/Time:

 3 SEP 2010

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
5 AM Fri 69 61 N 7 2572 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 70 62 N 7 2572 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 72 64 N 7 2572 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 76 68 N 5 2572 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 84 78 N 5 2572 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 93 89 N 5 4446 4040 0 Blue 4
11 AM Fri 101 98 S 3 13561 9808 5768 Blue 13
12 Noon Fri 105 104 S 3 14460 13797 9757 Blue 18
1 PM Fri 106 105 S 3 14662 13981 9941 Blue 19
2 PM Fri 106 105 SW 7 14662 13981 9941 Blue 19
3 PM Fri 106 103 SW 7 14257 13708 9668 Blue 17
4 PM Fri 105 100 SW 7 13740 13441 9401 Blue 14
5 PM Fri 101 95 SW 10 10302 5702 1662 Blue 10
6 PM Fri 94 86 SW 10 3712 4040 0 Blue 1
7 PM Fri 85 77 SW 10 2572 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 78 70 E 1 2572 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 74 66 E 1 2572 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 73 65 E 1 2572 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 73 65 NE 2 2572 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 72 64 NE 2 2572 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 72 64 NE 2 2572 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 72 64 N 6 2572 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 71 63 N 6 2572 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 70 62 N 6 2572 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 70 62 N 7 2572 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 71 63 N 7 2572 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 73 65 N 7 2572 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 77 69 N 2 2572 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 85 79 N 2 2572 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 94 90 N 2 4887 4040 0 Blue 5
11 AM Sat 102 99 SW 3 13650 13191 9151 Blue 14
12 Noon Sat 106 105 SW 3 14662 13981 9941 Blue 19
1 PM Sat 106 105 SW 3 14662 13981 9941 Blue 19
2 PM Sat 107 106 W 9 14864 14183 10143 Blue 20
3 PM Sat 107 104 W 9 14460 13797 9757 Blue 18
4 PM Sat 106 101 W 9 13850 13530 9490 Blue 15
5 PM Sat 102 96 W 13 13284 6216 2176 Blue 11
6 PM Sat 94 86 W 13 3712 4040 0 Blue 1
7 PM Sat 84 76 W 13 2572 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 75 67 S 6 2572 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 71 63 S 6 2572 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 70 62 S 6 2572 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 69 61 W 2 2572 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 68 60 W 2 2572 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 68 60 W 2 2572 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 67 59 SW 1 2572 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 66 58 SW 1 2572 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 65 57 SW 1 2572 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 65 57 S 3 2572 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 67 59 S 3 2572 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 70 62 S 3 2572 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 74 66 S 3 2572 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 80 74 S 3 2572 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 87 83 S 3 2889 4040 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 92 89 S 9 4446 4040 0 Blue 4
12 Noon Sun 95 94 S 9 6939 5286 1246 Blue 9
1 PM Sun 96 95 S 9 10302 5702 1662 Blue 10
2 PM Sun 96 95 S 9 10302 5702 1662 Blue 10
3 PM Sun 96 93 S 9 6283 4861 821 Blue 8
4 PM Sun 94 89 S 9 4446 4040 0 Blue 4
5 PM Sun 89 83 SW 9 2889 4040 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 88 80 SW 9 2572 4040 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 79 71 SW 9 2572 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 71 63 SW 9 2572 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 66 58 SW 9 2572 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 63 55 SW 9 2572 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 61 53 SE 3 2572 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 60 52 SE 3 2572 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 59 51 SE 3 2572 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 58 50 SE 3 2572 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 59 51 SE 3 2572 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 59 51 SE 3 2572 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 59 51 E 2 2572 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 57 49 E 2 2572 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 59 51 E 2 2572 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 67 59 E 2 2572 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 75 69 E 2 2572 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 79 75 E 2 2572 4040 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 82 79 S 13 2572 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 84 83 S 13 2889 4040 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 87 86 S 13 3712 4040 0 Blue 1
2 PM Mon 88 87 S 13 3809 4040 0 Blue 2
3 PM Mon 87 84 S 13 3209 4040 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 87 82 S 13 2572 4040 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 85 79 SW 12 2572 4040 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 80 72 SW 12 2572 4040 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 72 64 SW 12 2572 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 66 58 SW 12 2572 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 61 53 SW 12 2572 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 58 50 SW 12 2572 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 57 49 E 5 2572 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 55 47 E 5 2572 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 55 47 E 5 2572 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 54 46 E 5 2572 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 54 46 E 5 2572 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 54 46 E 5 2572 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 55 47 E 3 2572 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 53 45 E 3 2572 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 55 47 E 3 2572 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 63 55 E 3 2572 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 71 65 E 3 2572 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 75 71 E 3 2572 4040 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 78 75 S 10 2572 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 80 79 S 10 2572 4040 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 83 82 S 10 2572 4040 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 84 83 S 10 2889 4040 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 83 80 S 10 2572 4040 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 83 78 S 10 2572 4040 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 81 75 S 12 2572 4040 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 77 69 S 12 2572 4040 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 70 62 S 12 2572 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 64 56 S 12 2572 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 60 52 S 12 2572 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 57 49 S 12 2572 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 56 48 E 3 2572 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 55 47 E 3 2572 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 54 46 E 3 2572 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 54 46 E 3 2572 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 54 46 E 3 2572 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 54 46 E 3 2572 4040 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 54 46 E 2 2572 4040 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 53 45 E 2 2572 4040 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 55 47 E 2 2572 4040 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 62 54 E 2 2572 4040 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 68 61 E 2 2572 4040 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 72 67 E 2 2572 4040 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 75 72 S 10 2572 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 77 76 S 10 2572 4040 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 79 78 S 10 2572 4040 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 80 79 S 10 2572 4040 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 79 76 S 10 2572 4040 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 79 74 S 10 2572 4040 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 77 71 SW 13 2572 4040 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 73 65 SW 13 2572 4040 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 67 59 SW 13 2572 4040 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 61 53 SW 13 2572 4040 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 57 49 SW 13 2572 4040 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 54 46 SW 13 2572 4040 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 53 45 E 2 2572 4040 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 52 44 E 2 2572 4040 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 51 43 E 2 2572 4040 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 51 43 E 2 2572 4040 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 51 43 E 2 2572 4040 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 51 43 E 2 2572 4040 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst