Detailed Predictions for: Henninger Flats
Launch Altitude (f): 3427
LZ Altitude (f): 1033
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

20 JUL 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Fri 71 71 S 2 2363 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 71 71 S 2 2363 3427 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 71 71 S 2 2363 3427 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 72 73 S 5 2546 3427 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 74 76 S 5 3051 3427 0 Blue 3
10 AM Fri 76 80 S 5 4014 3427 0 Blue 7
11 AM Fri 79 84 S 8 4756 4269 842 Blue 11
12 Noon Fri 81 87 S 8 5697 4743 1316 Blue 13
1 PM Fri 83 90 S 8 6520 5667 2240 Blue 16
2 PM Fri 85 91 S 8 6732 5941 2514 Blue 17
3 PM Fri 85 90 S 8 6520 5667 2240 Blue 16
4 PM Fri 84 88 S 8 5973 5115 1688 Blue 14
5 PM Fri 82 84 S 8 4756 4269 842 Blue 11
6 PM Fri 80 81 S 8 4279 3433 6 Blue 8
7 PM Fri 77 77 S 8 3233 3427 0 Blue 4
8 PM Fri 75 75 S 5 2869 3427 0 Blue 2
9 PM Fri 73 73 S 5 2546 3427 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 72 72 S 5 2455 3427 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 71 71 S 2 2363 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 71 71 S 2 2363 3427 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 71 71 S 2 2363 3427 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 70 70 S 2 2272 3427 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 70 70 S 2 2272 3427 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 70 70 S 2 2272 3427 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 70 70 SE 1 2272 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 70 70 SE 1 2272 3427 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 70 70 SE 1 2272 3427 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 71 72 S 2 2455 3427 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 74 76 S 2 3051 3427 0 Blue 3
10 AM Sat 75 79 S 2 3730 3427 0 Blue 6
11 AM Sat 78 83 SW 7 4597 3999 572 Blue 10
12 Noon Sat 81 88 SW 7 5973 5115 1688 Blue 14
1 PM Sat 83 90 SW 7 6520 5667 2240 Blue 16
2 PM Sat 85 92 S 7 6875 6213 2786 Blue 18
3 PM Sat 85 90 S 7 6520 5667 2240 Blue 16
4 PM Sat 84 88 S 7 5973 5115 1688 Blue 14
5 PM Sat 82 84 SW 8 4756 4269 842 Blue 11
6 PM Sat 80 81 SW 8 4279 3433 6 Blue 8
7 PM Sat 78 78 SW 8 3443 3427 0 Blue 5
8 PM Sat 75 75 SW 8 2869 3427 0 Blue 2
9 PM Sat 74 74 SW 8 2687 3427 0 Blue 1
10 PM Sat 73 73 SW 8 2546 3427 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 72 72 S 1 2455 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 72 72 S 1 2455 3427 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 72 72 S 1 2455 3427 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 71 71 S 1 2363 3427 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 71 71 S 1 2363 3427 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 71 71 S 1 2363 3427 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 71 71 S 5 2363 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 71 71 S 5 2363 3427 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 71 71 S 5 2363 3427 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 73 74 S 5 2687 3427 0 Blue 1
9 AM Sun 76 78 S 5 3443 3427 0 Blue 5
10 AM Sun 77 81 S 5 4279 3433 6 Blue 8
11 AM Sun 82 88 SW 7 5973 5115 1688 Blue 14
12 Noon Sun 85 92 SW 7 6875 6213 2786 Blue 18
1 PM Sun 87 95 SW 7 8585 6855 3428 Blue 21
2 PM Sun 90 97 SW 7 9257 7839 4412 Blue 23
3 PM Sun 90 96 SW 7 8923 7179 3752 Blue 22
4 PM Sun 89 93 SW 7 7287 6484 3057 Blue 19
5 PM Sun 87 89 SW 8 6247 5392 1965 Blue 15
6 PM Sun 84 85 SW 8 5140 4427 1000 Blue 11
7 PM Sun 82 82 SW 8 4438 3716 289 Blue 9
8 PM Sun 79 79 SW 8 3730 3427 0 Blue 6
9 PM Sun 77 77 SW 8 3233 3427 0 Blue 4
10 PM Sun 76 76 SW 8 3051 3427 0 Blue 3
11 PM Sun 76 76 SW 5 3051 3427 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Mon 75 75 SW 5 2869 3427 0 Blue 2
1 AM Mon 75 75 SW 5 2869 3427 0 Blue 2
2 AM Mon 74 74 SW 5 2687 3427 0 Blue 1
3 AM Mon 74 74 SW 5 2687 3427 0 Blue 1
4 AM Mon 74 74 SW 5 2687 3427 0 Blue 1
5 AM Mon 74 74 N 2 2687 3427 0 Blue 1
6 AM Mon 74 74 N 2 2687 3427 0 Blue 1
7 AM Mon 75 75 N 2 2869 3427 0 Blue 2
8 AM Mon 76 77 N 2 3233 3427 0 Blue 4
9 AM Mon 79 81 N 2 4279 3433 6 Blue 8
10 AM Mon 82 86 N 2 5419 4585 1158 Blue 12
11 AM Mon 87 93 SW 8 7287 6484 3057 Blue 19
12 Noon Mon 91 99 SW 8 9920 8852 5425 Blue 25
1 PM Mon 94 102 SW 8 10950 9836 6409 Blue 28
2 PM Mon 96 104 SW 8 11797 10512 7085 White 30
3 PM Mon 97 103 SW 8 11591 10174 6747 White 29
4 PM Mon 96 100 SW 8 10261 9183 5756 Blue 26
5 PM Mon 93 96 SW 7 8923 7179 3752 Blue 22
6 PM Mon 90 91 SW 7 6732 5941 2514 Blue 17
7 PM Mon 86 86 SW 7 5419 4585 1158 Blue 12
8 PM Mon 83 83 SW 7 4597 3999 572 Blue 10
9 PM Mon 81 81 SW 7 4279 3433 6 Blue 8
10 PM Mon 80 80 SW 7 4014 3427 0 Blue 7
11 PM Mon 79 79 SW 3 3730 3427 0 Blue 6
12 Midnight Tue 78 78 SW 3 3443 3427 0 Blue 5
1 AM Tue 78 78 SW 3 3443 3427 0 Blue 5
2 AM Tue 77 77 SW 3 3233 3427 0 Blue 4
3 AM Tue 77 77 SW 3 3233 3427 0 Blue 4
4 AM Tue 77 77 SW 3 3233 3427 0 Blue 4
5 AM Tue 77 77 N 5 3233 3427 0 Blue 4
6 AM Tue 77 77 N 5 3233 3427 0 Blue 4
7 AM Tue 78 78 N 5 3443 3427 0 Blue 5
8 AM Tue 79 80 N 5 4014 3427 0 Blue 7
9 AM Tue 82 85 N 5 5140 4427 1000 Blue 11
10 AM Tue 84 88 N 5 5973 5115 1688 Blue 14
11 AM Tue 89 95 SW 8 8585 6855 3428 Blue 21
12 Noon Tue 92 100 SW 8 10261 9183 5756 Blue 26
1 PM Tue 95 103 SW 8 11591 10174 6747 White 29
2 PM Tue 97 105 SW 8 12004 10854 7427 White 31
3 PM Tue 98 104 SW 8 11797 10512 7085 White 30
4 PM Tue 97 101 SW 8 10604 9511 6084 Blue 27
5 PM Tue 94 97 SW 8 9257 7839 4412 Blue 23
6 PM Tue 91 92 SW 8 6875 6213 2786 Blue 18
7 PM Tue 87 87 SW 8 5697 4743 1316 Blue 13
8 PM Tue 83 83 SW 8 4597 3999 572 Blue 10
9 PM Tue 81 81 SW 8 4279 3433 6 Blue 8
10 PM Tue 80 80 SW 8 4014 3427 0 Blue 7
11 PM Tue 79 79 E 2 3730 3427 0 Blue 6
12 Midnight Wed 78 78 E 2 3443 3427 0 Blue 5
1 AM Wed 78 78 E 2 3443 3427 0 Blue 5
2 AM Wed 77 77 E 2 3233 3427 0 Blue 4
3 AM Wed 77 77 E 2 3233 3427 0 Blue 4
4 AM Wed 77 77 E 2 3233 3427 0 Blue 4
5 AM Wed 77 77 N 3 3233 3427 0 Blue 4
6 AM Wed 77 77 N 3 3233 3427 0 Blue 4
7 AM Wed 78 78 N 3 3443 3427 0 Blue 5
8 AM Wed 79 80 N 3 4014 3427 0 Blue 7
9 AM Wed 82 85 N 3 5140 4427 1000 Blue 11
10 AM Wed 84 88 N 3 5973 5115 1688 Blue 14
11 AM Wed 89 95 SW 9 8585 6855 3428 Blue 21
12 Noon Wed 93 101 SW 9 10604 9511 6084 Blue 27
1 PM Wed 96 104 SW 9 11797 10512 7085 White 30
2 PM Wed 98 106 SW 9 12210 11193 7766 White 32
3 PM Wed 99 105 SW 9 12004 10854 7427 White 31
4 PM Wed 98 102 SW 9 10950 9836 6409 Blue 28
5 PM Wed 95 98 SW 9 9588 8469 5042 Blue 24
6 PM Wed 91 92 SW 9 6875 6213 2786 Blue 18
7 PM Wed 87 87 SW 9 5697 4743 1316 Blue 13
8 PM Wed 83 83 SW 9 4597 3999 572 Blue 10
9 PM Wed 81 81 SW 9 4279 3433 6 Blue 8
10 PM Wed 79 79 SW 9 3730 3427 0 Blue 6
11 PM Wed 78 78 S 3 3443 3427 0 Blue 5
12 Midnight Thu 77 77 S 3 3233 3427 0 Blue 4
1 AM Thu 77 77 S 3 3233 3427 0 Blue 4
2 AM Thu 76 76 S 3 3051 3427 0 Blue 3
3 AM Thu 76 76 S 3 3051 3427 0 Blue 3
4 AM Thu 76 76 S 3 3051 3427 0 Blue 3

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst