Detailed Predictions for: Henninger Flats
Launch Altitude (f): 3427
LZ Altitude (f): 1033
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

21 SEP 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Fri 66 66 SE 2 2142 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 66 66 SE 2 2142 3427 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 65 65 SE 2 2142 3427 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 68 68 SE 2 2142 3427 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 71 72 SE 2 2142 3427 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 74 77 SE 2 2891 3427 0 Blue 1
11 AM Fri 78 83 S 8 3613 3427 0 Blue 7
12 Noon Fri 80 86 S 8 4245 3604 177 Blue 10
1 PM Fri 81 87 S 8 4517 3814 387 Blue 11
2 PM Fri 83 88 S 8 4924 4023 596 Blue 12
3 PM Fri 84 88 S 8 4924 4023 596 Blue 12
4 PM Fri 82 85 S 8 4035 3431 4 Blue 9
5 PM Fri 81 82 S 7 3436 3427 0 Blue 6
6 PM Fri 79 79 S 7 3095 3427 0 Blue 3
7 PM Fri 75 75 S 7 2213 3427 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 73 73 SW 3 2142 3427 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 72 72 SW 3 2142 3427 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 71 71 SW 3 2142 3427 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 70 70 SE 2 2142 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 69 69 SE 2 2142 3427 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 69 69 SE 2 2142 3427 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 69 69 SE 2 2142 3427 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 68 68 SE 2 2142 3427 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 68 68 SE 2 2142 3427 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 67 67 SE 1 2142 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 67 67 SE 1 2142 3427 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 66 66 SE 1 2142 3427 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 69 69 SE 1 2142 3427 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 72 73 SE 1 2142 3427 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 75 78 SE 1 3013 3427 0 Blue 2
11 AM Sat 79 84 SW 9 3824 3427 0 Blue 8
12 Noon Sat 81 87 SW 9 4517 3814 387 Blue 11
1 PM Sat 83 89 SW 9 5537 4232 805 Blue 13
2 PM Sat 85 90 SW 9 6268 4488 1061 Blue 14
3 PM Sat 86 90 SW 9 6268 4488 1061 Blue 14
4 PM Sat 84 87 SW 9 4517 3814 387 Blue 11
5 PM Sat 83 84 SW 7 3824 3427 0 Blue 8
6 PM Sat 80 80 SW 7 3181 3427 0 Blue 4
7 PM Sat 76 76 SW 7 2343 3427 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 75 75 SW 7 2213 3427 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 73 73 SW 7 2142 3427 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 72 72 SW 7 2142 3427 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 71 71 S 1 2142 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 70 70 S 1 2142 3427 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 71 71 S 1 2142 3427 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 70 70 S 1 2142 3427 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 69 69 S 1 2142 3427 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 69 69 S 1 2142 3427 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 68 68 SE 2 2142 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 68 68 SE 2 2142 3427 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 67 67 SE 2 2142 3427 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 70 70 SE 2 2142 3427 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 71 72 SE 2 2142 3427 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 74 77 SE 2 2891 3427 0 Blue 1
11 AM Sun 77 82 SW 9 3436 3427 0 Blue 6
12 Noon Sun 79 85 SW 9 4035 3431 4 Blue 9
1 PM Sun 80 86 SW 9 4245 3604 177 Blue 10
2 PM Sun 81 86 SW 9 4245 3604 177 Blue 10
3 PM Sun 82 86 SW 9 4245 3604 177 Blue 10
4 PM Sun 81 84 SW 9 3824 3427 0 Blue 8
5 PM Sun 80 81 SW 9 3309 3427 0 Blue 5
6 PM Sun 77 77 SW 9 2891 3427 0 Blue 1
7 PM Sun 74 74 SW 9 2144 3427 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 73 73 SW 9 2142 3427 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 71 71 SW 9 2142 3427 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 70 70 SW 9 2142 3427 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 69 69 S 5 2142 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 68 68 S 5 2142 3427 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 69 69 S 5 2142 3427 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 68 68 S 5 2142 3427 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 68 68 S 5 2142 3427 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 67 67 S 5 2142 3427 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 67 67 S 3 2142 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 67 67 S 3 2142 3427 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 66 66 S 3 2142 3427 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 69 69 S 3 2142 3427 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 71 72 S 3 2142 3427 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 73 76 S 3 2343 3427 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 77 82 SW 7 3436 3427 0 Blue 6
12 Noon Mon 78 84 SW 7 3824 3427 0 Blue 8
1 PM Mon 79 85 SW 7 4035 3431 4 Blue 9
2 PM Mon 81 86 SW 7 4245 3604 177 Blue 10
3 PM Mon 82 86 SW 7 4245 3604 177 Blue 10
4 PM Mon 80 83 SW 7 3613 3427 0 Blue 7
5 PM Mon 79 80 SW 7 3181 3427 0 Blue 4
6 PM Mon 77 77 SW 7 2891 3427 0 Blue 1
7 PM Mon 73 73 SW 7 2142 3427 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 71 71 SW 7 2142 3427 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 70 70 SW 7 2142 3427 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 69 69 SW 7 2142 3427 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 68 68 SE 2 2142 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 67 67 SE 2 2142 3427 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 67 67 SE 2 2142 3427 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 67 67 SE 2 2142 3427 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 66 66 SE 2 2142 3427 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 66 66 SE 2 2142 3427 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 65 65 NE 5 2142 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 65 65 NE 5 2142 3427 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 64 64 NE 5 2142 3427 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 68 68 NE 5 2142 3427 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 70 71 NE 5 2142 3427 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 74 77 NE 5 2891 3427 0 Blue 1
11 AM Tue 78 83 SW 6 3613 3427 0 Blue 7
12 Noon Tue 80 86 SW 6 4245 3604 177 Blue 10
1 PM Tue 82 88 SW 6 4924 4023 596 Blue 12
2 PM Tue 84 89 SW 6 5537 4232 805 Blue 13
3 PM Tue 85 89 SW 6 5537 4232 805 Blue 13
4 PM Tue 83 86 SW 6 4245 3604 177 Blue 10
5 PM Tue 82 83 SW 6 3613 3427 0 Blue 7
6 PM Tue 79 79 SW 6 3095 3427 0 Blue 3
7 PM Tue 75 75 SW 6 2213 3427 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 74 74 SW 6 2144 3427 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 72 72 SW 6 2142 3427 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 71 71 SW 6 2142 3427 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 70 70 NE 3 2142 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 69 69 NE 3 2142 3427 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 70 70 NE 3 2142 3427 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 69 69 NE 3 2142 3427 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 68 68 NE 3 2142 3427 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 68 68 NE 3 2142 3427 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 67 67 NE 5 2142 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 67 67 NE 5 2142 3427 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 66 66 NE 5 2142 3427 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 69 69 NE 5 2142 3427 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 71 72 NE 5 2142 3427 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 74 77 NE 5 2891 3427 0 Blue 1
11 AM Wed 78 83 SW 7 3613 3427 0 Blue 7
12 Noon Wed 80 86 SW 7 4245 3604 177 Blue 10
1 PM Wed 81 87 SW 7 4517 3814 387 Blue 11
2 PM Wed 83 88 SW 7 4924 4023 596 Blue 12
3 PM Wed 84 88 SW 7 4924 4023 596 Blue 12
4 PM Wed 82 85 SW 7 4035 3431 4 Blue 9
5 PM Wed 81 82 SW 7 3436 3427 0 Blue 6
6 PM Wed 79 79 SW 7 3095 3427 0 Blue 3
7 PM Wed 75 75 SW 7 2213 3427 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 73 73 SW 7 2142 3427 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 72 72 SW 7 2142 3427 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 71 71 SW 7 2142 3427 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 70 70 S 3 2142 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 69 69 S 3 2142 3427 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 69 69 S 3 2142 3427 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 69 69 S 3 2142 3427 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 68 68 S 3 2142 3427 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 68 68 S 3 2142 3427 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst