Detailed Predictions for: Henninger Flats
Launch Altitude (f): 3427
LZ Altitude (f): 1033
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

17 NOV 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Sat 54 54 E 2 2087 3427 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 53 53 E 2 2087 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 53 53 E 2 2087 3427 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 54 54 E 2 2087 3427 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 60 60 E 2 2321 3427 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 61 61 E 2 2626 3427 0 Blue 1
10 AM Sat 63 64 S 2 3259 3427 0 Blue 4
11 AM Sat 66 68 S 2 4468 3572 145 Blue 8
12 Noon Sat 68 70 S 2 5379 4099 672 Blue 10
1 PM Sat 69 70 S 8 5379 4099 672 Blue 10
2 PM Sat 70 71 S 8 5835 4436 1009 Blue 11
3 PM Sat 69 69 S 8 4914 3824 397 Blue 9
4 PM Sat 66 66 S 7 3839 3427 0 Blue 6
5 PM Sat 60 60 S 7 2321 3427 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 60 60 S 7 2321 3427 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 60 60 S 3 2321 3427 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 59 59 S 3 2102 3427 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 59 59 S 3 2102 3427 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 58 58 E 2 2087 3427 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 58 58 E 2 2087 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 57 57 E 2 2087 3427 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 56 56 NE 5 2087 3427 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 56 56 NE 5 2087 3427 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 54 54 NE 5 2087 3427 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 54 54 NE 3 2087 3427 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 53 53 NE 3 2087 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 53 53 NE 3 2087 3427 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 54 54 NE 5 2087 3427 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 61 61 NE 5 2626 3427 0 Blue 1
9 AM Sun 62 62 NE 5 2818 3427 0 Blue 2
10 AM Sun 64 65 S 2 3582 3427 0 Blue 5
11 AM Sun 67 68 S 2 4468 3572 145 Blue 8
12 Noon Sun 69 71 S 2 5835 4436 1009 Blue 11
1 PM Sun 71 72 S 2 6283 4877 1450 Blue 12
2 PM Sun 72 73 S 2 6721 5333 1906 Blue 13
3 PM Sun 71 71 S 2 5835 4436 1009 Blue 11
4 PM Sun 67 67 S 3 4115 3427 0 Blue 7
5 PM Sun 61 61 S 3 2626 3427 0 Blue 1
6 PM Sun 60 60 S 3 2321 3427 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 61 61 S 3 2626 3427 0 Blue 1
8 PM Sun 60 60 S 3 2321 3427 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 60 60 S 3 2321 3427 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 59 59 W 7 2102 3427 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 58 58 W 7 2087 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 58 58 W 7 2087 3427 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 56 56 W 7 2087 3427 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 56 56 W 7 2087 3427 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 54 54 W 7 2087 3427 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 54 54 E 10 2087 3427 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 53 53 E 10 2087 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 53 53 E 10 2087 3427 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 54 54 E 10 2087 3427 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 60 60 E 10 2321 3427 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 61 61 E 10 2626 3427 0 Blue 1
10 AM Mon 63 64 E 5 3259 3427 0 Blue 4
11 AM Mon 66 67 E 5 4115 3427 0 Blue 7
12 Noon Mon 68 69 E 5 4914 3824 397 Blue 9
1 PM Mon 69 70 E 5 5379 4099 672 Blue 10
2 PM Mon 70 71 E 5 5835 4436 1009 Blue 11
3 PM Mon 69 69 E 5 4914 3824 397 Blue 9
4 PM Mon 66 66 S 2 3839 3427 0 Blue 6
5 PM Mon 61 61 S 2 2626 3427 0 Blue 1
6 PM Mon 61 61 S 2 2626 3427 0 Blue 1
7 PM Mon 61 61 S 2 2626 3427 0 Blue 1
8 PM Mon 60 60 S 2 2321 3427 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 61 61 S 2 2626 3427 0 Blue 1
10 PM Mon 60 60 E 5 2321 3427 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 59 59 E 5 2102 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 59 59 E 5 2102 3427 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 58 58 E 5 2087 3427 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 57 57 E 5 2087 3427 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 56 56 E 5 2087 3427 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 56 56 E 3 2087 3427 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 55 55 E 3 2087 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 55 55 E 3 2087 3427 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 55 55 E 3 2087 3427 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 60 60 E 3 2321 3427 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 61 61 E 3 2626 3427 0 Blue 1
10 AM Tue 62 63 S 6 3027 3427 0 Blue 3
11 AM Tue 64 66 S 6 3839 3427 0 Blue 6
12 Noon Tue 65 67 S 6 4115 3427 0 Blue 7
1 PM Tue 66 68 S 6 4468 3572 145 Blue 8
2 PM Tue 67 68 S 6 4468 3572 145 Blue 8
3 PM Tue 66 66 S 6 3839 3427 0 Blue 6
4 PM Tue 63 63 S 6 3027 3427 0 Blue 3
5 PM Tue 59 59 S 6 2102 3427 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 58 58 S 6 2087 3427 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 59 59 S 6 2102 3427 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 58 58 S 6 2087 3427 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 58 58 S 6 2087 3427 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 57 57 SE 6 2087 3427 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 57 57 SE 6 2087 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 56 56 SE 6 2087 3427 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 55 55 SE 6 2087 3427 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 55 55 SE 6 2087 3427 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 54 54 SE 6 2087 3427 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 54 54 E 6 2087 3427 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 53 53 E 6 2087 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 53 53 E 6 2087 3427 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 53 53 E 6 2087 3427 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 57 57 E 6 2087 3427 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 58 58 E 6 2087 3427 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 59 59 S 8 2102 3427 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 61 61 S 8 2626 3427 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Wed 63 63 S 8 3027 3427 0 Blue 3
1 PM Wed 63 63 S 8 3027 3427 0 Blue 3
2 PM Wed 64 64 S 8 3259 3427 0 Blue 4
3 PM Wed 63 63 S 8 3027 3427 0 Blue 3
4 PM Wed 60 60 S 9 2321 3427 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 55 55 S 9 2087 3427 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 55 55 S 9 2087 3427 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 55 55 S 9 2087 3427 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 54 54 S 9 2087 3427 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 55 55 S 9 2087 3427 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 54 54 S 9 2087 3427 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 53 53 S 9 2087 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 53 53 S 9 2087 3427 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 52 52 S 9 2087 3427 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 51 51 S 9 2087 3427 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 50 50 S 9 2087 3427 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 50 50 SE 6 2087 3427 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 49 49 SE 6 2087 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 49 49 SE 6 2087 3427 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 49 49 SE 6 2087 3427 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 54 54 SE 6 2087 3427 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 55 55 SE 6 2087 3427 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 57 58 SW 8 2087 3427 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 59 60 SW 8 2321 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 60 61 SW 8 2626 3427 0 Blue 1
1 PM Thu 61 62 SW 8 2818 3427 0 Blue 2
2 PM Thu 62 62 SW 8 2818 3427 0 Blue 2
3 PM Thu 61 61 SW 8 2626 3427 0 Blue 1
4 PM Thu 59 59 SW 8 2102 3427 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 54 54 SW 8 2087 3427 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 54 54 SW 8 2087 3427 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 54 54 SW 8 2087 3427 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 54 54 SW 8 2087 3427 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 54 54 SW 8 2087 3427 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 53 53 NE 5 2087 3427 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 53 53 NE 5 2087 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 52 52 NE 5 2087 3427 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 51 51 NE 5 2087 3427 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 51 51 NE 5 2087 3427 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 50 50 NE 5 2087 3427 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst