Detailed Predictions for: Henninger Flats
Launch Altitude (f): 3427
LZ Altitude (f): 1033
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

21 JUL 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 64 64 E 2 2188 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 66 66 E 2 2228 3427 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 65 65 E 2 2208 3427 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 70 71 SE 1 2455 3427 0 Blue 4
9 AM Sun 72 75 SE 1 2823 3427 0 Blue 8
10 AM Sun 74 79 SE 1 3631 3427 0 Blue 12
11 AM Sun 78 85 S 8 4468 4065 638 Blue 18
12 Noon Sun 80 88 S 8 4862 4458 1031 Blue 21
1 PM Sun 82 90 S 8 5124 4721 1294 Blue 23
2 PM Sun 84 92 S 9 5385 4982 1555 Blue 25
3 PM Sun 85 92 S 9 5385 4982 1555 Blue 25
4 PM Sun 84 89 S 9 4993 4589 1162 Blue 22
5 PM Sun 82 85 S 8 4468 4065 638 Blue 18
6 PM Sun 80 81 S 8 3941 3427 0 Blue 14
7 PM Sun 78 78 S 8 3369 3427 0 Blue 11
8 PM Sun 75 75 S 5 2823 3427 0 Blue 8
9 PM Sun 73 73 S 5 2638 3427 0 Blue 6
10 PM Sun 72 72 S 5 2532 3427 0 Blue 5
11 PM Sun 72 72 E 2 2532 3427 0 Blue 5
12 Midnight Mon 71 71 E 2 2455 3427 0 Blue 4
1 AM Mon 71 71 E 2 2455 3427 0 Blue 4
2 AM Mon 70 70 E 3 2403 3427 0 Blue 3
3 AM Mon 69 69 E 3 2352 3427 0 Blue 2
4 AM Mon 69 69 E 3 2352 3427 0 Blue 2
5 AM Mon 68 68 E 2 2300 3427 0 Blue 1
6 AM Mon 69 69 E 2 2352 3427 0 Blue 2
7 AM Mon 69 69 E 2 2352 3427 0 Blue 2
8 AM Mon 74 74 SE 2 2758 3427 0 Blue 7
9 AM Mon 76 77 SE 2 3105 3427 0 Blue 10
10 AM Mon 77 80 SE 2 3809 3427 0 Blue 13
11 AM Mon 81 85 S 6 4468 4065 638 Blue 18
12 Noon Mon 83 88 S 6 4862 4458 1031 Blue 21
1 PM Mon 84 89 S 6 4993 4589 1162 Blue 22
2 PM Mon 86 91 SW 9 5255 4852 1425 Blue 24
3 PM Mon 87 91 SW 9 5255 4852 1425 Blue 24
4 PM Mon 86 89 SW 9 4993 4589 1162 Blue 22
5 PM Mon 84 86 SW 6 4599 4196 769 Blue 19
6 PM Mon 82 83 SW 6 4204 3803 376 Blue 16
7 PM Mon 80 80 SW 6 3809 3427 0 Blue 13
8 PM Mon 78 78 SW 6 3369 3427 0 Blue 11
9 PM Mon 76 76 SW 6 2888 3427 0 Blue 9
10 PM Mon 75 75 SW 6 2823 3427 0 Blue 8
11 PM Mon 75 75 SW 1 2823 3427 0 Blue 8
12 Midnight Tue 74 74 SW 1 2758 3427 0 Blue 7
1 AM Tue 74 74 SW 1 2758 3427 0 Blue 7
2 AM Tue 73 73 SW 1 2638 3427 0 Blue 6
3 AM Tue 72 72 SW 1 2532 3427 0 Blue 5
4 AM Tue 72 72 SW 1 2532 3427 0 Blue 5
5 AM Tue 71 71 NE 2 2455 3427 0 Blue 4
6 AM Tue 72 72 NE 2 2532 3427 0 Blue 5
7 AM Tue 72 72 NE 2 2532 3427 0 Blue 5
8 AM Tue 76 77 NE 2 3105 3427 0 Blue 10
9 AM Tue 78 81 NE 2 3941 3427 0 Blue 14
10 AM Tue 79 83 NE 2 4204 3803 376 Blue 16
11 AM Tue 82 86 SW 6 4599 4196 769 Blue 19
12 Noon Tue 84 88 SW 6 4862 4458 1031 Blue 21
1 PM Tue 86 91 SW 6 5255 4852 1425 Blue 24
2 PM Tue 87 91 SW 6 5255 4852 1425 Blue 24
3 PM Tue 88 92 SW 6 5385 4982 1555 Blue 25
4 PM Tue 87 89 SW 6 4993 4589 1162 Blue 22
5 PM Tue 86 87 SW 6 4731 4327 900 Blue 20
6 PM Tue 84 84 SW 6 4336 3934 507 Blue 17
7 PM Tue 82 82 SW 6 4072 3620 193 Blue 15
8 PM Tue 80 80 SW 6 3809 3427 0 Blue 13
9 PM Tue 78 78 SW 6 3369 3427 0 Blue 11
10 PM Tue 77 77 SW 6 3105 3427 0 Blue 10
11 PM Tue 77 77 S 2 3105 3427 0 Blue 10
12 Midnight Wed 76 76 S 2 2888 3427 0 Blue 9
1 AM Wed 76 76 S 2 2888 3427 0 Blue 9
2 AM Wed 76 76 S 2 2888 3427 0 Blue 9
3 AM Wed 75 75 S 2 2823 3427 0 Blue 8
4 AM Wed 75 75 S 2 2823 3427 0 Blue 8
5 AM Wed 74 74 E 2 2758 3427 0 Blue 7
6 AM Wed 75 75 E 2 2823 3427 0 Blue 8
7 AM Wed 75 75 E 2 2823 3427 0 Blue 8
8 AM Wed 79 79 E 2 3631 3427 0 Blue 12
9 AM Wed 81 82 E 2 4072 3620 193 Blue 15
10 AM Wed 82 85 E 2 4468 4065 638 Blue 18
11 AM Wed 85 91 SW 7 5255 4852 1425 Blue 24
12 Noon Wed 87 94 SW 7 5646 5243 1816 Blue 27
1 PM Wed 89 96 SW 7 6165 5503 2076 Blue 29
2 PM Wed 90 97 SW 7 6430 5633 2206 Blue 30
3 PM Wed 91 97 SW 7 6430 5633 2206 Blue 30
4 PM Wed 90 94 SW 7 5646 5243 1816 Blue 27
5 PM Wed 88 90 SW 7 5124 4721 1294 Blue 23
6 PM Wed 86 87 SW 7 4731 4327 900 Blue 20
7 PM Wed 83 83 SW 7 4204 3803 376 Blue 16
8 PM Wed 80 80 SW 7 3809 3427 0 Blue 13
9 PM Wed 77 77 SW 7 3105 3427 0 Blue 10
10 PM Wed 77 77 SW 7 3105 3427 0 Blue 10
11 PM Wed 76 76 S 3 2888 3427 0 Blue 9
12 Midnight Thu 75 75 S 3 2823 3427 0 Blue 8
1 AM Thu 75 75 S 3 2823 3427 0 Blue 8
2 AM Thu 75 75 S 3 2823 3427 0 Blue 8
3 AM Thu 74 74 S 3 2758 3427 0 Blue 7
4 AM Thu 73 73 S 3 2638 3427 0 Blue 6
5 AM Thu 72 72 S 2 2532 3427 0 Blue 5
6 AM Thu 73 73 S 2 2638 3427 0 Blue 6
7 AM Thu 73 73 S 2 2638 3427 0 Blue 6
8 AM Thu 76 77 S 2 3105 3427 0 Blue 10
9 AM Thu 78 80 S 2 3809 3427 0 Blue 13
10 AM Thu 79 83 S 2 4204 3803 376 Blue 16
11 AM Thu 82 88 SW 8 4862 4458 1031 Blue 21
12 Noon Thu 83 90 SW 8 5124 4721 1294 Blue 23
1 PM Thu 85 92 SW 8 5385 4982 1555 Blue 25
2 PM Thu 86 93 SW 8 5516 5112 1685 Blue 26
3 PM Thu 87 93 SW 8 5516 5112 1685 Blue 26
4 PM Thu 86 90 SW 8 5124 4721 1294 Blue 23
5 PM Thu 84 86 SW 7 4599 4196 769 Blue 19
6 PM Thu 82 83 SW 7 4204 3803 376 Blue 16
7 PM Thu 80 80 SW 7 3809 3427 0 Blue 13
8 PM Thu 77 77 SW 7 3105 3427 0 Blue 10
9 PM Thu 75 75 SW 7 2823 3427 0 Blue 8
10 PM Thu 74 74 SW 7 2758 3427 0 Blue 7
11 PM Thu 74 74 S 5 2758 3427 0 Blue 7
12 Midnight Fri 73 73 S 5 2638 3427 0 Blue 6
1 AM Fri 73 73 S 5 2638 3427 0 Blue 6
2 AM Fri 72 72 S 5 2532 3427 0 Blue 5
3 AM Fri 71 71 S 5 2455 3427 0 Blue 4
4 AM Fri 71 71 S 5 2455 3427 0 Blue 4
5 AM Fri 70 70 S 2 2403 3427 0 Blue 3
6 AM Fri 71 71 S 2 2455 3427 0 Blue 4
7 AM Fri 71 71 S 2 2455 3427 0 Blue 4
8 AM Fri 75 76 S 2 2888 3427 0 Blue 9
9 AM Fri 76 78 S 2 3369 3427 0 Blue 11
10 AM Fri 78 82 S 2 4072 3620 193 Blue 15
11 AM Fri 81 87 SW 7 4731 4327 900 Blue 20
12 Noon Fri 82 89 SW 7 4993 4589 1162 Blue 22
1 PM Fri 84 91 SW 7 5255 4852 1425 Blue 24
2 PM Fri 85 92 SW 7 5385 4982 1555 Blue 25
3 PM Fri 86 92 SW 7 5385 4982 1555 Blue 25
4 PM Fri 85 89 SW 7 4993 4589 1162 Blue 22
5 PM Fri 83 85 SW 7 4468 4065 638 Blue 18
6 PM Fri 81 82 SW 7 4072 3620 193 Blue 15
7 PM Fri 79 79 SW 7 3631 3427 0 Blue 12
8 PM Fri 76 76 SW 7 2888 3427 0 Blue 9
9 PM Fri 74 74 SW 7 2758 3427 0 Blue 7
10 PM Fri 73 73 SW 7 2638 3427 0 Blue 6
11 PM Fri 73 73 S 6 2638 3427 0 Blue 6
12 Midnight Sat 72 72 S 6 2532 3427 0 Blue 5
1 AM Sat 72 72 S 6 2532 3427 0 Blue 5
2 AM Sat 71 71 S 6 2455 3427 0 Blue 4
3 AM Sat 70 70 S 6 2403 3427 0 Blue 3
4 AM Sat 70 70 S 6 2403 3427 0 Blue 3

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst