Detailed Predictions for: Henninger Flats
Launch Altitude (f): 3427
LZ Altitude (f): 1033
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

18 SEP 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Wed 63 63 NW 3 2162 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 61 61 NW 3 2162 3427 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 63 63 NW 3 2162 3427 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 65 65 NW 5 2305 3427 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 66 67 NW 5 2902 3427 0 Blue 2
10 AM Wed 68 71 NW 5 3280 3427 0 Blue 6
11 AM Wed 70 75 SW 8 4060 3427 0 Blue 10
12 Noon Wed 73 79 SW 8 5027 4302 875 Blue 14
1 PM Wed 76 82 SW 8 5340 5018 1591 Blue 17
2 PM Wed 79 85 SW 9 6027 5330 1903 Blue 20
3 PM Wed 80 84 SW 9 5700 5226 1799 Blue 19
4 PM Wed 78 81 SW 9 5236 4814 1387 Blue 16
5 PM Wed 76 77 S 8 4578 3786 359 Blue 12
6 PM Wed 71 71 S 8 3280 3427 0 Blue 6
7 PM Wed 66 66 S 8 2745 3427 0 Blue 1
8 PM Wed 65 65 S 7 2305 3427 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 64 64 S 7 2199 3427 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 63 63 S 7 2162 3427 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 63 63 S 5 2162 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 62 62 S 5 2162 3427 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 62 62 S 5 2162 3427 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 62 62 S 5 2162 3427 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 62 62 S 5 2162 3427 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 61 61 S 5 2162 3427 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 62 62 S 5 2162 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 60 60 S 5 2162 3427 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 61 61 S 5 2162 3427 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 63 63 SW 6 2162 3427 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 64 64 SW 6 2199 3427 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 66 67 SW 6 2902 3427 0 Blue 2
11 AM Thu 67 72 SW 8 3420 3427 0 Blue 7
12 Noon Thu 70 76 SW 8 4319 3555 128 Blue 11
1 PM Thu 72 78 SW 8 4835 4045 618 Blue 13
2 PM Thu 75 81 SW 8 5236 4814 1387 Blue 16
3 PM Thu 75 79 SW 8 5027 4302 875 Blue 14
4 PM Thu 74 77 SW 8 4578 3786 359 Blue 12
5 PM Thu 72 73 SW 7 3561 3427 0 Blue 8
6 PM Thu 68 68 SW 7 2969 3427 0 Blue 3
7 PM Thu 64 64 SW 7 2199 3427 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 63 63 SW 7 2162 3427 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 62 62 SW 7 2162 3427 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 61 61 SW 7 2162 3427 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 62 62 NW 6 2162 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 60 60 NW 6 2162 3427 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 60 60 NW 6 2162 3427 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 61 61 NW 6 2162 3427 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 60 60 NW 6 2162 3427 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 60 60 NW 6 2162 3427 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 60 60 NE 7 2162 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 59 59 NE 7 2162 3427 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 61 61 NE 7 2162 3427 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 63 63 NE 7 2162 3427 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 65 66 NE 7 2745 3427 0 Blue 1
10 AM Fri 68 71 NE 7 3280 3427 0 Blue 6
11 AM Fri 69 74 SW 6 3799 3427 0 Blue 9
12 Noon Fri 73 79 SW 6 5027 4302 875 Blue 14
1 PM Fri 77 83 SW 6 5445 5122 1695 Blue 18
2 PM Fri 80 86 SW 6 6550 5434 2007 Blue 21
3 PM Fri 81 85 SW 6 6027 5330 1903 Blue 20
4 PM Fri 79 82 SW 6 5340 5018 1591 Blue 17
5 PM Fri 77 78 SW 7 4835 4045 618 Blue 13
6 PM Fri 73 73 SW 7 3561 3427 0 Blue 8
7 PM Fri 68 68 SW 7 2969 3427 0 Blue 3
8 PM Fri 68 68 SW 7 2969 3427 0 Blue 3
9 PM Fri 66 66 SW 7 2745 3427 0 Blue 1
10 PM Fri 65 65 SW 7 2305 3427 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 66 66 NE 5 2745 3427 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Sat 65 65 NE 5 2305 3427 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 65 65 NE 5 2305 3427 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 65 65 NE 5 2305 3427 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 64 64 NE 5 2199 3427 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 64 64 NE 5 2199 3427 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 64 64 NE 5 2199 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 63 63 NE 5 2162 3427 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 65 65 NE 5 2305 3427 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 67 67 NE 5 2902 3427 0 Blue 2
9 AM Sat 70 71 NE 5 3280 3427 0 Blue 6
10 AM Sat 72 75 NE 5 4060 3427 0 Blue 10
11 AM Sat 74 79 SW 7 5027 4302 875 Blue 14
12 Noon Sat 79 85 SW 7 6027 5330 1903 Blue 20
1 PM Sat 82 88 SW 7 7586 5988 2561 Blue 23
2 PM Sat 86 92 SW 7 9116 7992 4565 Blue 27
3 PM Sat 87 91 SW 7 8903 7501 4074 Blue 26
4 PM Sat 85 88 SW 7 7586 5988 2561 Blue 23
5 PM Sat 82 83 SW 6 5445 5122 1695 Blue 18
6 PM Sat 77 77 SW 6 4578 3786 359 Blue 12
7 PM Sat 71 71 SW 6 3280 3427 0 Blue 6
8 PM Sat 71 71 SW 6 3280 3427 0 Blue 6
9 PM Sat 69 69 SW 6 3046 3427 0 Blue 4
10 PM Sat 68 68 SW 6 2969 3427 0 Blue 3
11 PM Sat 69 69 E 2 3046 3427 0 Blue 4
12 Midnight Sun 67 67 E 2 2902 3427 0 Blue 2
1 AM Sun 67 67 E 2 2902 3427 0 Blue 2
2 AM Sun 67 67 E 2 2902 3427 0 Blue 2
3 AM Sun 67 67 E 2 2902 3427 0 Blue 2
4 AM Sun 66 66 E 2 2745 3427 0 Blue 1
5 AM Sun 67 67 NE 2 2902 3427 0 Blue 2
6 AM Sun 65 65 NE 2 2305 3427 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 67 67 NE 2 2902 3427 0 Blue 2
8 AM Sun 69 69 NE 2 3046 3427 0 Blue 4
9 AM Sun 71 72 NE 2 3420 3427 0 Blue 7
10 AM Sun 73 75 NE 2 4060 3427 0 Blue 10
11 AM Sun 75 79 SW 10 5027 4302 875 Blue 14
12 Noon Sun 79 84 SW 10 5700 5226 1799 Blue 19
1 PM Sun 82 87 SW 10 7076 5664 2237 Blue 22
2 PM Sun 85 90 SW 10 8568 6997 3570 Blue 25
3 PM Sun 86 90 SW 10 8568 6997 3570 Blue 25
4 PM Sun 84 86 SW 10 6550 5434 2007 Blue 21
5 PM Sun 81 82 SW 9 5340 5018 1591 Blue 17
6 PM Sun 75 75 SW 9 4060 3427 0 Blue 10
7 PM Sun 70 70 SW 9 3139 3427 0 Blue 5
8 PM Sun 69 69 SW 9 3046 3427 0 Blue 4
9 PM Sun 67 67 SW 9 2902 3427 0 Blue 2
10 PM Sun 66 66 SW 9 2745 3427 0 Blue 1
11 PM Sun 67 67 SE 5 2902 3427 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Mon 65 65 SE 5 2305 3427 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 65 65 SE 5 2305 3427 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 65 65 SE 5 2305 3427 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 65 65 SE 5 2305 3427 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 64 64 SE 5 2199 3427 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 65 65 SE 7 2305 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 63 63 SE 7 2162 3427 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 64 64 SE 7 2199 3427 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 66 66 SE 7 2745 3427 0 Blue 1
9 AM Mon 67 68 SE 7 2969 3427 0 Blue 3
10 AM Mon 68 70 SE 7 3139 3427 0 Blue 5
11 AM Mon 69 73 S 8 3561 3427 0 Blue 8
12 Noon Mon 72 77 S 8 4578 3786 359 Blue 12
1 PM Mon 74 79 S 8 5027 4302 875 Blue 14
2 PM Mon 77 82 S 8 5340 5018 1591 Blue 17
3 PM Mon 77 81 S 8 5236 4814 1387 Blue 16
4 PM Mon 76 78 S 8 4835 4045 618 Blue 13
5 PM Mon 74 75 S 8 4060 3427 0 Blue 10
6 PM Mon 70 70 S 8 3139 3427 0 Blue 5
7 PM Mon 66 66 S 8 2745 3427 0 Blue 1
8 PM Mon 66 66 S 8 2745 3427 0 Blue 1
9 PM Mon 65 65 S 8 2305 3427 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 64 64 S 8 2199 3427 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 64 64 SE 6 2199 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 63 63 SE 6 2162 3427 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 63 63 SE 6 2162 3427 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 64 64 SE 6 2199 3427 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 63 63 SE 6 2162 3427 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 63 63 SE 6 2162 3427 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst