Detailed Predictions for: Henninger Flats
Launch Altitude (f): 3427
LZ Altitude (f): 1033
Sounding

Station:

 KNKX

Date/Time:

 18 MAY 2012

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
5 AM Fri 56 56 W 3 3021 3427 0 Blue 8
6 AM Fri 55 55 W 3 3004 3427 0 Blue 7
7 AM Fri 56 56 W 3 3021 3427 0 Blue 8
8 AM Fri 57 57 W 3 3039 3427 0 Blue 9
9 AM Fri 65 65 W 3 3244 3427 0 Blue 17
10 AM Fri 68 68 W 3 3528 3427 0 Blue 20
11 AM Fri 67 74 SW 9 4939 4206 779 Blue 26
12 Noon Fri 69 77 SW 9 5484 4913 1486 Blue 29
1 PM Fri 71 79 SW 9 6213 5251 1824 Blue 31
2 PM Fri 73 80 SW 9 6570 5446 2019 Blue 32
3 PM Fri 74 80 SW 9 6570 5446 2019 Blue 32
4 PM Fri 72 76 SW 9 5264 4656 1229 Blue 28
5 PM Fri 72 74 SW 8 4939 4206 779 Blue 26
6 PM Fri 68 69 SW 8 3756 3427 0 Blue 21
7 PM Fri 64 64 SW 8 3184 3427 0 Blue 16
8 PM Fri 58 58 SW 8 3056 3427 0 Blue 10
9 PM Fri 58 58 SW 8 3056 3427 0 Blue 10
10 PM Fri 57 57 SW 8 3039 3427 0 Blue 9
11 PM Fri 57 57 W 2 3039 3427 0 Blue 9
12 Midnight Sat 56 56 W 2 3021 3427 0 Blue 8
1 AM Sat 56 56 W 2 3021 3427 0 Blue 8
2 AM Sat 59 59 W 2 3073 3427 0 Blue 11
3 AM Sat 58 58 W 2 3056 3427 0 Blue 10
4 AM Sat 58 58 W 2 3056 3427 0 Blue 10
5 AM Sat 57 57 N 1 3039 3427 0 Blue 9
6 AM Sat 56 56 N 1 3021 3427 0 Blue 8
7 AM Sat 57 57 N 1 3039 3427 0 Blue 9
8 AM Sat 59 59 N 1 3073 3427 0 Blue 11
9 AM Sat 68 69 N 1 3756 3427 0 Blue 21
10 AM Sat 71 72 N 1 4447 3745 318 Blue 24
11 AM Sat 70 77 SW 9 5484 4913 1486 Blue 29
12 Noon Sat 72 80 SW 9 6570 5446 2019 Blue 32
1 PM Sat 75 83 SW 9 10163 6521 3094 White 35
2 PM Sat 77 84 SW 9 10352 6871 3444 White 36
3 PM Sat 78 84 SW 9 10352 6871 3444 White 36
4 PM Sat 75 79 SW 9 6213 5251 1824 Blue 31
5 PM Sat 75 77 SW 6 5484 4913 1486 Blue 29
6 PM Sat 72 72 SW 6 4447 3745 318 Blue 24
7 PM Sat 67 67 SW 6 3415 3427 0 Blue 19
8 PM Sat 60 60 SW 6 3090 3427 0 Blue 12
9 PM Sat 60 60 SW 6 3090 3427 0 Blue 12
10 PM Sat 60 60 SW 6 3090 3427 0 Blue 12
11 PM Sat 59 59 NE 1 3073 3427 0 Blue 11
12 Midnight Sun 59 59 NE 1 3073 3427 0 Blue 11
1 AM Sun 58 58 NE 1 3056 3427 0 Blue 10
2 AM Sun 62 62 NE 1 3135 3427 0 Blue 14
3 AM Sun 60 60 NE 1 3090 3427 0 Blue 12
4 AM Sun 60 60 NE 1 3090 3427 0 Blue 12
5 AM Sun 60 60 N 1 3090 3427 0 Blue 12
6 AM Sun 58 58 N 1 3056 3427 0 Blue 10
7 AM Sun 59 59 N 1 3073 3427 0 Blue 11
8 AM Sun 61 62 N 1 3135 3427 0 Blue 14
9 AM Sun 71 74 N 1 4939 4206 779 Blue 26
10 AM Sun 74 79 N 1 6213 5251 1824 Blue 31
11 AM Sun 74 81 SW 8 7093 5808 2381 Blue 33
12 Noon Sun 76 84 SW 8 10352 6871 3444 White 36
1 PM Sun 78 86 SW 8 10730 10730 7303 White 38
2 PM Sun 81 88 SW 8 11106 11106 7679 White 40
3 PM Sun 82 88 SW 8 11106 11106 7679 White 40
4 PM Sun 79 83 SW 8 10163 6521 3094 White 35
5 PM Sun 79 81 SW 6 7093 5808 2381 Blue 33
6 PM Sun 75 75 SW 6 5121 4431 1004 Blue 27
7 PM Sun 70 70 SW 6 3989 3427 0 Blue 22
8 PM Sun 63 63 SW 6 3159 3427 0 Blue 15
9 PM Sun 63 63 SW 6 3159 3427 0 Blue 15
10 PM Sun 62 62 SW 6 3135 3427 0 Blue 14
11 PM Sun 61 61 E 1 3111 3427 0 Blue 13
12 Midnight Mon 61 61 E 1 3111 3427 0 Blue 13
1 AM Mon 60 60 E 1 3090 3427 0 Blue 12
2 AM Mon 63 63 E 1 3159 3427 0 Blue 15
3 AM Mon 62 62 E 1 3135 3427 0 Blue 14
4 AM Mon 62 62 E 1 3135 3427 0 Blue 14
5 AM Mon 62 62 NE 1 3135 3427 0 Blue 14
6 AM Mon 60 60 NE 1 3090 3427 0 Blue 12
7 AM Mon 61 61 NE 1 3111 3427 0 Blue 13
8 AM Mon 63 64 NE 1 3184 3427 0 Blue 16
9 AM Mon 71 74 NE 1 4939 4206 779 Blue 26
10 AM Mon 74 79 NE 1 6213 5251 1824 Blue 31
11 AM Mon 73 79 SW 8 6213 5251 1824 Blue 31
12 Noon Mon 75 82 SW 8 9973 6167 2740 White 34
1 PM Mon 77 84 SW 8 10352 6871 3444 White 36
2 PM Mon 79 86 SW 8 10730 10730 7303 White 38
3 PM Mon 80 85 SW 8 10541 10541 7114 White 37
4 PM Mon 77 81 SW 8 7093 5808 2381 Blue 33
5 PM Mon 77 79 SW 9 6213 5251 1824 Blue 31
6 PM Mon 73 73 SW 9 4674 3976 549 Blue 25
7 PM Mon 68 68 SW 9 3528 3427 0 Blue 20
8 PM Mon 61 61 SW 9 3111 3427 0 Blue 13
9 PM Mon 61 61 SW 9 3111 3427 0 Blue 13
10 PM Mon 60 60 SW 9 3090 3427 0 Blue 12
11 PM Mon 59 59 N 2 3073 3427 0 Blue 11
12 Midnight Tue 59 59 N 2 3073 3427 0 Blue 11
1 AM Tue 58 58 N 2 3056 3427 0 Blue 10
2 AM Tue 61 61 N 2 3111 3427 0 Blue 13
3 AM Tue 60 60 N 2 3090 3427 0 Blue 12
4 AM Tue 60 60 N 2 3090 3427 0 Blue 12
5 AM Tue 60 60 N 3 3090 3427 0 Blue 12
6 AM Tue 58 58 N 3 3056 3427 0 Blue 10
7 AM Tue 59 59 N 3 3073 3427 0 Blue 11
8 AM Tue 61 62 N 3 3135 3427 0 Blue 14
9 AM Tue 69 72 N 3 4447 3745 318 Blue 24
10 AM Tue 72 76 N 3 5264 4656 1229 Blue 28
11 AM Tue 71 78 W 9 5850 5105 1678 Blue 30
12 Noon Tue 73 81 W 9 7093 5808 2381 Blue 33
1 PM Tue 75 83 W 9 10163 6521 3094 White 35
2 PM Tue 77 84 W 9 10352 6871 3444 White 36
3 PM Tue 78 84 W 9 10352 6871 3444 White 36
4 PM Tue 75 79 W 9 6213 5251 1824 Blue 31
5 PM Tue 75 77 W 10 5484 4913 1486 Blue 29
6 PM Tue 71 71 W 10 4220 3518 91 Blue 23
7 PM Tue 66 66 W 10 3323 3427 0 Blue 18
8 PM Tue 58 58 W 10 3056 3427 0 Blue 10
9 PM Tue 58 58 W 10 3056 3427 0 Blue 10
10 PM Tue 57 57 W 10 3039 3427 0 Blue 9
11 PM Tue 56 56 N 6 3021 3427 0 Blue 8
12 Midnight Wed 56 56 N 6 3021 3427 0 Blue 8
1 AM Wed 55 55 N 6 3004 3427 0 Blue 7
2 AM Wed 59 59 N 6 3073 3427 0 Blue 11
3 AM Wed 57 57 N 6 3039 3427 0 Blue 9
4 AM Wed 57 57 N 6 3039 3427 0 Blue 9
5 AM Wed 57 57 N 9 3039 3427 0 Blue 9
6 AM Wed 55 55 N 9 3004 3427 0 Blue 7
7 AM Wed 56 56 N 9 3021 3427 0 Blue 8
8 AM Wed 58 59 N 9 3073 3427 0 Blue 11
9 AM Wed 69 72 N 9 4447 3745 318 Blue 24
10 AM Wed 72 77 N 9 5484 4913 1486 Blue 29
11 AM Wed 71 78 NE 9 5850 5105 1678 Blue 30
12 Noon Wed 74 82 NE 9 9973 6167 2740 White 34
1 PM Wed 76 84 NE 9 10352 6871 3444 White 36
2 PM Wed 79 87 NE 9 10919 10919 7492 White 39
3 PM Wed 80 86 NE 9 10730 10730 7303 White 38
4 PM Wed 76 80 NE 9 6570 5446 2019 Blue 32
5 PM Wed 76 78 W 7 5850 5105 1678 Blue 30
6 PM Wed 72 73 W 7 4674 3976 549 Blue 25
7 PM Wed 66 66 W 7 3323 3427 0 Blue 18
8 PM Wed 57 57 W 7 3039 3427 0 Blue 9
9 PM Wed 57 57 W 7 3039 3427 0 Blue 9
10 PM Wed 56 56 W 7 3021 3427 0 Blue 8
11 PM Wed 56 56 N 6 3021 3427 0 Blue 8
12 Midnight Thu 55 55 N 6 3004 3427 0 Blue 7
1 AM Thu 54 54 N 6 2987 3427 0 Blue 6
2 AM Thu 59 59 N 6 3073 3427 0 Blue 11
3 AM Thu 57 57 N 6 3039 3427 0 Blue 9
4 AM Thu 56 56 N 6 3021 3427 0 Blue 8

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst