Detailed Predictions for: Henninger Flats
Launch Altitude (f): 3427
LZ Altitude (f): 1033
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

18 MAY 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 47 47 W 2 2221 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 46 46 W 2 2221 3427 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 46 46 W 2 2221 3427 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 48 49 W 2 2221 3427 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 50 53 W 2 2482 3427 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 52 57 W 2 3596 3427 0 Blue 4
11 AM Sat 56 60 S 6 4131 3578 151 Blue 7
12 Noon Sat 58 63 S 6 4794 4128 701 Blue 10
1 PM Sat 60 65 S 6 5154 4384 957 Blue 12
2 PM Sat 63 68 SW 9 5524 5143 1716 Blue 15
3 PM Sat 65 69 SW 9 5897 5253 1826 Blue 16
4 PM Sat 64 66 SW 9 5264 4762 1335 Blue 13
5 PM Sat 62 62 SW 7 4411 4078 651 Blue 9
6 PM Sat 60 60 SW 7 4131 3578 151 Blue 7
7 PM Sat 58 58 SW 7 3968 3427 0 Blue 5
8 PM Sat 55 55 SW 7 2887 3427 0 Blue 2
9 PM Sat 53 53 SW 7 2482 3427 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 53 53 SW 7 2482 3427 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 52 52 S 6 2321 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 52 52 S 6 2321 3427 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 51 51 S 6 2221 3427 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 50 50 S 9 2221 3427 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 50 50 S 9 2221 3427 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 49 49 S 9 2221 3427 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 49 49 S 7 2221 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 48 48 S 7 2221 3427 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 48 48 S 7 2221 3427 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 49 49 S 10 2221 3427 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 50 50 S 10 2221 3427 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 51 51 S 10 2221 3427 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 52 55 SW 10 2887 3427 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Sun 53 56 SW 10 3183 3427 0 Blue 3
1 PM Sun 54 57 SW 10 3596 3427 0 Blue 4
2 PM Sun 55 58 S 12 3968 3427 0 Blue 5
3 PM Sun 56 58 S 12 3968 3427 0 Blue 5
4 PM Sun 55 56 S 12 3183 3427 0 Blue 3
5 PM Sun 54 55 SW 10 2887 3427 0 Blue 2
6 PM Sun 53 53 SW 10 2482 3427 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 52 52 SW 10 2321 3427 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 50 50 SW 10 2221 3427 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 49 49 SW 10 2221 3427 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 49 49 SW 10 2221 3427 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 48 48 SW 5 2221 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 48 48 SW 5 2221 3427 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 48 48 SW 5 2221 3427 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 47 47 SW 5 2221 3427 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 47 47 SW 5 2221 3427 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 47 47 SW 5 2221 3427 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 46 46 W 7 2221 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 46 46 W 7 2221 3427 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 46 46 W 7 2221 3427 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 48 49 W 7 2221 3427 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 49 52 W 7 2321 3427 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 51 56 W 7 3183 3427 0 Blue 3
11 AM Mon 54 60 SW 10 4131 3578 151 Blue 7
12 Noon Mon 56 63 SW 10 4794 4128 701 Blue 10
1 PM Mon 58 65 SW 10 5154 4384 957 Blue 12
2 PM Mon 60 66 SW 10 5264 4762 1335 Blue 13
3 PM Mon 62 67 SW 10 5386 5034 1607 Blue 14
4 PM Mon 61 64 SW 10 5044 4177 750 Blue 11
5 PM Mon 60 62 SW 14 4411 4078 651 Blue 9
6 PM Mon 58 58 SW 14 3968 3427 0 Blue 5
7 PM Mon 56 56 SW 14 3183 3427 0 Blue 3
8 PM Mon 53 53 SW 14 2482 3427 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 52 52 SW 14 2321 3427 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 51 51 SW 14 2221 3427 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 51 51 S 6 2221 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 50 50 S 6 2221 3427 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 50 50 S 6 2221 3427 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 49 49 S 6 2221 3427 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 49 49 S 6 2221 3427 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 48 48 S 6 2221 3427 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 48 48 E 6 2221 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 47 47 E 6 2221 3427 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 47 47 E 6 2221 3427 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 48 48 E 6 2221 3427 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 49 50 E 6 2221 3427 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 50 52 E 6 2321 3427 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 52 55 SW 13 2887 3427 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Tue 53 56 SW 13 3183 3427 0 Blue 3
1 PM Tue 54 57 SW 13 3596 3427 0 Blue 4
2 PM Tue 55 58 SW 13 3968 3427 0 Blue 5
3 PM Tue 56 58 SW 13 3968 3427 0 Blue 5
4 PM Tue 55 56 SW 13 3183 3427 0 Blue 3
5 PM Tue 55 56 SW 12 3183 3427 0 Blue 3
6 PM Tue 53 53 SW 12 2482 3427 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 52 52 SW 12 2321 3427 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 51 51 SW 12 2221 3427 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 50 50 SW 12 2221 3427 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 50 50 SW 12 2221 3427 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 49 49 S 6 2221 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 49 49 S 6 2221 3427 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 49 49 S 6 2221 3427 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 48 48 S 6 2221 3427 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 48 48 S 6 2221 3427 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 47 47 S 6 2221 3427 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 47 47 S 7 2221 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 47 47 S 7 2221 3427 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 47 47 S 7 2221 3427 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 49 50 S 7 2221 3427 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 50 52 S 7 2321 3427 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 52 55 S 7 2887 3427 0 Blue 2
11 AM Wed 54 58 SW 12 3968 3427 0 Blue 5
12 Noon Wed 56 60 SW 12 4131 3578 151 Blue 7
1 PM Wed 58 62 SW 12 4411 4078 651 Blue 9
2 PM Wed 59 63 SW 12 4794 4128 701 Blue 10
3 PM Wed 61 64 SW 12 5044 4177 750 Blue 11
4 PM Wed 60 62 SW 12 4411 4078 651 Blue 9
5 PM Wed 59 60 SW 9 4131 3578 151 Blue 7
6 PM Wed 57 57 SW 9 3596 3427 0 Blue 4
7 PM Wed 56 56 SW 9 3183 3427 0 Blue 3
8 PM Wed 53 53 SW 9 2482 3427 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 52 52 SW 9 2321 3427 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 52 52 SW 9 2321 3427 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 51 51 NE 6 2221 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 51 51 NE 6 2221 3427 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 50 50 NE 6 2221 3427 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 50 50 NE 6 2221 3427 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 49 49 NE 6 2221 3427 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 49 49 NE 6 2221 3427 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 48 48 NE 5 2221 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 48 48 NE 5 2221 3427 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 48 48 NE 5 2221 3427 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 50 51 NE 5 2221 3427 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 52 54 NE 5 2676 3427 0 Blue 1
10 AM Thu 54 57 NE 5 3596 3427 0 Blue 4
11 AM Thu 57 61 S 7 4180 3961 534 Blue 8
12 Noon Thu 59 64 S 7 5044 4177 750 Blue 11
1 PM Thu 61 66 S 7 5264 4762 1335 Blue 13
2 PM Thu 63 68 S 7 5524 5143 1716 Blue 15
3 PM Thu 65 69 S 7 5897 5253 1826 Blue 16
4 PM Thu 64 66 S 7 5264 4762 1335 Blue 13
5 PM Thu 63 65 S 5 5154 4384 957 Blue 12
6 PM Thu 61 61 S 5 4180 3961 534 Blue 8
7 PM Thu 59 59 S 5 4081 3427 0 Blue 6
8 PM Thu 56 56 S 5 3183 3427 0 Blue 3
9 PM Thu 55 55 S 5 2887 3427 0 Blue 2
10 PM Thu 54 54 S 5 2676 3427 0 Blue 1
11 PM Thu 54 54 W 2 2676 3427 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Fri 53 53 W 2 2482 3427 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 53 53 W 2 2482 3427 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 52 52 W 2 2321 3427 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 52 52 W 2 2321 3427 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 51 51 W 2 2221 3427 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst