Detailed Predictions for: Henninger Flats
Launch Altitude (f): 3427
LZ Altitude (f): 1033
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

22 APR 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 59 59 N 2 1847 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 59 59 N 2 1847 3427 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 60 60 N 2 1847 3427 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 62 63 N 2 1847 3427 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 65 68 N 2 1847 3427 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 70 75 N 2 4387 3427 0 Blue 2
11 AM Sun 74 80 W 2 7465 5693 2266 Blue 7
12 Noon Sun 77 84 W 2 11745 8487 5060 Blue 11
1 PM Sun 78 86 W 2 11915 11559 8132 Blue 13
2 PM Sun 78 85 SW 9 11830 9759 6332 Blue 12
3 PM Sun 78 83 SW 9 11622 7334 3907 Blue 10
4 PM Sun 77 80 SW 9 7465 5693 2266 Blue 7
5 PM Sun 75 77 SW 10 5742 3427 0 Blue 4
6 PM Sun 73 73 SW 10 2557 3427 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 71 71 SW 10 2101 3427 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 68 68 SW 3 1847 3427 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 66 66 SW 3 1847 3427 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 65 65 SW 3 1847 3427 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 64 64 S 2 1847 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 63 63 S 2 1847 3427 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 63 63 S 2 1847 3427 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 62 62 E 1 1847 3427 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 61 61 E 1 1847 3427 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 61 61 E 1 1847 3427 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 60 60 NE 0 1847 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 60 60 NE 0 1847 3427 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 61 61 NE 0 1847 3427 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 62 63 NW 1 1847 3427 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 66 68 NW 1 1847 3427 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 70 74 NW 1 3434 3427 0 Blue 1
11 AM Mon 74 80 SW 3 7465 5693 2266 Blue 7
12 Noon Mon 76 83 SW 3 11622 7334 3907 Blue 10
1 PM Mon 77 84 SW 3 11745 8487 5060 Blue 11
2 PM Mon 78 85 SW 10 11830 9759 6332 Blue 12
3 PM Mon 78 83 SW 10 11622 7334 3907 Blue 10
4 PM Mon 78 81 SW 10 8782 6110 2683 Blue 8
5 PM Mon 77 78 SW 10 6149 4327 900 Blue 5
6 PM Mon 74 74 SW 10 3434 3427 0 Blue 1
7 PM Mon 71 71 SW 10 2101 3427 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 68 68 SW 3 1847 3427 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 66 66 SW 3 1847 3427 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 64 64 SW 3 1847 3427 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 63 63 S 1 1847 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 61 61 S 1 1847 3427 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 61 61 S 1 1847 3427 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 60 60 S 0 1847 3427 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 60 60 S 0 1847 3427 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 60 60 S 0 1847 3427 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 60 60 NE 1 1847 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 61 61 NE 1 1847 3427 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 62 62 NE 1 1847 3427 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 63 63 NE 1 1847 3427 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 66 67 NE 1 1847 3427 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 70 72 NE 1 2329 3427 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 73 78 SW 10 6149 4327 900 Blue 5
12 Noon Tue 75 81 SW 10 8782 6110 2683 Blue 8
1 PM Tue 77 83 SW 10 11622 7334 3907 Blue 10
2 PM Tue 78 84 SW 10 11745 8487 5060 Blue 11
3 PM Tue 78 82 SW 10 10049 6524 3097 Blue 9
4 PM Tue 78 81 SW 10 8782 6110 2683 Blue 8
5 PM Tue 77 78 SW 9 6149 4327 900 Blue 5
6 PM Tue 74 74 SW 9 3434 3427 0 Blue 1
7 PM Tue 71 71 SW 9 2101 3427 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 68 68 SW 9 1847 3427 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 66 66 SW 9 1847 3427 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 64 64 SW 9 1847 3427 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 63 63 S 2 1847 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 62 62 S 2 1847 3427 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 62 62 S 2 1847 3427 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 61 61 S 2 1847 3427 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 61 61 S 2 1847 3427 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 60 60 S 2 1847 3427 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 59 59 SE 2 1847 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 59 59 SE 2 1847 3427 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 60 60 SE 2 1847 3427 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 61 62 SE 2 1847 3427 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 64 66 SE 2 1847 3427 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 68 71 SE 2 2101 3427 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 71 76 S 13 5286 3427 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Wed 74 80 S 13 7465 5693 2266 Blue 7
1 PM Wed 75 81 S 13 8782 6110 2683 Blue 8
2 PM Wed 76 81 S 13 8782 6110 2683 Blue 8
3 PM Wed 76 80 S 13 7465 5693 2266 Blue 7
4 PM Wed 75 78 S 13 6149 4327 900 Blue 5
5 PM Wed 74 75 SW 12 4387 3427 0 Blue 2
6 PM Wed 73 73 SW 12 2557 3427 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 71 71 SW 12 2101 3427 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 69 69 SW 12 1847 3427 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 67 67 SW 12 1847 3427 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 64 64 SW 12 1847 3427 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 63 63 S 3 1847 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 61 61 S 3 1847 3427 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 60 60 S 3 1847 3427 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 59 59 S 3 1847 3427 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 59 59 S 3 1847 3427 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 59 59 S 3 1847 3427 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 60 60 SE 2 1847 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 62 62 SE 2 1847 3427 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 64 64 SE 2 1847 3427 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 66 67 SE 2 1847 3427 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 68 70 SE 2 1872 3427 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 71 75 SE 2 4387 3427 0 Blue 2
11 AM Thu 73 78 SW 13 6149 4327 900 Blue 5
12 Noon Thu 75 81 SW 13 8782 6110 2683 Blue 8
1 PM Thu 76 82 SW 13 10049 6524 3097 Blue 9
2 PM Thu 77 83 SW 13 11622 7334 3907 Blue 10
3 PM Thu 77 81 SW 13 8782 6110 2683 Blue 8
4 PM Thu 77 80 SW 13 7465 5693 2266 Blue 7
5 PM Thu 75 76 SW 13 5286 3427 0 Blue 3
6 PM Thu 73 73 SW 13 2557 3427 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 71 71 SW 13 2101 3427 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 68 68 SW 13 1847 3427 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 66 66 SW 13 1847 3427 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 63 63 SW 13 1847 3427 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 61 61 S 5 1847 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 59 59 S 5 1847 3427 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 58 58 S 5 1847 3427 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 57 57 S 5 1847 3427 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 57 57 S 5 1847 3427 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 57 57 S 5 1847 3427 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 58 58 SE 5 1847 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 60 60 SE 5 1847 3427 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 62 62 SE 5 1847 3427 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 64 65 SE 5 1847 3427 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 66 68 SE 5 1847 3427 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 69 73 SE 5 2557 3427 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 71 76 S 13 5286 3427 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Fri 73 78 S 13 6149 4327 900 Blue 5
1 PM Fri 75 81 S 13 8782 6110 2683 Blue 8
2 PM Fri 76 81 S 13 8782 6110 2683 Blue 8
3 PM Fri 76 80 S 13 7465 5693 2266 Blue 7
4 PM Fri 76 79 S 13 6643 5200 1773 Blue 6
5 PM Fri 75 76 SW 13 5286 3427 0 Blue 3
6 PM Fri 73 73 SW 13 2557 3427 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 71 71 SW 13 2101 3427 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 69 69 SW 13 1847 3427 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 66 66 SW 13 1847 3427 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 64 64 SW 13 1847 3427 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 62 62 S 7 1847 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 60 60 S 7 1847 3427 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 58 58 S 7 1847 3427 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 57 57 S 7 1847 3427 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 57 57 S 7 1847 3427 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 57 57 S 7 1847 3427 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst