Detailed Predictions for: Henninger Flats
Launch Altitude (f): 3427
LZ Altitude (f): 1033
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

25 MAR 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Mon 50 50 NE 6 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 49 49 NE 6 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 50 50 NE 6 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 51 51 E 5 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 52 53 E 5 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 57 60 E 5 2620 3427 0 Blue 3
11 AM Mon 59 63 S 6 3070 3427 0 Blue 6
12 Noon Mon 57 62 S 6 2922 3427 0 Blue 5
1 PM Mon 65 71 S 6 4727 3800 373 Blue 14
2 PM Mon 70 75 SW 7 7550 5556 2129 White 18
3 PM Mon 71 75 SW 7 7550 5556 2129 White 18
4 PM Mon 71 73 SW 7 7122 4502 1075 White 16
5 PM Mon 69 70 SW 5 4517 3621 194 Blue 13
6 PM Mon 65 65 SW 5 3280 3427 0 Blue 8
7 PM Mon 57 57 SW 5 2257 3427 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 55 55 SW 2 2045 3427 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 56 56 SW 2 2149 3427 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 54 54 SW 2 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 54 54 SE 2 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 53 53 SE 2 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 53 53 SE 2 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 53 53 SE 2 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 52 52 SE 2 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 51 51 SE 2 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 51 51 E 1 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 50 50 E 1 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 51 51 E 1 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 52 52 E 2 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 52 53 E 2 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 56 58 E 2 2391 3427 0 Blue 1
11 AM Tue 58 60 SW 8 2620 3427 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Tue 57 60 SW 8 2620 3427 0 Blue 3
1 PM Tue 63 66 SW 8 3448 3427 0 Blue 9
2 PM Tue 67 70 SW 9 4517 3621 194 Blue 13
3 PM Tue 68 70 SW 9 4517 3621 194 Blue 13
4 PM Tue 68 69 SW 9 4190 3441 14 Blue 12
5 PM Tue 66 66 SW 6 3448 3427 0 Blue 9
6 PM Tue 62 62 SW 6 2922 3427 0 Blue 5
7 PM Tue 54 54 SW 6 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 52 52 SW 6 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 53 53 SW 6 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 51 51 SW 6 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 51 51 S 5 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 50 50 S 5 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 50 50 S 5 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 50 50 S 5 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 49 49 S 5 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 48 48 S 5 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 48 48 S 5 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 47 47 S 5 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 48 48 S 5 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 49 49 S 5 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 49 49 S 5 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 53 54 S 5 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 55 57 SW 12 2257 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 54 56 SW 12 2149 3427 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 60 62 SW 12 2922 3427 0 Blue 5
2 PM Wed 64 66 SW 12 3448 3427 0 Blue 9
3 PM Wed 65 66 SW 12 3448 3427 0 Blue 9
4 PM Wed 65 66 SW 12 3448 3427 0 Blue 9
5 PM Wed 63 63 SW 12 3070 3427 0 Blue 6
6 PM Wed 59 59 SW 12 2487 3427 0 Blue 2
7 PM Wed 51 51 SW 12 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 49 49 SW 12 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 50 50 SW 12 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 48 48 SW 12 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 48 48 W 6 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 47 47 W 6 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 47 47 W 6 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 47 47 W 6 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 46 46 W 6 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 45 45 W 6 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 45 45 NW 6 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 44 44 NW 6 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 45 45 NW 6 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 46 46 NW 6 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 46 47 NW 6 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 50 52 NW 6 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 52 55 SW 9 2045 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 51 55 SW 9 2045 3427 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 57 61 SW 9 2760 3427 0 Blue 4
2 PM Thu 61 65 SW 9 3280 3427 0 Blue 8
3 PM Thu 62 65 SW 9 3280 3427 0 Blue 8
4 PM Thu 62 64 SW 9 3175 3427 0 Blue 7
5 PM Thu 60 61 W 9 2760 3427 0 Blue 4
6 PM Thu 58 58 W 9 2391 3427 0 Blue 1
7 PM Thu 52 52 W 9 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 50 50 W 9 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 51 51 W 9 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 50 50 W 9 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 50 50 N 8 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 49 49 N 8 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 49 49 N 8 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 49 49 N 8 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 48 48 N 8 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 48 48 N 8 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 48 48 N 6 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 47 47 N 6 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 48 48 N 6 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 49 49 N 6 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 49 50 N 6 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 54 57 N 6 2257 3427 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 55 59 W 5 2487 3427 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Fri 54 59 W 5 2487 3427 0 Blue 2
1 PM Fri 61 66 W 5 3448 3427 0 Blue 9
2 PM Fri 65 70 W 5 4517 3621 194 Blue 13
3 PM Fri 66 70 W 5 4517 3621 194 Blue 13
4 PM Fri 66 68 W 5 3809 3427 0 Blue 11
5 PM Fri 64 65 W 6 3280 3427 0 Blue 8
6 PM Fri 61 61 W 6 2760 3427 0 Blue 4
7 PM Fri 54 54 W 6 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 51 51 W 6 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 53 53 W 6 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 51 51 W 6 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 51 51 N 8 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 50 50 N 8 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 50 50 N 8 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 50 50 N 8 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 49 49 N 8 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 48 48 N 8 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 48 48 N 7 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 47 47 N 7 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 48 48 N 7 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 48 48 N 7 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 49 50 N 7 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 53 56 N 7 2149 3427 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 54 58 NW 5 2391 3427 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Sat 53 58 NW 5 2391 3427 0 Blue 1
1 PM Sat 59 64 NW 5 3175 3427 0 Blue 7
2 PM Sat 62 67 NW 5 3629 3427 0 Blue 10
3 PM Sat 63 67 NW 5 3629 3427 0 Blue 10
4 PM Sat 63 65 NW 5 3280 3427 0 Blue 8
5 PM Sat 61 62 W 8 2922 3427 0 Blue 5
6 PM Sat 59 59 W 8 2487 3427 0 Blue 2
7 PM Sat 53 53 W 8 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 51 51 W 8 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 52 52 W 8 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 50 50 W 8 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 50 50 N 7 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 50 50 N 7 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 49 49 N 7 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 49 49 N 7 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 48 48 N 7 1978 3427 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 48 48 N 7 1978 3427 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst