Detailed Predictions for: Henninger Flats
Launch Altitude (f): 3427
LZ Altitude (f): 1033
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

21 JAN 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Sun 41 41 NE 9 2005 3427 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 40 40 NE 9 2005 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 40 40 NE 9 2005 3427 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 41 41 NE 8 2005 3427 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 44 44 NE 8 2005 3427 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 48 49 NE 8 3841 3427 0 Blue 1
10 AM Sun 51 52 SE 1 5383 3825 398 Blue 4
11 AM Sun 54 56 SE 1 5957 5561 2134 Blue 8
12 Noon Sun 55 57 SE 1 7045 5688 2261 Blue 9
1 PM Sun 56 58 W 5 7423 5815 2388 Blue 10
2 PM Sun 56 57 W 5 7045 5688 2261 Blue 9
3 PM Sun 55 55 W 5 5830 5322 1895 Blue 7
4 PM Sun 54 54 W 2 5703 4946 1519 Blue 6
5 PM Sun 53 53 W 2 5575 4132 705 Blue 5
6 PM Sun 51 51 W 2 5000 3427 0 Blue 3
7 PM Sun 50 50 N 5 4151 3427 0 Blue 2
8 PM Sun 49 49 N 5 3841 3427 0 Blue 1
9 PM Sun 48 48 N 5 3502 3427 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 48 48 N 6 3502 3427 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 48 48 N 6 3502 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 47 47 N 6 2005 3427 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 46 46 N 8 2005 3427 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 46 46 N 8 2005 3427 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 45 45 N 8 2005 3427 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 44 44 N 8 2005 3427 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 44 44 N 8 2005 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 44 44 N 8 2005 3427 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 46 46 NE 5 2005 3427 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 49 49 NE 5 3841 3427 0 Blue 1
9 AM Mon 53 53 NE 5 5575 4132 705 Blue 5
10 AM Mon 57 58 NE 2 7423 5815 2388 Blue 10
11 AM Mon 60 62 NE 2 8184 7592 4165 Blue 14
12 Noon Mon 61 63 NE 2 8301 7796 4369 Blue 15
1 PM Mon 62 64 N 2 8546 8000 4573 Blue 16
2 PM Mon 63 64 N 2 8546 8000 4573 Blue 16
3 PM Mon 63 63 N 2 8301 7796 4369 Blue 15
4 PM Mon 62 62 N 7 8184 7592 4165 Blue 14
5 PM Mon 60 60 N 7 7835 6864 3437 Blue 12
6 PM Mon 58 58 N 7 7423 5815 2388 Blue 10
7 PM Mon 55 55 N 7 5830 5322 1895 Blue 7
8 PM Mon 53 53 N 7 5575 4132 705 Blue 5
9 PM Mon 52 52 N 7 5383 3825 398 Blue 4
10 PM Mon 51 51 N 10 5000 3427 0 Blue 3
11 PM Mon 51 51 N 10 5000 3427 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Tue 50 50 N 10 4151 3427 0 Blue 2
1 AM Tue 50 50 N 10 4151 3427 0 Blue 2
2 AM Tue 50 50 N 10 4151 3427 0 Blue 2
3 AM Tue 50 50 N 10 4151 3427 0 Blue 2
4 AM Tue 50 50 NE 12 4151 3427 0 Blue 2
5 AM Tue 49 49 NE 12 3841 3427 0 Blue 1
6 AM Tue 49 49 NE 12 3841 3427 0 Blue 1
7 AM Tue 50 50 NE 12 4151 3427 0 Blue 2
8 AM Tue 53 53 NE 12 5575 4132 705 Blue 5
9 AM Tue 57 58 NE 12 7423 5815 2388 Blue 10
10 AM Tue 62 63 NE 7 8301 7796 4369 Blue 15
11 AM Tue 65 67 NE 7 9965 8441 5014 Blue 19
12 Noon Tue 67 69 NE 7 10402 9389 5962 Blue 21
1 PM Tue 68 70 NE 7 10543 9846 6419 Blue 22
2 PM Tue 69 71 NE 7 10684 10221 6794 Blue 23
3 PM Tue 69 70 NE 7 10543 9846 6419 Blue 22
4 PM Tue 67 67 NE 8 9965 8441 5014 Blue 19
5 PM Tue 64 64 NE 8 8546 8000 4573 Blue 16
6 PM Tue 60 60 NE 8 7835 6864 3437 Blue 12
7 PM Tue 56 56 NE 8 5957 5561 2134 Blue 8
8 PM Tue 53 53 NE 8 5575 4132 705 Blue 5
9 PM Tue 51 51 NE 8 5000 3427 0 Blue 3
10 PM Tue 50 50 NE 9 4151 3427 0 Blue 2
11 PM Tue 49 49 NE 9 3841 3427 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Wed 49 49 NE 9 3841 3427 0 Blue 1
1 AM Wed 48 48 NE 9 3502 3427 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 48 48 NE 9 3502 3427 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 47 47 NE 9 2005 3427 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 47 47 NE 8 2005 3427 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 47 47 NE 8 2005 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 48 48 NE 8 3502 3427 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 50 50 NE 8 4151 3427 0 Blue 2
8 AM Wed 55 55 NE 8 5830 5322 1895 Blue 7
9 AM Wed 60 61 NE 8 8040 7387 3960 Blue 13
10 AM Wed 64 65 S 5 9031 8160 4733 Blue 17
11 AM Wed 67 69 S 5 10402 9389 5962 Blue 21
12 Noon Wed 69 71 S 5 10684 10221 6794 Blue 23
1 PM Wed 70 72 S 5 10826 10362 6935 Blue 24
2 PM Wed 70 71 S 5 10684 10221 6794 Blue 23
3 PM Wed 68 69 S 5 10402 9389 5962 Blue 21
4 PM Wed 66 66 S 6 9504 8277 4850 Blue 18
5 PM Wed 64 64 S 6 8546 8000 4573 Blue 16
6 PM Wed 61 61 S 6 8040 7387 3960 Blue 13
7 PM Wed 58 58 S 6 7423 5815 2388 Blue 10
8 PM Wed 55 55 S 6 5830 5322 1895 Blue 7
9 PM Wed 52 52 S 6 5383 3825 398 Blue 4
10 PM Wed 50 50 S 8 4151 3427 0 Blue 2
11 PM Wed 48 48 S 8 3502 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 47 47 S 8 2005 3427 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 46 46 S 8 2005 3427 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 46 46 S 8 2005 3427 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 46 46 S 8 2005 3427 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 45 45 S 12 2005 3427 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 45 45 S 12 2005 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 44 44 S 12 2005 3427 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 44 44 S 12 2005 3427 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 43 43 S 12 2005 3427 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 43 43 S 12 2005 3427 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 44 44 W 18 2005 3427 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 46 46 W 18 2005 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 49 50 W 18 4151 3427 0 Blue 2
1 PM Thu 52 52 W 18 5383 3825 398 Blue 4
2 PM Thu 54 54 W 18 5703 4946 1519 Blue 6
3 PM Thu 56 56 W 18 5957 5561 2134 Blue 8
4 PM Thu 56 56 W 15 5957 5561 2134 Blue 8
5 PM Thu 55 55 W 15 5830 5322 1895 Blue 7
6 PM Thu 54 54 W 15 5703 4946 1519 Blue 6
7 PM Thu 51 51 W 15 5000 3427 0 Blue 3
8 PM Thu 49 49 W 15 3841 3427 0 Blue 1
9 PM Thu 47 47 W 15 2005 3427 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 45 45 N 10 2005 3427 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 43 43 N 10 2005 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 42 42 N 10 2005 3427 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 41 41 N 10 2005 3427 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 41 41 N 10 2005 3427 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 41 41 N 10 2005 3427 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 42 42 N 7 2005 3427 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 43 43 N 7 2005 3427 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 45 45 N 7 2005 3427 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 47 47 N 7 2005 3427 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 49 49 N 7 3841 3427 0 Blue 1
9 AM Fri 51 51 N 7 5000 3427 0 Blue 3
10 AM Fri 53 54 N 6 5703 4946 1519 Blue 6
11 AM Fri 55 56 N 6 5957 5561 2134 Blue 8
12 Noon Fri 57 59 N 6 7629 5941 2514 Blue 11
1 PM Fri 59 60 N 6 7835 6864 3437 Blue 12
2 PM Fri 60 61 N 6 8040 7387 3960 Blue 13
3 PM Fri 60 60 N 6 7835 6864 3437 Blue 12
4 PM Fri 60 60 N 9 7835 6864 3437 Blue 12
5 PM Fri 58 58 N 9 7423 5815 2388 Blue 10
6 PM Fri 56 56 N 9 5957 5561 2134 Blue 8
7 PM Fri 54 54 N 9 5703 4946 1519 Blue 6
8 PM Fri 51 51 N 9 5000 3427 0 Blue 3
9 PM Fri 49 49 N 9 3841 3427 0 Blue 1
10 PM Fri 46 46 N 8 2005 3427 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 45 45 N 8 2005 3427 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 44 44 N 8 2005 3427 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 43 43 N 8 2005 3427 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 43 43 N 8 2005 3427 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 44 44 N 8 2005 3427 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst