Detailed Predictions for: Henninger Flats
Launch Altitude (f): 3427
LZ Altitude (f): 1033
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Wed 48 48 SE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Wed 48 48 SE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Wed 51 51 SE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Wed 47 47 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Wed 50 50 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Wed 51 51 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Wed 53 53 SE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Wed 54 54 SE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Wed 55 55 SE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Wed 54 54 SE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Wed 55 55 SE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Wed 55 55 SE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Wed 53 53 S 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Wed 51 51 S 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Wed 51 51 S 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Wed 52 52 S 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Wed 52 52 S 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Wed 53 53 S 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Wed 52 52 S 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Wed 52 52 S 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Thu 52 52 S 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Thu 52 52 S 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Thu 52 52 S 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Thu 52 52 S 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Thu 52 52 S 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Thu 52 52 S 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 52 52 S 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 51 51 SE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 53 53 SE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 54 54 SE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 54 54 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 55 55 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 56 56 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 55 55 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 56 56 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 55 55 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 51 51 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 45 45 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 45 45 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 48 48 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 47 47 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 51 51 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 48 48 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 49 49 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 46 46 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 47 47 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 47 47 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 48 48 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 47 47 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 48 48 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 49 49 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 45 45 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 50 50 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 52 52 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 55 56 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 57 59 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 59 61 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 57 59 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 59 60 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 58 58 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 54 54 E 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 48 48 E 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 48 48 E 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 51 51 E 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 50 50 E 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 54 54 E 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 51 51 NE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 52 52 NE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 49 49 NE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 50 50 NE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 50 50 NE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 51 51 NE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 50 50 NE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 51 51 NE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 52 52 NE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 48 48 NE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 54 54 NE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 57 58 NE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 61 62 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 64 66 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 66 68 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 63 65 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 66 67 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 64 65 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 58 58 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 48 48 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 48 48 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 52 52 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 51 51 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 57 57 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 52 52 NE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 54 54 NE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 49 49 NE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 50 50 NE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 50 50 NE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 52 52 NE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 51 51 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 52 52 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 53 53 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 47 47 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 54 54 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 57 57 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 61 62 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 65 67 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 67 69 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 64 66 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 67 68 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 65 65 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 59 59 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 49 49 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 49 49 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 53 53 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 52 52 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 58 58 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 53 53 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 55 55 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 50 50 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 51 51 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 51 51 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 53 53 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 52 52 NE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 53 53 NE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 54 54 NE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 48 48 NE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 53 53 NE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 55 56 NE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 58 60 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 60 62 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 62 64 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 60 62 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 62 64 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 61 62 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 56 56 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 48 48 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 48 48 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 51 51 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 50 50 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 55 55 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 51 51 NE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 53 53 NE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 49 49 NE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 49 49 NE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 49 49 NE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 51 51 NE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst