Detailed Predictions for: Ord
Launch Altitude (f): 4753
LZ Altitude (f): 1614
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

20 JUL 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Fri 73 73 SE 3 4683 4753 0 Blue 3
6 AM Fri 73 73 SE 3 4683 4753 0 Blue 3
7 AM Fri 74 74 SE 2 5020 4753 0 Blue 4
8 AM Fri 76 77 W 2 5878 5012 259 Blue 7
9 AM Fri 79 81 W 2 6841 6143 1390 Blue 11
10 AM Fri 81 85 NW 3 8890 7076 2323 Blue 15
11 AM Fri 83 86 NW 5 9234 7767 3014 Blue 16
12 Noon Fri 83 87 NW 5 9575 8424 3671 Blue 17
1 PM Fri 84 88 W 5 9917 8838 4085 Blue 18
2 PM Fri 83 88 S 18 9917 8838 4085 Blue 18
3 PM Fri 82 86 S 20 9234 7767 3014 Blue 16
4 PM Fri 81 84 S 20 8512 6829 2076 Blue 14
5 PM Fri 80 82 S 22 7142 6422 1669 Blue 12
6 PM Fri 79 79 S 22 6441 5581 828 Blue 9
7 PM Fri 78 78 S 22 6160 5297 544 Blue 8
8 PM Fri 77 77 S 18 5878 5012 259 Blue 7
9 PM Fri 77 77 S 18 5878 5012 259 Blue 7
10 PM Fri 77 77 S 17 5878 5012 259 Blue 7
11 PM Fri 77 77 S 10 5878 5012 259 Blue 7
12 Midnight Sat 76 76 SW 9 5593 4753 0 Blue 6
1 AM Sat 75 75 SW 9 5307 4753 0 Blue 5
2 AM Sat 74 74 SW 7 5020 4753 0 Blue 4
3 AM Sat 73 73 SW 6 4683 4753 0 Blue 3
4 AM Sat 72 72 SW 5 4520 4753 0 Blue 2
5 AM Sat 72 72 S 3 4520 4753 0 Blue 2
6 AM Sat 72 72 S 3 4520 4753 0 Blue 2
7 AM Sat 73 73 S 2 4683 4753 0 Blue 3
8 AM Sat 75 76 W 2 5593 4753 0 Blue 6
9 AM Sat 77 79 W 2 6441 5581 828 Blue 9
10 AM Sat 80 84 W 3 8512 6829 2076 Blue 14
11 AM Sat 82 87 W 5 9575 8424 3671 Blue 17
12 Noon Sat 83 89 SW 8 10268 9180 4427 Blue 19
1 PM Sat 84 90 SW 9 10622 9517 4764 Blue 20
2 PM Sat 83 89 S 16 10268 9180 4427 Blue 19
3 PM Sat 84 89 S 17 10268 9180 4427 Blue 19
4 PM Sat 83 86 S 17 9234 7767 3014 Blue 16
5 PM Sat 82 84 S 21 8512 6829 2076 Blue 14
6 PM Sat 81 82 S 21 7142 6422 1669 Blue 12
7 PM Sat 80 80 S 21 6695 5863 1110 Blue 10
8 PM Sat 78 78 S 20 6160 5297 544 Blue 8
9 PM Sat 78 78 S 18 6160 5297 544 Blue 8
10 PM Sat 77 77 S 17 5878 5012 259 Blue 7
11 PM Sat 77 77 SW 13 5878 5012 259 Blue 7
12 Midnight Sun 77 77 SW 12 5878 5012 259 Blue 7
1 AM Sun 76 76 SW 10 5593 4753 0 Blue 6
2 AM Sun 75 75 SW 7 5307 4753 0 Blue 5
3 AM Sun 74 74 SW 6 5020 4753 0 Blue 4
4 AM Sun 73 73 W 5 4683 4753 0 Blue 3
5 AM Sun 73 73 SW 3 4683 4753 0 Blue 3
6 AM Sun 73 73 W 3 4683 4753 0 Blue 3
7 AM Sun 74 74 W 2 5020 4753 0 Blue 4
8 AM Sun 76 77 W 3 5878 5012 259 Blue 7
9 AM Sun 78 80 W 3 6695 5863 1110 Blue 10
10 AM Sun 81 85 W 3 8890 7076 2323 Blue 15
11 AM Sun 84 90 NW 5 10622 9517 4764 Blue 20
12 Noon Sun 86 93 W 6 11780 10549 5796 White 23
1 PM Sun 87 94 W 8 11992 10902 6149 White 24
2 PM Sun 87 94 SW 10 11992 10902 6149 White 24
3 PM Sun 88 94 SW 9 11992 10902 6149 White 24
4 PM Sun 87 91 SW 10 10978 9853 5100 Blue 21
5 PM Sun 86 88 S 14 9917 8838 4085 Blue 18
6 PM Sun 85 86 S 15 9234 7767 3014 Blue 16
7 PM Sun 84 84 S 15 8512 6829 2076 Blue 14
8 PM Sun 83 83 S 14 7845 6684 1931 Blue 13
9 PM Sun 82 82 SW 13 7142 6422 1669 Blue 12
10 PM Sun 81 81 W 12 6841 6143 1390 Blue 11
11 PM Sun 80 80 W 9 6695 5863 1110 Blue 10
12 Midnight Mon 79 79 W 9 6441 5581 828 Blue 9
1 AM Mon 78 78 W 9 6160 5297 544 Blue 8
2 AM Mon 77 77 W 8 5878 5012 259 Blue 7
3 AM Mon 76 76 W 7 5593 4753 0 Blue 6
4 AM Mon 75 75 W 6 5307 4753 0 Blue 5
5 AM Mon 75 75 W 5 5307 4753 0 Blue 5
6 AM Mon 75 75 W 5 5307 4753 0 Blue 5
7 AM Mon 76 76 W 5 5593 4753 0 Blue 6
8 AM Mon 77 78 NW 2 6160 5297 544 Blue 8
9 AM Mon 80 82 NW 2 7142 6422 1669 Blue 12
10 AM Mon 84 88 NW 2 9917 8838 4085 Blue 18
11 AM Mon 87 93 N 6 11780 10549 5796 White 23
12 Noon Mon 91 98 N 6 12833 12833 8080 White 28
1 PM Mon 94 101 N 6 13457 13457 8704 White 31
2 PM Mon 96 103 NE 2 13872 13872 9119 White 33
3 PM Mon 97 102 NE 2 13665 13665 8912 White 32
4 PM Mon 97 101 NE 2 13457 13457 8704 White 31
5 PM Mon 95 97 SW 12 12624 12624 7871 White 27
6 PM Mon 93 94 SW 12 11992 10902 6149 White 24
7 PM Mon 90 90 SW 12 10622 9517 4764 Blue 20
8 PM Mon 87 87 S 14 9575 8424 3671 Blue 17
9 PM Mon 86 86 S 14 9234 7767 3014 Blue 16
10 PM Mon 85 85 S 14 8890 7076 2323 Blue 15
11 PM Mon 84 84 W 9 8512 6829 2076 Blue 14
12 Midnight Tue 82 82 W 9 7142 6422 1669 Blue 12
1 AM Tue 81 81 W 9 6841 6143 1390 Blue 11
2 AM Tue 80 80 W 7 6695 5863 1110 Blue 10
3 AM Tue 79 79 W 7 6441 5581 828 Blue 9
4 AM Tue 78 78 W 7 6160 5297 544 Blue 8
5 AM Tue 78 78 W 5 6160 5297 544 Blue 8
6 AM Tue 78 78 W 5 6160 5297 544 Blue 8
7 AM Tue 79 79 W 5 6441 5581 828 Blue 9
8 AM Tue 81 82 NW 2 7142 6422 1669 Blue 12
9 AM Tue 84 86 NW 2 9234 7767 3014 Blue 16
10 AM Tue 88 92 NW 2 11568 10201 5448 White 22
11 AM Tue 92 97 N 5 12624 12624 7871 White 27
12 Noon Tue 95 102 N 5 13665 13665 8912 White 32
1 PM Tue 98 105 N 5 14281 14281 9528 White 35
2 PM Tue 100 106 W 5 14483 14483 9730 White 36
3 PM Tue 100 105 W 5 14281 14281 9528 White 35
4 PM Tue 98 102 W 5 13665 13665 8912 White 32
5 PM Tue 96 98 SW 15 12833 12833 8080 White 28
6 PM Tue 94 95 SW 15 12204 11285 6532 White 25
7 PM Tue 91 91 SW 15 10978 9853 5100 Blue 21
8 PM Tue 89 89 S 20 10268 9180 4427 Blue 19
9 PM Tue 88 88 S 20 9917 8838 4085 Blue 18
10 PM Tue 88 88 S 20 9917 8838 4085 Blue 18
11 PM Tue 86 86 W 10 9234 7767 3014 Blue 16
12 Midnight Wed 85 85 W 10 8890 7076 2323 Blue 15
1 AM Wed 83 83 W 10 7845 6684 1931 Blue 13
2 AM Wed 81 81 W 7 6841 6143 1390 Blue 11
3 AM Wed 80 80 W 7 6695 5863 1110 Blue 10
4 AM Wed 79 79 W 7 6441 5581 828 Blue 9
5 AM Wed 79 79 W 5 6441 5581 828 Blue 9
6 AM Wed 79 79 W 5 6441 5581 828 Blue 9
7 AM Wed 80 80 W 5 6695 5863 1110 Blue 10
8 AM Wed 82 83 NW 2 7845 6684 1931 Blue 13
9 AM Wed 85 87 NW 2 9575 8424 3671 Blue 17
10 AM Wed 89 93 NW 2 11780 10549 5796 White 23
11 AM Wed 92 98 N 5 12833 12833 8080 White 28
12 Noon Wed 96 103 N 5 13872 13872 9119 White 33
1 PM Wed 98 105 N 5 14281 14281 9528 White 35
2 PM Wed 99 106 SW 13 14483 14483 9730 White 36
3 PM Wed 99 104 SW 13 14078 14078 9325 White 34
4 PM Wed 97 101 SW 13 13457 13457 8704 White 31
5 PM Wed 95 97 SW 17 12624 12624 7871 White 27
6 PM Wed 92 93 SW 17 11780 10549 5796 White 23
7 PM Wed 90 90 SW 17 10622 9517 4764 Blue 20
8 PM Wed 89 89 S 18 10268 9180 4427 Blue 19
9 PM Wed 87 87 S 18 9575 8424 3671 Blue 17
10 PM Wed 86 86 S 18 9234 7767 3014 Blue 16
11 PM Wed 85 85 W 10 8890 7076 2323 Blue 15
12 Midnight Thu 84 84 W 10 8512 6829 2076 Blue 14
1 AM Thu 83 83 W 10 7845 6684 1931 Blue 13
2 AM Thu 81 81 W 8 6841 6143 1390 Blue 11
3 AM Thu 80 80 W 8 6695 5863 1110 Blue 10
4 AM Thu 79 79 W 8 6441 5581 828 Blue 9

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst