Detailed Predictions for: Ord
Launch Altitude (f): 4753
LZ Altitude (f): 1614
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

18 MAY 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 45 45 W 3 4078 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 48 48 W 3 4078 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 49 49 W 2 4102 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 51 52 W 2 4598 4753 0 Blue 1
9 AM Sat 56 59 W 2 6195 5324 571 Blue 8
10 AM Sat 60 65 W 3 7358 7035 2282 Blue 14
11 AM Sat 62 66 W 6 7545 7139 2386 Blue 15
12 Noon Sat 66 71 SW 9 10496 8938 4185 Blue 20
1 PM Sat 66 71 SW 13 10496 8938 4185 Blue 20
2 PM Sat 66 71 S 20 10496 8938 4185 Blue 20
3 PM Sat 64 68 S 22 9050 7348 2595 Blue 17
4 PM Sat 62 64 S 23 7254 6931 2178 Blue 13
5 PM Sat 59 60 S 25 6642 5465 712 Blue 9
6 PM Sat 56 56 S 26 5329 4954 201 Blue 5
7 PM Sat 53 53 S 26 4963 4753 0 Blue 2
8 PM Sat 52 52 S 26 4598 4753 0 Blue 1
9 PM Sat 51 51 S 26 4202 4753 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 50 50 S 26 4152 4753 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 49 49 S 26 4102 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 48 48 S 28 4078 4753 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 47 47 S 30 4078 4753 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 47 47 S 29 4078 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 46 46 S 28 4078 4753 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 46 46 S 25 4078 4753 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 43 43 S 24 4078 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 44 44 S 23 4078 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 45 45 S 23 4078 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 46 47 S 22 4078 4753 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 49 51 S 22 4202 4753 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 51 54 SW 22 5104 4753 0 Blue 3
11 AM Sun 52 56 SW 22 5329 4954 201 Blue 5
12 Noon Sun 54 59 SW 23 6195 5324 571 Blue 8
1 PM Sun 54 59 SW 23 6195 5324 571 Blue 8
2 PM Sun 54 59 SW 24 6195 5324 571 Blue 8
3 PM Sun 53 57 SW 25 5471 5100 347 Blue 6
4 PM Sun 52 54 SW 26 5104 4753 0 Blue 3
5 PM Sun 50 51 SW 26 4202 4753 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 48 48 SW 26 4078 4753 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 47 47 SW 25 4078 4753 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 46 46 SW 24 4078 4753 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 46 46 SW 22 4078 4753 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 45 45 SW 20 4078 4753 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 45 45 SW 17 4078 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 44 44 SW 15 4078 4753 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 43 43 W 15 4078 4753 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 43 43 W 14 4078 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 43 43 W 14 4078 4753 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 43 43 W 14 4078 4753 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 41 41 W 14 4078 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 43 43 W 13 4078 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 44 44 W 13 4078 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 46 47 W 12 4078 4753 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 51 53 W 12 4963 4753 0 Blue 2
10 AM Mon 54 58 W 12 5738 5212 459 Blue 7
11 AM Mon 56 62 W 12 7045 6165 1412 Blue 11
12 Noon Mon 60 67 SW 14 8322 7243 2490 Blue 16
1 PM Mon 60 67 SW 16 8322 7243 2490 Blue 16
2 PM Mon 60 67 SW 20 8322 7243 2490 Blue 16
3 PM Mon 59 64 SW 23 7254 6931 2178 Blue 13
4 PM Mon 57 60 SW 26 6642 5465 712 Blue 9
5 PM Mon 56 58 SW 29 5738 5212 459 Blue 7
6 PM Mon 53 53 SW 29 4963 4753 0 Blue 2
7 PM Mon 51 51 S 29 4202 4753 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 50 50 S 29 4152 4753 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 50 50 SW 28 4152 4753 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 49 49 SW 26 4102 4753 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 48 48 SW 25 4078 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 48 48 SW 25 4078 4753 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 47 47 SW 25 4078 4753 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 47 47 SW 24 4078 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 46 46 SW 23 4078 4753 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 46 46 SW 21 4078 4753 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 44 44 SW 20 4078 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 46 46 SW 20 4078 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 46 46 SW 20 4078 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 47 48 SW 16 4078 4753 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 50 52 SW 16 4598 4753 0 Blue 1
10 AM Tue 53 57 SW 16 5471 5100 347 Blue 6
11 AM Tue 54 57 SW 22 5471 5100 347 Blue 6
12 Noon Tue 56 59 SW 22 6195 5324 571 Blue 8
1 PM Tue 57 61 SW 22 6941 5715 962 Blue 10
2 PM Tue 56 59 SW 24 6195 5324 571 Blue 8
3 PM Tue 55 57 SW 24 5471 5100 347 Blue 6
4 PM Tue 53 55 SW 24 5216 4753 0 Blue 4
5 PM Tue 52 53 W 23 4963 4753 0 Blue 2
6 PM Tue 49 49 W 23 4102 4753 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 47 47 W 23 4078 4753 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 46 46 NW 21 4078 4753 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 46 46 NW 21 4078 4753 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 45 45 NW 21 4078 4753 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 44 44 NW 15 4078 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 44 44 NW 15 4078 4753 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 43 43 NW 15 4078 4753 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 43 43 W 13 4078 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 42 42 W 13 4078 4753 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 42 42 W 13 4078 4753 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 40 40 NW 12 4078 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 42 42 NW 12 4078 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 44 44 NW 12 4078 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 46 46 NW 7 4078 4753 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 51 52 NW 7 4598 4753 0 Blue 1
10 AM Wed 55 57 NW 7 5471 5100 347 Blue 6
11 AM Wed 57 61 NW 9 6941 5715 962 Blue 10
12 Noon Wed 61 66 NW 9 7545 7139 2386 Blue 15
1 PM Wed 62 67 NW 9 8322 7243 2490 Blue 16
2 PM Wed 61 66 NW 8 7545 7139 2386 Blue 15
3 PM Wed 60 64 NW 8 7254 6931 2178 Blue 13
4 PM Wed 59 61 NW 8 6941 5715 962 Blue 10
5 PM Wed 57 58 SW 13 5738 5212 459 Blue 7
6 PM Wed 54 54 SW 13 5104 4753 0 Blue 3
7 PM Wed 52 52 SW 13 4598 4753 0 Blue 1
8 PM Wed 52 52 SW 17 4598 4753 0 Blue 1
9 PM Wed 52 52 SW 17 4598 4753 0 Blue 1
10 PM Wed 51 51 SW 17 4202 4753 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 50 50 W 10 4152 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 49 49 W 10 4102 4753 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 49 49 W 10 4102 4753 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 49 49 NW 7 4102 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 48 48 NW 7 4078 4753 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 48 48 NW 7 4078 4753 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 46 46 N 5 4078 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 48 48 N 5 4078 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 50 50 N 5 4152 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 51 52 NE 5 4598 4753 0 Blue 1
9 AM Thu 56 58 NE 5 5738 5212 459 Blue 7
10 AM Thu 60 64 NE 5 7254 6931 2178 Blue 13
11 AM Thu 62 67 N 9 8322 7243 2490 Blue 16
12 Noon Thu 66 72 N 9 10810 9615 4862 Blue 21
1 PM Thu 67 73 N 9 11120 10117 5364 Blue 22
2 PM Thu 66 71 N 7 10496 8938 4185 Blue 20
3 PM Thu 65 69 N 7 9736 7458 2705 Blue 18
4 PM Thu 63 66 N 7 7545 7139 2386 Blue 15
5 PM Thu 61 62 S 16 7045 6165 1412 Blue 11
6 PM Thu 58 58 S 16 5738 5212 459 Blue 7
7 PM Thu 56 56 S 16 5329 4954 201 Blue 5
8 PM Thu 56 56 SW 9 5329 4954 201 Blue 5
9 PM Thu 55 55 SW 9 5216 4753 0 Blue 4
10 PM Thu 54 54 SW 9 5104 4753 0 Blue 3
11 PM Thu 54 54 SW 13 5104 4753 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Fri 53 53 SW 13 4963 4753 0 Blue 2
1 AM Fri 52 52 SW 13 4598 4753 0 Blue 1
2 AM Fri 52 52 W 9 4598 4753 0 Blue 1
3 AM Fri 52 52 W 9 4598 4753 0 Blue 1
4 AM Fri 51 51 W 9 4202 4753 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst