Detailed Predictions for: Ord
Launch Altitude (f): 4753
LZ Altitude (f): 1614
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

18 SEP 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Wed 54 54 SW 5 3589 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 55 55 SW 5 3589 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 57 57 SW 5 3589 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 60 60 SW 6 3589 4753 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 63 64 SW 7 3906 4753 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 67 70 SW 9 5190 4753 0 Blue 2
11 AM Wed 71 76 SW 12 6937 5564 811 Blue 8
12 Noon Wed 74 80 SW 12 8876 7415 2662 Blue 12
1 PM Wed 75 81 SW 14 9094 7926 3173 Blue 13
2 PM Wed 75 80 SW 16 8876 7415 2662 Blue 12
3 PM Wed 75 79 S 16 8491 6890 2137 Blue 11
4 PM Wed 74 77 S 17 7470 5899 1146 Blue 9
5 PM Wed 71 72 S 18 5404 5081 328 Blue 4
6 PM Wed 68 68 S 18 4951 4753 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 65 65 S 20 4173 4753 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 63 63 S 17 3637 4753 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 61 61 S 17 3589 4753 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 60 60 S 15 3589 4753 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 59 59 S 14 3589 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 58 58 S 13 3589 4753 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 57 57 S 13 3589 4753 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 56 56 SW 12 3589 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 55 55 SW 12 3589 4753 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 54 54 SW 12 3589 4753 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 53 53 SW 10 3589 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 53 53 SW 10 3589 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 54 54 SW 9 3589 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 55 55 SW 10 3589 4753 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 58 59 SW 12 3589 4753 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 60 63 SW 14 3637 4753 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 64 69 SW 15 5084 4753 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Thu 66 72 SW 16 5404 5081 328 Blue 4
1 PM Thu 69 75 SW 16 6389 5400 647 Blue 7
2 PM Thu 70 76 SW 15 6937 5564 811 Blue 8
3 PM Thu 70 74 SW 16 5918 5293 540 Blue 6
4 PM Thu 70 73 SW 16 5580 5187 434 Blue 5
5 PM Thu 69 70 S 16 5190 4753 0 Blue 2
6 PM Thu 66 66 SW 15 4439 4753 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 62 62 SW 15 3589 4753 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 58 58 SW 14 3589 4753 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 55 55 SW 13 3589 4753 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 53 53 SW 10 3589 4753 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 52 52 SW 9 3589 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 51 51 SW 8 3589 4753 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 51 51 W 7 3589 4753 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 50 50 W 6 3589 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 49 49 NW 6 3589 4753 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 48 48 NW 5 3589 4753 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 47 47 N 5 3589 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 47 47 N 3 3589 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 48 48 N 5 3589 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 50 50 N 5 3589 4753 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 52 54 NE 7 3589 4753 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 56 59 NE 9 3589 4753 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 60 65 NE 10 4173 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 64 70 NE 12 5190 4753 0 Blue 2
1 PM Fri 68 74 NE 10 5918 5293 540 Blue 6
2 PM Fri 71 77 NE 10 7470 5899 1146 Blue 9
3 PM Fri 74 78 NE 10 7987 6350 1597 Blue 10
4 PM Fri 76 79 NE 9 8491 6890 2137 Blue 11
5 PM Fri 75 76 NE 9 6937 5564 811 Blue 8
6 PM Fri 75 75 NE 9 6389 5400 647 Blue 7
7 PM Fri 74 74 NE 8 5918 5293 540 Blue 6
8 PM Fri 72 72 NE 8 5404 5081 328 Blue 4
9 PM Fri 70 70 NE 7 5190 4753 0 Blue 2
10 PM Fri 69 69 NE 6 5084 4753 0 Blue 1
11 PM Fri 67 67 NE 5 4704 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 64 64 NE 3 3906 4753 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 61 61 NW 3 3589 4753 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 58 58 W 3 3589 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 55 55 NW 2 3589 4753 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 54 54 N 2 3589 4753 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 54 54 NE 2 3589 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 56 56 NE 2 3589 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 58 58 NE 2 3589 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 61 61 E 3 3589 4753 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 64 65 E 3 4173 4753 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 67 70 E 3 5190 4753 0 Blue 2
11 AM Sat 70 75 NE 8 6389 5400 647 Blue 7
12 Noon Sat 73 79 NE 8 8491 6890 2137 Blue 11
1 PM Sat 75 81 NE 8 9094 7926 3173 Blue 13
2 PM Sat 77 83 NE 8 9628 8843 4090 Blue 15
3 PM Sat 79 83 NE 8 9628 8843 4090 Blue 15
4 PM Sat 79 82 NE 8 9312 8423 3670 Blue 14
5 PM Sat 80 81 E 8 9094 7926 3173 Blue 13
6 PM Sat 78 78 E 8 7987 6350 1597 Blue 10
7 PM Sat 76 76 E 8 6937 5564 811 Blue 8
8 PM Sat 73 73 S 8 5580 5187 434 Blue 5
9 PM Sat 71 71 S 8 5297 4947 194 Blue 3
10 PM Sat 69 69 S 8 5084 4753 0 Blue 1
11 PM Sat 68 68 S 6 4951 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 66 66 S 6 4439 4753 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 64 64 S 6 3906 4753 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 61 61 SW 3 3589 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 59 59 SW 3 3589 4753 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 58 58 SW 3 3589 4753 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 58 58 S 2 3589 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 61 61 S 2 3589 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 65 65 S 2 4173 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 70 70 S 3 5190 4753 0 Blue 2
9 AM Sun 74 75 S 3 6389 5400 647 Blue 7
10 AM Sun 77 80 S 3 8876 7415 2662 Blue 12
11 AM Sun 79 84 S 8 10232 9060 4307 Blue 16
12 Noon Sun 81 87 S 8 12135 10175 5422 Blue 19
1 PM Sun 81 87 S 8 12135 10175 5422 Blue 19
2 PM Sun 82 87 SW 15 12135 10175 5422 Blue 19
3 PM Sun 81 85 SW 15 11584 9276 4523 Blue 17
4 PM Sun 79 81 SW 15 9094 7926 3173 Blue 13
5 PM Sun 76 77 SW 21 7470 5899 1146 Blue 9
6 PM Sun 73 73 SW 21 5580 5187 434 Blue 5
7 PM Sun 70 70 SW 21 5190 4753 0 Blue 2
8 PM Sun 68 68 S 22 4951 4753 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 68 68 S 22 4951 4753 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 68 68 S 22 4951 4753 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 68 68 S 20 4951 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 67 67 S 20 4704 4753 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 66 66 S 20 4439 4753 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 64 64 S 17 3906 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 62 62 S 17 3589 4753 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 61 61 S 17 3589 4753 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 61 61 S 20 3589 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 60 60 S 20 3589 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 59 59 S 20 3589 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 61 61 S 20 3589 4753 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 59 60 S 20 3589 4753 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 57 60 S 20 3589 4753 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 58 62 SW 15 3589 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 61 66 SW 15 4439 4753 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 66 71 SW 15 5297 4947 194 Blue 3
2 PM Mon 72 76 SW 15 6937 5564 811 Blue 8
3 PM Mon 75 78 SW 15 7987 6350 1597 Blue 10
4 PM Mon 75 77 SW 15 7470 5899 1146 Blue 9
5 PM Mon 74 75 S 17 6389 5400 647 Blue 7
6 PM Mon 70 70 S 17 5190 4753 0 Blue 2
7 PM Mon 66 66 S 17 4439 4753 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 62 62 S 15 3589 4753 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 61 61 S 15 3589 4753 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 62 62 S 15 3589 4753 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 63 63 SW 9 3637 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 62 62 SW 9 3589 4753 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 60 60 SW 9 3589 4753 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 58 58 W 6 3589 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 56 56 W 6 3589 4753 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 55 55 W 6 3589 4753 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst