Detailed Predictions for: Ord
Launch Altitude (f): 4753
LZ Altitude (f): 1614
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Wed 40 40 S 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Wed 40 40 S 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Wed 40 40 S 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Wed 40 40 S 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Wed 40 40 S 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Wed 42 42 S 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Wed 44 44 S 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Wed 45 46 S 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Wed 46 47 S 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Wed 48 49 S 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Wed 47 47 S 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Wed 48 48 S 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Wed 48 48 S 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Wed 47 47 S 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Wed 47 47 S 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Wed 47 47 S 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Wed 47 47 S 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Wed 47 47 S 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Wed 47 47 S 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Wed 46 46 S 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Thu 46 46 S 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Thu 46 46 S 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Thu 46 46 S 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Thu 45 45 S 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Thu 45 45 S 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Thu 45 45 S 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 45 45 S 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 45 45 S 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 45 45 S 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 46 46 S 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 47 47 S 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 48 48 S 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 48 48 S 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 49 49 S 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 48 48 S 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 49 49 S 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 47 47 SW 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 45 45 SW 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 45 45 SW 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 44 44 S 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 44 44 S 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 44 44 S 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 43 43 S 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 43 43 SW 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 43 43 SW 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 41 41 SW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 39 39 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 39 39 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 37 37 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 38 38 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 37 37 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 37 37 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 38 38 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 39 39 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 41 42 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 43 45 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 44 46 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 46 48 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 45 46 N 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 46 46 N 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 45 45 N 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 44 44 N 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 44 44 N 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 43 43 N 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 43 43 NE 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 43 43 NE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 43 43 NE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 42 42 NE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 42 42 NE 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 41 41 NE 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 40 40 NE 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 40 40 NE 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 39 39 E 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 39 39 E 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 39 39 E 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 39 39 NE 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 40 40 NE 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 42 43 NE 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 45 46 NE 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 47 49 NE 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 49 51 NE 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 51 53 NE 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 51 52 NE 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 51 51 NE 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 49 49 NE 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 48 48 NE 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 47 47 NE 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 47 47 E 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 47 47 E 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 46 46 E 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 46 46 E 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 46 46 E 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 45 45 E 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 43 43 E 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 42 42 E 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 42 42 E 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 40 40 E 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 41 41 E 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 40 40 E 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 40 40 E 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 41 41 E 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 44 44 E 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 47 48 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 50 51 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 52 54 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 55 56 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 55 56 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 55 55 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 52 52 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 50 50 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 50 50 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 49 49 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 49 49 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 48 48 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 48 48 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 47 47 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 46 46 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 44 44 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 42 42 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 41 41 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 39 39 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 40 40 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 39 39 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 39 39 E 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 40 40 E 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 41 41 E 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 43 44 NE 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 45 47 NE 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 46 48 NE 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 48 50 NE 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 48 49 NE 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 48 48 NE 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 46 46 NE 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 44 44 NE 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 44 44 NE 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 43 43 NE 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 43 43 NE 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 42 42 NE 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 42 42 NE 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 42 42 NE 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 41 41 NE 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 39 39 E 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 38 38 E 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 37 37 E 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst