Detailed Predictions for: Ord
Launch Altitude (f): 4753
LZ Altitude (f): 1614
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

21 JAN 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Sun 28 28 N 2 3533 4753 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 27 27 N 1 3533 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 27 27 N 1 3533 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 27 27 NE 1 3533 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 29 29 N 1 3533 4753 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 32 33 N 2 3533 4753 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 34 35 N 2 3533 4753 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 37 39 NE 6 3967 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 40 42 NE 6 5514 4753 0 Blue 2
1 PM Sun 42 44 NE 7 5774 5123 370 Blue 4
2 PM Sun 44 45 NE 6 5905 5508 755 Blue 5
3 PM Sun 45 45 N 5 5905 5508 755 Blue 5
4 PM Sun 44 44 N 5 5774 5123 370 Blue 4
5 PM Sun 44 44 N 5 5774 5123 370 Blue 4
6 PM Sun 42 42 N 5 5514 4753 0 Blue 2
7 PM Sun 41 41 NE 1 5133 4753 0 Blue 1
8 PM Sun 40 40 NE 1 4285 4753 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 39 39 E 1 3967 4753 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 38 38 NE 1 3646 4753 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 37 37 NE 1 3533 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 36 36 NE 1 3533 4753 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 36 36 N 1 3533 4753 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 35 35 N 1 3533 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 35 35 NE 1 3533 4753 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 34 34 NE 1 3533 4753 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 34 34 NE 1 3533 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 33 33 N 1 3533 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 33 33 NE 1 3533 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 34 34 NE 1 3533 4753 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 36 36 NE 2 3533 4753 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 39 40 N 6 4285 4753 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 42 44 N 6 5774 5123 370 Blue 4
12 Noon Mon 45 47 NE 7 7355 5767 1014 Blue 7
1 PM Mon 47 49 NE 8 7779 6506 1753 Blue 9
2 PM Mon 49 50 NE 8 7990 7332 2579 Blue 10
3 PM Mon 49 49 NE 9 7779 6506 1753 Blue 9
4 PM Mon 50 50 N 8 7990 7332 2579 Blue 10
5 PM Mon 49 49 N 8 7779 6506 1753 Blue 9
6 PM Mon 47 47 NE 7 7355 5767 1014 Blue 7
7 PM Mon 46 46 NE 6 6608 5637 884 Blue 6
8 PM Mon 45 45 NE 6 5905 5508 755 Blue 5
9 PM Mon 44 44 NE 6 5774 5123 370 Blue 4
10 PM Mon 44 44 NE 5 5774 5123 370 Blue 4
11 PM Mon 42 42 NE 5 5514 4753 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Tue 41 41 NE 3 5133 4753 0 Blue 1
1 AM Tue 40 40 N 2 4285 4753 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 40 40 NE 2 4285 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 40 40 NE 3 4285 4753 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 40 40 NE 5 4285 4753 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 39 39 NE 6 3967 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 38 38 NE 6 3646 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 38 38 NE 5 3646 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 39 39 NE 6 3967 4753 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 40 41 NE 6 5133 4753 0 Blue 1
10 AM Tue 43 44 NE 7 5774 5123 370 Blue 4
11 AM Tue 46 48 NE 8 7568 5897 1144 Blue 8
12 Noon Tue 50 52 NE 9 8279 7754 3001 Blue 12
1 PM Tue 53 55 NE 12 9461 8262 3509 Blue 15
2 PM Tue 54 55 NE 13 9461 8262 3509 Blue 15
3 PM Tue 54 55 NE 13 9461 8262 3509 Blue 15
4 PM Tue 55 55 NE 12 9461 8262 3509 Blue 15
5 PM Tue 54 54 NE 12 8969 8142 3389 Blue 14
6 PM Tue 53 53 NE 12 8464 7963 3210 Blue 13
7 PM Tue 51 51 E 12 8158 7543 2790 Blue 11
8 PM Tue 50 50 E 12 7990 7332 2579 Blue 10
9 PM Tue 49 49 E 12 7779 6506 1753 Blue 9
10 PM Tue 48 48 E 12 7568 5897 1144 Blue 8
11 PM Tue 47 47 E 12 7355 5767 1014 Blue 7
12 Midnight Wed 46 46 E 10 6608 5637 884 Blue 6
1 AM Wed 45 45 E 9 5905 5508 755 Blue 5
2 AM Wed 44 44 E 10 5774 5123 370 Blue 4
3 AM Wed 42 42 E 7 5514 4753 0 Blue 2
4 AM Wed 41 41 E 6 5133 4753 0 Blue 1
5 AM Wed 41 41 E 6 5133 4753 0 Blue 1
6 AM Wed 41 41 E 6 5133 4753 0 Blue 1
7 AM Wed 42 42 E 5 5514 4753 0 Blue 2
8 AM Wed 44 44 E 5 5774 5123 370 Blue 4
9 AM Wed 47 48 E 5 7568 5897 1144 Blue 8
10 AM Wed 49 50 E 3 7990 7332 2579 Blue 10
11 AM Wed 52 54 E 3 8969 8142 3389 Blue 14
12 Noon Wed 55 57 E 3 10257 8889 4136 Blue 17
1 PM Wed 57 59 SE 7 10547 9848 5095 Blue 19
2 PM Wed 58 59 SE 7 10547 9848 5095 Blue 19
3 PM Wed 58 59 SE 7 10547 9848 5095 Blue 19
4 PM Wed 57 57 S 12 10257 8889 4136 Blue 17
5 PM Wed 56 56 S 12 9940 8391 3638 Blue 16
6 PM Wed 54 54 S 12 8969 8142 3389 Blue 14
7 PM Wed 52 52 S 15 8279 7754 3001 Blue 12
8 PM Wed 52 52 S 15 8279 7754 3001 Blue 12
9 PM Wed 51 51 S 15 8158 7543 2790 Blue 11
10 PM Wed 51 51 S 17 8158 7543 2790 Blue 11
11 PM Wed 50 50 S 17 7990 7332 2579 Blue 10
12 Midnight Thu 50 50 S 17 7990 7332 2579 Blue 10
1 AM Thu 49 49 S 17 7779 6506 1753 Blue 9
2 AM Thu 48 48 S 17 7568 5897 1144 Blue 8
3 AM Thu 47 47 S 17 7355 5767 1014 Blue 7
4 AM Thu 46 46 S 16 6608 5637 884 Blue 6
5 AM Thu 44 44 S 16 5774 5123 370 Blue 4
6 AM Thu 44 44 S 16 5774 5123 370 Blue 4
7 AM Thu 50 50 S 16 7990 7332 2579 Blue 10
8 AM Thu 46 46 S 16 6608 5637 884 Blue 6
9 AM Thu 42 42 S 16 5514 4753 0 Blue 2
10 AM Thu 48 49 SW 16 7779 6506 1753 Blue 9
11 AM Thu 46 47 SW 16 7355 5767 1014 Blue 7
12 Noon Thu 44 45 SW 16 5905 5508 755 Blue 5
1 PM Thu 43 44 SW 20 5774 5123 370 Blue 4
2 PM Thu 42 43 SW 20 5644 4753 0 Blue 3
3 PM Thu 43 43 SW 20 5644 4753 0 Blue 3
4 PM Thu 43 43 W 22 5644 4753 0 Blue 3
5 PM Thu 41 41 W 22 5133 4753 0 Blue 1
6 PM Thu 39 39 W 22 3967 4753 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 37 37 W 17 3533 4753 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 36 36 W 17 3533 4753 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 36 36 W 17 3533 4753 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 36 36 W 13 3533 4753 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 36 36 W 13 3533 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 36 36 W 13 3533 4753 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 35 35 W 12 3533 4753 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 35 35 W 12 3533 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 35 35 W 12 3533 4753 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 35 35 W 10 3533 4753 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 36 36 W 10 3533 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 36 36 W 10 3533 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 37 37 NW 8 3533 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 37 37 NW 8 3533 4753 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 38 39 NW 8 3967 4753 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 39 40 N 7 4285 4753 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 41 43 N 7 5644 4753 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Fri 44 46 N 7 6608 5637 884 Blue 6
1 PM Fri 47 49 N 9 7779 6506 1753 Blue 9
2 PM Fri 48 49 N 9 7779 6506 1753 Blue 9
3 PM Fri 49 49 N 9 7779 6506 1753 Blue 9
4 PM Fri 49 49 NE 13 7779 6506 1753 Blue 9
5 PM Fri 48 48 NE 13 7568 5897 1144 Blue 8
6 PM Fri 46 46 NE 13 6608 5637 884 Blue 6
7 PM Fri 45 45 NE 14 5905 5508 755 Blue 5
8 PM Fri 45 45 NE 14 5905 5508 755 Blue 5
9 PM Fri 45 45 NE 14 5905 5508 755 Blue 5
10 PM Fri 44 44 NE 13 5774 5123 370 Blue 4
11 PM Fri 44 44 NE 13 5774 5123 370 Blue 4
12 Midnight Sat 44 44 NE 13 5774 5123 370 Blue 4
1 AM Sat 43 43 E 12 5644 4753 0 Blue 3
2 AM Sat 43 43 E 12 5644 4753 0 Blue 3
3 AM Sat 43 43 E 12 5644 4753 0 Blue 3

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst