Detailed Predictions for: Ord
Launch Altitude (f): 4753
LZ Altitude (f): 1614
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

17 NOV 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Sat 46 46 SW 5 3711 4753 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 46 46 SW 5 3711 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 46 46 SW 5 3711 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 47 47 S 5 3711 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 50 50 S 3 3711 4753 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 53 54 SW 3 3711 4753 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 55 57 W 3 4232 4753 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 56 58 W 3 4671 4753 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Sat 58 60 W 5 5618 4753 0 Blue 3
1 PM Sat 60 62 W 9 6542 5125 372 Blue 5
2 PM Sat 59 60 SW 10 5618 4753 0 Blue 3
3 PM Sat 60 60 SW 10 5618 4753 0 Blue 3
4 PM Sat 59 59 S 14 5140 4753 0 Blue 2
5 PM Sat 57 57 S 13 4232 4753 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 56 56 S 12 3947 4753 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 54 54 S 9 3711 4753 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 53 53 SW 9 3711 4753 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 52 52 SW 9 3711 4753 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 51 51 SW 9 3711 4753 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 50 50 SW 6 3711 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 48 48 SW 5 3711 4753 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 48 48 W 2 3711 4753 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 46 46 W 2 3711 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 45 45 W 2 3711 4753 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 44 44 N 1 3711 4753 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 44 44 NE 0 3711 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 44 44 N 1 3711 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 45 45 NE 1 3711 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 48 48 NE 2 3711 4753 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 51 51 NE 3 3711 4753 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 53 54 NE 7 3711 4753 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 55 57 NE 9 4232 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 57 59 E 13 5140 4753 0 Blue 2
1 PM Sun 58 59 E 15 5140 4753 0 Blue 2
2 PM Sun 58 59 E 15 5140 4753 0 Blue 2
3 PM Sun 59 59 E 16 5140 4753 0 Blue 2
4 PM Sun 58 58 E 16 4671 4753 0 Blue 1
5 PM Sun 56 56 E 16 3947 4753 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 55 55 E 16 3711 4753 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 53 53 E 17 3711 4753 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 52 52 E 16 3711 4753 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 51 51 E 16 3711 4753 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 50 50 E 15 3711 4753 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 48 48 E 14 3711 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 47 47 E 12 3711 4753 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 47 47 E 9 3711 4753 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 45 45 E 7 3711 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 44 44 E 6 3711 4753 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 43 43 E 6 3711 4753 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 43 43 E 6 3711 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 43 43 E 6 3711 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 44 44 E 7 3711 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 47 47 E 7 3711 4753 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 50 51 E 7 3711 4753 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 52 53 NE 10 3711 4753 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 54 55 NE 10 3711 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 55 56 NE 10 3947 4753 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 56 57 E 15 4232 4753 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 56 57 E 15 4232 4753 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 57 57 E 15 4232 4753 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 56 56 E 20 3947 4753 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 54 54 E 20 3711 4753 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 53 53 E 20 3711 4753 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 51 51 SE 9 3711 4753 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 50 50 SE 9 3711 4753 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 49 49 SE 9 3711 4753 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 48 48 E 7 3711 4753 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 46 46 E 7 3711 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 45 45 E 7 3711 4753 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 45 45 E 5 3711 4753 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 43 43 E 5 3711 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 42 42 E 5 3711 4753 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 41 41 E 5 3711 4753 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 41 41 E 5 3711 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 41 41 E 5 3711 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 42 42 E 6 3711 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 45 45 E 6 3711 4753 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 48 48 E 6 3711 4753 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 50 51 NE 6 3711 4753 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 52 54 NE 6 3711 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 54 56 NE 6 3947 4753 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 56 58 N 3 4671 4753 0 Blue 1
2 PM Tue 56 57 N 3 4232 4753 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 56 56 N 3 3947 4753 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 55 55 E 1 3711 4753 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 53 53 E 1 3711 4753 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 52 52 E 1 3711 4753 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 50 50 SE 6 3711 4753 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 49 49 SE 6 3711 4753 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 48 48 SE 6 3711 4753 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 47 47 SE 3 3711 4753 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 46 46 SE 3 3711 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 45 45 SE 3 3711 4753 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 44 44 SE 3 3711 4753 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 43 43 SE 3 3711 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 42 42 SE 3 3711 4753 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 41 41 S 3 3711 4753 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 41 41 S 3 3711 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 41 41 S 3 3711 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 42 42 S 3 3711 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 44 44 S 3 3711 4753 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 47 48 S 3 3711 4753 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 49 50 SE 1 3711 4753 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 51 52 SE 1 3711 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 52 53 SE 1 3711 4753 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 54 55 S 8 3711 4753 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 54 55 S 8 3711 4753 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 54 54 S 8 3711 4753 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 53 53 S 8 3711 4753 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 52 52 S 8 3711 4753 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 51 51 S 8 3711 4753 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 50 50 S 21 3711 4753 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 49 49 S 21 3711 4753 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 48 48 S 21 3711 4753 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 48 48 SW 17 3711 4753 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 47 47 SW 17 3711 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 46 46 SW 17 3711 4753 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 46 46 SW 14 3711 4753 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 45 45 SW 14 3711 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 44 44 SW 14 3711 4753 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 43 43 W 9 3711 4753 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 43 43 W 9 3711 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 43 43 W 9 3711 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 44 44 SW 9 3711 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 46 46 SW 9 3711 4753 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 49 49 SW 9 3711 4753 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 51 52 W 5 3711 4753 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 52 53 W 5 3711 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 53 54 W 5 3711 4753 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 55 56 W 7 3947 4753 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 55 55 W 7 3711 4753 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 55 55 W 7 3711 4753 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 54 54 S 15 3711 4753 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 52 52 S 15 3711 4753 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 52 52 S 15 3711 4753 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 50 50 SW 14 3711 4753 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 49 49 SW 14 3711 4753 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 48 48 SW 14 3711 4753 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 48 48 SW 16 3711 4753 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 46 46 SW 16 3711 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 46 46 SW 16 3711 4753 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 45 45 SW 12 3711 4753 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 44 44 SW 12 3711 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 43 43 SW 12 3711 4753 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst