Detailed Predictions for: Ord
Launch Altitude (f): 4753
LZ Altitude (f): 1614
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

25 MAR 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Mon 44 44 S 3 3885 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 45 45 S 3 3885 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 44 44 SE 3 3885 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 45 45 SE 2 3885 4753 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 47 48 E 2 3885 4753 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 50 53 E 2 3885 4753 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 54 59 N 3 4420 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 57 63 NE 2 7425 4753 0 Blue 4
1 PM Mon 60 66 S 2 8332 7368 2615 Blue 7
2 PM Mon 61 66 S 10 8332 7368 2615 Blue 7
3 PM Mon 60 64 SW 12 7730 5152 399 Blue 5
4 PM Mon 61 63 SW 13 7425 4753 0 Blue 4
5 PM Mon 60 61 SW 15 5196 4753 0 Blue 2
6 PM Mon 58 58 S 15 3930 4753 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 56 56 S 15 3885 4753 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 56 56 S 16 3885 4753 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 55 55 S 15 3885 4753 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 54 54 S 15 3885 4753 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 52 52 S 13 3885 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 51 51 S 13 3885 4753 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 50 50 S 12 3885 4753 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 50 50 S 9 3885 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 50 50 S 9 3885 4753 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 49 49 S 10 3885 4753 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 47 47 SW 10 3885 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 48 48 SW 9 3885 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 47 47 SW 8 3885 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 48 48 SW 8 3885 4753 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 49 50 SW 8 3885 4753 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 52 54 SW 9 3885 4753 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 55 58 SW 10 3930 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 57 60 SW 13 4636 4753 0 Blue 1
1 PM Tue 59 62 SW 15 6421 4753 0 Blue 3
2 PM Tue 60 63 SW 17 7425 4753 0 Blue 4
3 PM Tue 59 61 SW 18 5196 4753 0 Blue 2
4 PM Tue 60 61 S 20 5196 4753 0 Blue 2
5 PM Tue 58 58 S 20 3930 4753 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 56 56 S 20 3885 4753 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 54 54 S 20 3885 4753 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 54 54 S 20 3885 4753 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 53 53 S 20 3885 4753 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 52 52 S 20 3885 4753 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 50 50 S 18 3885 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 49 49 S 18 3885 4753 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 48 48 S 18 3885 4753 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 47 47 S 20 3885 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 47 47 S 20 3885 4753 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 46 46 S 20 3885 4753 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 44 44 S 20 3885 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 45 45 S 21 3885 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 44 44 S 21 3885 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 44 44 S 21 3885 4753 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 45 45 S 22 3885 4753 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 47 48 S 23 3885 4753 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 49 51 S 25 3885 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 51 54 S 26 3885 4753 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 52 55 S 29 3885 4753 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 53 56 S 30 3885 4753 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 52 54 S 30 3885 4753 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 53 54 SW 29 3885 4753 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 52 53 SW 28 3885 4753 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 49 49 SW 26 3885 4753 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 48 48 SW 24 3885 4753 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 47 47 SW 23 3885 4753 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 46 46 SW 21 3885 4753 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 45 45 SW 17 3885 4753 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 43 43 SW 16 3885 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 42 42 SW 15 3885 4753 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 40 40 SW 14 3885 4753 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 40 40 SW 14 3885 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 40 40 SW 14 3885 4753 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 39 39 SW 13 3885 4753 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 37 37 SW 13 3885 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 38 38 SW 13 3885 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 37 37 SW 13 3885 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 38 38 W 10 3885 4753 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 39 40 W 10 3885 4753 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 42 44 W 10 3885 4753 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 45 49 W 14 3885 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 47 52 W 14 3885 4753 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 50 55 W 14 3885 4753 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 51 56 W 16 3885 4753 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 51 55 W 16 3885 4753 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 51 53 W 16 3885 4753 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 50 51 W 18 3885 4753 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 48 48 W 18 3885 4753 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 47 47 W 18 3885 4753 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 47 47 W 16 3885 4753 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 46 46 W 16 3885 4753 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 45 45 W 16 3885 4753 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 44 44 W 15 3885 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 42 42 W 15 3885 4753 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 42 42 W 15 3885 4753 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 41 41 NW 12 3885 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 41 41 NW 12 3885 4753 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 41 41 NW 12 3885 4753 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 39 39 NW 9 3885 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 40 40 NW 9 3885 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 39 39 NW 9 3885 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 40 40 N 7 3885 4753 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 42 43 N 7 3885 4753 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 45 48 N 7 3885 4753 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 49 53 NE 8 3885 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 52 57 NE 8 3885 4753 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 55 60 NE 8 4636 4753 0 Blue 1
2 PM Fri 56 61 N 10 5196 4753 0 Blue 2
3 PM Fri 56 60 N 10 4636 4753 0 Blue 1
4 PM Fri 56 58 N 10 3930 4753 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 54 55 N 13 3885 4753 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 52 52 N 13 3885 4753 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 50 50 N 13 3885 4753 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 49 49 N 10 3885 4753 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 48 48 N 10 3885 4753 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 47 47 N 10 3885 4753 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 44 44 NW 10 3885 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 43 43 NW 10 3885 4753 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 41 41 NW 10 3885 4753 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 40 40 NE 9 3885 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 40 40 NE 9 3885 4753 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 40 40 NE 9 3885 4753 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 37 37 NE 9 3885 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 38 38 NE 9 3885 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 37 37 NE 9 3885 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 38 38 NE 12 3885 4753 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 40 41 NE 12 3885 4753 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 44 47 NE 12 3885 4753 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 49 53 NE 17 3885 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 52 57 NE 17 3885 4753 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 55 60 NE 17 4636 4753 0 Blue 1
2 PM Sat 57 62 NE 18 6421 4753 0 Blue 3
3 PM Sat 57 60 NE 18 4636 4753 0 Blue 1
4 PM Sat 57 59 NE 18 4420 4753 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 55 56 NE 18 3885 4753 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 53 53 NE 18 3885 4753 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 51 51 NE 18 3885 4753 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 51 51 NE 15 3885 4753 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 50 50 NE 15 3885 4753 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 49 49 NE 15 3885 4753 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 47 47 NE 14 3885 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 45 45 NE 14 3885 4753 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 44 44 NE 14 3885 4753 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 43 43 E 9 3885 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 43 43 E 9 3885 4753 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 42 42 E 9 3885 4753 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst