Detailed Predictions for: Ord
Launch Altitude (f): 4753
LZ Altitude (f): 1614
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

11 NOV 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Mon 48 48 E 3 3491 4753 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 48 48 E 3 3491 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 48 48 E 3 3491 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 49 49 E 5 3491 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 51 51 NE 5 3491 4753 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 53 54 NE 5 3491 4753 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 57 59 N 6 3491 4753 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 61 64 N 7 3491 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 66 69 NE 7 7044 4753 0 Blue 3
1 PM Mon 69 71 NE 8 8384 6268 1515 Blue 5
2 PM Mon 70 71 NE 9 8384 6268 1515 Blue 5
3 PM Mon 70 70 NE 9 7731 5512 759 Blue 4
4 PM Mon 70 70 NE 8 7731 5512 759 Blue 4
5 PM Mon 67 67 NE 8 5547 4753 0 Blue 1
6 PM Mon 65 65 E 8 3962 4753 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 62 62 E 9 3491 4753 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 61 61 E 9 3491 4753 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 60 60 E 8 3491 4753 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 59 59 E 8 3491 4753 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 58 58 E 7 3491 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 57 57 E 6 3491 4753 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 55 55 E 5 3491 4753 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 54 54 E 5 3491 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 52 52 E 5 3491 4753 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 51 51 E 3 3491 4753 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 50 50 E 3 3491 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 50 50 E 3 3491 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 51 51 E 3 3491 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 54 54 E 3 3491 4753 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 57 58 NE 5 3491 4753 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 61 63 N 5 3491 4753 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 65 68 N 5 6319 4753 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Tue 68 71 N 5 8384 6268 1515 Blue 5
1 PM Tue 71 73 N 5 9182 7655 2902 Blue 7
2 PM Tue 72 73 NE 5 9182 7655 2902 Blue 7
3 PM Tue 71 71 NE 6 8384 6268 1515 Blue 5
4 PM Tue 70 70 E 6 7731 5512 759 Blue 4
5 PM Tue 68 68 E 6 6319 4753 0 Blue 2
6 PM Tue 64 64 SE 5 3491 4753 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 61 61 S 5 3491 4753 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 59 59 S 5 3491 4753 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 58 58 S 3 3491 4753 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 56 56 S 3 3491 4753 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 56 56 S 3 3491 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 54 54 S 3 3491 4753 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 53 53 S 3 3491 4753 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 53 53 S 3 3491 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 52 52 S 3 3491 4753 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 51 51 S 2 3491 4753 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 50 50 S 2 3491 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 50 50 SW 2 3491 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 51 51 SW 1 3491 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 54 54 W 1 3491 4753 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 58 58 W 2 3491 4753 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 63 64 NW 2 3491 4753 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 67 68 NW 3 6319 4753 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Wed 70 71 W 5 8384 6268 1515 Blue 5
1 PM Wed 70 71 W 7 8384 6268 1515 Blue 5
2 PM Wed 70 71 W 9 8384 6268 1515 Blue 5
3 PM Wed 68 68 SW 12 6319 4753 0 Blue 2
4 PM Wed 65 65 S 13 3962 4753 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 63 63 S 14 3491 4753 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 62 62 S 15 3491 4753 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 60 60 S 15 3491 4753 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 59 59 S 15 3491 4753 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 58 58 S 15 3491 4753 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 57 57 S 15 3491 4753 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 56 56 S 15 3491 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 55 55 S 14 3491 4753 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 54 54 S 14 3491 4753 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 53 53 S 13 3491 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 52 52 SW 13 3491 4753 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 52 52 SW 13 3491 4753 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 51 51 SW 13 3491 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 51 51 SW 13 3491 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 53 53 SW 13 3491 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 56 56 SW 13 3491 4753 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 60 60 SW 13 3491 4753 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 64 65 SW 13 3962 4753 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 66 67 SW 13 5547 4753 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Thu 66 67 SW 13 5547 4753 0 Blue 1
1 PM Thu 66 67 S 15 5547 4753 0 Blue 1
2 PM Thu 65 66 S 15 4747 4753 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 63 63 S 15 3491 4753 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 61 61 S 16 3491 4753 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 60 60 S 16 3491 4753 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 60 60 S 16 3491 4753 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 60 60 S 14 3491 4753 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 60 60 S 14 3491 4753 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 60 60 S 14 3491 4753 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 59 59 S 10 3491 4753 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 58 58 S 10 3491 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 57 57 S 10 3491 4753 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 54 54 SW 7 3491 4753 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 52 52 SW 7 3491 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 49 49 SW 7 3491 4753 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 46 46 W 5 3491 4753 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 45 45 W 5 3491 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 45 45 W 5 3491 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 46 46 NW 2 3491 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 48 48 NW 2 3491 4753 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 50 50 NW 2 3491 4753 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 53 54 NW 5 3491 4753 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 57 59 NW 5 3491 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 60 62 NW 5 3491 4753 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 63 65 N 6 3962 4753 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 65 66 N 6 4747 4753 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 65 65 N 6 3962 4753 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 66 66 N 6 4747 4753 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 64 64 N 6 3491 4753 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 62 62 N 6 3491 4753 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 58 58 N 3 3491 4753 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 55 55 N 3 3491 4753 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 52 52 N 3 3491 4753 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 49 49 NW 5 3491 4753 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 48 48 NW 5 3491 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 47 47 NW 5 3491 4753 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 47 47 W 3 3491 4753 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 46 46 W 3 3491 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 46 46 W 3 3491 4753 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 45 45 S 2 3491 4753 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 44 44 S 2 3491 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 44 44 S 2 3491 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 45 45 NE 2 3491 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 48 48 NE 2 3491 4753 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 52 53 NE 2 3491 4753 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 56 58 NE 7 3491 4753 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 60 63 NE 7 3491 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 63 66 NE 7 4747 4753 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 66 68 NE 12 6319 4753 0 Blue 2
2 PM Sat 68 70 NE 12 7731 5512 759 Blue 4
3 PM Sat 67 68 NE 12 6319 4753 0 Blue 2
4 PM Sat 67 67 NE 14 5547 4753 0 Blue 1
5 PM Sat 65 65 NE 14 3962 4753 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 62 62 NE 14 3491 4753 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 59 59 NE 13 3491 4753 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 58 58 NE 13 3491 4753 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 57 57 NE 13 3491 4753 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 56 56 NE 13 3491 4753 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 54 54 NE 13 3491 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 52 52 NE 13 3491 4753 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 50 50 NE 8 3491 4753 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 48 48 NE 8 3491 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 47 47 NE 8 3491 4753 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst