Detailed Predictions for: Ord
Launch Altitude (f): 4753
LZ Altitude (f): 1614
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

22 APR 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 57 57 SW 2 2680 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 58 58 W 2 2680 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 59 59 W 2 2680 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 61 62 W 2 2680 4753 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 64 66 W 2 5524 4753 0 Blue 1
10 AM Sun 67 71 NW 3 9740 6309 1556 Blue 6
11 AM Sun 70 75 NW 5 11905 11533 6780 Blue 10
12 Noon Sun 73 79 NW 5 12518 12006 7253 Blue 14
1 PM Sun 75 82 W 6 13691 12475 7722 Blue 17
2 PM Sun 75 81 W 7 13213 12319 7566 Blue 16
3 PM Sun 76 81 SW 10 13213 12319 7566 Blue 16
4 PM Sun 75 78 SW 14 12361 11883 7130 Blue 13
5 PM Sun 73 74 S 17 11818 9514 4761 Blue 9
6 PM Sun 71 71 S 20 9740 6309 1556 Blue 6
7 PM Sun 69 69 S 18 7162 5504 751 Blue 4
8 PM Sun 67 67 S 17 5987 4753 0 Blue 2
9 PM Sun 66 66 S 16 5524 4753 0 Blue 1
10 PM Sun 65 65 S 15 4809 4753 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 65 65 SW 12 4809 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 64 64 SW 10 3854 4753 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 63 63 SW 9 2786 4753 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 62 62 SW 7 2680 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 60 60 SW 6 2680 4753 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 59 59 SW 6 2680 4753 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 59 59 SW 5 2680 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 60 60 SW 5 2680 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 62 62 SW 5 2680 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 64 65 SW 3 4809 4753 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 67 69 W 3 7162 5504 751 Blue 4
10 AM Mon 70 74 W 5 11818 9514 4761 Blue 9
11 AM Mon 72 78 W 6 12361 11883 7130 Blue 13
12 Noon Mon 74 81 W 7 13213 12319 7566 Blue 16
1 PM Mon 75 82 W 8 13691 12475 7722 Blue 17
2 PM Mon 75 81 SW 13 13213 12319 7566 Blue 16
3 PM Mon 76 81 SW 15 13213 12319 7566 Blue 16
4 PM Mon 75 78 S 16 12361 11883 7130 Blue 13
5 PM Mon 74 75 S 17 11905 11533 6780 Blue 10
6 PM Mon 72 72 S 16 11584 7082 2329 Blue 7
7 PM Mon 71 71 S 16 9740 6309 1556 Blue 6
8 PM Mon 69 69 S 15 7162 5504 751 Blue 4
9 PM Mon 68 68 S 14 6331 4791 38 Blue 3
10 PM Mon 67 67 SW 13 5987 4753 0 Blue 2
11 PM Mon 66 66 SW 10 5524 4753 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Tue 66 66 SW 9 5524 4753 0 Blue 1
1 AM Tue 64 64 SW 8 3854 4753 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 63 63 SW 6 2786 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 62 62 SW 6 2680 4753 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 61 61 SW 6 2680 4753 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 60 60 SW 3 2680 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 60 60 SW 3 2680 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 61 61 SW 2 2680 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 63 64 W 1 3854 4753 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 66 68 NW 2 6331 4791 38 Blue 3
10 AM Tue 69 73 N 3 11731 8088 3335 Blue 8
11 AM Tue 72 77 N 3 12204 11796 7043 Blue 12
12 Noon Tue 75 80 N 3 12721 12162 7409 Blue 15
1 PM Tue 77 82 N 3 13691 12475 7722 Blue 17
2 PM Tue 77 82 SW 7 13691 12475 7722 Blue 17
3 PM Tue 78 82 SW 10 13691 12475 7722 Blue 17
4 PM Tue 76 78 SW 14 12361 11883 7130 Blue 13
5 PM Tue 74 75 S 16 11905 11533 6780 Blue 10
6 PM Tue 72 72 S 17 11584 7082 2329 Blue 7
7 PM Tue 69 69 S 18 7162 5504 751 Blue 4
8 PM Tue 68 68 S 18 6331 4791 38 Blue 3
9 PM Tue 67 67 S 18 5987 4753 0 Blue 2
10 PM Tue 67 67 S 18 5987 4753 0 Blue 2
11 PM Tue 66 66 S 15 5524 4753 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Wed 64 64 S 15 3854 4753 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 62 62 S 15 2680 4753 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 61 61 SW 7 2680 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 60 60 SW 7 2680 4753 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 60 60 SW 7 2680 4753 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 60 60 W 6 2680 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 60 60 W 6 2680 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 60 60 W 6 2680 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 62 63 W 6 2786 4753 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 66 68 W 6 6331 4791 38 Blue 3
10 AM Wed 70 73 W 6 11731 8088 3335 Blue 8
11 AM Wed 73 78 W 7 12361 11883 7130 Blue 13
12 Noon Wed 74 80 W 7 12721 12162 7409 Blue 15
1 PM Wed 74 80 W 7 12721 12162 7409 Blue 15
2 PM Wed 73 79 SW 14 12518 12006 7253 Blue 14
3 PM Wed 72 76 SW 14 12047 11709 6956 Blue 11
4 PM Wed 72 75 SW 14 11905 11533 6780 Blue 10
5 PM Wed 71 72 S 20 11584 7082 2329 Blue 7
6 PM Wed 71 71 S 20 9740 6309 1556 Blue 6
7 PM Wed 70 70 S 20 8302 5961 1208 Blue 5
8 PM Wed 69 69 S 16 7162 5504 751 Blue 4
9 PM Wed 68 68 S 16 6331 4791 38 Blue 3
10 PM Wed 67 67 S 16 5987 4753 0 Blue 2
11 PM Wed 66 66 SW 12 5524 4753 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Thu 65 65 SW 12 4809 4753 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 64 64 SW 12 3854 4753 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 63 63 SW 8 2786 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 62 62 SW 8 2680 4753 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 61 61 SW 8 2680 4753 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 60 60 SW 6 2680 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 60 60 SW 6 2680 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 61 61 SW 6 2680 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 63 64 W 7 3854 4753 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 66 68 W 7 6331 4791 38 Blue 3
10 AM Thu 69 73 W 7 11731 8088 3335 Blue 8
11 AM Thu 72 77 W 9 12204 11796 7043 Blue 12
12 Noon Thu 74 80 W 9 12721 12162 7409 Blue 15
1 PM Thu 74 80 W 9 12721 12162 7409 Blue 15
2 PM Thu 74 80 SW 15 12721 12162 7409 Blue 15
3 PM Thu 74 78 SW 15 12361 11883 7130 Blue 13
4 PM Thu 73 76 SW 15 12047 11709 6956 Blue 11
5 PM Thu 72 73 S 20 11731 8088 3335 Blue 8
6 PM Thu 70 70 S 20 8302 5961 1208 Blue 5
7 PM Thu 68 68 S 20 6331 4791 38 Blue 3
8 PM Thu 66 66 S 17 5524 4753 0 Blue 1
9 PM Thu 64 64 S 17 3854 4753 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 63 63 S 17 2786 4753 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 62 62 S 14 2680 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 60 60 S 14 2680 4753 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 59 59 S 14 2680 4753 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 58 58 S 13 2680 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 58 58 S 13 2680 4753 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 57 57 S 13 2680 4753 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 57 57 S 13 2680 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 57 57 S 13 2680 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 57 57 S 13 2680 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 59 60 S 15 2680 4753 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 62 64 S 15 3854 4753 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 65 69 S 15 7162 5504 751 Blue 4
11 AM Fri 69 75 S 17 11905 11533 6780 Blue 10
12 Noon Fri 72 79 S 17 12518 12006 7253 Blue 14
1 PM Fri 73 80 S 17 12721 12162 7409 Blue 15
2 PM Fri 73 79 S 22 12518 12006 7253 Blue 14
3 PM Fri 71 76 S 22 12047 11709 6956 Blue 11
4 PM Fri 70 73 S 22 11731 8088 3335 Blue 8
5 PM Fri 68 69 S 24 7162 5504 751 Blue 4
6 PM Fri 66 66 S 24 5524 4753 0 Blue 1
7 PM Fri 64 64 S 24 3854 4753 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 62 62 S 21 2680 4753 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 61 61 S 21 2680 4753 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 60 60 S 21 2680 4753 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 60 60 S 15 2680 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 59 59 S 15 2680 4753 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 58 58 S 15 2680 4753 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 58 58 S 13 2680 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 58 58 S 13 2680 4753 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 57 57 S 13 2680 4753 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst