Detailed Predictions for: Ord
Launch Altitude (f): 4753
LZ Altitude (f): 1614
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

21 SEP 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Fri 67 67 S 7 3488 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 69 69 S 7 3488 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 69 69 S 6 3488 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 70 70 S 3 3488 4753 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 73 74 E 2 3928 4753 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 76 79 E 1 5982 4753 0 Blue 3
11 AM Fri 78 82 SW 5 9344 5934 1181 Blue 6
12 Noon Fri 80 85 SW 10 10560 9274 4521 Blue 9
1 PM Fri 81 87 SW 13 12032 10102 5349 Blue 11
2 PM Fri 81 86 SW 16 10902 9692 4939 Blue 10
3 PM Fri 82 86 SW 17 10902 9692 4939 Blue 10
4 PM Fri 82 84 SW 17 10180 8849 4096 Blue 8
5 PM Fri 80 81 SW 18 8914 5461 708 Blue 5
6 PM Fri 78 78 SW 17 5469 4753 0 Blue 2
7 PM Fri 76 76 S 15 4359 4753 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 77 77 S 15 4752 4753 0 Blue 1
9 PM Fri 76 76 S 15 4359 4753 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 75 75 S 15 4144 4753 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 73 73 S 8 3712 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 72 72 S 5 3495 4753 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 71 71 S 5 3488 4753 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 71 71 S 2 3488 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 70 70 SE 1 3488 4753 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 70 70 S 1 3488 4753 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 68 68 S 1 3488 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 70 70 SE 2 3488 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 70 70 SE 2 3488 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 71 71 SE 1 3488 4753 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 74 75 E 2 4144 4753 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 76 79 N 2 5982 4753 0 Blue 3
11 AM Sat 78 82 NW 2 9344 5934 1181 Blue 6
12 Noon Sat 80 85 W 5 10560 9274 4521 Blue 9
1 PM Sat 81 86 SW 8 10902 9692 4939 Blue 10
2 PM Sat 81 86 SW 10 10902 9692 4939 Blue 10
3 PM Sat 82 86 SW 10 10902 9692 4939 Blue 10
4 PM Sat 82 84 SW 10 10180 8849 4096 Blue 8
5 PM Sat 80 81 SW 12 8914 5461 708 Blue 5
6 PM Sat 78 78 SW 14 5469 4753 0 Blue 2
7 PM Sat 76 76 S 18 4359 4753 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 77 77 S 17 4752 4753 0 Blue 1
9 PM Sat 76 76 W 8 4359 4753 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 75 75 SW 9 4144 4753 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 73 73 W 8 3712 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 72 72 SW 6 3495 4753 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 71 71 SW 5 3488 4753 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 71 71 SW 5 3488 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 70 70 SW 5 3488 4753 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 70 70 SW 5 3488 4753 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 68 68 SW 5 3488 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 70 70 SW 3 3488 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 69 69 SW 5 3488 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 71 71 W 5 3488 4753 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 73 74 W 5 3928 4753 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 75 78 SW 12 5469 4753 0 Blue 2
11 AM Sun 77 82 SW 15 9344 5934 1181 Blue 6
12 Noon Sun 78 84 SW 16 10180 8849 4096 Blue 8
1 PM Sun 79 85 SW 17 10560 9274 4521 Blue 9
2 PM Sun 79 84 SW 22 10180 8849 4096 Blue 8
3 PM Sun 80 84 SW 21 10180 8849 4096 Blue 8
4 PM Sun 79 81 SW 21 8914 5461 708 Blue 5
5 PM Sun 78 79 SW 22 5982 4753 0 Blue 3
6 PM Sun 75 75 S 22 4144 4753 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 74 74 S 22 3928 4753 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 75 75 S 21 4144 4753 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 74 74 S 21 3928 4753 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 72 72 S 20 3495 4753 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 70 70 SW 18 3488 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 69 69 SW 16 3488 4753 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 68 68 SW 16 3488 4753 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 68 68 SW 15 3488 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 67 67 SW 16 3488 4753 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 67 67 SW 15 3488 4753 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 65 65 W 5 3488 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 67 67 W 5 3488 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 67 67 W 5 3488 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 69 69 W 3 3488 4753 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 72 73 W 3 3712 4753 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 75 78 W 3 5469 4753 0 Blue 2
11 AM Mon 77 82 NW 5 9344 5934 1181 Blue 6
12 Noon Mon 79 85 NW 5 10560 9274 4521 Blue 9
1 PM Mon 80 86 NW 5 10902 9692 4939 Blue 10
2 PM Mon 81 86 SW 8 10902 9692 4939 Blue 10
3 PM Mon 81 85 SW 8 10560 9274 4521 Blue 9
4 PM Mon 80 82 SW 8 9344 5934 1181 Blue 6
5 PM Mon 79 80 SW 13 7504 4753 0 Blue 4
6 PM Mon 76 76 SW 13 4359 4753 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 74 74 SW 13 3928 4753 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 75 75 SW 10 4144 4753 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 74 74 SW 10 3928 4753 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 73 73 SW 10 3712 4753 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 71 71 W 6 3488 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 70 70 W 6 3488 4753 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 69 69 W 6 3488 4753 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 68 68 W 5 3488 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 67 67 W 5 3488 4753 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 67 67 W 5 3488 4753 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 65 65 NW 1 3488 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 67 67 NW 1 3488 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 67 67 NW 1 3488 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 69 69 NE 3 3488 4753 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 72 73 NE 3 3712 4753 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 75 78 NE 3 5469 4753 0 Blue 2
11 AM Tue 78 83 NE 9 9765 7121 2368 Blue 7
12 Noon Tue 80 86 NE 9 10902 9692 4939 Blue 10
1 PM Tue 81 87 NE 9 12032 10102 5349 Blue 11
2 PM Tue 82 87 E 13 12032 10102 5349 Blue 11
3 PM Tue 82 86 E 13 10902 9692 4939 Blue 10
4 PM Tue 81 83 E 13 9765 7121 2368 Blue 7
5 PM Tue 80 81 E 6 8914 5461 708 Blue 5
6 PM Tue 77 77 E 6 4752 4753 0 Blue 1
7 PM Tue 76 76 E 6 4359 4753 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 77 77 SE 9 4752 4753 0 Blue 1
9 PM Tue 76 76 SE 9 4359 4753 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 74 74 SE 9 3928 4753 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 72 72 E 1 3495 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 71 71 E 1 3488 4753 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 70 70 E 1 3488 4753 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 70 70 N 2 3488 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 69 69 N 2 3488 4753 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 69 69 N 2 3488 4753 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 67 67 NW 1 3488 4753 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 69 69 NW 1 3488 4753 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 69 69 NW 1 3488 4753 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 70 70 NE 3 3488 4753 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 73 74 NE 3 3928 4753 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 76 79 NE 3 5982 4753 0 Blue 3
11 AM Wed 78 82 NE 7 9344 5934 1181 Blue 6
12 Noon Wed 80 85 NE 7 10560 9274 4521 Blue 9
1 PM Wed 81 87 NE 7 12032 10102 5349 Blue 11
2 PM Wed 82 87 NE 7 12032 10102 5349 Blue 11
3 PM Wed 82 86 NE 7 10902 9692 4939 Blue 10
4 PM Wed 82 84 NE 7 10180 8849 4096 Blue 8
5 PM Wed 80 81 NE 6 8914 5461 708 Blue 5
6 PM Wed 78 78 NE 6 5469 4753 0 Blue 2
7 PM Wed 76 76 NE 6 4359 4753 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 77 77 S 9 4752 4753 0 Blue 1
9 PM Wed 76 76 S 9 4359 4753 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 75 75 S 9 4144 4753 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 73 73 SW 8 3712 4753 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 72 72 SW 8 3495 4753 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 71 71 SW 8 3488 4753 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 71 71 W 2 3488 4753 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 70 70 W 2 3488 4753 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 70 70 W 2 3488 4753 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst