Detailed Predictions for: Torrey Pines Gliderport
Launch Altitude (f): 300
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

 KNKX

Date/Time:

 3 SEP 2010

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
5 AM Fri 65 45 N 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 65 45 N 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 65 45 N 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 66 46 N 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 68 48 N 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 70 51 N 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 72 56 NW 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 73 58 NW 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 73 58 NW 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 73 58 NW 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 73 57 NW 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 74 56 NW 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 73 54 NW 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 73 53 NW 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 71 51 NW 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 69 49 NW 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 68 48 NW 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 67 47 NW 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 66 46 NW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 65 45 NW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 64 44 NW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 63 43 N 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 62 42 N 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 62 42 N 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 62 42 N 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 63 43 N 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 65 45 N 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 67 47 N 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 71 52 N 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 74 56 N 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 76 60 W 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 76 61 W 8 636 440 140 Blue 1
1 PM Sat 76 62 W 8 867 440 140 White 2
2 PM Sat 76 61 W 12 636 440 140 Blue 1
3 PM Sat 75 59 W 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 73 56 W 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 72 53 W 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 71 51 W 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 69 49 W 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 68 48 W 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 68 48 W 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 68 48 W 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 67 47 W 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 66 46 W 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 65 45 W 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 64 44 W 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 63 43 W 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 63 43 W 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 62 42 W 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 63 43 W 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 63 43 W 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 65 45 W 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 67 47 W 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 69 49 W 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 70 54 W 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 70 54 W 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 70 55 W 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 69 53 W 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 68 51 W 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 67 49 W 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 66 47 W 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 69 49 W 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 65 45 W 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 64 44 W 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 63 43 W 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 63 43 W 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 64 44 W 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 63 43 W 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 63 43 W 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 62 42 W 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 62 42 W 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 62 42 W 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 62 42 S 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 61 41 S 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 60 40 S 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 62 42 S 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 64 44 S 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 66 46 S 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 66 50 W 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 66 51 W 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 66 51 W 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 67 52 W 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 66 50 W 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 66 48 W 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 66 47 W 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 65 45 W 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 63 43 W 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 62 42 W 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 62 42 W 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 62 42 W 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 62 42 W 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 62 42 W 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 61 41 W 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 61 41 W 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 61 41 W 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 61 41 W 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 61 41 SE 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 60 40 SE 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 60 40 SE 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 62 42 SE 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 64 44 SE 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 66 46 SE 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 67 50 SW 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 67 51 SW 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 67 51 SW 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 67 51 SW 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 67 50 SW 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 67 49 SW 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 66 47 SW 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 65 45 SW 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 62 42 SW 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 60 40 SW 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 60 40 SW 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 60 40 SW 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 60 40 SW 0 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 60 40 SW 0 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 59 39 SW 0 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 59 39 SW 0 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 59 39 SW 0 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 59 39 SW 0 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 58 38 E 0 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 58 38 E 0 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 57 37 E 0 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 59 39 E 0 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 60 40 E 0 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 62 42 E 0 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 62 45 W 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 62 46 W 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 62 46 W 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 63 47 W 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 62 45 W 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 63 45 W 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 62 43 W 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 61 41 W 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 60 40 W 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 59 39 W 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 59 39 W 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 58 38 W 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 59 39 N 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 59 39 N 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 58 38 N 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 58 38 N 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 58 38 N 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 58 38 N 1 0 300 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst