Detailed Predictions for: Torrey Pines Gliderport
Launch Altitude (f): 300
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

20 JUL 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Fri 69 49 W 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 69 49 W 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 69 49 W 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 69 49 W 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 70 50 W 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 71 51 W 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 72 56 W 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 71 56 W 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 72 57 W 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 71 58 W 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 71 56 W 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 70 54 W 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 70 52 W 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 69 50 W 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 69 49 W 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 68 48 W 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 68 48 W 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 68 48 NW 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 68 48 W 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 68 48 NW 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 68 48 NW 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 69 49 NW 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 69 49 NW 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 69 49 NW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 69 49 NW 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 69 49 NW 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 70 50 NW 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 70 50 NW 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 71 51 NW 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 71 51 NW 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 72 57 W 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 71 57 W 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 72 58 W 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 72 58 W 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 72 57 W 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 71 54 W 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 70 51 W 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 70 50 W 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 69 49 NW 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 68 48 NW 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 68 48 NW 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 68 48 NW 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 68 48 NW 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 68 48 NW 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 68 48 NW 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 68 48 NW 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 68 48 NW 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 67 47 NW 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 67 47 N 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 67 47 N 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 67 47 NW 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 68 48 NW 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 69 49 NW 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 70 50 NW 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 71 56 NW 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 72 58 NW 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 72 58 NW 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 72 58 NW 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 72 57 NW 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 72 55 NW 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 73 55 NW 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 73 53 NW 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 74 54 NW 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 74 54 NW 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 74 54 NW 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 73 53 NW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 72 52 W 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 72 52 W 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 72 52 W 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 72 52 W 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 71 51 W 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 69 49 W 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 68 48 W 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 68 48 W 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 69 49 W 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 71 51 SW 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 73 53 SW 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 75 56 SW 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 77 63 W 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 78 66 W 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 79 67 W 8 501 440 140 Blue 1
2 PM Mon 79 67 W 8 501 440 140 Blue 1
3 PM Mon 80 66 W 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 80 64 W 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 80 62 W 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 78 59 W 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 76 56 W 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 75 55 W 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 74 54 W 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 73 53 W 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 73 53 SW 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 72 52 SW 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 72 52 SW 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 71 51 SW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 70 50 SW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 70 50 SW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 70 50 S 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 71 51 S 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 72 52 S 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 74 54 S 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 77 58 S 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 80 61 S 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 83 70 W 7 1409 501 201 Blue 4
12 Noon Tue 84 72 W 7 1528 1325 1025 Blue 6
1 PM Tue 84 72 W 7 1528 1325 1025 Blue 6
2 PM Tue 83 71 W 7 1469 848 548 Blue 5
3 PM Tue 83 69 W 7 1340 440 140 Blue 3
4 PM Tue 82 67 W 7 501 440 140 Blue 1
5 PM Tue 81 64 W 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 80 61 W 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 79 59 W 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 78 58 SW 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 77 57 SW 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 77 57 SW 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 76 56 SW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 75 55 SW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 74 54 SW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 73 53 S 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 72 52 S 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 71 51 S 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 71 51 S 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 72 52 S 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 73 53 S 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 75 55 SW 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 78 59 SW 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 82 64 SW 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 84 70 W 7 1409 501 201 Blue 4
12 Noon Wed 84 72 W 7 1528 1325 1025 Blue 6
1 PM Wed 83 71 W 7 1469 848 548 Blue 5
2 PM Wed 82 70 SW 8 1409 501 201 Blue 4
3 PM Wed 81 67 SW 8 501 440 140 Blue 1
4 PM Wed 81 65 SW 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 81 63 SW 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 80 61 SW 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 79 59 SW 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 78 58 SW 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 76 56 SW 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 76 56 SW 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 76 56 S 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 76 56 S 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 75 55 S 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 75 55 S 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 74 54 S 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 72 52 S 5 0 300 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst