Detailed Predictions for: Torrey Pines Gliderport
Launch Altitude (f): 300
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

22 APR 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 56 36 SW 0 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 56 36 SW 0 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 58 38 SW 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 60 40 S 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 62 44 SW 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 65 48 SW 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 65 50 W 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 66 52 W 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 65 51 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 65 50 W 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 65 49 W 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 65 48 W 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 65 46 W 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 64 44 SW 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 63 43 SW 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 62 42 SW 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 61 41 S 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 60 40 S 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 60 40 S 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 59 39 S 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 58 38 S 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 57 37 S 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 56 36 S 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 56 36 SE 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 55 35 SE 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 55 35 SE 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 55 35 SE 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 56 36 S 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 58 38 SW 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 60 40 SW 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 61 46 W 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 62 48 W 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 63 49 W 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 63 48 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 62 46 W 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 62 45 W 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 62 43 W 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 62 42 W 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 60 40 W 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 59 39 W 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 58 38 W 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 57 37 SW 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 57 37 S 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 56 36 S 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 56 36 S 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 56 36 S 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 55 35 S 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 54 34 SE 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 54 34 E 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 54 34 N 0 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 55 35 SW 0 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 56 36 N 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 58 38 W 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 60 40 W 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 62 47 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 63 48 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 63 49 W 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 63 48 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 63 47 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 62 44 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 63 44 W 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 62 42 W 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 61 41 W 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 60 40 SW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 60 40 SW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 60 40 SW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 60 40 S 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 60 40 S 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 60 40 S 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 60 40 S 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 59 39 S 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 58 38 S 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 57 37 SW 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 56 36 SW 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 55 35 SW 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 55 35 W 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 56 36 W 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 58 38 W 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 60 45 W 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 62 48 W 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 63 49 W 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 63 49 W 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 63 47 W 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 62 45 W 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 61 42 W 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 60 40 W 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 58 38 W 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 58 38 NW 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 57 37 NW 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 57 37 NW 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 56 36 NW 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 56 36 NW 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 56 36 NW 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 56 36 NW 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 56 36 NW 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 56 36 NW 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 56 36 W 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 55 35 W 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 55 35 W 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 56 36 W 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 57 37 W 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 59 39 W 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 60 45 W 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 61 47 W 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 60 46 W 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 60 45 W 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 60 44 W 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 61 43 W 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 61 42 NW 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 60 40 NW 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 59 39 NW 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 58 38 NW 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 57 37 NW 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 56 36 NW 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 56 36 N 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 56 36 N 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 56 36 N 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 56 36 N 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 56 36 N 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 55 35 N 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 55 35 N 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 54 34 N 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 54 34 N 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 55 35 NW 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 57 37 NW 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 60 40 NW 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 62 46 NW 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 62 46 NW 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 62 47 NW 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 62 46 NW 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 62 45 NW 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 63 45 NW 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 63 44 NW 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 62 42 NW 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 61 41 NW 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 60 40 NW 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 60 40 NW 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 60 40 NW 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 59 39 NW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 58 38 NW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 57 37 NW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 56 36 N 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 54 34 N 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 53 33 N 2 0 300 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst