Detailed Predictions for: Torrey Pines Gliderport
Launch Altitude (f): 300
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

 KNKX

Date/Time:

 10 MAR 2010

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
7 AM Wed 45 25 SW 4 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 50 31 SW 4 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 55 37 SW 4 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 55 38 W 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 56 40 W 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 57 41 W 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 58 42 W 14 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 57 40 W 14 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 58 40 W 14 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 57 37 W 16 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 54 34 W 16 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 53 33 W 16 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 51 31 W 11 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 50 30 W 11 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 50 30 W 11 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 50 30 SW 4 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 49 29 SW 4 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 49 29 SW 4 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 48 28 E 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 47 27 E 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 47 27 E 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 46 26 E 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 46 26 E 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 46 26 E 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 48 28 E 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 54 35 E 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 59 41 E 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 60 44 NW 4 509 440 140 Blue 2
11 AM Thu 61 46 NW 4 594 466 166 Blue 4
12 Noon Thu 61 46 NW 4 594 466 166 Blue 4
1 PM Thu 63 47 W 7 637 508 208 Blue 5
2 PM Thu 62 45 W 7 551 440 140 Blue 3
3 PM Thu 63 45 W 7 551 440 140 Blue 3
4 PM Thu 61 42 NW 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 59 39 NW 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 57 37 NW 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 55 35 N 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 54 34 N 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 54 34 N 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 53 33 N 4 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 53 33 N 4 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 52 32 N 4 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 51 31 E 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 51 31 E 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 50 30 E 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 50 30 E 4 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 49 29 E 4 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 49 29 E 4 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 51 31 E 4 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 56 37 E 4 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 61 43 E 4 466 440 140 Blue 1
10 AM Fri 62 45 W 4 551 440 140 Blue 3
11 AM Fri 63 47 W 4 637 508 208 Blue 5
12 Noon Fri 64 49 W 4 767 594 294 Blue 7
1 PM Fri 65 49 W 4 767 594 294 Blue 7
2 PM Fri 64 47 W 4 637 508 208 Blue 5
3 PM Fri 65 47 W 4 637 508 208 Blue 5
4 PM Fri 64 44 W 7 509 440 140 Blue 2
5 PM Fri 61 41 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 59 39 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 58 38 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 57 37 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 57 37 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 56 36 NW 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 55 35 NW 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 55 35 NW 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 54 34 NW 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 54 34 NW 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 53 33 NW 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 53 33 NE 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 52 32 NE 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 52 32 NE 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 53 33 NE 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 55 35 NE 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 57 38 NE 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 58 41 SW 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 58 42 SW 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 58 42 SW 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 59 43 SW 9 466 440 140 Blue 1
2 PM Sat 58 41 SW 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 59 41 SW 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 58 38 W 11 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 57 37 W 11 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 55 35 W 11 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 55 35 W 11 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 54 34 W 11 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 54 34 W 11 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 53 33 NW 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 53 33 NW 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 53 33 NW 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 52 32 NW 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 52 32 NW 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 52 32 NW 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 51 31 E 4 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 51 31 E 4 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 51 31 E 4 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 52 32 E 4 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 57 37 E 4 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 62 43 E 4 466 440 140 Blue 1
10 AM Sun 62 45 W 4 551 440 140 Blue 3
11 AM Sun 63 47 W 4 637 508 208 Blue 5
12 Noon Sun 64 49 W 4 767 594 294 Blue 7
1 PM Sun 65 49 W 4 767 594 294 Blue 7
2 PM Sun 64 47 W 4 637 508 208 Blue 5
3 PM Sun 65 47 W 4 637 508 208 Blue 5
4 PM Sun 64 45 NW 10 551 440 140 Blue 3
5 PM Sun 61 41 NW 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 59 39 NW 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 58 38 NW 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 57 37 NW 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 57 37 NW 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 56 36 N 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 55 35 N 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 55 35 N 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 54 34 N 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 54 34 N 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 53 33 N 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 53 33 NE 4 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 52 32 NE 4 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 52 32 NE 4 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 54 34 NE 4 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 62 43 NE 4 466 440 140 Blue 1
9 AM Mon 70 52 NE 4 1327 766 466 Blue 10
10 AM Mon 71 55 NE 2 3453 1296 996 Blue 13
11 AM Mon 72 57 NE 2 4285 3292 2992 White 15
12 Noon Mon 73 58 NE 2 4497 3438 3138 White 16
1 PM Mon 75 60 NE 2 4921 4921 4621 White 18
2 PM Mon 74 57 NE 2 4285 3292 2992 White 15
3 PM Mon 74 56 NE 2 4071 2228 1928 White 14
4 PM Mon 73 54 NW 4 3306 946 646 Blue 12
5 PM Mon 69 49 NW 4 767 594 294 Blue 7
6 PM Mon 66 46 NW 4 594 466 166 Blue 4
7 PM Mon 63 43 NW 4 466 440 140 Blue 1
8 PM Mon 62 42 NW 4 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 61 41 NW 4 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 60 40 E 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 60 40 E 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 59 39 E 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 57 37 E 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 56 36 E 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 56 36 E 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 55 35 NE 4 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 54 34 NE 4 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 54 34 NE 4 0 300 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst