Detailed Predictions for: Torrey Pines Gliderport
Launch Altitude (f): 300
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

11 NOV 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Mon 56 36 S 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 56 36 E 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 55 35 NE 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 55 35 NE 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 56 36 NE 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 57 37 N 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 59 41 W 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 61 43 W 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 62 44 W 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 62 44 W 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 62 43 W 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 62 42 W 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 62 42 NW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 61 41 NW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 61 41 NW 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 60 40 N 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 60 40 N 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 59 39 N 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 59 39 N 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 58 38 N 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 58 38 N 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 58 38 N 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 57 37 N 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 57 37 N 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 56 36 N 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 55 35 N 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 55 35 N 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 56 36 N 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 58 38 N 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 61 41 NW 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 64 46 NW 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 66 49 NW 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 66 49 NW 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 67 50 NW 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 66 48 NW 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 66 47 NW 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 66 46 NW 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 64 44 NW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 62 42 NW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 60 40 NW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 58 38 NW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 57 37 N 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 57 37 N 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 56 36 N 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 56 36 N 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 56 36 N 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 56 36 N 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 56 36 N 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 56 36 N 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 56 36 N 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 56 36 N 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 57 37 NW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 60 40 NW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 63 44 NW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 66 47 NW 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 67 49 NW 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 67 49 NW 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 67 48 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 66 47 NW 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 64 44 NW 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 64 44 NW 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 64 44 N 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 65 45 N 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 65 45 NE 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 64 44 N 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 62 42 NW 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 61 41 NW 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 60 40 NW 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 59 39 N 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 58 38 N 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 58 38 N 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 58 38 N 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 57 37 N 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 57 37 N 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 57 37 N 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 58 38 N 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 61 41 N 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 64 44 N 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 66 47 W 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 66 48 W 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 67 49 W 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 65 46 NW 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 64 45 NW 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 62 42 NW 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 60 40 NW 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 59 39 NW 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 57 37 NW 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 57 37 N 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 57 37 N 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 58 38 N 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 59 39 NW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 60 40 NW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 61 41 NW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 62 42 N 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 62 42 N 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 61 41 N 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 61 41 N 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 60 40 N 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 59 39 N 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 60 40 N 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 61 41 N 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 64 44 N 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 66 48 NW 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 67 49 NW 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 66 48 NW 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 67 49 NW 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 67 48 NW 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 66 46 NW 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 66 46 NW 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 65 45 NW 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 64 44 NW 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 64 44 NW 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 63 43 NW 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 62 42 NW 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 61 41 E 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 60 40 E 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 58 38 E 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 58 38 N 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 58 38 N 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 59 39 N 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 59 39 N 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 58 38 N 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 56 36 N 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 56 36 NW 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 58 38 NW 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 63 44 NW 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 66 48 NW 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 68 51 NW 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 68 51 NW 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 69 52 NW 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 68 50 NW 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 67 48 NW 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 67 47 NW 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 66 46 NW 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 65 45 NW 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 63 43 N 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 60 40 N 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 58 38 N 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 58 38 NE 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 59 39 NE 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 61 41 NE 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 63 43 N 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 64 44 N 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 64 44 N 6 0 300 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst