Detailed Predictions for: Torrey Pines Gliderport
Launch Altitude (f): 300
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

 KNKX

Date/Time:

 15 MAR 2010

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
5 AM Mon 51 31 NE 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 50 30 NE 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 50 30 NE 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 54 34 E 4 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 64 45 E 4 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 70 53 E 4 576 498 198 Blue 5
11 AM Mon 72 56 N 2 654 576 276 Blue 8
12 Noon Mon 74 59 N 2 800 654 354 Blue 11
1 PM Mon 73 58 N 2 738 628 328 Blue 10
2 PM Mon 73 58 N 5 738 628 328 Blue 10
3 PM Mon 73 57 N 5 680 602 302 Blue 9
4 PM Mon 73 55 N 5 628 550 250 Blue 7
5 PM Mon 72 53 N 7 576 498 198 Blue 5
6 PM Mon 70 50 N 7 498 440 140 Blue 2
7 PM Mon 68 48 N 7 445 440 140 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 66 46 NE 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 66 46 NE 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 65 45 NE 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 64 44 NE 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 63 43 NE 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 61 41 NE 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 60 40 E 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 59 39 E 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 58 38 E 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 57 37 E 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 56 36 E 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 56 36 E 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 59 39 E 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 67 48 E 5 445 440 140 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 73 56 E 5 654 576 276 Blue 8
11 AM Tue 75 59 NE 2 800 654 354 Blue 11
12 Noon Tue 76 61 NE 2 923 738 438 Blue 13
1 PM Tue 75 60 NE 2 862 680 380 Blue 12
2 PM Tue 75 60 N 3 862 680 380 Blue 12
3 PM Tue 75 59 N 3 800 654 354 Blue 11
4 PM Tue 75 57 N 3 680 602 302 Blue 9
5 PM Tue 73 54 N 5 602 524 224 Blue 6
6 PM Tue 72 52 N 5 550 471 171 Blue 4
7 PM Tue 69 49 N 5 472 440 140 Blue 1
8 PM Tue 68 48 NE 6 445 440 140 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 67 47 NE 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 66 46 NE 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 65 45 E 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 63 43 E 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 62 42 E 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 60 40 E 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 60 40 E 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 59 39 E 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 58 38 E 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 56 36 E 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 56 36 E 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 59 39 E 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 66 47 E 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 70 52 E 5 550 471 171 Blue 4
11 AM Wed 72 56 NW 4 654 576 276 Blue 8
12 Noon Wed 73 58 NW 4 738 628 328 Blue 10
1 PM Wed 72 57 NW 4 680 602 302 Blue 9
2 PM Wed 72 57 NW 4 680 602 302 Blue 9
3 PM Wed 72 56 NW 4 654 576 276 Blue 8
4 PM Wed 72 54 NW 4 602 524 224 Blue 6
5 PM Wed 71 52 NW 6 550 471 171 Blue 4
6 PM Wed 69 49 NW 6 472 440 140 Blue 1
7 PM Wed 67 47 NW 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 66 46 NW 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 65 45 NW 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 64 44 NW 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 63 43 S 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 62 42 S 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 61 41 S 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 60 40 S 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 59 39 S 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 58 38 S 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 57 37 SE 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 56 36 SE 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 56 36 SE 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 58 38 SE 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 63 44 SE 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 67 49 SE 2 472 440 140 Blue 1
11 AM Thu 68 52 SW 4 550 471 171 Blue 4
12 Noon Thu 69 54 SW 4 602 524 224 Blue 6
1 PM Thu 68 53 SW 4 576 498 198 Blue 5
2 PM Thu 68 53 SW 4 576 498 198 Blue 5
3 PM Thu 68 52 SW 4 550 471 171 Blue 4
4 PM Thu 68 50 SW 4 498 440 140 Blue 2
5 PM Thu 67 48 W 8 445 440 140 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 65 45 W 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 63 43 W 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 62 42 W 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 61 41 W 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 61 41 W 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 60 40 S 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 59 39 S 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 58 38 S 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 57 37 S 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 56 36 S 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 55 35 S 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 54 34 SE 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 53 33 SE 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 53 33 SE 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 56 36 SE 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 62 43 SE 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 67 50 SE 2 498 440 140 Blue 2
11 AM Fri 68 52 SW 6 550 471 171 Blue 4
12 Noon Fri 69 54 SW 6 602 524 224 Blue 6
1 PM Fri 68 53 SW 6 576 498 198 Blue 5
2 PM Fri 68 53 SW 6 576 498 198 Blue 5
3 PM Fri 68 52 SW 6 550 471 171 Blue 4
4 PM Fri 68 50 SW 6 498 440 140 Blue 2
5 PM Fri 67 48 W 6 445 440 140 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 66 46 W 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 64 44 W 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 63 43 W 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 62 42 W 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 61 41 W 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 60 40 S 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 60 40 S 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 58 38 S 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 57 37 S 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 57 37 S 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 56 36 S 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 55 35 S 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 54 34 S 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 54 34 S 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 56 36 S 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 62 43 S 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 67 50 S 1 498 440 140 Blue 2
11 AM Sat 68 52 NW 2 550 471 171 Blue 4
12 Noon Sat 69 54 NW 2 602 524 224 Blue 6
1 PM Sat 68 53 NW 2 576 498 198 Blue 5
2 PM Sat 68 53 NW 2 576 498 198 Blue 5
3 PM Sat 68 52 NW 2 550 471 171 Blue 4
4 PM Sat 68 50 NW 2 498 440 140 Blue 2
5 PM Sat 67 48 NW 7 445 440 140 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 66 46 NW 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 64 44 NW 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 63 43 NW 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 62 42 NW 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 61 41 NW 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 60 40 S 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 60 40 S 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 58 38 S 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 57 37 S 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 57 37 S 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 56 36 S 1 0 300 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst