Detailed Predictions for: Torrey Pines Gliderport
Launch Altitude (f): 300
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

21 SEP 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Fri 62 42 N 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 63 43 N 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 62 42 N 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 63 43 N 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 66 46 NW 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 68 49 NW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 70 54 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 70 55 W 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 71 57 W 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 71 56 W 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 71 55 W 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 70 52 W 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 70 50 W 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 68 48 NW 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 67 47 NW 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 66 46 NW 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 66 46 NW 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 66 46 NW 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 65 45 NW 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 65 45 NW 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 65 45 NW 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 64 44 N 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 65 45 N 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 65 45 N 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 64 44 N 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 65 45 N 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 64 44 N 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 66 46 N 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 68 48 NW 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 71 51 NW 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 73 57 NW 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 73 58 NW 10 474 440 140 Blue 1
1 PM Sat 74 59 NW 12 512 440 140 Blue 2
2 PM Sat 74 59 NW 10 512 440 140 Blue 2
3 PM Sat 74 57 NW 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 73 55 NW 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 72 52 NW 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 70 50 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 68 48 NW 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 68 48 NW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 68 48 NW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 67 47 NW 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 66 46 NW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 67 47 NW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 67 47 NW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 66 46 NW 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 66 46 NW 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 66 46 N 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 65 45 N 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 66 46 N 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 65 45 N 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 66 46 N 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 68 48 N 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 71 51 W 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 72 56 W 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 72 57 W 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 73 58 W 9 474 440 140 Blue 1
2 PM Sun 73 58 W 9 474 440 140 Blue 1
3 PM Sun 73 57 W 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 72 54 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 71 52 W 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 68 48 W 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 67 47 W 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 66 46 W 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 66 46 W 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 65 45 W 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 65 45 NW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 65 45 NW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 65 45 N 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 64 44 N 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 64 44 N 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 64 44 N 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 63 43 S 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 64 44 S 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 64 44 S 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 65 45 SE 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 67 47 SE 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 70 50 SE 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 73 57 SW 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 73 58 SW 7 474 440 140 Blue 1
1 PM Mon 74 59 SW 7 512 440 140 Blue 2
2 PM Mon 75 60 W 8 548 440 140 Blue 3
3 PM Mon 74 58 W 8 474 440 140 Blue 1
4 PM Mon 73 55 W 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 72 53 W 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 69 49 W 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 67 47 W 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 66 46 NW 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 66 46 NW 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 66 46 NW 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 65 45 NW 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 65 45 NW 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 65 45 NW 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 64 44 E 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 65 45 E 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 64 44 E 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 63 43 E 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 64 44 E 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 64 44 E 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 64 44 N 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 67 47 N 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 70 50 N 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 72 57 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 72 58 W 7 474 440 140 Blue 1
1 PM Tue 73 59 W 7 512 440 140 Blue 2
2 PM Tue 74 59 W 8 512 440 140 Blue 2
3 PM Tue 73 57 W 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 72 54 W 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 71 52 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 69 49 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 68 48 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 67 47 NW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 67 47 NW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 66 46 NW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 66 46 NW 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 66 46 NW 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 66 46 NW 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 65 45 N 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 65 45 N 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 65 45 N 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 64 44 N 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 65 45 N 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 65 45 N 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 66 46 N 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 68 48 N 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 71 52 N 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 74 58 W 7 474 440 140 Blue 1
12 Noon Wed 74 59 W 7 512 440 140 Blue 2
1 PM Wed 74 60 W 7 548 440 140 Blue 3
2 PM Wed 76 61 W 9 583 474 174 Blue 4
3 PM Wed 75 59 W 9 512 440 140 Blue 2
4 PM Wed 74 56 W 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 73 54 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 70 50 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 69 49 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 68 48 NW 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 68 48 NW 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 67 47 NW 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 67 47 NW 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 67 47 NW 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 67 47 NW 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 66 46 NW 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 66 46 NW 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 66 46 NW 2 0 300 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst