Detailed Predictions for: Torrey Pines Gliderport
Launch Altitude (f): 300
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

17 NOV 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Sat 57 37 SE 3 0 456 156 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 58 38 E 3 0 456 156 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 57 37 E 5 0 456 156 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 57 37 E 5 0 456 156 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 60 40 SE 5 0 456 156 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 63 43 SE 2 0 456 156 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 65 47 SW 3 0 456 156 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 65 47 W 5 0 456 156 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 65 47 W 5 0 456 156 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 65 47 W 7 0 456 156 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 65 46 W 7 0 456 156 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 64 44 W 7 0 456 156 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 64 44 W 5 0 456 156 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 63 43 W 3 0 456 156 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 63 43 NW 2 0 456 156 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 62 42 N 1 0 456 156 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 61 41 N 1 0 456 156 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 61 41 N 1 0 456 156 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 60 40 NE 1 0 456 156 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 60 40 NE 1 0 456 156 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 59 39 NE 1 0 456 156 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 58 38 NE 2 0 456 156 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 59 39 E 1 0 456 156 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 58 38 NE 1 0 456 156 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 57 37 NE 2 0 456 156 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 58 38 NE 2 0 456 156 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 57 37 NE 3 0 456 156 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 57 37 NE 2 0 456 156 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 60 40 N 3 0 456 156 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 63 43 N 3 0 456 156 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 65 47 NW 5 0 456 156 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 65 47 NW 6 0 456 156 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 65 47 NW 7 0 456 156 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 65 47 NW 9 0 456 156 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 65 46 NW 9 0 456 156 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 64 44 NW 9 0 456 156 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 64 44 NW 7 0 456 156 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 63 43 NW 6 0 456 156 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 63 43 NW 6 0 456 156 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 62 42 NW 3 0 456 156 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 61 41 NW 2 0 456 156 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 61 41 N 2 0 456 156 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 60 40 NW 3 0 456 156 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 60 40 NW 2 0 456 156 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 59 39 N 2 0 456 156 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 58 38 N 3 0 456 156 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 59 39 N 3 0 456 156 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 58 38 N 2 0 456 156 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 57 37 NW 1 0 456 156 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 58 38 NW 1 0 456 156 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 57 37 NW 1 0 456 156 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 57 37 NW 2 0 456 156 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 61 41 NW 2 0 456 156 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 64 44 NW 2 0 456 156 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 67 48 W 6 0 456 156 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 67 49 W 6 0 456 156 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 66 48 W 6 0 456 156 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 67 48 W 7 0 456 156 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 67 48 W 7 0 456 156 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 66 46 W 7 0 456 156 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 66 46 W 6 0 456 156 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 64 44 W 6 0 456 156 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 65 45 W 6 0 456 156 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 63 43 W 3 0 456 156 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 63 43 W 3 0 456 156 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 62 42 W 3 0 456 156 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 61 41 W 1 0 456 156 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 61 41 W 1 0 456 156 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 60 40 W 1 0 456 156 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 59 39 E 2 0 456 156 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 60 40 E 2 0 456 156 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 59 39 E 2 0 456 156 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 58 38 SE 2 0 456 156 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 59 39 SE 2 0 456 156 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 58 38 SE 2 0 456 156 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 58 38 S 2 0 456 156 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 61 41 S 2 0 456 156 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 64 44 S 2 0 456 156 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 66 48 SW 5 0 456 156 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 66 48 SW 5 0 456 156 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 66 48 SW 5 0 456 156 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 67 49 W 7 0 456 156 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 66 47 W 7 0 456 156 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 65 45 W 7 0 456 156 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 65 45 W 6 0 456 156 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 64 44 W 6 0 456 156 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 64 44 W 6 0 456 156 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 63 43 W 1 0 456 156 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 62 42 W 1 0 456 156 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 62 42 W 1 0 456 156 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 61 41 SE 1 0 456 156 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 60 40 SE 1 0 456 156 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 60 40 SE 1 0 456 156 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 59 39 E 3 0 456 156 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 60 40 E 3 0 456 156 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 59 39 E 3 0 456 156 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 58 38 E 3 0 456 156 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 59 39 E 3 0 456 156 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 58 38 E 3 0 456 156 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 58 38 E 3 0 456 156 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 61 41 E 3 0 456 156 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 64 44 E 3 0 456 156 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 66 47 W 3 0 456 156 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 66 47 W 3 0 456 156 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 66 47 W 3 0 456 156 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 67 48 W 7 0 456 156 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 66 47 W 7 0 456 156 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 65 45 W 7 0 456 156 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 65 45 W 5 0 456 156 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 64 44 W 5 0 456 156 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 64 44 W 5 0 456 156 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 63 43 S 5 0 456 156 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 62 42 S 5 0 456 156 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 62 42 S 5 0 456 156 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 61 41 S 5 0 456 156 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 60 40 S 5 0 456 156 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 60 40 S 5 0 456 156 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 59 39 W 6 0 456 156 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 60 40 W 6 0 456 156 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 59 39 W 6 0 456 156 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 58 38 SW 3 0 456 156 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 59 39 SW 3 0 456 156 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 58 38 SW 3 0 456 156 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 58 38 SW 1 0 456 156 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 61 41 SW 1 0 456 156 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 63 43 SW 1 0 456 156 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 65 45 NW 5 0 456 156 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 65 46 NW 5 0 456 156 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 65 46 NW 5 0 456 156 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 66 47 NW 13 0 456 156 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 65 45 NW 13 0 456 156 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 64 44 NW 13 0 456 156 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 64 44 NW 14 0 456 156 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 63 43 NW 14 0 456 156 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 63 43 NW 14 0 456 156 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 62 42 NW 9 0 456 156 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 62 42 NW 9 0 456 156 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 61 41 NW 9 0 456 156 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 60 40 NW 8 0 456 156 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 60 40 NW 8 0 456 156 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 60 40 NW 8 0 456 156 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 59 39 N 5 0 456 156 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 60 40 N 5 0 456 156 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 59 39 N 5 0 456 156 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst