Detailed Predictions for: Torrey Pines Gliderport
Launch Altitude (f): 300
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

18 SEP 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Wed 63 43 NE 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 63 43 E 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 63 43 E 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 64 44 E 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 65 45 E 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 67 48 W 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 69 54 W 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 70 56 W 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 69 55 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 70 55 W 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 70 54 W 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 69 52 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 68 48 W 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 68 48 W 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 67 47 W 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 67 47 SW 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 66 46 SW 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 66 46 SW 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 66 46 S 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 66 46 S 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 65 45 S 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 64 44 S 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 64 44 S 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 63 43 SE 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 63 43 SE 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 63 43 SE 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 63 43 SE 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 64 44 SE 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 66 46 S 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 68 48 S 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 69 53 SW 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 70 55 SW 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 69 54 SW 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 70 54 W 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 69 52 W 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 69 51 W 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 68 49 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 67 47 W 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 67 47 W 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 66 46 W 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 66 46 SW 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 66 46 S 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 66 46 SE 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 66 46 SE 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 66 46 SE 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 66 46 SE 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 65 45 SE 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 65 45 SE 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 65 45 SE 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 64 44 SE 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 64 44 E 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 64 44 E 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 66 46 SE 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 68 48 SW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 70 55 W 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 71 57 W 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 71 57 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 71 57 W 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 71 55 W 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 71 54 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 71 52 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 70 50 W 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 71 51 W 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 71 51 W 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 71 51 W 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 71 51 S 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 71 51 S 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 70 50 S 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 69 49 S 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 68 48 S 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 67 47 S 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 66 46 S 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 65 45 SE 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 63 43 SE 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 62 42 SE 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 62 42 SE 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 65 45 SE 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 68 49 SE 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 71 56 W 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 73 59 W 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 74 60 W 5 467 440 140 Blue 1
2 PM Sat 74 60 W 7 467 440 140 Blue 1
3 PM Sat 73 57 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 73 56 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 74 55 W 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 73 53 W 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 72 52 W 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 70 50 SW 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 69 49 SW 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 69 49 SW 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 68 48 S 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 67 47 S 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 66 46 S 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 66 46 SE 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 65 45 SE 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 65 45 SE 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 64 44 S 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 64 44 S 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 64 44 S 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 66 46 N 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 68 48 N 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 71 52 N 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 74 58 W 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 75 60 W 5 467 440 140 Blue 1
1 PM Sun 74 59 W 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 74 58 SW 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 73 56 SW 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 72 54 SW 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 71 52 SW 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 70 50 SW 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 69 49 SW 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 68 48 S 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 68 48 S 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 67 47 S 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 66 46 S 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 66 46 S 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 64 44 S 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 63 43 S 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 62 42 S 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 62 42 S 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 62 42 S 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 64 44 S 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 66 46 S 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 68 48 S 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 69 49 S 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 69 49 S 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 70 53 SW 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 70 54 SW 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 71 55 SW 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 70 54 SW 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 71 54 SW 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 70 52 SW 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 70 51 SW 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 69 49 SW 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 68 48 SW 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 68 48 S 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 68 48 S 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 67 47 S 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 67 47 S 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 66 46 S 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 65 45 S 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 64 44 E 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 63 43 E 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 62 42 E 5 0 300 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst