Detailed Predictions for: Torrey Pines Gliderport
Launch Altitude (f): 300
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

25 MAR 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Mon 52 32 N 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 54 34 N 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 53 33 N 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 53 33 N 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 56 37 N 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 57 39 NW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 60 43 NW 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 61 45 NW 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 61 45 NW 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 61 46 NW 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 60 43 NW 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 60 42 NW 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 60 41 NW 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 58 38 NW 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 57 37 NW 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 57 37 NW 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 57 37 NW 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 57 37 N 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 56 36 N 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 55 35 NW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 54 34 NW 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 54 34 N 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 54 34 N 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 53 33 N 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 52 32 N 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 54 34 N 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 53 33 N 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 53 33 N 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 56 37 N 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 57 39 NW 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 60 43 NW 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 61 44 NW 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 61 44 NW 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 62 45 NW 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 61 43 NW 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 60 41 NW 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 61 41 NW 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 59 39 NW 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 58 38 NW 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 58 38 NW 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 58 38 NW 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 58 38 NW 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 57 37 NW 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 56 36 NW 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 56 36 NW 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 55 35 NW 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 56 36 NW 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 55 35 NW 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 54 34 NW 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 56 36 NW 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 55 35 NW 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 55 35 NW 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 57 37 NW 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 58 38 NW 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 61 43 NW 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 61 43 NW 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 61 44 NW 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 61 43 W 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 60 42 W 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 60 41 W 13 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 61 41 W 13 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 58 38 NW 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 57 37 NW 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 58 38 NW 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 57 37 NW 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 57 37 NW 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 56 36 NW 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 56 36 NW 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 55 35 NW 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 55 35 NW 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 55 35 N 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 54 34 N 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 53 33 N 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 54 34 N 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 54 34 N 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 54 34 N 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 56 37 N 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 57 39 N 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 59 43 W 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 59 44 W 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 60 45 W 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 60 45 W 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 59 43 W 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 58 40 W 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 59 40 NW 13 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 57 37 NW 13 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 56 36 NW 13 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 56 36 NW 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 56 36 NW 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 56 36 NW 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 55 35 SW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 54 34 SW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 54 34 SW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 53 33 S 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 54 34 S 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 53 33 S 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 52 32 SE 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 54 34 SE 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 53 33 SE 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 53 33 S 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 56 37 S 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 58 41 S 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 61 45 W 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 62 47 W 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 63 48 W 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 62 47 W 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 61 45 W 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 61 43 W 12 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 62 43 NW 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 59 39 NW 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 58 38 NW 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 58 38 N 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 58 38 N 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 58 38 N 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 56 36 SW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 56 36 SW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 56 36 SW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 55 35 SE 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 55 35 SE 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 54 34 SE 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 53 33 NE 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 56 36 NE 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 54 34 NE 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 54 34 NE 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 58 39 NE 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 61 44 NE 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 65 49 NE 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 66 51 NE 10 472 440 140 Blue 1
1 PM Sat 68 53 NE 10 516 450 150 Blue 3
2 PM Sat 67 52 NW 13 494 440 140 Blue 2
3 PM Sat 66 50 NW 13 450 440 140 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 65 47 NW 13 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 66 47 W 14 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 62 42 W 14 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 60 40 W 14 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 60 40 N 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 60 40 N 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 60 40 N 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 58 38 E 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 57 37 E 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 57 37 E 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 56 36 N 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 56 36 N 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 55 35 N 5 0 300 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst