Detailed Predictions for: Torrey Pines Gliderport
Launch Altitude (f): 300
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

21 JUL 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 62 42 NW 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 62 42 NW 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 62 42 NW 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 64 44 N 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 65 45 NW 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 68 48 NW 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 69 54 NW 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 69 55 NW 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 70 56 NW 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 70 56 W 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 70 55 W 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 69 52 W 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 68 49 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 68 48 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 66 46 W 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 65 45 W 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 64 44 W 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 64 44 NW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 64 44 NW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 64 44 NW 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 64 44 NW 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 63 43 NW 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 63 43 NW 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 63 43 NW 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 63 43 NW 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 63 43 NW 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 63 43 NW 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 64 44 NW 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 66 46 NW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 69 50 W 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 70 55 W 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 70 56 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 71 58 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 71 57 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 71 56 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 70 54 W 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 69 51 W 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 69 49 W 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 67 47 W 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 66 46 W 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 66 46 W 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 66 46 W 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 66 46 W 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 65 45 W 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 66 46 W 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 65 45 W 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 65 45 W 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 65 45 N 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 65 45 N 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 65 45 N 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 65 45 NW 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 66 46 NW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 68 49 NW 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 70 52 NW 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 72 55 W 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 71 55 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 72 56 W 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 72 56 W 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 72 55 W 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 71 53 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 70 51 W 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 70 50 W 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 68 48 W 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 67 47 W 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 67 47 W 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 67 47 W 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 67 47 W 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 66 46 NW 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 66 46 NW 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 66 46 NW 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 66 46 NW 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 66 46 NW 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 66 46 NW 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 66 46 NW 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 66 46 NW 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 67 47 W 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 69 50 W 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 71 54 W 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 72 56 W 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 72 57 W 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 73 58 W 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 73 58 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 73 57 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 72 55 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 71 52 SW 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 70 50 SW 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 69 49 SW 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 68 48 S 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 67 47 S 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 67 47 S 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 67 47 S 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 66 46 S 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 66 46 S 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 66 46 S 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 66 46 S 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 66 46 S 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 66 46 S 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 66 46 S 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 66 46 S 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 68 48 S 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 69 50 S 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 72 55 S 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 73 58 SW 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 73 59 SW 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 74 60 SW 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 74 60 SW 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 74 59 SW 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 73 56 SW 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 72 54 SW 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 71 51 SW 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 68 48 SW 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 67 47 SW 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 67 47 SW 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 66 46 SW 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 66 46 S 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 66 46 S 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 66 46 S 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 65 45 S 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 65 45 S 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 65 45 S 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 65 45 SW 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 65 45 SW 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 65 45 SW 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 66 46 S 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 68 49 S 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 71 53 S 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 72 57 SW 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 72 59 SW 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 73 60 SW 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 73 59 SW 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 73 58 SW 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 72 56 SW 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 70 52 SW 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 69 50 SW 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 67 47 SW 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 65 45 SW 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 65 45 SW 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 64 44 SW 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 64 44 S 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 64 44 S 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 64 44 S 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 64 44 S 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 63 43 S 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 63 43 S 2 0 300 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst