Detailed Predictions for: Torrey Pines Gliderport
Launch Altitude (f): 300
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

21 JAN 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Sun 49 29 SE 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 48 28 SE 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 47 27 SE 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 48 28 SE 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 51 31 SE 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 55 36 SE 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 58 39 S 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 60 42 S 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 61 43 SW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 61 43 W 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 61 42 W 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 60 40 W 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 61 41 W 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 60 40 W 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 59 39 NW 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 57 37 N 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 56 36 N 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 54 34 NE 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 53 33 N 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 52 32 NE 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 51 31 NE 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 50 30 NE 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 51 31 N 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 51 31 NE 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 50 30 E 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 49 29 E 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 48 28 E 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 49 29 E 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 52 32 E 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 56 36 SE 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 60 41 W 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 62 44 W 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 64 46 W 3 448 440 140 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 64 46 W 7 448 440 140 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 63 44 W 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 63 43 NW 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 64 44 NW 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 63 43 NW 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 62 42 NW 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 60 40 N 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 58 38 N 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 56 36 N 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 54 34 N 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 52 32 N 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 51 31 N 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 52 32 NE 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 53 33 NE 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 55 35 NE 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 55 35 NE 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 53 33 E 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 50 30 E 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 50 30 E 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 54 34 E 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 59 40 E 1 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 64 46 S 2 448 440 140 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 66 48 SW 3 492 440 140 Blue 2
12 Noon Tue 66 49 W 5 515 448 148 Blue 3
1 PM Tue 66 48 W 7 492 440 140 Blue 2
2 PM Tue 66 48 W 7 492 440 140 Blue 2
3 PM Tue 67 48 NW 7 492 440 140 Blue 2
4 PM Tue 66 46 NW 10 448 440 140 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 67 47 NW 9 470 440 140 Blue 1
6 PM Tue 66 46 NW 8 448 440 140 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 65 45 N 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 63 43 N 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 61 41 E 2 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 59 39 SE 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 56 36 SE 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 55 35 E 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 54 34 E 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 55 35 SE 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 55 35 SE 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 55 35 E 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 53 33 E 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 52 32 E 6 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 54 34 S 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 58 38 S 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 63 44 S 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 67 49 W 3 515 448 148 Blue 3
11 AM Wed 68 50 W 3 576 470 170 Blue 4
12 Noon Wed 67 49 W 3 515 448 148 Blue 3
1 PM Wed 66 48 W 3 492 440 140 Blue 2
2 PM Wed 65 47 W 3 470 440 140 Blue 1
3 PM Wed 65 46 W 3 448 440 140 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 64 44 W 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 63 43 W 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 62 42 W 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 60 40 SW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 59 39 SW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 58 38 SW 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 57 37 S 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 56 36 S 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 55 35 S 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 54 34 S 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 54 34 S 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 53 33 S 3 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 53 33 S 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 54 34 S 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 55 35 S 5 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 56 36 W 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 57 37 W 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 58 38 W 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 58 39 NW 15 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 58 39 NW 15 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 57 38 NW 15 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 56 37 NW 17 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 57 38 NW 17 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 58 38 NW 17 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 59 39 NW 17 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 60 40 NW 17 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 60 40 NW 17 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 60 40 NW 15 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 59 39 NW 15 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 58 38 NW 15 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 56 36 NW 13 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 55 35 NW 13 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 54 34 NW 13 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 53 33 N 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 52 32 N 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 52 32 N 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 51 31 NE 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 50 30 NE 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 49 29 NE 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 50 30 N 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 52 32 N 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 56 37 N 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 58 40 NW 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 59 41 NW 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 59 41 NW 10 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 59 41 NW 13 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 59 40 NW 13 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 60 41 NW 13 0 300 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 61 41 NW 13 0 300 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 61 41 NW 13 0 300 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 60 40 NW 13 0 300 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 58 38 N 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 56 36 N 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 55 35 N 9 0 300 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 54 34 E 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 54 34 E 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 54 34 E 7 0 300 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 54 34 E 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 53 33 E 8 0 300 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 51 31 E 8 0 300 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst