Detailed Predictions for: Torrey Pines Gliderport
Launch Altitude (f): 300
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Wed 54 34 S 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Wed 55 35 SE 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Wed 55 35 SE 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Wed 54 34 SE 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Wed 55 35 SE 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Wed 58 38 SE 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Wed 60 40 S 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Wed 62 42 S 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Wed 63 43 S 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Wed 62 42 S 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Wed 63 43 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Wed 63 43 S 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Wed 62 42 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Wed 61 41 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Wed 60 40 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Wed 59 39 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Wed 59 39 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Wed 59 39 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Wed 58 38 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Wed 57 37 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Thu 57 37 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Thu 56 36 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Thu 56 36 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Thu 56 36 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Thu 55 35 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Thu 56 36 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 56 36 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 55 35 S 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 56 36 S 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 58 38 S 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 59 39 S 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 60 40 S 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 61 41 S 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 60 40 S 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 61 41 S 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 61 41 S 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 60 40 S 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 59 39 S 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 58 38 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 58 38 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 58 38 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 57 37 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 56 36 NW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 56 36 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 56 36 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 55 35 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 55 35 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 55 35 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 54 34 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 55 35 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 55 35 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 54 34 W 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 55 35 W 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 57 37 S 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 59 40 SW 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 60 42 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 61 43 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 60 42 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 60 41 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 61 41 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 60 40 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 58 38 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 58 38 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 57 37 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 57 37 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 56 36 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 55 35 NW 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 55 35 NW 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 54 34 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 54 34 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 54 34 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 53 33 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 52 32 NE 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 54 34 NE 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 54 34 NE 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 52 32 NE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 54 34 NE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 58 39 NE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 62 44 NE 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 65 47 NE 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 66 49 NE 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 67 49 NE 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 66 48 NE 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 66 47 NE 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 65 45 NE 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 63 43 NE 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 62 42 NE 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 60 40 NE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 60 40 NE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 59 39 NE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 58 38 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 57 37 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 57 37 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 56 36 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 56 36 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 55 35 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 53 33 NE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 54 34 NE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 54 34 NE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 53 33 SW 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 55 35 SW 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 59 40 SW 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 62 43 W 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 64 46 W 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 65 47 W 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 66 48 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 65 46 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 65 45 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 64 44 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 62 42 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 61 41 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 59 39 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 59 39 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 58 38 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 57 37 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 56 36 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 56 36 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 55 35 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 55 35 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 54 34 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 52 32 E 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 53 33 E 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 53 33 E 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 52 32 NE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 54 34 NE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 57 38 NE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 60 42 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 62 44 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 63 46 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 64 46 E 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 63 45 E 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 63 44 E 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 62 42 E 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 60 40 E 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 59 39 E 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 57 37 E 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 57 37 E 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 56 36 E 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 55 35 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 54 34 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 54 34 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 53 33 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 53 33 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 52 32 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst