Detailed Predictions for: Crestline
Launch Altitude (f): 5200
LZ Altitude (f): 1700
Sounding

Station:

 KNKX

Date/Time:

 3 SEP 2010

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
5 AM Fri 70 62 N 8 3881 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 71 63 N 8 3881 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 73 65 N 8 3881 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 76 68 N 7 3881 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 84 78 N 7 3881 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 92 88 N 7 6431 5200 0 Blue 3
11 AM Fri 99 96 SW 2 13933 13566 8366 Blue 11
12 Noon Fri 103 102 SW 2 17483 14479 9279 Blue 17
1 PM Fri 104 103 SW 2 18507 14682 9482 Blue 18
2 PM Fri 104 103 SW 8 18507 14682 9482 Blue 18
3 PM Fri 104 101 SW 8 14965 14275 9075 Blue 16
4 PM Fri 102 97 SW 8 14139 13656 8456 Blue 12
5 PM Fri 99 93 SW 9 13594 10484 5284 Blue 8
6 PM Fri 92 84 SW 9 4517 5200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 85 77 SW 9 3881 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 79 71 SE 2 3881 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 76 68 SE 2 3881 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 74 66 SE 2 3881 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 74 66 E 2 3881 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 73 65 E 2 3881 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 73 65 E 2 3881 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 72 64 N 6 3881 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 71 63 N 6 3881 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 70 62 N 6 3881 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 70 62 N 8 3881 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 71 63 N 8 3881 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 72 64 N 8 3881 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 76 68 N 5 3881 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 84 78 N 5 3881 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 93 89 N 5 7957 5377 177 Blue 4
11 AM Sat 100 97 SW 5 14139 13656 8456 Blue 12
12 Noon Sat 103 102 SW 5 17483 14479 9279 Blue 17
1 PM Sat 103 102 SW 5 17483 14479 9279 Blue 17
2 PM Sat 104 103 W 8 18507 14682 9482 Blue 18
3 PM Sat 104 101 W 8 14965 14275 9075 Blue 16
4 PM Sat 103 98 W 8 14344 13746 8546 Blue 13
5 PM Sat 99 93 SW 13 13594 10484 5284 Blue 8
6 PM Sat 92 84 SW 13 4517 5200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 83 75 SW 13 3881 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 76 68 S 7 3881 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 72 64 S 7 3881 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 71 63 S 7 3881 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 70 62 W 2 3881 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 69 61 W 2 3881 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 68 60 W 2 3881 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 68 60 SW 1 3881 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 67 59 SW 1 3881 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 66 58 SW 1 3881 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 66 58 S 3 3881 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 67 59 S 3 3881 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 69 61 S 3 3881 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 73 65 S 3 3881 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 78 72 S 3 3881 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 84 80 S 3 3881 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 89 86 S 9 5396 5200 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Sun 92 91 S 9 13382 6380 1180 Blue 6
1 PM Sun 94 93 S 9 13594 10484 5284 Blue 8
2 PM Sun 93 92 S 9 13504 7030 1830 Blue 7
3 PM Sun 94 91 S 9 13382 6380 1180 Blue 6
4 PM Sun 91 86 S 9 5396 5200 0 Blue 1
5 PM Sun 87 81 SW 12 3881 5200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 85 77 SW 12 3881 5200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 77 69 SW 12 3881 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 69 61 SW 12 3881 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 65 57 SW 12 3881 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 63 55 SW 12 3881 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 62 54 SE 5 3881 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 61 53 SE 5 3881 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 60 52 SE 5 3881 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 59 51 SE 5 3881 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 59 51 SE 5 3881 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 59 51 SE 5 3881 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 58 50 S 3 3881 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 57 49 S 3 3881 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 59 51 S 3 3881 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 67 59 S 3 3881 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 75 69 S 3 3881 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 79 75 S 3 3881 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 82 79 S 13 3881 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 84 83 S 13 4063 5200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 86 85 S 13 4963 5200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 86 85 S 13 4963 5200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 85 82 S 13 3881 5200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 85 80 S 13 3881 5200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 83 77 SW 10 3881 5200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 78 70 SW 10 3881 5200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 72 64 SW 10 3881 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 65 57 SW 10 3881 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 62 54 SW 10 3881 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 60 52 SW 10 3881 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 59 51 S 6 3881 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 58 50 S 6 3881 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 57 49 S 6 3881 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 57 49 S 6 3881 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 56 48 S 6 3881 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 56 48 S 6 3881 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 56 48 S 5 3881 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 55 47 S 5 3881 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 57 49 S 5 3881 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 64 56 S 5 3881 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 71 65 S 5 3881 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 75 71 S 5 3881 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 78 75 S 12 3881 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 80 79 S 12 3881 5200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 82 81 S 12 3881 5200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 82 81 S 12 3881 5200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 81 78 S 12 3881 5200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 81 76 S 12 3881 5200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 79 73 S 13 3881 5200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 75 67 S 13 3881 5200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 68 60 S 13 3881 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 62 54 S 13 3881 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 59 51 S 13 3881 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 57 49 S 13 3881 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 56 48 S 6 3881 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 55 47 S 6 3881 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 54 46 S 6 3881 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 54 46 S 6 3881 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 53 45 S 6 3881 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 53 45 S 6 3881 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 53 45 S 5 3881 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 52 44 S 5 3881 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 54 46 S 5 3881 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 61 53 S 5 3881 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 68 62 S 5 3881 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 71 67 S 5 3881 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 74 71 S 12 3881 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 76 75 S 12 3881 5200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 78 77 S 12 3881 5200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 78 77 S 12 3881 5200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 77 74 S 12 3881 5200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 77 72 S 12 3881 5200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 76 70 SW 15 3881 5200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 71 63 SW 15 3881 5200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 66 58 SW 15 3881 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 60 52 SW 15 3881 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 57 49 SW 15 3881 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 55 47 SW 15 3881 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 55 47 S 5 3881 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 54 46 S 5 3881 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 53 45 S 5 3881 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 53 45 S 5 3881 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 52 44 S 5 3881 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 52 44 S 5 3881 5200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst