Detailed Predictions for: Crestline
Launch Altitude (f): 5200
LZ Altitude (f): 1700
Sounding

Station:

 KNKX

Date/Time:

 4 FEB 2012

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
4 AM Sat 29 21 N 18 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 29 21 N 18 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 28 20 N 18 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 28 20 N 18 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 30 22 N 18 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 33 26 N 18 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 37 31 N 20 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 40 34 N 20 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 43 38 N 20 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 47 41 N 9 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 49 43 N 9 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 49 42 N 9 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 49 41 N 9 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 48 40 N 9 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 47 39 N 9 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 46 38 N 15 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 45 37 N 15 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 44 36 N 15 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 43 35 NE 20 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 42 34 NE 20 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 41 33 NE 20 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 40 32 N 21 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 39 31 N 21 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 38 30 N 21 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 38 30 N 22 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 38 30 N 22 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 37 29 N 22 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 37 29 N 23 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 38 30 N 23 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 40 33 N 23 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 42 36 N 20 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 43 37 N 20 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 45 39 N 20 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 47 41 N 15 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 48 41 N 15 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 48 41 N 15 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 48 40 N 13 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 48 40 N 13 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 46 38 N 13 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 45 37 N 14 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 45 37 N 14 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 44 36 N 14 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 43 35 N 15 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 43 35 N 15 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 41 33 N 15 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 40 32 N 16 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 39 31 N 16 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 39 31 N 16 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 39 31 N 12 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 38 30 N 12 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 38 30 N 12 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 38 30 N 12 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 39 31 N 12 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 41 34 N 12 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 42 35 S 1 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 44 38 S 1 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 45 39 S 1 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 47 41 S 1 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 49 42 S 1 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 48 40 S 1 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 48 40 SW 1 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 48 40 SW 1 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 47 39 SW 1 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 46 38 SW 1 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 46 38 SW 1 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 45 37 SW 1 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 44 36 NE 2 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 44 36 NE 2 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 43 35 NE 2 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 42 34 NE 2 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 41 33 NE 2 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 41 33 NE 2 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 41 33 S 3 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 40 32 S 3 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 40 32 S 3 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 40 32 S 3 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 40 32 S 3 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 41 33 S 3 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 41 34 E 8 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 42 35 E 8 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 42 35 E 8 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 43 36 E 8 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 43 36 E 8 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 42 34 E 8 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 42 34 SW 3 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 42 34 SW 3 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 41 33 SW 3 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 40 32 SW 3 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 40 32 SW 3 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 39 31 SW 3 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 39 31 NE 7 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 38 30 NE 7 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 37 29 NE 7 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 37 29 NE 7 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 36 28 NE 7 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 36 28 NE 7 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 36 28 N 9 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 35 27 N 9 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 35 27 N 9 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 35 27 N 9 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 36 28 N 9 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 37 29 N 9 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 39 32 N 13 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 40 33 N 13 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 41 35 N 13 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 43 36 N 13 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 44 37 N 13 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 43 35 N 13 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 43 35 NE 14 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 43 35 NE 14 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 42 34 NE 14 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 42 34 NE 14 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 41 33 NE 14 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 41 33 NE 14 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 40 32 NE 16 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 40 32 NE 16 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 39 31 NE 16 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 38 30 NE 16 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 38 30 NE 16 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 38 30 NE 16 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 38 30 NE 12 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 37 29 NE 12 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 37 29 NE 12 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 37 29 NE 12 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 38 30 NE 12 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 40 33 NE 12 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 42 36 N 15 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 44 39 N 15 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 46 41 N 15 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 49 44 N 15 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 50 44 N 15 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 50 43 N 15 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 50 42 N 14 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 50 42 N 14 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 49 41 N 14 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 48 40 N 14 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 48 40 N 14 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 47 39 N 14 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 47 39 NE 14 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 46 38 NE 14 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 45 37 NE 14 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 45 37 NE 14 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 44 36 NE 14 2592 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 44 36 NE 14 2592 5200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst