Detailed Predictions for: Crestline
Launch Altitude (f): 5200
LZ Altitude (f): 1700
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Wed 35 33 S 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Wed 35 33 S 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Wed 35 33 S 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Wed 37 35 SE 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Wed 37 35 S 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Wed 38 36 S 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Wed 39 37 S 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Wed 40 38 S 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Wed 40 38 S 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Wed 42 40 SE 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Wed 41 39 S 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Wed 41 39 S 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Wed 41 39 S 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Wed 41 39 S 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Wed 42 40 S 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Wed 42 40 S 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Wed 42 40 S 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Wed 42 40 S 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Wed 42 40 S 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Wed 42 40 S 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Thu 42 40 S 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Thu 43 41 S 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Thu 43 41 S 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Thu 43 41 S 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Thu 43 41 S 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Thu 43 41 S 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 43 41 S 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 44 42 S 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 44 42 S 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 44 42 S 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 44 42 S 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 44 42 S 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 45 43 S 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 45 43 S 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 44 42 S 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 45 43 S 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 44 42 S 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 41 39 S 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 41 39 S 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 41 39 S 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 41 39 S 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 41 39 S 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 42 40 S 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 43 41 S 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 43 41 S 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 40 38 S 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 39 37 S 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 38 36 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 38 36 N 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 38 36 N 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 37 35 N 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 39 37 N 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 39 37 N 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 40 38 N 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 41 40 N 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 42 42 N 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 42 42 N 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 44 44 N 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 43 42 N 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 44 42 N 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 43 41 N 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 42 40 N 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 42 40 N 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 42 40 N 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 42 40 N 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 42 40 N 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 42 40 N 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 43 41 N 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 43 41 N 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 41 39 N 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 40 38 N 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 40 38 N 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 40 38 N 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 39 37 N 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 39 37 N 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 42 40 N 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 42 40 N 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 43 42 N 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 45 44 N 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 45 45 N 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 47 47 N 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 48 48 N 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 49 48 N 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 49 47 N 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 48 46 NE 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 46 44 NE 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 46 44 NE 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 46 44 NE 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 46 44 NE 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 46 44 NE 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 47 45 NE 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 47 45 NE 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 47 45 NE 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 45 43 NE 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 45 43 NE 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 44 42 NE 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 44 42 NE 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 43 41 NE 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 43 41 NE 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 46 44 NE 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 46 44 NE 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 47 46 NE 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 50 49 NE 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 50 49 NE 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 52 52 NE 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 53 52 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 54 53 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 54 52 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 51 49 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 47 45 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 47 45 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 47 45 N 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 47 45 N 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 47 45 N 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 50 48 N 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 50 48 N 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 50 48 N 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 45 43 N 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 44 42 N 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 42 40 N 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 42 40 N 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 41 39 N 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 40 38 N 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 42 40 NE 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 42 40 NE 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 42 40 NE 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 44 43 NE 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 44 44 NE 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 45 45 NE 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 46 46 NE 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 46 45 NE 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 46 44 NE 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 44 42 NE 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 40 38 NE 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 40 38 NE 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 40 38 NE 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 40 38 NE 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 40 38 NE 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 42 40 NE 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 43 41 NE 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 43 41 NE 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 38 36 NE 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 37 35 NE 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 36 34 NE 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst