Detailed Predictions for: Crestline
Launch Altitude (f): 5200
LZ Altitude (f): 1700
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

22 APR 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 57 55 N 10 2680 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 58 56 N 10 2680 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 60 58 N 9 2680 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 62 61 N 9 2680 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 64 64 N 7 2680 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 66 68 W 5 5848 5200 0 Blue 2
11 AM Sun 68 71 SW 5 7746 5820 620 Blue 4
12 Noon Sun 70 74 SW 6 11701 7631 2431 Blue 7
1 PM Sun 72 77 SW 8 11992 11669 6469 Blue 10
2 PM Sun 73 77 SW 10 11992 11669 6469 Blue 10
3 PM Sun 72 75 SW 12 11788 9081 3881 Blue 8
4 PM Sun 72 73 SW 13 11514 6813 1613 Blue 6
5 PM Sun 70 69 SW 14 6232 5200 0 Blue 3
6 PM Sun 67 65 SW 13 3561 5200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 64 62 S 10 2680 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 61 59 S 7 2680 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 59 57 SE 6 2680 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 58 56 SE 7 2680 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 58 56 SE 6 2680 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 58 56 SE 5 2680 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 58 56 SE 5 2680 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 57 55 E 2 2680 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 57 55 E 2 2680 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 56 54 E 2 2680 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 56 54 NE 2 2680 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 58 56 NE 2 2680 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 60 58 E 2 2680 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 62 61 SE 1 2680 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 64 64 S 1 2680 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 65 67 S 2 5384 5200 0 Blue 1
11 AM Mon 66 70 S 6 6894 5362 162 Blue 3
12 Noon Mon 67 72 S 7 9313 6208 1008 Blue 5
1 PM Mon 69 74 S 8 11701 7631 2431 Blue 7
2 PM Mon 70 75 S 10 11788 9081 3881 Blue 8
3 PM Mon 70 73 SW 12 11514 6813 1613 Blue 6
4 PM Mon 71 72 SW 13 9313 6208 1008 Blue 5
5 PM Mon 69 68 SW 12 5848 5200 0 Blue 2
6 PM Mon 67 65 S 9 3561 5200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 64 62 S 7 2680 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 61 59 S 5 2680 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 60 58 S 3 2680 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 59 57 SE 3 2680 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 58 56 SE 3 2680 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 58 56 SE 3 2680 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 58 56 SE 2 2680 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 57 55 E 2 2680 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 56 54 E 2 2680 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 55 53 NE 2 2680 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 55 53 NE 3 2680 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 57 55 N 5 2680 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 60 58 NE 3 2680 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 63 62 N 5 2680 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 65 65 N 3 3561 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 67 69 N 2 6232 5200 0 Blue 3
11 AM Tue 68 70 SW 3 6894 5362 162 Blue 3
12 Noon Tue 70 73 S 7 11514 6813 1613 Blue 6
1 PM Tue 71 74 S 7 11701 7631 2431 Blue 7
2 PM Tue 72 75 SW 10 11788 9081 3881 Blue 8
3 PM Tue 72 74 SW 12 11701 7631 2431 Blue 7
4 PM Tue 73 73 SW 13 11514 6813 1613 Blue 6
5 PM Tue 71 70 SW 13 6894 5362 162 Blue 3
6 PM Tue 67 65 SW 10 3561 5200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 62 60 S 8 2680 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 58 56 S 6 2680 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 56 54 S 6 2680 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 56 54 S 6 2680 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 56 54 S 5 2680 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 56 54 S 5 2680 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 56 54 S 5 2680 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 55 53 S 1 2680 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 54 52 S 1 2680 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 53 51 S 1 2680 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 53 51 SE 2 2680 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 55 53 SE 2 2680 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 59 57 SE 2 2680 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 62 61 S 5 2680 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 62 62 S 5 2680 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 62 63 S 5 2680 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 62 65 S 7 3561 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 63 67 S 7 5384 5200 0 Blue 1
1 PM Wed 65 69 S 7 6232 5200 0 Blue 3
2 PM Wed 67 71 SW 12 7746 5820 620 Blue 4
3 PM Wed 68 70 SW 12 6894 5362 162 Blue 3
4 PM Wed 68 69 SW 12 6232 5200 0 Blue 3
5 PM Wed 66 65 SW 13 3561 5200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 64 62 SW 13 2680 5200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 61 59 SW 13 2680 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 58 56 S 8 2680 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 57 55 S 8 2680 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 57 55 S 8 2680 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 56 54 S 3 2680 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 56 54 S 3 2680 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 55 53 S 3 2680 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 54 52 S 1 2680 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 53 51 S 1 2680 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 52 50 S 1 2680 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 52 50 S 2 2680 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 54 52 S 2 2680 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 56 54 S 2 2680 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 58 57 S 5 2680 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 60 60 S 5 2680 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 62 64 S 5 2680 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 64 67 S 7 5384 5200 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Thu 66 70 S 7 6894 5362 162 Blue 3
1 PM Thu 67 71 S 7 7746 5820 620 Blue 4
2 PM Thu 68 72 S 10 9313 6208 1008 Blue 5
3 PM Thu 69 71 S 10 7746 5820 620 Blue 4
4 PM Thu 69 70 S 10 6894 5362 162 Blue 3
5 PM Thu 67 66 SW 13 4539 5200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 65 63 SW 13 2680 5200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 62 60 SW 13 2680 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 60 58 S 9 2680 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 58 56 S 9 2680 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 58 56 S 9 2680 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 57 55 S 5 2680 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 56 54 S 5 2680 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 55 53 S 5 2680 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 54 52 S 3 2680 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 53 51 S 3 2680 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 52 50 S 3 2680 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 52 50 S 5 2680 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 52 50 S 5 2680 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 52 50 S 5 2680 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 54 53 S 7 2680 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 55 55 S 7 2680 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 58 60 S 7 2680 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 60 64 S 9 2680 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 63 68 S 9 5848 5200 0 Blue 2
1 PM Fri 65 70 S 9 6894 5362 162 Blue 3
2 PM Fri 67 71 S 13 7746 5820 620 Blue 4
3 PM Fri 67 70 S 13 6894 5362 162 Blue 3
4 PM Fri 66 67 S 13 5384 5200 0 Blue 1
5 PM Fri 65 64 S 15 2680 5200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 63 61 S 15 2680 5200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 60 58 S 15 2680 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 58 56 S 10 2680 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 56 54 S 10 2680 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 55 53 S 10 2680 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 54 52 S 5 2680 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 53 51 S 5 2680 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 53 51 S 5 2680 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 52 50 S 2 2680 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 52 50 S 2 2680 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 51 49 S 2 2680 5200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst