Detailed Predictions for: Crestline
Launch Altitude (f): 5200
LZ Altitude (f): 1700
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

18 MAY 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 45 43 N 8 3012 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 45 43 N 8 3012 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 47 45 N 7 3012 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 50 49 N 2 3979 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 51 52 SW 1 4188 5200 0 Blue 3
10 AM Sat 54 57 S 3 5294 5200 0 Blue 8
11 AM Sat 54 56 S 8 5181 5200 0 Blue 7
12 Noon Sat 56 59 S 9 5591 5200 0 Blue 10
1 PM Sat 56 59 S 10 5591 5200 0 Blue 10
2 PM Sat 53 56 S 14 5181 5200 0 Blue 7
3 PM Sat 52 54 SW 15 4867 5200 0 Blue 5
4 PM Sat 52 52 SW 16 4188 5200 0 Blue 3
5 PM Sat 51 49 SW 17 3979 5200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 49 47 SW 17 3199 5200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 46 44 SW 17 3012 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 44 42 SW 16 3012 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 43 41 S 14 3012 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 42 40 S 13 3012 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 42 40 S 12 3012 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 41 39 S 12 3012 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 41 39 S 13 3012 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 42 40 S 12 3012 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 42 40 S 13 3012 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 41 39 S 13 3012 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 41 39 S 14 3012 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 41 39 S 14 3012 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 42 40 S 14 3012 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 43 41 S 14 3012 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 44 43 S 13 3012 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 45 44 S 13 3012 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 45 46 S 13 3012 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 45 46 S 13 3012 5200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 46 47 S 14 3199 5200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 45 46 S 15 3012 5200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 44 44 SW 16 3012 5200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 44 43 SW 16 3012 5200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 44 42 SW 17 3012 5200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 43 41 SW 17 3012 5200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 42 40 SW 16 3012 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 41 39 SW 15 3012 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 41 39 SW 14 3012 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 40 38 S 12 3012 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 40 38 S 10 3012 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 40 38 S 8 3012 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 40 38 S 7 3012 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 41 39 S 7 3012 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 41 39 S 6 3012 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 41 39 S 6 3012 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 41 39 S 6 3012 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 40 38 SW 6 3012 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 42 40 W 6 3012 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 44 43 W 6 3012 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 46 46 W 7 3012 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 48 50 SW 8 4087 5200 0 Blue 1
11 AM Mon 48 52 S 10 4188 5200 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Mon 49 54 S 13 4867 5200 0 Blue 5
1 PM Mon 50 55 SW 15 5069 5200 0 Blue 6
2 PM Mon 48 52 SW 17 4188 5200 0 Blue 3
3 PM Mon 47 50 SW 18 4087 5200 0 Blue 1
4 PM Mon 47 48 SW 20 3623 5200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 47 47 SW 20 3199 5200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 46 44 SW 18 3012 5200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 44 42 S 17 3012 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 43 41 S 15 3012 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 42 40 S 14 3012 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 42 40 S 13 3012 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 42 40 S 12 3012 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 41 39 S 10 3012 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 41 39 S 10 3012 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 42 40 S 12 3012 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 42 40 S 12 3012 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 41 39 SE 13 3012 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 41 39 SE 13 3012 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 41 39 SE 13 3012 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 42 40 SE 13 3012 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 43 41 S 12 3012 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 44 43 S 12 3012 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 45 45 S 12 3012 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 45 45 S 14 3012 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 46 47 S 14 3199 5200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 46 47 S 14 3199 5200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 44 44 SW 23 3012 5200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 44 44 SW 23 3012 5200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 44 43 SW 23 3012 5200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 44 42 W 16 3012 5200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 43 41 W 16 3012 5200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 41 39 W 16 3012 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 40 38 NW 9 3012 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 40 38 NW 9 3012 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 40 38 NW 9 3012 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 39 37 NW 15 3012 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 39 37 NW 15 3012 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 39 37 NW 15 3012 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 40 38 NW 16 3012 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 40 38 NW 16 3012 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 40 38 NW 16 3012 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 40 38 NW 10 3012 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 40 38 NW 10 3012 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 42 40 NW 10 3012 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 44 42 NW 5 3012 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 45 44 NW 5 3012 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 47 47 NW 5 3199 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 48 50 S 8 4087 5200 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Wed 50 53 S 8 4479 5200 0 Blue 4
1 PM Wed 50 53 S 8 4479 5200 0 Blue 4
2 PM Wed 48 50 SW 12 4087 5200 0 Blue 1
3 PM Wed 48 49 SW 12 3979 5200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 48 48 SW 12 3623 5200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 48 47 SW 15 3199 5200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 47 45 SW 15 3012 5200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 45 43 SW 15 3012 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 44 42 S 10 3012 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 44 42 S 10 3012 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 44 42 S 10 3012 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 43 41 N 5 3012 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 43 41 N 5 3012 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 43 41 N 5 3012 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 44 42 N 9 3012 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 44 42 N 9 3012 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 44 42 N 9 3012 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 44 42 N 13 3012 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 44 42 N 13 3012 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 46 44 N 13 3012 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 49 48 N 16 3623 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 50 50 N 16 4087 5200 0 Blue 1
10 AM Thu 53 55 N 16 5069 5200 0 Blue 6
11 AM Thu 53 56 N 10 5181 5200 0 Blue 7
12 Noon Thu 56 59 N 10 5591 5200 0 Blue 10
1 PM Thu 55 58 N 10 5426 5200 0 Blue 9
2 PM Thu 54 57 SW 10 5294 5200 0 Blue 8
3 PM Thu 53 55 SW 10 5069 5200 0 Blue 6
4 PM Thu 53 54 SW 10 4867 5200 0 Blue 5
5 PM Thu 52 51 SW 16 4137 5200 0 Blue 2
6 PM Thu 51 49 SW 16 3979 5200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 49 47 SW 16 3199 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 48 46 S 8 3012 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 47 45 S 8 3012 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 47 45 S 8 3012 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 47 45 S 5 3012 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 46 44 S 5 3012 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 46 44 S 5 3012 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 48 46 S 2 3012 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 48 46 S 2 3012 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 47 45 S 2 3012 5200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst