Detailed Predictions for: Crestline
Launch Altitude (f): 5200
LZ Altitude (f): 1700
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

20 JUL 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Fri 66 64 SE 3 3366 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 67 65 SE 3 3366 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 67 65 SE 3 3366 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 68 67 S 5 3366 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 68 68 S 5 3366 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 68 70 S 6 3768 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 69 72 S 8 4308 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 69 73 S 9 4470 5200 0 Blue 1
1 PM Fri 70 74 S 9 4633 5200 0 Blue 2
2 PM Fri 71 74 SW 13 4633 5200 0 Blue 2
3 PM Fri 70 72 SW 14 4308 5200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 71 72 SW 14 4308 5200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 70 70 SW 14 3768 5200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 70 68 SW 14 3366 5200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 68 66 SW 13 3366 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 67 65 S 8 3366 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 67 65 S 7 3366 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 67 65 S 7 3366 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 67 65 S 5 3366 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 67 65 S 5 3366 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 66 64 S 2 3366 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 66 64 S 3 3366 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 66 64 S 2 3366 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 66 64 S 2 3366 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 66 64 S 1 3366 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 66 64 S 1 3366 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 67 65 S 2 3366 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 68 67 S 2 3366 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 68 68 S 3 3366 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 69 71 S 3 4059 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 70 73 S 7 4470 5200 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Sat 70 74 S 8 4633 5200 0 Blue 2
1 PM Sat 71 76 S 9 5216 5200 0 Blue 4
2 PM Sat 72 76 S 12 5216 5200 0 Blue 4
3 PM Sat 71 74 S 12 4633 5200 0 Blue 2
4 PM Sat 72 74 S 12 4633 5200 0 Blue 2
5 PM Sat 71 71 SW 13 4059 5200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 70 69 S 12 3475 5200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 69 67 S 10 3366 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 68 66 S 6 3366 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 68 66 S 5 3366 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 67 65 S 5 3366 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 67 65 S 3 3366 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 67 65 S 2 3366 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 67 65 S 2 3366 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 67 65 SE 1 3366 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 67 65 SE 1 3366 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 67 65 E 2 3366 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 67 65 NE 3 3366 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 68 66 NE 3 3366 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 69 67 NE 3 3366 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 70 69 N 2 3475 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 71 71 NW 2 4059 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 72 74 SW 2 4633 5200 0 Blue 2
11 AM Sun 72 76 SW 5 5216 5200 0 Blue 4
12 Noon Sun 74 79 S 6 6068 5205 5 Blue 7
1 PM Sun 75 81 S 6 6627 5769 569 Blue 9
2 PM Sun 76 81 SW 10 6627 5769 569 Blue 9
3 PM Sun 75 79 SW 10 6068 5205 5 Blue 7
4 PM Sun 76 78 SW 10 5786 5200 0 Blue 6
5 PM Sun 76 76 S 10 5216 5200 0 Blue 4
6 PM Sun 75 74 S 8 4633 5200 0 Blue 2
7 PM Sun 74 72 S 6 4308 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 73 71 S 5 4059 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 73 71 SW 2 4059 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 73 71 W 1 4059 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 73 71 NW 1 4059 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 74 72 NW 5 4308 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 74 72 N 9 4308 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 74 72 N 13 4308 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 74 72 N 15 4308 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 74 72 N 15 4308 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 75 73 N 14 4470 5200 0 Blue 1
6 AM Mon 76 74 N 14 4633 5200 0 Blue 2
7 AM Mon 78 76 N 14 5216 5200 0 Blue 4
8 AM Mon 80 79 N 20 6068 5205 5 Blue 7
9 AM Mon 83 83 N 20 6938 6327 1127 Blue 11
10 AM Mon 86 88 N 20 9452 8193 2993 Blue 16
11 AM Mon 88 92 N 9 10844 9727 4527 Blue 20
12 Noon Mon 90 95 N 9 11963 10767 5567 White 23
1 PM Mon 90 95 N 9 11963 10767 5567 White 23
2 PM Mon 91 96 SW 12 12174 11116 5916 White 24
3 PM Mon 91 95 SW 12 11963 10767 5567 White 23
4 PM Mon 90 92 SW 12 10844 9727 4527 Blue 20
5 PM Mon 89 89 SW 12 9789 8714 3514 Blue 17
6 PM Mon 86 85 SW 12 8282 6779 1579 Blue 13
7 PM Mon 82 80 SW 12 6348 5488 288 Blue 8
8 PM Mon 80 78 S 6 5786 5200 0 Blue 6
9 PM Mon 78 76 S 6 5216 5200 0 Blue 4
10 PM Mon 78 76 S 6 5216 5200 0 Blue 4
11 PM Mon 78 76 NE 2 5216 5200 0 Blue 4
12 Midnight Tue 79 77 NE 2 5502 5200 0 Blue 5
1 AM Tue 79 77 NE 2 5502 5200 0 Blue 5
2 AM Tue 79 77 N 14 5502 5200 0 Blue 5
3 AM Tue 79 77 N 14 5502 5200 0 Blue 5
4 AM Tue 79 77 N 14 5502 5200 0 Blue 5
5 AM Tue 80 78 N 14 5786 5200 0 Blue 6
6 AM Tue 80 78 N 14 5786 5200 0 Blue 6
7 AM Tue 81 79 N 14 6068 5205 5 Blue 7
8 AM Tue 82 81 N 20 6627 5769 569 Blue 9
9 AM Tue 85 85 N 20 8282 6779 1579 Blue 13
10 AM Tue 88 90 N 20 10139 9055 3855 Blue 18
11 AM Tue 90 94 N 3 11752 10415 5215 White 22
12 Noon Tue 91 96 N 3 12174 11116 5916 White 24
1 PM Tue 92 97 N 3 12384 12138 6938 White 25
2 PM Tue 92 97 SW 13 12384 12138 6938 White 25
3 PM Tue 92 95 SW 13 11963 10767 5567 White 23
4 PM Tue 91 93 SW 13 11196 10070 4870 Blue 21
5 PM Tue 90 90 SW 13 10139 9055 3855 Blue 18
6 PM Tue 87 86 SW 13 8767 6924 1724 Blue 14
7 PM Tue 84 82 SW 13 6792 6049 849 Blue 10
8 PM Tue 81 79 S 7 6068 5205 5 Blue 7
9 PM Tue 80 78 S 7 5786 5200 0 Blue 6
10 PM Tue 80 78 S 7 5786 5200 0 Blue 6
11 PM Tue 80 78 E 1 5786 5200 0 Blue 6
12 Midnight Wed 81 79 E 1 6068 5205 5 Blue 7
1 AM Wed 81 79 E 1 6068 5205 5 Blue 7
2 AM Wed 81 79 N 10 6068 5205 5 Blue 7
3 AM Wed 81 79 N 10 6068 5205 5 Blue 7
4 AM Wed 81 79 N 10 6068 5205 5 Blue 7
5 AM Wed 82 80 N 12 6348 5488 288 Blue 8
6 AM Wed 82 80 N 12 6348 5488 288 Blue 8
7 AM Wed 83 81 N 12 6627 5769 569 Blue 9
8 AM Wed 85 84 N 15 7606 6604 1404 Blue 12
9 AM Wed 87 87 N 15 9111 7527 2327 Blue 15
10 AM Wed 89 91 N 15 10488 9393 4193 Blue 19
11 AM Wed 91 95 SW 3 11963 10767 5567 White 23
12 Noon Wed 92 97 SW 3 12384 12138 6938 White 25
1 PM Wed 92 97 SW 3 12384 12138 6938 White 25
2 PM Wed 93 98 SW 14 12594 12594 7394 White 26
3 PM Wed 93 97 SW 14 12384 12138 6938 White 25
4 PM Wed 92 94 SW 14 11752 10415 5215 White 22
5 PM Wed 90 90 SW 13 10139 9055 3855 Blue 18
6 PM Wed 87 86 SW 13 8767 6924 1724 Blue 14
7 PM Wed 83 81 SW 13 6627 5769 569 Blue 9
8 PM Wed 79 77 S 7 5502 5200 0 Blue 5
9 PM Wed 78 76 S 7 5216 5200 0 Blue 4
10 PM Wed 78 76 S 7 5216 5200 0 Blue 4
11 PM Wed 78 76 N 2 5216 5200 0 Blue 4
12 Midnight Thu 79 77 N 2 5502 5200 0 Blue 5
1 AM Thu 78 76 N 2 5216 5200 0 Blue 4
2 AM Thu 78 76 N 9 5216 5200 0 Blue 4
3 AM Thu 77 75 N 9 4846 5200 0 Blue 3
4 AM Thu 77 75 N 9 4846 5200 0 Blue 3

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst