Detailed Predictions for: Crestline
Launch Altitude (f): 5200
LZ Altitude (f): 1700
Sounding

Station:

 KNKX

Date/Time:

 11 MAR 2010

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
7 AM Thu 37 29 N 20 2621 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 44 37 N 20 2749 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 50 44 N 20 5121 5200 0 Blue 1
10 AM Thu 54 50 N 17 6915 6187 987 Blue 7
11 AM Thu 57 54 N 17 7361 7015 1815 Blue 11
12 Noon Thu 60 57 N 17 8045 7349 2149 Blue 14
1 PM Thu 61 58 N 14 8377 7460 2260 Blue 15
2 PM Thu 61 57 N 14 8045 7349 2149 Blue 14
3 PM Thu 61 55 N 14 7473 7126 1926 Blue 12
4 PM Thu 59 52 N 7 7138 6793 1593 Blue 9
5 PM Thu 56 48 N 7 6569 5471 271 Blue 5
6 PM Thu 51 43 N 7 4614 5200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 48 40 N 6 3574 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 47 39 N 6 3300 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 45 37 N 6 2749 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 44 36 NE 4 2621 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 43 35 NE 4 2621 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 43 35 NE 4 2621 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 43 35 NE 3 2621 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 42 34 NE 3 2621 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 41 33 NE 3 2621 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 40 32 E 2 2621 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 40 32 E 2 2621 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 40 32 E 2 2621 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 42 34 E 3 2621 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 49 42 E 3 4116 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 54 48 E 3 6569 5471 271 Blue 5
10 AM Fri 58 53 S 9 7250 6904 1704 Blue 10
11 AM Fri 61 57 S 9 8045 7349 2149 Blue 14
12 Noon Fri 64 60 S 9 8993 7999 2799 Blue 17
1 PM Fri 65 61 S 8 9135 8328 3128 Blue 18
2 PM Fri 65 60 S 8 8993 7999 2799 Blue 17
3 PM Fri 65 59 S 8 8706 7667 2467 Blue 16
4 PM Fri 63 55 S 8 7473 7126 1926 Blue 12
5 PM Fri 60 52 S 8 7138 6793 1593 Blue 9
6 PM Fri 55 47 S 8 6214 5200 0 Blue 4
7 PM Fri 52 44 S 6 5121 5200 0 Blue 1
8 PM Fri 51 43 S 6 4614 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 49 41 S 6 3845 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 48 40 S 4 3574 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 47 39 S 4 3300 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 47 39 S 4 3300 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 47 39 S 4 3300 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 46 38 S 4 3026 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 45 37 S 4 2749 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 44 36 S 4 2621 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 44 36 S 4 2621 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 44 36 S 4 2621 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 45 37 S 4 2749 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 49 41 S 4 3845 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 52 45 S 4 5490 5200 0 Blue 2
10 AM Sat 54 49 S 9 6803 5831 631 Blue 6
11 AM Sat 56 52 S 9 7138 6793 1593 Blue 9
12 Noon Sat 57 53 S 9 7250 6904 1704 Blue 10
1 PM Sat 58 54 S 9 7361 7015 1815 Blue 11
2 PM Sat 57 52 S 9 7138 6793 1593 Blue 9
3 PM Sat 57 51 S 9 7027 6538 1338 Blue 8
4 PM Sat 56 48 SW 8 6569 5471 271 Blue 5
5 PM Sat 53 45 SW 8 5490 5200 0 Blue 2
6 PM Sat 50 42 SW 8 4116 5200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 47 39 SW 8 3300 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 46 38 SW 8 3026 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 45 37 SW 8 2749 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 44 36 N 5 2621 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 43 35 N 5 2621 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 43 35 N 5 2621 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 43 35 N 5 2621 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 43 35 N 5 2621 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 42 34 N 5 2621 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 41 33 N 17 2621 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 41 33 N 17 2621 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 41 33 N 17 2621 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 43 35 N 17 2621 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 49 42 N 17 4116 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 55 49 N 17 6803 5831 631 Blue 6
10 AM Sun 59 55 N 15 7473 7126 1926 Blue 12
11 AM Sun 62 59 N 15 8706 7667 2467 Blue 16
12 Noon Sun 64 61 N 15 9135 8328 3128 Blue 18
1 PM Sun 65 62 N 15 9277 8654 3454 Blue 19
2 PM Sun 65 61 N 15 9135 8328 3128 Blue 18
3 PM Sun 65 59 N 15 8706 7667 2467 Blue 16
4 PM Sun 63 56 NE 12 7710 7237 2037 Blue 13
5 PM Sun 60 52 NE 12 7138 6793 1593 Blue 9
6 PM Sun 55 47 NE 12 6214 5200 0 Blue 4
7 PM Sun 52 44 NE 12 5121 5200 0 Blue 1
8 PM Sun 50 42 NE 12 4116 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 48 40 NE 12 3574 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 47 39 NE 15 3300 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 46 38 NE 15 3026 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 46 38 NE 15 3026 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 46 38 NE 15 3026 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 45 37 NE 15 2749 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 44 36 NE 15 2621 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 43 35 NE 13 2621 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 43 35 NE 13 2621 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 43 35 NE 13 2621 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 46 38 NE 13 3026 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 53 46 NE 13 5854 5200 0 Blue 3
9 AM Mon 60 54 NE 13 7361 7015 1815 Blue 11
10 AM Mon 65 61 N 9 9135 8328 3128 Blue 18
11 AM Mon 68 65 N 9 9701 9251 4051 Blue 22
12 Noon Mon 71 68 N 9 10246 9674 4474 Blue 25
1 PM Mon 73 70 N 9 11013 9955 4755 Blue 27
2 PM Mon 73 69 N 9 10533 9815 4615 Blue 26
3 PM Mon 73 67 N 9 9984 9533 4333 Blue 24
4 PM Mon 71 64 NE 5 9560 9110 3910 Blue 21
5 PM Mon 67 59 NE 5 8706 7667 2467 Blue 16
6 PM Mon 62 54 NE 5 7361 7015 1815 Blue 11
7 PM Mon 59 51 NE 5 7027 6538 1338 Blue 8
8 PM Mon 56 48 NE 5 6569 5471 271 Blue 5
9 PM Mon 55 47 NE 5 6214 5200 0 Blue 4
10 PM Mon 53 45 NE 7 5490 5200 0 Blue 2
11 PM Mon 53 45 NE 7 5490 5200 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Tue 53 45 NE 7 5490 5200 0 Blue 2
1 AM Tue 52 44 NE 7 5121 5200 0 Blue 1
2 AM Tue 51 43 NE 7 4614 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 50 42 NE 7 4116 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 49 41 NE 5 3845 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 49 41 NE 5 3845 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 49 41 NE 5 3845 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 51 43 NE 5 4614 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 58 51 NE 5 7027 6538 1338 Blue 8
9 AM Tue 63 58 NE 5 8377 7460 2260 Blue 15
10 AM Tue 67 63 SE 7 9418 8969 3769 Blue 20
11 AM Tue 70 67 SE 7 9984 9533 4333 Blue 24
12 Noon Tue 73 70 SE 7 11013 9955 4755 Blue 27
1 PM Tue 74 71 SE 7 11709 10185 4985 Blue 28
2 PM Tue 74 69 SE 7 10533 9815 4615 Blue 26
3 PM Tue 74 68 SE 7 10246 9674 4474 Blue 25
4 PM Tue 72 65 S 5 9701 9251 4051 Blue 22
5 PM Tue 68 60 S 5 8993 7999 2799 Blue 17
6 PM Tue 62 54 S 5 7361 7015 1815 Blue 11
7 PM Tue 59 51 S 5 7027 6538 1338 Blue 8
8 PM Tue 57 49 S 5 6803 5831 631 Blue 6
9 PM Tue 55 47 S 5 6214 5200 0 Blue 4
10 PM Tue 54 46 SE 2 5854 5200 0 Blue 3
11 PM Tue 53 45 SE 2 5490 5200 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Wed 53 45 SE 2 5490 5200 0 Blue 2
1 AM Wed 52 44 SE 2 5121 5200 0 Blue 1
2 AM Wed 51 43 SE 2 4614 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 50 42 SE 2 4116 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 49 41 N 2 3845 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 49 41 N 2 3845 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 49 41 N 2 3845 5200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst