Detailed Predictions for: Crestline
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.2359889702, -117.312661227, 5200
LZ Altitude (f): 1700
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

19 JAN 2022

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 44 42 S 2 6 3391 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 45 43 N 5 10 3855 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 44 42 NNE 8 14 3391 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 43 41 NNE 9 16 2917 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 43 41 NNE 9 17 2917 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 43 41 NNE 10 17 2917 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 42 40 NNE 10 18 2700 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 42 40 NNE 11 19 2700 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 44 42 NNE 12 20 3391 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 46 44 NNE 13 21 4109 5200 0 White 1
10 AM Wed 48 48 N 14 23 4878 5200 0 Blue 5
11 AM Wed 50 50 N 13 23 5155 5200 0 Blue 7
12 Noon Wed 52 53 N 13 23 5514 5200 0 Blue 10
1 PM Wed 54 54 N 13 23 5634 5269 69 Blue 11
2 PM Wed 55 55 N 13 23 5754 5389 189 Blue 12
3 PM Wed 54 53 N 13 21 5514 5200 0 Blue 10
4 PM Wed 53 51 NNE 13 23 5275 5200 0 Blue 8
5 PM Wed 50 48 NNE 16 25 4878 5200 0 Blue 5
6 PM Wed 49 47 NNE 17 26 4692 5200 0 Blue 4
7 PM Wed 48 46 NNE 18 28 4506 5200 0 Blue 3
8 PM Wed 47 45 NNE 18 28 4320 5200 0 Blue 2
9 PM Wed 47 45 N 19 29 4320 5200 0 Blue 2
10 PM Wed 47 45 N 19 31 4320 5200 0 Blue 2
11 PM Wed 46 44 N 20 32 4109 5200 0 White 1
12 Midnight Thu 47 45 N 21 34 4320 5200 0 Blue 2
1 AM Thu 46 44 N 23 35 4109 5200 0 White 1
2 AM Thu 45 43 N 24 36 3855 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 45 43 N 24 37 3855 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 44 42 N 25 39 3391 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 44 42 N 26 41 3391 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 43 41 N 28 43 2917 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 43 41 N 31 46 2917 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 44 42 N 32 47 3391 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 45 44 N 32 48 4109 5200 0 White 1
10 AM Thu 47 47 N 32 49 4692 5200 0 Blue 4
11 AM Thu 49 50 N 32 48 5155 5200 0 Blue 7
12 Noon Thu 50 51 N 31 46 5275 5200 0 Blue 8
1 PM Thu 52 52 NNE 28 43 5395 5200 0 Blue 9
2 PM Thu 52 52 N 26 41 5395 5200 0 Blue 9
3 PM Thu 52 51 N 24 37 5275 5200 0 Blue 8
4 PM Thu 52 50 N 23 34 5155 5200 0 Blue 7
5 PM Thu 50 48 N 21 33 4878 5200 0 Blue 5
6 PM Thu 48 46 NNE 21 33 4506 5200 0 Blue 3
7 PM Thu 47 45 NNE 20 33 4320 5200 0 Blue 2
8 PM Thu 46 44 NNE 20 32 4109 5200 0 White 1
9 PM Thu 46 44 NNE 20 31 4109 5200 0 White 1
10 PM Thu 46 44 NNE 19 31 4109 5200 0 White 1
11 PM Thu 46 44 NNE 19 29 4109 5200 0 White 1
12 Midnight Fri 46 44 NNE 18 29 4109 5200 0 White 1
1 AM Fri 46 44 NNE 18 28 4109 5200 0 White 1
2 AM Fri 46 44 NNE 17 27 4109 5200 0 White 1
3 AM Fri 46 44 NNE 17 26 4109 5200 0 White 1
4 AM Fri 46 44 NNE 16 26 4109 5200 0 White 1
5 AM Fri 46 44 NNE 14 24 4109 5200 0 White 1
6 AM Fri 45 43 NNE 13 23 3855 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 46 44 NNE 13 21 4109 5200 0 White 1
8 AM Fri 47 45 NNE 13 23 4320 5200 0 Blue 2
9 AM Fri 49 48 NNE 16 25 4878 5200 0 Blue 5
10 AM Fri 51 51 NNE 17 27 5275 5200 0 Blue 8
11 AM Fri 52 53 N 18 28 5514 5200 0 Blue 10
12 Noon Fri 54 55 N 19 29 5754 5389 189 Blue 12
1 PM Fri 54 54 N 20 31 5634 5269 69 Blue 11
2 PM Fri 54 54 N 21 33 5634 5269 69 Blue 11
3 PM Fri 53 52 NNE 24 36 5395 5200 0 Blue 9
4 PM Fri 52 50 NNE 26 39 5155 5200 0 Blue 7
5 PM Fri 51 49 NNE 28 42 5035 5200 0 Blue 6
6 PM Fri 49 47 NNE 31 46 4692 5200 0 Blue 4
7 PM Fri 48 46 NNE 32 48 4506 5200 0 Blue 3
8 PM Fri 46 44 NNE 33 50 4109 5200 0 White 1
9 PM Fri 46 44 NNE 34 51 4109 5200 0 White 1
10 PM Fri 45 43 NNE 35 52 3855 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 44 42 NNE 36 55 3391 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 43 41 NNE 39 57 2917 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 42 40 NNE 40 58 2700 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 42 40 NNE 39 58 2700 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 41 39 NNE 37 56 2700 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 41 39 NNE 36 55 2700 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 41 39 NNE 36 55 2700 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 41 39 NNE 36 55 2700 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 42 40 NNE 34 51 2700 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 43 41 NNE 34 51 2917 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 44 43 NNE 34 51 3855 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 46 46 NNE 34 51 4506 5200 0 Blue 3
11 AM Sat 47 47 NNE 34 51 4692 5200 0 Blue 4
12 Noon Sat 49 50 NNE 34 51 5155 5200 0 Blue 7
1 PM Sat 50 50 NNE 35 52 5155 5200 0 Blue 7
2 PM Sat 51 51 NNE 35 52 5275 5200 0 Blue 8
3 PM Sat 50 49 NNE 35 52 5035 5200 0 Blue 6
4 PM Sat 49 47 NNE 34 51 4692 5200 0 Blue 4
5 PM Sat 48 46 NNE 34 51 4506 5200 0 Blue 3
6 PM Sat 47 45 NNE 34 51 4320 5200 0 Blue 2
7 PM Sat 46 44 NNE 31 46 4109 5200 0 White 1
8 PM Sat 46 44 NNE 31 46 4109 5200 0 White 1
9 PM Sat 46 44 NNE 31 46 4109 5200 0 White 1
10 PM Sat 46 44 NNE 28 43 4109 5200 0 White 1
11 PM Sat 46 44 NNE 28 43 4109 5200 0 White 1
12 Midnight Sun 46 44 NNE 28 43 4109 5200 0 White 1
1 AM Sun 46 44 NNE 28 42 4109 5200 0 White 1
2 AM Sun 46 44 NNE 28 42 4109 5200 0 White 1
3 AM Sun 45 43 NNE 28 42 3855 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 45 43 NNE 26 39 3855 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 45 43 NNE 26 39 3855 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 44 42 NNE 26 39 3391 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 44 42 NNE 24 37 3391 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 46 44 NNE 24 37 4109 5200 0 White 1
9 AM Sun 48 47 NNE 24 37 4692 5200 0 Blue 4
10 AM Sun 50 50 NNE 23 34 5155 5200 0 Blue 7
11 AM Sun 51 52 NNE 23 34 5395 5200 0 Blue 9
12 Noon Sun 53 54 NNE 23 34 5634 5269 69 Blue 11
1 PM Sun 54 54 NNE 19 29 5634 5269 69 Blue 11
2 PM Sun 54 54 NNE 19 29 5634 5269 69 Blue 11
3 PM Sun 54 53 NNE 19 29 5514 5200 0 Blue 10
4 PM Sun 53 51 NNE 16 26 5275 5200 0 Blue 8
5 PM Sun 52 50 NNE 16 26 5155 5200 0 Blue 7
6 PM Sun 50 48 NNE 16 26 4878 5200 0 Blue 5
7 PM Sun 49 47 NNE 17 27 4692 5200 0 Blue 4
8 PM Sun 48 46 NNE 17 27 4506 5200 0 Blue 3
9 PM Sun 48 46 NNE 17 27 4506 5200 0 Blue 3
10 PM Sun 48 46 NNE 17 27 4506 5200 0 Blue 3
11 PM Sun 48 46 NNE 17 27 4506 5200 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Mon 48 46 NNE 17 27 4506 5200 0 Blue 3
1 AM Mon 48 46 NNE 18 28 4506 5200 0 Blue 3
2 AM Mon 48 46 NNE 18 28 4506 5200 0 Blue 3
3 AM Mon 47 45 NNE 18 28 4320 5200 0 Blue 2
4 AM Mon 47 45 NNE 17 27 4320 5200 0 Blue 2
5 AM Mon 46 44 NNE 17 27 4109 5200 0 White 1
6 AM Mon 46 44 NNE 17 27 4109 5200 0 White 1
7 AM Mon 46 44 NNE 16 26 4109 5200 0 White 1
8 AM Mon 48 46 NNE 16 26 4506 5200 0 Blue 3
9 AM Mon 50 49 NNE 16 26 5035 5200 0 Blue 6
10 AM Mon 53 53 NNE 12 21 5514 5200 0 Blue 10
11 AM Mon 55 56 12 21 5874 5508 308 Blue 13
12 Noon Mon 56 57 12 21 7003 5627 427 White 14
1 PM Mon 57 57 N 10 18 7003 5627 427 White 14
2 PM Mon 57 57 N 10 18 7003 5627 427 White 14
3 PM Mon 56 55 N 10 18 5754 5389 189 Blue 12
4 PM Mon 55 53 N 8 14 5514 5200 0 Blue 10
5 PM Mon 54 52 N 8 14 5395 5200 0 Blue 9
6 PM Mon 52 50 N 8 14 5155 5200 0 Blue 7
7 PM Mon 50 48 NNE 6 12 4878 5200 0 Blue 5
8 PM Mon 48 46 NNE 6 12 4506 5200 0 Blue 3
9 PM Mon 48 46 NNE 6 12 4506 5200 0 Blue 3
10 PM Mon 47 45 NNE 3 8 4320 5200 0 Blue 2

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst