Detailed Predictions for: Crestline
Launch Altitude (f): 5200
LZ Altitude (f): 1700
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

11 NOV 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Mon 56 54 N 16 3491 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 56 54 N 16 3491 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 56 54 NE 15 3491 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 56 54 NE 15 3491 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 58 56 N 16 3491 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 59 58 N 16 3491 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 62 62 N 15 3491 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 65 66 N 15 3724 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 68 69 N 15 6088 5200 0 Blue 1
1 PM Mon 70 70 N 12 6823 5200 0 Blue 2
2 PM Mon 70 70 N 10 6823 5200 0 Blue 2
3 PM Mon 70 69 N 10 6088 5200 0 Blue 1
4 PM Mon 70 68 N 8 5304 5200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 68 66 N 8 3724 5200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 65 63 NE 8 3491 5200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 62 60 NE 9 3491 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 61 59 NE 9 3491 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 60 58 NE 9 3491 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 60 58 NE 10 3491 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 59 57 NE 10 3491 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 58 56 NE 10 3491 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 58 56 NE 10 3491 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 57 55 N 10 3491 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 57 55 N 12 3491 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 56 54 N 12 3491 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 55 53 N 13 3491 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 55 53 N 12 3491 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 56 54 N 12 3491 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 58 56 N 10 3491 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 61 60 N 8 3491 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 65 65 N 7 3491 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 67 68 N 6 5304 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 69 70 N 5 6823 5200 0 Blue 2
1 PM Tue 70 70 N 3 6823 5200 0 Blue 2
2 PM Tue 70 70 N 3 6823 5200 0 Blue 2
3 PM Tue 71 70 NW 3 6823 5200 0 Blue 2
4 PM Tue 69 67 NW 3 4520 5200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 66 64 N 3 3491 5200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 63 61 E 3 3491 5200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 60 58 SE 3 3491 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 58 56 SE 3 3491 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 57 55 SE 2 3491 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 56 54 SE 1 3491 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 56 54 E 2 3491 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 56 54 N 2 3491 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 56 54 NW 2 3491 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 56 54 NW 3 3491 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 56 54 N 3 3491 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 55 53 N 5 3491 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 55 53 N 5 3491 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 55 53 N 5 3491 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 56 54 N 5 3491 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 59 57 N 5 3491 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 62 61 W 5 3491 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 65 64 SW 5 3491 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 67 66 SW 6 3724 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 68 67 SW 8 4520 5200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 67 66 S 9 3724 5200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 68 67 SW 9 4520 5200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 66 64 SW 9 3491 5200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 64 62 SW 8 3491 5200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 61 59 SW 8 3491 5200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 58 56 S 7 3491 5200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 55 53 S 6 3491 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 54 52 S 6 3491 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 54 52 S 6 3491 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 54 52 S 6 3491 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 54 52 S 6 3491 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 53 51 S 6 3491 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 53 51 S 6 3491 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 52 50 S 6 3491 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 51 49 S 6 3491 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 51 49 S 5 3491 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 52 50 S 5 3491 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 53 51 S 5 3491 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 54 52 S 6 3491 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 56 54 S 6 3491 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 58 56 S 6 3491 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 60 59 S 8 3491 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 62 61 S 8 3491 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 63 63 S 8 3491 5200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 62 61 S 10 3491 5200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 63 62 S 10 3491 5200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 62 60 S 10 3491 5200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 60 58 SW 9 3491 5200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 57 55 SW 9 3491 5200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 54 52 SW 9 3491 5200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 52 50 S 6 3491 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 52 50 S 6 3491 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 52 50 S 6 3491 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 53 51 S 5 3491 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 53 51 S 5 3491 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 52 50 S 5 3491 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 52 50 S 6 3491 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 51 49 S 6 3491 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 50 48 S 6 3491 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 50 48 W 5 3491 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 49 47 W 5 3491 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 48 46 W 5 3491 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 49 47 N 6 3491 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 52 50 N 6 3491 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 55 53 N 6 3491 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 59 58 N 5 3491 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 62 62 N 5 3491 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 63 63 N 5 3491 5200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 64 64 SW 5 3491 5200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 63 62 SW 5 3491 5200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 63 61 SW 5 3491 5200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 62 60 SW 6 3491 5200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 59 57 SW 6 3491 5200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 56 54 SW 6 3491 5200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 54 52 N 5 3491 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 53 51 N 5 3491 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 54 52 N 5 3491 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 55 53 N 14 3491 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 55 53 N 14 3491 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 54 52 N 14 3491 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 54 52 N 16 3491 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 53 51 N 16 3491 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 52 50 N 16 3491 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 51 49 N 18 3491 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 50 48 N 18 3491 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 50 48 N 18 3491 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 50 48 N 20 3491 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 52 50 N 20 3491 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 54 53 N 20 3491 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 57 57 N 18 3491 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 60 61 N 18 3491 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 62 63 N 18 3491 5200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 64 64 N 16 3491 5200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 66 66 N 16 3724 5200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 65 64 N 16 3491 5200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 65 63 N 15 3491 5200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 63 61 N 15 3491 5200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 61 59 N 15 3491 5200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 59 57 NE 15 3491 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 57 55 NE 15 3491 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 56 54 NE 15 3491 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 56 54 NE 16 3491 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 56 54 NE 16 3491 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 56 54 NE 16 3491 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 56 54 N 23 3491 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 55 53 N 23 3491 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 54 52 N 23 3491 5200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst