Detailed Predictions for: Crestline
Launch Altitude (f): 5200
LZ Altitude (f): 1700
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

18 SEP 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Wed 54 52 SE 5 3589 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 55 53 SE 5 3589 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 56 54 SE 5 3589 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 57 55 SE 6 3589 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 59 58 S 7 3589 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 60 61 S 8 3589 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 62 65 S 10 3829 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 64 68 S 12 4626 5200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 66 70 S 13 5052 5200 0 Blue 1
2 PM Wed 68 72 S 14 5264 5200 0 Blue 3
3 PM Wed 68 70 S 14 5052 5200 0 Blue 1
4 PM Wed 69 70 SW 14 5052 5200 0 Blue 1
5 PM Wed 68 67 SW 14 4361 5200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 65 63 SW 13 3589 5200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 62 60 S 9 3589 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 59 57 S 7 3589 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 57 55 S 7 3589 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 56 54 S 8 3589 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 56 54 SE 7 3589 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 55 53 SE 7 3589 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 54 52 SE 8 3589 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 53 51 SE 8 3589 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 52 50 SE 8 3589 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 51 49 SE 8 3589 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 51 49 SE 9 3589 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 51 49 SE 9 3589 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 52 50 SE 9 3589 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 53 51 SE 10 3589 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 55 54 S 12 3589 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 56 57 S 13 3589 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 58 61 S 13 3589 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 60 64 S 14 3589 5200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 62 66 S 14 4096 5200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 63 67 S 14 4361 5200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 63 65 S 14 3829 5200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 64 65 SW 14 3829 5200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 62 61 SW 13 3589 5200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 60 58 SW 10 3589 5200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 56 54 S 8 3589 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 53 51 S 7 3589 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 52 50 S 6 3589 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 52 50 SE 5 3589 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 52 50 SE 5 3589 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 52 50 E 5 3589 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 52 50 NE 6 3589 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 52 50 N 7 3589 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 53 51 N 10 3589 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 53 51 N 14 3589 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 53 51 N 17 3589 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 53 51 N 18 3589 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 54 52 N 18 3589 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 55 53 N 18 3589 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 57 57 N 18 3589 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 60 61 N 18 3589 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 64 67 N 18 4361 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 67 71 N 16 5158 5200 0 Blue 2
1 PM Fri 70 74 N 15 5477 5200 0 Blue 5
2 PM Fri 73 77 N 13 6761 5472 272 Blue 8
3 PM Fri 73 75 N 12 5811 5260 60 Blue 6
4 PM Fri 73 74 N 9 5477 5200 0 Blue 5
5 PM Fri 72 71 N 8 5158 5200 0 Blue 2
6 PM Fri 68 66 NE 6 4096 5200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 64 62 E 5 3589 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 60 58 SE 3 3589 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 58 56 E 3 3589 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 58 56 E 3 3589 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 58 56 NE 5 3589 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 58 56 NE 6 3589 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 58 56 NE 8 3589 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 58 56 N 9 3589 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 57 55 N 12 3589 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 57 55 NE 12 3589 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 57 55 NE 13 3589 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 59 57 NE 13 3589 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 61 59 NE 13 3589 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 63 61 NE 12 3589 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 66 65 NE 12 3829 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 68 69 NE 12 4889 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 71 74 N 8 5477 5200 0 Blue 5
12 Noon Sat 73 77 N 8 6761 5472 272 Blue 8
1 PM Sat 75 79 N 8 7816 6169 969 Blue 10
2 PM Sat 76 80 S 7 8322 6713 1513 Blue 11
3 PM Sat 76 78 S 7 7296 5791 591 Blue 9
4 PM Sat 77 78 S 7 7296 5791 591 Blue 9
5 PM Sat 75 74 SW 8 5477 5200 0 Blue 5
6 PM Sat 73 71 SW 8 5158 5200 0 Blue 2
7 PM Sat 70 68 SW 8 4626 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 67 65 SE 5 3829 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 64 62 SE 5 3589 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 63 61 SE 5 3589 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 62 60 SE 3 3589 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 62 60 SE 3 3589 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 62 60 SE 3 3589 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 62 60 SE 5 3589 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 61 59 SE 5 3589 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 60 58 SE 5 3589 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 60 58 E 6 3589 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 62 60 E 6 3589 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 65 63 E 6 3589 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 68 66 SE 6 4096 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 71 70 SE 6 5052 5200 0 Blue 1
10 AM Sun 73 74 SE 6 5477 5200 0 Blue 5
11 AM Sun 74 77 S 10 6761 5472 272 Blue 8
12 Noon Sun 76 80 S 10 8322 6713 1513 Blue 11
1 PM Sun 77 81 S 10 8801 7240 2040 Blue 12
2 PM Sun 77 80 SW 15 8322 6713 1513 Blue 11
3 PM Sun 78 80 SW 15 8322 6713 1513 Blue 11
4 PM Sun 77 77 SW 15 6761 5472 272 Blue 8
5 PM Sun 75 74 SW 16 5477 5200 0 Blue 5
6 PM Sun 72 70 SW 16 5052 5200 0 Blue 1
7 PM Sun 69 67 SW 16 4361 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 67 65 S 8 3829 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 65 63 S 8 3589 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 65 63 S 8 3589 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 64 62 SE 8 3589 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 63 61 SE 8 3589 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 62 60 SE 8 3589 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 61 59 SE 9 3589 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 60 58 SE 9 3589 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 59 57 SE 9 3589 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 58 56 SE 9 3589 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 57 55 SE 9 3589 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 56 54 SE 9 3589 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 56 54 SE 12 3589 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 57 56 SE 12 3589 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 59 60 SE 12 3589 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 62 64 S 15 3589 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 64 67 S 15 4361 5200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 67 70 S 15 5052 5200 0 Blue 1
2 PM Mon 68 70 S 15 5052 5200 0 Blue 1
3 PM Mon 70 71 S 15 5158 5200 0 Blue 2
4 PM Mon 69 69 S 15 4889 5200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 69 68 SW 14 4626 5200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 66 64 SW 14 3589 5200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 62 60 SW 14 3589 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 59 57 S 7 3589 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 57 55 S 7 3589 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 57 55 S 7 3589 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 57 55 S 6 3589 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 56 54 S 6 3589 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 56 54 S 6 3589 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 56 54 E 6 3589 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 56 54 E 6 3589 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 56 54 E 6 3589 5200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst