Detailed Predictions for: Crestline
Launch Altitude (f): 5200
LZ Altitude (f): 1700
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

21 JAN 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Sun 30 28 N 20 3533 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 29 27 N 18 3533 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 29 27 N 18 3533 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 30 28 N 18 3533 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 31 29 N 18 3533 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 34 33 N 18 3533 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 37 36 N 18 3533 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 40 40 N 17 3872 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 43 43 N 15 5473 5200 0 Blue 2
1 PM Sun 45 45 N 13 5733 5200 0 Blue 4
2 PM Sun 47 46 N 12 5863 5466 266 Blue 5
3 PM Sun 47 45 N 10 5733 5200 0 Blue 4
4 PM Sun 48 46 N 9 5863 5466 266 Blue 5
5 PM Sun 46 44 N 8 5603 5200 0 Blue 3
6 PM Sun 43 41 N 8 4190 5200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 40 38 N 8 3533 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 39 37 NE 8 3533 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 38 36 N 8 3533 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 38 36 N 9 3533 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 37 35 N 10 3533 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 38 36 N 10 3533 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 38 36 N 12 3533 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 39 37 N 12 3533 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 39 37 N 13 3533 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 39 37 N 13 3533 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 38 36 N 13 3533 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 37 35 N 13 3533 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 37 35 N 14 3533 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 38 36 N 14 3533 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 40 38 N 15 3533 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 42 41 N 14 4190 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 44 44 N 14 5603 5200 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Mon 47 47 N 15 6174 5596 396 Blue 6
1 PM Mon 49 49 N 16 7497 5854 654 Blue 8
2 PM Mon 51 50 N 16 7708 6073 873 Blue 9
3 PM Mon 51 49 N 16 7497 5854 654 Blue 8
4 PM Mon 52 50 N 16 7708 6073 873 Blue 9
5 PM Mon 51 49 N 16 7497 5854 654 Blue 8
6 PM Mon 50 48 N 16 7285 5725 525 Blue 7
7 PM Mon 49 47 N 17 6174 5596 396 Blue 6
8 PM Mon 48 46 N 18 5863 5466 266 Blue 5
9 PM Mon 48 46 N 18 5863 5466 266 Blue 5
10 PM Mon 48 46 N 18 5863 5466 266 Blue 5
11 PM Mon 47 45 N 18 5733 5200 0 Blue 4
12 Midnight Tue 46 44 N 20 5603 5200 0 Blue 3
1 AM Tue 46 44 N 21 5603 5200 0 Blue 3
2 AM Tue 45 43 N 20 5473 5200 0 Blue 2
3 AM Tue 45 43 N 21 5473 5200 0 Blue 2
4 AM Tue 45 43 N 21 5473 5200 0 Blue 2
5 AM Tue 43 41 N 22 4190 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 42 40 N 22 3872 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 42 40 N 23 3872 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 43 41 N 23 4190 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 45 44 N 23 5603 5200 0 Blue 3
10 AM Tue 48 48 N 24 7285 5725 525 Blue 7
11 AM Tue 51 51 N 24 7919 7261 2061 Blue 10
12 Noon Tue 54 54 N 23 8357 7890 2690 Blue 13
1 PM Tue 56 56 N 22 9286 8219 3019 Blue 15
2 PM Tue 57 56 N 21 9286 8219 3019 Blue 15
3 PM Tue 57 56 N 20 9286 8219 3019 Blue 15
4 PM Tue 57 55 N 18 8792 8099 2899 Blue 14
5 PM Tue 57 55 N 17 8792 8099 2899 Blue 14
6 PM Tue 56 54 N 18 8357 7890 2690 Blue 13
7 PM Tue 54 52 NE 17 8117 7471 2271 Blue 11
8 PM Tue 52 50 NE 17 7708 6073 873 Blue 9
9 PM Tue 51 49 N 17 7497 5854 654 Blue 8
10 PM Tue 49 47 N 16 6174 5596 396 Blue 6
11 PM Tue 48 46 N 16 5863 5466 266 Blue 5
12 Midnight Wed 48 46 N 16 5863 5466 266 Blue 5
1 AM Wed 47 45 N 16 5733 5200 0 Blue 4
2 AM Wed 46 44 N 15 5603 5200 0 Blue 3
3 AM Wed 46 44 N 15 5603 5200 0 Blue 3
4 AM Wed 45 43 N 10 5473 5200 0 Blue 2
5 AM Wed 44 42 N 10 5046 5200 0 Blue 1
6 AM Wed 44 42 N 10 5046 5200 0 Blue 1
7 AM Wed 45 43 E 5 5473 5200 0 Blue 2
8 AM Wed 48 46 E 5 5863 5466 266 Blue 5
9 AM Wed 51 50 E 5 7708 6073 873 Blue 9
10 AM Wed 54 53 E 2 8237 7681 2481 Blue 12
11 AM Wed 56 56 E 2 9286 8219 3019 Blue 15
12 Noon Wed 57 57 E 2 9767 8339 3139 Blue 16
1 PM Wed 58 58 S 6 10203 8710 3510 Blue 17
2 PM Wed 59 58 S 6 10203 8710 3510 Blue 17
3 PM Wed 59 58 S 6 10203 8710 3510 Blue 17
4 PM Wed 58 56 SW 9 9286 8219 3019 Blue 15
5 PM Wed 57 55 SW 9 8792 8099 2899 Blue 14
6 PM Wed 55 53 SW 9 8237 7681 2481 Blue 12
7 PM Wed 53 51 S 8 7919 7261 2061 Blue 10
8 PM Wed 52 50 S 8 7708 6073 873 Blue 9
9 PM Wed 50 48 S 8 7285 5725 525 Blue 7
10 PM Wed 49 47 S 7 6174 5596 396 Blue 6
11 PM Wed 48 46 S 7 5863 5466 266 Blue 5
12 Midnight Thu 48 46 S 7 5863 5466 266 Blue 5
1 AM Thu 47 45 S 6 5733 5200 0 Blue 4
2 AM Thu 46 44 S 6 5603 5200 0 Blue 3
3 AM Thu 44 42 S 6 5046 5200 0 Blue 1
4 AM Thu 43 41 S 7 4190 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 42 40 S 7 3872 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 42 40 S 7 3872 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 42 40 S 8 3872 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 41 39 S 8 3551 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 41 39 S 8 3551 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 42 41 S 12 4190 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 44 43 S 12 5473 5200 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Thu 46 45 S 12 5733 5200 0 Blue 4
1 PM Thu 47 46 SW 16 5863 5466 266 Blue 5
2 PM Thu 47 45 SW 16 5733 5200 0 Blue 4
3 PM Thu 46 44 SW 16 5603 5200 0 Blue 3
4 PM Thu 44 42 NW 21 5046 5200 0 Blue 1
5 PM Thu 42 40 NW 21 3872 5200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 40 38 NW 21 3533 5200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 38 36 NW 23 3533 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 37 35 NW 23 3533 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 37 35 NW 23 3533 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 37 35 N 23 3533 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 38 36 N 23 3533 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 38 36 N 23 3533 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 38 36 N 21 3533 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 38 36 N 21 3533 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 38 36 N 21 3533 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 38 36 N 18 3533 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 39 37 N 18 3533 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 39 37 N 18 3533 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 40 38 N 18 3533 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 40 38 N 18 3533 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 40 39 N 18 3551 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 41 40 N 18 3872 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 44 44 N 18 5603 5200 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Fri 47 47 N 18 6174 5596 396 Blue 6
1 PM Fri 50 50 N 16 7708 6073 873 Blue 9
2 PM Fri 52 51 N 16 7919 7261 2061 Blue 10
3 PM Fri 52 50 N 16 7708 6073 873 Blue 9
4 PM Fri 52 50 NE 15 7708 6073 873 Blue 9
5 PM Fri 50 48 NE 15 7285 5725 525 Blue 7
6 PM Fri 49 47 NE 15 6174 5596 396 Blue 6
7 PM Fri 48 46 NE 17 5863 5466 266 Blue 5
8 PM Fri 48 46 NE 17 5863 5466 266 Blue 5
9 PM Fri 47 45 NE 17 5733 5200 0 Blue 4
10 PM Fri 46 44 NE 20 5603 5200 0 Blue 3
11 PM Fri 46 44 NE 20 5603 5200 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Sat 45 43 NE 20 5473 5200 0 Blue 2
1 AM Sat 44 42 N 21 5046 5200 0 Blue 1
2 AM Sat 44 42 N 21 5046 5200 0 Blue 1
3 AM Sat 44 42 N 21 5046 5200 0 Blue 1

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst