Detailed Predictions for: Crestline
Launch Altitude (f): 5200
LZ Altitude (f): 1700
Sounding

Station:

 KNKX

Date/Time:

 20 MAR 2010

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
5 AM Sat 46 38 N 5 3898 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 46 38 N 5 3898 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 46 38 N 5 3898 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 51 43 N 4 3898 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 59 52 N 4 3898 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 65 60 N 4 3898 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 68 64 N 4 6447 5200 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Sat 71 68 N 4 7575 6706 1506 Blue 5
1 PM Sat 73 71 N 4 9036 7542 2342 Blue 8
2 PM Sat 75 72 N 5 9768 7817 2617 Blue 9
3 PM Sat 75 71 N 5 9036 7542 2342 Blue 8
4 PM Sat 76 70 N 5 8254 7265 2065 Blue 7
5 PM Sat 74 67 SW 5 7295 6424 1224 Blue 4
6 PM Sat 69 61 SW 5 3898 5200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 62 54 SW 5 3898 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 57 49 SE 2 3898 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 54 46 SE 2 3898 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 53 45 SE 2 3898 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 52 44 E 2 3898 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 51 43 E 2 3898 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 50 42 E 2 3898 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 49 41 E 2 3898 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 47 39 E 2 3898 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 47 39 E 2 3898 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 45 37 NE 3 3898 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 45 37 NE 3 3898 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 45 37 NE 3 3898 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 51 43 NE 2 3898 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 60 53 NE 2 3898 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 65 60 NE 2 3898 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 69 65 S 2 6731 5200 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Sun 73 70 S 2 8254 7265 2065 Blue 7
1 PM Sun 75 72 S 2 9768 7817 2617 Blue 9
2 PM Sun 77 74 S 6 11486 8912 3712 Blue 11
3 PM Sun 77 73 S 6 10832 8142 2942 Blue 10
4 PM Sun 78 72 S 6 9768 7817 2617 Blue 9
5 PM Sun 76 69 S 8 7852 6986 1786 Blue 6
6 PM Sun 71 63 S 8 5274 5200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 63 55 S 8 3898 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 58 50 S 5 3898 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 56 48 S 5 3898 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 54 46 S 5 3898 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 53 45 E 2 3898 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 52 44 E 2 3898 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 51 43 E 2 3898 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 50 42 E 2 3898 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 49 41 E 2 3898 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 48 40 E 2 3898 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 46 38 SW 3 3898 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 46 38 SW 3 3898 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 46 38 SW 3 3898 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 51 43 SW 3 3898 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 59 52 SW 3 3898 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 63 57 SW 3 3898 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 67 62 S 6 4117 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 69 65 S 6 6731 5200 0 Blue 2
1 PM Mon 71 67 S 6 7295 6424 1224 Blue 4
2 PM Mon 73 68 S 6 7575 6706 1506 Blue 5
3 PM Mon 73 67 S 6 7295 6424 1224 Blue 4
4 PM Mon 74 67 S 6 7295 6424 1224 Blue 4
5 PM Mon 72 64 SW 9 6447 5200 0 Blue 1
6 PM Mon 66 58 SW 9 3898 5200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 59 51 SW 9 3898 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 54 46 SW 9 3898 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 51 43 SW 9 3898 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 50 42 SW 9 3898 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 48 40 E 2 3898 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 47 39 E 2 3898 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 46 38 E 2 3898 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 45 37 E 2 3898 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 44 36 E 2 3898 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 43 35 E 2 3898 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 41 33 S 3 3898 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 41 33 S 3 3898 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 41 33 S 3 3898 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 46 38 S 3 3898 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 54 47 S 3 3898 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 59 53 S 3 3898 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 62 57 N 13 3898 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 65 61 N 13 3898 5200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 67 63 N 13 5274 5200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 69 65 N 13 6731 5200 0 Blue 2
3 PM Tue 69 64 N 13 6447 5200 0 Blue 1
4 PM Tue 70 63 N 13 5274 5200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 68 60 NW 9 3898 5200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 63 55 NW 9 3898 5200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 57 49 NW 9 3898 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 52 44 NW 9 3898 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 50 42 NW 9 3898 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 49 41 NW 9 3898 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 47 39 N 8 3898 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 46 38 N 8 3898 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 46 38 N 8 3898 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 44 36 N 8 3898 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 43 35 N 8 3898 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 42 34 N 8 3898 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 41 33 NE 12 3898 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 41 33 NE 12 3898 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 41 33 NE 12 3898 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 46 38 NE 12 3898 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 55 48 NE 12 3898 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 61 55 NE 12 3898 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 65 61 N 7 3898 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 68 65 N 7 6731 5200 0 Blue 2
1 PM Wed 70 67 N 7 7295 6424 1224 Blue 4
2 PM Wed 72 68 N 7 7575 6706 1506 Blue 5
3 PM Wed 72 67 N 7 7295 6424 1224 Blue 4
4 PM Wed 73 67 N 7 7295 6424 1224 Blue 4
5 PM Wed 71 64 N 8 6447 5200 0 Blue 1
6 PM Wed 66 58 N 8 3898 5200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 60 52 N 8 3898 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 55 47 N 8 3898 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 53 45 N 8 3898 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 52 44 N 8 3898 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 50 42 N 6 3898 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 49 41 N 6 3898 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 49 41 N 6 3898 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 47 39 N 6 3898 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 46 38 N 6 3898 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 45 37 N 6 3898 5200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 44 36 NE 3 3898 5200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 44 36 NE 3 3898 5200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 44 36 NE 3 3898 5200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 49 41 NE 3 3898 5200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 57 50 NE 3 3898 5200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 63 58 NE 3 3898 5200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 66 62 SW 5 4117 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 69 66 SW 5 7014 5214 14 Blue 3
1 PM Thu 71 68 SW 5 7575 6706 1506 Blue 5
2 PM Thu 73 70 SW 5 8254 7265 2065 Blue 7
3 PM Thu 73 69 SW 5 7852 6986 1786 Blue 6
4 PM Thu 74 68 SW 5 7575 6706 1506 Blue 5
5 PM Thu 72 65 SW 9 6731 5200 0 Blue 2
6 PM Thu 67 59 SW 9 3898 5200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 60 52 SW 9 3898 5200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 56 48 SW 9 3898 5200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 53 45 SW 9 3898 5200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 52 44 SW 9 3898 5200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 50 42 S 3 3898 5200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 49 41 S 3 3898 5200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 49 41 S 3 3898 5200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 48 40 S 3 3898 5200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 46 38 S 3 3898 5200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 46 38 S 3 3898 5200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst