Detailed Predictions for: Thomas Mt
Launch Altitude (f): 5900
LZ Altitude (f): 4550
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

21 JAN 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Sun 24 24 E 1 5184 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 23 23 E 1 5184 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 23 23 E 2 5184 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 25 25 E 3 5184 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 28 28 E 3 5184 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 33 34 SE 3 5184 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 37 38 SE 2 5821 5900 0 Blue 3
11 AM Sun 40 42 SE 5 7661 5950 50 Blue 7
12 Noon Sun 42 44 SE 5 8090 7430 1530 Blue 9
1 PM Sun 44 46 SE 3 8339 7857 1957 Blue 11
2 PM Sun 45 46 SE 2 8339 7857 1957 Blue 11
3 PM Sun 45 45 SE 2 8217 7644 1744 Blue 10
4 PM Sun 45 45 W 2 8217 7644 1744 Blue 10
5 PM Sun 40 40 W 3 7112 5900 0 Blue 5
6 PM Sun 34 34 W 3 5184 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 30 30 NW 3 5184 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 29 29 N 5 5184 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 31 31 NE 5 5184 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 34 34 NE 5 5184 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 31 31 NE 5 5184 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 31 31 NE 3 5184 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 31 31 NE 5 5184 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 32 32 NE 5 5184 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 33 33 NE 5 5184 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 33 33 NE 6 5184 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 32 32 NE 6 5184 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 31 31 NE 6 5184 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 32 32 NE 7 5184 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 34 34 NE 7 5184 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 38 38 E 7 5821 5900 0 Blue 3
10 AM Mon 42 43 E 8 7876 7040 1140 Blue 8
11 AM Mon 45 47 E 8 8730 8070 2170 Blue 12
12 Noon Mon 47 49 NE 9 9733 8327 2427 Blue 14
1 PM Mon 48 50 NE 9 10197 8672 2772 Blue 15
2 PM Mon 48 49 NE 9 9733 8327 2427 Blue 14
3 PM Mon 48 48 NE 9 9238 8205 2305 Blue 13
4 PM Mon 48 48 NE 10 9238 8205 2305 Blue 13
5 PM Mon 45 45 NE 10 8217 7644 1744 Blue 10
6 PM Mon 42 42 NE 12 7661 5950 50 Blue 7
7 PM Mon 40 40 NE 15 7112 5900 0 Blue 5
8 PM Mon 39 39 NE 15 5953 5900 0 Blue 4
9 PM Mon 39 39 NE 15 5953 5900 0 Blue 4
10 PM Mon 39 39 NE 15 5953 5900 0 Blue 4
11 PM Mon 40 40 NE 15 7112 5900 0 Blue 5
12 Midnight Tue 40 40 NE 15 7112 5900 0 Blue 5
1 AM Tue 40 40 NE 14 7112 5900 0 Blue 5
2 AM Tue 39 39 NE 14 5953 5900 0 Blue 4
3 AM Tue 38 38 NE 14 5821 5900 0 Blue 3
4 AM Tue 36 36 NE 15 5556 5900 0 Blue 1
5 AM Tue 34 34 NE 16 5184 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 33 33 NE 16 5184 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 34 34 NE 18 5184 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 38 38 NE 20 5821 5900 0 Blue 3
9 AM Tue 43 44 NE 18 8090 7430 1530 Blue 9
10 AM Tue 48 50 NE 18 10197 8672 2772 Blue 15
11 AM Tue 51 53 NE 17 10639 10136 4236 Blue 18
12 Noon Tue 53 56 NE 16 11259 10612 4712 Blue 21
1 PM Tue 54 56 NE 15 11259 10612 4712 Blue 21
2 PM Tue 53 55 NE 15 10991 10466 4566 Blue 20
3 PM Tue 54 55 NE 14 10991 10466 4566 Blue 20
4 PM Tue 53 53 NE 14 10639 10136 4236 Blue 18
5 PM Tue 51 51 NE 14 10344 9173 3273 Blue 16
6 PM Tue 50 50 NE 14 10197 8672 2772 Blue 15
7 PM Tue 48 48 NE 13 9238 8205 2305 Blue 13
8 PM Tue 47 47 NE 13 8730 8070 2170 Blue 12
9 PM Tue 47 47 NE 13 8730 8070 2170 Blue 12
10 PM Tue 46 46 NE 13 8339 7857 1957 Blue 11
11 PM Tue 46 46 E 13 8339 7857 1957 Blue 11
12 Midnight Wed 45 45 E 12 8217 7644 1744 Blue 10
1 AM Wed 44 44 E 12 8090 7430 1530 Blue 9
2 AM Wed 43 43 E 12 7876 7040 1140 Blue 8
3 AM Wed 41 41 E 13 7445 5900 0 Blue 6
4 AM Wed 39 39 E 7 5953 5900 0 Blue 4
5 AM Wed 37 37 E 7 5688 5900 0 Blue 2
6 AM Wed 35 35 E 7 5264 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 36 36 E 7 5556 5900 0 Blue 1
8 AM Wed 39 39 E 7 5953 5900 0 Blue 4
9 AM Wed 44 45 E 7 8217 7644 1744 Blue 10
10 AM Wed 50 52 E 7 10491 9662 3762 Blue 17
11 AM Wed 53 55 E 7 10991 10466 4566 Blue 20
12 Noon Wed 56 58 E 7 11791 10940 5040 Blue 23
1 PM Wed 57 59 SE 7 12054 11206 5306 Blue 24
2 PM Wed 58 59 SE 7 12054 11206 5306 Blue 24
3 PM Wed 58 59 SE 7 12054 11206 5306 Blue 24
4 PM Wed 57 57 S 7 11526 10759 4859 Blue 22
5 PM Wed 54 54 S 7 10786 10319 4419 Blue 19
6 PM Wed 51 51 S 7 10344 9173 3273 Blue 16
7 PM Wed 49 49 S 6 9733 8327 2427 Blue 14
8 PM Wed 47 47 S 6 8730 8070 2170 Blue 12
9 PM Wed 47 47 S 6 8730 8070 2170 Blue 12
10 PM Wed 46 46 SW 6 8339 7857 1957 Blue 11
11 PM Wed 46 46 SW 6 8339 7857 1957 Blue 11
12 Midnight Thu 44 44 SW 6 8090 7430 1530 Blue 9
1 AM Thu 43 43 SW 7 7876 7040 1140 Blue 8
2 AM Thu 42 42 SW 7 7661 5950 50 Blue 7
3 AM Thu 40 40 SW 7 7112 5900 0 Blue 5
4 AM Thu 38 38 W 9 5821 5900 0 Blue 3
5 AM Thu 36 36 W 9 5556 5900 0 Blue 1
6 AM Thu 34 34 W 9 5184 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 33 33 W 13 5184 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 37 37 W 13 5688 5900 0 Blue 2
9 AM Thu 44 44 W 13 8090 7430 1530 Blue 9
10 AM Thu 47 48 W 17 9238 8205 2305 Blue 13
11 AM Thu 45 46 W 17 8339 7857 1957 Blue 11
12 Noon Thu 42 43 W 17 7876 7040 1140 Blue 8
1 PM Thu 40 41 W 24 7445 5900 0 Blue 6
2 PM Thu 40 41 W 24 7445 5900 0 Blue 6
3 PM Thu 42 42 W 24 7661 5950 50 Blue 7
4 PM Thu 42 42 W 29 7661 5950 50 Blue 7
5 PM Thu 40 40 W 29 7112 5900 0 Blue 5
6 PM Thu 36 36 W 29 5556 5900 0 Blue 1
7 PM Thu 32 32 W 25 5184 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 30 30 W 25 5184 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 30 30 W 25 5184 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 30 30 NW 20 5184 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 30 30 NW 20 5184 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 30 30 NW 20 5184 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 31 31 NW 15 5184 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 31 31 NW 15 5184 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 31 31 NW 15 5184 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 32 32 NW 12 5184 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 34 34 NW 12 5184 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 36 36 NW 12 5556 5900 0 Blue 1
7 AM Fri 38 38 NW 9 5821 5900 0 Blue 3
8 AM Fri 41 41 NW 9 7445 5900 0 Blue 6
9 AM Fri 43 44 NW 9 8090 7430 1530 Blue 9
10 AM Fri 45 46 N 9 8339 7857 1957 Blue 11
11 AM Fri 48 50 N 9 10197 8672 2772 Blue 15
12 Noon Fri 50 52 N 9 10491 9662 3762 Blue 17
1 PM Fri 51 53 N 9 10639 10136 4236 Blue 18
2 PM Fri 51 52 N 9 10491 9662 3762 Blue 17
3 PM Fri 49 49 N 9 9733 8327 2427 Blue 14
4 PM Fri 45 45 NE 12 8217 7644 1744 Blue 10
5 PM Fri 42 42 NE 12 7661 5950 50 Blue 7
6 PM Fri 38 38 NE 12 5821 5900 0 Blue 3
7 PM Fri 36 36 NE 16 5556 5900 0 Blue 1
8 PM Fri 35 35 NE 16 5264 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 35 35 NE 16 5264 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 36 36 NE 20 5556 5900 0 Blue 1
11 PM Fri 35 35 NE 20 5264 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 35 35 NE 20 5264 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 35 35 NE 20 5264 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 35 35 NE 20 5264 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 36 36 NE 20 5556 5900 0 Blue 1

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst