Detailed Predictions for: Thomas Mt
Launch Altitude (f): 5900
LZ Altitude (f): 4550
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

11 NOV 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Mon 43 43 NE 10 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 44 44 NE 10 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 44 44 NE 9 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 47 47 NE 9 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 52 52 NE 9 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 59 60 NE 9 4986 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 64 66 NE 9 8973 7273 1373 Blue 1
11 AM Mon 68 71 NE 9 11409 9695 3795 Blue 6
12 Noon Mon 70 73 NE 9 12175 10690 4790 Blue 8
1 PM Mon 69 72 NE 9 11832 10124 4224 Blue 7
2 PM Mon 70 72 NE 9 11832 10124 4224 Blue 7
3 PM Mon 68 69 NE 9 10194 8927 3027 Blue 4
4 PM Mon 64 64 NE 7 8006 5900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 58 58 NE 7 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 52 52 NE 8 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 48 48 NE 10 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 47 47 NE 12 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 48 48 NE 12 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 49 49 NE 12 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 48 48 NE 10 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 45 45 NE 10 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 42 42 NE 9 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 40 40 NE 9 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 39 39 NE 9 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 38 38 NE 9 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 38 38 NE 9 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 39 39 E 9 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 43 43 E 9 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 49 49 E 9 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 57 58 E 8 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 64 66 E 8 8973 7273 1373 Blue 1
11 AM Tue 68 71 E 7 11409 9695 3795 Blue 6
12 Noon Tue 71 74 E 6 12514 11292 5392 Blue 9
1 PM Tue 70 73 E 6 12175 10690 4790 Blue 8
2 PM Tue 70 72 E 5 11832 10124 4224 Blue 7
3 PM Tue 68 69 E 5 10194 8927 3027 Blue 4
4 PM Tue 64 64 E 5 8006 5900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 59 59 E 3 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 54 54 NE 3 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 49 49 NE 3 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 46 46 NE 3 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 44 44 N 3 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 42 42 N 3 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 41 41 N 3 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 40 40 N 3 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 39 39 N 3 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 38 38 N 3 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 38 38 N 3 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 39 39 NW 3 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 40 40 NW 3 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 43 43 NW 3 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 48 48 NW 5 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 54 54 NW 5 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 60 61 W 6 5817 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 66 67 W 6 9364 7949 2049 Blue 2
11 AM Wed 70 72 W 7 11832 10124 4224 Blue 7
12 Noon Wed 71 73 W 8 12175 10690 4790 Blue 8
1 PM Wed 71 72 W 9 11832 10124 4224 Blue 7
2 PM Wed 70 71 W 9 11409 9695 3795 Blue 6
3 PM Wed 66 66 W 9 8973 7273 1373 Blue 1
4 PM Wed 61 61 W 9 5817 5900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 54 54 W 9 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 48 48 W 9 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 43 43 W 8 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 40 40 W 8 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 40 40 W 9 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 40 40 W 9 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 41 41 W 9 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 42 42 W 8 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 43 43 W 8 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 42 42 W 8 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 40 40 W 8 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 39 39 W 8 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 38 38 W 8 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 38 38 W 8 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 42 42 W 8 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 49 49 W 8 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 57 57 W 8 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 64 65 W 8 8576 6560 660 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 68 70 W 8 10799 9314 3414 Blue 5
12 Noon Thu 67 69 W 8 10194 8927 3027 Blue 4
1 PM Thu 67 68 W 12 9749 8534 2634 Blue 3
2 PM Thu 64 65 W 12 8576 6560 660 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 60 60 W 12 4986 5900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 56 56 W 10 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 51 51 W 10 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 46 46 W 10 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 43 43 W 8 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 43 43 W 8 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 44 44 W 8 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 46 46 W 8 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 47 47 W 8 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 46 46 W 8 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 44 44 W 8 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 41 41 W 8 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 38 38 W 8 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 36 36 NW 7 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 37 37 NW 7 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 40 40 NW 7 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 45 45 NW 3 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 52 52 NW 3 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 58 58 NW 3 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 64 66 SW 6 8973 7273 1373 Blue 1
11 AM Fri 67 69 SW 6 10194 8927 3027 Blue 4
12 Noon Fri 67 69 SW 6 10194 8927 3027 Blue 4
1 PM Fri 67 69 W 6 10194 8927 3027 Blue 4
2 PM Fri 67 68 W 6 9749 8534 2634 Blue 3
3 PM Fri 66 66 W 6 8973 7273 1373 Blue 1
4 PM Fri 62 62 NW 6 6590 5900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 55 55 NW 6 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 48 48 NW 6 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 43 43 NW 6 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 42 42 NW 6 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 42 42 NW 6 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 43 43 NE 7 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 42 42 NE 7 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 40 40 NE 7 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 38 38 NE 6 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 36 36 NE 6 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 35 35 NE 6 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 35 35 NE 8 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 36 36 NE 8 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 39 39 NE 8 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 43 43 NE 12 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 50 50 NE 12 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 57 58 NE 12 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 64 66 NE 13 8973 7273 1373 Blue 1
11 AM Sat 68 71 NE 13 11409 9695 3795 Blue 6
12 Noon Sat 70 73 NE 13 12175 10690 4790 Blue 8
1 PM Sat 69 72 NE 12 11832 10124 4224 Blue 7
2 PM Sat 70 72 NE 12 11832 10124 4224 Blue 7
3 PM Sat 68 69 NE 12 10194 8927 3027 Blue 4
4 PM Sat 64 64 NE 13 8006 5900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 58 58 NE 13 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 51 51 NE 13 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 46 46 NE 16 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 44 44 NE 16 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 45 45 NE 16 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 46 46 NE 18 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 46 46 NE 18 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 46 46 NE 18 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 46 46 NE 20 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 45 45 NE 20 4970 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 44 44 NE 20 4970 5900 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst