Detailed Predictions for: Thomas Mt
Launch Altitude (f): 5900
LZ Altitude (f): 4550
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

22 APR 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 47 47 NW 6 5292 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 50 50 N 5 5292 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 54 54 N 2 5292 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 59 60 N 1 5666 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 62 64 N 1 8933 6104 204 Blue 3
10 AM Sun 65 68 W 1 11862 10089 4189 Blue 7
11 AM Sun 68 73 SW 2 12609 12095 6195 Blue 12
12 Noon Sun 71 76 W 3 13991 12571 6671 Blue 15
1 PM Sun 72 77 W 6 14459 12891 6991 Blue 16
2 PM Sun 72 77 W 8 14459 12891 6991 Blue 16
3 PM Sun 72 76 W 10 13991 12571 6671 Blue 15
4 PM Sun 70 72 W 13 12450 11936 6036 Blue 11
5 PM Sun 66 67 W 15 11774 8762 2862 Blue 6
6 PM Sun 61 61 W 15 6112 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 56 56 W 14 5292 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 52 52 NW 13 5292 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 50 50 NW 13 5292 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 50 50 NW 13 5292 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 50 50 NW 13 5292 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 50 50 NW 13 5292 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 50 50 NW 13 5292 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 49 49 NW 12 5292 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 47 47 NW 12 5292 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 46 46 NW 12 5292 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 46 46 NW 10 5292 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 49 49 NW 10 5292 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 54 54 NW 9 5292 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 58 59 NW 8 5292 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 62 65 NW 7 10796 6551 651 Blue 4
10 AM Mon 65 70 NW 7 12131 11755 5855 Blue 9
11 AM Mon 68 74 W 6 13017 12254 6354 Blue 13
12 Noon Mon 70 77 W 7 14459 12891 6991 Blue 16
1 PM Mon 72 79 W 7 15940 13855 7955 Blue 18
2 PM Mon 72 78 W 8 14976 13379 7479 Blue 17
3 PM Mon 73 78 W 10 14976 13379 7479 Blue 17
4 PM Mon 71 74 W 12 13017 12254 6354 Blue 13
5 PM Mon 68 69 W 12 11971 11640 5740 Blue 8
6 PM Mon 64 64 W 12 8933 6104 204 Blue 3
7 PM Mon 60 60 NW 10 5666 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 57 57 NW 9 5292 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 55 55 NW 9 5292 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 54 54 NW 9 5292 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 53 53 NW 9 5292 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 52 52 NW 9 5292 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 51 51 NW 9 5292 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 50 50 NW 9 5292 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 47 47 NW 9 5292 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 46 46 NW 9 5292 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 47 47 NW 8 5292 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 51 51 NW 7 5292 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 57 57 N 6 5292 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 62 63 E 5 7472 5900 0 Blue 2
9 AM Tue 66 68 E 3 11862 10089 4189 Blue 7
10 AM Tue 68 72 E 5 12450 11936 6036 Blue 11
11 AM Tue 70 75 SE 8 13511 12412 6512 Blue 14
12 Noon Tue 72 77 SE 7 14459 12891 6991 Blue 16
1 PM Tue 73 78 SE 7 14976 13379 7479 Blue 17
2 PM Tue 73 78 S 3 14976 13379 7479 Blue 17
3 PM Tue 74 78 SW 7 14976 13379 7479 Blue 17
4 PM Tue 71 73 W 9 12609 12095 6195 Blue 12
5 PM Tue 67 68 W 12 11862 10089 4189 Blue 7
6 PM Tue 62 62 W 13 6587 5900 0 Blue 1
7 PM Tue 56 56 NW 12 5292 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 51 51 NW 12 5292 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 48 48 NW 12 5292 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 47 47 NW 12 5292 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 48 48 NW 10 5292 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 49 49 NW 10 5292 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 50 50 NW 10 5292 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 50 50 NW 12 5292 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 48 48 NW 12 5292 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 45 45 NW 12 5292 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 44 44 NW 8 5292 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 48 48 NW 8 5292 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 54 54 NW 8 5292 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 61 62 NW 7 6587 5900 0 Blue 1
9 AM Wed 66 68 NW 7 11862 10089 4189 Blue 7
10 AM Wed 68 71 NW 7 12290 11843 5943 Blue 10
11 AM Wed 70 75 W 7 13511 12412 6512 Blue 14
12 Noon Wed 70 76 W 7 13991 12571 6671 Blue 15
1 PM Wed 70 76 W 7 13991 12571 6671 Blue 15
2 PM Wed 69 75 W 10 13511 12412 6512 Blue 14
3 PM Wed 67 71 W 10 12290 11843 5943 Blue 10
4 PM Wed 65 68 W 10 11862 10089 4189 Blue 7
5 PM Wed 62 63 W 13 7472 5900 0 Blue 2
6 PM Wed 57 57 W 13 5292 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 53 53 W 13 5292 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 50 50 W 12 5292 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 49 49 W 12 5292 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 49 49 W 12 5292 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 50 50 NW 9 5292 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 50 50 NW 9 5292 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 49 49 NW 9 5292 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 47 47 NW 9 5292 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 45 45 NW 9 5292 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 44 44 NW 9 5292 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 45 45 NW 10 5292 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 48 48 NW 10 5292 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 53 53 NW 10 5292 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 58 59 NW 10 5292 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 62 64 NW 10 8933 6104 204 Blue 3
10 AM Thu 66 70 NW 10 12131 11755 5855 Blue 9
11 AM Thu 69 74 W 10 13017 12254 6354 Blue 13
12 Noon Thu 70 76 W 10 13991 12571 6671 Blue 15
1 PM Thu 70 76 W 10 13991 12571 6671 Blue 15
2 PM Thu 70 76 W 13 13991 12571 6671 Blue 15
3 PM Thu 69 73 W 13 12609 12095 6195 Blue 12
4 PM Thu 67 70 W 13 12131 11755 5855 Blue 9
5 PM Thu 64 65 W 14 10796 6551 651 Blue 4
6 PM Thu 60 60 W 14 5666 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 56 56 W 14 5292 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 53 53 W 13 5292 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 51 51 W 13 5292 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 50 50 W 13 5292 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 49 49 NW 12 5292 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 48 48 NW 12 5292 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 46 46 NW 12 5292 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 45 45 NW 10 5292 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 44 44 NW 10 5292 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 44 44 NW 10 5292 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 44 44 NW 10 5292 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 45 45 NW 10 5292 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 47 47 NW 10 5292 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 50 51 W 10 5292 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 54 56 W 10 5292 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 58 62 W 10 6587 5900 0 Blue 1
11 AM Fri 63 69 W 12 11971 11640 5740 Blue 8
12 Noon Fri 67 74 W 12 13017 12254 6354 Blue 13
1 PM Fri 70 77 W 12 14459 12891 6991 Blue 16
2 PM Fri 70 76 W 13 13991 12571 6671 Blue 15
3 PM Fri 68 73 W 13 12609 12095 6195 Blue 12
4 PM Fri 64 67 W 13 11774 8762 2862 Blue 6
5 PM Fri 60 61 W 14 6112 5900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 56 56 W 14 5292 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 51 51 W 14 5292 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 47 47 W 12 5292 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 44 44 W 12 5292 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 43 43 W 12 5292 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 42 42 W 10 5292 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 42 42 W 10 5292 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 43 43 W 10 5292 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 44 44 W 10 5292 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 43 43 W 10 5292 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 42 42 W 10 5292 5900 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst