Detailed Predictions for: Thomas Mt
Launch Altitude (f): 5900
LZ Altitude (f): 4550
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

21 JUL 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 55 55 NW 5 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 54 54 NW 5 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 56 56 NW 3 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 72 73 SW 2 5113 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 80 83 S 5 8367 6474 574 Blue 6
10 AM Sun 88 93 S 6 15761 13718 7818 Blue 16
11 AM Sun 88 93 S 7 15761 13718 7818 Blue 16
12 Noon Sun 89 95 S 7 17540 15097 9197 Blue 18
1 PM Sun 89 96 S 7 17832 15656 9756 Blue 19
2 PM Sun 89 95 W 7 17540 15097 9197 Blue 18
3 PM Sun 89 94 W 7 16647 14383 8483 Blue 17
4 PM Sun 88 92 W 7 15448 12579 6679 Blue 15
5 PM Sun 87 89 W 8 12872 10805 4905 Blue 12
6 PM Sun 85 86 W 7 10862 8302 2402 Blue 9
7 PM Sun 82 82 W 6 7033 6199 299 Blue 5
8 PM Sun 75 75 NW 3 5384 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 71 71 NW 2 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 68 68 NW 2 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 64 64 NW 2 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 62 62 NW 2 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 59 59 NW 2 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 57 57 NW 2 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 55 55 NW 2 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 54 54 NW 2 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 54 54 N 2 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 52 52 NW 2 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 54 54 W 3 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 71 72 W 3 4978 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 79 81 W 5 6759 5922 22 Blue 4
10 AM Mon 87 90 SW 6 14007 11360 5460 Blue 13
11 AM Mon 87 90 SW 7 14007 11360 5460 Blue 13
12 Noon Mon 89 93 SW 7 15761 13718 7818 Blue 16
1 PM Mon 89 93 W 8 15761 13718 7818 Blue 16
2 PM Mon 89 93 NW 8 15761 13718 7818 Blue 16
3 PM Mon 89 92 NW 8 15448 12579 6679 Blue 15
4 PM Mon 88 90 NW 8 14007 11360 5460 Blue 13
5 PM Mon 87 88 NW 8 12146 9340 3440 Blue 11
6 PM Mon 85 85 NW 8 9416 7019 1119 Blue 8
7 PM Mon 82 82 NW 8 7033 6199 299 Blue 5
8 PM Mon 75 75 NW 8 5384 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 71 71 NW 7 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 68 68 NW 6 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 64 64 NW 5 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 63 63 NW 5 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 60 60 NW 6 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 58 58 NW 6 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 56 56 NW 6 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 55 55 N 5 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 54 54 N 5 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 53 53 NE 3 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 55 55 NE 3 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 70 70 E 5 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 78 80 E 5 6484 5900 0 Blue 3
10 AM Tue 86 89 E 6 12872 10805 4905 Blue 12
11 AM Tue 86 88 SE 7 12146 9340 3440 Blue 11
12 Noon Tue 87 90 S 7 14007 11360 5460 Blue 13
1 PM Tue 87 90 SW 6 14007 11360 5460 Blue 13
2 PM Tue 87 90 W 6 14007 11360 5460 Blue 13
3 PM Tue 87 89 W 7 12872 10805 4905 Blue 12
4 PM Tue 86 87 W 8 11561 8733 2833 Blue 10
5 PM Tue 85 86 W 9 10862 8302 2402 Blue 9
6 PM Tue 84 84 W 9 8800 6747 847 Blue 7
7 PM Tue 81 81 NW 9 6759 5922 22 Blue 4
8 PM Tue 74 74 NW 9 5249 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 71 71 NW 8 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 68 68 NW 7 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 64 64 NW 6 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 63 63 N 7 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 60 60 NE 8 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 59 59 E 9 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 57 57 E 8 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 56 56 E 6 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 55 55 E 5 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 54 54 E 5 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 56 56 E 5 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 71 72 E 7 4978 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 78 80 E 7 6484 5900 0 Blue 3
10 AM Wed 86 89 E 7 12872 10805 4905 Blue 12
11 AM Wed 86 89 SE 7 12872 10805 4905 Blue 12
12 Noon Wed 87 91 SE 7 14497 12056 6156 Blue 14
1 PM Wed 87 91 SE 7 14497 12056 6156 Blue 14
2 PM Wed 87 90 SW 10 14007 11360 5460 Blue 13
3 PM Wed 87 90 SW 10 14007 11360 5460 Blue 13
4 PM Wed 86 88 SW 10 12146 9340 3440 Blue 11
5 PM Wed 85 86 NW 8 10862 8302 2402 Blue 9
6 PM Wed 83 83 NW 8 8367 6474 574 Blue 6
7 PM Wed 80 80 NW 8 6484 5900 0 Blue 3
8 PM Wed 74 74 W 8 5249 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 70 70 W 8 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 68 68 W 8 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 64 64 NW 7 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 62 62 NW 7 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 60 60 NW 7 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 58 58 NW 8 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 56 56 NW 8 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 55 55 NW 8 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 54 54 NW 7 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 53 53 NW 7 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 55 55 NW 7 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 70 71 NW 6 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 78 80 NW 6 6484 5900 0 Blue 3
10 AM Thu 86 89 NW 6 12872 10805 4905 Blue 12
11 AM Thu 86 90 W 7 14007 11360 5460 Blue 13
12 Noon Thu 87 92 W 7 15448 12579 6679 Blue 15
1 PM Thu 87 92 W 7 15448 12579 6679 Blue 15
2 PM Thu 87 92 W 10 15448 12579 6679 Blue 15
3 PM Thu 87 91 W 10 14497 12056 6156 Blue 14
4 PM Thu 86 89 W 10 12872 10805 4905 Blue 12
5 PM Thu 85 86 W 13 10862 8302 2402 Blue 9
6 PM Thu 83 83 W 13 8367 6474 574 Blue 6
7 PM Thu 80 80 W 13 6484 5900 0 Blue 3
8 PM Thu 74 74 W 10 5249 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 70 70 W 10 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 67 67 W 10 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 63 63 NW 10 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 61 61 NW 10 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 59 59 NW 10 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 57 57 NW 9 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 55 55 NW 9 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 54 54 NW 9 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 53 53 NW 8 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 52 52 NW 8 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 54 54 NW 8 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 70 71 NW 5 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 78 80 NW 5 6484 5900 0 Blue 3
10 AM Fri 86 90 NW 5 14007 11360 5460 Blue 13
11 AM Fri 86 91 W 7 14497 12056 6156 Blue 14
12 Noon Fri 88 94 W 7 16647 14383 8483 Blue 17
1 PM Fri 88 95 W 7 17540 15097 9197 Blue 18
2 PM Fri 88 94 W 10 16647 14383 8483 Blue 17
3 PM Fri 88 93 W 10 15761 13718 7818 Blue 16
4 PM Fri 87 91 W 10 14497 12056 6156 Blue 14
5 PM Fri 86 88 W 14 12146 9340 3440 Blue 11
6 PM Fri 84 85 W 14 9416 7019 1119 Blue 8
7 PM Fri 81 81 W 14 6759 5922 22 Blue 4
8 PM Fri 73 73 NW 12 5113 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 69 69 NW 12 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 66 66 NW 12 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 62 62 NW 10 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 60 60 NW 10 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 57 57 NW 10 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 55 55 NW 10 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 53 53 NW 10 4947 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 52 52 NW 10 4947 5900 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst