Detailed Predictions for: Thomas Mt
Launch Altitude (f): 5900
LZ Altitude (f): 4550
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

20 JUL 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Fri 64 64 E 2 5000 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 66 66 E 3 5000 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 70 70 E 3 5665 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 74 75 SE 3 6889 6232 332 Blue 1
9 AM Fri 78 81 SE 5 9726 8642 2742 Blue 7
10 AM Fri 82 86 SE 6 11975 10379 4479 White 12
11 AM Fri 84 89 S 8 12618 12103 6203 White 15
12 Noon Fri 85 90 S 8 12831 12831 6931 White 16
1 PM Fri 84 90 S 7 12831 12831 6931 White 16
2 PM Fri 84 88 W 6 12405 11094 5194 White 14
3 PM Fri 83 87 W 7 12190 10738 4838 White 13
4 PM Fri 81 83 W 8 10435 9336 3436 Blue 9
5 PM Fri 78 79 NW 12 9031 7345 1445 Blue 5
6 PM Fri 75 75 NW 12 6889 6232 332 Blue 1
7 PM Fri 71 71 NW 12 5953 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 68 68 NW 9 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 67 67 NW 8 5000 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 68 68 NW 8 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 68 68 NW 6 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 68 68 NW 6 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 68 68 NW 6 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 67 67 NW 6 5000 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 66 66 NW 5 5000 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 65 65 NW 5 5000 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 66 66 NW 3 5000 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 68 68 W 3 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 72 72 W 3 6240 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 76 77 SW 2 8096 6734 834 Blue 3
9 AM Sat 79 81 S 2 9726 8642 2742 Blue 7
10 AM Sat 82 86 SW 3 11975 10379 4479 White 12
11 AM Sat 84 88 SW 6 12405 11094 5194 White 14
12 Noon Sat 84 89 W 6 12618 12103 6203 White 15
1 PM Sat 85 90 W 7 12831 12831 6931 White 16
2 PM Sat 84 89 W 9 12618 12103 6203 White 15
3 PM Sat 85 89 W 9 12618 12103 6203 White 15
4 PM Sat 83 86 W 10 11975 10379 4479 White 12
5 PM Sat 81 83 W 14 10435 9336 3436 Blue 9
6 PM Sat 77 78 W 14 8679 6882 982 Blue 4
7 PM Sat 73 73 W 13 6525 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 70 70 NW 10 5665 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 69 69 NW 10 5374 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 69 69 NW 10 5374 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 70 70 NW 9 5665 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 70 70 NW 9 5665 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 70 70 NW 9 5665 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 68 68 NW 10 5082 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 66 66 NW 10 5000 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 65 65 NW 9 5000 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 66 66 NW 8 5000 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 69 69 NW 7 5374 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 73 73 NW 7 6525 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 78 79 N 3 9031 7345 1445 Blue 5
9 AM Sun 81 83 NW 1 10435 9336 3436 Blue 9
10 AM Sun 84 88 W 2 12405 11094 5194 White 14
11 AM Sun 86 92 W 6 13255 13255 7355 White 18
12 Noon Sun 87 94 W 6 13676 13676 7776 White 20
1 PM Sun 88 95 W 6 13888 13888 7988 White 21
2 PM Sun 87 93 W 10 13465 13465 7565 White 19
3 PM Sun 88 93 W 12 13465 13465 7565 White 19
4 PM Sun 86 90 W 12 12831 12831 6931 White 16
5 PM Sun 84 86 W 12 11975 10379 4479 White 12
6 PM Sun 80 81 W 12 9726 8642 2742 Blue 7
7 PM Sun 76 76 NW 12 7391 6514 614 Blue 2
8 PM Sun 73 73 NW 12 6525 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 71 71 NW 13 5953 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 70 70 NW 13 5665 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 70 70 NW 13 5665 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 70 70 NW 14 5665 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 71 71 NW 15 5953 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 71 71 NW 14 5953 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 70 70 NW 12 5665 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 69 69 N 7 5374 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 70 70 N 5 5665 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 74 74 N 5 6741 5947 47 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 79 79 N 5 9031 7345 1445 Blue 5
8 AM Mon 84 85 NE 8 11160 10027 4127 Blue 11
9 AM Mon 88 90 NE 8 12831 12831 6931 White 16
10 AM Mon 89 93 NE 8 13465 13465 7565 White 19
11 AM Mon 90 96 NE 6 14096 14096 8196 White 22
12 Noon Mon 92 99 NE 6 14714 14714 8814 White 25
1 PM Mon 93 100 NE 6 14920 14920 9020 White 26
2 PM Mon 94 101 W 2 15125 15125 9225 White 27
3 PM Mon 94 99 W 2 14714 14714 8814 White 25
4 PM Mon 92 96 W 2 14096 14096 8196 White 22
5 PM Mon 89 91 W 12 13042 13042 7142 White 17
6 PM Mon 85 86 W 12 11975 10379 4479 White 12
7 PM Mon 79 79 W 12 9031 7345 1445 Blue 5
8 PM Mon 75 75 W 12 6889 6232 332 Blue 1
9 PM Mon 72 72 W 12 6240 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 71 71 W 12 5953 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 71 71 NW 13 5953 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 72 72 NW 13 6240 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 73 73 NW 13 6525 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 74 74 NW 13 6741 5947 47 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 74 74 NW 13 6741 5947 47 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 74 74 NW 13 6741 5947 47 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 75 75 NW 8 6889 6232 332 Blue 1
6 AM Tue 78 78 NW 8 8679 6882 982 Blue 4
7 AM Tue 82 82 NW 8 10080 8991 3091 Blue 8
8 AM Tue 86 87 E 5 12190 10738 4838 White 13
9 AM Tue 90 92 E 5 13255 13255 7355 White 18
10 AM Tue 93 97 E 5 14303 14303 8403 White 23
11 AM Tue 95 100 S 5 14920 14920 9020 White 26
12 Noon Tue 95 101 S 5 15125 15125 9225 White 27
1 PM Tue 95 101 S 5 15125 15125 9225 White 27
2 PM Tue 94 100 W 8 14920 14920 9020 White 26
3 PM Tue 94 99 W 8 14714 14714 8814 White 25
4 PM Tue 93 96 W 8 14096 14096 8196 White 22
5 PM Tue 91 93 W 13 13465 13465 7565 White 19
6 PM Tue 87 88 W 13 12405 11094 5194 White 14
7 PM Tue 81 81 W 13 9726 8642 2742 Blue 7
8 PM Tue 77 77 W 14 8096 6734 834 Blue 3
9 PM Tue 75 75 W 14 6889 6232 332 Blue 1
10 PM Tue 74 74 W 14 6741 5947 47 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 74 74 NW 13 6741 5947 47 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 75 75 NW 13 6889 6232 332 Blue 1
1 AM Wed 76 76 NW 13 7391 6514 614 Blue 2
2 AM Wed 76 76 NW 15 7391 6514 614 Blue 2
3 AM Wed 76 76 NW 15 7391 6514 614 Blue 2
4 AM Wed 75 75 NW 15 6889 6232 332 Blue 1
5 AM Wed 76 76 NW 9 7391 6514 614 Blue 2
6 AM Wed 80 80 NW 9 9380 8037 2137 Blue 6
7 AM Wed 84 84 NW 9 10800 9678 3778 Blue 10
8 AM Wed 88 89 E 8 12618 12103 6203 White 15
9 AM Wed 92 94 E 8 13676 13676 7776 White 20
10 AM Wed 94 98 E 8 14509 14509 8609 White 24
11 AM Wed 95 101 S 6 15125 15125 9225 White 27
12 Noon Wed 95 102 S 6 15329 15329 9429 White 28
1 PM Wed 94 101 S 6 15125 15125 9225 White 27
2 PM Wed 94 101 W 12 15125 15125 9225 White 27
3 PM Wed 93 98 W 12 14509 14509 8609 White 24
4 PM Wed 91 95 W 12 13888 13888 7988 White 21
5 PM Wed 88 90 W 13 12831 12831 6931 White 16
6 PM Wed 83 84 W 13 10800 9678 3778 Blue 10
7 PM Wed 77 77 W 13 8096 6734 834 Blue 3
8 PM Wed 73 73 W 13 6525 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 71 71 W 13 5953 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 71 71 W 13 5953 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 72 72 NW 14 6240 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 72 72 NW 14 6240 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 72 72 NW 14 6240 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 72 72 NW 14 6240 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 72 72 NW 14 6240 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 72 72 NW 14 6240 5900 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst