Detailed Predictions for: Thomas Mt
Launch Altitude (f): 5900
LZ Altitude (f): 4550
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

18 SEP 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Wed 46 46 W 5 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 48 48 W 5 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 52 52 W 5 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 57 57 W 5 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 62 63 W 6 5117 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 66 69 W 7 6613 5900 0 Blue 3
11 AM Wed 70 75 W 8 9208 8178 2278 Blue 9
12 Noon Wed 72 78 W 10 11131 9181 3281 Blue 12
1 PM Wed 74 80 W 10 12034 10022 4122 Blue 14
2 PM Wed 73 79 W 13 11754 9400 3500 Blue 13
3 PM Wed 73 77 W 13 10104 8961 3061 Blue 11
4 PM Wed 70 73 W 14 8733 7135 1235 Blue 7
5 PM Wed 66 67 W 14 5704 5900 0 Blue 1
6 PM Wed 61 61 W 13 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 56 56 W 12 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 52 52 NW 10 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 49 49 W 9 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 48 48 W 9 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 48 48 W 8 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 47 47 W 8 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 46 46 W 8 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 45 45 W 9 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 44 44 W 9 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 42 42 W 9 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 42 42 W 10 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 43 43 W 10 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 46 46 W 10 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 50 50 W 10 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 54 56 W 12 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 59 62 W 13 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 63 68 W 14 6046 5900 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Thu 66 72 W 16 8225 6591 691 Blue 6
1 PM Thu 68 75 W 16 9208 8178 2278 Blue 9
2 PM Thu 67 73 W 17 8733 7135 1235 Blue 7
3 PM Thu 67 72 W 16 8225 6591 691 Blue 6
4 PM Thu 64 67 W 16 5704 5900 0 Blue 1
5 PM Thu 60 61 W 14 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 54 54 W 13 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 48 48 W 12 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 43 43 NW 10 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 40 40 NW 9 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 39 39 NW 9 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 39 39 NW 9 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 40 40 NW 9 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 41 41 NW 9 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 41 41 NW 10 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 40 40 NW 9 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 40 40 NW 8 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 40 40 NW 8 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 42 42 N 7 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 45 45 N 7 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 49 49 NE 7 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 54 56 NE 9 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 58 61 NE 10 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 61 66 NE 12 5441 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 65 71 NE 12 7703 6039 139 Blue 5
1 PM Fri 68 74 NE 10 8986 7664 1764 Blue 8
2 PM Fri 71 77 NE 9 10104 8961 3061 Blue 11
3 PM Fri 74 78 NE 8 11131 9181 3281 Blue 12
4 PM Fri 74 77 NE 7 10104 8961 3061 Blue 11
5 PM Fri 74 75 NE 6 9208 8178 2278 Blue 9
6 PM Fri 70 70 N 6 7166 5900 0 Blue 4
7 PM Fri 65 65 N 5 5333 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 60 60 NW 5 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 57 57 N 5 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 56 56 NE 5 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 55 55 NE 5 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 54 54 NE 5 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 52 52 NE 5 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 50 50 NE 5 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 47 47 NE 5 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 46 46 NE 6 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 47 47 NE 6 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 51 51 NE 6 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 56 56 NE 6 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 61 61 NE 6 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 65 66 NE 6 5441 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 68 71 NE 6 7703 6039 139 Blue 5
11 AM Sat 70 75 E 8 9208 8178 2278 Blue 9
12 Noon Sat 72 78 E 8 11131 9181 3281 Blue 12
1 PM Sat 74 80 E 8 12034 10022 4122 Blue 14
2 PM Sat 76 82 E 9 12588 11696 5796 Blue 16
3 PM Sat 78 82 E 9 12588 11696 5796 Blue 16
4 PM Sat 77 80 E 9 12034 10022 4122 Blue 14
5 PM Sat 76 77 SE 8 10104 8961 3061 Blue 11
6 PM Sat 72 72 SE 8 8225 6591 691 Blue 6
7 PM Sat 67 67 SE 8 5704 5900 0 Blue 1
8 PM Sat 62 62 SE 5 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 60 60 SE 5 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 59 59 SE 5 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 58 58 E 2 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 56 56 E 2 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 52 52 E 2 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 49 49 SE 6 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 47 47 SE 6 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 46 46 SE 6 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 46 46 SE 8 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 49 49 SE 8 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 53 53 SE 8 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 57 57 E 6 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 62 63 E 6 5117 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 66 69 E 6 6613 5900 0 Blue 3
11 AM Sun 71 75 S 8 9208 8178 2278 Blue 9
12 Noon Sun 75 80 S 8 12034 10022 4122 Blue 14
1 PM Sun 78 83 S 8 12862 11973 6073 Blue 17
2 PM Sun 78 83 SW 10 12862 11973 6073 Blue 17
3 PM Sun 78 82 SW 10 12588 11696 5796 Blue 16
4 PM Sun 75 77 SW 10 10104 8961 3061 Blue 11
5 PM Sun 71 72 W 13 8225 6591 691 Blue 6
6 PM Sun 67 67 W 13 5704 5900 0 Blue 1
7 PM Sun 64 64 W 13 5225 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 61 61 W 8 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 59 59 W 8 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 57 57 W 8 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 56 56 W 7 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 55 55 W 7 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 53 53 W 7 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 51 51 W 10 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 49 49 W 10 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 47 47 W 10 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 46 46 W 9 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 44 44 W 9 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 44 44 W 9 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 45 45 SW 9 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 48 49 SW 9 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 54 57 SW 9 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 61 65 W 15 5333 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 66 71 W 15 7703 6039 139 Blue 5
1 PM Mon 71 76 W 15 9428 8679 2779 Blue 10
2 PM Mon 74 79 W 16 11754 9400 3500 Blue 13
3 PM Mon 73 76 W 16 9428 8679 2779 Blue 10
4 PM Mon 72 74 W 16 8986 7664 1764 Blue 8
5 PM Mon 66 67 W 15 5704 5900 0 Blue 1
6 PM Mon 57 57 W 15 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 48 48 W 15 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 43 43 W 10 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 43 43 W 10 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 45 45 W 10 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 48 48 NW 8 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 48 48 NW 8 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 48 48 NW 8 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 47 47 N 8 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 46 46 N 8 5013 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 45 45 N 8 5013 5900 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst