Detailed Predictions for: Thomas Mt
Launch Altitude (f): 5900
LZ Altitude (f): 4550
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Wed 39 39 SW 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Wed 38 38 W 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Wed 38 38 SW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Wed 38 38 SW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Wed 40 40 SW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Wed 42 42 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Wed 46 46 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Wed 49 49 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Wed 50 50 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Wed 50 50 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Wed 50 50 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Wed 50 50 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Wed 49 49 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Wed 46 46 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Wed 45 45 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Wed 44 44 SW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Wed 43 43 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Wed 43 43 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Wed 43 43 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Wed 43 43 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Thu 43 43 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Thu 42 42 SW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Thu 42 42 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Thu 42 42 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Thu 42 42 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Thu 42 42 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 41 41 SW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 41 41 SW 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 42 42 SW 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 45 45 SW 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 48 48 SW 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 50 50 SW 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 52 52 W 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 51 51 W 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 52 52 W 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 51 51 SW 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 49 49 W 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 45 45 W 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 43 43 W 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 42 42 W 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 41 41 W 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 41 41 W 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 41 41 W 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 41 41 W 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 41 41 W 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 40 40 W 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 39 39 W 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 40 40 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 39 39 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 39 39 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 38 38 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 38 38 NW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 40 40 NW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 43 43 NW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 47 48 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 50 52 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 52 54 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 52 53 NW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 53 54 NW 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 52 52 NW 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 50 50 E 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 46 46 E 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 44 44 NE 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 43 43 NE 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 42 42 NE 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 42 42 NE 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 42 42 NE 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 42 42 NE 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 42 42 NE 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 40 40 NE 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 40 40 NE 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 40 40 NE 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 40 40 NE 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 40 40 NE 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 39 39 NE 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 39 39 NE 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 41 41 NE 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 44 45 NE 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 49 51 NE 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 52 54 NE 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 54 56 NE 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 55 57 NE 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 55 56 NE 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 54 54 NE 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 52 52 NE 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 48 48 NE 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 46 46 NE 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 45 45 NE 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 44 44 NE 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 44 44 NE 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 44 44 NE 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 44 44 NE 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 44 44 NE 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 42 42 NE 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 42 42 NE 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 42 42 NE 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 42 42 NE 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 42 42 NE 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 41 41 NE 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 41 41 E 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 43 43 E 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 47 48 E 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 52 53 E 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 56 58 E 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 58 60 E 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 59 61 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 59 60 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 58 58 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 55 55 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 50 50 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 47 47 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 45 45 NW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 44 44 NW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 44 44 NW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 44 44 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 44 44 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 44 44 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 42 42 NW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 42 42 NW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 42 42 NW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 42 42 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 41 41 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 40 40 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 40 40 NE 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 42 42 NE 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 44 45 NE 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 48 49 NE 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 51 53 NE 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 52 54 NE 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 53 55 NE 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 53 54 NE 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 52 52 NE 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 49 49 NE 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 44 44 NE 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 42 42 NE 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 40 40 NE 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 39 39 NE 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 39 39 NE 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 38 38 NE 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 38 38 NE 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 38 38 NE 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 37 37 NE 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 36 36 NE 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 37 37 NE 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst