Detailed Predictions for: Thomas Mt
Launch Altitude (f): 5900
LZ Altitude (f): 4550
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

21 SEP 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Fri 60 60 SE 2 4993 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 60 60 SW 1 4993 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 60 60 SW 1 4993 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 65 65 S 0 4993 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 71 73 S 2 6265 5900 0 Blue 2
10 AM Fri 78 81 S 3 12066 10303 4403 Blue 10
11 AM Fri 80 84 S 6 12264 12052 6152 Blue 13
12 Noon Fri 81 86 S 6 13893 12183 6283 Blue 15
1 PM Fri 82 87 SW 5 14748 12249 6349 Blue 16
2 PM Fri 82 87 NW 8 14748 12249 6349 Blue 16
3 PM Fri 82 86 NW 7 13893 12183 6283 Blue 15
4 PM Fri 82 84 NW 8 12264 12052 6152 Blue 13
5 PM Fri 79 80 W 9 12001 9888 3988 Blue 9
6 PM Fri 77 77 W 10 9949 8377 2477 Blue 6
7 PM Fri 73 73 NW 9 6265 5900 0 Blue 2
8 PM Fri 70 70 NW 7 4993 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 67 67 NW 7 4993 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 65 65 NW 7 4993 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 64 64 NW 6 4993 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 64 64 NW 6 4993 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 63 63 NW 5 4993 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 63 63 NW 3 4993 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 62 62 NW 3 4993 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 62 62 N 2 4993 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 61 61 E 1 4993 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 61 61 E 1 4993 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 62 62 SE 2 4993 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 66 66 SE 5 4993 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 72 73 SE 7 6265 5900 0 Blue 2
10 AM Sat 78 81 SE 7 12066 10303 4403 Blue 10
11 AM Sat 81 85 S 8 12941 12118 6218 Blue 14
12 Noon Sat 82 87 S 7 14748 12249 6349 Blue 16
1 PM Sat 84 90 S 7 16944 14498 8598 Blue 19
2 PM Sat 83 88 SW 6 15532 12695 6795 Blue 17
3 PM Sat 83 87 W 6 14748 12249 6349 Blue 16
4 PM Sat 83 85 W 6 12941 12118 6218 Blue 14
5 PM Sat 80 81 W 9 12066 10303 4403 Blue 10
6 PM Sat 77 77 W 10 9949 8377 2477 Blue 6
7 PM Sat 73 73 W 10 6265 5900 0 Blue 2
8 PM Sat 69 69 NW 10 4993 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 67 67 NW 10 4993 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 65 65 NW 10 4993 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 64 64 NW 10 4993 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 63 63 NW 10 4993 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 62 62 NW 10 4993 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 62 62 NW 10 4993 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 62 62 NW 10 4993 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 61 61 NW 10 4993 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 60 60 NW 10 4993 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 60 60 NW 10 4993 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 60 60 NW 10 4993 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 65 65 NW 8 4993 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 71 72 W 7 5525 5900 0 Blue 1
10 AM Sun 78 81 W 8 12066 10303 4403 Blue 10
11 AM Sun 80 85 W 12 12941 12118 6218 Blue 14
12 Noon Sun 81 87 SW 13 14748 12249 6349 Blue 16
1 PM Sun 82 88 W 13 15532 12695 6795 Blue 17
2 PM Sun 82 87 W 16 14748 12249 6349 Blue 16
3 PM Sun 82 86 W 16 13893 12183 6283 Blue 15
4 PM Sun 82 84 W 16 12264 12052 6152 Blue 13
5 PM Sun 78 79 W 16 10724 9466 3566 Blue 8
6 PM Sun 76 76 W 14 9522 6240 340 Blue 5
7 PM Sun 72 72 W 13 5525 5900 0 Blue 1
8 PM Sun 68 68 W 12 4993 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 65 65 W 10 4993 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 63 63 W 13 4993 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 62 62 W 12 4993 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 61 61 W 13 4993 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 61 61 W 14 4993 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 60 60 W 14 4993 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 60 60 W 14 4993 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 59 59 W 14 4993 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 58 58 NW 10 4993 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 58 58 NW 10 4993 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 59 59 NW 10 4993 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 63 63 NW 5 4993 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 70 72 NW 5 5525 5900 0 Blue 1
10 AM Mon 77 80 NW 5 12001 9888 3988 Blue 9
11 AM Mon 79 84 S 5 12264 12052 6152 Blue 13
12 Noon Mon 81 87 S 5 14748 12249 6349 Blue 16
1 PM Mon 82 88 S 5 15532 12695 6795 Blue 17
2 PM Mon 82 88 NW 7 15532 12695 6795 Blue 17
3 PM Mon 83 87 NW 7 14748 12249 6349 Blue 16
4 PM Mon 82 84 NW 7 12264 12052 6152 Blue 13
5 PM Mon 79 80 NW 9 12001 9888 3988 Blue 9
6 PM Mon 76 76 NW 9 9522 6240 340 Blue 5
7 PM Mon 72 72 NW 9 5525 5900 0 Blue 1
8 PM Mon 68 68 NW 8 4993 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 66 66 NW 8 4993 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 64 64 NW 8 4993 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 63 63 NE 3 4993 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 62 62 NE 3 4993 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 62 62 NE 3 4993 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 61 61 E 2 4993 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 60 60 E 2 4993 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 60 60 E 2 4993 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 59 59 NE 7 4993 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 59 59 NE 7 4993 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 60 60 NE 7 4993 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 64 64 NE 14 4993 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 70 72 NE 14 5525 5900 0 Blue 1
10 AM Tue 77 80 NE 14 12001 9888 3988 Blue 9
11 AM Tue 80 85 E 12 12941 12118 6218 Blue 14
12 Noon Tue 81 87 E 12 14748 12249 6349 Blue 16
1 PM Tue 82 88 E 12 15532 12695 6795 Blue 17
2 PM Tue 82 87 SE 9 14748 12249 6349 Blue 16
3 PM Tue 83 87 SE 9 14748 12249 6349 Blue 16
4 PM Tue 82 84 SE 9 12264 12052 6152 Blue 13
5 PM Tue 79 80 SE 5 12001 9888 3988 Blue 9
6 PM Tue 76 76 SE 5 9522 6240 340 Blue 5
7 PM Tue 73 73 SE 5 6265 5900 0 Blue 2
8 PM Tue 69 69 NE 3 4993 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 66 66 NE 3 4993 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 65 65 NE 3 4993 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 64 64 NE 3 4993 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 63 63 NE 3 4993 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 62 62 NE 3 4993 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 62 62 NE 5 4993 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 61 61 NE 5 4993 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 61 61 NE 5 4993 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 60 60 NE 8 4993 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 60 60 NE 8 4993 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 61 61 NE 8 4993 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 65 65 NE 12 4993 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 71 72 NE 12 5525 5900 0 Blue 1
10 AM Wed 78 81 NE 12 12066 10303 4403 Blue 10
11 AM Wed 80 85 E 7 12941 12118 6218 Blue 14
12 Noon Wed 82 88 E 7 15532 12695 6795 Blue 17
1 PM Wed 84 90 E 7 16944 14498 8598 Blue 19
2 PM Wed 83 88 E 7 15532 12695 6795 Blue 17
3 PM Wed 84 88 E 7 15532 12695 6795 Blue 17
4 PM Wed 83 85 E 7 12941 12118 6218 Blue 14
5 PM Wed 80 81 W 5 12066 10303 4403 Blue 10
6 PM Wed 77 77 W 5 9949 8377 2477 Blue 6
7 PM Wed 73 73 W 5 6265 5900 0 Blue 2
8 PM Wed 69 69 NW 9 4993 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 67 67 NW 9 4993 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 65 65 NW 9 4993 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 64 64 NW 5 4993 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 63 63 NW 5 4993 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 62 62 NW 5 4993 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 62 62 NW 3 4993 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 62 62 NW 3 4993 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 61 61 NW 3 4993 5900 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst