Detailed Predictions for: Thomas Mt
Launch Altitude (f): 5900
LZ Altitude (f): 4550
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

25 MAR 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Mon 45 45 E 6 5036 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 45 45 E 6 5036 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 45 45 E 6 5036 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 47 47 E 6 5036 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 51 52 E 6 5036 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 56 59 SE 6 8154 6750 850 Blue 2
11 AM Mon 61 66 S 6 12272 9317 3417 Blue 9
12 Noon Mon 64 70 S 6 12976 12436 6536 Blue 13
1 PM Mon 66 72 S 6 13151 12861 6961 Blue 15
2 PM Mon 67 72 SW 6 13151 12861 6961 Blue 15
3 PM Mon 66 70 W 7 12976 12436 6536 Blue 13
4 PM Mon 67 69 W 7 12889 12223 6323 Blue 12
5 PM Mon 64 65 W 9 11361 9023 3123 Blue 8
6 PM Mon 62 62 W 9 9059 8126 2226 Blue 5
7 PM Mon 57 57 W 8 7539 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 54 54 NW 7 5036 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 52 52 NW 6 5036 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 50 50 NW 6 5036 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 49 49 W 5 5036 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 48 48 W 5 5036 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 48 48 W 6 5036 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 48 48 W 6 5036 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 48 48 W 7 5036 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 47 47 W 7 5036 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 47 47 NW 8 5036 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 47 47 NW 8 5036 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 47 47 W 8 5036 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 49 49 W 8 5036 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 52 53 W 8 5036 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 57 59 W 8 8154 6750 850 Blue 2
11 AM Tue 61 64 W 8 9651 8726 2826 Blue 7
12 Noon Tue 63 66 W 9 12272 9317 3417 Blue 9
1 PM Tue 65 68 W 10 12701 10926 5026 Blue 11
2 PM Tue 66 69 W 12 12889 12223 6323 Blue 12
3 PM Tue 65 67 W 13 12487 9610 3710 Blue 10
4 PM Tue 66 67 W 14 12487 9610 3710 Blue 10
5 PM Tue 63 63 W 14 9356 8427 2527 Blue 6
6 PM Tue 61 61 W 14 8759 7823 1923 Blue 4
7 PM Tue 55 55 W 14 5606 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 52 52 W 13 5036 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 50 50 W 12 5036 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 48 48 W 10 5036 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 47 47 W 10 5036 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 46 46 W 10 5036 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 46 46 W 12 5036 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 46 46 W 13 5036 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 46 46 W 14 5036 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 45 45 W 14 5036 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 45 45 W 14 5036 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 45 45 W 14 5036 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 45 45 W 14 5036 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 46 46 W 14 5036 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 48 48 W 15 5036 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 51 52 W 17 5036 5900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 54 56 W 20 6801 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 55 58 W 21 7847 5900 0 Blue 1
1 PM Wed 56 59 W 22 8154 6750 850 Blue 2
2 PM Wed 57 60 W 23 8458 7517 1617 Blue 3
3 PM Wed 56 58 W 24 7847 5900 0 Blue 1
4 PM Wed 57 58 W 25 7847 5900 0 Blue 1
5 PM Wed 55 55 W 25 5606 5900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 53 53 W 23 5036 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 48 48 W 21 5036 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 46 46 W 17 5036 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 44 44 W 15 5036 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 43 43 W 14 5036 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 41 41 W 13 5036 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 41 41 W 12 5036 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 40 40 W 12 5036 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 41 41 NW 13 5036 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 41 41 NW 14 5036 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 40 40 W 15 5036 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 40 40 W 16 5036 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 40 40 W 16 5036 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 40 40 W 16 5036 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 42 42 W 12 5036 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 45 45 W 12 5036 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 49 50 W 12 5036 5900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 52 56 W 16 6801 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 55 60 W 16 8458 7517 1617 Blue 3
1 PM Thu 56 61 W 16 8759 7823 1923 Blue 4
2 PM Thu 57 62 W 16 9059 8126 2226 Blue 5
3 PM Thu 57 61 W 16 8759 7823 1923 Blue 4
4 PM Thu 57 59 W 16 8154 6750 850 Blue 2
5 PM Thu 55 56 W 17 6801 5900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 54 54 W 17 5036 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 50 50 W 17 5036 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 48 48 W 14 5036 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 47 47 W 14 5036 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 45 45 W 14 5036 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 44 44 W 14 5036 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 44 44 W 14 5036 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 43 43 W 14 5036 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 44 44 NW 16 5036 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 44 44 NW 16 5036 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 43 43 NW 16 5036 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 43 43 NW 12 5036 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 43 43 NW 12 5036 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 43 43 NW 12 5036 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 45 45 NW 8 5036 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 48 49 NW 8 5036 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 53 56 NW 8 6801 5900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 57 61 N 8 8759 7823 1923 Blue 4
12 Noon Fri 59 64 N 8 9651 8726 2826 Blue 7
1 PM Fri 61 66 N 8 12272 9317 3417 Blue 9
2 PM Fri 62 67 W 10 12487 9610 3710 Blue 10
3 PM Fri 62 66 W 10 12272 9317 3417 Blue 9
4 PM Fri 62 64 W 10 9651 8726 2826 Blue 7
5 PM Fri 59 60 W 12 8458 7517 1617 Blue 3
6 PM Fri 56 56 W 12 6801 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 50 50 W 12 5036 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 47 47 NW 8 5036 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 45 45 NW 8 5036 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 43 43 NW 8 5036 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 41 41 NE 12 5036 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 40 40 NE 12 5036 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 40 40 NE 12 5036 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 40 40 NE 17 5036 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 40 40 NE 17 5036 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 39 39 NE 17 5036 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 39 39 N 17 5036 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 39 39 N 17 5036 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 39 39 N 17 5036 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 41 41 NE 15 5036 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 45 46 NE 15 5036 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 50 53 NE 15 5036 5900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 55 59 NE 16 8154 6750 850 Blue 2
12 Noon Sat 58 63 NE 16 9356 8427 2527 Blue 6
1 PM Sat 60 65 NE 16 11361 9023 3123 Blue 8
2 PM Sat 61 66 NE 16 12272 9317 3417 Blue 9
3 PM Sat 61 65 NE 16 11361 9023 3123 Blue 8
4 PM Sat 61 63 NE 16 9356 8427 2527 Blue 6
5 PM Sat 59 60 NE 14 8458 7517 1617 Blue 3
6 PM Sat 57 57 NE 14 7539 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 52 52 NE 14 5036 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 49 49 NE 16 5036 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 48 48 NE 16 5036 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 46 46 NE 16 5036 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 44 44 NE 15 5036 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 44 44 NE 15 5036 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 44 44 NE 15 5036 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 44 44 NE 21 5036 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 44 44 NE 21 5036 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 43 43 NE 21 5036 5900 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst