Detailed Predictions for: Thomas Mt
Launch Altitude (f): 5900
LZ Altitude (f): 4550
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

17 NOV 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Sat 43 43 NW 8 4954 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 42 42 NW 8 4954 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 42 42 NW 8 4954 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 44 44 NW 8 4954 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 49 49 NW 7 4954 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 54 55 NW 6 6235 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 58 60 W 6 8295 7126 1226 Blue 2
11 AM Sat 59 61 W 7 8523 7565 1665 Blue 3
12 Noon Sat 60 62 W 7 8750 8046 2146 Blue 4
1 PM Sat 61 63 W 10 9013 8273 2373 Blue 5
2 PM Sat 60 61 W 10 8523 7565 1665 Blue 3
3 PM Sat 60 60 W 12 8295 7126 1226 Blue 2
4 PM Sat 56 56 W 10 6698 5900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 52 52 W 9 4954 5900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 49 49 NW 10 4954 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 47 47 NW 9 4954 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 46 46 NW 8 4954 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 46 46 NW 7 4954 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 45 45 NW 6 4954 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 45 45 NW 6 4954 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 44 44 NW 6 4954 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 44 44 N 5 4954 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 44 44 N 2 4954 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 44 44 NE 5 4954 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 44 44 NE 8 4954 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 43 43 NE 9 4954 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 43 43 NE 10 4954 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 45 45 E 12 4954 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 49 49 E 12 4954 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 54 54 E 12 5762 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 57 58 E 12 7597 6221 321 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 59 61 E 12 8523 7565 1665 Blue 3
12 Noon Sun 59 61 E 12 8523 7565 1665 Blue 3
1 PM Sun 60 61 E 10 8523 7565 1665 Blue 3
2 PM Sun 59 60 E 10 8295 7126 1226 Blue 2
3 PM Sun 59 59 E 10 8067 6678 778 Blue 1
4 PM Sun 56 56 E 10 6698 5900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 52 52 E 12 4954 5900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 50 50 E 12 4954 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 48 48 E 14 4954 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 47 47 E 14 4954 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 47 47 E 14 4954 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 46 46 E 14 4954 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 46 46 E 13 4954 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 45 45 E 13 4954 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 45 45 E 13 4954 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 45 45 E 13 4954 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 45 45 E 13 4954 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 45 45 E 13 4954 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 44 44 E 13 4954 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 44 44 E 13 4954 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 46 46 E 13 4954 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 49 49 E 13 4954 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 54 55 E 13 6235 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 57 58 E 13 7597 6221 321 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 58 59 E 13 8067 6678 778 Blue 1
12 Noon Mon 58 59 E 13 8067 6678 778 Blue 1
1 PM Mon 59 60 E 13 8295 7126 1226 Blue 2
2 PM Mon 58 59 E 13 8067 6678 778 Blue 1
3 PM Mon 58 58 E 13 7597 6221 321 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 54 54 E 14 5762 5900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 50 50 E 14 4954 5900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 47 47 E 14 4954 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 44 44 E 13 4954 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 44 44 E 13 4954 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 43 43 E 13 4954 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 42 42 E 12 4954 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 42 42 E 12 4954 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 42 42 E 12 4954 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 42 42 E 9 4954 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 41 41 E 9 4954 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 41 41 E 9 4954 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 41 41 E 8 4954 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 40 40 E 8 4954 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 40 40 E 8 4954 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 42 42 E 7 4954 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 46 46 E 7 4954 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 51 51 E 7 4954 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 54 56 E 5 6698 5900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 56 58 E 5 7597 6221 321 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 56 58 E 5 7597 6221 321 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 57 59 NW 3 8067 6678 778 Blue 1
2 PM Tue 57 58 NW 3 7597 6221 321 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 56 56 NW 3 6698 5900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 52 52 NW 5 4954 5900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 49 49 NW 5 4954 5900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 46 46 NW 5 4954 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 44 44 NW 7 4954 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 43 43 NW 7 4954 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 43 43 NW 7 4954 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 42 42 N 5 4954 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 42 42 N 5 4954 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 41 41 N 5 4954 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 41 41 N 3 4954 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 41 41 N 3 4954 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 41 41 N 3 4954 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 41 41 N 2 4954 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 40 40 N 2 4954 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 40 40 N 2 4954 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 41 41 N 2 4954 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 45 45 N 2 4954 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 49 50 N 2 4954 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 52 53 E 3 5278 5900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 53 54 E 3 5762 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 54 55 E 3 6235 5900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 54 55 SW 3 6235 5900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 54 55 SW 3 6235 5900 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 53 53 SW 3 5278 5900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 51 51 W 5 4954 5900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 48 48 W 5 4954 5900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 46 46 W 5 4954 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 45 45 W 10 4954 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 44 44 W 10 4954 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 44 44 W 10 4954 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 44 44 W 12 4954 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 43 43 W 12 4954 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 43 43 W 12 4954 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 43 43 W 12 4954 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 43 43 W 12 4954 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 42 42 W 12 4954 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 42 42 NW 14 4954 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 42 42 NW 14 4954 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 42 42 NW 14 4954 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 43 43 NW 15 4954 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 47 47 NW 15 4954 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 50 50 NW 15 4954 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 53 54 W 14 5762 5900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 54 55 W 14 6235 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 55 56 W 14 6698 5900 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 55 56 W 13 6698 5900 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 55 55 W 13 6235 5900 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 54 54 W 13 5762 5900 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 50 50 NW 12 4954 5900 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 46 46 NW 12 4954 5900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 43 43 NW 12 4954 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 41 41 NW 13 4954 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 40 40 NW 13 4954 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 40 40 NW 13 4954 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 39 39 NW 13 4954 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 39 39 NW 13 4954 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 38 38 NW 13 4954 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 38 38 NW 14 4954 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 38 38 NW 14 4954 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 38 38 NW 14 4954 5900 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst