Detailed Predictions for: Thomas Mt
Launch Altitude (f): 5900
LZ Altitude (f): 4550
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

18 MAY 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 40 40 NW 7 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 41 41 NW 6 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 41 41 NW 5 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 44 45 W 2 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 51 54 W 3 6809 5900 0 Blue 4
10 AM Sat 56 61 W 5 8689 7293 1393 Blue 11
11 AM Sat 60 64 W 7 10358 8608 2708 Blue 14
12 Noon Sat 63 68 W 8 11622 10623 4723 Blue 18
1 PM Sat 64 69 W 9 11931 10937 5037 Blue 19
2 PM Sat 64 69 W 13 11931 10937 5037 Blue 19
3 PM Sat 63 67 W 14 11310 10305 4405 Blue 17
4 PM Sat 63 65 W 14 10678 9319 3419 Blue 15
5 PM Sat 59 60 W 15 7918 7187 1287 Blue 10
6 PM Sat 55 55 W 16 6982 5900 0 Blue 5
7 PM Sat 51 51 W 15 5516 5900 0 Blue 1
8 PM Sat 46 46 W 13 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 43 43 W 13 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 42 42 W 13 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 40 40 W 16 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 39 39 W 16 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 39 39 W 17 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 39 39 W 20 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 39 39 W 20 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 39 39 W 20 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 38 38 W 20 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 38 38 W 17 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 38 38 W 16 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 40 40 W 15 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 44 45 W 16 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 46 47 W 17 5020 5900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 49 52 W 20 5893 5900 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Sun 51 55 W 21 6982 5900 0 Blue 5
1 PM Sun 51 55 W 22 6982 5900 0 Blue 5
2 PM Sun 51 54 W 23 6809 5900 0 Blue 4
3 PM Sun 50 53 W 23 6356 5900 0 Blue 3
4 PM Sun 50 52 W 23 5893 5900 0 Blue 2
5 PM Sun 48 49 W 24 5249 5900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 46 46 W 24 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 43 43 W 24 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 41 41 W 23 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 39 39 W 23 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 38 38 W 23 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 37 37 W 22 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 37 37 W 22 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 36 36 W 22 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 37 37 W 21 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 36 36 W 21 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 36 36 W 21 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 36 36 W 21 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 36 36 W 20 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 36 36 W 18 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 39 39 W 18 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 44 45 W 18 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 48 50 W 18 5372 5900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 51 56 W 18 7087 6340 440 Blue 6
12 Noon Mon 54 59 W 18 7405 7081 1181 Blue 9
1 PM Mon 54 59 W 20 7405 7081 1181 Blue 9
2 PM Mon 54 59 W 20 7405 7081 1181 Blue 9
3 PM Mon 53 57 W 21 7193 6787 887 Blue 7
4 PM Mon 53 55 W 21 6982 5900 0 Blue 5
5 PM Mon 51 52 W 22 5893 5900 0 Blue 2
6 PM Mon 48 48 W 21 5135 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 45 45 W 21 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 42 42 W 20 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 40 40 W 18 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 39 39 W 17 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 38 38 W 16 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 38 38 W 15 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 38 38 W 16 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 38 38 W 17 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 37 37 W 18 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 38 38 W 22 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 37 37 W 23 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 37 37 W 23 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 37 37 W 23 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 40 40 W 30 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 43 44 W 30 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 46 48 W 30 5135 5900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 48 50 W 31 5372 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 51 54 W 31 6809 5900 0 Blue 4
1 PM Tue 51 54 W 31 6809 5900 0 Blue 4
2 PM Tue 51 53 W 36 6356 5900 0 Blue 3
3 PM Tue 51 53 W 36 6356 5900 0 Blue 3
4 PM Tue 50 51 W 36 5516 5900 0 Blue 1
5 PM Tue 49 49 W 35 5249 5900 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 47 47 W 35 5020 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 44 44 W 35 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 42 42 W 25 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 41 41 W 25 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 40 40 W 25 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 39 39 W 17 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 38 38 W 17 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 38 38 W 17 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 38 38 W 14 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 38 38 W 14 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 38 38 W 14 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 38 38 NW 15 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 38 38 NW 15 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 38 38 NW 15 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 41 41 W 14 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 45 46 W 14 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 48 50 W 14 5372 5900 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 51 55 W 13 6982 5900 0 Blue 5
12 Noon Wed 54 59 W 13 7405 7081 1181 Blue 9
1 PM Wed 54 59 W 13 7405 7081 1181 Blue 9
2 PM Wed 54 59 NW 12 7405 7081 1181 Blue 9
3 PM Wed 54 58 NW 12 7299 6976 1076 Blue 8
4 PM Wed 53 55 NW 12 6982 5900 0 Blue 5
5 PM Wed 51 52 W 12 5893 5900 0 Blue 2
6 PM Wed 49 49 W 12 5249 5900 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 46 46 W 12 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 43 43 NW 12 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 41 41 NW 12 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 40 40 NW 12 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 39 39 NW 13 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 39 39 NW 13 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 38 38 NW 13 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 39 39 N 8 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 38 38 N 8 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 38 38 N 8 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 38 38 NE 12 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 39 39 NE 12 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 39 39 NE 12 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 42 43 NE 14 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 49 51 NE 14 5516 5900 0 Blue 1
10 AM Thu 54 58 NE 14 7299 6976 1076 Blue 8
11 AM Thu 58 62 NE 9 9412 7398 1498 Blue 12
12 Noon Thu 62 67 NE 9 11310 10305 4405 Blue 17
1 PM Thu 63 68 NE 9 11622 10623 4723 Blue 18
2 PM Thu 63 68 NW 17 11622 10623 4723 Blue 18
3 PM Thu 63 67 NW 17 11310 10305 4405 Blue 17
4 PM Thu 62 64 NW 17 10358 8608 2708 Blue 14
5 PM Thu 58 59 W 14 7405 7081 1181 Blue 9
6 PM Thu 55 55 W 14 6982 5900 0 Blue 5
7 PM Thu 51 51 W 14 5516 5900 0 Blue 1
8 PM Thu 47 47 W 13 5020 5900 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 44 44 W 13 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 42 42 W 13 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 41 41 NW 14 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 40 40 NW 14 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 40 40 NW 14 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 40 40 NW 13 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 40 40 NW 13 5007 5900 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 40 40 NW 13 5007 5900 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst