Detailed Predictions for: Mentone
Launch Altitude (f): 3170
LZ Altitude (f): 1900
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

17 NOV 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Sat 49 47 N 1 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 49 47 NE 1 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 49 47 NE 1 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 51 49 E 1 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 54 52 SE 1 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 57 56 S 1 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 58 58 SW 3 2749 3170 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 60 60 SW 5 3172 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 61 61 SW 5 3511 3170 0 Blue 1
1 PM Sat 62 62 W 6 3758 3170 0 Blue 2
2 PM Sat 61 60 W 6 3172 3170 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 62 60 W 6 3172 3170 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 60 58 W 6 2749 3170 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 56 54 W 5 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 54 52 W 2 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 53 51 NW 1 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 52 50 W 0 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 51 49 SW 1 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 51 49 NE 1 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 50 48 N 1 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 50 48 NW 0 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 50 48 NE 0 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 50 48 E 0 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 50 48 E 2 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 49 47 E 2 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 49 47 E 2 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 49 47 E 2 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 51 49 NE 2 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 55 53 N 1 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 58 56 W 1 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 60 59 SW 3 2961 3170 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 62 62 SW 3 3758 3170 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Sun 64 64 SW 5 4347 3507 337 Blue 4
1 PM Sun 64 63 SW 5 4038 3170 0 Blue 3
2 PM Sun 64 63 SW 5 4038 3170 0 Blue 3
3 PM Sun 64 62 SW 5 3758 3170 0 Blue 2
4 PM Sun 63 61 SW 2 3511 3170 0 Blue 1
5 PM Sun 60 58 E 1 2749 3170 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 57 55 NW 3 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 56 54 N 5 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 55 53 NE 3 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 54 52 NE 2 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 54 52 NE 3 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 53 51 NE 3 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 53 51 NE 3 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 53 51 NE 5 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 53 51 NE 5 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 53 51 NE 5 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 52 50 NE 6 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 52 50 NE 6 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 52 50 NE 6 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 54 52 E 5 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 57 55 E 5 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 59 58 E 5 2749 3170 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 60 59 W 5 2961 3170 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 62 61 W 5 3511 3170 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Mon 63 62 W 5 3758 3170 0 Blue 2
1 PM Mon 64 63 SW 3 4038 3170 0 Blue 3
2 PM Mon 63 62 SW 3 3758 3170 0 Blue 2
3 PM Mon 64 62 SW 3 3758 3170 0 Blue 2
4 PM Mon 62 60 SE 5 3172 3170 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 58 56 SE 5 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 56 54 SE 5 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 54 52 NW 5 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 53 51 NW 5 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 52 50 NW 5 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 52 50 N 3 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 51 49 N 3 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 51 49 N 3 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 51 49 N 2 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 51 49 N 2 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 51 49 N 2 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 50 48 NE 2 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 50 48 NE 2 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 50 48 NE 2 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 52 50 N 3 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 54 52 N 3 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 56 54 N 3 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 58 58 SW 3 2749 3170 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 59 59 SW 3 2961 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 60 60 SW 3 3172 3170 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 61 61 SW 6 3511 3170 0 Blue 1
2 PM Tue 61 60 SW 6 3172 3170 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 60 58 SW 6 2749 3170 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 59 57 W 6 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 56 54 W 6 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 54 52 W 6 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 52 50 NE 1 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 52 50 NE 1 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 51 49 NE 1 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 50 48 SE 1 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 50 48 SE 1 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 50 48 SE 1 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 50 48 E 2 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 50 48 E 2 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 50 48 E 2 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 49 47 E 3 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 49 47 E 3 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 49 47 E 3 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 50 48 E 5 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 52 50 E 5 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 54 53 E 5 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 55 54 SW 3 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 56 55 SW 3 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 57 56 SW 3 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 58 57 SW 5 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 58 56 SW 5 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 58 56 SW 5 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 57 55 W 3 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 55 53 W 3 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 54 52 W 3 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 53 51 W 6 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 53 51 W 6 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 52 50 W 6 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 52 50 NW 1 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 52 50 NW 1 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 52 50 NW 1 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 52 50 NE 2 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 52 50 NE 2 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 51 49 NE 2 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 51 49 NE 3 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 51 49 NE 3 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 51 49 NE 3 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 52 50 N 3 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 54 52 N 3 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 55 53 N 3 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 56 54 SW 6 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 57 56 SW 6 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 57 56 SW 6 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 58 57 W 7 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 58 56 W 7 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 58 56 W 7 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 56 54 W 5 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 53 51 W 5 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 52 50 W 5 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 50 48 NW 2 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 49 47 NW 2 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 49 47 NW 2 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 48 46 NE 2 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 48 46 NE 2 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 48 46 NE 2 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 48 46 N 2 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 48 46 N 2 2736 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 48 46 N 2 2736 3170 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst