Detailed Predictions for: Mentone
Launch Altitude (f): 3170
LZ Altitude (f): 1900
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Wed 44 42 SE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Wed 45 43 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Wed 44 42 SE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Wed 44 42 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Wed 46 44 E 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Wed 49 47 E 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Wed 50 48 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Wed 50 48 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Wed 52 50 SE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Wed 52 50 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Wed 53 51 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Wed 52 50 SE 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Wed 52 50 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Wed 50 48 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Wed 50 48 SE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Wed 49 47 SE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Wed 49 47 SE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Wed 49 47 SE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Wed 49 47 SE 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Wed 49 47 SE 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Thu 49 47 S 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Thu 48 46 S 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Thu 48 46 S 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Thu 48 46 S 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Thu 48 46 S 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Thu 48 46 S 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 48 46 S 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 48 46 S 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 49 47 S 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 50 48 S 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 50 48 S 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 50 48 S 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 51 49 SE 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 50 48 S 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 50 48 S 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 50 48 S 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 49 47 S 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 46 44 S 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 45 43 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 45 43 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 44 42 SW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 44 42 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 43 41 S 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 44 42 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 43 41 SW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 42 40 W 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 43 41 W 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 42 40 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 42 40 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 43 41 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 42 40 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 42 40 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 45 43 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 49 47 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 51 50 E 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 51 51 NE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 53 53 NE 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 54 53 NE 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 54 53 NE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 54 52 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 53 51 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 50 48 E 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 48 46 E 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 48 46 E 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 48 46 E 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 47 45 NE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 46 44 NE 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 47 45 NE 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 46 44 E 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 45 43 E 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 46 44 NE 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 46 44 NE 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 45 43 NE 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 46 44 NE 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 45 43 NE 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 45 43 NE 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 48 46 NE 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 53 52 NE 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 56 55 E 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 57 57 E 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 59 59 E 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 61 61 NE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 60 59 NE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 60 58 NE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 58 56 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 54 52 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 52 50 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 52 50 NE 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 51 49 NE 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 50 48 NE 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 50 48 E 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 50 48 E 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 50 48 E 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 48 46 E 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 49 47 E 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 49 47 E 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 48 46 E 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 49 47 E 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 48 46 E 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 48 46 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 51 49 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 56 55 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 58 57 SW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 59 58 SW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 61 61 SW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 63 62 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 62 61 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 61 59 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 60 58 W 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 54 52 W 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 51 49 W 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 51 49 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 50 48 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 49 47 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 48 46 N 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 49 47 N 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 48 46 N 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 47 45 N 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 47 45 N 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 47 45 N 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 46 44 NE 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 47 45 NE 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 46 44 NE 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 46 44 NE 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 48 46 NE 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 52 50 NE 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 54 53 E 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 54 54 E 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 56 56 E 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 57 57 E 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 56 55 E 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 56 54 E 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 54 52 NE 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 50 48 NE 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 48 46 NE 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 48 46 NE 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 47 45 NE 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 46 44 NE 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 46 44 NE 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 46 44 NE 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 46 44 NE 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 44 42 NE 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 45 43 NE 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 45 43 NE 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst