Detailed Predictions for: Mentone
Launch Altitude (f): 3170
LZ Altitude (f): 1900
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

22 APR 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 60 58 N 6 2680 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 61 59 N 5 2680 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 63 61 W 2 2680 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 66 65 SW 1 2680 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 68 68 SW 2 2680 3170 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 71 73 SW 3 5664 3200 30 Blue 1
11 AM Sun 74 77 SW 5 8618 6066 2896 Blue 5
12 Noon Sun 76 80 SW 7 11740 8350 5180 Blue 8
1 PM Sun 79 83 W 8 12056 11715 8545 Blue 11
2 PM Sun 81 84 W 10 12211 11800 8630 Blue 12
3 PM Sun 80 82 W 10 11912 11550 8380 Blue 10
4 PM Sun 80 81 W 12 11826 9674 6504 Blue 9
5 PM Sun 77 76 W 12 7358 5625 2455 Blue 4
6 PM Sun 74 72 W 10 5114 3170 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 70 68 W 8 2680 3170 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 66 64 NW 1 2680 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 64 62 NW 1 2680 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 62 60 E 1 2680 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 61 59 E 1 2680 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 61 59 NE 1 2680 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 61 59 NE 1 2680 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 60 58 NE 1 2680 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 59 57 N 1 2680 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 58 56 N 1 2680 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 58 56 N 1 2680 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 59 57 N 2 2680 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 61 59 N 1 2680 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 64 63 SW 1 2680 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 66 66 SW 2 2680 3170 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 69 71 SW 2 4201 3170 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 71 75 SW 6 6513 5050 1880 Blue 3
12 Noon Mon 74 79 SW 6 11609 7245 4075 Blue 7
1 PM Mon 76 81 W 7 11826 9674 6504 Blue 9
2 PM Mon 77 81 W 8 11826 9674 6504 Blue 9
3 PM Mon 77 80 W 9 11740 8350 5180 Blue 8
4 PM Mon 78 79 W 10 11609 7245 4075 Blue 7
5 PM Mon 76 75 W 9 6513 5050 1880 Blue 3
6 PM Mon 73 71 W 8 4201 3170 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 70 68 W 6 2680 3170 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 66 64 W 3 2680 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 64 62 NW 2 2680 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 63 61 NW 1 2680 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 62 60 N 1 2680 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 62 60 NW 1 2680 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 61 59 NW 0 2680 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 61 59 NW 1 2680 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 60 58 NW 1 2680 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 58 56 N 1 2680 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 58 56 N 0 2680 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 59 57 SE 0 2680 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 60 58 SE 1 2680 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 63 62 S 2 2680 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 66 66 SW 2 2680 3170 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 70 72 SW 3 5114 3170 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 73 76 SW 6 7358 5625 2455 Blue 4
12 Noon Tue 75 78 SW 7 9942 6414 3244 Blue 6
1 PM Tue 77 80 W 8 11740 8350 5180 Blue 8
2 PM Tue 79 82 W 10 11912 11550 8380 Blue 10
3 PM Tue 78 80 W 10 11740 8350 5180 Blue 8
4 PM Tue 78 78 W 10 9942 6414 3244 Blue 6
5 PM Tue 76 75 W 10 6513 5050 1880 Blue 3
6 PM Tue 73 71 W 8 4201 3170 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 69 67 W 6 2680 3170 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 65 63 W 3 2680 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 62 60 W 3 2680 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 60 58 W 3 2680 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 59 57 W 1 2680 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 59 57 W 1 2680 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 58 56 W 1 2680 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 58 56 NW 1 2680 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 57 55 NW 1 2680 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 56 54 NW 1 2680 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 56 54 W 1 2680 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 57 55 W 1 2680 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 59 57 W 1 2680 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 62 61 W 5 2680 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 64 64 W 5 2680 3170 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 67 68 W 5 2680 3170 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 70 73 W 7 5664 3200 30 Blue 1
12 Noon Wed 72 76 W 7 7358 5625 2455 Blue 4
1 PM Wed 74 78 W 7 9942 6414 3244 Blue 6
2 PM Wed 75 79 W 10 11609 7245 4075 Blue 7
3 PM Wed 76 78 W 10 9942 6414 3244 Blue 6
4 PM Wed 76 77 W 10 8618 6066 2896 Blue 5
5 PM Wed 75 74 W 10 6098 4164 994 Blue 2
6 PM Wed 72 70 W 10 3209 3170 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 68 66 W 10 2680 3170 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 64 62 W 7 2680 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 62 60 W 7 2680 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 60 58 W 7 2680 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 59 57 W 2 2680 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 58 56 W 2 2680 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 57 55 W 2 2680 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 56 54 NW 0 2680 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 55 53 NW 0 2680 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 54 52 NW 0 2680 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 54 52 NW 1 2680 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 55 53 NW 1 2680 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 57 55 NW 1 2680 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 60 59 W 5 2680 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 63 63 W 5 2680 3170 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 66 68 W 5 2680 3170 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 69 72 SW 8 5114 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 72 76 SW 8 7358 5625 2455 Blue 4
1 PM Thu 74 78 SW 8 9942 6414 3244 Blue 6
2 PM Thu 75 79 W 10 11609 7245 4075 Blue 7
3 PM Thu 76 78 W 10 9942 6414 3244 Blue 6
4 PM Thu 76 77 W 10 8618 6066 2896 Blue 5
5 PM Thu 74 73 W 10 5664 3200 30 Blue 1
6 PM Thu 71 69 W 10 2680 3170 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 67 65 W 10 2680 3170 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 64 62 W 6 2680 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 61 59 W 6 2680 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 60 58 W 6 2680 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 58 56 W 1 2680 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 58 56 W 1 2680 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 56 54 W 1 2680 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 56 54 S 0 2680 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 54 52 S 0 2680 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 53 51 S 0 2680 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 53 51 E 1 2680 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 54 52 E 1 2680 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 56 54 E 1 2680 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 58 57 S 3 2680 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 61 61 S 3 2680 3170 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 64 66 S 3 2680 3170 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 68 72 W 6 5114 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 71 76 W 6 7358 5625 2455 Blue 4
1 PM Fri 73 78 W 6 9942 6414 3244 Blue 6
2 PM Fri 74 78 W 9 9942 6414 3244 Blue 6
3 PM Fri 74 77 W 9 8618 6066 2896 Blue 5
4 PM Fri 73 74 W 9 6098 4164 994 Blue 2
5 PM Fri 72 71 SW 9 4201 3170 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 70 68 SW 9 2680 3170 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 67 65 SW 9 2680 3170 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 64 62 W 6 2680 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 62 60 W 6 2680 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 60 58 W 6 2680 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 58 56 W 1 2680 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 58 56 W 1 2680 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 57 55 W 1 2680 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 57 55 SW 0 2680 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 56 54 SW 0 2680 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 55 53 SW 0 2680 3170 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst