Detailed Predictions for: Mentone
Launch Altitude (f): 3170
LZ Altitude (f): 1900
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

25 MAR 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Mon 48 46 NE 3 2785 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 49 47 NE 3 2785 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 49 47 NE 3 2785 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 50 48 NE 2 2785 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 54 53 NE 1 2785 3170 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 57 58 NE 0 2879 3170 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 60 63 SW 3 3594 3170 0 Blue 4
12 Noon Mon 63 67 SW 3 4695 3771 601 Blue 8
1 PM Mon 65 69 SW 5 6657 4472 1302 Blue 10
2 PM Mon 66 69 SW 6 6657 4472 1302 Blue 10
3 PM Mon 67 69 W 6 6657 4472 1302 Blue 10
4 PM Mon 66 66 W 7 4483 3590 420 Blue 7
5 PM Mon 66 65 W 8 4099 3408 238 Blue 6
6 PM Mon 62 60 W 8 3152 3170 0 Blue 1
7 PM Mon 58 56 W 6 2785 3170 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 56 54 N 2 2785 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 55 53 N 1 2785 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 54 52 E 1 2785 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 52 50 E 1 2785 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 52 50 E 1 2785 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 51 49 E 1 2785 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 51 49 E 1 2785 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 51 49 E 1 2785 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 50 48 E 1 2785 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 49 47 E 1 2785 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 50 48 E 1 2785 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 50 48 E 1 2785 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 51 49 E 1 2785 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 54 53 SE 1 2785 3170 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 56 56 SW 2 2785 3170 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 59 60 SW 3 3152 3170 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Tue 61 62 SW 5 3411 3170 0 Blue 3
1 PM Tue 63 64 W 6 3776 3256 86 Blue 5
2 PM Tue 65 66 W 7 4483 3590 420 Blue 7
3 PM Tue 65 65 W 7 4099 3408 238 Blue 6
4 PM Tue 64 63 W 8 3594 3170 0 Blue 4
5 PM Tue 64 62 W 8 3411 3170 0 Blue 3
6 PM Tue 60 58 W 7 2879 3170 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 56 54 W 5 2785 3170 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 54 52 W 3 2785 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 52 50 W 2 2785 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 51 49 W 1 2785 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 49 47 W 1 2785 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 49 47 NW 1 2785 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 48 46 NW 1 2785 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 48 46 N 1 2785 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 48 46 N 1 2785 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 48 46 NE 1 2785 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 46 44 NE 0 2785 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 47 45 E 1 2785 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 47 45 SE 1 2785 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 47 45 S 1 2785 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 50 48 S 1 2785 3170 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 51 50 W 1 2785 3170 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 53 53 W 2 2785 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 54 55 W 3 2785 3170 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 56 57 W 7 2785 3170 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 57 58 W 9 2879 3170 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 57 57 W 10 2785 3170 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 56 55 W 10 2785 3170 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 56 54 W 10 2785 3170 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 53 51 W 10 2785 3170 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 50 48 W 10 2785 3170 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 48 46 W 9 2785 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 47 45 W 7 2785 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 46 44 W 6 2785 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 45 43 W 3 2785 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 45 43 SW 2 2785 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 45 43 SE 2 2785 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 44 42 SE 2 2785 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 44 42 SE 2 2785 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 44 42 E 2 2785 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 43 41 E 3 2785 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 44 42 E 3 2785 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 44 42 E 3 2785 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 45 43 W 2 2785 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 48 46 W 2 2785 3170 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 50 49 W 2 2785 3170 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 53 55 SW 6 2785 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 55 58 SW 6 2879 3170 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 56 59 SW 6 3046 3170 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 58 61 W 8 3257 3170 0 Blue 2
3 PM Thu 58 60 W 8 3152 3170 0 Blue 1
4 PM Thu 58 58 W 8 2879 3170 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 57 56 W 10 2785 3170 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 55 53 W 10 2785 3170 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 52 50 W 10 2785 3170 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 50 48 NW 3 2785 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 49 47 NW 3 2785 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 48 46 NW 3 2785 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 47 45 N 12 2785 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 47 45 N 12 2785 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 47 45 N 12 2785 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 46 44 N 14 2785 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 46 44 N 14 2785 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 46 44 N 14 2785 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 45 43 N 12 2785 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 46 44 N 12 2785 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 46 44 N 12 2785 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 47 45 NE 5 2785 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 51 50 NE 5 2785 3170 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 53 54 NE 5 2785 3170 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 57 59 S 3 3046 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 59 62 S 3 3411 3170 0 Blue 3
1 PM Fri 61 64 S 3 3776 3256 86 Blue 5
2 PM Fri 63 66 W 5 4483 3590 420 Blue 7
3 PM Fri 63 65 W 5 4099 3408 238 Blue 6
4 PM Fri 63 63 W 5 3594 3170 0 Blue 4
5 PM Fri 62 61 N 8 3257 3170 0 Blue 2
6 PM Fri 58 56 N 8 2785 3170 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 54 52 N 8 2785 3170 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 51 49 NE 6 2785 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 49 47 NE 6 2785 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 48 46 NE 6 2785 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 46 44 NE 7 2785 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 46 44 NE 7 2785 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 45 43 NE 7 2785 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 45 43 NE 12 2785 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 45 43 NE 12 2785 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 45 43 NE 12 2785 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 43 41 NE 13 2785 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 45 43 NE 13 2785 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 44 42 NE 13 2785 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 46 44 NE 14 2785 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 50 49 NE 14 2785 3170 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 53 54 NE 14 2785 3170 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 57 59 NE 14 3046 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 59 62 NE 14 3411 3170 0 Blue 3
1 PM Sat 62 65 NE 14 4099 3408 238 Blue 6
2 PM Sat 64 67 NE 12 4695 3771 601 Blue 8
3 PM Sat 64 66 NE 12 4483 3590 420 Blue 7
4 PM Sat 64 64 NE 12 3776 3256 86 Blue 5
5 PM Sat 63 62 NE 10 3411 3170 0 Blue 3
6 PM Sat 59 57 NE 10 2785 3170 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 55 53 NE 10 2785 3170 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 52 50 NE 9 2785 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 51 49 NE 9 2785 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 50 48 NE 9 2785 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 48 46 NE 13 2785 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 48 46 NE 13 2785 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 47 45 NE 13 2785 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 47 45 NE 14 2785 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 47 45 NE 14 2785 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 47 45 NE 14 2785 3170 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst