Detailed Predictions for: Mentone
Launch Altitude (f): 3170
LZ Altitude (f): 1900
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

17 MAY 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Fri 44 42 N 7 2753 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 45 43 N 8 2753 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 47 45 N 8 2753 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 48 46 W 6 3274 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 50 49 W 6 4336 3265 95 White 3
10 AM Fri 51 51 W 6 4783 4617 1447 White 5
11 AM Fri 52 55 SW 6 5662 5196 2026 White 9
12 Noon Fri 55 58 SW 7 6313 5670 2500 White 12
1 PM Fri 57 60 W 7 6746 6262 3092 White 14
2 PM Fri 59 63 W 8 7389 7078 3908 White 17
3 PM Fri 59 62 W 8 7174 6810 3640 White 16
4 PM Fri 59 60 W 12 6746 6262 3092 White 14
5 PM Fri 59 58 W 12 6313 5670 2500 White 12
6 PM Fri 58 56 W 12 5879 5332 2162 White 10
7 PM Fri 56 54 W 9 5443 5019 1849 White 8
8 PM Fri 54 52 W 6 5009 4805 1635 White 6
9 PM Fri 52 50 W 3 4555 3985 815 White 4
10 PM Fri 51 49 W 2 4336 3265 95 White 3
11 PM Fri 50 48 NE 1 4115 3170 0 White 2
12 Midnight Sat 49 47 NE 2 3896 3170 0 White 1
1 AM Sat 48 46 E 1 3274 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 47 45 SE 1 2753 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 46 44 SE 1 2753 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 46 44 SE 2 2753 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 46 44 SE 2 2753 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 47 45 SE 2 2753 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 48 46 S 2 3274 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 50 49 S 2 4336 3265 95 White 3
9 AM Sat 53 54 SW 3 5443 5019 1849 White 8
10 AM Sat 56 59 SW 5 6530 5985 2815 White 13
11 AM Sat 59 61 SW 6 6960 6538 3368 White 15
12 Noon Sat 61 64 SW 6 7603 7344 4174 White 18
1 PM Sat 63 66 W 7 8029 7873 4703 White 20
2 PM Sat 64 67 W 7 8241 8117 4947 White 21
3 PM Sat 64 66 W 9 8029 7873 4703 White 20
4 PM Sat 65 65 W 12 7816 7609 4439 White 19
5 PM Sat 64 62 W 12 7174 6810 3640 White 16
6 PM Sat 62 60 W 12 6746 6262 3092 White 14
7 PM Sat 60 58 W 10 6313 5670 2500 White 12
8 PM Sat 57 55 W 9 5662 5196 2026 White 9
9 PM Sat 55 53 W 7 5226 4917 1747 White 7
10 PM Sat 54 52 W 6 5009 4805 1635 White 6
11 PM Sat 52 50 W 5 4555 3985 815 White 4
12 Midnight Sun 51 49 W 3 4336 3265 95 White 3
1 AM Sun 50 48 SW 3 4115 3170 0 White 2
2 AM Sun 49 47 SW 5 3896 3170 0 White 1
3 AM Sun 49 47 SW 5 3896 3170 0 White 1
4 AM Sun 48 46 SW 5 3274 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 48 46 SW 5 3274 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 47 45 SW 5 2753 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 47 45 SW 5 2753 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 47 45 SW 5 2753 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 48 46 SW 6 3274 3170 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 50 48 SW 7 4115 3170 0 White 2
11 AM Sun 51 51 SW 7 4783 4617 1447 White 5
12 Noon Sun 52 53 SW 8 5226 4917 1747 White 7
1 PM Sun 53 54 SW 9 5443 5019 1849 White 8
2 PM Sun 54 55 SW 10 5662 5196 2026 White 9
3 PM Sun 53 53 SW 13 5226 4917 1747 White 7
4 PM Sun 53 52 SW 14 5009 4805 1635 White 6
5 PM Sun 53 51 SW 14 4783 4617 1447 White 5
6 PM Sun 52 50 SW 14 4555 3985 815 White 4
7 PM Sun 50 48 SW 13 4115 3170 0 White 2
8 PM Sun 48 46 SW 12 3274 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 47 45 SW 9 2753 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 46 44 SW 6 2753 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 46 44 SW 3 2753 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 46 44 W 2 2753 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 45 43 NW 3 2753 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 45 43 NW 5 2753 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 44 42 N 6 2753 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 43 41 N 7 2753 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 43 41 N 8 2753 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 44 42 N 8 2753 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 45 43 N 8 2753 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 47 46 W 6 3274 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 48 48 W 6 4115 3170 0 White 2
10 AM Mon 50 51 W 6 4783 4617 1447 White 5
11 AM Mon 52 54 W 7 5443 5019 1849 White 8
12 Noon Mon 54 57 W 7 6097 5458 2288 White 11
1 PM Mon 56 59 W 7 6530 5985 2815 White 13
2 PM Mon 58 61 W 10 6960 6538 3368 White 15
3 PM Mon 59 61 W 10 6960 6538 3368 White 15
4 PM Mon 59 59 W 10 6530 5985 2815 White 13
5 PM Mon 58 57 W 15 6097 5458 2288 White 11
6 PM Mon 57 55 W 15 5662 5196 2026 White 9
7 PM Mon 55 53 W 15 5226 4917 1747 White 7
8 PM Mon 53 51 SW 8 4783 4617 1447 White 5
9 PM Mon 51 49 SW 8 4336 3265 95 White 3
10 PM Mon 49 47 SW 8 3896 3170 0 White 1
11 PM Mon 48 46 S 8 3274 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 47 45 S 8 2753 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 47 45 S 8 2753 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 46 44 S 7 2753 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 46 44 S 7 2753 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 46 44 S 7 2753 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 45 43 S 7 2753 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 45 43 S 7 2753 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 45 43 S 7 2753 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 46 44 S 6 2753 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 47 45 S 6 2753 3170 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 49 48 S 6 4115 3170 0 White 2
11 AM Tue 52 51 W 7 4783 4617 1447 White 5
12 Noon Tue 54 53 W 7 5226 4917 1747 White 7
1 PM Tue 55 55 W 7 5662 5196 2026 White 9
2 PM Tue 55 54 W 15 5443 5019 1849 White 8
3 PM Tue 54 53 W 15 5226 4917 1747 White 7
4 PM Tue 52 51 W 15 4783 4617 1447 White 5
5 PM Tue 51 49 SW 16 4336 3265 95 White 3
6 PM Tue 50 48 SW 16 4115 3170 0 White 2
7 PM Tue 50 48 SW 16 4115 3170 0 White 2
8 PM Tue 49 47 W 12 3896 3170 0 White 1
9 PM Tue 49 47 W 12 3896 3170 0 White 1
10 PM Tue 48 46 W 12 3274 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 47 45 SE 3 2753 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 46 44 SE 3 2753 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 46 44 SE 3 2753 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 45 43 E 3 2753 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 45 43 E 3 2753 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 45 43 E 3 2753 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 45 43 NE 2 2753 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 46 44 NE 2 2753 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 47 45 NE 2 2753 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 48 46 S 6 3274 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 50 49 S 6 4336 3265 95 White 3
10 AM Wed 52 52 S 6 5009 4805 1635 White 6
11 AM Wed 54 56 SW 6 5879 5332 2162 White 10
12 Noon Wed 56 58 SW 6 6313 5670 2500 White 12
1 PM Wed 58 60 SW 6 6746 6262 3092 White 14
2 PM Wed 59 61 W 9 6960 6538 3368 White 15
3 PM Wed 60 61 W 9 6960 6538 3368 White 15
4 PM Wed 60 60 W 9 6746 6262 3092 White 14
5 PM Wed 59 58 SW 9 6313 5670 2500 White 12
6 PM Wed 57 55 SW 9 5662 5196 2026 White 9
7 PM Wed 55 53 SW 9 5226 4917 1747 White 7
8 PM Wed 53 51 S 7 4783 4617 1447 White 5
9 PM Wed 51 49 S 7 4336 3265 95 White 3
10 PM Wed 50 48 S 7 4115 3170 0 White 2
11 PM Wed 49 47 SW 2 3896 3170 0 White 1
12 Midnight Thu 48 46 SW 2 3274 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 48 46 SW 2 3274 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 47 45 S 2 2753 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 46 44 S 2 2753 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 46 44 S 2 2753 3170 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst