Detailed Predictions for: Mentone
Launch Altitude (f): 3170
LZ Altitude (f): 1900
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

21 JUL 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 64 62 E 1 2907 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 64 62 E 2 2907 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 66 64 SE 1 2907 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 68 67 S 2 2907 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 71 72 SW 2 2907 3170 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 75 78 SW 3 4045 3564 394 Blue 5
11 AM Sun 80 84 SW 5 4841 4437 1267 Blue 11
12 Noon Sun 85 90 SW 6 5632 5228 2058 Blue 17
1 PM Sun 88 94 W 6 6676 5846 2676 Blue 21
2 PM Sun 91 96 W 7 7206 6380 3210 Blue 23
3 PM Sun 91 95 W 7 6942 6114 2944 Blue 22
4 PM Sun 92 94 W 8 6676 5846 2676 Blue 21
5 PM Sun 91 91 W 8 5871 5359 2189 Blue 18
6 PM Sun 90 89 W 8 5500 5097 1927 Blue 16
7 PM Sun 86 84 W 8 4841 4437 1267 Blue 11
8 PM Sun 82 80 W 6 4310 3908 738 Blue 7
9 PM Sun 79 77 W 2 3912 3301 131 Blue 4
10 PM Sun 76 74 W 1 3304 3170 0 Blue 1
11 PM Sun 74 72 NW 1 2907 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 72 70 NW 1 2907 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 70 68 NW 0 2907 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 69 67 N 1 2907 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 68 66 NE 1 2907 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 68 66 NE 1 2907 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 68 66 E 1 2907 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 68 66 E 1 2907 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 70 68 S 1 2907 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 71 70 SW 1 2907 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 74 74 SW 2 3304 3170 0 Blue 1
10 AM Mon 77 78 SW 3 4045 3564 394 Blue 5
11 AM Mon 82 84 SW 5 4841 4437 1267 Blue 11
12 Noon Mon 86 88 SW 6 5369 4965 1795 Blue 15
1 PM Mon 88 91 W 6 5871 5359 2189 Blue 18
2 PM Mon 91 93 W 7 6409 5621 2451 Blue 20
3 PM Mon 91 93 W 7 6409 5621 2451 Blue 20
4 PM Mon 92 92 W 8 6141 5490 2320 Blue 19
5 PM Mon 91 91 W 8 5871 5359 2189 Blue 18
6 PM Mon 90 88 W 8 5369 4965 1795 Blue 15
7 PM Mon 87 85 W 7 4974 4569 1399 Blue 12
8 PM Mon 83 81 W 6 4443 4040 870 Blue 8
9 PM Mon 80 78 NW 3 4045 3564 394 Blue 5
10 PM Mon 78 76 NW 1 3779 3170 0 Blue 3
11 PM Mon 76 74 N 0 3304 3170 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Tue 75 73 N 0 3033 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 73 71 N 0 2907 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 72 70 N 1 2907 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 71 69 N 1 2907 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 71 69 NE 1 2907 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 71 69 E 1 2907 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 71 69 SE 1 2907 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 73 71 S 1 2907 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 74 72 SW 1 2907 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 76 76 SW 2 3779 3170 0 Blue 3
10 AM Tue 80 81 SW 3 4443 4040 870 Blue 8
11 AM Tue 84 85 SW 5 4974 4569 1399 Blue 12
12 Noon Tue 87 89 W 6 5500 5097 1927 Blue 16
1 PM Tue 90 92 W 7 6141 5490 2320 Blue 19
2 PM Tue 92 94 W 7 6676 5846 2676 Blue 21
3 PM Tue 92 93 W 8 6409 5621 2451 Blue 20
4 PM Tue 93 93 W 8 6409 5621 2451 Blue 20
5 PM Tue 92 91 W 8 5871 5359 2189 Blue 18
6 PM Tue 91 89 W 7 5500 5097 1927 Blue 16
7 PM Tue 88 86 W 6 5105 4701 1531 Blue 13
8 PM Tue 84 82 W 5 4576 4172 1002 Blue 9
9 PM Tue 81 79 W 2 4178 3776 606 Blue 6
10 PM Tue 79 77 W 1 3912 3301 131 Blue 4
11 PM Tue 77 75 W 0 3569 3170 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Wed 76 74 NW 0 3304 3170 0 Blue 1
1 AM Wed 74 72 NE 0 2907 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 73 71 E 1 2907 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 72 70 E 1 2907 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 72 70 E 2 2907 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 72 70 E 2 2907 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 72 70 E 2 2907 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 74 72 E 2 2907 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 75 74 W 1 3304 3170 0 Blue 1
9 AM Wed 77 77 W 1 3912 3301 131 Blue 4
10 AM Wed 80 81 W 1 4443 4040 870 Blue 8
11 AM Wed 84 86 SW 3 5105 4701 1531 Blue 13
12 Noon Wed 88 90 SW 3 5632 5228 2058 Blue 17
1 PM Wed 90 93 SW 3 6409 5621 2451 Blue 20
2 PM Wed 92 94 SE 8 6676 5846 2676 Blue 21
3 PM Wed 92 93 SE 8 6409 5621 2451 Blue 20
4 PM Wed 93 93 SE 8 6409 5621 2451 Blue 20
5 PM Wed 92 91 W 8 5871 5359 2189 Blue 18
6 PM Wed 91 89 W 8 5500 5097 1927 Blue 16
7 PM Wed 88 86 W 8 5105 4701 1531 Blue 13
8 PM Wed 84 82 W 6 4576 4172 1002 Blue 9
9 PM Wed 81 79 W 6 4178 3776 606 Blue 6
10 PM Wed 79 77 W 6 3912 3301 131 Blue 4
11 PM Wed 77 75 W 1 3569 3170 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Thu 76 74 W 1 3304 3170 0 Blue 1
1 AM Thu 74 72 W 1 2907 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 73 71 NW 1 2907 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 72 70 NW 1 2907 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 72 70 NW 1 2907 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 72 70 N 1 2907 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 72 70 N 1 2907 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 74 72 N 1 2907 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 75 74 SW 1 3304 3170 0 Blue 1
9 AM Thu 77 77 SW 1 3912 3301 131 Blue 4
10 AM Thu 80 81 SW 1 4443 4040 870 Blue 8
11 AM Thu 84 87 SW 5 5237 4833 1663 Blue 14
12 Noon Thu 88 93 SW 5 6409 5621 2451 Blue 20
1 PM Thu 90 95 SW 5 6942 6114 2944 Blue 22
2 PM Thu 92 96 W 8 7206 6380 3210 Blue 23
3 PM Thu 92 95 W 8 6942 6114 2944 Blue 22
4 PM Thu 93 95 W 8 6942 6114 2944 Blue 22
5 PM Thu 92 92 W 9 6141 5490 2320 Blue 19
6 PM Thu 91 90 W 9 5632 5228 2058 Blue 17
7 PM Thu 88 86 W 9 5105 4701 1531 Blue 13
8 PM Thu 83 81 W 6 4443 4040 870 Blue 8
9 PM Thu 80 78 W 6 4045 3564 394 Blue 5
10 PM Thu 77 75 W 6 3569 3170 0 Blue 2
11 PM Thu 75 73 W 1 3033 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 74 72 W 1 2907 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 72 70 W 1 2907 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 71 69 W 1 2907 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 70 68 W 1 2907 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 70 68 W 1 2907 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 70 68 W 1 2907 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 70 68 W 1 2907 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 72 70 W 1 2907 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 73 72 SW 2 2907 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 75 75 SW 2 3569 3170 0 Blue 2
10 AM Fri 79 81 SW 2 4443 4040 870 Blue 8
11 AM Fri 82 86 SW 6 5105 4701 1531 Blue 13
12 Noon Fri 86 91 SW 6 5871 5359 2189 Blue 18
1 PM Fri 88 94 SW 6 6676 5846 2676 Blue 21
2 PM Fri 91 96 W 8 7206 6380 3210 Blue 23
3 PM Fri 91 95 W 8 6942 6114 2944 Blue 22
4 PM Fri 92 94 W 8 6676 5846 2676 Blue 21
5 PM Fri 91 91 W 9 5871 5359 2189 Blue 18
6 PM Fri 90 89 W 9 5500 5097 1927 Blue 16
7 PM Fri 86 84 W 9 4841 4437 1267 Blue 11
8 PM Fri 82 80 W 6 4310 3908 738 Blue 7
9 PM Fri 79 77 W 6 3912 3301 131 Blue 4
10 PM Fri 76 74 W 6 3304 3170 0 Blue 1
11 PM Fri 74 72 W 1 2907 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 72 70 W 1 2907 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 70 68 W 1 2907 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 69 67 NW 1 2907 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 68 66 NW 1 2907 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 68 66 NW 1 2907 3170 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst