Detailed Predictions for: Mentone
Launch Altitude (f): 3170
LZ Altitude (f): 1900
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

21 JAN 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Sun 38 36 E 5 2739 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 37 35 E 3 2739 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 37 35 E 3 2739 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 38 36 E 3 2739 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 40 38 SE 3 2739 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 43 42 S 3 2739 3170 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 46 45 S 5 3759 3170 0 Blue 1
11 AM Sun 48 48 S 3 5250 3751 581 Blue 4
12 Noon Sun 50 50 S 5 5677 4656 1486 Blue 6
1 PM Sun 51 51 S 3 5805 5204 2034 Blue 7
2 PM Sun 52 51 SW 3 5805 5204 2034 Blue 7
3 PM Sun 52 50 SW 3 5677 4656 1486 Blue 6
4 PM Sun 53 51 SW 2 5805 5204 2034 Blue 7
5 PM Sun 50 48 W 2 5250 3751 581 Blue 4
6 PM Sun 47 45 N 1 3759 3170 0 Blue 1
7 PM Sun 44 42 E 2 2739 3170 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 42 40 E 2 2739 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 41 39 E 1 2739 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 40 38 E 2 2739 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 40 38 E 1 2739 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 40 38 E 2 2739 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 41 39 E 2 2739 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 41 39 E 2 2739 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 42 40 E 2 2739 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 42 40 E 1 2739 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 42 40 NE 1 2739 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 41 39 NE 1 2739 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 42 40 NE 1 2739 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 44 42 N 1 2739 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 47 45 NW 0 3759 3170 0 Blue 1
10 AM Mon 50 49 SW 3 5548 4062 892 Blue 5
11 AM Mon 52 52 W 3 5933 5537 2367 Blue 8
12 Noon Mon 54 54 SW 3 7390 5793 2623 Blue 10
1 PM Mon 56 56 SW 5 7807 6695 3525 Blue 12
2 PM Mon 57 56 SW 5 7807 6695 3525 Blue 12
3 PM Mon 57 55 SW 3 7599 5920 2750 Blue 11
4 PM Mon 58 56 SW 2 7807 6695 3525 Blue 12
5 PM Mon 56 54 W 1 7390 5793 2623 Blue 10
6 PM Mon 54 52 NE 1 5933 5537 2367 Blue 8
7 PM Mon 51 49 E 5 5548 4062 892 Blue 5
8 PM Mon 50 48 E 5 5250 3751 581 Blue 4
9 PM Mon 49 47 E 5 4765 3170 0 Blue 3
10 PM Mon 48 46 E 5 4073 3170 0 Blue 2
11 PM Mon 48 46 NE 5 4073 3170 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Tue 47 45 NE 6 3759 3170 0 Blue 1
1 AM Tue 47 45 NE 8 3759 3170 0 Blue 1
2 AM Tue 47 45 NE 7 3759 3170 0 Blue 1
3 AM Tue 48 46 NE 6 4073 3170 0 Blue 2
4 AM Tue 47 45 NE 6 3759 3170 0 Blue 1
5 AM Tue 47 45 NE 6 3759 3170 0 Blue 1
6 AM Tue 46 44 NE 7 2932 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 47 45 NE 6 3759 3170 0 Blue 1
8 AM Tue 49 47 NE 3 4765 3170 0 Blue 3
9 AM Tue 52 51 E 3 5805 5204 2034 Blue 7
10 AM Tue 56 56 S 3 7807 6695 3525 Blue 12
11 AM Tue 59 59 S 3 8289 7773 4603 Blue 15
12 Noon Tue 61 61 W 3 8990 8149 4979 Blue 17
1 PM Tue 62 62 W 5 9470 8267 5097 Blue 18
2 PM Tue 64 63 W 6 9938 8404 5234 Blue 19
3 PM Tue 63 62 W 6 9470 8267 5097 Blue 18
4 PM Tue 63 61 W 5 8990 8149 4979 Blue 17
5 PM Tue 61 59 W 2 8289 7773 4603 Blue 15
6 PM Tue 58 56 E 3 7807 6695 3525 Blue 12
7 PM Tue 55 53 NE 6 6849 5665 2495 Blue 9
8 PM Tue 53 51 NE 6 5805 5204 2034 Blue 7
9 PM Tue 52 50 E 5 5677 4656 1486 Blue 6
10 PM Tue 51 49 E 3 5548 4062 892 Blue 5
11 PM Tue 50 48 E 3 5250 3751 581 Blue 4
12 Midnight Wed 49 47 E 3 4765 3170 0 Blue 3
1 AM Wed 49 47 E 3 4765 3170 0 Blue 3
2 AM Wed 49 47 E 2 4765 3170 0 Blue 3
3 AM Wed 50 48 NE 2 5250 3751 581 Blue 4
4 AM Wed 50 48 N 5 5250 3751 581 Blue 4
5 AM Wed 50 48 N 5 5250 3751 581 Blue 4
6 AM Wed 49 47 N 5 4765 3170 0 Blue 3
7 AM Wed 50 48 NW 3 5250 3751 581 Blue 4
8 AM Wed 53 51 NW 3 5805 5204 2034 Blue 7
9 AM Wed 57 56 NW 3 7807 6695 3525 Blue 12
10 AM Wed 61 60 W 3 8497 7979 4809 Blue 16
11 AM Wed 63 63 W 3 9938 8404 5234 Blue 19
12 Noon Wed 65 65 W 3 10396 9366 6196 Blue 21
1 PM Wed 66 66 SW 5 10539 9829 6659 Blue 22
2 PM Wed 67 66 SW 5 10539 9829 6659 Blue 22
3 PM Wed 67 66 SW 5 10539 9829 6659 Blue 22
4 PM Wed 66 64 S 6 10253 8891 5721 Blue 20
5 PM Wed 63 61 S 6 8990 8149 4979 Blue 17
6 PM Wed 59 57 S 6 8014 7359 4189 Blue 13
7 PM Wed 56 54 SE 6 7390 5793 2623 Blue 10
8 PM Wed 54 52 SE 6 5933 5537 2367 Blue 8
9 PM Wed 53 51 SE 6 5805 5204 2034 Blue 7
10 PM Wed 52 50 E 5 5677 4656 1486 Blue 6
11 PM Wed 51 49 E 5 5548 4062 892 Blue 5
12 Midnight Thu 50 48 E 5 5250 3751 581 Blue 4
1 AM Thu 49 47 E 3 4765 3170 0 Blue 3
2 AM Thu 48 46 E 3 4073 3170 0 Blue 2
3 AM Thu 48 46 E 3 4073 3170 0 Blue 2
4 AM Thu 46 44 E 3 2932 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 45 43 E 3 2739 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 44 42 E 3 2739 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 44 42 S 3 2739 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 46 44 S 3 2932 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 50 48 S 3 5250 3751 581 Blue 4
10 AM Thu 52 51 SW 6 5805 5204 2034 Blue 7
11 AM Thu 53 52 SW 6 5933 5537 2367 Blue 8
12 Noon Thu 52 51 SW 6 5805 5204 2034 Blue 7
1 PM Thu 52 51 W 9 5805 5204 2034 Blue 7
2 PM Thu 53 52 W 9 5933 5537 2367 Blue 8
3 PM Thu 54 52 W 9 5933 5537 2367 Blue 8
4 PM Thu 54 52 NW 14 5933 5537 2367 Blue 8
5 PM Thu 51 49 NW 14 5548 4062 892 Blue 5
6 PM Thu 47 45 NW 14 3759 3170 0 Blue 1
7 PM Thu 44 42 NW 15 2739 3170 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 42 40 NW 15 2739 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 42 40 NW 15 2739 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 43 41 N 15 2739 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 42 40 N 15 2739 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 42 40 N 15 2739 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 42 40 N 14 2739 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 42 40 N 14 2739 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 43 41 N 14 2739 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 43 41 N 12 2739 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 43 41 N 12 2739 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 42 40 N 12 2739 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 43 41 N 9 2739 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 46 44 N 9 2932 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 50 49 N 9 5548 4062 892 Blue 5
10 AM Fri 53 52 N 7 5933 5537 2367 Blue 8
11 AM Fri 55 55 N 7 7599 5920 2750 Blue 11
12 Noon Fri 56 56 N 7 7807 6695 3525 Blue 12
1 PM Fri 57 57 E 5 8014 7359 4189 Blue 13
2 PM Fri 57 56 E 5 7807 6695 3525 Blue 12
3 PM Fri 58 56 E 5 7807 6695 3525 Blue 12
4 PM Fri 58 56 SE 3 7807 6695 3525 Blue 12
5 PM Fri 56 54 SE 3 7390 5793 2623 Blue 10
6 PM Fri 53 51 SE 3 5805 5204 2034 Blue 7
7 PM Fri 51 49 E 3 5548 4062 892 Blue 5
8 PM Fri 49 47 E 3 4765 3170 0 Blue 3
9 PM Fri 48 46 E 3 4073 3170 0 Blue 2
10 PM Fri 48 46 E 3 4073 3170 0 Blue 2
11 PM Fri 48 46 E 3 4073 3170 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Sat 48 46 E 3 4073 3170 0 Blue 2
1 AM Sat 49 47 NE 5 4765 3170 0 Blue 3
2 AM Sat 50 48 NE 5 5250 3751 581 Blue 4
3 AM Sat 50 48 NE 5 5250 3751 581 Blue 4

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst