Detailed Predictions for: Mentone
Launch Altitude (f): 3170
LZ Altitude (f): 1900
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

21 SEP 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Fri 63 61 E 5 2612 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 64 62 E 5 2612 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 63 61 E 5 2612 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 68 66 E 2 2612 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 74 73 S 2 2833 3170 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 76 77 SW 2 3280 3170 0 Blue 3
11 AM Fri 78 80 SW 6 3783 3279 109 Blue 6
12 Noon Fri 81 84 SW 7 4861 3989 819 Blue 10
1 PM Fri 83 87 SW 8 8058 4837 1667 Blue 13
2 PM Fri 85 88 W 9 8974 5498 2328 Blue 14
3 PM Fri 86 88 W 10 8974 5498 2328 Blue 14
4 PM Fri 85 85 W 12 5512 4199 1029 Blue 11
5 PM Fri 85 84 W 13 4861 3989 819 Blue 10
6 PM Fri 82 80 W 10 3783 3279 109 Blue 6
7 PM Fri 77 75 W 5 3076 3170 0 Blue 1
8 PM Fri 73 71 N 3 2612 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 71 69 N 3 2612 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 69 67 N 3 2612 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 68 66 N 5 2612 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 67 65 NE 5 2612 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 67 65 NE 5 2612 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 66 64 N 5 2612 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 67 65 N 5 2612 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 67 65 N 6 2612 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 66 64 N 6 2612 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 67 65 NE 6 2612 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 66 64 NE 6 2612 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 70 68 NE 2 2612 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 76 75 NW 1 3076 3170 0 Blue 1
10 AM Sat 78 79 W 2 3570 3170 0 Blue 5
11 AM Sat 80 82 W 7 4208 3566 396 Blue 8
12 Noon Sat 83 86 W 8 6164 4428 1258 Blue 12
1 PM Sat 84 88 W 8 8974 5498 2328 Blue 14
2 PM Sat 86 89 W 9 9394 6083 2913 Blue 15
3 PM Sat 87 89 W 9 9394 6083 2913 Blue 15
4 PM Sat 86 86 W 10 6164 4428 1258 Blue 12
5 PM Sat 86 85 W 13 5512 4199 1029 Blue 11
6 PM Sat 82 80 W 12 3783 3279 109 Blue 6
7 PM Sat 77 75 W 5 3076 3170 0 Blue 1
8 PM Sat 73 71 NE 2 2612 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 70 68 NE 2 2612 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 69 67 N 1 2612 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 67 65 N 2 2612 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 66 64 N 3 2612 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 66 64 N 3 2612 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 66 64 N 3 2612 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 66 64 N 3 2612 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 66 64 NE 3 2612 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 65 63 NE 3 2612 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 66 64 NE 3 2612 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 65 63 NE 2 2612 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 69 67 W 0 2612 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 74 73 W 2 2833 3170 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 76 77 SW 5 3280 3170 0 Blue 3
11 AM Sun 78 81 W 7 3996 3407 237 Blue 7
12 Noon Sun 80 84 W 8 4861 3989 819 Blue 10
1 PM Sun 82 86 W 9 6164 4428 1258 Blue 12
2 PM Sun 83 86 W 12 6164 4428 1258 Blue 12
3 PM Sun 84 86 W 13 6164 4428 1258 Blue 12
4 PM Sun 83 83 W 14 4448 3777 607 Blue 9
5 PM Sun 83 82 W 14 4208 3566 396 Blue 8
6 PM Sun 79 77 W 10 3280 3170 0 Blue 3
7 PM Sun 73 71 W 6 2612 3170 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 69 67 NW 2 2612 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 66 64 NW 1 2612 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 64 62 NE 0 2612 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 62 60 NE 1 2612 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 61 59 E 1 2612 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 62 60 E 1 2612 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 61 59 E 1 2612 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 61 59 E 1 2612 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 61 59 E 2 2612 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 60 58 N 7 2612 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 61 59 N 7 2612 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 60 58 N 7 2612 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 65 63 SE 1 2612 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 71 70 SE 1 2612 3170 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 73 74 SE 1 2992 3170 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 75 78 SW 7 3409 3170 0 Blue 4
12 Noon Mon 78 82 SW 7 4208 3566 396 Blue 8
1 PM Mon 80 84 SW 7 4861 3989 819 Blue 10
2 PM Mon 82 86 SW 10 6164 4428 1258 Blue 12
3 PM Mon 83 85 SW 10 5512 4199 1029 Blue 11
4 PM Mon 83 83 SW 10 4448 3777 607 Blue 9
5 PM Mon 82 81 W 12 3996 3407 237 Blue 7
6 PM Mon 78 76 W 12 3159 3170 0 Blue 2
7 PM Mon 74 72 W 12 2612 3170 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 70 68 W 2 2612 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 67 65 W 2 2612 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 66 64 W 2 2612 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 64 62 N 3 2612 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 63 61 N 3 2612 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 63 61 N 3 2612 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 62 60 NE 8 2612 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 63 61 NE 8 2612 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 63 61 NE 8 2612 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 62 60 NE 9 2612 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 63 61 NE 9 2612 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 62 60 NE 9 2612 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 67 65 N 3 2612 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 73 72 N 3 2612 3170 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 74 75 N 3 3076 3170 0 Blue 1
11 AM Tue 77 80 W 7 3783 3279 109 Blue 6
12 Noon Tue 79 83 W 7 4448 3777 607 Blue 9
1 PM Tue 81 85 W 7 5512 4199 1029 Blue 11
2 PM Tue 83 86 S 10 6164 4428 1258 Blue 12
3 PM Tue 84 86 S 10 6164 4428 1258 Blue 12
4 PM Tue 84 84 S 10 4861 3989 819 Blue 10
5 PM Tue 83 82 W 10 4208 3566 396 Blue 8
6 PM Tue 80 78 W 10 3409 3170 0 Blue 4
7 PM Tue 75 73 W 10 2833 3170 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 71 69 N 5 2612 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 69 67 N 5 2612 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 67 65 N 5 2612 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 66 64 NE 5 2612 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 65 63 NE 5 2612 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 65 63 NE 5 2612 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 64 62 NE 9 2612 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 65 63 NE 9 2612 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 65 63 NE 9 2612 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 64 62 NE 13 2612 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 65 63 NE 13 2612 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 64 62 NE 13 2612 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 68 66 E 7 2612 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 74 73 E 7 2833 3170 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 76 77 E 7 3280 3170 0 Blue 3
11 AM Wed 78 80 SW 5 3783 3279 109 Blue 6
12 Noon Wed 81 84 SW 5 4861 3989 819 Blue 10
1 PM Wed 82 86 SW 5 6164 4428 1258 Blue 12
2 PM Wed 84 87 SW 7 8058 4837 1667 Blue 13
3 PM Wed 85 87 SW 7 8058 4837 1667 Blue 13
4 PM Wed 85 85 SW 7 5512 4199 1029 Blue 11
5 PM Wed 84 83 W 13 4448 3777 607 Blue 9
6 PM Wed 80 78 W 13 3409 3170 0 Blue 4
7 PM Wed 75 73 W 13 2833 3170 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 71 69 NW 1 2612 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 68 66 NW 1 2612 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 67 65 NW 1 2612 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 65 63 NE 1 2612 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 64 62 NE 1 2612 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 64 62 NE 1 2612 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 64 62 NE 6 2612 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 64 62 NE 6 2612 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 64 62 NE 6 2612 3170 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst