Detailed Predictions for: Mentone
Launch Altitude (f): 3170
LZ Altitude (f): 1900
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

11 NOV 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Mon 61 59 NE 6 2838 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 61 59 E 6 2838 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 63 61 E 6 2838 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 64 62 E 3 2838 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 67 65 E 2 2838 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 69 68 E 1 2995 3170 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 72 72 SW 2 4240 3170 0 Blue 4
11 AM Mon 74 75 SW 3 6519 4209 1039 Blue 7
12 Noon Mon 76 77 SW 3 7877 5712 2542 Blue 9
1 PM Mon 78 78 SW 5 8481 6438 3268 Blue 10
2 PM Mon 77 77 SW 5 7877 5712 2542 Blue 9
3 PM Mon 77 76 SW 3 7216 4942 1772 Blue 8
4 PM Mon 76 74 W 5 5780 3477 307 Blue 6
5 PM Mon 72 70 W 2 3297 3170 0 Blue 2
6 PM Mon 69 67 N 2 2866 3170 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 66 64 NE 3 2838 3170 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 65 63 NE 3 2838 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 65 63 NE 3 2838 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 65 63 E 5 2838 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 65 63 E 5 2838 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 64 62 NE 5 2838 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 64 62 NE 5 2838 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 63 61 NE 5 2838 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 62 60 NE 5 2838 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 62 60 E 5 2838 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 63 61 NE 5 2838 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 64 62 NE 5 2838 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 66 64 NE 3 2838 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 68 66 E 3 2838 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 71 70 S 3 3297 3170 0 Blue 2
10 AM Tue 74 74 SW 3 5780 3477 307 Blue 6
11 AM Tue 76 77 SW 3 7877 5712 2542 Blue 9
12 Noon Tue 77 78 SW 3 8481 6438 3268 Blue 10
1 PM Tue 78 78 SW 5 8481 6438 3268 Blue 10
2 PM Tue 78 78 SW 5 8481 6438 3268 Blue 10
3 PM Tue 78 77 W 5 7877 5712 2542 Blue 9
4 PM Tue 76 74 W 5 5780 3477 307 Blue 6
5 PM Tue 73 71 W 5 3480 3170 0 Blue 3
6 PM Tue 69 67 N 3 2866 3170 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 65 63 N 3 2838 3170 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 64 62 N 2 2838 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 63 61 NE 2 2838 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 63 61 NE 2 2838 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 63 61 NE 2 2838 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 62 60 NE 2 2838 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 62 60 NE 2 2838 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 62 60 NE 3 2838 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 62 60 NE 3 2838 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 62 60 NE 3 2838 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 63 61 NE 2 2838 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 64 62 E 2 2838 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 65 63 E 1 2838 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 67 65 SE 2 2838 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 70 69 S 2 3115 3170 0 Blue 1
10 AM Wed 72 71 SW 3 3480 3170 0 Blue 3
11 AM Wed 74 73 SW 5 4991 3295 125 Blue 5
12 Noon Wed 76 75 W 5 6519 4209 1039 Blue 7
1 PM Wed 77 76 W 6 7216 4942 1772 Blue 8
2 PM Wed 76 75 W 7 6519 4209 1039 Blue 7
3 PM Wed 76 74 W 8 5780 3477 307 Blue 6
4 PM Wed 74 72 W 8 4240 3170 0 Blue 4
5 PM Wed 70 68 NW 7 2995 3170 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 66 64 N 3 2838 3170 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 63 61 NE 1 2838 3170 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 62 60 NE 1 2838 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 63 61 NE 1 2838 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 64 62 NE 1 2838 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 64 62 NE 1 2838 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 63 61 NE 1 2838 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 62 60 E 1 2838 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 62 60 E 1 2838 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 61 59 E 1 2838 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 61 59 E 1 2838 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 60 58 E 1 2838 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 60 58 E 1 2838 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 61 59 E 1 2838 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 63 61 E 1 2838 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 66 64 E 1 2838 3170 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 69 68 SW 3 2995 3170 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 71 71 SW 3 3480 3170 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Thu 72 72 SW 3 4240 3170 0 Blue 4
1 PM Thu 72 71 W 6 3480 3170 0 Blue 3
2 PM Thu 73 72 W 6 4240 3170 0 Blue 4
3 PM Thu 72 70 W 6 3297 3170 0 Blue 2
4 PM Thu 70 68 W 6 2995 3170 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 67 65 W 6 2838 3170 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 64 62 W 6 2838 3170 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 62 60 N 1 2838 3170 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 61 59 N 1 2838 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 61 59 N 1 2838 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 61 59 NE 1 2838 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 61 59 NE 1 2838 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 61 59 NE 1 2838 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 60 58 NE 1 2838 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 59 57 NE 1 2838 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 58 56 NE 1 2838 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 57 55 N 2 2838 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 57 55 N 2 2838 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 58 56 N 2 2838 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 60 58 NE 1 2838 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 62 60 NE 1 2838 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 65 63 NE 1 2838 3170 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 68 68 SW 3 2995 3170 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 70 70 SW 3 3297 3170 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Fri 71 71 SW 3 3480 3170 0 Blue 3
1 PM Fri 72 72 SW 6 4240 3170 0 Blue 4
2 PM Fri 72 71 SW 6 3480 3170 0 Blue 3
3 PM Fri 73 71 SW 6 3480 3170 0 Blue 3
4 PM Fri 71 69 W 6 3115 3170 0 Blue 1
5 PM Fri 68 66 W 6 2838 3170 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 64 62 W 6 2838 3170 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 61 59 N 2 2838 3170 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 59 57 N 2 2838 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 59 57 N 2 2838 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 60 58 NE 6 2838 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 60 58 NE 6 2838 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 61 59 NE 6 2838 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 62 60 NE 8 2838 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 62 60 NE 8 2838 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 63 61 NE 8 2838 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 63 61 NE 10 2838 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 63 61 NE 10 2838 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 63 61 NE 10 2838 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 65 63 NE 10 2838 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 67 65 NE 10 2838 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 70 69 NE 10 3115 3170 0 Blue 1
10 AM Sat 73 73 SW 3 4991 3295 125 Blue 5
11 AM Sat 75 76 SW 3 7216 4942 1772 Blue 8
12 Noon Sat 76 77 SW 3 7877 5712 2542 Blue 9
1 PM Sat 77 77 SW 5 7877 5712 2542 Blue 9
2 PM Sat 76 76 SW 5 7216 4942 1772 Blue 8
3 PM Sat 77 76 SW 5 7216 4942 1772 Blue 8
4 PM Sat 75 73 NE 6 4991 3295 125 Blue 5
5 PM Sat 72 70 NE 6 3297 3170 0 Blue 2
6 PM Sat 68 66 NE 6 2838 3170 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 65 63 NE 8 2838 3170 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 64 62 NE 8 2838 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 64 62 NE 8 2838 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 65 63 NE 12 2838 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 65 63 NE 12 2838 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 64 62 NE 12 2838 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 63 61 NE 13 2838 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 62 60 NE 13 2838 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 61 59 NE 13 2838 3170 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst