Detailed Predictions for: Mentone
Launch Altitude (f): 3170
LZ Altitude (f): 1900
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

20 JUL 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Fri 68 66 SE 0 2589 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 69 67 SE 0 2589 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 70 68 SE 0 2589 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 72 71 SW 2 2820 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 74 74 W 3 3373 3170 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 76 78 W 3 4405 3656 486 Blue 4
11 AM Fri 78 81 W 7 5090 4398 1228 Blue 7
12 Noon Fri 80 84 W 7 5932 5071 1901 Blue 10
1 PM Fri 82 86 W 8 6485 5629 2459 Blue 12
2 PM Fri 84 87 W 9 6715 5906 2736 Blue 13
3 PM Fri 83 85 W 9 6209 5351 2181 Blue 11
4 PM Fri 84 85 W 10 6209 5351 2181 Blue 11
5 PM Fri 82 82 W 10 5372 4557 1387 Blue 8
6 PM Fri 79 77 W 10 4237 3369 199 Blue 3
7 PM Fri 76 74 W 9 3373 3170 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 73 71 W 7 2820 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 71 69 W 6 2589 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 69 67 W 5 2589 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 68 66 W 3 2589 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 67 65 W 3 2589 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 67 65 W 3 2589 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 67 65 W 1 2589 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 66 64 W 1 2589 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 65 63 W 1 2589 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 65 63 W 1 2589 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 65 63 W 1 2589 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 66 64 W 1 2589 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 68 67 W 2 2589 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 71 71 W 3 2820 3170 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 74 76 W 3 3950 3186 16 Blue 2
11 AM Sat 77 80 W 7 4726 4225 1055 Blue 6
12 Noon Sat 80 84 W 7 5932 5071 1901 Blue 10
1 PM Sat 82 86 W 7 6485 5629 2459 Blue 12
2 PM Sat 84 88 W 9 6860 6181 3011 Blue 14
3 PM Sat 84 87 W 9 6715 5906 2736 Blue 13
4 PM Sat 85 86 W 10 6485 5629 2459 Blue 12
5 PM Sat 83 83 W 10 5653 4717 1547 Blue 9
6 PM Sat 81 80 W 9 4726 4225 1055 Blue 6
7 PM Sat 77 75 W 9 3663 3170 0 Blue 1
8 PM Sat 74 72 W 7 3004 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 71 69 W 6 2589 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 69 67 W 6 2589 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 68 66 W 3 2589 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 67 65 W 3 2589 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 67 65 W 2 2589 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 67 65 NW 2 2589 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 66 64 NW 1 2589 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 66 64 NW 1 2589 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 66 64 N 0 2589 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 67 65 N 0 2589 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 68 66 W 0 2589 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 70 69 SW 2 2589 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 72 72 SW 3 3004 3170 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 76 78 SW 5 4405 3656 486 Blue 4
11 AM Sun 79 83 W 7 5653 4717 1547 Blue 9
12 Noon Sun 82 87 W 7 6715 5906 2736 Blue 13
1 PM Sun 85 91 W 7 8549 6842 3672 Blue 17
2 PM Sun 87 92 W 9 8903 7125 3955 Blue 18
3 PM Sun 87 91 W 9 8549 6842 3672 Blue 17
4 PM Sun 88 90 W 9 7900 6698 3528 Blue 16
5 PM Sun 86 86 W 9 6485 5629 2459 Blue 12
6 PM Sun 85 84 W 7 5932 5071 1901 Blue 10
7 PM Sun 82 80 W 6 4726 4225 1055 Blue 6
8 PM Sun 80 78 W 5 4405 3656 486 Blue 4
9 PM Sun 78 76 NW 3 3950 3186 16 Blue 2
10 PM Sun 76 74 NW 2 3373 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 76 74 N 2 3373 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 76 74 N 2 3373 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 76 74 N 5 3373 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 76 74 N 6 3373 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 75 73 N 7 3187 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 74 72 N 8 3004 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 75 73 N 8 3187 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 78 76 N 8 3950 3186 16 Blue 2
7 AM Mon 83 81 N 8 5090 4398 1228 Blue 7
8 AM Mon 87 86 N 2 6485 5629 2459 Blue 12
9 AM Mon 90 90 N 2 7900 6698 3528 Blue 16
10 AM Mon 92 94 N 2 9575 8437 5267 Blue 20
11 AM Mon 94 98 SW 8 10951 9834 6664 Blue 24
12 Noon Mon 96 101 SW 8 12231 10863 7693 White 27
1 PM Mon 98 103 SW 8 12646 12428 9258 White 29
2 PM Mon 99 104 SW 3 12851 12851 9681 White 30
3 PM Mon 99 103 SW 3 12646 12428 9258 White 29
4 PM Mon 98 100 SW 3 12023 10516 7346 White 26
5 PM Mon 96 96 W 12 10255 9174 6004 Blue 22
6 PM Mon 93 92 W 12 8903 7125 3955 Blue 18
7 PM Mon 90 88 W 12 6860 6181 3011 Blue 14
8 PM Mon 87 85 W 5 6209 5351 2181 Blue 11
9 PM Mon 84 82 W 5 5372 4557 1387 Blue 8
10 PM Mon 81 79 W 5 4566 3941 771 Blue 5
11 PM Mon 80 78 N 2 4405 3656 486 Blue 4
12 Midnight Tue 80 78 N 2 4405 3656 486 Blue 4
1 AM Tue 81 79 N 2 4566 3941 771 Blue 5
2 AM Tue 81 79 N 10 4566 3941 771 Blue 5
3 AM Tue 82 80 N 10 4726 4225 1055 Blue 6
4 AM Tue 82 80 N 10 4726 4225 1055 Blue 6
5 AM Tue 82 80 N 9 4726 4225 1055 Blue 6
6 AM Tue 84 82 N 9 5372 4557 1387 Blue 8
7 AM Tue 86 84 N 9 5932 5071 1901 Blue 10
8 AM Tue 88 87 NW 1 6715 5906 2736 Blue 13
9 AM Tue 90 90 NW 1 7900 6698 3528 Blue 16
10 AM Tue 91 93 NW 1 9241 7797 4627 Blue 19
11 AM Tue 93 96 W 8 10255 9174 6004 Blue 22
12 Noon Tue 95 99 W 8 11815 10175 7005 White 25
1 PM Tue 98 103 W 8 12646 12428 9258 White 29
2 PM Tue 99 103 W 12 12646 12428 9258 White 29
3 PM Tue 100 103 W 12 12646 12428 9258 White 29
4 PM Tue 99 101 W 12 12231 10863 7693 White 27
5 PM Tue 97 97 W 12 10602 9505 6335 Blue 23
6 PM Tue 94 93 W 12 9241 7797 4627 Blue 19
7 PM Tue 91 89 W 12 7218 6455 3285 Blue 15
8 PM Tue 88 86 W 5 6485 5629 2459 Blue 12
9 PM Tue 85 83 W 5 5653 4717 1547 Blue 9
10 PM Tue 83 81 W 5 5090 4398 1228 Blue 7
11 PM Tue 82 80 N 2 4726 4225 1055 Blue 6
12 Midnight Wed 82 80 N 2 4726 4225 1055 Blue 6
1 AM Wed 81 79 N 2 4566 3941 771 Blue 5
2 AM Wed 81 79 N 7 4566 3941 771 Blue 5
3 AM Wed 81 79 N 7 4566 3941 771 Blue 5
4 AM Wed 81 79 N 7 4566 3941 771 Blue 5
5 AM Wed 81 79 N 7 4566 3941 771 Blue 5
6 AM Wed 82 80 N 7 4726 4225 1055 Blue 6
7 AM Wed 84 82 N 7 5372 4557 1387 Blue 8
8 AM Wed 86 85 SW 3 6209 5351 2181 Blue 11
9 AM Wed 89 89 SW 3 7218 6455 3285 Blue 15
10 AM Wed 92 94 SW 3 9575 8437 5267 Blue 20
11 AM Wed 95 99 W 8 11815 10175 7005 White 25
12 Noon Wed 97 102 W 8 12440 11205 8035 White 28
1 PM Wed 99 104 W 8 12851 12851 9681 White 30
2 PM Wed 101 105 W 13 13057 13057 9887 White 31
3 PM Wed 101 104 W 13 12851 12851 9681 White 30
4 PM Wed 100 102 W 13 12440 11205 8035 White 28
5 PM Wed 98 98 W 12 10951 9834 6664 Blue 24
6 PM Wed 95 94 W 12 9575 8437 5267 Blue 20
7 PM Wed 91 89 W 12 7218 6455 3285 Blue 15
8 PM Wed 87 85 W 3 6209 5351 2181 Blue 11
9 PM Wed 84 82 W 3 5372 4557 1387 Blue 8
10 PM Wed 81 79 W 3 4566 3941 771 Blue 5
11 PM Wed 80 78 N 2 4405 3656 486 Blue 4
12 Midnight Thu 79 77 N 2 4237 3369 199 Blue 3
1 AM Thu 79 77 N 2 4237 3369 199 Blue 3
2 AM Thu 79 77 N 5 4237 3369 199 Blue 3
3 AM Thu 79 77 N 5 4237 3369 199 Blue 3
4 AM Thu 79 77 N 5 4237 3369 199 Blue 3

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst