Detailed Predictions for: Mentone
Launch Altitude (f): 3170
LZ Altitude (f): 1900
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

18 SEP 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Wed 59 57 E 1 2848 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 59 57 SE 1 2848 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 60 58 E 1 2848 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 62 60 SW 1 2848 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 64 63 SW 2 2881 3170 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 67 68 SW 3 3382 3170 0 Blue 3
11 AM Wed 70 73 SW 6 4519 3725 555 Blue 8
12 Noon Wed 72 76 SW 6 5111 4506 1336 Blue 11
1 PM Wed 75 79 SW 6 5426 5103 1933 Blue 14
2 PM Wed 77 81 W 7 5976 5313 2143 Blue 16
3 PM Wed 77 79 W 7 5426 5103 1933 Blue 14
4 PM Wed 78 79 W 7 5426 5103 1933 Blue 14
5 PM Wed 76 75 W 8 5000 4247 1077 Blue 10
6 PM Wed 73 71 W 9 3995 3380 210 Blue 6
7 PM Wed 70 68 W 7 3382 3170 0 Blue 3
8 PM Wed 66 64 W 5 2948 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 64 62 W 2 2848 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 63 61 W 2 2848 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 62 60 SW 1 2848 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 61 59 SW 1 2848 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 60 58 SW 1 2848 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 59 57 SW 1 2848 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 58 56 SW 1 2848 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 58 56 S 1 2848 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 57 55 SE 2 2848 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 57 55 SE 2 2848 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 58 56 S 2 2848 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 59 57 S 2 2848 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 61 60 S 3 2848 3170 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 63 64 SW 6 2948 3170 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 66 69 SW 7 3524 3170 0 Blue 4
12 Noon Thu 68 72 SW 8 4258 3521 351 Blue 7
1 PM Thu 71 76 SW 8 5111 4506 1336 Blue 11
2 PM Thu 73 77 SW 8 5216 4763 1593 Blue 12
3 PM Thu 73 76 W 8 5111 4506 1336 Blue 11
4 PM Thu 73 74 W 9 4779 3986 816 Blue 9
5 PM Thu 72 71 W 9 3995 3380 210 Blue 6
6 PM Thu 69 67 W 8 3240 3170 0 Blue 2
7 PM Thu 65 63 W 7 2881 3170 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 62 60 W 6 2848 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 60 58 W 5 2848 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 59 57 W 2 2848 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 59 57 W 2 2848 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 58 56 W 2 2848 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 57 55 W 2 2848 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 56 54 W 2 2848 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 55 53 W 2 2848 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 55 53 W 2 2848 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 55 53 SW 2 2848 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 56 54 SW 2 2848 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 57 55 SW 2 2848 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 59 57 SW 2 2848 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 61 61 SW 3 2848 3170 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 64 65 SW 5 3020 3170 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 68 71 SW 6 3995 3380 210 Blue 6
12 Noon Fri 72 76 SW 6 5111 4506 1336 Blue 11
1 PM Fri 76 80 SW 6 5645 5208 2038 Blue 15
2 PM Fri 80 84 SW 6 7526 5944 2774 Blue 19
3 PM Fri 80 82 SW 6 6473 5418 2248 Blue 17
4 PM Fri 81 82 SW 6 6473 5418 2248 Blue 17
5 PM Fri 78 77 SW 6 5216 4763 1593 Blue 12
6 PM Fri 75 73 SW 5 4519 3725 555 Blue 8
7 PM Fri 70 68 NW 3 3382 3170 0 Blue 3
8 PM Fri 67 65 NW 2 3020 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 64 62 N 2 2848 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 63 61 NE 1 2848 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 63 61 E 1 2848 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 63 61 E 2 2848 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 63 61 E 2 2848 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 63 61 E 3 2848 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 62 60 NE 5 2848 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 61 59 NE 6 2848 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 62 60 NE 6 2848 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 64 62 NE 6 2848 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 67 65 NE 6 3020 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 70 68 E 2 3382 3170 0 Blue 3
9 AM Sat 73 72 E 2 4258 3521 351 Blue 7
10 AM Sat 75 76 E 2 5111 4506 1336 Blue 11
11 AM Sat 78 81 SW 3 5976 5313 2143 Blue 16
12 Noon Sat 80 84 SW 3 7526 5944 2774 Blue 19
1 PM Sat 82 86 SW 3 8523 6940 3770 Blue 21
2 PM Sat 83 87 SW 6 8886 7452 4282 Blue 22
3 PM Sat 85 87 SW 6 8886 7452 4282 Blue 22
4 PM Sat 84 85 SW 6 8031 6413 3243 Blue 20
5 PM Sat 84 83 SW 6 7008 5617 2447 Blue 18
6 PM Sat 80 78 SW 6 5321 4988 1818 Blue 13
7 PM Sat 76 74 SW 6 4779 3986 816 Blue 9
8 PM Sat 72 70 E 2 3732 3238 68 Blue 5
9 PM Sat 70 68 E 2 3382 3170 0 Blue 3
10 PM Sat 69 67 E 2 3240 3170 0 Blue 2
11 PM Sat 69 67 NE 1 3240 3170 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Sun 68 66 NE 1 3107 3170 0 Blue 1
1 AM Sun 67 65 NE 1 3020 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 66 64 E 3 2948 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 65 63 E 3 2881 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 64 62 E 3 2848 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 65 63 E 5 2881 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 67 65 E 5 3020 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 71 69 E 5 3524 3170 0 Blue 4
8 AM Sun 75 73 E 2 4519 3725 555 Blue 8
9 AM Sun 78 77 E 2 5216 4763 1593 Blue 12
10 AM Sun 81 82 E 2 6473 5418 2248 Blue 17
11 AM Sun 83 85 S 6 8031 6413 3243 Blue 20
12 Noon Sun 85 88 S 6 9100 7951 4781 Blue 23
1 PM Sun 86 90 S 6 9622 8845 5675 Blue 25
2 PM Sun 86 89 SW 9 9314 8437 5267 Blue 24
3 PM Sun 86 88 SW 9 9100 7951 4781 Blue 23
4 PM Sun 85 85 SW 9 8031 6413 3243 Blue 20
5 PM Sun 82 81 W 9 5976 5313 2143 Blue 16
6 PM Sun 79 77 W 9 5216 4763 1593 Blue 12
7 PM Sun 75 73 W 9 4519 3725 555 Blue 8
8 PM Sun 72 70 E 3 3732 3238 68 Blue 5
9 PM Sun 69 67 E 3 3240 3170 0 Blue 2
10 PM Sun 68 66 E 3 3107 3170 0 Blue 1
11 PM Sun 66 64 SE 2 2948 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 65 63 SE 2 2881 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 64 62 SE 2 2848 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 62 60 SE 2 2848 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 61 59 SE 2 2848 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 60 58 SE 2 2848 3170 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 59 57 SE 2 2848 3170 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 59 57 SE 2 2848 3170 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 60 58 SE 2 2848 3170 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 62 60 S 3 2848 3170 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 64 63 S 3 2881 3170 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 66 67 S 3 3240 3170 0 Blue 2
11 AM Mon 69 71 S 7 3995 3380 210 Blue 6
12 Noon Mon 71 74 S 7 4779 3986 816 Blue 9
1 PM Mon 73 76 S 7 5111 4506 1336 Blue 11
2 PM Mon 75 77 S 8 5216 4763 1593 Blue 12
3 PM Mon 77 78 S 8 5321 4988 1818 Blue 13
4 PM Mon 77 77 S 8 5216 4763 1593 Blue 12
5 PM Mon 77 76 SW 8 5111 4506 1336 Blue 11
6 PM Mon 74 72 SW 8 4258 3521 351 Blue 7
7 PM Mon 70 68 SW 8 3382 3170 0 Blue 3
8 PM Mon 66 64 S 5 2948 3170 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 64 62 S 5 2848 3170 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 63 61 S 5 2848 3170 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 62 60 S 1 2848 3170 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 61 59 S 1 2848 3170 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 60 58 S 1 2848 3170 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 59 57 SW 2 2848 3170 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 59 57 SW 2 2848 3170 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 59 57 SW 2 2848 3170 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst