Detailed Predictions for: Warner Springs
Launch Altitude (f): 2000
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

25 MAR 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Mon 44 44 E 7 2785 2785 785 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 44 44 E 7 2785 2785 785 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 43 43 E 7 2785 2785 785 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 44 44 E 6 2785 2785 785 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 53 55 E 6 2785 2785 785 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 60 63 SE 6 3656 3187 1187 Blue 5
11 AM Mon 64 69 SE 7 7019 4546 2546 Blue 11
12 Noon Mon 67 73 SE 6 8474 7543 5543 Blue 15
1 PM Mon 68 74 S 6 8765 7838 5838 Blue 16
2 PM Mon 69 74 SW 7 8765 7838 5838 Blue 16
3 PM Mon 69 73 SW 8 8474 7543 5543 Blue 15
4 PM Mon 69 71 SW 8 7885 5830 3830 Blue 13
5 PM Mon 67 68 SW 9 5937 4260 2260 Blue 10
6 PM Mon 65 65 SW 7 4282 3471 1471 Blue 7
7 PM Mon 60 60 SW 5 3188 2785 785 Blue 2
8 PM Mon 55 55 SE 2 2785 2785 785 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 52 52 E 1 2785 2785 785 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 51 51 NE 1 2785 2785 785 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 49 49 N 3 2785 2785 785 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 49 49 N 3 2785 2785 785 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 48 48 NE 2 2785 2785 785 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 46 46 E 1 2785 2785 785 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 46 46 NE 1 2785 2785 785 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 45 45 NE 1 2785 2785 785 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 44 44 NE 1 2785 2785 785 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 44 44 NE 1 2785 2785 785 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 43 43 NE 1 2785 2785 785 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 44 44 NE 1 2785 2785 785 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 52 53 N 1 2785 2785 785 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 59 61 NW 2 3293 2941 941 Blue 3
11 AM Tue 64 67 W 3 4768 3834 1834 Blue 9
12 Noon Tue 66 69 W 6 7019 4546 2546 Blue 11
1 PM Tue 67 70 W 8 7587 4756 2756 Blue 12
2 PM Tue 68 71 W 9 7885 5830 3830 Blue 13
3 PM Tue 68 70 W 10 7587 4756 2756 Blue 12
4 PM Tue 68 69 W 10 7019 4546 2546 Blue 11
5 PM Tue 66 66 W 9 4556 3652 1652 Blue 8
6 PM Tue 64 64 SW 8 3839 3292 1292 Blue 6
7 PM Tue 59 59 S 5 3082 2785 785 Blue 1
8 PM Tue 54 54 SE 2 2785 2785 785 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 51 51 SE 2 2785 2785 785 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 50 50 NE 2 2785 2785 785 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 48 48 N 3 2785 2785 785 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 48 48 N 3 2785 2785 785 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 47 47 N 3 2785 2785 785 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 45 45 N 3 2785 2785 785 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 45 45 N 3 2785 2785 785 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 44 44 N 3 2785 2785 785 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 43 43 N 3 2785 2785 785 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 43 43 N 2 2785 2785 785 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 42 42 NW 1 2785 2785 785 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 43 43 NW 2 2785 2785 785 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 49 49 NW 5 2785 2785 785 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 54 55 W 8 2785 2785 785 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 58 60 W 12 3188 2785 785 Blue 2
12 Noon Wed 60 63 W 14 3656 3187 1187 Blue 5
1 PM Wed 61 64 W 15 3839 3292 1292 Blue 6
2 PM Wed 61 64 W 16 3839 3292 1292 Blue 6
3 PM Wed 62 64 W 17 3839 3292 1292 Blue 6
4 PM Wed 61 62 W 17 3474 3082 1082 Blue 4
5 PM Wed 60 60 W 17 3188 2785 785 Blue 2
6 PM Wed 58 58 W 15 2941 2785 785 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 54 54 W 12 2785 2785 785 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 50 50 W 8 2785 2785 785 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 48 48 W 6 2785 2785 785 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 47 47 W 3 2785 2785 785 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 45 45 W 2 2785 2785 785 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 45 45 W 2 2785 2785 785 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 44 44 NW 3 2785 2785 785 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 42 42 N 3 2785 2785 785 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 42 42 N 5 2785 2785 785 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 42 42 N 5 2785 2785 785 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 40 40 N 6 2785 2785 785 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 41 41 N 6 2785 2785 785 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 40 40 N 6 2785 2785 785 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 41 41 N 3 2785 2785 785 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 48 49 N 3 2785 2785 785 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 53 55 N 3 2785 2785 785 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 57 61 W 9 3293 2941 941 Blue 3
12 Noon Thu 58 63 W 9 3656 3187 1187 Blue 5
1 PM Thu 60 65 W 9 4282 3471 1471 Blue 7
2 PM Thu 61 66 W 13 4556 3652 1652 Blue 8
3 PM Thu 61 65 W 13 4282 3471 1471 Blue 7
4 PM Thu 60 62 W 13 3474 3082 1082 Blue 4
5 PM Thu 59 60 W 13 3188 2785 785 Blue 2
6 PM Thu 57 57 W 13 2785 2785 785 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 53 53 W 13 2785 2785 785 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 49 49 W 6 2785 2785 785 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 47 47 W 6 2785 2785 785 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 46 46 W 6 2785 2785 785 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 45 45 NW 3 2785 2785 785 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 44 44 NW 3 2785 2785 785 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 44 44 NW 3 2785 2785 785 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 42 42 N 8 2785 2785 785 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 42 42 N 8 2785 2785 785 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 42 42 N 8 2785 2785 785 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 40 40 N 8 2785 2785 785 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 41 41 N 8 2785 2785 785 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 40 40 N 8 2785 2785 785 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 41 41 NW 5 2785 2785 785 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 49 50 NW 5 2785 2785 785 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 56 59 NW 5 3082 2785 785 Blue 1
11 AM Fri 61 65 NW 6 4282 3471 1471 Blue 7
12 Noon Fri 63 68 NW 6 5937 4260 2260 Blue 10
1 PM Fri 64 69 NW 6 7019 4546 2546 Blue 11
2 PM Fri 66 71 W 9 7885 5830 3830 Blue 13
3 PM Fri 65 69 W 9 7019 4546 2546 Blue 11
4 PM Fri 65 67 W 9 4768 3834 1834 Blue 9
5 PM Fri 63 64 NW 12 3839 3292 1292 Blue 6
6 PM Fri 62 62 NW 12 3474 3082 1082 Blue 4
7 PM Fri 56 56 NW 12 2785 2785 785 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 51 51 S 3 2785 2785 785 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 49 49 S 3 2785 2785 785 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 48 48 S 3 2785 2785 785 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 46 46 N 5 2785 2785 785 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 45 45 N 5 2785 2785 785 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 45 45 N 5 2785 2785 785 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 43 43 NE 8 2785 2785 785 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 42 42 NE 8 2785 2785 785 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 42 42 NE 8 2785 2785 785 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 41 41 NE 12 2785 2785 785 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 41 41 NE 12 2785 2785 785 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 40 40 NE 12 2785 2785 785 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 42 42 NE 9 2785 2785 785 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 50 51 NE 9 2785 2785 785 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 57 60 NE 9 3188 2785 785 Blue 2
11 AM Sat 61 65 NE 9 4282 3471 1471 Blue 7
12 Noon Sat 64 69 NE 9 7019 4546 2546 Blue 11
1 PM Sat 65 70 NE 9 7587 4756 2756 Blue 12
2 PM Sat 67 72 NE 13 8181 6890 4890 Blue 14
3 PM Sat 66 70 NE 13 7587 4756 2756 Blue 12
4 PM Sat 66 68 NE 13 5937 4260 2260 Blue 10
5 PM Sat 64 65 NE 13 4282 3471 1471 Blue 7
6 PM Sat 62 62 NE 13 3474 3082 1082 Blue 4
7 PM Sat 57 57 NE 13 2785 2785 785 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 52 52 NE 7 2785 2785 785 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 49 49 NE 7 2785 2785 785 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 48 48 NE 7 2785 2785 785 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 46 46 NE 6 2785 2785 785 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 46 46 NE 6 2785 2785 785 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 45 45 NE 6 2785 2785 785 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 43 43 NE 7 2785 2785 785 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 43 43 NE 7 2785 2785 785 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 42 42 NE 7 2785 2785 785 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst