Detailed Predictions for: Warner Springs
Launch Altitude (f): 2000
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

20 JUL 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Fri 62 62 N 1 2589 2589 589 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 64 64 NW 1 2589 2589 589 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 67 67 W 1 2589 2589 589 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 72 73 SW 2 3249 2699 699 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 76 79 SW 2 4621 4039 2039 Blue 5
10 AM Fri 81 85 SW 3 6306 5448 3448 Blue 11
11 AM Fri 84 89 SW 8 7463 6551 4551 Blue 15
12 Noon Fri 86 92 SW 9 9023 7367 5367 Blue 18
1 PM Fri 86 92 SW 9 9023 7367 5367 Blue 18
2 PM Fri 87 92 SW 10 9023 7367 5367 Blue 18
3 PM Fri 86 90 SW 12 8133 6749 4749 Blue 16
4 PM Fri 85 88 SW 12 6910 6277 4277 Blue 14
5 PM Fri 83 84 SW 12 6029 5168 3168 Blue 10
6 PM Fri 80 80 W 9 4793 4293 2293 Blue 6
7 PM Fri 77 77 W 9 4300 3467 1467 Blue 3
8 PM Fri 73 73 W 3 3249 2699 699 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 70 70 W 3 2697 2589 589 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 68 68 W 2 2589 2589 589 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 67 67 W 1 2589 2589 589 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 65 65 W 1 2589 2589 589 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 64 64 W 1 2589 2589 589 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 63 63 NW 1 2589 2589 589 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 62 62 NW 1 2589 2589 589 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 62 62 NW 1 2589 2589 589 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 62 62 N 1 2589 2589 589 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 64 64 N 1 2589 2589 589 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 68 68 NW 1 2589 2589 589 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 72 73 W 2 3249 2699 699 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 77 79 W 2 4621 4039 2039 Blue 5
10 AM Sat 82 86 W 3 6581 5726 3726 Blue 12
11 AM Sat 86 91 SW 8 8683 6893 4893 Blue 17
12 Noon Sat 88 94 SW 8 9694 8622 6622 Blue 20
1 PM Sat 88 94 SW 9 9694 8622 6622 Blue 20
2 PM Sat 89 95 SW 12 10034 8959 6959 Blue 21
3 PM Sat 88 93 SW 12 9360 8028 6028 Blue 19
4 PM Sat 87 90 SW 12 8133 6749 4749 Blue 16
5 PM Sat 84 86 SW 10 6581 5726 3726 Blue 12
6 PM Sat 81 81 SW 9 5188 4453 2453 Blue 7
7 PM Sat 77 77 W 9 4300 3467 1467 Blue 3
8 PM Sat 73 73 SW 5 3249 2699 699 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 70 70 W 2 2697 2589 589 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 68 68 W 2 2589 2589 589 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 66 66 NW 1 2589 2589 589 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 65 65 N 1 2589 2589 589 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 64 64 N 2 2589 2589 589 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 64 64 N 3 2589 2589 589 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 63 63 N 3 2589 2589 589 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 62 62 N 3 2589 2589 589 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 63 63 N 5 2589 2589 589 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 66 66 N 6 2589 2589 589 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 70 70 N 3 2697 2589 589 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 75 76 NW 3 4048 3248 1248 Blue 2
9 AM Sun 80 82 NW 5 5470 4613 2613 Blue 8
10 AM Sun 85 89 W 6 7463 6551 4551 Blue 15
11 AM Sun 89 95 W 7 10034 8959 6959 Blue 21
12 Noon Sun 92 99 SW 8 11877 10298 8298 White 25
1 PM Sun 93 100 W 7 12086 10642 8642 White 26
2 PM Sun 93 100 W 9 12086 10642 8642 White 26
3 PM Sun 94 100 W 9 12086 10642 8642 White 26
4 PM Sun 92 96 W 9 10378 9293 7293 Blue 22
5 PM Sun 90 92 W 8 9023 7367 5367 Blue 18
6 PM Sun 87 88 W 6 6910 6277 4277 Blue 14
7 PM Sun 84 84 W 5 6029 5168 3168 Blue 10
8 PM Sun 80 80 W 3 4793 4293 2293 Blue 6
9 PM Sun 76 76 W 2 4048 3248 1248 Blue 2
10 PM Sun 73 73 NW 2 3249 2699 699 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 71 71 N 1 2882 2589 589 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 70 70 N 2 2697 2589 589 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 70 70 N 2 2697 2589 589 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 70 70 N 3 2697 2589 589 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 69 69 N 3 2589 2589 589 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 68 68 N 5 2589 2589 589 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 69 69 N 5 2589 2589 589 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 74 74 N 5 3471 2882 882 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 80 80 N 5 4793 4293 2293 Blue 6
8 AM Mon 87 88 S 1 6910 6277 4277 Blue 14
9 AM Mon 93 95 S 1 10034 8959 6959 Blue 21
10 AM Mon 97 101 S 1 12294 10988 8988 White 27
11 AM Mon 100 106 S 5 13323 13323 11323 White 32
12 Noon Mon 101 108 S 5 13732 13732 11732 White 34
1 PM Mon 101 109 S 5 13936 13936 11936 White 35
2 PM Mon 101 108 SW 10 13732 13732 11732 White 34
3 PM Mon 100 106 SW 10 13323 13323 11323 White 32
4 PM Mon 99 103 SW 10 12707 12707 10707 White 29
5 PM Mon 97 99 W 12 11877 10298 8298 White 25
6 PM Mon 94 95 W 12 10034 8959 6959 Blue 21
7 PM Mon 90 90 W 12 8133 6749 4749 Blue 16
8 PM Mon 85 85 SW 5 6306 5448 3448 Blue 11
9 PM Mon 80 80 SW 5 4793 4293 2293 Blue 6
10 PM Mon 76 76 SW 5 4048 3248 1248 Blue 2
11 PM Mon 74 74 N 2 3471 2882 882 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 73 73 N 2 3249 2699 699 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 73 73 N 2 3249 2699 699 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 72 72 N 5 3066 2589 589 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 71 71 N 5 2882 2589 589 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 70 70 N 5 2697 2589 589 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 71 71 N 5 2882 2589 589 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 75 75 N 5 3761 3065 1065 Blue 1
7 AM Tue 80 80 N 5 4793 4293 2293 Blue 6
8 AM Tue 87 88 NW 3 6910 6277 4277 Blue 14
9 AM Tue 93 95 NW 3 10034 8959 6959 Blue 21
10 AM Tue 98 102 NW 3 12501 11614 9614 White 28
11 AM Tue 101 107 SW 9 13527 13527 11527 White 33
12 Noon Tue 103 110 SW 9 14138 14138 12138 White 36
1 PM Tue 103 110 SW 9 14138 14138 12138 White 36
2 PM Tue 103 110 SW 14 14138 14138 12138 White 36
3 PM Tue 102 107 SW 14 13527 13527 11527 White 33
4 PM Tue 102 106 SW 14 13323 13323 11323 White 32
5 PM Tue 100 102 W 13 12501 11614 9614 White 28
6 PM Tue 96 97 W 13 10728 9623 7623 Blue 23
7 PM Tue 92 92 W 13 9023 7367 5367 Blue 18
8 PM Tue 87 87 SW 3 6766 6002 4002 Blue 13
9 PM Tue 83 83 SW 3 5750 4772 2772 Blue 9
10 PM Tue 79 79 SW 3 4621 4039 2039 Blue 5
11 PM Tue 77 77 N 3 4300 3467 1467 Blue 3
12 Midnight Wed 75 75 N 3 3761 3065 1065 Blue 1
1 AM Wed 75 75 N 3 3761 3065 1065 Blue 1
2 AM Wed 74 74 N 6 3471 2882 882 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 73 73 N 6 3249 2699 699 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 72 72 N 6 3066 2589 589 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 73 73 N 6 3249 2699 699 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 77 77 N 6 4300 3467 1467 Blue 3
7 AM Wed 83 83 N 6 5750 4772 2772 Blue 9
8 AM Wed 89 90 W 2 8133 6749 4749 Blue 16
9 AM Wed 94 96 W 2 10378 9293 7293 Blue 22
10 AM Wed 98 102 W 2 12501 11614 9614 White 28
11 AM Wed 100 106 SW 9 13323 13323 11323 White 32
12 Noon Wed 101 108 SW 9 13732 13732 11732 White 34
1 PM Wed 101 109 SW 9 13936 13936 11936 White 35
2 PM Wed 100 107 SW 15 13527 13527 11527 White 33
3 PM Wed 100 106 SW 15 13323 13323 11323 White 32
4 PM Wed 98 102 SW 15 12501 11614 9614 White 28
5 PM Wed 96 98 W 12 11077 9957 7957 Blue 24
6 PM Wed 93 94 W 12 9694 8622 6622 Blue 20
7 PM Wed 88 88 W 12 6910 6277 4277 Blue 14
8 PM Wed 84 84 SW 3 6029 5168 3168 Blue 10
9 PM Wed 80 80 SW 3 4793 4293 2293 Blue 6
10 PM Wed 77 77 SW 3 4300 3467 1467 Blue 3
11 PM Wed 74 74 N 2 3471 2882 882 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 73 73 N 2 3249 2699 699 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 73 73 N 2 3249 2699 699 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 72 72 N 6 3066 2589 589 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 71 71 N 6 2882 2589 589 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 70 70 N 6 2697 2589 589 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst