Detailed Predictions for: Warner Springs
Launch Altitude (f): 2000
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

17 NOV 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Sat 43 43 N 6 2736 2736 736 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 42 42 N 5 2736 2736 736 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 42 42 N 5 2736 2736 736 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 44 44 N 6 2736 2736 736 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 52 52 N 2 2736 2736 736 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 58 59 N 1 3033 2736 736 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 63 65 SW 3 4955 3847 1847 Blue 5
11 AM Sat 67 69 SW 5 6784 5391 3391 Blue 9
12 Noon Sat 68 70 SW 7 7219 5847 3847 Blue 10
1 PM Sat 67 69 SW 9 6784 5391 3391 Blue 9
2 PM Sat 68 69 SW 9 6784 5391 3391 Blue 9
3 PM Sat 67 67 SW 9 5889 4482 2482 Blue 7
4 PM Sat 65 65 W 7 4955 3847 1847 Blue 5
5 PM Sat 60 60 SW 6 3275 2736 736 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 56 56 S 3 2736 2736 736 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 54 54 E 2 2736 2736 736 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 51 51 NE 2 2736 2736 736 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 49 49 NE 3 2736 2736 736 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 48 48 N 3 2736 2736 736 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 47 47 NE 3 2736 2736 736 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 46 46 N 2 2736 2736 736 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 45 45 N 1 2736 2736 736 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 45 45 N 1 2736 2736 736 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 43 43 N 2 2736 2736 736 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 43 43 NE 1 2736 2736 736 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 42 42 NE 2 2736 2736 736 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 42 42 E 5 2736 2736 736 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 44 44 E 8 2736 2736 736 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 52 52 E 6 2736 2736 736 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 58 59 E 9 3033 2736 736 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 63 64 E 10 4504 3589 1589 Blue 4
11 AM Sun 67 69 E 10 6784 5391 3391 Blue 9
12 Noon Sun 68 70 E 10 7219 5847 3847 Blue 10
1 PM Sun 67 69 E 10 6784 5391 3391 Blue 9
2 PM Sun 68 69 E 10 6784 5391 3391 Blue 9
3 PM Sun 67 67 E 10 5889 4482 2482 Blue 7
4 PM Sun 65 65 E 10 4955 3847 1847 Blue 5
5 PM Sun 60 60 E 10 3275 2736 736 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 56 56 E 10 2736 2736 736 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 54 54 E 12 2736 2736 736 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 51 51 E 13 2736 2736 736 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 49 49 E 13 2736 2736 736 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 48 48 E 12 2736 2736 736 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 47 47 E 12 2736 2736 736 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 46 46 E 12 2736 2736 736 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 45 45 E 13 2736 2736 736 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 45 45 E 13 2736 2736 736 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 43 43 E 13 2736 2736 736 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 43 43 E 10 2736 2736 736 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 42 42 E 10 2736 2736 736 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 42 42 E 10 2736 2736 736 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 44 44 E 12 2736 2736 736 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 52 52 E 12 2736 2736 736 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 58 59 E 12 3033 2736 736 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 62 63 E 15 4134 3271 1271 Blue 3
11 AM Mon 66 67 E 15 5889 4482 2482 Blue 7
12 Noon Mon 67 69 E 15 6784 5391 3391 Blue 9
1 PM Mon 66 67 E 14 5889 4482 2482 Blue 7
2 PM Mon 67 68 E 14 6341 4928 2928 Blue 8
3 PM Mon 66 66 E 14 5427 4124 2124 Blue 6
4 PM Mon 64 64 E 13 4504 3589 1589 Blue 4
5 PM Mon 60 60 E 13 3275 2736 736 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 55 55 E 13 2736 2736 736 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 53 53 E 10 2736 2736 736 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 50 50 E 10 2736 2736 736 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 48 48 E 10 2736 2736 736 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 47 47 E 13 2736 2736 736 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 46 46 E 13 2736 2736 736 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 45 45 E 13 2736 2736 736 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 44 44 E 10 2736 2736 736 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 44 44 E 10 2736 2736 736 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 42 42 E 10 2736 2736 736 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 42 42 E 9 2736 2736 736 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 41 41 E 9 2736 2736 736 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 41 41 E 9 2736 2736 736 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 43 43 E 7 2736 2736 736 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 50 50 E 7 2736 2736 736 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 55 55 E 7 2736 2736 736 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 60 62 S 3 3854 3032 1032 Blue 2
11 AM Tue 63 65 S 3 4955 3847 1847 Blue 5
12 Noon Tue 64 66 S 3 5427 4124 2124 Blue 6
1 PM Tue 64 66 SW 5 5427 4124 2124 Blue 6
2 PM Tue 64 65 SW 5 4955 3847 1847 Blue 5
3 PM Tue 63 63 SW 5 4134 3271 1271 Blue 3
4 PM Tue 61 61 W 7 3593 2822 822 Blue 1
5 PM Tue 57 57 W 7 2736 2736 736 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 54 54 W 7 2736 2736 736 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 51 51 E 1 2736 2736 736 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 49 49 E 1 2736 2736 736 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 47 47 E 1 2736 2736 736 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 46 46 N 5 2736 2736 736 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 46 46 N 5 2736 2736 736 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 45 45 N 5 2736 2736 736 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 44 44 N 3 2736 2736 736 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 43 43 N 3 2736 2736 736 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 42 42 N 3 2736 2736 736 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 42 42 NE 2 2736 2736 736 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 41 41 NE 2 2736 2736 736 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 41 41 NE 2 2736 2736 736 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 42 42 E 5 2736 2736 736 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 49 49 E 5 2736 2736 736 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 54 55 E 5 2736 2736 736 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 57 58 SE 2 2821 2736 736 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 60 61 SE 2 3593 2822 822 Blue 1
12 Noon Wed 61 62 SE 2 3854 3032 1032 Blue 2
1 PM Wed 61 62 S 5 3854 3032 1032 Blue 2
2 PM Wed 61 61 S 5 3593 2822 822 Blue 1
3 PM Wed 60 60 S 5 3275 2736 736 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 59 59 S 2 3033 2736 736 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 56 56 S 2 2736 2736 736 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 52 52 S 2 2736 2736 736 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 50 50 W 6 2736 2736 736 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 49 49 W 6 2736 2736 736 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 47 47 W 6 2736 2736 736 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 46 46 N 1 2736 2736 736 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 46 46 N 1 2736 2736 736 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 45 45 N 1 2736 2736 736 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 44 44 NW 5 2736 2736 736 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 44 44 NW 5 2736 2736 736 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 43 43 NW 5 2736 2736 736 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 43 43 NW 6 2736 2736 736 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 42 42 NW 6 2736 2736 736 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 42 42 NW 6 2736 2736 736 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 44 44 N 3 2736 2736 736 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 49 49 N 3 2736 2736 736 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 54 54 N 3 2736 2736 736 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 57 57 NW 8 2736 2736 736 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 60 61 NW 8 3593 2822 822 Blue 1
12 Noon Thu 61 62 NW 8 3854 3032 1032 Blue 2
1 PM Thu 61 61 NW 10 3593 2822 822 Blue 1
2 PM Thu 61 61 NW 10 3593 2822 822 Blue 1
3 PM Thu 60 60 NW 10 3275 2736 736 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 58 58 NW 9 2821 2736 736 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 55 55 NW 9 2736 2736 736 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 52 52 NW 9 2736 2736 736 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 49 49 N 3 2736 2736 736 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 47 47 N 3 2736 2736 736 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 46 46 N 3 2736 2736 736 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 45 45 N 8 2736 2736 736 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 44 44 N 8 2736 2736 736 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 44 44 N 8 2736 2736 736 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 42 42 N 7 2736 2736 736 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 42 42 N 7 2736 2736 736 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 41 41 N 7 2736 2736 736 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst