Detailed Predictions for: Warner Springs
Launch Altitude (f): 2000
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

18 MAY 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 45 45 N 5 2536 2536 536 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 45 45 N 5 2536 2536 536 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 44 44 N 2 2536 2536 536 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 50 51 W 2 2895 2536 536 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 55 58 W 2 4453 4084 2084 Blue 6
10 AM Sat 61 66 W 3 6420 5397 3397 Blue 14
11 AM Sat 64 69 SW 7 7092 6372 4372 Blue 17
12 Noon Sat 66 72 SW 9 7401 7078 5078 Blue 20
1 PM Sat 66 72 SW 10 7401 7078 5078 Blue 20
2 PM Sat 66 71 SW 13 7298 6976 4976 Blue 19
3 PM Sat 66 70 SW 14 7195 6801 4801 Blue 18
4 PM Sat 66 69 SW 14 7092 6372 4372 Blue 17
5 PM Sat 65 66 SW 14 6420 5397 3397 Blue 14
6 PM Sat 63 63 SW 13 5408 5051 3051 Blue 11
7 PM Sat 60 60 SW 12 5058 4183 2183 Blue 8
8 PM Sat 56 56 SW 7 4135 3612 1612 Blue 4
9 PM Sat 53 53 SW 7 3620 2683 683 Blue 1
10 PM Sat 52 52 SW 6 3203 2536 536 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 51 51 SW 7 2895 2536 536 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 50 50 SW 7 2681 2536 536 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 49 49 SW 7 2536 2536 536 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 49 49 W 7 2536 2536 536 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 48 48 W 7 2536 2536 536 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 47 47 W 7 2536 2536 536 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 46 46 W 5 2536 2536 536 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 47 47 W 6 2536 2536 536 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 45 45 W 6 2536 2536 536 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 47 47 SW 7 2536 2536 536 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 50 50 SW 8 2681 2536 536 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 52 53 SW 10 3620 2683 683 Blue 1
11 AM Sun 54 57 SW 12 4185 3972 1972 Blue 5
12 Noon Sun 55 58 SW 13 4453 4084 2084 Blue 6
1 PM Sun 55 58 W 14 4453 4084 2084 Blue 6
2 PM Sun 55 58 W 15 4453 4084 2084 Blue 6
3 PM Sun 54 56 W 16 4135 3612 1612 Blue 4
4 PM Sun 54 55 W 17 4085 3200 1200 Blue 3
5 PM Sun 54 55 W 17 4085 3200 1200 Blue 3
6 PM Sun 53 53 W 15 3620 2683 683 Blue 1
7 PM Sun 52 52 W 14 3203 2536 536 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 49 49 W 12 2536 2536 536 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 48 48 W 12 2536 2536 536 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 47 47 W 12 2536 2536 536 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 47 47 W 12 2536 2536 536 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 47 47 W 10 2536 2536 536 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 46 46 W 10 2536 2536 536 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 46 46 W 10 2536 2536 536 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 46 46 W 9 2536 2536 536 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 45 45 W 9 2536 2536 536 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 45 45 W 9 2536 2536 536 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 45 45 W 9 2536 2536 536 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 44 44 W 10 2536 2536 536 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 47 47 W 12 2536 2536 536 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 50 51 W 13 2895 2536 536 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 53 55 W 14 4085 3200 1200 Blue 3
11 AM Mon 56 60 W 15 5058 4183 2183 Blue 8
12 Noon Mon 57 62 W 16 5280 4817 2817 Blue 10
1 PM Mon 57 62 W 16 5280 4817 2817 Blue 10
2 PM Mon 57 61 W 16 5169 4434 2434 Blue 9
3 PM Mon 56 59 W 16 4840 4133 2133 Blue 7
4 PM Mon 56 58 W 16 4453 4084 2084 Blue 6
5 PM Mon 56 57 W 16 4185 3972 1972 Blue 5
6 PM Mon 55 55 W 15 4085 3200 1200 Blue 3
7 PM Mon 53 53 W 14 3620 2683 683 Blue 1
8 PM Mon 50 50 W 13 2681 2536 536 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 49 49 W 12 2536 2536 536 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 48 48 W 9 2536 2536 536 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 48 48 W 8 2536 2536 536 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 47 47 W 8 2536 2536 536 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 47 47 SW 9 2536 2536 536 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 46 46 SW 9 2536 2536 536 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 46 46 SW 12 2536 2536 536 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 45 45 SW 13 2536 2536 536 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 45 45 SW 14 2536 2536 536 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 45 45 SW 14 2536 2536 536 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 44 44 SW 14 2536 2536 536 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 46 46 SW 16 2536 2536 536 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 47 48 SW 16 2536 2536 536 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 49 51 SW 16 2895 2536 536 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 50 52 W 20 3203 2536 536 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 51 53 W 20 3620 2683 683 Blue 1
1 PM Tue 51 53 W 20 3620 2683 683 Blue 1
2 PM Tue 51 53 W 22 3620 2683 683 Blue 1
3 PM Tue 51 52 W 22 3203 2536 536 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 51 52 W 22 3203 2536 536 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 50 50 W 23 2681 2536 536 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 50 50 W 23 2681 2536 536 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 49 49 W 23 2536 2536 536 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 48 48 W 16 2536 2536 536 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 47 47 W 16 2536 2536 536 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 46 46 W 16 2536 2536 536 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 46 46 SW 9 2536 2536 536 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 46 46 SW 9 2536 2536 536 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 45 45 SW 9 2536 2536 536 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 45 45 W 7 2536 2536 536 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 45 45 W 7 2536 2536 536 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 45 45 W 7 2536 2536 536 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 44 44 SW 5 2536 2536 536 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 44 44 SW 5 2536 2536 536 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 44 44 SW 5 2536 2536 536 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 47 47 SW 2 2536 2536 536 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 51 52 SW 2 3203 2536 536 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 54 56 SW 2 4135 3612 1612 Blue 4
11 AM Wed 56 60 W 9 5058 4183 2183 Blue 8
12 Noon Wed 58 63 W 9 5408 5051 3051 Blue 11
1 PM Wed 58 63 W 9 5408 5051 3051 Blue 11
2 PM Wed 58 62 W 12 5280 4817 2817 Blue 10
3 PM Wed 58 61 W 12 5169 4434 2434 Blue 9
4 PM Wed 57 59 W 12 4840 4133 2133 Blue 7
5 PM Wed 57 58 W 13 4453 4084 2084 Blue 6
6 PM Wed 56 56 W 13 4135 3612 1612 Blue 4
7 PM Wed 54 54 W 13 3976 2896 896 Blue 2
8 PM Wed 51 51 SW 6 2895 2536 536 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 50 50 SW 6 2681 2536 536 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 49 49 SW 6 2536 2536 536 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 48 48 N 5 2536 2536 536 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 48 48 N 5 2536 2536 536 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 48 48 N 5 2536 2536 536 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 47 47 N 3 2536 2536 536 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 47 47 N 3 2536 2536 536 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 46 46 N 3 2536 2536 536 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 46 46 N 9 2536 2536 536 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 46 46 N 9 2536 2536 536 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 45 45 N 9 2536 2536 536 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 50 51 NE 6 2895 2536 536 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 56 58 NE 6 4453 4084 2084 Blue 6
10 AM Thu 61 65 NE 6 5977 5272 3272 Blue 13
11 AM Thu 64 68 S 5 6989 5934 3934 Blue 16
12 Noon Thu 66 71 S 5 7298 6976 4976 Blue 19
1 PM Thu 66 71 S 5 7298 6976 4976 Blue 19
2 PM Thu 66 71 W 13 7298 6976 4976 Blue 19
3 PM Thu 67 71 W 13 7298 6976 4976 Blue 19
4 PM Thu 66 68 W 13 6989 5934 3934 Blue 16
5 PM Thu 65 66 W 9 6420 5397 3397 Blue 14
6 PM Thu 63 63 W 9 5408 5051 3051 Blue 11
7 PM Thu 60 60 W 9 5058 4183 2183 Blue 8
8 PM Thu 56 56 SW 7 4135 3612 1612 Blue 4
9 PM Thu 53 53 SW 7 3620 2683 683 Blue 1
10 PM Thu 52 52 SW 7 3203 2536 536 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 51 51 N 1 2895 2536 536 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 50 50 N 1 2681 2536 536 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 49 49 N 1 2536 2536 536 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 49 49 N 2 2536 2536 536 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 48 48 N 2 2536 2536 536 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 47 47 N 2 2536 2536 536 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst