Detailed Predictions for: Warner Springs
Launch Altitude (f): 2000
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

22 APR 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 47 47 N 6 2680 2680 680 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 51 51 N 5 2680 2680 680 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 56 56 NW 3 2680 2680 680 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 62 63 NW 2 2680 2680 680 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 68 70 W 2 3559 2680 680 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 74 78 W 2 11125 6711 4711 Blue 6
11 AM Sun 78 83 SW 3 12111 11745 9745 Blue 11
12 Noon Sun 80 86 SW 6 12575 12064 10064 Blue 14
1 PM Sun 80 86 SW 8 12575 12064 10064 Blue 14
2 PM Sun 81 86 SW 10 12575 12064 10064 Blue 14
3 PM Sun 80 84 SW 12 12266 11831 9831 Blue 12
4 PM Sun 78 80 SW 12 11770 8851 6851 Blue 8
5 PM Sun 75 76 SW 12 7637 5780 3780 Blue 4
6 PM Sun 68 68 SW 10 2680 2680 680 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 62 62 SW 8 2680 2680 680 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 56 56 S 1 2680 2680 680 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 52 52 SE 1 2680 2680 680 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 50 50 N 1 2680 2680 680 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 50 50 N 5 2680 2680 680 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 49 49 N 5 2680 2680 680 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 48 48 N 5 2680 2680 680 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 47 47 N 5 2680 2680 680 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 46 46 N 5 2680 2680 680 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 45 45 N 5 2680 2680 680 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 46 46 N 6 2680 2680 680 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 49 49 N 5 2680 2680 680 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 54 54 N 5 2680 2680 680 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 60 61 W 1 2680 2680 680 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 66 69 W 2 2680 2680 680 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 72 77 W 3 9116 6176 4176 Blue 5
11 AM Mon 77 83 W 5 12111 11745 9745 Blue 11
12 Noon Mon 79 86 W 6 12575 12064 10064 Blue 14
1 PM Mon 81 88 W 7 13370 12372 10372 Blue 16
2 PM Mon 80 86 SW 9 12575 12064 10064 Blue 14
3 PM Mon 81 86 SW 10 12575 12064 10064 Blue 14
4 PM Mon 79 82 SW 10 11956 11623 9623 Blue 10
5 PM Mon 76 77 SW 9 9116 6176 4176 Blue 5
6 PM Mon 70 70 SW 7 3559 2680 680 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 64 64 S 5 2680 2680 680 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 58 58 S 2 2680 2680 680 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 54 54 SW 1 2680 2680 680 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 52 52 NW 2 2680 2680 680 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 51 51 N 3 2680 2680 680 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 50 50 N 5 2680 2680 680 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 49 49 N 5 2680 2680 680 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 47 47 N 6 2680 2680 680 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 46 46 N 6 2680 2680 680 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 45 45 N 6 2680 2680 680 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 46 46 N 6 2680 2680 680 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 50 50 N 5 2680 2680 680 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 55 55 N 3 2680 2680 680 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 62 63 W 2 2680 2680 680 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 68 70 W 2 3559 2680 680 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 74 78 SW 2 11125 6711 4711 Blue 6
11 AM Tue 78 83 S 5 12111 11745 9745 Blue 11
12 Noon Tue 80 85 SE 7 12421 11917 9917 Blue 13
1 PM Tue 80 85 S 6 12421 11917 9917 Blue 13
2 PM Tue 81 86 SW 9 12575 12064 10064 Blue 14
3 PM Tue 79 83 SW 10 12111 11745 9745 Blue 11
4 PM Tue 77 79 SW 10 11681 7521 5521 Blue 7
5 PM Tue 73 74 SW 9 6208 4474 2474 Blue 2
6 PM Tue 67 67 SW 8 2680 2680 680 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 61 61 SW 6 2680 2680 680 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 55 55 S 2 2680 2680 680 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 51 51 S 2 2680 2680 680 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 48 48 S 2 2680 2680 680 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 48 48 NW 1 2680 2680 680 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 48 48 NW 1 2680 2680 680 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 49 49 NW 1 2680 2680 680 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 48 48 SW 2 2680 2680 680 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 45 45 SW 2 2680 2680 680 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 42 42 SW 2 2680 2680 680 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 42 42 N 5 2680 2680 680 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 46 46 N 5 2680 2680 680 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 53 53 N 5 2680 2680 680 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 60 61 NW 7 2680 2680 680 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 67 69 NW 7 2680 2680 680 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 72 75 NW 7 6814 5329 3329 Blue 3
11 AM Wed 74 79 SW 9 11681 7521 5521 Blue 7
12 Noon Wed 76 82 SW 9 11956 11623 9623 Blue 10
1 PM Wed 76 82 SW 9 11956 11623 9623 Blue 10
2 PM Wed 77 83 W 12 12111 11745 9745 Blue 11
3 PM Wed 77 81 W 12 11856 10082 8082 Blue 9
4 PM Wed 76 79 W 12 11681 7521 5521 Blue 7
5 PM Wed 74 75 W 12 6814 5329 3329 Blue 3
6 PM Wed 69 69 W 12 2680 2680 680 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 62 62 W 12 2680 2680 680 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 56 56 W 7 2680 2680 680 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 52 52 W 7 2680 2680 680 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 50 50 W 7 2680 2680 680 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 49 49 NW 2 2680 2680 680 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 48 48 NW 2 2680 2680 680 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 47 47 NW 2 2680 2680 680 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 46 46 N 2 2680 2680 680 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 44 44 N 2 2680 2680 680 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 42 42 N 2 2680 2680 680 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 42 42 N 5 2680 2680 680 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 46 46 N 5 2680 2680 680 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 51 51 N 5 2680 2680 680 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 57 58 NW 7 2680 2680 680 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 63 65 NW 7 2680 2680 680 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 68 72 NW 7 5363 2680 680 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 72 77 W 9 9116 6176 4176 Blue 5
12 Noon Thu 73 79 W 9 11681 7521 5521 Blue 7
1 PM Thu 74 81 W 9 11856 10082 8082 Blue 9
2 PM Thu 74 80 W 12 11770 8851 6851 Blue 8
3 PM Thu 75 79 W 12 11681 7521 5521 Blue 7
4 PM Thu 75 78 W 12 11125 6711 4711 Blue 6
5 PM Thu 73 74 W 13 6208 4474 2474 Blue 2
6 PM Thu 68 68 W 13 2680 2680 680 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 62 62 W 13 2680 2680 680 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 56 56 W 8 2680 2680 680 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 52 52 W 8 2680 2680 680 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 50 50 W 8 2680 2680 680 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 49 49 W 2 2680 2680 680 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 48 48 W 2 2680 2680 680 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 47 47 W 2 2680 2680 680 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 45 45 NW 1 2680 2680 680 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 44 44 NW 1 2680 2680 680 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 43 43 NW 1 2680 2680 680 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 44 44 N 3 2680 2680 680 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 47 47 N 3 2680 2680 680 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 52 52 N 3 2680 2680 680 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 57 58 NW 7 2680 2680 680 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 63 65 NW 7 2680 2680 680 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 67 71 NW 7 4517 2680 680 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 71 77 W 10 9116 6176 4176 Blue 5
12 Noon Fri 74 81 W 10 11856 10082 8082 Blue 9
1 PM Fri 76 83 W 10 12111 11745 9745 Blue 11
2 PM Fri 76 82 W 13 11956 11623 9623 Blue 10
3 PM Fri 75 80 W 13 11770 8851 6851 Blue 8
4 PM Fri 74 77 W 13 9116 6176 4176 Blue 5
5 PM Fri 70 71 W 13 4517 2680 680 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 66 66 W 13 2680 2680 680 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 60 60 W 13 2680 2680 680 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 55 55 W 7 2680 2680 680 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 52 52 W 7 2680 2680 680 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 49 49 W 7 2680 2680 680 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 47 47 W 1 2680 2680 680 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 46 46 W 1 2680 2680 680 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 46 46 W 1 2680 2680 680 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 44 44 NW 0 2680 2680 680 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 43 43 NW 0 2680 2680 680 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 42 42 NW 0 2680 2680 680 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst