Detailed Predictions for: Warner Springs
Launch Altitude (f): 2000
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

21 SEP 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Fri 54 54 SE 2 2953 2953 953 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 52 52 E 2 2953 2953 953 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 52 52 E 2 2953 2953 953 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 61 61 SE 1 2953 2953 953 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 70 72 S 2 2953 2953 953 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 79 82 S 2 4280 3638 1638 Blue 6
11 AM Fri 84 88 S 3 9123 5560 3560 Blue 12
12 Noon Fri 88 93 SW 5 11992 9861 7861 Blue 17
1 PM Fri 89 95 SW 8 12120 10617 8617 Blue 19
2 PM Fri 88 93 SW 12 11992 9861 7861 Blue 17
3 PM Fri 89 93 SW 12 11992 9861 7861 Blue 17
4 PM Fri 88 90 SW 10 9951 8508 6508 Blue 14
5 PM Fri 87 88 W 8 9123 5560 3560 Blue 12
6 PM Fri 84 84 W 7 5395 4061 2061 Blue 8
7 PM Fri 79 79 W 3 3643 3195 1195 Blue 3
8 PM Fri 75 75 N 5 3104 2953 953 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 72 72 N 6 2953 2953 953 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 68 68 NE 7 2953 2953 953 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 65 65 NE 6 2953 2953 953 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 63 63 NE 5 2953 2953 953 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 62 62 NE 3 2953 2953 953 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 60 60 E 2 2953 2953 953 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 59 59 E 2 2953 2953 953 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 58 58 NE 3 2953 2953 953 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 57 57 NE 3 2953 2953 953 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 56 56 NE 3 2953 2953 953 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 55 55 E 3 2953 2953 953 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 63 63 SE 1 2953 2953 953 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 72 73 S 1 2953 2953 953 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 80 83 SE 7 4591 3850 1850 Blue 7
11 AM Sat 86 90 SE 6 9951 8508 6508 Blue 14
12 Noon Sat 89 94 S 6 12056 10261 8261 Blue 18
1 PM Sat 90 96 SW 7 12184 10967 8967 Blue 20
2 PM Sat 89 94 SW 9 12056 10261 8261 Blue 18
3 PM Sat 90 94 SW 9 12056 10261 8261 Blue 18
4 PM Sat 89 91 W 8 10355 9041 7041 Blue 15
5 PM Sat 88 89 W 9 9540 6362 4362 Blue 13
6 PM Sat 85 85 W 9 5612 4272 2272 Blue 9
7 PM Sat 79 79 SW 5 3643 3195 1195 Blue 3
8 PM Sat 75 75 N 1 3104 2953 953 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 71 71 N 5 2953 2953 953 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 67 67 N 6 2953 2953 953 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 64 64 N 6 2953 2953 953 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 62 62 N 7 2953 2953 953 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 60 60 N 8 2953 2953 953 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 58 58 N 8 2953 2953 953 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 57 57 N 8 2953 2953 953 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 56 56 N 8 2953 2953 953 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 55 55 N 7 2953 2953 953 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 54 54 N 7 2953 2953 953 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 53 53 N 6 2953 2953 953 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 62 62 NW 2 2953 2953 953 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 71 72 W 2 2953 2953 953 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 79 82 SW 5 4280 3638 1638 Blue 6
11 AM Sun 85 90 SW 10 9951 8508 6508 Blue 14
12 Noon Sun 88 94 SW 13 12056 10261 8261 Blue 18
1 PM Sun 89 95 SW 14 12120 10617 8617 Blue 19
2 PM Sun 88 93 SW 15 11992 9861 7861 Blue 17
3 PM Sun 89 93 SW 14 11992 9861 7861 Blue 17
4 PM Sun 88 90 SW 14 9951 8508 6508 Blue 14
5 PM Sun 86 87 SW 12 8692 4977 2977 Blue 11
6 PM Sun 84 84 SW 9 5395 4061 2061 Blue 8
7 PM Sun 78 78 SW 6 3452 3104 1104 Blue 2
8 PM Sun 74 74 SE 3 3021 2953 953 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 70 70 E 1 2953 2953 953 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 66 66 NE 2 2953 2953 953 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 62 62 N 3 2953 2953 953 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 60 60 N 5 2953 2953 953 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 58 58 N 3 2953 2953 953 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 56 56 N 3 2953 2953 953 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 55 55 N 3 2953 2953 953 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 54 54 N 3 2953 2953 953 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 53 53 N 9 2953 2953 953 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 52 52 N 9 2953 2953 953 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 51 51 N 9 2953 2953 953 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 60 60 N 7 2953 2953 953 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 69 71 N 7 2953 2953 953 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 78 81 N 7 4068 3450 1450 Blue 5
11 AM Mon 84 89 SW 6 9540 6362 4362 Blue 13
12 Noon Mon 87 93 SW 6 11992 9861 7861 Blue 17
1 PM Mon 88 94 SW 6 12056 10261 8261 Blue 18
2 PM Mon 88 94 SW 12 12056 10261 8261 Blue 18
3 PM Mon 88 92 SW 12 10700 9455 7455 Blue 16
4 PM Mon 87 89 SW 12 9540 6362 4362 Blue 13
5 PM Mon 86 87 W 12 8692 4977 2977 Blue 11
6 PM Mon 83 83 W 12 4591 3850 1850 Blue 7
7 PM Mon 77 77 W 12 3324 3020 1020 Blue 1
8 PM Mon 73 73 N 1 2953 2953 953 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 69 69 N 1 2953 2953 953 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 65 65 N 1 2953 2953 953 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 62 62 N 5 2953 2953 953 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 60 60 N 5 2953 2953 953 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 58 58 N 5 2953 2953 953 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 56 56 NE 5 2953 2953 953 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 55 55 NE 5 2953 2953 953 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 54 54 NE 5 2953 2953 953 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 53 53 NE 7 2953 2953 953 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 52 52 NE 7 2953 2953 953 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 51 51 NE 7 2953 2953 953 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 60 60 NE 10 2953 2953 953 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 70 72 NE 10 2953 2953 953 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 79 82 NE 10 4280 3638 1638 Blue 6
11 AM Tue 84 89 E 12 9540 6362 4362 Blue 13
12 Noon Tue 88 94 E 12 12056 10261 8261 Blue 18
1 PM Tue 89 95 E 12 12120 10617 8617 Blue 19
2 PM Tue 89 94 SE 9 12056 10261 8261 Blue 18
3 PM Tue 89 93 SE 9 11992 9861 7861 Blue 17
4 PM Tue 88 90 SE 9 9951 8508 6508 Blue 14
5 PM Tue 87 88 SE 6 9123 5560 3560 Blue 12
6 PM Tue 84 84 SE 6 5395 4061 2061 Blue 8
7 PM Tue 78 78 SE 6 3452 3104 1104 Blue 2
8 PM Tue 74 74 NE 2 3021 2953 953 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 70 70 NE 2 2953 2953 953 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 66 66 NE 2 2953 2953 953 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 63 63 NE 3 2953 2953 953 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 61 61 NE 3 2953 2953 953 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 59 59 NE 3 2953 2953 953 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 57 57 NE 6 2953 2953 953 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 56 56 NE 6 2953 2953 953 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 55 55 NE 6 2953 2953 953 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 54 54 NE 7 2953 2953 953 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 52 52 NE 7 2953 2953 953 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 52 52 NE 7 2953 2953 953 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 61 61 NE 7 2953 2953 953 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 70 72 NE 7 2953 2953 953 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 79 82 NE 7 4280 3638 1638 Blue 6
11 AM Wed 84 89 SE 8 9540 6362 4362 Blue 13
12 Noon Wed 88 94 SE 8 12056 10261 8261 Blue 18
1 PM Wed 89 95 SE 8 12120 10617 8617 Blue 19
2 PM Wed 89 94 SE 6 12056 10261 8261 Blue 18
3 PM Wed 89 93 SE 6 11992 9861 7861 Blue 17
4 PM Wed 88 90 SE 6 9951 8508 6508 Blue 14
5 PM Wed 87 88 SW 10 9123 5560 3560 Blue 12
6 PM Wed 84 84 SW 10 5395 4061 2061 Blue 8
7 PM Wed 79 79 SW 10 3643 3195 1195 Blue 3
8 PM Wed 74 74 NE 1 3021 2953 953 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 71 71 NE 1 2953 2953 953 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 67 67 NE 1 2953 2953 953 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 64 64 N 7 2953 2953 953 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 62 62 N 7 2953 2953 953 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 60 60 N 7 2953 2953 953 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 58 58 N 6 2953 2953 953 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 57 57 N 6 2953 2953 953 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 56 56 N 6 2953 2953 953 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst