Detailed Predictions for: Warner Springs
Launch Altitude (f): 2000
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

18 SEP 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Wed 50 50 E 1 2848 2848 848 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 52 52 E 1 2848 2848 848 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 55 55 E 1 2848 2848 848 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 59 59 S 1 2848 2848 848 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 64 66 SW 2 3145 2903 903 Blue 2
10 AM Wed 69 72 SW 2 4347 3569 1569 Blue 8
11 AM Wed 74 79 SW 6 5463 5140 3140 Blue 15
12 Noon Wed 78 84 SW 8 7706 6063 4063 Blue 20
1 PM Wed 80 86 SW 9 8695 7123 5123 Blue 22
2 PM Wed 80 86 SW 12 8695 7123 5123 Blue 22
3 PM Wed 80 84 SW 12 7706 6063 4063 Blue 20
4 PM Wed 78 81 SW 13 6117 5350 3350 Blue 17
5 PM Wed 75 76 SW 12 5147 4595 2595 Blue 12
6 PM Wed 69 69 SW 10 3572 3145 1145 Blue 5
7 PM Wed 63 63 SW 6 2903 2848 848 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 58 58 SE 3 2848 2848 848 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 55 55 SE 2 2848 2848 848 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 53 53 SE 2 2848 2848 848 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 52 52 N 2 2848 2848 848 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 52 52 N 2 2848 2848 848 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 51 51 NE 2 2848 2848 848 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 50 50 NE 2 2848 2848 848 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 49 49 N 2 2848 2848 848 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 48 48 NE 2 2848 2848 848 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 47 47 NE 2 2848 2848 848 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 48 48 N 2 2848 2848 848 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 50 50 NW 1 2848 2848 848 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 54 54 W 2 2848 2848 848 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 59 61 W 5 2848 2848 848 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 65 68 W 7 3430 3049 1049 Blue 4
11 AM Thu 70 75 SW 9 5042 4336 2336 Blue 11
12 Noon Thu 73 79 SW 12 5463 5140 3140 Blue 15
1 PM Thu 75 82 SW 13 6662 5454 3454 Blue 18
2 PM Thu 74 80 W 14 5760 5245 3245 Blue 16
3 PM Thu 74 79 W 15 5463 5140 3140 Blue 15
4 PM Thu 73 76 SW 15 5147 4595 2595 Blue 12
5 PM Thu 70 71 SW 14 4085 3428 1428 Blue 7
6 PM Thu 65 65 SW 10 3050 2848 848 Blue 1
7 PM Thu 60 60 SW 7 2848 2848 848 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 56 56 S 5 2848 2848 848 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 53 53 SW 3 2848 2848 848 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 52 52 W 2 2848 2848 848 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 51 51 NW 2 2848 2848 848 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 50 50 NW 2 2848 2848 848 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 49 49 N 2 2848 2848 848 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 47 47 N 2 2848 2848 848 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 46 46 N 2 2848 2848 848 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 45 45 N 2 2848 2848 848 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 45 45 N 2 2848 2848 848 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 48 48 N 2 2848 2848 848 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 51 51 N 1 2848 2848 848 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 56 56 N 1 2848 2848 848 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 62 64 NW 2 2971 2848 848 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 69 72 SW 3 4347 3569 1569 Blue 8
11 AM Fri 74 79 S 5 5463 5140 3140 Blue 15
12 Noon Fri 78 84 S 6 7706 6063 4063 Blue 20
1 PM Fri 80 86 S 7 8695 7123 5123 Blue 22
2 PM Fri 82 88 SE 7 9177 8125 6125 Blue 24
3 PM Fri 81 85 SE 8 8207 6600 4600 Blue 21
4 PM Fri 81 84 S 8 7706 6063 4063 Blue 20
5 PM Fri 78 79 S 7 5463 5140 3140 Blue 15
6 PM Fri 72 72 SE 5 4347 3569 1569 Blue 8
7 PM Fri 65 65 E 2 3050 2848 848 Blue 1
8 PM Fri 60 60 E 1 2848 2848 848 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 56 56 E 1 2848 2848 848 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 55 55 NE 3 2848 2848 848 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 55 55 N 5 2848 2848 848 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 55 55 N 3 2848 2848 848 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 55 55 NE 3 2848 2848 848 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 54 54 NE 2 2848 2848 848 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 52 52 NE 2 2848 2848 848 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 51 51 NE 3 2848 2848 848 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 51 51 NE 3 2848 2848 848 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 55 55 NE 3 2848 2848 848 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 60 60 NE 3 2848 2848 848 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 66 66 NE 3 3145 2903 903 Blue 2
9 AM Sat 71 72 NE 3 4347 3569 1569 Blue 8
10 AM Sat 76 79 NE 3 5463 5140 3140 Blue 15
11 AM Sat 79 84 E 8 7706 6063 4063 Blue 20
12 Noon Sat 81 87 E 8 8962 7630 5630 Blue 23
1 PM Sat 82 88 E 8 9177 8125 6125 Blue 24
2 PM Sat 84 90 E 8 9960 8921 6921 Blue 26
3 PM Sat 85 89 E 8 9391 8607 6607 Blue 25
4 PM Sat 84 87 E 8 8962 7630 5630 Blue 23
5 PM Sat 83 84 SE 7 7706 6063 4063 Blue 20
6 PM Sat 77 77 SE 7 5252 4852 2852 Blue 13
7 PM Sat 70 70 SE 7 3821 3286 1286 Blue 6
8 PM Sat 64 64 E 2 2971 2848 848 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 60 60 E 2 2848 2848 848 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 58 58 E 2 2848 2848 848 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 57 57 E 2 2848 2848 848 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 55 55 E 2 2848 2848 848 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 54 54 E 2 2848 2848 848 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 53 53 E 5 2848 2848 848 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 52 52 E 5 2848 2848 848 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 52 52 E 5 2848 2848 848 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 54 54 E 9 2848 2848 848 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 58 58 E 9 2848 2848 848 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 62 62 E 9 2848 2848 848 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 68 68 E 7 3430 3049 1049 Blue 4
9 AM Sun 73 74 E 7 4867 4076 2076 Blue 10
10 AM Sun 78 81 E 7 6117 5350 3350 Blue 17
11 AM Sun 82 86 SE 7 8695 7123 5123 Blue 22
12 Noon Sun 85 90 SE 7 9960 8921 6921 Blue 26
1 PM Sun 85 90 SE 7 9960 8921 6921 Blue 26
2 PM Sun 86 91 SW 12 10675 9134 7134 Blue 27
3 PM Sun 85 89 SW 12 9391 8607 6607 Blue 25
4 PM Sun 83 85 SW 12 8207 6600 4600 Blue 21
5 PM Sun 79 80 SW 10 5760 5245 3245 Blue 16
6 PM Sun 75 75 SW 10 5042 4336 2336 Blue 11
7 PM Sun 69 69 SW 10 3572 3145 1145 Blue 5
8 PM Sun 65 65 NW 2 3050 2848 848 Blue 1
9 PM Sun 62 62 NW 2 2848 2848 848 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 61 61 NW 2 2848 2848 848 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 60 60 E 2 2848 2848 848 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 59 59 E 2 2848 2848 848 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 57 57 E 2 2848 2848 848 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 54 54 S 2 2848 2848 848 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 52 52 S 2 2848 2848 848 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 50 50 S 2 2848 2848 848 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 49 49 NE 2 2848 2848 848 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 50 50 NE 2 2848 2848 848 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 52 52 NE 2 2848 2848 848 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 57 57 SW 2 2848 2848 848 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 62 63 SW 2 2903 2848 848 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 68 71 SW 2 4085 3428 1428 Blue 7
11 AM Mon 73 77 SW 12 5252 4852 2852 Blue 13
12 Noon Mon 76 81 SW 12 6117 5350 3350 Blue 17
1 PM Mon 77 82 SW 12 6662 5454 3454 Blue 18
2 PM Mon 78 82 SW 13 6662 5454 3454 Blue 18
3 PM Mon 80 83 SW 13 7191 5732 3732 Blue 19
4 PM Mon 79 81 SW 13 6117 5350 3350 Blue 17
5 PM Mon 78 79 SW 14 5463 5140 3140 Blue 15
6 PM Mon 72 72 SW 14 4347 3569 1569 Blue 8
7 PM Mon 66 66 SW 14 3145 2903 903 Blue 2
8 PM Mon 59 59 SW 5 2848 2848 848 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 56 56 SW 5 2848 2848 848 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 55 55 SW 5 2848 2848 848 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 54 54 SW 2 2848 2848 848 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 54 54 SW 2 2848 2848 848 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 52 52 SW 2 2848 2848 848 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 51 51 NW 2 2848 2848 848 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 50 50 NW 2 2848 2848 848 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 49 49 NW 2 2848 2848 848 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst