Detailed Predictions for: Warner Springs
Launch Altitude (f): 2000
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Wed 37 37 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Wed 36 36 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Wed 36 36 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Wed 36 36 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Wed 40 40 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Wed 46 46 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Wed 49 49 SW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Wed 53 53 SW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Wed 55 56 SW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Wed 57 57 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Wed 56 56 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Wed 56 56 SW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Wed 55 55 SW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Wed 51 51 SW 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Wed 47 47 SW 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Wed 44 44 SW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Wed 42 42 SW 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Wed 40 40 S 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Wed 40 40 S 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Wed 40 40 E 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Thu 39 39 SE 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Thu 38 38 S 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Thu 38 38 SW 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Thu 37 37 SW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Thu 37 37 SW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Thu 36 36 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 37 37 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 36 36 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 39 39 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 44 44 SW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 47 47 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 50 50 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 52 52 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 54 54 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 53 53 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 54 54 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 52 52 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 49 49 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 45 45 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 43 43 W 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 41 41 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 40 40 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 39 39 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 39 39 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 38 38 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 38 38 SW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 38 38 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 37 37 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 37 37 SW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 36 36 SW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 37 37 W 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 36 36 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 40 40 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 46 46 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 50 51 SW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 54 56 SW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 56 58 W 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 58 60 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 57 58 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 57 57 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 55 55 NW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 51 51 N 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 47 47 NE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 44 44 E 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 42 42 NE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 40 40 E 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 39 39 E 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 39 39 E 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 38 38 NE 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 38 38 NE 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 37 37 NE 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 36 36 NE 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 36 36 NE 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 36 36 NE 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 36 36 NE 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 35 35 E 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 40 40 E 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 47 48 E 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 52 54 E 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 56 58 E 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 59 61 E 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 62 64 E 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 62 63 E 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 61 62 E 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 59 59 E 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 54 54 E 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 49 49 E 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 45 45 E 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 43 43 E 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 41 41 E 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 40 40 E 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 40 40 E 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 39 39 E 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 38 38 E 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 38 38 E 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 37 37 E 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 36 36 E 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 36 36 E 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 36 36 E 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 35 35 E 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 40 40 E 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 48 49 E 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 54 55 E 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 59 61 E 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 62 64 E 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 65 67 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 65 66 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 64 64 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 62 62 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 56 56 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 50 50 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 46 46 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 44 44 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 41 41 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 41 41 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 40 40 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 39 39 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 39 39 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 38 38 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 37 37 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 37 37 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 36 36 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 36 36 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 35 35 NE 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 40 40 NE 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 47 48 NE 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 51 53 NE 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 56 58 NE 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 58 60 NE 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 61 63 NE 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 61 62 NE 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 60 60 NE 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 58 58 NE 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 53 53 NE 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 48 48 NE 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 45 45 NE 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 43 43 NE 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 40 40 NE 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 40 40 E 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 39 39 E 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 38 38 E 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 38 38 E 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 38 38 E 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 36 36 E 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst