Detailed Predictions for: Warner Springs
Launch Altitude (f): 2000
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

21 JUL 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 61 61 NE 1 2907 2907 907 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 60 60 NE 1 2907 2907 907 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 62 62 N 0 2907 2907 907 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 70 71 SW 0 2907 2907 907 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 78 81 SW 1 4489 4086 2086 Blue 8
10 AM Sun 84 89 S 2 5547 5143 3143 Blue 16
11 AM Sun 90 95 S 5 7036 6209 4209 Blue 22
12 Noon Sun 92 98 S 6 9334 7003 5003 Blue 25
1 PM Sun 92 99 SW 8 10794 7741 5741 Blue 26
2 PM Sun 92 98 SW 9 9334 7003 5003 Blue 25
3 PM Sun 92 97 SW 9 8741 6740 4740 Blue 24
4 PM Sun 91 95 SW 9 7036 6209 4209 Blue 22
5 PM Sun 90 92 SW 8 6236 5536 3536 Blue 19
6 PM Sun 88 89 SW 7 5547 5143 3143 Blue 16
7 PM Sun 86 86 SW 6 5151 4747 2747 Blue 13
8 PM Sun 80 80 SW 1 4356 3953 1953 Blue 7
9 PM Sun 76 76 SW 1 3824 3126 1126 Blue 3
10 PM Sun 74 74 SW 1 3394 2907 907 Blue 1
11 PM Sun 71 71 N 1 2907 2907 907 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 68 68 N 1 2907 2907 907 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 66 66 N 1 2907 2907 907 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 65 65 N 1 2907 2907 907 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 63 63 W 1 2907 2907 907 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 62 62 N 0 2907 2907 907 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 61 61 SW 0 2907 2907 907 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 60 60 SW 0 2907 2907 907 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 62 62 SW 0 2907 2907 907 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 70 71 W 0 2907 2907 907 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 78 80 W 1 4356 3953 1953 Blue 7
10 AM Mon 84 88 SW 3 5415 5011 3011 Blue 15
11 AM Mon 90 94 SW 5 6771 5941 3941 Blue 21
12 Noon Mon 92 96 SW 7 8351 6475 4475 Blue 23
1 PM Mon 92 97 SW 8 8741 6740 4740 Blue 24
2 PM Mon 92 96 SW 9 8351 6475 4475 Blue 23
3 PM Mon 92 95 SW 9 7036 6209 4209 Blue 22
4 PM Mon 91 93 SW 9 6504 5672 3672 Blue 20
5 PM Mon 90 91 SW 9 5966 5405 3405 Blue 18
6 PM Mon 89 89 SW 7 5547 5143 3143 Blue 16
7 PM Mon 86 86 W 5 5151 4747 2747 Blue 13
8 PM Mon 81 81 W 3 4489 4086 2086 Blue 8
9 PM Mon 77 77 W 2 3957 3391 1391 Blue 4
10 PM Mon 75 75 N 1 3659 2907 907 Blue 2
11 PM Mon 72 72 N 1 2907 2907 907 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 70 70 N 1 2907 2907 907 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 68 68 N 1 2907 2907 907 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 66 66 N 1 2907 2907 907 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 65 65 N 2 2907 2907 907 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 64 64 NE 2 2907 2907 907 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 63 63 E 2 2907 2907 907 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 62 62 E 1 2907 2907 907 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 64 64 S 0 2907 2907 907 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 71 71 S 0 2907 2907 907 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 78 80 S 1 4356 3953 1953 Blue 7
10 AM Tue 84 87 S 3 5283 4879 2879 Blue 14
11 AM Tue 90 93 SE 5 6504 5672 3672 Blue 20
12 Noon Tue 92 95 SE 6 7036 6209 4209 Blue 22
1 PM Tue 93 97 NE 6 8741 6740 4740 Blue 24
2 PM Tue 92 95 N 6 7036 6209 4209 Blue 22
3 PM Tue 92 95 N 7 7036 6209 4209 Blue 22
4 PM Tue 92 94 N 8 6771 5941 3941 Blue 21
5 PM Tue 91 92 NW 8 6236 5536 3536 Blue 19
6 PM Tue 89 89 NW 6 5547 5143 3143 Blue 16
7 PM Tue 87 87 W 5 5283 4879 2879 Blue 14
8 PM Tue 82 82 SW 2 4622 4218 2218 Blue 9
9 PM Tue 78 78 W 1 4090 3654 1654 Blue 5
10 PM Tue 75 75 N 1 3659 2907 907 Blue 2
11 PM Tue 73 73 NE 1 3127 2907 907 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 71 71 NE 1 2907 2907 907 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 69 69 NE 2 2907 2907 907 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 67 67 NE 2 2907 2907 907 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 66 66 NE 3 2907 2907 907 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 65 65 E 3 2907 2907 907 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 64 64 E 5 2907 2907 907 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 63 63 E 5 2907 2907 907 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 65 65 E 5 2907 2907 907 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 72 73 E 12 3127 2907 907 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 80 82 E 12 4622 4218 2218 Blue 9
10 AM Wed 86 89 E 12 5547 5143 3143 Blue 16
11 AM Wed 91 94 SE 6 6771 5941 3941 Blue 21
12 Noon Wed 93 97 SE 6 8741 6740 4740 Blue 24
1 PM Wed 94 98 SE 6 9334 7003 5003 Blue 25
2 PM Wed 93 97 N 12 8741 6740 4740 Blue 24
3 PM Wed 94 97 N 12 8741 6740 4740 Blue 24
4 PM Wed 92 94 N 12 6771 5941 3941 Blue 21
5 PM Wed 91 92 W 8 6236 5536 3536 Blue 19
6 PM Wed 90 90 W 8 5695 5274 3274 Blue 17
7 PM Wed 87 87 W 8 5283 4879 2879 Blue 14
8 PM Wed 82 82 SW 2 4622 4218 2218 Blue 9
9 PM Wed 78 78 SW 2 4090 3654 1654 Blue 5
10 PM Wed 75 75 SW 2 3659 2907 907 Blue 2
11 PM Wed 72 72 N 1 2907 2907 907 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 70 70 N 1 2907 2907 907 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 68 68 N 1 2907 2907 907 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 67 67 N 2 2907 2907 907 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 65 65 N 2 2907 2907 907 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 64 64 N 2 2907 2907 907 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 63 63 N 2 2907 2907 907 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 62 62 N 2 2907 2907 907 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 64 64 N 2 2907 2907 907 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 71 72 W 0 2907 2907 907 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 79 81 W 0 4489 4086 2086 Blue 8
10 AM Thu 85 88 W 0 5415 5011 3011 Blue 15
11 AM Thu 91 95 W 6 7036 6209 4209 Blue 22
12 Noon Thu 93 98 W 6 9334 7003 5003 Blue 25
1 PM Thu 94 99 W 6 10794 7741 5741 Blue 26
2 PM Thu 93 98 SW 12 9334 7003 5003 Blue 25
3 PM Thu 94 98 SW 12 9334 7003 5003 Blue 25
4 PM Thu 92 95 SW 12 7036 6209 4209 Blue 22
5 PM Thu 91 92 SW 10 6236 5536 3536 Blue 19
6 PM Thu 89 89 SW 10 5547 5143 3143 Blue 16
7 PM Thu 87 87 SW 10 5283 4879 2879 Blue 14
8 PM Thu 82 82 SW 3 4622 4218 2218 Blue 9
9 PM Thu 77 77 SW 3 3957 3391 1391 Blue 4
10 PM Thu 74 74 SW 3 3394 2907 907 Blue 1
11 PM Thu 72 72 NW 2 2907 2907 907 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 70 70 NW 2 2907 2907 907 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 68 68 NW 2 2907 2907 907 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 66 66 NW 2 2907 2907 907 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 64 64 NW 2 2907 2907 907 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 63 63 NW 2 2907 2907 907 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 62 62 N 3 2907 2907 907 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 61 61 N 3 2907 2907 907 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 63 63 N 3 2907 2907 907 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 71 72 NW 1 2907 2907 907 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 79 81 NW 1 4489 4086 2086 Blue 8
10 AM Fri 85 89 NW 1 5547 5143 3143 Blue 16
11 AM Fri 91 97 SW 6 8741 6740 4740 Blue 24
12 Noon Fri 93 100 SW 6 11299 8634 6634 Blue 27
1 PM Fri 94 101 SW 6 12021 9219 7219 Blue 28
2 PM Fri 93 100 W 12 11299 8634 6634 Blue 27
3 PM Fri 94 100 W 12 11299 8634 6634 Blue 27
4 PM Fri 92 96 W 12 8351 6475 4475 Blue 23
5 PM Fri 91 93 SW 12 6504 5672 3672 Blue 20
6 PM Fri 89 90 SW 12 5695 5274 3274 Blue 17
7 PM Fri 87 87 SW 12 5283 4879 2879 Blue 14
8 PM Fri 81 81 SW 3 4489 4086 2086 Blue 8
9 PM Fri 76 76 SW 3 3824 3126 1126 Blue 3
10 PM Fri 73 73 SW 3 3127 2907 907 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 70 70 W 2 2907 2907 907 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 68 68 W 2 2907 2907 907 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 66 66 W 2 2907 2907 907 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 64 64 N 2 2907 2907 907 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 63 63 N 2 2907 2907 907 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 61 61 N 2 2907 2907 907 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst