Detailed Predictions for: Warner Springs
Launch Altitude (f): 2000
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

21 JAN 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Sun 26 26 E 2 2739 2739 739 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 25 25 E 2 2739 2739 739 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 25 25 E 2 2739 2739 739 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 27 27 E 1 2739 2739 739 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 33 33 SE 1 2739 2739 739 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 40 41 S 2 2739 2739 739 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 47 48 SW 2 5458 3857 1857 Blue 4
11 AM Sun 51 53 S 3 7254 5709 3709 Blue 9
12 Noon Sun 53 55 S 3 7672 5965 3965 Blue 11
1 PM Sun 55 57 S 3 8087 7432 5432 Blue 13
2 PM Sun 56 57 S 3 8087 7432 5432 Blue 13
3 PM Sun 55 55 S 3 7672 5965 3965 Blue 11
4 PM Sun 53 53 SW 2 7254 5709 3709 Blue 9
5 PM Sun 47 47 SW 2 5031 3544 1544 Blue 3
6 PM Sun 40 40 S 2 2739 2739 739 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 34 34 E 2 2739 2739 739 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 31 31 NE 3 2739 2739 739 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 31 31 NE 5 2739 2739 739 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 32 32 NE 5 2739 2739 739 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 32 32 NE 3 2739 2739 739 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 32 32 E 2 2739 2739 739 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 32 32 E 3 2739 2739 739 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 33 33 E 3 2739 2739 739 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 34 34 E 3 2739 2739 739 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 33 33 E 5 2739 2739 739 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 31 31 E 5 2739 2739 739 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 30 30 E 5 2739 2739 739 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 32 32 E 6 2739 2739 739 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 37 37 E 5 2739 2739 739 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 45 45 E 3 3866 2739 739 Blue 1
10 AM Mon 52 53 SE 5 7254 5709 3709 Blue 9
11 AM Mon 57 59 SE 5 8331 7846 5846 Blue 15
12 Noon Mon 59 61 E 5 9163 8191 6191 Blue 17
1 PM Mon 61 63 E 5 10103 8580 6580 Blue 19
2 PM Mon 61 62 E 6 9639 8309 6309 Blue 18
3 PM Mon 62 62 E 6 9639 8309 6309 Blue 18
4 PM Mon 59 59 NE 6 8331 7846 5846 Blue 15
5 PM Mon 52 52 E 3 6010 5581 3581 Blue 8
6 PM Mon 43 43 E 3 2739 2739 739 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 36 36 E 3 2739 2739 739 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 33 33 E 3 2739 2739 739 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 33 33 E 3 2739 2739 739 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 34 34 E 3 2739 2739 739 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 34 34 NE 3 2739 2739 739 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 34 34 NE 5 2739 2739 739 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 34 34 NE 7 2739 2739 739 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 34 34 NE 8 2739 2739 739 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 35 35 NE 8 2739 2739 739 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 35 35 NE 8 2739 2739 739 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 33 33 NE 7 2739 2739 739 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 32 32 E 6 2739 2739 739 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 34 34 E 6 2739 2739 739 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 41 41 E 5 2739 2739 739 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 50 51 E 6 5849 5409 3409 Blue 7
10 AM Tue 58 60 E 9 8674 8052 6052 Blue 16
11 AM Tue 63 65 E 10 10448 9533 7533 Blue 21
12 Noon Tue 65 68 E 10 10886 10411 8411 Blue 24
1 PM Tue 66 68 E 10 10886 10411 8411 Blue 24
2 PM Tue 66 68 E 10 10886 10411 8411 Blue 24
3 PM Tue 67 68 E 12 10886 10411 8411 Blue 24
4 PM Tue 64 64 E 10 10305 9063 7063 Blue 20
5 PM Tue 57 57 E 7 8087 7432 5432 Blue 13
6 PM Tue 50 50 E 7 5721 5012 3012 Blue 6
7 PM Tue 43 43 E 5 2739 2739 739 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 40 40 E 6 2739 2739 739 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 39 39 E 6 2739 2739 739 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 39 39 E 7 2739 2739 739 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 37 37 E 7 2739 2739 739 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 35 35 E 7 2739 2739 739 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 34 34 E 7 2739 2739 739 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 34 34 E 7 2739 2739 739 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 35 35 E 7 2739 2739 739 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 36 36 E 8 2739 2739 739 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 35 35 E 8 2739 2739 739 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 36 36 E 8 2739 2739 739 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 38 38 E 8 2739 2739 739 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 44 44 E 8 3550 2739 739 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 52 53 E 8 7254 5709 3709 Blue 9
10 AM Wed 59 61 E 8 9163 8191 6191 Blue 17
11 AM Wed 63 65 E 8 10448 9533 7533 Blue 21
12 Noon Wed 65 67 E 8 10733 10269 8269 Blue 23
1 PM Wed 67 69 SE 8 11146 10553 8553 Blue 25
2 PM Wed 68 69 SE 8 11146 10553 8553 Blue 25
3 PM Wed 68 69 SE 8 11146 10553 8553 Blue 25
4 PM Wed 66 66 SE 7 10590 9993 7993 Blue 22
5 PM Wed 62 62 SE 7 9639 8309 6309 Blue 18
6 PM Wed 56 56 SE 7 7880 7098 5098 Blue 12
7 PM Wed 52 52 SE 5 6010 5581 3581 Blue 8
8 PM Wed 50 50 SE 5 5721 5012 3012 Blue 6
9 PM Wed 49 49 SE 5 5593 4168 2168 Blue 5
10 PM Wed 48 48 SE 2 5458 3857 1857 Blue 4
11 PM Wed 47 47 SE 2 5031 3544 1544 Blue 3
12 Midnight Thu 45 45 SE 2 3866 2739 739 Blue 1
1 AM Thu 43 43 SE 1 2739 2739 739 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 42 42 SE 1 2739 2739 739 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 42 42 SE 1 2739 2739 739 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 41 41 S 2 2739 2739 739 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 39 39 S 2 2739 2739 739 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 37 37 S 2 2739 2739 739 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 38 38 S 6 2739 2739 739 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 43 43 S 6 2739 2739 739 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 50 50 S 6 5721 5012 3012 Blue 6
10 AM Thu 55 56 SW 10 7880 7098 5098 Blue 12
11 AM Thu 55 56 SW 10 7880 7098 5098 Blue 12
12 Noon Thu 52 53 SW 10 7254 5709 3709 Blue 9
1 PM Thu 50 51 W 15 5849 5409 3409 Blue 7
2 PM Thu 50 51 W 15 5849 5409 3409 Blue 7
3 PM Thu 52 52 W 15 6010 5581 3581 Blue 8
4 PM Thu 52 52 W 17 6010 5581 3581 Blue 8
5 PM Thu 50 50 W 17 5721 5012 3012 Blue 6
6 PM Thu 46 46 W 17 4180 2739 739 Blue 2
7 PM Thu 43 43 W 12 2739 2739 739 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 40 40 W 12 2739 2739 739 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 37 37 W 12 2739 2739 739 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 36 36 SW 5 2739 2739 739 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 36 36 SW 5 2739 2739 739 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 36 36 SW 5 2739 2739 739 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 36 36 W 2 2739 2739 739 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 36 36 W 2 2739 2739 739 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 37 37 W 2 2739 2739 739 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 36 36 N 1 2739 2739 739 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 34 34 N 1 2739 2739 739 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 32 32 N 1 2739 2739 739 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 33 33 NW 3 2739 2739 739 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 38 38 NW 3 2739 2739 739 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 45 46 NW 3 4180 2739 739 Blue 2
10 AM Fri 52 54 NW 7 7464 5837 3837 Blue 10
11 AM Fri 56 58 NW 7 8212 7639 5639 Blue 14
12 Noon Fri 58 60 NW 7 8674 8052 6052 Blue 16
1 PM Fri 60 62 NE 5 9639 8309 6309 Blue 18
2 PM Fri 61 62 NE 5 9639 8309 6309 Blue 18
3 PM Fri 62 63 NE 5 10103 8580 6580 Blue 19
4 PM Fri 60 60 E 3 8674 8052 6052 Blue 16
5 PM Fri 54 54 E 3 7464 5837 3837 Blue 10
6 PM Fri 47 47 E 3 5031 3544 1544 Blue 3
7 PM Fri 40 40 E 6 2739 2739 739 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 38 38 E 6 2739 2739 739 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 37 37 E 6 2739 2739 739 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 37 37 NE 10 2739 2739 739 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 36 36 NE 10 2739 2739 739 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 34 34 NE 10 2739 2739 739 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 33 33 E 12 2739 2739 739 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 33 33 E 12 2739 2739 739 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 34 34 E 12 2739 2739 739 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst