Detailed Predictions for: Warner Springs
Launch Altitude (f): 2000
LZ Altitude (f): 0
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

10 NOV 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Sun 39 39 N 3 2815 2815 815 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 40 40 N 3 2815 2815 815 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 42 42 N 5 2815 2815 815 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 47 47 N 3 2815 2815 815 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 54 54 N 1 2815 2815 815 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 63 65 N 1 2815 2815 815 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 70 73 W 3 4284 2815 815 Blue 1
11 AM Sun 75 78 W 5 9721 6624 4624 Blue 6
12 Noon Sun 77 80 W 6 10068 9511 7511 Blue 8
1 PM Sun 76 79 W 9 9894 7985 5985 Blue 7
2 PM Sun 76 78 W 10 9721 6624 4624 Blue 6
3 PM Sun 73 74 W 9 5536 3069 1069 Blue 2
4 PM Sun 68 68 W 7 2815 2815 815 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 62 62 SW 5 2815 2815 815 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 55 55 SW 1 2815 2815 815 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 50 50 N 6 2815 2815 815 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 48 48 N 7 2815 2815 815 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 47 47 N 6 2815 2815 815 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 47 47 N 6 2815 2815 815 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 47 47 N 6 2815 2815 815 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 46 46 N 6 2815 2815 815 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 45 45 N 7 2815 2815 815 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 44 44 N 7 2815 2815 815 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 44 44 N 7 2815 2815 815 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 45 45 NE 6 2815 2815 815 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 47 47 NE 6 2815 2815 815 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 50 50 E 6 2815 2815 815 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 54 54 E 7 2815 2815 815 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 60 60 E 3 2815 2815 815 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 66 68 E 2 2815 2815 815 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 72 75 E 3 6808 3725 1725 Blue 3
11 AM Mon 75 78 E 6 9721 6624 4624 Blue 6
12 Noon Mon 77 80 E 6 10068 9511 7511 Blue 8
1 PM Mon 76 79 E 7 9894 7985 5985 Blue 7
2 PM Mon 76 78 E 7 9721 6624 4624 Blue 6
3 PM Mon 74 75 E 6 6808 3725 1725 Blue 3
4 PM Mon 70 70 E 5 2815 2815 815 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 64 64 E 5 2815 2815 815 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 58 58 E 6 2815 2815 815 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 52 52 NE 7 2815 2815 815 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 49 49 NE 7 2815 2815 815 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 48 48 NE 6 2815 2815 815 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 48 48 E 5 2815 2815 815 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 47 47 E 6 2815 2815 815 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 47 47 E 6 2815 2815 815 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 46 46 E 6 2815 2815 815 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 45 45 E 6 2815 2815 815 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 44 44 E 6 2815 2815 815 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 44 44 E 7 2815 2815 815 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 46 46 E 7 2815 2815 815 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 49 49 E 7 2815 2815 815 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 54 54 E 8 2815 2815 815 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 61 61 E 8 2815 2815 815 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 67 68 SE 8 2815 2815 815 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 73 76 SE 9 8187 4263 2263 Blue 4
11 AM Tue 76 79 SE 9 9894 7985 5985 Blue 7
12 Noon Tue 78 81 SE 9 10257 9683 7683 Blue 9
1 PM Tue 78 81 SE 9 10257 9683 7683 Blue 9
2 PM Tue 79 81 SE 8 10257 9683 7683 Blue 9
3 PM Tue 77 78 E 8 9721 6624 4624 Blue 6
4 PM Tue 73 73 E 8 4284 2815 815 Blue 1
5 PM Tue 66 66 S 6 2815 2815 815 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 57 57 S 6 2815 2815 815 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 50 50 E 6 2815 2815 815 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 47 47 E 6 2815 2815 815 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 46 46 E 6 2815 2815 815 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 47 47 E 3 2815 2815 815 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 46 46 E 3 2815 2815 815 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 45 45 E 3 2815 2815 815 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 44 44 E 3 2815 2815 815 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 44 44 E 3 2815 2815 815 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 44 44 E 3 2815 2815 815 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 44 44 E 3 2815 2815 815 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 45 45 E 3 2815 2815 815 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 46 46 E 3 2815 2815 815 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 50 50 NE 1 2815 2815 815 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 56 56 NE 1 2815 2815 815 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 63 64 NE 1 2815 2815 815 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 69 70 S 3 2815 2815 815 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 74 75 S 3 6808 3725 1725 Blue 3
12 Noon Wed 76 77 S 3 9548 5443 3443 Blue 5
1 PM Wed 75 76 W 9 8187 4263 2263 Blue 4
2 PM Wed 75 76 W 9 8187 4263 2263 Blue 4
3 PM Wed 73 73 W 9 4284 2815 815 Blue 1
4 PM Wed 68 68 SW 8 2815 2815 815 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 62 62 SW 8 2815 2815 815 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 54 54 SW 8 2815 2815 815 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 49 49 W 2 2815 2815 815 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 46 46 W 2 2815 2815 815 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 45 45 W 2 2815 2815 815 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 45 45 NW 1 2815 2815 815 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 46 46 NW 1 2815 2815 815 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 46 46 NW 1 2815 2815 815 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 46 46 NW 1 2815 2815 815 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 45 45 NW 1 2815 2815 815 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 45 45 NW 1 2815 2815 815 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 44 44 N 1 2815 2815 815 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 43 43 N 1 2815 2815 815 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 43 43 N 1 2815 2815 815 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 46 46 NW 1 2815 2815 815 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 52 52 NW 1 2815 2815 815 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 59 59 NW 1 2815 2815 815 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 65 66 W 6 2815 2815 815 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 69 71 W 6 3072 2815 815 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 72 74 W 6 5536 3069 1069 Blue 2
1 PM Thu 71 72 SW 10 3738 2815 815 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 71 72 SW 10 3738 2815 815 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 69 69 SW 10 2815 2815 815 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 64 64 SW 8 2815 2815 815 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 58 58 SW 8 2815 2815 815 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 52 52 SW 8 2815 2815 815 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 47 47 W 2 2815 2815 815 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 45 45 W 2 2815 2815 815 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 45 45 W 2 2815 2815 815 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 45 45 W 1 2815 2815 815 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 45 45 W 1 2815 2815 815 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 45 45 W 1 2815 2815 815 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 44 44 NE 2 2815 2815 815 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 43 43 NE 2 2815 2815 815 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 43 43 NE 2 2815 2815 815 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 42 42 NE 2 2815 2815 815 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 41 41 NE 2 2815 2815 815 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 41 41 NE 2 2815 2815 815 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 44 44 E 1 2815 2815 815 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 50 50 E 1 2815 2815 815 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 57 57 E 1 2815 2815 815 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 64 66 S 5 2815 2815 815 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 68 70 S 5 2815 2815 815 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 69 71 S 5 3072 2815 815 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 70 72 SW 5 3738 2815 815 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 69 70 SW 5 2815 2815 815 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 69 69 SW 5 2815 2815 815 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 66 66 SW 5 2815 2815 815 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 58 58 SW 5 2815 2815 815 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 50 50 SW 5 2815 2815 815 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 43 43 NE 2 2815 2815 815 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 40 40 NE 2 2815 2815 815 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 40 40 NE 2 2815 2815 815 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 41 41 NE 6 2815 2815 815 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 40 40 NE 6 2815 2815 815 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 40 40 NE 6 2815 2815 815 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 40 40 E 7 2815 2815 815 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 41 41 E 7 2815 2815 815 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 42 42 E 7 2815 2815 815 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst