Detailed Predictions for: Blackhawk
Launch Altitude (f): 6280
LZ Altitude (f): 3700
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

21 SEP 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Fri 62 62 S 6 5564 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 63 63 S 6 5564 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 63 63 S 6 5564 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 67 67 S 5 5564 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 72 73 SE 2 8904 6280 0 Blue 1
10 AM Fri 75 78 E 2 10934 9720 3440 Blue 6
11 AM Fri 78 82 NE 7 12239 12027 5747 Blue 10
12 Noon Fri 80 85 NE 7 14450 12225 5945 Blue 13
1 PM Fri 81 86 NE 8 15263 12403 6123 Blue 14
2 PM Fri 81 86 N 6 15263 12403 6123 Blue 14
3 PM Fri 81 84 N 7 13557 12159 5879 Blue 12
4 PM Fri 82 84 N 5 13557 12159 5879 Blue 12
5 PM Fri 79 80 N 7 12107 10529 4249 Blue 8
6 PM Fri 76 76 N 1 10200 8859 2579 Blue 4
7 PM Fri 73 73 SW 8 8904 6280 0 Blue 1
8 PM Fri 71 71 SW 8 5884 6280 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 69 69 S 8 5564 6280 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 68 68 S 7 5564 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 67 67 S 8 5564 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 66 66 S 6 5564 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 65 65 S 7 5564 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 64 64 S 7 5564 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 64 64 SW 7 5564 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 64 64 SW 7 5564 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 62 62 SW 6 5564 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 63 63 S 6 5564 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 63 63 SW 6 5564 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 67 67 S 2 5564 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 72 73 E 1 8904 6280 0 Blue 1
10 AM Sat 75 78 NE 2 10934 9720 3440 Blue 6
11 AM Sat 78 82 NE 7 12239 12027 5747 Blue 10
12 Noon Sat 80 85 NE 8 14450 12225 5945 Blue 13
1 PM Sat 81 86 NE 8 15263 12403 6123 Blue 14
2 PM Sat 81 86 N 9 15263 12403 6123 Blue 14
3 PM Sat 81 85 N 8 14450 12225 5945 Blue 13
4 PM Sat 82 84 N 7 13557 12159 5879 Blue 12
5 PM Sat 79 80 NW 8 12107 10529 4249 Blue 8
6 PM Sat 77 77 W 7 10584 9293 3013 Blue 5
7 PM Sat 74 74 W 12 9344 6280 0 Blue 2
8 PM Sat 72 72 SW 9 7213 6280 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 70 70 SW 7 5564 6280 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 68 68 SW 9 5564 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 68 68 SW 10 5564 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 66 66 SW 9 5564 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 66 66 W 9 5564 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 65 65 W 12 5564 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 65 65 W 12 5564 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 65 65 SW 12 5564 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 63 63 SW 10 5564 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 64 64 SW 12 5564 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 64 64 SW 12 5564 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 67 67 W 7 5564 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 73 74 W 7 9344 6280 0 Blue 2
10 AM Sun 76 79 SW 7 12041 10140 3860 Blue 7
11 AM Sun 78 83 S 6 12552 12093 5813 Blue 11
12 Noon Sun 80 86 S 8 15263 12403 6123 Blue 14
1 PM Sun 81 87 SW 12 16014 13317 7037 Blue 15
2 PM Sun 81 86 SW 12 15263 12403 6123 Blue 14
3 PM Sun 81 85 SW 12 14450 12225 5945 Blue 13
4 PM Sun 82 84 SW 15 13557 12159 5879 Blue 12
5 PM Sun 79 80 SW 21 12107 10529 4249 Blue 8
6 PM Sun 76 76 SW 21 10200 8859 2579 Blue 4
7 PM Sun 73 73 SW 17 8904 6280 0 Blue 1
8 PM Sun 71 71 SW 17 5884 6280 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 68 68 SW 18 5564 6280 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 67 67 SW 17 5564 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 66 66 SW 18 5564 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 65 65 SW 17 5564 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 64 64 SW 17 5564 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 63 63 SW 17 5564 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 64 64 SW 16 5564 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 63 63 SW 16 5564 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 61 61 W 8 5564 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 62 62 W 8 5564 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 62 62 W 8 5564 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 66 66 W 6 5564 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 72 73 W 6 8904 6280 0 Blue 1
10 AM Mon 75 78 W 6 10934 9720 3440 Blue 6
11 AM Mon 78 83 N 6 12552 12093 5813 Blue 11
12 Noon Mon 80 86 N 6 15263 12403 6123 Blue 14
1 PM Mon 81 87 N 6 16014 13317 7037 Blue 15
2 PM Mon 81 86 N 9 15263 12403 6123 Blue 14
3 PM Mon 82 86 N 9 15263 12403 6123 Blue 14
4 PM Mon 82 84 N 9 13557 12159 5879 Blue 12
5 PM Mon 79 80 NE 7 12107 10529 4249 Blue 8
6 PM Mon 76 76 NE 7 10200 8859 2579 Blue 4
7 PM Mon 73 73 NE 7 8904 6280 0 Blue 1
8 PM Mon 71 71 W 3 5884 6280 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 69 69 W 3 5564 6280 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 68 68 W 3 5564 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 67 67 W 6 5564 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 66 66 W 6 5564 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 65 65 W 6 5564 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 64 64 W 6 5564 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 64 64 W 6 5564 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 64 64 W 6 5564 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 62 62 SE 2 5564 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 63 63 SE 2 5564 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 63 63 SE 2 5564 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 67 67 E 5 5564 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 73 74 E 5 9344 6280 0 Blue 2
10 AM Tue 76 79 E 5 12041 10140 3860 Blue 7
11 AM Tue 78 83 E 12 12552 12093 5813 Blue 11
12 Noon Tue 81 87 E 12 16014 13317 7037 Blue 15
1 PM Tue 82 88 E 12 16716 14207 7927 Blue 16
2 PM Tue 82 87 E 13 16014 13317 7037 Blue 15
3 PM Tue 83 87 E 13 16014 13317 7037 Blue 15
4 PM Tue 83 85 E 13 14450 12225 5945 Blue 13
5 PM Tue 80 81 E 9 12173 10875 4595 Blue 9
6 PM Tue 77 77 E 9 10584 9293 3013 Blue 5
7 PM Tue 74 74 E 9 9344 6280 0 Blue 2
8 PM Tue 72 72 E 6 7213 6280 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 70 70 E 6 5564 6280 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 68 68 E 6 5564 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 67 67 E 3 5564 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 66 66 E 3 5564 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 65 65 E 3 5564 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 64 64 NW 2 5564 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 64 64 NW 2 5564 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 64 64 NW 2 5564 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 62 62 E 1 5564 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 63 63 E 1 5564 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 63 63 E 1 5564 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 67 67 E 5 5564 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 72 73 E 5 8904 6280 0 Blue 1
10 AM Wed 75 78 E 5 10934 9720 3440 Blue 6
11 AM Wed 78 82 NE 9 12239 12027 5747 Blue 10
12 Noon Wed 80 85 NE 9 14450 12225 5945 Blue 13
1 PM Wed 81 87 NE 9 16014 13317 7037 Blue 15
2 PM Wed 81 86 E 12 15263 12403 6123 Blue 14
3 PM Wed 82 86 E 12 15263 12403 6123 Blue 14
4 PM Wed 82 84 E 12 13557 12159 5879 Blue 12
5 PM Wed 79 80 E 10 12107 10529 4249 Blue 8
6 PM Wed 77 77 E 10 10584 9293 3013 Blue 5
7 PM Wed 74 74 E 10 9344 6280 0 Blue 2
8 PM Wed 72 72 SE 3 7213 6280 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 70 70 SE 3 5564 6280 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 68 68 SE 3 5564 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 68 68 NE 1 5564 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 66 66 NE 1 5564 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 66 66 NE 1 5564 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 65 65 W 7 5564 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 65 65 W 7 5564 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 65 65 W 7 5564 6280 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst