Detailed Predictions for: Blackhawk
Launch Altitude (f): 6280
LZ Altitude (f): 3700
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

21 JAN 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Sun 24 24 NW 5 5466 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 23 23 NW 3 5466 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 23 23 NW 2 5466 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 24 24 NW 2 5466 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 26 26 NW 3 5466 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 29 30 NW 3 5466 6280 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 32 33 NW 5 5466 6280 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 35 37 N 3 5896 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 37 39 N 3 7355 6280 0 Blue 1
1 PM Sun 38 40 N 3 7572 6280 0 Blue 2
2 PM Sun 40 41 N 3 7788 6522 242 Blue 3
3 PM Sun 41 41 N 5 7788 6522 242 Blue 3
4 PM Sun 40 40 N 5 7572 6280 0 Blue 2
5 PM Sun 38 38 NW 3 6565 6280 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 34 34 NW 3 5498 6280 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 31 31 W 2 5466 6280 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 30 30 W 3 5466 6280 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 31 31 W 3 5466 6280 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 33 33 W 5 5466 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 31 31 W 5 5466 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 31 31 W 3 5466 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 31 31 W 3 5466 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 31 31 W 3 5466 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 31 31 W 2 5466 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 32 32 W 2 5466 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 31 31 W 2 5466 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 31 31 W 1 5466 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 32 32 W 1 5466 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 33 33 NW 1 5466 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 34 34 W 0 5498 6280 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 36 37 NE 2 5896 6280 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 38 40 N 3 7572 6280 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Mon 40 42 NE 3 8003 7342 1062 Blue 4
1 PM Mon 42 44 NE 5 8291 7772 1492 Blue 6
2 PM Mon 43 44 NE 5 8291 7772 1492 Blue 6
3 PM Mon 43 43 NE 5 8168 7558 1278 Blue 5
4 PM Mon 44 44 NE 3 8291 7772 1492 Blue 6
5 PM Mon 43 43 NE 3 8168 7558 1278 Blue 5
6 PM Mon 42 42 E 2 8003 7342 1062 Blue 4
7 PM Mon 41 41 N 0 7788 6522 242 Blue 3
8 PM Mon 40 40 NW 1 7572 6280 0 Blue 2
9 PM Mon 40 40 NW 1 7572 6280 0 Blue 2
10 PM Mon 40 40 NW 1 7572 6280 0 Blue 2
11 PM Mon 39 39 W 1 7355 6280 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Tue 39 39 NW 2 7355 6280 0 Blue 1
1 AM Tue 39 39 W 3 7355 6280 0 Blue 1
2 AM Tue 38 38 W 3 6565 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 38 38 W 2 6565 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 37 37 W 1 5896 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 36 36 S 0 5763 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 36 36 NE 0 5763 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 37 37 NE 1 5896 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 39 39 NE 1 7355 6280 0 Blue 1
9 AM Tue 42 43 NE 1 8168 7558 1278 Blue 5
10 AM Tue 44 46 NE 2 9043 8157 1877 Blue 8
11 AM Tue 46 48 NE 3 10035 8476 2196 Blue 10
12 Noon Tue 48 50 NE 5 10437 9481 3201 Blue 12
1 PM Tue 49 51 NE 6 10585 9964 3684 Blue 13
2 PM Tue 49 50 NE 6 10437 9481 3201 Blue 12
3 PM Tue 50 51 E 6 10585 9964 3684 Blue 13
4 PM Tue 49 49 E 7 10289 8985 2705 Blue 11
5 PM Tue 50 50 E 6 10437 9481 3201 Blue 12
6 PM Tue 48 48 E 6 10035 8476 2196 Blue 10
7 PM Tue 47 47 E 6 9546 8280 2000 Blue 9
8 PM Tue 45 45 E 6 8526 7986 1706 Blue 7
9 PM Tue 43 43 E 6 8168 7558 1278 Blue 5
10 PM Tue 42 42 SE 7 8003 7342 1062 Blue 4
11 PM Tue 41 41 SE 8 7788 6522 242 Blue 3
12 Midnight Wed 40 40 SE 8 7572 6280 0 Blue 2
1 AM Wed 40 40 SE 8 7572 6280 0 Blue 2
2 AM Wed 39 39 SE 8 7355 6280 0 Blue 1
3 AM Wed 38 38 SE 7 6565 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 38 38 E 7 6565 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 39 39 E 7 7355 6280 0 Blue 1
6 AM Wed 40 40 E 7 7572 6280 0 Blue 2
7 AM Wed 42 42 E 6 8003 7342 1062 Blue 4
8 AM Wed 43 43 E 6 8168 7558 1278 Blue 5
9 AM Wed 45 46 E 6 9043 8157 1877 Blue 8
10 AM Wed 47 48 E 6 10035 8476 2196 Blue 10
11 AM Wed 49 51 E 6 10585 9964 3684 Blue 13
12 Noon Wed 51 53 E 6 10895 10413 4133 Blue 15
1 PM Wed 53 55 S 8 11433 10707 4427 Blue 17
2 PM Wed 54 55 S 8 11433 10707 4427 Blue 17
3 PM Wed 55 55 S 8 11433 10707 4427 Blue 17
4 PM Wed 55 55 SW 12 11433 10707 4427 Blue 17
5 PM Wed 53 53 SW 12 10895 10413 4133 Blue 15
6 PM Wed 52 52 SW 12 10733 10266 3986 Blue 14
7 PM Wed 50 50 SW 17 10437 9481 3201 Blue 12
8 PM Wed 50 50 SW 17 10437 9481 3201 Blue 12
9 PM Wed 50 50 SW 17 10437 9481 3201 Blue 12
10 PM Wed 50 50 SW 21 10437 9481 3201 Blue 12
11 PM Wed 50 50 SW 21 10437 9481 3201 Blue 12
12 Midnight Thu 49 49 SW 21 10289 8985 2705 Blue 11
1 AM Thu 48 48 SW 17 10035 8476 2196 Blue 10
2 AM Thu 46 46 SW 17 9043 8157 1877 Blue 8
3 AM Thu 44 44 SW 17 8291 7772 1492 Blue 6
4 AM Thu 42 42 SW 15 8003 7342 1062 Blue 4
5 AM Thu 41 41 SW 15 7788 6522 242 Blue 3
6 AM Thu 40 40 SW 15 7572 6280 0 Blue 2
7 AM Thu 40 40 SW 17 7572 6280 0 Blue 2
8 AM Thu 46 46 SW 17 9043 8157 1877 Blue 8
9 AM Thu 46 46 SW 17 9043 8157 1877 Blue 8
10 AM Thu 45 46 SW 21 9043 8157 1877 Blue 8
11 AM Thu 43 44 SW 21 8291 7772 1492 Blue 6
12 Noon Thu 40 42 SW 21 8003 7342 1062 Blue 4
1 PM Thu 38 39 W 25 7355 6280 0 Blue 1
2 PM Thu 37 38 W 25 6565 6280 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 36 36 W 25 5763 6280 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 36 36 W 29 5763 6280 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 36 36 W 29 5763 6280 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 34 34 W 29 5498 6280 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 34 34 W 28 5498 6280 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 33 33 W 28 5466 6280 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 33 33 W 28 5466 6280 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 33 33 W 25 5466 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 34 34 W 25 5498 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 34 34 W 25 5498 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 35 35 W 25 5631 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 36 36 W 25 5763 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 37 37 W 25 5896 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 37 37 W 23 5896 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 37 37 W 23 5896 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 36 36 W 23 5763 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 36 36 NW 14 5763 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 35 35 NW 14 5631 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 36 37 NW 14 5896 6280 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 37 38 NW 5 6565 6280 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 39 41 NW 5 7788 6522 242 Blue 3
12 Noon Fri 41 43 NW 5 8168 7558 1278 Blue 5
1 PM Fri 44 46 N 6 9043 8157 1877 Blue 8
2 PM Fri 45 46 N 6 9043 8157 1877 Blue 8
3 PM Fri 46 46 N 6 9043 8157 1877 Blue 8
4 PM Fri 46 46 N 9 9043 8157 1877 Blue 8
5 PM Fri 44 44 N 9 8291 7772 1492 Blue 6
6 PM Fri 42 42 N 9 8003 7342 1062 Blue 4
7 PM Fri 40 40 NE 7 7572 6280 0 Blue 2
8 PM Fri 39 39 NE 7 7355 6280 0 Blue 1
9 PM Fri 38 38 NE 7 6565 6280 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 38 38 NE 5 6565 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 38 38 NE 5 6565 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 38 38 NE 5 6565 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 38 38 NE 3 6565 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 38 38 NE 3 6565 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 39 39 NE 3 7355 6280 0 Blue 1

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst