Detailed Predictions for: Blackhawk
Launch Altitude (f): 6280
LZ Altitude (f): 3700
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

22 APR 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 53 53 W 8 5292 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 54 54 W 7 5292 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 57 57 W 6 5292 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 59 60 W 5 6300 6280 0 Blue 1
9 AM Sun 61 63 NW 6 9768 6293 13 Blue 4
10 AM Sun 63 67 NW 6 11917 11558 5278 Blue 8
11 AM Sun 64 69 N 7 12230 11810 5530 Blue 10
12 Noon Sun 66 72 N 7 12833 12195 5915 Blue 13
1 PM Sun 69 75 N 7 14296 12713 6433 Blue 16
2 PM Sun 70 75 N 7 14296 12713 6433 Blue 16
3 PM Sun 72 76 N 7 14759 13209 6929 Blue 17
4 PM Sun 71 74 NW 7 13822 12514 6234 Blue 15
5 PM Sun 71 72 NW 7 12833 12195 5915 Blue 13
6 PM Sun 69 69 W 9 12230 11810 5530 Blue 10
7 PM Sun 66 66 W 8 11828 9595 3315 Blue 7
8 PM Sun 63 63 SW 15 9768 6293 13 Blue 4
9 PM Sun 62 62 SW 15 8261 6280 0 Blue 3
10 PM Sun 61 61 SW 16 7108 6280 0 Blue 2
11 PM Sun 61 61 SW 15 7108 6280 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Mon 60 60 SW 14 6300 6280 0 Blue 1
1 AM Mon 59 59 SW 14 5933 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 58 58 W 13 5457 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 56 56 W 12 5292 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 55 55 W 12 5292 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 55 55 W 12 5292 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 56 56 W 10 5292 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 59 59 W 10 5933 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 61 62 W 8 8261 6280 0 Blue 3
9 AM Mon 62 65 NW 8 11739 8118 1838 Blue 6
10 AM Mon 64 68 NW 9 12070 11721 5441 Blue 9
11 AM Mon 65 70 NW 8 12390 11898 5618 Blue 11
12 Noon Mon 68 74 N 7 13822 12514 6234 Blue 15
1 PM Mon 70 76 N 7 14759 13209 6929 Blue 17
2 PM Mon 72 78 N 8 17957 14162 7882 White 19
3 PM Mon 73 77 N 7 15466 13692 7412 Blue 18
4 PM Mon 72 75 N 7 14296 12713 6433 Blue 16
5 PM Mon 72 73 NW 7 13334 12355 6075 Blue 14
6 PM Mon 71 71 NW 7 12550 12036 5756 Blue 12
7 PM Mon 69 69 W 8 12230 11810 5530 Blue 10
8 PM Mon 68 68 SW 8 12070 11721 5441 Blue 9
9 PM Mon 67 67 SW 9 11917 11558 5278 Blue 8
10 PM Mon 66 66 SW 9 11828 9595 3315 Blue 7
11 PM Mon 65 65 SW 9 11739 8118 1838 Blue 6
12 Midnight Tue 63 63 W 8 9768 6293 13 Blue 4
1 AM Tue 61 61 W 8 7108 6280 0 Blue 2
2 AM Tue 59 59 W 8 5933 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 57 57 W 7 5292 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 55 55 W 7 5292 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 55 55 W 6 5292 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 56 56 W 7 5292 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 59 59 W 6 5933 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 61 62 NW 3 8261 6280 0 Blue 3
9 AM Tue 63 65 NW 2 11739 8118 1838 Blue 6
10 AM Tue 64 68 N 5 12070 11721 5441 Blue 9
11 AM Tue 66 71 NE 7 12550 12036 5756 Blue 12
12 Noon Tue 68 73 E 9 13334 12355 6075 Blue 14
1 PM Tue 70 75 E 10 14296 12713 6433 Blue 16
2 PM Tue 72 77 E 13 15466 13692 7412 Blue 18
3 PM Tue 74 78 E 12 17957 14162 7882 White 19
4 PM Tue 73 75 NE 10 14296 12713 6433 Blue 16
5 PM Tue 74 75 NE 9 14296 12713 6433 Blue 16
6 PM Tue 72 72 E 8 12833 12195 5915 Blue 13
7 PM Tue 70 70 S 7 12390 11898 5618 Blue 11
8 PM Tue 68 68 SW 6 12070 11721 5441 Blue 9
9 PM Tue 67 67 SW 6 11917 11558 5278 Blue 8
10 PM Tue 66 66 SW 6 11828 9595 3315 Blue 7
11 PM Tue 64 64 W 5 11600 7066 786 Blue 5
12 Midnight Wed 62 62 W 5 8261 6280 0 Blue 3
1 AM Wed 60 60 W 5 6300 6280 0 Blue 1
2 AM Wed 58 58 W 6 5457 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 57 57 W 6 5292 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 56 56 W 6 5292 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 56 56 W 6 5292 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 56 56 W 6 5292 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 57 57 W 6 5292 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 58 59 NW 7 5933 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 60 62 NW 7 8261 6280 0 Blue 3
10 AM Wed 62 65 NW 7 11739 8118 1838 Blue 6
11 AM Wed 64 69 N 8 12230 11810 5530 Blue 10
12 Noon Wed 66 72 N 8 12833 12195 5915 Blue 13
1 PM Wed 68 74 N 8 13822 12514 6234 Blue 15
2 PM Wed 70 76 N 6 14759 13209 6929 Blue 17
3 PM Wed 71 75 N 6 14296 12713 6433 Blue 16
4 PM Wed 72 75 N 6 14296 12713 6433 Blue 16
5 PM Wed 72 73 N 5 13334 12355 6075 Blue 14
6 PM Wed 70 70 N 5 12390 11898 5618 Blue 11
7 PM Wed 68 68 N 5 12070 11721 5441 Blue 9
8 PM Wed 66 66 W 7 11828 9595 3315 Blue 7
9 PM Wed 66 66 W 7 11828 9595 3315 Blue 7
10 PM Wed 66 66 W 7 11828 9595 3315 Blue 7
11 PM Wed 65 65 SW 9 11739 8118 1838 Blue 6
12 Midnight Thu 64 64 SW 9 11600 7066 786 Blue 5
1 AM Thu 63 63 SW 9 9768 6293 13 Blue 4
2 AM Thu 61 61 W 9 7108 6280 0 Blue 2
3 AM Thu 59 59 W 9 5933 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 57 57 W 9 5292 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 56 56 W 8 5292 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 56 56 W 8 5292 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 57 57 W 8 5292 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 58 59 NW 9 5933 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 60 62 NW 9 8261 6280 0 Blue 3
10 AM Thu 62 66 NW 9 11828 9595 3315 Blue 7
11 AM Thu 64 69 N 10 12230 11810 5530 Blue 10
12 Noon Thu 67 73 N 10 13334 12355 6075 Blue 14
1 PM Thu 70 76 N 10 14759 13209 6929 Blue 17
2 PM Thu 72 78 NW 9 17957 14162 7882 White 19
3 PM Thu 73 77 NW 9 15466 13692 7412 Blue 18
4 PM Thu 73 76 NW 9 14759 13209 6929 Blue 17
5 PM Thu 72 73 W 9 13334 12355 6075 Blue 14
6 PM Thu 70 70 W 9 12390 11898 5618 Blue 11
7 PM Thu 68 68 W 9 12070 11721 5441 Blue 9
8 PM Thu 66 66 W 10 11828 9595 3315 Blue 7
9 PM Thu 65 65 W 10 11739 8118 1838 Blue 6
10 PM Thu 63 63 W 10 9768 6293 13 Blue 4
11 PM Thu 62 62 SW 12 8261 6280 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Fri 61 61 SW 12 7108 6280 0 Blue 2
1 AM Fri 59 59 SW 12 5933 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 58 58 SW 14 5457 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 57 57 SW 14 5292 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 56 56 SW 14 5292 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 55 55 SW 14 5292 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 55 55 SW 14 5292 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 55 55 SW 14 5292 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 56 57 S 10 5292 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 59 61 S 10 7108 6280 0 Blue 2
10 AM Fri 63 67 S 10 11917 11558 5278 Blue 8
11 AM Fri 66 72 SE 9 12833 12195 5915 Blue 13
12 Noon Fri 70 77 SE 9 15466 13692 7412 Blue 18
1 PM Fri 71 78 SE 9 17957 14162 7882 White 19
2 PM Fri 71 77 S 15 15466 13692 7412 Blue 18
3 PM Fri 70 75 S 15 14296 12713 6433 Blue 16
4 PM Fri 68 71 S 15 12550 12036 5756 Blue 12
5 PM Fri 67 68 SW 21 12070 11721 5441 Blue 9
6 PM Fri 66 66 SW 21 11828 9595 3315 Blue 7
7 PM Fri 65 65 SW 21 11739 8118 1838 Blue 6
8 PM Fri 64 64 SW 21 11600 7066 786 Blue 5
9 PM Fri 63 63 SW 21 9768 6293 13 Blue 4
10 PM Fri 61 61 SW 21 7108 6280 0 Blue 2
11 PM Fri 60 60 SW 18 6300 6280 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Sat 59 59 SW 18 5933 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 58 58 SW 18 5457 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 57 57 SW 18 5292 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 56 56 SW 18 5292 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 55 55 SW 18 5292 6280 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst