Detailed Predictions for: Blackhawk
Launch Altitude (f): 6280
LZ Altitude (f): 3700
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

18 SEP 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Wed 58 58 SW 7 5479 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 59 59 SW 7 5479 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 61 61 SW 7 5479 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 62 62 W 5 5479 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 63 64 W 3 5479 6280 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 64 67 NW 6 6371 6280 0 Blue 1
11 AM Wed 65 70 N 8 8011 6357 77 Blue 4
12 Noon Wed 67 73 N 8 9119 7972 1692 Blue 7
1 PM Wed 70 76 N 9 10290 9095 2815 Blue 10
2 PM Wed 72 77 NE 8 11648 9315 3035 Blue 11
3 PM Wed 74 78 N 8 11929 9654 3374 Blue 11
4 PM Wed 73 75 NW 6 9785 8874 2594 Blue 9
5 PM Wed 73 74 SW 12 9341 8480 2200 Blue 8
6 PM Wed 71 71 SW 12 8527 6911 631 Blue 5
7 PM Wed 69 69 SW 13 7481 6280 0 Blue 3
8 PM Wed 67 67 SW 12 6371 6280 0 Blue 1
9 PM Wed 65 65 SW 12 5553 6280 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 64 64 SW 12 5479 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 64 64 SW 13 5479 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 63 63 SW 13 5479 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 62 62 SW 14 5479 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 61 61 SW 15 5479 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 60 60 SW 16 5479 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 59 59 SW 16 5479 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 59 59 SW 17 5479 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 59 59 SW 17 5479 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 60 60 SW 17 5479 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 61 61 SW 16 5479 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 62 64 SW 16 5479 6280 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 64 67 SW 16 6371 6280 0 Blue 1
11 AM Thu 66 71 SW 15 8527 6911 631 Blue 5
12 Noon Thu 67 73 SW 15 9119 7972 1692 Blue 7
1 PM Thu 68 74 SW 15 9341 8480 2200 Blue 8
2 PM Thu 68 74 SW 15 9341 8480 2200 Blue 8
3 PM Thu 69 73 SW 15 9119 7972 1692 Blue 7
4 PM Thu 68 71 SW 15 8527 6911 631 Blue 5
5 PM Thu 66 67 SW 15 6371 6280 0 Blue 1
6 PM Thu 63 63 SW 15 5479 6280 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 60 60 W 14 5479 6280 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 58 58 W 14 5479 6280 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 57 57 W 13 5479 6280 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 56 56 W 13 5479 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 56 56 W 13 5479 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 55 55 W 13 5479 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 54 54 W 13 5479 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 52 52 W 13 5479 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 51 51 W 12 5479 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 50 50 W 10 5479 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 49 49 W 9 5479 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 49 49 W 7 5479 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 49 49 W 7 5479 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 50 50 NW 6 5479 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 51 53 NW 7 5479 6280 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 53 56 N 8 5479 6280 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 56 61 N 9 5479 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 58 64 N 10 5479 6280 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 62 68 N 10 6934 6280 0 Blue 2
2 PM Fri 64 70 N 10 8011 6357 77 Blue 4
3 PM Fri 67 71 NE 9 8527 6911 631 Blue 5
4 PM Fri 68 71 NE 9 8527 6911 631 Blue 5
5 PM Fri 68 69 NE 9 7481 6280 0 Blue 3
6 PM Fri 69 69 NE 8 7481 6280 0 Blue 3
7 PM Fri 68 68 E 8 6934 6280 0 Blue 2
8 PM Fri 66 66 E 7 5898 6280 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 64 64 E 6 5479 6280 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 63 63 E 5 5479 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 61 61 E 5 5479 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 61 61 E 3 5479 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 60 60 N 3 5479 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 59 59 NW 3 5479 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 58 58 N 5 5479 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 56 56 N 5 5479 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 56 56 N 5 5479 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 57 57 N 5 5479 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 59 59 N 5 5479 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 61 61 E 3 5479 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 63 65 E 3 5553 6280 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 64 67 E 3 6371 6280 0 Blue 1
11 AM Sat 65 70 NE 9 8011 6357 77 Blue 4
12 Noon Sat 67 73 NE 9 9119 7972 1692 Blue 7
1 PM Sat 69 75 NE 9 9785 8874 2594 Blue 9
2 PM Sat 71 77 E 10 11648 9315 3035 Blue 11
3 PM Sat 72 76 E 10 10290 9095 2815 Blue 10
4 PM Sat 73 76 E 10 10290 9095 2815 Blue 10
5 PM Sat 72 73 E 10 9119 7972 1692 Blue 7
6 PM Sat 72 72 E 10 8897 7449 1169 Blue 6
7 PM Sat 71 71 E 10 8527 6911 631 Blue 5
8 PM Sat 70 70 SW 7 8011 6357 77 Blue 4
9 PM Sat 69 69 SW 7 7481 6280 0 Blue 3
10 PM Sat 69 69 SW 7 7481 6280 0 Blue 3
11 PM Sat 68 68 S 6 6934 6280 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Sun 66 66 S 6 5898 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 64 64 S 6 5479 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 62 62 SE 6 5479 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 61 61 SE 6 5479 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 59 59 SE 6 5479 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 59 59 SE 6 5479 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 60 60 SE 6 5479 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 61 61 SE 6 5479 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 63 63 E 3 5479 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 65 66 E 3 5898 6280 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 67 70 E 3 8011 6357 77 Blue 4
11 AM Sun 69 74 N 8 9341 8480 2200 Blue 8
12 Noon Sun 72 78 N 8 11929 9654 3374 Blue 11
1 PM Sun 74 80 N 8 12487 11593 5313 Blue 13
2 PM Sun 74 79 SW 10 12209 10242 3962 Blue 12
3 PM Sun 74 78 SW 10 11929 9654 3374 Blue 11
4 PM Sun 73 75 SW 10 9785 8874 2594 Blue 9
5 PM Sun 71 72 SW 23 8897 7449 1169 Blue 6
6 PM Sun 70 70 SW 23 8011 6357 77 Blue 4
7 PM Sun 69 69 SW 23 7481 6280 0 Blue 3
8 PM Sun 68 68 SW 21 6934 6280 0 Blue 2
9 PM Sun 68 68 SW 21 6934 6280 0 Blue 2
10 PM Sun 68 68 SW 21 6934 6280 0 Blue 2
11 PM Sun 68 68 SW 20 6934 6280 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Mon 68 68 SW 20 6934 6280 0 Blue 2
1 AM Mon 67 67 SW 20 6371 6280 0 Blue 1
2 AM Mon 66 66 SW 18 5898 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 64 64 SW 18 5479 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 62 62 SW 18 5479 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 61 61 SW 23 5479 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 60 60 SW 23 5479 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 59 59 SW 23 5479 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 60 60 SW 20 5479 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 58 59 SW 20 5479 6280 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 58 61 SW 20 5479 6280 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 58 62 W 14 5479 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 60 65 W 14 5553 6280 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 62 67 W 14 6371 6280 0 Blue 1
2 PM Mon 65 70 W 16 8011 6357 77 Blue 4
3 PM Mon 68 71 W 16 8527 6911 631 Blue 5
4 PM Mon 70 72 W 16 8897 7449 1169 Blue 6
5 PM Mon 70 71 W 15 8527 6911 631 Blue 5
6 PM Mon 69 69 W 15 7481 6280 0 Blue 3
7 PM Mon 67 67 W 15 6371 6280 0 Blue 1
8 PM Mon 65 65 W 14 5553 6280 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 64 64 W 14 5479 6280 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 64 64 W 14 5479 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 64 64 W 13 5479 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 63 63 W 13 5479 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 62 62 W 13 5479 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 60 60 W 10 5479 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 58 58 W 10 5479 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 57 57 W 10 5479 6280 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst