Detailed Predictions for: Blackhawk
Launch Altitude (f): 6280
LZ Altitude (f): 3700
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Wed 38 38 SW 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Wed 38 38 SW 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Wed 38 38 SW 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Wed 38 38 SW 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Wed 41 41 SW 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Wed 45 45 SW 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Wed 48 49 SW 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Wed 50 51 SW 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Wed 51 52 SW 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Wed 50 51 SW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Wed 50 51 SW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Wed 50 50 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Wed 48 48 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Wed 46 46 SW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Wed 45 45 SW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Wed 45 45 SW 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Wed 44 44 SW 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Wed 44 44 SW 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Wed 44 44 SW 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Wed 44 44 SW 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Thu 44 44 SW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Thu 43 43 SW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Thu 42 42 SW 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Thu 42 42 SW 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Thu 41 41 SW 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Thu 41 41 SW 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 41 41 SW 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 41 41 SW 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 43 43 SW 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 46 46 SW 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 48 48 SW 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 50 50 SW 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 51 51 SW 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 50 50 SW 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 50 50 SW 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 50 50 SW 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 46 46 SW 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 42 42 SW 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 42 42 SW 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 41 41 SW 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 40 40 SW 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 40 40 SW 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 40 40 SW 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 40 40 SW 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 40 40 W 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 38 38 W 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 37 37 W 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 37 37 W 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 35 35 W 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 35 35 W 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 35 35 W 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 35 35 W 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 37 37 W 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 40 40 W 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 42 43 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 44 46 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 45 47 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 44 46 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 44 45 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 44 44 NW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 42 42 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 40 40 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 40 40 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 39 39 NW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 39 39 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 39 39 N 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 39 39 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 39 39 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 39 39 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 38 38 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 37 37 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 37 37 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 36 36 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 36 36 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 36 36 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 36 36 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 38 38 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 42 43 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 45 46 E 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 47 49 E 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 48 50 E 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 48 50 E 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 48 49 E 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 47 47 E 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 45 45 E 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 43 43 E 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 42 42 E 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 42 42 E 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 41 41 E 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 41 41 E 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 41 41 E 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 41 41 E 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 41 41 E 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 40 40 E 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 39 39 E 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 39 39 E 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 38 38 E 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 39 39 E 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 38 38 E 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 38 38 SE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 41 41 SE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 46 47 SE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 49 50 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 51 52 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 53 55 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 53 54 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 53 54 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 51 51 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 47 47 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 43 43 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 43 43 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 42 42 W 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 41 41 W 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 41 41 W 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 40 40 W 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 40 40 W 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 40 40 W 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 38 38 W 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 37 37 W 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 37 37 W 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 35 35 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 35 35 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 35 35 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 35 35 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 37 37 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 40 40 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 42 43 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 44 46 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 45 47 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 45 47 NE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 45 46 NE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 44 44 NE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 41 41 NE 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 38 38 NE 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 38 38 NE 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 37 37 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 36 36 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 36 36 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 36 36 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 36 36 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 36 36 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 34 34 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 34 34 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 34 34 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst