Detailed Predictions for: Blackhawk
Launch Altitude (f): 6280
LZ Altitude (f): 3700
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

11 NOV 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Mon 51 51 W 3 4970 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 52 52 W 2 4970 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 53 53 W 2 4970 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 54 54 SW 2 4970 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 56 56 S 1 4970 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 58 59 N 1 5470 6280 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 59 61 NE 3 7021 6280 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 61 64 NE 5 8815 6989 709 Blue 1
12 Noon Mon 62 65 NE 5 9211 7683 1403 Blue 2
1 PM Mon 63 65 NE 6 9211 7683 1403 Blue 2
2 PM Mon 64 65 NE 6 9211 7683 1403 Blue 2
3 PM Mon 63 63 NE 6 8401 6280 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 63 63 E 6 8401 6280 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 62 62 E 6 7729 6280 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 60 60 E 5 6271 6280 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 58 58 SE 5 4970 6280 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 57 57 SE 5 4970 6280 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 56 56 SE 5 4970 6280 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 55 55 SE 6 4970 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 55 55 SE 6 4970 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 54 54 SE 6 4970 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 54 54 SE 6 4970 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 53 53 SE 6 4970 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 52 52 SE 6 4970 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 52 52 SE 5 4970 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 52 52 SE 5 4970 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 54 54 SE 5 4970 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 55 55 SE 5 4970 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 57 57 SE 6 4970 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 58 59 E 6 5470 6280 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 60 62 E 7 7729 6280 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 62 65 E 7 9211 7683 1403 Blue 2
12 Noon Tue 63 66 E 7 9600 8343 2063 Blue 3
1 PM Tue 63 65 E 8 9211 7683 1403 Blue 2
2 PM Tue 63 64 E 7 8815 6989 709 Blue 1
3 PM Tue 64 64 E 7 8815 6989 709 Blue 1
4 PM Tue 63 63 E 7 8401 6280 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 62 62 SE 6 7729 6280 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 62 62 S 5 7729 6280 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 61 61 SW 3 7021 6280 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 59 59 W 3 5470 6280 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 58 58 W 3 4970 6280 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 56 56 W 3 4970 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 56 56 W 3 4970 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 55 55 W 3 4970 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 55 55 W 3 4970 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 55 55 W 3 4970 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 54 54 W 3 4970 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 54 54 W 5 4970 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 54 54 W 5 4970 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 55 55 W 5 4970 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 56 56 W 5 4970 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 57 57 W 5 4970 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 59 60 NW 5 6271 6280 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 61 62 N 5 7729 6280 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 62 63 N 5 8401 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 63 64 N 5 8815 6989 709 Blue 1
1 PM Wed 64 65 N 5 9211 7683 1403 Blue 2
2 PM Wed 66 67 N 5 10021 8775 2495 Blue 4
3 PM Wed 65 65 N 5 9211 7683 1403 Blue 2
4 PM Wed 66 66 N 5 9600 8343 2063 Blue 3
5 PM Wed 64 64 NW 6 8815 6989 709 Blue 1
6 PM Wed 61 61 W 7 7021 6280 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 59 59 W 7 5470 6280 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 58 58 W 8 4970 6280 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 58 58 SW 8 4970 6280 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 58 58 SW 8 4970 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 59 59 SW 8 5470 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 59 59 SW 8 5470 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 59 59 SW 8 5470 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 58 58 SW 8 4970 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 57 57 SW 8 4970 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 56 56 SW 8 4970 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 55 55 SW 8 4970 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 55 55 SW 8 4970 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 55 55 SW 8 4970 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 56 56 SW 8 4970 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 56 56 SW 8 4970 6280 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 58 59 E 5 5470 6280 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 60 61 E 5 7021 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 61 62 E 5 7729 6280 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 63 64 E 6 8815 6989 709 Blue 1
2 PM Thu 62 63 E 6 8401 6280 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 63 63 E 6 8401 6280 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 62 62 S 7 7729 6280 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 62 62 S 7 7729 6280 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 62 62 S 7 7729 6280 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 61 61 SW 6 7021 6280 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 60 60 SW 6 6271 6280 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 60 60 SW 6 6271 6280 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 59 59 SW 5 5470 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 59 59 SW 5 5470 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 58 58 SW 5 4970 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 56 56 SW 5 4970 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 54 54 SW 5 4970 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 52 52 SW 5 4970 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 50 50 W 5 4970 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 50 50 W 5 4970 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 51 51 W 5 4970 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 52 52 W 2 4970 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 53 53 W 2 4970 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 54 54 W 2 4970 6280 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 55 56 N 5 4970 6280 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 56 58 N 5 4970 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 58 60 N 5 6271 6280 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 59 61 N 6 7021 6280 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 60 61 N 6 7021 6280 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 59 59 N 6 5470 6280 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 60 60 N 5 6271 6280 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 59 59 N 5 5470 6280 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 57 57 N 5 4970 6280 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 56 56 N 3 4970 6280 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 55 55 N 3 4970 6280 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 53 53 N 3 4970 6280 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 52 52 W 5 4970 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 51 51 W 5 4970 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 50 50 W 5 4970 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 49 49 W 6 4970 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 48 48 W 6 4970 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 47 47 W 6 4970 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 47 47 NW 6 4970 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 47 47 NW 6 4970 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 48 48 NW 6 4970 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 49 49 NW 3 4970 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 50 50 NW 3 4970 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 52 53 NW 3 4970 6280 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 54 56 N 5 4970 6280 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 56 59 N 5 5470 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 58 61 N 5 7021 6280 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 59 61 N 8 7021 6280 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 60 61 N 8 7021 6280 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 60 60 N 8 6271 6280 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 61 61 NE 9 7021 6280 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 60 60 NE 9 6271 6280 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 58 58 NE 9 4970 6280 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 56 56 N 6 4970 6280 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 55 55 N 6 4970 6280 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 54 54 N 6 4970 6280 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 53 53 NE 5 4970 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 53 53 NE 5 4970 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 52 52 NE 5 4970 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 51 51 E 6 4970 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 50 50 E 6 4970 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 49 49 E 6 4970 6280 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst