Detailed Predictions for: Blackhawk
Launch Altitude (f): 6280
LZ Altitude (f): 3700
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

25 MAR 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Mon 42 42 S 5 5036 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 44 44 S 3 5036 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 43 43 S 3 5036 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 45 45 SE 2 5036 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 50 51 SE 2 5036 6280 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 54 57 E 3 8029 6291 11 Blue 2
11 AM Mon 58 63 E 6 10379 8908 2628 Blue 8
12 Noon Mon 61 67 NE 6 12838 12146 5866 Blue 12
1 PM Mon 63 69 NE 6 13033 12574 6294 Blue 14
2 PM Mon 62 67 NE 5 12838 12146 5866 Blue 12
3 PM Mon 63 67 NE 5 12838 12146 5866 Blue 12
4 PM Mon 62 64 NE 3 12193 9205 2925 Blue 9
5 PM Mon 61 62 NW 3 9537 8610 2330 Blue 7
6 PM Mon 60 60 W 2 8941 8005 1725 Blue 5
7 PM Mon 57 57 SW 6 8029 6291 11 Blue 2
8 PM Mon 55 55 SW 8 7409 6280 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 54 54 SW 9 6318 6280 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 53 53 SW 9 5036 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 52 52 SW 10 5036 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 51 51 SW 10 5036 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 50 50 SW 10 5036 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 49 49 SW 10 5036 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 49 49 SW 12 5036 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 48 48 SW 12 5036 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 47 47 SW 12 5036 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 48 48 SW 10 5036 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 48 48 SW 10 5036 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 50 50 SW 9 5036 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 54 55 W 7 7409 6280 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 58 60 NW 6 8941 8005 1725 Blue 5
11 AM Tue 61 64 N 5 12193 9205 2925 Blue 9
12 Noon Tue 63 66 NW 3 12624 10078 3798 Blue 11
1 PM Tue 65 68 SW 2 12945 12360 6080 Blue 13
2 PM Tue 64 67 S 3 12838 12146 5866 Blue 12
3 PM Tue 65 67 S 7 12838 12146 5866 Blue 12
4 PM Tue 64 65 SW 10 12409 9499 3219 Blue 10
5 PM Tue 62 62 SW 14 9537 8610 2330 Blue 7
6 PM Tue 61 61 SW 16 9240 8309 2029 Blue 6
7 PM Tue 58 58 SW 16 8335 7361 1081 Blue 3
8 PM Tue 55 55 SW 17 7409 6280 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 54 54 SW 17 6318 6280 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 53 53 SW 16 5036 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 51 51 SW 16 5036 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 50 50 SW 17 5036 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 49 49 SW 20 5036 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 48 48 SW 21 5036 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 47 47 SW 21 5036 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 46 46 SW 22 5036 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 45 45 SW 21 5036 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 46 46 SW 21 5036 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 46 46 SW 20 5036 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 47 47 SW 20 5036 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 50 50 SW 22 5036 6280 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 53 54 SW 25 6318 6280 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 55 57 SW 28 8029 6291 11 Blue 2
12 Noon Wed 57 60 SW 30 8941 8005 1725 Blue 5
1 PM Wed 58 61 SW 30 9240 8309 2029 Blue 6
2 PM Wed 57 60 SW 31 8941 8005 1725 Blue 5
3 PM Wed 58 60 SW 31 8941 8005 1725 Blue 5
4 PM Wed 57 58 SW 31 8335 7361 1081 Blue 3
5 PM Wed 55 56 SW 30 7720 6280 0 Blue 1
6 PM Wed 54 54 SW 28 6318 6280 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 50 50 SW 24 5036 6280 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 48 48 SW 21 5036 6280 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 47 47 SW 18 5036 6280 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 45 45 W 16 5036 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 44 44 W 15 5036 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 42 42 W 14 5036 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 41 41 W 14 5036 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 40 40 W 14 5036 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 40 40 W 16 5036 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 38 38 W 18 5036 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 37 37 W 21 5036 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 38 38 W 21 5036 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 38 38 W 21 5036 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 39 39 W 21 5036 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 43 44 W 21 5036 6280 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 46 48 W 21 5036 6280 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 50 54 W 21 6318 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 51 56 W 21 7720 6280 0 Blue 1
1 PM Thu 53 58 W 21 8335 7361 1081 Blue 3
2 PM Thu 53 58 W 23 8335 7361 1081 Blue 3
3 PM Thu 53 56 W 23 7720 6280 0 Blue 1
4 PM Thu 52 54 W 23 6318 6280 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 51 52 W 24 5036 6280 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 50 50 W 24 5036 6280 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 48 48 W 24 5036 6280 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 46 46 W 22 5036 6280 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 45 45 W 22 5036 6280 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 44 44 W 22 5036 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 43 43 W 24 5036 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 42 42 W 24 5036 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 41 41 W 24 5036 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 40 40 W 20 5036 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 40 40 W 20 5036 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 39 39 W 20 5036 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 38 38 W 15 5036 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 40 40 W 15 5036 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 39 39 W 15 5036 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 41 41 W 8 5036 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 46 47 W 8 5036 6280 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 50 53 W 8 5036 6280 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 54 58 NW 8 8335 7361 1081 Blue 3
12 Noon Fri 56 61 NW 8 9240 8309 2029 Blue 6
1 PM Fri 58 63 NW 8 10379 8908 2628 Blue 8
2 PM Fri 58 63 NW 10 10379 8908 2628 Blue 8
3 PM Fri 58 62 NW 10 9537 8610 2330 Blue 7
4 PM Fri 57 59 NW 10 8639 7699 1419 Blue 4
5 PM Fri 54 55 N 12 7409 6280 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 53 53 N 12 5036 6280 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 49 49 N 12 5036 6280 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 46 46 N 12 5036 6280 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 44 44 N 12 5036 6280 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 43 43 N 12 5036 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 41 41 N 13 5036 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 39 39 N 13 5036 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 38 38 N 13 5036 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 37 37 N 14 5036 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 36 36 N 14 5036 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 35 35 N 14 5036 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 33 33 N 13 5036 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 35 35 N 13 5036 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 34 34 N 13 5036 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 36 36 N 10 5036 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 42 43 N 10 5036 6280 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 48 51 N 10 5036 6280 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 53 57 NE 13 8029 6291 11 Blue 2
12 Noon Sat 56 61 NE 13 9240 8309 2029 Blue 6
1 PM Sat 58 63 NE 13 10379 8908 2628 Blue 8
2 PM Sat 58 63 NE 15 10379 8908 2628 Blue 8
3 PM Sat 58 62 NE 15 9537 8610 2330 Blue 7
4 PM Sat 57 59 NE 15 8639 7699 1419 Blue 4
5 PM Sat 55 56 NE 16 7720 6280 0 Blue 1
6 PM Sat 54 54 NE 16 6318 6280 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 51 51 NE 16 5036 6280 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 48 48 NE 13 5036 6280 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 47 47 NE 13 5036 6280 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 46 46 NE 13 5036 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 44 44 NE 12 5036 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 43 43 NE 12 5036 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 42 42 NE 12 5036 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 41 41 E 12 5036 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 40 40 E 12 5036 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 39 39 E 12 5036 6280 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst