Detailed Predictions for: Blackhawk
Launch Altitude (f): 6280
LZ Altitude (f): 3700
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

21 JUL 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 70 70 SW 8 4947 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 70 70 SW 7 4947 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 74 74 SW 6 5459 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 78 79 W 2 6641 6280 0 Blue 3
9 AM Sun 78 81 N 3 7191 6357 77 Blue 5
10 AM Sun 79 84 NE 5 10730 7178 898 Blue 8
11 AM Sun 81 87 NE 8 12403 10678 4398 Blue 11
12 Noon Sun 84 91 NE 9 15649 13320 7040 Blue 15
1 PM Sun 86 93 N 9 17238 14629 8349 Blue 17
2 PM Sun 87 94 N 9 17753 15547 9267 Blue 18
3 PM Sun 88 94 N 8 17753 15547 9267 Blue 18
4 PM Sun 88 92 NW 8 15962 14243 7963 Blue 16
5 PM Sun 88 90 W 8 15027 12314 6034 Blue 14
6 PM Sun 87 88 SW 10 13601 11004 4724 Blue 12
7 PM Sun 85 85 SW 9 11138 8508 2228 Blue 9
8 PM Sun 83 83 SW 10 9167 6906 626 Blue 7
9 PM Sun 81 81 SW 10 7191 6357 77 Blue 5
10 PM Sun 80 80 SW 9 6917 6280 0 Blue 4
11 PM Sun 79 79 S 8 6641 6280 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Mon 78 78 S 7 6363 6280 0 Blue 2
1 AM Mon 75 75 SW 6 5595 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 74 74 S 6 5459 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 73 73 S 5 5323 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 72 72 S 5 5187 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 73 73 S 5 5323 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 73 73 W 2 5323 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 76 76 NW 1 5804 6280 0 Blue 1
8 AM Mon 79 80 N 1 6917 6280 0 Blue 4
9 AM Mon 80 82 N 2 8537 6632 352 Blue 6
10 AM Mon 80 84 NE 6 10730 7178 898 Blue 8
11 AM Mon 82 86 NE 8 11982 9100 2820 Blue 10
12 Noon Mon 85 90 NE 9 15027 12314 6034 Blue 14
1 PM Mon 86 91 N 9 15649 13320 7040 Blue 15
2 PM Mon 87 92 N 9 15962 14243 7963 Blue 16
3 PM Mon 88 92 NW 8 15962 14243 7963 Blue 16
4 PM Mon 88 91 NW 8 15649 13320 7040 Blue 15
5 PM Mon 88 89 W 7 14353 11897 5617 Blue 13
6 PM Mon 87 87 W 8 12403 10678 4398 Blue 11
7 PM Mon 85 85 SW 9 11138 8508 2228 Blue 9
8 PM Mon 83 83 SW 9 9167 6906 626 Blue 7
9 PM Mon 82 82 SW 9 8537 6632 352 Blue 6
10 PM Mon 81 81 SW 8 7191 6357 77 Blue 5
11 PM Mon 79 79 W 8 6641 6280 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Tue 78 78 W 7 6363 6280 0 Blue 2
1 AM Tue 76 76 W 6 5804 6280 0 Blue 1
2 AM Tue 75 75 W 6 5595 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 74 74 SW 5 5459 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 73 73 S 5 5323 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 74 74 S 5 5459 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 74 74 S 3 5459 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 76 76 E 3 5804 6280 0 Blue 1
8 AM Tue 78 78 E 3 6363 6280 0 Blue 2
9 AM Tue 78 79 E 5 6641 6280 0 Blue 3
10 AM Tue 78 81 NE 6 7191 6357 77 Blue 5
11 AM Tue 79 82 NE 8 8537 6632 352 Blue 6
12 Noon Tue 81 84 E 12 10730 7178 898 Blue 8
1 PM Tue 82 85 S 15 11138 8508 2228 Blue 9
2 PM Tue 83 86 S 16 11982 9100 2820 Blue 10
3 PM Tue 83 85 SW 15 11138 8508 2228 Blue 9
4 PM Tue 83 85 W 13 11138 8508 2228 Blue 9
5 PM Tue 84 85 W 10 11138 8508 2228 Blue 9
6 PM Tue 83 83 W 10 9167 6906 626 Blue 7
7 PM Tue 82 82 W 12 8537 6632 352 Blue 6
8 PM Tue 80 80 W 12 6917 6280 0 Blue 4
9 PM Tue 79 79 W 10 6641 6280 0 Blue 3
10 PM Tue 78 78 W 9 6363 6280 0 Blue 2
11 PM Tue 77 77 W 7 6084 6280 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Wed 77 77 SW 7 6084 6280 0 Blue 2
1 AM Wed 75 75 S 7 5595 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 74 74 SE 7 5459 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 74 74 SE 6 5459 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 73 73 SE 5 5323 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 74 74 SE 5 5459 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 74 74 SE 5 5459 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 76 76 SE 5 5804 6280 0 Blue 1
8 AM Wed 78 79 E 3 6641 6280 0 Blue 3
9 AM Wed 79 81 E 3 7191 6357 77 Blue 5
10 AM Wed 79 82 E 3 8537 6632 352 Blue 6
11 AM Wed 80 83 NE 7 9167 6906 626 Blue 7
12 Noon Wed 82 85 NE 7 11138 8508 2228 Blue 9
1 PM Wed 83 87 NE 7 12403 10678 4398 Blue 11
2 PM Wed 84 87 SW 12 12403 10678 4398 Blue 11
3 PM Wed 84 87 SW 12 12403 10678 4398 Blue 11
4 PM Wed 84 86 SW 12 11982 9100 2820 Blue 10
5 PM Wed 85 86 W 8 11982 9100 2820 Blue 10
6 PM Wed 84 84 W 8 10730 7178 898 Blue 8
7 PM Wed 82 82 W 8 8537 6632 352 Blue 6
8 PM Wed 81 81 SW 13 7191 6357 77 Blue 5
9 PM Wed 80 80 SW 13 6917 6280 0 Blue 4
10 PM Wed 79 79 SW 13 6641 6280 0 Blue 3
11 PM Wed 78 78 W 12 6363 6280 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Thu 78 78 W 12 6363 6280 0 Blue 2
1 AM Thu 76 76 W 12 5804 6280 0 Blue 1
2 AM Thu 75 75 W 9 5595 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 75 75 W 9 5595 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 74 74 W 9 5459 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 75 75 W 8 5595 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 75 75 W 8 5595 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 77 77 W 8 6084 6280 0 Blue 2
8 AM Thu 79 80 NW 3 6917 6280 0 Blue 4
9 AM Thu 80 82 NW 3 8537 6632 352 Blue 6
10 AM Thu 80 83 NW 3 9167 6906 626 Blue 7
11 AM Thu 81 85 N 8 11138 8508 2228 Blue 9
12 Noon Thu 83 88 N 8 13601 11004 4724 Blue 12
1 PM Thu 84 89 N 8 14353 11897 5617 Blue 13
2 PM Thu 85 90 N 9 15027 12314 6034 Blue 14
3 PM Thu 85 89 N 9 14353 11897 5617 Blue 13
4 PM Thu 85 88 N 9 13601 11004 4724 Blue 12
5 PM Thu 86 87 SW 12 12403 10678 4398 Blue 11
6 PM Thu 85 85 SW 12 11138 8508 2228 Blue 9
7 PM Thu 83 83 SW 12 9167 6906 626 Blue 7
8 PM Thu 81 81 SW 15 7191 6357 77 Blue 5
9 PM Thu 80 80 SW 15 6917 6280 0 Blue 4
10 PM Thu 79 79 SW 15 6641 6280 0 Blue 3
11 PM Thu 78 78 W 14 6363 6280 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Fri 77 77 W 14 6084 6280 0 Blue 2
1 AM Fri 75 75 W 14 5595 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 75 75 W 9 5595 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 74 74 W 9 5459 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 73 73 W 9 5323 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 74 74 W 6 5459 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 74 74 W 6 5459 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 76 76 W 6 5804 6280 0 Blue 1
8 AM Fri 79 80 NW 2 6917 6280 0 Blue 4
9 AM Fri 80 82 NW 2 8537 6632 352 Blue 6
10 AM Fri 80 84 NW 2 10730 7178 898 Blue 8
11 AM Fri 81 86 N 9 11982 9100 2820 Blue 10
12 Noon Fri 84 90 N 9 15027 12314 6034 Blue 14
1 PM Fri 85 91 N 9 15649 13320 7040 Blue 15
2 PM Fri 85 91 N 10 15649 13320 7040 Blue 15
3 PM Fri 86 91 N 10 15649 13320 7040 Blue 15
4 PM Fri 86 89 N 10 14353 11897 5617 Blue 13
5 PM Fri 86 88 SW 13 13601 11004 4724 Blue 12
6 PM Fri 85 86 SW 13 11982 9100 2820 Blue 10
7 PM Fri 83 83 SW 13 9167 6906 626 Blue 7
8 PM Fri 81 81 SW 14 7191 6357 77 Blue 5
9 PM Fri 80 80 SW 14 6917 6280 0 Blue 4
10 PM Fri 79 79 SW 14 6641 6280 0 Blue 3
11 PM Fri 77 77 W 13 6084 6280 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Sat 76 76 W 13 5804 6280 0 Blue 1
1 AM Sat 74 74 W 13 5459 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 73 73 W 9 5323 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 72 72 W 9 5187 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 71 71 W 9 5051 6280 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst