Detailed Predictions for: Blackhawk
Launch Altitude (f): 6280
LZ Altitude (f): 3700
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

18 MAY 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 43 43 W 7 5558 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 44 44 W 6 5558 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 46 46 W 5 5558 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 50 51 NW 2 6153 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 54 57 NW 3 7361 7037 757 Blue 4
10 AM Sat 57 62 N 3 10232 8314 2034 Blue 9
11 AM Sat 59 63 N 5 10555 9046 2766 Blue 10
12 Noon Sat 61 66 N 6 11506 10504 4224 Blue 13
1 PM Sat 62 67 N 7 11818 10821 4541 Blue 14
2 PM Sat 63 67 N 8 11818 10821 4541 Blue 14
3 PM Sat 62 65 W 6 11192 10184 3904 Blue 12
4 PM Sat 62 64 SW 12 10875 9737 3457 Blue 11
5 PM Sat 60 61 SW 20 9830 7531 1251 Blue 8
6 PM Sat 58 58 SW 21 7583 7143 863 Blue 5
7 PM Sat 55 55 SW 22 7149 6598 318 Blue 2
8 PM Sat 53 53 SW 24 6936 6280 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 51 51 SW 24 6153 6280 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 49 49 SW 24 5558 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 48 48 SW 28 5558 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 46 46 SW 32 5558 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 46 46 SW 33 5558 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 45 45 SW 35 5558 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 45 45 SW 35 5558 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 44 44 SW 35 5558 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 42 42 SW 32 5558 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 42 42 SW 29 5558 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 43 43 SW 26 5558 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 45 46 SW 25 5558 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 46 48 SW 25 5558 6280 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 47 51 SW 26 6153 6280 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 48 54 SW 28 7042 6280 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Sun 48 54 SW 28 7042 6280 0 Blue 1
1 PM Sun 49 56 SW 28 7255 6931 651 Blue 3
2 PM Sun 49 55 SW 28 7149 6598 318 Blue 2
3 PM Sun 48 53 SW 28 6936 6280 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 49 52 SW 28 6613 6280 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 47 48 SW 26 5558 6280 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 46 46 SW 26 5558 6280 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 44 44 SW 28 5558 6280 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 43 43 SW 28 5558 6280 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 41 41 SW 28 5558 6280 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 40 40 W 28 5558 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 40 40 W 26 5558 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 39 39 W 25 5558 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 38 38 W 24 5558 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 38 38 W 24 5558 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 38 38 W 24 5558 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 37 37 W 24 5558 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 36 36 W 24 5558 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 37 37 W 23 5558 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 39 39 W 22 5558 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 43 44 W 21 5558 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 46 48 W 20 5558 6280 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 48 52 W 18 6613 6280 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 50 56 W 17 7255 6931 651 Blue 3
12 Noon Mon 52 59 W 17 8382 7249 969 Blue 6
1 PM Mon 53 60 W 18 9127 7355 1075 Blue 7
2 PM Mon 54 61 SW 21 9830 7531 1251 Blue 8
3 PM Mon 53 58 SW 23 7583 7143 863 Blue 5
4 PM Mon 54 57 SW 26 7361 7037 757 Blue 4
5 PM Mon 52 54 SW 30 7042 6280 0 Blue 1
6 PM Mon 51 51 SW 31 6153 6280 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 49 49 SW 31 5558 6280 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 48 48 SW 31 5558 6280 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 46 46 SW 31 5558 6280 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 45 45 SW 32 5558 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 45 45 SW 32 5558 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 44 44 SW 33 5558 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 43 43 SW 36 5558 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 43 43 SW 37 5558 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 43 43 W 36 5558 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 42 42 W 33 5558 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 41 41 W 32 5558 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 42 42 W 32 5558 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 42 42 W 32 5558 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 44 45 W 29 5558 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 46 48 W 29 5558 6280 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 47 51 W 29 6153 6280 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 48 51 W 30 6153 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 49 53 W 30 6936 6280 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 50 54 W 30 7042 6280 0 Blue 1
2 PM Tue 50 54 W 30 7042 6280 0 Blue 1
3 PM Tue 50 53 W 30 6936 6280 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 50 52 W 30 6613 6280 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 48 49 W 30 5558 6280 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 47 47 W 30 5558 6280 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 46 46 W 30 5558 6280 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 44 44 W 25 5558 6280 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 43 43 W 25 5558 6280 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 42 42 W 25 5558 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 41 41 W 23 5558 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 40 40 W 23 5558 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 40 40 W 23 5558 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 40 40 W 21 5558 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 40 40 W 21 5558 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 39 39 W 21 5558 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 38 38 NW 18 5558 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 39 39 NW 18 5558 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 40 40 NW 18 5558 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 44 44 NW 15 5558 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 48 49 NW 15 5558 6280 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 50 52 NW 15 6613 6280 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 51 56 NW 13 7255 6931 651 Blue 3
12 Noon Wed 53 58 NW 13 7583 7143 863 Blue 5
1 PM Wed 54 59 NW 13 8382 7249 969 Blue 6
2 PM Wed 55 60 NW 12 9127 7355 1075 Blue 7
3 PM Wed 55 59 NW 12 8382 7249 969 Blue 6
4 PM Wed 55 58 NW 12 7583 7143 863 Blue 5
5 PM Wed 53 54 NW 12 7042 6280 0 Blue 1
6 PM Wed 52 52 NW 12 6613 6280 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 51 51 NW 12 6153 6280 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 50 50 W 12 5684 6280 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 49 49 W 12 5558 6280 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 48 48 W 12 5558 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 48 48 W 16 5558 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 47 47 W 16 5558 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 47 47 W 16 5558 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 47 47 NW 10 5558 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 46 46 NW 10 5558 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 46 46 NW 10 5558 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 45 45 NW 7 5558 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 46 46 NW 7 5558 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 47 47 NW 7 5558 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 51 52 N 3 6613 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 54 56 N 3 7255 6931 651 Blue 3
10 AM Thu 56 60 N 3 9127 7355 1075 Blue 7
11 AM Thu 58 63 N 8 10555 9046 2766 Blue 10
12 Noon Thu 59 65 N 8 11192 10184 3904 Blue 12
1 PM Thu 60 66 N 8 11506 10504 4224 Blue 13
2 PM Thu 61 66 N 9 11506 10504 4224 Blue 13
3 PM Thu 61 65 N 9 11192 10184 3904 Blue 12
4 PM Thu 61 64 N 9 10875 9737 3457 Blue 11
5 PM Thu 59 60 NW 9 9127 7355 1075 Blue 7
6 PM Thu 58 58 NW 9 7583 7143 863 Blue 5
7 PM Thu 56 56 NW 9 7255 6931 651 Blue 3
8 PM Thu 55 55 W 10 7149 6598 318 Blue 2
9 PM Thu 53 53 W 10 6936 6280 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 52 52 W 10 6613 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 52 52 W 12 6613 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 51 51 W 12 6153 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 50 50 W 12 5684 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 50 50 W 10 5684 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 50 50 W 10 5684 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 49 49 W 10 5558 6280 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst