Detailed Predictions for: Blackhawk
Launch Altitude (f): 6280
LZ Altitude (f): 3700
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

17 NOV 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Sat 42 42 W 7 4954 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 43 43 W 7 4954 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 43 43 W 7 4954 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 44 44 W 7 4954 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 50 50 W 6 4954 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 55 56 W 5 7414 6280 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 57 59 N 3 8432 7388 1108 Blue 3
11 AM Sat 58 60 N 3 8660 7904 1624 Blue 4
12 Noon Sat 59 61 N 5 8887 8184 1904 Blue 4
1 PM Sat 59 61 N 5 8887 8184 1904 Blue 4
2 PM Sat 60 61 N 6 8887 8184 1904 Blue 4
3 PM Sat 58 58 N 6 8203 6943 663 Blue 2
4 PM Sat 55 55 NW 6 6963 6280 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 52 52 NW 5 5554 6280 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 50 50 NW 7 4954 6280 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 48 48 W 7 4954 6280 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 47 47 NW 6 4954 6280 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 47 47 W 6 4954 6280 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 46 46 W 6 4954 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 45 45 W 6 4954 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 44 44 W 6 4954 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 44 44 W 5 4954 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 43 43 W 5 4954 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 43 43 W 3 4954 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 42 42 W 1 4954 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 43 43 E 0 4954 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 43 43 SE 1 4954 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 44 44 E 3 4954 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 48 48 SE 5 4954 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 53 53 E 6 6034 6280 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 54 55 E 8 6963 6280 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 56 58 E 9 8203 6943 663 Blue 2
12 Noon Sun 56 58 E 10 8203 6943 663 Blue 2
1 PM Sun 56 57 E 13 7949 6490 210 Blue 1
2 PM Sun 57 58 E 13 8203 6943 663 Blue 2
3 PM Sun 55 55 E 13 6963 6280 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 52 52 E 10 5554 6280 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 49 49 E 9 4954 6280 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 46 46 E 8 4954 6280 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 44 44 E 7 4954 6280 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 43 43 E 8 4954 6280 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 43 43 E 9 4954 6280 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 42 42 SE 9 4954 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 41 41 E 8 4954 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 40 40 SE 7 4954 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 40 40 SE 7 4954 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 39 39 SE 7 4954 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 39 39 SE 6 4954 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 38 38 SE 6 4954 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 39 39 SE 6 4954 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 39 39 SE 6 4954 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 40 40 E 7 4954 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 45 45 E 7 4954 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 50 51 E 7 5062 6280 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 52 53 E 9 6034 6280 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 53 54 E 9 6503 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 54 55 E 9 6963 6280 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 54 55 E 14 6963 6280 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 55 56 E 14 7414 6280 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 53 53 E 14 6034 6280 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 51 51 E 12 5062 6280 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 48 48 E 12 4954 6280 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 46 46 E 12 4954 6280 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 44 44 SE 6 4954 6280 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 44 44 SE 6 4954 6280 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 43 43 SE 6 4954 6280 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 42 42 SE 14 4954 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 42 42 SE 14 4954 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 41 41 SE 14 4954 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 41 41 SE 6 4954 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 40 40 SE 6 4954 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 40 40 SE 6 4954 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 39 39 SE 3 4954 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 40 40 SE 3 4954 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 40 40 SE 3 4954 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 41 41 SE 7 4954 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 45 45 SE 7 4954 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 50 50 SE 7 4954 6280 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 51 53 E 8 6034 6280 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 52 54 E 8 6503 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 53 55 E 8 6963 6280 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 54 56 NE 7 7414 6280 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 54 55 NE 7 6963 6280 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 52 52 NE 7 5554 6280 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 50 50 E 6 4954 6280 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 47 47 E 6 4954 6280 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 45 45 E 6 4954 6280 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 44 44 E 5 4954 6280 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 43 43 E 5 4954 6280 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 43 43 E 5 4954 6280 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 42 42 E 5 4954 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 41 41 E 5 4954 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 41 41 E 5 4954 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 41 41 SE 5 4954 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 40 40 SE 5 4954 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 40 40 SE 5 4954 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 39 39 SE 5 4954 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 40 40 SE 5 4954 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 40 40 SE 5 4954 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 40 40 SE 5 4954 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 45 45 SE 5 4954 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 48 49 SE 5 4954 6280 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 50 51 E 5 5062 6280 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 51 52 E 5 5554 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 51 52 E 5 5554 6280 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 52 53 NE 2 6034 6280 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 52 53 NE 2 6034 6280 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 51 51 NE 2 5062 6280 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 49 49 S 7 4954 6280 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 47 47 S 7 4954 6280 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 46 46 S 7 4954 6280 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 45 45 SW 18 4954 6280 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 44 44 SW 18 4954 6280 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 44 44 SW 18 4954 6280 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 43 43 W 13 4954 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 43 43 W 13 4954 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 42 42 W 13 4954 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 42 42 SW 20 4954 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 42 42 SW 20 4954 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 41 41 SW 20 4954 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 41 41 W 18 4954 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 42 42 W 18 4954 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 42 42 W 18 4954 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 42 42 W 17 4954 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 47 47 W 17 4954 6280 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 50 50 W 17 4954 6280 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 52 53 NW 14 6034 6280 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 53 54 NW 14 6503 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 53 54 NW 14 6503 6280 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 54 55 NW 15 6963 6280 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 54 54 NW 15 6503 6280 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 53 53 NW 15 6034 6280 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 51 51 NW 10 5062 6280 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 49 49 NW 10 4954 6280 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 47 47 NW 10 4954 6280 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 46 46 W 6 4954 6280 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 45 45 W 6 4954 6280 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 45 45 W 6 4954 6280 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 45 45 W 13 4954 6280 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 44 44 W 13 4954 6280 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 44 44 W 13 4954 6280 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 43 43 W 16 4954 6280 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 43 43 W 16 4954 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 42 42 W 16 4954 6280 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst