Detailed Predictions for: Blackhawk
Launch Altitude (f): 6280
LZ Altitude (f): 3700
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

20 JUL 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Fri 69 69 SE 6 5828 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 70 70 SE 7 6117 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 71 71 SE 6 6404 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 73 74 E 6 7088 6397 117 Blue 2
9 AM Fri 76 79 E 5 9592 8441 2161 Blue 7
10 AM Fri 80 84 E 6 11889 10248 3968 White 12
11 AM Fri 83 87 E 7 12536 11596 5316 White 15
12 Noon Fri 85 90 SE 8 13174 13174 6894 White 18
1 PM Fri 86 91 SE 9 13387 13387 7107 White 19
2 PM Fri 86 91 SE 9 13387 13387 7107 White 19
3 PM Fri 87 91 SE 8 13387 13387 7107 White 19
4 PM Fri 86 89 SE 7 12962 12962 6682 White 17
5 PM Fri 84 86 NW 7 12321 10965 4685 White 14
6 PM Fri 82 82 NW 9 10663 9549 3269 Blue 10
7 PM Fri 80 80 NW 7 9942 8855 2575 Blue 8
8 PM Fri 78 78 NW 5 9244 7765 1485 Blue 6
9 PM Fri 77 77 NW 5 8892 7054 774 Blue 5
10 PM Fri 77 77 NW 3 8892 7054 774 Blue 5
11 PM Fri 76 76 SW 2 8501 6822 542 Blue 4
12 Midnight Sat 74 74 SW 2 7088 6397 117 Blue 2
1 AM Sat 73 73 SW 2 6827 6280 0 Blue 1
2 AM Sat 71 71 SW 3 6404 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 70 70 S 5 6117 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 69 69 S 5 5828 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 69 69 S 3 5828 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 70 70 S 5 6117 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 71 71 SW 3 6404 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 72 73 N 2 6827 6280 0 Blue 1
9 AM Sat 74 76 N 2 8501 6822 542 Blue 4
10 AM Sat 76 80 N 3 9942 8855 2575 Blue 8
11 AM Sat 78 81 N 6 10301 9204 2924 Blue 9
12 Noon Sat 81 85 N 6 12105 10606 4326 White 13
1 PM Sat 84 88 N 6 12749 12749 6469 White 16
2 PM Sat 85 89 N 6 12962 12962 6682 White 17
3 PM Sat 85 88 NW 7 12749 12749 6469 White 16
4 PM Sat 86 88 NW 5 12749 12749 6469 White 16
5 PM Sat 85 87 W 5 12536 11596 5316 White 15
6 PM Sat 84 84 SW 6 11889 10248 3968 White 12
7 PM Sat 83 83 W 6 11027 9893 3613 Blue 11
8 PM Sat 82 82 SW 10 10663 9549 3269 Blue 10
9 PM Sat 80 80 SW 8 9942 8855 2575 Blue 8
10 PM Sat 79 79 W 8 9592 8441 2161 Blue 7
11 PM Sat 77 77 W 8 8892 7054 774 Blue 5
12 Midnight Sun 75 75 W 9 7813 6673 393 Blue 3
1 AM Sun 73 73 W 8 6827 6280 0 Blue 1
2 AM Sun 72 72 W 9 6678 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 70 70 W 8 6117 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 69 69 W 7 5828 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 69 69 W 5 5828 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 70 70 SW 3 6117 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 72 72 SW 3 6678 6280 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 74 75 NW 3 7813 6673 393 Blue 3
9 AM Sun 75 77 NW 6 8892 7054 774 Blue 5
10 AM Sun 77 81 NW 6 10301 9204 2924 Blue 9
11 AM Sun 79 84 N 7 11889 10248 3968 White 12
12 Noon Sun 81 87 N 7 12536 11596 5316 White 15
1 PM Sun 83 89 N 7 12962 12962 6682 White 17
2 PM Sun 85 91 N 7 13387 13387 7107 White 19
3 PM Sun 86 91 N 7 13387 13387 7107 White 19
4 PM Sun 86 89 N 7 12962 12962 6682 White 17
5 PM Sun 87 89 NW 8 12962 12962 6682 White 17
6 PM Sun 86 87 NW 7 12536 11596 5316 White 15
7 PM Sun 84 84 W 7 11889 10248 3968 White 12
8 PM Sun 83 83 W 8 11027 9893 3613 Blue 11
9 PM Sun 81 81 W 10 10301 9204 2924 Blue 9
10 PM Sun 79 79 W 14 9592 8441 2161 Blue 7
11 PM Sun 77 77 W 16 8892 7054 774 Blue 5
12 Midnight Mon 75 75 W 17 7813 6673 393 Blue 3
1 AM Mon 73 73 W 17 6827 6280 0 Blue 1
2 AM Mon 72 72 W 16 6678 6280 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 71 71 W 15 6404 6280 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 71 71 W 13 6404 6280 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 71 71 W 12 6404 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 72 72 W 12 6678 6280 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 73 73 W 12 6827 6280 0 Blue 1
8 AM Mon 74 75 W 8 7813 6673 393 Blue 3
9 AM Mon 76 78 W 8 9244 7765 1485 Blue 6
10 AM Mon 79 83 W 8 11027 9893 3613 Blue 11
11 AM Mon 82 88 N 6 12749 12749 6469 White 16
12 Noon Mon 85 92 N 6 13599 13599 7319 White 20
1 PM Mon 88 95 N 6 14229 14229 7949 White 23
2 PM Mon 91 98 NE 7 14849 14849 8569 White 26
3 PM Mon 93 99 NE 7 15055 15055 8775 White 27
4 PM Mon 94 98 NE 7 14849 14849 8569 White 26
5 PM Mon 94 96 NE 2 14437 14437 8157 White 24
6 PM Mon 94 95 NE 2 14229 14229 7949 White 23
7 PM Mon 92 92 NE 2 13599 13599 7319 White 20
8 PM Mon 90 90 W 6 13174 13174 6894 White 18
9 PM Mon 87 87 W 6 12536 11596 5316 White 15
10 PM Mon 83 83 W 6 11027 9893 3613 Blue 11
11 PM Mon 80 80 W 15 9942 8855 2575 Blue 8
12 Midnight Tue 78 78 W 15 9244 7765 1485 Blue 6
1 AM Tue 77 77 W 15 8892 7054 774 Blue 5
2 AM Tue 76 76 W 16 8501 6822 542 Blue 4
3 AM Tue 74 74 W 16 7088 6397 117 Blue 2
4 AM Tue 73 73 W 16 6827 6280 0 Blue 1
5 AM Tue 72 72 W 10 6678 6280 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 73 73 W 10 6827 6280 0 Blue 1
7 AM Tue 75 75 W 10 7813 6673 393 Blue 3
8 AM Tue 77 78 W 8 9244 7765 1485 Blue 6
9 AM Tue 79 81 W 8 10301 9204 2924 Blue 9
10 AM Tue 81 85 W 8 12105 10606 4326 White 13
11 AM Tue 84 89 N 7 12962 12962 6682 White 17
12 Noon Tue 87 93 N 7 13811 13811 7531 White 21
1 PM Tue 91 98 N 7 14849 14849 8569 White 26
2 PM Tue 94 100 E 6 15260 15260 8980 White 28
3 PM Tue 95 100 E 6 15260 15260 8980 White 28
4 PM Tue 95 99 E 6 15055 15055 8775 White 27
5 PM Tue 94 96 W 2 14437 14437 8157 White 24
6 PM Tue 93 94 W 2 14022 14022 7742 White 22
7 PM Tue 91 91 W 2 13387 13387 7107 White 19
8 PM Tue 89 89 W 12 12962 12962 6682 White 17
9 PM Tue 86 86 W 12 12321 10965 4685 White 14
10 PM Tue 84 84 W 12 11889 10248 3968 White 12
11 PM Tue 82 82 W 15 10663 9549 3269 Blue 10
12 Midnight Wed 80 80 W 15 9942 8855 2575 Blue 8
1 AM Wed 78 78 W 15 9244 7765 1485 Blue 6
2 AM Wed 76 76 W 15 8501 6822 542 Blue 4
3 AM Wed 76 76 W 15 8501 6822 542 Blue 4
4 AM Wed 75 75 W 15 7813 6673 393 Blue 3
5 AM Wed 75 75 W 12 7813 6673 393 Blue 3
6 AM Wed 76 76 W 12 8501 6822 542 Blue 4
7 AM Wed 77 77 W 12 8892 7054 774 Blue 5
8 AM Wed 79 80 NW 8 9942 8855 2575 Blue 8
9 AM Wed 81 83 NW 8 11027 9893 3613 Blue 11
10 AM Wed 83 87 NW 8 12536 11596 5316 White 15
11 AM Wed 86 91 NW 6 13387 13387 7107 White 19
12 Noon Wed 89 95 NW 6 14229 14229 7949 White 23
1 PM Wed 92 99 NW 6 15055 15055 8775 White 27
2 PM Wed 94 100 N 5 15260 15260 8980 White 28
3 PM Wed 95 100 N 5 15260 15260 8980 White 28
4 PM Wed 95 99 N 5 15055 15055 8775 White 27
5 PM Wed 93 95 W 9 14229 14229 7949 White 23
6 PM Wed 91 92 W 9 13599 13599 7319 White 20
7 PM Wed 89 89 W 9 12962 12962 6682 White 17
8 PM Wed 86 86 SW 15 12321 10965 4685 White 14
9 PM Wed 83 83 SW 15 11027 9893 3613 Blue 11
10 PM Wed 80 80 SW 15 9942 8855 2575 Blue 8
11 PM Wed 77 77 W 16 8892 7054 774 Blue 5
12 Midnight Thu 76 76 W 16 8501 6822 542 Blue 4
1 AM Thu 75 75 W 16 7813 6673 393 Blue 3
2 AM Thu 75 75 W 17 7813 6673 393 Blue 3
3 AM Thu 74 74 W 17 7088 6397 117 Blue 2
4 AM Thu 74 74 W 17 7088 6397 117 Blue 2

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst