Detailed Predictions for: Little Black
Launch Altitude (f): 1050
LZ Altitude (f): 750
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

17 NOV 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Sat 54 46 E 3 522 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 54 46 E 3 522 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 53 45 E 5 522 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 53 45 E 5 522 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 57 49 SE 3 522 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 62 54 S 2 522 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 66 60 SW 5 938 1050 0 Blue 2
11 AM Sat 69 63 W 5 1257 1050 0 Blue 5
12 Noon Sat 70 64 W 7 1437 1050 0 Blue 6
1 PM Sat 70 64 W 9 1437 1050 0 Blue 6
2 PM Sat 69 62 W 9 1078 1050 0 Blue 4
3 PM Sat 69 61 W 8 1008 1050 0 Blue 3
4 PM Sat 67 59 W 7 796 1050 0 Blue 1
5 PM Sat 64 56 W 5 522 1050 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 61 53 W 2 522 1050 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 60 52 N 1 522 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 58 50 N 1 522 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 57 49 NE 1 522 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 57 49 E 2 522 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 55 47 NE 2 522 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 54 46 E 2 522 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 54 46 E 2 522 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 54 46 E 2 522 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 53 45 E 1 522 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 53 45 NE 3 522 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 52 44 NE 3 522 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 52 44 NE 2 522 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 52 44 NE 3 522 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 57 49 NE 3 522 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 62 54 N 2 522 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 67 61 W 3 1008 1050 0 Blue 3
11 AM Sun 70 64 W 6 1437 1050 0 Blue 6
12 Noon Sun 71 65 W 7 1616 1077 27 Blue 7
1 PM Sun 71 65 W 10 1616 1077 27 Blue 7
2 PM Sun 70 63 W 10 1257 1050 0 Blue 5
3 PM Sun 70 62 W 9 1078 1050 0 Blue 4
4 PM Sun 68 60 W 7 938 1050 0 Blue 2
5 PM Sun 64 56 W 6 522 1050 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 62 54 W 5 522 1050 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 60 52 W 2 522 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 58 50 N 1 522 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 57 49 N 1 522 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 57 49 N 2 522 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 56 48 N 1 522 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 54 46 N 1 522 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 54 46 NE 1 522 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 54 46 E 1 522 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 54 46 E 1 522 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 53 45 SE 2 522 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 53 45 SE 2 522 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 52 44 SE 2 522 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 52 44 SE 3 522 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 57 49 SE 3 522 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 63 56 SE 3 522 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 69 62 W 8 1078 1050 0 Blue 4
11 AM Mon 71 65 W 8 1616 1077 27 Blue 7
12 Noon Mon 73 67 W 8 2001 1432 382 Blue 9
1 PM Mon 73 66 W 9 1794 1253 203 Blue 8
2 PM Mon 72 65 W 9 1616 1077 27 Blue 7
3 PM Mon 72 64 W 9 1437 1050 0 Blue 6
4 PM Mon 70 62 W 6 1078 1050 0 Blue 4
5 PM Mon 66 58 W 6 593 1050 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 64 56 W 6 522 1050 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 62 54 W 1 522 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 60 52 W 1 522 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 59 51 W 1 522 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 59 51 N 1 522 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 58 50 N 1 522 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 56 48 N 1 522 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 56 48 NE 2 522 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 56 48 NE 2 522 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 56 48 NE 2 522 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 55 47 E 0 522 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 55 47 E 0 522 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 54 46 E 0 522 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 54 46 S 2 522 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 58 50 S 2 522 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 63 55 S 2 522 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 67 61 SW 5 1008 1050 0 Blue 3
11 AM Tue 69 63 SW 5 1257 1050 0 Blue 5
12 Noon Tue 70 64 SW 5 1437 1050 0 Blue 6
1 PM Tue 70 64 W 9 1437 1050 0 Blue 6
2 PM Tue 70 63 W 9 1257 1050 0 Blue 5
3 PM Tue 69 61 W 9 1008 1050 0 Blue 3
4 PM Tue 67 59 W 7 796 1050 0 Blue 1
5 PM Tue 64 56 W 7 522 1050 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 62 54 W 7 522 1050 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 61 53 NW 0 522 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 59 51 NW 0 522 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 58 50 NW 0 522 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 58 50 E 1 522 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 57 49 E 1 522 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 56 48 E 1 522 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 56 48 E 3 522 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 56 48 E 3 522 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 55 47 E 3 522 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 55 47 E 2 522 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 54 46 E 2 522 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 54 46 E 2 522 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 54 46 E 5 522 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 58 50 E 5 522 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 62 54 E 5 522 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 66 59 SW 2 796 1050 0 Blue 1
11 AM Wed 68 61 SW 2 1008 1050 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Wed 69 62 SW 2 1078 1050 0 Blue 4
1 PM Wed 69 62 W 9 1078 1050 0 Blue 4
2 PM Wed 69 62 W 9 1078 1050 0 Blue 4
3 PM Wed 68 60 W 9 938 1050 0 Blue 2
4 PM Wed 66 58 W 7 593 1050 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 64 56 W 7 522 1050 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 62 54 W 7 522 1050 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 60 52 SW 1 522 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 59 51 SW 1 522 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 58 50 SW 1 522 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 58 50 SE 2 522 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 57 49 SE 2 522 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 56 48 SE 2 522 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 56 48 W 1 522 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 55 47 W 1 522 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 55 47 W 1 522 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 55 47 NE 2 522 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 54 46 NE 2 522 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 54 46 NE 2 522 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 54 46 E 2 522 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 58 50 E 2 522 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 63 55 E 2 522 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 67 59 NW 5 796 1050 0 Blue 1
11 AM Thu 69 62 NW 5 1078 1050 0 Blue 4
12 Noon Thu 70 63 NW 5 1257 1050 0 Blue 5
1 PM Thu 70 63 W 13 1257 1050 0 Blue 5
2 PM Thu 70 62 W 13 1078 1050 0 Blue 4
3 PM Thu 69 61 W 13 1008 1050 0 Blue 3
4 PM Thu 67 59 NW 13 796 1050 0 Blue 1
5 PM Thu 64 56 NW 13 522 1050 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 61 53 NW 13 522 1050 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 60 52 N 3 522 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 58 50 N 3 522 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 57 49 N 3 522 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 57 49 N 1 522 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 55 47 N 1 522 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 54 46 N 1 522 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 54 46 NE 2 522 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 54 46 NE 2 522 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 53 45 NE 2 522 1050 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst