Detailed Predictions for: Little Black
Launch Altitude (f): 1050
LZ Altitude (f): 750
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

20 JUL 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Fri 67 59 W 1 525 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 67 59 W 2 525 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 68 60 W 1 525 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 69 61 W 1 525 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 72 65 SW 2 525 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 74 68 W 3 1362 1050 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 77 74 W 8 1737 1538 488 Blue 6
12 Noon Fri 78 76 W 9 1907 1656 606 Blue 8
1 PM Fri 79 77 W 9 2031 1734 684 Blue 9
2 PM Fri 78 76 W 10 1907 1656 606 Blue 8
3 PM Fri 79 76 W 12 1907 1656 606 Blue 8
4 PM Fri 78 73 W 10 1659 1479 429 Blue 5
5 PM Fri 76 70 W 9 1480 1050 0 Blue 2
6 PM Fri 74 66 W 9 525 1050 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 72 64 W 9 525 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 70 62 W 6 525 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 69 61 W 6 525 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 68 60 W 5 525 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 68 60 W 5 525 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 68 60 W 5 525 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 67 59 W 5 525 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 67 59 W 2 525 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 67 59 W 2 525 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 67 59 W 2 525 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 67 59 W 2 525 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 67 59 W 2 525 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 67 59 W 2 525 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 68 60 NW 2 525 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 70 62 NW 2 525 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 73 66 W 3 525 1050 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 76 73 W 9 1659 1479 429 Blue 5
12 Noon Sat 77 75 W 9 1822 1597 547 Blue 7
1 PM Sat 78 77 W 10 2031 1734 684 Blue 9
2 PM Sat 77 75 W 12 1822 1597 547 Blue 7
3 PM Sat 78 75 W 12 1822 1597 547 Blue 7
4 PM Sat 77 73 W 12 1659 1479 429 Blue 5
5 PM Sat 75 69 W 10 1421 1050 0 Blue 1
6 PM Sat 73 66 W 9 525 1050 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 71 63 W 9 525 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 69 61 W 7 525 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 68 60 W 7 525 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 68 60 W 6 525 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 68 60 NW 5 525 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 68 60 NW 5 525 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 67 59 NW 5 525 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 67 59 NW 3 525 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 67 59 NW 3 525 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 67 59 NW 5 525 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 66 58 NW 3 525 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 66 58 NW 3 525 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 66 58 NW 3 525 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 68 60 NW 5 525 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 70 62 NW 6 525 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 74 66 W 7 525 1050 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 77 75 W 12 1822 1597 547 Blue 7
12 Noon Sun 79 78 W 12 2155 1819 769 Blue 10
1 PM Sun 80 80 W 12 2349 2025 975 Blue 12
2 PM Sun 79 78 W 12 2155 1819 769 Blue 10
3 PM Sun 80 78 W 10 2155 1819 769 Blue 10
4 PM Sun 79 75 W 10 1822 1597 547 Blue 7
5 PM Sun 78 72 W 9 1599 1419 369 Blue 4
6 PM Sun 76 69 W 8 1421 1050 0 Blue 1
7 PM Sun 74 66 W 7 525 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 72 64 W 6 525 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 70 62 W 5 525 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 68 60 W 3 525 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 67 59 W 3 525 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 67 59 W 2 525 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 66 58 SW 2 525 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 66 58 SW 1 525 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 67 59 S 1 525 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 67 59 S 1 525 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 66 58 S 1 525 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 66 58 S 1 525 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 66 58 S 1 525 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 68 60 SW 2 525 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 73 65 SW 2 525 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 79 71 SW 2 1540 1360 310 Blue 3
11 AM Mon 84 83 W 8 2649 2344 1294 Blue 15
12 Noon Mon 87 87 W 8 3361 2815 1765 Blue 19
1 PM Mon 88 88 W 8 3638 2992 1942 Blue 20
2 PM Mon 89 89 W 9 3917 3169 2119 Blue 21
3 PM Mon 89 87 W 9 3361 2815 1765 Blue 19
4 PM Mon 89 85 W 9 3005 2523 1473 Blue 17
5 PM Mon 88 83 W 9 2649 2344 1294 Blue 15
6 PM Mon 85 78 W 9 2155 1819 769 Blue 10
7 PM Mon 81 73 W 9 1659 1479 429 Blue 5
8 PM Mon 77 69 W 5 1421 1050 0 Blue 1
9 PM Mon 75 67 W 5 948 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 73 65 W 5 525 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 72 64 SW 2 525 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 72 64 SW 2 525 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 71 63 SW 2 525 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 70 62 SW 2 525 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 69 61 SW 2 525 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 68 60 SW 2 525 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 68 60 S 0 525 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 69 61 S 0 525 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 71 63 S 0 525 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 74 66 SW 1 525 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 80 73 SW 1 1659 1479 429 Blue 5
10 AM Tue 86 80 SW 1 2349 2025 975 Blue 12
11 AM Tue 91 89 W 8 3917 3169 2119 Blue 21
12 Noon Tue 93 93 W 8 4687 4162 3112 Blue 25
1 PM Tue 94 94 W 8 5012 4357 3307 Blue 26
2 PM Tue 94 93 W 10 4687 4162 3112 Blue 25
3 PM Tue 93 91 W 10 4376 3612 2562 Blue 23
4 PM Tue 92 88 W 10 3638 2992 1942 Blue 20
5 PM Tue 90 84 W 8 2827 2434 1384 Blue 16
6 PM Tue 87 80 W 8 2349 2025 975 Blue 12
7 PM Tue 84 76 W 8 1907 1656 606 Blue 8
8 PM Tue 81 73 W 5 1659 1479 429 Blue 5
9 PM Tue 79 71 W 5 1540 1360 310 Blue 3
10 PM Tue 78 70 W 5 1480 1050 0 Blue 2
11 PM Tue 77 69 SW 2 1421 1050 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Wed 75 67 SW 2 948 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 74 66 SW 2 525 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 72 64 W 1 525 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 71 63 W 1 525 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 71 63 W 1 525 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 71 63 NE 1 525 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 72 64 NE 1 525 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 74 66 NE 1 525 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 78 71 W 1 1540 1360 310 Blue 3
9 AM Wed 82 76 W 1 1907 1656 606 Blue 8
10 AM Wed 88 83 W 1 2649 2344 1294 Blue 15
11 AM Wed 92 90 W 8 4193 3346 2296 Blue 22
12 Noon Wed 93 93 W 8 4687 4162 3112 Blue 25
1 PM Wed 92 92 W 8 4532 3888 2838 Blue 24
2 PM Wed 91 91 W 10 4376 3612 2562 Blue 23
3 PM Wed 90 88 W 10 3638 2992 1942 Blue 20
4 PM Wed 90 86 W 10 3183 2637 1587 Blue 18
5 PM Wed 89 83 W 8 2649 2344 1294 Blue 15
6 PM Wed 86 79 W 8 2260 1904 854 Blue 11
7 PM Wed 84 76 W 8 1907 1656 606 Blue 8
8 PM Wed 81 73 SW 5 1659 1479 429 Blue 5
9 PM Wed 78 70 SW 5 1480 1050 0 Blue 2
10 PM Wed 76 68 SW 5 1362 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 75 67 S 2 948 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 75 67 S 2 948 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 74 66 S 2 525 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 74 66 SW 2 525 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 73 65 SW 2 525 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 72 64 SW 2 525 1050 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst