Detailed Predictions for: Little Black
Launch Altitude (f): 1050
LZ Altitude (f): 750
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

25 MAR 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Mon 48 40 NE 2 545 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 47 39 NE 2 545 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 47 39 NE 2 545 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 50 42 N 2 545 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 54 47 NW 2 545 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 59 54 NW 2 583 1050 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 64 61 W 7 1710 1325 275 Blue 7
12 Noon Mon 66 64 W 8 2035 1706 656 Blue 10
1 PM Mon 67 65 W 8 2138 1816 766 Blue 11
2 PM Mon 68 65 W 9 2138 1816 766 Blue 11
3 PM Mon 67 63 W 10 1930 1597 547 Blue 9
4 PM Mon 66 60 W 9 1600 1113 63 Blue 6
5 PM Mon 65 58 W 9 1329 1050 0 Blue 4
6 PM Mon 63 55 W 8 723 1050 0 Blue 1
7 PM Mon 60 52 W 6 545 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 58 50 NW 3 545 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 56 48 NW 2 545 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 55 47 NW 2 545 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 54 46 N 1 545 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 52 44 N 2 545 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 51 43 N 2 545 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 51 43 N 2 545 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 49 41 N 2 545 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 49 41 N 2 545 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 49 41 N 2 545 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 48 40 N 1 545 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 48 40 N 1 545 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 50 42 N 1 545 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 54 47 N 2 545 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 59 53 NW 5 545 1050 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 63 58 W 7 1329 1050 0 Blue 4
12 Noon Tue 66 61 W 8 1710 1325 275 Blue 7
1 PM Tue 66 61 W 9 1710 1325 275 Blue 7
2 PM Tue 67 62 W 10 1820 1488 438 Blue 8
3 PM Tue 66 60 W 10 1600 1113 63 Blue 6
4 PM Tue 66 59 W 10 1491 1050 0 Blue 5
5 PM Tue 65 57 W 9 1118 1050 0 Blue 3
6 PM Tue 63 55 W 7 723 1050 0 Blue 1
7 PM Tue 61 53 NW 5 545 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 59 51 NW 3 545 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 57 49 NW 2 545 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 57 49 NW 2 545 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 56 48 NW 2 545 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 55 47 NW 2 545 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 54 46 NW 3 545 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 53 45 NW 3 545 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 52 44 NW 3 545 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 52 44 NW 3 545 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 52 44 NW 2 545 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 51 43 NW 2 545 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 51 43 NW 2 545 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 52 44 NW 2 545 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 55 47 NW 2 545 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 58 51 W 3 545 1050 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 61 55 W 5 723 1050 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Wed 63 58 W 7 1329 1050 0 Blue 4
1 PM Wed 63 58 W 9 1329 1050 0 Blue 4
2 PM Wed 64 59 W 12 1491 1050 0 Blue 5
3 PM Wed 63 57 W 13 1118 1050 0 Blue 3
4 PM Wed 63 56 W 14 903 1050 0 Blue 2
5 PM Wed 62 54 W 13 583 1050 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 61 53 W 10 545 1050 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 58 50 W 8 545 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 57 49 W 6 545 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 56 48 NW 5 545 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 55 47 NW 6 545 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 54 46 NW 6 545 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 53 45 NW 6 545 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 52 44 NW 5 545 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 52 44 NW 5 545 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 51 43 NW 5 545 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 51 43 N 3 545 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 51 43 N 3 545 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 50 42 N 3 545 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 50 42 N 3 545 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 52 44 N 3 545 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 55 48 N 3 545 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 58 52 N 3 545 1050 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 61 57 W 8 1118 1050 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Thu 63 60 W 8 1600 1113 63 Blue 6
1 PM Thu 64 61 W 8 1710 1325 275 Blue 7
2 PM Thu 64 61 W 13 1710 1325 275 Blue 7
3 PM Thu 63 59 W 13 1491 1050 0 Blue 5
4 PM Thu 62 56 W 13 903 1050 0 Blue 2
5 PM Thu 62 55 W 12 723 1050 0 Blue 1
6 PM Thu 60 52 W 12 545 1050 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 57 49 W 12 545 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 55 47 W 5 545 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 53 45 W 5 545 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 52 44 W 5 545 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 52 44 SE 3 545 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 50 42 SE 3 545 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 49 41 SE 3 545 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 49 41 SE 3 545 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 47 39 SE 3 545 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 47 39 SE 3 545 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 47 39 E 5 545 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 46 38 E 5 545 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 46 38 E 5 545 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 48 40 NE 2 545 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 53 46 NE 2 545 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 58 53 NE 2 545 1050 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 63 59 W 6 1491 1050 0 Blue 5
12 Noon Fri 66 63 W 6 1930 1597 547 Blue 9
1 PM Fri 67 64 W 6 2035 1706 656 Blue 10
2 PM Fri 67 64 W 12 2035 1706 656 Blue 10
3 PM Fri 66 62 W 12 1820 1488 438 Blue 8
4 PM Fri 65 59 W 12 1491 1050 0 Blue 5
5 PM Fri 64 57 W 10 1118 1050 0 Blue 3
6 PM Fri 63 55 W 10 723 1050 0 Blue 1
7 PM Fri 60 52 W 10 545 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 58 50 NW 2 545 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 56 48 NW 2 545 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 55 47 NW 2 545 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 54 46 E 2 545 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 53 45 E 2 545 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 52 44 E 2 545 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 52 44 NE 5 545 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 50 42 NE 5 545 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 50 42 NE 5 545 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 50 42 NE 7 545 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 49 41 NE 7 545 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 49 41 NE 7 545 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 52 44 E 9 545 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 56 49 E 9 545 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 61 56 E 9 903 1050 0 Blue 2
11 AM Sat 66 62 NE 9 1820 1488 438 Blue 8
12 Noon Sat 69 66 NE 9 2240 1925 875 Blue 12
1 PM Sat 71 68 NE 9 2472 2133 1083 Blue 14
2 PM Sat 71 68 NW 9 2472 2133 1083 Blue 14
3 PM Sat 70 66 NW 9 2240 1925 875 Blue 12
4 PM Sat 69 63 NW 9 1930 1597 547 Blue 9
5 PM Sat 68 61 W 12 1710 1325 275 Blue 7
6 PM Sat 66 58 W 12 1329 1050 0 Blue 4
7 PM Sat 62 54 W 12 583 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 59 51 SE 3 545 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 57 49 SE 3 545 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 56 48 SE 3 545 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 55 47 E 5 545 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 53 45 E 5 545 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 52 44 E 5 545 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 51 43 NE 5 545 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 49 41 NE 5 545 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 49 41 NE 5 545 1050 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst