Detailed Predictions for: Little Black
Launch Altitude (f): 1050
LZ Altitude (f): 750
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

22 APR 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 53 45 S 1 495 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 54 46 S 1 495 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 57 49 S 1 495 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 61 54 SW 1 495 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 66 60 SW 3 594 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 70 66 W 6 1040 1050 0 Blue 6
11 AM Sun 74 71 W 7 1282 1136 86 Blue 11
12 Noon Sun 74 72 W 8 1330 1184 134 Blue 12
1 PM Sun 75 73 W 9 1378 1232 182 Blue 13
2 PM Sun 74 72 W 9 1330 1184 134 Blue 12
3 PM Sun 74 70 W 8 1233 1087 37 Blue 10
4 PM Sun 74 69 W 8 1185 1050 0 Blue 9
5 PM Sun 72 65 W 7 983 1050 0 Blue 5
6 PM Sun 68 60 W 6 594 1050 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 64 56 W 6 495 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 60 52 SW 3 495 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 58 50 SW 2 495 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 57 49 SW 2 495 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 56 48 S 2 495 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 55 47 S 1 495 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 54 46 S 1 495 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 54 46 S 2 495 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 53 45 S 1 495 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 53 45 SE 0 495 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 52 44 E 1 495 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 52 44 SE 1 495 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 52 44 SE 1 495 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 55 47 SW 0 495 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 60 52 W 2 495 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 66 58 W 3 541 1050 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 72 70 W 7 1233 1087 37 Blue 10
12 Noon Mon 74 73 W 8 1378 1232 182 Blue 13
1 PM Mon 73 72 W 8 1330 1184 134 Blue 12
2 PM Mon 73 71 W 9 1282 1136 86 Blue 11
3 PM Mon 73 70 W 8 1233 1087 37 Blue 10
4 PM Mon 72 67 W 8 1088 1050 0 Blue 7
5 PM Mon 70 63 W 7 796 1050 0 Blue 3
6 PM Mon 67 59 W 6 568 1050 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 62 54 W 5 495 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 58 50 W 3 495 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 56 48 W 2 495 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 55 47 SW 2 495 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 55 47 SW 1 495 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 55 47 SW 2 495 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 54 46 SW 2 495 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 54 46 SW 1 495 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 54 46 SW 1 495 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 54 46 SW 1 495 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 54 46 SE 0 495 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 53 45 SW 0 495 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 53 45 SW 1 495 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 55 47 W 1 495 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 60 52 W 2 495 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 66 58 W 5 541 1050 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 70 67 W 8 1088 1050 0 Blue 7
12 Noon Tue 73 70 W 9 1233 1087 37 Blue 10
1 PM Tue 72 70 W 9 1233 1087 37 Blue 10
2 PM Tue 73 70 W 9 1233 1087 37 Blue 10
3 PM Tue 72 68 W 9 1136 1050 0 Blue 8
4 PM Tue 72 66 W 9 1040 1050 0 Blue 6
5 PM Tue 70 63 W 8 796 1050 0 Blue 3
6 PM Tue 67 59 W 7 568 1050 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 63 55 W 5 495 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 59 51 W 2 495 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 58 50 W 2 495 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 57 49 W 2 495 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 57 49 SW 1 495 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 56 48 SW 1 495 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 56 48 SW 1 495 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 55 47 S 1 495 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 55 47 S 1 495 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 55 47 S 1 495 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 55 47 SW 1 495 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 54 46 SW 1 495 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 53 45 SW 1 495 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 54 46 W 6 495 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 57 49 W 6 495 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 62 54 W 6 495 1050 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 67 64 W 8 889 1050 0 Blue 4
12 Noon Wed 70 68 W 8 1136 1050 0 Blue 8
1 PM Wed 72 70 W 8 1233 1087 37 Blue 10
2 PM Wed 72 70 W 10 1233 1087 37 Blue 10
3 PM Wed 71 67 W 10 1088 1050 0 Blue 7
4 PM Wed 69 64 W 10 889 1050 0 Blue 4
5 PM Wed 67 60 W 9 594 1050 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 64 56 W 9 495 1050 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 61 53 W 9 495 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 58 50 W 6 495 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 57 49 W 6 495 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 56 48 W 6 495 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 55 47 NW 1 495 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 55 47 NW 1 495 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 55 47 NW 1 495 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 54 46 NW 0 495 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 54 46 NW 0 495 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 54 46 NW 0 495 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 53 45 NW 1 495 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 52 44 NW 1 495 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 52 44 NW 1 495 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 54 46 NW 6 495 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 58 50 NW 6 495 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 63 55 NW 6 495 1050 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 67 64 W 9 889 1050 0 Blue 4
12 Noon Thu 68 66 W 9 1040 1050 0 Blue 6
1 PM Thu 68 67 W 9 1088 1050 0 Blue 7
2 PM Thu 67 65 W 10 983 1050 0 Blue 5
3 PM Thu 67 64 W 10 889 1050 0 Blue 4
4 PM Thu 67 62 W 10 707 1050 0 Blue 2
5 PM Thu 66 59 W 9 568 1050 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 64 56 W 9 495 1050 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 60 52 W 9 495 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 57 49 W 6 495 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 55 47 W 6 495 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 54 46 W 6 495 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 53 45 W 1 495 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 53 45 W 1 495 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 52 44 W 1 495 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 52 44 NW 0 495 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 51 43 NW 0 495 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 51 43 NW 0 495 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 50 42 N 1 495 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 50 42 N 1 495 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 50 42 N 1 495 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 53 45 NW 5 495 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 58 50 NW 5 495 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 64 56 NW 5 495 1050 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 68 65 W 8 983 1050 0 Blue 5
12 Noon Fri 70 68 W 8 1136 1050 0 Blue 8
1 PM Fri 70 68 W 8 1136 1050 0 Blue 8
2 PM Fri 69 66 W 10 1040 1050 0 Blue 6
3 PM Fri 68 64 W 10 889 1050 0 Blue 4
4 PM Fri 67 62 W 10 707 1050 0 Blue 2
5 PM Fri 66 59 W 10 568 1050 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 64 56 W 10 495 1050 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 61 53 W 10 495 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 59 51 NW 6 495 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 57 49 NW 6 495 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 55 47 NW 6 495 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 54 46 N 1 495 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 53 45 N 1 495 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 52 44 N 1 495 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 51 43 NE 1 495 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 50 42 NE 1 495 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 49 41 NE 1 495 1050 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst