Detailed Predictions for: Little Black
Launch Altitude (f): 1050
LZ Altitude (f): 750
Sounding

Station:

 KNKX

Date/Time:

 3 SEP 2010

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
5 AM Fri 67 59 N 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 67 59 N 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 69 61 N 1 904 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 71 63 NW 2 993 1050 0 Blue 2
9 AM Fri 74 66 NW 2 1129 1050 0 Blue 5
10 AM Fri 79 72 NW 2 1321 1261 211 Blue 11
11 AM Fri 82 80 W 7 1444 1395 345 Blue 19
12 Noon Fri 82 81 W 7 1468 1410 360 Blue 20
1 PM Fri 82 81 W 7 1468 1410 360 Blue 20
2 PM Fri 81 80 W 10 1444 1395 345 Blue 19
3 PM Fri 81 78 W 10 1410 1365 315 Blue 17
4 PM Fri 81 76 W 10 1381 1335 285 Blue 15
5 PM Fri 79 73 W 9 1336 1281 231 Blue 12
6 PM Fri 75 67 W 9 1175 1050 0 Blue 6
7 PM Fri 71 63 W 9 993 1050 0 Blue 2
8 PM Fri 67 59 NW 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 66 58 NW 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 65 57 NW 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 65 57 N 0 440 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 65 57 N 0 440 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 64 56 N 0 440 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 63 55 NE 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 62 54 NE 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 62 54 NE 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 62 54 NE 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 64 56 NE 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 66 58 NE 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 70 62 N 0 949 1050 0 Blue 1
9 AM Sat 76 69 N 0 1261 1128 78 Blue 8
10 AM Sat 81 76 N 0 1381 1335 285 Blue 15
11 AM Sat 85 83 W 8 1570 1443 393 Blue 22
12 Noon Sat 84 83 W 8 1570 1443 393 Blue 22
1 PM Sat 85 84 W 8 1654 1467 417 Blue 23
2 PM Sat 84 83 W 12 1570 1443 393 Blue 22
3 PM Sat 82 79 W 12 1425 1380 330 Blue 18
4 PM Sat 80 75 W 12 1366 1321 271 Blue 14
5 PM Sat 77 70 W 9 1282 1174 124 Blue 9
6 PM Sat 73 65 W 9 1083 1050 0 Blue 4
7 PM Sat 69 61 W 9 904 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 66 58 W 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 66 58 W 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 66 58 W 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 67 59 SW 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 66 58 SW 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 65 57 SW 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 64 56 SW 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 63 55 SW 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 63 55 SW 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 63 55 S 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 64 56 S 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 66 58 S 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 68 60 S 1 700 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 71 64 S 1 1038 1050 0 Blue 3
10 AM Sun 74 68 S 1 1221 1082 32 Blue 7
11 AM Sun 77 74 W 9 1351 1302 252 Blue 13
12 Noon Sun 77 75 W 9 1366 1321 271 Blue 14
1 PM Sun 77 76 W 9 1381 1335 285 Blue 15
2 PM Sun 75 73 W 9 1336 1281 231 Blue 12
3 PM Sun 74 71 W 9 1302 1220 170 Blue 10
4 PM Sun 73 68 W 9 1221 1082 32 Blue 7
5 PM Sun 71 64 W 12 1038 1050 0 Blue 3
6 PM Sun 71 63 W 12 993 1050 0 Blue 2
7 PM Sun 67 59 W 12 440 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 65 57 W 12 440 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 63 55 W 12 440 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 63 55 W 12 440 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 63 55 S 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 62 54 S 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 62 54 S 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 62 54 S 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 62 54 S 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 61 53 S 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 60 52 SE 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 60 52 SE 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 60 52 SE 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 64 56 SE 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 68 60 SE 2 700 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 71 63 SE 2 993 1050 0 Blue 2
11 AM Mon 73 70 W 10 1282 1174 124 Blue 9
12 Noon Mon 74 73 W 10 1336 1281 231 Blue 12
1 PM Mon 74 73 W 10 1336 1281 231 Blue 12
2 PM Mon 75 74 W 10 1351 1302 252 Blue 13
3 PM Mon 75 72 W 10 1321 1261 211 Blue 11
4 PM Mon 73 68 W 10 1221 1082 32 Blue 7
5 PM Mon 71 65 W 9 1083 1050 0 Blue 4
6 PM Mon 68 60 W 9 700 1050 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 65 57 W 9 440 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 62 54 W 9 440 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 61 53 W 9 440 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 61 53 W 9 440 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 61 53 S 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 60 52 S 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 60 52 S 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 60 52 S 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 59 51 S 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 59 51 S 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 58 50 E 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 58 50 E 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 58 50 E 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 62 54 E 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 66 58 E 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 68 60 E 2 700 1050 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 70 67 SW 9 1175 1050 0 Blue 6
12 Noon Tue 71 69 SW 9 1261 1128 78 Blue 8
1 PM Tue 71 69 SW 9 1261 1128 78 Blue 8
2 PM Tue 72 70 SW 9 1282 1174 124 Blue 9
3 PM Tue 72 68 SW 9 1221 1082 32 Blue 7
4 PM Tue 70 65 SW 9 1083 1050 0 Blue 4
5 PM Tue 68 61 SW 9 904 1050 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 65 57 SW 9 440 1050 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 62 54 SW 9 440 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 59 51 SW 9 440 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 58 50 SW 9 440 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 58 50 SW 9 440 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 58 50 SE 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 57 49 SE 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 57 49 SE 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 57 49 SE 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 56 48 SE 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 56 48 SE 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 55 47 E 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 55 47 E 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 55 47 E 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 58 50 E 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 62 54 E 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 64 56 E 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 66 62 W 9 949 1050 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Wed 67 64 W 9 1038 1050 0 Blue 3
1 PM Wed 67 65 W 9 1083 1050 0 Blue 4
2 PM Wed 68 65 W 9 1083 1050 0 Blue 4
3 PM Wed 68 64 W 9 1038 1050 0 Blue 3
4 PM Wed 66 61 W 9 904 1050 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 64 57 W 12 440 1050 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 62 54 W 12 440 1050 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 60 52 W 12 440 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 58 50 W 12 440 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 57 49 W 12 440 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 56 48 W 12 440 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 56 48 NE 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 56 48 NE 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 56 48 NE 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 55 47 NE 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 55 47 NE 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 55 47 NE 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst