Detailed Predictions for: Little Black
Launch Altitude (f): 1050
LZ Altitude (f): 750
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Wed 52 44 SE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Wed 51 43 SE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Wed 51 43 SE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Wed 51 43 SE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Wed 52 44 SE 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Wed 56 48 SE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Wed 60 52 S 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Wed 64 56 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Wed 66 58 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Wed 67 59 SW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Wed 66 58 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Wed 66 58 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Wed 65 57 SW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Wed 62 54 SW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Wed 60 52 SW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Wed 59 51 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Wed 57 49 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Wed 56 48 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Wed 55 47 SE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Wed 54 46 SE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Thu 53 45 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Thu 54 46 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Thu 52 44 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Thu 52 44 SE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Thu 52 44 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Thu 51 43 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 51 43 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 51 43 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 52 44 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 54 46 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 57 49 S 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 59 51 S 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 61 53 S 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 61 53 S 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 60 52 S 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 61 53 S 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 60 52 S 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 57 49 S 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 56 48 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 55 47 SW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 54 46 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 53 45 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 52 44 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 51 43 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 51 43 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 51 43 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 50 42 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 50 42 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 50 42 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 49 41 SW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 49 41 S 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 49 41 S 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 50 42 SE 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 53 45 S 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 56 49 S 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 60 54 SW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 62 56 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 62 56 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 61 54 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 62 54 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 60 52 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 57 49 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 55 47 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 54 46 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 53 45 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 52 44 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 51 43 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 50 42 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 49 41 NE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 49 41 E 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 48 40 E 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 48 40 E 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 48 40 NE 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 47 39 NE 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 47 39 NE 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 47 39 NE 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 48 40 NE 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 54 47 NE 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 61 55 NE 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 66 60 NE 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 70 65 NE 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 71 65 E 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 71 64 E 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 70 63 E 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 69 61 E 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 64 56 E 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 61 53 E 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 59 51 NE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 57 49 NE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 55 47 NE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 54 46 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 53 45 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 52 44 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 52 44 N 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 50 42 N 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 50 42 N 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 50 42 NE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 48 40 NE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 48 40 NE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 48 40 E 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 49 41 E 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 55 48 E 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 61 54 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 67 61 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 70 64 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 71 65 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 71 64 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 70 62 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 68 60 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 64 56 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 60 52 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 59 51 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 56 48 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 54 46 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 53 45 SE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 52 44 SE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 51 43 SE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 51 43 SW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 49 41 SW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 49 41 SW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 49 41 E 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 47 39 E 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 47 39 E 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 47 39 E 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 48 40 E 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 53 46 E 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 58 52 E 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 62 56 E 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 65 59 E 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 66 60 E 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 66 59 E 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 65 58 E 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 64 56 E 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 60 52 E 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 57 49 E 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 55 47 NE 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 53 45 NE 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 51 43 NE 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 51 43 NE 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 49 41 NE 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 48 40 NE 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 48 40 NE 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 47 39 NE 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 46 38 NE 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst