Detailed Predictions for: Little Black
Launch Altitude (f): 1050
LZ Altitude (f): 750
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

18 MAY 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 51 43 SE 2 577 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 51 43 SE 3 577 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 52 44 SE 3 577 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 54 47 S 2 577 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 56 51 SW 2 577 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 58 55 SW 3 682 1050 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 62 59 W 8 1729 1050 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Sat 66 64 W 9 2861 2303 1253 Blue 8
1 PM Sat 68 66 W 9 3523 2641 1591 Blue 10
2 PM Sat 68 65 W 12 3121 2459 1409 Blue 9
3 PM Sat 68 64 W 12 2861 2303 1253 Blue 8
4 PM Sat 68 63 W 12 2654 1987 937 Blue 7
5 PM Sat 66 58 W 10 1458 1050 0 Blue 2
6 PM Sat 65 57 W 9 1152 1050 0 Blue 1
7 PM Sat 62 54 W 8 592 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 60 52 W 6 577 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 59 51 W 5 577 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 58 50 W 5 577 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 58 50 W 5 577 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 57 49 W 5 577 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 57 49 W 5 577 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 57 49 W 5 577 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 56 48 W 3 577 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 56 48 W 3 577 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 56 48 W 3 577 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 56 48 SW 5 577 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 56 48 SW 5 577 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 57 49 SW 6 577 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 59 51 SW 7 577 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 60 52 SW 9 577 1050 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 62 56 SW 10 776 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 64 58 SW 12 1458 1050 0 Blue 2
1 PM Sun 65 59 W 13 1729 1050 0 Blue 3
2 PM Sun 65 59 W 14 1729 1050 0 Blue 3
3 PM Sun 64 57 W 15 1152 1050 0 Blue 1
4 PM Sun 64 57 W 15 1152 1050 0 Blue 1
5 PM Sun 63 55 W 15 682 1050 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 62 54 W 14 592 1050 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 60 52 W 14 577 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 58 50 W 13 577 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 57 49 W 13 577 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 57 49 W 14 577 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 56 48 W 14 577 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 56 48 W 13 577 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 56 48 W 13 577 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 56 48 W 13 577 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 55 47 W 14 577 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 55 47 W 14 577 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 55 47 W 15 577 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 55 47 W 15 577 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 56 48 W 14 577 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 56 48 NW 14 577 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 58 51 W 14 577 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 59 52 W 13 577 1050 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 61 58 W 13 1458 1050 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Mon 63 61 W 14 2312 1450 400 Blue 5
1 PM Mon 64 62 W 14 2469 1719 669 Blue 6
2 PM Mon 65 62 W 15 2469 1719 669 Blue 6
3 PM Mon 64 60 W 14 1999 1145 95 Blue 4
4 PM Mon 64 59 W 14 1729 1050 0 Blue 3
5 PM Mon 63 56 W 13 776 1050 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 62 54 W 12 592 1050 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 60 52 W 9 577 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 58 50 W 8 577 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 57 49 W 7 577 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 56 48 W 6 577 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 56 48 W 6 577 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 55 47 W 6 577 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 55 47 W 7 577 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 55 47 W 8 577 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 54 46 W 9 577 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 54 46 SW 10 577 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 54 46 SW 10 577 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 54 46 SW 10 577 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 54 46 SW 10 577 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 56 48 W 14 577 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 57 49 W 14 577 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 58 50 W 14 577 1050 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 60 53 W 16 577 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 62 56 W 16 776 1050 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 64 58 W 16 1458 1050 0 Blue 2
2 PM Tue 64 57 W 21 1152 1050 0 Blue 1
3 PM Tue 64 57 W 21 1152 1050 0 Blue 1
4 PM Tue 63 56 W 21 776 1050 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 62 54 W 20 592 1050 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 61 53 W 20 577 1050 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 58 50 W 20 577 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 57 49 W 17 577 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 56 48 W 17 577 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 55 47 W 17 577 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 54 46 W 9 577 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 54 46 W 9 577 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 54 46 W 9 577 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 54 46 SW 6 577 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 53 45 SW 6 577 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 53 45 SW 6 577 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 53 45 S 6 577 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 53 45 S 6 577 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 54 46 S 6 577 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 55 47 S 7 577 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 57 49 S 7 577 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 58 50 S 7 577 1050 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 61 57 SW 8 1152 1050 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Wed 64 60 SW 8 1999 1145 95 Blue 4
1 PM Wed 65 61 SW 8 2312 1450 400 Blue 5
2 PM Wed 66 62 SW 14 2469 1719 669 Blue 6
3 PM Wed 66 61 SW 14 2312 1450 400 Blue 5
4 PM Wed 65 59 SW 14 1729 1050 0 Blue 3
5 PM Wed 64 57 W 10 1152 1050 0 Blue 1
6 PM Wed 62 54 W 10 592 1050 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 60 52 W 10 577 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 58 50 W 5 577 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 57 49 W 5 577 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 56 48 W 5 577 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 56 48 SW 2 577 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 55 47 SW 2 577 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 55 47 SW 2 577 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 55 47 SE 2 577 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 54 46 SE 2 577 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 54 46 SE 2 577 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 54 46 SE 2 577 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 54 46 SE 2 577 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 55 47 SE 2 577 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 56 49 SW 2 577 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 58 52 SW 2 577 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 60 55 SW 2 682 1050 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 63 60 W 8 1999 1145 95 Blue 4
12 Noon Thu 66 64 W 8 2861 2303 1253 Blue 8
1 PM Thu 67 65 W 8 3121 2459 1409 Blue 9
2 PM Thu 68 66 W 9 3523 2641 1591 Blue 10
3 PM Thu 68 64 W 9 2861 2303 1253 Blue 8
4 PM Thu 67 62 W 9 2469 1719 669 Blue 6
5 PM Thu 65 58 W 10 1458 1050 0 Blue 2
6 PM Thu 64 56 W 10 776 1050 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 62 54 W 10 592 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 59 51 W 6 577 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 58 50 W 6 577 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 57 49 W 6 577 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 57 49 S 2 577 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 56 48 S 2 577 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 56 48 S 2 577 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 56 48 W 2 577 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 56 48 W 2 577 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 55 47 W 2 577 1050 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst