Detailed Predictions for: Little Black
Launch Altitude (f): 1050
LZ Altitude (f): 750
Sounding

Station:

 KNKX

Date/Time:

 19 MAR 2010

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
5 AM Fri 53 45 E 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 52 44 E 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 52 44 E 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 52 44 NE 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 54 46 NE 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 56 48 NE 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 59 55 W 3 1821 1050 0 White 0
12 Noon Fri 61 58 W 3 2486 1050 0 White 0
1 PM Fri 64 62 W 3 2946 2762 1712 Blue 6
2 PM Fri 65 62 W 8 2946 2762 1712 Blue 6
3 PM Fri 65 61 W 8 2893 2694 1644 Blue 5
4 PM Fri 63 57 W 8 2265 1050 0 White 0
5 PM Fri 61 53 W 6 440 1050 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 58 50 W 6 440 1050 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 54 46 W 6 440 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 52 44 NW 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 53 45 NW 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 54 46 NW 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 56 48 E 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 56 48 E 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 56 48 E 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 55 47 E 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 55 47 E 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 54 46 E 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 54 46 E 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 54 46 E 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 55 47 E 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 57 49 E 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 62 55 E 2 1821 1050 0 White 0
10 AM Sat 68 63 E 2 2999 2831 1781 Blue 7
11 AM Sat 73 69 W 3 3571 3153 2103 Blue 13
12 Noon Sat 74 71 W 3 4249 3260 2210 Blue 15
1 PM Sat 74 71 W 3 4249 3260 2210 Blue 15
2 PM Sat 74 71 W 8 4249 3260 2210 Blue 15
3 PM Sat 73 69 W 8 3571 3153 2103 Blue 13
4 PM Sat 69 63 W 8 2999 2831 1781 Blue 7
5 PM Sat 66 58 W 7 2486 1050 0 White 0
6 PM Sat 63 55 W 7 1821 1050 0 White 0
7 PM Sat 61 53 W 7 440 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 59 51 W 7 440 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 58 50 W 7 440 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 58 50 W 7 440 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 59 51 NE 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 58 50 NE 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 58 50 NE 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 58 50 E 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 57 49 E 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 55 47 E 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 55 47 NE 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 53 45 NE 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 53 45 NE 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 54 46 NE 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 61 54 NE 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 68 61 NE 3 2893 2694 1644 Blue 5
11 AM Sun 75 71 N 2 4249 3260 2210 Blue 15
12 Noon Sun 77 74 N 2 5186 4210 3160 Blue 18
1 PM Sun 76 73 N 2 4901 3876 2826 Blue 17
2 PM Sun 77 73 N 2 4901 3876 2826 Blue 17
3 PM Sun 75 70 N 2 3912 3207 2157 Blue 14
4 PM Sun 72 66 N 2 3158 2994 1944 Blue 10
5 PM Sun 73 66 NW 7 3158 2994 1944 Blue 10
6 PM Sun 71 63 NW 7 2999 2831 1781 Blue 7
7 PM Sun 67 59 NW 7 2701 2326 1276 White 3
8 PM Sun 63 55 NW 7 1821 1050 0 White 0
9 PM Sun 61 53 NW 7 440 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 59 51 NW 7 440 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 58 50 W 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 57 49 W 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 56 48 W 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 54 46 W 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 53 45 W 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 52 44 W 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 51 43 W 4 440 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 50 42 W 4 440 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 50 42 W 4 440 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 53 45 W 4 440 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 59 52 W 4 440 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 64 57 W 4 2265 1050 0 White 0
11 AM Mon 67 62 W 8 2946 2762 1712 Blue 6
12 Noon Mon 68 64 W 8 3052 2889 1839 Blue 8
1 PM Mon 68 64 W 8 3052 2889 1839 Blue 8
2 PM Mon 69 65 W 8 3105 2941 1891 Blue 9
3 PM Mon 68 63 W 8 2999 2831 1781 Blue 7
4 PM Mon 68 62 W 8 2946 2762 1712 Blue 6
5 PM Mon 66 58 W 9 2486 1050 0 White 0
6 PM Mon 65 57 W 9 2265 1050 0 White 0
7 PM Mon 62 54 W 9 440 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 60 52 W 9 440 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 58 50 W 9 440 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 57 49 W 9 440 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 57 49 SE 8 440 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 56 48 SE 8 440 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 55 47 SE 8 440 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 54 46 SE 8 440 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 53 45 SE 8 440 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 52 44 SE 8 440 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 52 44 S 10 440 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 51 43 S 10 440 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 51 43 S 10 440 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 53 45 S 10 440 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 58 50 S 10 440 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 61 53 S 10 440 1050 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 63 57 SW 13 2265 1050 0 White 0
12 Noon Tue 64 58 SW 13 2486 1050 0 White 0
1 PM Tue 64 58 SW 13 2486 1050 0 White 0
2 PM Tue 65 59 SW 13 2701 2326 1276 White 3
3 PM Tue 64 58 SW 13 2486 1050 0 White 0
4 PM Tue 64 57 SW 13 2265 1050 0 White 0
5 PM Tue 63 55 W 14 1821 1050 0 White 0
6 PM Tue 62 54 W 14 440 1050 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 59 51 W 14 440 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 57 49 W 14 440 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 56 48 W 14 440 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 55 47 W 14 440 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 54 46 E 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 53 45 E 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 52 44 E 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 51 43 E 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 51 43 E 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 50 42 E 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 50 42 N 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 49 41 N 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 49 41 N 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 52 44 N 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 58 50 N 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 64 57 N 1 2265 1050 0 White 0
11 AM Wed 67 63 SW 3 2999 2831 1781 Blue 7
12 Noon Wed 68 65 SW 3 3105 2941 1891 Blue 9
1 PM Wed 68 65 SW 3 3105 2941 1891 Blue 9
2 PM Wed 69 66 SW 3 3158 2994 1944 Blue 10
3 PM Wed 68 64 SW 3 3052 2889 1839 Blue 8
4 PM Wed 68 62 SW 3 2946 2762 1712 Blue 6
5 PM Wed 66 59 W 7 2701 2326 1276 White 3
6 PM Wed 65 57 W 7 2265 1050 0 White 0
7 PM Wed 62 54 W 7 440 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 59 51 W 7 440 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 58 50 W 7 440 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 57 49 W 7 440 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 56 48 E 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 55 47 E 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 54 46 E 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 53 45 E 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 52 44 E 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 51 43 E 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst