Detailed Predictions for: Little Black
Launch Altitude (f): 1050
LZ Altitude (f): 750
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

18 SEP 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Wed 62 54 E 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 61 53 SE 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 61 53 E 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 63 55 SE 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 67 60 S 1 515 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 71 64 SW 2 1015 1050 0 Blue 2
11 AM Wed 76 73 W 5 2187 1710 660 Blue 11
12 Noon Wed 78 76 W 7 2889 2182 1132 Blue 14
1 PM Wed 77 75 W 8 2660 1988 938 Blue 13
2 PM Wed 78 75 W 9 2660 1988 938 Blue 13
3 PM Wed 77 73 W 9 2187 1710 660 Blue 11
4 PM Wed 75 70 W 8 1713 1511 461 Blue 8
5 PM Wed 73 66 W 7 1446 1050 0 Blue 4
6 PM Wed 70 62 W 7 596 1050 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 67 59 W 5 475 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 64 56 W 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 63 55 SW 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 63 55 SW 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 63 55 S 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 63 55 S 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 63 55 S 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 62 54 S 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 62 54 SE 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 61 53 SE 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 61 53 SE 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 60 52 SE 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 60 52 SE 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 62 54 SE 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 64 56 SE 5 440 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 68 60 S 5 515 1050 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 71 68 SW 7 1579 1246 196 Blue 6
12 Noon Thu 73 71 SW 8 1782 1577 527 Blue 9
1 PM Thu 73 71 W 9 1782 1577 527 Blue 9
2 PM Thu 74 72 W 10 1998 1644 594 Blue 10
3 PM Thu 73 69 W 12 1646 1444 394 Blue 7
4 PM Thu 71 66 W 10 1446 1050 0 Blue 4
5 PM Thu 70 63 W 9 778 1050 0 Blue 1
6 PM Thu 68 60 W 7 515 1050 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 66 58 SW 6 440 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 64 56 SW 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 63 55 SW 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 63 55 SE 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 62 54 SE 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 62 54 SE 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 61 53 SE 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 60 52 SE 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 60 52 SE 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 59 51 SE 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 59 51 SE 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 59 51 SE 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 60 52 E 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 62 54 E 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 66 58 NE 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 71 63 NW 3 778 1050 0 Blue 1
11 AM Fri 75 72 W 5 1998 1644 594 Blue 10
12 Noon Fri 77 75 W 7 2660 1988 938 Blue 13
1 PM Fri 77 75 W 8 2660 1988 938 Blue 13
2 PM Fri 78 76 W 9 2889 2182 1132 Blue 14
3 PM Fri 77 73 W 9 2187 1710 660 Blue 11
4 PM Fri 76 71 W 9 1782 1577 527 Blue 9
5 PM Fri 74 67 W 8 1513 1050 0 Blue 5
6 PM Fri 72 64 W 6 1015 1050 0 Blue 2
7 PM Fri 69 61 W 5 556 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 67 59 W 3 475 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 66 58 NW 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 66 58 NE 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 65 57 E 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 64 56 E 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 63 55 SE 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 62 54 S 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 61 53 S 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 60 52 SE 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 60 52 SE 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 60 52 SE 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 61 53 SE 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 63 55 E 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 68 61 E 1 556 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 73 67 E 1 1513 1050 0 Blue 5
11 AM Sat 77 74 W 5 2291 1777 727 Blue 12
12 Noon Sat 80 78 W 5 3027 2628 1578 Blue 16
1 PM Sat 81 79 W 5 3112 2884 1834 Blue 17
2 PM Sat 80 78 W 8 3027 2628 1578 Blue 16
3 PM Sat 81 77 W 8 2955 2285 1235 Blue 15
4 PM Sat 80 75 W 8 2660 1988 938 Blue 13
5 PM Sat 77 70 W 7 1713 1511 461 Blue 8
6 PM Sat 74 66 W 7 1446 1050 0 Blue 4
7 PM Sat 70 62 W 7 596 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 66 58 W 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 64 56 W 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 63 55 W 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 63 55 SW 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 62 54 SW 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 62 54 SW 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 61 53 SE 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 61 53 SE 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 61 53 SE 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 61 53 SE 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 61 53 SE 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 62 54 SE 1 440 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 64 56 W 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 69 62 W 2 596 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 75 69 W 2 1646 1444 394 Blue 7
11 AM Sun 80 76 SW 6 2889 2182 1132 Blue 14
12 Noon Sun 81 78 SW 6 3027 2628 1578 Blue 16
1 PM Sun 82 79 SW 6 3112 2884 1834 Blue 17
2 PM Sun 81 78 W 9 3027 2628 1578 Blue 16
3 PM Sun 80 76 W 9 2889 2182 1132 Blue 14
4 PM Sun 78 72 W 9 1998 1644 594 Blue 10
5 PM Sun 76 69 W 7 1646 1444 394 Blue 7
6 PM Sun 72 64 W 7 1015 1050 0 Blue 2
7 PM Sun 68 60 W 7 515 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 65 57 SW 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 64 56 SW 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 64 56 SW 2 440 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 64 56 S 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 63 55 S 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 62 54 S 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 61 53 S 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 61 53 S 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 62 54 S 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 62 54 S 5 440 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 63 55 S 5 440 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 63 55 S 5 440 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 64 56 S 8 440 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 66 58 S 8 440 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 68 61 S 8 556 1050 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 70 65 SW 9 1246 1050 0 White 3
12 Noon Mon 74 70 SW 9 1713 1511 461 Blue 8
1 PM Mon 76 72 SW 9 1998 1644 594 Blue 10
2 PM Mon 77 73 SW 10 2187 1710 660 Blue 11
3 PM Mon 78 73 SW 10 2187 1710 660 Blue 11
4 PM Mon 76 70 SW 10 1713 1511 461 Blue 8
5 PM Mon 74 67 SW 9 1513 1050 0 Blue 5
6 PM Mon 72 64 SW 9 1015 1050 0 Blue 2
7 PM Mon 70 62 SW 9 596 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 68 60 S 5 515 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 67 59 S 5 475 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 66 58 S 5 440 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 65 57 S 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 64 56 S 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 62 54 S 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 61 53 E 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 60 52 E 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 59 51 E 3 440 1050 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst