Detailed Predictions for: Little Black
Launch Altitude (f): 1050
LZ Altitude (f): 750
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

21 JUL 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 61 53 W 2 581 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 61 53 NW 2 581 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 61 53 NW 3 581 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 63 55 NW 3 581 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 67 59 NW 3 581 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 72 64 NW 5 734 1050 0 White 0
11 AM Sun 77 75 W 7 2224 2164 1114 Blue 11
12 Noon Sun 79 78 W 8 2339 2223 1173 Blue 14
1 PM Sun 80 79 W 9 2390 2242 1192 Blue 15
2 PM Sun 79 78 W 9 2339 2223 1173 Blue 14
3 PM Sun 79 76 W 9 2243 2184 1134 Blue 12
4 PM Sun 78 74 W 8 2204 2143 1093 Blue 10
5 PM Sun 76 70 W 8 2053 2047 997 White 6
6 PM Sun 74 67 W 7 1396 1050 0 White 3
7 PM Sun 71 63 W 7 600 1050 0 White 0
8 PM Sun 66 58 W 5 581 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 64 56 W 3 581 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 63 55 W 2 581 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 63 55 NW 2 581 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 62 54 W 2 581 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 63 55 W 2 581 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 63 55 W 2 581 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 62 54 W 1 581 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 62 54 NW 1 581 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 62 54 NW 1 581 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 62 54 NW 1 581 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 62 54 NW 1 581 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 64 56 NW 2 581 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 68 61 NW 2 600 1050 0 White 0
10 AM Mon 74 68 W 3 1616 1591 541 White 4
11 AM Mon 79 76 W 5 2243 2184 1134 Blue 12
12 Noon Mon 81 79 W 7 2390 2242 1192 Blue 15
1 PM Mon 82 80 W 8 2441 2285 1235 Blue 16
2 PM Mon 81 79 W 8 2390 2242 1192 Blue 15
3 PM Mon 81 78 W 8 2339 2223 1173 Blue 14
4 PM Mon 80 75 W 8 2224 2164 1114 Blue 11
5 PM Mon 79 73 W 7 2185 2122 1072 Blue 9
6 PM Mon 77 69 W 7 1834 1834 784 White 5
7 PM Mon 73 65 W 6 956 1050 0 White 0
8 PM Mon 68 60 W 5 581 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 67 59 W 3 581 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 66 58 W 2 581 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 66 58 W 2 581 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 65 57 W 1 581 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 66 58 SW 1 581 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 66 58 SW 1 581 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 65 57 W 1 581 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 65 57 NW 1 581 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 65 57 N 1 581 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 65 57 N 1 581 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 65 57 NW 1 581 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 67 59 W 2 581 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 71 65 W 3 956 1050 0 White 0
10 AM Tue 77 72 W 5 2165 2101 1051 Blue 8
11 AM Tue 82 77 W 6 2288 2203 1153 Blue 13
12 Noon Tue 84 80 W 7 2441 2285 1235 Blue 16
1 PM Tue 85 81 W 9 2509 2336 1286 Blue 17
2 PM Tue 84 80 W 10 2441 2285 1235 Blue 16
3 PM Tue 84 79 W 9 2390 2242 1192 Blue 15
4 PM Tue 83 77 W 9 2288 2203 1153 Blue 13
5 PM Tue 81 74 W 8 2204 2143 1093 Blue 10
6 PM Tue 79 71 W 6 2144 2079 1029 Blue 7
7 PM Tue 76 68 W 5 1616 1591 541 White 4
8 PM Tue 71 63 W 3 600 1050 0 White 0
9 PM Tue 69 61 W 2 600 1050 0 White 0
10 PM Tue 68 60 NW 2 581 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 68 60 NW 2 581 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 67 59 NW 1 581 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 68 60 W 1 581 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 68 60 W 1 581 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 68 60 W 1 581 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 67 59 W 1 581 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 67 59 NW 1 581 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 67 59 NW 1 581 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 67 59 NW 1 581 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 69 61 W 2 600 1050 0 White 0
9 AM Wed 73 67 W 2 1396 1050 0 White 3
10 AM Wed 78 73 W 2 2185 2122 1072 Blue 9
11 AM Wed 83 79 W 6 2390 2242 1192 Blue 15
12 Noon Wed 85 82 W 6 2580 2387 1337 Blue 18
1 PM Wed 86 83 W 6 2736 2438 1388 Blue 19
2 PM Wed 85 82 W 9 2580 2387 1337 Blue 18
3 PM Wed 85 81 W 9 2509 2336 1286 Blue 17
4 PM Wed 84 79 W 9 2390 2242 1192 Blue 15
5 PM Wed 82 75 SW 8 2224 2164 1114 Blue 11
6 PM Wed 79 71 SW 8 2144 2079 1029 Blue 7
7 PM Wed 75 67 SW 8 1396 1050 0 White 3
8 PM Wed 69 61 SW 3 600 1050 0 White 0
9 PM Wed 67 59 SW 3 581 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 66 58 SW 3 581 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 66 58 S 2 581 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 65 57 S 2 581 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 66 58 S 2 581 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 66 58 SW 2 581 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 66 58 SW 2 581 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 65 57 SW 2 581 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 66 58 SW 1 581 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 65 57 SW 1 581 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 65 57 SW 1 581 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 67 59 S 2 581 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 72 66 S 2 1177 1050 0 White 0
10 AM Thu 78 73 S 2 2185 2122 1072 Blue 9
11 AM Thu 84 81 W 7 2509 2336 1286 Blue 17
12 Noon Thu 86 84 W 7 2800 2504 1454 Blue 20
1 PM Thu 87 85 W 7 2863 2569 1519 Blue 21
2 PM Thu 86 84 W 9 2800 2504 1454 Blue 20
3 PM Thu 86 83 W 9 2736 2438 1388 Blue 19
4 PM Thu 85 80 W 9 2441 2285 1235 Blue 16
5 PM Thu 82 76 W 8 2243 2184 1134 Blue 12
6 PM Thu 80 73 W 8 2185 2122 1072 Blue 9
7 PM Thu 75 67 W 8 1396 1050 0 White 3
8 PM Thu 69 61 W 5 600 1050 0 White 0
9 PM Thu 66 58 W 5 581 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 66 58 W 5 581 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 65 57 S 2 581 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 64 56 S 2 581 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 65 57 S 2 581 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 65 57 N 2 581 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 65 57 N 2 581 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 64 56 N 2 581 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 64 56 W 1 581 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 64 56 W 1 581 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 64 56 W 1 581 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 66 59 SW 2 581 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 70 64 SW 2 734 1050 0 White 0
10 AM Fri 77 73 SW 2 2185 2122 1072 Blue 9
11 AM Fri 82 80 W 7 2441 2285 1235 Blue 16
12 Noon Fri 84 83 W 7 2736 2438 1388 Blue 19
1 PM Fri 84 84 W 7 2800 2504 1454 Blue 20
2 PM Fri 84 83 W 9 2736 2438 1388 Blue 19
3 PM Fri 84 82 W 9 2580 2387 1337 Blue 18
4 PM Fri 82 78 W 9 2339 2223 1173 Blue 14
5 PM Fri 80 74 W 8 2204 2143 1093 Blue 10
6 PM Fri 77 70 W 8 2053 2047 997 White 6
7 PM Fri 73 65 W 8 956 1050 0 White 0
8 PM Fri 66 58 W 5 581 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 64 56 W 5 581 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 63 55 W 5 581 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 62 54 SW 2 581 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 61 53 SW 2 581 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 62 54 SW 2 581 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 62 54 N 2 581 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 62 54 N 2 581 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 61 53 N 2 581 1050 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst