Detailed Predictions for: Little Black
Launch Altitude (f): 1050
LZ Altitude (f): 750
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

21 SEP 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Fri 61 53 N 2 495 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 60 52 N 2 495 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 60 52 N 2 495 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 61 53 W 3 495 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 65 58 W 3 519 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 69 64 W 5 1190 1050 0 Blue 4
11 AM Fri 73 70 W 8 1508 1409 359 Blue 10
12 Noon Fri 76 74 W 9 1706 1540 490 Blue 14
1 PM Fri 77 75 W 9 1762 1592 542 Blue 15
2 PM Fri 77 74 W 10 1706 1540 490 Blue 14
3 PM Fri 76 72 W 12 1594 1475 425 Blue 12
4 PM Fri 76 70 W 10 1508 1409 359 Blue 10
5 PM Fri 74 67 W 9 1410 1187 137 Blue 7
6 PM Fri 72 64 W 8 1190 1050 0 Blue 4
7 PM Fri 68 60 W 7 590 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 66 58 W 3 519 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 65 57 NW 3 495 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 64 56 NW 3 495 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 64 56 NW 3 495 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 63 55 W 2 495 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 63 55 W 2 495 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 63 55 NW 3 495 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 62 54 N 3 495 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 62 54 N 3 495 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 62 54 N 3 495 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 61 53 N 3 495 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 61 53 N 2 495 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 62 54 NW 2 495 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 67 59 NW 3 554 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 72 65 W 6 1345 1050 0 Blue 5
11 AM Sat 77 74 W 9 1706 1540 490 Blue 14
12 Noon Sat 80 78 W 10 1905 1760 710 Blue 18
1 PM Sat 81 79 W 10 1935 1815 765 Blue 19
2 PM Sat 81 78 W 12 1905 1760 710 Blue 18
3 PM Sat 80 76 W 12 1818 1648 598 Blue 16
4 PM Sat 80 74 W 10 1706 1540 490 Blue 14
5 PM Sat 77 70 W 9 1508 1409 359 Blue 10
6 PM Sat 75 67 W 8 1410 1187 137 Blue 7
7 PM Sat 71 63 W 7 1025 1050 0 Blue 3
8 PM Sat 68 60 W 3 590 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 67 59 W 3 554 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 66 58 W 2 519 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 66 58 W 1 519 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 66 58 NW 1 519 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 65 57 NW 1 495 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 65 57 NW 1 495 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 64 56 N 1 495 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 64 56 N 1 495 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 64 56 NW 2 495 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 63 55 N 1 495 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 63 55 NW 1 495 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 64 56 NW 1 495 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 68 60 W 2 590 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 72 65 W 5 1345 1050 0 Blue 5
11 AM Sun 76 72 W 9 1594 1475 425 Blue 12
12 Noon Sun 78 75 W 10 1762 1592 542 Blue 15
1 PM Sun 79 77 W 10 1865 1704 654 Blue 17
2 PM Sun 79 76 W 13 1818 1648 598 Blue 16
3 PM Sun 78 74 W 10 1706 1540 490 Blue 14
4 PM Sun 78 72 W 10 1594 1475 425 Blue 12
5 PM Sun 75 68 W 8 1443 1344 294 Blue 8
6 PM Sun 73 65 W 7 1345 1050 0 Blue 5
7 PM Sun 69 61 W 6 694 1050 0 Blue 1
8 PM Sun 66 58 W 3 519 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 65 57 W 2 495 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 64 56 W 2 495 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 64 56 NW 2 495 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 64 56 NE 1 495 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 63 55 E 1 495 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 63 55 S 1 495 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 62 54 SW 1 495 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 62 54 E 1 495 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 62 54 S 2 495 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 61 53 S 2 495 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 61 53 S 2 495 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 62 54 SE 1 495 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 66 58 SE 1 519 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 71 64 SE 1 1190 1050 0 Blue 4
11 AM Mon 75 72 W 9 1594 1475 425 Blue 12
12 Noon Mon 78 76 W 9 1818 1648 598 Blue 16
1 PM Mon 79 77 W 9 1865 1704 654 Blue 17
2 PM Mon 79 76 W 10 1818 1648 598 Blue 16
3 PM Mon 79 75 W 10 1762 1592 542 Blue 15
4 PM Mon 78 72 W 10 1594 1475 425 Blue 12
5 PM Mon 75 68 W 8 1443 1344 294 Blue 8
6 PM Mon 73 65 W 8 1345 1050 0 Blue 5
7 PM Mon 69 61 W 8 694 1050 0 Blue 1
8 PM Mon 66 58 W 2 519 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 65 57 W 2 495 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 64 56 W 2 495 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 64 56 NW 1 495 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 64 56 NW 1 495 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 63 55 NW 1 495 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 63 55 E 1 495 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 62 54 E 1 495 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 62 54 E 1 495 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 62 54 W 1 495 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 61 53 W 1 495 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 61 53 W 1 495 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 62 54 NW 1 495 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 66 59 NW 1 554 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 71 65 NW 1 1345 1050 0 Blue 5
11 AM Tue 76 73 W 8 1650 1507 457 Blue 13
12 Noon Tue 79 77 W 8 1865 1704 654 Blue 17
1 PM Tue 80 78 W 8 1905 1760 710 Blue 18
2 PM Tue 80 78 W 12 1905 1760 710 Blue 18
3 PM Tue 80 76 W 12 1818 1648 598 Blue 16
4 PM Tue 78 73 W 12 1650 1507 457 Blue 13
5 PM Tue 76 69 W 9 1476 1377 327 Blue 9
6 PM Tue 74 66 W 9 1377 1050 0 Blue 6
7 PM Tue 70 62 W 9 859 1050 0 Blue 2
8 PM Tue 67 59 NW 3 554 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 66 58 NW 3 519 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 66 58 NW 3 519 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 65 57 NW 1 495 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 65 57 NW 1 495 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 64 56 NW 1 495 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 64 56 N 2 495 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 63 55 N 2 495 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 63 55 N 2 495 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 63 55 NW 1 495 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 62 54 NW 1 495 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 62 54 NW 1 495 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 64 56 NW 1 495 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 68 61 NW 1 694 1050 0 Blue 1
10 AM Wed 73 67 NW 1 1410 1187 137 Blue 7
11 AM Wed 78 75 W 9 1762 1592 542 Blue 15
12 Noon Wed 81 79 W 9 1935 1815 765 Blue 19
1 PM Wed 82 80 W 9 1966 1863 813 Blue 20
2 PM Wed 82 79 W 12 1935 1815 765 Blue 19
3 PM Wed 82 78 W 12 1905 1760 710 Blue 18
4 PM Wed 80 74 W 12 1706 1540 490 Blue 14
5 PM Wed 78 71 W 9 1541 1442 392 Blue 11
6 PM Wed 76 68 W 9 1443 1344 294 Blue 8
7 PM Wed 72 64 W 9 1190 1050 0 Blue 4
8 PM Wed 69 61 W 2 694 1050 0 Blue 1
9 PM Wed 67 59 W 2 554 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 67 59 W 2 554 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 66 58 NW 1 519 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 66 58 NW 1 519 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 65 57 NW 1 495 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 65 57 NW 1 495 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 64 56 NW 1 495 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 64 56 NW 1 495 1050 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst