Detailed Predictions for: Little Black
Launch Altitude (f): 1050
LZ Altitude (f): 750
Sounding

Station:

 KNKX

Date/Time:

 11 MAR 2010

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
7 AM Thu 46 38 E 5 509 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 51 44 E 5 540 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 57 52 E 5 1726 1050 0 Blue 2
10 AM Thu 60 56 NW 3 2976 2106 1056 Blue 6
11 AM Thu 62 59 NW 3 3757 2956 1906 Blue 9
12 Noon Thu 62 60 NW 3 4015 3215 2165 Blue 10
1 PM Thu 62 59 W 6 3757 2956 1906 Blue 9
2 PM Thu 63 59 W 6 3757 2956 1906 Blue 9
3 PM Thu 61 55 W 6 2713 1707 657 Blue 5
4 PM Thu 60 53 NW 6 2121 1050 0 Blue 3
5 PM Thu 59 51 NW 6 1200 1050 0 Blue 1
6 PM Thu 55 47 NW 6 690 1050 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 53 45 N 4 590 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 52 44 N 4 540 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 51 43 N 4 509 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 51 43 NE 3 509 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 51 43 NE 3 509 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 50 42 NE 3 509 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 50 42 E 4 509 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 49 41 E 4 509 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 48 40 E 4 509 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 48 40 E 4 509 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 47 39 E 4 509 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 47 39 E 4 509 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 49 41 SE 4 509 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 54 47 SE 4 690 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 60 54 SE 4 2425 1189 139 Blue 4
10 AM Fri 63 59 W 8 3757 2956 1906 Blue 9
11 AM Fri 65 62 W 8 4937 3730 2680 Blue 12
12 Noon Fri 65 62 W 8 4937 3730 2680 Blue 12
1 PM Fri 65 61 W 8 4293 3473 2423 Blue 11
2 PM Fri 66 61 W 8 4293 3473 2423 Blue 11
3 PM Fri 64 58 W 8 3498 2695 1645 Blue 8
4 PM Fri 63 55 W 9 2713 1707 657 Blue 5
5 PM Fri 61 53 W 9 2121 1050 0 Blue 3
6 PM Fri 58 50 W 9 841 1050 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 56 48 W 5 741 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 55 47 W 5 690 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 54 46 W 5 640 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 53 45 N 2 590 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 53 45 N 2 590 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 52 44 N 2 540 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 52 44 E 2 540 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 51 43 E 2 509 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 50 42 E 2 509 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 50 42 E 3 509 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 49 41 E 3 509 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 49 41 E 3 509 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 50 42 E 3 509 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 53 45 E 3 590 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 57 49 E 3 791 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 59 54 W 8 2425 1189 139 Blue 4
11 AM Sat 60 55 W 8 2713 1707 657 Blue 5
12 Noon Sat 60 55 W 8 2713 1707 657 Blue 5
1 PM Sat 61 56 W 8 2976 2106 1056 Blue 6
2 PM Sat 61 55 W 8 2713 1707 657 Blue 5
3 PM Sat 60 53 W 8 2121 1050 0 Blue 3
4 PM Sat 59 51 W 11 1200 1050 0 Blue 1
5 PM Sat 57 49 W 11 791 1050 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 55 47 W 11 690 1050 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 53 45 W 11 590 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 52 44 W 11 540 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 52 44 W 11 540 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 51 43 S 2 509 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 51 43 S 2 509 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 51 43 S 2 509 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 50 42 S 2 509 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 50 42 S 2 509 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 49 41 S 2 509 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 49 41 E 5 509 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 48 40 E 5 509 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 48 40 E 5 509 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 50 42 E 5 509 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 55 48 E 5 741 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 60 54 E 5 2425 1189 139 Blue 4
10 AM Sun 63 59 N 3 3757 2956 1906 Blue 9
11 AM Sun 65 62 N 3 4937 3730 2680 Blue 12
12 Noon Sun 65 62 N 3 4937 3730 2680 Blue 12
1 PM Sun 65 62 N 3 4937 3730 2680 Blue 12
2 PM Sun 66 62 N 3 4937 3730 2680 Blue 12
3 PM Sun 64 58 N 3 3498 2695 1645 Blue 8
4 PM Sun 63 56 NW 7 2976 2106 1056 Blue 6
5 PM Sun 61 53 NW 7 2121 1050 0 Blue 3
6 PM Sun 57 49 NW 7 791 1050 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 55 47 NW 7 690 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 54 46 NW 7 640 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 53 45 NW 7 590 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 53 45 NE 3 590 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 52 44 NE 3 540 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 52 44 NE 3 540 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 51 43 NE 3 509 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 50 42 NE 3 509 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 50 42 NE 3 509 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 49 41 E 6 509 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 48 40 E 6 509 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 48 40 E 6 509 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 51 43 E 6 509 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 58 51 E 6 1200 1050 0 Blue 1
9 AM Mon 67 62 E 6 4937 3730 2680 Blue 12
10 AM Mon 71 67 E 6 6653 5578 4528 White 17
11 AM Mon 74 71 E 6 7146 6803 5753 Blue 21
12 Noon Mon 75 73 E 6 7360 7016 5966 Blue 23
1 PM Mon 75 72 E 6 7253 6909 5859 Blue 22
2 PM Mon 76 72 E 6 7253 6909 5859 Blue 22
3 PM Mon 74 68 E 6 6825 5917 4867 Blue 18
4 PM Mon 72 65 N 4 5979 4887 3837 Blue 15
5 PM Mon 70 62 N 4 4937 3730 2680 Blue 12
6 PM Mon 65 57 N 4 3238 2406 1356 Blue 7
7 PM Mon 63 55 N 4 2713 1707 657 Blue 5
8 PM Mon 61 53 N 4 2121 1050 0 Blue 3
9 PM Mon 60 52 N 4 1726 1050 0 Blue 2
10 PM Mon 60 52 NE 5 1726 1050 0 Blue 2
11 PM Mon 59 51 NE 5 1200 1050 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Tue 58 50 NE 5 841 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 57 49 NE 5 791 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 57 49 NE 5 791 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 56 48 NE 5 741 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 55 47 E 7 690 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 54 46 E 7 640 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 54 46 E 7 640 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 56 48 E 7 741 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 63 56 E 7 2976 2106 1056 Blue 6
9 AM Tue 71 66 E 7 6318 5234 4184 Blue 16
10 AM Tue 74 70 E 7 7039 6586 5536 Blue 20
11 AM Tue 76 73 E 7 7360 7016 5966 Blue 23
12 Noon Tue 77 74 E 7 7467 7122 6072 Blue 24
1 PM Tue 77 74 E 7 7467 7122 6072 Blue 24
2 PM Tue 78 74 E 7 7467 7122 6072 Blue 24
3 PM Tue 76 70 E 7 7039 6586 5536 Blue 20
4 PM Tue 74 67 NE 6 6653 5578 4528 White 17
5 PM Tue 72 64 NE 6 5636 4240 3190 Blue 14
6 PM Tue 67 59 NE 6 3757 2956 1906 Blue 9
7 PM Tue 64 56 NE 6 2976 2106 1056 Blue 6
8 PM Tue 62 54 NE 6 2425 1189 139 Blue 4
9 PM Tue 61 53 NE 6 2121 1050 0 Blue 3
10 PM Tue 61 53 NE 5 2121 1050 0 Blue 3
11 PM Tue 61 53 NE 5 2121 1050 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Wed 60 52 NE 5 1726 1050 0 Blue 2
1 AM Wed 59 51 NE 5 1200 1050 0 Blue 1
2 AM Wed 58 50 NE 5 841 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 57 49 NE 5 791 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 56 48 E 4 741 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 55 47 E 4 690 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 55 47 E 4 690 1050 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst