Detailed Predictions for: Little Black
Launch Altitude (f): 1050
LZ Altitude (f): 750
Sounding

Station:

 KNKX

Date/Time:

 4 FEB 2012

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
4 AM Sat 49 41 E 10 577 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 48 40 E 10 577 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 46 38 E 10 577 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 46 38 E 9 577 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 49 41 E 9 577 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 54 47 E 9 577 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 61 55 S 5 577 1050 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 66 60 S 5 979 1050 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Sat 69 64 S 5 1548 1119 69 Blue 6
1 PM Sat 69 63 W 7 1405 1050 0 Blue 5
2 PM Sat 70 64 W 7 1548 1119 69 Blue 6
3 PM Sat 68 61 W 7 1121 1050 0 Blue 3
4 PM Sat 66 58 NW 9 723 1050 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 63 55 NW 9 577 1050 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 59 51 NW 9 577 1050 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 59 51 E 6 577 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 58 50 E 6 577 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 57 49 E 6 577 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 56 48 SE 5 577 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 55 47 SE 5 577 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 54 46 SE 5 577 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 53 45 E 7 577 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 53 45 E 7 577 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 51 43 E 7 577 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 51 43 E 7 577 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 50 42 E 7 577 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 49 41 E 7 577 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 49 41 E 8 577 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 52 44 E 8 577 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 57 50 E 8 577 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 63 57 W 5 661 1050 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 68 62 W 5 1263 1050 0 Blue 4
12 Noon Sun 71 66 W 5 1832 1402 352 Blue 8
1 PM Sun 71 65 W 8 1690 1260 210 Blue 7
2 PM Sun 72 66 W 8 1832 1402 352 Blue 8
3 PM Sun 70 63 W 8 1405 1050 0 Blue 5
4 PM Sun 67 59 W 7 836 1050 0 Blue 1
5 PM Sun 63 55 W 7 577 1050 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 58 50 W 7 577 1050 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 57 49 SE 8 577 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 56 48 SE 8 577 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 55 47 SE 8 577 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 54 46 SE 3 577 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 53 45 SE 3 577 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 51 43 SE 3 577 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 51 43 E 5 577 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 50 42 E 5 577 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 48 40 E 5 577 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 48 40 E 8 577 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 47 39 E 8 577 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 45 37 E 8 577 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 45 37 E 8 577 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 48 40 E 8 577 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 53 46 E 8 577 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 60 53 W 8 577 1050 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 65 59 W 8 836 1050 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Mon 68 62 W 8 1263 1050 0 Blue 4
1 PM Mon 68 62 W 8 1263 1050 0 Blue 4
2 PM Mon 69 62 W 8 1263 1050 0 Blue 4
3 PM Mon 67 60 W 8 979 1050 0 Blue 2
4 PM Mon 65 57 W 7 661 1050 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 62 54 W 7 577 1050 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 58 50 W 7 577 1050 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 58 50 W 7 577 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 57 49 W 7 577 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 56 48 W 7 577 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 55 47 E 2 577 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 54 46 E 2 577 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 53 45 E 2 577 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 52 44 E 2 577 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 52 44 E 2 577 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 50 42 E 2 577 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 50 42 E 6 577 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 49 41 E 6 577 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 48 40 E 6 577 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 48 40 E 6 577 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 50 42 E 6 577 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 53 45 E 6 577 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 57 50 SE 6 577 1050 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 60 53 SE 6 577 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 62 55 SE 6 577 1050 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 61 54 SE 6 577 1050 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 62 55 SE 6 577 1050 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 61 53 SE 6 577 1050 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 60 52 W 5 577 1050 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 58 50 W 5 577 1050 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 55 47 W 5 577 1050 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 55 47 W 5 577 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 54 46 W 5 577 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 54 46 W 5 577 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 53 45 E 3 577 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 53 45 E 3 577 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 52 44 E 3 577 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 52 44 E 3 577 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 51 43 E 3 577 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 50 42 E 3 577 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 50 42 N 6 577 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 50 42 N 6 577 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 49 41 N 6 577 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 49 41 N 6 577 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 50 42 N 6 577 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 53 45 N 6 577 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 57 50 NW 8 577 1050 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 60 53 NW 8 577 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 62 55 NW 8 577 1050 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 61 54 NW 8 577 1050 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 62 55 NW 8 577 1050 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 61 53 NW 8 577 1050 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 60 52 N 7 577 1050 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 58 50 N 7 577 1050 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 56 48 N 7 577 1050 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 55 47 N 7 577 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 55 47 N 7 577 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 54 46 N 7 577 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 54 46 NE 10 577 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 53 45 NE 10 577 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 53 45 NE 10 577 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 53 45 NE 10 577 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 52 44 NE 10 577 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 51 43 NE 10 577 1050 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 51 43 E 10 577 1050 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 51 43 E 10 577 1050 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 50 42 E 10 577 1050 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 50 42 E 10 577 1050 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 52 44 E 10 577 1050 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 57 50 E 10 577 1050 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 63 57 NE 9 661 1050 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 68 62 NE 9 1263 1050 0 Blue 4
12 Noon Thu 70 65 NE 9 1690 1260 210 Blue 7
1 PM Thu 70 64 NE 9 1548 1119 69 Blue 6
2 PM Thu 71 65 NE 9 1690 1260 210 Blue 7
3 PM Thu 69 62 NE 9 1263 1050 0 Blue 4
4 PM Thu 67 59 NW 10 836 1050 0 Blue 1
5 PM Thu 65 57 NW 10 661 1050 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 61 53 NW 10 577 1050 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 60 52 NW 10 577 1050 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 59 51 NW 10 577 1050 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 58 50 NW 10 577 1050 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 58 50 E 12 577 1050 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 57 49 E 12 577 1050 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 55 47 E 12 577 1050 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 55 47 E 12 577 1050 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 54 46 E 12 577 1050 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 53 45 E 12 577 1050 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst