Detailed Predictions for: Lake Elsinore
Launch Altitude (f): 2650
LZ Altitude (f): 1350
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

22 APR 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 62 62 NW 3 1847 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 63 63 NW 3 1847 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 65 65 N 2 1847 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 68 69 N 2 2015 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 72 74 N 2 4963 2650 0 Blue 2
10 AM Sun 76 79 N 3 8314 5989 3339 Blue 7
11 AM Sun 78 83 N 5 11806 9405 6755 Blue 11
12 Noon Sun 80 86 N 6 12172 11779 9129 Blue 14
1 PM Sun 80 86 W 8 12172 11779 9129 Blue 14
2 PM Sun 81 87 W 12 12326 11865 9215 Blue 15
3 PM Sun 79 83 W 13 11806 9405 6755 Blue 11
4 PM Sun 78 81 W 15 11562 7085 4435 Blue 9
5 PM Sun 76 77 W 17 6359 4898 2248 Blue 5
6 PM Sun 74 74 W 16 4963 2650 0 Blue 2
7 PM Sun 72 72 W 15 3062 2650 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 70 70 W 8 2244 2650 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 68 68 W 7 1847 2650 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 66 66 W 6 1847 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 64 64 NW 3 1847 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 64 64 NW 3 1847 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 63 63 NW 3 1847 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 62 62 W 3 1847 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 62 62 W 3 1847 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 60 60 W 3 1847 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 60 60 NW 3 1847 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 61 61 NW 3 1847 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 63 63 NW 2 1847 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 66 67 NW 1 1847 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 69 72 W 0 3062 2650 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 73 77 N 1 6359 4898 2248 Blue 5
11 AM Mon 76 82 N 2 11720 8029 5379 Blue 10
12 Noon Mon 79 86 N 2 12172 11779 9129 Blue 14
1 PM Mon 80 87 W 3 12326 11865 9215 Blue 15
2 PM Mon 79 86 W 9 12172 11779 9129 Blue 14
3 PM Mon 79 84 W 13 11891 11501 8851 Blue 12
4 PM Mon 78 81 W 14 11562 7085 4435 Blue 9
5 PM Mon 76 77 W 15 6359 4898 2248 Blue 5
6 PM Mon 75 75 W 13 5589 3045 395 Blue 3
7 PM Mon 73 73 W 8 4060 2650 0 Blue 1
8 PM Mon 72 72 NW 5 3062 2650 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 70 70 NW 3 2244 2650 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 67 67 NW 2 1847 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 66 66 N 2 1847 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 64 64 NW 2 1847 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 63 63 NW 1 1847 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 62 62 NW 1 1847 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 61 61 NW 2 1847 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 60 60 W 2 1847 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 60 60 NW 3 1847 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 60 60 NW 2 1847 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 62 62 NW 3 1847 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 64 65 N 2 1847 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 69 71 N 1 2473 2650 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 73 77 N 2 6359 4898 2248 Blue 5
11 AM Tue 77 81 N 2 11562 7085 4435 Blue 9
12 Noon Tue 79 84 N 3 11891 11501 8851 Blue 12
1 PM Tue 79 84 NW 3 11891 11501 8851 Blue 12
2 PM Tue 80 85 W 10 12018 11694 9044 Blue 13
3 PM Tue 79 83 W 12 11806 9405 6755 Blue 11
4 PM Tue 78 80 W 13 9686 6321 3671 Blue 8
5 PM Tue 76 77 W 13 6359 4898 2248 Blue 5
6 PM Tue 75 75 W 12 5589 3045 395 Blue 3
7 PM Tue 74 74 W 10 4963 2650 0 Blue 2
8 PM Tue 72 72 W 8 3062 2650 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 70 70 W 8 2244 2650 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 67 67 W 8 1847 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 65 65 N 3 1847 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 64 64 N 3 1847 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 63 63 N 3 1847 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 62 62 NW 1 1847 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 61 61 NW 1 1847 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 60 60 NW 1 1847 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 59 59 N 2 1847 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 60 60 N 2 1847 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 62 62 N 2 1847 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 64 65 NW 3 1847 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 68 70 NW 3 2244 2650 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 71 74 NW 3 4963 2650 0 Blue 2
11 AM Wed 73 78 NW 6 7205 5545 2895 Blue 6
12 Noon Wed 74 80 NW 6 9686 6321 3671 Blue 8
1 PM Wed 75 81 NW 6 11562 7085 4435 Blue 9
2 PM Wed 75 81 W 10 11562 7085 4435 Blue 9
3 PM Wed 74 78 W 10 7205 5545 2895 Blue 6
4 PM Wed 73 76 W 10 6038 4016 1366 Blue 4
5 PM Wed 73 74 W 14 4963 2650 0 Blue 2
6 PM Wed 72 72 W 14 3062 2650 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 72 72 W 14 3062 2650 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 70 70 NW 8 2244 2650 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 67 67 NW 8 1847 2650 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 63 63 NW 8 1847 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 60 60 N 2 1847 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 59 59 N 2 1847 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 59 59 N 2 1847 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 59 59 N 1 1847 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 58 58 N 1 1847 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 57 57 N 1 1847 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 56 56 NW 2 1847 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 56 56 NW 2 1847 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 57 57 NW 2 1847 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 59 60 NW 3 1847 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 63 65 NW 3 1847 2650 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 66 70 NW 3 2244 2650 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 70 75 NW 6 5589 3045 395 Blue 3
12 Noon Thu 71 77 NW 6 6359 4898 2248 Blue 5
1 PM Thu 72 78 NW 6 7205 5545 2895 Blue 6
2 PM Thu 72 78 W 10 7205 5545 2895 Blue 6
3 PM Thu 72 76 W 10 6038 4016 1366 Blue 4
4 PM Thu 72 75 W 10 5589 3045 395 Blue 3
5 PM Thu 71 72 W 14 3062 2650 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 70 70 W 14 2244 2650 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 69 69 W 14 2015 2650 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 67 67 W 9 1847 2650 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 65 65 W 9 1847 2650 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 62 62 W 9 1847 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 60 60 NW 3 1847 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 59 59 NW 3 1847 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 58 58 NW 3 1847 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 56 56 NW 2 1847 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 55 55 NW 2 1847 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 54 54 NW 2 1847 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 54 54 NW 3 1847 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 55 55 NW 3 1847 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 56 56 NW 3 1847 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 59 60 W 3 1847 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 63 65 W 3 1847 2650 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 66 70 W 3 2244 2650 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 70 76 W 6 6038 4016 1366 Blue 4
12 Noon Fri 71 78 W 6 7205 5545 2895 Blue 6
1 PM Fri 72 79 W 6 8314 5989 3339 Blue 7
2 PM Fri 72 78 W 12 7205 5545 2895 Blue 6
3 PM Fri 70 75 W 12 5589 3045 395 Blue 3
4 PM Fri 69 72 W 12 3062 2650 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 68 69 W 15 2015 2650 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 66 66 W 15 1847 2650 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 65 65 W 15 1847 2650 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 64 64 W 9 1847 2650 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 63 63 W 9 1847 2650 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 62 62 W 9 1847 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 61 61 W 3 1847 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 60 60 W 3 1847 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 58 58 W 3 1847 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 57 57 NW 2 1847 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 56 56 NW 2 1847 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 55 55 NW 2 1847 2650 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst