Detailed Predictions for: Lake Elsinore
Launch Altitude (f): 2650
LZ Altitude (f): 1350
Sounding

Station:

 KNKX

Date/Time:

 4 FEB 2012

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
4 AM Sat 47 47 N 7 1972 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 48 48 N 7 1972 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 47 47 N 7 1972 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 48 48 N 7 1972 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 51 51 N 7 1972 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 55 56 N 7 1972 2650 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 56 58 N 8 4623 2650 0 Blue 1
11 AM Sat 57 59 N 8 6232 2650 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Sat 59 62 N 8 7294 6141 3491 Blue 5
1 PM Sat 63 65 NE 6 7591 7279 4629 Blue 8
2 PM Sat 62 64 NE 6 7492 7180 4530 Blue 7
3 PM Sat 62 63 NE 6 7393 6873 4223 Blue 6
4 PM Sat 62 62 E 8 7294 6141 3491 Blue 5
5 PM Sat 58 58 E 8 4623 2650 0 Blue 1
6 PM Sat 54 54 E 8 1972 2650 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 55 55 E 6 1972 2650 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 54 54 E 6 1972 2650 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 53 53 E 6 1972 2650 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 52 52 N 9 1972 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 52 52 N 9 1972 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 51 51 N 9 1972 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 51 51 N 8 1972 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 51 51 N 8 1972 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 50 50 N 8 1972 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 50 50 N 10 1972 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 50 50 N 10 1972 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 49 49 N 10 1972 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 50 50 N 12 1972 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 52 52 N 12 1972 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 56 57 N 12 2502 2650 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 57 59 N 9 6232 2650 0 Blue 2
11 AM Sun 58 60 N 9 6977 2650 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Sun 60 62 N 9 7294 6141 3491 Blue 5
1 PM Sun 63 65 NE 5 7591 7279 4629 Blue 8
2 PM Sun 62 64 NE 5 7492 7180 4530 Blue 7
3 PM Sun 62 63 NE 5 7393 6873 4223 Blue 6
4 PM Sun 62 62 N 7 7294 6141 3491 Blue 5
5 PM Sun 58 58 N 7 4623 2650 0 Blue 1
6 PM Sun 54 54 N 7 1972 2650 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 55 55 E 7 1972 2650 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 54 54 E 7 1972 2650 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 53 53 E 7 1972 2650 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 52 52 E 1 1972 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 52 52 E 1 1972 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 51 51 E 1 1972 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 51 51 N 8 1972 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 51 51 N 8 1972 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 50 50 N 8 1972 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 50 50 NE 3 1972 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 50 50 NE 3 1972 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 49 49 NE 3 1972 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 50 50 NE 3 1972 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 52 52 NE 3 1972 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 55 56 NE 3 1972 2650 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 56 57 SW 3 2502 2650 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 56 58 SW 3 4623 2650 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Mon 58 60 SW 3 6977 2650 0 Blue 3
1 PM Mon 61 63 SW 3 7393 6873 4223 Blue 6
2 PM Mon 60 61 SW 3 7196 4506 1856 Blue 4
3 PM Mon 60 60 SW 3 6977 2650 0 Blue 3
4 PM Mon 60 60 SW 7 6977 2650 0 Blue 3
5 PM Mon 57 57 SW 7 2502 2650 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 54 54 SW 7 1972 2650 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 54 54 SW 7 1972 2650 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 53 53 SW 7 1972 2650 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 53 53 SW 7 1972 2650 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 52 52 E 3 1972 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 51 51 E 3 1972 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 51 51 E 3 1972 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 50 50 E 3 1972 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 50 50 E 3 1972 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 50 50 E 3 1972 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 50 50 E 2 1972 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 50 50 E 2 1972 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 49 49 E 2 1972 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 50 50 E 2 1972 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 51 51 E 2 1972 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 52 52 E 2 1972 2650 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 53 54 SE 7 1972 2650 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 53 54 SE 7 1972 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 54 55 SE 7 1972 2650 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 56 57 SE 7 2502 2650 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 55 56 SE 7 1972 2650 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 55 55 SE 7 1972 2650 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 55 55 W 5 1972 2650 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 52 52 W 5 1972 2650 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 50 50 W 5 1972 2650 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 50 50 W 5 1972 2650 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 50 50 W 5 1972 2650 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 49 49 W 5 1972 2650 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 48 48 N 3 1972 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 48 48 N 3 1972 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 48 48 N 3 1972 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 47 47 N 3 1972 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 47 47 N 3 1972 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 47 47 N 3 1972 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 46 46 N 9 1972 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 47 47 N 9 1972 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 46 46 N 9 1972 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 47 47 N 9 1972 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 49 49 N 9 1972 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 51 51 N 9 1972 2650 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 52 53 N 10 1972 2650 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 53 54 N 10 1972 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 55 56 N 10 1972 2650 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 57 58 N 10 4623 2650 0 Blue 1
2 PM Wed 56 57 N 10 2502 2650 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 56 56 N 10 1972 2650 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 56 56 N 13 1972 2650 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 55 55 N 13 1972 2650 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 53 53 N 13 1972 2650 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 53 53 N 13 1972 2650 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 53 53 N 13 1972 2650 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 53 53 N 13 1972 2650 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 52 52 NE 13 1972 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 52 52 NE 13 1972 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 52 52 NE 13 1972 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 52 52 NE 13 1972 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 52 52 NE 13 1972 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 52 52 NE 13 1972 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 51 51 NE 12 1972 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 51 51 NE 12 1972 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 51 51 NE 12 1972 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 52 52 NE 12 1972 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 54 54 NE 12 1972 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 58 59 NE 12 6232 2650 0 Blue 2
10 AM Thu 59 61 N 10 7196 4506 1856 Blue 4
11 AM Thu 60 63 N 10 7393 6873 4223 Blue 6
12 Noon Thu 62 65 N 10 7591 7279 4629 Blue 8
1 PM Thu 65 68 N 10 8273 7574 4924 Blue 11
2 PM Thu 64 66 N 10 7690 7377 4727 Blue 9
3 PM Thu 64 65 N 10 7591 7279 4629 Blue 8
4 PM Thu 64 64 N 10 7492 7180 4530 Blue 7
5 PM Thu 61 61 N 10 7196 4506 1856 Blue 4
6 PM Thu 59 59 N 10 6232 2650 0 Blue 2
7 PM Thu 59 59 N 10 6232 2650 0 Blue 2
8 PM Thu 59 59 N 10 6232 2650 0 Blue 2
9 PM Thu 58 58 N 10 4623 2650 0 Blue 1
10 PM Thu 57 57 NE 9 2502 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 57 57 NE 9 2502 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 57 57 NE 9 2502 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 56 56 NE 9 1972 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 56 56 NE 9 1972 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 56 56 NE 9 1972 2650 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst