Detailed Predictions for: Lake Elsinore
Launch Altitude (f): 2650
LZ Altitude (f): 1350
Sounding

Station:

 KNKX

Date/Time:

 11 MAR 2010

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
7 AM Thu 41 41 N 8 1946 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 46 47 N 8 3442 2650 0 Blue 3
9 AM Thu 52 55 N 8 6334 5239 2589 Blue 11
10 AM Thu 53 57 NE 4 6837 5944 3294 Blue 13
11 AM Thu 54 59 NE 4 7056 6633 3983 Blue 15
12 Noon Thu 57 62 NE 4 7385 7039 4389 Blue 18
1 PM Thu 60 65 N 3 8096 7367 4717 Blue 21
2 PM Thu 60 64 N 3 7768 7258 4608 Blue 20
3 PM Thu 60 62 N 3 7385 7039 4389 Blue 18
4 PM Thu 59 60 NW 4 7166 6821 4171 Blue 16
5 PM Thu 57 57 NW 4 6837 5944 3294 Blue 13
6 PM Thu 55 55 NW 4 6334 5239 2589 Blue 11
7 PM Thu 53 53 NW 4 5630 4224 1574 Blue 9
8 PM Thu 53 53 NW 4 5630 4224 1574 Blue 9
9 PM Thu 52 52 NW 4 5271 3962 1312 Blue 8
10 PM Thu 52 52 NE 3 5271 3962 1312 Blue 8
11 PM Thu 52 52 NE 3 5271 3962 1312 Blue 8
12 Midnight Fri 52 52 NE 3 5271 3962 1312 Blue 8
1 AM Fri 51 51 NE 3 4908 3699 1049 Blue 7
2 AM Fri 50 50 NE 3 4239 3434 784 Blue 6
3 AM Fri 50 50 NE 3 4239 3434 784 Blue 6
4 AM Fri 50 50 NE 3 4239 3434 784 Blue 6
5 AM Fri 49 49 NE 3 3974 3168 518 Blue 5
6 AM Fri 49 49 NE 3 3974 3168 518 Blue 5
7 AM Fri 50 50 NE 2 4239 3434 784 Blue 6
8 AM Fri 54 55 NE 2 6334 5239 2589 Blue 11
9 AM Fri 58 60 NE 2 7166 6821 4171 Blue 16
10 AM Fri 58 61 W 6 7275 6930 4280 Blue 17
11 AM Fri 59 63 W 6 7495 7149 4499 Blue 19
12 Noon Fri 62 67 W 6 8741 7711 5061 Blue 23
1 PM Fri 63 67 W 6 8741 7711 5061 Blue 23
2 PM Fri 63 66 W 6 8420 7476 4826 Blue 22
3 PM Fri 63 65 W 6 8096 7367 4717 Blue 21
4 PM Fri 61 61 W 8 7275 6930 4280 Blue 17
5 PM Fri 59 59 W 8 7056 6633 3983 Blue 15
6 PM Fri 55 55 W 8 6334 5239 2589 Blue 11
7 PM Fri 53 53 W 5 5630 4224 1574 Blue 9
8 PM Fri 52 52 W 5 5271 3962 1312 Blue 8
9 PM Fri 51 51 W 5 4908 3699 1049 Blue 7
10 PM Fri 52 52 W 2 5271 3962 1312 Blue 8
11 PM Fri 51 51 W 2 4908 3699 1049 Blue 7
12 Midnight Sat 51 51 W 2 4908 3699 1049 Blue 7
1 AM Sat 50 50 SE 2 4239 3434 784 Blue 6
2 AM Sat 49 49 SE 2 3974 3168 518 Blue 5
3 AM Sat 48 48 SE 2 3709 2901 251 Blue 4
4 AM Sat 48 48 S 2 3709 2901 251 Blue 4
5 AM Sat 48 48 S 2 3709 2901 251 Blue 4
6 AM Sat 47 47 S 2 3442 2650 0 Blue 3
7 AM Sat 48 48 S 2 3709 2901 251 Blue 4
8 AM Sat 50 50 S 2 4239 3434 784 Blue 6
9 AM Sat 52 53 S 2 5630 4224 1574 Blue 9
10 AM Sat 52 55 SW 9 6334 5239 2589 Blue 11
11 AM Sat 53 57 SW 9 6837 5944 3294 Blue 13
12 Noon Sat 54 58 SW 9 6946 6291 3641 Blue 14
1 PM Sat 55 58 SW 9 6946 6291 3641 Blue 14
2 PM Sat 55 58 SW 9 6946 6291 3641 Blue 14
3 PM Sat 54 55 SW 9 6334 5239 2589 Blue 11
4 PM Sat 54 54 SW 9 5984 4874 2224 Blue 10
5 PM Sat 52 52 SW 9 5271 3962 1312 Blue 8
6 PM Sat 50 50 SW 9 4239 3434 784 Blue 6
7 PM Sat 49 49 SW 9 3974 3168 518 Blue 5
8 PM Sat 48 48 SW 9 3709 2901 251 Blue 4
9 PM Sat 48 48 SW 9 3709 2901 251 Blue 4
10 PM Sat 48 48 SE 4 3709 2901 251 Blue 4
11 PM Sat 47 47 SE 4 3442 2650 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Sun 47 47 SE 4 3442 2650 0 Blue 3
1 AM Sun 47 47 SE 4 3442 2650 0 Blue 3
2 AM Sun 46 46 SE 4 3174 2650 0 Blue 2
3 AM Sun 46 46 SE 4 3174 2650 0 Blue 2
4 AM Sun 46 46 N 10 3174 2650 0 Blue 2
5 AM Sun 45 45 N 10 2904 2650 0 Blue 1
6 AM Sun 45 45 N 10 2904 2650 0 Blue 1
7 AM Sun 46 46 N 10 3174 2650 0 Blue 2
8 AM Sun 51 52 N 10 5271 3962 1312 Blue 8
9 AM Sun 55 57 N 10 6837 5944 3294 Blue 13
10 AM Sun 56 60 N 7 7166 6821 4171 Blue 16
11 AM Sun 57 62 N 7 7385 7039 4389 Blue 18
12 Noon Sun 60 65 N 7 8096 7367 4717 Blue 21
1 PM Sun 62 67 N 7 8741 7711 5061 Blue 23
2 PM Sun 62 66 N 7 8420 7476 4826 Blue 22
3 PM Sun 62 64 N 7 7768 7258 4608 Blue 20
4 PM Sun 62 63 N 9 7495 7149 4499 Blue 19
5 PM Sun 60 60 N 9 7166 6821 4171 Blue 16
6 PM Sun 58 58 N 9 6946 6291 3641 Blue 14
7 PM Sun 57 57 N 9 6837 5944 3294 Blue 13
8 PM Sun 56 56 N 9 6681 5593 2943 Blue 12
9 PM Sun 56 56 N 9 6681 5593 2943 Blue 12
10 PM Sun 56 56 NE 9 6681 5593 2943 Blue 12
11 PM Sun 55 55 NE 9 6334 5239 2589 Blue 11
12 Midnight Mon 55 55 NE 9 6334 5239 2589 Blue 11
1 AM Mon 55 55 NE 9 6334 5239 2589 Blue 11
2 AM Mon 54 54 NE 9 5984 4874 2224 Blue 10
3 AM Mon 54 54 NE 9 5984 4874 2224 Blue 10
4 AM Mon 54 54 NE 6 5984 4874 2224 Blue 10
5 AM Mon 53 53 NE 6 5630 4224 1574 Blue 9
6 AM Mon 53 53 NE 6 5630 4224 1574 Blue 9
7 AM Mon 54 54 NE 6 5984 4874 2224 Blue 10
8 AM Mon 59 60 NE 6 7166 6821 4171 Blue 16
9 AM Mon 63 66 NE 6 8420 7476 4826 Blue 22
10 AM Mon 64 68 NE 5 9005 8035 5385 Blue 24
11 AM Mon 65 70 NE 5 9284 8674 6024 Blue 26
12 Noon Mon 68 74 NE 5 9840 9390 6740 Blue 30
1 PM Mon 70 75 NE 5 9979 9529 6879 Blue 31
2 PM Mon 70 74 NE 5 9840 9390 6740 Blue 30
3 PM Mon 70 72 NE 5 9562 9113 6463 Blue 28
4 PM Mon 69 70 E 5 9284 8674 6024 Blue 26
5 PM Mon 66 66 E 5 8420 7476 4826 Blue 22
6 PM Mon 63 63 E 5 7495 7149 4499 Blue 19
7 PM Mon 62 62 E 5 7385 7039 4389 Blue 18
8 PM Mon 61 61 E 5 7275 6930 4280 Blue 17
9 PM Mon 60 60 E 5 7166 6821 4171 Blue 16
10 PM Mon 60 60 E 5 7166 6821 4171 Blue 16
11 PM Mon 60 60 E 5 7166 6821 4171 Blue 16
12 Midnight Tue 59 59 E 5 7056 6633 3983 Blue 15
1 AM Tue 59 59 E 5 7056 6633 3983 Blue 15
2 AM Tue 58 58 E 5 6946 6291 3641 Blue 14
3 AM Tue 57 57 E 5 6837 5944 3294 Blue 13
4 AM Tue 57 57 E 6 6837 5944 3294 Blue 13
5 AM Tue 57 57 E 6 6837 5944 3294 Blue 13
6 AM Tue 56 56 E 6 6681 5593 2943 Blue 12
7 AM Tue 57 57 E 6 6837 5944 3294 Blue 13
8 AM Tue 61 62 E 6 7385 7039 4389 Blue 18
9 AM Tue 65 68 E 6 9005 8035 5385 Blue 24
10 AM Tue 66 70 E 8 9284 8674 6024 Blue 26
11 AM Tue 67 72 E 8 9562 9113 6463 Blue 28
12 Noon Tue 69 74 E 8 9840 9390 6740 Blue 30
1 PM Tue 71 76 E 8 10229 9667 7017 Blue 32
2 PM Tue 71 74 E 8 9840 9390 6740 Blue 30
3 PM Tue 71 73 E 8 9701 9252 6602 Blue 29
4 PM Tue 70 71 SE 6 9423 8975 6325 Blue 27
5 PM Tue 67 67 SE 6 8741 7711 5061 Blue 23
6 PM Tue 64 64 SE 6 7768 7258 4608 Blue 20
7 PM Tue 62 62 SE 6 7385 7039 4389 Blue 18
8 PM Tue 61 61 SE 6 7275 6930 4280 Blue 17
9 PM Tue 60 60 SE 6 7166 6821 4171 Blue 16
10 PM Tue 60 60 E 4 7166 6821 4171 Blue 16
11 PM Tue 60 60 E 4 7166 6821 4171 Blue 16
12 Midnight Wed 59 59 E 4 7056 6633 3983 Blue 15
1 AM Wed 59 59 E 4 7056 6633 3983 Blue 15
2 AM Wed 58 58 E 4 6946 6291 3641 Blue 14
3 AM Wed 57 57 E 4 6837 5944 3294 Blue 13
4 AM Wed 57 57 E 3 6837 5944 3294 Blue 13
5 AM Wed 57 57 E 3 6837 5944 3294 Blue 13
6 AM Wed 56 56 E 3 6681 5593 2943 Blue 12

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst