Detailed Predictions for: Lake Elsinore
Launch Altitude (f): 2650
LZ Altitude (f): 1350
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

21 JAN 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Sun 43 43 N 10 2375 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 42 42 N 9 2375 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 42 42 N 8 2375 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 42 42 N 7 2375 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 44 44 N 7 2375 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 46 47 N 8 3729 2650 0 Blue 1
10 AM Sun 49 50 N 9 5181 3717 1067 Blue 4
11 AM Sun 51 53 N 8 5788 5157 2507 Blue 7
12 Noon Sun 52 54 N 8 5915 5520 2870 Blue 8
1 PM Sun 53 55 N 7 6669 5647 2997 Blue 9
2 PM Sun 54 55 N 6 6669 5647 2997 Blue 9
3 PM Sun 53 53 NW 6 5788 5157 2507 Blue 7
4 PM Sun 53 53 NW 6 5788 5157 2507 Blue 7
5 PM Sun 51 51 W 7 5532 4026 1376 Blue 5
6 PM Sun 49 49 W 8 4554 2705 55 Blue 3
7 PM Sun 47 47 NW 7 3729 2650 0 Blue 1
8 PM Sun 46 46 NW 6 2725 2650 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 45 45 NW 6 2375 2650 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 44 44 N 3 2375 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 43 43 N 3 2375 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 42 42 N 2 2375 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 43 43 NW 3 2375 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 43 43 NW 5 2375 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 44 44 NW 3 2375 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 44 44 NW 3 2375 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 43 43 NW 3 2375 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 42 42 N 3 2375 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 42 42 N 3 2375 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 44 44 N 3 2375 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 47 47 N 3 3729 2650 0 Blue 1
10 AM Mon 51 52 N 3 5660 4430 1780 Blue 6
11 AM Mon 54 56 N 3 7358 5774 3124 Blue 10
12 Noon Mon 56 58 N 3 7772 6505 3855 Blue 12
1 PM Mon 58 60 N 5 8149 7530 4880 Blue 14
2 PM Mon 60 61 N 5 8267 7736 5086 Blue 15
3 PM Mon 60 60 N 6 8149 7530 4880 Blue 14
4 PM Mon 61 61 N 9 8267 7736 5086 Blue 15
5 PM Mon 59 59 N 8 7979 7324 4674 Blue 13
6 PM Mon 56 56 N 8 7358 5774 3124 Blue 10
7 PM Mon 54 54 N 7 5915 5520 2870 Blue 8
8 PM Mon 53 53 N 7 5788 5157 2507 Blue 7
9 PM Mon 52 52 N 8 5660 4430 1780 Blue 6
10 PM Mon 52 52 N 7 5660 4430 1780 Blue 6
11 PM Mon 52 52 N 8 5660 4430 1780 Blue 6
12 Midnight Tue 51 51 N 9 5532 4026 1376 Blue 5
1 AM Tue 51 51 N 12 5532 4026 1376 Blue 5
2 AM Tue 51 51 N 12 5532 4026 1376 Blue 5
3 AM Tue 50 50 N 10 5181 3717 1067 Blue 4
4 AM Tue 50 50 N 10 5181 3717 1067 Blue 4
5 AM Tue 49 49 N 10 4554 2705 55 Blue 3
6 AM Tue 48 48 N 9 4041 2650 0 Blue 2
7 AM Tue 49 49 N 12 4554 2705 55 Blue 3
8 AM Tue 51 51 N 12 5532 4026 1376 Blue 5
9 AM Tue 55 56 N 13 7358 5774 3124 Blue 10
10 AM Tue 59 61 N 13 8267 7736 5086 Blue 15
11 AM Tue 62 64 N 10 9374 8244 5594 Blue 18
12 Noon Tue 65 68 N 13 10507 9727 7077 Blue 22
1 PM Tue 67 69 N 10 10649 10175 7525 Blue 23
2 PM Tue 68 70 N 8 10790 10327 7677 Blue 24
3 PM Tue 68 69 NE 3 10649 10175 7525 Blue 23
4 PM Tue 68 68 NE 2 10507 9727 7077 Blue 22
5 PM Tue 67 67 N 2 10365 9265 6615 Blue 21
6 PM Tue 64 64 N 5 9374 8244 5594 Blue 18
7 PM Tue 62 62 N 1 8404 7941 5291 Blue 16
8 PM Tue 60 60 NW 2 8149 7530 4880 Blue 14
9 PM Tue 59 59 N 3 7979 7324 4674 Blue 13
10 PM Tue 58 58 NW 7 7772 6505 3855 Blue 12
11 PM Tue 57 57 NW 8 7565 5901 3251 Blue 11
12 Midnight Wed 55 55 NW 7 6669 5647 2997 Blue 9
1 AM Wed 54 54 N 6 5915 5520 2870 Blue 8
2 AM Wed 54 54 N 5 5915 5520 2870 Blue 8
3 AM Wed 54 54 N 3 5915 5520 2870 Blue 8
4 AM Wed 54 54 N 5 5915 5520 2870 Blue 8
5 AM Wed 53 53 N 5 5788 5157 2507 Blue 7
6 AM Wed 53 53 N 5 5788 5157 2507 Blue 7
7 AM Wed 54 54 NE 3 5915 5520 2870 Blue 8
8 AM Wed 56 56 NE 3 7358 5774 3124 Blue 10
9 AM Wed 59 60 NE 3 8149 7530 4880 Blue 14
10 AM Wed 63 64 E 3 9374 8244 5594 Blue 18
11 AM Wed 66 68 E 3 10507 9727 7077 Blue 22
12 Noon Wed 68 70 E 3 10790 10327 7677 Blue 24
1 PM Wed 69 71 S 6 10989 10468 7818 Blue 25
2 PM Wed 69 70 S 6 10790 10327 7677 Blue 24
3 PM Wed 68 69 S 6 10649 10175 7525 Blue 23
4 PM Wed 67 67 SW 8 10365 9265 6615 Blue 21
5 PM Wed 66 66 SW 8 10223 8792 6142 Blue 20
6 PM Wed 64 64 SW 8 9374 8244 5594 Blue 18
7 PM Wed 63 63 SW 7 8895 8126 5476 Blue 17
8 PM Wed 61 61 SW 7 8267 7736 5086 Blue 15
9 PM Wed 59 59 SW 7 7979 7324 4674 Blue 13
10 PM Wed 58 58 S 6 7772 6505 3855 Blue 12
11 PM Wed 57 57 S 6 7565 5901 3251 Blue 11
12 Midnight Thu 56 56 S 6 7358 5774 3124 Blue 10
1 AM Thu 55 55 SW 7 6669 5647 2997 Blue 9
2 AM Thu 54 54 SW 7 5915 5520 2870 Blue 8
3 AM Thu 53 53 SW 7 5788 5157 2507 Blue 7
4 AM Thu 52 52 W 9 5660 4430 1780 Blue 6
5 AM Thu 50 50 W 9 5181 3717 1067 Blue 4
6 AM Thu 50 50 W 9 5181 3717 1067 Blue 4
7 AM Thu 49 49 W 13 4554 2705 55 Blue 3
8 AM Thu 49 49 W 13 4554 2705 55 Blue 3
9 AM Thu 49 49 W 13 4554 2705 55 Blue 3
10 AM Thu 49 50 W 15 5181 3717 1067 Blue 4
11 AM Thu 48 49 W 15 4554 2705 55 Blue 3
12 Noon Thu 48 49 W 15 4554 2705 55 Blue 3
1 PM Thu 48 49 W 15 4554 2705 55 Blue 3
2 PM Thu 50 51 W 15 5532 4026 1376 Blue 5
3 PM Thu 54 54 W 15 5915 5520 2870 Blue 8
4 PM Thu 56 56 NW 14 7358 5774 3124 Blue 10
5 PM Thu 55 55 NW 14 6669 5647 2997 Blue 9
6 PM Thu 53 53 NW 14 5788 5157 2507 Blue 7
7 PM Thu 51 51 NW 15 5532 4026 1376 Blue 5
8 PM Thu 50 50 NW 15 5181 3717 1067 Blue 4
9 PM Thu 50 50 NW 15 5181 3717 1067 Blue 4
10 PM Thu 50 50 W 14 5181 3717 1067 Blue 4
11 PM Thu 49 49 W 14 4554 2705 55 Blue 3
12 Midnight Fri 48 48 W 14 4041 2650 0 Blue 2
1 AM Fri 47 47 NW 10 3729 2650 0 Blue 1
2 AM Fri 46 46 NW 10 2725 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 45 45 NW 10 2375 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 45 45 NW 7 2375 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 44 44 NW 7 2375 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 44 44 NW 7 2375 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 44 44 SW 7 2375 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 46 46 SW 7 2725 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 48 49 SW 7 4554 2705 55 Blue 3
10 AM Fri 51 52 SE 8 5660 4430 1780 Blue 6
11 AM Fri 54 56 SE 8 7358 5774 3124 Blue 10
12 Noon Fri 56 58 SE 8 7772 6505 3855 Blue 12
1 PM Fri 58 60 NE 9 8149 7530 4880 Blue 14
2 PM Fri 59 60 NE 9 8149 7530 4880 Blue 14
3 PM Fri 60 61 NE 9 8267 7736 5086 Blue 15
4 PM Fri 60 60 NW 9 8149 7530 4880 Blue 14
5 PM Fri 59 59 NW 9 7979 7324 4674 Blue 13
6 PM Fri 57 57 NW 9 7565 5901 3251 Blue 11
7 PM Fri 56 56 NW 9 7358 5774 3124 Blue 10
8 PM Fri 54 54 NW 9 5915 5520 2870 Blue 8
9 PM Fri 54 54 NW 9 5915 5520 2870 Blue 8
10 PM Fri 53 53 NW 9 5788 5157 2507 Blue 7
11 PM Fri 52 52 NW 9 5660 4430 1780 Blue 6
12 Midnight Sat 51 51 NW 9 5532 4026 1376 Blue 5
1 AM Sat 50 50 N 10 5181 3717 1067 Blue 4
2 AM Sat 50 50 N 10 5181 3717 1067 Blue 4
3 AM Sat 50 50 N 10 5181 3717 1067 Blue 4

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst