Detailed Predictions for: Lake Elsinore
Launch Altitude (f): 2650
LZ Altitude (f): 1350
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

18 MAY 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 47 47 W 3 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 47 47 W 3 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 47 47 W 2 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 49 50 NW 1 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 53 56 N 2 3830 2793 143 Blue 2
10 AM Sat 59 64 N 2 5220 4612 1962 Blue 10
11 AM Sat 64 69 W 5 6606 5457 2807 Blue 15
12 Noon Sat 66 71 W 7 7032 6119 3469 Blue 17
1 PM Sat 67 72 W 9 7134 6549 3899 Blue 18
2 PM Sat 66 71 SW 13 7032 6119 3469 Blue 17
3 PM Sat 66 70 SW 15 6929 5680 3030 Blue 16
4 PM Sat 66 68 SW 16 6170 5321 2671 Blue 14
5 PM Sat 65 66 SW 18 5471 5101 2451 Blue 12
6 PM Sat 63 63 SW 18 5110 4230 1580 Blue 9
7 PM Sat 59 59 SW 17 4159 3813 1163 Blue 5
8 PM Sat 58 58 W 16 4110 3407 757 Blue 4
9 PM Sat 56 56 W 15 3830 2793 143 Blue 2
10 PM Sat 55 55 W 14 3419 2650 0 Blue 1
11 PM Sat 52 52 W 13 2582 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 51 51 W 13 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 50 50 W 13 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 50 50 W 12 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 49 49 W 10 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 48 48 SW 10 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 47 47 SW 8 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 47 47 SW 9 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 47 47 SW 9 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 48 48 S 10 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 50 51 SW 13 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 53 54 SW 14 3007 2650 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 55 58 SW 16 4110 3407 757 Blue 4
12 Noon Sun 56 60 SW 16 4252 4030 1380 Blue 6
1 PM Sun 57 61 SW 17 4638 4107 1457 Blue 7
2 PM Sun 56 60 SW 17 4252 4030 1380 Blue 6
3 PM Sun 56 59 SW 20 4159 3813 1163 Blue 5
4 PM Sun 56 58 W 21 4110 3407 757 Blue 4
5 PM Sun 56 57 W 23 4036 3003 353 Blue 3
6 PM Sun 55 55 W 24 3419 2650 0 Blue 1
7 PM Sun 53 53 W 24 2795 2650 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 52 52 W 24 2582 2650 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 51 51 W 23 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 50 50 W 21 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 49 49 W 18 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 48 48 W 18 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 48 48 W 18 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 48 48 W 18 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 47 47 W 18 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 47 47 W 18 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 46 46 W 17 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 46 46 W 16 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 46 46 W 15 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 48 49 W 14 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 50 52 W 14 2582 2650 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 54 57 W 14 4036 3003 353 Blue 3
11 AM Mon 58 64 W 14 5220 4612 1962 Blue 10
12 Noon Mon 59 66 W 15 5471 5101 2451 Blue 12
1 PM Mon 60 67 W 16 5726 5211 2561 Blue 13
2 PM Mon 59 65 W 17 5331 4963 2313 Blue 11
3 PM Mon 59 64 W 18 5220 4612 1962 Blue 10
4 PM Mon 59 62 SW 20 4987 4157 1507 Blue 8
5 PM Mon 59 61 SW 20 4638 4107 1457 Blue 7
6 PM Mon 57 57 W 21 4036 3003 353 Blue 3
7 PM Mon 55 55 W 21 3419 2650 0 Blue 1
8 PM Mon 54 54 W 20 3007 2650 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 53 53 W 18 2795 2650 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 52 52 W 16 2582 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 51 51 W 15 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 50 50 SW 14 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 49 49 SW 14 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 49 49 SW 14 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 48 48 SW 14 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 48 48 SW 15 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 47 47 SW 15 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 47 47 SW 15 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 47 47 SW 15 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 48 48 SW 17 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 50 51 SW 17 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 52 54 SW 17 3007 2650 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 55 57 W 21 4036 3003 353 Blue 3
12 Noon Tue 55 57 W 21 4036 3003 353 Blue 3
1 PM Tue 56 58 W 21 4110 3407 757 Blue 4
2 PM Tue 56 58 W 26 4110 3407 757 Blue 4
3 PM Tue 55 57 W 26 4036 3003 353 Blue 3
4 PM Tue 55 56 W 26 3830 2793 143 Blue 2
5 PM Tue 55 55 W 28 3419 2650 0 Blue 1
6 PM Tue 53 53 W 28 2795 2650 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 51 51 W 28 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 51 51 W 22 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 50 50 W 22 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 49 49 W 22 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 47 47 W 15 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 46 46 W 15 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 46 46 W 15 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 46 46 SE 3 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 45 45 SE 3 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 45 45 SE 3 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 44 44 S 9 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 44 44 S 9 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 44 44 S 9 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 46 46 S 9 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 49 50 S 9 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 54 56 S 9 3830 2793 143 Blue 2
11 AM Wed 58 62 SW 5 4987 4157 1507 Blue 8
12 Noon Wed 60 65 SW 5 5331 4963 2313 Blue 11
1 PM Wed 61 66 SW 5 5471 5101 2451 Blue 12
2 PM Wed 61 65 SW 13 5331 4963 2313 Blue 11
3 PM Wed 60 63 SW 13 5110 4230 1580 Blue 9
4 PM Wed 60 62 SW 13 4987 4157 1507 Blue 8
5 PM Wed 60 61 W 16 4638 4107 1457 Blue 7
6 PM Wed 58 58 W 16 4110 3407 757 Blue 4
7 PM Wed 56 56 W 16 3830 2793 143 Blue 2
8 PM Wed 55 55 W 8 3419 2650 0 Blue 1
9 PM Wed 54 54 W 8 3007 2650 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 52 52 W 8 2582 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 51 51 NE 5 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 50 50 NE 5 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 49 49 NE 5 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 49 49 NW 2 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 49 49 NW 2 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 48 48 NW 2 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 47 47 N 5 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 47 47 N 5 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 47 47 N 5 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 49 50 N 5 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 53 55 N 5 3419 2650 0 Blue 1
10 AM Thu 58 61 N 5 4638 4107 1457 Blue 7
11 AM Thu 63 67 N 6 5726 5211 2561 Blue 13
12 Noon Thu 65 70 N 6 6929 5680 3030 Blue 16
1 PM Thu 66 71 N 6 7032 6119 3469 Blue 17
2 PM Thu 66 71 W 13 7032 6119 3469 Blue 17
3 PM Thu 65 69 W 13 6606 5457 2807 Blue 15
4 PM Thu 65 67 W 13 5726 5211 2561 Blue 13
5 PM Thu 64 65 S 12 5331 4963 2313 Blue 11
6 PM Thu 62 62 S 12 4987 4157 1507 Blue 8
7 PM Thu 60 60 S 12 4252 4030 1380 Blue 6
8 PM Thu 58 58 NW 10 4110 3407 757 Blue 4
9 PM Thu 57 57 NW 10 4036 3003 353 Blue 3
10 PM Thu 56 56 NW 10 3830 2793 143 Blue 2
11 PM Thu 54 54 N 3 3007 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 52 52 N 3 2582 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 52 52 N 3 2582 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 51 51 N 3 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 51 51 N 3 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 50 50 N 3 2536 2650 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst