Detailed Predictions for: Lake Elsinore
Launch Altitude (f): 2650
LZ Altitude (f): 1350
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

25 MAR 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Mon 52 52 N 3 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 53 53 N 3 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 52 52 N 3 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 53 53 NE 2 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 56 57 E 2 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 60 63 E 1 3247 2862 212 Blue 4
11 AM Mon 64 69 SE 2 4667 3748 1098 Blue 10
12 Noon Mon 68 74 S 2 8026 6365 3715 Blue 15
1 PM Mon 69 75 SW 5 8319 7350 4700 Blue 16
2 PM Mon 69 74 SW 7 8026 6365 3715 Blue 15
3 PM Mon 70 74 W 9 8026 6365 3715 Blue 15
4 PM Mon 70 72 SW 10 7435 4653 2003 Blue 13
5 PM Mon 69 70 W 12 5347 4012 1362 Blue 11
6 PM Mon 64 64 SW 12 3392 3035 385 Blue 5
7 PM Mon 63 63 W 10 3247 2862 212 Blue 4
8 PM Mon 62 62 W 5 3142 2725 75 Blue 3
9 PM Mon 60 60 N 2 2864 2650 0 Blue 1
10 PM Mon 59 59 N 2 2726 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 56 56 NE 2 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 55 55 E 2 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 54 54 E 2 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 54 54 SE 2 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 54 54 S 1 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 53 53 NW 1 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 52 52 NW 2 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 53 53 NW 2 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 52 52 NW 2 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 53 53 NW 2 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 56 57 NW 2 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 59 61 NW 2 3037 2650 0 Blue 2
11 AM Tue 63 66 NW 2 3755 3245 595 Blue 7
12 Noon Tue 66 69 NW 5 4667 3748 1098 Blue 10
1 PM Tue 67 70 W 6 5347 4012 1362 Blue 11
2 PM Tue 67 70 W 8 5347 4012 1362 Blue 11
3 PM Tue 68 70 W 10 5347 4012 1362 Blue 11
4 PM Tue 68 69 W 13 4667 3748 1098 Blue 10
5 PM Tue 67 67 W 14 4037 3387 737 Blue 8
6 PM Tue 62 62 W 14 3142 2725 75 Blue 3
7 PM Tue 61 61 W 12 3037 2650 0 Blue 2
8 PM Tue 60 60 W 10 2864 2650 0 Blue 1
9 PM Tue 58 58 W 8 2555 2650 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 57 57 NW 6 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 54 54 NW 3 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 53 53 NW 3 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 52 52 NW 5 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 52 52 NW 5 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 52 52 NW 5 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 51 51 W 5 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 50 50 W 5 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 51 51 W 5 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 50 50 W 5 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 50 50 W 5 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 52 52 W 5 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 55 56 W 6 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 57 59 W 7 2726 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 59 62 W 9 3142 2725 75 Blue 3
1 PM Wed 60 63 W 13 3247 2862 212 Blue 4
2 PM Wed 59 62 W 15 3142 2725 75 Blue 3
3 PM Wed 60 62 W 15 3142 2725 75 Blue 3
4 PM Wed 60 61 W 15 3037 2650 0 Blue 2
5 PM Wed 59 60 W 15 2864 2650 0 Blue 1
6 PM Wed 56 56 W 15 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 55 55 W 15 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 55 55 W 15 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 53 53 W 14 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 52 52 W 13 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 50 50 W 12 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 50 50 W 10 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 49 49 NW 9 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 49 49 NW 9 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 49 49 NW 9 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 49 49 NW 8 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 48 48 NW 7 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 49 49 NW 7 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 48 48 NW 7 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 48 48 N 3 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 51 52 N 3 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 54 56 N 3 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 56 60 SW 3 2864 2650 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Thu 58 63 SW 3 3247 2862 212 Blue 4
1 PM Thu 60 65 SW 3 3574 3140 490 Blue 6
2 PM Thu 60 65 W 13 3574 3140 490 Blue 6
3 PM Thu 60 64 W 13 3392 3035 385 Blue 5
4 PM Thu 60 62 W 13 3142 2725 75 Blue 3
5 PM Thu 59 60 W 17 2864 2650 0 Blue 1
6 PM Thu 56 56 W 17 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 56 56 W 17 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 55 55 W 16 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 54 54 W 16 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 53 53 W 16 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 51 51 NW 8 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 51 51 NW 8 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 50 50 NW 8 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 50 50 W 8 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 50 50 W 8 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 50 50 W 8 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 49 49 W 5 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 50 50 W 5 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 49 49 W 5 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 50 50 NE 6 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 53 54 NE 6 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 56 59 NE 6 2726 2650 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 60 64 N 10 3392 3035 385 Blue 5
12 Noon Fri 63 68 N 10 4456 3568 918 Blue 9
1 PM Fri 64 69 N 10 4667 3748 1098 Blue 10
2 PM Fri 65 70 N 12 5347 4012 1362 Blue 11
3 PM Fri 65 69 N 12 4667 3748 1098 Blue 10
4 PM Fri 64 66 N 12 3755 3245 595 Blue 7
5 PM Fri 64 65 NW 14 3574 3140 490 Blue 6
6 PM Fri 59 59 NW 14 2726 2650 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 58 58 NW 14 2555 2650 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 57 57 NW 13 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 55 55 NW 13 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 54 54 NW 13 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 51 51 N 12 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 50 50 N 12 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 49 49 N 12 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 49 49 N 9 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 49 49 N 9 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 48 48 N 9 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 47 47 N 12 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 48 48 N 12 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 47 47 N 12 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 48 48 N 12 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 52 53 N 12 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 57 60 N 12 2864 2650 0 Blue 1
11 AM Sat 61 65 N 17 3574 3140 490 Blue 6
12 Noon Sat 65 70 N 17 5347 4012 1362 Blue 11
1 PM Sat 67 72 N 17 7435 4653 2003 Blue 13
2 PM Sat 68 73 NE 16 7732 5237 2587 Blue 14
3 PM Sat 68 72 NE 16 7435 4653 2003 Blue 13
4 PM Sat 68 70 NE 16 5347 4012 1362 Blue 11
5 PM Sat 66 67 NE 17 4037 3387 737 Blue 8
6 PM Sat 62 62 NE 17 3142 2725 75 Blue 3
7 PM Sat 60 60 NE 17 2864 2650 0 Blue 1
8 PM Sat 60 60 NE 13 2864 2650 0 Blue 1
9 PM Sat 58 58 NE 13 2555 2650 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 56 56 NE 13 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 53 53 NE 15 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 52 52 NE 15 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 51 51 NE 15 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 51 51 NE 13 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 51 51 NE 13 2536 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 50 50 NE 13 2536 2650 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst