Detailed Predictions for: Lake Elsinore
Launch Altitude (f): 2650
LZ Altitude (f): 1350
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

20 JUL 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Fri 68 68 W 1 2234 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 69 69 SW 1 2326 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 70 70 W 0 2418 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 73 74 E 1 2980 2650 0 Blue 2
9 AM Fri 76 78 E 1 3908 3160 510 Blue 6
10 AM Fri 80 84 E 1 5322 4530 1880 Blue 12
11 AM Fri 83 87 W 1 6155 5298 2648 Blue 15
12 Noon Fri 84 89 W 3 6686 5850 3200 Blue 17
1 PM Fri 84 90 W 6 6829 6124 3474 Blue 18
2 PM Fri 85 90 W 12 6829 6124 3474 Blue 18
3 PM Fri 84 88 SW 13 6430 5575 2925 Blue 16
4 PM Fri 83 86 W 12 5879 5019 2369 Blue 14
5 PM Fri 81 83 W 13 5041 4371 1721 Blue 11
6 PM Fri 80 80 W 12 4380 3612 962 Blue 8
7 PM Fri 79 79 W 9 4193 3341 691 Blue 7
8 PM Fri 77 77 N 1 3622 2978 328 Blue 5
9 PM Fri 74 74 N 2 2980 2650 0 Blue 2
10 PM Fri 71 71 NE 2 2510 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 69 69 NE 3 2326 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 67 67 NE 2 2208 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 66 66 NE 2 2208 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 66 66 N 1 2208 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 66 66 N 1 2208 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 65 65 N 1 2208 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 65 65 N 1 2208 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 65 65 N 1 2208 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 66 66 N 1 2208 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 69 70 NE 1 2418 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 73 75 NE 1 3163 2650 0 Blue 3
10 AM Sat 78 82 NE 2 4699 4178 1528 Blue 10
11 AM Sat 83 89 N 2 6686 5850 3200 Blue 17
12 Noon Sat 86 93 NW 2 8400 6810 4160 Blue 21
1 PM Sat 88 95 NW 3 9158 7641 4991 Blue 23
2 PM Sat 87 94 W 8 8821 6967 4317 Blue 22
3 PM Sat 87 92 W 9 7750 6667 4017 Blue 20
4 PM Sat 85 89 W 10 6686 5850 3200 Blue 17
5 PM Sat 83 85 W 12 5601 4688 2038 Blue 13
6 PM Sat 81 82 W 10 4699 4178 1528 Blue 10
7 PM Sat 79 79 W 9 4193 3341 691 Blue 7
8 PM Sat 77 77 NW 3 3622 2978 328 Blue 5
9 PM Sat 73 73 N 3 2798 2650 0 Blue 1
10 PM Sat 70 70 N 2 2418 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 67 67 NE 2 2208 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 66 66 N 2 2208 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 66 66 N 1 2208 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 66 66 N 1 2208 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 66 66 NW 2 2208 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 66 66 N 2 2208 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 66 66 NW 2 2208 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 67 67 NW 2 2208 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 69 69 NW 2 2326 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 71 72 N 2 2614 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 75 77 N 2 3622 2978 328 Blue 5
10 AM Sun 80 84 N 3 5322 4530 1880 Blue 12
11 AM Sun 85 91 N 5 7066 6397 3747 Blue 19
12 Noon Sun 89 96 N 5 9491 8284 5634 Blue 24
1 PM Sun 92 100 NW 5 10855 9745 7095 Blue 28
2 PM Sun 92 99 NW 7 10507 9418 6768 Blue 27
3 PM Sun 93 99 W 7 10507 9418 6768 Blue 27
4 PM Sun 92 96 W 8 9491 8284 5634 Blue 24
5 PM Sun 90 92 W 10 7750 6667 4017 Blue 20
6 PM Sun 89 90 W 9 6829 6124 3474 Blue 18
7 PM Sun 88 88 NW 7 6430 5575 2925 Blue 16
8 PM Sun 86 86 N 5 5879 5019 2369 Blue 14
9 PM Sun 82 82 N 3 4699 4178 1528 Blue 10
10 PM Sun 78 78 N 2 3908 3160 510 Blue 6
11 PM Sun 75 75 N 1 3163 2650 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Mon 74 74 N 1 2980 2650 0 Blue 2
1 AM Mon 75 75 N 1 3163 2650 0 Blue 3
2 AM Mon 75 75 N 1 3163 2650 0 Blue 3
3 AM Mon 74 74 N 1 2980 2650 0 Blue 2
4 AM Mon 73 73 N 2 2798 2650 0 Blue 1
5 AM Mon 73 73 N 2 2798 2650 0 Blue 1
6 AM Mon 75 75 N 2 3163 2650 0 Blue 3
7 AM Mon 79 79 N 2 4193 3341 691 Blue 7
8 AM Mon 83 84 N 6 5322 4530 1880 Blue 12
9 AM Mon 88 90 N 6 6829 6124 3474 Blue 18
10 AM Mon 93 97 N 6 9821 8754 6104 Blue 25
11 AM Mon 96 102 N 6 11996 10419 7769 White 30
12 Noon Mon 98 105 N 6 12615 12053 9403 White 33
1 PM Mon 99 107 N 6 13024 13024 10374 White 35
2 PM Mon 99 106 W 10 12819 12819 10169 White 34
3 PM Mon 98 104 W 10 12410 11105 8455 White 32
4 PM Mon 97 101 W 10 11200 10082 7432 Blue 29
5 PM Mon 97 99 W 15 10507 9418 6768 Blue 27
6 PM Mon 96 97 W 15 9821 8754 6104 Blue 25
7 PM Mon 96 96 W 15 9491 8284 5634 Blue 24
8 PM Mon 94 94 W 8 8821 6967 4317 Blue 22
9 PM Mon 90 90 W 8 6829 6124 3474 Blue 18
10 PM Mon 86 86 W 8 5879 5019 2369 Blue 14
11 PM Mon 83 83 N 2 5041 4371 1721 Blue 11
12 Midnight Tue 81 81 N 2 4540 3896 1246 Blue 9
1 AM Tue 80 80 N 2 4380 3612 962 Blue 8
2 AM Tue 80 80 N 1 4380 3612 962 Blue 8
3 AM Tue 80 80 N 1 4380 3612 962 Blue 8
4 AM Tue 80 80 N 1 4380 3612 962 Blue 8
5 AM Tue 81 81 N 2 4540 3896 1246 Blue 9
6 AM Tue 82 82 N 2 4699 4178 1528 Blue 10
7 AM Tue 83 83 N 2 5041 4371 1721 Blue 11
8 AM Tue 86 87 N 6 6155 5298 2648 Blue 15
9 AM Tue 91 93 N 6 8400 6810 4160 Blue 21
10 AM Tue 96 100 N 6 10855 9745 7095 Blue 28
11 AM Tue 99 105 N 5 12615 12053 9403 White 33
12 Noon Tue 101 108 N 5 13227 13227 10577 White 36
1 PM Tue 101 109 N 5 13431 13431 10781 White 37
2 PM Tue 100 107 W 13 13024 13024 10374 White 35
3 PM Tue 99 105 W 13 12615 12053 9403 White 33
4 PM Tue 98 102 W 13 11996 10419 7769 White 30
5 PM Tue 98 100 W 16 10855 9745 7095 Blue 28
6 PM Tue 98 99 W 16 10507 9418 6768 Blue 27
7 PM Tue 98 98 W 16 10165 9088 6438 Blue 26
8 PM Tue 96 96 W 9 9491 8284 5634 Blue 24
9 PM Tue 93 93 W 9 8400 6810 4160 Blue 21
10 PM Tue 90 90 W 9 6829 6124 3474 Blue 18
11 PM Tue 87 87 N 2 6155 5298 2648 Blue 15
12 Midnight Wed 85 85 N 2 5601 4688 2038 Blue 13
1 AM Wed 84 84 N 2 5322 4530 1880 Blue 12
2 AM Wed 84 84 NE 1 5322 4530 1880 Blue 12
3 AM Wed 83 83 NE 1 5041 4371 1721 Blue 11
4 AM Wed 82 82 NE 1 4699 4178 1528 Blue 10
5 AM Wed 82 82 N 2 4699 4178 1528 Blue 10
6 AM Wed 83 83 N 2 5041 4371 1721 Blue 11
7 AM Wed 85 85 N 2 5601 4688 2038 Blue 13
8 AM Wed 88 89 NW 1 6686 5850 3200 Blue 17
9 AM Wed 92 94 NW 1 8821 6967 4317 Blue 22
10 AM Wed 97 101 NW 1 11200 10082 7432 Blue 29
11 AM Wed 101 107 NW 3 13024 13024 10374 White 35
12 Noon Wed 102 110 NW 3 13635 13635 10985 White 38
1 PM Wed 102 110 NW 3 13635 13635 10985 White 38
2 PM Wed 101 109 W 14 13431 13431 10781 White 37
3 PM Wed 99 105 W 14 12615 12053 9403 White 33
4 PM Wed 98 102 W 14 11996 10419 7769 White 30
5 PM Wed 98 100 W 15 10855 9745 7095 Blue 28
6 PM Wed 97 98 W 15 10165 9088 6438 Blue 26
7 PM Wed 97 97 W 15 9821 8754 6104 Blue 25
8 PM Wed 95 95 NW 8 9158 7641 4991 Blue 23
9 PM Wed 91 91 NW 8 7066 6397 3747 Blue 19
10 PM Wed 86 86 NW 8 5879 5019 2369 Blue 14
11 PM Wed 82 82 NE 2 4699 4178 1528 Blue 10
12 Midnight Thu 80 80 NE 2 4380 3612 962 Blue 8
1 AM Thu 79 79 NE 2 4193 3341 691 Blue 7
2 AM Thu 79 79 SE 1 4193 3341 691 Blue 7
3 AM Thu 79 79 SE 1 4193 3341 691 Blue 7
4 AM Thu 79 79 SE 1 4193 3341 691 Blue 7

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst