Detailed Predictions for: Lake Elsinore
Launch Altitude (f): 2650
LZ Altitude (f): 1350
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

26 OCT 2020

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Mon 45 45 NW 24 2523 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 43 43 NW 25 2523 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 42 42 NW 25 2523 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 42 42 NW 24 2523 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 44 45 NW 24 2523 2650 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 46 48 NW 25 2523 2650 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 50 53 N 29 3542 2650 0 White 0
12 Noon Mon 54 58 N 31 4651 4651 2001 White 0
1 PM Mon 58 62 N 29 5522 5522 2872 White 7
2 PM Mon 60 63 N 28 5738 5738 3088 White 8
3 PM Mon 60 62 N 29 5522 5522 2872 White 7
4 PM Mon 60 61 N 28 5306 5126 2476 White 6
5 PM Mon 58 58 N 26 4651 4651 2001 White 0
6 PM Mon 55 55 N 25 3985 2650 0 White 0
7 PM Mon 52 52 N 24 3318 2650 0 White 0
8 PM Mon 49 49 N 22 2523 2650 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 48 48 N 22 2523 2650 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 47 47 N 23 2523 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 46 46 N 24 2523 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 44 44 N 21 2523 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 42 42 N 22 2523 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 40 40 N 24 2523 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 39 39 N 24 2523 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 38 38 N 23 2523 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 38 38 N 21 2523 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 37 37 N 20 2523 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 37 37 N 18 2523 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 39 39 N 18 2523 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 43 44 N 18 2523 2650 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 49 51 N 20 3095 2650 0 White 0
11 AM Tue 54 57 N 20 4430 4430 1780 White 0
12 Noon Tue 60 64 N 18 5954 5954 3304 White 9
1 PM Tue 64 68 N 16 6808 6808 4158 White 13
2 PM Tue 67 70 N 14 7232 7232 4582 White 15
3 PM Tue 69 71 N 14 7444 7444 4794 White 16
4 PM Tue 68 69 N 14 7020 7020 4370 White 14
5 PM Tue 67 67 N 13 6596 6596 3946 White 12
6 PM Tue 64 64 N 12 5954 5954 3304 White 9
7 PM Tue 60 60 NW 9 5089 5054 2404 White 5
8 PM Tue 56 56 NW 7 4208 3331 681 White 0
9 PM Tue 54 54 N 6 3763 2650 0 White 0
10 PM Tue 53 53 E 3 3542 2650 0 White 0
11 PM Tue 52 52 E 2 3318 2650 0 White 0
12 Midnight Wed 49 49 E 1 2523 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 46 46 SE 2 2523 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 44 44 SE 2 2523 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 41 41 SE 2 2523 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 40 40 E 1 2523 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 40 40 NE 1 2523 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 42 42 NE 1 2523 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 46 46 NE 2 2523 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 51 51 NE 2 3095 2650 0 White 0
9 AM Wed 55 56 NE 2 4208 3331 681 White 0
10 AM Wed 60 62 N 2 5522 5522 2872 White 7
11 AM Wed 65 68 N 2 6808 6808 4158 White 13
12 Noon Wed 69 73 N 2 7866 7866 5216 White 18
1 PM Wed 72 76 NW 2 8495 8495 5845 White 21
2 PM Wed 74 77 NW 3 8705 8705 6055 White 22
3 PM Wed 73 75 W 7 8286 8286 5636 White 20
4 PM Wed 72 73 W 9 7866 7866 5216 White 18
5 PM Wed 70 70 W 10 7232 7232 4582 White 15
6 PM Wed 66 66 W 9 6382 6382 3732 White 11
7 PM Wed 61 61 W 7 5306 5126 2476 White 6
8 PM Wed 56 56 W 5 4208 3331 681 White 0
9 PM Wed 51 51 NW 3 3095 2650 0 White 0
10 PM Wed 46 46 NE 3 2523 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 45 45 NE 3 2523 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 47 47 NE 3 2523 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 50 50 NE 5 2523 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 53 53 NE 6 3542 2650 0 White 0
3 AM Thu 54 54 NE 6 3763 2650 0 White 0
4 AM Thu 53 53 N 6 3542 2650 0 White 0
5 AM Thu 53 53 N 6 3542 2650 0 White 0
6 AM Thu 53 53 N 6 3542 2650 0 White 0
7 AM Thu 54 54 N 6 3763 2650 0 White 0
8 AM Thu 57 57 N 5 4430 4430 1780 White 0
9 AM Thu 61 62 N 5 5522 5522 2872 White 7
10 AM Thu 66 68 N 5 6808 6808 4158 White 13
11 AM Thu 71 74 S 3 8076 8076 5426 White 19
12 Noon Thu 75 78 S 3 8913 8913 6263 White 23
1 PM Thu 78 82 S 3 9765 9765 7115 White 27
2 PM Thu 78 81 SW 3 9551 9551 6901 White 26
3 PM Thu 77 79 SW 3 9122 9122 6472 White 24
4 PM Thu 74 75 SW 3 8286 8286 5636 White 20
5 PM Thu 70 70 W 9 7232 7232 4582 White 15
6 PM Thu 69 69 W 9 7020 7020 4370 White 14
7 PM Thu 68 68 W 9 6808 6808 4158 White 13
8 PM Thu 66 66 SW 3 6382 6382 3732 White 11
9 PM Thu 62 62 SW 3 5522 5522 2872 White 7
10 PM Thu 58 58 SW 3 4651 4651 2001 White 0
11 PM Thu 55 55 NE 3 3985 2650 0 White 0
12 Midnight Fri 54 54 NE 3 3763 2650 0 White 0
1 AM Fri 54 54 NE 3 3763 2650 0 White 0
2 AM Fri 53 53 NE 3 3542 2650 0 White 0
3 AM Fri 52 52 NE 3 3318 2650 0 White 0
4 AM Fri 50 50 NE 3 2523 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 49 49 N 6 2523 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 49 49 N 6 2523 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 52 52 N 6 3318 2650 0 White 0
8 AM Fri 56 56 NE 5 4208 3331 681 White 0
9 AM Fri 62 62 NE 5 5522 5522 2872 White 7
10 AM Fri 69 71 NE 5 7444 7444 4794 White 16
11 AM Fri 74 76 SE 3 8495 8495 5845 White 21
12 Noon Fri 78 81 SE 3 9551 9551 6901 White 26
1 PM Fri 78 81 SE 3 9551 9551 6901 White 26
2 PM Fri 78 81 SW 7 9551 9551 6901 White 26
3 PM Fri 76 78 SW 7 8913 8913 6263 White 23
4 PM Fri 74 75 SW 7 8286 8286 5636 White 20
5 PM Fri 71 71 SW 10 7444 7444 4794 White 16
6 PM Fri 68 68 SW 10 6808 6808 4158 White 13
7 PM Fri 65 65 SW 10 6168 6168 3518 White 10
8 PM Fri 63 63 SW 6 5738 5738 3088 White 8
9 PM Fri 62 62 SW 6 5522 5522 2872 White 7
10 PM Fri 61 61 SW 6 5306 5126 2476 White 6
11 PM Fri 60 60 S 3 5089 5054 2404 White 5
12 Midnight Sat 58 58 S 3 4651 4651 2001 White 0
1 AM Sat 57 57 S 3 4430 4430 1780 White 0
2 AM Sat 55 55 W 3 3985 2650 0 White 0
3 AM Sat 54 54 W 3 3763 2650 0 White 0
4 AM Sat 52 52 W 3 3318 2650 0 White 0
5 AM Sat 52 52 NW 5 3318 2650 0 White 0
6 AM Sat 51 51 NW 5 3095 2650 0 White 0
7 AM Sat 51 51 NW 5 3095 2650 0 White 0
8 AM Sat 53 53 W 5 3542 2650 0 White 0
9 AM Sat 57 57 W 5 4430 4430 1780 White 0
10 AM Sat 62 63 W 5 5738 5738 3088 White 8
11 AM Sat 68 70 NE 2 7232 7232 4582 White 15
12 Noon Sat 73 76 NE 2 8495 8495 5845 White 21
1 PM Sat 78 81 NE 2 9551 9551 6901 White 26
2 PM Sat 78 81 W 5 9551 9551 6901 White 26
3 PM Sat 77 79 W 5 9122 9122 6472 White 24
4 PM Sat 73 74 W 5 8076 8076 5426 White 19
5 PM Sat 69 69 W 8 7020 7020 4370 White 14
6 PM Sat 68 68 W 8 6808 6808 4158 White 13
7 PM Sat 67 67 W 8 6596 6596 3946 White 12
8 PM Sat 66 66 N 5 6382 6382 3732 White 11
9 PM Sat 61 61 N 5 5306 5126 2476 White 6
10 PM Sat 56 56 N 5 4208 3331 681 White 0
11 PM Sat 52 52 N 3 3318 2650 0 White 0
12 Midnight Sun 52 52 N 3 3318 2650 0 White 0
1 AM Sun 53 53 N 3 3542 2650 0 White 0
2 AM Sun 54 54 N 5 3763 2650 0 White 0
3 AM Sun 54 54 N 5 3763 2650 0 White 0
4 AM Sun 54 54 N 5 3763 2650 0 White 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst