Detailed Predictions for: Lake Elsinore
Launch Altitude (f): 2650
LZ Altitude (f): 1350
Sounding

Station:

 KNKX

Date/Time:

 20 MAR 2010

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
5 AM Sat 55 55 W 1 1890 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 55 55 W 1 1890 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 55 55 W 1 1890 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 57 57 S 0 1890 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 62 63 S 0 2588 2650 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 65 68 S 0 3608 2957 307 Blue 4
11 AM Sat 66 71 E 9 5830 3601 951 Blue 7
12 Noon Sat 67 73 E 9 6832 4546 1896 Blue 9
1 PM Sat 69 75 E 9 7383 6518 3868 Blue 11
2 PM Sat 70 75 NE 7 7383 6518 3868 Blue 11
3 PM Sat 70 74 NE 7 7108 5700 3050 Blue 10
4 PM Sat 71 73 NE 7 6832 4546 1896 Blue 9
5 PM Sat 70 71 S 3 5830 3601 951 Blue 7
6 PM Sat 69 69 S 3 3823 3172 522 Blue 5
7 PM Sat 65 65 S 3 2960 2650 0 Blue 1
8 PM Sat 62 62 E 2 2465 2650 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 61 61 E 2 2342 2650 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 60 60 E 2 2220 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 60 60 E 5 2220 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 60 60 E 5 2220 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 60 60 E 5 2220 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 58 58 E 5 1974 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 56 56 E 5 1890 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 55 55 E 5 1890 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 55 55 E 5 1890 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 55 55 E 5 1890 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 55 55 E 5 1890 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 58 58 E 4 1974 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 65 66 E 4 3176 2650 0 Blue 2
10 AM Sun 68 71 E 4 5830 3601 951 Blue 7
11 AM Sun 70 74 E 4 7108 5700 3050 Blue 10
12 Noon Sun 71 76 E 4 7657 6794 4144 Blue 12
1 PM Sun 73 78 E 4 8454 7341 4691 Blue 14
2 PM Sun 75 80 S 3 9902 7881 5231 Blue 16
3 PM Sun 75 79 S 3 9201 7612 4962 Blue 15
4 PM Sun 76 78 S 3 8454 7341 4691 Blue 14
5 PM Sun 75 76 W 7 7657 6794 4144 Blue 12
6 PM Sun 73 73 W 7 6832 4546 1896 Blue 9
7 PM Sun 66 66 W 7 3176 2650 0 Blue 2
8 PM Sun 61 61 NW 5 2342 2650 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 59 59 NW 5 2097 2650 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 59 59 NW 5 2097 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 58 58 NE 2 1974 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 58 58 NE 2 1974 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 58 58 NE 2 1974 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 55 55 N 2 1890 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 52 52 N 2 1890 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 50 50 N 2 1890 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 50 50 W 2 1890 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 50 50 W 2 1890 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 50 50 W 2 1890 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 53 53 W 2 1890 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 59 60 W 2 2220 2650 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 62 64 W 2 2742 2650 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 64 67 SW 4 3393 2741 91 Blue 3
12 Noon Mon 65 69 SW 4 3823 3172 522 Blue 5
1 PM Mon 67 71 SW 4 5830 3601 951 Blue 7
2 PM Mon 69 72 SW 4 6554 3815 1165 Blue 8
3 PM Mon 69 71 SW 4 5830 3601 951 Blue 7
4 PM Mon 70 71 SW 4 5830 3601 951 Blue 7
5 PM Mon 69 69 SW 8 3823 3172 522 Blue 5
6 PM Mon 68 68 SW 8 3608 2957 307 Blue 4
7 PM Mon 62 62 SW 8 2465 2650 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 58 58 SW 8 1974 2650 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 56 56 SW 8 1890 2650 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 55 55 SW 8 1890 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 55 55 S 3 1890 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 55 55 S 3 1890 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 55 55 S 3 1890 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 52 52 S 3 1890 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 49 49 S 3 1890 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 48 48 S 3 1890 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 48 48 S 3 1890 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 48 48 S 3 1890 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 48 48 S 3 1890 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 50 50 S 3 1890 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 56 57 S 3 1890 2650 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 58 60 S 3 2220 2650 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 60 63 W 6 2588 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 61 65 W 6 2960 2650 0 Blue 1
1 PM Tue 63 67 W 6 3393 2741 91 Blue 3
2 PM Tue 64 67 W 6 3393 2741 91 Blue 3
3 PM Tue 64 66 W 6 3176 2650 0 Blue 2
4 PM Tue 65 66 W 6 3176 2650 0 Blue 2
5 PM Tue 64 64 SW 11 2742 2650 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 63 63 SW 11 2588 2650 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 57 57 SW 11 1890 2650 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 53 53 SW 11 1890 2650 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 51 51 SW 11 1890 2650 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 50 50 SW 11 1890 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 50 50 NE 2 1890 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 50 50 NE 2 1890 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 50 50 NE 2 1890 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 47 47 NE 2 1890 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 44 44 NE 2 1890 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 43 43 NE 2 1890 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 43 43 NE 4 1890 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 43 43 NE 4 1890 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 43 43 NE 4 1890 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 47 47 NE 4 1890 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 55 56 NE 4 1890 2650 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 59 61 NE 4 2342 2650 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 61 65 W 6 2960 2650 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Wed 62 67 W 6 3393 2741 91 Blue 3
1 PM Wed 65 70 W 6 4613 3387 737 Blue 6
2 PM Wed 67 72 W 6 6554 3815 1165 Blue 8
3 PM Wed 68 72 W 6 6554 3815 1165 Blue 8
4 PM Wed 69 71 W 6 5830 3601 951 Blue 7
5 PM Wed 68 69 W 6 3823 3172 522 Blue 5
6 PM Wed 67 67 W 6 3393 2741 91 Blue 3
7 PM Wed 61 61 W 6 2342 2650 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 57 57 W 6 1890 2650 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 56 56 W 6 1890 2650 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 55 55 W 6 1890 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 55 55 N 3 1890 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 55 55 N 3 1890 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 55 55 N 3 1890 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 52 52 N 3 1890 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 49 49 N 3 1890 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 48 48 N 3 1890 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 48 48 NE 3 1890 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 48 48 NE 3 1890 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 48 48 NE 3 1890 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 51 51 NE 3 1890 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 57 58 NE 3 1974 2650 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 60 63 NE 3 2588 2650 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 61 65 SW 5 2960 2650 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Thu 62 67 SW 5 3393 2741 91 Blue 3
1 PM Thu 64 69 SW 5 3823 3172 522 Blue 5
2 PM Thu 66 71 SW 5 5830 3601 951 Blue 7
3 PM Thu 66 70 SW 5 4613 3387 737 Blue 6
4 PM Thu 67 69 SW 5 3823 3172 522 Blue 5
5 PM Thu 66 67 W 10 3393 2741 91 Blue 3
6 PM Thu 65 65 W 10 2960 2650 0 Blue 1
7 PM Thu 60 60 W 10 2220 2650 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 56 56 W 10 1890 2650 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 55 55 W 10 1890 2650 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 54 54 W 10 1890 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 54 54 S 1 1890 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 54 54 S 1 1890 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 54 54 S 1 1890 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 51 51 S 1 1890 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 49 49 S 1 1890 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 48 48 S 1 1890 2650 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst