Detailed Predictions for: Lake Elsinore
Launch Altitude (f): 2650
LZ Altitude (f): 1350
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

18 SEP 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Wed 59 59 S 2 2343 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 59 59 S 2 2343 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 60 60 SW 2 2343 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 62 62 S 2 2343 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 66 67 E 3 3008 2650 0 Blue 3
10 AM Wed 70 73 E 3 3950 3356 706 Blue 9
11 AM Wed 74 79 SE 5 5194 4711 2061 Blue 15
12 Noon Wed 77 83 S 6 5902 5290 2640 Blue 19
1 PM Wed 79 85 SW 6 6881 5540 2890 Blue 21
2 PM Wed 78 83 W 9 5902 5290 2640 Blue 19
3 PM Wed 78 82 SW 10 5572 5185 2535 Blue 18
4 PM Wed 76 79 SW 14 5194 4711 2061 Blue 15
5 PM Wed 74 75 SW 14 4471 3678 1028 Blue 11
6 PM Wed 73 73 SW 13 3950 3356 706 Blue 9
7 PM Wed 71 71 W 10 3501 3093 443 Blue 7
8 PM Wed 70 70 W 6 3359 3007 357 Blue 6
9 PM Wed 67 67 NW 5 3008 2650 0 Blue 3
10 PM Wed 65 65 NW 3 2871 2650 0 Blue 1
11 PM Wed 63 63 W 3 2343 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 61 61 SW 3 2343 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 60 60 S 3 2343 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 60 60 S 5 2343 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 58 58 S 5 2343 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 57 57 SW 5 2343 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 56 56 SW 5 2343 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 56 56 SW 5 2343 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 57 57 SW 5 2343 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 58 58 SW 6 2343 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 62 63 SW 6 2343 2650 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 66 69 SW 7 3218 2938 288 Blue 5
11 AM Thu 69 74 SW 8 4211 3496 846 Blue 10
12 Noon Thu 72 78 SW 9 5090 4455 1805 Blue 14
1 PM Thu 74 80 SW 10 5299 4951 2301 Blue 16
2 PM Thu 73 79 SW 12 5194 4711 2061 Blue 15
3 PM Thu 73 77 SW 14 4965 4197 1547 Blue 13
4 PM Thu 71 74 SW 15 4211 3496 846 Blue 10
5 PM Thu 69 70 SW 15 3359 3007 357 Blue 6
6 PM Thu 67 67 W 14 3008 2650 0 Blue 3
7 PM Thu 66 66 W 10 2939 2650 0 Blue 2
8 PM Thu 64 64 W 7 2490 2650 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 63 63 W 6 2343 2650 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 61 61 NW 5 2343 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 59 59 NW 3 2343 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 58 58 NW 3 2343 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 57 57 W 3 2343 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 56 56 W 3 2343 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 56 56 W 3 2343 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 55 55 W 3 2343 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 54 54 NW 5 2343 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 54 54 NW 3 2343 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 55 55 N 3 2343 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 56 56 N 3 2343 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 59 60 N 5 2343 2650 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 63 66 N 5 2939 2650 0 Blue 2
11 AM Fri 67 72 N 6 3687 3215 565 Blue 8
12 Noon Fri 73 79 N 7 5194 4711 2061 Blue 15
1 PM Fri 77 83 N 8 5902 5290 2640 Blue 19
2 PM Fri 81 87 N 9 7904 6282 3632 Blue 23
3 PM Fri 81 85 NW 10 6881 5540 2890 Blue 21
4 PM Fri 81 84 NW 13 6347 5394 2744 Blue 20
5 PM Fri 79 80 W 13 5299 4951 2301 Blue 16
6 PM Fri 76 76 NW 12 4729 3938 1288 Blue 12
7 PM Fri 73 73 N 8 3950 3356 706 Blue 9
8 PM Fri 70 70 N 6 3359 3007 357 Blue 6
9 PM Fri 68 68 N 5 3095 2871 221 Blue 4
10 PM Fri 66 66 N 3 2939 2650 0 Blue 2
11 PM Fri 64 64 NW 3 2490 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 63 63 N 3 2343 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 62 62 N 3 2343 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 62 62 N 3 2343 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 61 61 N 3 2343 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 61 61 N 3 2343 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 61 61 N 3 2343 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 62 62 N 3 2343 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 64 64 N 3 2490 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 66 66 N 3 2939 2650 0 Blue 2
9 AM Sat 71 72 N 3 3687 3215 565 Blue 8
10 AM Sat 76 79 N 3 5194 4711 2061 Blue 15
11 AM Sat 81 86 NE 5 7400 5867 3217 Blue 22
12 Noon Sat 84 90 NE 5 9042 7819 5169 Blue 26
1 PM Sat 86 92 NE 5 9467 8780 6130 Blue 28
2 PM Sat 85 91 W 8 9255 8305 5655 Blue 27
3 PM Sat 86 90 W 8 9042 7819 5169 Blue 26
4 PM Sat 85 88 W 8 8396 6809 4159 Blue 24
5 PM Sat 84 85 W 13 6881 5540 2890 Blue 21
6 PM Sat 82 82 W 13 5572 5185 2535 Blue 18
7 PM Sat 81 81 W 13 5404 5081 2431 Blue 17
8 PM Sat 78 78 N 5 5090 4455 1805 Blue 14
9 PM Sat 74 74 N 5 4211 3496 846 Blue 10
10 PM Sat 70 70 N 5 3359 3007 357 Blue 6
11 PM Sat 67 67 N 3 3008 2650 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Sun 65 65 N 3 2871 2650 0 Blue 1
1 AM Sun 65 65 N 3 2871 2650 0 Blue 1
2 AM Sun 64 64 N 3 2490 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 64 64 N 3 2490 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 64 64 N 3 2490 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 64 64 NE 5 2490 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 64 64 NE 5 2490 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 66 66 NE 5 2939 2650 0 Blue 2
8 AM Sun 69 69 E 3 3218 2938 288 Blue 5
9 AM Sun 74 75 E 3 4471 3678 1028 Blue 11
10 AM Sun 79 82 E 3 5572 5185 2535 Blue 18
11 AM Sun 84 88 S 7 8396 6809 4159 Blue 24
12 Noon Sun 85 91 S 7 9255 8305 5655 Blue 27
1 PM Sun 86 92 S 7 9467 8780 6130 Blue 28
2 PM Sun 85 90 SW 12 9042 7819 5169 Blue 26
3 PM Sun 83 87 SW 12 7904 6282 3632 Blue 23
4 PM Sun 81 83 SW 12 5902 5290 2640 Blue 19
5 PM Sun 79 80 SW 15 5299 4951 2301 Blue 16
6 PM Sun 78 78 SW 15 5090 4455 1805 Blue 14
7 PM Sun 77 77 SW 15 4965 4197 1547 Blue 13
8 PM Sun 76 76 SW 7 4729 3938 1288 Blue 12
9 PM Sun 74 74 SW 7 4211 3496 846 Blue 10
10 PM Sun 73 73 SW 7 3950 3356 706 Blue 9
11 PM Sun 72 72 SW 6 3687 3215 565 Blue 8
12 Midnight Mon 70 70 SW 6 3359 3007 357 Blue 6
1 AM Mon 68 68 SW 6 3095 2871 221 Blue 4
2 AM Mon 66 66 S 8 2939 2650 0 Blue 2
3 AM Mon 64 64 S 8 2490 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 62 62 S 8 2343 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 62 62 S 7 2343 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 61 61 S 7 2343 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 61 61 S 7 2343 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 62 62 S 10 2343 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 64 65 S 10 2871 2650 0 Blue 1
10 AM Mon 66 69 S 10 3218 2938 288 Blue 5
11 AM Mon 70 74 S 9 4211 3496 846 Blue 10
12 Noon Mon 74 79 S 9 5194 4711 2061 Blue 15
1 PM Mon 78 83 S 9 5902 5290 2640 Blue 19
2 PM Mon 79 83 S 13 5902 5290 2640 Blue 19
3 PM Mon 79 82 S 13 5572 5185 2535 Blue 18
4 PM Mon 75 77 S 13 4965 4197 1547 Blue 13
5 PM Mon 71 72 SW 15 3687 3215 565 Blue 8
6 PM Mon 69 69 SW 15 3218 2938 288 Blue 5
7 PM Mon 68 68 SW 15 3095 2871 221 Blue 4
8 PM Mon 67 67 S 8 3008 2650 0 Blue 3
9 PM Mon 65 65 S 8 2871 2650 0 Blue 1
10 PM Mon 63 63 S 8 2343 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 62 62 S 7 2343 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 61 61 S 7 2343 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 62 62 S 7 2343 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 62 62 SW 6 2343 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 63 63 SW 6 2343 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 63 63 SW 6 2343 2650 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst