Detailed Predictions for: Lake Elsinore
Launch Altitude (f): 2650
LZ Altitude (f): 1350
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

21 SEP 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Fri 64 64 E 1 2448 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 63 63 E 1 2448 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 63 63 E 1 2448 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 68 68 SE 1 2448 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 73 74 E 1 2448 2650 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 78 81 E 1 3539 3147 497 Blue 7
11 AM Fri 81 85 E 3 4384 3743 1093 Blue 11
12 Noon Fri 85 91 SE 3 9303 5921 3271 Blue 17
1 PM Fri 87 93 S 3 10119 8798 6148 Blue 19
2 PM Fri 86 91 SW 7 9303 5921 3271 Blue 17
3 PM Fri 86 90 SW 8 8884 5464 2814 Blue 16
4 PM Fri 86 88 SW 8 6009 4372 1722 Blue 14
5 PM Fri 84 85 W 7 4384 3743 1093 Blue 11
6 PM Fri 81 81 NW 7 3539 3147 497 Blue 7
7 PM Fri 79 79 NW 5 3263 2981 331 Blue 5
8 PM Fri 78 78 N 5 3148 2805 155 Blue 4
9 PM Fri 75 75 NE 3 2807 2650 0 Blue 1
10 PM Fri 73 73 N 3 2448 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 72 72 N 3 2448 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 71 71 N 3 2448 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 72 72 N 3 2448 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 71 71 N 2 2448 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 71 71 N 2 2448 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 70 70 N 2 2448 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 70 70 N 2 2448 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 69 69 N 2 2448 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 69 69 N 3 2448 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 73 73 N 3 2448 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 77 78 N 5 3148 2805 155 Blue 4
10 AM Sat 82 85 N 5 4384 3743 1093 Blue 11
11 AM Sat 85 89 N 5 7434 4762 2112 Blue 15
12 Noon Sat 88 93 NE 3 10119 8798 6148 Blue 19
1 PM Sat 90 96 W 1 12017 10023 7373 Blue 22
2 PM Sat 89 94 W 9 10500 9214 6564 Blue 20
3 PM Sat 89 93 W 9 10119 8798 6148 Blue 19
4 PM Sat 88 90 W 10 8884 5464 2814 Blue 16
5 PM Sat 86 87 W 12 5480 4163 1513 Blue 13
6 PM Sat 82 82 W 9 3751 3260 610 Blue 8
7 PM Sat 80 80 W 8 3391 3064 414 Blue 6
8 PM Sat 78 78 NW 6 3148 2805 155 Blue 4
9 PM Sat 75 75 N 3 2807 2650 0 Blue 1
10 PM Sat 72 72 NW 2 2448 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 71 71 N 1 2448 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 70 70 N 2 2448 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 70 70 N 1 2448 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 70 70 NW 2 2448 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 69 69 NW 1 2448 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 69 69 W 1 2448 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 68 68 W 2 2448 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 67 67 W 2 2448 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 67 67 W 2 2448 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 71 71 NW 1 2448 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 75 76 E 1 2982 2650 0 Blue 2
10 AM Sun 78 81 E 2 3539 3147 497 Blue 7
11 AM Sun 82 87 SE 1 5480 4163 1513 Blue 13
12 Noon Sun 84 90 W 5 8884 5464 2814 Blue 16
1 PM Sun 86 92 SW 10 9715 6888 4238 Blue 18
2 PM Sun 85 91 SW 13 9303 5921 3271 Blue 17
3 PM Sun 85 89 SW 13 7434 4762 2112 Blue 15
4 PM Sun 84 87 SW 14 5480 4163 1513 Blue 13
5 PM Sun 82 83 SW 14 3963 3387 737 Blue 9
6 PM Sun 78 78 SW 14 3148 2805 155 Blue 4
7 PM Sun 76 76 SW 14 2982 2650 0 Blue 2
8 PM Sun 74 74 W 3 2448 2650 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 71 71 N 5 2448 2650 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 68 68 N 5 2448 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 67 67 N 3 2448 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 66 66 N 3 2448 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 66 66 N 1 2448 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 66 66 N 1 2448 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 65 65 NW 1 2448 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 65 65 N 1 2448 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 64 64 N 3 2448 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 63 63 N 3 2448 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 63 63 N 3 2448 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 67 67 NW 2 2448 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 72 73 NW 2 2448 2650 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 76 79 NW 2 3263 2981 331 Blue 5
11 AM Mon 80 85 NW 1 4384 3743 1093 Blue 11
12 Noon Mon 83 89 NW 1 7434 4762 2112 Blue 15
1 PM Mon 85 91 NW 1 9303 5921 3271 Blue 17
2 PM Mon 85 91 W 9 9303 5921 3271 Blue 17
3 PM Mon 84 88 W 9 6009 4372 1722 Blue 14
4 PM Mon 84 87 W 9 5480 4163 1513 Blue 13
5 PM Mon 81 82 W 12 3751 3260 610 Blue 8
6 PM Mon 77 77 W 12 3065 2650 0 Blue 3
7 PM Mon 75 75 W 12 2807 2650 0 Blue 1
8 PM Mon 73 73 N 3 2448 2650 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 71 71 N 3 2448 2650 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 68 68 N 3 2448 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 66 66 N 5 2448 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 66 66 N 5 2448 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 66 66 N 5 2448 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 66 66 NW 3 2448 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 65 65 NW 3 2448 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 65 65 NW 3 2448 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 64 64 N 6 2448 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 63 63 N 6 2448 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 63 63 N 6 2448 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 68 68 N 5 2448 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 72 73 N 5 2448 2650 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 77 80 N 5 3391 3064 414 Blue 6
11 AM Tue 80 85 E 3 4384 3743 1093 Blue 11
12 Noon Tue 84 90 E 3 8884 5464 2814 Blue 16
1 PM Tue 86 92 E 3 9715 6888 4238 Blue 18
2 PM Tue 86 91 SW 6 9303 5921 3271 Blue 17
3 PM Tue 85 89 SW 6 7434 4762 2112 Blue 15
4 PM Tue 85 87 SW 6 5480 4163 1513 Blue 13
5 PM Tue 82 83 W 14 3963 3387 737 Blue 9
6 PM Tue 79 79 W 14 3263 2981 331 Blue 5
7 PM Tue 76 76 W 14 2982 2650 0 Blue 2
8 PM Tue 75 75 N 5 2807 2650 0 Blue 1
9 PM Tue 72 72 N 5 2448 2650 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 70 70 N 5 2448 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 68 68 N 6 2448 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 68 68 N 6 2448 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 68 68 N 6 2448 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 67 67 N 7 2448 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 67 67 N 7 2448 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 67 67 N 7 2448 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 66 66 N 8 2448 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 65 65 N 8 2448 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 65 65 N 8 2448 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 69 69 N 6 2448 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 74 75 N 6 2807 2650 0 Blue 1
10 AM Wed 78 81 N 6 3539 3147 497 Blue 7
11 AM Wed 82 86 E 2 4790 3953 1303 Blue 12
12 Noon Wed 85 91 E 2 9303 5921 3271 Blue 17
1 PM Wed 87 93 E 2 10119 8798 6148 Blue 19
2 PM Wed 87 92 W 10 9715 6888 4238 Blue 18
3 PM Wed 86 90 W 10 8884 5464 2814 Blue 16
4 PM Wed 86 88 W 10 6009 4372 1722 Blue 14
5 PM Wed 84 85 W 15 4384 3743 1093 Blue 11
6 PM Wed 80 80 W 15 3391 3064 414 Blue 6
7 PM Wed 77 77 W 15 3065 2650 0 Blue 3
8 PM Wed 76 76 N 3 2982 2650 0 Blue 2
9 PM Wed 73 73 N 3 2448 2650 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 71 71 N 3 2448 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 69 69 N 6 2448 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 69 69 N 6 2448 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 69 69 N 6 2448 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 68 68 N 3 2448 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 68 68 N 3 2448 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 68 68 N 3 2448 2650 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst