Detailed Predictions for: Lake Elsinore
Launch Altitude (f): 2650
LZ Altitude (f): 1350
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

17 NOV 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Sat 56 56 W 2 2234 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 56 56 W 2 2234 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 55 55 W 2 2234 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 56 56 W 1 2234 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 58 58 SW 1 2234 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 61 62 S 1 3145 2650 0 Blue 3
10 AM Sat 63 65 SE 1 3998 3141 491 Blue 6
11 AM Sat 65 67 SW 1 4730 3709 1059 Blue 8
12 Noon Sat 66 68 W 2 5188 3985 1335 Blue 9
1 PM Sat 67 69 W 8 5651 4260 1610 Blue 10
2 PM Sat 66 67 W 9 4730 3709 1059 Blue 8
3 PM Sat 66 66 W 10 4278 3472 822 Blue 7
4 PM Sat 64 64 W 9 3719 2932 282 Blue 5
5 PM Sat 64 64 SW 7 3719 2932 282 Blue 5
6 PM Sat 62 62 W 3 3145 2650 0 Blue 3
7 PM Sat 61 61 NE 2 2935 2650 0 Blue 2
8 PM Sat 60 60 NE 1 2726 2650 0 Blue 1
9 PM Sat 59 59 NE 2 2493 2650 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 58 58 NE 2 2234 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 58 58 E 1 2234 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 57 57 E 1 2234 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 57 57 SE 1 2234 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 57 57 SE 1 2234 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 57 57 SE 1 2234 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 57 57 SE 1 2234 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 57 57 SE 1 2234 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 56 56 E 1 2234 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 57 57 E 1 2234 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 59 59 NE 1 2493 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 63 63 NE 2 3479 2725 75 Blue 4
10 AM Sun 65 66 N 3 4278 3472 822 Blue 7
11 AM Sun 68 70 N 2 6105 4699 2049 Blue 11
12 Noon Sun 69 71 NE 2 6549 5149 2499 Blue 12
1 PM Sun 70 72 E 2 6985 5606 2956 Blue 13
2 PM Sun 69 70 SE 0 6105 4699 2049 Blue 11
3 PM Sun 69 69 W 3 5651 4260 1610 Blue 10
4 PM Sun 67 67 W 5 4730 3709 1059 Blue 8
5 PM Sun 66 66 NW 7 4278 3472 822 Blue 7
6 PM Sun 65 65 NW 6 3998 3141 491 Blue 6
7 PM Sun 63 63 E 6 3479 2725 75 Blue 4
8 PM Sun 62 62 SE 7 3145 2650 0 Blue 3
9 PM Sun 60 60 E 8 2726 2650 0 Blue 1
10 PM Sun 59 59 E 9 2493 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 59 59 E 7 2493 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 58 58 E 7 2234 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 59 59 E 3 2493 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 59 59 NE 2 2493 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 58 58 NE 2 2234 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 58 58 N 5 2234 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 58 58 N 5 2234 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 57 57 N 5 2234 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 58 58 NE 5 2234 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 60 60 NE 5 2726 2650 0 Blue 1
9 AM Mon 63 64 NE 5 3719 2932 282 Blue 5
10 AM Mon 66 67 NE 3 4730 3709 1059 Blue 8
11 AM Mon 68 69 NE 3 5651 4260 1610 Blue 10
12 Noon Mon 69 70 NE 3 6105 4699 2049 Blue 11
1 PM Mon 70 71 E 3 6549 5149 2499 Blue 12
2 PM Mon 69 70 E 3 6105 4699 2049 Blue 11
3 PM Mon 69 69 E 3 5651 4260 1610 Blue 10
4 PM Mon 67 67 W 8 4730 3709 1059 Blue 8
5 PM Mon 66 66 W 8 4278 3472 822 Blue 7
6 PM Mon 64 64 W 8 3719 2932 282 Blue 5
7 PM Mon 62 62 SW 6 3145 2650 0 Blue 3
8 PM Mon 61 61 SW 6 2935 2650 0 Blue 2
9 PM Mon 60 60 SW 6 2726 2650 0 Blue 1
10 PM Mon 58 58 SE 7 2234 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 58 58 SE 7 2234 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 57 57 SE 7 2234 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 58 58 E 2 2234 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 58 58 E 2 2234 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 57 57 E 2 2234 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 57 57 E 2 2234 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 57 57 E 2 2234 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 56 56 E 2 2234 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 56 56 NE 2 2234 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 58 58 NE 2 2234 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 60 60 NE 2 2726 2650 0 Blue 1
10 AM Tue 61 63 S 2 3479 2725 75 Blue 4
11 AM Tue 63 65 S 2 3998 3141 491 Blue 6
12 Noon Tue 64 66 S 2 4278 3472 822 Blue 7
1 PM Tue 64 66 W 7 4278 3472 822 Blue 7
2 PM Tue 64 65 W 7 3998 3141 491 Blue 6
3 PM Tue 63 63 W 7 3479 2725 75 Blue 4
4 PM Tue 61 61 W 12 2935 2650 0 Blue 2
5 PM Tue 61 61 W 12 2935 2650 0 Blue 2
6 PM Tue 59 59 W 12 2493 2650 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 58 58 N 1 2234 2650 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 57 57 N 1 2234 2650 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 56 56 N 1 2234 2650 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 55 55 W 1 2234 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 54 54 W 1 2234 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 54 54 W 1 2234 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 54 54 N 2 2234 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 54 54 N 2 2234 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 54 54 N 2 2234 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 54 54 W 1 2234 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 54 54 W 1 2234 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 53 53 W 1 2234 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 53 53 N 1 2234 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 55 55 N 1 2234 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 57 58 N 1 2234 2650 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 58 59 E 2 2493 2650 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 60 61 E 2 2935 2650 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Wed 60 61 E 2 2935 2650 0 Blue 2
1 PM Wed 61 62 W 7 3145 2650 0 Blue 3
2 PM Wed 61 61 W 7 2935 2650 0 Blue 2
3 PM Wed 61 61 W 7 2935 2650 0 Blue 2
4 PM Wed 60 60 W 9 2726 2650 0 Blue 1
5 PM Wed 60 60 W 9 2726 2650 0 Blue 1
6 PM Wed 59 59 W 9 2493 2650 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 59 59 W 12 2493 2650 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 58 58 W 12 2234 2650 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 58 58 W 12 2234 2650 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 58 58 W 6 2234 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 58 58 W 6 2234 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 57 57 W 6 2234 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 58 58 NE 6 2234 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 58 58 NE 6 2234 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 57 57 NE 6 2234 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 57 57 N 3 2234 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 57 57 N 3 2234 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 57 57 N 3 2234 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 57 57 NW 5 2234 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 58 58 NW 5 2234 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 60 60 NW 5 2726 2650 0 Blue 1
10 AM Thu 61 61 NW 3 2935 2650 0 Blue 2
11 AM Thu 62 63 NW 3 3479 2725 75 Blue 4
12 Noon Thu 63 64 NW 3 3719 2932 282 Blue 5
1 PM Thu 63 64 NW 8 3719 2932 282 Blue 5
2 PM Thu 63 63 NW 8 3479 2725 75 Blue 4
3 PM Thu 62 62 NW 8 3145 2650 0 Blue 3
4 PM Thu 61 61 W 15 2935 2650 0 Blue 2
5 PM Thu 60 60 W 15 2726 2650 0 Blue 1
6 PM Thu 59 59 W 15 2493 2650 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 58 58 W 8 2234 2650 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 56 56 W 8 2234 2650 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 56 56 W 8 2234 2650 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 55 55 E 2 2234 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 54 54 E 2 2234 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 54 54 E 2 2234 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 54 54 S 2 2234 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 54 54 S 2 2234 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 54 54 S 2 2234 2650 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst