Detailed Predictions for: Lake Elsinore
Launch Altitude (f): 2650
LZ Altitude (f): 1350
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

10 NOV 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Sun 54 54 NW 3 2195 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 54 54 NW 2 2195 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 55 55 NW 2 2195 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 58 58 NW 2 2195 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 62 62 NW 2 2195 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 68 69 N 2 2195 2650 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 73 76 N 3 4554 2784 134 Blue 4
11 AM Sun 76 79 N 3 8734 4521 1871 Blue 7
12 Noon Sun 79 82 N 3 9970 8513 5863 Blue 10
1 PM Sun 79 82 W 3 9970 8513 5863 Blue 10
2 PM Sun 80 82 W 7 9970 8513 5863 Blue 10
3 PM Sun 78 79 W 8 8734 4521 1871 Blue 7
4 PM Sun 75 75 W 9 4020 2650 0 Blue 3
5 PM Sun 71 71 W 8 2359 2650 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 66 66 W 5 2195 2650 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 63 63 NE 2 2195 2650 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 60 60 NE 2 2195 2650 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 59 59 NE 1 2195 2650 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 59 59 E 0 2195 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 58 58 W 0 2195 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 58 58 SW 0 2195 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 58 58 W 1 2195 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 57 57 W 0 2195 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 57 57 W 1 2195 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 56 56 W 1 2195 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 56 56 NW 2 2195 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 56 56 NW 2 2195 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 58 58 NW 2 2195 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 62 62 N 2 2195 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 66 67 N 3 2195 2650 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 71 74 N 3 3425 2650 0 Blue 2
11 AM Mon 75 78 N 5 7505 3995 1345 Blue 6
12 Noon Mon 78 81 N 5 9798 7293 4643 Blue 9
1 PM Mon 79 82 N 5 9970 8513 5863 Blue 10
2 PM Mon 79 81 N 6 9798 7293 4643 Blue 9
3 PM Mon 79 80 N 6 9626 5977 3327 Blue 8
4 PM Mon 76 76 NW 7 4554 2784 134 Blue 4
5 PM Mon 72 72 NW 6 2547 2650 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 66 66 N 5 2195 2650 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 62 62 N 3 2195 2650 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 60 60 N 3 2195 2650 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 60 60 N 3 2195 2650 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 61 61 NW 3 2195 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 61 61 NW 3 2195 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 61 61 N 5 2195 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 61 61 N 5 2195 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 60 60 N 5 2195 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 60 60 N 5 2195 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 59 59 N 5 2195 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 58 58 N 5 2195 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 58 58 N 5 2195 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 60 60 NE 5 2195 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 64 64 NE 5 2195 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 70 71 NE 3 2359 2650 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 75 78 NE 3 7505 3995 1345 Blue 6
11 AM Tue 79 82 E 3 9970 8513 5863 Blue 10
12 Noon Tue 82 85 E 3 10599 9929 7279 Blue 13
1 PM Tue 83 86 SW 6 10899 10103 7453 Blue 14
2 PM Tue 82 84 W 8 10335 9758 7108 Blue 12
3 PM Tue 82 83 SW 10 10150 9586 6936 Blue 11
4 PM Tue 79 79 W 10 8734 4521 1871 Blue 7
5 PM Tue 75 75 W 12 4020 2650 0 Blue 3
6 PM Tue 71 71 W 12 2359 2650 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 66 66 NE 2 2195 2650 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 63 63 NE 2 2195 2650 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 61 61 NE 2 2195 2650 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 60 60 E 2 2195 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 60 60 E 2 2195 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 60 60 E 2 2195 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 61 61 N 3 2195 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 60 60 N 3 2195 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 60 60 N 3 2195 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 59 59 E 3 2195 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 59 59 E 3 2195 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 61 61 E 3 2195 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 63 63 NE 5 2195 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 67 67 NE 5 2195 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 71 71 NE 5 2359 2650 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 75 76 S 6 4554 2784 134 Blue 4
11 AM Wed 78 79 S 6 8734 4521 1871 Blue 7
12 Noon Wed 78 79 S 6 8734 4521 1871 Blue 7
1 PM Wed 79 80 SW 8 9626 5977 3327 Blue 8
2 PM Wed 78 79 SW 8 8734 4521 1871 Blue 7
3 PM Wed 77 77 SW 8 6097 3407 757 Blue 5
4 PM Wed 75 75 W 10 4020 2650 0 Blue 3
5 PM Wed 73 73 W 10 2787 2650 0 Blue 1
6 PM Wed 71 71 W 10 2359 2650 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 69 69 W 6 2195 2650 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 68 68 W 6 2195 2650 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 66 66 W 6 2195 2650 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 65 65 NE 5 2195 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 64 64 NE 5 2195 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 63 63 NE 5 2195 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 62 62 NE 5 2195 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 61 61 NE 5 2195 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 60 60 NE 5 2195 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 59 59 N 5 2195 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 58 58 N 5 2195 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 57 57 N 5 2195 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 58 58 E 3 2195 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 61 61 E 3 2195 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 65 65 E 3 2195 2650 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 69 70 SW 6 2195 2650 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 72 73 SW 6 2787 2650 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Thu 74 75 SW 6 4020 2650 0 Blue 3
1 PM Thu 73 74 SW 8 3425 2650 0 Blue 2
2 PM Thu 73 74 SW 8 3425 2650 0 Blue 2
3 PM Thu 72 72 SW 8 2547 2650 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 70 70 W 9 2195 2650 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 68 68 W 9 2195 2650 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 65 65 W 9 2195 2650 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 62 62 W 5 2195 2650 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 59 59 W 5 2195 2650 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 57 57 W 5 2195 2650 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 55 55 N 3 2195 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 54 54 N 3 2195 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 54 54 N 3 2195 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 55 55 NE 2 2195 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 55 55 NE 2 2195 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 54 54 NE 2 2195 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 54 54 N 5 2195 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 54 54 N 5 2195 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 54 54 N 5 2195 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 55 55 NE 3 2195 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 57 57 NE 3 2195 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 60 60 NE 3 2195 2650 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 63 65 W 2 2195 2650 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 67 69 W 2 2195 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 70 72 W 2 2547 2650 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 72 74 W 5 3425 2650 0 Blue 2
2 PM Fri 71 72 W 5 2547 2650 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 70 70 W 5 2195 2650 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 67 67 W 8 2195 2650 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 64 64 W 8 2195 2650 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 61 61 W 8 2195 2650 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 58 58 NW 2 2195 2650 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 56 56 NW 2 2195 2650 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 55 55 NW 2 2195 2650 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 55 55 N 5 2195 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 54 54 N 5 2195 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 54 54 N 5 2195 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 55 55 N 6 2195 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 56 56 N 6 2195 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 56 56 N 6 2195 2650 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst