Detailed Predictions for: Lake Elsinore
Launch Altitude (f): 2650
LZ Altitude (f): 1350
Sounding

Station:

 KNKX

Date/Time:

 3 SEP 2010

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
5 AM Fri 74 74 NW 5 2313 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 75 75 NW 5 2313 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 77 77 NW 5 2313 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 80 80 NW 3 2313 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 86 88 NW 3 3676 2771 121 Blue 4
10 AM Fri 93 97 NW 3 9157 5524 2874 Blue 13
11 AM Fri 99 105 N 3 14151 13662 11012 Blue 21
12 Noon Fri 102 109 N 3 14955 14275 11625 Blue 25
1 PM Fri 104 111 N 3 16159 14675 12025 White 27
2 PM Fri 104 111 NW 7 16159 14675 12025 White 27
3 PM Fri 103 108 NW 7 14755 14075 11425 Blue 24
4 PM Fri 101 104 NW 7 13949 13574 10924 Blue 20
5 PM Fri 98 100 W 12 13517 8508 5858 Blue 16
6 PM Fri 94 94 W 12 5563 4247 1597 Blue 10
7 PM Fri 89 89 W 12 3772 3087 437 Blue 5
8 PM Fri 85 85 NW 6 2773 2650 0 Blue 1
9 PM Fri 84 84 NW 6 2501 2650 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 83 83 NW 6 2313 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 82 82 NW 5 2313 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 81 81 NW 5 2313 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 81 81 NW 5 2313 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 80 80 NW 6 2313 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 78 78 NW 6 2313 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 77 77 NW 6 2313 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 77 77 NW 5 2313 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 77 77 NW 5 2313 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 79 79 NW 5 2313 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 82 82 NW 2 2313 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 88 90 NW 2 3869 3400 750 Blue 6
10 AM Sat 94 98 NW 2 13148 5934 3284 Blue 14
11 AM Sat 100 106 NW 5 14353 13751 11101 Blue 22
12 Noon Sat 103 110 NW 5 15963 14475 11825 White 26
1 PM Sat 103 110 NW 5 15963 14475 11825 White 26
2 PM Sat 103 110 W 13 15963 14475 11825 White 26
3 PM Sat 103 108 W 13 14755 14075 11425 Blue 24
4 PM Sat 101 104 W 13 13949 13574 10924 Blue 20
5 PM Sat 98 100 W 14 13517 8508 5858 Blue 16
6 PM Sat 93 93 W 14 5142 3865 1215 Blue 9
7 PM Sat 89 89 W 14 3772 3087 437 Blue 5
8 PM Sat 85 85 W 7 2773 2650 0 Blue 1
9 PM Sat 83 83 W 7 2313 2650 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 81 81 W 7 2313 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 80 80 W 5 2313 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 79 79 W 5 2313 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 77 77 W 5 2313 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 76 76 W 3 2313 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 74 74 W 3 2313 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 73 73 W 3 2313 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 72 72 SW 2 2313 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 73 73 SW 2 2313 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 74 74 SW 2 2313 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 76 76 SW 2 2313 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 81 83 SW 2 2313 2650 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 87 91 SW 2 4270 3672 1022 Blue 7
11 AM Sun 91 97 S 6 9157 5524 2874 Blue 13
12 Noon Sun 93 100 S 6 13517 8508 5858 Blue 16
1 PM Sun 94 101 S 6 13606 12591 9941 Blue 17
2 PM Sun 93 100 S 6 13517 8508 5858 Blue 16
3 PM Sun 92 97 S 6 9157 5524 2874 Blue 13
4 PM Sun 90 93 S 6 5142 3865 1215 Blue 9
5 PM Sun 87 89 W 9 3772 3087 437 Blue 5
6 PM Sun 89 89 W 9 3772 3087 437 Blue 5
7 PM Sun 83 83 W 9 2313 2650 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 76 76 W 9 2313 2650 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 72 72 W 9 2313 2650 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 70 70 W 9 2313 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 71 71 SE 2 2313 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 68 68 SE 2 2313 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 67 67 SE 2 2313 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 65 65 SE 2 2313 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 63 63 SE 2 2313 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 62 62 SE 2 2313 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 61 61 SE 2 2313 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 60 60 SE 2 2313 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 61 61 SE 2 2313 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 66 66 SE 2 2313 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 72 74 SE 2 2313 2650 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 77 81 SE 2 2313 2650 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 79 85 SW 8 2773 2650 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Mon 81 88 SW 8 3676 2771 121 Blue 4
1 PM Mon 83 90 SW 8 3869 3400 750 Blue 6
2 PM Mon 84 91 SW 8 4270 3672 1022 Blue 7
3 PM Mon 84 89 SW 8 3772 3087 437 Blue 5
4 PM Mon 84 87 SW 8 3409 2650 0 Blue 3
5 PM Mon 83 85 SW 12 2773 2650 0 Blue 1
6 PM Mon 80 80 SW 12 2313 2650 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 76 76 SW 12 2313 2650 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 69 69 SW 12 2313 2650 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 66 66 SW 12 2313 2650 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 64 64 SW 12 2313 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 65 65 SE 5 2313 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 63 63 SE 5 2313 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 62 62 SE 5 2313 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 60 60 SE 5 2313 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 59 59 SE 5 2313 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 58 58 SE 5 2313 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 57 57 SE 2 2313 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 56 56 SE 2 2313 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 57 57 SE 2 2313 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 62 62 SE 2 2313 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 68 69 SE 2 2313 2650 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 73 76 SE 2 2313 2650 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 75 81 SW 7 2313 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 77 84 SW 7 2501 2650 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 79 86 SW 7 3092 2650 0 Blue 2
2 PM Tue 80 87 SW 7 3409 2650 0 Blue 3
3 PM Tue 80 85 SW 7 2773 2650 0 Blue 1
4 PM Tue 80 83 SW 7 2313 2650 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 79 81 S 10 2313 2650 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 77 77 S 10 2313 2650 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 72 72 S 10 2313 2650 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 67 67 S 10 2313 2650 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 64 64 S 10 2313 2650 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 62 62 S 10 2313 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 63 63 SE 2 2313 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 61 61 SE 2 2313 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 60 60 SE 2 2313 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 58 58 SE 2 2313 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 57 57 SE 2 2313 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 56 56 SE 2 2313 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 55 55 SE 2 2313 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 54 54 SE 2 2313 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 55 55 SE 2 2313 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 60 60 SE 2 2313 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 66 67 SE 2 2313 2650 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 71 73 SE 2 2313 2650 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 72 78 SW 7 2313 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 74 81 SW 7 2313 2650 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 76 83 SW 7 2313 2650 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 77 84 SW 7 2501 2650 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 77 82 SW 7 2313 2650 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 77 80 SW 7 2313 2650 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 76 78 SW 12 2313 2650 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 74 74 SW 12 2313 2650 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 70 70 SW 12 2313 2650 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 65 65 SW 12 2313 2650 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 63 63 SW 12 2313 2650 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 61 61 SW 12 2313 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 62 62 SE 1 2313 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 60 60 SE 1 2313 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 59 59 SE 1 2313 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 57 57 SE 1 2313 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 56 56 SE 1 2313 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 56 56 SE 1 2313 2650 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst