Detailed Predictions for: Lake Elsinore
Launch Altitude (f): 2650
LZ Altitude (f): 1350
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

21 JUL 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 63 63 NW 2 2457 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 63 63 NW 2 2457 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 66 66 N 2 2457 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 73 74 N 2 2861 2650 0 Blue 3
9 AM Sun 78 81 NE 3 4153 3751 1101 Blue 10
10 AM Sun 81 86 NE 3 4813 4409 1759 Blue 15
11 AM Sun 85 91 NE 5 5470 5066 2416 Blue 20
12 Noon Sun 88 95 NE 5 6340 5588 2938 Blue 24
1 PM Sun 90 97 N 5 6871 6044 3394 Blue 26
2 PM Sun 92 99 W 7 8449 6573 3923 Blue 28
3 PM Sun 91 97 W 9 6871 6044 3394 Blue 26
4 PM Sun 90 94 W 10 6073 5458 2808 Blue 23
5 PM Sun 88 90 W 10 5339 4935 2285 Blue 19
6 PM Sun 84 85 W 10 4681 4278 1628 Blue 14
7 PM Sun 80 80 W 8 4021 3517 867 Blue 9
8 PM Sun 76 76 N 7 3261 2795 145 Blue 5
9 PM Sun 74 74 N 5 2861 2650 0 Blue 3
10 PM Sun 73 73 N 3 2796 2650 0 Blue 2
11 PM Sun 71 71 N 3 2566 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 71 71 N 2 2566 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 70 70 N 2 2499 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 68 68 N 2 2457 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 67 67 N 2 2457 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 67 67 NW 3 2457 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 66 66 W 2 2457 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 66 66 SW 2 2457 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 69 69 SE 2 2457 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 76 77 E 2 3525 2860 210 Blue 6
9 AM Mon 80 82 SE 3 4285 3883 1233 Blue 11
10 AM Mon 83 86 S 5 4813 4409 1759 Blue 15
11 AM Mon 87 92 S 6 5601 5197 2547 Blue 21
12 Noon Mon 89 95 S 6 6340 5588 2938 Blue 24
1 PM Mon 92 98 SW 7 7134 6309 3659 Blue 27
2 PM Mon 93 99 SW 8 8449 6573 3923 Blue 28
3 PM Mon 92 97 SW 9 6871 6044 3394 Blue 26
4 PM Mon 92 96 SW 10 6606 5777 3127 Blue 25
5 PM Mon 90 92 SW 12 5601 5197 2547 Blue 21
6 PM Mon 86 86 W 10 4813 4409 1759 Blue 15
7 PM Mon 83 83 W 8 4417 4014 1364 Blue 12
8 PM Mon 79 79 W 7 3888 3255 605 Blue 8
9 PM Mon 77 77 W 5 3525 2860 210 Blue 6
10 PM Mon 76 76 W 3 3261 2795 145 Blue 5
11 PM Mon 75 75 W 2 2989 2730 80 Blue 4
12 Midnight Tue 74 74 NW 2 2861 2650 0 Blue 3
1 AM Tue 73 73 NW 2 2796 2650 0 Blue 2
2 AM Tue 72 72 N 2 2730 2650 0 Blue 1
3 AM Tue 71 71 NW 3 2566 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 71 71 NW 3 2566 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 70 70 W 3 2499 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 70 70 NW 3 2499 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 72 72 NE 2 2730 2650 0 Blue 1
8 AM Tue 79 79 E 2 3888 3255 605 Blue 8
9 AM Tue 83 85 NE 2 4681 4278 1628 Blue 14
10 AM Tue 86 89 N 2 5207 4804 2154 Blue 18
11 AM Tue 89 92 NW 3 5601 5197 2547 Blue 21
12 Noon Tue 92 96 NW 6 6606 5777 3127 Blue 25
1 PM Tue 94 98 W 8 7134 6309 3659 Blue 27
2 PM Tue 95 99 W 9 8449 6573 3923 Blue 28
3 PM Tue 94 97 W 10 6871 6044 3394 Blue 26
4 PM Tue 94 96 W 10 6606 5777 3127 Blue 25
5 PM Tue 92 93 SW 10 5804 5327 2677 Blue 22
6 PM Tue 88 88 W 9 5076 4672 2022 Blue 17
7 PM Tue 85 85 NW 8 4681 4278 1628 Blue 14
8 PM Tue 81 81 NW 6 4153 3751 1101 Blue 10
9 PM Tue 79 79 NW 5 3888 3255 605 Blue 8
10 PM Tue 78 78 NW 3 3756 2985 335 Blue 7
11 PM Tue 77 77 NW 2 3525 2860 210 Blue 6
12 Midnight Wed 76 76 N 2 3261 2795 145 Blue 5
1 AM Wed 75 75 N 3 2989 2730 80 Blue 4
2 AM Wed 74 74 N 3 2861 2650 0 Blue 3
3 AM Wed 73 73 NE 3 2796 2650 0 Blue 2
4 AM Wed 73 73 NE 3 2796 2650 0 Blue 2
5 AM Wed 72 72 E 3 2730 2650 0 Blue 1
6 AM Wed 72 72 E 3 2730 2650 0 Blue 1
7 AM Wed 74 74 E 3 2861 2650 0 Blue 3
8 AM Wed 80 81 N 3 4153 3751 1101 Blue 10
9 AM Wed 84 86 N 3 4813 4409 1759 Blue 15
10 AM Wed 87 90 N 3 5339 4935 2285 Blue 19
11 AM Wed 90 94 SW 6 6073 5458 2808 Blue 23
12 Noon Wed 93 98 SW 6 7134 6309 3659 Blue 27
1 PM Wed 95 100 SW 6 8950 6835 4185 Blue 29
2 PM Wed 96 101 SW 8 10557 7096 4446 Blue 30
3 PM Wed 95 99 SW 8 8449 6573 3923 Blue 28
4 PM Wed 95 98 SW 8 7134 6309 3659 Blue 27
5 PM Wed 92 93 W 13 5804 5327 2677 Blue 22
6 PM Wed 89 89 W 13 5207 4804 2154 Blue 18
7 PM Wed 85 85 W 13 4681 4278 1628 Blue 14
8 PM Wed 81 81 W 10 4153 3751 1101 Blue 10
9 PM Wed 79 79 W 10 3888 3255 605 Blue 8
10 PM Wed 78 78 W 10 3756 2985 335 Blue 7
11 PM Wed 77 77 NE 2 3525 2860 210 Blue 6
12 Midnight Thu 76 76 NE 2 3261 2795 145 Blue 5
1 AM Thu 75 75 NE 2 2989 2730 80 Blue 4
2 AM Thu 74 74 N 2 2861 2650 0 Blue 3
3 AM Thu 73 73 N 2 2796 2650 0 Blue 2
4 AM Thu 73 73 N 2 2796 2650 0 Blue 2
5 AM Thu 72 72 S 2 2730 2650 0 Blue 1
6 AM Thu 72 72 S 2 2730 2650 0 Blue 1
7 AM Thu 74 74 S 2 2861 2650 0 Blue 3
8 AM Thu 80 81 S 2 4153 3751 1101 Blue 10
9 AM Thu 84 86 S 2 4813 4409 1759 Blue 15
10 AM Thu 87 90 S 2 5339 4935 2285 Blue 19
11 AM Thu 90 95 W 5 6340 5588 2938 Blue 24
12 Noon Thu 93 99 W 5 8449 6573 3923 Blue 28
1 PM Thu 95 102 W 5 10897 8399 5749 Blue 31
2 PM Thu 96 102 W 10 10897 8399 5749 Blue 31
3 PM Thu 95 100 W 10 8950 6835 4185 Blue 29
4 PM Thu 94 98 W 10 7134 6309 3659 Blue 27
5 PM Thu 92 94 W 14 6073 5458 2808 Blue 23
6 PM Thu 88 89 W 14 5207 4804 2154 Blue 18
7 PM Thu 84 84 W 14 4549 4146 1496 Blue 13
8 PM Thu 80 80 W 8 4021 3517 867 Blue 9
9 PM Thu 77 77 W 8 3525 2860 210 Blue 6
10 PM Thu 76 76 W 8 3261 2795 145 Blue 5
11 PM Thu 74 74 N 3 2861 2650 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Fri 74 74 N 3 2861 2650 0 Blue 3
1 AM Fri 73 73 N 3 2796 2650 0 Blue 2
2 AM Fri 71 71 E 3 2566 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 70 70 E 3 2499 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 70 70 E 3 2499 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 69 69 N 3 2457 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 69 69 N 3 2457 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 72 72 N 3 2730 2650 0 Blue 1
8 AM Fri 78 79 S 2 3888 3255 605 Blue 8
9 AM Fri 82 84 S 2 4549 4146 1496 Blue 13
10 AM Fri 85 89 S 2 5207 4804 2154 Blue 18
11 AM Fri 89 95 W 5 6340 5588 2938 Blue 24
12 Noon Fri 91 98 W 5 7134 6309 3659 Blue 27
1 PM Fri 94 102 W 5 10897 8399 5749 Blue 31
2 PM Fri 95 102 W 10 10897 8399 5749 Blue 31
3 PM Fri 94 100 W 10 8950 6835 4185 Blue 29
4 PM Fri 93 97 W 10 6871 6044 3394 Blue 26
5 PM Fri 91 93 W 14 5804 5327 2677 Blue 22
6 PM Fri 87 88 W 14 5076 4672 2022 Blue 17
7 PM Fri 83 83 W 14 4417 4014 1364 Blue 12
8 PM Fri 78 78 NW 8 3756 2985 335 Blue 7
9 PM Fri 76 76 NW 8 3261 2795 145 Blue 5
10 PM Fri 74 74 NW 8 2861 2650 0 Blue 3
11 PM Fri 72 72 N 3 2730 2650 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Sat 72 72 N 3 2730 2650 0 Blue 1
1 AM Sat 71 71 N 3 2566 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 69 69 N 3 2457 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 68 68 N 3 2457 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 68 68 N 3 2457 2650 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst