Detailed Predictions for: Lake Elsinore
Launch Altitude (f): 2650
LZ Altitude (f): 1350
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Wed 50 50 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Wed 50 50 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Wed 50 50 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Wed 50 50 S 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Wed 50 50 S 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Wed 52 52 S 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Wed 53 53 S 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Wed 54 54 S 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Wed 55 55 S 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Wed 55 55 S 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Wed 55 55 S 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Wed 56 56 S 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Wed 56 56 S 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Wed 55 55 S 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Wed 55 55 S 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Wed 54 54 S 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Wed 54 54 S 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Wed 54 54 S 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Wed 54 54 S 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Wed 54 54 S 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Thu 54 54 S 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Thu 53 53 S 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Thu 54 54 S 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Thu 53 53 S 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Thu 53 53 S 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Thu 53 53 S 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 53 53 SW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 53 53 S 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 53 53 S 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 54 54 S 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 55 55 S 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 56 56 S 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 57 57 S 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 56 56 S 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 56 56 SW 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 57 57 SW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 56 56 SW 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 54 54 SW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 53 53 SW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 52 52 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 52 52 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 51 51 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 50 50 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 50 50 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 50 50 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 49 49 W 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 49 49 W 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 49 49 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 48 48 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 49 49 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 48 48 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 49 49 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 49 49 S 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 51 51 SE 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 53 54 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 55 57 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 57 59 NW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 57 59 N 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 57 58 N 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 58 58 N 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 57 57 N 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 55 55 N 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 55 55 N 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 54 54 N 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 54 54 N 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 53 53 N 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 53 53 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 53 53 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 53 53 N 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 52 52 N 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 52 52 N 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 52 52 N 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 51 51 N 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 52 52 N 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 51 51 N 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 52 52 N 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 52 52 N 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 55 56 N 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 59 60 N 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 62 64 N 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 65 67 N 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 66 68 NE 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 66 67 NE 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 66 67 NE 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 64 64 NE 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 61 61 NE 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 60 60 NE 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 59 59 NE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 58 58 NE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 57 57 NE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 57 57 NE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 56 56 NE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 56 56 NE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 55 55 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 55 55 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 54 54 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 54 54 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 54 54 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 53 53 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 54 54 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 54 54 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 57 58 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 60 61 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 63 65 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 66 68 N 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 67 69 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 67 68 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 66 66 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 65 65 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 60 60 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 60 60 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 58 58 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 57 57 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 55 55 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 55 55 E 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 54 54 E 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 54 54 E 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 52 52 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 53 53 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 52 52 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 51 51 NE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 52 52 NE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 50 50 NE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 51 51 N 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 51 51 N 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 53 53 N 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 56 57 N 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 58 60 N 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 60 62 N 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 61 63 N 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 61 62 N 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 60 60 N 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 59 59 N 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 56 56 N 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 55 55 N 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 53 53 N 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 53 53 N 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 51 51 N 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 51 51 N 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 51 51 N 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 50 50 N 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 49 49 N 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 49 49 N 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 48 48 N 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst