Detailed Predictions for: Blossom Valley
Launch Altitude (f): 1500
LZ Altitude (f): 700
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

22 APR 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 58 58 NE 2 719 1500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 60 60 N 1 719 1500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 62 62 W 1 896 1500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 66 67 W 1 1189 1500 0 Blue 4
9 AM Sun 70 72 W 2 1432 1500 0 Blue 9
10 AM Sun 73 77 W 5 1887 1529 29 Blue 14
11 AM Sun 76 81 W 7 3418 2104 604 Blue 18
12 Noon Sun 78 84 W 9 5698 3345 1845 Blue 21
1 PM Sun 80 86 W 10 6520 5098 3598 Blue 23
2 PM Sun 79 85 W 12 6111 4252 2752 Blue 22
3 PM Sun 80 84 W 10 5698 3345 1845 Blue 21
4 PM Sun 79 82 W 10 4345 2327 827 Blue 19
5 PM Sun 76 77 W 9 1887 1529 29 Blue 14
6 PM Sun 73 73 W 8 1481 1500 0 Blue 10
7 PM Sun 69 69 W 7 1287 1500 0 Blue 6
8 PM Sun 65 65 W 3 1092 1500 0 Blue 2
9 PM Sun 63 63 W 2 991 1500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 61 61 W 1 802 1500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 60 60 E 0 719 1500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 60 60 E 0 719 1500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 59 59 NE 1 719 1500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 58 58 SW 1 719 1500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 57 57 NE 1 719 1500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 56 56 N 0 719 1500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 56 56 NE 1 719 1500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 58 58 NE 1 719 1500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 61 61 NE 1 802 1500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 65 66 W 1 1141 1500 0 Blue 3
9 AM Mon 69 72 W 2 1432 1500 0 Blue 9
10 AM Mon 73 78 W 3 2112 1617 117 Blue 15
11 AM Mon 76 82 W 7 4345 2327 827 Blue 19
12 Noon Mon 78 85 W 8 6111 4252 2752 Blue 22
1 PM Mon 80 87 W 8 7329 5632 4132 Blue 24
2 PM Mon 79 85 W 10 6111 4252 2752 Blue 22
3 PM Mon 80 85 W 10 6111 4252 2752 Blue 22
4 PM Mon 79 82 W 9 4345 2327 827 Blue 19
5 PM Mon 77 78 W 9 2112 1617 117 Blue 15
6 PM Mon 73 73 W 7 1481 1500 0 Blue 10
7 PM Mon 70 70 W 6 1335 1500 0 Blue 7
8 PM Mon 66 66 W 3 1141 1500 0 Blue 3
9 PM Mon 63 63 W 2 991 1500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 61 61 W 1 802 1500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 59 59 W 1 719 1500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 58 58 SW 2 719 1500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 57 57 SW 1 719 1500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 57 57 W 0 719 1500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 56 56 SW 1 719 1500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 56 56 SW 0 719 1500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 57 57 N 1 719 1500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 58 58 N 0 719 1500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 61 61 NE 0 802 1500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 64 65 W 2 1092 1500 0 Blue 2
9 AM Tue 67 69 W 3 1287 1500 0 Blue 6
10 AM Tue 71 75 W 6 1620 1500 0 Blue 12
11 AM Tue 74 79 W 8 2336 1741 241 Blue 16
12 Noon Tue 76 81 W 9 3418 2104 604 Blue 18
1 PM Tue 77 83 W 9 5216 2549 1049 Blue 20
2 PM Tue 77 82 W 10 4345 2327 827 Blue 19
3 PM Tue 77 81 W 10 3418 2104 604 Blue 18
4 PM Tue 77 79 W 9 2336 1741 241 Blue 16
5 PM Tue 75 76 W 8 1745 1500 0 Blue 13
6 PM Tue 73 73 W 7 1481 1500 0 Blue 10
7 PM Tue 69 69 W 6 1287 1500 0 Blue 6
8 PM Tue 66 66 W 5 1141 1500 0 Blue 3
9 PM Tue 63 63 W 5 991 1500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 61 61 W 5 802 1500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 60 60 W 1 719 1500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 58 58 W 1 719 1500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 57 57 W 1 719 1500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 56 56 NE 1 719 1500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 55 55 NE 1 719 1500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 55 55 NE 1 719 1500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 55 55 SW 1 719 1500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 55 55 SW 1 719 1500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 56 56 SW 1 719 1500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 57 57 W 6 719 1500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 61 62 W 6 896 1500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 65 67 W 6 1189 1500 0 Blue 4
11 AM Wed 70 75 W 8 1620 1500 0 Blue 12
12 Noon Wed 73 79 W 8 2336 1741 241 Blue 16
1 PM Wed 75 81 W 8 3418 2104 604 Blue 18
2 PM Wed 76 82 W 10 4345 2327 827 Blue 19
3 PM Wed 77 81 W 10 3418 2104 604 Blue 18
4 PM Wed 77 80 W 10 2560 1880 380 Blue 17
5 PM Wed 75 76 W 10 1745 1500 0 Blue 13
6 PM Wed 72 72 W 10 1432 1500 0 Blue 9
7 PM Wed 68 68 W 10 1238 1500 0 Blue 5
8 PM Wed 65 65 W 6 1092 1500 0 Blue 2
9 PM Wed 62 62 W 6 896 1500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 60 60 W 6 719 1500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 58 58 SW 2 719 1500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 57 57 SW 2 719 1500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 56 56 SW 2 719 1500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 54 54 SW 1 719 1500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 53 53 SW 1 719 1500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 52 52 SW 1 719 1500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 52 52 SW 2 719 1500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 52 52 SW 2 719 1500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 53 53 SW 2 719 1500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 56 56 SW 5 719 1500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 60 61 SW 5 802 1500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 64 66 SW 5 1141 1500 0 Blue 3
11 AM Thu 68 73 W 8 1481 1500 0 Blue 10
12 Noon Thu 71 77 W 8 1887 1529 29 Blue 14
1 PM Thu 72 79 W 8 2336 1741 241 Blue 16
2 PM Thu 73 79 W 10 2336 1741 241 Blue 16
3 PM Thu 73 77 W 10 1887 1529 29 Blue 14
4 PM Thu 73 76 W 10 1745 1500 0 Blue 13
5 PM Thu 72 73 W 10 1481 1500 0 Blue 10
6 PM Thu 69 69 W 10 1287 1500 0 Blue 6
7 PM Thu 66 66 W 10 1141 1500 0 Blue 3
8 PM Thu 64 64 W 7 1044 1500 0 Blue 1
9 PM Thu 61 61 W 7 802 1500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 59 59 W 7 719 1500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 58 58 W 1 719 1500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 57 57 W 1 719 1500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 56 56 W 1 719 1500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 55 55 SW 1 719 1500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 54 54 SW 1 719 1500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 53 53 SW 1 719 1500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 53 53 S 2 719 1500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 54 54 S 2 719 1500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 55 55 S 2 719 1500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 58 58 SW 5 719 1500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 62 63 SW 5 991 1500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 66 68 SW 5 1238 1500 0 Blue 5
11 AM Fri 69 75 W 7 1620 1500 0 Blue 12
12 Noon Fri 72 79 W 7 2336 1741 241 Blue 16
1 PM Fri 74 81 W 7 3418 2104 604 Blue 18
2 PM Fri 74 80 W 9 2560 1880 380 Blue 17
3 PM Fri 73 78 W 9 2112 1617 117 Blue 15
4 PM Fri 72 75 W 9 1620 1500 0 Blue 12
5 PM Fri 69 70 W 10 1335 1500 0 Blue 7
6 PM Fri 67 67 W 10 1189 1500 0 Blue 4
7 PM Fri 64 64 W 10 1044 1500 0 Blue 1
8 PM Fri 62 62 N 6 896 1500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 60 60 N 6 719 1500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 58 58 N 6 719 1500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 56 56 NE 1 719 1500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 55 55 NE 1 719 1500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 55 55 NE 1 719 1500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 54 54 NE 1 719 1500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 53 53 NE 1 719 1500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 52 52 NE 1 719 1500 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst