Detailed Predictions for: Blossom Valley
Launch Altitude (f): 1500
LZ Altitude (f): 700
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

20 JUL 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Fri 66 66 S 1 1366 1500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 66 66 S 1 1366 1500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 67 67 SW 1 1426 1500 0 Blue 1
8 AM Fri 69 70 W 3 1605 1500 0 Blue 4
9 AM Fri 72 74 W 3 1920 1663 163 Blue 8
10 AM Fri 75 79 W 5 2451 2165 665 Blue 13
11 AM Fri 78 83 W 8 3032 2537 1037 Blue 17
12 Noon Fri 80 86 W 9 3685 3021 1521 Blue 20
1 PM Fri 82 88 W 9 4242 3382 1882 Blue 22
2 PM Fri 83 88 W 10 4242 3382 1882 Blue 22
3 PM Fri 82 86 W 10 3685 3021 1521 Blue 20
4 PM Fri 82 85 W 10 3404 2843 1343 Blue 19
5 PM Fri 80 81 W 9 2674 2357 857 Blue 15
6 PM Fri 78 78 W 9 2361 2041 541 Blue 12
7 PM Fri 75 75 W 9 2045 1744 244 Blue 9
8 PM Fri 72 72 W 7 1746 1544 44 Blue 6
9 PM Fri 70 70 W 6 1605 1500 0 Blue 4
10 PM Fri 68 68 W 6 1485 1500 0 Blue 2
11 PM Fri 67 67 W 3 1426 1500 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Sat 66 66 W 3 1366 1500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 66 66 W 3 1366 1500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 66 66 W 3 1366 1500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 66 66 NW 2 1366 1500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 65 65 W 2 981 1500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 65 65 N 2 981 1500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 65 65 N 1 981 1500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 66 66 NW 1 1366 1500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 67 67 W 3 1426 1500 0 Blue 1
9 AM Sat 70 71 W 3 1664 1500 0 Blue 5
10 AM Sat 74 76 W 3 2170 1829 329 Blue 10
11 AM Sat 78 83 W 8 3032 2537 1037 Blue 17
12 Noon Sat 81 87 W 8 3965 3199 1699 Blue 21
1 PM Sat 83 90 W 8 4561 3938 2438 Blue 24
2 PM Sat 83 89 W 12 4405 3661 2161 Blue 23
3 PM Sat 84 89 W 12 4405 3661 2161 Blue 23
4 PM Sat 83 87 W 12 3965 3199 1699 Blue 21
5 PM Sat 81 83 W 10 3032 2537 1037 Blue 17
6 PM Sat 78 79 W 10 2451 2165 665 Blue 13
7 PM Sat 75 75 W 9 2045 1744 244 Blue 9
8 PM Sat 72 72 W 7 1746 1544 44 Blue 6
9 PM Sat 70 70 W 6 1605 1500 0 Blue 4
10 PM Sat 69 69 W 6 1545 1500 0 Blue 3
11 PM Sat 68 68 W 3 1485 1500 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Sun 67 67 NW 3 1426 1500 0 Blue 1
1 AM Sun 67 67 NW 3 1426 1500 0 Blue 1
2 AM Sun 66 66 N 1 1366 1500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 65 65 N 2 981 1500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 64 64 N 1 525 1500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 64 64 NW 2 525 1500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 64 64 N 1 525 1500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 65 65 NW 2 981 1500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 68 68 W 3 1485 1500 0 Blue 2
9 AM Sun 72 73 W 6 1831 1603 103 Blue 7
10 AM Sun 76 77 W 6 2271 1916 416 Blue 11
11 AM Sun 80 86 W 9 3685 3021 1521 Blue 20
12 Noon Sun 84 92 W 10 5066 4388 2888 Blue 26
1 PM Sun 86 94 W 9 5614 4699 3199 Blue 28
2 PM Sun 86 93 W 12 5341 4543 3043 Blue 27
3 PM Sun 87 93 W 10 5341 4543 3043 Blue 27
4 PM Sun 86 90 W 10 4561 3938 2438 Blue 24
5 PM Sun 84 86 W 9 3685 3021 1521 Blue 20
6 PM Sun 82 83 W 8 3032 2537 1037 Blue 17
7 PM Sun 80 80 W 8 2541 2267 767 Blue 14
8 PM Sun 78 78 NW 7 2361 2041 541 Blue 12
9 PM Sun 76 76 W 5 2170 1829 329 Blue 10
10 PM Sun 73 73 W 3 1831 1603 103 Blue 7
11 PM Sun 71 71 W 2 1664 1500 0 Blue 5
12 Midnight Mon 69 69 W 2 1545 1500 0 Blue 3
1 AM Mon 68 68 SW 2 1485 1500 0 Blue 2
2 AM Mon 67 67 SW 2 1426 1500 0 Blue 1
3 AM Mon 66 66 SW 2 1366 1500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 65 65 SW 2 981 1500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 65 65 SW 1 981 1500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 66 66 SW 1 1366 1500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 68 68 SW 1 1485 1500 0 Blue 2
8 AM Mon 72 73 SW 3 1831 1603 103 Blue 7
9 AM Mon 77 79 SW 3 2451 2165 665 Blue 13
10 AM Mon 82 86 SW 3 3685 3021 1521 Blue 20
11 AM Mon 88 94 W 7 5614 4699 3199 Blue 28
12 Noon Mon 91 99 W 7 6820 6111 4611 Blue 33
1 PM Mon 94 102 W 7 8304 6794 5294 Blue 36
2 PM Mon 96 104 W 10 9090 7532 6032 Blue 38
3 PM Mon 98 104 W 10 9090 7532 6032 Blue 38
4 PM Mon 99 103 W 10 8761 6933 5433 Blue 37
5 PM Mon 98 100 W 10 7004 6377 4877 Blue 34
6 PM Mon 96 97 W 10 6423 5574 4074 Blue 31
7 PM Mon 92 92 W 10 5066 4388 2888 Blue 26
8 PM Mon 87 87 W 6 3965 3199 1699 Blue 21
9 PM Mon 82 82 W 6 2853 2447 947 Blue 16
10 PM Mon 79 79 W 6 2451 2165 665 Blue 13
11 PM Mon 76 76 SW 2 2170 1829 329 Blue 10
12 Midnight Tue 74 74 SW 2 1920 1663 163 Blue 8
1 AM Tue 73 73 SW 2 1831 1603 103 Blue 7
2 AM Tue 72 72 SW 2 1746 1544 44 Blue 6
3 AM Tue 71 71 SW 2 1664 1500 0 Blue 5
4 AM Tue 70 70 SW 2 1605 1500 0 Blue 4
5 AM Tue 70 70 W 1 1605 1500 0 Blue 4
6 AM Tue 71 71 W 1 1664 1500 0 Blue 5
7 AM Tue 74 74 W 1 1920 1663 163 Blue 8
8 AM Tue 77 78 W 3 2361 2041 541 Blue 12
9 AM Tue 82 85 W 3 3404 2843 1343 Blue 19
10 AM Tue 88 92 W 3 5066 4388 2888 Blue 26
11 AM Tue 93 99 W 8 6820 6111 4611 Blue 33
12 Noon Tue 97 104 W 8 9090 7532 6032 Blue 38
1 PM Tue 100 108 W 8 10403 9327 7827 Blue 42
2 PM Tue 102 109 W 12 10742 9647 8147 Blue 43
3 PM Tue 103 109 W 12 10742 9647 8147 Blue 43
4 PM Tue 103 107 W 12 10070 9004 7504 Blue 41
5 PM Tue 101 103 W 10 8761 6933 5433 Blue 37
6 PM Tue 98 99 W 10 6820 6111 4611 Blue 33
7 PM Tue 93 93 W 10 5341 4543 3043 Blue 27
8 PM Tue 89 89 W 6 4405 3661 2161 Blue 23
9 PM Tue 85 85 W 6 3404 2843 1343 Blue 19
10 PM Tue 82 82 W 6 2853 2447 947 Blue 16
11 PM Tue 80 80 SW 2 2541 2267 767 Blue 14
12 Midnight Wed 78 78 SW 2 2361 2041 541 Blue 12
1 AM Wed 76 76 SW 2 2170 1829 329 Blue 10
2 AM Wed 75 75 W 1 2045 1744 244 Blue 9
3 AM Wed 75 75 W 1 2045 1744 244 Blue 9
4 AM Wed 76 76 W 1 2170 1829 329 Blue 10
5 AM Wed 76 76 NW 1 2170 1829 329 Blue 10
6 AM Wed 78 78 NW 1 2361 2041 541 Blue 12
7 AM Wed 80 80 NW 1 2541 2267 767 Blue 14
8 AM Wed 83 84 W 2 3211 2664 1164 Blue 18
9 AM Wed 88 90 W 2 4561 3938 2438 Blue 24
10 AM Wed 92 96 W 2 6155 5303 3803 Blue 30
11 AM Wed 97 103 W 8 8761 6933 5433 Blue 37
12 Noon Wed 100 108 W 8 10403 9327 7827 Blue 42
1 PM Wed 101 109 W 8 10742 9647 8147 Blue 43
2 PM Wed 102 110 W 13 11079 9972 8472 Blue 44
3 PM Wed 102 108 W 13 10403 9327 7827 Blue 42
4 PM Wed 100 104 W 13 9090 7532 6032 Blue 38
5 PM Wed 98 100 W 9 7004 6377 4877 Blue 34
6 PM Wed 96 97 W 9 6423 5574 4074 Blue 31
7 PM Wed 92 92 W 9 5066 4388 2888 Blue 26
8 PM Wed 88 88 W 5 4242 3382 1882 Blue 22
9 PM Wed 85 85 W 5 3404 2843 1343 Blue 19
10 PM Wed 81 81 W 5 2674 2357 857 Blue 15
11 PM Wed 79 79 SW 2 2451 2165 665 Blue 13
12 Midnight Thu 78 78 SW 2 2361 2041 541 Blue 12
1 AM Thu 78 78 SW 2 2361 2041 541 Blue 12
2 AM Thu 77 77 N 1 2271 1916 416 Blue 11
3 AM Thu 76 76 N 1 2170 1829 329 Blue 10
4 AM Thu 75 75 N 1 2045 1744 244 Blue 9

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst