Detailed Predictions for: Blossom Valley
Launch Altitude (f): 1500
LZ Altitude (f): 700
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

25 MAR 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Mon 50 50 N 1 600 1500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 50 50 N 1 600 1500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 50 50 N 1 600 1500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 53 53 NE 1 735 1500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 57 59 SW 1 1721 1500 0 Blue 4
10 AM Mon 61 64 W 2 2256 1938 438 Blue 9
11 AM Mon 64 69 W 5 2906 2479 979 Blue 14
12 Noon Mon 67 73 W 6 3420 3052 1552 Blue 18
1 PM Mon 70 76 W 7 4083 3406 1906 Blue 21
2 PM Mon 71 76 W 8 4083 3406 1906 Blue 21
3 PM Mon 72 76 W 9 4083 3406 1906 Blue 21
4 PM Mon 70 72 W 8 3265 2895 1395 Blue 17
5 PM Mon 68 69 W 8 2906 2479 979 Blue 14
6 PM Mon 66 66 W 8 2483 2146 646 Blue 11
7 PM Mon 62 62 W 7 2047 1718 218 Blue 7
8 PM Mon 59 59 W 2 1721 1500 0 Blue 4
9 PM Mon 58 58 NW 2 1611 1500 0 Blue 3
10 PM Mon 56 56 N 2 1344 1500 0 Blue 1
11 PM Mon 54 54 NE 1 916 1500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 54 54 E 1 916 1500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 53 53 E 1 735 1500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 52 52 NE 1 600 1500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 51 51 NE 1 600 1500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 51 51 NE 1 600 1500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 51 51 NE 1 600 1500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 52 52 NE 1 600 1500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 51 51 NE 1 600 1500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 54 54 N 1 916 1500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 58 59 N 2 1721 1500 0 Blue 4
10 AM Tue 61 63 NW 3 2150 1828 328 Blue 8
11 AM Tue 64 67 W 5 2609 2251 751 Blue 12
12 Noon Tue 66 69 W 7 2906 2479 979 Blue 14
1 PM Tue 69 72 W 9 3265 2895 1395 Blue 17
2 PM Tue 70 73 W 10 3420 3052 1552 Blue 18
3 PM Tue 70 72 W 10 3265 2895 1395 Blue 17
4 PM Tue 69 70 W 9 3059 2599 1099 Blue 15
5 PM Tue 68 68 W 9 2753 2382 882 Blue 13
6 PM Tue 65 65 W 7 2388 2043 543 Blue 10
7 PM Tue 62 62 NW 6 2047 1718 218 Blue 7
8 PM Tue 59 59 NW 5 1721 1500 0 Blue 4
9 PM Tue 57 57 NW 3 1501 1500 0 Blue 2
10 PM Tue 56 56 NW 2 1344 1500 0 Blue 1
11 PM Tue 54 54 N 2 916 1500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 53 53 NW 1 735 1500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 53 53 W 1 735 1500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 52 52 W 1 600 1500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 51 51 W 1 600 1500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 51 51 NW 1 600 1500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 51 51 N 1 600 1500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 52 52 NW 1 600 1500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 51 51 W 1 600 1500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 53 53 SW 1 735 1500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 56 56 SW 2 1344 1500 0 Blue 1
10 AM Wed 58 59 W 3 1721 1500 0 Blue 4
11 AM Wed 60 62 W 6 2047 1718 218 Blue 7
12 Noon Wed 62 65 W 8 2388 2043 543 Blue 10
1 PM Wed 64 67 W 9 2609 2251 751 Blue 12
2 PM Wed 64 67 W 10 2609 2251 751 Blue 12
3 PM Wed 65 67 W 13 2609 2251 751 Blue 12
4 PM Wed 64 65 W 14 2388 2043 543 Blue 10
5 PM Wed 62 62 W 14 2047 1718 218 Blue 7
6 PM Wed 61 61 W 12 1942 1609 109 Blue 6
7 PM Wed 58 58 W 8 1611 1500 0 Blue 3
8 PM Wed 56 56 W 5 1344 1500 0 Blue 1
9 PM Wed 55 55 W 3 1140 1500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 54 54 NW 3 916 1500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 52 52 NW 3 600 1500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 52 52 NW 5 600 1500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 51 51 N 5 600 1500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 50 50 N 6 600 1500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 50 50 N 5 600 1500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 50 50 NE 5 600 1500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 50 50 NE 3 600 1500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 50 50 NE 3 600 1500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 50 50 NE 3 600 1500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 52 52 NE 1 600 1500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 55 56 NE 1 1344 1500 0 Blue 1
10 AM Thu 57 59 NE 1 1721 1500 0 Blue 4
11 AM Thu 60 64 W 6 2256 1938 438 Blue 9
12 Noon Thu 61 66 W 6 2483 2146 646 Blue 11
1 PM Thu 64 69 W 6 2906 2479 979 Blue 14
2 PM Thu 65 70 W 10 3059 2599 1099 Blue 15
3 PM Thu 65 69 W 10 2906 2479 979 Blue 14
4 PM Thu 63 65 W 10 2388 2043 543 Blue 10
5 PM Thu 62 63 W 10 2150 1828 328 Blue 8
6 PM Thu 60 60 W 10 1831 1500 0 Blue 5
7 PM Thu 56 56 W 10 1344 1500 0 Blue 1
8 PM Thu 54 54 NW 5 916 1500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 53 53 NW 5 735 1500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 51 51 NW 5 600 1500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 50 50 E 5 600 1500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 49 49 E 5 600 1500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 48 48 E 5 600 1500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 48 48 E 3 600 1500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 47 47 E 3 600 1500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 47 47 E 3 600 1500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 47 47 E 5 600 1500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 47 47 E 5 600 1500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 47 47 E 5 600 1500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 50 50 NE 3 600 1500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 54 55 NE 3 1140 1500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 57 60 NE 3 1831 1500 0 Blue 5
11 AM Fri 60 64 NW 5 2256 1938 438 Blue 9
12 Noon Fri 63 68 NW 5 2753 2382 882 Blue 13
1 PM Fri 66 71 NW 5 3162 2747 1247 Blue 16
2 PM Fri 68 73 W 9 3420 3052 1552 Blue 18
3 PM Fri 68 72 W 9 3265 2895 1395 Blue 17
4 PM Fri 66 68 W 9 2753 2382 882 Blue 13
5 PM Fri 65 66 W 9 2483 2146 646 Blue 11
6 PM Fri 63 63 W 9 2150 1828 328 Blue 8
7 PM Fri 59 59 W 9 1721 1500 0 Blue 4
8 PM Fri 57 57 N 3 1501 1500 0 Blue 2
9 PM Fri 55 55 N 3 1140 1500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 54 54 N 3 916 1500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 52 52 NE 5 600 1500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 51 51 NE 5 600 1500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 51 51 NE 5 600 1500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 50 50 E 6 600 1500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 49 49 E 6 600 1500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 49 49 E 6 600 1500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 49 49 E 8 600 1500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 49 49 E 8 600 1500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 49 49 E 8 600 1500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 52 52 E 10 600 1500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 56 57 E 10 1501 1500 0 Blue 2
10 AM Sat 60 63 E 10 2150 1828 328 Blue 8
11 AM Sat 63 67 E 8 2609 2251 751 Blue 12
12 Noon Sat 66 71 E 8 3162 2747 1247 Blue 16
1 PM Sat 69 75 E 8 3776 3258 1758 Blue 20
2 PM Sat 71 76 NE 10 4083 3406 1906 Blue 21
3 PM Sat 70 74 NE 10 3598 3155 1655 Blue 19
4 PM Sat 69 71 NE 10 3162 2747 1247 Blue 16
5 PM Sat 67 68 NE 10 2753 2382 882 Blue 13
6 PM Sat 65 65 NE 10 2388 2043 543 Blue 10
7 PM Sat 60 60 NE 10 1831 1500 0 Blue 5
8 PM Sat 58 58 NW 3 1611 1500 0 Blue 3
9 PM Sat 56 56 NW 3 1344 1500 0 Blue 1
10 PM Sat 54 54 NW 3 916 1500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 53 53 NE 6 735 1500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 52 52 NE 6 600 1500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 51 51 NE 6 600 1500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 50 50 E 9 600 1500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 49 49 E 9 600 1500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 49 49 E 9 600 1500 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst