Detailed Predictions for: Blossom Valley
Launch Altitude (f): 1500
LZ Altitude (f): 700
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

17 NOV 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Sat 53 53 E 2 912 1500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 53 53 E 3 912 1500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 53 53 E 3 912 1500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 54 54 E 5 912 1500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 59 59 E 2 1013 1500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 62 63 S 0 1631 1500 0 Blue 3
10 AM Sat 64 66 W 5 2105 1628 128 Blue 6
11 AM Sat 67 69 W 6 2810 2098 598 Blue 9
12 Noon Sat 69 71 W 7 3225 2610 1110 Blue 11
1 PM Sat 70 72 W 9 3560 2798 1298 Blue 12
2 PM Sat 71 72 W 9 3560 2798 1298 Blue 12
3 PM Sat 70 70 W 9 3016 2308 808 Blue 10
4 PM Sat 68 68 W 8 2623 2007 507 Blue 8
5 PM Sat 63 63 W 7 1631 1500 0 Blue 3
6 PM Sat 60 60 NW 5 1089 1500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 58 58 E 3 942 1500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 57 57 E 2 912 1500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 56 56 E 2 912 1500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 55 55 E 3 912 1500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 54 54 E 2 912 1500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 54 54 E 1 912 1500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 54 54 NE 1 912 1500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 55 55 NE 1 912 1500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 55 55 NE 2 912 1500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 54 54 NE 2 912 1500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 54 54 N 1 912 1500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 54 54 NE 3 912 1500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 55 55 NE 3 912 1500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 61 61 N 1 1271 1500 0 Blue 1
9 AM Sun 64 65 W 2 2010 1500 0 Blue 5
10 AM Sun 67 69 W 5 2810 2098 598 Blue 9
11 AM Sun 70 72 W 6 3560 2798 1298 Blue 12
12 Noon Sun 72 74 W 7 4080 3207 1707 Blue 14
1 PM Sun 73 75 W 9 4400 3541 2041 Blue 15
2 PM Sun 74 75 W 10 4400 3541 2041 Blue 15
3 PM Sun 73 73 W 10 3808 3003 1503 Blue 13
4 PM Sun 70 70 W 8 3016 2308 808 Blue 10
5 PM Sun 65 65 W 6 2010 1500 0 Blue 5
6 PM Sun 62 62 W 5 1452 1500 0 Blue 2
7 PM Sun 60 60 NW 1 1089 1500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 58 58 NE 1 942 1500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 57 57 NW 1 912 1500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 56 56 SW 1 912 1500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 56 56 SW 1 912 1500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 55 55 S 1 912 1500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 55 55 E 3 912 1500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 56 56 E 7 912 1500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 56 56 E 9 912 1500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 55 55 E 9 912 1500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 55 55 E 9 912 1500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 55 55 E 9 912 1500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 56 56 E 8 912 1500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 62 62 E 8 1452 1500 0 Blue 2
9 AM Mon 64 65 E 8 2010 1500 0 Blue 5
10 AM Mon 67 68 W 7 2623 2007 507 Blue 8
11 AM Mon 70 72 W 7 3560 2798 1298 Blue 12
12 Noon Mon 72 74 W 7 4080 3207 1707 Blue 14
1 PM Mon 73 74 W 10 4080 3207 1707 Blue 14
2 PM Mon 74 75 W 10 4400 3541 2041 Blue 15
3 PM Mon 73 73 W 10 3808 3003 1503 Blue 13
4 PM Mon 70 70 W 8 3016 2308 808 Blue 10
5 PM Mon 65 65 W 8 2010 1500 0 Blue 5
6 PM Mon 61 61 W 8 1271 1500 0 Blue 1
7 PM Mon 59 59 W 1 1013 1500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 57 57 W 1 912 1500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 56 56 W 1 912 1500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 55 55 S 2 912 1500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 55 55 S 2 912 1500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 54 54 S 2 912 1500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 54 54 NW 0 912 1500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 55 55 NW 0 912 1500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 55 55 NW 0 912 1500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 54 54 E 2 912 1500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 54 54 E 2 912 1500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 54 54 E 2 912 1500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 55 55 S 1 912 1500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 59 59 S 1 1013 1500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 61 62 S 1 1452 1500 0 Blue 2
10 AM Tue 63 65 W 6 2010 1500 0 Blue 5
11 AM Tue 65 67 W 6 2321 1806 306 Blue 7
12 Noon Tue 67 69 W 6 2810 2098 598 Blue 9
1 PM Tue 68 70 W 8 3016 2308 808 Blue 10
2 PM Tue 68 69 W 8 2810 2098 598 Blue 9
3 PM Tue 67 67 W 8 2321 1806 306 Blue 7
4 PM Tue 65 65 W 8 2010 1500 0 Blue 5
5 PM Tue 62 62 W 8 1452 1500 0 Blue 2
6 PM Tue 60 60 W 8 1089 1500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 58 58 N 1 942 1500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 57 57 N 1 912 1500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 56 56 N 1 912 1500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 56 56 SE 1 912 1500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 55 55 SE 1 912 1500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 55 55 SE 1 912 1500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 55 55 E 2 912 1500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 56 56 E 2 912 1500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 56 56 E 2 912 1500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 55 55 E 3 912 1500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 55 55 E 3 912 1500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 55 55 E 3 912 1500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 56 56 SE 5 912 1500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 60 60 SE 5 1089 1500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 62 63 SE 5 1631 1500 0 Blue 3
10 AM Wed 64 65 SW 5 2010 1500 0 Blue 5
11 AM Wed 66 67 SW 5 2321 1806 306 Blue 7
12 Noon Wed 68 69 SW 5 2810 2098 598 Blue 9
1 PM Wed 69 70 W 9 3016 2308 808 Blue 10
2 PM Wed 69 70 W 9 3016 2308 808 Blue 10
3 PM Wed 68 68 W 9 2623 2007 507 Blue 8
4 PM Wed 66 66 W 7 2105 1628 128 Blue 6
5 PM Wed 63 63 W 7 1631 1500 0 Blue 3
6 PM Wed 61 61 W 7 1271 1500 0 Blue 1
7 PM Wed 59 59 SW 6 1013 1500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 58 58 SW 6 942 1500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 58 58 SW 6 942 1500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 57 57 S 3 912 1500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 56 56 S 3 912 1500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 56 56 S 3 912 1500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 56 56 SW 7 912 1500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 56 56 SW 7 912 1500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 57 57 SW 7 912 1500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 56 56 SW 1 912 1500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 56 56 SW 1 912 1500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 56 56 SW 1 912 1500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 57 57 SE 2 912 1500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 60 60 SE 2 1089 1500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 62 62 SE 2 1452 1500 0 Blue 2
10 AM Thu 64 64 W 6 1811 1500 0 Blue 4
11 AM Thu 66 67 W 6 2321 1806 306 Blue 7
12 Noon Thu 67 68 W 6 2623 2007 507 Blue 8
1 PM Thu 68 69 NW 12 2810 2098 598 Blue 9
2 PM Thu 68 68 NW 12 2623 2007 507 Blue 8
3 PM Thu 67 67 NW 12 2321 1806 306 Blue 7
4 PM Thu 65 65 NW 13 2010 1500 0 Blue 5
5 PM Thu 62 62 NW 13 1452 1500 0 Blue 2
6 PM Thu 60 60 NW 13 1089 1500 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 58 58 N 5 942 1500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 57 57 N 5 912 1500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 56 56 N 5 912 1500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 56 56 NE 2 912 1500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 55 55 NE 2 912 1500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 55 55 NE 2 912 1500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 55 55 E 2 912 1500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 56 56 E 2 912 1500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 56 56 E 2 912 1500 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst