SoaringPredictor for Blossom Valley

Detailed Predictions for: Blossom Valley
Launch Altitude (f): 1500
LZ Altitude (f): 700

Sounding
Station:	KNKX
Date/Time:	11 MAR 2010
Temp/Wind data from:	NOAA Digital Forecast

Time (Local)	High Temp	Puddle Temp	Wind (mph)	Thermal Ceiling (ft)	Soaring Ceiling (ft)	Above Launch (ft)	Thermal Type	Thermal Index (F)
7 AM Thu	39	39	S 3	860	1500	0	Blue	0
8 AM Thu	45	46	S 3	860	1500	0	Blue	0
9 AM Thu	53	56	S 3	3532	2728	1228	Blue	6
10 AM Thu	58	62	NE 4	5615	4320	2820	White	12
11 AM Thu	60	65	NE 4	6247	5640	4140	White	15
12 Noon Thu	63	69	NE 4	7084	6825	5325	White	18
1 PM Thu	63	68	NE 8	6876	6653	5153	White	17
2 PM Thu	63	67	NE 8	6666	6319	4819	White	16
3 PM Thu	62	64	NE 8	6036	5295	3795	White	14
4 PM Thu	60	61	NE 5	5346	4025	2525	Blue	11
5 PM Thu	58	58	NE 5	4052	3251	1751	Blue	8
6 PM Thu	55	55	NE 5	3271	2443	943	Blue	5
7 PM Thu	52	52	NE 3	2458	1500	0	Blue	2
8 PM Thu	50	50	NE 3	1776	1500	0	Blue	0
9 PM Thu	48	48	NE 3	860	1500	0	Blue	0
10 PM Thu	47	47	E 4	860	1500	0	Blue	0
11 PM Thu	47	47	E 4	860	1500	0	Blue	0
12 Midnight Fri	46	46	E 4	860	1500	0	Blue	0
1 AM Fri	44	44	E 5	860	1500	0	Blue	0
2 AM Fri	44	44	E 5	860	1500	0	Blue	0
3 AM Fri	44	44	E 5	860	1500	0	Blue	0
4 AM Fri	43	43	E 4	860	1500	0	Blue	0
5 AM Fri	42	42	E 4	860	1500	0	Blue	0
6 AM Fri	42	42	E 4	860	1500	0	Blue	0
7 AM Fri	43	43	E 4	860	1500	0	Blue	0
8 AM Fri	50	51	E 4	2152	1500	0	Blue	1
9 AM Fri	57	59	E 4	4400	3510	2010	Blue	9
10 AM Fri	62	66	W 7	6457	5981	4481	White	16
11 AM Fri	65	70	W 7	7276	6932	5432	Blue	19
12 Noon Fri	67	72	W 7	7491	7146	5646	Blue	21
1 PM Fri	68	72	W 8	7491	7146	5646	Blue	21
2 PM Fri	68	71	W 8	7384	7039	5539	Blue	20
3 PM Fri	67	69	W 8	7084	6825	5325	White	18
4 PM Fri	65	65	W 10	6247	5640	4140	White	15
5 PM Fri	63	63	W 10	5826	4946	3446	White	13
6 PM Fri	60	60	W 10	4993	3769	2269	Blue	10
7 PM Fri	57	57	W 4	3793	2990	1490	Blue	7
8 PM Fri	55	55	W 4	3271	2443	943	Blue	5
9 PM Fri	53	53	W 4	2743	1762	262	Blue	3
10 PM Fri	52	52	N 2	2458	1500	0	Blue	2
11 PM Fri	52	52	N 2	2458	1500	0	Blue	2
12 Midnight Sat	51	51	N 2	2152	1500	0	Blue	1
1 AM Sat	49	49	E 2	1247	1500	0	Blue	0
2 AM Sat	49	49	E 2	1247	1500	0	Blue	0
3 AM Sat	49	49	E 2	1247	1500	0	Blue	0
4 AM Sat	48	48	E 3	860	1500	0	Blue	0
5 AM Sat	47	47	E 3	860	1500	0	Blue	0
6 AM Sat	47	47	E 3	860	1500	0	Blue	0
7 AM Sat	48	48	E 3	860	1500	0	Blue	0
8 AM Sat	51	51	E 3	2152	1500	0	Blue	1
9 AM Sat	54	54	E 3	3008	2140	640	Blue	4
10 AM Sat	57	59	W 9	4400	3510	2010	Blue	9
11 AM Sat	58	61	W 9	5346	4025	2525	Blue	11
12 Noon Sat	59	62	W 9	5615	4320	2820	White	12
1 PM Sat	59	61	W 9	5346	4025	2525	Blue	11
2 PM Sat	60	62	W 9	5615	4320	2820	White	12
3 PM Sat	59	60	W 9	4993	3769	2269	Blue	10
4 PM Sat	57	57	W 12	3793	2990	1490	Blue	7
5 PM Sat	56	56	W 12	3532	2728	1228	Blue	6
6 PM Sat	53	53	W 12	2743	1762	262	Blue	3
7 PM Sat	52	52	W 12	2458	1500	0	Blue	2
8 PM Sat	50	50	W 12	1776	1500	0	Blue	0
9 PM Sat	49	49	W 12	1247	1500	0	Blue	0
10 PM Sat	48	48	E 2	860	1500	0	Blue	0
11 PM Sat	47	47	E 2	860	1500	0	Blue	0
12 Midnight Sun	47	47	E 2	860	1500	0	Blue	0
1 AM Sun	46	46	E 2	860	1500	0	Blue	0
2 AM Sun	46	46	E 2	860	1500	0	Blue	0
3 AM Sun	45	45	E 2	860	1500	0	Blue	0
4 AM Sun	45	45	E 4	860	1500	0	Blue	0
5 AM Sun	44	44	E 4	860	1500	0	Blue	0
6 AM Sun	44	44	E 4	860	1500	0	Blue	0
7 AM Sun	45	45	E 4	860	1500	0	Blue	0
8 AM Sun	51	51	E 4	2152	1500	0	Blue	1
9 AM Sun	57	58	E 4	4052	3251	1751	Blue	8
10 AM Sun	62	66	N 4	6457	5981	4481	White	16
11 AM Sun	64	69	N 4	7084	6825	5325	White	18
12 Noon Sun	67	72	N 4	7491	7146	5646	Blue	21
1 PM Sun	67	72	N 4	7491	7146	5646	Blue	21
2 PM Sun	67	71	N 4	7384	7039	5539	Blue	20
3 PM Sun	66	68	N 4	6876	6653	5153	White	17
4 PM Sun	64	65	NW 5	6247	5640	4140	White	15
5 PM Sun	63	63	NW 5	5826	4946	3446	White	13
6 PM Sun	59	59	NW 5	4400	3510	2010	Blue	9
7 PM Sun	57	57	NW 5	3793	2990	1490	Blue	7
8 PM Sun	55	55	NW 5	3271	2443	943	Blue	5
9 PM Sun	53	53	NW 5	2743	1762	262	Blue	3
10 PM Sun	52	52	E 6	2458	1500	0	Blue	2
11 PM Sun	52	52	E 6	2458	1500	0	Blue	2
12 Midnight Mon	51	51	E 6	2152	1500	0	Blue	1
1 AM Mon	49	49	E 6	1247	1500	0	Blue	0
2 AM Mon	49	49	E 6	1247	1500	0	Blue	0
3 AM Mon	49	49	E 6	1247	1500	0	Blue	0
4 AM Mon	48	48	E 8	860	1500	0	Blue	0
5 AM Mon	47	47	E 8	860	1500	0	Blue	0
6 AM Mon	47	47	E 8	860	1500	0	Blue	0
7 AM Mon	48	48	E 8	860	1500	0	Blue	0
8 AM Mon	56	57	E 8	3793	2990	1490	Blue	7
9 AM Mon	64	67	E 8	6666	6319	4819	White	16
10 AM Mon	70	74	E 10	8069	7360	5860	Blue	23
11 AM Mon	72	77	E 10	8740	7993	6493	White	26
12 Noon Mon	75	81	E 10	9529	9082	7582	Blue	30
1 PM Mon	76	81	E 10	9529	9082	7582	Blue	30
2 PM Mon	76	80	E 10	9363	8924	7424	White	29
3 PM Mon	74	76	E 10	8534	7676	6176	White	25
4 PM Mon	72	73	NE 9	7749	7253	5753	Blue	22
5 PM Mon	70	70	NE 9	7276	6932	5432	Blue	19
6 PM Mon	65	65	NE 9	6247	5640	4140	White	15
7 PM Mon	62	62	NE 9	5615	4320	2820	White	12
8 PM Mon	60	60	NE 9	4993	3769	2269	Blue	10
9 PM Mon	57	57	NE 9	3793	2990	1490	Blue	7
10 PM Mon	56	56	E 7	3532	2728	1228	Blue	6
11 PM Mon	55	55	E 7	3271	2443	943	Blue	5
12 Midnight Tue	54	54	E 7	3008	2140	640	Blue	4
1 AM Tue	52	52	E 7	2458	1500	0	Blue	2
2 AM Tue	52	52	E 7	2458	1500	0	Blue	2
3 AM Tue	51	51	E 7	2152	1500	0	Blue	1
4 AM Tue	50	50	E 9	1776	1500	0	Blue	0
5 AM Tue	50	50	E 9	1776	1500	0	Blue	0
6 AM Tue	49	49	E 9	1247	1500	0	Blue	0
7 AM Tue	50	50	E 9	1776	1500	0	Blue	0
8 AM Tue	58	59	E 9	4400	3510	2010	Blue	9
9 AM Tue	66	69	E 9	7084	6825	5325	White	18
10 AM Tue	72	76	E 9	8534	7676	6176	White	25
11 AM Tue	74	79	E 9	9154	8617	7117	White	28
12 Noon Tue	77	82	E 9	9665	9217	7717	Blue	31
1 PM Tue	78	83	E 9	9801	9353	7853	Blue	32
2 PM Tue	78	82	E 9	9665	9217	7717	Blue	31
3 PM Tue	76	78	E 9	8946	8306	6806	White	27
4 PM Tue	74	75	E 9	8327	7467	5967	White	24
5 PM Tue	71	71	E 9	7384	7039	5539	Blue	20
6 PM Tue	67	67	E 9	6666	6319	4819	White	16
7 PM Tue	64	64	E 9	6036	5295	3795	White	14
8 PM Tue	61	61	E 9	5346	4025	2525	Blue	11
9 PM Tue	58	58	E 9	4052	3251	1751	Blue	8
10 PM Tue	57	57	E 6	3793	2990	1490	Blue	7
11 PM Tue	56	56	E 6	3532	2728	1228	Blue	6
12 Midnight Wed	55	55	E 6	3271	2443	943	Blue	5
1 AM Wed	53	53	E 6	2743	1762	262	Blue	3
2 AM Wed	53	53	E 6	2743	1762	262	Blue	3
3 AM Wed	52	52	E 6	2458	1500	0	Blue	2
4 AM Wed	51	51	E 4	2152	1500	0	Blue	1
5 AM Wed	51	51	E 4	2152	1500	0	Blue	1
6 AM Wed	50	50	E 4	1776	1500	0	Blue	0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only. No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates. These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying. Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released. If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid. Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST). If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level. We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes. Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate. Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink. It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website. Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature.

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun. When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air. The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals. A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable. Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates.

Author: Tad Hurst