Detailed Predictions for: Blossom Valley
Launch Altitude (f): 1500
LZ Altitude (f): 700
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

21 JUL 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 60 60 NW 2 581 1500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 59 59 NW 2 581 1500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 60 60 W 2 581 1500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 64 64 W 1 1573 1500 0 White 2
9 AM Sun 68 69 W 1 2147 2082 582 Blue 7
10 AM Sun 72 74 W 2 2246 2186 686 Blue 12
11 AM Sun 78 83 W 3 2874 2598 1098 Blue 21
12 Noon Sun 83 89 W 3 4031 3541 2041 Blue 27
1 PM Sun 85 92 W 5 4420 4019 2519 Blue 30
2 PM Sun 85 91 W 7 4290 3889 2389 Blue 29
3 PM Sun 86 91 W 7 4290 3889 2389 Blue 29
4 PM Sun 85 89 W 6 4031 3541 2041 Blue 27
5 PM Sun 84 86 W 5 3562 2870 1370 Blue 24
6 PM Sun 82 83 W 5 2874 2598 1098 Blue 21
7 PM Sun 79 79 W 3 2520 2344 844 Blue 17
8 PM Sun 74 74 W 2 2246 2186 686 Blue 12
9 PM Sun 70 70 W 2 2167 2103 603 Blue 8
10 PM Sun 68 68 W 2 2125 2051 551 Blue 6
11 PM Sun 66 66 SW 2 2013 1625 125 White 4
12 Midnight Mon 65 65 SW 1 1793 1500 0 White 3
1 AM Mon 64 64 W 1 1573 1500 0 White 2
2 AM Mon 64 64 SW 1 1573 1500 0 White 2
3 AM Mon 64 64 SW 1 1573 1500 0 White 2
4 AM Mon 63 63 NW 1 1351 1500 0 White 1
5 AM Mon 63 63 S 1 1351 1500 0 White 1
6 AM Mon 62 62 S 1 1130 1500 0 White 0
7 AM Mon 63 63 SW 1 1351 1500 0 White 1
8 AM Mon 67 68 W 1 2125 2051 551 Blue 6
9 AM Mon 71 73 W 1 2226 2167 667 Blue 11
10 AM Mon 74 77 W 2 2397 2245 745 Blue 15
11 AM Mon 79 84 W 3 3041 2742 1242 Blue 22
12 Noon Mon 84 90 W 5 4161 3760 2260 Blue 28
1 PM Mon 86 92 W 6 4420 4019 2519 Blue 30
2 PM Mon 86 92 W 7 4420 4019 2519 Blue 30
3 PM Mon 87 92 W 7 4420 4019 2519 Blue 30
4 PM Mon 86 89 W 6 4031 3541 2041 Blue 27
5 PM Mon 85 87 W 5 3772 3023 1523 Blue 25
6 PM Mon 83 83 W 5 2874 2598 1098 Blue 21
7 PM Mon 80 80 W 3 2608 2395 895 Blue 18
8 PM Mon 76 76 SW 3 2346 2225 725 Blue 14
9 PM Mon 72 72 SW 2 2207 2146 646 Blue 10
10 PM Mon 70 70 SW 2 2167 2103 603 Blue 8
11 PM Mon 69 69 SW 2 2147 2082 582 Blue 7
12 Midnight Tue 68 68 W 1 2125 2051 551 Blue 6
1 AM Tue 67 67 NW 1 2104 1995 495 Blue 5
2 AM Tue 67 67 NW 1 2104 1995 495 Blue 5
3 AM Tue 66 66 NW 1 2013 1625 125 White 4
4 AM Tue 66 66 N 1 2013 1625 125 White 4
5 AM Tue 66 66 N 1 2013 1625 125 White 4
6 AM Tue 65 65 N 1 1793 1500 0 White 3
7 AM Tue 66 66 W 1 2013 1625 125 White 4
8 AM Tue 70 71 W 1 2187 2124 624 Blue 9
9 AM Tue 74 76 W 1 2346 2225 725 Blue 14
10 AM Tue 78 81 W 2 2746 2446 946 Blue 19
11 AM Tue 84 87 W 3 3772 3023 1523 Blue 25
12 Noon Tue 89 93 W 6 4549 4148 2648 Blue 31
1 PM Tue 91 95 W 8 4808 4406 2906 Blue 33
2 PM Tue 91 95 W 9 4808 4406 2906 Blue 33
3 PM Tue 92 95 W 9 4808 4406 2906 Blue 33
4 PM Tue 91 93 W 8 4549 4148 2648 Blue 31
5 PM Tue 90 91 W 6 4290 3889 2389 Blue 29
6 PM Tue 88 88 W 5 3902 3285 1785 Blue 26
7 PM Tue 85 85 W 3 3304 2806 1306 Blue 23
8 PM Tue 79 79 NW 2 2520 2344 844 Blue 17
9 PM Tue 75 75 W 2 2295 2206 706 Blue 13
10 PM Tue 73 73 SW 2 2226 2167 667 Blue 11
11 PM Tue 71 71 SW 1 2187 2124 624 Blue 9
12 Midnight Wed 70 70 S 1 2167 2103 603 Blue 8
1 AM Wed 70 70 S 1 2167 2103 603 Blue 8
2 AM Wed 70 70 S 1 2167 2103 603 Blue 8
3 AM Wed 69 69 S 1 2147 2082 582 Blue 7
4 AM Wed 68 68 SW 1 2125 2051 551 Blue 6
5 AM Wed 68 68 SW 1 2125 2051 551 Blue 6
6 AM Wed 67 67 SW 1 2104 1995 495 Blue 5
7 AM Wed 68 68 SW 1 2125 2051 551 Blue 6
8 AM Wed 72 73 W 2 2226 2167 667 Blue 11
9 AM Wed 76 78 W 2 2448 2293 793 Blue 16
10 AM Wed 80 83 W 2 2874 2598 1098 Blue 21
11 AM Wed 84 88 W 3 3902 3285 1785 Blue 26
12 Noon Wed 89 94 W 3 4679 4277 2777 Blue 32
1 PM Wed 91 96 W 3 4938 4535 3035 Blue 34
2 PM Wed 91 96 W 8 4938 4535 3035 Blue 34
3 PM Wed 92 96 W 8 4938 4535 3035 Blue 34
4 PM Wed 91 94 W 8 4679 4277 2777 Blue 32
5 PM Wed 90 91 SW 5 4290 3889 2389 Blue 29
6 PM Wed 88 88 SW 5 3902 3285 1785 Blue 26
7 PM Wed 84 84 SW 5 3041 2742 1242 Blue 22
8 PM Wed 79 79 W 2 2520 2344 844 Blue 17
9 PM Wed 74 74 W 2 2246 2186 686 Blue 12
10 PM Wed 72 72 W 2 2207 2146 646 Blue 10
11 PM Wed 70 70 SW 2 2167 2103 603 Blue 8
12 Midnight Thu 69 69 SW 2 2147 2082 582 Blue 7
1 AM Thu 69 69 SW 2 2147 2082 582 Blue 7
2 AM Thu 69 69 SW 1 2147 2082 582 Blue 7
3 AM Thu 68 68 SW 1 2125 2051 551 Blue 6
4 AM Thu 67 67 SW 1 2104 1995 495 Blue 5
5 AM Thu 67 67 SW 1 2104 1995 495 Blue 5
6 AM Thu 66 66 SW 1 2013 1625 125 White 4
7 AM Thu 67 67 SW 1 2104 1995 495 Blue 5
8 AM Thu 71 72 W 1 2207 2146 646 Blue 10
9 AM Thu 75 77 W 1 2397 2245 745 Blue 15
10 AM Thu 79 82 W 1 2810 2517 1017 Blue 20
11 AM Thu 84 89 W 5 4031 3541 2041 Blue 27
12 Noon Thu 89 95 W 5 4808 4406 2906 Blue 33
1 PM Thu 91 97 W 5 5066 4664 3164 Blue 35
2 PM Thu 91 97 W 7 5066 4664 3164 Blue 35
3 PM Thu 92 97 W 7 5066 4664 3164 Blue 35
4 PM Thu 91 94 W 7 4679 4277 2777 Blue 32
5 PM Thu 90 92 W 6 4420 4019 2519 Blue 30
6 PM Thu 88 88 W 6 3902 3285 1785 Blue 26
7 PM Thu 84 84 W 6 3041 2742 1242 Blue 22
8 PM Thu 78 78 SW 3 2448 2293 793 Blue 16
9 PM Thu 74 74 SW 3 2246 2186 686 Blue 12
10 PM Thu 71 71 SW 3 2187 2124 624 Blue 9
11 PM Thu 70 70 SW 2 2167 2103 603 Blue 8
12 Midnight Fri 68 68 SW 2 2125 2051 551 Blue 6
1 AM Fri 68 68 SW 2 2125 2051 551 Blue 6
2 AM Fri 68 68 N 1 2125 2051 551 Blue 6
3 AM Fri 67 67 N 1 2104 1995 495 Blue 5
4 AM Fri 66 66 N 1 2013 1625 125 White 4
5 AM Fri 66 66 W 1 2013 1625 125 White 4
6 AM Fri 65 65 W 1 1793 1500 0 White 3
7 AM Fri 66 66 W 1 2013 1625 125 White 4
8 AM Fri 70 71 W 1 2187 2124 624 Blue 9
9 AM Fri 74 76 W 1 2346 2225 725 Blue 14
10 AM Fri 78 82 W 1 2810 2517 1017 Blue 20
11 AM Fri 82 88 W 5 3902 3285 1785 Blue 26
12 Noon Fri 87 94 W 5 4679 4277 2777 Blue 32
1 PM Fri 89 97 W 5 5066 4664 3164 Blue 35
2 PM Fri 89 96 W 8 4938 4535 3035 Blue 34
3 PM Fri 90 96 W 8 4938 4535 3035 Blue 34
4 PM Fri 89 93 W 8 4549 4148 2648 Blue 31
5 PM Fri 87 89 W 7 4031 3541 2041 Blue 27
6 PM Fri 85 86 W 7 3562 2870 1370 Blue 24
7 PM Fri 82 82 W 7 2810 2517 1017 Blue 20
8 PM Fri 76 76 W 3 2346 2225 725 Blue 14
9 PM Fri 71 71 W 3 2187 2124 624 Blue 9
10 PM Fri 68 68 W 3 2125 2051 551 Blue 6
11 PM Fri 67 67 SW 2 2104 1995 495 Blue 5
12 Midnight Sat 65 65 SW 2 1793 1500 0 White 3
1 AM Sat 65 65 SW 2 1793 1500 0 White 3
2 AM Sat 65 65 NW 1 1793 1500 0 White 3
3 AM Sat 64 64 NW 1 1573 1500 0 White 2
4 AM Sat 63 63 NW 1 1351 1500 0 White 1

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst