Detailed Predictions for: Blossom Valley
Launch Altitude (f): 1500
LZ Altitude (f): 700
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

11 NOV 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Mon 50 50 NW 1 440 1500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 50 50 NW 1 440 1500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 50 50 NW 1 440 1500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 52 52 N 1 440 1500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 56 56 NW 1 999 1500 0 White 0
9 AM Mon 61 62 W 1 1856 1800 300 Blue 5
10 AM Mon 67 70 W 3 2050 1928 428 Blue 13
11 AM Mon 72 75 W 5 2529 2254 754 Blue 18
12 Noon Mon 75 78 W 5 2890 2522 1022 Blue 21
1 PM Mon 77 80 W 6 3139 2783 1283 Blue 23
2 PM Mon 76 78 W 6 2890 2522 1022 Blue 21
3 PM Mon 75 76 W 6 2686 2398 898 Blue 19
4 PM Mon 72 72 W 5 2262 2005 505 Blue 15
5 PM Mon 67 67 W 3 1929 1885 385 Blue 10
6 PM Mon 62 62 W 2 1856 1800 300 Blue 5
7 PM Mon 57 57 SW 1 1221 1500 0 White 0
8 PM Mon 54 54 S 1 440 1500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 52 52 S 1 440 1500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 52 52 SE 1 440 1500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 53 53 E 1 440 1500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 53 53 SE 2 440 1500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 54 54 SE 3 440 1500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 54 54 SE 3 440 1500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 54 54 E 3 440 1500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 54 54 E 5 440 1500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 56 56 E 6 999 1500 0 White 0
6 AM Tue 58 58 E 6 1441 1500 0 White 0
7 AM Tue 62 62 E 6 1856 1800 300 Blue 5
8 AM Tue 66 66 NE 6 1914 1870 370 Blue 9
9 AM Tue 71 72 NW 5 2262 2005 505 Blue 15
10 AM Tue 76 78 W 3 2890 2522 1022 Blue 21
11 AM Tue 79 82 W 5 3512 3006 1506 Blue 25
12 Noon Tue 82 85 W 6 5747 3481 1981 Blue 28
1 PM Tue 82 85 W 7 5747 3481 1981 Blue 28
2 PM Tue 83 85 W 7 5747 3481 1981 Blue 28
3 PM Tue 80 81 W 6 3318 2882 1382 Blue 24
4 PM Tue 76 76 W 5 2686 2398 898 Blue 19
5 PM Tue 71 71 SW 3 2137 1963 463 Blue 14
6 PM Tue 65 65 S 2 1900 1856 356 Blue 8
7 PM Tue 60 60 SE 2 1827 1707 207 Blue 3
8 PM Tue 57 57 SE 2 1221 1500 0 White 0
9 PM Tue 56 56 E 2 999 1500 0 White 0
10 PM Tue 56 56 E 3 999 1500 0 White 0
11 PM Tue 55 55 E 3 974 1500 0 White 0
12 Midnight Wed 55 55 E 3 974 1500 0 White 0
1 AM Wed 54 54 E 5 440 1500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 54 54 E 3 440 1500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 54 54 E 3 440 1500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 54 54 E 3 440 1500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 56 56 E 3 999 1500 0 White 0
6 AM Wed 58 58 E 3 1441 1500 0 White 0
7 AM Wed 60 60 E 3 1827 1707 207 Blue 3
8 AM Wed 64 64 SE 3 1885 1841 341 Blue 7
9 AM Wed 68 69 SW 3 2007 1914 414 Blue 12
10 AM Wed 73 74 SW 3 2456 2134 634 Blue 17
11 AM Wed 77 79 W 5 3014 2676 1176 Blue 22
12 Noon Wed 80 82 W 7 3512 3006 1506 Blue 25
1 PM Wed 80 81 W 8 3318 2882 1382 Blue 24
2 PM Wed 80 81 W 8 3318 2882 1382 Blue 24
3 PM Wed 77 77 W 7 2788 2454 954 Blue 20
4 PM Wed 73 73 W 6 2401 2048 548 Blue 16
5 PM Wed 68 68 NW 5 1964 1899 399 Blue 11
6 PM Wed 63 63 N 2 1871 1827 327 Blue 6
7 PM Wed 60 60 NE 1 1827 1707 207 Blue 3
8 PM Wed 58 58 N 1 1441 1500 0 White 0
9 PM Wed 57 57 W 1 1221 1500 0 White 0
10 PM Wed 56 56 SW 1 999 1500 0 White 0
11 PM Wed 55 55 SW 1 974 1500 0 White 0
12 Midnight Thu 54 54 W 1 440 1500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 53 53 NW 1 440 1500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 52 52 NW 1 440 1500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 52 52 W 1 440 1500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 52 52 W 1 440 1500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 52 52 W 1 440 1500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 53 53 W 1 440 1500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 55 55 NE 1 974 1500 0 White 0
8 AM Thu 58 58 NE 1 1441 1500 0 White 0
9 AM Thu 63 63 NE 1 1871 1827 327 Blue 6
10 AM Thu 68 69 W 5 2007 1914 414 Blue 12
11 AM Thu 72 74 W 5 2456 2134 634 Blue 17
12 Noon Thu 76 78 W 5 2890 2522 1022 Blue 21
1 PM Thu 76 77 W 7 2788 2454 954 Blue 20
2 PM Thu 76 77 W 7 2788 2454 954 Blue 20
3 PM Thu 73 73 W 7 2401 2048 548 Blue 16
4 PM Thu 70 70 W 7 2050 1928 428 Blue 13
5 PM Thu 65 65 W 7 1900 1856 356 Blue 8
6 PM Thu 62 62 W 7 1856 1800 300 Blue 5
7 PM Thu 58 58 N 2 1441 1500 0 White 0
8 PM Thu 56 56 N 2 999 1500 0 White 0
9 PM Thu 55 55 N 2 974 1500 0 White 0
10 PM Thu 55 55 S 1 974 1500 0 White 0
11 PM Thu 54 54 S 1 440 1500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 53 53 S 1 440 1500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 53 53 SW 2 440 1500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 52 52 SW 2 440 1500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 51 51 SW 2 440 1500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 51 51 SW 1 440 1500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 50 50 SW 1 440 1500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 50 50 SW 1 440 1500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 52 52 SE 1 440 1500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 56 56 SE 1 999 1500 0 White 0
9 AM Fri 61 61 SE 1 1842 1753 253 Blue 4
10 AM Fri 66 68 W 5 1964 1899 399 Blue 11
11 AM Fri 71 73 W 5 2401 2048 548 Blue 16
12 Noon Fri 74 76 W 5 2686 2398 898 Blue 19
1 PM Fri 75 77 W 8 2788 2454 954 Blue 20
2 PM Fri 76 77 W 8 2788 2454 954 Blue 20
3 PM Fri 74 74 W 8 2456 2134 634 Blue 17
4 PM Fri 69 69 W 6 2007 1914 414 Blue 12
5 PM Fri 64 64 W 6 1885 1841 341 Blue 7
6 PM Fri 59 59 W 6 1662 1500 0 White 0
7 PM Fri 54 54 NW 3 440 1500 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 52 52 NW 3 440 1500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 51 51 NW 3 440 1500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 52 52 E 2 440 1500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 52 52 E 2 440 1500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 52 52 E 2 440 1500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 51 51 S 0 440 1500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 51 51 S 0 440 1500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 50 50 S 0 440 1500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 50 50 E 1 440 1500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 51 51 E 1 440 1500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 52 52 E 1 440 1500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 55 55 SE 3 974 1500 0 White 0
8 AM Sat 59 59 SE 3 1662 1500 0 White 0
9 AM Sat 64 65 SE 3 1900 1856 356 Blue 8
10 AM Sat 69 72 W 3 2262 2005 505 Blue 15
11 AM Sat 73 76 W 3 2686 2398 898 Blue 19
12 Noon Sat 77 80 W 3 3139 2783 1283 Blue 23
1 PM Sat 79 82 W 6 3512 3006 1506 Blue 25
2 PM Sat 79 81 W 6 3318 2882 1382 Blue 24
3 PM Sat 79 80 W 6 3139 2783 1283 Blue 23
4 PM Sat 76 76 W 7 2686 2398 898 Blue 19
5 PM Sat 72 72 W 7 2262 2005 505 Blue 15
6 PM Sat 66 66 W 7 1914 1870 370 Blue 9
7 PM Sat 61 61 E 5 1842 1753 253 Blue 4
8 PM Sat 59 59 E 5 1662 1500 0 White 0
9 PM Sat 58 58 E 5 1441 1500 0 White 0
10 PM Sat 58 58 E 6 1441 1500 0 White 0
11 PM Sat 58 58 E 6 1441 1500 0 White 0
12 Midnight Sun 58 58 E 6 1441 1500 0 White 0
1 AM Sun 57 57 N 5 1221 1500 0 White 0
2 AM Sun 56 56 N 5 999 1500 0 White 0
3 AM Sun 54 54 N 5 440 1500 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst