Detailed Predictions for: Blossom Valley
Launch Altitude (f): 1500
LZ Altitude (f): 700
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

18 SEP 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Wed 59 59 S 2 607 1500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 59 59 S 2 607 1500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 60 60 SE 2 607 1500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 62 62 S 2 1032 1500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 66 67 SW 1 1653 1500 0 Blue 3
10 AM Wed 70 73 SW 1 2724 2015 515 Blue 9
11 AM Wed 74 79 W 3 3402 3033 1533 Blue 15
12 Noon Wed 77 83 W 3 4267 3529 2029 Blue 19
1 PM Wed 80 86 W 6 4991 4240 2740 Blue 22
2 PM Wed 80 86 W 8 4991 4240 2740 Blue 22
3 PM Wed 81 85 W 8 4773 3987 2487 Blue 21
4 PM Wed 79 82 W 7 4012 3391 1891 Blue 18
5 PM Wed 76 77 W 7 3124 2894 1394 Blue 13
6 PM Wed 73 73 W 6 2724 2015 515 Blue 9
7 PM Wed 69 69 W 5 1805 1584 84 Blue 5
8 PM Wed 66 66 W 2 1586 1500 0 Blue 2
9 PM Wed 64 64 SW 2 1452 1500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 62 62 SW 2 1032 1500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 61 61 S 2 794 1500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 60 60 S 2 607 1500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 59 59 S 2 607 1500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 58 58 S 2 607 1500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 58 58 SW 2 607 1500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 58 58 W 2 607 1500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 57 57 S 2 607 1500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 57 57 S 2 607 1500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 57 57 S 2 607 1500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 59 59 SW 2 607 1500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 62 63 SW 2 1270 1500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 67 69 SW 3 1805 1584 84 Blue 5
11 AM Thu 71 76 SW 3 3039 2697 1197 Blue 12
12 Noon Thu 74 80 SW 6 3540 3118 1618 Blue 16
1 PM Thu 76 82 W 7 4012 3391 1891 Blue 18
2 PM Thu 76 81 W 8 3756 3253 1753 Blue 17
3 PM Thu 77 81 W 9 3756 3253 1753 Blue 17
4 PM Thu 75 77 W 9 3124 2894 1394 Blue 13
5 PM Thu 73 74 W 8 2898 2195 695 Blue 10
6 PM Thu 70 70 W 7 2022 1651 151 Blue 6
7 PM Thu 66 66 W 5 1586 1500 0 Blue 2
8 PM Thu 64 64 W 3 1452 1500 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 62 62 W 2 1032 1500 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 61 61 W 2 794 1500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 60 60 W 2 607 1500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 59 59 SW 2 607 1500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 57 57 SE 2 607 1500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 56 56 E 2 607 1500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 55 55 E 2 607 1500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 55 55 E 2 607 1500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 55 55 E 2 607 1500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 55 55 NE 1 607 1500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 56 56 N 1 607 1500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 58 58 NW 2 607 1500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 62 63 NW 2 1270 1500 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 67 70 W 2 2022 1651 151 Blue 6
11 AM Fri 72 77 W 3 3124 2894 1394 Blue 13
12 Noon Fri 76 82 W 5 4012 3391 1891 Blue 18
1 PM Fri 80 86 W 6 4991 4240 2740 Blue 22
2 PM Fri 82 88 W 8 5206 4743 3243 Blue 24
3 PM Fri 81 85 W 8 4773 3987 2487 Blue 21
4 PM Fri 81 84 W 8 4520 3733 2233 Blue 20
5 PM Fri 78 79 W 7 3402 3033 1533 Blue 15
6 PM Fri 75 75 W 6 2964 2299 799 Blue 11
7 PM Fri 72 72 NW 3 2303 1799 299 Blue 8
8 PM Fri 69 69 NW 2 1805 1584 84 Blue 5
9 PM Fri 67 67 NW 1 1653 1500 0 Blue 3
10 PM Fri 66 66 NW 1 1586 1500 0 Blue 2
11 PM Fri 65 65 NW 2 1519 1500 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Sat 63 63 W 2 1270 1500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 62 62 SW 2 1032 1500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 61 61 SW 2 794 1500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 60 60 W 2 607 1500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 59 59 NW 2 607 1500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 59 59 N 1 607 1500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 59 59 N 1 607 1500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 60 60 N 1 607 1500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 63 63 NW 2 1270 1500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 66 67 NW 2 1653 1500 0 Blue 3
10 AM Sat 71 74 NW 2 2898 2195 695 Blue 10
11 AM Sat 76 81 W 2 3756 3253 1753 Blue 17
12 Noon Sat 81 87 W 2 5103 4492 2992 Blue 23
1 PM Sat 84 90 W 2 5411 5090 3590 Blue 26
2 PM Sat 86 92 W 7 5911 5294 3794 Blue 28
3 PM Sat 85 89 W 7 5309 4969 3469 Blue 25
4 PM Sat 84 87 W 7 5103 4492 2992 Blue 23
5 PM Sat 81 82 W 6 4012 3391 1891 Blue 18
6 PM Sat 78 78 W 6 3263 2960 1460 Blue 14
7 PM Sat 74 74 W 6 2898 2195 695 Blue 10
8 PM Sat 70 70 W 1 2022 1651 151 Blue 6
9 PM Sat 66 66 W 1 1586 1500 0 Blue 2
10 PM Sat 63 63 W 1 1270 1500 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 61 61 SW 2 794 1500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 61 61 SW 2 794 1500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 62 62 SW 2 1032 1500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 62 62 SE 2 1032 1500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 62 62 SE 2 1032 1500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 62 62 SE 2 1032 1500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 62 62 SE 3 1032 1500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 63 63 SE 3 1270 1500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 64 64 SE 3 1452 1500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 67 67 W 2 1653 1500 0 Blue 3
9 AM Sun 70 71 W 2 2199 1718 218 Blue 7
10 AM Sun 75 78 W 2 3263 2960 1460 Blue 14
11 AM Sun 79 83 SW 3 4267 3529 2029 Blue 19
12 Noon Sun 83 88 SW 3 5206 4743 3243 Blue 24
1 PM Sun 86 91 SW 3 5589 5192 3692 Blue 27
2 PM Sun 86 91 SW 9 5589 5192 3692 Blue 27
3 PM Sun 86 90 SW 9 5411 5090 3590 Blue 26
4 PM Sun 84 86 SW 9 4991 4240 2740 Blue 22
5 PM Sun 81 82 SW 7 4012 3391 1891 Blue 18
6 PM Sun 78 78 SW 7 3263 2960 1460 Blue 14
7 PM Sun 74 74 SW 7 2898 2195 695 Blue 10
8 PM Sun 71 71 SW 2 2199 1718 218 Blue 7
9 PM Sun 68 68 SW 2 1720 1517 17 Blue 4
10 PM Sun 66 66 SW 2 1586 1500 0 Blue 2
11 PM Sun 64 64 SW 3 1452 1500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 62 62 SW 3 1032 1500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 61 61 SW 3 794 1500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 60 60 SW 3 607 1500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 59 59 SW 3 607 1500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 59 59 SW 3 607 1500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 59 59 S 5 607 1500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 59 59 S 5 607 1500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 59 59 S 5 607 1500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 61 61 S 7 794 1500 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 65 66 S 7 1586 1500 0 Blue 2
10 AM Mon 70 73 S 7 2724 2015 515 Blue 9
11 AM Mon 75 79 SW 10 3402 3033 1533 Blue 15
12 Noon Mon 78 83 SW 10 4267 3529 2029 Blue 19
1 PM Mon 80 85 SW 10 4773 3987 2487 Blue 21
2 PM Mon 80 84 W 9 4520 3733 2233 Blue 20
3 PM Mon 81 84 W 9 4520 3733 2233 Blue 20
4 PM Mon 80 82 W 9 4012 3391 1891 Blue 18
5 PM Mon 78 79 SW 8 3402 3033 1533 Blue 15
6 PM Mon 76 76 SW 8 3039 2697 1197 Blue 12
7 PM Mon 73 73 SW 8 2724 2015 515 Blue 9
8 PM Mon 70 70 SW 5 2022 1651 151 Blue 6
9 PM Mon 67 67 SW 5 1653 1500 0 Blue 3
10 PM Mon 65 65 SW 5 1519 1500 0 Blue 1
11 PM Mon 63 63 SE 2 1270 1500 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 61 61 SE 2 794 1500 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 60 60 SE 2 607 1500 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 59 59 SE 5 607 1500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 58 58 SE 5 607 1500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 57 57 SE 5 607 1500 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst