Detailed Predictions for: Blossom Valley
Launch Altitude (f): 1500
LZ Altitude (f): 700
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

21 SEP 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Fri 62 62 NE 0 1203 1500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 61 61 E 1 1037 1500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 61 61 SE 1 1037 1500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 64 64 SW 1 1380 1500 0 Blue 1
9 AM Fri 67 69 W 2 1545 1500 0 Blue 6
10 AM Fri 71 74 W 5 1825 1655 155 Blue 11
11 AM Fri 76 81 W 8 2139 1970 470 Blue 18
12 Noon Fri 80 86 W 9 3084 2305 805 Blue 23
1 PM Fri 83 89 W 9 3412 3078 1578 Blue 26
2 PM Fri 83 88 W 10 3287 2997 1497 Blue 25
3 PM Fri 84 88 W 10 3287 2997 1497 Blue 25
4 PM Fri 83 85 W 10 3002 2206 706 Blue 22
5 PM Fri 81 82 W 9 2208 2000 500 Blue 19
6 PM Fri 78 78 W 8 1970 1869 369 Blue 15
7 PM Fri 74 74 W 7 1825 1655 155 Blue 11
8 PM Fri 71 71 W 3 1656 1511 11 Blue 8
9 PM Fri 69 69 W 2 1545 1500 0 Blue 6
10 PM Fri 67 67 W 2 1479 1500 0 Blue 4
11 PM Fri 66 66 SW 1 1446 1500 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Sat 66 66 S 1 1446 1500 0 Blue 3
1 AM Sat 66 66 SW 1 1446 1500 0 Blue 3
2 AM Sat 65 65 NW 1 1413 1500 0 Blue 2
3 AM Sat 65 65 N 0 1413 1500 0 Blue 2
4 AM Sat 65 65 N 1 1413 1500 0 Blue 2
5 AM Sat 65 65 N 1 1413 1500 0 Blue 2
6 AM Sat 64 64 N 0 1380 1500 0 Blue 1
7 AM Sat 64 64 NE 0 1380 1500 0 Blue 1
8 AM Sat 67 67 SW 1 1479 1500 0 Blue 4
9 AM Sat 70 71 W 2 1656 1511 11 Blue 8
10 AM Sat 75 78 W 3 1970 1869 369 Blue 15
11 AM Sat 80 85 W 8 3002 2206 706 Blue 22
12 Noon Sat 85 91 W 8 3777 3277 1777 Blue 28
1 PM Sat 88 94 W 9 4404 3759 2259 Blue 31
2 PM Sat 88 93 W 12 4191 3553 2053 Blue 30
3 PM Sat 89 93 W 10 4191 3553 2053 Blue 30
4 PM Sat 87 89 W 10 3412 3078 1578 Blue 26
5 PM Sat 85 86 W 9 3084 2305 805 Blue 23
6 PM Sat 82 82 W 8 2208 2000 500 Blue 19
7 PM Sat 76 76 W 7 1909 1767 267 Blue 13
8 PM Sat 72 72 W 3 1713 1544 44 Blue 9
9 PM Sat 69 69 W 3 1545 1500 0 Blue 6
10 PM Sat 67 67 W 3 1479 1500 0 Blue 4
11 PM Sat 66 66 SW 1 1446 1500 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Sun 65 65 S 0 1413 1500 0 Blue 2
1 AM Sun 65 65 SW 1 1413 1500 0 Blue 2
2 AM Sun 64 64 S 1 1380 1500 0 Blue 1
3 AM Sun 64 64 S 1 1380 1500 0 Blue 1
4 AM Sun 64 64 SW 1 1380 1500 0 Blue 1
5 AM Sun 64 64 SE 1 1380 1500 0 Blue 1
6 AM Sun 63 63 S 0 1347 1500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 63 63 S 1 1347 1500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 66 66 SW 2 1446 1500 0 Blue 3
9 AM Sun 69 70 W 5 1600 1500 0 Blue 7
10 AM Sun 73 76 W 6 1909 1767 267 Blue 13
11 AM Sun 77 82 W 8 2208 2000 500 Blue 19
12 Noon Sun 81 87 W 10 3165 2852 1352 Blue 24
1 PM Sun 84 90 W 12 3570 3160 1660 Blue 27
2 PM Sun 84 90 W 13 3570 3160 1660 Blue 27
3 PM Sun 85 89 W 12 3412 3078 1578 Blue 26
4 PM Sun 84 86 W 12 3084 2305 805 Blue 23
5 PM Sun 82 83 W 9 2317 2049 549 Blue 20
6 PM Sun 79 79 W 8 2001 1908 408 Blue 16
7 PM Sun 74 74 W 7 1825 1655 155 Blue 11
8 PM Sun 70 70 W 3 1600 1500 0 Blue 7
9 PM Sun 67 67 W 2 1479 1500 0 Blue 4
10 PM Sun 66 66 W 2 1446 1500 0 Blue 3
11 PM Sun 65 65 W 1 1413 1500 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Mon 64 64 SE 1 1380 1500 0 Blue 1
1 AM Mon 64 64 SE 1 1380 1500 0 Blue 1
2 AM Mon 63 63 S 1 1347 1500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 63 63 S 1 1347 1500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 63 63 SE 0 1347 1500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 63 63 SW 2 1347 1500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 62 62 SW 2 1203 1500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 62 62 SW 2 1203 1500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 65 65 W 1 1413 1500 0 Blue 2
9 AM Mon 68 69 W 1 1545 1500 0 Blue 6
10 AM Mon 72 75 W 1 1871 1711 211 Blue 12
11 AM Mon 77 82 W 8 2208 2000 500 Blue 19
12 Noon Mon 81 87 W 8 3165 2852 1352 Blue 24
1 PM Mon 84 90 W 8 3570 3160 1660 Blue 27
2 PM Mon 85 91 W 13 3777 3277 1777 Blue 28
3 PM Mon 85 89 W 13 3412 3078 1578 Blue 26
4 PM Mon 84 87 W 13 3165 2852 1352 Blue 24
5 PM Mon 82 83 W 10 2317 2049 549 Blue 20
6 PM Mon 79 79 W 10 2001 1908 408 Blue 16
7 PM Mon 74 74 W 10 1825 1655 155 Blue 11
8 PM Mon 70 70 W 2 1600 1500 0 Blue 7
9 PM Mon 67 67 W 2 1479 1500 0 Blue 4
10 PM Mon 66 66 W 2 1446 1500 0 Blue 3
11 PM Mon 65 65 SW 2 1413 1500 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Tue 64 64 SW 2 1380 1500 0 Blue 1
1 AM Tue 64 64 SW 2 1380 1500 0 Blue 1
2 AM Tue 63 63 NW 1 1347 1500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 63 63 NW 1 1347 1500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 63 63 NW 1 1347 1500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 63 63 NW 2 1347 1500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 62 62 NW 2 1203 1500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 62 62 NW 2 1203 1500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 65 65 W 2 1413 1500 0 Blue 2
9 AM Tue 68 69 W 2 1545 1500 0 Blue 6
10 AM Tue 72 75 W 2 1871 1711 211 Blue 12
11 AM Tue 77 82 W 8 2208 2000 500 Blue 19
12 Noon Tue 81 87 W 8 3165 2852 1352 Blue 24
1 PM Tue 84 90 W 8 3570 3160 1660 Blue 27
2 PM Tue 85 91 W 12 3777 3277 1777 Blue 28
3 PM Tue 85 89 W 12 3412 3078 1578 Blue 26
4 PM Tue 84 86 W 12 3084 2305 805 Blue 23
5 PM Tue 82 83 W 9 2317 2049 549 Blue 20
6 PM Tue 79 79 W 9 2001 1908 408 Blue 16
7 PM Tue 74 74 W 9 1825 1655 155 Blue 11
8 PM Tue 70 70 W 3 1600 1500 0 Blue 7
9 PM Tue 67 67 W 3 1479 1500 0 Blue 4
10 PM Tue 66 66 W 3 1446 1500 0 Blue 3
11 PM Tue 65 65 SW 2 1413 1500 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Wed 64 64 SW 2 1380 1500 0 Blue 1
1 AM Wed 64 64 SW 2 1380 1500 0 Blue 1
2 AM Wed 63 63 N 2 1347 1500 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 63 63 N 2 1347 1500 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 63 63 N 2 1347 1500 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 63 63 W 1 1347 1500 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 62 62 W 1 1203 1500 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 62 62 W 1 1203 1500 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 65 65 W 2 1413 1500 0 Blue 2
9 AM Wed 68 70 W 2 1600 1500 0 Blue 7
10 AM Wed 73 76 W 2 1909 1767 267 Blue 13
11 AM Wed 78 83 W 8 2317 2049 549 Blue 20
12 Noon Wed 82 88 W 8 3287 2997 1497 Blue 25
1 PM Wed 85 91 W 8 3777 3277 1777 Blue 28
2 PM Wed 86 91 W 13 3777 3277 1777 Blue 28
3 PM Wed 86 90 W 13 3570 3160 1660 Blue 27
4 PM Wed 85 87 W 13 3165 2852 1352 Blue 24
5 PM Wed 83 84 W 9 2865 2136 636 Blue 21
6 PM Wed 80 80 W 9 2052 1939 439 Blue 17
7 PM Wed 75 75 W 9 1871 1711 211 Blue 12
8 PM Wed 72 72 NW 2 1713 1544 44 Blue 9
9 PM Wed 69 69 NW 2 1545 1500 0 Blue 6
10 PM Wed 68 68 NW 2 1512 1500 0 Blue 5
11 PM Wed 67 67 W 1 1479 1500 0 Blue 4
12 Midnight Thu 66 66 W 1 1446 1500 0 Blue 3
1 AM Thu 66 66 W 1 1446 1500 0 Blue 3
2 AM Thu 65 65 N 1 1413 1500 0 Blue 2
3 AM Thu 65 65 N 1 1413 1500 0 Blue 2
4 AM Thu 65 65 N 1 1413 1500 0 Blue 2

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst