Detailed Predictions for: Blossom Valley
Launch Altitude (f): 1500
LZ Altitude (f): 700
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Wed 53 53 S 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Wed 53 53 S 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Wed 53 53 SE 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Wed 53 53 SE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Wed 56 56 SE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Wed 59 59 S 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Wed 60 60 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Wed 62 62 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Wed 63 63 SW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Wed 65 65 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Wed 66 66 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Wed 65 65 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Wed 65 65 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Wed 62 62 SW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Wed 58 58 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Wed 57 57 SW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Wed 56 56 S 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Wed 55 55 S 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Wed 55 55 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Wed 54 54 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Thu 54 54 S 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Thu 54 54 S 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Thu 53 53 S 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Thu 53 53 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Thu 54 54 S 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Thu 54 54 S 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 54 54 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 53 53 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 55 55 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 57 57 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 58 58 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 58 58 S 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 60 60 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 60 60 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 61 61 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 60 60 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 60 60 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 57 57 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 55 55 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 54 54 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 53 53 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 52 52 W 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 51 51 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 51 51 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 51 51 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 51 51 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 50 50 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 50 50 W 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 51 51 SW 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 51 51 SW 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 51 51 SE 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 50 50 E 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 53 53 E 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 56 56 SE 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 57 58 S 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 58 60 SW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 60 62 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 61 63 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 62 63 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 61 61 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 61 61 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 58 58 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 54 54 NW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 53 53 NE 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 52 52 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 51 51 N 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 51 51 SW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 50 50 SW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 50 50 N 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 50 50 N 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 49 49 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 49 49 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 50 50 NE 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 50 50 NE 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 51 51 NE 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 50 50 SE 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 54 54 SE 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 59 60 SE 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 62 64 E 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 63 65 E 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 66 69 E 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 69 71 E 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 70 71 E 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 70 71 E 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 68 68 E 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 64 64 E 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 60 60 E 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 58 58 E 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 57 57 E 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 56 56 E 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 55 55 E 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 55 55 E 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 54 54 E 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 54 54 E 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 53 53 E 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 53 53 E 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 54 54 E 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 54 54 E 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 55 55 E 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 54 54 E 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 58 58 E 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 62 63 E 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 64 65 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 66 68 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 68 70 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 71 73 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 72 73 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 72 72 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 70 70 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 64 64 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 59 59 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 57 57 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 55 55 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 54 54 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 53 53 SE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 52 52 SE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 52 52 SE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 52 52 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 50 50 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 50 50 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 51 51 E 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 51 51 E 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 52 52 E 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 51 51 E 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 54 54 E 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 58 59 E 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 60 62 E 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 61 63 E 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 63 66 E 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 65 67 E 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 66 67 E 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 66 67 E 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 64 64 E 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 60 60 E 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 56 56 E 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 54 54 NE 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 52 52 NE 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 51 51 NE 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 50 50 E 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 50 50 E 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 49 49 E 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 49 49 NE 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 48 48 NE 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 48 48 NE 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst