SoaringPredictor for Blossom Valley

Detailed Predictions for: Blossom Valley
Launch Altitude (f): 1500
LZ Altitude (f): 700

Sounding
Station:	KNKX
Date/Time:	4 FEB 2012
Temp/Wind data from:	NOAA Digital Forecast

Time (Local)	High Temp	Puddle Temp	Wind (mph)	Thermal Ceiling (ft)	Soaring Ceiling (ft)	Above Launch (ft)	Thermal Type	Thermal Index (F)
4 AM Sat	46	46	E 16	745	1500	0	Blue	0
5 AM Sat	47	47	E 16	745	1500	0	Blue	0
6 AM Sat	46	46	E 16	745	1500	0	Blue	0
7 AM Sat	47	47	E 15	745	1500	0	Blue	0
8 AM Sat	50	50	E 15	745	1500	0	Blue	0
9 AM Sat	57	58	E 15	988	1500	0	Blue	0
10 AM Sat	61	63	E 7	1702	1500	0	Blue	0
11 AM Sat	63	65	E 7	2050	1557	57	Blue	0
12 Noon Sat	66	69	E 7	7105	3009	1509	Blue	4
1 PM Sat	70	72	NE 2	7405	6966	5466	Blue	7
2 PM Sat	70	72	NE 2	7405	6966	5466	Blue	7
3 PM Sat	71	72	NE 2	7405	6966	5466	Blue	7
4 PM Sat	69	69	E 6	7105	3009	1509	Blue	4
5 PM Sat	65	65	E 6	2050	1557	57	Blue	0
6 PM Sat	59	59	E 6	1131	1500	0	Blue	0
7 PM Sat	56	56	E 10	745	1500	0	Blue	0
8 PM Sat	55	55	E 10	745	1500	0	Blue	0
9 PM Sat	54	54	E 10	745	1500	0	Blue	0
10 PM Sat	53	53	E 13	745	1500	0	Blue	0
11 PM Sat	53	53	E 13	745	1500	0	Blue	0
12 Midnight Sun	52	52	E 13	745	1500	0	Blue	0
1 AM Sun	51	51	E 13	745	1500	0	Blue	0
2 AM Sun	52	52	E 13	745	1500	0	Blue	0
3 AM Sun	52	52	E 13	745	1500	0	Blue	0
4 AM Sun	50	50	E 13	745	1500	0	Blue	0
5 AM Sun	51	51	E 13	745	1500	0	Blue	0
6 AM Sun	50	50	E 13	745	1500	0	Blue	0
7 AM Sun	50	50	E 13	745	1500	0	Blue	0
8 AM Sun	54	54	E 13	745	1500	0	Blue	0
9 AM Sun	59	60	E 13	1274	1500	0	Blue	0
10 AM Sun	63	65	W 3	2050	1557	57	Blue	0
11 AM Sun	65	67	W 3	5341	1841	341	Blue	2
12 Noon Sun	67	70	W 3	7211	4873	3373	Blue	5
1 PM Sun	70	72	W 6	7405	6966	5466	Blue	7
2 PM Sun	70	72	W 6	7405	6966	5466	Blue	7
3 PM Sun	71	72	W 6	7405	6966	5466	Blue	7
4 PM Sun	68	68	W 7	6395	2026	526	Blue	3
5 PM Sun	64	64	W 7	1845	1500	0	Blue	0
6 PM Sun	57	57	W 7	845	1500	0	Blue	0
7 PM Sun	54	54	E 7	745	1500	0	Blue	0
8 PM Sun	52	52	E 7	745	1500	0	Blue	0
9 PM Sun	51	51	E 7	745	1500	0	Blue	0
10 PM Sun	50	50	E 7	745	1500	0	Blue	0
11 PM Sun	50	50	E 7	745	1500	0	Blue	0
12 Midnight Mon	49	49	E 7	745	1500	0	Blue	0
1 AM Mon	47	47	E 9	745	1500	0	Blue	0
2 AM Mon	48	48	E 9	745	1500	0	Blue	0
3 AM Mon	48	48	E 9	745	1500	0	Blue	0
4 AM Mon	46	46	E 12	745	1500	0	Blue	0
5 AM Mon	47	47	E 12	745	1500	0	Blue	0
6 AM Mon	46	46	E 12	745	1500	0	Blue	0
7 AM Mon	47	47	E 12	745	1500	0	Blue	0
8 AM Mon	50	50	E 12	745	1500	0	Blue	0
9 AM Mon	56	57	E 12	845	1500	0	Blue	0
10 AM Mon	60	61	W 9	1417	1500	0	Blue	0
11 AM Mon	62	64	W 9	1845	1500	0	Blue	0
12 Noon Mon	65	67	W 9	5341	1841	341	Blue	2
1 PM Mon	68	70	W 9	7211	4873	3373	Blue	5
2 PM Mon	68	69	W 9	7105	3009	1509	Blue	4
3 PM Mon	69	70	W 9	7211	4873	3373	Blue	5
4 PM Mon	67	67	W 8	5341	1841	341	Blue	2
5 PM Mon	63	63	W 8	1702	1500	0	Blue	0
6 PM Mon	57	57	W 8	845	1500	0	Blue	0
7 PM Mon	54	54	W 8	745	1500	0	Blue	0
8 PM Mon	53	53	W 8	745	1500	0	Blue	0
9 PM Mon	52	52	W 8	745	1500	0	Blue	0
10 PM Mon	51	51	E 5	745	1500	0	Blue	0
11 PM Mon	51	51	E 5	745	1500	0	Blue	0
12 Midnight Tue	50	50	E 5	745	1500	0	Blue	0
1 AM Tue	49	49	E 5	745	1500	0	Blue	0
2 AM Tue	50	50	E 5	745	1500	0	Blue	0
3 AM Tue	50	50	E 5	745	1500	0	Blue	0
4 AM Tue	48	48	E 7	745	1500	0	Blue	0
5 AM Tue	49	49	E 7	745	1500	0	Blue	0
6 AM Tue	48	48	E 7	745	1500	0	Blue	0
7 AM Tue	48	48	E 7	745	1500	0	Blue	0
8 AM Tue	50	50	E 7	745	1500	0	Blue	0
9 AM Tue	54	54	E 7	745	1500	0	Blue	0
10 AM Tue	56	57	E 6	845	1500	0	Blue	0
11 AM Tue	57	58	E 6	988	1500	0	Blue	0
12 Noon Tue	59	60	E 6	1274	1500	0	Blue	0
1 PM Tue	60	61	E 6	1417	1500	0	Blue	0
2 PM Tue	60	61	E 6	1417	1500	0	Blue	0
3 PM Tue	61	61	E 6	1417	1500	0	Blue	0
4 PM Tue	60	60	W 6	1274	1500	0	Blue	0
5 PM Tue	57	57	W 6	845	1500	0	Blue	0
6 PM Tue	54	54	W 6	745	1500	0	Blue	0
7 PM Tue	52	52	W 6	745	1500	0	Blue	0
8 PM Tue	51	51	W 6	745	1500	0	Blue	0
9 PM Tue	50	50	W 6	745	1500	0	Blue	0
10 PM Tue	50	50	NE 3	745	1500	0	Blue	0
11 PM Tue	50	50	NE 3	745	1500	0	Blue	0
12 Midnight Wed	50	50	NE 3	745	1500	0	Blue	0
1 AM Wed	49	49	NE 3	745	1500	0	Blue	0
2 AM Wed	49	49	NE 3	745	1500	0	Blue	0
3 AM Wed	49	49	NE 3	745	1500	0	Blue	0
4 AM Wed	48	48	N 7	745	1500	0	Blue	0
5 AM Wed	49	49	N 7	745	1500	0	Blue	0
6 AM Wed	48	48	N 7	745	1500	0	Blue	0
7 AM Wed	48	48	N 7	745	1500	0	Blue	0
8 AM Wed	51	51	N 7	745	1500	0	Blue	0
9 AM Wed	54	54	N 7	745	1500	0	Blue	0
10 AM Wed	56	56	N 9	745	1500	0	Blue	0
11 AM Wed	58	59	N 9	1131	1500	0	Blue	0
12 Noon Wed	59	60	N 9	1274	1500	0	Blue	0
1 PM Wed	61	62	N 9	1560	1500	0	Blue	0
2 PM Wed	61	61	N 9	1417	1500	0	Blue	0
3 PM Wed	62	62	N 9	1560	1500	0	Blue	0
4 PM Wed	61	61	N 13	1417	1500	0	Blue	0
5 PM Wed	59	59	N 13	1131	1500	0	Blue	0
6 PM Wed	55	55	N 13	745	1500	0	Blue	0
7 PM Wed	54	54	N 13	745	1500	0	Blue	0
8 PM Wed	53	53	N 13	745	1500	0	Blue	0
9 PM Wed	52	52	N 13	745	1500	0	Blue	0
10 PM Wed	52	52	E 13	745	1500	0	Blue	0
11 PM Wed	52	52	E 13	745	1500	0	Blue	0
12 Midnight Thu	51	51	E 13	745	1500	0	Blue	0
1 AM Thu	51	51	E 13	745	1500	0	Blue	0
2 AM Thu	51	51	E 13	745	1500	0	Blue	0
3 AM Thu	51	51	E 13	745	1500	0	Blue	0
4 AM Thu	50	50	E 13	745	1500	0	Blue	0
5 AM Thu	51	51	E 13	745	1500	0	Blue	0
6 AM Thu	50	50	E 13	745	1500	0	Blue	0
7 AM Thu	51	51	E 13	745	1500	0	Blue	0
8 AM Thu	54	54	E 13	745	1500	0	Blue	0
9 AM Thu	59	60	E 13	1274	1500	0	Blue	0
10 AM Thu	63	65	NE 14	2050	1557	57	Blue	0
11 AM Thu	65	67	NE 14	5341	1841	341	Blue	2
12 Noon Thu	68	71	NE 14	7308	6266	4766	Blue	6
1 PM Thu	71	73	NE 14	7502	7191	5691	Blue	8
2 PM Thu	71	73	NE 14	7502	7191	5691	Blue	8
3 PM Thu	72	73	NE 14	7502	7191	5691	Blue	8
4 PM Thu	70	70	NW 12	7211	4873	3373	Blue	5
5 PM Thu	67	67	NW 12	5341	1841	341	Blue	2
6 PM Thu	62	62	NW 12	1560	1500	0	Blue	0
7 PM Thu	59	59	NW 12	1131	1500	0	Blue	0
8 PM Thu	59	59	NW 12	1131	1500	0	Blue	0
9 PM Thu	57	57	NW 12	845	1500	0	Blue	0
10 PM Thu	57	57	E 13	845	1500	0	Blue	0
11 PM Thu	57	57	E 13	845	1500	0	Blue	0
12 Midnight Fri	56	56	E 13	745	1500	0	Blue	0
1 AM Fri	55	55	E 13	745	1500	0	Blue	0
2 AM Fri	56	56	E 13	745	1500	0	Blue	0
3 AM Fri	55	55	E 13	745	1500	0	Blue	0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only. No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates. These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying. Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released. If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid. Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST). If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level. We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes. Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate. Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink. It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website. Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature.

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun. When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air. The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals. A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable. Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates.

Author: Tad Hurst