SoaringPredictor for Blossom Valley

Detailed Predictions for: Blossom Valley
Launch Altitude (f): 1500
LZ Altitude (f): 700

Sounding
Station:	KNKX
Date/Time:	3 SEP 2010
Temp/Wind data from:	NOAA Digital Forecast

Time (Local)	High Temp	Puddle Temp	Wind (mph)	Thermal Ceiling (ft)	Soaring Ceiling (ft)	Above Launch (ft)	Thermal Type	Thermal Index (F)
5 AM Fri	70	70	NE 5	1323	1500	0	Blue	8
6 AM Fri	71	71	NE 5	1338	1500	0	Blue	9
7 AM Fri	73	73	NE 5	1368	1500	0	Blue	11
8 AM Fri	77	77	N 2	1428	1500	0	Blue	15
9 AM Fri	83	85	N 2	1919	1666	166	Blue	23
10 AM Fri	89	93	N 2	2548	2217	717	Blue	31
11 AM Fri	94	100	W 8	4312	3683	2183	Blue	38
12 Noon Fri	93	100	W 8	4312	3683	2183	Blue	38
1 PM Fri	94	101	W 8	4740	3777	2277	Blue	39
2 PM Fri	92	99	W 12	3880	3441	1941	Blue	37
3 PM Fri	92	97	W 12	3691	2827	1327	Blue	35
4 PM Fri	91	94	W 12	2845	2271	771	Blue	32
5 PM Fri	88	90	W 10	2219	2056	556	Blue	28
6 PM Fri	83	83	W 10	1751	1500	0	Blue	21
7 PM Fri	77	77	W 10	1428	1500	0	Blue	15
8 PM Fri	72	72	N 1	1353	1500	0	Blue	10
9 PM Fri	70	70	N 1	1323	1500	0	Blue	8
10 PM Fri	70	70	N 1	1323	1500	0	Blue	8
11 PM Fri	70	70	NE 2	1323	1500	0	Blue	8
12 Midnight Sat	69	69	NE 2	1304	1500	0	Blue	7
1 AM Sat	69	69	NE 2	1304	1500	0	Blue	7
2 AM Sat	68	68	NE 3	1284	1500	0	Blue	6
3 AM Sat	67	67	NE 3	1263	1500	0	Blue	5
4 AM Sat	66	66	NE 3	1225	1500	0	Blue	4
5 AM Sat	66	66	NE 2	1225	1500	0	Blue	4
6 AM Sat	68	68	NE 2	1284	1500	0	Blue	6
7 AM Sat	71	71	NE 2	1338	1500	0	Blue	9
8 AM Sat	76	76	NE 2	1413	1500	0	Blue	14
9 AM Sat	83	85	NE 2	1919	1666	166	Blue	23
10 AM Sat	90	94	NE 2	2845	2271	771	Blue	32
11 AM Sat	96	102	NW 8	5160	3872	2372	Blue	40
12 Noon Sat	98	105	NW 8	6633	5107	3607	Blue	43
1 PM Sat	98	105	NW 8	6633	5107	3607	Blue	43
2 PM Sat	96	103	W 15	5570	4267	2767	Blue	41
3 PM Sat	95	100	W 15	4312	3683	2183	Blue	38
4 PM Sat	94	97	W 15	3691	2827	1327	Blue	35
5 PM Sat	90	92	W 13	2362	2163	663	Blue	30
6 PM Sat	84	84	W 13	1835	1582	82	Blue	22
7 PM Sat	77	77	W 13	1428	1500	0	Blue	15
8 PM Sat	71	71	W 5	1338	1500	0	Blue	9
9 PM Sat	69	69	W 5	1304	1500	0	Blue	7
10 PM Sat	69	69	W 5	1304	1500	0	Blue	7
11 PM Sat	70	70	SW 1	1323	1500	0	Blue	8
12 Midnight Sun	69	69	SW 1	1304	1500	0	Blue	7
1 AM Sun	68	68	SW 1	1284	1500	0	Blue	6
2 AM Sun	67	67	SW 1	1263	1500	0	Blue	5
3 AM Sun	67	67	SW 1	1263	1500	0	Blue	5
4 AM Sun	66	66	SW 1	1225	1500	0	Blue	4
5 AM Sun	66	66	S 1	1225	1500	0	Blue	4
6 AM Sun	68	68	S 1	1284	1500	0	Blue	6
7 AM Sun	70	70	S 1	1323	1500	0	Blue	8
8 AM Sun	73	73	S 1	1368	1500	0	Blue	11
9 AM Sun	79	81	S 1	1584	1500	0	Blue	19
10 AM Sun	84	88	S 1	2111	1917	417	Blue	26
11 AM Sun	87	93	W 10	2548	2217	717	Blue	31
12 Noon Sun	87	94	W 10	2845	2271	771	Blue	32
1 PM Sun	87	94	W 10	2845	2271	771	Blue	32
2 PM Sun	86	93	W 10	2548	2217	717	Blue	31
3 PM Sun	85	90	W 10	2219	2056	556	Blue	28
4 PM Sun	83	86	W 10	2003	1749	249	Blue	24
5 PM Sun	80	82	W 12	1667	1500	0	Blue	20
6 PM Sun	80	80	W 12	1500	1500	0	Blue	18
7 PM Sun	74	74	W 12	1383	1500	0	Blue	12
8 PM Sun	67	67	W 12	1263	1500	0	Blue	5
9 PM Sun	63	63	W 12	1087	1500	0	Blue	1
10 PM Sun	61	61	W 12	997	1500	0	Blue	0
11 PM Sun	62	62	S 2	1041	1500	0	Blue	0
12 Midnight Mon	61	61	S 2	997	1500	0	Blue	0
1 AM Mon	59	59	S 2	907	1500	0	Blue	0
2 AM Mon	59	59	S 2	907	1500	0	Blue	0
3 AM Mon	58	58	S 2	886	1500	0	Blue	0
4 AM Mon	59	59	S 2	907	1500	0	Blue	0
5 AM Mon	57	57	SE 2	886	1500	0	Blue	0
6 AM Mon	57	57	SE 2	886	1500	0	Blue	0
7 AM Mon	58	58	SE 2	886	1500	0	Blue	0
8 AM Mon	62	62	SE 2	1041	1500	0	Blue	0
9 AM Mon	66	67	SE 2	1263	1500	0	Blue	5
10 AM Mon	70	73	SE 2	1368	1500	0	Blue	11
11 AM Mon	74	80	W 12	1500	1500	0	Blue	18
12 Noon Mon	79	86	W 12	2003	1749	249	Blue	24
1 PM Mon	81	88	W 12	2111	1917	417	Blue	26
2 PM Mon	81	88	W 12	2111	1917	417	Blue	26
3 PM Mon	82	87	W 12	2057	1833	333	Blue	25
4 PM Mon	81	84	W 12	1835	1582	82	Blue	22
5 PM Mon	80	82	W 10	1667	1500	0	Blue	20
6 PM Mon	75	75	W 10	1398	1500	0	Blue	13
7 PM Mon	69	69	W 10	1304	1500	0	Blue	7
8 PM Mon	63	63	W 10	1087	1500	0	Blue	1
9 PM Mon	59	59	W 10	907	1500	0	Blue	0
10 PM Mon	57	57	W 10	886	1500	0	Blue	0
11 PM Mon	58	58	SE 3	886	1500	0	Blue	0
12 Midnight Tue	56	56	SE 3	886	1500	0	Blue	0
1 AM Tue	55	55	SE 3	886	1500	0	Blue	0
2 AM Tue	55	55	SE 3	886	1500	0	Blue	0
3 AM Tue	54	54	SE 3	886	1500	0	Blue	0
4 AM Tue	55	55	SE 3	886	1500	0	Blue	0
5 AM Tue	53	53	E 2	886	1500	0	Blue	0
6 AM Tue	53	53	E 2	886	1500	0	Blue	0
7 AM Tue	54	54	E 2	886	1500	0	Blue	0
8 AM Tue	58	58	E 2	886	1500	0	Blue	0
9 AM Tue	62	62	E 2	1041	1500	0	Blue	0
10 AM Tue	66	66	E 2	1225	1500	0	Blue	4
11 AM Tue	70	76	W 9	1413	1500	0	Blue	14
12 Noon Tue	75	82	W 9	1667	1500	0	Blue	20
1 PM Tue	77	84	W 9	1835	1582	82	Blue	22
2 PM Tue	77	84	W 9	1835	1582	82	Blue	22
3 PM Tue	78	83	W 9	1751	1500	0	Blue	21
4 PM Tue	77	80	W 9	1500	1500	0	Blue	18
5 PM Tue	76	78	SW 9	1448	1500	0	Blue	16
6 PM Tue	72	72	SW 9	1353	1500	0	Blue	10
7 PM Tue	68	68	SW 9	1284	1500	0	Blue	6
8 PM Tue	63	63	SW 9	1087	1500	0	Blue	1
9 PM Tue	60	60	SW 9	952	1500	0	Blue	0
10 PM Tue	58	58	SW 9	886	1500	0	Blue	0
11 PM Tue	59	59	SE 2	907	1500	0	Blue	0
12 Midnight Wed	58	58	SE 2	886	1500	0	Blue	0
1 AM Wed	57	57	SE 2	886	1500	0	Blue	0
2 AM Wed	57	57	SE 2	886	1500	0	Blue	0
3 AM Wed	56	56	SE 2	886	1500	0	Blue	0
4 AM Wed	57	57	SE 2	886	1500	0	Blue	0
5 AM Wed	55	55	E 2	886	1500	0	Blue	0
6 AM Wed	55	55	E 2	886	1500	0	Blue	0
7 AM Wed	56	56	E 2	886	1500	0	Blue	0
8 AM Wed	59	59	E 2	907	1500	0	Blue	0
9 AM Wed	62	62	E 2	1041	1500	0	Blue	0
10 AM Wed	65	65	E 2	1179	1500	0	Blue	3
11 AM Wed	68	74	W 9	1383	1500	0	Blue	12
12 Noon Wed	73	80	W 9	1500	1500	0	Blue	18
1 PM Wed	74	81	W 9	1584	1500	0	Blue	19
2 PM Wed	74	80	W 9	1500	1500	0	Blue	18
3 PM Wed	75	80	W 9	1500	1500	0	Blue	18
4 PM Wed	74	77	W 9	1428	1500	0	Blue	15
5 PM Wed	73	74	W 12	1383	1500	0	Blue	12
6 PM Wed	69	69	W 12	1304	1500	0	Blue	7
7 PM Wed	65	65	W 12	1179	1500	0	Blue	3
8 PM Wed	60	60	W 12	952	1500	0	Blue	0
9 PM Wed	57	57	W 12	886	1500	0	Blue	0
10 PM Wed	55	55	W 12	886	1500	0	Blue	0
11 PM Wed	56	56	S 1	886	1500	0	Blue	0
12 Midnight Thu	55	55	S 1	886	1500	0	Blue	0
1 AM Thu	54	54	S 1	886	1500	0	Blue	0
2 AM Thu	54	54	S 1	886	1500	0	Blue	0
3 AM Thu	53	53	S 1	886	1500	0	Blue	0
4 AM Thu	54	54	S 1	886	1500	0	Blue	0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only. No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates. These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying. Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released. If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid. Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST). If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level. We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes. Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate. Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink. It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website. Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature.

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun. When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air. The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals. A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable. Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates.

Author: Tad Hurst