Detailed Predictions for: Soboba
Launch Altitude (f): 2260
LZ Altitude (f): 1520
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

25 MAR 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Mon 48 43 E 6 1463 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 47 42 E 6 1463 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 48 43 E 6 1463 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 53 48 E 5 1463 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 59 55 SE 3 1755 2260 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 62 60 SE 2 2303 2260 0 Blue 3
11 AM Mon 67 67 SW 2 3206 2793 533 Blue 10
12 Noon Mon 70 71 SW 3 3859 3311 1051 Blue 14
1 PM Mon 73 74 SW 5 4780 3847 1587 Blue 17
2 PM Mon 74 74 SW 6 4780 3847 1587 Blue 17
3 PM Mon 74 73 SW 7 4571 3668 1408 Blue 16
4 PM Mon 74 71 SW 8 3859 3311 1051 Blue 14
5 PM Mon 75 71 SW 9 3859 3311 1051 Blue 14
6 PM Mon 71 66 W 8 3102 2678 418 Blue 9
7 PM Mon 66 61 SW 7 2429 2260 0 Blue 4
8 PM Mon 62 57 S 5 1978 2260 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 58 53 S 3 1532 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 56 51 S 2 1463 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 54 49 SE 1 1463 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 52 47 SE 1 1463 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 51 46 SE 1 1463 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 51 46 SE 1 1463 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 50 45 E 1 1463 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 49 44 E 1 1463 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 48 43 E 1 1463 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 47 42 E 1 1463 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 48 43 SE 1 1463 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 52 47 SE 2 1463 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 58 54 S 2 1644 2260 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 62 59 SW 3 2185 2260 0 Blue 2
11 AM Tue 66 64 SW 5 2799 2427 167 Blue 7
12 Noon Tue 70 68 W 6 3320 2971 711 Blue 11
1 PM Tue 72 70 W 7 3679 3201 941 Blue 13
2 PM Tue 73 71 W 8 3859 3311 1051 Blue 14
3 PM Tue 73 70 W 9 3679 3201 941 Blue 13
4 PM Tue 73 69 W 10 3500 3098 838 Blue 12
5 PM Tue 74 69 W 10 3500 3098 838 Blue 12
6 PM Tue 70 65 W 9 2978 2513 253 Blue 8
7 PM Tue 65 60 W 8 2303 2260 0 Blue 3
8 PM Tue 61 56 NW 6 1866 2260 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 57 52 W 3 1463 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 55 50 S 2 1463 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 53 48 SE 1 1463 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 51 46 SE 1 1463 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 50 45 SE 1 1463 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 50 45 SE 1 1463 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 49 44 SE 1 1463 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 48 43 SE 1 1463 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 48 43 SE 1 1463 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 46 41 SE 2 1463 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 47 42 SW 2 1463 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 50 45 SW 3 1463 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 54 49 SW 3 1463 2260 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 56 52 SW 3 1463 2260 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 59 56 SW 5 1866 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 62 60 W 7 2303 2260 0 Blue 3
1 PM Wed 64 62 W 9 2515 2260 0 Blue 5
2 PM Wed 64 62 W 12 2515 2260 0 Blue 5
3 PM Wed 65 62 W 14 2515 2260 0 Blue 5
4 PM Wed 64 60 W 15 2303 2260 0 Blue 3
5 PM Wed 65 60 W 15 2303 2260 0 Blue 3
6 PM Wed 62 57 W 14 1978 2260 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 58 53 W 12 1532 2260 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 56 51 W 10 1463 2260 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 53 48 W 9 1463 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 52 47 W 8 1463 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 50 45 W 7 1463 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 49 44 W 6 1463 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 48 43 SW 6 1463 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 48 43 SW 5 1463 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 47 42 S 5 1463 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 46 41 S 5 1463 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 46 41 SE 5 1463 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 45 40 SE 5 1463 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 46 41 SE 5 1463 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 49 44 SW 3 1463 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 54 49 SW 3 1463 2260 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 56 52 SW 3 1463 2260 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 60 59 SW 8 2185 2260 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Thu 63 63 SW 8 2684 2300 40 Blue 6
1 PM Thu 64 64 SW 8 2799 2427 167 Blue 7
2 PM Thu 65 65 W 12 2978 2513 253 Blue 8
3 PM Thu 66 65 W 12 2978 2513 253 Blue 8
4 PM Thu 66 63 W 12 2684 2300 40 Blue 6
5 PM Thu 66 62 W 13 2515 2260 0 Blue 5
6 PM Thu 63 58 W 13 2082 2260 0 Blue 1
7 PM Thu 59 54 W 13 1644 2260 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 56 51 NW 7 1463 2260 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 53 48 NW 7 1463 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 51 46 NW 7 1463 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 49 44 SE 5 1463 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 48 43 SE 5 1463 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 48 43 SE 5 1463 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 47 42 SE 6 1463 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 46 41 SE 6 1463 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 46 41 SE 6 1463 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 45 40 SE 7 1463 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 44 39 SE 7 1463 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 45 40 SE 7 1463 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 49 44 S 6 1463 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 55 51 S 6 1463 2260 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 58 56 S 6 1866 2260 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 62 61 S 6 2429 2260 0 Blue 4
12 Noon Fri 66 66 S 6 3102 2678 418 Blue 9
1 PM Fri 68 68 S 6 3320 2971 711 Blue 11
2 PM Fri 69 69 W 7 3500 3098 838 Blue 12
3 PM Fri 69 68 W 7 3320 2971 711 Blue 11
4 PM Fri 70 67 W 7 3206 2793 533 Blue 10
5 PM Fri 70 66 NW 13 3102 2678 418 Blue 9
6 PM Fri 66 61 NW 13 2429 2260 0 Blue 4
7 PM Fri 62 57 NW 13 1978 2260 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 58 53 S 9 1532 2260 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 55 50 S 9 1463 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 53 48 S 9 1463 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 51 46 E 7 1463 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 50 45 E 7 1463 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 49 44 E 7 1463 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 49 44 NE 8 1463 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 48 43 NE 8 1463 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 47 42 NE 8 1463 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 46 41 E 10 1463 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 45 40 E 10 1463 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 46 41 E 10 1463 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 50 45 E 12 1463 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 56 52 E 12 1463 2260 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 60 58 E 12 2082 2260 0 Blue 1
11 AM Sat 64 63 E 14 2684 2300 40 Blue 6
12 Noon Sat 68 68 E 14 3320 2971 711 Blue 11
1 PM Sat 70 70 E 14 3679 3201 941 Blue 13
2 PM Sat 71 71 NE 17 3859 3311 1051 Blue 14
3 PM Sat 71 70 NE 17 3679 3201 941 Blue 13
4 PM Sat 72 69 NE 17 3500 3098 838 Blue 12
5 PM Sat 72 68 NE 16 3320 2971 711 Blue 11
6 PM Sat 68 63 NE 16 2684 2300 40 Blue 6
7 PM Sat 63 58 NE 16 2082 2260 0 Blue 1
8 PM Sat 59 54 NE 13 1644 2260 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 55 50 NE 13 1463 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 53 48 NE 13 1463 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 51 46 NE 10 1463 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 49 44 NE 10 1463 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 48 43 NE 10 1463 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 48 43 NE 14 1463 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 47 42 NE 14 1463 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 46 41 NE 14 1463 2260 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst