Detailed Predictions for: Soboba
Launch Altitude (f): 3570
LZ Altitude (f): 1520
Sounding

Station:

 KNKX

Date/Time:

 3 SEP 2010

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
5 AM Fri 73 68 W 2 2572 3570 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 74 69 W 2 2572 3570 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 75 70 W 2 2572 3570 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 78 73 NE 1 2572 3570 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 82 79 NE 1 2572 3570 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 87 86 NE 1 4121 3606 36 Blue 3
11 AM Fri 92 93 NW 2 13103 5831 2261 Blue 10
12 Noon Fri 96 98 NW 2 13774 13475 9905 Blue 15
1 PM Fri 99 101 NW 2 14338 13743 10173 Blue 18
2 PM Fri 100 102 W 7 14542 13859 10289 Blue 19
3 PM Fri 101 101 W 7 14338 13743 10173 Blue 18
4 PM Fri 100 98 W 7 13774 13475 9905 Blue 15
5 PM Fri 98 95 W 14 13505 7498 3928 Blue 12
6 PM Fri 93 88 W 14 5011 3834 264 Blue 5
7 PM Fri 89 84 W 14 3738 3570 0 Blue 1
8 PM Fri 84 79 NW 6 2572 3570 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 82 77 NW 6 2572 3570 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 80 75 NW 6 2572 3570 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 79 74 SW 2 2572 3570 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 78 73 SW 2 2572 3570 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 77 72 SW 2 2572 3570 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 77 72 S 2 2572 3570 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 75 70 S 2 2572 3570 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 74 69 S 2 2572 3570 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 74 69 S 1 2572 3570 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 75 70 S 1 2572 3570 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 77 72 S 1 2572 3570 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 80 75 E 2 2572 3570 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 85 82 E 2 3289 3570 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 90 89 E 2 5440 4111 541 Blue 6
11 AM Sat 95 96 W 3 13594 11736 8166 Blue 13
12 Noon Sat 98 100 W 3 14134 13654 10084 Blue 17
1 PM Sat 100 102 W 3 14542 13859 10289 Blue 19
2 PM Sat 101 103 W 10 14745 14063 10493 Blue 20
3 PM Sat 100 100 W 10 14134 13654 10084 Blue 17
4 PM Sat 100 98 W 10 13774 13475 9905 Blue 15
5 PM Sat 97 94 W 15 13386 6425 2855 Blue 11
6 PM Sat 93 88 W 15 5011 3834 264 Blue 5
7 PM Sat 88 83 W 15 3608 3570 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 83 78 NW 8 2572 3570 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 80 75 NW 8 2572 3570 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 78 73 NW 8 2572 3570 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 76 71 W 2 2572 3570 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 75 70 W 2 2572 3570 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 74 69 W 2 2572 3570 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 73 68 W 1 2572 3570 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 71 66 W 1 2572 3570 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 70 65 W 1 2572 3570 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 69 64 S 2 2572 3570 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 70 65 S 2 2572 3570 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 72 67 S 2 2572 3570 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 75 70 S 2 2572 3570 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 78 75 S 2 2572 3570 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 82 81 S 2 2968 3570 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 85 86 SW 5 4121 3606 36 Blue 3
12 Noon Sun 88 90 SW 5 5862 4554 984 Blue 7
1 PM Sun 90 92 SW 5 8322 5414 1844 Blue 9
2 PM Sun 89 91 SW 5 6488 4990 1420 Blue 8
3 PM Sun 90 90 SW 5 5862 4554 984 Blue 7
4 PM Sun 88 86 SW 5 4121 3606 36 Blue 3
5 PM Sun 85 82 W 15 3289 3570 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 86 81 W 15 2968 3570 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 80 75 W 15 2572 3570 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 74 69 W 15 2572 3570 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 70 65 W 15 2572 3570 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 66 61 W 15 2572 3570 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 66 61 E 2 2572 3570 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 65 60 E 2 2572 3570 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 64 59 E 2 2572 3570 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 62 57 E 2 2572 3570 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 61 56 E 2 2572 3570 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 60 55 E 2 2572 3570 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 60 55 S 2 2572 3570 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 59 54 S 2 2572 3570 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 61 56 S 2 2572 3570 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 67 62 S 2 2572 3570 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 72 69 S 2 2572 3570 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 75 74 S 2 2572 3570 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 76 77 SW 9 2572 3570 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 79 81 SW 9 2968 3570 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 80 82 SW 9 3289 3570 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 82 84 SW 9 3738 3570 0 Blue 1
3 PM Mon 82 82 SW 9 3289 3570 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 83 81 SW 9 2968 3570 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 83 80 W 14 2644 3570 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 80 75 W 14 2572 3570 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 74 69 W 14 2572 3570 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 68 63 W 14 2572 3570 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 65 60 W 14 2572 3570 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 62 57 W 14 2572 3570 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 61 56 SW 3 2572 3570 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 60 55 SW 3 2572 3570 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 59 54 SW 3 2572 3570 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 57 52 SW 3 2572 3570 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 56 51 SW 3 2572 3570 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 56 51 SW 3 2572 3570 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 56 51 S 2 2572 3570 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 55 50 S 2 2572 3570 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 57 52 S 2 2572 3570 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 63 58 S 2 2572 3570 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 68 65 S 2 2572 3570 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 71 70 S 2 2572 3570 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 72 73 SW 8 2572 3570 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 75 77 SW 8 2572 3570 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 76 78 SW 8 2572 3570 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 78 80 SW 8 2644 3570 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 78 78 SW 8 2572 3570 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 79 77 SW 8 2572 3570 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 79 76 SW 13 2572 3570 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 76 71 SW 13 2572 3570 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 71 66 SW 13 2572 3570 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 66 61 SW 13 2572 3570 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 63 58 SW 13 2572 3570 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 60 55 SW 13 2572 3570 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 60 55 SW 2 2572 3570 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 59 54 SW 2 2572 3570 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 58 53 SW 2 2572 3570 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 56 51 SW 2 2572 3570 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 55 50 SW 2 2572 3570 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 55 50 SW 2 2572 3570 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 55 50 S 2 2572 3570 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 54 49 S 2 2572 3570 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 56 51 S 2 2572 3570 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 61 56 S 2 2572 3570 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 65 61 S 2 2572 3570 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 68 66 S 2 2572 3570 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 69 70 SW 8 2572 3570 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 71 73 SW 8 2572 3570 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 72 74 SW 8 2572 3570 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 74 76 SW 8 2572 3570 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 74 74 SW 8 2572 3570 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 75 73 SW 8 2572 3570 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 75 72 SW 14 2572 3570 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 72 67 SW 14 2572 3570 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 68 63 SW 14 2572 3570 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 63 58 SW 14 2572 3570 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 61 56 SW 14 2572 3570 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 58 53 SW 14 2572 3570 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 58 53 SW 2 2572 3570 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 57 52 SW 2 2572 3570 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 56 51 SW 2 2572 3570 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 55 50 SW 2 2572 3570 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 54 49 SW 2 2572 3570 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 54 49 SW 2 2572 3570 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst