Detailed Predictions for: Soboba
Launch Altitude (f): 2260
LZ Altitude (f): 1520
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

21 JAN 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Sun 35 30 SE 6 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 34 29 E 3 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 34 29 NE 2 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 36 31 NE 0 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 39 34 E 1 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 44 40 S 2 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 49 45 SW 3 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 52 49 SW 2 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 54 51 SW 2 3631 2260 0 Blue 1
1 PM Sun 56 53 SW 3 4247 2260 0 Blue 3
2 PM Sun 58 54 SW 3 5083 3612 1352 Blue 4
3 PM Sun 57 52 SW 2 3940 2260 0 Blue 2
4 PM Sun 57 52 SW 1 3940 2260 0 Blue 2
5 PM Sun 54 49 NW 1 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 49 44 NE 3 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 45 40 E 6 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 42 37 E 6 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 40 35 E 5 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 39 34 E 3 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 38 33 E 5 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 37 32 E 5 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 37 32 E 5 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 37 32 E 5 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 38 33 E 5 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 38 33 E 6 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 36 31 E 6 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 36 31 E 6 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 38 33 E 9 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 42 37 E 9 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 49 44 E 8 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 55 51 E 6 3631 2260 0 Blue 1
11 AM Mon 59 56 E 5 5612 4222 1962 Blue 6
12 Noon Mon 61 58 E 5 5864 5470 3210 Blue 8
1 PM Mon 63 60 E 7 6960 5721 3461 White 10
2 PM Mon 64 60 E 8 6960 5721 3461 White 10
3 PM Mon 63 58 NE 9 5864 5470 3210 Blue 8
4 PM Mon 62 57 NE 10 5738 5053 2793 Blue 7
5 PM Mon 59 54 NE 10 5083 3612 1352 Blue 4
6 PM Mon 55 50 NE 12 1900 2260 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 51 46 NE 10 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 49 44 E 9 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 48 43 E 9 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 47 42 E 7 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 45 40 E 7 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 43 38 E 8 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 41 36 E 7 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 40 35 E 6 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 40 35 E 7 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 40 35 E 8 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 42 37 E 10 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 44 39 E 10 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 47 42 E 15 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 52 47 E 15 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 58 54 E 17 5083 3612 1352 Blue 4
10 AM Tue 63 60 E 15 6960 5721 3461 White 10
11 AM Tue 66 63 E 13 7590 7126 4866 White 13
12 Noon Tue 68 66 E 12 8214 7840 5580 White 16
1 PM Tue 69 66 E 14 8214 7840 5580 White 16
2 PM Tue 69 66 E 15 8214 7840 5580 White 16
3 PM Tue 70 66 E 16 8214 7840 5580 White 16
4 PM Tue 68 63 E 20 7590 7126 4866 White 13
5 PM Tue 64 59 E 20 6749 5595 3335 White 9
6 PM Tue 58 53 E 18 4247 2260 0 Blue 3
7 PM Tue 54 49 NE 17 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 52 47 E 17 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 52 47 E 16 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 51 46 E 14 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 51 46 E 13 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 50 45 E 13 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 49 44 E 13 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 48 43 E 14 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 47 42 E 15 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 46 41 E 9 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 44 39 E 9 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 44 39 E 9 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 46 41 NE 10 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 51 46 NE 10 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 57 53 NE 10 4247 2260 0 Blue 3
10 AM Wed 63 60 NE 10 6960 5721 3461 White 10
11 AM Wed 67 64 NE 10 7798 7433 5173 White 14
12 Noon Wed 69 66 NE 10 8214 7840 5580 White 16
1 PM Wed 70 67 NE 8 8423 8042 5782 White 17
2 PM Wed 72 68 NE 8 8632 8183 5923 White 18
3 PM Wed 72 68 NE 8 8632 8183 5923 White 18
4 PM Wed 70 65 NE 6 8006 7637 5377 White 15
5 PM Wed 66 61 NE 6 7172 5847 3587 White 11
6 PM Wed 61 56 NE 6 5612 4222 1962 Blue 6
7 PM Wed 57 52 E 5 3940 2260 0 Blue 2
8 PM Wed 54 49 E 5 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 53 48 E 5 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 53 48 SE 5 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 52 47 SE 5 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 50 45 SE 5 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 49 44 SE 5 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 48 43 SE 5 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 48 43 SE 5 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 47 42 SE 5 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 45 40 SE 5 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 43 38 SE 5 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 43 38 S 6 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 46 41 S 6 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 52 47 S 6 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 56 52 SW 8 3940 2260 0 Blue 2
11 AM Thu 58 54 SW 8 5083 3612 1352 Blue 4
12 Noon Thu 57 53 SW 8 4247 2260 0 Blue 3
1 PM Thu 57 53 W 12 4247 2260 0 Blue 3
2 PM Thu 58 54 W 12 5083 3612 1352 Blue 4
3 PM Thu 58 53 W 12 4247 2260 0 Blue 3
4 PM Thu 57 52 W 14 3940 2260 0 Blue 2
5 PM Thu 53 48 W 14 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 49 44 W 14 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 44 39 SW 12 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 42 37 SW 12 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 40 35 SW 12 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 40 35 SE 8 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 39 34 SE 8 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 39 34 SE 8 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 39 34 SE 7 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 39 34 SE 7 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 39 34 SE 7 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 39 34 SE 6 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 38 33 SE 6 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 38 33 SE 6 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 39 34 SW 6 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 43 38 SW 6 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 48 44 SW 6 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 52 48 W 6 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 56 53 W 6 4247 2260 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Fri 58 55 W 6 5485 3918 1658 Blue 5
1 PM Fri 60 57 SW 5 5738 5053 2793 Blue 7
2 PM Fri 61 57 SW 5 5738 5053 2793 Blue 7
3 PM Fri 62 57 SW 5 5738 5053 2793 Blue 7
4 PM Fri 62 57 S 3 5738 5053 2793 Blue 7
5 PM Fri 60 55 S 3 5485 3918 1658 Blue 5
6 PM Fri 56 51 S 3 3631 2260 0 Blue 1
7 PM Fri 53 48 SE 5 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 50 45 SE 5 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 47 42 SE 5 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 45 40 E 8 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 44 39 E 8 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 44 39 E 8 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 46 41 E 12 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 49 44 E 12 1581 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 52 47 E 12 1581 2260 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst