Detailed Predictions for: Soboba
Launch Altitude (f): 2260
LZ Altitude (f): 1520
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

21 JUL 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 64 59 NE 1 1745 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 63 58 N 1 1362 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 68 63 N 1 2111 2260 0 Blue 3
8 AM Sun 74 70 W 2 2264 2260 0 Blue 10
9 AM Sun 77 75 W 2 2550 2366 106 Blue 15
10 AM Sun 81 81 W 3 3433 2838 578 Blue 21
11 AM Sun 86 87 W 5 4363 3961 1701 Blue 27
12 Noon Sun 90 93 W 6 5146 4743 2483 Blue 33
1 PM Sun 92 95 W 6 5406 5003 2743 Blue 35
2 PM Sun 95 97 SW 7 5668 5262 3002 Blue 37
3 PM Sun 95 96 SW 8 5536 5133 2873 Blue 36
4 PM Sun 96 95 SW 8 5406 5003 2743 Blue 35
5 PM Sun 94 91 SW 9 4886 4483 2223 Blue 31
6 PM Sun 91 87 SW 8 4363 3961 1701 Blue 27
7 PM Sun 88 83 SW 8 3840 3160 900 Blue 23
8 PM Sun 84 79 SW 5 2905 2683 423 Blue 19
9 PM Sun 79 74 SW 3 2477 2314 54 Blue 14
10 PM Sun 76 71 S 1 2315 2260 0 Blue 11
11 PM Sun 74 69 SW 1 2234 2260 0 Blue 9
12 Midnight Mon 72 67 SW 1 2194 2260 0 Blue 7
1 AM Mon 70 65 S 1 2154 2260 0 Blue 5
2 AM Mon 69 64 N 1 2133 2260 0 Blue 4
3 AM Mon 68 63 N 1 2111 2260 0 Blue 3
4 AM Mon 67 62 N 1 2089 2260 0 Blue 2
5 AM Mon 66 61 SE 1 2066 2260 0 Blue 1
6 AM Mon 65 60 SE 1 2024 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 70 65 S 1 2154 2260 0 Blue 5
8 AM Mon 75 71 SW 1 2315 2260 0 Blue 11
9 AM Mon 79 76 SW 2 2689 2418 158 Blue 16
10 AM Mon 83 81 SW 3 3433 2838 578 Blue 21
11 AM Mon 87 86 SW 5 4232 3831 1571 Blue 26
12 Noon Mon 91 91 SW 6 4886 4483 2223 Blue 31
1 PM Mon 94 94 SW 7 5276 4874 2614 Blue 34
2 PM Mon 96 96 SW 8 5536 5133 2873 Blue 36
3 PM Mon 96 95 SW 9 5406 5003 2743 Blue 35
4 PM Mon 97 95 SW 9 5406 5003 2743 Blue 35
5 PM Mon 96 92 SW 9 5017 4613 2353 Blue 32
6 PM Mon 93 88 SW 8 4494 4092 1832 Blue 28
7 PM Mon 90 85 SW 7 4101 3678 1418 Blue 25
8 PM Mon 86 81 SW 6 3433 2838 578 Blue 21
9 PM Mon 81 76 SW 3 2689 2418 158 Blue 16
10 PM Mon 79 74 SW 2 2477 2314 54 Blue 14
11 PM Mon 76 71 SW 1 2315 2260 0 Blue 11
12 Midnight Tue 75 70 W 0 2264 2260 0 Blue 10
1 AM Tue 73 68 NW 1 2214 2260 0 Blue 8
2 AM Tue 72 67 NW 1 2194 2260 0 Blue 7
3 AM Tue 71 66 N 1 2174 2260 0 Blue 6
4 AM Tue 70 65 NE 2 2154 2260 0 Blue 5
5 AM Tue 69 64 E 2 2133 2260 0 Blue 4
6 AM Tue 68 63 E 2 2111 2260 0 Blue 3
7 AM Tue 73 68 S 2 2214 2260 0 Blue 8
8 AM Tue 77 72 SW 2 2367 2260 0 Blue 12
9 AM Tue 80 77 SW 2 2775 2475 215 Blue 17
10 AM Tue 84 82 W 3 3694 2902 642 Blue 22
11 AM Tue 87 85 W 3 4101 3678 1418 Blue 25
12 Noon Tue 90 89 W 5 4625 4222 1962 Blue 29
1 PM Tue 93 92 W 6 5017 4613 2353 Blue 32
2 PM Tue 95 94 W 7 5276 4874 2614 Blue 34
3 PM Tue 95 93 W 7 5146 4743 2483 Blue 33
4 PM Tue 96 93 SW 7 5146 4743 2483 Blue 33
5 PM Tue 95 91 SW 7 4886 4483 2223 Blue 31
6 PM Tue 92 87 SW 7 4363 3961 1701 Blue 27
7 PM Tue 89 84 W 6 3970 3419 1159 Blue 24
8 PM Tue 86 81 W 5 3433 2838 578 Blue 21
9 PM Tue 82 77 W 3 2775 2475 215 Blue 17
10 PM Tue 80 75 SW 2 2550 2366 106 Blue 15
11 PM Tue 78 73 S 1 2419 2263 3 Blue 13
12 Midnight Wed 76 71 S 1 2315 2260 0 Blue 11
1 AM Wed 74 69 E 1 2234 2260 0 Blue 9
2 AM Wed 74 69 E 1 2234 2260 0 Blue 9
3 AM Wed 73 68 E 2 2214 2260 0 Blue 8
4 AM Wed 72 67 E 3 2194 2260 0 Blue 7
5 AM Wed 71 66 E 3 2174 2260 0 Blue 6
6 AM Wed 70 65 E 3 2154 2260 0 Blue 5
7 AM Wed 74 69 E 3 2234 2260 0 Blue 9
8 AM Wed 78 74 NE 6 2477 2314 54 Blue 14
9 AM Wed 81 78 NE 6 2840 2549 289 Blue 18
10 AM Wed 84 82 NE 6 3694 2902 642 Blue 22
11 AM Wed 88 87 SW 5 4363 3961 1701 Blue 27
12 Noon Wed 91 90 SW 5 4756 4352 2092 Blue 30
1 PM Wed 93 93 SW 5 5146 4743 2483 Blue 33
2 PM Wed 95 94 S 8 5276 4874 2614 Blue 34
3 PM Wed 95 93 S 8 5146 4743 2483 Blue 33
4 PM Wed 96 93 S 8 5146 4743 2483 Blue 33
5 PM Wed 95 91 SW 8 4886 4483 2223 Blue 31
6 PM Wed 92 87 SW 8 4363 3961 1701 Blue 27
7 PM Wed 89 84 SW 8 3970 3419 1159 Blue 24
8 PM Wed 86 81 S 6 3433 2838 578 Blue 21
9 PM Wed 81 76 S 6 2689 2418 158 Blue 16
10 PM Wed 79 74 S 6 2477 2314 54 Blue 14
11 PM Wed 77 72 S 1 2367 2260 0 Blue 12
12 Midnight Thu 75 70 S 1 2264 2260 0 Blue 10
1 AM Thu 74 69 S 1 2234 2260 0 Blue 9
2 AM Thu 73 68 NW 1 2214 2260 0 Blue 8
3 AM Thu 72 67 NW 1 2194 2260 0 Blue 7
4 AM Thu 71 66 NW 1 2174 2260 0 Blue 6
5 AM Thu 70 65 NE 1 2154 2260 0 Blue 5
6 AM Thu 69 64 NE 1 2133 2260 0 Blue 4
7 AM Thu 74 69 NE 1 2234 2260 0 Blue 9
8 AM Thu 78 74 SW 2 2477 2314 54 Blue 14
9 AM Thu 82 79 SW 2 2905 2683 423 Blue 19
10 AM Thu 85 83 SW 2 3840 3160 900 Blue 23
11 AM Thu 89 89 W 5 4625 4222 1962 Blue 29
12 Noon Thu 92 94 W 5 5276 4874 2614 Blue 34
1 PM Thu 95 97 W 5 5668 5262 3002 Blue 37
2 PM Thu 97 98 W 8 5935 5391 3131 Blue 38
3 PM Thu 97 97 W 8 5668 5262 3002 Blue 37
4 PM Thu 98 97 W 8 5668 5262 3002 Blue 37
5 PM Thu 96 93 SW 10 5146 4743 2483 Blue 33
6 PM Thu 94 90 SW 10 4756 4352 2092 Blue 30
7 PM Thu 90 85 SW 10 4101 3678 1418 Blue 25
8 PM Thu 86 81 S 7 3433 2838 578 Blue 21
9 PM Thu 82 77 S 7 2775 2475 215 Blue 17
10 PM Thu 79 74 S 7 2477 2314 54 Blue 14
11 PM Thu 77 72 SW 2 2367 2260 0 Blue 12
12 Midnight Fri 75 70 SW 2 2264 2260 0 Blue 10
1 AM Fri 73 68 SW 2 2214 2260 0 Blue 8
2 AM Fri 72 67 W 2 2194 2260 0 Blue 7
3 AM Fri 71 66 W 2 2174 2260 0 Blue 6
4 AM Fri 70 65 W 2 2154 2260 0 Blue 5
5 AM Fri 69 64 NW 1 2133 2260 0 Blue 4
6 AM Fri 68 63 NW 1 2111 2260 0 Blue 3
7 AM Fri 73 68 NW 1 2214 2260 0 Blue 8
8 AM Fri 77 73 W 2 2419 2263 3 Blue 13
9 AM Fri 80 77 W 2 2775 2475 215 Blue 17
10 AM Fri 84 83 W 2 3840 3160 900 Blue 23
11 AM Fri 88 89 W 6 4625 4222 1962 Blue 29
12 Noon Fri 91 93 W 6 5146 4743 2483 Blue 33
1 PM Fri 94 97 W 6 5668 5262 3002 Blue 37
2 PM Fri 96 98 SW 9 5935 5391 3131 Blue 38
3 PM Fri 96 97 SW 9 5668 5262 3002 Blue 37
4 PM Fri 96 95 SW 9 5406 5003 2743 Blue 35
5 PM Fri 95 92 SW 10 5017 4613 2353 Blue 32
6 PM Fri 92 88 SW 10 4494 4092 1832 Blue 28
7 PM Fri 89 84 SW 10 3970 3419 1159 Blue 24
8 PM Fri 84 79 SW 7 2905 2683 423 Blue 19
9 PM Fri 80 75 SW 7 2550 2366 106 Blue 15
10 PM Fri 77 72 SW 7 2367 2260 0 Blue 12
11 PM Fri 74 69 S 2 2234 2260 0 Blue 9
12 Midnight Sat 72 67 S 2 2194 2260 0 Blue 7
1 AM Sat 70 65 S 2 2154 2260 0 Blue 5
2 AM Sat 69 64 SW 2 2133 2260 0 Blue 4
3 AM Sat 68 63 SW 2 2111 2260 0 Blue 3
4 AM Sat 67 62 SW 2 2089 2260 0 Blue 2

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst