Detailed Predictions for: Soboba
Launch Altitude (f): 2260
LZ Altitude (f): 1520
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

21 SEP 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Fri 62 57 E 2 1545 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 61 56 E 2 1545 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 62 57 E 2 1545 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 69 64 SE 1 1545 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 76 72 W 2 1920 2260 0 Blue 2
10 AM Fri 81 79 W 3 2439 2260 0 Blue 9
11 AM Fri 86 86 W 6 3675 3215 955 Blue 16
12 Noon Fri 90 91 W 6 5405 4078 1818 Blue 21
1 PM Fri 92 93 W 8 6457 4590 2330 Blue 23
2 PM Fri 94 94 SW 12 8673 4988 2728 Blue 24
3 PM Fri 94 93 SW 13 6457 4590 2330 Blue 23
4 PM Fri 95 92 SW 13 5648 4286 2026 Blue 22
5 PM Fri 93 89 W 10 4302 3663 1403 Blue 19
6 PM Fri 89 84 W 9 3347 3036 776 Blue 14
7 PM Fri 83 78 SW 7 2237 2260 0 Blue 8
8 PM Fri 78 73 S 2 1951 2260 0 Blue 3
9 PM Fri 75 70 S 1 1844 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 72 67 NW 1 1675 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 70 65 N 2 1561 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 69 64 N 2 1545 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 67 62 N 1 1545 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 66 61 N 1 1545 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 65 60 NE 1 1545 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 64 59 E 1 1545 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 64 59 E 1 1545 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 63 58 E 1 1545 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 64 59 E 2 1545 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 71 66 SE 1 1618 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 77 73 W 1 1951 2260 0 Blue 3
10 AM Sat 82 80 W 3 2957 2260 0 Blue 10
11 AM Sat 88 87 W 6 3885 3341 1081 Blue 17
12 Noon Sat 91 91 W 6 5405 4078 1818 Blue 21
1 PM Sat 94 95 SW 7 9096 5561 3301 Blue 25
2 PM Sat 96 96 W 7 9506 6344 4084 Blue 26
3 PM Sat 95 94 W 7 8673 4988 2728 Blue 24
4 PM Sat 96 93 W 9 6457 4590 2330 Blue 23
5 PM Sat 94 90 W 12 4626 3871 1611 Blue 20
6 PM Sat 90 85 W 13 3474 3118 858 Blue 15
7 PM Sat 84 79 W 8 2439 2260 0 Blue 9
8 PM Sat 79 74 W 5 1982 2260 0 Blue 4
9 PM Sat 75 70 SW 2 1844 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 72 67 S 1 1675 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 71 66 E 0 1618 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 69 64 E 1 1545 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 68 63 SE 1 1545 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 66 61 NE 1 1545 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 65 60 NE 1 1545 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 64 59 E 1 1545 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 64 59 E 1 1545 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 63 58 NE 1 1545 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 64 59 E 1 1545 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 70 65 W 1 1561 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 76 72 W 3 1920 2260 0 Blue 2
10 AM Sun 81 79 W 5 2439 2260 0 Blue 9
11 AM Sun 85 85 W 6 3474 3118 858 Blue 15
12 Noon Sun 88 89 SW 7 4302 3663 1403 Blue 19
1 PM Sun 91 92 SW 12 5648 4286 2026 Blue 22
2 PM Sun 92 92 SW 14 5648 4286 2026 Blue 22
3 PM Sun 92 91 SW 14 5405 4078 1818 Blue 21
4 PM Sun 93 90 SW 14 4626 3871 1611 Blue 20
5 PM Sun 91 87 SW 13 3885 3341 1081 Blue 17
6 PM Sun 86 81 SW 10 3039 2260 0 Blue 11
7 PM Sun 81 76 SW 7 2087 2260 0 Blue 6
8 PM Sun 75 70 S 5 1844 2260 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 72 67 S 3 1675 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 69 64 S 2 1545 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 67 62 S 1 1545 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 65 60 SE 1 1545 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 64 59 SE 1 1545 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 62 57 E 1 1545 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 61 56 E 1 1545 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 60 55 E 1 1545 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 60 55 E 2 1545 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 59 54 E 2 1545 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 60 55 E 2 1545 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 67 62 S 1 1545 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 73 69 S 1 1788 2260 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 78 76 S 1 2087 2260 0 Blue 6
11 AM Mon 84 84 W 6 3347 3036 776 Blue 14
12 Noon Mon 87 88 W 6 4094 3467 1207 Blue 18
1 PM Mon 90 91 W 6 5405 4078 1818 Blue 21
2 PM Mon 92 93 W 8 6457 4590 2330 Blue 23
3 PM Mon 92 91 W 8 5405 4078 1818 Blue 21
4 PM Mon 92 89 W 8 4302 3663 1403 Blue 19
5 PM Mon 90 86 SW 12 3675 3215 955 Blue 16
6 PM Mon 86 81 SW 12 3039 2260 0 Blue 11
7 PM Mon 80 75 SW 12 2014 2260 0 Blue 5
8 PM Mon 75 70 S 3 1844 2260 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 71 66 S 3 1618 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 68 63 S 3 1545 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 67 62 N 1 1545 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 65 60 N 1 1545 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 64 59 N 1 1545 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 62 57 NE 1 1545 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 61 56 NE 1 1545 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 60 55 NE 1 1545 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 60 55 E 5 1545 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 59 54 E 5 1545 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 60 55 E 5 1545 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 67 62 NE 8 1545 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 74 70 NE 8 1844 2260 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 79 77 NE 8 2168 2260 0 Blue 7
11 AM Tue 84 84 SE 2 3347 3036 776 Blue 14
12 Noon Tue 88 89 SE 2 4302 3663 1403 Blue 19
1 PM Tue 90 91 SE 2 5405 4078 1818 Blue 21
2 PM Tue 92 92 S 5 5648 4286 2026 Blue 22
3 PM Tue 93 92 S 5 5648 4286 2026 Blue 22
4 PM Tue 93 90 S 5 4626 3871 1611 Blue 20
5 PM Tue 91 87 SW 12 3885 3341 1081 Blue 17
6 PM Tue 87 82 SW 12 3122 2432 172 Blue 12
7 PM Tue 81 76 SW 12 2087 2260 0 Blue 6
8 PM Tue 76 71 S 2 1886 2260 0 Blue 1
9 PM Tue 73 68 S 2 1731 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 70 65 S 2 1561 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 68 63 N 2 1545 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 67 62 N 2 1545 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 65 60 N 2 1545 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 64 59 E 5 1545 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 63 58 E 5 1545 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 62 57 E 5 1545 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 62 57 E 7 1545 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 61 56 E 7 1545 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 62 57 E 7 1545 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 69 64 E 8 1545 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 76 72 E 8 1920 2260 0 Blue 2
10 AM Wed 81 79 E 8 2439 2260 0 Blue 9
11 AM Wed 86 85 NE 1 3474 3118 858 Blue 15
12 Noon Wed 90 91 NE 1 5405 4078 1818 Blue 21
1 PM Wed 92 93 NE 1 6457 4590 2330 Blue 23
2 PM Wed 94 94 SW 2 8673 4988 2728 Blue 24
3 PM Wed 95 94 SW 2 8673 4988 2728 Blue 24
4 PM Wed 95 92 SW 2 5648 4286 2026 Blue 22
5 PM Wed 93 89 S 13 4302 3663 1403 Blue 19
6 PM Wed 89 84 S 13 3347 3036 776 Blue 14
7 PM Wed 83 78 S 13 2237 2260 0 Blue 8
8 PM Wed 78 73 S 3 1951 2260 0 Blue 3
9 PM Wed 74 69 S 3 1788 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 72 67 S 3 1675 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 70 65 N 2 1561 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 68 63 N 2 1545 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 66 61 N 2 1545 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 65 60 NE 1 1545 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 64 59 NE 1 1545 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 63 58 NE 1 1545 2260 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst