Detailed Predictions for: Soboba
Launch Altitude (f): 2260
LZ Altitude (f): 1520
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

11 NOV 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Mon 54 49 NE 2 1703 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 55 50 NE 3 1703 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 56 51 E 3 1703 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 58 53 E 5 1721 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 62 57 E 2 1846 2260 0 Blue 2
9 AM Mon 66 62 SE 2 1919 2260 0 Blue 7
10 AM Mon 71 68 SW 3 2339 2260 0 Blue 13
11 AM Mon 75 73 W 3 2828 2479 219 Blue 18
12 Noon Mon 79 77 SW 5 3408 2945 685 Blue 22
1 PM Mon 81 78 SW 3 3915 3066 806 Blue 23
2 PM Mon 81 78 SW 3 3915 3066 806 Blue 23
3 PM Mon 81 77 SW 3 3408 2945 685 Blue 22
4 PM Mon 77 72 S 7 2741 2423 163 Blue 17
5 PM Mon 71 66 S 6 2082 2260 0 Blue 11
6 PM Mon 65 60 S 3 1890 2260 0 Blue 5
7 PM Mon 60 55 E 3 1816 2260 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 58 53 E 3 1721 2260 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 58 53 E 5 1721 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 58 53 E 6 1721 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 58 53 E 6 1721 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 58 53 E 6 1721 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 57 52 E 6 1703 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 57 52 E 7 1703 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 56 51 E 7 1703 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 56 51 E 7 1703 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 56 51 E 7 1703 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 57 52 E 8 1703 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 60 55 E 8 1816 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 65 60 E 6 1890 2260 0 Blue 5
9 AM Tue 71 67 E 5 2175 2260 0 Blue 12
10 AM Tue 76 73 E 3 2828 2479 219 Blue 18
11 AM Tue 80 78 E 3 3915 3066 806 Blue 23
12 Noon Tue 82 80 NE 5 5419 3399 1139 Blue 25
1 PM Tue 82 79 NE 6 4664 3220 960 Blue 24
2 PM Tue 83 80 NE 7 5419 3399 1139 Blue 25
3 PM Tue 81 77 NE 8 3408 2945 685 Blue 22
4 PM Tue 78 73 NE 9 2828 2479 219 Blue 18
5 PM Tue 73 68 E 9 2339 2260 0 Blue 13
6 PM Tue 68 63 E 8 1937 2260 0 Blue 8
7 PM Tue 63 58 E 8 1861 2260 0 Blue 3
8 PM Tue 60 55 E 7 1816 2260 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 59 54 E 6 1768 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 58 53 E 5 1721 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 57 52 E 5 1703 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 56 51 E 5 1703 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 56 51 E 5 1703 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 56 51 E 5 1703 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 56 51 E 5 1703 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 56 51 E 5 1703 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 56 51 E 6 1703 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 57 52 E 6 1703 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 59 54 E 6 1768 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 63 58 SE 5 1861 2260 0 Blue 3
9 AM Wed 68 64 S 5 1980 2260 0 Blue 9
10 AM Wed 73 69 SW 5 2425 2260 0 Blue 14
11 AM Wed 76 72 W 5 2741 2423 163 Blue 17
12 Noon Wed 78 75 W 5 3071 2738 478 Blue 20
1 PM Wed 79 75 NW 6 3071 2738 478 Blue 20
2 PM Wed 79 75 W 7 3071 2738 478 Blue 20
3 PM Wed 79 74 W 8 2950 2585 325 Blue 19
4 PM Wed 77 72 SW 8 2741 2423 163 Blue 17
5 PM Wed 72 67 SW 7 2175 2260 0 Blue 12
6 PM Wed 66 61 S 5 1905 2260 0 Blue 6
7 PM Wed 62 57 SE 2 1846 2260 0 Blue 2
8 PM Wed 60 55 SE 1 1816 2260 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 59 54 E 1 1768 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 60 55 E 1 1816 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 60 55 E 1 1816 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 60 55 SE 1 1816 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 59 54 SE 1 1768 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 59 54 S 1 1768 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 58 53 SW 1 1721 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 57 52 W 1 1703 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 56 51 W 1 1703 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 56 51 W 1 1703 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 57 52 E 2 1703 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 60 55 E 2 1816 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 64 59 E 2 1875 2260 0 Blue 4
10 AM Thu 68 64 SW 6 1980 2260 0 Blue 9
11 AM Thu 71 68 SW 6 2339 2260 0 Blue 13
12 Noon Thu 73 70 SW 6 2481 2260 0 Blue 15
1 PM Thu 74 70 W 7 2481 2260 0 Blue 15
2 PM Thu 74 70 W 7 2481 2260 0 Blue 15
3 PM Thu 74 69 W 7 2425 2260 0 Blue 14
4 PM Thu 72 67 W 9 2175 2260 0 Blue 12
5 PM Thu 68 63 W 9 1937 2260 0 Blue 8
6 PM Thu 63 58 W 9 1861 2260 0 Blue 3
7 PM Thu 60 55 S 3 1816 2260 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 58 53 S 3 1721 2260 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 58 53 S 3 1721 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 58 53 W 1 1721 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 57 52 W 1 1703 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 56 51 W 1 1703 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 55 50 E 1 1703 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 55 50 E 1 1703 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 55 50 E 1 1703 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 55 50 N 3 1703 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 54 49 N 3 1703 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 54 49 N 3 1703 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 55 50 NE 2 1703 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 58 53 NE 2 1721 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 62 57 NE 2 1846 2260 0 Blue 2
10 AM Fri 66 63 W 5 1937 2260 0 Blue 8
11 AM Fri 69 66 W 5 2082 2260 0 Blue 11
12 Noon Fri 72 69 W 5 2425 2260 0 Blue 14
1 PM Fri 73 70 W 6 2481 2260 0 Blue 15
2 PM Fri 75 71 W 6 2589 2335 75 Blue 16
3 PM Fri 74 69 W 6 2425 2260 0 Blue 14
4 PM Fri 73 68 W 6 2339 2260 0 Blue 13
5 PM Fri 69 64 W 6 1980 2260 0 Blue 9
6 PM Fri 63 58 W 6 1861 2260 0 Blue 3
7 PM Fri 58 53 W 1 1721 2260 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 55 50 W 1 1703 2260 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 54 49 W 1 1703 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 54 49 NE 2 1703 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 55 50 NE 2 1703 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 55 50 NE 2 1703 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 55 50 E 5 1703 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 54 49 E 5 1703 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 53 48 E 5 1703 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 53 48 E 7 1703 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 54 49 E 7 1703 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 56 51 E 7 1703 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 60 55 E 9 1816 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 65 60 E 9 1890 2260 0 Blue 5
9 AM Sat 70 66 E 9 2082 2260 0 Blue 11
10 AM Sat 74 71 E 8 2589 2335 75 Blue 16
11 AM Sat 77 75 E 8 3071 2738 478 Blue 20
12 Noon Sat 78 76 E 8 3228 2825 565 Blue 21
1 PM Sat 79 77 E 15 3408 2945 685 Blue 22
2 PM Sat 78 75 E 15 3071 2738 478 Blue 20
3 PM Sat 78 74 E 15 2950 2585 325 Blue 19
4 PM Sat 76 71 E 14 2589 2335 75 Blue 16
5 PM Sat 72 67 E 14 2175 2260 0 Blue 12
6 PM Sat 67 62 E 14 1919 2260 0 Blue 7
7 PM Sat 63 58 NE 10 1861 2260 0 Blue 3
8 PM Sat 60 55 NE 10 1816 2260 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 60 55 NE 10 1816 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 60 55 NE 12 1816 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 62 57 NE 12 1846 2260 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Sun 63 58 NE 12 1861 2260 0 Blue 3
1 AM Sun 64 59 NE 16 1875 2260 0 Blue 4
2 AM Sun 63 58 NE 16 1861 2260 0 Blue 3
3 AM Sun 61 56 NE 16 1832 2260 0 Blue 1

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst