Detailed Predictions for: Soboba
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 33.8223, -116.9588, 2260
LZ Altitude (f): 1520
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

27 MAR 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Wed 47 42 SSE 2 6 1749 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 47 42 S 2 6 1749 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 45 40 SSE 1 1 1749 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 44 39 ESE 1 1 1749 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 44 39 SE 0 0 1749 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 44 39 E 1 5 1749 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 44 39 ENE 1 1 1749 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 44 39 NE 1 1 1749 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 46 41 WNW 1 1 1749 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 50 46 W 1 5 1749 2260 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 54 52 W 3 8 2548 2260 0 Blue 3
11 AM Wed 58 58 W 4 9 3749 3280 1020 Blue 9
12 Noon Wed 60 60 WSW 4 10 3880 3678 1418 Blue 10
1 PM Wed 64 65 SW 5 11 4986 4100 1840 Blue 15
2 PM Wed 65 65 SW 8 13 4986 4100 1840 Blue 15
3 PM Wed 66 65 SW 8 14 4986 4100 1840 Blue 15
4 PM Wed 67 64 SW 11 18 4799 3970 1710 Blue 14
5 PM Wed 66 62 SSW 12 21 4113 3809 1549 Blue 12
6 PM Wed 64 59 SSW 10 18 3813 3374 1114 Blue 9
7 PM Wed 61 56 S 8 14 3379 2807 547 Blue 7
8 PM Wed 56 51 S 6 12 2299 2260 0 Blue 2
9 PM Wed 54 49 S 4 9 1831 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 52 47 SSE 2 6 1749 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 51 46 SSE 1 5 1749 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 49 44 SSE 1 1 1749 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 48 43 S 1 1 1749 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 46 41 S 0 0 1749 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 46 41 SSE 0 0 1749 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 45 40 SE 1 1 1749 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 44 39 SE 1 1 1749 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 45 40 SSE 1 1 1749 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 45 40 S 1 1 1749 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 48 43 S 1 1 1749 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 51 47 SSW 2 6 1749 2260 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 54 52 SW 4 9 2548 2260 0 Blue 3
11 AM Thu 56 55 SW 5 11 3285 2542 282 Blue 6
12 Noon Thu 59 59 SW 6 12 3813 3374 1114 Blue 9
1 PM Thu 61 62 WSW 6 13 4113 3809 1549 Blue 12
2 PM Thu 62 62 W 8 14 4113 3809 1549 Blue 12
3 PM Thu 64 63 W 11 18 4488 3873 1613 Blue 13
4 PM Thu 64 61 W 13 21 3977 3744 1484 Blue 11
5 PM Thu 64 59 W 14 25 3813 3374 1114 Blue 9
6 PM Thu 62 57 W 14 25 3683 3081 821 Blue 8
7 PM Thu 60 55 W 14 23 3285 2542 282 Blue 6
8 PM Thu 57 52 W 12 21 2548 2260 0 Blue 3
9 PM Thu 54 49 W 11 19 1831 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 52 47 W 10 18 1749 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 50 45 W 9 16 1749 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 48 43 W 8 14 1749 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 47 42 WSW 6 12 1749 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 46 41 SW 5 12 1749 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 45 40 SW 5 11 1749 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 44 39 SSW 5 12 1749 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 44 39 SSW 6 12 1749 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 43 38 SSW 5 12 1749 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 43 38 SSW 5 11 1749 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 44 39 SSW 5 12 1749 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 45 40 SSW 6 13 1749 2260 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 47 43 SSW 8 14 1749 2260 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 49 48 SW 9 17 1749 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 52 51 SW 10 18 2299 2260 0 Blue 2
1 PM Fri 53 52 SW 11 19 2548 2260 0 Blue 3
2 PM Fri 55 54 SW 12 20 3093 2295 35 Blue 5
3 PM Fri 56 54 SW 13 23 3093 2295 35 Blue 5
4 PM Fri 56 53 SW 16 25 2817 2260 0 Blue 4
5 PM Fri 56 51 SW 17 27 2299 2260 0 Blue 2
6 PM Fri 55 50 SW 17 27 2049 2260 0 Blue 1
7 PM Fri 52 47 SW 17 26 1749 2260 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 50 45 SW 16 25 1749 2260 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 48 43 SW 14 24 1749 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 47 42 SW 13 23 1749 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 45 40 SW 12 20 1749 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 44 39 SSW 12 20 1749 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 44 39 SSW 11 19 1749 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 44 39 S 11 19 1749 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 43 38 S 11 19 1749 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 43 38 S 11 19 1749 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 43 38 S 11 19 1749 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 43 38 S 11 19 1749 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 44 39 S 11 19 1749 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 45 40 SSE 11 19 1749 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 45 40 SSE 11 19 1749 2260 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 46 41 SSE 11 19 1749 2260 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 47 42 SSW 11 19 1749 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 47 42 SSW 11 19 1749 2260 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 47 42 SSW 11 19 1749 2260 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 47 42 SW 11 18 1749 2260 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 48 43 SW 11 18 1749 2260 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 48 43 SW 11 18 1749 2260 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 48 43 SSW 9 17 1749 2260 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 47 42 SSW 9 17 1749 2260 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 47 42 SSW 9 17 1749 2260 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 46 41 SSW 6 12 1749 2260 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 45 40 SSW 6 12 1749 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 44 39 SSW 6 12 1749 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 43 38 SSW 5 11 1749 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 42 37 SSW 5 11 1749 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 42 37 SSW 5 11 1749 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 41 36 S 5 11 1749 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 41 36 S 5 11 1749 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 41 36 S 5 11 1749 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 41 36 SSE 6 12 1749 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 41 36 SSE 6 12 1749 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 41 36 SSE 6 12 1749 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 42 37 SSE 5 11 1749 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 43 38 SSE 5 11 1749 2260 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 45 41 SSE 5 11 1749 2260 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 47 42 SSW 9 14 1749 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 48 44 SSW 9 14 1749 2260 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 50 46 SSW 9 14 1749 2260 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 50 46 SSW 11 18 1749 2260 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 50 45 SSW 11 18 1749 2260 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 50 45 SSW 11 18 1749 2260 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 49 44 SSW 9 17 1749 2260 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 48 43 SSW 9 17 1749 2260 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 48 43 SSW 9 17 1749 2260 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 47 42 E 10 17 1749 2260 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 46 41 E 10 17 1749 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 46 41 E 10 17 1749 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 45 40 SE 5 10 1749 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 44 39 SE 5 10 1749 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 43 38 SE 5 10 1749 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 43 38 E 4 10 1749 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 42 37 E 4 10 1749 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 42 37 E 4 10 1749 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 42 37 NE 4 9 1749 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 42 37 NE 4 9 1749 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 43 38 NE 4 9 1749 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 44 39 N 3 8 1749 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 46 41 N 3 8 1749 2260 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 48 44 N 3 8 1749 2260 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 50 47 W 6 12 1749 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 52 50 W 6 12 2049 2260 0 Blue 1
1 PM Mon 54 52 W 6 12 2548 2260 0 Blue 3
2 PM Mon 56 54 W 9 16 3093 2295 35 Blue 5
3 PM Mon 57 54 W 9 16 3093 2295 35 Blue 5
4 PM Mon 58 54 W 9 16 3093 2295 35 Blue 5
5 PM Mon 58 53 W 9 16 2817 2260 0 Blue 4
6 PM Mon 56 51 W 9 16 2299 2260 0 Blue 2
7 PM Mon 55 50 W 9 16 2049 2260 0 Blue 1
8 PM Mon 53 48 WSW 6 12 1749 2260 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 51 46 WSW 6 12 1749 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 49 44 WSW 6 12 1749 2260 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst