Detailed Predictions for: Soboba
Launch Altitude (f): 2260
LZ Altitude (f): 1520
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

18 MAY 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 48 43 SE 2 1276 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 47 42 SE 2 1276 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 48 43 SE 2 1276 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 52 48 SW 2 1276 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 55 53 SW 3 1833 2260 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 59 59 SW 3 3317 2533 273 Blue 5
11 AM Sat 63 63 SW 6 4145 3699 1439 Blue 9
12 Noon Sat 66 66 SW 7 4888 4141 1881 Blue 12
1 PM Sat 68 69 SW 8 5292 4857 2597 Blue 15
2 PM Sat 70 70 SW 10 5420 5061 2801 Blue 16
3 PM Sat 70 69 SW 12 5292 4857 2597 Blue 15
4 PM Sat 70 68 SW 13 5183 4486 2226 Blue 14
5 PM Sat 70 66 SW 15 4888 4141 1881 Blue 12
6 PM Sat 67 62 SW 14 4096 3296 1036 Blue 8
7 PM Sat 63 58 SW 13 2957 2374 114 Blue 4
8 PM Sat 60 55 S 9 2378 2260 0 Blue 1
9 PM Sat 57 52 S 9 1557 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 55 50 S 8 1276 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 53 48 S 8 1276 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 52 47 S 8 1276 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 51 46 S 8 1276 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 50 45 S 9 1276 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 50 45 S 8 1276 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 50 45 S 8 1276 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 50 45 S 8 1276 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 49 44 S 8 1276 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 49 44 S 7 1276 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 51 46 S 7 1276 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 52 47 S 9 1276 2260 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 53 48 SW 10 1276 2260 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 54 51 SW 13 1280 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 55 53 SW 14 1833 2260 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 56 54 SW 15 2208 2260 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 57 54 SW 16 2208 2260 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 56 53 SW 16 1833 2260 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 56 52 SW 16 1557 2260 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 57 53 SW 15 1833 2260 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 55 50 SW 15 1276 2260 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 54 49 SW 14 1276 2260 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 52 47 SW 13 1276 2260 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 51 46 SW 13 1276 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 50 45 SW 12 1276 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 49 44 SW 12 1276 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 48 43 SW 12 1276 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 48 43 SW 12 1276 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 48 43 SW 12 1276 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 48 43 SW 10 1276 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 47 42 S 9 1276 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 47 42 S 7 1276 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 47 42 S 7 1276 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 48 43 S 6 1276 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 50 45 S 6 1276 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 52 48 SW 7 1276 2260 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 54 51 SW 8 1280 2260 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 57 58 W 9 2957 2374 114 Blue 4
12 Noon Mon 59 61 W 9 4004 2949 689 Blue 7
1 PM Mon 60 62 W 10 4096 3296 1036 Blue 8
2 PM Mon 62 63 SW 12 4145 3699 1439 Blue 9
3 PM Mon 61 61 SW 13 4004 2949 689 Blue 7
4 PM Mon 61 59 SW 14 3317 2533 273 Blue 5
5 PM Mon 61 57 SW 14 2747 2260 0 Blue 3
6 PM Mon 60 55 SW 14 2378 2260 0 Blue 1
7 PM Mon 57 52 SW 13 1557 2260 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 55 50 SW 12 1276 2260 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 53 48 SW 12 1276 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 52 47 S 12 1276 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 51 46 S 12 1276 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 50 45 S 12 1276 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 49 44 S 12 1276 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 49 44 SW 12 1276 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 49 44 SW 12 1276 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 48 43 SW 12 1276 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 48 43 SW 12 1276 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 48 43 SW 12 1276 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 48 43 SW 12 1276 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 50 45 SW 15 1276 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 51 47 SW 15 1276 2260 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 52 48 SW 15 1276 2260 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 53 50 SW 16 1276 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 54 52 SW 16 1557 2260 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 55 53 SW 16 1833 2260 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 56 53 W 21 1833 2260 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 56 53 W 21 1833 2260 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 56 52 W 21 1557 2260 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 56 51 W 21 1280 2260 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 54 49 W 21 1276 2260 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 52 47 W 21 1276 2260 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 51 46 SW 9 1276 2260 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 50 45 SW 9 1276 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 49 44 SW 9 1276 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 48 43 S 9 1276 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 47 42 S 9 1276 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 47 42 S 9 1276 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 47 42 SE 8 1276 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 46 41 SE 8 1276 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 46 41 SE 8 1276 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 46 41 SE 7 1276 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 46 41 SE 7 1276 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 47 42 SE 7 1276 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 49 44 S 6 1276 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 51 47 S 6 1276 2260 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 53 49 S 6 1276 2260 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 55 54 SW 6 2208 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 57 57 SW 6 2747 2260 0 Blue 3
1 PM Wed 58 58 SW 6 2957 2374 114 Blue 4
2 PM Wed 60 59 W 8 3317 2533 273 Blue 5
3 PM Wed 60 58 W 8 2957 2374 114 Blue 4
4 PM Wed 60 57 W 8 2747 2260 0 Blue 3
5 PM Wed 60 56 SW 10 2537 2260 0 Blue 2
6 PM Wed 58 53 SW 10 1833 2260 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 56 51 SW 10 1280 2260 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 54 49 S 8 1276 2260 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 52 47 S 8 1276 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 51 46 S 8 1276 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 50 45 S 2 1276 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 50 45 S 2 1276 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 49 44 S 2 1276 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 49 44 N 2 1276 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 49 44 N 2 1276 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 48 43 N 2 1276 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 48 43 N 1 1276 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 48 43 N 1 1276 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 49 44 N 1 1276 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 52 48 W 3 1276 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 55 52 W 3 1557 2260 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 59 57 W 3 2747 2260 0 Blue 3
11 AM Thu 62 62 W 5 4096 3296 1036 Blue 8
12 Noon Thu 65 66 W 5 4888 4141 1881 Blue 12
1 PM Thu 68 69 W 5 5292 4857 2597 Blue 15
2 PM Thu 69 69 SE 7 5292 4857 2597 Blue 15
3 PM Thu 70 69 SE 7 5292 4857 2597 Blue 15
4 PM Thu 70 68 SE 7 5183 4486 2226 Blue 14
5 PM Thu 69 65 SW 10 4519 4092 1832 Blue 11
6 PM Thu 66 61 SW 10 4004 2949 689 Blue 7
7 PM Thu 63 58 SW 10 2957 2374 114 Blue 4
8 PM Thu 59 54 W 6 2208 2260 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 57 52 W 6 1557 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 55 50 W 6 1276 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 53 48 SW 5 1276 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 52 47 SW 5 1276 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 51 46 SW 5 1276 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 50 45 S 1 1276 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 50 45 S 1 1276 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 50 45 S 1 1276 2260 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst