Detailed Predictions for: Soboba
Launch Altitude (f): 2260
LZ Altitude (f): 1520
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

18 SEP 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Wed 57 52 SE 2 1430 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 58 53 E 2 1430 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 59 54 E 1 1430 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 61 56 S 1 1430 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 65 61 SW 2 1539 2260 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 69 67 SW 5 2236 2260 0 Blue 2
11 AM Wed 73 73 SW 6 3182 2921 661 Blue 8
12 Noon Wed 77 78 SW 7 4132 3455 1195 Blue 13
1 PM Wed 80 81 SW 8 4901 4113 1853 Blue 16
2 PM Wed 82 82 SW 9 5054 4368 2108 Blue 17
3 PM Wed 82 81 SW 9 4901 4113 1853 Blue 16
4 PM Wed 82 80 SW 10 4646 3856 1596 Blue 15
5 PM Wed 80 76 SW 12 3614 3176 916 Blue 11
6 PM Wed 76 71 SW 10 2991 2340 80 Blue 6
7 PM Wed 71 66 SW 8 2097 2260 0 Blue 1
8 PM Wed 67 62 S 6 1606 2260 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 64 59 S 5 1430 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 63 58 S 3 1430 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 61 56 S 2 1430 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 60 55 S 2 1430 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 59 54 S 2 1430 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 57 52 S 2 1430 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 56 51 S 2 1430 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 55 50 S 2 1430 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 54 49 S 2 1430 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 54 49 S 2 1430 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 55 50 S 2 1430 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 56 51 S 2 1430 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 60 56 S 5 1430 2260 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 64 62 SW 6 1606 2260 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 69 69 SW 8 2857 2260 0 Blue 4
12 Noon Thu 72 73 SW 9 3182 2921 661 Blue 8
1 PM Thu 75 77 SW 10 3874 3316 1056 Blue 12
2 PM Thu 77 78 SW 10 4132 3455 1195 Blue 13
3 PM Thu 76 76 SW 12 3614 3176 916 Blue 11
4 PM Thu 76 74 SW 13 3322 2988 728 Blue 9
5 PM Thu 74 70 SW 13 2924 2260 0 Blue 5
6 PM Thu 70 65 S 12 1878 2260 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 66 61 S 9 1539 2260 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 63 58 S 7 1430 2260 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 61 56 S 6 1430 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 60 55 S 5 1430 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 59 54 S 3 1430 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 58 53 S 3 1430 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 57 52 S 3 1430 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 56 51 SE 3 1430 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 55 50 SE 3 1430 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 54 49 SE 3 1430 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 54 49 SE 2 1430 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 54 49 S 2 1430 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 55 50 S 2 1430 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 57 52 SW 2 1430 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 60 56 SW 2 1430 2260 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 64 62 W 5 1606 2260 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 69 69 W 6 2857 2260 0 Blue 4
12 Noon Fri 74 75 W 6 3463 3070 810 Blue 10
1 PM Fri 79 80 W 6 4646 3856 1596 Blue 15
2 PM Fri 83 84 W 5 5261 4875 2615 Blue 19
3 PM Fri 85 84 SW 5 5261 4875 2615 Blue 19
4 PM Fri 85 83 S 6 5157 4622 2362 Blue 18
5 PM Fri 84 80 S 5 4646 3856 1596 Blue 15
6 PM Fri 80 75 S 5 3463 3070 810 Blue 10
7 PM Fri 74 69 S 5 2857 2260 0 Blue 4
8 PM Fri 68 63 S 3 1674 2260 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 65 60 SE 3 1471 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 63 58 NE 2 1430 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 62 57 N 1 1430 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 61 56 N 1 1430 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 61 56 N 1 1430 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 60 55 N 2 1430 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 59 54 N 2 1430 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 59 54 NE 2 1430 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 60 55 NE 2 1430 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 62 57 NE 2 1430 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 66 61 NE 2 1539 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 70 65 E 2 1878 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 75 71 E 2 2991 2340 80 Blue 6
10 AM Sat 79 77 E 2 3874 3316 1056 Blue 12
11 AM Sat 82 82 NE 6 5054 4368 2108 Blue 17
12 Noon Sat 85 86 NE 6 5468 5146 2886 Blue 21
1 PM Sat 86 87 NE 6 5772 5249 2989 Blue 22
2 PM Sat 88 89 E 6 6659 5456 3196 Blue 24
3 PM Sat 89 88 E 6 6126 5353 3093 Blue 23
4 PM Sat 88 86 E 6 5468 5146 2886 Blue 21
5 PM Sat 87 83 E 7 5157 4622 2362 Blue 18
6 PM Sat 82 77 E 7 3874 3316 1056 Blue 12
7 PM Sat 76 71 E 7 2991 2340 80 Blue 6
8 PM Sat 70 65 S 3 1878 2260 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 67 62 S 3 1606 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 66 61 S 3 1539 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 65 60 NE 2 1471 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 64 59 NE 2 1430 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 63 58 NE 2 1430 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 63 58 E 3 1430 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 62 57 E 3 1430 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 62 57 E 3 1430 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 63 58 E 8 1430 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 66 61 E 8 1539 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 70 65 E 8 1878 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 74 69 NE 5 2857 2260 0 Blue 4
9 AM Sun 79 75 NE 5 3463 3070 810 Blue 10
10 AM Sun 83 81 NE 5 4901 4113 1853 Blue 16
11 AM Sun 87 86 N 3 5468 5146 2886 Blue 21
12 Noon Sun 89 89 N 3 6659 5456 3196 Blue 24
1 PM Sun 90 91 N 3 7680 6052 3792 Blue 26
2 PM Sun 89 89 SW 12 6659 5456 3196 Blue 24
3 PM Sun 89 88 SW 12 6126 5353 3093 Blue 23
4 PM Sun 88 85 SW 12 5365 5043 2783 Blue 20
5 PM Sun 85 81 S 13 4901 4113 1853 Blue 16
6 PM Sun 81 76 S 13 3614 3176 916 Blue 11
7 PM Sun 76 71 S 13 2991 2340 80 Blue 6
8 PM Sun 72 67 S 6 2236 2260 0 Blue 2
9 PM Sun 68 63 S 6 1674 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 66 61 S 6 1539 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 64 59 W 2 1430 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 62 57 W 2 1430 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 60 55 W 2 1430 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 58 53 SW 2 1430 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 58 53 SW 2 1430 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 58 53 SW 2 1430 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 59 54 S 3 1430 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 59 54 S 3 1430 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 58 53 S 3 1430 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 58 53 SW 6 1430 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 59 55 SW 6 1430 2260 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 61 59 SW 6 1430 2260 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 65 64 SW 8 1741 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 70 70 SW 8 2924 2260 0 Blue 5
1 PM Mon 76 76 SW 8 3614 3176 916 Blue 11
2 PM Mon 80 80 SW 12 4646 3856 1596 Blue 15
3 PM Mon 81 79 SW 12 4389 3599 1339 Blue 14
4 PM Mon 81 78 SW 12 4132 3455 1195 Blue 13
5 PM Mon 78 74 SW 12 3322 2988 728 Blue 9
6 PM Mon 74 69 SW 12 2857 2260 0 Blue 4
7 PM Mon 69 64 SW 12 1741 2260 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 65 60 S 6 1471 2260 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 63 58 S 6 1430 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 61 56 S 6 1430 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 60 55 S 3 1430 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 60 55 S 3 1430 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 59 54 S 3 1430 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 59 54 S 3 1430 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 59 54 S 3 1430 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 59 54 S 3 1430 2260 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst