Detailed Predictions for: Soboba
Launch Altitude (f): 2260
LZ Altitude (f): 1520
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Wed 46 41 SE 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Wed 46 41 S 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Wed 45 40 E 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Wed 45 40 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Wed 48 43 SE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Wed 52 47 SE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Wed 55 50 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Wed 57 52 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Wed 59 54 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Wed 60 55 SW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Wed 59 54 SW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Wed 60 55 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Wed 59 54 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Wed 56 51 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Wed 54 49 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Wed 53 48 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Wed 52 47 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Wed 51 46 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Wed 51 46 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Wed 50 45 SE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Thu 50 45 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Thu 50 45 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Thu 50 45 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Thu 49 44 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Thu 49 44 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Thu 49 44 S 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 48 43 S 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 48 43 S 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 50 45 S 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 53 48 S 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 55 50 S 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 56 51 S 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 57 52 S 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 58 53 S 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 57 52 S 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 58 53 S 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 57 52 S 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 53 48 S 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 50 45 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 49 44 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 47 42 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 46 41 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 45 40 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 44 39 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 44 39 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 44 39 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 44 39 W 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 43 38 W 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 43 38 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 43 38 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 42 37 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 42 37 S 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 46 41 S 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 51 46 S 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 54 50 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 57 54 S 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 59 56 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 60 57 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 60 56 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 61 56 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 60 55 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 56 51 S 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 53 48 S 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 51 46 SE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 49 44 E 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 48 43 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 48 43 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 47 42 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 46 41 E 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 46 41 E 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 46 41 E 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 45 40 E 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 45 40 E 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 45 40 E 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 44 39 E 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 44 39 NE 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 49 44 NE 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 55 51 NE 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 59 55 NE 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 62 59 NE 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 65 62 NE 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 66 63 NE 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 67 63 NE 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 67 62 NE 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 66 61 E 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 60 55 E 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 57 52 E 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 55 50 E 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 53 48 E 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 51 46 E 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 50 45 NE 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 49 44 NE 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 49 44 NE 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 49 44 E 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 48 43 E 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 48 43 E 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 47 42 E 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 47 42 E 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 46 41 E 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 46 41 E 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 51 46 E 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 57 53 E 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 61 57 E 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 64 61 E 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 67 64 E 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 68 65 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 69 65 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 68 63 NW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 67 62 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 61 56 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 57 52 W 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 54 49 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 51 46 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 50 45 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 49 44 E 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 47 42 E 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 47 42 E 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 47 42 SE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 46 41 SE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 45 40 SE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 45 40 SE 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 45 40 SE 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 43 38 SE 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 43 38 E 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 47 42 E 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 54 50 E 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 57 53 E 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 61 58 E 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 63 60 E 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 64 61 E 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 65 61 E 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 65 60 E 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 64 59 E 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 58 53 E 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 54 49 E 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 52 47 E 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 49 44 E 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 48 43 E 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 47 42 E 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 46 41 E 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 45 40 E 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 45 40 NE 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 45 40 NE 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 44 39 NE 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst