Detailed Predictions for: Soboba
Launch Altitude (f): 2260
LZ Altitude (f): 1520
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

20 JUL 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Fri 68 63 NE 1 1673 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 69 64 E 1 1673 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 72 67 NW 0 1686 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 74 70 W 3 1962 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 78 75 SW 3 2485 2260 0 Blue 5
10 AM Fri 82 81 W 3 3528 2920 660 Blue 11
11 AM Fri 86 86 W 7 4639 4074 1814 Blue 16
12 Noon Fri 89 90 W 7 5762 4794 2534 Blue 20
1 PM Fri 91 92 SW 8 6307 5454 3194 Blue 22
2 PM Fri 93 93 SW 10 6578 5727 3467 Blue 23
3 PM Fri 92 91 SW 12 6035 5179 2919 Blue 21
4 PM Fri 92 90 SW 12 5762 4794 2534 Blue 20
5 PM Fri 90 87 SW 12 4852 4310 2050 Blue 17
6 PM Fri 86 81 SW 12 3528 2920 660 Blue 11
7 PM Fri 82 77 SW 10 2745 2392 132 Blue 7
8 PM Fri 79 74 SW 7 2394 2260 0 Blue 4
9 PM Fri 76 71 SW 6 2088 2260 0 Blue 1
10 PM Fri 74 69 SW 5 1859 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 72 67 SW 2 1686 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 70 65 SW 3 1673 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 69 64 SW 2 1673 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 68 63 SW 1 1673 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 67 62 S 1 1673 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 66 61 S 1 1673 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 66 61 NW 1 1673 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 67 62 N 1 1673 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 69 64 NW 1 1673 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 72 68 W 2 1773 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 76 73 W 3 2303 2260 0 Blue 3
10 AM Sat 81 80 W 3 3288 2740 480 Blue 10
11 AM Sat 85 85 W 7 4481 3794 1534 Blue 15
12 Noon Sat 90 91 W 7 6035 5179 2919 Blue 21
1 PM Sat 93 94 W 7 6762 5999 3739 Blue 24
2 PM Sat 94 95 W 9 6904 6269 4009 Blue 25
3 PM Sat 94 94 W 9 6762 5999 3739 Blue 24
4 PM Sat 94 92 SW 9 6307 5454 3194 Blue 22
5 PM Sat 92 89 SW 10 5486 4624 2364 Blue 19
6 PM Sat 88 84 W 10 4323 3513 1253 Blue 14
7 PM Sat 84 79 W 9 3108 2574 314 Blue 9
8 PM Sat 80 75 SW 7 2485 2260 0 Blue 5
9 PM Sat 76 71 SW 5 2088 2260 0 Blue 1
10 PM Sat 73 68 SW 5 1773 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 71 66 SW 2 1673 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 69 64 W 2 1673 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 68 63 W 1 1673 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 67 62 NW 1 1673 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 66 61 N 1 1673 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 66 61 W 0 1673 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 66 61 N 1 1673 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 67 62 E 1 1673 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 69 64 N 0 1673 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 72 68 W 2 1773 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 76 73 W 3 2303 2260 0 Blue 3
10 AM Sun 81 80 W 3 3288 2740 480 Blue 10
11 AM Sun 86 87 W 6 4852 4310 2050 Blue 17
12 Noon Sun 91 93 W 7 6578 5727 3467 Blue 23
1 PM Sun 94 97 W 7 8073 6740 4480 Blue 27
2 PM Sun 97 99 W 8 8978 7298 5038 Blue 29
3 PM Sun 97 98 W 8 8644 6881 4621 Blue 28
4 PM Sun 98 97 W 9 8073 6740 4480 Blue 27
5 PM Sun 96 93 W 10 6578 5727 3467 Blue 23
6 PM Sun 94 90 W 9 5762 4794 2534 Blue 20
7 PM Sun 91 86 W 8 4639 4074 1814 Blue 16
8 PM Sun 87 82 W 7 3812 3100 840 Blue 12
9 PM Sun 83 78 SW 5 2927 2483 223 Blue 8
10 PM Sun 79 74 S 3 2394 2260 0 Blue 4
11 PM Sun 76 71 S 2 2088 2260 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Mon 75 70 S 1 1962 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 74 69 S 1 1859 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 74 69 S 1 1859 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 73 68 SE 1 1773 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 72 67 NE 0 1686 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 72 67 N 0 1686 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 74 69 N 0 1859 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 76 71 N 0 2088 2260 0 Blue 1
8 AM Mon 80 76 W 2 2576 2302 42 Blue 6
9 AM Mon 86 83 W 2 4094 3280 1020 Blue 13
10 AM Mon 91 90 W 2 5762 4794 2534 Blue 20
11 AM Mon 96 97 W 7 8073 6740 4480 Blue 27
12 Noon Mon 100 102 W 7 9968 8902 6642 Blue 32
1 PM Mon 103 106 W 7 11823 10214 7954 White 36
2 PM Mon 105 107 W 9 12028 10550 8290 White 37
3 PM Mon 105 106 W 9 11823 10214 7954 White 36
4 PM Mon 104 103 W 9 10306 9230 6970 Blue 33
5 PM Mon 102 99 W 10 8978 7298 5038 Blue 29
6 PM Mon 99 95 W 10 6904 6269 4009 Blue 25
7 PM Mon 96 91 W 10 6035 5179 2919 Blue 21
8 PM Mon 92 87 SW 6 4852 4310 2050 Blue 17
9 PM Mon 87 82 SW 6 3812 3100 840 Blue 12
10 PM Mon 82 77 SW 6 2745 2392 132 Blue 7
11 PM Mon 78 73 S 1 2303 2260 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Tue 77 72 S 1 2212 2260 0 Blue 2
1 AM Tue 77 72 S 1 2212 2260 0 Blue 2
2 AM Tue 77 72 S 1 2212 2260 0 Blue 2
3 AM Tue 77 72 S 1 2212 2260 0 Blue 2
4 AM Tue 76 71 S 1 2088 2260 0 Blue 1
5 AM Tue 76 71 E 0 2088 2260 0 Blue 1
6 AM Tue 77 72 E 0 2212 2260 0 Blue 2
7 AM Tue 80 75 E 0 2485 2260 0 Blue 5
8 AM Tue 84 80 SW 3 3288 2740 480 Blue 10
9 AM Tue 88 85 SW 3 4481 3794 1534 Blue 15
10 AM Tue 94 93 SW 3 6578 5727 3467 Blue 23
11 AM Tue 98 99 W 7 8978 7298 5038 Blue 29
12 Noon Tue 103 105 W 7 10990 9879 7619 Blue 35
1 PM Tue 106 108 W 7 12233 10890 8630 White 38
2 PM Tue 108 110 SW 10 12641 12457 10197 White 40
3 PM Tue 108 108 SW 10 12233 10890 8630 White 38
4 PM Tue 107 106 SW 10 11823 10214 7954 White 36
5 PM Tue 105 102 W 10 9968 8902 6642 Blue 32
6 PM Tue 102 98 W 10 8644 6881 4621 Blue 28
7 PM Tue 99 94 W 10 6762 5999 3739 Blue 24
8 PM Tue 95 90 SW 7 5762 4794 2534 Blue 20
9 PM Tue 90 85 SW 7 4481 3794 1534 Blue 15
10 PM Tue 86 81 SW 7 3528 2920 660 Blue 11
11 PM Tue 83 78 S 2 2927 2483 223 Blue 8
12 Midnight Wed 81 76 S 2 2576 2302 42 Blue 6
1 AM Wed 81 76 S 2 2576 2302 42 Blue 6
2 AM Wed 80 75 NW 1 2485 2260 0 Blue 5
3 AM Wed 79 74 NW 1 2394 2260 0 Blue 4
4 AM Wed 77 72 NW 1 2212 2260 0 Blue 2
5 AM Wed 77 72 N 1 2212 2260 0 Blue 2
6 AM Wed 78 73 N 1 2303 2260 0 Blue 3
7 AM Wed 81 76 N 1 2576 2302 42 Blue 6
8 AM Wed 85 81 W 3 3528 2920 660 Blue 11
9 AM Wed 89 86 W 3 4639 4074 1814 Blue 16
10 AM Wed 94 93 W 3 6578 5727 3467 Blue 23
11 AM Wed 98 99 W 7 8978 7298 5038 Blue 29
12 Noon Wed 102 104 W 7 10648 9555 7295 Blue 34
1 PM Wed 105 108 W 7 12233 10890 8630 White 38
2 PM Wed 107 109 SW 12 12438 11225 8965 White 39
3 PM Wed 107 108 SW 12 12233 10890 8630 White 38
4 PM Wed 106 105 SW 12 10990 9879 7619 Blue 35
5 PM Wed 103 100 SW 10 9309 7946 5686 Blue 30
6 PM Wed 100 96 SW 10 7417 6537 4277 Blue 26
7 PM Wed 95 90 SW 10 5762 4794 2534 Blue 20
8 PM Wed 90 85 S 7 4481 3794 1534 Blue 15
9 PM Wed 86 81 S 7 3528 2920 660 Blue 11
10 PM Wed 82 77 S 7 2745 2392 132 Blue 7
11 PM Wed 80 75 S 2 2485 2260 0 Blue 5
12 Midnight Thu 79 74 S 2 2394 2260 0 Blue 4
1 AM Thu 78 73 S 2 2303 2260 0 Blue 3
2 AM Thu 78 73 W 0 2303 2260 0 Blue 3
3 AM Thu 77 72 W 0 2212 2260 0 Blue 2
4 AM Thu 76 71 W 0 2088 2260 0 Blue 1

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst