Detailed Predictions for: Soboba
Launch Altitude (f): 2260
LZ Altitude (f): 1520
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

22 APR 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 56 51 SE 2 1552 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 57 52 SE 2 1552 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 60 55 S 1 1552 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 64 60 S 1 1552 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 69 66 S 2 1552 2260 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 74 72 SW 3 1786 2260 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 79 79 W 5 5448 2757 497 Blue 7
12 Noon Sun 83 84 W 6 9185 6210 3950 Blue 12
1 PM Sun 86 87 W 7 11767 8876 6616 Blue 15
2 PM Sun 88 88 W 8 11852 10063 7803 Blue 15
3 PM Sun 88 87 W 9 11767 8876 6616 Blue 15
4 PM Sun 88 86 W 10 11677 7565 5305 Blue 14
5 PM Sun 84 80 W 12 5895 3739 1479 Blue 8
6 PM Sun 79 74 W 10 2192 2260 0 Blue 2
7 PM Sun 72 67 W 9 1552 2260 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 67 62 S 3 1552 2260 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 63 58 S 3 1552 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 61 56 S 2 1552 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 60 55 SE 2 1552 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 60 55 SE 2 1552 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 59 54 SE 2 1552 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 58 53 SE 1 1552 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 57 52 E 1 1552 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 55 50 SE 0 1552 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 55 50 E 1 1552 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 56 51 NE 1 1552 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 59 54 E 1 1552 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 63 59 S 2 1552 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 68 66 SW 2 1552 2260 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 72 71 SW 3 1660 2260 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 76 77 SW 5 3799 2260 0 Blue 5
12 Noon Mon 80 82 W 5 6916 5396 3136 Blue 10
1 PM Mon 83 85 W 6 11129 6782 4522 Blue 13
2 PM Mon 85 86 W 8 11677 7565 5305 Blue 14
3 PM Mon 85 85 W 9 11129 6782 4522 Blue 13
4 PM Mon 85 83 W 10 7709 5837 3577 Blue 11
5 PM Mon 83 79 W 10 5448 2757 497 Blue 7
6 PM Mon 79 74 W 8 2192 2260 0 Blue 2
7 PM Mon 74 69 W 5 1552 2260 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 69 64 W 2 1552 2260 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 65 60 SW 2 1552 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 62 57 S 2 1552 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 60 55 SE 2 1552 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 59 54 S 2 1552 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 58 53 SE 1 1552 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 57 52 SE 1 1552 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 56 51 SE 1 1552 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 54 49 SE 1 1552 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 54 49 E 1 1552 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 55 50 E 1 1552 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 58 53 E 1 1552 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 61 57 SW 2 1552 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 66 63 SW 3 1552 2260 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 71 70 W 3 1552 2260 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 77 76 W 5 2791 2260 0 Blue 4
12 Noon Tue 82 82 W 5 6916 5396 3136 Blue 10
1 PM Tue 85 85 W 6 11129 6782 4522 Blue 13
2 PM Tue 86 86 W 9 11677 7565 5305 Blue 14
3 PM Tue 86 85 W 9 11129 6782 4522 Blue 13
4 PM Tue 84 81 SW 10 6254 4629 2369 Blue 9
5 PM Tue 81 77 SW 9 3799 2260 0 Blue 5
6 PM Tue 78 73 SW 9 1964 2260 0 Blue 1
7 PM Tue 74 69 SW 7 1552 2260 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 70 65 SW 6 1552 2260 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 66 61 SW 6 1552 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 62 57 SW 6 1552 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 60 55 S 3 1552 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 59 54 S 3 1552 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 58 53 S 3 1552 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 57 52 SW 1 1552 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 56 51 SW 1 1552 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 54 49 SW 1 1552 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 53 48 N 1 1552 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 54 49 N 1 1552 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 58 53 N 1 1552 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 62 58 NW 5 1552 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 66 63 NW 5 1552 2260 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 70 68 NW 5 1552 2260 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 74 74 W 7 2192 2260 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Wed 78 79 W 7 5448 2757 497 Blue 7
1 PM Wed 80 81 W 7 6254 4629 2369 Blue 9
2 PM Wed 82 83 W 10 7709 5837 3577 Blue 11
3 PM Wed 83 82 W 10 6916 5396 3136 Blue 10
4 PM Wed 83 81 W 10 6254 4629 2369 Blue 9
5 PM Wed 80 76 W 12 2791 2260 0 Blue 4
6 PM Wed 77 72 W 12 1786 2260 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 72 67 W 12 1552 2260 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 67 62 W 7 1552 2260 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 62 57 W 7 1552 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 58 53 W 7 1552 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 56 51 SW 1 1552 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 54 49 SW 1 1552 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 53 48 SW 1 1552 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 52 47 W 0 1552 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 51 46 W 0 1552 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 51 46 W 0 1552 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 51 46 N 1 1552 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 52 47 N 1 1552 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 55 50 N 1 1552 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 58 54 NW 3 1552 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 62 59 NW 3 1552 2260 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 66 65 NW 3 1552 2260 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 71 71 W 8 1660 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 75 76 W 8 2791 2260 0 Blue 4
1 PM Thu 78 79 W 8 5448 2757 497 Blue 7
2 PM Thu 80 81 W 12 6254 4629 2369 Blue 9
3 PM Thu 81 80 W 12 5895 3739 1479 Blue 8
4 PM Thu 80 78 W 12 4708 2414 154 Blue 6
5 PM Thu 78 74 W 13 2192 2260 0 Blue 2
6 PM Thu 75 70 W 13 1552 2260 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 70 65 W 13 1552 2260 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 66 61 SW 8 1552 2260 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 62 57 SW 8 1552 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 58 53 SW 8 1552 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 56 51 S 2 1552 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 54 49 S 2 1552 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 53 48 S 2 1552 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 52 47 W 0 1552 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 51 46 W 0 1552 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 50 45 W 0 1552 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 50 45 W 1 1552 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 51 46 W 1 1552 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 53 48 W 1 1552 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 56 52 W 3 1552 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 61 58 W 3 1552 2260 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 67 66 W 3 1552 2260 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 72 73 SW 7 1964 2260 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Fri 76 78 SW 7 4708 2414 154 Blue 6
1 PM Fri 79 81 SW 7 6254 4629 2369 Blue 9
2 PM Fri 81 82 W 12 6916 5396 3136 Blue 10
3 PM Fri 81 81 W 12 6254 4629 2369 Blue 9
4 PM Fri 80 78 W 12 4708 2414 154 Blue 6
5 PM Fri 78 74 W 13 2192 2260 0 Blue 2
6 PM Fri 75 70 W 13 1552 2260 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 71 66 W 13 1552 2260 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 66 61 SW 8 1552 2260 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 63 58 SW 8 1552 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 60 55 SW 8 1552 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 57 52 S 2 1552 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 55 50 S 2 1552 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 54 49 S 2 1552 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 53 48 S 0 1552 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 52 47 S 0 1552 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 51 46 S 0 1552 2260 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst