Detailed Predictions for: Soboba
Launch Altitude (f): 3570
LZ Altitude (f): 1520
Sounding

Station:

 KNKX

Date/Time:

 10 MAR 2010

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
7 AM Wed 38 33 W 5 3261 3570 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 42 38 W 5 3401 3570 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 45 42 W 5 5623 3570 0 Blue 3
10 AM Wed 45 43 W 7 5711 5217 1647 Blue 4
11 AM Wed 47 46 W 7 6095 5704 2134 Blue 7
12 Noon Wed 48 47 W 7 6338 5792 2222 Blue 8
1 PM Wed 50 48 W 10 6579 5881 2311 Blue 9
2 PM Wed 51 49 W 10 6820 6073 2503 Blue 10
3 PM Wed 50 46 W 10 6095 5704 2134 Blue 7
4 PM Wed 50 45 W 15 5888 5616 2046 Blue 6
5 PM Wed 48 43 W 15 5711 5217 1647 Blue 4
6 PM Wed 46 41 W 15 5535 3570 0 Blue 2
7 PM Wed 44 39 W 11 3553 3570 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 43 38 W 11 3401 3570 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 42 37 W 11 3261 3570 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 42 37 W 5 3261 3570 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 42 37 W 5 3261 3570 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 41 36 W 5 3261 3570 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 41 36 NW 3 3261 3570 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 40 35 NW 3 3261 3570 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 40 35 NW 3 3261 3570 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 39 34 N 3 3261 3570 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 39 34 N 3 3261 3570 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 39 34 N 3 3261 3570 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 42 37 E 5 3261 3570 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 48 44 E 5 5800 5528 1958 Blue 5
9 AM Thu 52 49 E 5 6820 6073 2503 Blue 10
10 AM Thu 53 52 E 7 8141 6792 3222 Blue 13
11 AM Thu 55 54 E 7 8783 7405 3835 White 15
12 Noon Thu 56 56 E 7 9211 8647 5077 White 17
1 PM Thu 60 59 E 6 9676 9267 5697 Blue 20
2 PM Thu 61 59 E 6 9676 9267 5697 Blue 20
3 PM Thu 60 57 E 6 9420 9012 5442 Blue 18
4 PM Thu 60 56 NE 4 9211 8647 5077 White 17
5 PM Thu 57 52 NE 4 8141 6792 3222 Blue 13
6 PM Thu 54 49 NE 4 6820 6073 2503 Blue 10
7 PM Thu 52 47 E 4 6338 5792 2222 Blue 8
8 PM Thu 51 46 E 4 6095 5704 2134 Blue 7
9 PM Thu 50 45 E 4 5888 5616 2046 Blue 6
10 PM Thu 50 45 E 4 5888 5616 2046 Blue 6
11 PM Thu 49 44 E 4 5800 5528 1958 Blue 5
12 Midnight Fri 49 44 E 4 5800 5528 1958 Blue 5
1 AM Fri 48 43 E 3 5711 5217 1647 Blue 4
2 AM Fri 47 42 E 3 5623 3570 0 Blue 3
3 AM Fri 47 42 E 3 5623 3570 0 Blue 3
4 AM Fri 46 41 E 3 5535 3570 0 Blue 2
5 AM Fri 46 41 E 3 5535 3570 0 Blue 2
6 AM Fri 46 41 E 3 5535 3570 0 Blue 2
7 AM Fri 48 43 E 3 5711 5217 1647 Blue 4
8 AM Fri 53 49 E 3 6820 6073 2503 Blue 10
9 AM Fri 56 53 E 3 8570 7030 3460 White 14
10 AM Fri 57 55 W 3 8996 8040 4470 White 16
11 AM Fri 58 57 W 3 9420 9012 5442 Blue 18
12 Noon Fri 59 58 W 3 9548 9139 5569 Blue 19
1 PM Fri 62 61 W 3 10037 9521 5951 Blue 22
2 PM Fri 63 61 W 3 10037 9521 5951 Blue 22
3 PM Fri 62 59 W 3 9676 9267 5697 Blue 20
4 PM Fri 62 57 W 6 9420 9012 5442 Blue 18
5 PM Fri 58 53 W 6 8570 7030 3460 White 14
6 PM Fri 55 50 W 6 7059 6314 2744 Blue 11
7 PM Fri 53 48 W 6 6579 5881 2311 Blue 9
8 PM Fri 52 47 W 6 6338 5792 2222 Blue 8
9 PM Fri 50 45 W 6 5888 5616 2046 Blue 6
10 PM Fri 51 46 NW 5 6095 5704 2134 Blue 7
11 PM Fri 50 45 NW 5 5888 5616 2046 Blue 6
12 Midnight Sat 49 44 NW 5 5800 5528 1958 Blue 5
1 AM Sat 48 43 NW 5 5711 5217 1647 Blue 4
2 AM Sat 47 42 NW 5 5623 3570 0 Blue 3
3 AM Sat 47 42 NW 5 5623 3570 0 Blue 3
4 AM Sat 46 41 W 2 5535 3570 0 Blue 2
5 AM Sat 47 42 W 2 5623 3570 0 Blue 3
6 AM Sat 46 41 W 2 5535 3570 0 Blue 2
7 AM Sat 47 42 W 2 5623 3570 0 Blue 3
8 AM Sat 51 47 W 2 6338 5792 2222 Blue 8
9 AM Sat 52 49 W 2 6820 6073 2503 Blue 10
10 AM Sat 53 51 W 7 7496 6553 2983 Blue 12
11 AM Sat 54 53 W 7 8570 7030 3460 White 14
12 Noon Sat 55 54 W 7 8783 7405 3835 White 15
1 PM Sat 56 55 W 7 8996 8040 4470 White 16
2 PM Sat 57 55 W 7 8996 8040 4470 White 16
3 PM Sat 56 52 W 7 8141 6792 3222 Blue 13
4 PM Sat 56 51 W 11 7496 6553 2983 Blue 12
5 PM Sat 54 49 W 11 6820 6073 2503 Blue 10
6 PM Sat 52 47 W 11 6338 5792 2222 Blue 8
7 PM Sat 51 46 W 11 6095 5704 2134 Blue 7
8 PM Sat 50 45 W 11 5888 5616 2046 Blue 6
9 PM Sat 49 44 W 11 5800 5528 1958 Blue 5
10 PM Sat 50 45 SW 2 5888 5616 2046 Blue 6
11 PM Sat 49 44 SW 2 5800 5528 1958 Blue 5
12 Midnight Sun 49 44 SW 2 5800 5528 1958 Blue 5
1 AM Sun 48 43 SW 2 5711 5217 1647 Blue 4
2 AM Sun 48 43 SW 2 5711 5217 1647 Blue 4
3 AM Sun 47 42 SW 2 5623 3570 0 Blue 3
4 AM Sun 47 42 E 2 5623 3570 0 Blue 3
5 AM Sun 47 42 E 2 5623 3570 0 Blue 3
6 AM Sun 47 42 E 2 5623 3570 0 Blue 3
7 AM Sun 50 45 E 2 5888 5616 2046 Blue 6
8 AM Sun 55 51 E 2 7496 6553 2983 Blue 12
9 AM Sun 59 56 E 2 9211 8647 5077 White 17
10 AM Sun 60 58 E 4 9548 9139 5569 Blue 19
11 AM Sun 61 60 E 4 9804 9394 5824 Blue 21
12 Noon Sun 63 62 E 4 10299 9649 6079 Blue 23
1 PM Sun 66 65 E 4 11077 10237 6667 Blue 26
2 PM Sun 67 65 E 4 11077 10237 6667 Blue 26
3 PM Sun 66 63 E 4 10560 9776 6206 Blue 24
4 PM Sun 66 61 NW 4 10037 9521 5951 Blue 22
5 PM Sun 63 58 NW 4 9548 9139 5569 Blue 19
6 PM Sun 61 56 NW 4 9211 8647 5077 White 17
7 PM Sun 59 54 NW 4 8783 7405 3835 White 15
8 PM Sun 58 53 NW 4 8570 7030 3460 White 14
9 PM Sun 56 51 NW 4 7496 6553 2983 Blue 12
10 PM Sun 57 52 E 6 8141 6792 3222 Blue 13
11 PM Sun 56 51 E 6 7496 6553 2983 Blue 12
12 Midnight Mon 56 51 E 6 7496 6553 2983 Blue 12
1 AM Mon 55 50 E 6 7059 6314 2744 Blue 11
2 AM Mon 54 49 E 6 6820 6073 2503 Blue 10
3 AM Mon 54 49 E 6 6820 6073 2503 Blue 10
4 AM Mon 53 48 E 8 6579 5881 2311 Blue 9
5 AM Mon 53 48 E 8 6579 5881 2311 Blue 9
6 AM Mon 53 48 E 8 6579 5881 2311 Blue 9
7 AM Mon 55 50 E 8 7059 6314 2744 Blue 11
8 AM Mon 61 57 E 8 9420 9012 5442 Blue 18
9 AM Mon 64 61 E 8 10037 9521 5951 Blue 22
10 AM Mon 65 64 E 7 10819 9977 6407 Blue 25
11 AM Mon 67 67 E 7 11515 10754 7184 White 28
12 Noon Mon 68 68 E 7 11718 11009 7439 White 29
1 PM Mon 71 70 E 7 12123 12123 8553 White 31
2 PM Mon 72 70 E 7 12123 12123 8553 White 31
3 PM Mon 71 68 E 7 11718 11009 7439 White 29
4 PM Mon 71 67 E 3 11515 10754 7184 White 28
5 PM Mon 67 62 E 3 10299 9649 6079 Blue 23
6 PM Mon 64 59 E 3 9676 9267 5697 Blue 20
7 PM Mon 62 57 E 3 9420 9012 5442 Blue 18
8 PM Mon 61 56 E 3 9211 8647 5077 White 17
9 PM Mon 59 54 E 3 8783 7405 3835 White 15
10 PM Mon 60 55 E 5 8996 8040 4470 White 16
11 PM Mon 59 54 E 5 8783 7405 3835 White 15
12 Midnight Tue 58 53 E 5 8570 7030 3460 White 14
1 AM Tue 57 52 E 5 8141 6792 3222 Blue 13
2 AM Tue 56 51 E 5 7496 6553 2983 Blue 12
3 AM Tue 56 51 E 5 7496 6553 2983 Blue 12
4 AM Tue 55 50 E 6 7059 6314 2744 Blue 11
5 AM Tue 56 51 E 6 7496 6553 2983 Blue 12
6 AM Tue 55 50 E 6 7059 6314 2744 Blue 11

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst