Detailed Predictions for: Soboba
Launch Altitude (f): 2260
LZ Altitude (f): 1520
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

17 NOV 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Sat 45 40 E 1 1565 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 46 41 E 1 1565 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 46 41 E 2 1565 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 47 42 E 2 1565 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 55 50 SE 1 1565 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 60 56 SW 1 1565 2260 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 64 61 SW 5 2038 2260 0 Blue 1
11 AM Sat 67 64 SW 5 2687 2260 0 Blue 4
12 Noon Sat 69 66 SW 5 3095 2421 161 Blue 6
1 PM Sat 71 68 W 7 3655 2879 619 Blue 8
2 PM Sat 71 67 W 7 3406 2681 421 Blue 7
3 PM Sat 71 66 W 7 3095 2421 161 Blue 6
4 PM Sat 70 65 SW 8 2887 2260 0 Blue 5
5 PM Sat 64 59 SW 7 1687 2260 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 60 55 S 5 1565 2260 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 57 52 SE 5 1565 2260 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 54 49 SE 3 1565 2260 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 52 47 SE 3 1565 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 50 45 E 2 1565 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 49 44 E 2 1565 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 48 43 E 2 1565 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 48 43 E 1 1565 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 47 42 E 2 1565 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 47 42 NE 0 1565 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 46 41 NE 2 1565 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 47 42 NE 2 1565 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 46 41 NE 2 1565 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 48 43 E 3 1565 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 56 51 SE 3 1565 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 61 56 SE 3 1565 2260 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 65 61 E 7 2038 2260 0 Blue 1
11 AM Sun 68 65 E 10 2887 2260 0 Blue 5
12 Noon Sun 70 67 NE 14 3406 2681 421 Blue 7
1 PM Sun 72 68 NE 15 3655 2879 619 Blue 8
2 PM Sun 72 68 NE 15 3655 2879 619 Blue 8
3 PM Sun 72 67 NE 16 3406 2681 421 Blue 7
4 PM Sun 71 66 NE 18 3095 2421 161 Blue 6
5 PM Sun 66 61 NE 18 2038 2260 0 Blue 1
6 PM Sun 62 57 NE 18 1565 2260 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 60 55 NE 22 1565 2260 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 57 52 NE 22 1565 2260 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 56 51 NE 21 1565 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 55 50 E 18 1565 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 54 49 E 17 1565 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 52 47 E 17 1565 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 53 48 E 16 1565 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 52 47 E 17 1565 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 52 47 E 17 1565 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 51 46 E 16 1565 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 52 47 E 16 1565 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 51 46 E 16 1565 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 53 48 E 15 1565 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 59 54 E 15 1565 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 63 59 E 15 1687 2260 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 66 62 NE 16 2166 2260 0 Blue 2
11 AM Mon 68 64 NE 16 2687 2260 0 Blue 4
12 Noon Mon 70 66 NE 16 3095 2421 161 Blue 6
1 PM Mon 72 68 NE 21 3655 2879 619 Blue 8
2 PM Mon 71 67 NE 21 3406 2681 421 Blue 7
3 PM Mon 71 66 NE 21 3095 2421 161 Blue 6
4 PM Mon 70 65 NE 22 2887 2260 0 Blue 5
5 PM Mon 64 59 NE 22 1687 2260 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 61 56 NE 22 1565 2260 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 58 53 E 5 1565 2260 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 55 50 E 5 1565 2260 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 54 49 E 5 1565 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 52 47 E 7 1565 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 51 46 E 7 1565 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 50 45 E 7 1565 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 50 45 E 8 1565 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 49 44 E 8 1565 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 49 44 E 8 1565 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 48 43 E 8 1565 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 48 43 E 8 1565 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 48 43 E 8 1565 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 50 45 E 9 1565 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 56 51 E 9 1565 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 59 54 E 9 1565 2260 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 62 59 SW 5 1687 2260 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 64 61 SW 5 2038 2260 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Tue 66 63 SW 5 2428 2260 0 Blue 3
1 PM Tue 68 65 SW 6 2887 2260 0 Blue 5
2 PM Tue 68 64 SW 6 2687 2260 0 Blue 4
3 PM Tue 68 63 SW 6 2428 2260 0 Blue 3
4 PM Tue 66 61 SW 6 2038 2260 0 Blue 1
5 PM Tue 61 56 SW 6 1565 2260 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 58 53 SW 6 1565 2260 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 55 50 SE 5 1565 2260 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 52 47 SE 5 1565 2260 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 51 46 SE 5 1565 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 50 45 E 0 1565 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 49 44 E 0 1565 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 48 43 E 0 1565 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 48 43 NE 2 1565 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 47 42 NE 2 1565 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 47 42 NE 2 1565 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 46 41 NE 2 1565 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 46 41 NE 2 1565 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 46 41 NE 2 1565 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 47 42 E 6 1565 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 53 48 E 6 1565 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 57 53 E 6 1565 2260 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 59 55 SW 0 1565 2260 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 61 57 SW 0 1565 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 63 59 SW 0 1687 2260 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 65 61 SW 2 2038 2260 0 Blue 1
2 PM Wed 65 61 SW 2 2038 2260 0 Blue 1
3 PM Wed 65 60 SW 2 1904 2260 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 63 58 W 1 1565 2260 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 60 55 W 1 1565 2260 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 57 52 W 1 1565 2260 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 55 50 S 8 1565 2260 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 53 48 S 8 1565 2260 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 52 47 S 8 1565 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 51 46 S 6 1565 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 50 45 S 6 1565 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 49 44 S 6 1565 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 49 44 SE 5 1565 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 49 44 SE 5 1565 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 49 44 SE 5 1565 2260 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 48 43 E 2 1565 2260 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 48 43 E 2 1565 2260 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 48 43 E 2 1565 2260 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 49 44 E 3 1565 2260 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 54 49 E 3 1565 2260 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 58 53 E 3 1565 2260 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 60 55 SW 5 1565 2260 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 62 58 SW 5 1565 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 63 59 SW 5 1687 2260 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 65 61 W 8 2038 2260 0 Blue 1
2 PM Thu 65 60 W 8 1904 2260 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 64 59 W 8 1687 2260 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 63 58 NW 8 1565 2260 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 59 54 NW 8 1565 2260 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 56 51 NW 8 1565 2260 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 54 49 N 7 1565 2260 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 52 47 N 7 1565 2260 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 50 45 N 7 1565 2260 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 49 44 NE 1 1565 2260 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 48 43 NE 1 1565 2260 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 47 42 NE 1 1565 2260 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 47 42 E 2 1565 2260 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 47 42 E 2 1565 2260 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 47 42 E 2 1565 2260 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst