Detailed Predictions for: Soboba
Launch Altitude (f): 3570
LZ Altitude (f): 1520
Sounding

Station:

 KNKX

Date/Time:

 4 FEB 2012

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
4 AM Sat 41 36 E 23 2592 3570 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 41 36 E 23 2592 3570 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 42 37 E 23 2592 3570 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 43 38 E 23 2592 3570 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 50 45 E 23 2592 3570 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 55 51 E 23 2592 3570 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 56 53 E 25 3925 3570 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 56 53 E 25 3925 3570 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 58 56 E 25 7167 3888 318 Blue 2
1 PM Sat 59 56 E 23 7167 3888 318 Blue 2
2 PM Sat 59 56 E 23 7167 3888 318 Blue 2
3 PM Sat 60 56 E 23 7167 3888 318 Blue 2
4 PM Sat 58 53 NE 21 3925 3570 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 54 49 NE 21 2592 3570 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 51 46 NE 21 2592 3570 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 50 45 NE 21 2592 3570 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 50 45 NE 21 2592 3570 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 49 44 NE 21 2592 3570 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 49 44 E 24 2592 3570 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 48 43 E 24 2592 3570 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 48 43 E 24 2592 3570 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 47 42 E 23 2592 3570 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 48 43 E 23 2592 3570 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 47 42 E 23 2592 3570 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 47 42 E 24 2592 3570 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 47 42 E 24 2592 3570 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 48 43 E 24 2592 3570 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 48 43 E 25 2592 3570 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 53 48 E 25 2592 3570 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 56 52 E 25 2592 3570 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 57 54 E 20 5982 3570 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 57 54 E 20 5982 3570 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 59 56 E 20 7167 3888 318 Blue 2
1 PM Sun 59 56 E 17 7167 3888 318 Blue 2
2 PM Sun 59 55 E 17 6757 3570 0 Blue 1
3 PM Sun 60 56 E 17 7167 3888 318 Blue 2
4 PM Sun 58 53 NE 17 3925 3570 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 54 49 NE 17 2592 3570 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 50 45 NE 17 2592 3570 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 50 45 NE 17 2592 3570 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 49 44 NE 17 2592 3570 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 48 43 NE 17 2592 3570 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 48 43 NE 10 2592 3570 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 48 43 NE 10 2592 3570 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 47 42 NE 10 2592 3570 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 46 41 E 12 2592 3570 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 47 42 E 12 2592 3570 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 46 41 E 12 2592 3570 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 46 41 E 9 2592 3570 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 46 41 E 9 2592 3570 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 47 42 E 9 2592 3570 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 47 42 E 9 2592 3570 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 52 47 E 9 2592 3570 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 56 52 E 9 2592 3570 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 57 53 W 2 3925 3570 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 57 54 W 2 5982 3570 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 58 55 W 2 6757 3570 0 Blue 1
1 PM Mon 59 56 W 2 7167 3888 318 Blue 2
2 PM Mon 59 55 W 2 6757 3570 0 Blue 1
3 PM Mon 60 55 W 2 6757 3570 0 Blue 1
4 PM Mon 58 53 W 2 3925 3570 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 54 49 W 2 2592 3570 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 51 46 W 2 2592 3570 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 50 45 W 2 2592 3570 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 50 45 W 2 2592 3570 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 49 44 W 2 2592 3570 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 49 44 E 7 2592 3570 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 48 43 E 7 2592 3570 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 48 43 E 7 2592 3570 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 47 42 E 7 2592 3570 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 48 43 E 7 2592 3570 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 47 42 E 7 2592 3570 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 47 42 N 0 2592 3570 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 47 42 N 0 2592 3570 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 47 42 N 0 2592 3570 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 48 43 N 0 2592 3570 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 51 46 N 0 2592 3570 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 53 48 N 0 2592 3570 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 54 50 E 8 2592 3570 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 54 50 E 8 2592 3570 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 55 51 E 8 2592 3570 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 55 51 E 8 2592 3570 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 55 51 E 8 2592 3570 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 56 51 E 8 2592 3570 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 54 49 SW 3 2592 3570 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 51 46 SW 3 2592 3570 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 48 43 SW 3 2592 3570 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 47 42 SW 3 2592 3570 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 47 42 SW 3 2592 3570 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 46 41 SW 3 2592 3570 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 45 40 N 5 2592 3570 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 45 40 N 5 2592 3570 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 45 40 N 5 2592 3570 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 44 39 N 5 2592 3570 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 45 40 N 5 2592 3570 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 44 39 N 5 2592 3570 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 44 39 NE 6 2592 3570 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 44 39 NE 6 2592 3570 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 45 40 NE 6 2592 3570 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 45 40 NE 6 2592 3570 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 50 45 NE 6 2592 3570 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 53 48 NE 6 2592 3570 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 53 49 NE 7 2592 3570 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 53 49 NE 7 2592 3570 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 55 51 NE 7 2592 3570 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 55 51 NE 7 2592 3570 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 55 51 NE 7 2592 3570 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 56 51 NE 7 2592 3570 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 55 50 NE 13 2592 3570 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 52 47 NE 13 2592 3570 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 50 45 NE 13 2592 3570 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 50 45 NE 13 2592 3570 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 50 45 NE 13 2592 3570 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 49 44 NE 13 2592 3570 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 49 44 NE 12 2592 3570 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 49 44 NE 12 2592 3570 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 49 44 NE 12 2592 3570 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 48 43 NE 12 2592 3570 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 49 44 NE 12 2592 3570 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 48 43 NE 12 2592 3570 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 48 43 NE 12 2592 3570 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 48 43 NE 12 2592 3570 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 49 44 NE 12 2592 3570 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 49 44 NE 12 2592 3570 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 55 50 NE 12 2592 3570 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 59 55 NE 12 6757 3570 0 Blue 1
10 AM Thu 60 57 NE 8 7267 5915 2345 Blue 3
11 AM Thu 60 58 NE 8 7367 6675 3105 Blue 4
12 Noon Thu 61 59 NE 8 7467 7155 3585 Blue 5
1 PM Thu 62 60 NE 8 7566 7254 3684 Blue 6
2 PM Thu 62 59 NE 8 7467 7155 3585 Blue 5
3 PM Thu 63 59 NE 8 7467 7155 3585 Blue 5
4 PM Thu 61 56 N 2 7167 3888 318 Blue 2
5 PM Thu 58 53 N 2 3925 3570 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 55 50 N 2 2592 3570 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 55 50 N 2 2592 3570 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 54 49 N 2 2592 3570 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 53 48 N 2 2592 3570 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 53 48 NE 9 2592 3570 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 53 48 NE 9 2592 3570 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 53 48 NE 9 2592 3570 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 52 47 NE 9 2592 3570 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 53 48 NE 9 2592 3570 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 52 47 NE 9 2592 3570 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst