Detailed Predictions for: Winchester
Launch Altitude (f): 1850
LZ Altitude (f): 1600
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

20 JUL 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Fri 67 62 NW 1 1352 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 68 63 NW 1 1391 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 71 66 W 1 1571 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 74 70 SW 2 1872 1850 0 Blue 2
9 AM Fri 79 76 SW 2 2498 2224 374 Blue 8
10 AM Fri 84 83 SW 3 3847 3123 1273 Blue 15
11 AM Fri 88 88 SW 7 4920 4328 2478 Blue 20
12 Noon Fri 92 93 SW 7 6335 5483 3633 Blue 25
1 PM Fri 94 95 SW 8 6776 6026 4176 Blue 27
2 PM Fri 94 94 SW 13 6605 5755 3905 Blue 26
3 PM Fri 95 94 S 14 6605 5755 3905 Blue 26
4 PM Fri 94 92 SW 14 6064 5209 3359 Blue 24
5 PM Fri 91 87 SW 14 4657 4107 2257 Blue 19
6 PM Fri 87 82 SW 14 3565 2943 1093 Blue 14
7 PM Fri 82 77 SW 13 2589 2314 464 Blue 9
8 PM Fri 78 73 S 8 2225 1871 21 Blue 5
9 PM Fri 74 69 S 7 1786 1850 0 Blue 1
10 PM Fri 72 67 SW 7 1632 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 70 65 SW 5 1511 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 69 64 SW 5 1451 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 68 63 SW 3 1391 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 67 62 SW 2 1352 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 66 61 SW 2 1352 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 65 60 SW 2 1352 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 65 60 NW 2 1352 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 66 61 NW 2 1352 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 68 63 N 1 1391 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 72 68 N 1 1700 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 77 74 NW 1 2316 1979 129 Blue 6
10 AM Sat 83 82 NW 2 3565 2943 1093 Blue 14
11 AM Sat 88 89 W 5 5240 4485 2635 Blue 21
12 Noon Sat 93 95 W 5 6776 6026 4176 Blue 27
1 PM Sat 96 98 W 5 8131 6753 4903 Blue 30
2 PM Sat 97 99 SW 9 8673 6894 5044 Blue 31
3 PM Sat 98 98 SW 9 8131 6753 4903 Blue 30
4 PM Sat 95 94 SW 10 6605 5755 3905 Blue 26
5 PM Sat 91 88 SW 12 4920 4328 2478 Blue 20
6 PM Sat 87 83 SW 10 3847 3123 1273 Blue 15
7 PM Sat 82 77 SW 10 2589 2314 464 Blue 9
8 PM Sat 77 72 SW 8 2106 1850 0 Blue 4
9 PM Sat 74 69 SW 7 1786 1850 0 Blue 1
10 PM Sat 71 66 SW 6 1571 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 69 64 SW 3 1451 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 68 63 SW 3 1391 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 68 63 SW 2 1391 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 67 62 NW 2 1352 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 66 61 N 2 1352 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 65 60 N 2 1352 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 65 60 N 2 1352 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 66 61 N 2 1352 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 68 63 N 1 1391 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 72 68 NW 1 1700 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 77 74 W 1 2316 1979 129 Blue 6
10 AM Sun 82 81 W 2 3312 2763 913 Blue 13
11 AM Sun 88 89 W 6 5240 4485 2635 Blue 21
12 Noon Sun 93 95 W 7 6776 6026 4176 Blue 27
1 PM Sun 97 100 W 7 9006 7357 5507 Blue 32
2 PM Sun 99 101 W 7 9336 8001 6151 Blue 33
3 PM Sun 99 100 W 7 9006 7357 5507 Blue 32
4 PM Sun 99 98 W 7 8131 6753 4903 Blue 30
5 PM Sun 97 94 W 7 6605 5755 3905 Blue 26
6 PM Sun 93 89 W 8 5240 4485 2635 Blue 21
7 PM Sun 88 83 SW 8 3847 3123 1273 Blue 15
8 PM Sun 84 79 SW 8 2951 2495 645 Blue 11
9 PM Sun 80 75 S 7 2407 2104 254 Blue 7
10 PM Sun 77 72 S 5 2106 1850 0 Blue 4
11 PM Sun 75 70 S 3 1872 1850 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Mon 74 69 SW 2 1786 1850 0 Blue 1
1 AM Mon 73 68 SW 2 1700 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 72 67 W 1 1632 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 71 66 W 1 1571 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 70 65 SW 2 1511 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 69 64 SW 2 1451 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 70 65 SW 2 1511 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 73 68 SW 2 1700 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 77 73 W 1 2225 1871 21 Blue 5
9 AM Mon 84 81 W 1 3312 2763 913 Blue 13
10 AM Mon 91 90 W 1 5517 4642 2792 Blue 22
11 AM Mon 98 99 W 6 8673 6894 5044 Blue 31
12 Noon Mon 102 104 W 6 10332 9255 7405 Blue 36
1 PM Mon 105 108 W 6 11771 10573 8723 White 40
2 PM Mon 106 108 SW 10 11771 10573 8723 White 40
3 PM Mon 106 107 SW 10 11566 10238 8388 White 39
4 PM Mon 105 104 SW 10 10332 9255 7405 Blue 36
5 PM Mon 103 100 SW 9 9006 7357 5507 Blue 32
6 PM Mon 100 96 SW 9 6918 6295 4445 Blue 28
7 PM Mon 95 90 SW 9 5517 4642 2792 Blue 22
8 PM Mon 90 85 S 9 4342 3547 1697 Blue 17
9 PM Mon 85 80 S 9 3131 2586 736 Blue 12
10 PM Mon 80 75 S 9 2407 2104 254 Blue 7
11 PM Mon 76 71 S 2 1980 1850 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Tue 75 70 S 2 1872 1850 0 Blue 2
1 AM Tue 74 69 S 2 1786 1850 0 Blue 1
2 AM Tue 74 69 W 2 1786 1850 0 Blue 1
3 AM Tue 74 69 W 2 1786 1850 0 Blue 1
4 AM Tue 72 67 W 2 1632 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 72 67 SW 2 1632 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 73 68 SW 2 1700 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 76 71 SW 2 1980 1850 0 Blue 3
8 AM Tue 80 76 SW 3 2498 2224 374 Blue 8
9 AM Tue 86 83 SW 3 3847 3123 1273 Blue 15
10 AM Tue 93 92 SW 3 6064 5209 3359 Blue 24
11 AM Tue 99 100 W 6 9006 7357 5507 Blue 32
12 Noon Tue 104 106 W 6 11014 9904 8054 Blue 38
1 PM Tue 106 108 W 6 11771 10573 8723 White 40
2 PM Tue 108 110 S 13 12181 11267 9417 White 42
3 PM Tue 108 109 S 13 11976 10912 9062 White 41
4 PM Tue 107 106 S 13 11014 9904 8054 Blue 38
5 PM Tue 106 103 SW 10 9995 8928 7078 Blue 35
6 PM Tue 102 98 SW 10 8131 6753 4903 Blue 30
7 PM Tue 98 93 SW 10 6335 5483 3633 Blue 25
8 PM Tue 93 88 S 9 4920 4328 2478 Blue 20
9 PM Tue 89 84 S 9 4129 3302 1452 Blue 16
10 PM Tue 85 80 S 9 3131 2586 736 Blue 12
11 PM Tue 82 77 S 2 2589 2314 464 Blue 9
12 Midnight Wed 80 75 S 2 2407 2104 254 Blue 7
1 AM Wed 80 75 S 2 2407 2104 254 Blue 7
2 AM Wed 78 73 SW 5 2225 1871 21 Blue 5
3 AM Wed 76 71 SW 5 1980 1850 0 Blue 3
4 AM Wed 75 70 SW 5 1872 1850 0 Blue 2
5 AM Wed 74 69 SW 1 1786 1850 0 Blue 1
6 AM Wed 75 70 SW 1 1872 1850 0 Blue 2
7 AM Wed 79 74 SW 1 2316 1979 129 Blue 6
8 AM Wed 83 79 SW 1 2951 2495 645 Blue 11
9 AM Wed 89 86 SW 1 4500 3828 1978 Blue 18
10 AM Wed 95 94 SW 1 6605 5755 3905 Blue 26
11 AM Wed 100 101 W 6 9336 8001 6151 Blue 33
12 Noon Wed 104 106 W 6 11014 9904 8054 Blue 38
1 PM Wed 107 110 W 6 12181 11267 9417 White 42
2 PM Wed 109 111 S 14 12384 12384 10534 White 43
3 PM Wed 109 110 S 14 12181 11267 9417 White 42
4 PM Wed 108 107 S 14 11566 10238 8388 White 39
5 PM Wed 104 101 SW 12 9336 8001 6151 Blue 33
6 PM Wed 100 96 SW 12 6918 6295 4445 Blue 28
7 PM Wed 95 90 SW 12 5517 4642 2792 Blue 22
8 PM Wed 90 85 S 9 4342 3547 1697 Blue 17
9 PM Wed 86 81 S 9 3312 2763 913 Blue 13
10 PM Wed 83 78 S 9 2770 2405 555 Blue 10
11 PM Wed 81 76 S 3 2498 2224 374 Blue 8
12 Midnight Thu 79 74 S 3 2316 1979 129 Blue 6
1 AM Thu 78 73 S 3 2225 1871 21 Blue 5
2 AM Thu 77 72 SW 5 2106 1850 0 Blue 4
3 AM Thu 76 71 SW 5 1980 1850 0 Blue 3
4 AM Thu 74 69 SW 5 1786 1850 0 Blue 1

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst