Detailed Predictions for: Winchester
Launch Altitude (f): 1850
LZ Altitude (f): 1600
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

25 MAR 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Mon 46 41 NW 2 1463 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 44 39 NW 2 1463 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 44 39 N 1 1463 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 48 43 E 0 1463 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 55 51 S 0 1463 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 61 59 E 1 2097 1850 0 Blue 1
11 AM Mon 67 67 SW 2 3116 2700 850 Blue 9
12 Noon Mon 71 72 SW 3 3880 3333 1483 Blue 14
1 PM Mon 74 75 SW 5 4803 3867 2017 Blue 17
2 PM Mon 75 75 SW 7 4803 3867 2017 Blue 17
3 PM Mon 76 75 SW 7 4803 3867 2017 Blue 17
4 PM Mon 75 72 SW 8 3880 3333 1483 Blue 14
5 PM Mon 76 72 SW 8 3880 3333 1483 Blue 14
6 PM Mon 72 67 SW 8 3116 2700 850 Blue 9
7 PM Mon 68 63 SW 7 2527 2199 349 Blue 5
8 PM Mon 62 57 S 5 1883 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 58 53 S 3 1463 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 56 51 SW 2 1463 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 54 49 W 2 1463 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 52 47 W 2 1463 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 50 45 W 1 1463 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 50 45 W 2 1463 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 48 43 NW 2 1463 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 48 43 NW 1 1463 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 47 42 N 1 1463 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 46 41 N 1 1463 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 45 40 NE 1 1463 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 49 44 NE 1 1463 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 56 52 N 1 1463 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 61 58 W 1 1993 1850 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 66 64 W 2 2704 2319 469 Blue 6
12 Noon Tue 70 68 W 3 3220 2816 966 Blue 10
1 PM Tue 73 71 W 5 3702 3214 1364 Blue 13
2 PM Tue 74 72 W 6 3880 3333 1483 Blue 14
3 PM Tue 75 72 W 7 3880 3333 1483 Blue 14
4 PM Tue 74 70 W 8 3522 3111 1261 Blue 12
5 PM Tue 75 70 W 9 3522 3111 1261 Blue 12
6 PM Tue 72 67 W 8 3116 2700 850 Blue 9
7 PM Tue 67 62 W 6 2441 2095 245 Blue 4
8 PM Tue 62 57 SW 3 1883 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 58 53 SW 2 1463 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 56 51 S 2 1463 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 53 48 SE 1 1463 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 52 47 E 1 1463 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 50 45 N 1 1463 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 49 44 NW 1 1463 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 48 43 NW 1 1463 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 47 42 W 1 1463 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 47 42 W 2 1463 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 46 41 W 2 1463 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 45 40 SW 2 1463 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 48 43 SW 3 1463 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 53 48 SW 3 1463 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 57 53 W 3 1463 1850 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 60 57 W 5 1883 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 64 62 W 6 2441 2095 245 Blue 4
1 PM Wed 65 63 W 8 2527 2199 349 Blue 5
2 PM Wed 66 64 W 10 2704 2319 469 Blue 6
3 PM Wed 67 64 W 12 2704 2319 469 Blue 6
4 PM Wed 66 62 W 13 2441 2095 245 Blue 4
5 PM Wed 67 63 W 13 2527 2199 349 Blue 5
6 PM Wed 64 59 W 12 2097 1850 0 Blue 1
7 PM Wed 61 56 W 10 1772 1850 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 57 52 W 8 1463 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 54 49 SW 7 1463 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 52 47 SW 6 1463 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 50 45 S 5 1463 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 49 44 S 5 1463 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 48 43 S 5 1463 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 47 42 S 5 1463 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 46 41 S 5 1463 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 46 41 S 3 1463 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 45 40 S 2 1463 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 44 39 S 2 1463 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 44 39 S 2 1463 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 47 42 SW 3 1463 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 52 48 SW 3 1463 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 56 53 SW 3 1463 1850 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 60 59 SW 5 2097 1850 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Thu 64 64 SW 5 2704 2319 469 Blue 6
1 PM Thu 65 65 SW 5 2823 2439 589 Blue 7
2 PM Thu 66 66 W 9 3002 2524 674 Blue 8
3 PM Thu 67 66 W 9 3002 2524 674 Blue 8
4 PM Thu 67 64 W 9 2704 2319 469 Blue 6
5 PM Thu 67 63 NW 12 2527 2199 349 Blue 5
6 PM Thu 64 59 NW 12 2097 1850 0 Blue 1
7 PM Thu 60 55 NW 12 1661 1850 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 56 51 SW 5 1463 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 53 48 SW 5 1463 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 52 47 SW 5 1463 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 50 45 SE 5 1463 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 48 43 SE 5 1463 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 47 42 SE 5 1463 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 46 41 S 2 1463 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 46 41 S 2 1463 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 45 40 S 2 1463 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 44 39 SW 3 1463 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 44 39 SW 3 1463 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 43 38 SW 3 1463 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 46 41 W 2 1463 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 53 49 W 2 1463 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 58 56 W 2 1772 1850 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 63 62 W 3 2441 2095 245 Blue 4
12 Noon Fri 67 67 W 3 3116 2700 850 Blue 9
1 PM Fri 69 69 W 3 3343 2994 1144 Blue 11
2 PM Fri 70 70 NW 8 3522 3111 1261 Blue 12
3 PM Fri 71 70 NW 8 3522 3111 1261 Blue 12
4 PM Fri 71 68 NW 8 3220 2816 966 Blue 10
5 PM Fri 71 67 NW 12 3116 2700 850 Blue 9
6 PM Fri 68 63 NW 12 2527 2199 349 Blue 5
7 PM Fri 64 59 NW 12 2097 1850 0 Blue 1
8 PM Fri 59 54 S 9 1550 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 56 51 S 9 1463 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 54 49 S 9 1463 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 52 47 SE 6 1463 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 50 45 SE 6 1463 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 48 43 SE 6 1463 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 48 43 NW 5 1463 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 47 42 NW 5 1463 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 46 41 NW 5 1463 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 46 41 NE 5 1463 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 44 39 NE 5 1463 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 44 39 NE 5 1463 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 48 43 NE 5 1463 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 54 50 NE 5 1463 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 59 57 NE 5 1883 1850 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 64 63 NE 9 2527 2199 349 Blue 5
12 Noon Sat 69 69 NE 9 3343 2994 1144 Blue 11
1 PM Sat 71 71 NE 9 3702 3214 1364 Blue 13
2 PM Sat 72 72 NE 15 3880 3333 1483 Blue 14
3 PM Sat 73 72 NE 15 3880 3333 1483 Blue 14
4 PM Sat 73 70 NE 15 3522 3111 1261 Blue 12
5 PM Sat 73 69 NE 16 3343 2994 1144 Blue 11
6 PM Sat 70 65 NE 16 2823 2439 589 Blue 7
7 PM Sat 65 60 NE 16 2201 1882 32 Blue 2
8 PM Sat 60 55 NE 10 1661 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 56 51 NE 10 1463 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 54 49 NE 10 1463 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 52 47 NE 6 1463 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 50 45 NE 6 1463 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 49 44 NE 6 1463 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 48 43 NE 9 1463 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 47 42 NE 9 1463 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 46 41 NE 9 1463 1850 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst