Detailed Predictions for: Winchester
Launch Altitude (f): 1850
LZ Altitude (f): 1600
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

17 NOV 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Sat 40 35 W 1 1565 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 39 34 NW 0 1565 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 39 34 NE 1 1565 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 41 36 NE 1 1565 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 51 46 NE 1 1565 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 57 53 SE 0 1565 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 61 58 SW 2 1565 1850 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 64 61 SW 3 1952 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 68 65 SW 3 2711 2049 199 Blue 4
1 PM Sat 71 68 SW 6 3450 2705 855 Blue 7
2 PM Sat 72 68 SW 7 3450 2705 855 Blue 7
3 PM Sat 71 66 SW 8 2915 2189 339 Blue 5
4 PM Sat 68 63 SW 10 2192 1850 0 Blue 2
5 PM Sat 64 59 SW 8 1565 1850 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 60 55 SW 8 1565 1850 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 57 52 S 3 1565 1850 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 54 49 S 2 1565 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 52 47 S 2 1565 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 49 44 S 1 1565 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 46 41 W 0 1565 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 45 40 NW 1 1565 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 44 39 N 1 1565 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 44 39 N 1 1565 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 42 37 N 1 1565 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 42 37 NE 2 1565 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 41 36 NE 0 1565 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 41 36 NW 1 1565 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 43 38 NW 1 1565 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 54 49 N 1 1565 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 60 55 N 1 1565 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 64 60 W 3 1714 1850 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 67 64 W 3 2472 1948 98 Blue 3
12 Noon Sun 71 68 W 2 3450 2705 855 Blue 7
1 PM Sun 74 71 W 0 4231 3436 1586 Blue 10
2 PM Sun 75 71 SW 2 4231 3436 1586 Blue 10
3 PM Sun 74 69 S 2 3686 2907 1057 Blue 8
4 PM Sun 71 66 S 5 2915 2189 339 Blue 5
5 PM Sun 66 61 S 3 1952 1850 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 63 58 S 1 1565 1850 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 59 54 W 2 1565 1850 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 56 51 W 2 1565 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 53 48 NW 1 1565 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 50 45 W 2 1565 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 48 43 SW 2 1565 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 46 41 SW 3 1565 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 45 40 W 2 1565 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 45 40 W 1 1565 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 44 39 SW 2 1565 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 43 38 SW 2 1565 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 42 37 SW 2 1565 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 42 37 SW 2 1565 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 44 39 SE 1 1565 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 54 49 SE 1 1565 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 60 56 SE 1 1565 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 64 60 N 2 1714 1850 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 67 63 N 2 2192 1850 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Mon 71 67 N 2 3123 2463 613 Blue 6
1 PM Mon 74 70 SE 3 3957 3113 1263 Blue 9
2 PM Mon 75 71 SE 3 4231 3436 1586 Blue 10
3 PM Mon 74 69 SE 3 3686 2907 1057 Blue 8
4 PM Mon 71 66 SE 5 2915 2189 339 Blue 5
5 PM Mon 66 61 SE 5 1952 1850 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 63 58 SE 5 1565 1850 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 59 54 SW 8 1565 1850 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 56 51 SW 8 1565 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 53 48 SW 8 1565 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 50 45 W 2 1565 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 48 43 W 2 1565 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 46 41 W 2 1565 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 45 40 W 2 1565 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 45 40 W 2 1565 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 44 39 W 2 1565 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 43 38 SE 0 1565 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 42 37 SE 0 1565 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 42 37 SE 0 1565 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 44 39 SE 3 1565 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 52 47 SE 3 1565 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 58 53 SE 3 1565 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 61 58 SW 5 1565 1850 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 64 61 SW 5 1952 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 67 64 SW 5 2472 1948 98 Blue 3
1 PM Tue 70 67 SW 6 3123 2463 613 Blue 6
2 PM Tue 70 66 SW 6 2915 2189 339 Blue 5
3 PM Tue 69 64 SW 6 2472 1948 98 Blue 3
4 PM Tue 67 62 SW 9 2050 1850 0 Blue 1
5 PM Tue 62 57 SW 9 1565 1850 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 59 54 SW 9 1565 1850 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 56 51 S 6 1565 1850 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 53 48 S 6 1565 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 51 46 S 6 1565 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 48 43 S 3 1565 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 46 41 S 3 1565 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 45 40 S 3 1565 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 44 39 NE 1 1565 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 43 38 NE 1 1565 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 42 37 NE 1 1565 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 42 37 NW 1 1565 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 41 36 NW 1 1565 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 41 36 NW 1 1565 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 43 38 NW 1 1565 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 51 46 NW 1 1565 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 56 52 NW 1 1565 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 58 54 W 2 1565 1850 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 61 57 W 2 1565 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 64 60 W 2 1714 1850 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 67 63 SW 6 2192 1850 0 Blue 2
2 PM Wed 67 63 SW 6 2192 1850 0 Blue 2
3 PM Wed 66 61 SW 6 1952 1850 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 64 59 SW 6 1565 1850 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 60 55 SW 6 1565 1850 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 58 53 SW 6 1565 1850 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 55 50 S 9 1565 1850 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 53 48 S 9 1565 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 51 46 S 9 1565 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 49 44 S 5 1565 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 47 42 S 5 1565 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 46 41 S 5 1565 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 45 40 E 2 1565 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 45 40 E 2 1565 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 44 39 E 2 1565 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 44 39 E 3 1565 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 43 38 E 3 1565 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 43 38 E 3 1565 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 44 39 NE 2 1565 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 52 47 NE 2 1565 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 56 51 NE 2 1565 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 59 54 W 1 1565 1850 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 61 57 W 1 1565 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 64 60 W 1 1714 1850 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 67 63 NW 8 2192 1850 0 Blue 2
2 PM Thu 67 62 NW 8 2050 1850 0 Blue 1
3 PM Thu 66 61 NW 8 1952 1850 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 64 59 NW 8 1565 1850 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 60 55 NW 8 1565 1850 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 57 52 NW 8 1565 1850 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 54 49 NW 2 1565 1850 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 51 46 NW 2 1565 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 49 44 NW 2 1565 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 47 42 E 6 1565 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 44 39 E 6 1565 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 43 38 E 6 1565 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 42 37 E 3 1565 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 42 37 E 3 1565 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 41 36 E 3 1565 1850 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst