Detailed Predictions for: Winchester
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 33.7298, -117.063, 1850
LZ Altitude (f): 1600
Sounding

Station:

 KNKX

Date/Time:

 18 APR 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Thu 58 53 SW 2 6 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 57 52 SW 2 6 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 56 51 W 2 5 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 54 49 W 1 5 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 54 49 W 1 5 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 54 49 W 1 1 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 54 49 W 1 1 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 54 49 WNW 1 4 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 56 51 W 1 4 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 60 56 SW 2 5 1620 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 65 61 SW 3 8 1779 1850 0 Blue 3
11 AM Thu 69 66 SW 6 12 2063 1850 0 Blue 8
12 Noon Thu 73 70 SW 6 13 2782 2172 322 Blue 12
1 PM Thu 74 71 SW 6 12 2985 2314 464 Blue 13
2 PM Thu 76 75 SSW 9 16 3646 3177 1327 Blue 17
3 PM Thu 77 75 SSW 11 19 3646 3177 1327 Blue 17
4 PM Thu 76 73 SSW 12 20 3340 2775 925 Blue 15
5 PM Thu 75 71 SSW 13 23 2985 2314 464 Blue 13
6 PM Thu 73 68 SSW 11 19 2317 2013 163 Blue 10
7 PM Thu 68 63 SSW 9 17 1813 1850 0 Blue 5
8 PM Thu 63 58 SSW 8 13 1727 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 60 55 SSW 6 12 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 58 53 SW 5 10 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 56 51 SW 4 9 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 54 49 SW 3 9 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 53 48 WSW 3 8 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 52 47 WSW 3 8 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 51 46 WSW 2 6 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 50 45 WSW 2 6 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 50 45 WSW 2 6 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 50 45 SW 2 5 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 50 45 SW 1 5 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 52 48 SW 2 5 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 55 52 SW 3 8 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 61 60 SW 4 9 1762 1850 0 Blue 2
11 AM Fri 67 68 SW 5 11 2317 2013 163 Blue 10
12 Noon Fri 70 72 SW 6 13 3186 2573 723 Blue 14
1 PM Fri 73 75 SSW 9 16 3646 3177 1327 Blue 17
2 PM Fri 74 75 SSW 10 17 3646 3177 1327 Blue 17
3 PM Fri 74 74 SSW 12 20 3493 2976 1126 Blue 16
4 PM Fri 74 72 SSW 14 24 3186 2573 723 Blue 14
5 PM Fri 72 68 SSW 16 25 2317 2013 163 Blue 10
6 PM Fri 69 64 SSW 13 23 1964 1850 0 Blue 6
7 PM Fri 65 60 SSW 11 19 1762 1850 0 Blue 2
8 PM Fri 62 57 SSW 9 16 1675 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 59 54 SSW 8 13 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 57 52 SW 6 12 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 56 51 SW 5 11 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 54 49 SW 5 10 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 53 48 SW 4 10 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 52 47 SW 4 9 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 51 46 WSW 4 9 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 51 46 WSW 3 9 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 50 45 WSW 3 8 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 50 45 SW 2 6 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 51 46 SSW 2 5 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 52 47 S 1 5 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 56 52 SSW 2 6 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 61 59 SW 3 8 1744 1850 0 Blue 1
11 AM Sat 65 66 SW 4 10 2063 1850 0 Blue 8
12 Noon Sat 69 71 SW 5 10 2985 2314 464 Blue 13
1 PM Sat 72 74 SW 5 11 3493 2976 1126 Blue 16
2 PM Sat 75 76 SW 6 13 3799 3331 1481 Blue 18
3 PM Sat 77 77 SSW 9 17 3952 3484 1634 Blue 19
4 PM Sat 78 76 SSW 12 20 3799 3331 1481 Blue 18
5 PM Sat 77 73 SSW 13 21 3340 2775 925 Blue 15
6 PM Sat 75 70 SSW 12 20 2782 2172 322 Blue 12
7 PM Sat 72 67 SSW 10 18 2174 1964 114 Blue 9
8 PM Sat 68 63 SSW 8 14 1813 1850 0 Blue 5
9 PM Sat 65 60 SSW 5 11 1762 1850 0 Blue 2
10 PM Sat 62 57 S 4 9 1675 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 59 54 S 3 8 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 58 53 S 3 8 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 57 52 SSW 3 8 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 56 51 SW 3 8 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 55 50 WSW 3 8 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 55 50 WNW 2 6 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 54 49 NW 1 5 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 55 50 NW 1 5 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 56 51 NW 1 5 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 58 54 NW 3 9 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 63 60 NW 3 9 1762 1850 0 Blue 2
10 AM Sun 69 68 NW 3 9 2317 2013 163 Blue 10
11 AM Sun 74 75 WSW 5 11 3646 3177 1327 Blue 17
12 Noon Sun 78 80 WSW 5 11 4572 3941 2091 Blue 22
1 PM Sun 81 83 WSW 5 11 5988 4520 2670 Blue 25
2 PM Sun 83 85 SSW 11 18 6513 5689 3839 Blue 27
3 PM Sun 84 84 SSW 11 18 6251 5102 3252 Blue 26
4 PM Sun 83 81 SSW 11 18 5182 4093 2243 Blue 23
5 PM Sun 81 77 SSW 10 18 3952 3484 1634 Blue 19
6 PM Sun 78 73 SSW 10 18 3340 2775 925 Blue 15
7 PM Sun 73 68 SSW 10 18 2317 2013 163 Blue 10
8 PM Sun 69 64 S 9 16 1964 1850 0 Blue 6
9 PM Sun 66 61 S 9 16 1779 1850 0 Blue 3
10 PM Sun 64 59 S 9 16 1744 1850 0 Blue 1
11 PM Sun 62 57 SSW 4 10 1675 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 59 54 SSW 4 10 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 58 53 SSW 4 10 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 56 51 SSW 4 10 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 55 50 SSW 4 10 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 55 50 SSW 4 10 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 54 49 SSW 3 8 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 54 49 SSW 3 8 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 54 49 SSW 3 8 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 56 52 S 4 10 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 60 57 S 4 10 1675 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 66 65 S 4 10 2014 1850 0 Blue 7
11 AM Mon 70 71 SSW 8 14 2985 2314 464 Blue 13
12 Noon Mon 74 76 SSW 8 14 3799 3331 1481 Blue 18
1 PM Mon 76 78 SSW 8 14 4105 3636 1786 Blue 20
2 PM Mon 77 78 SSW 12 20 4105 3636 1786 Blue 20
3 PM Mon 78 78 SSW 12 20 4105 3636 1786 Blue 20
4 PM Mon 77 75 SSW 12 20 3646 3177 1327 Blue 17
5 PM Mon 75 71 SSW 13 21 2985 2314 464 Blue 13
6 PM Mon 71 66 SSW 13 21 2063 1850 0 Blue 8
7 PM Mon 67 62 SSW 13 21 1796 1850 0 Blue 4
8 PM Mon 63 58 S 10 18 1727 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 60 55 S 10 18 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 57 52 S 10 18 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 55 50 S 8 13 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 54 49 S 8 13 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 52 47 S 8 13 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 52 47 SSW 6 12 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 51 46 SSW 6 12 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 51 46 SSW 6 12 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 50 45 SSW 6 12 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 50 45 SSW 6 12 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 50 45 SSW 6 12 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 51 46 S 6 12 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 53 48 S 6 12 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 56 51 S 6 12 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 59 60 SSW 8 13 1762 1850 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Tue 62 64 SSW 8 13 1964 1850 0 Blue 6
1 PM Tue 64 66 SSW 8 13 2063 1850 0 Blue 8
2 PM Tue 66 67 SSW 10 18 2174 1964 114 Blue 9
3 PM Tue 68 68 SSW 10 18 2317 2013 163 Blue 10
4 PM Tue 68 66 SSW 10 18 2063 1850 0 Blue 8
5 PM Tue 68 64 SSW 12 20 1964 1850 0 Blue 6
6 PM Tue 66 61 SSW 12 20 1779 1850 0 Blue 3
7 PM Tue 63 58 SSW 12 20 1727 1850 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 60 55 SSW 11 18 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 57 52 SSW 11 18 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 54 49 SSW 11 18 1581 1850 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst