Detailed Predictions for: Winchester
Launch Altitude (f): 1850
LZ Altitude (f): 1600
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

21 JAN 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Sun 35 30 SE 6 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 34 29 SE 5 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 34 29 S 3 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 35 30 S 2 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 39 34 S 2 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 44 40 S 2 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 49 45 SW 2 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 53 50 SW 2 1612 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 55 52 SW 2 3675 1850 0 Blue 1
1 PM Sun 57 54 W 2 4289 1945 95 Blue 3
2 PM Sun 59 55 W 2 4789 3654 1804 White 4
3 PM Sun 59 54 W 2 4289 1945 95 Blue 3
4 PM Sun 59 54 NW 3 4289 1945 95 Blue 3
5 PM Sun 55 50 NW 5 1612 1850 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 49 44 W 5 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 44 39 SW 1 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 41 36 S 0 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 40 35 E 2 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 39 34 E 2 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 38 33 NE 1 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 37 32 N 1 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 37 32 NE 1 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 37 32 NE 1 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 37 32 N 1 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 36 31 NE 1 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 35 30 N 1 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 34 29 N 1 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 35 30 NE 1 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 40 35 N 1 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 46 41 E 0 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 53 49 NW 1 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 58 55 N 1 4789 3654 1804 White 4
12 Noon Mon 62 59 N 1 5648 5485 3635 White 8
1 PM Mon 64 61 N 1 6071 5737 3887 White 10
2 PM Mon 66 62 N 1 6282 5862 4012 White 11
3 PM Mon 65 60 N 3 5859 5611 3761 White 9
4 PM Mon 65 60 NE 7 5859 5611 3761 White 9
5 PM Mon 62 57 NE 8 5223 4262 2412 White 6
6 PM Mon 58 53 NE 7 3983 1850 0 Blue 2
7 PM Mon 53 48 NE 3 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 49 44 NE 3 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 46 41 NE 1 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 44 39 N 2 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 42 37 N 2 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 42 37 NE 1 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 41 36 NE 1 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 41 36 NW 0 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 40 35 N 1 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 39 34 NE 1 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 37 32 SE 1 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 36 31 NE 2 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 38 33 N 6 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 44 39 N 3 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 52 48 NW 1 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 60 57 S 2 5223 4262 2412 White 6
11 AM Tue 65 62 SE 2 6282 5862 4012 White 11
12 Noon Tue 69 67 S 2 7330 7330 5480 White 16
1 PM Tue 71 68 E 0 7538 7538 5688 White 17
2 PM Tue 72 69 NW 1 7744 7744 5894 White 18
3 PM Tue 72 68 NW 2 7538 7538 5688 White 17
4 PM Tue 72 67 NE 6 7330 7330 5480 White 16
5 PM Tue 68 63 E 8 6492 6492 4642 White 12
6 PM Tue 63 58 E 7 5436 5087 3237 White 7
7 PM Tue 58 53 E 5 3983 1850 0 Blue 2
8 PM Tue 54 49 N 1 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 50 45 NE 1 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 48 43 E 1 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 46 41 SE 3 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 44 39 SE 2 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 43 38 SE 1 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 42 37 S 1 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 42 37 SW 1 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 41 36 S 2 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 40 35 S 2 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 40 35 S 2 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 42 37 SE 2 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 49 44 SE 2 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 56 52 SE 2 3675 1850 0 Blue 1
10 AM Wed 64 61 NE 3 6071 5737 3887 White 10
11 AM Wed 69 66 NE 3 7122 7122 5272 White 15
12 Noon Wed 72 69 NE 3 7744 7744 5894 White 18
1 PM Wed 74 71 SE 5 8157 8157 6307 White 20
2 PM Wed 75 71 SE 5 8157 8157 6307 White 20
3 PM Wed 75 71 SE 5 8157 8157 6307 White 20
4 PM Wed 73 68 SW 7 7538 7538 5688 White 17
5 PM Wed 68 63 SW 7 6492 6492 4642 White 12
6 PM Wed 62 57 SW 7 5223 4262 2412 White 6
7 PM Wed 57 52 S 6 3675 1850 0 Blue 1
8 PM Wed 54 49 S 6 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 53 48 S 6 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 52 47 SE 5 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 51 46 SE 5 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 49 44 SE 5 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 48 43 S 3 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 47 42 S 3 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 46 41 S 3 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 45 40 S 5 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 43 38 S 5 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 41 36 S 5 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 41 36 S 6 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 45 40 S 6 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 50 45 S 6 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 55 51 SW 8 1949 1850 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 58 54 SW 8 4289 1945 95 Blue 3
12 Noon Thu 59 55 SW 8 4789 3654 1804 White 4
1 PM Thu 59 55 W 10 4789 3654 1804 White 4
2 PM Thu 60 56 W 10 5009 3959 2109 White 5
3 PM Thu 60 55 W 10 4789 3654 1804 White 4
4 PM Thu 59 54 W 12 4289 1945 95 Blue 3
5 PM Thu 56 51 W 12 1949 1850 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 52 47 W 12 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 48 43 N 8 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 45 40 N 8 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 43 38 N 8 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 42 37 E 5 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 41 36 E 5 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 40 35 E 5 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 40 35 SE 5 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 39 34 SE 5 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 39 34 SE 5 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 38 33 SE 5 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 37 32 SE 5 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 36 31 SE 5 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 37 32 S 5 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 42 37 S 5 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 47 43 S 5 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 53 49 W 5 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 57 54 W 5 4289 1945 95 Blue 3
12 Noon Fri 59 56 W 5 5009 3959 2109 White 5
1 PM Fri 61 58 SW 6 5436 5087 3237 White 7
2 PM Fri 63 59 SW 6 5648 5485 3635 White 8
3 PM Fri 64 59 SW 6 5648 5485 3635 White 8
4 PM Fri 64 59 SW 6 5648 5485 3635 White 8
5 PM Fri 62 57 SW 6 5223 4262 2412 White 6
6 PM Fri 58 53 SW 6 3983 1850 0 Blue 2
7 PM Fri 54 49 SW 5 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 50 45 SW 5 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 46 41 SW 5 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 43 38 SW 3 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 41 36 SW 3 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 40 35 SW 3 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 40 35 W 3 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 40 35 W 3 1581 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 40 35 W 3 1581 1850 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst