Detailed Predictions for: Winchester
Launch Altitude (f): 1850
LZ Altitude (f): 1600
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

18 MAY 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 48 43 E 1 1276 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 48 43 S 1 1276 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 50 45 SE 1 1276 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 53 49 S 1 1276 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 57 55 SW 2 2242 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 62 62 SW 2 4020 2977 1127 Blue 7
11 AM Sat 66 66 SW 5 4567 4099 2249 Blue 11
12 Noon Sat 69 69 SW 6 5196 4531 2681 Blue 14
1 PM Sat 72 73 SW 7 6048 5292 3442 Blue 18
2 PM Sat 73 73 SW 12 6048 5292 3442 Blue 18
3 PM Sat 73 72 SW 13 5609 5183 3333 Blue 17
4 PM Sat 73 71 SW 14 5436 5074 3224 Blue 16
5 PM Sat 71 67 SW 15 4925 4148 2298 Blue 12
6 PM Sat 68 63 SW 14 4103 3350 1500 Blue 8
7 PM Sat 64 59 SW 14 2987 2397 547 Blue 4
8 PM Sat 60 55 S 10 2242 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 58 53 S 10 1600 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 56 51 S 9 1276 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 55 50 S 8 1276 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 54 49 S 9 1276 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 52 47 S 9 1276 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 52 47 S 9 1276 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 52 47 S 8 1276 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 51 46 S 7 1276 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 51 46 S 7 1276 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 51 46 S 6 1276 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 52 47 S 6 1276 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 53 48 S 6 1276 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 55 50 S 8 1276 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 57 52 S 10 1323 1850 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 59 57 SW 13 2568 1872 22 Blue 2
12 Noon Sun 60 58 SW 14 2777 2239 389 Blue 3
1 PM Sun 62 60 SW 15 3374 2561 711 Blue 5
2 PM Sun 63 61 SW 15 3779 2769 919 Blue 6
3 PM Sun 62 59 SW 16 2987 2397 547 Blue 4
4 PM Sun 62 58 SW 16 2777 2239 389 Blue 3
5 PM Sun 61 57 SW 15 2568 1872 22 Blue 2
6 PM Sun 59 54 SW 14 1874 1850 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 56 51 SW 13 1276 1850 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 54 49 SW 12 1276 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 52 47 SW 10 1276 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 51 46 SW 10 1276 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 50 45 SW 10 1276 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 50 45 SW 10 1276 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 49 44 SW 10 1276 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 49 44 S 10 1276 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 48 43 S 9 1276 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 48 43 S 8 1276 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 48 43 S 7 1276 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 48 43 S 6 1276 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 49 44 SW 5 1276 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 51 46 SW 3 1276 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 54 50 W 5 1276 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 58 55 W 7 2242 1850 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 60 61 W 9 3779 2769 919 Blue 6
12 Noon Mon 62 64 W 10 4152 3751 1901 Blue 9
1 PM Mon 64 66 W 10 4567 4099 2249 Blue 11
2 PM Mon 66 67 SW 12 4925 4148 2298 Blue 12
3 PM Mon 65 65 SW 13 4201 4010 2160 Blue 10
4 PM Mon 65 63 SW 14 4103 3350 1500 Blue 8
5 PM Mon 64 60 SW 15 3374 2561 711 Blue 5
6 PM Mon 62 57 SW 14 2568 1872 22 Blue 2
7 PM Mon 59 54 SW 13 1874 1850 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 56 51 SW 10 1276 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 55 50 SW 10 1276 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 54 49 S 10 1276 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 52 47 S 10 1276 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 52 47 S 10 1276 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 51 46 S 9 1276 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 51 46 SW 9 1276 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 50 45 SW 9 1276 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 50 45 SW 10 1276 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 50 45 SW 10 1276 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 50 45 SW 10 1276 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 51 46 SW 10 1276 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 52 47 SW 15 1276 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 54 50 SW 15 1276 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 56 52 SW 15 1323 1850 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 58 55 SW 16 2242 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 60 58 SW 16 2777 2239 389 Blue 3
1 PM Tue 61 59 SW 16 2987 2397 547 Blue 4
2 PM Tue 62 59 W 21 2987 2397 547 Blue 4
3 PM Tue 62 59 W 21 2987 2397 547 Blue 4
4 PM Tue 61 57 W 21 2568 1872 22 Blue 2
5 PM Tue 60 55 W 21 2242 1850 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 59 54 W 21 1874 1850 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 56 51 W 21 1276 1850 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 54 49 SW 14 1276 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 53 48 SW 14 1276 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 52 47 SW 14 1276 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 51 46 S 12 1276 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 50 45 S 12 1276 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 50 45 S 12 1276 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 50 45 S 8 1276 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 49 44 S 8 1276 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 49 44 S 8 1276 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 49 44 SE 6 1276 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 49 44 SE 6 1276 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 50 45 SE 6 1276 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 52 47 S 8 1276 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 55 51 S 8 1276 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 58 55 S 8 2242 1850 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 61 60 SW 6 3374 2561 711 Blue 5
12 Noon Wed 62 62 SW 6 4020 2977 1127 Blue 7
1 PM Wed 64 64 SW 6 4152 3751 1901 Blue 9
2 PM Wed 66 65 W 7 4201 4010 2160 Blue 10
3 PM Wed 66 64 W 7 4152 3751 1901 Blue 9
4 PM Wed 65 62 W 7 4020 2977 1127 Blue 7
5 PM Wed 64 60 SW 13 3374 2561 711 Blue 5
6 PM Wed 62 57 SW 13 2568 1872 22 Blue 2
7 PM Wed 59 54 SW 13 1874 1850 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 56 51 S 10 1276 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 55 50 S 10 1276 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 54 49 S 10 1276 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 52 47 S 5 1276 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 52 47 S 5 1276 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 51 46 S 5 1276 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 51 46 SW 5 1276 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 50 45 SW 5 1276 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 50 45 SW 5 1276 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 50 45 S 2 1276 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 50 45 S 2 1276 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 51 46 S 2 1276 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 54 50 W 2 1276 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 57 54 W 2 1874 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 62 60 W 2 3374 2561 711 Blue 5
11 AM Thu 65 65 W 3 4201 4010 2160 Blue 10
12 Noon Thu 68 69 W 3 5196 4531 2681 Blue 14
1 PM Thu 70 71 W 3 5436 5074 3224 Blue 16
2 PM Thu 71 71 S 12 5436 5074 3224 Blue 16
3 PM Thu 72 71 S 12 5436 5074 3224 Blue 16
4 PM Thu 71 69 S 12 5196 4531 2681 Blue 14
5 PM Thu 70 66 SW 12 4567 4099 2249 Blue 11
6 PM Thu 67 62 SW 12 4020 2977 1127 Blue 7
7 PM Thu 63 58 SW 12 2777 2239 389 Blue 3
8 PM Thu 59 54 S 7 1874 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 57 52 S 7 1323 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 56 51 S 7 1276 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 54 49 S 6 1276 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 53 48 S 6 1276 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 52 47 S 6 1276 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 52 47 S 2 1276 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 51 46 S 2 1276 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 51 46 S 2 1276 1850 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst