Detailed Predictions for: Winchester
Launch Altitude (f): 1850
LZ Altitude (f): 1600
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

21 JUL 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 62 57 N 2 1260 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 61 56 N 1 1260 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 66 61 N 1 2029 1850 0 White 0
8 AM Sun 72 68 N 2 2197 2135 285 Blue 7
9 AM Sun 79 77 N 2 2711 2424 574 Blue 16
10 AM Sun 85 85 NW 2 3984 3447 1597 Blue 24
11 AM Sun 90 91 W 3 4768 4365 2515 Blue 30
12 Noon Sun 95 97 W 5 5547 5144 3294 Blue 36
1 PM Sun 98 101 SW 6 6483 5659 3809 Blue 40
2 PM Sun 98 100 SW 7 6220 5531 3681 Blue 39
3 PM Sun 99 100 SW 8 6220 5531 3681 Blue 39
4 PM Sun 98 97 SW 9 5547 5144 3294 Blue 36
5 PM Sun 96 93 SW 10 5028 4625 2775 Blue 32
6 PM Sun 93 89 SW 10 4507 4105 2255 Blue 28
7 PM Sun 89 84 SW 9 3854 3188 1338 Blue 23
8 PM Sun 84 79 S 7 2848 2555 705 Blue 18
9 PM Sun 80 75 SW 5 2487 2321 471 Blue 14
10 PM Sun 77 72 SW 3 2322 2216 366 Blue 11
11 PM Sun 75 70 W 3 2237 2177 327 Blue 9
12 Midnight Mon 73 68 W 2 2197 2135 285 Blue 7
1 AM Mon 71 66 NW 2 2157 2092 242 Blue 5
2 AM Mon 70 65 N 2 2136 2071 221 Blue 4
3 AM Mon 69 64 N 2 2114 2029 179 Blue 3
4 AM Mon 67 62 N 2 2071 1850 0 Blue 1
5 AM Mon 66 61 N 1 2029 1850 0 White 0
6 AM Mon 65 60 N 1 1803 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 69 64 W 0 2114 2029 179 Blue 3
8 AM Mon 76 72 SW 1 2322 2216 366 Blue 11
9 AM Mon 82 79 SW 2 2848 2555 705 Blue 18
10 AM Mon 88 87 SW 3 4246 3844 1994 Blue 26
11 AM Mon 92 91 SW 5 4768 4365 2515 Blue 30
12 Noon Mon 96 96 SW 6 5417 5014 3164 Blue 35
1 PM Mon 99 99 SW 8 5956 5402 3552 Blue 38
2 PM Mon 99 99 SW 9 5956 5402 3552 Blue 38
3 PM Mon 100 99 SW 10 5956 5402 3552 Blue 38
4 PM Mon 99 97 SW 12 5547 5144 3294 Blue 36
5 PM Mon 97 93 SW 12 5028 4625 2775 Blue 32
6 PM Mon 94 89 SW 10 4507 4105 2255 Blue 28
7 PM Mon 90 85 SW 9 3984 3447 1597 Blue 24
8 PM Mon 85 80 S 7 2930 2705 855 Blue 19
9 PM Mon 81 76 SW 6 2557 2372 522 Blue 15
10 PM Mon 79 74 SW 5 2425 2269 419 Blue 13
11 PM Mon 77 72 SW 3 2322 2216 366 Blue 11
12 Midnight Tue 74 69 W 3 2217 2157 307 Blue 8
1 AM Tue 73 68 W 3 2197 2135 285 Blue 7
2 AM Tue 72 67 NW 2 2177 2114 264 Blue 6
3 AM Tue 71 66 NW 2 2157 2092 242 Blue 5
4 AM Tue 69 64 N 2 2114 2029 179 Blue 3
5 AM Tue 68 63 N 2 2093 1850 0 Blue 2
6 AM Tue 67 62 N 1 2071 1850 0 Blue 1
7 AM Tue 71 66 N 1 2157 2092 242 Blue 5
8 AM Tue 77 72 N 1 2322 2216 366 Blue 11
9 AM Tue 83 80 N 1 2930 2705 855 Blue 19
10 AM Tue 88 86 NW 2 4115 3705 1855 Blue 25
11 AM Tue 92 90 W 2 4637 4235 2385 Blue 29
12 Noon Tue 96 95 W 3 5288 4885 3035 Blue 34
1 PM Tue 99 98 W 5 5690 5273 3423 Blue 37
2 PM Tue 99 98 SW 6 5690 5273 3423 Blue 37
3 PM Tue 100 98 SW 7 5690 5273 3423 Blue 37
4 PM Tue 99 96 SW 8 5417 5014 3164 Blue 35
5 PM Tue 98 94 SW 8 5158 4755 2905 Blue 33
6 PM Tue 94 89 SW 8 4507 4105 2255 Blue 28
7 PM Tue 91 86 SW 7 4115 3705 1855 Blue 25
8 PM Tue 86 81 SW 6 3201 2781 931 Blue 20
9 PM Tue 83 78 SW 5 2783 2484 634 Blue 17
10 PM Tue 80 75 SW 5 2487 2321 471 Blue 14
11 PM Tue 78 73 SW 3 2374 2236 386 Blue 12
12 Midnight Wed 76 71 S 3 2271 2197 347 Blue 10
1 AM Wed 75 70 E 2 2237 2177 327 Blue 9
2 AM Wed 74 69 NE 2 2217 2157 307 Blue 8
3 AM Wed 72 67 NE 2 2177 2114 264 Blue 6
4 AM Wed 71 66 N 2 2157 2092 242 Blue 5
5 AM Wed 70 65 N 2 2136 2071 221 Blue 4
6 AM Wed 69 64 N 2 2114 2029 179 Blue 3
7 AM Wed 73 68 N 2 2197 2135 285 Blue 7
8 AM Wed 79 75 NW 1 2487 2321 471 Blue 14
9 AM Wed 84 81 NW 1 3201 2781 931 Blue 20
10 AM Wed 90 88 NW 1 4376 3975 2125 Blue 27
11 AM Wed 94 93 N 3 5028 4625 2775 Blue 32
12 Noon Wed 98 97 N 3 5547 5144 3294 Blue 36
1 PM Wed 100 100 N 3 6220 5531 3681 Blue 39
2 PM Wed 100 99 S 8 5956 5402 3552 Blue 38
3 PM Wed 101 100 S 8 6220 5531 3681 Blue 39
4 PM Wed 100 97 S 8 5547 5144 3294 Blue 36
5 PM Wed 98 94 SW 10 5158 4755 2905 Blue 33
6 PM Wed 95 90 SW 10 4637 4235 2385 Blue 29
7 PM Wed 91 86 SW 10 4115 3705 1855 Blue 25
8 PM Wed 86 81 S 8 3201 2781 931 Blue 20
9 PM Wed 82 77 S 8 2711 2424 574 Blue 16
10 PM Wed 80 75 S 8 2487 2321 471 Blue 14
11 PM Wed 78 73 S 3 2374 2236 386 Blue 12
12 Midnight Thu 76 71 S 3 2271 2197 347 Blue 10
1 AM Thu 74 69 S 3 2217 2157 307 Blue 8
2 AM Thu 73 68 SW 2 2197 2135 285 Blue 7
3 AM Thu 72 67 SW 2 2177 2114 264 Blue 6
4 AM Thu 70 65 SW 2 2136 2071 221 Blue 4
5 AM Thu 69 64 S 2 2114 2029 179 Blue 3
6 AM Thu 68 63 S 2 2093 1850 0 Blue 2
7 AM Thu 72 67 S 2 2177 2114 264 Blue 6
8 AM Thu 78 74 SW 1 2425 2269 419 Blue 13
9 AM Thu 84 81 SW 1 3201 2781 931 Blue 20
10 AM Thu 89 87 SW 1 4246 3844 1994 Blue 26
11 AM Thu 93 94 W 5 5158 4755 2905 Blue 33
12 Noon Thu 97 99 W 5 5956 5402 3552 Blue 38
1 PM Thu 100 102 W 5 6745 5920 4070 Blue 41
2 PM Thu 100 102 SW 9 6745 5920 4070 Blue 41
3 PM Thu 101 101 SW 9 6483 5659 3809 Blue 40
4 PM Thu 100 99 SW 9 5956 5402 3552 Blue 38
5 PM Thu 98 95 SW 12 5288 4885 3035 Blue 34
6 PM Thu 95 91 SW 12 4768 4365 2515 Blue 30
7 PM Thu 91 86 SW 12 4115 3705 1855 Blue 25
8 PM Thu 86 81 S 8 3201 2781 931 Blue 20
9 PM Thu 81 76 S 8 2557 2372 522 Blue 15
10 PM Thu 78 73 S 8 2374 2236 386 Blue 12
11 PM Thu 76 71 S 3 2271 2197 347 Blue 10
12 Midnight Fri 74 69 S 3 2217 2157 307 Blue 8
1 AM Fri 73 68 S 3 2197 2135 285 Blue 7
2 AM Fri 71 66 SW 3 2157 2092 242 Blue 5
3 AM Fri 70 65 SW 3 2136 2071 221 Blue 4
4 AM Fri 68 63 SW 3 2093 1850 0 Blue 2
5 AM Fri 67 62 NW 2 2071 1850 0 Blue 1
6 AM Fri 66 61 NW 2 2029 1850 0 White 0
7 AM Fri 70 65 NW 2 2136 2071 221 Blue 4
8 AM Fri 76 72 S 2 2322 2216 366 Blue 11
9 AM Fri 82 79 S 2 2848 2555 705 Blue 18
10 AM Fri 88 87 S 2 4246 3844 1994 Blue 26
11 AM Fri 92 93 SW 5 5028 4625 2775 Blue 32
12 Noon Fri 96 98 SW 5 5690 5273 3423 Blue 37
1 PM Fri 99 102 SW 5 6745 5920 4070 Blue 41
2 PM Fri 99 101 SW 9 6483 5659 3809 Blue 40
3 PM Fri 100 101 SW 9 6483 5659 3809 Blue 40
4 PM Fri 99 98 SW 9 5690 5273 3423 Blue 37
5 PM Fri 97 94 SW 12 5158 4755 2905 Blue 33
6 PM Fri 93 89 SW 12 4507 4105 2255 Blue 28
7 PM Fri 89 84 SW 12 3854 3188 1338 Blue 23
8 PM Fri 84 79 S 8 2848 2555 705 Blue 18
9 PM Fri 79 74 S 8 2425 2269 419 Blue 13
10 PM Fri 76 71 S 8 2271 2197 347 Blue 10
11 PM Fri 74 69 SW 3 2217 2157 307 Blue 8
12 Midnight Sat 71 66 SW 3 2157 2092 242 Blue 5
1 AM Sat 70 65 SW 3 2136 2071 221 Blue 4
2 AM Sat 68 63 SW 2 2093 1850 0 Blue 2
3 AM Sat 67 62 SW 2 2071 1850 0 Blue 1
4 AM Sat 66 61 SW 2 2029 1850 0 White 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst