Detailed Predictions for: Winchester
Launch Altitude (f): 1850
LZ Altitude (f): 1600
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

11 NOV 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Mon 46 41 N 1 440 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 46 41 N 1 440 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 47 42 NW 1 440 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 50 45 N 1 440 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 56 51 E 0 440 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 63 59 E 0 1863 1850 0 Blue 6
10 AM Mon 71 68 W 1 2188 1986 136 Blue 15
11 AM Mon 78 76 NW 2 3085 2748 898 Blue 23
12 Noon Mon 82 80 W 3 4741 3239 1389 Blue 27
1 PM Mon 84 82 W 5 6232 3942 2092 Blue 29
2 PM Mon 85 82 W 5 6232 3942 2092 Blue 29
3 PM Mon 82 78 SW 7 3428 2959 1109 Blue 25
4 PM Mon 76 71 SW 8 2488 2186 336 Blue 18
5 PM Mon 69 64 SW 6 1943 1892 42 Blue 11
6 PM Mon 61 56 SW 5 1819 1850 0 Blue 3
7 PM Mon 55 50 W 2 440 1850 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 52 47 NW 2 440 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 52 47 NW 1 440 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 52 47 E 1 440 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 52 47 NE 1 440 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 51 46 N 1 440 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 50 45 N 1 440 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 49 44 N 1 440 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 49 44 S 1 440 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 48 43 S 1 440 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 48 43 S 1 440 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 49 44 SW 1 440 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 52 47 SW 1 440 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 59 54 W 1 1729 1850 0 Blue 1
9 AM Tue 68 64 W 2 1943 1892 42 Blue 11
10 AM Tue 76 73 NW 2 2752 2430 580 Blue 20
11 AM Tue 81 79 W 2 3999 3080 1230 Blue 26
12 Noon Tue 84 82 W 2 6232 3942 2092 Blue 29
1 PM Tue 85 82 W 2 6232 3942 2092 Blue 29
2 PM Tue 85 82 SW 3 6232 3942 2092 Blue 29
3 PM Tue 84 80 SW 5 4741 3239 1389 Blue 27
4 PM Tue 79 74 S 5 2838 2486 636 Blue 21
5 PM Tue 72 67 S 5 2094 1943 93 Blue 14
6 PM Tue 63 58 SE 3 1848 1850 0 Blue 5
7 PM Tue 57 52 SE 2 440 1850 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 54 49 S 2 440 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 54 49 SW 1 440 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 54 49 W 1 440 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 54 49 NW 1 440 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 52 47 N 0 440 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 51 46 NE 0 440 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 50 45 NE 1 440 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 49 44 E 1 440 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 49 44 E 1 440 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 50 45 E 1 440 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 51 46 N 1 440 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 55 50 NW 1 440 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 60 55 NW 1 1776 1850 0 Blue 2
9 AM Wed 67 63 W 1 1921 1877 27 Blue 10
10 AM Wed 74 70 SW 1 2432 2093 243 Blue 17
11 AM Wed 78 74 SW 2 2838 2486 636 Blue 21
12 Noon Wed 82 79 W 3 3999 3080 1230 Blue 26
1 PM Wed 84 80 W 5 4741 3239 1389 Blue 27
2 PM Wed 83 79 W 6 3999 3080 1230 Blue 26
3 PM Wed 83 78 SW 7 3428 2959 1109 Blue 25
4 PM Wed 79 74 SW 7 2838 2486 636 Blue 21
5 PM Wed 72 67 SW 6 2094 1943 93 Blue 14
6 PM Wed 64 59 S 5 1863 1850 0 Blue 6
7 PM Wed 57 52 S 3 440 1850 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 54 49 S 2 440 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 54 49 SW 1 440 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 54 49 SW 1 440 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 54 49 SW 1 440 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 54 49 W 0 440 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 53 48 W 1 440 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 52 47 W 1 440 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 51 46 NW 2 440 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 50 45 NW 2 440 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 48 43 NW 2 440 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 48 43 NW 2 440 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 50 45 E 1 440 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 55 50 E 1 440 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 62 57 E 1 1834 1850 0 Blue 4
10 AM Thu 68 64 SW 3 1943 1892 42 Blue 11
11 AM Thu 74 71 SW 3 2488 2186 336 Blue 18
12 Noon Thu 77 74 SW 3 2838 2486 636 Blue 21
1 PM Thu 78 74 W 6 2838 2486 636 Blue 21
2 PM Thu 78 74 W 6 2838 2486 636 Blue 21
3 PM Thu 78 73 W 6 2752 2430 580 Blue 20
4 PM Thu 75 70 W 8 2432 2093 243 Blue 17
5 PM Thu 69 64 W 8 1943 1892 42 Blue 11
6 PM Thu 63 58 W 8 1848 1850 0 Blue 5
7 PM Thu 59 54 S 3 1729 1850 0 Blue 1
8 PM Thu 57 52 S 3 440 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 57 52 S 3 440 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 57 52 NW 2 440 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 56 51 NW 2 440 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 54 49 NW 2 440 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 52 47 N 2 440 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 52 47 N 2 440 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 52 47 N 2 440 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 50 45 N 2 440 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 48 43 N 2 440 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 46 41 N 2 440 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 47 42 N 1 440 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 52 47 N 1 440 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 60 55 N 1 1776 1850 0 Blue 2
10 AM Fri 67 64 NW 2 1943 1892 42 Blue 11
11 AM Fri 72 69 NW 2 2363 2029 179 Blue 16
12 Noon Fri 75 72 NW 2 2609 2358 508 Blue 19
1 PM Fri 77 74 W 5 2838 2486 636 Blue 21
2 PM Fri 79 75 W 5 2965 2604 754 Blue 22
3 PM Fri 78 73 W 5 2752 2430 580 Blue 20
4 PM Fri 76 71 SW 6 2488 2186 336 Blue 18
5 PM Fri 70 65 SW 6 1986 1907 57 Blue 12
6 PM Fri 63 58 SW 6 1848 1850 0 Blue 5
7 PM Fri 56 51 S 1 440 1850 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 52 47 S 1 440 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 50 45 S 1 440 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 50 45 N 2 440 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 50 45 N 2 440 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 49 44 N 2 440 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 48 43 NW 2 440 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 47 42 NW 2 440 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 46 41 NW 2 440 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 45 40 NW 2 440 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 45 40 NW 2 440 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 47 42 NW 2 440 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 50 45 E 2 440 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 57 52 E 2 440 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 65 61 E 2 1892 1850 0 Blue 8
10 AM Sat 72 69 W 3 2363 2029 179 Blue 16
11 AM Sat 77 75 W 3 2965 2604 754 Blue 22
12 Noon Sat 80 78 W 3 3428 2959 1109 Blue 25
1 PM Sat 82 80 NE 8 4741 3239 1389 Blue 27
2 PM Sat 82 79 NE 8 3999 3080 1230 Blue 26
3 PM Sat 83 79 NE 8 3999 3080 1230 Blue 26
4 PM Sat 80 75 NE 10 2965 2604 754 Blue 22
5 PM Sat 74 69 NE 10 2363 2029 179 Blue 16
6 PM Sat 67 62 NE 10 1907 1863 13 Blue 9
7 PM Sat 61 56 E 5 1819 1850 0 Blue 3
8 PM Sat 58 53 E 5 1244 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 56 51 E 5 440 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 54 49 NW 3 440 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 52 47 NW 3 440 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 50 45 NW 3 440 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 49 44 W 5 440 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 49 44 W 5 440 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 49 44 W 5 440 1850 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst