Detailed Predictions for: Winchester
Launch Altitude (f): 1850
LZ Altitude (f): 1600
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

21 SEP 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Fri 60 55 N 1 1545 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 59 54 N 1 1545 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 59 54 N 1 1545 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 72 67 N 1 1627 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 79 75 N 1 1987 1891 41 Blue 4
10 AM Fri 84 82 W 1 3050 2245 395 Blue 11
11 AM Fri 88 88 W 5 3910 3356 1506 Blue 17
12 Noon Fri 91 92 SW 6 5424 4102 2252 Blue 21
1 PM Fri 94 95 SW 8 8715 5403 3553 Blue 24
2 PM Fri 97 97 SW 13 9543 6420 4570 Blue 26
3 PM Fri 97 96 SW 14 9135 5632 3782 Blue 25
4 PM Fri 97 94 SW 15 6538 4633 2783 Blue 23
5 PM Fri 93 89 SW 13 4118 3482 1632 Blue 18
6 PM Fri 87 82 SW 12 3050 2245 395 Blue 11
7 PM Fri 82 77 SW 9 2100 1956 106 Blue 6
8 PM Fri 79 74 SW 5 1956 1850 0 Blue 3
9 PM Fri 76 71 SW 3 1850 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 74 69 W 3 1740 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 71 66 NW 5 1571 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 69 64 NW 5 1545 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 66 61 NW 5 1545 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 65 60 NW 2 1545 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 63 58 NW 2 1545 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 62 57 NW 2 1545 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 61 56 NW 2 1545 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 60 55 N 3 1545 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 60 55 N 3 1545 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 73 68 N 2 1684 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 81 77 N 1 2100 1956 106 Blue 6
10 AM Sat 86 84 NW 3 3237 2965 1115 Blue 13
11 AM Sat 90 89 NW 6 4118 3482 1632 Blue 18
12 Noon Sat 93 93 W 5 5738 4309 2459 Blue 22
1 PM Sat 96 97 W 5 9543 6420 4570 Blue 26
2 PM Sat 99 99 SW 6 10340 9037 7187 Blue 28
3 PM Sat 99 98 SW 8 9945 8539 6689 Blue 27
4 PM Sat 99 96 SW 9 9135 5632 3782 Blue 25
5 PM Sat 94 90 W 8 4326 3687 1837 Blue 19
6 PM Sat 88 83 SW 8 3132 2763 913 Blue 12
7 PM Sat 84 79 SW 7 2247 2018 168 Blue 8
8 PM Sat 80 75 S 6 1987 1891 41 Blue 4
9 PM Sat 76 71 SW 7 1850 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 74 69 SW 5 1740 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 71 66 SW 2 1571 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 69 64 W 1 1545 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 67 62 NW 1 1545 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 65 60 N 3 1545 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 63 58 N 3 1545 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 62 57 NW 1 1545 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 61 56 W 1 1545 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 60 55 NW 1 1545 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 60 55 NW 1 1545 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 72 67 W 1 1627 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 79 75 SE 0 1987 1891 41 Blue 4
10 AM Sun 83 81 SW 2 2968 2177 327 Blue 10
11 AM Sun 87 87 SW 6 3701 3231 1381 Blue 16
12 Noon Sun 89 90 SW 8 4326 3687 1837 Blue 19
1 PM Sun 92 93 SW 12 5738 4309 2459 Blue 22
2 PM Sun 95 95 SW 15 8715 5403 3553 Blue 24
3 PM Sun 95 94 S 16 6538 4633 2783 Blue 23
4 PM Sun 95 92 S 16 5424 4102 2252 Blue 21
5 PM Sun 91 87 SW 16 3701 3231 1381 Blue 16
6 PM Sun 85 80 SW 13 2771 2098 248 Blue 9
7 PM Sun 80 75 SW 12 1987 1891 41 Blue 4
8 PM Sun 76 71 S 3 1850 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 73 68 SW 3 1684 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 71 66 SW 6 1571 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 68 63 SW 3 1545 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 66 61 SW 3 1545 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 63 58 SW 3 1545 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 62 57 SW 2 1545 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 60 55 SW 2 1545 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 59 54 S 2 1545 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 58 53 NW 2 1545 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 57 52 NW 2 1545 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 57 52 NW 2 1545 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 70 65 SW 1 1545 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 77 73 SW 1 1925 1850 0 Blue 2
10 AM Mon 82 80 SW 1 2771 2098 248 Blue 9
11 AM Mon 85 85 W 6 3363 3047 1197 Blue 14
12 Noon Mon 88 89 W 6 4118 3482 1632 Blue 18
1 PM Mon 91 92 W 6 5424 4102 2252 Blue 21
2 PM Mon 94 95 SW 8 8715 5403 3553 Blue 24
3 PM Mon 95 94 SW 8 6538 4633 2783 Blue 23
4 PM Mon 94 92 SW 8 5424 4102 2252 Blue 21
5 PM Mon 90 86 SW 10 3491 3128 1278 Blue 15
6 PM Mon 84 79 SW 10 2247 2018 168 Blue 8
7 PM Mon 79 74 SW 10 1956 1850 0 Blue 3
8 PM Mon 76 71 S 6 1850 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 73 68 S 6 1684 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 70 65 S 6 1545 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 68 63 W 1 1545 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 66 61 W 1 1545 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 63 58 W 1 1545 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 62 57 NW 1 1545 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 60 55 NW 1 1545 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 59 54 NW 1 1545 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 58 53 N 2 1545 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 57 52 N 2 1545 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 57 52 N 2 1545 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 70 65 W 3 1545 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 77 73 W 3 1925 1850 0 Blue 2
10 AM Tue 82 80 W 3 2771 2098 248 Blue 9
11 AM Tue 86 86 SW 5 3491 3128 1278 Blue 15
12 Noon Tue 89 90 SW 5 4326 3687 1837 Blue 19
1 PM Tue 92 93 SW 5 5738 4309 2459 Blue 22
2 PM Tue 95 95 SW 8 8715 5403 3553 Blue 24
3 PM Tue 96 95 SW 8 8715 5403 3553 Blue 24
4 PM Tue 95 92 SW 8 5424 4102 2252 Blue 21
5 PM Tue 91 87 SW 13 3701 3231 1381 Blue 16
6 PM Tue 85 80 SW 13 2771 2098 248 Blue 9
7 PM Tue 81 76 SW 13 2018 1925 75 Blue 5
8 PM Tue 77 72 S 6 1892 1850 0 Blue 1
9 PM Tue 74 69 S 6 1740 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 72 67 S 6 1627 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 70 65 NW 3 1545 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 67 62 NW 3 1545 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 65 60 NW 3 1545 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 64 59 NW 2 1545 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 62 57 NW 2 1545 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 61 56 NW 2 1545 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 60 55 N 2 1545 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 59 54 N 2 1545 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 59 54 N 2 1545 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 72 67 W 1 1627 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 79 75 W 1 1987 1891 41 Blue 4
10 AM Wed 84 82 W 1 3050 2245 395 Blue 11
11 AM Wed 88 88 SW 2 3910 3356 1506 Blue 17
12 Noon Wed 91 92 SW 2 5424 4102 2252 Blue 21
1 PM Wed 94 95 SW 2 8715 5403 3553 Blue 24
2 PM Wed 97 97 S 9 9543 6420 4570 Blue 26
3 PM Wed 98 97 S 9 9543 6420 4570 Blue 26
4 PM Wed 97 94 S 9 6538 4633 2783 Blue 23
5 PM Wed 93 89 S 18 4118 3482 1632 Blue 18
6 PM Wed 87 82 S 18 3050 2245 395 Blue 11
7 PM Wed 82 77 S 18 2100 1956 106 Blue 6
8 PM Wed 78 73 S 6 1925 1850 0 Blue 2
9 PM Wed 75 70 S 6 1797 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 73 68 S 6 1684 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 70 65 NW 1 1545 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 68 63 NW 1 1545 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 65 60 NW 1 1545 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 64 59 NW 2 1545 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 62 57 NW 2 1545 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 61 56 NW 2 1545 1850 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst