Detailed Predictions for: Winchester
Launch Altitude (f): 1850
LZ Altitude (f): 1600
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

22 APR 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 54 49 SW 1 1552 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 55 50 S 0 1552 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 57 52 S 0 1552 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 62 58 SE 0 1552 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 68 65 S 1 1552 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 75 73 SW 2 1805 1850 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 81 81 W 5 5950 3860 2010 Blue 8
12 Noon Sun 86 87 W 6 11691 7649 5799 Blue 14
1 PM Sun 89 90 SW 7 11960 11630 9780 Blue 17
2 PM Sun 89 89 SW 8 11860 10174 8324 Blue 16
3 PM Sun 90 89 SW 9 11860 10174 8324 Blue 16
4 PM Sun 88 86 SW 9 11496 6875 5025 Blue 13
5 PM Sun 84 80 SW 9 5506 2896 1046 Blue 7
6 PM Sun 78 73 SW 9 1805 1850 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 70 65 SW 8 1552 1850 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 64 59 S 6 1552 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 61 56 S 5 1552 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 59 54 S 5 1552 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 59 54 S 2 1552 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 58 53 SW 2 1552 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 57 52 SW 2 1552 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 55 50 SW 2 1552 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 53 48 SW 3 1552 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 52 47 SW 3 1552 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 51 46 S 2 1552 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 52 47 SW 1 1552 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 56 51 SW 1 1552 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 60 56 S 1 1552 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 66 64 S 2 1552 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 73 72 SW 2 1679 1850 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 79 80 SW 3 5506 2896 1046 Blue 7
12 Noon Mon 83 85 W 5 9328 6246 4396 Blue 12
1 PM Mon 86 88 W 5 11776 9014 7164 Blue 15
2 PM Mon 88 89 SW 7 11860 10174 8324 Blue 16
3 PM Mon 87 87 SW 8 11691 7649 5799 Blue 14
4 PM Mon 86 84 W 8 7901 5890 4040 Blue 11
5 PM Mon 83 79 W 8 4822 2445 595 Blue 6
6 PM Mon 79 74 W 7 1998 1850 0 Blue 1
7 PM Mon 73 68 SW 6 1552 1850 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 68 63 SW 5 1552 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 64 59 SW 5 1552 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 61 56 SW 3 1552 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 59 54 SW 2 1552 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 58 53 SW 2 1552 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 57 52 W 1 1552 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 55 50 NW 1 1552 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 54 49 W 1 1552 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 53 48 W 1 1552 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 52 47 W 1 1552 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 53 48 W 1 1552 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 55 50 N 0 1552 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 59 55 S 0 1552 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 65 62 SW 1 1552 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 72 71 SW 2 1554 1850 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 79 78 SW 5 3927 2220 370 Blue 5
12 Noon Tue 84 84 SW 5 7901 5890 4040 Blue 11
1 PM Tue 87 87 SW 7 11691 7649 5799 Blue 14
2 PM Tue 87 87 SW 13 11691 7649 5799 Blue 14
3 PM Tue 87 86 SW 12 11496 6875 5025 Blue 13
4 PM Tue 84 81 SW 12 5950 3860 2010 Blue 8
5 PM Tue 81 77 SW 12 2939 1995 145 Blue 4
6 PM Tue 76 71 SW 10 1554 1850 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 71 66 S 9 1552 1850 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 67 62 S 8 1552 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 63 58 S 8 1552 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 61 56 S 8 1552 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 59 54 S 5 1552 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 58 53 S 5 1552 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 58 53 S 5 1552 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 57 52 SW 3 1552 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 54 49 SW 3 1552 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 51 46 SW 3 1552 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 50 45 SW 2 1552 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 51 46 SW 2 1552 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 54 49 SW 2 1552 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 59 55 SW 5 1552 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 65 62 SW 5 1552 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 70 68 SW 5 1552 1850 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 75 75 SW 7 2225 1850 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Wed 79 80 SW 7 5506 2896 1046 Blue 7
1 PM Wed 81 82 SW 7 6292 4737 2887 Blue 9
2 PM Wed 83 84 W 9 7901 5890 4040 Blue 11
3 PM Wed 84 83 W 9 7014 5451 3601 Blue 10
4 PM Wed 84 82 W 9 6292 4737 2887 Blue 9
5 PM Wed 82 78 W 10 3927 2220 370 Blue 5
6 PM Wed 77 72 W 10 1679 1850 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 71 66 W 10 1552 1850 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 65 60 SW 7 1552 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 61 56 SW 7 1552 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 58 53 SW 7 1552 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 56 51 SW 2 1552 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 54 49 SW 2 1552 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 53 48 SW 2 1552 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 52 47 W 1 1552 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 50 45 W 1 1552 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 49 44 W 1 1552 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 49 44 NW 2 1552 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 49 44 NW 2 1552 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 51 46 NW 2 1552 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 55 51 W 5 1552 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 60 57 W 5 1552 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 67 66 W 5 1552 1850 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 72 72 W 7 1679 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 76 77 W 7 2939 1995 145 Blue 4
1 PM Thu 78 79 W 7 4822 2445 595 Blue 6
2 PM Thu 79 80 W 9 5506 2896 1046 Blue 7
3 PM Thu 80 79 W 9 4822 2445 595 Blue 6
4 PM Thu 80 78 W 9 3927 2220 370 Blue 5
5 PM Thu 78 74 W 10 1998 1850 0 Blue 1
6 PM Thu 75 70 W 10 1552 1850 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 70 65 W 10 1552 1850 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 65 60 SW 7 1552 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 62 57 SW 7 1552 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 59 54 SW 7 1552 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 57 52 S 3 1552 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 55 50 S 3 1552 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 53 48 S 3 1552 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 52 47 S 2 1552 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 50 45 S 2 1552 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 49 44 S 2 1552 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 49 44 SW 3 1552 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 50 45 SW 3 1552 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 52 47 SW 3 1552 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 56 52 SW 5 1552 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 62 59 SW 5 1552 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 68 67 SW 5 1552 1850 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 73 74 SW 7 1998 1850 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Fri 78 80 SW 7 5506 2896 1046 Blue 7
1 PM Fri 80 82 SW 7 6292 4737 2887 Blue 9
2 PM Fri 82 83 SW 9 7014 5451 3601 Blue 10
3 PM Fri 82 82 SW 9 6292 4737 2887 Blue 9
4 PM Fri 81 79 SW 9 4822 2445 595 Blue 6
5 PM Fri 79 75 W 12 2225 1850 0 Blue 2
6 PM Fri 76 71 W 12 1554 1850 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 72 67 W 12 1552 1850 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 68 63 SW 8 1552 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 63 58 SW 8 1552 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 60 55 SW 8 1552 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 57 52 S 3 1552 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 55 50 S 3 1552 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 53 48 S 3 1552 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 52 47 S 2 1552 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 51 46 S 2 1552 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 49 44 S 2 1552 1850 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst