Detailed Predictions for: Winchester
Launch Altitude (f): 1850
LZ Altitude (f): 1600
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

18 SEP 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Wed 56 51 SW 1 1430 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 56 51 W 1 1430 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 57 52 N 1 1430 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 60 55 NE 1 1430 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 65 61 SE 1 1482 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 71 69 SW 2 2441 1908 58 Blue 4
11 AM Wed 76 76 SW 5 3480 3081 1231 Blue 11
12 Noon Wed 81 82 SW 6 4925 4142 2292 Blue 17
1 PM Wed 84 85 SW 6 5272 4903 3053 Blue 20
2 PM Wed 86 86 SW 7 5375 5054 3204 Blue 21
3 PM Wed 85 84 SW 8 5168 4650 2800 Blue 19
4 PM Wed 85 83 SW 10 5065 4397 2547 Blue 18
5 PM Wed 82 78 SW 12 3905 3333 1483 Blue 13
6 PM Wed 77 72 SW 10 3000 2422 572 Blue 7
7 PM Wed 71 66 SW 9 1910 1850 0 Blue 1
8 PM Wed 66 61 S 6 1482 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 64 59 S 5 1430 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 62 57 S 3 1430 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 61 56 S 3 1430 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 60 55 SW 3 1430 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 58 53 SW 3 1430 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 57 52 SW 2 1430 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 56 51 SW 2 1430 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 56 51 SW 2 1430 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 56 51 SW 2 1430 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 55 50 S 1 1430 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 55 50 S 1 1430 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 57 52 S 2 1430 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 61 57 S 3 1430 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 66 62 S 5 1549 1850 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 71 71 SW 7 2933 2249 399 Blue 6
12 Noon Thu 75 76 SW 7 3480 3081 1231 Blue 11
1 PM Thu 78 80 SW 8 4420 3629 1779 Blue 15
2 PM Thu 79 80 SW 9 4420 3629 1779 Blue 15
3 PM Thu 78 78 SW 12 3905 3333 1483 Blue 13
4 PM Thu 78 76 S 13 3480 3081 1231 Blue 11
5 PM Thu 75 71 S 14 2933 2249 399 Blue 6
6 PM Thu 71 66 S 13 1910 1850 0 Blue 1
7 PM Thu 66 61 S 9 1482 1850 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 63 58 S 7 1430 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 60 55 S 6 1430 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 59 54 S 5 1430 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 59 54 S 3 1430 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 58 53 S 3 1430 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 57 52 S 2 1430 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 56 51 S 2 1430 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 56 51 SW 2 1430 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 55 50 SW 2 1430 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 54 49 SW 2 1430 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 54 49 S 1 1430 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 54 49 S 1 1430 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 56 51 S 2 1430 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 60 56 S 2 1430 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 65 63 W 3 1616 1850 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 71 71 NW 3 2933 2249 399 Blue 6
12 Noon Fri 77 78 NW 3 3905 3333 1483 Blue 13
1 PM Fri 82 83 NW 5 5065 4397 2547 Blue 18
2 PM Fri 86 87 NW 5 5479 5157 3307 Blue 22
3 PM Fri 88 87 NW 6 5479 5157 3307 Blue 22
4 PM Fri 87 85 W 7 5272 4903 3053 Blue 20
5 PM Fri 86 82 W 8 4925 4142 2292 Blue 17
6 PM Fri 80 75 SW 8 3340 2997 1147 Blue 10
7 PM Fri 74 69 S 7 2441 1908 58 Blue 4
8 PM Fri 68 63 S 6 1616 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 65 60 S 5 1430 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 63 58 S 3 1430 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 63 58 S 2 1430 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 62 57 SW 2 1430 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 60 55 W 2 1430 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 59 54 NW 2 1430 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 59 54 NW 1 1430 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 58 53 NW 2 1430 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 58 53 NW 2 1430 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 58 53 NW 2 1430 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 59 54 NW 2 1430 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 62 57 W 2 1430 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 69 65 W 2 1751 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 76 74 W 2 3201 2930 1080 Blue 9
11 AM Sat 83 83 NW 3 5065 4397 2547 Blue 18
12 Noon Sat 87 88 NW 3 5805 5260 3410 Blue 23
1 PM Sat 90 91 NW 3 7223 5762 3912 Blue 26
2 PM Sat 91 92 E 5 7724 6101 4251 Blue 27
3 PM Sat 91 90 E 5 6708 5466 3616 Blue 25
4 PM Sat 92 90 E 5 6708 5466 3616 Blue 25
5 PM Sat 89 85 S 9 5272 4903 3053 Blue 20
6 PM Sat 82 77 S 9 3646 3194 1344 Blue 12
7 PM Sat 75 70 S 9 2866 2125 275 Blue 5
8 PM Sat 69 64 S 5 1684 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 65 60 S 5 1430 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 63 58 S 5 1430 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 63 58 W 2 1430 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 62 57 W 2 1430 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 62 57 W 2 1430 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 61 56 E 2 1430 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 60 55 E 2 1430 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 60 55 E 2 1430 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 60 55 SE 3 1430 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 62 57 SE 3 1430 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 66 61 SE 3 1482 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 71 66 E 2 1910 1850 0 Blue 1
9 AM Sun 77 73 E 2 3085 2863 1013 Blue 8
10 AM Sun 85 83 E 2 5065 4397 2547 Blue 18
11 AM Sun 90 89 SW 6 6179 5363 3513 Blue 24
12 Noon Sun 93 93 SW 6 8212 6624 4774 Blue 28
1 PM Sun 92 93 SW 6 8212 6624 4774 Blue 28
2 PM Sun 92 92 SW 12 7724 6101 4251 Blue 27
3 PM Sun 91 90 SW 12 6708 5466 3616 Blue 25
4 PM Sun 90 87 SW 12 5479 5157 3307 Blue 22
5 PM Sun 87 83 S 13 5065 4397 2547 Blue 18
6 PM Sun 82 77 S 13 3646 3194 1344 Blue 12
7 PM Sun 76 71 S 13 2933 2249 399 Blue 6
8 PM Sun 70 65 S 7 1751 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 67 62 S 7 1549 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 65 60 S 7 1430 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 63 58 S 5 1430 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 61 56 S 5 1430 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 59 54 S 5 1430 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 58 53 S 6 1430 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 58 53 S 6 1430 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 58 53 S 6 1430 1850 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 59 54 S 3 1430 1850 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 59 54 S 3 1430 1850 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 58 53 S 3 1430 1850 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 58 53 S 9 1430 1850 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 59 55 S 9 1430 1850 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 61 59 S 9 1430 1850 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 65 64 S 7 1684 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 71 71 S 7 2933 2249 399 Blue 6
1 PM Mon 78 78 S 7 3905 3333 1483 Blue 13
2 PM Mon 84 84 S 10 5168 4650 2800 Blue 19
3 PM Mon 84 82 S 10 4925 4142 2292 Blue 17
4 PM Mon 83 80 S 10 4420 3629 1779 Blue 15
5 PM Mon 79 75 SW 13 3340 2997 1147 Blue 10
6 PM Mon 73 68 SW 13 2251 1850 0 Blue 3
7 PM Mon 68 63 SW 13 1616 1850 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 63 58 S 7 1430 1850 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 61 56 S 7 1430 1850 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 60 55 S 7 1430 1850 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 60 55 S 5 1430 1850 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 59 54 S 5 1430 1850 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 58 53 S 5 1430 1850 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 58 53 S 3 1430 1850 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 58 53 S 3 1430 1850 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 58 53 S 3 1430 1850 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst