Detailed Predictions for: Winchester
Launch Altitude (f): 1850
LZ Altitude (f): 1600
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Wed 45 40 S 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Wed 45 40 SW 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Wed 44 39 S 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Wed 44 39 S 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Wed 46 41 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Wed 52 47 SE 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Wed 54 49 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Wed 57 52 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Wed 59 54 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Wed 61 56 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Wed 60 55 SW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Wed 61 56 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Wed 60 55 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Wed 57 52 SW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Wed 55 50 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Wed 53 48 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Wed 51 46 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Wed 50 45 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Wed 50 45 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Wed 48 43 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Thu 48 43 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Thu 48 43 S 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Thu 47 42 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Thu 46 41 S 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Thu 46 41 S 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Thu 46 41 S 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 45 40 S 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 45 40 S 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 47 42 S 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 51 46 S 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 53 48 S 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 55 50 S 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 56 51 S 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 58 53 S 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 57 52 S 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 58 53 S 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 56 51 S 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 54 49 S 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 51 46 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 49 44 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 47 42 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 46 41 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 45 40 SW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 44 39 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 43 38 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 43 38 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 42 37 SW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 41 36 SE 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 42 37 S 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 41 36 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 40 35 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 40 35 S 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 43 38 S 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 50 45 S 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 54 50 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 57 54 S 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 60 57 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 62 59 W 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 62 58 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 63 58 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 61 56 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 57 52 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 54 49 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 51 46 N 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 49 44 SE 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 47 42 NW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 46 41 SW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 44 39 SW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 43 38 NW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 43 38 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 42 37 SW 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 41 36 SW 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 41 36 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 40 35 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 39 34 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 39 34 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 43 38 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 53 49 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 57 54 NE 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 62 59 NE 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 66 63 NE 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 69 66 NE 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 70 66 NE 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 70 66 NE 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 68 63 NE 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 63 58 NE 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 59 54 NE 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 56 51 E 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 53 48 E 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 50 45 E 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 49 44 E 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 47 42 E 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 46 41 E 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 46 41 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 45 40 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 43 38 N 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 43 38 SE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 42 37 SE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 41 36 SE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 41 36 NW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 45 40 NW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 54 50 NW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 59 55 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 63 60 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 67 64 NE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 70 67 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 71 67 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 70 65 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 68 63 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 63 58 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 59 54 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 56 51 N 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 52 47 N 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 50 45 N 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 49 44 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 46 41 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 45 40 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 45 40 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 44 39 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 42 37 SE 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 43 38 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 42 37 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 40 35 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 40 35 W 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 43 38 W 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 52 48 W 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 56 52 E 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 60 57 E 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 63 60 E 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 66 63 NE 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 67 63 NE 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 67 62 NE 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 64 59 E 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 60 55 E 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 56 51 E 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 53 48 E 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 50 45 E 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 48 43 E 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 47 42 E 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 45 40 E 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 44 39 E 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 44 39 NE 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 42 37 NE 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 41 36 NE 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst