Detailed Predictions for: Palomar
Launch Altitude (f): 3200
LZ Altitude (f): 925
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

21 SEP 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Fri 59 54 E 5 1342 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 59 54 E 5 1342 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 59 54 E 5 1342 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 62 57 SE 2 1342 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 69 66 S 2 1521 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 75 73 SW 3 1883 3200 0 Blue 6
11 AM Fri 81 81 W 6 2413 3200 0 Blue 14
12 Noon Fri 85 86 W 7 3333 3200 0 Blue 19
1 PM Fri 87 88 W 8 3649 3200 0 Blue 21
2 PM Fri 87 87 W 8 3459 3200 0 Blue 20
3 PM Fri 88 87 W 8 3459 3200 0 Blue 20
4 PM Fri 87 84 W 7 3113 3200 0 Blue 17
5 PM Fri 85 81 W 6 2413 3200 0 Blue 14
6 PM Fri 82 77 W 3 2011 3200 0 Blue 10
7 PM Fri 76 71 N 2 1785 3200 0 Blue 4
8 PM Fri 71 66 N 3 1521 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 68 63 NE 5 1422 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 65 60 NE 3 1342 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 64 59 NE 3 1342 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 63 58 E 3 1342 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 62 57 E 2 1342 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 62 57 E 2 1342 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 61 56 E 3 1342 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 61 56 E 3 1342 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 60 55 E 5 1342 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 60 55 E 5 1342 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 60 55 E 5 1342 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 64 59 SE 2 1342 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 71 67 SW 1 1560 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 77 75 W 2 1949 3200 0 Blue 8
11 AM Sat 84 83 W 7 3031 3200 0 Blue 16
12 Noon Sat 89 90 W 7 4065 3451 251 Blue 23
1 PM Sat 91 92 W 8 4567 3841 641 Blue 25
2 PM Sat 91 91 W 8 4273 3634 434 Blue 24
3 PM Sat 92 91 W 7 4273 3634 434 Blue 24
4 PM Sat 91 88 W 7 3649 3200 0 Blue 21
5 PM Sat 88 84 W 5 3113 3200 0 Blue 17
6 PM Sat 85 80 W 3 2231 3200 0 Blue 13
7 PM Sat 78 73 W 2 1883 3200 0 Blue 6
8 PM Sat 72 67 N 2 1560 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 69 64 N 3 1455 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 66 61 N 2 1355 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 65 60 N 3 1342 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 63 58 NE 3 1342 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 63 58 NE 5 1342 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 62 57 NE 5 1342 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 62 57 NE 3 1342 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 61 56 N 5 1342 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 60 55 N 5 1342 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 60 55 N 3 1342 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 60 55 N 3 1342 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 63 58 W 2 1342 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 70 66 W 3 1521 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 76 74 W 5 1918 3200 0 Blue 7
11 AM Sun 82 82 W 8 2943 3200 0 Blue 15
12 Noon Sun 86 87 W 8 3459 3200 0 Blue 20
1 PM Sun 88 89 W 9 3857 3325 125 Blue 22
2 PM Sun 88 88 W 9 3649 3200 0 Blue 21
3 PM Sun 89 88 W 9 3649 3200 0 Blue 21
4 PM Sun 88 85 W 8 3207 3200 0 Blue 18
5 PM Sun 86 82 W 6 2943 3200 0 Blue 15
6 PM Sun 82 77 W 3 2011 3200 0 Blue 10
7 PM Sun 75 70 W 1 1729 3200 0 Blue 3
8 PM Sun 70 65 E 1 1488 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 66 61 E 1 1355 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 64 59 E 2 1342 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 62 57 E 2 1342 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 61 56 E 2 1342 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 61 56 E 2 1342 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 60 55 E 2 1342 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 60 55 NE 2 1342 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 59 54 E 3 1342 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 58 53 NE 7 1342 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 58 53 NE 7 1342 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 58 53 NE 7 1342 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 61 56 N 3 1342 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 68 65 N 3 1488 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 74 72 N 3 1841 3200 0 Blue 5
11 AM Mon 80 80 W 8 2231 3200 0 Blue 13
12 Noon Mon 85 86 W 8 3333 3200 0 Blue 19
1 PM Mon 87 88 W 8 3649 3200 0 Blue 21
2 PM Mon 88 89 W 10 3857 3325 125 Blue 22
3 PM Mon 88 87 W 10 3459 3200 0 Blue 20
4 PM Mon 87 85 W 10 3207 3200 0 Blue 18
5 PM Mon 85 81 W 7 2413 3200 0 Blue 14
6 PM Mon 81 76 W 7 1980 3200 0 Blue 9
7 PM Mon 75 70 W 7 1729 3200 0 Blue 3
8 PM Mon 70 65 N 3 1488 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 66 61 N 3 1355 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 64 59 N 3 1342 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 62 57 NE 6 1342 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 61 56 NE 6 1342 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 60 55 NE 6 1342 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 60 55 NE 7 1342 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 60 55 NE 7 1342 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 59 54 NE 7 1342 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 58 53 NE 7 1342 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 58 53 NE 7 1342 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 58 53 NE 7 1342 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 61 56 E 3 1342 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 68 65 E 3 1488 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 74 72 E 3 1841 3200 0 Blue 5
11 AM Tue 80 80 SW 6 2231 3200 0 Blue 13
12 Noon Tue 85 86 SW 6 3333 3200 0 Blue 19
1 PM Tue 87 88 SW 6 3649 3200 0 Blue 21
2 PM Tue 88 88 W 9 3649 3200 0 Blue 21
3 PM Tue 88 87 W 9 3459 3200 0 Blue 20
4 PM Tue 87 84 W 9 3113 3200 0 Blue 17
5 PM Tue 85 81 W 6 2413 3200 0 Blue 14
6 PM Tue 82 77 W 6 2011 3200 0 Blue 10
7 PM Tue 75 70 W 6 1729 3200 0 Blue 3
8 PM Tue 70 65 NE 6 1488 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 67 62 NE 6 1389 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 65 60 NE 6 1342 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 63 58 NE 6 1342 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 62 57 NE 6 1342 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 61 56 NE 6 1342 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 61 56 NE 8 1342 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 60 55 NE 8 1342 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 60 55 NE 8 1342 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 59 54 E 8 1342 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 59 54 E 8 1342 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 59 54 E 8 1342 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 62 57 E 3 1342 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 69 65 E 3 1488 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 76 74 E 3 1918 3200 0 Blue 7
11 AM Wed 82 82 W 7 2943 3200 0 Blue 15
12 Noon Wed 87 88 W 7 3649 3200 0 Blue 21
1 PM Wed 89 90 W 7 4065 3451 251 Blue 23
2 PM Wed 90 90 W 10 4065 3451 251 Blue 23
3 PM Wed 90 89 W 10 3857 3325 125 Blue 22
4 PM Wed 89 86 W 10 3333 3200 0 Blue 19
5 PM Wed 87 83 W 6 3031 3200 0 Blue 16
6 PM Wed 83 78 W 6 2081 3200 0 Blue 11
7 PM Wed 77 72 W 6 1841 3200 0 Blue 5
8 PM Wed 72 67 E 3 1560 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 68 63 E 3 1422 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 66 61 E 3 1355 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 64 59 NE 5 1342 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 63 58 NE 5 1342 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 62 57 NE 5 1342 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 62 57 NE 3 1342 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 62 57 NE 3 1342 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 61 56 NE 3 1342 3200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst