Detailed Predictions for: Palomar
Launch Altitude (f): 3200
LZ Altitude (f): 925
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

16 SEP 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Mon 68 63 SE 5 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 69 64 SE 5 1274 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 72 67 SE 5 1379 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 75 70 SE 5 1483 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 78 74 S 6 1719 3200 0 Blue 4
10 AM Mon 81 78 S 6 2032 3200 0 Blue 8
11 AM Mon 83 81 SW 8 2645 3200 0 Blue 11
12 Noon Mon 85 84 SW 9 3509 3200 0 Blue 14
1 PM Mon 85 84 SW 9 3509 3200 0 Blue 14
2 PM Mon 86 85 SW 10 3650 3200 0 Blue 15
3 PM Mon 84 82 W 10 3081 3200 0 Blue 12
4 PM Mon 82 79 W 9 2170 3200 0 Blue 9
5 PM Mon 78 73 SW 8 1663 3200 0 Blue 3
6 PM Mon 74 69 W 7 1449 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 71 66 SW 5 1344 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 68 63 SE 3 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 66 61 SE 3 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 65 60 SE 3 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 65 60 SE 3 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 64 59 SE 3 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 64 59 SE 3 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 63 58 E 3 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 62 57 E 3 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 61 56 E 3 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 61 56 NE 3 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 62 57 N 2 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 64 59 NW 2 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 67 62 W 3 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 71 67 W 3 1379 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 75 73 W 5 1663 3200 0 Blue 3
11 AM Tue 78 78 W 6 2032 3200 0 Blue 8
12 Noon Tue 82 83 W 8 3327 3200 0 Blue 13
1 PM Tue 84 86 W 9 3797 3313 113 Blue 16
2 PM Tue 84 85 W 10 3650 3200 0 Blue 15
3 PM Tue 84 84 W 10 3509 3200 0 Blue 14
4 PM Tue 82 80 W 9 2310 3200 0 Blue 10
5 PM Tue 78 74 W 8 1719 3200 0 Blue 4
6 PM Tue 74 69 SW 6 1449 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 70 65 S 3 1309 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 67 62 SE 2 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 65 60 SE 2 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 65 60 E 2 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 64 59 E 3 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 64 59 E 3 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 63 58 E 3 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 62 57 E 3 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 61 56 SE 3 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 60 55 SE 5 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 60 55 SE 5 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 62 57 SE 5 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 65 60 SE 3 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 68 63 S 3 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 71 67 S 5 1379 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 73 71 SW 5 1539 3200 0 Blue 1
11 AM Wed 76 76 SW 7 1832 3200 0 Blue 6
12 Noon Wed 79 80 SW 8 2310 3200 0 Blue 10
1 PM Wed 81 82 SW 9 3081 3200 0 Blue 12
2 PM Wed 81 82 SW 10 3081 3200 0 Blue 12
3 PM Wed 82 81 SW 10 2645 3200 0 Blue 11
4 PM Wed 80 78 SW 9 2032 3200 0 Blue 8
5 PM Wed 77 73 SW 8 1663 3200 0 Blue 3
6 PM Wed 72 67 SW 7 1379 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 67 62 S 5 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 63 58 S 3 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 61 56 S 3 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 60 55 SE 3 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 60 55 SE 3 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 60 55 SE 3 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 59 54 E 3 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 58 53 E 3 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 57 52 E 5 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 56 51 E 5 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 56 51 SE 5 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 57 52 SE 5 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 59 54 SE 5 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 61 56 S 6 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 64 61 S 6 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 68 66 S 6 1344 3200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 71 71 SW 8 1539 3200 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Thu 74 75 SW 8 1776 3200 0 Blue 5
1 PM Thu 76 77 SW 8 1894 3200 0 Blue 7
2 PM Thu 77 78 SW 12 2032 3200 0 Blue 8
3 PM Thu 76 75 SW 12 1776 3200 0 Blue 5
4 PM Thu 76 74 SW 12 1719 3200 0 Blue 4
5 PM Thu 72 68 SW 9 1414 3200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 68 63 SW 9 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 63 58 SW 9 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 59 54 S 3 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 57 52 S 3 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 56 51 S 3 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 57 52 N 5 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 57 52 N 5 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 57 52 N 5 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 56 51 N 5 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 55 50 N 5 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 54 49 N 5 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 55 50 NE 5 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 58 53 NE 5 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 62 57 NE 5 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 68 63 E 3 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 73 70 E 3 1483 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 77 75 E 3 1776 3200 0 Blue 5
11 AM Fri 80 80 W 6 2310 3200 0 Blue 10
12 Noon Fri 82 83 W 6 3327 3200 0 Blue 13
1 PM Fri 83 84 W 6 3509 3200 0 Blue 14
2 PM Fri 84 85 W 8 3650 3200 0 Blue 15
3 PM Fri 83 82 W 8 3081 3200 0 Blue 12
4 PM Fri 84 82 W 8 3081 3200 0 Blue 12
5 PM Fri 81 77 W 6 1894 3200 0 Blue 7
6 PM Fri 77 72 W 6 1607 3200 0 Blue 2
7 PM Fri 72 67 W 6 1379 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 67 62 NE 2 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 65 60 NE 2 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 65 60 NE 2 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 65 60 NE 6 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 65 60 NE 6 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 65 60 NE 6 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 64 59 NE 5 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 62 57 NE 5 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 62 57 NE 5 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 63 58 E 7 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 67 62 E 7 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 72 67 E 7 1379 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 77 72 E 5 1607 3200 0 Blue 2
9 AM Sat 81 78 E 5 2032 3200 0 Blue 8
10 AM Sat 83 81 E 5 2645 3200 0 Blue 11
11 AM Sat 85 85 W 6 3650 3200 0 Blue 15
12 Noon Sat 86 87 W 6 3945 3500 300 Blue 17
1 PM Sat 87 88 W 6 4151 3640 440 Blue 18
2 PM Sat 87 88 W 8 4151 3640 440 Blue 18
3 PM Sat 87 86 W 8 3797 3313 113 Blue 16
4 PM Sat 87 85 W 8 3650 3200 0 Blue 15
5 PM Sat 85 81 W 6 2645 3200 0 Blue 11
6 PM Sat 81 76 W 6 1832 3200 0 Blue 6
7 PM Sat 76 71 W 6 1539 3200 0 Blue 1
8 PM Sat 72 67 E 2 1379 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 70 65 E 2 1309 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 69 64 E 2 1274 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 69 64 NE 3 1274 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 69 64 NE 3 1274 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 68 63 NE 3 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 67 62 NE 5 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 65 60 NE 5 1266 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 64 59 NE 5 1266 3200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst