Detailed Predictions for: Palomar
Launch Altitude (f): 3200
LZ Altitude (f): 925
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

11 NOV 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Mon 59 54 E 5 1381 3200 0 White 0
5 AM Mon 60 55 E 5 1582 3200 0 White 0
6 AM Mon 62 57 E 5 1814 3200 0 Blue 2
7 AM Mon 65 60 E 5 1860 3200 0 Blue 5
8 AM Mon 69 64 E 2 1918 3200 0 Blue 9
9 AM Mon 72 68 E 1 2073 3200 0 Blue 13
10 AM Mon 75 72 W 3 2475 3200 0 Blue 17
11 AM Mon 77 75 W 5 2817 3200 0 Blue 20
12 Noon Mon 79 77 W 5 3056 3200 0 Blue 22
1 PM Mon 78 76 W 6 2934 3200 0 Blue 21
2 PM Mon 78 75 W 6 2817 3200 0 Blue 20
3 PM Mon 75 71 W 5 2419 3200 0 Blue 16
4 PM Mon 72 67 NW 2 2020 3200 0 Blue 12
5 PM Mon 69 64 N 2 1918 3200 0 Blue 9
6 PM Mon 66 61 N 3 1875 3200 0 Blue 6
7 PM Mon 64 59 NE 5 1845 3200 0 Blue 4
8 PM Mon 63 58 NE 5 1831 3200 0 Blue 3
9 PM Mon 63 58 NE 6 1831 3200 0 Blue 3
10 PM Mon 63 58 E 7 1831 3200 0 Blue 3
11 PM Mon 63 58 E 7 1831 3200 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Tue 63 58 E 7 1831 3200 0 Blue 3
1 AM Tue 62 57 E 8 1814 3200 0 Blue 2
2 AM Tue 61 56 E 7 1766 3200 0 Blue 1
3 AM Tue 60 55 E 7 1582 3200 0 White 0
4 AM Tue 60 55 E 7 1582 3200 0 White 0
5 AM Tue 61 56 E 7 1766 3200 0 Blue 1
6 AM Tue 64 59 E 7 1845 3200 0 Blue 4
7 AM Tue 67 62 E 7 1889 3200 0 Blue 7
8 AM Tue 72 67 SE 6 2020 3200 0 Blue 12
9 AM Tue 76 72 SW 5 2475 3200 0 Blue 17
10 AM Tue 80 77 W 3 3056 3200 0 Blue 22
11 AM Tue 82 80 W 5 3801 3200 0 Blue 25
12 Noon Tue 82 80 W 6 3801 3200 0 Blue 25
1 PM Tue 83 81 W 6 4550 3200 0 Blue 26
2 PM Tue 81 78 W 5 3203 3200 0 Blue 23
3 PM Tue 79 75 W 3 2817 3200 0 Blue 20
4 PM Tue 77 72 W 2 2475 3200 0 Blue 17
5 PM Tue 73 68 NW 2 2073 3200 0 Blue 13
6 PM Tue 70 65 N 3 1934 3200 0 Blue 10
7 PM Tue 67 62 NE 3 1889 3200 0 Blue 7
8 PM Tue 65 60 NE 5 1860 3200 0 Blue 5
9 PM Tue 64 59 NE 3 1845 3200 0 Blue 4
10 PM Tue 63 58 NE 3 1831 3200 0 Blue 3
11 PM Tue 63 58 NE 3 1831 3200 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Wed 62 57 E 3 1814 3200 0 Blue 2
1 AM Wed 62 57 E 3 1814 3200 0 Blue 2
2 AM Wed 62 57 NE 3 1814 3200 0 Blue 2
3 AM Wed 62 57 NE 3 1814 3200 0 Blue 2
4 AM Wed 62 57 NE 3 1814 3200 0 Blue 2
5 AM Wed 63 58 NE 3 1831 3200 0 Blue 3
6 AM Wed 65 60 NE 2 1860 3200 0 Blue 5
7 AM Wed 67 62 NE 2 1889 3200 0 Blue 7
8 AM Wed 70 65 N 3 1934 3200 0 Blue 10
9 AM Wed 74 70 W 3 2320 3200 0 Blue 15
10 AM Wed 78 74 W 5 2731 3200 0 Blue 19
11 AM Wed 80 77 W 6 3056 3200 0 Blue 22
12 Noon Wed 80 77 W 7 3056 3200 0 Blue 22
1 PM Wed 81 77 W 8 3056 3200 0 Blue 22
2 PM Wed 79 75 W 7 2817 3200 0 Blue 20
3 PM Wed 76 71 W 5 2419 3200 0 Blue 16
4 PM Wed 73 68 W 2 2073 3200 0 Blue 13
5 PM Wed 70 65 SW 2 1934 3200 0 Blue 10
6 PM Wed 67 62 SE 2 1889 3200 0 Blue 7
7 PM Wed 65 60 E 2 1860 3200 0 Blue 5
8 PM Wed 64 59 E 2 1845 3200 0 Blue 4
9 PM Wed 63 58 E 2 1831 3200 0 Blue 3
10 PM Wed 63 58 SE 2 1831 3200 0 Blue 3
11 PM Wed 63 58 E 2 1831 3200 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Thu 63 58 E 2 1831 3200 0 Blue 3
1 AM Thu 63 58 E 3 1831 3200 0 Blue 3
2 AM Thu 62 57 E 3 1814 3200 0 Blue 2
3 AM Thu 61 56 SE 3 1766 3200 0 Blue 1
4 AM Thu 60 55 SE 3 1582 3200 0 White 0
5 AM Thu 60 55 SE 3 1582 3200 0 White 0
6 AM Thu 61 56 SE 3 1766 3200 0 Blue 1
7 AM Thu 62 57 E 3 1814 3200 0 Blue 2
8 AM Thu 66 61 E 3 1875 3200 0 Blue 6
9 AM Thu 70 65 E 3 1934 3200 0 Blue 10
10 AM Thu 73 69 SW 5 2166 3200 0 Blue 14
11 AM Thu 75 72 SW 5 2475 3200 0 Blue 17
12 Noon Thu 75 72 SW 5 2475 3200 0 Blue 17
1 PM Thu 75 71 W 7 2419 3200 0 Blue 16
2 PM Thu 74 70 W 7 2320 3200 0 Blue 15
3 PM Thu 71 66 W 7 1977 3200 0 Blue 11
4 PM Thu 69 64 W 3 1918 3200 0 Blue 9
5 PM Thu 66 61 W 3 1875 3200 0 Blue 6
6 PM Thu 64 59 W 3 1845 3200 0 Blue 4
7 PM Thu 62 57 N 2 1814 3200 0 Blue 2
8 PM Thu 61 56 N 2 1766 3200 0 Blue 1
9 PM Thu 60 55 N 2 1582 3200 0 White 0
10 PM Thu 59 54 NE 3 1381 3200 0 White 0
11 PM Thu 60 55 NE 3 1582 3200 0 White 0
12 Midnight Fri 60 55 NE 3 1582 3200 0 White 0
1 AM Fri 60 55 E 2 1582 3200 0 White 0
2 AM Fri 59 54 E 2 1381 3200 0 White 0
3 AM Fri 58 53 E 2 440 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 57 52 NE 2 440 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 57 52 NE 2 440 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 58 53 NE 2 440 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 61 56 E 3 1766 3200 0 Blue 1
8 AM Fri 64 59 E 3 1845 3200 0 Blue 4
9 AM Fri 68 63 E 3 1904 3200 0 Blue 8
10 AM Fri 72 69 W 5 2166 3200 0 Blue 14
11 AM Fri 74 71 W 5 2419 3200 0 Blue 16
12 Noon Fri 76 73 W 5 2574 3200 0 Blue 18
1 PM Fri 75 72 W 7 2475 3200 0 Blue 17
2 PM Fri 75 71 W 7 2419 3200 0 Blue 16
3 PM Fri 74 69 W 7 2166 3200 0 Blue 14
4 PM Fri 71 66 W 3 1977 3200 0 Blue 11
5 PM Fri 67 62 W 3 1889 3200 0 Blue 7
6 PM Fri 63 58 W 3 1831 3200 0 Blue 3
7 PM Fri 60 55 NE 6 1582 3200 0 White 0
8 PM Fri 60 55 NE 6 1582 3200 0 White 0
9 PM Fri 61 56 NE 6 1766 3200 0 Blue 1
10 PM Fri 62 57 NE 7 1814 3200 0 Blue 2
11 PM Fri 62 57 NE 7 1814 3200 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Sat 61 56 NE 7 1766 3200 0 Blue 1
1 AM Sat 60 55 NE 7 1582 3200 0 White 0
2 AM Sat 59 54 NE 7 1381 3200 0 White 0
3 AM Sat 58 53 NE 7 440 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 59 54 E 6 1381 3200 0 White 0
5 AM Sat 61 56 E 6 1766 3200 0 Blue 1
6 AM Sat 64 59 E 6 1845 3200 0 Blue 4
7 AM Sat 67 62 E 8 1889 3200 0 Blue 7
8 AM Sat 71 66 E 8 1977 3200 0 Blue 11
9 AM Sat 74 70 E 8 2320 3200 0 Blue 15
10 AM Sat 77 74 W 3 2731 3200 0 Blue 19
11 AM Sat 79 77 W 3 3056 3200 0 Blue 22
12 Noon Sat 79 77 W 3 3056 3200 0 Blue 22
1 PM Sat 80 78 W 7 3203 3200 0 Blue 23
2 PM Sat 78 75 W 7 2817 3200 0 Blue 20
3 PM Sat 75 71 W 7 2419 3200 0 Blue 16
4 PM Sat 72 67 SW 2 2020 3200 0 Blue 12
5 PM Sat 70 65 SW 2 1934 3200 0 Blue 10
6 PM Sat 68 63 SW 2 1904 3200 0 Blue 8
7 PM Sat 67 62 NE 14 1889 3200 0 Blue 7
8 PM Sat 67 62 NE 14 1889 3200 0 Blue 7
9 PM Sat 66 61 NE 14 1875 3200 0 Blue 6
10 PM Sat 66 61 NE 15 1875 3200 0 Blue 6
11 PM Sat 66 61 NE 15 1875 3200 0 Blue 6
12 Midnight Sun 65 60 NE 15 1860 3200 0 Blue 5
1 AM Sun 65 60 NE 15 1860 3200 0 Blue 5
2 AM Sun 65 60 NE 15 1860 3200 0 Blue 5
3 AM Sun 64 59 NE 15 1845 3200 0 Blue 4

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst