Detailed Predictions for: Palomar
Launch Altitude (f): 3200
LZ Altitude (f): 925
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

20 JUL 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Fri 66 61 E 1 1352 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 67 62 E 1 1352 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 70 65 SE 1 1440 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 73 69 SW 2 1683 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 76 73 SW 3 2080 3200 0 Blue 4
10 AM Fri 79 78 W 3 2569 3200 0 Blue 9
11 AM Fri 82 81 W 7 3090 3200 0 Blue 12
12 Noon Fri 84 84 W 7 3781 3200 0 Blue 15
1 PM Fri 85 85 W 7 4061 3260 60 Blue 16
2 PM Fri 85 85 W 8 4061 3260 60 Blue 16
3 PM Fri 86 85 W 8 4061 3260 60 Blue 16
4 PM Fri 84 82 W 8 3270 3200 0 Blue 13
5 PM Fri 82 79 W 7 2730 3200 0 Blue 10
6 PM Fri 78 73 W 6 2080 3200 0 Blue 4
7 PM Fri 73 68 W 6 1620 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 70 65 W 2 1440 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 68 63 W 2 1352 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 67 62 W 2 1352 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 66 61 NW 1 1352 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 66 61 W 1 1352 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 65 60 W 1 1352 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 64 59 W 0 1352 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 63 58 W 1 1352 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 63 58 SW 0 1352 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 63 58 E 0 1352 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 64 59 S 0 1352 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 66 61 W 1 1352 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 69 65 W 2 1440 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 74 71 W 3 1855 3200 0 Blue 2
10 AM Sat 79 78 W 3 2569 3200 0 Blue 9
11 AM Sat 83 83 W 7 3498 3200 0 Blue 14
12 Noon Sat 86 87 W 7 4461 3760 560 Blue 18
1 PM Sat 87 89 W 7 4775 4289 1089 Blue 20
2 PM Sat 86 87 W 8 4461 3760 560 Blue 18
3 PM Sat 86 86 W 8 4303 3480 280 Blue 17
4 PM Sat 85 84 W 8 3781 3200 0 Blue 15
5 PM Sat 82 79 W 6 2730 3200 0 Blue 10
6 PM Sat 77 73 W 6 2080 3200 0 Blue 4
7 PM Sat 72 67 W 6 1560 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 68 63 W 2 1352 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 66 61 W 2 1352 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 66 61 W 2 1352 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 66 61 NW 1 1352 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 66 61 N 1 1352 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 65 60 N 1 1352 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 65 60 N 2 1352 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 64 59 N 2 1352 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 64 59 N 2 1352 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 64 59 NE 3 1352 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 66 61 NE 3 1352 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 68 63 N 2 1352 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 71 67 NW 3 1560 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 76 73 W 5 2080 3200 0 Blue 4
10 AM Sun 80 79 W 6 2730 3200 0 Blue 10
11 AM Sun 84 85 W 8 4061 3260 60 Blue 16
12 Noon Sun 87 89 W 9 4775 4289 1089 Blue 20
1 PM Sun 89 92 W 8 5720 4758 1558 Blue 23
2 PM Sun 89 91 W 8 5446 4602 1402 Blue 22
3 PM Sun 90 91 W 7 5446 4602 1402 Blue 22
4 PM Sun 89 88 W 7 4618 4038 838 Blue 19
5 PM Sun 86 83 W 6 3498 3200 0 Blue 14
6 PM Sun 82 78 W 3 2569 3200 0 Blue 9
7 PM Sun 78 73 NW 1 2080 3200 0 Blue 4
8 PM Sun 74 69 NW 1 1683 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 73 68 NW 2 1620 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 73 68 N 5 1620 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 74 69 N 6 1683 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 74 69 N 6 1683 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 73 68 N 6 1620 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 71 66 N 6 1500 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 69 64 N 5 1380 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 68 63 N 5 1352 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 69 64 N 5 1380 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 73 68 N 5 1620 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 79 74 N 5 2206 3200 0 Blue 5
8 AM Mon 84 80 NW 3 2910 3200 0 Blue 11
9 AM Mon 89 86 NW 3 4303 3480 280 Blue 17
10 AM Mon 92 91 NW 3 5446 4602 1402 Blue 22
11 AM Mon 94 95 W 7 6532 5682 2482 Blue 26
12 Noon Mon 95 97 W 7 6879 6221 3021 Blue 28
1 PM Mon 96 99 W 7 7949 6713 3513 Blue 30
2 PM Mon 97 99 W 8 7949 6713 3513 Blue 30
3 PM Mon 98 99 W 8 7949 6713 3513 Blue 30
4 PM Mon 98 97 W 8 6879 6221 3021 Blue 28
5 PM Mon 96 93 W 7 5992 5137 1937 Blue 24
6 PM Mon 92 88 W 7 4618 4038 838 Blue 19
7 PM Mon 87 82 W 7 3270 3200 0 Blue 13
8 PM Mon 81 76 S 1 2388 3200 0 Blue 7
9 PM Mon 77 72 S 1 1955 3200 0 Blue 3
10 PM Mon 75 70 S 1 1769 3200 0 Blue 1
11 PM Mon 74 69 N 6 1683 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 74 69 N 6 1683 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 75 70 N 6 1769 3200 0 Blue 1
2 AM Tue 74 69 N 7 1683 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 72 67 N 7 1560 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 70 65 N 7 1440 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 70 65 NE 5 1440 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 74 69 NE 5 1683 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 80 75 NE 5 2297 3200 0 Blue 6
8 AM Tue 86 82 NW 3 3270 3200 0 Blue 13
9 AM Tue 90 87 NW 3 4461 3760 560 Blue 18
10 AM Tue 92 91 NW 3 5446 4602 1402 Blue 22
11 AM Tue 94 95 W 7 6532 5682 2482 Blue 26
12 Noon Tue 97 99 W 7 7949 6713 3513 Blue 30
1 PM Tue 100 102 W 7 9239 7816 4616 Blue 33
2 PM Tue 102 104 W 9 9892 8830 5630 Blue 35
3 PM Tue 102 103 W 9 9565 8436 5236 Blue 34
4 PM Tue 101 100 W 9 8576 6854 3654 Blue 31
5 PM Tue 99 96 W 7 6737 5953 2753 Blue 27
6 PM Tue 95 91 W 7 5446 4602 1402 Blue 22
7 PM Tue 91 86 W 7 4303 3480 280 Blue 17
8 PM Tue 87 82 N 0 3270 3200 0 Blue 13
9 PM Tue 83 78 N 0 2569 3200 0 Blue 9
10 PM Tue 81 76 N 0 2388 3200 0 Blue 7
11 PM Tue 79 74 N 5 2206 3200 0 Blue 5
12 Midnight Wed 78 73 N 5 2080 3200 0 Blue 4
1 AM Wed 76 71 N 5 1855 3200 0 Blue 2
2 AM Wed 75 70 N 6 1769 3200 0 Blue 1
3 AM Wed 74 69 N 6 1683 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 73 68 N 6 1620 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 74 69 NE 6 1683 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 78 73 NE 6 2080 3200 0 Blue 4
7 AM Wed 84 79 NE 6 2730 3200 0 Blue 10
8 AM Wed 89 85 W 5 4061 3260 60 Blue 16
9 AM Wed 93 90 W 5 5170 4446 1246 Blue 21
10 AM Wed 95 94 W 5 6263 5411 2211 Blue 25
11 AM Wed 98 100 W 8 8576 6854 3654 Blue 31
12 Noon Wed 99 102 W 8 9239 7816 4616 Blue 33
1 PM Wed 101 104 W 8 9892 8830 5630 Blue 35
2 PM Wed 102 105 W 10 10229 9156 5956 Blue 36
3 PM Wed 102 103 W 10 9565 8436 5236 Blue 34
4 PM Wed 101 100 W 10 8576 6854 3654 Blue 31
5 PM Wed 98 95 W 7 6532 5682 2482 Blue 26
6 PM Wed 93 89 W 7 4775 4289 1089 Blue 20
7 PM Wed 88 83 W 7 3498 3200 0 Blue 14
8 PM Wed 82 77 NE 1 2478 3200 0 Blue 8
9 PM Wed 79 74 NE 1 2206 3200 0 Blue 5
10 PM Wed 77 72 NE 1 1955 3200 0 Blue 3
11 PM Wed 76 71 N 3 1855 3200 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Thu 76 71 N 3 1855 3200 0 Blue 2
1 AM Thu 76 71 N 3 1855 3200 0 Blue 2
2 AM Thu 75 70 NE 5 1769 3200 0 Blue 1
3 AM Thu 73 68 NE 5 1620 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 71 66 NE 5 1500 3200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst