Detailed Predictions for: Palomar
Launch Altitude (f): 3200
LZ Altitude (f): 925
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

21 JUL 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 64 59 E 2 1260 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 65 60 E 2 1347 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 67 62 E 2 1940 3200 0 White 0
8 AM Sun 66 62 S 2 1940 3200 0 White 0
9 AM Sun 69 67 W 2 2153 3200 0 Blue 5
10 AM Sun 74 74 W 3 2362 3200 0 Blue 12
11 AM Sun 83 84 W 5 3656 3200 0 Blue 22
12 Noon Sun 88 90 W 6 4471 4069 869 Blue 28
1 PM Sun 90 92 W 7 4731 4329 1129 Blue 30
2 PM Sun 90 92 W 8 4731 4329 1129 Blue 30
3 PM Sun 90 91 W 8 4601 4199 999 Blue 29
4 PM Sun 90 89 W 7 4341 3940 740 Blue 27
5 PM Sun 89 86 W 6 3950 3380 180 Blue 24
6 PM Sun 86 82 W 6 3136 3200 0 Blue 20
7 PM Sun 83 78 W 5 2667 3200 0 Blue 16
8 PM Sun 77 72 NW 2 2259 3200 0 Blue 10
9 PM Sun 73 68 N 2 2173 3200 0 Blue 6
10 PM Sun 70 65 N 2 2110 3200 0 Blue 3
11 PM Sun 69 64 NE 2 2088 3200 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Mon 68 63 NE 2 2063 3200 0 Blue 1
1 AM Mon 68 63 NE 2 2063 3200 0 Blue 1
2 AM Mon 68 63 E 2 2063 3200 0 Blue 1
3 AM Mon 69 64 E 2 2088 3200 0 Blue 2
4 AM Mon 69 64 E 2 2088 3200 0 Blue 2
5 AM Mon 68 63 SE 2 2063 3200 0 Blue 1
6 AM Mon 69 64 SE 2 2088 3200 0 Blue 2
7 AM Mon 70 65 S 2 2110 3200 0 Blue 3
8 AM Mon 69 65 S 2 2110 3200 0 Blue 3
9 AM Mon 72 69 S 2 2193 3200 0 Blue 7
10 AM Mon 77 75 SW 3 2413 3200 0 Blue 13
11 AM Mon 85 84 SW 5 3656 3200 0 Blue 22
12 Noon Mon 89 89 SW 6 4341 3940 740 Blue 27
1 PM Mon 91 91 W 7 4601 4199 999 Blue 29
2 PM Mon 91 91 W 8 4601 4199 999 Blue 29
3 PM Mon 91 90 W 8 4471 4069 869 Blue 28
4 PM Mon 91 89 SW 8 4341 3940 740 Blue 27
5 PM Mon 90 86 SW 7 3950 3380 180 Blue 24
6 PM Mon 87 82 W 6 3136 3200 0 Blue 20
7 PM Mon 84 79 NW 5 2768 3200 0 Blue 17
8 PM Mon 79 74 NW 2 2362 3200 0 Blue 12
9 PM Mon 74 69 N 2 2193 3200 0 Blue 7
10 PM Mon 72 67 N 2 2153 3200 0 Blue 5
11 PM Mon 71 66 NE 2 2131 3200 0 Blue 4
12 Midnight Tue 70 65 NE 1 2110 3200 0 Blue 3
1 AM Tue 70 65 NE 1 2110 3200 0 Blue 3
2 AM Tue 70 65 NE 2 2110 3200 0 Blue 3
3 AM Tue 71 66 NE 2 2131 3200 0 Blue 4
4 AM Tue 71 66 NE 2 2131 3200 0 Blue 4
5 AM Tue 70 65 E 3 2110 3200 0 Blue 3
6 AM Tue 71 66 E 2 2131 3200 0 Blue 4
7 AM Tue 72 67 S 2 2153 3200 0 Blue 5
8 AM Tue 71 66 SW 2 2131 3200 0 Blue 4
9 AM Tue 74 71 SW 2 2232 3200 0 Blue 9
10 AM Tue 79 77 W 5 2544 3200 0 Blue 15
11 AM Tue 86 84 W 6 3656 3200 0 Blue 22
12 Noon Tue 90 89 W 7 4341 3940 740 Blue 27
1 PM Tue 92 91 W 7 4601 4199 999 Blue 29
2 PM Tue 92 91 W 8 4601 4199 999 Blue 29
3 PM Tue 92 90 W 8 4471 4069 869 Blue 28
4 PM Tue 92 89 W 7 4341 3940 740 Blue 27
5 PM Tue 91 87 W 6 4080 3637 437 Blue 25
6 PM Tue 88 83 W 5 3396 3200 0 Blue 21
7 PM Tue 85 80 S 3 2832 3200 0 Blue 18
8 PM Tue 80 75 S 2 2413 3200 0 Blue 13
9 PM Tue 76 71 SE 1 2232 3200 0 Blue 9
10 PM Tue 74 69 NE 1 2193 3200 0 Blue 7
11 PM Tue 73 68 N 2 2173 3200 0 Blue 6
12 Midnight Wed 72 67 N 2 2153 3200 0 Blue 5
1 AM Wed 72 67 NE 2 2153 3200 0 Blue 5
2 AM Wed 72 67 NE 3 2153 3200 0 Blue 5
3 AM Wed 73 68 NE 3 2173 3200 0 Blue 6
4 AM Wed 73 68 E 5 2173 3200 0 Blue 6
5 AM Wed 72 67 E 5 2153 3200 0 Blue 5
6 AM Wed 73 68 E 5 2173 3200 0 Blue 6
7 AM Wed 74 69 E 5 2193 3200 0 Blue 7
8 AM Wed 73 69 SE 5 2193 3200 0 Blue 7
9 AM Wed 76 73 SE 5 2310 3200 0 Blue 11
10 AM Wed 80 78 SE 5 2667 3200 0 Blue 16
11 AM Wed 87 86 W 6 3950 3380 180 Blue 24
12 Noon Wed 91 90 W 6 4471 4069 869 Blue 28
1 PM Wed 93 93 W 6 4862 4458 1258 Blue 31
2 PM Wed 93 92 N 8 4731 4329 1129 Blue 30
3 PM Wed 93 92 N 8 4731 4329 1129 Blue 30
4 PM Wed 93 90 N 8 4471 4069 869 Blue 28
5 PM Wed 92 88 W 7 4211 3810 610 Blue 26
6 PM Wed 89 84 W 7 3656 3200 0 Blue 22
7 PM Wed 86 81 W 7 2896 3200 0 Blue 19
8 PM Wed 80 75 SW 2 2413 3200 0 Blue 13
9 PM Wed 76 71 SW 2 2232 3200 0 Blue 9
10 PM Wed 74 69 SW 2 2193 3200 0 Blue 7
11 PM Wed 72 67 N 2 2153 3200 0 Blue 5
12 Midnight Thu 72 67 N 2 2153 3200 0 Blue 5
1 AM Thu 71 66 N 2 2131 3200 0 Blue 4
2 AM Thu 71 66 N 2 2131 3200 0 Blue 4
3 AM Thu 72 67 N 2 2153 3200 0 Blue 5
4 AM Thu 72 67 N 2 2153 3200 0 Blue 5
5 AM Thu 71 66 NE 2 2131 3200 0 Blue 4
6 AM Thu 72 67 NE 2 2153 3200 0 Blue 5
7 AM Thu 74 69 NE 2 2193 3200 0 Blue 7
8 AM Thu 72 68 W 2 2173 3200 0 Blue 6
9 AM Thu 75 72 W 2 2259 3200 0 Blue 10
10 AM Thu 80 78 W 2 2667 3200 0 Blue 16
11 AM Thu 88 88 W 6 4211 3810 610 Blue 26
12 Noon Thu 92 93 W 6 4862 4458 1258 Blue 31
1 PM Thu 94 96 W 6 5250 4847 1647 Blue 34
2 PM Thu 94 95 W 8 5121 4718 1518 Blue 33
3 PM Thu 94 94 W 8 4991 4588 1388 Blue 32
4 PM Thu 94 92 W 8 4731 4329 1129 Blue 30
5 PM Thu 93 90 W 7 4471 4069 869 Blue 28
6 PM Thu 89 85 W 7 3820 3200 0 Blue 23
7 PM Thu 86 81 W 7 2896 3200 0 Blue 19
8 PM Thu 80 75 W 2 2413 3200 0 Blue 13
9 PM Thu 75 70 W 2 2212 3200 0 Blue 8
10 PM Thu 73 68 W 2 2173 3200 0 Blue 6
11 PM Thu 71 66 N 2 2131 3200 0 Blue 4
12 Midnight Fri 70 65 N 2 2110 3200 0 Blue 3
1 AM Fri 70 65 N 2 2110 3200 0 Blue 3
2 AM Fri 70 65 NE 2 2110 3200 0 Blue 3
3 AM Fri 71 66 NE 2 2131 3200 0 Blue 4
4 AM Fri 71 66 NE 2 2131 3200 0 Blue 4
5 AM Fri 70 65 N 2 2110 3200 0 Blue 3
6 AM Fri 71 66 N 2 2131 3200 0 Blue 4
7 AM Fri 72 67 N 2 2153 3200 0 Blue 5
8 AM Fri 71 67 W 2 2153 3200 0 Blue 5
9 AM Fri 74 71 W 2 2232 3200 0 Blue 9
10 AM Fri 79 78 W 2 2667 3200 0 Blue 16
11 AM Fri 86 87 W 6 4080 3637 437 Blue 25
12 Noon Fri 90 92 W 6 4731 4329 1129 Blue 30
1 PM Fri 92 95 W 6 5121 4718 1518 Blue 33
2 PM Fri 92 94 W 9 4991 4588 1388 Blue 32
3 PM Fri 92 93 W 9 4862 4458 1258 Blue 31
4 PM Fri 92 91 W 9 4601 4199 999 Blue 29
5 PM Fri 91 88 W 7 4211 3810 610 Blue 26
6 PM Fri 87 83 W 7 3396 3200 0 Blue 21
7 PM Fri 84 79 W 7 2768 3200 0 Blue 17
8 PM Fri 78 73 W 3 2310 3200 0 Blue 11
9 PM Fri 73 68 W 3 2173 3200 0 Blue 6
10 PM Fri 71 66 W 3 2131 3200 0 Blue 4
11 PM Fri 69 64 N 2 2088 3200 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Sat 68 63 N 2 2063 3200 0 Blue 1
1 AM Sat 68 63 N 2 2063 3200 0 Blue 1
2 AM Sat 68 63 N 3 2063 3200 0 Blue 1
3 AM Sat 69 64 N 3 2088 3200 0 Blue 2
4 AM Sat 69 64 N 3 2088 3200 0 Blue 2

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst