Detailed Predictions for: Palomar
Launch Altitude (f): 3200
LZ Altitude (f): 925
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Wed 44 39 S 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Wed 45 40 S 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Wed 44 39 S 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Wed 44 39 SE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Wed 46 41 SE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Wed 52 47 SE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Wed 57 52 SE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Wed 60 55 SE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Wed 62 57 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Wed 64 59 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Wed 63 58 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Wed 64 59 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Wed 62 57 S 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Wed 58 53 S 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Wed 54 49 S 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Wed 52 47 SE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Wed 51 46 SE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Wed 50 45 SE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Wed 49 44 SE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Wed 48 43 SE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Thu 48 43 SE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Thu 48 43 SE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Thu 47 42 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Thu 48 43 SE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Thu 46 41 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Thu 47 42 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 46 41 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 46 41 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 47 42 S 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 52 47 S 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 55 50 S 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 57 52 S 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 59 54 S 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 60 55 S 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 59 54 S 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 60 55 S 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 58 53 S 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 54 49 S 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 50 45 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 49 44 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 47 42 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 47 42 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 46 41 NW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 45 40 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 45 40 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 45 40 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 44 39 NW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 44 39 NW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 44 39 W 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 44 39 SE 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 44 39 S 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 43 38 E 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 45 40 SE 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 51 46 S 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 56 52 SW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 59 56 SW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 61 58 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 63 60 W 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 62 58 W 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 62 57 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 61 56 NW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 57 52 NW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 52 47 NW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 50 45 NE 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 49 44 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 48 43 NE 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 47 42 NE 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 46 41 NE 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 46 41 NE 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 46 41 NE 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 45 40 NE 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 46 41 NE 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 45 40 NE 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 45 40 NE 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 45 40 NE 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 44 39 NE 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 47 42 NE 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 55 51 NE 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 61 58 E 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 66 63 E 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 69 66 E 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 71 68 E 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 71 67 E 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 70 66 E 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 68 63 E 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 63 58 E 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 57 52 E 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 55 50 E 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 52 47 E 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 52 47 E 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 50 45 E 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 49 44 E 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 49 44 E 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 49 44 E 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 48 43 E 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 48 43 E 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 47 42 E 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 48 43 E 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 47 42 E 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 46 41 E 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 49 44 E 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 56 52 E 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 62 58 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 67 64 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 70 67 W 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 72 69 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 72 68 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 71 66 W 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 69 64 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 63 58 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 56 51 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 54 49 E 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 51 46 E 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 50 45 E 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 49 44 NE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 48 43 NE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 47 42 NE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 47 42 NE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 46 41 NE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 46 41 NE 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 45 40 NE 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 46 41 NE 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 45 40 NE 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 44 39 E 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 46 41 E 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 53 49 E 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 59 56 E 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 63 60 E 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 65 62 E 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 67 64 NE 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 67 63 NE 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 66 62 NE 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 64 59 E 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 59 54 E 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 53 48 E 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 51 46 NE 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 48 43 NE 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 48 43 NE 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 46 41 NE 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 45 40 NE 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 45 40 NE 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 45 40 NE 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 44 39 NE 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 44 39 NE 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst