Detailed Predictions for: Palomar
Launch Altitude (f): 3200
LZ Altitude (f): 925
Sounding

Station:

 KNKX

Date/Time:

 19 MAR 2010

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
5 AM Fri 50 45 N 0 440 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 49 44 N 0 440 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 49 44 N 0 440 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 51 46 NE 1 440 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 57 53 NE 1 2651 3200 0 Blue 1
10 AM Fri 65 63 NE 1 3233 3200 0 Blue 11
11 AM Fri 72 72 NW 5 5896 5003 1803 Blue 20
12 Noon Fri 76 77 NW 5 7860 7860 4660 White 25
1 PM Fri 79 80 NW 5 8488 8488 5288 White 28
2 PM Fri 80 80 W 6 8488 8488 5288 White 28
3 PM Fri 81 80 W 6 8488 8488 5288 White 28
4 PM Fri 80 77 W 6 7860 7860 4660 White 25
5 PM Fri 77 73 NW 6 7022 5289 2089 White 21
6 PM Fri 70 65 NW 6 3717 3200 0 Blue 13
7 PM Fri 61 56 NW 6 2858 3200 0 Blue 4
8 PM Fri 54 49 W 1 440 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 53 48 W 1 440 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 54 49 W 1 440 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 56 51 N 2 566 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 56 51 N 2 566 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 56 51 N 2 566 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 56 51 N 1 566 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 55 50 N 1 440 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 55 50 N 1 440 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 55 50 NE 1 440 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 54 49 NE 1 440 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 55 50 NE 1 440 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 57 52 NE 2 2453 3200 0 White 0
9 AM Sat 65 61 NE 2 3125 3200 0 Blue 9
10 AM Sat 74 72 NE 2 5896 5003 1803 Blue 20
11 AM Sat 81 80 N 1 8488 8488 5288 White 28
12 Noon Sat 85 86 N 1 9730 9730 6530 White 34
1 PM Sat 86 87 N 1 9936 9936 6736 White 35
2 PM Sat 86 86 W 7 9730 9730 6530 White 34
3 PM Sat 84 83 W 7 9110 9110 5910 White 31
4 PM Sat 82 79 W 7 8278 8278 5078 White 27
5 PM Sat 77 73 W 7 7022 5289 2089 White 21
6 PM Sat 71 66 W 7 4061 3229 29 Blue 14
7 PM Sat 64 59 W 7 3018 3200 0 Blue 7
8 PM Sat 59 54 W 7 2720 3200 0 Blue 2
9 PM Sat 57 52 W 7 2453 3200 0 White 0
10 PM Sat 58 53 W 7 2651 3200 0 Blue 1
11 PM Sat 59 54 E 4 2720 3200 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Sun 57 52 E 4 2453 3200 0 White 0
1 AM Sun 56 51 E 4 566 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 55 50 E 3 440 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 54 49 E 3 440 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 53 48 E 3 440 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 52 47 E 5 440 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 51 46 E 5 440 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 50 45 E 5 440 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 52 47 E 5 440 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 61 57 E 5 2911 3200 0 Blue 5
10 AM Sun 72 70 E 5 5326 4368 1168 Blue 18
11 AM Sun 81 80 E 5 8488 8488 5288 White 28
12 Noon Sun 85 85 E 5 9524 9524 6324 White 33
1 PM Sun 85 85 E 5 9524 9524 6324 White 33
2 PM Sun 86 85 E 5 9524 9524 6324 White 33
3 PM Sun 85 83 E 5 9110 9110 5910 White 31
4 PM Sun 85 82 E 5 8903 8903 5703 White 30
5 PM Sun 82 78 S 6 8070 8070 4870 White 26
6 PM Sun 78 73 S 6 7022 5289 2089 White 21
7 PM Sun 70 65 S 6 3717 3200 0 Blue 13
8 PM Sun 64 59 S 6 3018 3200 0 Blue 7
9 PM Sun 60 55 S 6 2790 3200 0 Blue 3
10 PM Sun 58 53 S 6 2651 3200 0 Blue 1
11 PM Sun 55 50 W 1 440 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 54 49 W 1 440 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 52 47 W 1 440 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 50 45 W 1 440 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 50 45 W 1 440 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 49 44 W 1 440 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 47 42 W 3 440 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 47 42 W 3 440 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 47 42 W 3 440 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 50 45 W 3 440 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 57 53 W 3 2651 3200 0 Blue 1
10 AM Mon 62 59 W 3 3018 3200 0 Blue 7
11 AM Mon 68 67 SW 7 4401 3348 148 Blue 15
12 Noon Mon 72 71 SW 7 5612 4702 1502 Blue 19
1 PM Mon 74 74 SW 7 7231 5572 2372 White 22
2 PM Mon 76 75 SW 7 7442 5854 2654 White 23
3 PM Mon 75 73 SW 7 7022 5289 2089 White 21
4 PM Mon 76 73 SW 7 7022 5289 2089 White 21
5 PM Mon 73 69 SW 9 5038 4031 831 Blue 17
6 PM Mon 70 65 SW 9 3717 3200 0 Blue 13
7 PM Mon 64 59 SW 9 3018 3200 0 Blue 7
8 PM Mon 59 54 SW 9 2720 3200 0 Blue 2
9 PM Mon 56 51 SW 9 566 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 54 49 SW 9 440 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 52 47 S 6 440 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 51 46 S 6 440 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 50 45 S 6 440 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 48 43 S 6 440 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 48 43 S 6 440 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 48 43 S 6 440 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 46 41 S 7 440 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 46 41 S 7 440 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 46 41 S 7 440 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 49 44 S 7 440 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 54 49 S 7 440 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 58 53 S 7 2651 3200 0 Blue 1
11 AM Tue 63 60 S 11 3072 3200 0 Blue 8
12 Noon Tue 66 63 S 11 3233 3200 0 Blue 11
1 PM Tue 68 65 S 11 3717 3200 0 Blue 13
2 PM Tue 69 66 S 11 4061 3229 29 Blue 14
3 PM Tue 68 64 S 11 3370 3200 0 Blue 12
4 PM Tue 69 65 S 11 3717 3200 0 Blue 13
5 PM Tue 66 61 SW 12 3125 3200 0 Blue 9
6 PM Tue 64 59 SW 12 3018 3200 0 Blue 7
7 PM Tue 59 54 SW 12 2720 3200 0 Blue 2
8 PM Tue 55 50 SW 12 440 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 52 47 SW 12 440 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 50 45 SW 12 440 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 49 44 SE 3 440 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 48 43 SE 3 440 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 47 42 SE 3 440 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 45 40 SE 3 440 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 45 40 SE 3 440 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 44 39 SE 3 440 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 43 38 E 3 440 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 43 38 E 3 440 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 43 38 E 3 440 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 47 42 E 3 440 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 54 50 E 3 440 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 60 57 E 3 2911 3200 0 Blue 5
11 AM Wed 66 65 W 5 3717 3200 0 Blue 13
12 Noon Wed 71 71 W 5 5612 4702 1502 Blue 19
1 PM Wed 73 73 W 5 7022 5289 2089 White 21
2 PM Wed 75 75 W 5 7442 5854 2654 White 23
3 PM Wed 74 73 W 5 7022 5289 2089 White 21
4 PM Wed 75 72 W 5 5896 5003 1803 Blue 20
5 PM Wed 72 68 NW 6 4738 3691 491 Blue 16
6 PM Wed 69 64 NW 6 3370 3200 0 Blue 12
7 PM Wed 63 58 NW 6 2965 3200 0 Blue 6
8 PM Wed 59 54 NW 6 2720 3200 0 Blue 2
9 PM Wed 56 51 NW 6 566 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 54 49 NW 6 440 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 52 47 E 2 440 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 51 46 E 2 440 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 50 45 E 2 440 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 48 43 E 2 440 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 48 43 E 2 440 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 47 42 E 2 440 3200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst