Detailed Predictions for: Palomar
Launch Altitude (f): 3200
LZ Altitude (f): 925
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

22 APR 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 55 50 N 5 1001 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 57 52 N 3 1001 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 61 56 NW 2 1001 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 66 62 NW 1 1055 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 71 68 NW 2 1347 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 76 75 W 5 1951 3200 0 Blue 3
11 AM Sun 79 79 W 6 3716 3200 0 Blue 7
12 Noon Sun 82 83 W 7 6218 4537 1337 Blue 11
1 PM Sun 83 84 W 8 6813 5345 2145 Blue 12
2 PM Sun 82 82 W 8 5846 3648 448 Blue 10
3 PM Sun 82 81 W 8 5401 3200 0 Blue 9
4 PM Sun 81 79 W 7 3716 3200 0 Blue 7
5 PM Sun 77 73 W 6 1654 3200 0 Blue 1
6 PM Sun 72 67 SW 5 1298 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 67 62 W 3 1055 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 62 57 N 1 1001 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 60 55 N 3 1001 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 59 54 N 3 1001 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 59 54 N 3 1001 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 59 54 N 3 1001 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 58 53 N 3 1001 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 57 52 N 3 1001 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 55 50 N 3 1001 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 54 49 N 3 1001 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 54 49 N 5 1001 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 57 52 N 3 1001 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 61 56 N 3 1001 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 66 62 W 1 1055 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 71 69 W 2 1396 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 75 75 W 3 1951 3200 0 Blue 3
11 AM Mon 78 79 W 6 3716 3200 0 Blue 7
12 Noon Mon 80 82 W 7 5846 3648 448 Blue 10
1 PM Mon 82 84 W 7 6813 5345 2145 Blue 12
2 PM Mon 81 82 W 8 5846 3648 448 Blue 10
3 PM Mon 81 81 W 7 5401 3200 0 Blue 9
4 PM Mon 81 79 W 6 3716 3200 0 Blue 7
5 PM Mon 78 74 W 5 1779 3200 0 Blue 2
6 PM Mon 73 68 W 3 1347 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 67 62 NW 2 1055 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 62 57 N 2 1001 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 60 55 N 2 1001 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 59 54 N 2 1001 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 59 54 N 2 1001 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 58 53 N 3 1001 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 56 51 N 3 1001 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 55 50 N 3 1001 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 54 49 N 3 1001 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 53 48 N 3 1001 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 54 49 N 3 1001 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 56 51 N 3 1001 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 60 55 N 2 1001 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 65 61 W 2 1006 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 70 67 W 3 1298 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 74 73 W 5 1654 3200 0 Blue 1
11 AM Tue 78 77 W 7 2402 3200 0 Blue 5
12 Noon Tue 80 80 W 7 4625 3200 0 Blue 8
1 PM Tue 81 81 W 7 5401 3200 0 Blue 9
2 PM Tue 80 80 W 8 4625 3200 0 Blue 8
3 PM Tue 80 79 W 7 3716 3200 0 Blue 7
4 PM Tue 80 77 W 7 2402 3200 0 Blue 5
5 PM Tue 77 73 W 6 1654 3200 0 Blue 1
6 PM Tue 72 67 SW 5 1298 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 66 61 S 3 1006 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 60 55 SE 2 1001 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 58 53 SE 2 1001 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 57 52 SE 2 1001 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 57 52 N 3 1001 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 57 52 N 3 1001 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 58 53 N 3 1001 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 57 52 N 1 1001 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 55 50 N 1 1001 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 53 48 N 1 1001 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 52 47 N 3 1001 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 54 49 N 3 1001 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 59 54 N 3 1001 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 64 60 NW 6 1001 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 68 65 NW 6 1201 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 71 69 NW 6 1396 3200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 74 74 W 8 1779 3200 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Wed 76 77 W 8 2402 3200 0 Blue 5
1 PM Wed 78 79 W 8 3716 3200 0 Blue 7
2 PM Wed 79 80 W 8 4625 3200 0 Blue 8
3 PM Wed 79 78 W 8 2708 3200 0 Blue 6
4 PM Wed 78 76 W 8 2177 3200 0 Blue 4
5 PM Wed 75 71 W 8 1494 3200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 71 66 W 8 1250 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 66 61 W 8 1006 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 61 56 NW 6 1001 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 58 53 NW 6 1001 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 56 51 NW 6 1001 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 55 50 N 3 1001 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 55 50 N 3 1001 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 54 49 N 3 1001 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 53 48 N 3 1001 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 52 47 N 3 1001 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 50 45 N 3 1001 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 50 45 N 5 1001 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 53 48 N 5 1001 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 57 52 N 5 1001 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 62 58 NW 6 1001 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 66 63 NW 6 1103 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 70 69 NW 6 1396 3200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 72 72 W 8 1543 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 74 75 W 8 1951 3200 0 Blue 3
1 PM Thu 74 76 W 8 2177 3200 0 Blue 4
2 PM Thu 75 76 W 9 2177 3200 0 Blue 4
3 PM Thu 75 74 W 9 1779 3200 0 Blue 2
4 PM Thu 74 72 W 9 1543 3200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 73 69 W 8 1396 3200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 69 64 W 8 1152 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 64 59 W 8 1001 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 60 55 NW 5 1001 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 57 52 NW 5 1001 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 56 51 NW 5 1001 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 55 50 N 2 1001 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 54 49 N 2 1001 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 53 48 N 2 1001 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 52 47 N 1 1001 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 51 46 N 1 1001 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 50 45 N 1 1001 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 50 45 N 2 1001 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 52 47 N 2 1001 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 56 51 N 2 1001 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 60 56 NW 5 1001 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 64 61 NW 5 1006 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 68 67 NW 5 1298 3200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 72 73 W 7 1654 3200 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Fri 74 76 W 7 2177 3200 0 Blue 4
1 PM Fri 76 78 W 7 2708 3200 0 Blue 6
2 PM Fri 76 77 W 8 2402 3200 0 Blue 5
3 PM Fri 75 75 W 8 1951 3200 0 Blue 3
4 PM Fri 73 71 W 8 1494 3200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 70 66 W 8 1250 3200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 67 62 W 8 1055 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 64 59 W 8 1001 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 60 55 S 5 1001 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 57 52 S 5 1001 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 54 49 S 5 1001 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 52 47 SE 1 1001 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 52 47 SE 1 1001 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 51 46 SE 1 1001 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 51 46 E 0 1001 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 50 45 E 0 1001 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 49 44 E 0 1001 3200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst