Detailed Predictions for: Palomar
Launch Altitude (f): 3200
LZ Altitude (f): 925
Sounding

Station:

 KNKX

Date/Time:

 4 FEB 2012

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
4 AM Sat 49 44 E 10 745 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 48 43 E 10 745 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 48 43 E 10 745 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 48 43 E 10 745 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 52 47 E 10 745 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 55 51 E 10 745 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 60 57 SE 5 1165 3200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 64 61 SE 5 1739 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 67 65 SE 5 5874 3200 0 Blue 2
1 PM Sat 71 68 SE 7 7243 5762 2562 Blue 5
2 PM Sat 71 68 SE 7 7243 5762 2562 Blue 5
3 PM Sat 72 68 SE 7 7243 5762 2562 Blue 5
4 PM Sat 69 64 SE 6 3816 3200 0 Blue 1
5 PM Sat 64 59 SE 6 1452 3200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 59 54 SE 6 745 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 57 52 E 9 745 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 56 51 E 9 745 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 55 50 E 9 745 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 54 49 E 10 745 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 54 49 E 10 745 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 54 49 E 10 745 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 53 48 E 9 745 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 52 47 E 9 745 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 52 47 E 9 745 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 51 46 E 9 745 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 50 45 E 9 745 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 50 45 E 9 745 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 50 45 E 9 745 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 53 48 E 9 745 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 56 52 E 9 745 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 61 58 SW 3 1309 3200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 64 61 SW 3 1739 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 67 64 SW 3 3816 3200 0 Blue 1
1 PM Sun 70 67 S 6 7146 3658 458 Blue 4
2 PM Sun 70 67 S 6 7146 3658 458 Blue 4
3 PM Sun 70 66 S 6 6623 3200 0 Blue 3
4 PM Sun 68 63 SE 3 2240 3200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 62 57 SE 3 1165 3200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 56 51 SE 3 745 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 54 49 E 9 745 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 53 48 E 9 745 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 52 47 E 9 745 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 52 47 E 7 745 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 52 47 E 7 745 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 51 46 E 7 745 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 50 45 E 7 745 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 50 45 E 7 745 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 49 44 E 7 745 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 48 43 E 9 745 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 48 43 E 9 745 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 47 42 E 9 745 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 47 42 E 9 745 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 50 45 E 9 745 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 54 50 E 9 745 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 59 55 W 7 878 3200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 63 60 W 7 1596 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 65 62 W 7 1883 3200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 69 66 W 7 6623 3200 0 Blue 3
2 PM Mon 69 65 W 7 5874 3200 0 Blue 2
3 PM Mon 70 66 W 7 6623 3200 0 Blue 3
4 PM Mon 68 63 W 6 2240 3200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 63 58 W 6 1309 3200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 57 52 W 6 745 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 55 50 W 6 745 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 55 50 W 6 745 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 54 49 W 6 745 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 53 48 E 7 745 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 53 48 E 7 745 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 52 47 E 7 745 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 52 47 E 7 745 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 51 46 E 7 745 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 51 46 E 7 745 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 50 45 E 5 745 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 49 44 E 5 745 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 49 44 E 5 745 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 49 44 E 5 745 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 51 46 E 5 745 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 53 48 E 5 745 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 56 52 E 6 745 3200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 58 54 E 6 745 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 59 55 E 6 878 3200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 61 57 E 6 1165 3200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 61 57 E 6 1165 3200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 62 57 E 6 1165 3200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 61 56 W 5 1021 3200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 57 52 W 5 745 3200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 54 49 W 5 745 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 53 48 W 5 745 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 52 47 W 5 745 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 52 47 W 5 745 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 52 47 N 3 745 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 52 47 N 3 745 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 51 46 N 3 745 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 51 46 N 3 745 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 50 45 N 3 745 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 50 45 N 3 745 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 49 44 N 7 745 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 49 44 N 7 745 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 49 44 N 7 745 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 49 44 N 7 745 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 51 46 N 7 745 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 53 48 N 7 745 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 56 51 N 10 745 3200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 59 55 N 10 878 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 60 56 N 10 1021 3200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 62 58 N 10 1309 3200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 62 57 N 10 1165 3200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 63 58 N 10 1309 3200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 62 57 NE 12 1165 3200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 59 54 NE 12 745 3200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 56 51 NE 12 745 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 55 50 NE 12 745 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 54 49 NE 12 745 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 54 49 NE 12 745 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 53 48 E 14 745 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 53 48 E 14 745 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 53 48 E 14 745 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 53 48 E 14 745 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 52 47 E 14 745 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 52 47 E 14 745 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 51 46 E 13 745 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 51 46 E 13 745 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 51 46 E 13 745 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 51 46 E 13 745 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 54 49 E 13 745 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 57 53 E 13 745 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 62 59 NE 10 1452 3200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 65 62 NE 10 1883 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 68 66 NE 10 6623 3200 0 Blue 3
1 PM Thu 71 68 NE 10 7243 5762 2562 Blue 5
2 PM Thu 71 68 NE 10 7243 5762 2562 Blue 5
3 PM Thu 72 68 NE 10 7243 5762 2562 Blue 5
4 PM Thu 70 65 NW 10 5874 3200 0 Blue 2
5 PM Thu 66 61 NW 10 1739 3200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 62 57 NW 10 1165 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 60 55 NW 10 878 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 60 55 NW 10 878 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 59 54 NW 10 745 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 58 53 E 13 745 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 58 53 E 13 745 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 58 53 E 13 745 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 57 52 E 13 745 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 57 52 E 13 745 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 57 52 E 13 745 3200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst