Detailed Predictions for: Palomar
Launch Altitude (f): 3200
LZ Altitude (f): 925
Sounding

Station:

 KNKX

Date/Time:

 11 MAR 2010

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
7 AM Thu 43 38 E 3 860 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 49 45 E 3 860 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 55 53 E 3 3347 3200 0 Blue 5
10 AM Thu 60 59 N 2 5315 4108 908 White 11
11 AM Thu 64 64 N 2 6374 6103 2903 White 16
12 Noon Thu 67 68 N 2 7214 6973 3773 White 20
1 PM Thu 68 68 W 2 7214 6973 3773 White 20
2 PM Thu 68 67 W 2 7004 6865 3665 White 19
3 PM Thu 67 64 W 2 6374 6103 2903 White 16
4 PM Thu 64 60 W 5 5528 4550 1350 White 12
5 PM Thu 61 56 W 5 4132 3330 130 Blue 8
6 PM Thu 57 52 W 5 3083 3200 0 Blue 4
7 PM Thu 54 49 SE 2 2234 3200 0 Blue 1
8 PM Thu 52 47 SE 2 1382 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 51 46 SE 2 860 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 49 44 E 3 860 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 48 43 E 3 860 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 46 41 E 3 860 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 46 41 E 4 860 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 46 41 E 4 860 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 46 41 E 4 860 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 44 39 E 4 860 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 43 38 E 4 860 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 43 38 E 4 860 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 46 41 E 3 860 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 53 49 E 3 2234 3200 0 Blue 1
9 AM Fri 59 56 E 3 4132 3330 130 Blue 8
10 AM Fri 65 64 W 8 6374 6103 2903 White 16
11 AM Fri 68 67 W 8 7004 6865 3665 White 19
12 Noon Fri 72 72 W 8 8047 7404 4204 White 24
1 PM Fri 73 72 W 7 8047 7404 4204 White 24
2 PM Fri 73 71 W 7 7840 7296 4096 White 23
3 PM Fri 72 69 W 7 7422 7081 3881 White 21
4 PM Fri 69 64 W 8 6374 6103 2903 White 16
5 PM Fri 66 61 W 8 5739 5065 1865 White 13
6 PM Fri 60 55 W 8 3872 3200 0 Blue 7
7 PM Fri 58 53 SW 3 3347 3200 0 Blue 5
8 PM Fri 55 50 SW 3 2540 3200 0 Blue 2
9 PM Fri 54 49 SW 3 2234 3200 0 Blue 1
10 PM Fri 51 46 N 1 860 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 50 45 N 1 860 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 49 44 N 1 860 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 48 43 E 1 860 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 48 43 E 1 860 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 48 43 E 1 860 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 46 41 E 2 860 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 45 40 E 2 860 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 45 40 E 2 860 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 47 42 E 2 860 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 51 46 E 2 860 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 55 51 E 2 2817 3200 0 Blue 3
10 AM Sat 59 56 W 9 4132 3330 130 Blue 8
11 AM Sat 61 59 W 9 5315 4108 908 White 11
12 Noon Sat 64 62 W 9 5951 5415 2215 White 14
1 PM Sat 64 62 W 9 5951 5415 2215 White 14
2 PM Sat 64 61 W 9 5739 5065 1865 White 13
3 PM Sat 64 60 W 9 5528 4550 1350 White 12
4 PM Sat 61 56 W 10 4132 3330 130 Blue 8
5 PM Sat 59 54 W 10 3610 3200 0 Blue 6
6 PM Sat 55 50 W 10 2540 3200 0 Blue 2
7 PM Sat 53 48 W 10 1911 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 52 47 W 10 1382 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 50 45 W 10 860 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 49 44 E 2 860 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 48 43 E 2 860 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 47 42 E 2 860 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 46 41 E 2 860 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 46 41 E 2 860 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 46 41 E 2 860 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 45 40 NE 5 860 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 44 39 NE 5 860 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 44 39 NE 5 860 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 47 42 NE 5 860 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 53 49 NE 5 2234 3200 0 Blue 1
9 AM Sun 59 56 NE 5 4132 3330 130 Blue 8
10 AM Sun 64 63 NW 1 6163 5761 2561 White 15
11 AM Sun 68 68 NW 1 7214 6973 3773 White 20
12 Noon Sun 71 71 NW 1 7840 7296 4096 White 23
1 PM Sun 72 72 NW 1 8047 7404 4204 White 24
2 PM Sun 72 71 NW 1 7840 7296 4096 White 23
3 PM Sun 71 68 NW 1 7214 6973 3773 White 20
4 PM Sun 68 64 NW 5 6374 6103 2903 White 16
5 PM Sun 65 60 NW 5 5528 4550 1350 White 12
6 PM Sun 61 56 NW 5 4132 3330 130 Blue 8
7 PM Sun 58 53 NW 5 3347 3200 0 Blue 5
8 PM Sun 56 51 NW 5 2817 3200 0 Blue 3
9 PM Sun 55 50 NW 5 2540 3200 0 Blue 2
10 PM Sun 53 48 NE 4 1911 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 52 47 NE 4 1382 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 50 45 NE 4 860 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 50 45 NE 4 860 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 50 45 NE 4 860 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 50 45 NE 4 860 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 48 43 NE 7 860 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 47 42 NE 7 860 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 47 42 NE 7 860 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 51 46 NE 7 860 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 58 54 NE 7 3610 3200 0 Blue 6
9 AM Mon 65 63 NE 7 6163 5761 2561 White 15
10 AM Mon 72 71 NE 6 7840 7296 4096 White 23
11 AM Mon 76 76 NE 6 8877 8440 5240 White 28
12 Noon Mon 79 80 NE 6 9712 9279 6079 White 32
1 PM Mon 81 81 NE 6 9864 9416 6216 Blue 33
2 PM Mon 81 80 NE 6 9712 9279 6079 White 32
3 PM Mon 80 77 NE 6 9085 8752 5552 White 29
4 PM Mon 76 72 NE 4 8047 7404 4204 White 24
5 PM Mon 73 68 NE 4 7214 6973 3773 White 20
6 PM Mon 67 62 NE 4 5951 5415 2215 White 14
7 PM Mon 64 59 NE 4 5315 4108 908 White 11
8 PM Mon 62 57 NE 4 4624 3591 391 Blue 9
9 PM Mon 60 55 NE 4 3872 3200 0 Blue 7
10 PM Mon 58 53 E 6 3347 3200 0 Blue 5
11 PM Mon 57 52 E 6 3083 3200 0 Blue 4
12 Midnight Tue 55 50 E 6 2540 3200 0 Blue 2
1 AM Tue 54 49 E 6 2234 3200 0 Blue 1
2 AM Tue 54 49 E 6 2234 3200 0 Blue 1
3 AM Tue 54 49 E 6 2234 3200 0 Blue 1
4 AM Tue 52 47 E 8 1382 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 51 46 E 8 860 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 51 46 E 8 860 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 54 49 E 8 2234 3200 0 Blue 1
8 AM Tue 61 57 E 8 4624 3591 391 Blue 9
9 AM Tue 68 66 E 8 6795 6758 3558 White 18
10 AM Tue 74 73 E 10 8255 7511 4311 White 25
11 AM Tue 77 77 E 10 9085 8752 5552 White 29
12 Noon Tue 81 81 E 10 9864 9416 6216 Blue 33
1 PM Tue 82 82 E 10 10001 9552 6352 Blue 34
2 PM Tue 82 80 E 10 9712 9279 6079 White 32
3 PM Tue 81 78 E 10 9295 9006 5806 White 30
4 PM Tue 77 73 E 9 8255 7511 4311 White 25
5 PM Tue 74 69 E 9 7422 7081 3881 White 21
6 PM Tue 68 63 E 9 6163 5761 2561 White 15
7 PM Tue 65 60 E 9 5528 4550 1350 White 12
8 PM Tue 62 57 E 9 4624 3591 391 Blue 9
9 PM Tue 61 56 E 9 4132 3330 130 Blue 8
10 PM Tue 58 53 E 5 3347 3200 0 Blue 5
11 PM Tue 57 52 E 5 3083 3200 0 Blue 4
12 Midnight Wed 55 50 E 5 2540 3200 0 Blue 2
1 AM Wed 55 50 E 5 2540 3200 0 Blue 2
2 AM Wed 54 49 E 5 2234 3200 0 Blue 1
3 AM Wed 54 49 E 5 2234 3200 0 Blue 1
4 AM Wed 52 47 E 4 1382 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 51 46 E 4 860 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 51 46 E 4 860 3200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst