Detailed Predictions for: Palomar
Launch Altitude (f): 3200
LZ Altitude (f): 925
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

17 NOV 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Sat 49 44 N 2 1280 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 48 43 N 2 1280 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 48 43 N 2 1280 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 48 43 N 2 1280 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 55 50 NW 1 1280 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 60 56 W 1 1280 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 64 61 W 5 1678 3200 0 Blue 1
11 AM Sat 68 65 W 5 2406 3200 0 Blue 5
12 Noon Sat 71 68 W 6 3077 3200 0 Blue 8
1 PM Sat 72 69 W 7 3364 3200 0 Blue 9
2 PM Sat 71 67 W 7 2870 3200 0 Blue 7
3 PM Sat 71 66 W 7 2673 3200 0 Blue 6
4 PM Sat 68 63 W 5 2033 3200 0 Blue 3
5 PM Sat 62 57 W 2 1280 3200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 59 54 W 1 1280 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 56 51 E 1 1280 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 53 48 E 2 1280 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 52 47 E 2 1280 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 52 47 E 2 1280 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 51 46 NE 2 1280 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 50 45 NE 1 1280 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 49 44 E 1 1280 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 49 44 NE 1 1280 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 48 43 N 1 1280 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 49 44 NE 1 1280 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 48 43 E 2 1280 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 48 43 E 2 1280 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 49 44 E 5 1280 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 56 51 SE 2 1280 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 60 55 SE 1 1280 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 66 62 W 3 1886 3200 0 Blue 2
11 AM Sun 70 67 W 5 2870 3200 0 Blue 7
12 Noon Sun 72 69 W 5 3364 3200 0 Blue 9
1 PM Sun 74 71 W 6 3894 3200 0 Blue 11
2 PM Sun 73 69 W 6 3364 3200 0 Blue 9
3 PM Sun 73 68 W 6 3077 3200 0 Blue 8
4 PM Sun 70 65 W 3 2406 3200 0 Blue 5
5 PM Sun 64 59 E 2 1316 3200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 62 57 E 7 1280 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 59 54 E 13 1280 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 56 51 E 14 1280 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 55 50 E 14 1280 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 55 50 E 14 1280 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 54 49 E 13 1280 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 53 48 E 13 1280 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 52 47 E 13 1280 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 52 47 E 13 1280 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 51 46 E 13 1280 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 52 47 E 13 1280 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 51 46 E 13 1280 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 51 46 E 13 1280 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 52 47 E 10 1280 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 58 53 E 10 1280 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 62 58 E 10 1280 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 67 63 S 7 2033 3200 0 Blue 3
11 AM Mon 71 67 S 7 2870 3200 0 Blue 7
12 Noon Mon 74 70 S 7 3632 3200 0 Blue 10
1 PM Mon 75 71 S 7 3894 3200 0 Blue 11
2 PM Mon 74 70 S 7 3632 3200 0 Blue 10
3 PM Mon 74 69 S 7 3364 3200 0 Blue 9
4 PM Mon 70 65 SW 1 2406 3200 0 Blue 5
5 PM Mon 64 59 SW 1 1316 3200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 61 56 SW 1 1280 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 58 53 E 5 1280 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 55 50 E 5 1280 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 54 49 E 5 1280 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 53 48 E 10 1280 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 52 47 E 10 1280 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 51 46 E 10 1280 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 50 45 E 8 1280 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 50 45 E 8 1280 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 49 44 E 8 1280 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 50 45 E 8 1280 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 49 44 E 8 1280 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 49 44 E 8 1280 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 49 44 SE 6 1280 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 55 50 SE 6 1280 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 58 53 SE 6 1280 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 62 59 SW 6 1316 3200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 65 62 SW 6 1886 3200 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Tue 67 64 SW 6 2154 3200 0 Blue 4
1 PM Tue 68 65 W 8 2406 3200 0 Blue 5
2 PM Tue 68 64 W 8 2154 3200 0 Blue 4
3 PM Tue 67 62 W 8 1886 3200 0 Blue 2
4 PM Tue 65 60 W 6 1497 3200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 61 56 W 6 1280 3200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 58 53 W 6 1280 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 56 51 NE 2 1280 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 54 49 NE 2 1280 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 53 48 NE 2 1280 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 53 48 NE 2 1280 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 52 47 NE 2 1280 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 51 46 NE 2 1280 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 51 46 E 2 1280 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 51 46 E 2 1280 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 50 45 E 2 1280 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 50 45 E 5 1280 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 50 45 E 5 1280 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 50 45 E 5 1280 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 50 45 E 7 1280 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 55 50 E 7 1280 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 59 55 E 7 1280 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 62 58 SW 6 1280 3200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 65 61 SW 6 1678 3200 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Wed 67 63 SW 6 2033 3200 0 Blue 3
1 PM Wed 68 64 W 8 2154 3200 0 Blue 4
2 PM Wed 68 64 W 8 2154 3200 0 Blue 4
3 PM Wed 67 62 W 8 1886 3200 0 Blue 2
4 PM Wed 65 60 W 6 1497 3200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 60 55 W 6 1280 3200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 58 53 W 6 1280 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 55 50 SE 2 1280 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 53 48 SE 2 1280 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 52 47 SE 2 1280 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 52 47 SE 5 1280 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 52 47 SE 5 1280 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 50 45 SE 5 1280 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 50 45 NE 1 1280 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 50 45 NE 1 1280 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 49 44 NE 1 1280 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 50 45 NE 5 1280 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 49 44 NE 5 1280 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 49 44 NE 5 1280 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 49 44 NE 3 1280 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 55 50 NE 3 1280 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 58 53 NE 3 1280 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 62 57 W 7 1280 3200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 65 61 W 7 1678 3200 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Thu 67 63 W 7 2033 3200 0 Blue 3
1 PM Thu 68 64 W 10 2154 3200 0 Blue 4
2 PM Thu 68 63 W 10 2033 3200 0 Blue 3
3 PM Thu 67 62 W 10 1886 3200 0 Blue 2
4 PM Thu 64 59 W 8 1316 3200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 60 55 W 8 1280 3200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 57 52 W 8 1280 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 55 50 NE 3 1280 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 52 47 NE 3 1280 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 52 47 NE 3 1280 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 51 46 NE 10 1280 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 51 46 NE 10 1280 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 50 45 NE 10 1280 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 49 44 NE 5 1280 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 49 44 NE 5 1280 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 48 43 NE 5 1280 3200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst