Detailed Predictions for: Palomar
Launch Altitude (f): 3200
LZ Altitude (f): 925
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

25 MAR 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Mon 49 44 E 7 1211 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 49 44 E 7 1211 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 48 43 E 7 1211 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 50 45 SE 5 1211 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 57 53 SE 2 1211 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 62 60 S 2 2075 3200 0 Blue 6
11 AM Mon 67 67 W 5 2961 3200 0 Blue 13
12 Noon Mon 70 71 W 5 3480 3200 0 Blue 17
1 PM Mon 73 74 W 6 4262 3468 268 Blue 20
2 PM Mon 73 73 W 7 3837 3293 93 Blue 19
3 PM Mon 73 72 W 7 3658 3200 0 Blue 18
4 PM Mon 73 70 W 7 3301 3200 0 Blue 16
5 PM Mon 71 67 W 6 2961 3200 0 Blue 13
6 PM Mon 69 64 W 5 2508 3200 0 Blue 10
7 PM Mon 64 59 W 2 1971 3200 0 Blue 5
8 PM Mon 60 55 SE 1 1528 3200 0 Blue 1
9 PM Mon 57 52 SE 2 1211 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 56 51 SE 2 1211 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 55 50 E 1 1211 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 54 49 E 2 1211 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 52 47 E 2 1211 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 52 47 SE 2 1211 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 51 46 SE 2 1211 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 50 45 E 1 1211 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 50 45 NE 1 1211 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 50 45 NE 1 1211 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 49 44 N 1 1211 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 51 46 N 1 1211 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 57 53 N 2 1211 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 62 59 W 5 1971 3200 0 Blue 5
11 AM Tue 66 64 W 6 2508 3200 0 Blue 10
12 Noon Tue 70 68 W 7 3092 3200 0 Blue 14
1 PM Tue 72 70 W 8 3301 3200 0 Blue 16
2 PM Tue 72 70 W 8 3301 3200 0 Blue 16
3 PM Tue 72 69 W 8 3195 3200 0 Blue 15
4 PM Tue 72 68 W 7 3092 3200 0 Blue 14
5 PM Tue 70 65 W 6 2667 3200 0 Blue 11
6 PM Tue 68 63 SW 5 2423 3200 0 Blue 9
7 PM Tue 62 57 S 2 1750 3200 0 Blue 3
8 PM Tue 58 53 SE 1 1211 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 56 51 E 1 1211 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 54 49 NE 1 1211 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 53 48 N 2 1211 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 52 47 N 2 1211 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 50 45 N 1 1211 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 50 45 NE 1 1211 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 49 44 NE 1 1211 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 48 43 E 1 1211 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 48 43 E 1 1211 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 48 43 SE 1 1211 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 47 42 S 1 1211 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 49 44 SW 2 1211 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 54 49 SW 2 1211 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 57 53 W 2 1211 3200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 61 58 W 5 1861 3200 0 Blue 4
12 Noon Wed 63 61 W 7 2179 3200 0 Blue 7
1 PM Wed 65 63 W 9 2423 3200 0 Blue 9
2 PM Wed 65 63 W 12 2423 3200 0 Blue 9
3 PM Wed 65 62 W 14 2294 3200 0 Blue 8
4 PM Wed 65 61 W 14 2179 3200 0 Blue 7
5 PM Wed 64 59 W 13 1971 3200 0 Blue 5
6 PM Wed 62 57 W 10 1750 3200 0 Blue 3
7 PM Wed 58 53 W 8 1211 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 55 50 W 5 1211 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 53 48 W 3 1211 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 52 47 SW 3 1211 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 51 46 SW 3 1211 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 50 45 W 3 1211 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 48 43 N 3 1211 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 48 43 N 3 1211 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 48 43 N 5 1211 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 47 42 N 6 1211 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 47 42 N 7 1211 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 47 42 N 7 1211 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 46 41 N 7 1211 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 48 43 W 1 1211 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 53 49 W 1 1211 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 57 54 W 1 1388 3200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 60 59 W 7 1971 3200 0 Blue 5
12 Noon Thu 63 63 W 7 2423 3200 0 Blue 9
1 PM Thu 65 65 W 7 2667 3200 0 Blue 11
2 PM Thu 66 66 W 10 2784 3200 0 Blue 12
3 PM Thu 65 64 W 10 2508 3200 0 Blue 10
4 PM Thu 65 62 W 10 2294 3200 0 Blue 8
5 PM Thu 64 60 W 10 2075 3200 0 Blue 6
6 PM Thu 62 57 W 10 1750 3200 0 Blue 3
7 PM Thu 58 53 W 10 1211 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 55 50 SE 3 1211 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 53 48 SE 3 1211 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 52 47 SE 3 1211 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 51 46 N 3 1211 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 50 45 N 3 1211 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 48 43 N 3 1211 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 48 43 N 8 1211 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 48 43 N 8 1211 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 47 42 N 8 1211 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 47 42 N 12 1211 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 47 42 N 12 1211 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 46 41 N 12 1211 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 48 43 N 8 1211 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 55 51 N 8 1211 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 60 58 N 8 1861 3200 0 Blue 4
11 AM Fri 64 63 NW 8 2423 3200 0 Blue 9
12 Noon Fri 68 68 NW 8 3092 3200 0 Blue 14
1 PM Fri 70 70 NW 8 3301 3200 0 Blue 16
2 PM Fri 71 71 W 10 3480 3200 0 Blue 17
3 PM Fri 70 69 W 10 3195 3200 0 Blue 15
4 PM Fri 70 67 W 10 2961 3200 0 Blue 13
5 PM Fri 68 64 W 8 2508 3200 0 Blue 10
6 PM Fri 66 61 W 8 2179 3200 0 Blue 7
7 PM Fri 61 56 W 8 1639 3200 0 Blue 2
8 PM Fri 57 52 NE 2 1211 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 54 49 NE 2 1211 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 53 48 NE 2 1211 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 52 47 NE 6 1211 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 51 46 NE 6 1211 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 49 44 NE 6 1211 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 49 44 NE 12 1211 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 48 43 NE 12 1211 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 48 43 NE 12 1211 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 47 42 NE 12 1211 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 47 42 NE 12 1211 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 46 41 NE 12 1211 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 49 44 NE 10 1211 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 56 52 NE 10 1211 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 61 59 NE 10 1971 3200 0 Blue 5
11 AM Sat 66 65 NE 10 2667 3200 0 Blue 11
12 Noon Sat 70 70 NE 10 3301 3200 0 Blue 16
1 PM Sat 73 73 NE 10 3837 3293 93 Blue 19
2 PM Sat 74 74 NE 13 4262 3468 268 Blue 20
3 PM Sat 73 72 NE 13 3658 3200 0 Blue 18
4 PM Sat 73 70 NE 13 3301 3200 0 Blue 16
5 PM Sat 71 67 NE 12 2961 3200 0 Blue 13
6 PM Sat 69 64 NE 12 2508 3200 0 Blue 10
7 PM Sat 63 58 NE 12 1861 3200 0 Blue 4
8 PM Sat 59 54 NE 12 1388 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 56 51 NE 12 1211 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 55 50 NE 12 1211 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 53 48 NE 10 1211 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 52 47 NE 10 1211 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 50 45 NE 10 1211 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 50 45 E 14 1211 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 49 44 E 14 1211 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 49 44 E 14 1211 3200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst