Detailed Predictions for: Palomar
Launch Altitude (f): 3200
LZ Altitude (f): 925
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

18 MAY 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 48 43 N 3 1276 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 48 43 N 3 1276 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 49 44 N 2 1276 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 50 46 W 2 1276 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 53 51 W 3 1276 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 58 58 W 5 2527 3200 0 Blue 2
11 AM Sat 63 63 W 7 3993 3200 0 Blue 7
12 Noon Sat 65 66 W 8 4189 3983 783 Blue 10
1 PM Sat 68 69 W 8 5060 4185 985 Blue 13
2 PM Sat 69 69 W 9 5060 4185 985 Blue 13
3 PM Sat 69 68 W 10 4852 4136 936 Blue 12
4 PM Sat 70 68 W 10 4852 4136 936 Blue 12
5 PM Sat 68 64 SW 9 4092 3260 60 Blue 8
6 PM Sat 65 60 SW 8 2942 3200 0 Blue 4
7 PM Sat 62 57 SW 7 2368 3200 0 Blue 1
8 PM Sat 58 53 SW 3 1276 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 54 49 S 3 1276 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 52 47 S 3 1276 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 52 47 S 3 1276 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 52 47 S 3 1276 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 51 46 SE 3 1276 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 51 46 S 3 1276 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 51 46 S 3 1276 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 50 45 S 3 1276 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 50 45 SE 5 1276 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 50 45 SE 5 1276 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 50 45 S 5 1276 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 51 46 S 6 1276 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 52 47 S 6 1276 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 55 50 S 7 1276 3200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 57 54 S 8 1546 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 58 55 SW 9 1820 3200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 60 57 SW 10 2368 3200 0 Blue 1
2 PM Sun 61 58 SW 13 2527 3200 0 Blue 2
3 PM Sun 60 57 SW 13 2368 3200 0 Blue 1
4 PM Sun 61 57 W 13 2368 3200 0 Blue 1
5 PM Sun 60 55 W 13 1820 3200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 58 53 W 13 1276 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 56 51 W 12 1276 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 53 48 W 12 1276 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 51 46 W 10 1276 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 50 45 W 10 1276 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 49 44 W 10 1276 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 49 44 W 9 1276 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 49 44 W 9 1276 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 49 44 W 8 1276 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 49 44 W 8 1276 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 48 43 W 9 1276 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 48 43 W 9 1276 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 48 43 W 9 1276 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 48 43 W 8 1276 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 50 45 W 7 1276 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 51 47 W 8 1276 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 54 50 W 10 1276 3200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 57 56 W 12 2169 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 58 58 W 13 2527 3200 0 Blue 2
1 PM Mon 60 60 W 13 2942 3200 0 Blue 4
2 PM Mon 61 61 SW 13 3284 3200 0 Blue 5
3 PM Mon 60 59 SW 13 2733 3200 0 Blue 3
4 PM Mon 61 58 SW 13 2527 3200 0 Blue 2
5 PM Mon 60 56 SW 12 2169 3200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 58 53 SW 10 1276 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 56 51 SW 9 1276 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 54 49 SW 7 1276 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 52 47 SW 6 1276 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 51 46 SW 5 1276 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 51 46 S 5 1276 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 51 46 S 6 1276 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 51 46 SW 8 1276 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 51 46 SW 10 1276 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 50 45 SW 12 1276 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 50 45 SW 12 1276 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 50 45 SW 12 1276 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 50 45 SW 12 1276 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 50 45 SW 12 1276 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 51 46 SW 14 1276 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 51 47 SW 14 1276 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 53 49 SW 14 1276 3200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 54 50 W 16 1276 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 55 52 W 16 1276 3200 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 55 52 W 16 1276 3200 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 56 52 W 18 1276 3200 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 56 52 W 18 1276 3200 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 56 52 W 18 1276 3200 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 55 50 W 18 1276 3200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 54 49 W 18 1276 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 53 48 W 18 1276 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 52 47 W 13 1276 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 51 46 W 13 1276 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 50 45 W 13 1276 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 50 45 SW 7 1276 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 50 45 SW 7 1276 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 49 44 SW 7 1276 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 49 44 S 6 1276 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 49 44 S 6 1276 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 49 44 S 6 1276 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 49 44 SE 8 1276 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 49 44 SE 8 1276 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 49 44 SE 8 1276 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 50 45 S 8 1276 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 52 47 S 8 1276 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 55 51 S 8 1276 3200 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 58 57 SW 7 2368 3200 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Wed 59 59 SW 7 2733 3200 0 Blue 3
1 PM Wed 61 61 SW 7 3284 3200 0 Blue 5
2 PM Wed 62 61 W 12 3284 3200 0 Blue 5
3 PM Wed 62 60 W 12 2942 3200 0 Blue 4
4 PM Wed 62 59 W 12 2733 3200 0 Blue 3
5 PM Wed 61 57 W 9 2368 3200 0 Blue 1
6 PM Wed 59 54 W 9 1546 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 57 52 W 9 1276 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 55 50 W 2 1276 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 53 48 W 2 1276 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 52 47 W 2 1276 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 51 46 N 5 1276 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 51 46 N 5 1276 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 51 46 N 5 1276 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 51 46 N 3 1276 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 50 45 N 3 1276 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 50 45 N 3 1276 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 50 45 N 6 1276 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 50 45 N 6 1276 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 50 45 N 6 1276 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 52 48 NW 3 1276 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 54 51 NW 3 1276 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 58 57 NW 3 2368 3200 0 Blue 1
11 AM Thu 62 62 W 8 3690 3200 0 Blue 6
12 Noon Thu 64 64 W 8 4092 3260 60 Blue 8
1 PM Thu 66 66 W 8 4189 3983 783 Blue 10
2 PM Thu 67 67 SW 8 4477 4087 887 Blue 11
3 PM Thu 68 67 SW 8 4477 4087 887 Blue 11
4 PM Thu 68 65 SW 8 4140 3660 460 Blue 9
5 PM Thu 66 62 W 9 3690 3200 0 Blue 6
6 PM Thu 64 59 W 9 2733 3200 0 Blue 3
7 PM Thu 61 56 W 9 2169 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 58 53 W 2 1276 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 55 50 W 2 1276 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 53 48 W 2 1276 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 53 48 N 3 1276 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 52 47 N 3 1276 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 52 47 N 3 1276 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 52 47 N 3 1276 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 52 47 N 3 1276 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 51 46 N 3 1276 3200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst