Detailed Predictions for: Palomar
Launch Altitude (f): 3200
LZ Altitude (f): 925
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

21 JAN 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Sun 40 35 E 7 968 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 39 34 E 6 968 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 39 34 E 3 968 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 41 36 E 2 968 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 46 41 E 2 968 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 52 48 S 2 968 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 57 53 SW 3 3612 3200 0 Blue 2
11 AM Sun 60 57 SW 3 4899 3894 694 White 6
12 Noon Sun 61 58 SW 3 5118 4196 996 White 7
1 PM Sun 62 59 W 3 5330 5027 1827 White 8
2 PM Sun 62 58 W 5 5118 4196 996 White 7
3 PM Sun 63 58 W 5 5118 4196 996 White 7
4 PM Sun 60 55 W 7 4225 3200 0 Blue 4
5 PM Sun 53 48 W 5 968 3200 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 45 40 NW 3 968 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 40 35 N 3 968 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 39 34 NE 5 968 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 43 38 NE 6 968 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 48 43 NE 7 968 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 43 38 NE 7 968 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 42 37 NE 6 968 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 42 37 E 3 968 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 42 37 E 2 968 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 44 39 E 2 968 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 44 39 E 2 968 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 42 37 E 2 968 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 41 36 E 2 968 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 42 37 E 2 968 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 47 42 E 1 968 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 54 49 SW 0 968 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 61 57 W 3 4899 3894 694 White 6
11 AM Mon 65 62 W 3 5964 5707 2507 White 11
12 Noon Mon 67 64 W 3 6384 5958 2758 White 13
1 PM Mon 68 65 W 5 6594 6594 3394 White 14
2 PM Mon 68 64 W 5 6384 5958 2758 White 13
3 PM Mon 69 64 W 5 6384 5958 2758 White 13
4 PM Mon 66 61 W 6 5753 5582 2382 White 10
5 PM Mon 60 55 W 3 4225 3200 0 Blue 4
6 PM Mon 52 47 N 1 968 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 46 41 NE 8 968 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 44 39 NE 9 968 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 44 39 NE 9 968 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 45 40 NE 9 968 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 44 39 NE 10 968 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 43 38 NE 10 968 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 43 38 NE 9 968 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 43 38 NE 8 968 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 43 38 NE 10 968 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 43 38 NE 13 968 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 42 37 NE 14 968 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 42 37 NE 14 968 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 45 40 NE 16 968 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 51 46 NE 15 968 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 60 56 NE 12 4685 3589 389 White 5
10 AM Tue 67 64 N 1 6384 5958 2758 White 13
11 AM Tue 71 68 SW 2 7220 7220 4020 White 17
12 Noon Tue 73 71 SW 2 7839 7839 4639 White 20
1 PM Tue 74 71 SW 3 7839 7839 4639 White 20
2 PM Tue 74 71 W 2 7839 7839 4639 White 20
3 PM Tue 75 71 NW 0 7839 7839 4639 White 20
4 PM Tue 71 66 S 1 6803 6803 3603 White 15
5 PM Tue 64 59 W 2 5330 5027 1827 White 8
6 PM Tue 56 51 E 5 1542 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 49 44 E 13 968 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 47 42 E 12 968 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 48 43 E 9 968 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 49 44 E 9 968 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 49 44 E 10 968 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 48 43 E 12 968 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 47 42 E 12 968 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 47 42 E 13 968 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 47 42 E 14 968 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 47 42 E 10 968 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 46 41 E 10 968 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 46 41 E 10 968 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 48 43 E 9 968 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 55 50 E 9 1153 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 63 59 E 9 5330 5027 1827 White 8
10 AM Wed 70 67 SE 8 7012 7012 3812 White 16
11 AM Wed 74 71 SE 8 7839 7839 4639 White 20
12 Noon Wed 76 73 SE 8 8252 8252 5052 White 22
1 PM Wed 76 73 S 7 8252 8252 5052 White 22
2 PM Wed 75 71 S 7 7839 7839 4639 White 20
3 PM Wed 74 70 S 7 7634 7634 4434 White 19
4 PM Wed 71 66 W 6 6803 6803 3603 White 15
5 PM Wed 67 62 W 6 5964 5707 2507 White 11
6 PM Wed 63 58 W 6 5118 4196 996 White 7
7 PM Wed 59 54 S 5 3919 3200 0 Blue 3
8 PM Wed 56 51 S 5 1542 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 55 50 S 5 1153 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 54 49 SE 5 968 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 53 48 SE 5 968 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 51 46 SE 5 968 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 50 45 SE 3 968 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 50 45 SE 3 968 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 49 44 SE 3 968 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 48 43 SE 3 968 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 46 41 SE 3 968 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 45 40 SE 3 968 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 45 40 S 6 968 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 49 44 S 6 968 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 54 49 S 6 968 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 58 54 SW 9 3919 3200 0 Blue 3
11 AM Thu 59 55 SW 9 4225 3200 0 Blue 4
12 Noon Thu 58 54 SW 9 3919 3200 0 Blue 3
1 PM Thu 57 53 W 12 3612 3200 0 Blue 2
2 PM Thu 58 53 W 12 3612 3200 0 Blue 2
3 PM Thu 59 54 W 12 3919 3200 0 Blue 3
4 PM Thu 59 54 W 13 3919 3200 0 Blue 3
5 PM Thu 57 52 W 13 1884 3200 0 Blue 1
6 PM Thu 53 48 W 13 968 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 50 45 NW 10 968 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 49 44 NW 10 968 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 48 43 NW 10 968 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 48 43 NW 8 968 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 47 42 NW 8 968 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 46 41 NW 8 968 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 45 40 NE 7 968 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 44 39 NE 7 968 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 44 39 NE 7 968 3200 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 44 39 E 7 968 3200 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 42 37 E 7 968 3200 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 42 37 E 7 968 3200 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 43 38 SE 6 968 3200 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 47 42 SE 6 968 3200 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 52 48 SE 6 968 3200 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 56 52 S 6 1884 3200 0 Blue 1
11 AM Fri 60 57 S 6 4899 3894 694 White 6
12 Noon Fri 62 59 S 6 5330 5027 1827 White 8
1 PM Fri 64 61 W 6 5753 5582 2382 White 10
2 PM Fri 66 62 W 6 5964 5707 2507 White 11
3 PM Fri 67 63 W 6 6175 5833 2633 White 12
4 PM Fri 66 61 NW 7 5753 5582 2382 White 10
5 PM Fri 59 54 NW 7 3919 3200 0 Blue 3
6 PM Fri 50 45 NW 7 968 3200 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 44 39 N 10 968 3200 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 44 39 N 10 968 3200 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 46 41 N 10 968 3200 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 49 44 NE 14 968 3200 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 49 44 NE 14 968 3200 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 49 44 NE 14 968 3200 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 48 43 NE 15 968 3200 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 48 43 NE 15 968 3200 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 48 43 NE 15 968 3200 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst