Detailed Predictions for: Laguna
Launch Altitude (f): 5630
LZ Altitude (f): 2210
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

21 JUL 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 63 63 SW 13 4947 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 65 65 SW 12 4947 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 66 66 SW 9 4947 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 71 72 S 6 5030 5630 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 76 79 SE 6 6315 5630 0 Blue 2
10 AM Sun 79 84 SE 7 9047 6855 1225 Blue 7
11 AM Sun 81 86 E 9 10993 8452 2822 Blue 9
12 Noon Sun 82 88 E 10 12314 10610 4980 Blue 11
1 PM Sun 81 88 E 12 12314 10610 4980 Blue 11
2 PM Sun 82 88 E 12 12314 10610 4980 Blue 11
3 PM Sun 81 86 E 10 10993 8452 2822 Blue 9
4 PM Sun 81 84 E 9 9047 6855 1225 Blue 7
5 PM Sun 80 82 E 8 7141 6307 677 Blue 5
6 PM Sun 78 79 E 6 6315 5630 0 Blue 2
7 PM Sun 76 76 NE 5 5572 5630 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 69 69 W 5 4947 5630 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 65 65 SW 6 4947 5630 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 63 63 SW 6 4947 5630 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 62 62 SW 6 4947 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 64 64 SW 6 4947 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 62 62 SW 6 4947 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 62 62 SW 6 4947 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 62 62 SW 6 4947 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 62 62 SW 6 4947 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 61 61 SW 6 4947 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 63 63 SW 5 4947 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 65 65 S 5 4947 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 70 71 S 5 4947 5630 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 76 78 S 6 6036 5630 0 Blue 1
10 AM Mon 79 82 E 8 7141 6307 677 Blue 5
11 AM Mon 80 84 E 9 9047 6855 1225 Blue 7
12 Noon Mon 82 87 E 9 11893 8978 3348 Blue 10
1 PM Mon 81 86 E 9 10993 8452 2822 Blue 9
2 PM Mon 82 87 E 9 11893 8978 3348 Blue 10
3 PM Mon 81 85 E 9 10664 7126 1496 Blue 8
4 PM Mon 81 84 S 9 9047 6855 1225 Blue 7
5 PM Mon 80 81 SW 10 6867 6031 401 Blue 4
6 PM Mon 78 78 SW 10 6036 5630 0 Blue 1
7 PM Mon 76 76 W 10 5572 5630 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 70 70 W 10 4947 5630 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 66 66 W 10 4947 5630 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 64 64 W 10 4947 5630 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 63 63 W 10 4947 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 65 65 W 9 4947 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 64 64 SW 9 4947 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 63 63 SW 9 4947 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 63 63 W 8 4947 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 63 63 N 7 4947 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 62 62 NE 6 4947 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 64 64 NE 6 4947 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 65 65 E 7 4947 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 70 70 E 8 4947 5630 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 75 76 E 9 5572 5630 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 78 81 E 12 6867 6031 401 Blue 4
11 AM Tue 80 83 E 14 8479 6581 951 Blue 6
12 Noon Tue 80 83 E 14 8479 6581 951 Blue 6
1 PM Tue 80 84 E 13 9047 6855 1225 Blue 7
2 PM Tue 81 84 E 12 9047 6855 1225 Blue 7
3 PM Tue 80 83 NE 13 8479 6581 951 Blue 6
4 PM Tue 80 82 N 13 7141 6307 677 Blue 5
5 PM Tue 79 80 NW 13 6592 5753 123 Blue 3
6 PM Tue 78 78 NW 12 6036 5630 0 Blue 1
7 PM Tue 76 76 NW 10 5572 5630 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 70 70 NW 9 4947 5630 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 66 66 NW 9 4947 5630 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 65 65 NW 9 4947 5630 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 64 64 N 10 4947 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 66 66 N 10 4947 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 64 64 N 10 4947 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 64 64 NE 10 4947 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 64 64 NE 10 4947 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 64 64 E 10 4947 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 63 63 E 10 4947 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 65 65 E 10 4947 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 66 66 E 10 4947 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 71 72 E 9 5030 5630 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 76 78 E 9 6036 5630 0 Blue 1
10 AM Wed 78 81 E 9 6867 6031 401 Blue 4
11 AM Wed 80 83 E 13 8479 6581 951 Blue 6
12 Noon Wed 81 85 E 13 10664 7126 1496 Blue 8
1 PM Wed 80 84 E 13 9047 6855 1225 Blue 7
2 PM Wed 81 85 E 8 10664 7126 1496 Blue 8
3 PM Wed 80 83 E 8 8479 6581 951 Blue 6
4 PM Wed 80 82 E 8 7141 6307 677 Blue 5
5 PM Wed 79 80 W 13 6592 5753 123 Blue 3
6 PM Wed 78 78 W 13 6036 5630 0 Blue 1
7 PM Wed 76 76 W 13 5572 5630 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 70 70 W 10 4947 5630 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 66 66 W 10 4947 5630 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 65 65 W 10 4947 5630 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 64 64 W 13 4947 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 66 66 W 13 4947 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 64 64 W 13 4947 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 64 64 W 12 4947 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 64 64 W 12 4947 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 64 64 W 12 4947 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 63 63 NW 10 4947 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 65 65 NW 10 4947 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 66 66 NW 10 4947 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 71 72 NW 8 5030 5630 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 76 78 NW 8 6036 5630 0 Blue 1
10 AM Thu 78 81 NW 8 6867 6031 401 Blue 4
11 AM Thu 80 84 N 9 9047 6855 1225 Blue 7
12 Noon Thu 81 86 N 9 10993 8452 2822 Blue 9
1 PM Thu 80 85 N 9 10664 7126 1496 Blue 8
2 PM Thu 81 86 W 13 10993 8452 2822 Blue 9
3 PM Thu 80 84 W 13 9047 6855 1225 Blue 7
4 PM Thu 80 83 W 13 8479 6581 951 Blue 6
5 PM Thu 79 80 W 17 6592 5753 123 Blue 3
6 PM Thu 77 77 W 17 5756 5630 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 75 75 W 17 5437 5630 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 69 69 W 15 4947 5630 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 65 65 W 15 4947 5630 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 63 63 W 15 4947 5630 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 62 62 W 15 4947 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 64 64 W 15 4947 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 62 62 W 15 4947 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 62 62 W 14 4947 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 62 62 W 14 4947 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 62 62 W 14 4947 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 61 61 NW 14 4947 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 63 63 NW 14 4947 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 65 65 NW 14 4947 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 70 71 NW 9 4947 5630 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 76 78 NW 9 6036 5630 0 Blue 1
10 AM Fri 79 83 NW 9 8479 6581 951 Blue 6
11 AM Fri 80 86 N 9 10993 8452 2822 Blue 9
12 Noon Fri 82 89 N 9 13355 10936 5306 Blue 12
1 PM Fri 81 88 N 9 12314 10610 4980 Blue 11
2 PM Fri 82 89 W 13 13355 10936 5306 Blue 12
3 PM Fri 81 86 W 13 10993 8452 2822 Blue 9
4 PM Fri 81 85 W 13 10664 7126 1496 Blue 8
5 PM Fri 80 82 W 18 7141 6307 677 Blue 5
6 PM Fri 78 79 W 18 6315 5630 0 Blue 2
7 PM Fri 75 75 W 18 5437 5630 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 68 68 W 16 4947 5630 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 64 64 W 16 4947 5630 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 62 62 W 16 4947 5630 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 61 61 W 15 4947 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 63 63 W 15 4947 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 62 62 W 15 4947 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 61 61 W 15 4947 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 61 61 W 15 4947 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 61 61 W 15 4947 5630 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst