Detailed Predictions for: Laguna
Launch Altitude (f): 5630
LZ Altitude (f): 2210
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

11 NOV 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Mon 48 48 NE 3 4970 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 50 50 E 3 4970 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 53 53 E 5 4970 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 56 56 E 5 4970 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 58 58 E 6 4970 5630 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 60 62 E 7 6883 5630 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 60 63 E 9 7595 5630 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 61 64 E 10 8271 6110 480 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 62 65 E 10 8735 6849 1219 Blue 1
1 PM Mon 62 65 E 10 8735 6849 1219 Blue 1
2 PM Mon 62 64 E 10 8271 6110 480 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 62 63 E 10 7595 5630 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 61 61 E 9 6128 5630 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 60 60 E 8 5320 5630 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 58 58 E 8 4970 5630 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 57 57 E 8 4970 5630 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 55 55 E 8 4970 5630 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 54 54 E 8 4970 5630 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 53 53 E 8 4970 5630 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 52 52 E 8 4970 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 51 51 E 8 4970 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 50 50 E 7 4970 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 48 48 E 7 4970 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 47 47 E 7 4970 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 47 47 E 7 4970 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 48 48 E 7 4970 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 50 50 E 7 4970 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 52 52 E 7 4970 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 54 54 E 8 4970 5630 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 56 57 E 9 4970 5630 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 57 59 E 9 4970 5630 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 59 62 E 9 6883 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 61 64 E 9 8271 6110 480 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 63 66 E 8 9130 7547 1917 Blue 2
2 PM Tue 62 64 E 8 8271 6110 480 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 62 63 E 7 7595 5630 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 61 61 E 6 6128 5630 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 59 59 E 6 4970 5630 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 57 57 E 5 4970 5630 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 55 55 E 5 4970 5630 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 54 54 E 3 4970 5630 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 53 53 E 3 4970 5630 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 52 52 E 3 4970 5630 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 51 51 E 2 4970 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 50 50 NE 2 4970 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 49 49 NE 2 4970 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 49 49 N 2 4970 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 49 49 NW 2 4970 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 50 50 W 2 4970 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 52 52 W 3 4970 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 54 54 NW 3 4970 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 56 56 N 3 4970 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 58 58 N 5 4970 5630 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 59 60 N 5 5320 5630 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 61 62 N 5 6883 5630 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 63 65 NW 5 8735 6849 1219 Blue 1
12 Noon Wed 64 66 W 5 9130 7547 1917 Blue 2
1 PM Wed 64 65 SW 5 8735 6849 1219 Blue 1
2 PM Wed 63 64 SW 6 8271 6110 480 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 60 60 W 8 5320 5630 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 57 57 W 10 4970 5630 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 56 56 W 12 4970 5630 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 55 55 W 12 4970 5630 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 55 55 W 12 4970 5630 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 53 53 W 13 4970 5630 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 51 51 W 13 4970 5630 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 49 49 W 14 4970 5630 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 48 48 W 14 4970 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 48 48 W 14 4970 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 48 48 W 14 4970 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 48 48 W 14 4970 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 47 47 SW 14 4970 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 47 47 SW 14 4970 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 50 50 SW 14 4970 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 53 53 SW 14 4970 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 56 56 SW 13 4970 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 59 59 SW 13 4970 5630 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 61 61 SW 13 6128 5630 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 60 61 SW 13 6128 5630 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 60 62 SW 13 6883 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 59 61 SW 13 6128 5630 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 57 58 W 13 4970 5630 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 54 55 W 13 4970 5630 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 51 51 W 13 4970 5630 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 50 50 SW 14 4970 5630 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 51 51 SW 14 4970 5630 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 54 54 SW 14 4970 5630 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 55 55 SW 14 4970 5630 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 54 54 SW 14 4970 5630 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 53 53 SW 14 4970 5630 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 51 51 SW 14 4970 5630 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 49 49 SW 14 4970 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 49 49 SW 14 4970 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 48 48 SW 13 4970 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 48 48 SW 13 4970 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 47 47 SW 13 4970 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 46 46 SW 12 4970 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 45 45 SW 12 4970 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 44 44 SW 12 4970 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 44 44 SW 7 4970 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 45 45 SW 7 4970 5630 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 47 47 SW 7 4970 5630 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 50 52 SW 5 4970 5630 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 55 57 SW 5 4970 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 59 61 SW 5 6128 5630 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 59 61 S 5 6128 5630 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 59 60 S 5 5320 5630 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 56 56 S 5 4970 5630 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 54 54 N 5 4970 5630 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 53 53 N 5 4970 5630 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 53 53 N 5 4970 5630 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 52 52 NE 3 4970 5630 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 50 50 NE 3 4970 5630 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 48 48 NE 3 4970 5630 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 46 46 E 5 4970 5630 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 44 44 E 5 4970 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 44 44 E 5 4970 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 44 44 E 3 4970 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 44 44 E 3 4970 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 44 44 E 3 4970 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 44 44 NE 3 4970 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 45 45 NE 3 4970 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 46 46 NE 3 4970 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 47 47 NE 5 4970 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 49 49 NE 5 4970 5630 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 52 53 NE 5 4970 5630 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 54 57 NE 8 4970 5630 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 57 60 NE 8 5320 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 60 63 NE 8 7595 5630 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 60 63 NE 10 7595 5630 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 61 63 NE 10 7595 5630 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 60 61 NE 10 6128 5630 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 58 58 NE 10 4970 5630 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 57 57 NE 10 4970 5630 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 56 56 NE 10 4970 5630 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 55 55 NE 10 4970 5630 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 53 53 NE 10 4970 5630 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 51 51 NE 10 4970 5630 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 49 49 NE 13 4970 5630 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 49 49 NE 13 4970 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 48 48 NE 13 4970 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 48 48 NE 14 4970 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 47 47 NE 14 4970 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 46 46 NE 14 4970 5630 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst