Detailed Predictions for: Laguna
Launch Altitude (f): 5630
LZ Altitude (f): 2210
Sounding

Station:

 KNKX

Date/Time:

 3 SEP 2010

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
5 AM Fri 69 69 W 9 5026 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 70 70 W 9 5026 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 72 72 W 9 5026 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 74 74 N 3 5026 5630 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 77 79 N 3 5818 5630 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 81 85 N 3 13616 12911 7281 Blue 6
11 AM Fri 85 91 NE 6 14622 13935 8305 Blue 12
12 Noon Fri 87 94 NE 6 18232 14560 8930 Blue 15
1 PM Fri 89 96 NE 6 18781 15266 9636 White 17
2 PM Fri 90 97 NE 7 18985 17570 11940 White 18
3 PM Fri 90 95 NE 7 18578 14766 9136 White 16
4 PM Fri 89 92 NE 7 14830 14144 8514 Blue 13
5 PM Fri 87 88 N 6 13994 13592 7962 Blue 9
6 PM Fri 84 84 N 6 13524 7843 2213 Blue 5
7 PM Fri 80 80 N 6 6443 5630 0 Blue 1
8 PM Fri 77 77 NW 5 5026 5630 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 75 75 NW 5 5026 5630 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 74 74 NW 5 5026 5630 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 73 73 NW 5 5026 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 72 72 NW 5 5026 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 71 71 NW 5 5026 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 70 70 N 3 5026 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 68 68 N 3 5026 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 67 67 N 3 5026 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 67 67 N 3 5026 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 68 68 N 3 5026 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 70 70 N 3 5026 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 73 73 E 2 5026 5630 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 76 78 E 2 5382 5630 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 79 83 E 2 13432 6421 791 Blue 4
11 AM Sat 82 88 NE 3 13994 13592 7962 Blue 9
12 Noon Sat 85 92 NE 3 14830 14144 8514 Blue 13
1 PM Sat 88 95 NE 3 18578 14766 9136 White 16
2 PM Sat 88 95 N 3 18578 14766 9136 White 16
3 PM Sat 89 94 N 3 18232 14560 8930 Blue 15
4 PM Sat 86 89 N 3 14204 13683 8053 Blue 10
5 PM Sat 83 84 NW 12 13524 7843 2213 Blue 5
6 PM Sat 79 79 NW 12 5818 5630 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 75 75 NW 12 5026 5630 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 71 71 W 9 5026 5630 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 70 70 W 9 5026 5630 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 70 70 W 9 5026 5630 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 70 70 W 8 5026 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 69 69 W 8 5026 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 68 68 W 8 5026 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 67 67 W 8 5026 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 66 66 W 8 5026 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 66 66 W 8 5026 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 65 65 W 10 5026 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 67 67 W 10 5026 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 69 69 W 10 5026 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 71 71 W 10 5026 5630 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 74 76 W 10 5026 5630 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 77 81 W 10 8357 5630 0 Blue 2
11 AM Sun 80 86 W 10 13708 13366 7736 Blue 7
12 Noon Sun 81 88 W 10 13994 13592 7962 Blue 9
1 PM Sun 82 89 W 10 14204 13683 8053 Blue 10
2 PM Sun 81 88 W 10 13994 13592 7962 Blue 9
3 PM Sun 80 85 W 10 13616 12911 7281 Blue 6
4 PM Sun 79 82 W 10 13150 5813 183 Blue 3
5 PM Sun 77 78 W 16 5382 5630 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 78 78 W 16 5382 5630 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 73 73 W 16 5026 5630 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 65 65 W 16 5026 5630 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 60 60 W 16 5026 5630 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 58 58 W 16 5026 5630 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 60 60 SW 8 5026 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 60 60 SW 8 5026 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 59 59 SW 8 5026 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 59 59 SW 8 5026 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 59 59 SW 8 5026 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 58 58 SW 8 5026 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 59 59 SW 10 5026 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 58 58 SW 10 5026 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 59 59 SW 10 5026 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 67 67 SW 10 5026 5630 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 72 74 SW 10 5026 5630 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 75 79 SW 10 5818 5630 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 76 82 SW 10 13150 5813 183 Blue 3
12 Noon Mon 77 84 SW 10 13524 7843 2213 Blue 5
1 PM Mon 78 85 SW 10 13616 12911 7281 Blue 6
2 PM Mon 77 84 SW 10 13524 7843 2213 Blue 5
3 PM Mon 78 83 SW 10 13432 6421 791 Blue 4
4 PM Mon 77 80 SW 10 6443 5630 0 Blue 1
5 PM Mon 76 77 SW 12 5026 5630 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 74 74 SW 12 5026 5630 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 69 69 SW 12 5026 5630 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 61 61 SW 12 5026 5630 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 57 57 SW 12 5026 5630 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 55 55 SW 12 5026 5630 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 57 57 S 12 5026 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 57 57 S 12 5026 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 56 56 S 12 5026 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 56 56 S 12 5026 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 56 56 S 12 5026 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 55 55 S 12 5026 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 56 56 SW 9 5026 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 55 55 SW 9 5026 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 56 56 SW 9 5026 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 64 64 SW 9 5026 5630 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 69 71 SW 9 5026 5630 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 72 76 SW 9 5026 5630 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 73 79 SW 9 5818 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 74 81 SW 9 8357 5630 0 Blue 2
1 PM Tue 75 82 SW 9 13150 5813 183 Blue 3
2 PM Tue 74 81 SW 9 8357 5630 0 Blue 2
3 PM Tue 75 80 SW 9 6443 5630 0 Blue 1
4 PM Tue 74 77 SW 9 5026 5630 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 73 74 SW 14 5026 5630 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 71 71 SW 14 5026 5630 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 66 66 SW 14 5026 5630 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 59 59 SW 14 5026 5630 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 55 55 SW 14 5026 5630 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 53 53 SW 14 5026 5630 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 55 55 SW 12 5026 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 55 55 SW 12 5026 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 54 54 SW 12 5026 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 54 54 SW 12 5026 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 54 54 SW 12 5026 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 53 53 SW 12 5026 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 54 54 SW 9 5026 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 53 53 SW 9 5026 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 54 54 SW 9 5026 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 61 61 SW 9 5026 5630 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 65 67 SW 9 5026 5630 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 67 71 SW 9 5026 5630 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 68 74 SW 12 5026 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 69 76 SW 12 5026 5630 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 70 77 SW 12 5026 5630 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 69 76 SW 12 5026 5630 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 70 75 SW 12 5026 5630 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 69 72 SW 12 5026 5630 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 68 69 SW 14 5026 5630 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 67 67 SW 14 5026 5630 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 63 63 SW 14 5026 5630 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 57 57 SW 14 5026 5630 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 54 54 SW 14 5026 5630 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 52 52 SW 14 5026 5630 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 53 53 SW 10 5026 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 53 53 SW 10 5026 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 53 53 SW 10 5026 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 53 53 SW 10 5026 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 52 52 SW 10 5026 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 52 52 SW 10 5026 5630 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst