Detailed Predictions for: Laguna
Launch Altitude (f): 5630
LZ Altitude (f): 2210
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Wed 37 37 SW 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Wed 37 37 SW 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Wed 37 37 SW 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Wed 37 37 SW 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Wed 40 40 SW 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Wed 45 45 SW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Wed 47 47 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Wed 48 49 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Wed 49 50 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Wed 48 49 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Wed 48 48 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Wed 49 49 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Wed 48 48 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Wed 43 43 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Wed 41 41 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Wed 41 41 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Wed 41 41 SW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Wed 41 41 SW 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Wed 41 41 SW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Wed 41 41 SW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Thu 41 41 SW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Thu 40 40 SW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Thu 40 40 SW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Thu 40 40 SW 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Thu 39 39 SW 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Thu 40 40 SW 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 40 40 SW 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 39 39 SW 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 42 42 SW 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 46 46 SW 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 47 47 SW 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 48 48 SW 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 49 49 SW 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 48 48 SW 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 49 49 SW 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 49 49 SW 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 48 48 W 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 42 42 W 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 40 40 W 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 39 39 W 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 39 39 W 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 39 39 W 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 40 40 W 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 40 40 W 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 40 40 W 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 38 38 W 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 39 39 W 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 38 38 W 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 38 38 W 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 38 38 W 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 38 38 W 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 37 37 W 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 41 41 W 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 47 47 NW 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 49 50 NW 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 51 53 NW 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 52 54 N 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 51 53 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 52 53 NE 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 52 52 NE 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 51 51 E 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 44 44 E 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 40 40 E 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 40 40 NE 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 40 40 NE 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 39 39 E 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 40 40 E 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 40 40 E 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 40 40 NE 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 39 39 NE 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 39 39 NE 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 38 38 NE 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 38 38 NE 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 38 38 NE 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 38 38 NE 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 37 37 NE 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 41 41 NE 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 46 47 NE 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 48 50 NE 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 49 51 NE 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 50 53 NE 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 50 52 E 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 50 51 E 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 50 51 E 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 49 49 E 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 44 44 E 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 41 41 E 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 41 41 E 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 41 41 E 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 41 41 E 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 41 41 E 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 41 41 E 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 41 41 E 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 40 40 E 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 40 40 E 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 40 40 E 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 39 39 E 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 40 40 E 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 40 40 E 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 39 39 E 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 44 44 E 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 50 51 E 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 53 54 E 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 54 56 E 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 56 58 E 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 56 58 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 56 57 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 55 55 NW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 55 55 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 47 47 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 44 44 W 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 43 43 NW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 43 43 NW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 42 42 NW 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 43 43 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 44 44 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 44 44 W 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 42 42 W 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 42 42 W 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 41 41 W 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 41 41 NW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 41 41 NW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 41 41 NW 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 40 40 E 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 43 43 E 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 47 48 E 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 48 50 E 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 49 51 E 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 50 52 E 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 50 52 E 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 50 51 E 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 49 49 E 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 49 49 E 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 41 41 E 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 38 38 E 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 37 37 E 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 37 37 E 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 36 36 E 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 37 37 NE 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 38 38 NE 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 38 38 NE 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 36 36 NE 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 36 36 NE 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 35 35 NE 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst