Detailed Predictions for: Laguna
Launch Altitude (f): 5630
LZ Altitude (f): 2210
Sounding

Station:

 KNKX

Date/Time:

 N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Mon 64 64 W 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 63 63 W 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 62 62 W 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 63 63 W 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 62 62 W 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 62 62 SW 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 60 60 SW 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 61 61 SW 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 69 69 WSW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 80 82 WSW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 85 89 WSW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 88 91 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 88 92 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 89 93 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 89 93 SSW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 89 92 SSW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 89 91 SSW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 88 89 SSW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 83 83 SSW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 76 76 SSW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 68 68 SSW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 64 64 SSW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 62 62 SSW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 61 61 W 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 60 60 W 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 59 59 W 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 59 59 WNW 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 59 59 WNW 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 59 59 WNW 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 58 58 WNW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 56 56 WNW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 57 57 WNW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 65 65 WNW 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 76 78 WNW 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 81 84 WNW 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 84 87 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 84 88 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 85 89 S 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 85 89 SSW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 85 88 SSW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 85 87 SSW 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 84 85 SSW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 79 79 SSW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 73 73 SSW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 66 66 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 62 62 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 60 60 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 59 59 WSW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 58 58 WSW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 57 57 WSW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 57 57 WSW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 57 57 WSW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 57 57 WSW 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Wed 56 56 WSW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Wed 54 54 WSW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Wed 55 55 WSW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Wed 63 63 SW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Wed 75 77 SW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Wed 80 84 SW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Wed 83 87 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Wed 83 88 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Wed 84 90 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Wed 84 89 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Wed 84 88 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Wed 84 86 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Wed 83 84 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Wed 78 78 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Wed 72 72 S 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Wed 65 65 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Wed 61 61 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Wed 60 60 S 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Wed 58 58 SSW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Thu 58 58 SSW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Thu 57 57 SSW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Thu 57 57 SSW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Thu 57 57 SSW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Thu 56 56 SSW 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Thu 56 56 SSW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 54 54 SSW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 55 55 SSW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 63 63 SSW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 76 78 SSW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 81 85 SSW 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 84 88 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 83 88 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 84 89 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 85 90 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 85 89 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 85 87 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 84 85 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 79 79 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 73 73 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 66 66 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 62 62 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 61 61 E 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 59 59 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 59 59 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 58 58 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 58 58 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 58 58 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 57 57 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 57 57 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 55 55 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 56 56 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 64 64 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 76 78 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 81 84 E 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 84 88 ENE 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 84 89 ENE 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 85 90 ENE 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 85 90 ENE 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 86 89 ENE 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 85 87 ENE 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 84 85 ENE 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 80 80 ENE 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 74 74 ENE 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 67 67 ENE 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 63 63 ENE 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 62 62 ENE 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 60 60 NNE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 60 60 NNE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 59 59 NNE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 59 59 NNE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 59 59 NNE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 58 58 NNE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 58 58 NNE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 56 56 NNE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 57 57 NNE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 65 65 NNE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 76 78 NNE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 81 84 NNE 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 84 88 WNW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 84 89 WNW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 85 90 WNW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 85 90 WNW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 86 89 WNW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 85 87 WNW 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the Weather Channel website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the Weather Channel estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the Weather Channel website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst