Detailed Predictions for: Laguna
Launch Altitude (f): 5630
LZ Altitude (f): 2210
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

17 MAY 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Fri 36 36 W 30 5230 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 36 36 SW 29 5230 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 36 36 SW 29 5230 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 37 37 SW 28 5230 5630 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 39 40 SW 28 5400 5630 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 40 42 W 28 5882 5630 0 Blue 1
11 AM Fri 42 46 W 25 7029 6165 535 Blue 5
12 Noon Fri 44 49 W 24 7862 7014 1384 Blue 8
1 PM Fri 46 51 W 24 8321 7566 1936 Blue 10
2 PM Fri 47 52 W 23 8524 7840 2210 Blue 11
3 PM Fri 47 51 W 23 8321 7566 1936 Blue 10
4 PM Fri 47 49 W 23 7862 7014 1384 Blue 8
5 PM Fri 46 47 W 24 7308 6452 822 Blue 6
6 PM Fri 45 45 W 23 6748 5877 247 Blue 4
7 PM Fri 46 46 W 22 7029 6165 535 Blue 5
8 PM Fri 48 48 W 21 7586 6736 1106 Blue 7
9 PM Fri 41 41 W 20 5530 5630 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 42 42 W 18 5882 5630 0 Blue 1
11 PM Fri 43 43 W 17 6173 5630 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Sat 44 44 NW 16 6462 5630 0 Blue 3
1 AM Sat 46 46 NW 15 7029 6165 535 Blue 5
2 AM Sat 47 47 NW 14 7308 6452 822 Blue 6
3 AM Sat 47 47 NW 14 7308 6452 822 Blue 6
4 AM Sat 47 47 NW 12 7308 6452 822 Blue 6
5 AM Sat 47 47 NW 9 7308 6452 822 Blue 6
6 AM Sat 48 48 NW 8 7586 6736 1106 Blue 7
7 AM Sat 49 49 N 6 7862 7014 1384 Blue 8
8 AM Sat 50 51 N 5 8321 7566 1936 Blue 10
9 AM Sat 52 55 NW 3 9129 8503 2873 Blue 14
10 AM Sat 55 60 NW 3 10464 9503 3873 Blue 19
11 AM Sat 56 61 W 5 10886 9701 4071 Blue 20
12 Noon Sat 56 61 W 7 10886 9701 4071 Blue 20
1 PM Sat 57 63 W 10 11708 10393 4763 Blue 22
2 PM Sat 56 61 W 15 10886 9701 4071 Blue 20
3 PM Sat 55 59 W 18 9929 9304 3674 Blue 18
4 PM Sat 53 55 SW 22 9129 8503 2873 Blue 14
5 PM Sat 52 53 SW 24 8726 8099 2469 Blue 12
6 PM Sat 51 51 SW 25 8321 7566 1936 Blue 10
7 PM Sat 50 50 W 26 8118 7291 1661 Blue 9
8 PM Sat 49 49 W 26 7862 7014 1384 Blue 8
9 PM Sat 47 47 W 26 7308 6452 822 Blue 6
10 PM Sat 46 46 W 26 7029 6165 535 Blue 5
11 PM Sat 45 45 W 26 6748 5877 247 Blue 4
12 Midnight Sun 44 44 W 28 6462 5630 0 Blue 3
1 AM Sun 42 42 W 29 5882 5630 0 Blue 1
2 AM Sun 41 41 W 31 5530 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 40 40 W 32 5400 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 40 40 W 33 5400 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 40 40 W 35 5400 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 40 40 W 33 5400 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 41 41 W 31 5530 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 42 42 W 30 5882 5630 0 Blue 1
9 AM Sun 43 43 W 30 6173 5630 0 Blue 2
10 AM Sun 44 45 W 32 6748 5877 247 Blue 4
11 AM Sun 45 48 W 33 7586 6736 1106 Blue 7
12 Noon Sun 44 48 W 36 7586 6736 1106 Blue 7
1 PM Sun 45 49 W 38 7862 7014 1384 Blue 8
2 PM Sun 44 47 W 39 7308 6452 822 Blue 6
3 PM Sun 43 45 W 40 6748 5877 247 Blue 4
4 PM Sun 42 44 W 40 6462 5630 0 Blue 3
5 PM Sun 40 41 W 40 5530 5630 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 39 39 W 39 5270 5630 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 37 37 W 37 5230 5630 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 36 36 W 36 5230 5630 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 36 36 W 37 5230 5630 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 36 36 W 37 5230 5630 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 37 37 W 38 5230 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 37 37 W 39 5230 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 37 37 W 39 5230 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 37 37 W 39 5230 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 37 37 W 38 5230 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 37 37 W 35 5230 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 37 37 W 33 5230 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 36 36 W 33 5230 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 36 36 W 33 5230 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 37 37 W 32 5230 5630 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 38 39 W 32 5270 5630 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 39 41 W 32 5530 5630 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 41 45 W 29 6748 5877 247 Blue 4
12 Noon Mon 42 47 W 29 7308 6452 822 Blue 6
1 PM Mon 44 49 W 29 7862 7014 1384 Blue 8
2 PM Mon 45 50 W 28 8118 7291 1661 Blue 9
3 PM Mon 45 49 W 28 7862 7014 1384 Blue 8
4 PM Mon 45 47 W 28 7308 6452 822 Blue 6
5 PM Mon 46 47 W 30 7308 6452 822 Blue 6
6 PM Mon 46 46 W 30 7029 6165 535 Blue 5
7 PM Mon 46 46 W 30 7029 6165 535 Blue 5
8 PM Mon 46 46 W 31 7029 6165 535 Blue 5
9 PM Mon 46 46 W 31 7029 6165 535 Blue 5
10 PM Mon 46 46 W 31 7029 6165 535 Blue 5
11 PM Mon 45 45 W 35 6748 5877 247 Blue 4
12 Midnight Tue 45 45 W 35 6748 5877 247 Blue 4
1 AM Tue 44 44 W 35 6462 5630 0 Blue 3
2 AM Tue 44 44 W 35 6462 5630 0 Blue 3
3 AM Tue 42 42 W 35 5882 5630 0 Blue 1
4 AM Tue 41 41 W 35 5530 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 39 39 SW 36 5270 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 37 37 SW 36 5230 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 36 36 SW 36 5230 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 36 37 SW 40 5230 5630 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 37 39 SW 40 5270 5630 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 40 43 SW 40 6173 5630 0 Blue 2
11 AM Tue 43 46 W 39 7029 6165 535 Blue 5
12 Noon Tue 45 48 W 39 7586 6736 1106 Blue 7
1 PM Tue 46 49 W 39 7862 7014 1384 Blue 8
2 PM Tue 46 49 W 47 7862 7014 1384 Blue 8
3 PM Tue 45 47 W 47 7308 6452 822 Blue 6
4 PM Tue 44 45 W 47 6748 5877 247 Blue 4
5 PM Tue 42 43 W 49 6173 5630 0 Blue 2
6 PM Tue 39 39 W 49 5270 5630 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 38 38 W 49 5230 5630 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 37 37 W 44 5230 5630 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 38 38 W 44 5230 5630 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 38 38 W 44 5230 5630 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 39 39 W 36 5270 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 40 40 W 36 5400 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 40 40 W 36 5400 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 40 40 W 31 5400 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 41 41 W 31 5530 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 42 42 W 31 5882 5630 0 Blue 1
5 AM Wed 43 43 W 26 6173 5630 0 Blue 2
6 AM Wed 43 43 W 26 6173 5630 0 Blue 2
7 AM Wed 43 43 W 26 6173 5630 0 Blue 2
8 AM Wed 44 44 W 23 6462 5630 0 Blue 3
9 AM Wed 44 45 W 23 6748 5877 247 Blue 4
10 AM Wed 45 47 W 23 7308 6452 822 Blue 6
11 AM Wed 46 50 W 21 8118 7291 1661 Blue 9
12 Noon Wed 47 51 W 21 8321 7566 1936 Blue 10
1 PM Wed 48 52 W 21 8524 7840 2210 Blue 11
2 PM Wed 48 52 W 24 8524 7840 2210 Blue 11
3 PM Wed 48 51 W 24 8321 7566 1936 Blue 10
4 PM Wed 48 50 W 24 8118 7291 1661 Blue 9
5 PM Wed 49 50 W 18 8118 7291 1661 Blue 9
6 PM Wed 49 49 W 18 7862 7014 1384 Blue 8
7 PM Wed 50 50 W 18 8118 7291 1661 Blue 9
8 PM Wed 50 50 W 15 8118 7291 1661 Blue 9
9 PM Wed 40 40 W 15 5400 5630 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 40 40 W 15 5400 5630 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 40 40 NW 12 5400 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 41 41 NW 12 5530 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 42 42 NW 12 5882 5630 0 Blue 1
2 AM Thu 42 42 NE 7 5882 5630 0 Blue 1
3 AM Thu 42 42 NE 7 5882 5630 0 Blue 1
4 AM Thu 41 41 NE 7 5530 5630 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst