Detailed Predictions for: Laguna
Launch Altitude (f): 5630
LZ Altitude (f): 2210
Sounding

Station:

 KNKX

Date/Time:

 18 MAR 2010

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
5 AM Thu 46 46 W 4 4849 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 46 46 W 4 4849 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 46 46 W 4 4849 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 47 47 W 5 4849 5630 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 49 50 W 5 4849 5630 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 52 55 W 5 8530 5630 0 Blue 1
11 AM Thu 55 60 W 5 9378 8866 3236 Blue 6
12 Noon Thu 58 64 W 5 10034 9520 3890 Blue 10
1 PM Thu 61 67 W 5 10717 10010 4380 Blue 13
2 PM Thu 62 67 W 8 10717 10010 4380 Blue 13
3 PM Thu 61 65 W 8 10250 9684 4054 Blue 11
4 PM Thu 58 60 W 8 9378 8866 3236 Blue 6
5 PM Thu 55 56 W 11 8709 5630 0 Blue 2
6 PM Thu 52 52 W 11 4849 5630 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 49 49 W 11 4849 5630 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 47 47 W 11 4849 5630 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 46 46 W 11 4849 5630 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 46 46 W 11 4849 5630 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 46 46 W 12 4849 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 47 47 W 12 4849 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 48 48 W 12 4849 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 49 49 NW 12 4849 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 49 49 NW 12 4849 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 49 49 NW 12 4849 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 49 49 N 7 4849 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 45 45 N 7 4849 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 42 42 N 7 4849 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 41 41 NE 3 4849 5630 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 42 43 NE 3 4849 5630 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 46 49 NE 3 4849 5630 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 50 55 NE 13 8530 5630 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Fri 52 58 NE 13 9049 8511 2881 Blue 4
1 PM Fri 53 59 NE 13 9214 8690 3060 Blue 5
2 PM Fri 54 59 NE 12 9214 8690 3060 Blue 5
3 PM Fri 57 61 NE 12 9543 9030 3400 Blue 7
4 PM Fri 60 62 NE 12 9707 9193 3563 Blue 8
5 PM Fri 63 64 NE 14 10034 9520 3890 Blue 10
6 PM Fri 62 62 NE 14 9707 9193 3563 Blue 8
7 PM Fri 61 61 NE 14 9543 9030 3400 Blue 7
8 PM Fri 58 58 N 4 9049 8511 2881 Blue 4
9 PM Fri 57 57 N 4 8885 7496 1866 Blue 3
10 PM Fri 55 55 N 4 8530 5630 0 Blue 1
11 PM Fri 54 54 NW 7 7589 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 53 53 NW 7 4849 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 52 52 NW 7 4849 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 52 52 NW 5 4849 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 50 50 NW 5 4849 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 49 49 NW 5 4849 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 48 48 NE 3 4849 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 49 49 NE 3 4849 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 49 49 NE 3 4849 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 50 50 NE 3 4849 5630 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 52 53 NE 3 4849 5630 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 54 57 NE 3 8885 7496 1866 Blue 3
11 AM Sat 57 61 NE 4 9543 9030 3400 Blue 7
12 Noon Sat 60 65 NE 4 10250 9684 4054 Blue 11
1 PM Sat 63 69 NE 4 12194 10445 4815 Blue 15
2 PM Sat 66 71 NE 4 14054 10907 5277 Blue 17
3 PM Sat 68 72 NE 4 14854 11961 6331 Blue 18
4 PM Sat 69 71 NE 4 14054 10907 5277 Blue 17
5 PM Sat 66 67 NW 5 10717 10010 4380 Blue 13
6 PM Sat 59 59 NW 5 9214 8690 3060 Blue 5
7 PM Sat 53 53 NW 5 4849 5630 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 49 49 NW 5 4849 5630 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 47 47 NW 5 4849 5630 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 46 46 NW 5 4849 5630 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 46 46 E 6 4849 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 45 45 E 6 4849 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 47 47 E 6 4849 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 45 45 E 6 4849 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 44 44 E 6 4849 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 43 43 E 6 4849 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 43 43 E 8 4849 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 43 43 E 8 4849 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 42 42 E 8 4849 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 45 45 E 8 4849 5630 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 51 52 E 8 4849 5630 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 57 60 E 8 9378 8866 3236 Blue 6
11 AM Sun 59 63 NE 7 9871 9357 3727 Blue 9
12 Noon Sun 61 66 NE 7 10484 9847 4217 Blue 12
1 PM Sun 63 68 NE 7 11053 10213 4583 Blue 14
2 PM Sun 65 69 NE 7 12194 10445 4815 Blue 15
3 PM Sun 65 68 NE 7 11053 10213 4583 Blue 14
4 PM Sun 66 68 NE 7 11053 10213 4583 Blue 14
5 PM Sun 63 64 E 5 10034 9520 3890 Blue 10
6 PM Sun 56 56 E 5 8709 5630 0 Blue 2
7 PM Sun 50 50 E 5 4849 5630 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 46 46 E 5 4849 5630 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 44 44 E 5 4849 5630 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 43 43 E 5 4849 5630 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 43 43 W 4 4849 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 42 42 W 4 4849 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 44 44 W 4 4849 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 42 42 W 4 4849 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 41 41 W 4 4849 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 40 40 W 4 4849 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 40 40 W 4 4849 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 40 40 W 4 4849 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 39 39 W 4 4849 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 41 41 W 4 4849 5630 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 46 47 W 4 4849 5630 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 50 52 W 4 4849 5630 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 52 56 SW 12 8709 5630 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Mon 53 57 SW 12 8885 7496 1866 Blue 3
1 PM Mon 55 60 SW 12 9378 8866 3236 Blue 6
2 PM Mon 56 60 SW 12 9378 8866 3236 Blue 6
3 PM Mon 56 59 SW 12 9214 8690 3060 Blue 5
4 PM Mon 57 59 SW 12 9214 8690 3060 Blue 5
5 PM Mon 55 56 W 15 8709 5630 0 Blue 2
6 PM Mon 49 49 W 15 4849 5630 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 44 44 W 15 4849 5630 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 41 41 W 15 4849 5630 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 39 39 W 15 4849 5630 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 38 38 W 15 4849 5630 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 38 38 W 13 4849 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 38 38 W 13 4849 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 39 39 W 13 4849 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 37 37 W 13 4849 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 37 37 W 13 4849 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 36 36 W 13 4849 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 36 36 W 10 4849 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 36 36 W 10 4849 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 35 35 W 10 4849 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 37 37 W 10 4849 5630 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 42 43 W 10 4849 5630 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 47 50 W 10 4849 5630 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 48 51 W 10 4849 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 50 53 W 10 4849 5630 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 52 55 W 10 8530 5630 0 Blue 1
2 PM Tue 53 56 W 10 8709 5630 0 Blue 2
3 PM Tue 53 55 W 10 8530 5630 0 Blue 1
4 PM Tue 54 55 W 10 8530 5630 0 Blue 1
5 PM Tue 52 52 W 14 4849 5630 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 47 47 W 14 4849 5630 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 42 42 W 14 4849 5630 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 39 39 W 14 4849 5630 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 38 38 W 14 4849 5630 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 37 37 W 14 4849 5630 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 37 37 W 12 4849 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 37 37 W 12 4849 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 38 38 W 12 4849 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 36 36 W 12 4849 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 35 35 W 12 4849 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 35 35 W 12 4849 5630 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst