Detailed Predictions for: Laguna
Launch Altitude (f): 5630
LZ Altitude (f): 2210
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

20 JUL 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Fri 64 64 S 5 5000 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 65 65 S 5 5000 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 67 67 S 5 5000 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 69 70 S 2 5778 5630 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 72 74 SE 2 6800 6060 430 Blue 1
10 AM Fri 76 80 SE 3 9520 8305 2675 Blue 7
11 AM Fri 78 82 E 5 10224 9130 3500 Blue 9
12 Noon Fri 78 83 E 5 10583 9475 3845 Blue 10
1 PM Fri 79 84 E 6 10947 9816 4186 Blue 11
2 PM Fri 78 83 NE 3 10583 9475 3845 Blue 10
3 PM Fri 76 80 NW 2 9520 8305 2675 Blue 7
4 PM Fri 74 77 W 6 8367 6793 1163 Blue 4
5 PM Fri 73 74 W 9 6800 6060 430 Blue 1
6 PM Fri 72 72 W 9 6352 5630 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 72 72 W 9 6352 5630 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 72 72 SW 9 6352 5630 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 72 72 SW 9 6352 5630 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 71 71 SW 9 6066 5630 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 71 71 SW 9 6066 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 70 70 SW 9 5778 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 68 68 SW 9 5196 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 68 68 SW 8 5196 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 67 67 SW 8 5000 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 67 67 SW 8 5000 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 67 67 SW 7 5000 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 68 68 S 6 5196 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 69 69 SW 5 5488 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 71 72 S 2 6352 5630 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 74 76 SE 2 7676 6626 996 Blue 3
10 AM Sat 77 81 SE 2 9866 8782 3152 Blue 8
11 AM Sat 79 83 E 2 10583 9475 3845 Blue 10
12 Noon Sat 80 85 E 2 11845 10170 4540 White 12
1 PM Sat 80 85 E 1 11845 10170 4540 White 12
2 PM Sat 80 85 W 5 11845 10170 4540 White 12
3 PM Sat 79 83 W 6 10583 9475 3845 Blue 10
4 PM Sat 78 81 SW 7 9866 8782 3152 Blue 8
5 PM Sat 76 78 SW 13 8820 6941 1311 Blue 5
6 PM Sat 75 75 SW 13 6948 6344 714 Blue 2
7 PM Sat 75 75 W 13 6948 6344 714 Blue 2
8 PM Sat 75 75 W 13 6948 6344 714 Blue 2
9 PM Sat 74 74 SW 13 6800 6060 430 Blue 1
10 PM Sat 74 74 SW 13 6800 6060 430 Blue 1
11 PM Sat 74 74 SW 13 6800 6060 430 Blue 1
12 Midnight Sun 73 73 SW 12 6637 5774 144 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 72 72 SW 12 6352 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 70 70 SW 12 5778 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 69 69 SW 10 5488 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 68 68 SW 10 5196 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 68 68 W 7 5196 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 70 70 W 7 5778 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 73 73 W 6 6637 5774 144 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 77 78 W 3 8820 6941 1311 Blue 5
9 AM Sun 80 82 N 2 10224 9130 3500 Blue 9
10 AM Sun 82 86 N 3 12061 10524 4894 White 13
11 AM Sun 84 90 NE 5 12916 12916 7286 White 17
12 Noon Sun 86 93 NE 5 13552 13552 7922 White 20
1 PM Sun 85 92 N 2 13340 13340 7710 White 19
2 PM Sun 85 92 W 8 13340 13340 7710 White 19
3 PM Sun 81 86 W 8 12061 10524 4894 White 13
4 PM Sun 76 80 W 8 9520 8305 2675 Blue 7
5 PM Sun 74 76 W 10 7676 6626 996 Blue 3
6 PM Sun 75 76 W 9 7676 6626 996 Blue 3
7 PM Sun 79 79 NW 9 9172 7626 1996 Blue 6
8 PM Sun 81 81 NW 9 9866 8782 3152 Blue 8
9 PM Sun 80 80 NW 8 9520 8305 2675 Blue 7
10 PM Sun 76 76 NW 8 7676 6626 996 Blue 3
11 PM Sun 73 73 NW 8 6637 5774 144 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 72 72 NW 10 6352 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 72 72 NW 13 6352 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 73 73 NW 14 6637 5774 144 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 72 72 NW 13 6352 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 72 72 NW 9 6352 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 72 72 NW 8 6352 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 73 73 NW 8 6637 5774 144 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 74 74 NW 8 6800 6060 430 Blue 1
8 AM Mon 76 77 NE 5 8367 6793 1163 Blue 4
9 AM Mon 78 80 NE 5 9520 8305 2675 Blue 7
10 AM Mon 81 85 NE 5 11845 10170 4540 White 12
11 AM Mon 84 90 E 6 12916 12916 7286 White 17
12 Noon Mon 87 94 E 6 13763 13763 8133 White 21
1 PM Mon 90 98 E 6 14593 14593 8963 White 25
2 PM Mon 91 98 NE 3 14593 14593 8963 White 25
3 PM Mon 88 94 NE 3 13763 13763 8133 White 21
4 PM Mon 83 87 NE 3 12277 10884 5254 White 14
5 PM Mon 79 81 W 13 9866 8782 3152 Blue 8
6 PM Mon 78 79 W 13 9172 7626 1996 Blue 6
7 PM Mon 79 79 W 13 9172 7626 1996 Blue 6
8 PM Mon 80 80 W 13 9520 8305 2675 Blue 7
9 PM Mon 80 80 W 13 9520 8305 2675 Blue 7
10 PM Mon 78 78 W 13 8820 6941 1311 Blue 5
11 PM Mon 76 76 NW 12 7676 6626 996 Blue 3
12 Midnight Tue 76 76 NW 12 7676 6626 996 Blue 3
1 AM Tue 75 75 NW 12 6948 6344 714 Blue 2
2 AM Tue 75 75 W 12 6948 6344 714 Blue 2
3 AM Tue 75 75 W 12 6948 6344 714 Blue 2
4 AM Tue 75 75 W 12 6948 6344 714 Blue 2
5 AM Tue 75 75 NW 7 6948 6344 714 Blue 2
6 AM Tue 76 76 NW 7 7676 6626 996 Blue 3
7 AM Tue 78 78 NW 7 8820 6941 1311 Blue 5
8 AM Tue 80 81 N 5 9866 8782 3152 Blue 8
9 AM Tue 83 86 N 5 12061 10524 4894 White 13
10 AM Tue 87 91 N 5 13129 13129 7499 White 18
11 AM Tue 90 96 NE 2 14181 14181 8551 White 23
12 Noon Tue 92 99 NE 2 14799 14799 9169 White 26
1 PM Tue 93 100 NE 2 15005 15005 9375 White 27
2 PM Tue 92 98 W 5 14593 14593 8963 White 25
3 PM Tue 90 95 W 5 13973 13973 8343 White 22
4 PM Tue 86 90 W 5 12916 12916 7286 White 17
5 PM Tue 84 86 W 14 12061 10524 4894 White 13
6 PM Tue 82 83 W 14 10583 9475 3845 Blue 10
7 PM Tue 82 82 W 14 10224 9130 3500 Blue 9
8 PM Tue 83 83 W 16 10583 9475 3845 Blue 10
9 PM Tue 82 82 W 16 10224 9130 3500 Blue 9
10 PM Tue 82 82 W 16 10224 9130 3500 Blue 9
11 PM Tue 81 81 W 17 9866 8782 3152 Blue 8
12 Midnight Wed 80 80 W 17 9520 8305 2675 Blue 7
1 AM Wed 79 79 W 17 9172 7626 1996 Blue 6
2 AM Wed 78 78 W 15 8820 6941 1311 Blue 5
3 AM Wed 78 78 W 15 8820 6941 1311 Blue 5
4 AM Wed 78 78 W 15 8820 6941 1311 Blue 5
5 AM Wed 79 79 NW 9 9172 7626 1996 Blue 6
6 AM Wed 80 80 NW 9 9520 8305 2675 Blue 7
7 AM Wed 82 82 NW 9 10224 9130 3500 Blue 9
8 AM Wed 85 86 NE 5 12061 10524 4894 White 13
9 AM Wed 88 91 NE 5 13129 13129 7499 White 18
10 AM Wed 90 94 NE 5 13763 13763 8133 White 21
11 AM Wed 92 98 SE 3 14593 14593 8963 White 25
12 Noon Wed 93 100 SE 3 15005 15005 9375 White 27
1 PM Wed 92 99 SE 3 14799 14799 9169 White 26
2 PM Wed 90 97 W 7 14387 14387 8757 White 24
3 PM Wed 87 93 W 7 13552 13552 7922 White 20
4 PM Wed 83 87 W 7 12277 10884 5254 White 14
5 PM Wed 81 83 W 15 10583 9475 3845 Blue 10
6 PM Wed 80 81 W 15 9866 8782 3152 Blue 8
7 PM Wed 80 80 W 15 9520 8305 2675 Blue 7
8 PM Wed 79 79 W 16 9172 7626 1996 Blue 6
9 PM Wed 78 78 W 16 8820 6941 1311 Blue 5
10 PM Wed 76 76 W 16 7676 6626 996 Blue 3
11 PM Wed 75 75 W 17 6948 6344 714 Blue 2
12 Midnight Thu 76 76 W 17 7676 6626 996 Blue 3
1 AM Thu 78 78 W 17 8820 6941 1311 Blue 5
2 AM Thu 78 78 W 17 8820 6941 1311 Blue 5
3 AM Thu 78 78 W 17 8820 6941 1311 Blue 5
4 AM Thu 76 76 W 17 7676 6626 996 Blue 3

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst