Detailed Predictions for: Laguna
Launch Altitude (f): 5630
LZ Altitude (f): 2210
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

17 NOV 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Sat 46 46 NW 7 4954 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 47 47 NW 7 4954 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 47 47 NW 6 4954 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 48 48 NW 6 4954 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 54 54 NW 5 5949 5630 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 55 56 N 3 6878 5630 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 56 58 N 3 7833 6403 773 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 57 59 NE 3 8158 6857 1227 Blue 1
12 Noon Sat 57 59 NE 2 8158 6857 1227 Blue 1
1 PM Sat 57 59 N 2 8158 6857 1227 Blue 1
2 PM Sat 58 59 NW 3 8158 6857 1227 Blue 1
3 PM Sat 57 57 W 5 7329 5940 310 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 56 56 W 8 6878 5630 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 52 52 W 7 4977 5630 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 49 49 W 5 4954 5630 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 48 48 W 6 4954 5630 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 47 47 W 7 4954 5630 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 47 47 W 8 4954 5630 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 47 47 W 8 4954 5630 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 46 46 W 6 4954 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 46 46 W 5 4954 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 46 46 NW 3 4954 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 46 46 NW 2 4954 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 46 46 NW 1 4954 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 46 46 NE 2 4954 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 46 46 NE 3 4954 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 47 47 NE 5 4954 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 47 47 E 7 4954 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 52 52 E 7 4977 5630 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 53 54 E 8 5949 5630 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 54 56 E 9 6878 5630 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 54 56 E 10 6878 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 54 56 E 10 6878 5630 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 54 56 E 10 6878 5630 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 55 56 E 10 6878 5630 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 54 54 E 9 5949 5630 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 53 53 E 8 5468 5630 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 50 50 E 9 4954 5630 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 47 47 E 9 4954 5630 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 46 46 E 9 4954 5630 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 46 46 E 10 4954 5630 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 46 46 E 10 4954 5630 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 46 46 E 10 4954 5630 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 45 45 E 10 4954 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 45 45 E 9 4954 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 45 45 E 10 4954 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 45 45 E 10 4954 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 45 45 E 10 4954 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 45 45 E 9 4954 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 46 46 E 9 4954 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 46 46 E 9 4954 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 46 46 E 10 4954 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 51 51 E 10 4954 5630 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 52 53 E 10 5468 5630 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 53 54 E 13 5949 5630 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 53 54 E 13 5949 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 54 56 E 13 6878 5630 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 53 54 E 12 5949 5630 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 54 55 E 12 6418 5630 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 53 53 E 12 5468 5630 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 52 52 E 10 4977 5630 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 49 49 E 10 4954 5630 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 46 46 E 10 4954 5630 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 45 45 E 10 4954 5630 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 44 44 E 10 4954 5630 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 44 44 E 10 4954 5630 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 44 44 E 9 4954 5630 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 43 43 E 9 4954 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 43 43 E 9 4954 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 43 43 E 8 4954 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 43 43 E 8 4954 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 43 43 E 8 4954 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 43 43 E 7 4954 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 44 44 E 7 4954 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 44 44 E 7 4954 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 44 44 E 6 4954 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 49 49 E 6 4954 5630 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 50 51 E 6 4954 5630 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 51 53 E 6 5468 5630 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 51 53 E 6 5468 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 52 54 E 6 5949 5630 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 52 54 NE 5 5949 5630 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 52 53 NE 5 5468 5630 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 51 51 NE 5 4954 5630 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 50 50 NW 3 4954 5630 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 48 48 NW 3 4954 5630 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 46 46 NW 3 4954 5630 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 45 45 N 5 4954 5630 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 45 45 N 5 4954 5630 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 45 45 N 5 4954 5630 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 45 45 N 1 4954 5630 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 44 44 N 1 4954 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 44 44 N 1 4954 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 44 44 SW 1 4954 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 44 44 SW 1 4954 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 44 44 SW 1 4954 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 44 44 S 2 4954 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 44 44 S 2 4954 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 44 44 S 2 4954 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 45 45 SE 3 4954 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 48 48 SE 3 4954 5630 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 49 50 SE 3 4954 5630 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 49 50 E 5 4954 5630 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 49 50 E 5 4954 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 50 51 E 5 4954 5630 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 50 51 S 2 4954 5630 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 50 51 S 2 4954 5630 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 50 50 S 2 4954 5630 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 49 49 SW 5 4954 5630 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 47 47 SW 5 4954 5630 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 46 46 SW 5 4954 5630 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 45 45 SW 18 4954 5630 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 45 45 SW 18 4954 5630 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 45 45 SW 18 4954 5630 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 45 45 W 18 4954 5630 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 44 44 W 18 4954 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 44 44 W 18 4954 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 44 44 SW 21 4954 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 44 44 SW 21 4954 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 44 44 SW 21 4954 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 44 44 W 17 4954 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 44 44 W 17 4954 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 44 44 W 17 4954 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 45 45 NW 14 4954 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 50 50 NW 14 4954 5630 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 50 50 NW 14 4954 5630 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 51 51 NW 9 4954 5630 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 51 51 NW 9 4954 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 52 52 NW 9 4977 5630 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 52 52 NW 9 4977 5630 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 52 52 NW 9 4977 5630 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 51 51 NW 9 4954 5630 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 50 50 NW 6 4954 5630 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 48 48 NW 6 4954 5630 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 45 45 NW 6 4954 5630 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 44 44 W 5 4954 5630 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 44 44 W 5 4954 5630 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 44 44 W 5 4954 5630 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 44 44 W 7 4954 5630 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 43 43 W 7 4954 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 43 43 W 7 4954 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 43 43 W 13 4954 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 43 43 W 13 4954 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 43 43 W 13 4954 5630 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst