Detailed Predictions for: Laguna
Launch Altitude (f): 5630
LZ Altitude (f): 2210
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

21 SEP 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Fri 60 60 S 7 5328 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 60 60 S 7 5328 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 60 60 S 6 5328 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 68 68 S 3 5328 5630 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 76 78 SE 3 10514 9208 3578 Blue 6
10 AM Fri 76 79 E 3 10863 9635 4005 Blue 7
11 AM Fri 78 82 E 7 12159 10803 5173 Blue 10
12 Noon Fri 78 83 E 7 12225 12013 6383 Blue 11
1 PM Fri 79 84 E 8 12403 12079 6449 Blue 12
2 PM Fri 78 83 E 7 12225 12013 6383 Blue 11
3 PM Fri 78 81 E 5 12093 10457 4827 Blue 9
4 PM Fri 78 80 NE 2 12027 10055 4425 Blue 8
5 PM Fri 76 77 NW 3 10117 8771 3141 Blue 5
6 PM Fri 75 75 W 3 9261 5718 88 Blue 3
7 PM Fri 72 72 NW 2 5727 5630 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 66 66 NE 2 5328 5630 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 64 64 NE 3 5328 5630 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 63 63 NE 3 5328 5630 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 62 62 E 2 5328 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 62 62 E 3 5328 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 62 62 E 3 5328 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 61 61 SE 5 5328 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 61 61 SE 5 5328 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 60 60 SE 6 5328 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 60 60 E 6 5328 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 60 60 SE 6 5328 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 60 60 SE 6 5328 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 68 68 SE 7 5328 5630 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 76 78 SE 7 10514 9208 3578 Blue 6
10 AM Sat 76 79 E 8 10863 9635 4005 Blue 7
11 AM Sat 78 82 E 9 12159 10803 5173 Blue 10
12 Noon Sat 78 83 E 9 12225 12013 6383 Blue 11
1 PM Sat 79 85 E 9 13342 12144 6514 Blue 13
2 PM Sat 78 83 E 8 12225 12013 6383 Blue 11
3 PM Sat 78 82 NE 7 12159 10803 5173 Blue 10
4 PM Sat 78 80 NW 3 12027 10055 4425 Blue 8
5 PM Sat 76 77 W 8 10117 8771 3141 Blue 5
6 PM Sat 75 75 W 9 9261 5718 88 Blue 3
7 PM Sat 72 72 W 9 5727 5630 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 66 66 W 12 5328 5630 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 64 64 W 12 5328 5630 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 63 63 W 13 5328 5630 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 62 62 W 13 5328 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 62 62 W 13 5328 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 62 62 W 13 5328 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 61 61 W 14 5328 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 61 61 W 15 5328 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 60 60 W 16 5328 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 60 60 W 17 5328 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 60 60 SW 17 5328 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 60 60 SW 17 5328 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 68 68 SW 16 5328 5630 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 75 76 SW 16 9693 6566 936 Blue 4
10 AM Sun 76 79 SW 16 10863 9635 4005 Blue 7
11 AM Sun 77 82 SW 16 12159 10803 5173 Blue 10
12 Noon Sun 77 83 SW 16 12225 12013 6383 Blue 11
1 PM Sun 78 84 SW 17 12403 12079 6449 Blue 12
2 PM Sun 77 82 W 20 12159 10803 5173 Blue 10
3 PM Sun 77 81 W 20 12093 10457 4827 Blue 9
4 PM Sun 77 79 W 21 10863 9635 4005 Blue 7
5 PM Sun 76 77 SW 23 10117 8771 3141 Blue 5
6 PM Sun 74 74 SW 25 8820 5630 0 Blue 2
7 PM Sun 71 71 SW 24 5412 5630 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 65 65 SW 23 5328 5630 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 63 63 SW 23 5328 5630 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 62 62 SW 22 5328 5630 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 61 61 SW 23 5328 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 61 61 SW 23 5328 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 61 61 SW 23 5328 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 60 60 SW 23 5328 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 60 60 SW 23 5328 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 60 60 SW 23 5328 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 59 59 SW 10 5328 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 60 60 SW 10 5328 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 59 59 SW 10 5328 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 67 67 SW 5 5328 5630 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 74 76 SW 5 9693 6566 936 Blue 4
10 AM Mon 75 78 SW 5 10514 9208 3578 Blue 6
11 AM Mon 76 81 NE 2 12093 10457 4827 Blue 9
12 Noon Mon 76 82 NE 2 12159 10803 5173 Blue 10
1 PM Mon 77 83 NE 2 12225 12013 6383 Blue 11
2 PM Mon 77 83 NW 5 12225 12013 6383 Blue 11
3 PM Mon 76 80 NW 5 12027 10055 4425 Blue 8
4 PM Mon 76 78 NW 5 10514 9208 3578 Blue 6
5 PM Mon 74 75 NW 7 9261 5718 88 Blue 3
6 PM Mon 73 73 NW 7 6596 5630 0 Blue 1
7 PM Mon 70 70 NW 7 5328 5630 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 64 64 N 7 5328 5630 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 62 62 N 7 5328 5630 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 61 61 N 7 5328 5630 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 60 60 N 3 5328 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 60 60 N 3 5328 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 60 60 N 3 5328 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 59 59 E 2 5328 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 59 59 E 2 5328 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 58 58 E 2 5328 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 58 58 E 6 5328 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 59 59 E 6 5328 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 58 58 E 6 5328 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 67 67 E 7 5328 5630 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 75 77 E 7 10117 8771 3141 Blue 5
10 AM Tue 75 78 E 7 10514 9208 3578 Blue 6
11 AM Tue 76 81 E 10 12093 10457 4827 Blue 9
12 Noon Tue 77 83 E 10 12225 12013 6383 Blue 11
1 PM Tue 78 84 E 10 12403 12079 6449 Blue 12
2 PM Tue 78 84 E 14 12403 12079 6449 Blue 12
3 PM Tue 77 81 E 14 12093 10457 4827 Blue 9
4 PM Tue 77 79 E 14 10863 9635 4005 Blue 7
5 PM Tue 76 77 E 10 10117 8771 3141 Blue 5
6 PM Tue 74 74 E 10 8820 5630 0 Blue 2
7 PM Tue 71 71 E 10 5412 5630 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 65 65 E 8 5328 5630 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 63 63 E 8 5328 5630 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 62 62 E 8 5328 5630 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 61 61 E 3 5328 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 61 61 E 3 5328 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 61 61 E 3 5328 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 60 60 E 5 5328 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 60 60 E 5 5328 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 60 60 E 5 5328 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 59 59 E 6 5328 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 60 60 E 6 5328 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 59 59 E 6 5328 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 67 67 E 8 5328 5630 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 75 77 E 8 10117 8771 3141 Blue 5
10 AM Wed 76 79 E 8 10863 9635 4005 Blue 7
11 AM Wed 76 81 E 10 12093 10457 4827 Blue 9
12 Noon Wed 77 83 E 10 12225 12013 6383 Blue 11
1 PM Wed 78 84 E 10 12403 12079 6449 Blue 12
2 PM Wed 78 83 E 12 12225 12013 6383 Blue 11
3 PM Wed 78 82 E 12 12159 10803 5173 Blue 10
4 PM Wed 77 79 E 12 10863 9635 4005 Blue 7
5 PM Wed 76 77 N 5 10117 8771 3141 Blue 5
6 PM Wed 74 74 N 5 8820 5630 0 Blue 2
7 PM Wed 71 71 N 5 5412 5630 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 66 66 NE 5 5328 5630 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 64 64 NE 5 5328 5630 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 63 63 NE 5 5328 5630 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 62 62 NW 5 5328 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 62 62 NW 5 5328 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 62 62 NW 5 5328 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 61 61 W 3 5328 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 61 61 W 3 5328 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 60 60 W 3 5328 5630 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst