Detailed Predictions for: Laguna
Launch Altitude (f): 5630
LZ Altitude (f): 2210
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

22 APR 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 57 57 NW 6 5292 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 58 58 N 6 5292 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 59 59 N 5 5374 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 61 62 N 3 6945 5630 0 Blue 2
9 AM Sun 62 64 NE 5 9504 6232 602 Blue 4
10 AM Sun 64 68 NE 6 11898 11514 5884 Blue 8
11 AM Sun 66 71 E 6 12355 11879 6249 Blue 10
12 Noon Sun 68 74 NE 5 13221 12319 6689 Blue 13
1 PM Sun 68 74 N 3 13221 12319 6689 Blue 13
2 PM Sun 69 75 NW 3 13709 12477 6847 Blue 14
3 PM Sun 67 71 NW 6 12355 11879 6249 Blue 10
4 PM Sun 64 67 W 9 11809 9327 3697 Blue 7
5 PM Sun 62 63 W 14 7919 5843 213 Blue 3
6 PM Sun 61 61 W 14 6241 5630 0 Blue 1
7 PM Sun 61 61 W 14 6241 5630 0 Blue 1
8 PM Sun 61 61 W 14 6241 5630 0 Blue 1
9 PM Sun 60 60 W 15 5850 5630 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 60 60 W 15 5850 5630 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 60 60 W 15 5850 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 60 60 W 15 5850 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 60 60 W 15 5850 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 59 59 W 14 5374 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 59 59 W 14 5374 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 59 59 W 14 5374 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 59 59 W 13 5374 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 60 60 W 13 5850 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 61 61 W 12 6241 5630 0 Blue 1
8 AM Mon 62 63 W 8 7919 5843 213 Blue 3
9 AM Mon 64 67 W 7 11809 9327 3697 Blue 7
10 AM Mon 66 71 W 6 12355 11879 6249 Blue 10
11 AM Mon 68 74 N 2 13221 12319 6689 Blue 13
12 Noon Mon 69 76 N 2 14185 12636 7006 Blue 15
1 PM Mon 69 76 NW 3 14185 12636 7006 Blue 15
2 PM Mon 69 75 NW 5 13709 12477 6847 Blue 14
3 PM Mon 69 74 W 7 13221 12319 6689 Blue 13
4 PM Mon 67 70 W 9 12195 11791 6161 Blue 9
5 PM Mon 66 67 W 10 11809 9327 3697 Blue 7
6 PM Mon 66 66 W 9 11721 7772 2142 Blue 6
7 PM Mon 66 66 W 7 11721 7772 2142 Blue 6
8 PM Mon 66 66 NW 5 11721 7772 2142 Blue 6
9 PM Mon 65 65 W 5 11557 6902 1272 Blue 5
10 PM Mon 63 63 W 7 7919 5843 213 Blue 3
11 PM Mon 62 62 W 8 6945 5630 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Tue 60 60 W 9 5850 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 60 60 W 9 5850 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 59 59 W 9 5374 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 59 59 W 9 5374 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 58 58 W 9 5292 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 58 58 W 7 5292 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 59 59 NW 6 5374 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 61 61 NW 5 6241 5630 0 Blue 1
8 AM Tue 63 64 NE 6 9504 6232 602 Blue 4
9 AM Tue 64 66 NE 7 11721 7772 2142 Blue 6
10 AM Tue 66 70 E 8 12195 11791 6161 Blue 9
11 AM Tue 67 72 E 10 12515 12001 6371 Blue 11
12 Noon Tue 69 74 E 12 13221 12319 6689 Blue 13
1 PM Tue 70 76 E 10 14185 12636 7006 Blue 15
2 PM Tue 70 75 E 7 13709 12477 6847 Blue 14
3 PM Tue 71 75 SE 8 13709 12477 6847 Blue 14
4 PM Tue 69 71 SW 9 12355 11879 6249 Blue 10
5 PM Tue 68 69 W 9 12035 11702 6072 Blue 9
6 PM Tue 66 66 W 10 11721 7772 2142 Blue 6
7 PM Tue 65 65 W 9 11557 6902 1272 Blue 5
8 PM Tue 65 65 W 9 11557 6902 1272 Blue 5
9 PM Tue 65 65 W 9 11557 6902 1272 Blue 5
10 PM Tue 66 66 W 9 11721 7772 2142 Blue 6
11 PM Tue 65 65 SW 9 11557 6902 1272 Blue 5
12 Midnight Wed 64 64 SW 9 9504 6232 602 Blue 4
1 AM Wed 62 62 SW 9 6945 5630 0 Blue 2
2 AM Wed 60 60 W 13 5850 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 60 60 W 13 5850 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 60 60 W 13 5850 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 61 61 W 10 6241 5630 0 Blue 1
6 AM Wed 61 61 W 10 6241 5630 0 Blue 1
7 AM Wed 62 62 W 10 6945 5630 0 Blue 2
8 AM Wed 63 64 NW 9 9504 6232 602 Blue 4
9 AM Wed 64 66 NW 9 11721 7772 2142 Blue 6
10 AM Wed 65 69 NW 9 12035 11702 6072 Blue 9
11 AM Wed 66 71 NE 9 12355 11879 6249 Blue 10
12 Noon Wed 66 72 NE 9 12515 12001 6371 Blue 11
1 PM Wed 64 70 NE 9 12195 11791 6161 Blue 9
2 PM Wed 64 70 N 10 12195 11791 6161 Blue 9
3 PM Wed 63 67 N 10 11809 9327 3697 Blue 7
4 PM Wed 64 67 N 10 11809 9327 3697 Blue 7
5 PM Wed 64 65 W 12 11557 6902 1272 Blue 5
6 PM Wed 64 64 W 12 9504 6232 602 Blue 4
7 PM Wed 63 63 W 12 7919 5843 213 Blue 3
8 PM Wed 63 63 W 13 7919 5843 213 Blue 3
9 PM Wed 63 63 W 13 7919 5843 213 Blue 3
10 PM Wed 62 62 W 13 6945 5630 0 Blue 2
11 PM Wed 62 62 W 13 6945 5630 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Thu 62 62 W 13 6945 5630 0 Blue 2
1 AM Thu 61 61 W 13 6241 5630 0 Blue 1
2 AM Thu 60 60 W 14 5850 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 60 60 W 14 5850 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 59 59 W 14 5374 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 59 59 W 14 5374 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 61 61 W 14 6241 5630 0 Blue 1
7 AM Thu 63 63 W 14 7919 5843 213 Blue 3
8 AM Thu 66 67 W 12 11809 9327 3697 Blue 7
9 AM Thu 67 69 W 12 12035 11702 6072 Blue 9
10 AM Thu 68 72 W 12 12515 12001 6371 Blue 11
11 AM Thu 68 74 NW 9 13221 12319 6689 Blue 13
12 Noon Thu 67 74 NW 9 13221 12319 6689 Blue 13
1 PM Thu 67 74 NW 9 13221 12319 6689 Blue 13
2 PM Thu 66 72 W 13 12515 12001 6371 Blue 11
3 PM Thu 66 71 W 13 12355 11879 6249 Blue 10
4 PM Thu 67 70 W 13 12195 11791 6161 Blue 9
5 PM Thu 67 68 W 16 11898 11514 5884 Blue 8
6 PM Thu 66 66 W 16 11721 7772 2142 Blue 6
7 PM Thu 65 65 W 16 11557 6902 1272 Blue 5
8 PM Thu 63 63 W 17 7919 5843 213 Blue 3
9 PM Thu 62 62 W 17 6945 5630 0 Blue 2
10 PM Thu 60 60 W 17 5850 5630 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 59 59 W 16 5374 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 58 58 W 16 5292 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 58 58 W 16 5292 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 57 57 W 17 5292 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 56 56 W 17 5292 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 55 55 W 17 5292 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 54 54 W 17 5292 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 54 54 W 17 5292 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 56 56 W 17 5292 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 60 61 W 20 6241 5630 0 Blue 1
9 AM Fri 63 65 W 20 11557 6902 1272 Blue 5
10 AM Fri 66 70 W 20 12195 11791 6161 Blue 9
11 AM Fri 66 72 W 21 12515 12001 6371 Blue 11
12 Noon Fri 66 73 W 21 12718 12160 6530 Blue 12
1 PM Fri 64 71 W 21 12355 11879 6249 Blue 10
2 PM Fri 63 69 W 21 12035 11702 6072 Blue 9
3 PM Fri 62 67 W 21 11809 9327 3697 Blue 7
4 PM Fri 61 64 W 21 9504 6232 602 Blue 4
5 PM Fri 60 61 W 21 6241 5630 0 Blue 1
6 PM Fri 59 59 W 21 5374 5630 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 58 58 W 21 5292 5630 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 57 57 W 20 5292 5630 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 56 56 W 20 5292 5630 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 55 55 W 20 5292 5630 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 54 54 W 18 5292 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 53 53 W 18 5292 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 52 52 W 18 5292 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 52 52 W 18 5292 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 51 51 W 18 5292 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 50 50 W 18 5292 5630 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst