Detailed Predictions for: Laguna
Launch Altitude (f): 5630
LZ Altitude (f): 2210
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

25 MAR 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Mon 44 44 SE 6 5036 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 44 44 SE 6 5036 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 43 43 SE 6 5036 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 46 46 SE 6 5036 5630 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 51 53 SE 6 5036 5630 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 52 55 E 6 6100 5630 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 56 61 E 6 8880 7944 2314 Blue 5
12 Noon Mon 57 63 E 6 9475 8547 2917 Blue 7
1 PM Mon 59 65 E 6 12145 9142 3512 Blue 9
2 PM Mon 59 64 E 6 9956 8846 3216 Blue 8
3 PM Mon 59 63 E 5 9475 8547 2917 Blue 7
4 PM Mon 58 60 N 3 8579 7639 2009 Blue 4
5 PM Mon 58 59 W 7 8275 7164 1534 Blue 3
6 PM Mon 56 56 W 8 7225 5630 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 53 53 W 7 5036 5630 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 51 51 SW 8 5036 5630 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 49 49 SW 8 5036 5630 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 49 49 SW 8 5036 5630 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 49 49 SW 9 5036 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 48 48 SW 10 5036 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 49 49 SW 12 5036 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 48 48 SW 13 5036 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 48 48 SW 14 5036 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 48 48 SW 15 5036 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 47 47 SW 15 5036 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 47 47 SW 14 5036 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 46 46 SW 14 5036 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 48 48 SW 13 5036 5630 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 53 54 SW 12 5036 5630 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 54 56 SW 10 7225 5630 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 57 60 SW 10 8579 7639 2009 Blue 4
12 Noon Tue 58 61 SW 10 8880 7944 2314 Blue 5
1 PM Tue 60 63 SW 13 9475 8547 2917 Blue 7
2 PM Tue 60 63 W 14 9475 8547 2917 Blue 7
3 PM Tue 59 61 W 15 8880 7944 2314 Blue 5
4 PM Tue 58 59 SW 16 8275 7164 1534 Blue 3
5 PM Tue 58 58 SW 17 7969 6073 443 Blue 2
6 PM Tue 55 55 SW 17 6100 5630 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 52 52 SW 18 5036 5630 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 49 49 SW 18 5036 5630 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 47 47 SW 18 5036 5630 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 46 46 SW 18 5036 5630 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 46 46 SW 20 5036 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 46 46 SW 21 5036 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 46 46 SW 22 5036 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 45 45 W 23 5036 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 45 45 W 23 5036 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 45 45 W 24 5036 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 44 44 W 24 5036 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 43 43 W 24 5036 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 42 42 W 24 5036 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 44 44 W 24 5036 5630 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 47 47 W 25 5036 5630 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 47 48 W 26 5036 5630 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 49 51 W 28 5036 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 50 53 W 29 5036 5630 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 51 54 W 31 5036 5630 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 51 54 W 32 5036 5630 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 51 53 W 35 5036 5630 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 50 51 W 36 5036 5630 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 49 49 W 36 5036 5630 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 47 47 W 31 5036 5630 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 45 45 W 26 5036 5630 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 43 43 W 23 5036 5630 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 41 41 W 22 5036 5630 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 40 40 W 23 5036 5630 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 41 41 W 24 5036 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 40 40 W 24 5036 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 40 40 W 24 5036 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 40 40 W 24 5036 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 39 39 W 24 5036 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 39 39 W 25 5036 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 38 38 W 25 5036 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 38 38 W 25 5036 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 37 37 W 25 5036 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 40 40 W 25 5036 5630 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 45 46 W 25 5036 5630 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 46 48 W 25 5036 5630 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 49 53 W 23 5036 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 50 55 W 23 6100 5630 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 52 57 W 23 7661 5630 0 Blue 1
2 PM Thu 53 58 W 24 7969 6073 443 Blue 2
3 PM Thu 52 56 W 24 7225 5630 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 51 53 W 24 5036 5630 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 51 52 W 23 5036 5630 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 49 49 W 23 5036 5630 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 47 47 W 23 5036 5630 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 46 46 W 21 5036 5630 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 44 44 W 21 5036 5630 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 43 43 W 21 5036 5630 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 44 44 W 20 5036 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 43 43 W 20 5036 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 43 43 W 20 5036 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 43 43 W 20 5036 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 43 43 W 20 5036 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 43 43 W 20 5036 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 42 42 W 20 5036 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 42 42 W 20 5036 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 41 41 W 20 5036 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 44 44 NW 15 5036 5630 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 48 50 NW 15 5036 5630 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 49 52 NW 15 5036 5630 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 52 56 N 9 7225 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 54 59 N 9 8275 7164 1534 Blue 3
1 PM Fri 55 60 N 9 8579 7639 2009 Blue 4
2 PM Fri 56 61 NE 12 8880 7944 2314 Blue 5
3 PM Fri 54 58 NE 12 7969 6073 443 Blue 2
4 PM Fri 53 55 NE 12 6100 5630 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 52 53 N 14 5036 5630 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 49 49 N 14 5036 5630 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 45 45 N 14 5036 5630 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 42 42 NE 14 5036 5630 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 39 39 NE 14 5036 5630 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 37 37 NE 14 5036 5630 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 38 38 E 13 5036 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 37 37 E 13 5036 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 38 38 E 13 5036 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 37 37 E 17 5036 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 36 36 E 17 5036 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 36 36 E 17 5036 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 35 35 NE 20 5036 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 34 34 NE 20 5036 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 33 33 NE 20 5036 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 37 37 E 20 5036 5630 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 44 45 E 20 5036 5630 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 45 48 E 20 5036 5630 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 49 53 E 17 5036 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 51 56 E 17 7225 5630 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 53 59 E 17 8275 7164 1534 Blue 3
2 PM Sat 55 60 NE 20 8579 7639 2009 Blue 4
3 PM Sat 54 58 NE 20 7969 6073 443 Blue 2
4 PM Sat 53 55 NE 20 6100 5630 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 52 53 NE 21 5036 5630 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 50 50 NE 21 5036 5630 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 47 47 NE 21 5036 5630 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 45 45 NE 17 5036 5630 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 43 43 NE 17 5036 5630 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 42 42 NE 17 5036 5630 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 43 43 NE 15 5036 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 42 42 NE 15 5036 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 42 42 NE 15 5036 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 42 42 NE 16 5036 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 41 41 NE 16 5036 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 42 42 NE 16 5036 5630 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst