Detailed Predictions for: Laguna
Launch Altitude (f): 5630
LZ Altitude (f): 2210
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

21 JAN 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Sun 33 33 S 2 5184 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 33 33 SE 1 5184 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 32 32 NE 1 5184 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 32 32 N 1 5184 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 33 33 N 2 5184 5630 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 34 35 NE 3 5475 5630 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 35 37 NE 5 5740 5630 0 Blue 2
11 AM Sun 36 38 E 5 5872 5630 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Sun 38 40 E 6 7314 5739 109 Blue 5
1 PM Sun 39 41 E 6 7530 5870 240 Blue 6
2 PM Sun 40 41 E 6 7530 5870 240 Blue 6
3 PM Sun 42 42 E 5 7746 6268 638 Blue 7
4 PM Sun 41 41 SE 2 7530 5870 240 Blue 6
5 PM Sun 41 41 S 1 7530 5870 240 Blue 6
6 PM Sun 38 38 NW 2 5872 5630 0 Blue 3
7 PM Sun 35 35 N 3 5475 5630 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 34 34 N 3 5184 5630 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 35 35 N 3 5475 5630 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 37 37 NE 3 5740 5630 0 Blue 2
11 PM Sun 36 36 NE 3 5608 5630 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Mon 36 36 NE 2 5608 5630 0 Blue 1
1 AM Mon 36 36 E 3 5608 5630 0 Blue 1
2 AM Mon 36 36 E 3 5608 5630 0 Blue 1
3 AM Mon 36 36 E 3 5608 5630 0 Blue 1
4 AM Mon 36 36 E 3 5608 5630 0 Blue 1
5 AM Mon 36 36 E 3 5608 5630 0 Blue 1
6 AM Mon 36 36 E 5 5608 5630 0 Blue 1
7 AM Mon 36 36 E 5 5608 5630 0 Blue 1
8 AM Mon 36 36 E 5 5608 5630 0 Blue 1
9 AM Mon 38 38 E 5 5872 5630 0 Blue 3
10 AM Mon 39 40 E 6 7314 5739 109 Blue 5
11 AM Mon 40 42 E 6 7746 6268 638 Blue 7
12 Noon Mon 42 44 E 7 8143 7515 1885 Blue 9
1 PM Mon 43 45 NE 7 8266 7729 2099 Blue 10
2 PM Mon 43 44 NE 8 8143 7515 1885 Blue 9
3 PM Mon 44 44 NE 8 8143 7515 1885 Blue 9
4 PM Mon 44 44 NE 8 8143 7515 1885 Blue 9
5 PM Mon 45 45 NE 8 8266 7729 2099 Blue 10
6 PM Mon 45 45 NE 8 8266 7729 2099 Blue 10
7 PM Mon 45 45 NE 9 8266 7729 2099 Blue 10
8 PM Mon 40 40 NE 9 7314 5739 109 Blue 5
9 PM Mon 41 41 NE 9 7530 5870 240 Blue 6
10 PM Mon 41 41 NE 9 7530 5870 240 Blue 6
11 PM Mon 41 41 E 8 7530 5870 240 Blue 6
12 Midnight Tue 41 41 NE 8 7530 5870 240 Blue 6
1 AM Tue 42 42 NE 7 7746 6268 638 Blue 7
2 AM Tue 43 43 NE 7 7961 7300 1670 Blue 8
3 AM Tue 44 44 NE 8 8143 7515 1885 Blue 9
4 AM Tue 44 44 NE 8 8143 7515 1885 Blue 9
5 AM Tue 43 43 NE 9 7961 7300 1670 Blue 8
6 AM Tue 41 41 NE 9 7530 5870 240 Blue 6
7 AM Tue 41 41 E 12 7530 5870 240 Blue 6
8 AM Tue 42 42 E 12 7746 6268 638 Blue 7
9 AM Tue 44 45 E 13 8266 7729 2099 Blue 10
10 AM Tue 46 48 E 12 9439 8254 2624 Blue 13
11 AM Tue 47 50 NE 13 10257 8876 3246 Blue 15
12 Noon Tue 48 51 E 14 10404 9373 3743 Blue 16
1 PM Tue 49 51 E 14 10404 9373 3743 Blue 16
2 PM Tue 49 51 E 14 10404 9373 3743 Blue 16
3 PM Tue 50 51 E 14 10404 9373 3743 Blue 16
4 PM Tue 51 51 E 14 10404 9373 3743 Blue 16
5 PM Tue 51 51 E 13 10404 9373 3743 Blue 16
6 PM Tue 52 52 E 13 10552 9857 4227 Blue 17
7 PM Tue 52 52 E 12 10552 9857 4227 Blue 17
8 PM Tue 52 52 E 13 10552 9857 4227 Blue 17
9 PM Tue 51 51 E 12 10404 9373 3743 Blue 16
10 PM Tue 50 50 E 12 10257 8876 3246 Blue 15
11 PM Tue 48 48 E 12 9439 8254 2624 Blue 13
12 Midnight Wed 47 47 E 12 8936 8132 2502 Blue 12
1 AM Wed 46 46 E 10 8418 7943 2313 Blue 11
2 AM Wed 46 46 E 10 8418 7943 2313 Blue 11
3 AM Wed 46 46 E 9 8418 7943 2313 Blue 11
4 AM Wed 45 45 E 6 8266 7729 2099 Blue 10
5 AM Wed 45 45 E 6 8266 7729 2099 Blue 10
6 AM Wed 45 45 E 6 8266 7729 2099 Blue 10
7 AM Wed 46 46 E 7 8418 7943 2313 Blue 11
8 AM Wed 47 47 E 7 8936 8132 2502 Blue 12
9 AM Wed 49 50 E 7 10257 8876 3246 Blue 15
10 AM Wed 51 53 E 7 10699 10232 4602 Blue 18
11 AM Wed 52 54 E 7 10846 10379 4749 Blue 19
12 Noon Wed 53 55 E 7 11101 10526 4896 Blue 20
1 PM Wed 54 56 SE 6 11369 10672 5042 Blue 21
2 PM Wed 54 55 SE 6 11101 10526 4896 Blue 20
3 PM Wed 54 55 SE 6 11101 10526 4896 Blue 20
4 PM Wed 54 54 S 6 10846 10379 4749 Blue 19
5 PM Wed 54 54 S 6 10846 10379 4749 Blue 19
6 PM Wed 54 54 S 6 10846 10379 4749 Blue 19
7 PM Wed 54 54 S 8 10846 10379 4749 Blue 19
8 PM Wed 53 53 S 8 10699 10232 4602 Blue 18
9 PM Wed 52 52 S 8 10552 9857 4227 Blue 17
10 PM Wed 52 52 SW 12 10552 9857 4227 Blue 17
11 PM Wed 52 52 SW 12 10552 9857 4227 Blue 17
12 Midnight Thu 52 52 SW 12 10552 9857 4227 Blue 17
1 AM Thu 51 51 SW 15 10404 9373 3743 Blue 16
2 AM Thu 50 50 SW 15 10257 8876 3246 Blue 15
3 AM Thu 49 49 SW 15 9930 8376 2746 Blue 14
4 AM Thu 47 47 SW 18 8936 8132 2502 Blue 12
5 AM Thu 46 46 SW 18 8418 7943 2313 Blue 11
6 AM Thu 45 45 SW 18 8266 7729 2099 Blue 10
7 AM Thu 47 47 W 21 8936 8132 2502 Blue 12
8 AM Thu 45 45 W 21 8266 7729 2099 Blue 10
9 AM Thu 42 42 W 21 7746 6268 638 Blue 7
10 AM Thu 44 45 W 25 8266 7729 2099 Blue 10
11 AM Thu 41 42 W 25 7746 6268 638 Blue 7
12 Noon Thu 39 40 W 25 7314 5739 109 Blue 5
1 PM Thu 36 37 W 31 5740 5630 0 Blue 2
2 PM Thu 35 36 W 31 5608 5630 0 Blue 1
3 PM Thu 34 34 W 31 5184 5630 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 34 34 W 35 5184 5630 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 35 35 W 35 5475 5630 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 36 36 W 35 5608 5630 0 Blue 1
7 PM Thu 36 36 W 31 5608 5630 0 Blue 1
8 PM Thu 36 36 W 31 5608 5630 0 Blue 1
9 PM Thu 36 36 W 31 5608 5630 0 Blue 1
10 PM Thu 36 36 W 24 5608 5630 0 Blue 1
11 PM Thu 36 36 W 24 5608 5630 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Fri 37 37 W 24 5740 5630 0 Blue 2
1 AM Fri 37 37 W 22 5740 5630 0 Blue 2
2 AM Fri 38 38 W 22 5872 5630 0 Blue 3
3 AM Fri 38 38 W 22 5872 5630 0 Blue 3
4 AM Fri 39 39 W 20 6310 5630 0 Blue 4
5 AM Fri 40 40 W 20 7314 5739 109 Blue 5
6 AM Fri 41 41 W 20 7530 5870 240 Blue 6
7 AM Fri 43 43 NW 16 7961 7300 1670 Blue 8
8 AM Fri 45 45 NW 16 8266 7729 2099 Blue 10
9 AM Fri 47 48 NW 16 9439 8254 2624 Blue 13
10 AM Fri 48 50 NW 14 10257 8876 3246 Blue 15
11 AM Fri 48 50 NW 14 10257 8876 3246 Blue 15
12 Noon Fri 47 49 NW 14 9930 8376 2746 Blue 14
1 PM Fri 46 48 N 10 9439 8254 2624 Blue 13
2 PM Fri 46 47 N 10 8936 8132 2502 Blue 12
3 PM Fri 46 47 N 10 8936 8132 2502 Blue 12
4 PM Fri 46 46 NE 9 8418 7943 2313 Blue 11
5 PM Fri 46 46 NE 9 8418 7943 2313 Blue 11
6 PM Fri 46 46 NE 9 8418 7943 2313 Blue 11
7 PM Fri 45 45 NE 10 8266 7729 2099 Blue 10
8 PM Fri 45 45 NE 10 8266 7729 2099 Blue 10
9 PM Fri 45 45 NE 10 8266 7729 2099 Blue 10
10 PM Fri 44 44 E 13 8143 7515 1885 Blue 9
11 PM Fri 44 44 E 13 8143 7515 1885 Blue 9
12 Midnight Sat 43 43 E 13 7961 7300 1670 Blue 8
1 AM Sat 43 43 E 13 7961 7300 1670 Blue 8
2 AM Sat 42 42 E 13 7746 6268 638 Blue 7
3 AM Sat 42 42 E 13 7746 6268 638 Blue 7

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst