Detailed Predictions for: Laguna
Launch Altitude (f): 5630
LZ Altitude (f): 2210
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

18 SEP 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Wed 56 56 SW 21 5013 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 56 56 SW 21 5013 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 58 58 SW 20 5013 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 60 60 SW 18 5013 5630 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 63 65 SW 17 5375 5630 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 65 68 SW 16 6268 5630 0 Blue 2
11 AM Wed 68 73 SW 16 8853 7346 1716 Blue 7
12 Noon Wed 69 75 SW 17 9296 8379 2749 Blue 9
1 PM Wed 68 74 SW 18 9075 7870 2240 Blue 8
2 PM Wed 68 74 SW 21 9075 7870 2240 Blue 8
3 PM Wed 67 71 SW 22 7911 6252 622 Blue 5
4 PM Wed 65 68 SW 23 6268 5630 0 Blue 2
5 PM Wed 63 64 SW 24 5267 5630 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 62 62 SW 23 5050 5630 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 61 61 SW 20 5013 5630 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 60 60 SW 18 5013 5630 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 60 60 SW 20 5013 5630 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 59 59 SW 20 5013 5630 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 58 58 SW 20 5013 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 57 57 SW 21 5013 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 56 56 SW 22 5013 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 54 54 SW 22 5013 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 53 53 SW 22 5013 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 52 52 SW 22 5013 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 51 51 SW 22 5013 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 52 52 SW 23 5013 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 55 55 SW 23 5013 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 58 58 SW 23 5013 5630 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 61 63 SW 23 5158 5630 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 62 65 SW 23 5375 5630 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 64 69 SW 24 6833 5630 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Thu 63 69 SW 25 6833 5630 0 Blue 3
1 PM Thu 64 71 SW 26 7911 6252 622 Blue 5
2 PM Thu 63 69 SW 28 6833 5630 0 Blue 3
3 PM Thu 62 67 SW 30 5838 5630 0 Blue 1
4 PM Thu 61 64 SW 30 5267 5630 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 60 61 SW 30 5013 5630 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 58 58 SW 28 5013 5630 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 56 56 SW 24 5013 5630 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 55 55 SW 22 5013 5630 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 55 55 SW 21 5013 5630 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 56 56 SW 20 5013 5630 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 56 56 SW 20 5013 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 56 56 SW 20 5013 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 54 54 SW 20 5013 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 52 52 W 18 5013 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 50 50 W 17 5013 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 49 49 W 15 5013 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 49 49 W 14 5013 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 51 51 W 12 5013 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 53 53 NW 9 5013 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 55 55 N 8 5013 5630 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 56 58 N 8 5013 5630 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 57 61 NE 9 5013 5630 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 59 64 NE 10 5267 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 61 67 NE 12 5838 5630 0 Blue 1
1 PM Fri 63 69 E 14 6833 5630 0 Blue 3
2 PM Fri 66 72 E 15 8428 6808 1178 Blue 6
3 PM Fri 67 71 E 14 7911 6252 622 Blue 5
4 PM Fri 68 71 E 13 7911 6252 622 Blue 5
5 PM Fri 67 68 E 10 6268 5630 0 Blue 2
6 PM Fri 68 68 E 9 6268 5630 0 Blue 2
7 PM Fri 66 66 NE 8 5493 5630 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 65 65 NE 7 5375 5630 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 63 63 NE 7 5158 5630 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 61 61 NE 7 5013 5630 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 60 60 NE 7 5013 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 58 58 E 8 5013 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 57 57 E 8 5013 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 55 55 E 9 5013 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 53 53 E 9 5013 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 52 52 E 9 5013 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 52 52 E 9 5013 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 54 54 E 9 5013 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 57 57 E 9 5013 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 60 60 E 9 5013 5630 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 61 63 E 9 5158 5630 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 61 64 E 9 5267 5630 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 62 67 E 14 5838 5630 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Sat 64 70 E 14 7380 5833 203 Blue 4
1 PM Sat 66 72 E 14 8428 6808 1178 Blue 6
2 PM Sat 68 74 E 16 9075 7870 2240 Blue 8
3 PM Sat 70 74 E 16 9075 7870 2240 Blue 8
4 PM Sat 71 74 E 16 9075 7870 2240 Blue 8
5 PM Sat 70 71 E 14 7911 6252 622 Blue 5
6 PM Sat 71 71 E 14 7911 6252 622 Blue 5
7 PM Sat 70 70 E 14 7380 5833 203 Blue 4
8 PM Sat 69 69 E 8 6833 5630 0 Blue 3
9 PM Sat 67 67 E 8 5838 5630 0 Blue 1
10 PM Sat 65 65 E 8 5375 5630 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 63 63 E 8 5158 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 62 62 E 8 5050 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 60 60 E 8 5013 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 58 58 E 9 5013 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 56 56 E 9 5013 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 54 54 E 9 5013 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 53 53 SE 10 5013 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 55 55 SE 10 5013 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 58 58 SE 10 5013 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 61 61 SE 9 5013 5630 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 63 64 SE 9 5267 5630 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 64 67 SE 9 5838 5630 0 Blue 1
11 AM Sun 66 70 SE 10 7380 5833 203 Blue 4
12 Noon Sun 69 74 SE 10 9075 7870 2240 Blue 8
1 PM Sun 72 77 SE 10 10223 9049 3419 Blue 11
2 PM Sun 72 77 S 13 10223 9049 3419 Blue 11
3 PM Sun 72 76 S 13 9574 8828 3198 Blue 10
4 PM Sun 69 71 S 13 7911 6252 622 Blue 5
5 PM Sun 67 68 SW 16 6268 5630 0 Blue 2
6 PM Sun 67 67 SW 16 5838 5630 0 Blue 1
7 PM Sun 67 67 SW 16 5838 5630 0 Blue 1
8 PM Sun 67 67 SW 15 5838 5630 0 Blue 1
9 PM Sun 66 66 SW 15 5493 5630 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 65 65 SW 15 5375 5630 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 63 63 SW 18 5158 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 63 63 SW 18 5158 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 62 62 SW 18 5050 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 61 61 SW 24 5013 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 60 60 SW 24 5013 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 58 58 SW 24 5013 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 57 57 SW 28 5013 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 56 56 SW 28 5013 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 56 56 SW 28 5013 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 68 68 SW 25 6268 5630 0 Blue 2
9 AM Mon 62 63 SW 25 5158 5630 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 52 55 SW 25 5013 5630 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 54 58 SW 26 5013 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 50 55 SW 26 5013 5630 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 48 53 SW 26 5013 5630 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 48 53 SW 31 5013 5630 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 47 50 SW 31 5013 5630 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 47 49 SW 31 5013 5630 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 47 48 SW 28 5013 5630 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 48 48 SW 28 5013 5630 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 49 49 SW 28 5013 5630 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 50 50 W 17 5013 5630 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 52 52 W 17 5013 5630 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 54 54 W 17 5013 5630 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 54 54 W 12 5013 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 54 54 W 12 5013 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 53 53 W 12 5013 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 52 52 NW 10 5013 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 50 50 NW 10 5013 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 49 49 NW 10 5013 5630 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst