Detailed Predictions for: Laguna
Launch Altitude (f): 5630
LZ Altitude (f): 2210
Sounding

Station:

 KNKX

Date/Time:

 4 FEB 2012

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
4 AM Sat 32 32 E 9 4902 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 32 32 E 9 4902 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 31 31 E 9 4902 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 31 31 E 9 4902 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 36 36 E 9 4902 5630 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 40 41 E 9 4902 5630 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 42 44 E 14 6681 5630 0 Blue 1
11 AM Sat 44 46 E 14 7263 5851 221 Blue 3
12 Noon Sat 45 48 E 14 7468 7155 1525 Blue 5
1 PM Sat 46 48 E 14 7468 7155 1525 Blue 5
2 PM Sat 47 49 E 14 7570 7257 1627 Blue 6
3 PM Sat 46 47 E 14 7365 6648 1018 Blue 4
4 PM Sat 44 44 E 9 6681 5630 0 Blue 1
5 PM Sat 41 41 E 9 4902 5630 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 38 38 E 9 4902 5630 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 38 38 E 8 4902 5630 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 38 38 E 8 4902 5630 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 37 37 E 8 4902 5630 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 38 38 E 10 4902 5630 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 37 37 E 10 4902 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 38 38 E 10 4902 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 37 37 E 9 4902 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 37 37 E 9 4902 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 37 37 E 9 4902 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 37 37 E 8 4902 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 37 37 E 8 4902 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 36 36 E 8 4902 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 36 36 E 10 4902 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 40 40 E 10 4902 5630 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 44 45 E 10 7161 5630 0 Blue 2
10 AM Sun 45 47 E 12 7365 6648 1018 Blue 4
11 AM Sun 47 49 E 12 7570 7257 1627 Blue 6
12 Noon Sun 48 50 E 12 7672 7359 1729 Blue 7
1 PM Sun 48 50 E 10 7672 7359 1729 Blue 7
2 PM Sun 49 50 E 10 7672 7359 1729 Blue 7
3 PM Sun 48 49 E 10 7570 7257 1627 Blue 6
4 PM Sun 45 45 E 8 7161 5630 0 Blue 2
5 PM Sun 41 41 E 8 4902 5630 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 37 37 E 8 4902 5630 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 37 37 E 8 4902 5630 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 37 37 E 8 4902 5630 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 36 36 E 8 4902 5630 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 37 37 E 8 4902 5630 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 37 37 E 8 4902 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 37 37 E 8 4902 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 37 37 E 7 4902 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 36 36 E 7 4902 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 36 36 E 7 4902 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 36 36 E 7 4902 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 36 36 E 7 4902 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 35 35 E 7 4902 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 35 35 E 7 4902 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 39 39 E 7 4902 5630 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 43 44 E 7 6681 5630 0 Blue 1
10 AM Mon 44 45 SE 0 7161 5630 0 Blue 2
11 AM Mon 46 48 SE 0 7468 7155 1525 Blue 5
12 Noon Mon 47 49 SE 0 7570 7257 1627 Blue 6
1 PM Mon 47 49 SE 0 7570 7257 1627 Blue 6
2 PM Mon 48 49 SE 0 7570 7257 1627 Blue 6
3 PM Mon 48 49 SE 0 7570 7257 1627 Blue 6
4 PM Mon 46 46 NW 1 7263 5851 221 Blue 3
5 PM Mon 44 44 NW 1 6681 5630 0 Blue 1
6 PM Mon 42 42 NW 1 4902 5630 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 42 42 NW 1 4902 5630 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 42 42 NW 1 4902 5630 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 42 42 NW 1 4902 5630 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 42 42 N 2 4902 5630 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 42 42 N 2 4902 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 42 42 N 2 4902 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 42 42 N 2 4902 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 42 42 N 2 4902 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 42 42 N 2 4902 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 42 42 S 6 4902 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 41 41 S 6 4902 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 41 41 S 6 4902 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 41 41 S 6 4902 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 42 42 S 6 4902 5630 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 43 43 S 6 5864 5630 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 44 45 E 10 7161 5630 0 Blue 2
11 AM Tue 44 45 E 10 7161 5630 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Tue 45 46 E 10 7263 5851 221 Blue 3
1 PM Tue 44 45 E 10 7161 5630 0 Blue 2
2 PM Tue 45 46 E 10 7263 5851 221 Blue 3
3 PM Tue 44 44 E 10 6681 5630 0 Blue 1
4 PM Tue 43 43 SE 1 5864 5630 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 40 40 SE 1 4902 5630 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 37 37 SE 1 4902 5630 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 37 37 SE 1 4902 5630 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 37 37 SE 1 4902 5630 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 37 37 SE 1 4902 5630 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 37 37 E 3 4902 5630 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 37 37 E 3 4902 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 37 37 E 3 4902 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 37 37 E 3 4902 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 37 37 E 3 4902 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 37 37 E 3 4902 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 37 37 N 7 4902 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 36 36 N 7 4902 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 36 36 N 7 4902 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 36 36 N 7 4902 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 38 38 N 7 4902 5630 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 39 39 N 7 4902 5630 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 40 40 NE 18 4902 5630 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 40 40 NE 18 4902 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 40 40 NE 18 4902 5630 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 40 40 NE 18 4902 5630 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 40 40 NE 18 4902 5630 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 40 40 NE 18 4902 5630 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 40 40 NE 20 4902 5630 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 40 40 NE 20 4902 5630 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 41 41 NE 20 4902 5630 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 41 41 NE 20 4902 5630 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 41 41 NE 20 4902 5630 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 41 41 NE 20 4902 5630 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 41 41 NE 15 4902 5630 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 41 41 NE 15 4902 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 41 41 NE 15 4902 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 41 41 NE 15 4902 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 41 41 NE 15 4902 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 41 41 NE 15 4902 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 41 41 NE 12 4902 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 41 41 NE 12 4902 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 41 41 NE 12 4902 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 41 41 NE 12 4902 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 44 44 NE 12 6681 5630 0 Blue 1
9 AM Thu 47 48 NE 12 7468 7155 1525 Blue 5
10 AM Thu 49 51 NE 22 7775 7461 1831 Blue 8
11 AM Thu 50 52 NE 22 8259 7563 1933 Blue 9
12 Noon Thu 51 53 NE 22 8417 7665 2035 Blue 10
1 PM Thu 51 53 NE 22 8417 7665 2035 Blue 10
2 PM Thu 52 53 NE 22 8417 7665 2035 Blue 10
3 PM Thu 52 53 NE 22 8417 7665 2035 Blue 10
4 PM Thu 51 51 NE 21 7775 7461 1831 Blue 8
5 PM Thu 49 49 NE 21 7570 7257 1627 Blue 6
6 PM Thu 48 48 NE 21 7468 7155 1525 Blue 5
7 PM Thu 48 48 NE 21 7468 7155 1525 Blue 5
8 PM Thu 48 48 NE 21 7468 7155 1525 Blue 5
9 PM Thu 48 48 NE 21 7468 7155 1525 Blue 5
10 PM Thu 48 48 NE 13 7468 7155 1525 Blue 5
11 PM Thu 48 48 NE 13 7468 7155 1525 Blue 5
12 Midnight Fri 48 48 NE 13 7468 7155 1525 Blue 5
1 AM Fri 48 48 NE 13 7468 7155 1525 Blue 5
2 AM Fri 48 48 NE 13 7468 7155 1525 Blue 5
3 AM Fri 47 47 NE 13 7365 6648 1018 Blue 4

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst