Detailed Predictions for: Laguna
Launch Altitude (f): 5630
LZ Altitude (f): 2210
Sounding

Station:

 KNKX

Date/Time:

 11 MAR 2010

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
7 AM Thu 32 32 NE 12 4885 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 37 38 NE 12 5866 5630 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 44 47 NE 12 7497 7149 1519 Blue 6
10 AM Thu 47 51 NE 16 8807 7763 2133 Blue 10
11 AM Thu 51 56 NE 16 9618 9166 3536 Blue 15
12 Noon Thu 50 56 NE 16 9618 9166 3536 Blue 15
1 PM Thu 52 57 E 12 9762 9310 3680 Blue 16
2 PM Thu 51 55 E 12 9473 9022 3392 Blue 14
3 PM Thu 50 52 E 12 9040 8102 2472 Blue 11
4 PM Thu 48 49 NE 7 8133 7376 1746 Blue 8
5 PM Thu 45 45 NE 7 7270 6923 1293 Blue 5
6 PM Thu 41 41 NE 7 6815 5860 230 Blue 1
7 PM Thu 38 38 NE 6 5866 5630 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 36 36 NE 6 5116 5630 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 36 36 NE 6 5116 5630 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 37 37 NE 4 5494 5630 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 35 35 NE 4 4885 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 36 36 NE 4 5116 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 37 37 E 4 5494 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 37 37 E 4 5494 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 36 36 E 4 5116 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 36 36 E 3 5116 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 35 35 E 3 4885 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 36 36 E 3 5116 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 38 38 NE 2 5866 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 44 45 NE 2 7270 6923 1293 Blue 5
9 AM Fri 51 54 NE 2 9329 8769 3139 Blue 13
10 AM Fri 54 58 NW 3 9906 9454 3824 Blue 17
11 AM Fri 58 63 NW 3 12094 10339 4709 Blue 22
12 Noon Fri 57 62 NW 3 11400 10047 4417 Blue 21
1 PM Fri 59 63 W 5 12094 10339 4709 Blue 22
2 PM Fri 58 61 W 5 10680 9885 4255 Blue 20
3 PM Fri 57 59 W 5 10093 9598 3968 Blue 18
4 PM Fri 53 53 W 8 9185 8437 2807 Blue 12
5 PM Fri 50 50 W 8 8472 7489 1859 Blue 9
6 PM Fri 44 44 W 8 7156 6810 1180 Blue 4
7 PM Fri 40 40 W 5 6599 5630 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 38 38 W 5 5866 5630 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 38 38 W 5 5866 5630 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 38 38 W 9 5866 5630 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 37 37 W 9 5494 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 37 37 W 9 5494 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 38 38 W 8 5866 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 39 39 W 8 6235 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 38 38 W 8 5866 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 37 37 W 11 5494 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 36 36 W 11 5116 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 36 36 W 11 5116 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 38 38 W 11 5866 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 42 43 W 11 7042 6584 954 Blue 3
9 AM Sat 46 48 W 11 7790 7263 1633 Blue 7
10 AM Sat 48 51 W 17 8807 7763 2133 Blue 10
11 AM Sat 50 54 W 17 9329 8769 3139 Blue 13
12 Noon Sat 50 54 W 17 9329 8769 3139 Blue 13
1 PM Sat 51 55 W 17 9473 9022 3392 Blue 14
2 PM Sat 50 53 W 17 9185 8437 2807 Blue 12
3 PM Sat 49 51 W 17 8807 7763 2133 Blue 10
4 PM Sat 47 47 W 19 7497 7149 1519 Blue 6
5 PM Sat 45 45 W 19 7270 6923 1293 Blue 5
6 PM Sat 40 40 W 19 6599 5630 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 38 38 W 19 5866 5630 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 36 36 W 19 5116 5630 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 36 36 W 19 5116 5630 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 36 36 W 7 5116 5630 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 35 35 W 7 4885 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 36 36 W 7 5116 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 36 36 W 7 5116 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 37 37 W 7 5494 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 36 36 W 7 5116 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 36 36 NE 4 5116 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 35 35 NE 4 4885 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 36 36 NE 4 5116 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 38 38 NE 4 5866 5630 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 43 44 NE 4 7156 6810 1180 Blue 4
9 AM Sun 49 51 NE 4 8807 7763 2133 Blue 10
10 AM Sun 51 55 NE 9 9473 9022 3392 Blue 14
11 AM Sun 55 60 NE 9 10387 9741 4111 Blue 19
12 Noon Sun 55 60 NE 9 10387 9741 4111 Blue 19
1 PM Sun 56 61 NE 9 10680 9885 4255 Blue 20
2 PM Sun 55 59 NE 9 10093 9598 3968 Blue 18
3 PM Sun 54 56 NE 9 9618 9166 3536 Blue 15
4 PM Sun 52 53 NE 10 9185 8437 2807 Blue 12
5 PM Sun 49 49 NE 10 8133 7376 1746 Blue 8
6 PM Sun 44 44 NE 10 7156 6810 1180 Blue 4
7 PM Sun 41 41 NE 10 6815 5860 230 Blue 1
8 PM Sun 39 39 NE 10 6235 5630 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 39 39 NE 10 6235 5630 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 40 40 NE 12 6599 5630 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 38 38 NE 12 5866 5630 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 39 39 NE 12 6235 5630 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 40 40 NE 12 6599 5630 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 40 40 NE 12 6599 5630 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 39 39 NE 12 6235 5630 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 39 39 NE 10 6235 5630 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 38 38 NE 10 5866 5630 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 39 39 NE 10 6235 5630 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 42 42 NE 10 6929 6224 594 Blue 2
8 AM Mon 48 49 NE 10 8133 7376 1746 Blue 8
9 AM Mon 56 59 NE 10 10093 9598 3968 Blue 18
10 AM Mon 59 63 E 12 12094 10339 4709 Blue 22
11 AM Mon 63 69 E 12 15620 13799 8169 Blue 28
12 Noon Mon 63 69 E 12 15620 13799 8169 Blue 28
1 PM Mon 65 70 E 12 16335 14366 8736 Blue 29
2 PM Mon 64 68 E 12 15090 13209 7579 Blue 27
3 PM Mon 63 65 E 12 13373 11257 5627 Blue 24
4 PM Mon 59 60 NE 14 10387 9741 4111 Blue 19
5 PM Mon 56 56 NE 14 9618 9166 3536 Blue 15
6 PM Mon 50 50 NE 14 8472 7489 1859 Blue 9
7 PM Mon 46 46 NE 14 7383 7036 1406 Blue 6
8 PM Mon 44 44 NE 14 7156 6810 1180 Blue 4
9 PM Mon 44 44 NE 14 7156 6810 1180 Blue 4
10 PM Mon 44 44 E 14 7156 6810 1180 Blue 4
11 PM Mon 43 43 E 14 7042 6584 954 Blue 3
12 Midnight Tue 43 43 E 14 7042 6584 954 Blue 3
1 AM Tue 44 44 E 14 7156 6810 1180 Blue 4
2 AM Tue 45 45 E 14 7270 6923 1293 Blue 5
3 AM Tue 44 44 E 14 7156 6810 1180 Blue 4
4 AM Tue 43 43 E 11 7042 6584 954 Blue 3
5 AM Tue 42 42 E 11 6929 6224 594 Blue 2
6 AM Tue 43 43 E 11 7042 6584 954 Blue 3
7 AM Tue 45 45 E 11 7270 6923 1293 Blue 5
8 AM Tue 51 52 E 11 9040 8102 2472 Blue 11
9 AM Tue 58 61 E 11 10680 9885 4255 Blue 20
10 AM Tue 61 65 E 11 13373 11257 5627 Blue 24
11 AM Tue 65 70 E 11 16335 14366 8736 Blue 29
12 Noon Tue 64 69 E 11 15620 13799 8169 Blue 28
1 PM Tue 66 71 E 11 17021 14911 9281 White 30
2 PM Tue 65 69 E 11 15620 13799 8169 Blue 28
3 PM Tue 64 66 E 11 13969 11943 6313 Blue 25
4 PM Tue 60 61 E 11 10680 9885 4255 Blue 20
5 PM Tue 57 57 E 11 9762 9310 3680 Blue 16
6 PM Tue 51 51 E 11 8807 7763 2133 Blue 10
7 PM Tue 47 47 E 11 7497 7149 1519 Blue 6
8 PM Tue 45 45 E 11 7270 6923 1293 Blue 5
9 PM Tue 45 45 E 11 7270 6923 1293 Blue 5
10 PM Tue 45 45 E 5 7270 6923 1293 Blue 5
11 PM Tue 44 44 E 5 7156 6810 1180 Blue 4
12 Midnight Wed 44 44 E 5 7156 6810 1180 Blue 4
1 AM Wed 45 45 E 5 7270 6923 1293 Blue 5
2 AM Wed 46 46 E 5 7383 7036 1406 Blue 6
3 AM Wed 45 45 E 5 7270 6923 1293 Blue 5
4 AM Wed 44 44 SE 3 7156 6810 1180 Blue 4
5 AM Wed 43 43 SE 3 7042 6584 954 Blue 3
6 AM Wed 43 43 SE 3 7042 6584 954 Blue 3

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst