Detailed Predictions for: Kagel
Launch Altitude (f): 3540
LZ Altitude (f): 1340
Sounding

Station:

 KNKX

Date/Time:

 4 FEB 2012

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
4 AM Sat 45 45 NE 26 2592 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 45 45 NE 26 2592 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 46 46 NE 26 2592 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 47 47 NE 26 2592 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 50 50 NE 26 2592 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 53 54 NE 26 2592 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 56 58 NE 26 5830 3540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 59 61 NE 26 7244 5748 2208 Blue 3
12 Noon Sat 60 63 NE 26 7442 7131 3591 Blue 5
1 PM Sat 61 63 NE 15 7442 7131 3591 Blue 5
2 PM Sat 61 63 NE 15 7442 7131 3591 Blue 5
3 PM Sat 61 62 NE 15 7343 6506 2966 Blue 4
4 PM Sat 59 59 NE 13 6602 3540 0 Blue 1
5 PM Sat 57 57 NE 13 3567 3540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 55 55 NE 13 2592 3540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 53 53 NE 17 2592 3540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 52 52 NE 17 2592 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 52 52 NE 17 2592 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 52 52 NE 21 2592 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 51 51 NE 21 2592 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 51 51 NE 21 2592 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 50 50 NE 21 2592 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 50 50 NE 21 2592 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 50 50 NE 21 2592 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 50 50 NE 21 2592 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 50 50 NE 21 2592 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 50 50 NE 21 2592 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 51 51 NE 21 2592 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 53 53 NE 21 2592 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 55 56 NE 21 2592 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 58 59 NE 15 6602 3540 0 Blue 1
11 AM Sun 60 62 NE 15 7343 6506 2966 Blue 4
12 Noon Sun 61 63 NE 15 7442 7131 3591 Blue 5
1 PM Sun 62 64 NE 12 7541 7229 3689 Blue 6
2 PM Sun 62 63 NE 12 7442 7131 3591 Blue 5
3 PM Sun 62 63 NE 12 7442 7131 3591 Blue 5
4 PM Sun 61 61 E 7 7244 5748 2208 Blue 3
5 PM Sun 59 59 E 7 6602 3540 0 Blue 1
6 PM Sun 57 57 E 7 3567 3540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 55 55 E 7 2592 3540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 54 54 E 7 2592 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 54 54 E 7 2592 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 53 53 NE 12 2592 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 53 53 NE 12 2592 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 53 53 NE 12 2592 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 53 53 NE 12 2592 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 52 52 NE 12 2592 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 52 52 NE 12 2592 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 52 52 NE 14 2592 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 52 52 NE 14 2592 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 52 52 NE 14 2592 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 53 53 NE 14 2592 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 54 54 NE 14 2592 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 56 56 NE 14 2592 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 58 59 NE 7 6602 3540 0 Blue 1
11 AM Mon 60 62 NE 7 7343 6506 2966 Blue 4
12 Noon Mon 62 64 NE 7 7541 7229 3689 Blue 6
1 PM Mon 63 65 NE 7 7640 7328 3788 Blue 7
2 PM Mon 63 64 NE 7 7541 7229 3689 Blue 6
3 PM Mon 62 63 NE 7 7442 7131 3591 Blue 5
4 PM Mon 61 61 E 3 7244 5748 2208 Blue 3
5 PM Mon 59 59 E 3 6602 3540 0 Blue 1
6 PM Mon 57 57 E 3 3567 3540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 55 55 E 3 2592 3540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 55 55 E 3 2592 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 55 55 E 3 2592 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 55 55 E 5 2592 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 54 54 E 5 2592 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 54 54 E 5 2592 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 54 54 E 5 2592 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 53 53 E 5 2592 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 53 53 E 5 2592 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 53 53 E 6 2592 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 52 52 E 6 2592 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 52 52 E 6 2592 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 51 51 E 6 2592 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 51 51 E 6 2592 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 50 50 E 6 2592 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 50 50 SW 5 2592 3540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 51 51 SW 5 2592 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 52 52 SW 5 2592 3540 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 52 52 SW 5 2592 3540 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 52 52 SW 5 2592 3540 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 51 51 SW 5 2592 3540 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 50 50 S 8 2592 3540 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 48 48 S 8 2592 3540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 47 47 S 8 2592 3540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 47 47 S 8 2592 3540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 47 47 S 8 2592 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 46 46 S 8 2592 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 46 46 NW 5 2592 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 46 46 NW 5 2592 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 46 46 NW 5 2592 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 45 45 NW 5 2592 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 45 45 NW 5 2592 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 45 45 NW 5 2592 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 45 45 NE 16 2592 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 45 45 NE 16 2592 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 45 45 NE 16 2592 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 46 46 NE 16 2592 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 46 46 NE 16 2592 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 48 48 NE 16 2592 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 49 50 NE 17 2592 3540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 51 53 NE 17 2592 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 53 55 NE 17 2592 3540 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 54 56 NE 17 2592 3540 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 54 55 NE 17 2592 3540 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 54 55 NE 17 2592 3540 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 54 54 N 12 2592 3540 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 52 52 N 12 2592 3540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 50 50 N 12 2592 3540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 49 49 N 12 2592 3540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 49 49 N 12 2592 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 49 49 N 12 2592 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 49 49 NE 18 2592 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 49 49 NE 18 2592 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 49 49 NE 18 2592 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 49 49 NE 18 2592 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 49 49 NE 18 2592 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 49 49 NE 18 2592 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 49 49 NE 20 2592 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 49 49 NE 20 2592 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 50 50 NE 20 2592 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 50 50 NE 20 2592 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 52 52 NE 20 2592 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 54 55 NE 20 2592 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 56 58 NE 9 5830 3540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 57 60 NE 9 7145 3540 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Thu 59 62 NE 9 7343 6506 2966 Blue 4
1 PM Thu 59 62 NE 9 7343 6506 2966 Blue 4
2 PM Thu 60 62 NE 9 7343 6506 2966 Blue 4
3 PM Thu 60 61 NE 9 7244 5748 2208 Blue 3
4 PM Thu 59 59 N 13 6602 3540 0 Blue 1
5 PM Thu 57 57 N 13 3567 3540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 55 55 N 13 2592 3540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 53 53 N 13 2592 3540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 52 52 N 13 2592 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 52 52 N 13 2592 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 52 52 NE 22 2592 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 52 52 NE 22 2592 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 51 51 NE 22 2592 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 51 51 NE 22 2592 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 50 50 NE 22 2592 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 50 50 NE 22 2592 3540 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst