Detailed Predictions for: Kagel
Launch Altitude (f): 3540
LZ Altitude (f): 1340
Sounding

Station:

 KNKX

Date/Time:

 1200Z 7 SEP 08

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Sun 68 68 S 3 2428 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 66 66 S 3 2428 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 66 66 S 3 2428 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 65 65 S 3 2428 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 66 66 S 3 2428 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 66 66 W 0 2428 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 67 67 W 0 2428 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 68 68 W 0 2428 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 75 75 W 0 2428 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 80 82 W 0 2669 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 84 88 W 0 4707 3691 151 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 86 91 SSW 10 8047 4686 1146 Blue 2
12 Noon Sun 87 94 SSW 10 14216 7877 4337 Blue 5
1 PM Sun 87 94 SSW 10 14216 7877 4337 Blue 5
2 PM Sun 88 95 SSW 10 15413 8831 5291 Blue 6
3 PM Sun 88 93 SSW 10 9888 6798 3258 Blue 4
4 PM Sun 87 90 SSW 10 6954 4357 817 Blue 1
5 PM Sun 84 86 SSW 6 4040 3540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 82 82 SSW 6 2669 3540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 78 78 SSW 6 2428 3540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 74 74 SSW 6 2428 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 72 72 SSW 6 2428 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 70 70 SSW 6 2428 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 69 69 S 6 2428 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 66 66 S 6 2428 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 64 64 S 6 2428 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 63 63 S 6 2428 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 62 62 S 6 2428 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 63 63 S 6 2428 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 63 63 SSE 7 2428 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 64 64 SSE 7 2428 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 65 65 SSE 7 2428 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 72 72 SSE 7 2428 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 76 78 SSE 7 2428 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 80 84 SSE 7 3361 3540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 81 86 S 11 4040 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 83 90 S 11 6954 4357 817 Blue 1
1 PM Mon 83 90 S 11 6954 4357 817 Blue 1
2 PM Mon 83 90 S 11 6954 4357 817 Blue 1
3 PM Mon 83 88 S 11 4707 3691 151 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 83 86 S 11 4040 3540 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 81 83 S 9 3016 3540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 78 78 S 9 2428 3540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 75 75 S 9 2428 3540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 72 72 S 9 2428 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 70 70 S 9 2428 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 68 68 S 9 2428 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 67 67 SSE 4 2428 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 65 65 SSE 4 2428 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 62 62 SSE 4 2428 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 61 61 SSE 4 2428 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 61 61 SSE 4 2428 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 61 61 SSE 4 2428 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 62 62 SSE 3 2428 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 62 62 SSE 3 2428 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 63 63 SSE 3 2428 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 68 68 SSE 3 2428 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 72 74 SSE 3 2428 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 74 78 SSE 3 2428 3540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 76 81 S 9 2428 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 77 83 S 9 3016 3540 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 77 83 S 9 3016 3540 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 77 83 S 9 3016 3540 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 77 82 S 9 2669 3540 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 77 80 S 9 2428 3540 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 75 76 S 8 2428 3540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 73 73 S 8 2428 3540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 70 70 S 8 2428 3540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 67 67 S 8 2428 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 66 66 S 8 2428 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 64 64 S 8 2428 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 63 63 SSE 4 2428 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 62 62 SSE 4 2428 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 60 60 SSE 4 2428 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 59 59 SSE 4 2428 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 59 59 SSE 4 2428 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 59 59 SSE 4 2428 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 60 60 SSE 3 2428 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 60 60 SSE 3 2428 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 61 61 SSE 3 2428 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 67 67 SSE 3 2428 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 71 73 SSE 3 2428 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 74 78 SSE 3 2428 3540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 75 80 SSW 11 2428 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 76 82 SSW 11 2669 3540 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 77 83 SSW 11 3016 3540 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 77 83 SSW 11 3016 3540 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 77 82 SSW 11 2669 3540 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 77 80 SSW 11 2428 3540 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 75 76 S 8 2428 3540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 72 72 S 8 2428 3540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 70 70 S 8 2428 3540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 67 67 S 8 2428 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 65 65 S 8 2428 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 64 64 S 8 2428 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 63 63 SE 4 2428 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 61 61 SE 4 2428 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 59 59 SE 4 2428 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 58 58 SE 4 2428 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 58 58 SE 4 2428 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 58 58 SE 4 2428 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 59 59 ESE 2 2428 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 60 60 ESE 2 2428 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 60 60 ESE 2 2428 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 66 66 ESE 2 2428 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 70 72 ESE 2 2428 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 73 77 ESE 2 2428 3540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 74 79 SSW 11 2428 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 75 81 SSW 11 2428 3540 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 76 82 SSW 11 2669 3540 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 76 82 SSW 11 2669 3540 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 76 81 SSW 11 2428 3540 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 76 79 SSW 11 2428 3540 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 74 75 S 7 2428 3540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 72 72 S 7 2428 3540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 70 70 S 7 2428 3540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 67 67 S 7 2428 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 66 66 S 7 2428 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 64 64 S 7 2428 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 63 63 NNE 5 2428 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 62 62 NNE 5 2428 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 60 60 NNE 5 2428 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 59 59 NNE 5 2428 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 59 59 NNE 5 2428 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 59 59 NNE 5 2428 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 60 60 NE 4 2428 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 61 61 NE 4 2428 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 62 62 NE 4 2428 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 69 69 NE 4 2428 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 74 76 NE 4 2428 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 78 82 NE 4 2669 3540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 79 83 SSW 13 3016 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 80 85 SSW 13 3702 3540 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 80 86 SSW 13 4040 3540 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 81 86 SSW 13 4040 3540 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 81 85 SSW 13 3702 3540 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 81 84 SSW 13 3361 3540 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the Weather Channel website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the Weather Channel estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the Weather Channel website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst