Detailed Predictions for: Kagel
Launch Altitude (f): 3540
LZ Altitude (f): 1340
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

18 SEP 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Wed 57 57 N 6 2546 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 57 57 N 6 2546 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 57 57 N 6 2546 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 60 60 N 7 2546 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 64 65 N 7 2904 3540 0 Blue 1
10 AM Wed 67 70 N 7 3429 3540 0 Blue 6
11 AM Wed 70 75 SW 8 4599 3807 267 Blue 11
12 Noon Wed 72 78 SW 8 5142 4583 1043 Blue 14
1 PM Wed 73 79 SW 8 5247 4840 1300 Blue 15
2 PM Wed 75 81 S 12 5456 5134 1594 Blue 17
3 PM Wed 75 79 S 12 5247 4840 1300 Blue 15
4 PM Wed 75 78 S 12 5142 4583 1043 Blue 14
5 PM Wed 73 74 S 9 4340 3566 26 Blue 10
6 PM Wed 71 71 S 9 3570 3540 0 Blue 7
7 PM Wed 68 68 S 9 3146 3540 0 Blue 4
8 PM Wed 64 64 S 8 2762 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 63 63 S 8 2546 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 62 62 S 8 2546 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 61 61 S 6 2546 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 60 60 S 6 2546 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 59 59 S 6 2546 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 58 58 S 6 2546 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 58 58 S 6 2546 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 58 58 S 6 2546 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 58 58 SW 6 2546 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 58 58 SW 6 2546 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 58 58 SW 6 2546 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 60 60 SW 6 2546 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 63 64 SW 6 2762 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 65 67 SW 6 3050 3540 0 Blue 3
11 AM Thu 67 72 SW 9 3817 3540 0 Blue 8
12 Noon Thu 69 75 SW 9 4599 3807 267 Blue 11
1 PM Thu 70 76 SW 9 4858 4067 527 Blue 12
2 PM Thu 71 77 SW 9 5037 4326 786 Blue 13
3 PM Thu 71 75 SW 9 4599 3807 267 Blue 11
4 PM Thu 71 74 SW 9 4340 3566 26 Blue 10
5 PM Thu 70 71 SW 9 3570 3540 0 Blue 7
6 PM Thu 68 68 SW 9 3146 3540 0 Blue 4
7 PM Thu 65 65 SW 9 2904 3540 0 Blue 1
8 PM Thu 62 62 SW 9 2546 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 60 60 SW 9 2546 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 59 59 SW 9 2546 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 59 59 N 10 2546 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 58 58 N 10 2546 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 57 57 N 10 2546 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 56 56 N 10 2546 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 56 56 N 10 2546 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 56 56 N 10 2546 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 56 56 NE 20 2546 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 56 56 NE 20 2546 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 56 56 NE 20 2546 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 60 60 NE 20 2546 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 65 66 NE 20 2972 3540 0 Blue 2
10 AM Fri 68 71 NE 20 3570 3540 0 Blue 7
11 AM Fri 72 77 SW 7 5037 4326 786 Blue 13
12 Noon Fri 75 81 SW 7 5456 5134 1594 Blue 17
1 PM Fri 77 83 SW 7 6077 5342 1802 Blue 19
2 PM Fri 78 84 SW 7 6620 5447 1907 Blue 20
3 PM Fri 79 83 SW 7 6077 5342 1802 Blue 19
4 PM Fri 79 82 SW 7 5739 5238 1698 Blue 18
5 PM Fri 77 78 W 8 5142 4583 1043 Blue 14
6 PM Fri 75 75 W 8 4599 3807 267 Blue 11
7 PM Fri 72 72 W 8 3817 3540 0 Blue 8
8 PM Fri 68 68 W 8 3146 3540 0 Blue 4
9 PM Fri 66 66 W 8 2972 3540 0 Blue 2
10 PM Fri 65 65 W 8 2904 3540 0 Blue 1
11 PM Fri 64 64 N 6 2762 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 63 63 N 6 2546 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 62 62 N 6 2546 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 61 61 N 6 2546 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 61 61 N 6 2546 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 61 61 N 6 2546 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 61 61 NE 6 2546 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 61 61 NE 6 2546 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 61 61 NE 6 2546 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 65 65 NE 6 2904 3540 0 Blue 1
9 AM Sat 70 71 NE 6 3570 3540 0 Blue 7
10 AM Sat 73 76 NE 6 4858 4067 527 Blue 12
11 AM Sat 77 82 SW 8 5739 5238 1698 Blue 18
12 Noon Sat 80 86 SW 8 7659 6032 2492 Blue 22
1 PM Sat 82 88 SW 8 8644 7073 3533 Blue 24
2 PM Sat 83 89 SW 8 8939 7579 4039 Blue 25
3 PM Sat 84 88 SW 8 8644 7073 3533 Blue 24
4 PM Sat 84 87 SW 8 8158 6553 3013 Blue 23
5 PM Sat 82 83 SW 8 6077 5342 1802 Blue 19
6 PM Sat 80 80 SW 8 5352 5029 1489 Blue 16
7 PM Sat 76 76 SW 8 4858 4067 527 Blue 12
8 PM Sat 72 72 SW 8 3817 3540 0 Blue 8
9 PM Sat 70 70 SW 8 3429 3540 0 Blue 6
10 PM Sat 69 69 SW 8 3287 3540 0 Blue 5
11 PM Sat 69 69 N 2 3287 3540 0 Blue 5
12 Midnight Sun 67 67 N 2 3050 3540 0 Blue 3
1 AM Sun 66 66 N 2 2972 3540 0 Blue 2
2 AM Sun 65 65 N 2 2904 3540 0 Blue 1
3 AM Sun 65 65 N 2 2904 3540 0 Blue 1
4 AM Sun 65 65 N 2 2904 3540 0 Blue 1
5 AM Sun 65 65 NE 3 2904 3540 0 Blue 1
6 AM Sun 65 65 NE 3 2904 3540 0 Blue 1
7 AM Sun 65 65 NE 3 2904 3540 0 Blue 1
8 AM Sun 68 68 NE 3 3146 3540 0 Blue 4
9 AM Sun 72 73 NE 3 4079 3540 0 Blue 9
10 AM Sun 75 77 NE 3 5037 4326 786 Blue 13
11 AM Sun 78 82 S 14 5739 5238 1698 Blue 18
12 Noon Sun 81 86 S 14 7659 6032 2492 Blue 22
1 PM Sun 82 87 S 14 8158 6553 3013 Blue 23
2 PM Sun 84 89 S 14 8939 7579 4039 Blue 25
3 PM Sun 84 88 S 14 8644 7073 3533 Blue 24
4 PM Sun 84 86 S 14 7659 6032 2492 Blue 22
5 PM Sun 82 83 S 13 6077 5342 1802 Blue 19
6 PM Sun 79 79 S 13 5247 4840 1300 Blue 15
7 PM Sun 76 76 S 13 4858 4067 527 Blue 12
8 PM Sun 71 71 S 13 3570 3540 0 Blue 7
9 PM Sun 69 69 S 13 3287 3540 0 Blue 5
10 PM Sun 68 68 S 13 3146 3540 0 Blue 4
11 PM Sun 67 67 S 8 3050 3540 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Mon 66 66 S 8 2972 3540 0 Blue 2
1 AM Mon 64 64 S 8 2762 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 63 63 S 8 2546 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 63 63 S 8 2546 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 63 63 S 8 2546 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 63 63 SE 9 2546 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 63 63 SE 9 2546 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 63 63 SE 9 2546 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 65 65 SE 9 2904 3540 0 Blue 1
9 AM Mon 68 69 SE 9 3287 3540 0 Blue 5
10 AM Mon 69 71 SE 9 3570 3540 0 Blue 7
11 AM Mon 72 76 SW 13 4858 4067 527 Blue 12
12 Noon Mon 73 78 SW 13 5142 4583 1043 Blue 14
1 PM Mon 74 79 SW 13 5247 4840 1300 Blue 15
2 PM Mon 75 80 SW 13 5352 5029 1489 Blue 16
3 PM Mon 75 79 SW 13 5247 4840 1300 Blue 15
4 PM Mon 75 77 SW 13 5037 4326 786 Blue 13
5 PM Mon 74 75 SW 13 4599 3807 267 Blue 11
6 PM Mon 72 72 SW 13 3817 3540 0 Blue 8
7 PM Mon 70 70 SW 13 3429 3540 0 Blue 6
8 PM Mon 67 67 SW 13 3050 3540 0 Blue 3
9 PM Mon 66 66 SW 13 2972 3540 0 Blue 2
10 PM Mon 65 65 SW 13 2904 3540 0 Blue 1
11 PM Mon 64 64 SE 6 2762 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 64 64 SE 6 2762 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 63 63 SE 6 2546 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 62 62 SE 6 2546 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 62 62 SE 6 2546 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 62 62 SE 6 2546 3540 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst