Detailed Predictions for: Kagel
Launch Altitude (f): 3540
LZ Altitude (f): 1340
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

21 JUL 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 63 63 SE 3 2569 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 63 63 SE 3 2569 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 66 66 SE 3 2569 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 70 71 S 2 2650 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 74 77 S 2 3656 3540 0 Blue 6
10 AM Sun 77 82 S 2 4351 3949 409 Blue 11
11 AM Sun 79 86 S 9 4880 4476 936 Blue 15
12 Noon Sun 82 90 S 9 5406 5002 1462 Blue 19
1 PM Sun 84 92 S 9 5673 5264 1724 Blue 21
2 PM Sun 85 93 S 13 5943 5394 1854 Blue 22
3 PM Sun 86 93 S 13 5943 5394 1854 Blue 22
4 PM Sun 86 91 S 13 5537 5133 1593 Blue 20
5 PM Sun 85 88 S 13 5143 4739 1199 Blue 17
6 PM Sun 84 85 S 13 4748 4344 804 Blue 14
7 PM Sun 82 82 S 13 4351 3949 409 Blue 11
8 PM Sun 78 78 S 7 3822 3540 0 Blue 7
9 PM Sun 75 75 S 7 3127 3540 0 Blue 4
10 PM Sun 73 73 S 7 2828 3540 0 Blue 2
11 PM Sun 71 71 S 5 2650 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 71 71 S 5 2650 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 69 69 S 5 2569 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 69 69 SE 5 2569 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 68 68 SE 5 2569 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 67 67 SE 5 2569 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 67 67 SE 2 2569 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 66 66 SE 2 2569 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 68 68 SE 2 2569 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 72 72 S 5 2762 3540 0 Blue 1
9 AM Mon 76 77 S 5 3656 3540 0 Blue 6
10 AM Mon 79 81 S 5 4219 3817 277 Blue 10
11 AM Mon 80 84 SW 7 4616 4212 672 Blue 13
12 Noon Mon 82 86 SW 7 4880 4476 936 Blue 15
1 PM Mon 85 90 SW 7 5406 5002 1462 Blue 19
2 PM Mon 86 90 S 12 5406 5002 1462 Blue 19
3 PM Mon 86 90 S 12 5406 5002 1462 Blue 19
4 PM Mon 86 89 S 12 5274 4871 1331 Blue 18
5 PM Mon 85 87 S 8 5012 4608 1068 Blue 16
6 PM Mon 84 85 S 8 4748 4344 804 Blue 14
7 PM Mon 82 82 S 8 4351 3949 409 Blue 11
8 PM Mon 79 79 S 8 3954 3540 0 Blue 8
9 PM Mon 76 76 S 8 3392 3540 0 Blue 5
10 PM Mon 75 75 S 8 3127 3540 0 Blue 4
11 PM Mon 73 73 S 2 2828 3540 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Tue 73 73 S 2 2828 3540 0 Blue 2
1 AM Tue 72 72 S 2 2762 3540 0 Blue 1
2 AM Tue 71 71 S 2 2650 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 70 70 S 2 2569 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 70 70 S 2 2569 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 70 70 SE 3 2569 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 69 69 SE 3 2569 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 71 71 SE 3 2650 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 75 76 SE 3 3392 3540 0 Blue 5
9 AM Tue 78 80 SE 3 4087 3647 107 Blue 9
10 AM Tue 81 85 SE 3 4748 4344 804 Blue 14
11 AM Tue 83 87 SW 9 5012 4608 1068 Blue 16
12 Noon Tue 84 88 SW 9 5143 4739 1199 Blue 17
1 PM Tue 87 92 SW 9 5673 5264 1724 Blue 21
2 PM Tue 88 92 SW 9 5673 5264 1724 Blue 21
3 PM Tue 88 92 SW 9 5673 5264 1724 Blue 21
4 PM Tue 88 91 SW 9 5537 5133 1593 Blue 20
5 PM Tue 87 88 SW 9 5143 4739 1199 Blue 17
6 PM Tue 86 86 SW 9 4880 4476 936 Blue 15
7 PM Tue 85 85 SW 9 4748 4344 804 Blue 14
8 PM Tue 82 82 SW 9 4351 3949 409 Blue 11
9 PM Tue 79 79 SW 9 3954 3540 0 Blue 8
10 PM Tue 78 78 SW 9 3822 3540 0 Blue 7
11 PM Tue 76 76 E 5 3392 3540 0 Blue 5
12 Midnight Wed 76 76 E 5 3392 3540 0 Blue 5
1 AM Wed 75 75 E 5 3127 3540 0 Blue 4
2 AM Wed 74 74 E 5 2893 3540 0 Blue 3
3 AM Wed 73 73 E 5 2828 3540 0 Blue 2
4 AM Wed 73 73 E 5 2828 3540 0 Blue 2
5 AM Wed 73 73 SE 3 2828 3540 0 Blue 2
6 AM Wed 72 72 SE 3 2762 3540 0 Blue 1
7 AM Wed 74 74 SE 3 2893 3540 0 Blue 3
8 AM Wed 78 78 SE 3 3822 3540 0 Blue 7
9 AM Wed 81 82 SE 3 4351 3949 409 Blue 11
10 AM Wed 83 85 SE 3 4748 4344 804 Blue 14
11 AM Wed 85 91 S 9 5537 5133 1593 Blue 20
12 Noon Wed 87 94 S 9 6211 5525 1985 Blue 23
1 PM Wed 89 96 S 9 6744 5915 2375 Blue 25
2 PM Wed 90 97 S 9 7008 6182 2642 Blue 26
3 PM Wed 90 96 S 9 6744 5915 2375 Blue 25
4 PM Wed 90 94 S 9 6211 5525 1985 Blue 23
5 PM Wed 89 91 SW 10 5537 5133 1593 Blue 20
6 PM Wed 88 89 SW 10 5274 4871 1331 Blue 18
7 PM Wed 86 86 SW 10 4880 4476 936 Blue 15
8 PM Wed 82 82 SW 10 4351 3949 409 Blue 11
9 PM Wed 79 79 SW 10 3954 3540 0 Blue 8
10 PM Wed 77 77 SW 10 3656 3540 0 Blue 6
11 PM Wed 75 75 S 7 3127 3540 0 Blue 4
12 Midnight Thu 75 75 S 7 3127 3540 0 Blue 4
1 AM Thu 73 73 S 7 2828 3540 0 Blue 2
2 AM Thu 73 73 S 7 2828 3540 0 Blue 2
3 AM Thu 72 72 S 7 2762 3540 0 Blue 1
4 AM Thu 71 71 S 7 2650 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 71 71 S 5 2650 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 70 70 S 5 2569 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 72 72 S 5 2762 3540 0 Blue 1
8 AM Thu 75 76 S 5 3392 3540 0 Blue 5
9 AM Thu 78 80 S 5 4087 3647 107 Blue 9
10 AM Thu 80 84 S 5 4616 4212 672 Blue 13
11 AM Thu 81 87 SW 10 5012 4608 1068 Blue 16
12 Noon Thu 83 90 SW 10 5406 5002 1462 Blue 19
1 PM Thu 85 92 SW 10 5673 5264 1724 Blue 21
2 PM Thu 86 93 SW 10 5943 5394 1854 Blue 22
3 PM Thu 86 92 SW 10 5673 5264 1724 Blue 21
4 PM Thu 86 90 SW 10 5406 5002 1462 Blue 19
5 PM Thu 85 87 SW 12 5012 4608 1068 Blue 16
6 PM Thu 84 85 SW 12 4748 4344 804 Blue 14
7 PM Thu 82 82 SW 12 4351 3949 409 Blue 11
8 PM Thu 79 79 SW 12 3954 3540 0 Blue 8
9 PM Thu 76 76 SW 12 3392 3540 0 Blue 5
10 PM Thu 74 74 SW 12 2893 3540 0 Blue 3
11 PM Thu 73 73 S 7 2828 3540 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Fri 72 72 S 7 2762 3540 0 Blue 1
1 AM Fri 71 71 S 7 2650 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 70 70 S 7 2569 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 69 69 S 7 2569 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 69 69 S 7 2569 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 69 69 S 6 2569 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 68 68 S 6 2569 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 70 70 S 6 2569 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 73 74 S 6 2893 3540 0 Blue 3
9 AM Fri 76 78 S 6 3822 3540 0 Blue 7
10 AM Fri 79 83 S 6 4484 4081 541 Blue 12
11 AM Fri 80 86 SW 12 4880 4476 936 Blue 15
12 Noon Fri 82 89 SW 12 5274 4871 1331 Blue 18
1 PM Fri 84 91 SW 12 5537 5133 1593 Blue 20
2 PM Fri 85 92 SW 12 5673 5264 1724 Blue 21
3 PM Fri 85 91 SW 12 5537 5133 1593 Blue 20
4 PM Fri 85 89 SW 12 5274 4871 1331 Blue 18
5 PM Fri 84 86 SW 12 4880 4476 936 Blue 15
6 PM Fri 83 84 SW 12 4616 4212 672 Blue 13
7 PM Fri 81 81 SW 12 4219 3817 277 Blue 10
8 PM Fri 78 78 SW 12 3822 3540 0 Blue 7
9 PM Fri 75 75 SW 12 3127 3540 0 Blue 4
10 PM Fri 73 73 SW 12 2828 3540 0 Blue 2
11 PM Fri 72 72 S 7 2762 3540 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Sat 71 71 S 7 2650 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 70 70 S 7 2569 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 69 69 S 7 2569 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 68 68 S 7 2569 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 68 68 S 7 2569 3540 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst