Detailed Predictions for: Kagel
Launch Altitude (f): 3540
LZ Altitude (f): 1340
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

25 MAR 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Mon 46 46 NE 7 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 46 46 NE 7 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 46 46 NE 7 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 47 47 NE 7 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 52 53 NE 7 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 56 59 NE 7 2773 3540 0 Blue 1
11 AM Mon 59 63 SW 5 3295 3540 0 Blue 5
12 Noon Mon 59 64 SW 5 3475 3540 0 Blue 6
1 PM Mon 64 70 SW 5 5905 4250 710 Blue 12
2 PM Mon 65 70 SW 9 5905 4250 710 Blue 12
3 PM Mon 64 68 SW 9 4554 3651 111 Blue 10
4 PM Mon 65 67 SW 9 4278 3540 0 Blue 9
5 PM Mon 65 66 SW 8 3838 3540 0 Blue 8
6 PM Mon 62 62 SW 8 3190 3540 0 Blue 4
7 PM Mon 59 59 SW 8 2773 3540 0 Blue 1
8 PM Mon 55 55 SW 6 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 54 54 SW 6 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 53 53 SW 6 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 53 53 SE 2 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 52 52 SE 2 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 51 51 SE 2 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 50 50 SE 2 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 50 50 SE 2 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 49 49 SE 2 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 49 49 E 3 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 49 49 E 3 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 49 49 E 3 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 50 50 SE 3 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 53 54 SE 3 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 56 58 SE 3 2644 3540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 58 60 SW 10 2946 3540 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Tue 58 61 SW 10 3084 3540 0 Blue 3
1 PM Tue 61 64 SW 10 3475 3540 0 Blue 6
2 PM Tue 62 65 SW 12 3657 3540 0 Blue 7
3 PM Tue 61 63 SW 12 3295 3540 0 Blue 5
4 PM Tue 62 63 SW 12 3295 3540 0 Blue 5
5 PM Tue 62 62 SW 8 3190 3540 0 Blue 4
6 PM Tue 59 59 SW 8 2773 3540 0 Blue 1
7 PM Tue 56 56 SW 8 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 52 52 SW 8 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 51 51 SW 8 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 50 50 SW 8 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 50 50 S 7 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 49 49 S 7 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 48 48 S 7 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 47 47 S 7 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 47 47 S 7 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 46 46 S 7 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 46 46 S 7 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 46 46 S 7 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 46 46 S 7 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 46 46 S 7 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 48 48 S 7 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 50 51 S 7 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 51 52 SW 17 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 51 53 SW 17 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 53 55 SW 17 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 53 55 SW 17 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 52 53 SW 17 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 53 54 SW 17 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 53 53 SW 15 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 51 51 SW 15 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 49 49 SW 15 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 46 46 SW 15 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 45 45 SW 15 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 45 45 SW 15 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 45 45 NW 9 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 44 44 NW 9 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 43 43 NW 9 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 43 43 NW 9 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 42 42 NW 9 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 42 42 NW 9 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 42 42 N 12 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 42 42 N 12 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 42 42 N 12 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 43 43 N 12 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 47 48 N 12 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 50 52 N 12 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 53 56 W 14 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 52 56 W 14 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 56 60 W 14 2946 3540 0 Blue 2
2 PM Thu 57 60 W 14 2946 3540 0 Blue 2
3 PM Thu 56 59 W 14 2773 3540 0 Blue 1
4 PM Thu 57 59 W 14 2773 3540 0 Blue 1
5 PM Thu 57 58 W 14 2644 3540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 55 55 W 14 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 52 52 W 14 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 49 49 W 14 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 48 48 W 14 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 47 47 W 14 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 47 47 N 15 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 47 47 N 15 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 46 46 N 15 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 45 45 N 15 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 45 45 N 15 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 44 44 N 15 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 44 44 N 15 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 44 44 N 15 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 44 44 N 15 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 45 45 N 15 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 49 50 N 15 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 52 54 N 15 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 55 59 N 14 2773 3540 0 Blue 1
12 Noon Fri 54 59 N 14 2773 3540 0 Blue 1
1 PM Fri 58 63 N 14 3295 3540 0 Blue 5
2 PM Fri 59 64 N 14 3475 3540 0 Blue 6
3 PM Fri 58 62 N 14 3190 3540 0 Blue 4
4 PM Fri 59 61 N 14 3084 3540 0 Blue 3
5 PM Fri 59 60 NW 13 2946 3540 0 Blue 2
6 PM Fri 56 56 NW 13 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 54 54 NW 13 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 50 50 NW 13 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 49 49 NW 13 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 48 48 NW 13 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 48 48 N 15 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 48 48 N 15 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 47 47 N 15 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 46 46 N 15 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 46 46 N 15 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 45 45 N 15 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 45 45 N 15 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 45 45 N 15 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 45 45 N 15 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 46 46 N 15 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 51 52 N 15 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 56 59 N 15 2773 3540 0 Blue 1
11 AM Sat 59 63 N 16 3295 3540 0 Blue 5
12 Noon Sat 59 64 N 16 3475 3540 0 Blue 6
1 PM Sat 64 69 N 16 4765 3831 291 Blue 11
2 PM Sat 65 70 N 16 5905 4250 710 Blue 12
3 PM Sat 64 68 N 16 4554 3651 111 Blue 10
4 PM Sat 65 67 N 16 4278 3540 0 Blue 9
5 PM Sat 64 65 N 13 3657 3540 0 Blue 7
6 PM Sat 61 61 N 13 3084 3540 0 Blue 3
7 PM Sat 58 58 N 13 2644 3540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 53 53 N 13 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 51 51 N 13 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 50 50 N 13 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 50 50 N 14 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 49 49 N 14 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 47 47 N 14 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 46 46 N 14 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 46 46 N 14 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 45 45 N 14 2536 3540 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst