Detailed Predictions for: Kagel
Launch Altitude (f): 3540
LZ Altitude (f): 1340
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

17 NOV 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Sat 53 53 SE 5 2618 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 53 53 SE 5 2618 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 51 51 SE 5 2618 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 52 52 SE 5 2618 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 55 55 SE 5 2618 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 58 59 SE 5 2628 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 61 62 S 5 3270 3540 0 Blue 2
11 AM Sat 63 65 S 5 4127 3540 0 Blue 5
12 Noon Sat 65 67 S 5 4938 3837 297 Blue 7
1 PM Sat 66 68 SW 9 5406 4113 573 Blue 8
2 PM Sat 66 67 SW 9 4938 3837 297 Blue 7
3 PM Sat 65 65 SW 9 4127 3540 0 Blue 5
4 PM Sat 64 64 S 10 3848 3540 0 Blue 4
5 PM Sat 61 61 S 10 3031 3540 0 Blue 1
6 PM Sat 57 57 S 10 2618 3540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 56 56 S 6 2618 3540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 57 57 S 6 2618 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 56 56 S 6 2618 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 57 57 SE 5 2618 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 55 55 SE 5 2618 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 55 55 SE 5 2618 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 53 53 NE 9 2618 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 53 53 NE 9 2618 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 53 53 NE 9 2618 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 53 53 NE 9 2618 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 52 52 NE 9 2618 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 51 51 NE 9 2618 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 52 52 NE 12 2618 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 55 55 NE 12 2618 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 58 58 NE 12 2618 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 61 62 NE 3 3270 3540 0 Blue 2
11 AM Sun 63 64 NE 3 3848 3540 0 Blue 4
12 Noon Sun 65 66 NE 3 4489 3582 42 Blue 6
1 PM Sun 66 67 N 2 4938 3837 297 Blue 7
2 PM Sun 66 67 N 2 4938 3837 297 Blue 7
3 PM Sun 65 65 N 2 4127 3540 0 Blue 5
4 PM Sun 64 64 NE 9 3848 3540 0 Blue 4
5 PM Sun 60 60 NE 9 2821 3540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 57 57 NE 9 2618 3540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 56 56 NE 9 2618 3540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 56 56 NE 9 2618 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 56 56 NE 9 2618 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 56 56 NE 13 2618 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 55 55 NE 13 2618 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 54 54 NE 13 2618 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 52 52 NE 13 2618 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 52 52 NE 13 2618 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 52 52 NE 13 2618 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 52 52 NE 20 2618 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 52 52 NE 20 2618 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 50 50 NE 20 2618 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 51 51 NE 20 2618 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 54 54 NE 20 2618 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 57 57 NE 20 2618 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 59 60 NE 14 2821 3540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 61 62 NE 14 3270 3540 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Mon 64 65 NE 14 4127 3540 0 Blue 5
1 PM Mon 64 65 NE 14 4127 3540 0 Blue 5
2 PM Mon 64 65 NE 14 4127 3540 0 Blue 5
3 PM Mon 63 63 NE 14 3589 3540 0 Blue 3
4 PM Mon 62 62 NE 7 3270 3540 0 Blue 2
5 PM Mon 59 59 NE 7 2628 3540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 57 57 NE 7 2618 3540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 56 56 NE 7 2618 3540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 56 56 NE 7 2618 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 56 56 NE 7 2618 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 56 56 NE 8 2618 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 55 55 NE 8 2618 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 54 54 NE 8 2618 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 53 53 NE 8 2618 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 53 53 NE 8 2618 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 53 53 NE 8 2618 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 53 53 NE 7 2618 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 52 52 NE 7 2618 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 51 51 NE 7 2618 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 52 52 NE 7 2618 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 54 54 NE 7 2618 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 57 57 NE 7 2618 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 59 60 S 7 2821 3540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 61 63 S 7 3589 3540 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Tue 63 65 S 7 4127 3540 0 Blue 5
1 PM Tue 63 65 S 7 4127 3540 0 Blue 5
2 PM Tue 63 64 S 7 3848 3540 0 Blue 4
3 PM Tue 62 62 S 7 3270 3540 0 Blue 2
4 PM Tue 61 61 S 7 3031 3540 0 Blue 1
5 PM Tue 58 58 S 7 2618 3540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 55 55 S 7 2618 3540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 54 54 S 7 2618 3540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 54 54 S 7 2618 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 54 54 S 7 2618 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 54 54 SE 7 2618 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 53 53 SE 7 2618 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 52 52 SE 7 2618 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 51 51 SE 7 2618 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 51 51 SE 7 2618 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 51 51 SE 7 2618 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 51 51 E 8 2618 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 50 50 E 8 2618 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 49 49 E 8 2618 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 50 50 E 8 2618 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 52 52 E 8 2618 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 54 54 E 8 2618 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 56 56 S 10 2618 3540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 57 57 S 10 2618 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 59 59 S 10 2628 3540 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 59 59 S 10 2628 3540 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 59 59 S 10 2628 3540 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 58 58 S 10 2618 3540 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 58 58 S 12 2618 3540 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 56 56 S 12 2618 3540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 54 54 S 12 2618 3540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 53 53 S 12 2618 3540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 53 53 S 12 2618 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 53 53 S 12 2618 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 53 53 S 12 2618 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 53 53 S 12 2618 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 52 52 S 12 2618 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 51 51 S 12 2618 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 51 51 S 12 2618 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 51 51 S 12 2618 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 51 51 SE 7 2618 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 51 51 SE 7 2618 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 50 50 SE 7 2618 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 51 51 SE 7 2618 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 53 53 SE 7 2618 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 54 54 SE 7 2618 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 56 57 SW 9 2618 3540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 57 58 SW 9 2618 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 59 60 SW 9 2821 3540 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 59 60 SW 9 2821 3540 0 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 59 59 SW 9 2628 3540 0 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 58 58 SW 9 2618 3540 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 58 58 SW 9 2618 3540 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 56 56 SW 9 2618 3540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 54 54 SW 9 2618 3540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 53 53 SW 9 2618 3540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 53 53 SW 9 2618 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 53 53 SW 9 2618 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 53 53 W 8 2618 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 53 53 W 8 2618 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 52 52 W 8 2618 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 51 51 W 8 2618 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 51 51 W 8 2618 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 51 51 W 8 2618 3540 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst