Detailed Predictions for: Kagel
Launch Altitude (f): 3540
LZ Altitude (f): 1340
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

21 JAN 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Sun 38 38 NE 13 2375 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 38 38 NE 13 2375 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 38 38 NE 13 2375 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 39 39 NE 12 2375 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 41 41 NE 12 2375 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 44 45 NE 12 2375 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 47 48 NE 7 4187 3540 0 Blue 2
11 AM Sun 49 51 NE 7 5593 4171 631 Blue 5
12 Noon Sun 51 53 NE 7 5848 5406 1866 Blue 7
1 PM Sun 52 54 N 3 5994 5580 2040 Blue 8
2 PM Sun 53 54 N 3 5994 5580 2040 Blue 8
3 PM Sun 53 53 N 3 5848 5406 1866 Blue 7
4 PM Sun 53 53 NW 5 5848 5406 1866 Blue 7
5 PM Sun 52 52 NW 5 5721 5012 1472 Blue 6
6 PM Sun 51 51 NW 5 5593 4171 631 Blue 5
7 PM Sun 50 50 N 9 5462 3862 322 Blue 4
8 PM Sun 49 49 N 9 5034 3551 11 Blue 3
9 PM Sun 48 48 N 9 4187 3540 0 Blue 2
10 PM Sun 47 47 NE 12 3875 3540 0 Blue 1
11 PM Sun 46 46 NE 12 3561 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 44 44 NE 12 2375 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 44 44 NE 13 2375 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 44 44 NE 13 2375 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 44 44 NE 13 2375 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 44 44 NE 13 2375 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 43 43 NE 13 2375 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 42 42 NE 13 2375 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 42 42 NE 12 2375 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 44 44 NE 12 2375 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 46 46 NE 12 3561 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 50 51 NE 12 5593 4171 631 Blue 5
11 AM Mon 53 55 NE 12 7230 5708 2168 Blue 9
12 Noon Mon 55 57 NE 12 7665 5962 2422 Blue 11
1 PM Mon 57 59 N 10 8078 7424 3884 Blue 13
2 PM Mon 58 59 N 10 8078 7424 3884 Blue 13
3 PM Mon 59 59 N 10 8078 7424 3884 Blue 13
4 PM Mon 59 59 N 12 8078 7424 3884 Blue 13
5 PM Mon 58 58 N 12 7872 7060 3520 Blue 12
6 PM Mon 56 56 N 12 7458 5835 2295 Blue 10
7 PM Mon 54 54 N 12 5994 5580 2040 Blue 8
8 PM Mon 52 52 N 12 5721 5012 1472 Blue 6
9 PM Mon 50 50 N 12 5462 3862 322 Blue 4
10 PM Mon 49 49 NE 14 5034 3551 11 Blue 3
11 PM Mon 49 49 NE 14 5034 3551 11 Blue 3
12 Midnight Tue 49 49 NE 14 5034 3551 11 Blue 3
1 AM Tue 49 49 NE 14 5034 3551 11 Blue 3
2 AM Tue 49 49 NE 14 5034 3551 11 Blue 3
3 AM Tue 48 48 NE 14 4187 3540 0 Blue 2
4 AM Tue 48 48 NE 16 4187 3540 0 Blue 2
5 AM Tue 47 47 NE 16 3875 3540 0 Blue 1
6 AM Tue 47 47 NE 16 3875 3540 0 Blue 1
7 AM Tue 48 48 NE 16 4187 3540 0 Blue 2
8 AM Tue 49 49 NE 16 5034 3551 11 Blue 3
9 AM Tue 51 52 NE 16 5721 5012 1472 Blue 6
10 AM Tue 54 55 NE 13 7230 5708 2168 Blue 9
11 AM Tue 57 59 NE 13 8078 7424 3884 Blue 13
12 Noon Tue 60 62 NE 13 8645 8041 4501 Blue 16
1 PM Tue 62 64 NE 13 9605 8301 4761 Blue 18
2 PM Tue 64 66 NE 13 10293 9026 5486 Blue 20
3 PM Tue 64 65 NE 13 10067 8545 5005 Blue 19
4 PM Tue 63 63 NE 13 9131 8184 4644 Blue 17
5 PM Tue 62 62 NE 13 8645 8041 4501 Blue 16
6 PM Tue 60 60 NE 13 8206 7630 4090 Blue 14
7 PM Tue 58 58 NE 13 7872 7060 3520 Blue 12
8 PM Tue 56 56 NE 13 7458 5835 2295 Blue 10
9 PM Tue 56 56 NE 13 7458 5835 2295 Blue 10
10 PM Tue 55 55 NE 13 7230 5708 2168 Blue 9
11 PM Tue 54 54 NE 13 5994 5580 2040 Blue 8
12 Midnight Wed 53 53 NE 13 5848 5406 1866 Blue 7
1 AM Wed 52 52 NE 13 5721 5012 1472 Blue 6
2 AM Wed 51 51 NE 13 5593 4171 631 Blue 5
3 AM Wed 50 50 NE 13 5462 3862 322 Blue 4
4 AM Wed 49 49 NE 13 5034 3551 11 Blue 3
5 AM Wed 47 47 NE 13 3875 3540 0 Blue 1
6 AM Wed 46 46 NE 13 3561 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 46 46 NE 13 3561 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 49 49 NE 13 5034 3551 11 Blue 3
9 AM Wed 53 53 NE 13 5848 5406 1866 Blue 7
10 AM Wed 58 59 SW 6 8078 7424 3884 Blue 13
11 AM Wed 61 63 SW 6 9131 8184 4644 Blue 17
12 Noon Wed 63 65 SW 6 10067 8545 5005 Blue 19
1 PM Wed 65 67 SW 6 10435 9495 5955 Blue 21
2 PM Wed 65 66 SW 6 10293 9026 5486 Blue 20
3 PM Wed 65 66 SW 6 10293 9026 5486 Blue 20
4 PM Wed 64 64 SW 7 9605 8301 4761 Blue 18
5 PM Wed 62 62 SW 7 8645 8041 4501 Blue 16
6 PM Wed 61 61 SW 7 8324 7836 4296 Blue 15
7 PM Wed 59 59 SW 7 8078 7424 3884 Blue 13
8 PM Wed 57 57 SW 7 7665 5962 2422 Blue 11
9 PM Wed 55 55 SW 7 7230 5708 2168 Blue 9
10 PM Wed 53 53 SW 10 5848 5406 1866 Blue 7
11 PM Wed 51 51 SW 10 5593 4171 631 Blue 5
12 Midnight Thu 50 50 SW 10 5462 3862 322 Blue 4
1 AM Thu 49 49 SW 10 5034 3551 11 Blue 3
2 AM Thu 48 48 SW 10 4187 3540 0 Blue 2
3 AM Thu 47 47 SW 10 3875 3540 0 Blue 1
4 AM Thu 46 46 SW 15 3561 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 45 45 SW 15 2375 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 44 44 SW 15 2375 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 44 44 SW 15 2375 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 43 43 SW 15 2375 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 43 43 SW 15 2375 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 43 43 W 21 2375 3540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 45 45 W 21 2375 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 47 48 W 21 4187 3540 0 Blue 2
1 PM Thu 48 48 W 21 4187 3540 0 Blue 2
2 PM Thu 50 50 W 21 5462 3862 322 Blue 4
3 PM Thu 51 51 W 21 5593 4171 631 Blue 5
4 PM Thu 51 51 W 18 5593 4171 631 Blue 5
5 PM Thu 50 50 W 18 5462 3862 322 Blue 4
6 PM Thu 49 49 W 18 5034 3551 11 Blue 3
7 PM Thu 47 47 W 18 3875 3540 0 Blue 1
8 PM Thu 45 45 W 18 2375 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 43 43 W 18 2375 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 41 41 N 14 2375 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 40 40 N 14 2375 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 39 39 N 14 2375 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 38 38 N 14 2375 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 38 38 N 14 2375 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 38 38 N 14 2375 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 38 38 N 10 2375 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 39 39 N 10 2375 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 39 39 N 10 2375 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 40 40 N 10 2375 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 41 41 N 10 2375 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 43 43 N 10 2375 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 45 46 N 10 3561 3540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 47 48 N 10 4187 3540 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Fri 49 51 N 10 5593 4171 631 Blue 5
1 PM Fri 52 53 N 10 5848 5406 1866 Blue 7
2 PM Fri 54 55 N 10 7230 5708 2168 Blue 9
3 PM Fri 55 55 N 10 7230 5708 2168 Blue 9
4 PM Fri 56 56 N 13 7458 5835 2295 Blue 10
5 PM Fri 56 56 N 13 7458 5835 2295 Blue 10
6 PM Fri 54 54 N 13 5994 5580 2040 Blue 8
7 PM Fri 51 51 N 13 5593 4171 631 Blue 5
8 PM Fri 48 48 N 13 4187 3540 0 Blue 2
9 PM Fri 46 46 N 13 3561 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 43 43 N 18 2375 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 42 42 N 18 2375 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 41 41 N 18 2375 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 41 41 N 18 2375 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 41 41 N 18 2375 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 42 42 N 18 2375 3540 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst