Detailed Predictions for: Kagel
Launch Altitude (f): 3540
LZ Altitude (f): 1340
Sounding

Station:

 KNKX

Date/Time:

 19 MAR 2010

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
5 AM Fri 53 53 NE 24 3065 3540 0 Blue 7
6 AM Fri 51 51 NE 24 2956 3540 0 Blue 5
7 AM Fri 51 51 NE 24 2956 3540 0 Blue 5
8 AM Fri 53 53 NE 22 3065 3540 0 Blue 7
9 AM Fri 56 57 NE 22 3345 3540 0 Blue 11
10 AM Fri 61 64 NE 22 5631 4718 1178 Blue 18
11 AM Fri 64 68 NE 17 7839 5890 2350 White 22
12 Noon Fri 66 71 NE 17 8478 8478 4938 White 25
1 PM Fri 68 74 NE 17 9114 9114 5574 White 28
2 PM Fri 69 74 NE 10 9114 9114 5574 White 28
3 PM Fri 69 73 NE 10 8903 8903 5363 White 27
4 PM Fri 68 70 NE 10 8265 8265 4725 White 24
5 PM Fri 66 67 NW 5 7625 5603 2063 White 21
6 PM Fri 62 62 NW 5 5046 4035 495 Blue 16
7 PM Fri 58 58 NW 5 3700 3540 0 Blue 12
8 PM Fri 55 55 NW 5 3173 3540 0 Blue 9
9 PM Fri 55 55 NW 5 3173 3540 0 Blue 9
10 PM Fri 54 54 NW 5 3119 3540 0 Blue 8
11 PM Fri 54 54 N 5 3119 3540 0 Blue 8
12 Midnight Sat 54 54 N 5 3119 3540 0 Blue 8
1 AM Sat 49 49 N 5 2846 3540 0 Blue 3
2 AM Sat 49 49 N 6 2846 3540 0 Blue 3
3 AM Sat 50 50 N 6 2902 3540 0 Blue 4
4 AM Sat 50 50 N 6 2902 3540 0 Blue 4
5 AM Sat 50 50 N 6 2902 3540 0 Blue 4
6 AM Sat 49 49 N 6 2846 3540 0 Blue 3
7 AM Sat 49 49 N 6 2846 3540 0 Blue 3
8 AM Sat 51 51 NE 8 2956 3540 0 Blue 5
9 AM Sat 55 56 NE 8 3228 3540 0 Blue 10
10 AM Sat 62 65 NE 8 5921 5023 1483 Blue 19
11 AM Sat 65 69 SW 8 8053 6175 2635 White 23
12 Noon Sat 68 73 SW 8 8903 8903 5363 White 27
1 PM Sat 69 75 SW 8 9324 9324 5784 White 29
2 PM Sat 71 76 SW 2 9535 9535 5995 White 30
3 PM Sat 71 75 SW 2 9324 9324 5784 White 29
4 PM Sat 70 72 SW 2 8691 8691 5151 White 26
5 PM Sat 67 68 SW 3 7839 5890 2350 White 22
6 PM Sat 63 63 SW 3 5340 4378 838 Blue 17
7 PM Sat 57 57 SW 3 3345 3540 0 Blue 11
8 PM Sat 55 55 SW 3 3173 3540 0 Blue 9
9 PM Sat 54 54 SW 3 3119 3540 0 Blue 8
10 PM Sat 53 53 SW 3 3065 3540 0 Blue 7
11 PM Sat 53 53 N 1 3065 3540 0 Blue 7
12 Midnight Sun 53 53 N 1 3065 3540 0 Blue 7
1 AM Sun 47 47 N 1 2705 3540 0 Blue 1
2 AM Sun 47 47 N 1 2705 3540 0 Blue 1
3 AM Sun 48 48 N 1 2776 3540 0 Blue 2
4 AM Sun 48 48 N 1 2776 3540 0 Blue 2
5 AM Sun 48 48 NE 4 2776 3540 0 Blue 2
6 AM Sun 47 47 NE 4 2705 3540 0 Blue 1
7 AM Sun 47 47 NE 4 2705 3540 0 Blue 1
8 AM Sun 49 49 NE 4 2846 3540 0 Blue 3
9 AM Sun 54 55 NE 4 3173 3540 0 Blue 9
10 AM Sun 61 64 NE 4 5631 4718 1178 Blue 18
11 AM Sun 65 69 SW 4 8053 6175 2635 White 23
12 Noon Sun 67 72 SW 4 8691 8691 5151 White 26
1 PM Sun 69 75 SW 4 9324 9324 5784 White 29
2 PM Sun 71 76 SW 4 9535 9535 5995 White 30
3 PM Sun 71 75 SW 4 9324 9324 5784 White 29
4 PM Sun 70 72 SW 4 8691 8691 5151 White 26
5 PM Sun 67 68 SW 5 7839 5890 2350 White 22
6 PM Sun 63 63 SW 5 5340 4378 838 Blue 17
7 PM Sun 58 58 SW 5 3700 3540 0 Blue 12
8 PM Sun 55 55 SW 5 3173 3540 0 Blue 9
9 PM Sun 55 55 SW 5 3173 3540 0 Blue 9
10 PM Sun 54 54 SW 5 3119 3540 0 Blue 8
11 PM Sun 54 54 N 2 3119 3540 0 Blue 8
12 Midnight Mon 54 54 N 2 3119 3540 0 Blue 8
1 AM Mon 48 48 N 2 2776 3540 0 Blue 2
2 AM Mon 48 48 N 2 2776 3540 0 Blue 2
3 AM Mon 48 48 N 2 2776 3540 0 Blue 2
4 AM Mon 48 48 N 2 2776 3540 0 Blue 2
5 AM Mon 49 49 N 2 2846 3540 0 Blue 3
6 AM Mon 48 48 N 2 2776 3540 0 Blue 2
7 AM Mon 48 48 N 2 2776 3540 0 Blue 2
8 AM Mon 50 50 N 2 2902 3540 0 Blue 4
9 AM Mon 53 54 N 2 3119 3540 0 Blue 8
10 AM Mon 58 60 N 2 4398 3540 0 Blue 14
11 AM Mon 61 64 S 7 5631 4718 1178 Blue 18
12 Noon Mon 64 67 S 7 7625 5603 2063 White 21
1 PM Mon 65 69 S 7 8053 6175 2635 White 23
2 PM Mon 66 69 S 7 8053 6175 2635 White 23
3 PM Mon 66 68 S 7 7839 5890 2350 White 22
4 PM Mon 65 66 S 7 7411 5314 1774 White 20
5 PM Mon 62 62 S 8 5046 4035 495 Blue 16
6 PM Mon 59 59 S 8 4051 3540 0 Blue 13
7 PM Mon 53 53 S 8 3065 3540 0 Blue 7
8 PM Mon 50 50 S 8 2902 3540 0 Blue 4
9 PM Mon 50 50 S 8 2902 3540 0 Blue 4
10 PM Mon 49 49 S 8 2846 3540 0 Blue 3
11 PM Mon 49 49 W 9 2846 3540 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Tue 49 49 W 9 2846 3540 0 Blue 3
1 AM Tue 43 43 W 9 2500 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 43 43 W 9 2500 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 44 44 W 9 2500 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 43 43 W 9 2500 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 44 44 NW 7 2500 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 43 43 NW 7 2500 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 43 43 NW 7 2500 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 45 45 NW 7 2503 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 49 50 NW 7 2902 3540 0 Blue 4
10 AM Tue 55 57 NW 7 3345 3540 0 Blue 11
11 AM Tue 59 62 N 12 5046 4035 495 Blue 16
12 Noon Tue 61 65 N 12 5921 5023 1483 Blue 19
1 PM Tue 63 67 N 12 7625 5603 2063 White 21
2 PM Tue 64 67 N 12 7625 5603 2063 White 21
3 PM Tue 64 67 N 12 7625 5603 2063 White 21
4 PM Tue 63 65 N 12 5921 5023 1483 Blue 19
5 PM Tue 61 61 N 12 4741 3688 148 Blue 15
6 PM Tue 57 57 N 12 3345 3540 0 Blue 11
7 PM Tue 52 52 N 12 3010 3540 0 Blue 6
8 PM Tue 49 49 N 12 2846 3540 0 Blue 3
9 PM Tue 49 49 N 12 2846 3540 0 Blue 3
10 PM Tue 47 47 N 12 2705 3540 0 Blue 1
11 PM Tue 48 48 NE 12 2776 3540 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Wed 48 48 NE 12 2776 3540 0 Blue 2
1 AM Wed 42 42 NE 12 2500 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 42 42 NE 12 2500 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 43 43 NE 12 2500 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 42 42 NE 12 2500 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 43 43 NE 17 2500 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 42 42 NE 17 2500 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 42 42 NE 17 2500 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 44 44 NE 17 2500 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 48 49 NE 17 2846 3540 0 Blue 3
10 AM Wed 55 57 NE 17 3345 3540 0 Blue 11
11 AM Wed 58 62 NE 16 5046 4035 495 Blue 16
12 Noon Wed 61 66 NE 16 7411 5314 1774 White 20
1 PM Wed 63 68 NE 16 7839 5890 2350 White 22
2 PM Wed 64 69 NE 16 8053 6175 2635 White 23
3 PM Wed 64 68 NE 16 7839 5890 2350 White 22
4 PM Wed 63 65 NE 16 5921 5023 1483 Blue 19
5 PM Wed 61 62 NE 4 5046 4035 495 Blue 16
6 PM Wed 58 58 NE 4 3700 3540 0 Blue 12
7 PM Wed 54 54 NE 4 3119 3540 0 Blue 8
8 PM Wed 52 52 NE 4 3010 3540 0 Blue 6
9 PM Wed 51 51 NE 4 2956 3540 0 Blue 5
10 PM Wed 50 50 NE 4 2902 3540 0 Blue 4
11 PM Wed 51 51 E 5 2956 3540 0 Blue 5
12 Midnight Thu 51 51 E 5 2956 3540 0 Blue 5
1 AM Thu 46 46 E 5 2627 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 46 46 E 5 2627 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 46 46 E 5 2627 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 46 46 E 5 2627 3540 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst