Detailed Predictions for: Kagel
Launch Altitude (f): 3540
LZ Altitude (f): 1340
Sounding

Station:

 KNKX

Date/Time:

 3 SEP 2010

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
5 AM Fri 70 70 N 2 2572 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 70 70 N 2 2572 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 70 70 N 2 2572 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 74 74 N 5 2572 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 79 81 N 5 2572 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 83 87 N 5 3560 3540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 87 93 S 10 5347 4019 479 Blue 6
12 Noon Fri 89 96 S 10 6974 5312 1772 Blue 9
1 PM Fri 91 98 S 10 13288 6249 2709 Blue 11
2 PM Fri 91 98 SW 15 13288 6249 2709 Blue 11
3 PM Fri 93 99 SW 15 13473 6890 3350 Blue 12
4 PM Fri 92 96 SW 15 6974 5312 1772 Blue 9
5 PM Fri 90 92 SW 15 4921 3815 275 Blue 5
6 PM Fri 87 87 SW 15 3560 3540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 84 84 SW 15 2604 3540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 79 79 SW 3 2572 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 77 77 SW 3 2572 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 77 77 SW 3 2572 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 77 77 N 5 2572 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 77 77 N 5 2572 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 77 77 N 5 2572 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 76 76 N 7 2572 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 76 76 N 7 2572 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 76 76 N 7 2572 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 73 73 N 8 2572 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 70 70 N 8 2572 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 70 70 N 8 2572 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 74 74 NE 10 2572 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 79 81 NE 10 2572 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 83 87 NE 10 3560 3540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 87 93 SW 5 5347 4019 479 Blue 6
12 Noon Sat 89 96 SW 5 6974 5312 1772 Blue 9
1 PM Sat 91 98 SW 5 13288 6249 2709 Blue 11
2 PM Sat 91 98 SW 16 13288 6249 2709 Blue 11
3 PM Sat 93 99 SW 16 13473 6890 3350 Blue 12
4 PM Sat 92 96 SW 16 6974 5312 1772 Blue 9
5 PM Sat 89 91 SW 16 4484 3719 179 Blue 4
6 PM Sat 85 85 SW 16 2925 3540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 81 81 SW 16 2572 3540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 74 74 SW 16 2572 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 72 72 SW 16 2572 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 72 72 SW 16 2572 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 72 72 S 2 2572 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 71 71 S 2 2572 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 71 71 S 2 2572 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 70 70 S 2 2572 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 70 70 S 2 2572 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 70 70 S 2 2572 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 66 66 N 5 2572 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 62 62 N 5 2572 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 62 62 N 5 2572 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 67 67 N 5 2572 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 73 75 N 5 2572 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 78 82 N 5 2572 3540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 83 89 SW 16 3818 3540 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Sun 85 92 SW 16 4921 3815 275 Blue 5
1 PM Sun 88 95 SW 16 6324 4891 1351 Blue 8
2 PM Sun 88 95 SW 16 6324 4891 1351 Blue 8
3 PM Sun 90 96 SW 16 6974 5312 1772 Blue 9
4 PM Sun 89 93 SW 16 5347 4019 479 Blue 6
5 PM Sun 86 88 SW 16 3722 3540 0 Blue 1
6 PM Sun 82 82 SW 16 2572 3540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 77 77 SW 16 2572 3540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 70 70 SW 16 2572 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 67 67 SW 16 2572 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 67 67 SW 16 2572 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 67 67 SE 5 2572 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 67 67 SE 5 2572 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 66 66 SE 5 2572 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 66 66 SE 5 2572 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 65 65 SE 5 2572 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 65 65 SE 5 2572 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 61 61 N 5 2572 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 57 57 N 5 2572 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 57 57 N 5 2572 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 62 62 N 5 2572 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 68 70 N 5 2572 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 73 77 N 5 2572 3540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 77 83 S 10 2572 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 79 86 S 10 3244 3540 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 82 89 S 10 3818 3540 0 Blue 2
2 PM Mon 82 89 S 10 3818 3540 0 Blue 2
3 PM Mon 84 90 S 10 4039 3551 11 Blue 3
4 PM Mon 83 87 S 10 3560 3540 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 80 82 S 10 2572 3540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 77 77 S 10 2572 3540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 73 73 S 10 2572 3540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 67 67 S 10 2572 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 66 66 S 10 2572 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 65 65 S 10 2572 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 65 65 SE 3 2572 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 65 65 SE 3 2572 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 65 65 SE 3 2572 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 64 64 SE 3 2572 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 64 64 SE 3 2572 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 63 63 SE 3 2572 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 61 61 E 2 2572 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 57 57 E 2 2572 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 57 57 E 2 2572 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 61 61 E 2 2572 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 67 69 E 2 2572 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 71 74 E 2 2572 3540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 74 80 S 14 2572 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 76 83 S 14 2572 3540 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 79 86 S 14 3244 3540 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 79 86 S 14 3244 3540 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 81 87 S 14 3560 3540 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 80 84 S 14 2604 3540 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 77 79 S 14 2572 3540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 74 74 S 14 2572 3540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 71 71 S 14 2572 3540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 65 65 S 14 2572 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 64 64 S 14 2572 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 64 64 S 14 2572 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 64 64 SE 5 2572 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 63 63 SE 5 2572 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 63 63 SE 5 2572 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 62 62 SE 5 2572 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 62 62 SE 5 2572 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 62 62 SE 5 2572 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 59 59 SE 3 2572 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 56 56 SE 3 2572 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 56 56 SE 3 2572 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 60 60 SE 3 2572 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 64 66 SE 3 2572 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 68 71 SE 3 2572 3540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 71 77 S 17 2572 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 73 80 S 17 2572 3540 0 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 75 82 S 17 2572 3540 0 Blue 0
2 PM Wed 75 82 S 17 2572 3540 0 Blue 0
3 PM Wed 76 82 S 17 2572 3540 0 Blue 0
4 PM Wed 76 80 S 17 2572 3540 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 74 76 S 17 2572 3540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 71 71 S 17 2572 3540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 68 68 S 17 2572 3540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 64 64 S 17 2572 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 62 62 S 17 2572 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 62 62 S 17 2572 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 62 62 E 5 2572 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 62 62 E 5 2572 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 62 62 E 5 2572 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 61 61 E 5 2572 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 61 61 E 5 2572 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 61 61 E 5 2572 3540 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst