Detailed Predictions for: Kagel
Launch Altitude (f): 3540
LZ Altitude (f): 1340
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

22 APR 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sun 61 61 N 5 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 61 61 N 5 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 63 63 N 5 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 65 66 N 5 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 69 72 N 5 3557 3540 0 Blue 1
10 AM Sun 72 77 N 5 6781 5315 1775 Blue 6
11 AM Sun 74 80 NW 1 10493 6670 3130 Blue 9
12 Noon Sun 75 82 NW 1 11763 8757 5217 Blue 11
1 PM Sun 75 83 NW 1 11849 9993 6453 Blue 12
2 PM Sun 74 81 S 12 11665 7476 3936 Blue 10
3 PM Sun 74 79 S 12 9036 6162 2622 Blue 8
4 PM Sun 74 78 S 12 7600 5764 2224 Blue 7
5 PM Sun 73 75 S 12 5809 3540 0 Blue 4
6 PM Sun 71 71 S 12 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 69 69 S 12 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 67 67 SW 5 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 66 66 SW 5 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 65 65 SW 5 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 64 64 S 3 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 63 63 S 3 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 63 63 S 3 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 62 62 S 1 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 61 61 S 1 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 61 61 S 1 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 60 60 NW 2 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 60 60 NW 2 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 59 59 NW 2 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 59 60 N 1 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 61 63 N 1 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 65 69 N 1 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 68 74 SW 3 5354 3540 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Mon 71 78 SW 3 7600 5764 2224 Blue 7
1 PM Mon 74 81 SW 3 11665 7476 3936 Blue 10
2 PM Mon 75 82 S 13 11763 8757 5217 Blue 11
3 PM Mon 76 81 S 13 11665 7476 3936 Blue 10
4 PM Mon 76 79 S 13 9036 6162 2622 Blue 8
5 PM Mon 75 77 S 13 6781 5315 1775 Blue 6
6 PM Mon 73 73 S 13 4507 3540 0 Blue 2
7 PM Mon 71 71 S 13 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 68 68 SW 6 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 66 66 SW 6 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 65 65 SW 6 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 64 64 S 2 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 63 63 S 2 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 62 62 S 2 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 61 61 SW 2 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 61 61 SW 2 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 61 61 SW 2 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 61 61 N 1 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 62 62 N 1 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 63 63 N 1 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 65 66 N 1 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 68 70 N 1 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 71 75 N 1 5809 3540 0 Blue 4
11 AM Tue 73 78 S 13 7600 5764 2224 Blue 7
12 Noon Tue 75 81 S 13 11665 7476 3936 Blue 10
1 PM Tue 75 81 S 13 11665 7476 3936 Blue 10
2 PM Tue 75 81 S 13 11665 7476 3936 Blue 10
3 PM Tue 76 80 S 13 10493 6670 3130 Blue 9
4 PM Tue 76 79 S 13 9036 6162 2622 Blue 8
5 PM Tue 76 77 S 12 6781 5315 1775 Blue 6
6 PM Tue 74 74 S 12 5354 3540 0 Blue 3
7 PM Tue 72 72 S 12 3557 3540 0 Blue 1
8 PM Tue 70 70 S 12 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 69 69 S 12 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 68 68 S 12 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 67 67 S 3 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 66 66 S 3 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 65 65 S 3 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 63 63 S 3 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 62 62 S 3 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 61 61 S 3 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 60 60 S 3 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 59 59 S 3 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 59 59 S 3 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 60 61 S 3 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 62 64 S 3 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 65 68 S 3 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 68 73 S 15 4507 3540 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Wed 70 76 S 15 6198 4455 915 Blue 5
1 PM Wed 72 78 S 15 7600 5764 2224 Blue 7
2 PM Wed 73 78 S 15 7600 5764 2224 Blue 7
3 PM Wed 74 78 S 15 7600 5764 2224 Blue 7
4 PM Wed 74 77 S 15 6781 5315 1775 Blue 6
5 PM Wed 74 75 SW 14 5809 3540 0 Blue 4
6 PM Wed 73 73 SW 14 4507 3540 0 Blue 2
7 PM Wed 71 71 SW 14 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 70 70 SW 14 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 68 68 SW 14 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 66 66 SW 14 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 64 64 S 3 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 62 62 S 3 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 61 61 S 3 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 60 60 S 3 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 59 59 S 3 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 59 59 S 3 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 59 59 S 3 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 60 60 S 3 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 61 61 S 3 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 63 63 S 3 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 65 66 S 3 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 66 68 S 3 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 68 73 SW 17 4507 3540 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Thu 69 75 SW 17 5809 3540 0 Blue 4
1 PM Thu 70 76 SW 17 6198 4455 915 Blue 5
2 PM Thu 71 77 SW 17 6781 5315 1775 Blue 6
3 PM Thu 71 75 SW 17 5809 3540 0 Blue 4
4 PM Thu 71 74 SW 17 5354 3540 0 Blue 3
5 PM Thu 70 71 SW 16 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 69 69 SW 16 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 67 67 SW 16 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 65 65 SW 16 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 64 64 SW 16 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 62 62 SW 16 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 60 60 S 6 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 59 59 S 6 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 58 58 S 6 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 58 58 S 6 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 57 57 S 6 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 57 57 S 6 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 57 57 S 5 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 57 57 S 5 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 58 58 S 5 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 59 59 S 5 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 60 61 S 5 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 62 64 S 5 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 63 67 S 20 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 65 70 S 20 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 67 72 S 20 3557 3540 0 Blue 1
2 PM Fri 68 73 S 20 4507 3540 0 Blue 2
3 PM Fri 69 73 S 20 4507 3540 0 Blue 2
4 PM Fri 69 71 S 20 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 68 69 SW 18 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 67 67 SW 18 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 66 66 SW 18 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 64 64 SW 18 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 62 62 SW 18 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 61 61 SW 18 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 59 59 S 8 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 58 58 S 8 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 57 57 S 8 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 56 56 S 8 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 56 56 S 8 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 56 56 S 8 2589 3540 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst