Detailed Predictions for: Kagel
Launch Altitude (f): 3540
LZ Altitude (f): 1340
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

20 JUL 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Fri 70 70 S 3 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 70 70 S 3 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 71 71 S 3 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 73 74 S 6 3068 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 75 77 S 6 3760 3540 0 Blue 1
10 AM Fri 76 80 S 6 4457 3750 210 Blue 4
11 AM Fri 77 82 S 8 4777 4289 749 Blue 6
12 Noon Fri 79 85 S 8 5738 4766 1226 Blue 9
1 PM Fri 80 87 S 8 6291 5434 1894 Blue 11
2 PM Fri 81 87 S 9 6291 5434 1894 Blue 11
3 PM Fri 81 86 S 9 6015 5156 1616 Blue 10
4 PM Fri 81 85 S 9 5738 4766 1226 Blue 9
5 PM Fri 80 82 S 9 4777 4289 749 Blue 6
6 PM Fri 79 80 S 9 4457 3750 210 Blue 4
7 PM Fri 77 77 S 9 3760 3540 0 Blue 1
8 PM Fri 75 75 S 7 3251 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 73 73 S 7 2885 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 72 72 S 7 2701 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 72 72 S 5 2701 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 71 71 S 5 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 71 71 S 5 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 70 70 S 3 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 70 70 S 3 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 69 69 S 3 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 69 69 SW 3 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 69 69 SW 3 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 70 70 SW 3 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 72 73 SW 2 2885 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 74 76 SW 2 3472 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 75 79 SW 2 4298 3540 0 Blue 3
11 AM Sat 77 83 S 10 5178 4448 908 Blue 7
12 Noon Sat 79 86 S 10 6015 5156 1616 Blue 10
1 PM Sat 80 87 S 10 6291 5434 1894 Blue 11
2 PM Sat 81 88 S 9 6565 5711 2171 Blue 12
3 PM Sat 81 87 S 9 6291 5434 1894 Blue 11
4 PM Sat 81 85 S 9 5738 4766 1226 Blue 9
5 PM Sat 80 82 S 10 4777 4289 749 Blue 6
6 PM Sat 79 80 S 10 4457 3750 210 Blue 4
7 PM Sat 78 78 S 10 4046 3540 0 Blue 2
8 PM Sat 75 75 S 10 3251 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 74 74 S 10 3068 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 73 73 S 10 2885 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 73 73 S 3 2885 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 72 72 S 3 2701 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 71 71 S 3 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 71 71 S 3 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 71 71 S 3 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 70 70 S 3 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 70 70 SW 7 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 70 70 SW 7 2589 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 72 72 SW 7 2701 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 75 76 SW 7 3472 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 77 79 SW 7 4298 3540 0 Blue 3
10 AM Sun 79 83 SW 7 5178 4448 908 Blue 7
11 AM Sun 82 88 SW 10 6565 5711 2171 Blue 12
12 Noon Sun 84 91 SW 10 7411 6531 2991 Blue 15
1 PM Sun 86 94 SW 10 8991 7309 3769 Blue 18
2 PM Sun 88 95 SW 10 9327 7968 4428 Blue 19
3 PM Sun 88 94 SW 10 8991 7309 3769 Blue 18
4 PM Sun 88 92 SW 10 8079 6738 3198 Blue 16
5 PM Sun 87 90 SW 12 6900 6260 2720 Blue 14
6 PM Sun 85 86 SW 12 6015 5156 1616 Blue 10
7 PM Sun 83 83 SW 12 5178 4448 908 Blue 7
8 PM Sun 80 80 SW 12 4457 3750 210 Blue 4
9 PM Sun 78 78 SW 12 4046 3540 0 Blue 2
10 PM Sun 77 77 SW 12 3760 3540 0 Blue 1
11 PM Sun 77 77 SW 10 3760 3540 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Mon 76 76 SW 10 3472 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 75 75 SW 10 3251 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 74 74 SW 10 3068 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 74 74 SW 10 3068 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 74 74 SW 10 3068 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 73 73 N 7 2885 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 73 73 N 7 2885 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 76 76 N 7 3472 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 79 80 N 7 4457 3750 210 Blue 4
9 AM Mon 82 84 N 7 5459 4607 1067 Blue 8
10 AM Mon 85 89 N 7 6757 5986 2446 Blue 13
11 AM Mon 88 94 SW 12 8991 7309 3769 Blue 18
12 Noon Mon 91 98 SW 12 10338 9256 5716 Blue 22
1 PM Mon 94 102 SW 12 12135 10596 7056 White 26
2 PM Mon 96 104 SW 12 12549 11408 7868 White 28
3 PM Mon 96 102 SW 12 12135 10596 7056 White 26
4 PM Mon 96 101 SW 12 11927 10255 6715 White 25
5 PM Mon 94 97 SW 10 9996 8923 5383 Blue 21
6 PM Mon 93 94 SW 10 8991 7309 3769 Blue 18
7 PM Mon 90 90 SW 10 6900 6260 2720 Blue 14
8 PM Mon 86 86 SW 10 6015 5156 1616 Blue 10
9 PM Mon 84 84 SW 10 5459 4607 1067 Blue 8
10 PM Mon 82 82 SW 10 4777 4289 749 Blue 6
11 PM Mon 81 81 NW 7 4617 4033 493 Blue 5
12 Midnight Tue 80 80 NW 7 4457 3750 210 Blue 4
1 AM Tue 79 79 NW 7 4298 3540 0 Blue 3
2 AM Tue 79 79 NW 7 4298 3540 0 Blue 3
3 AM Tue 78 78 NW 7 4046 3540 0 Blue 2
4 AM Tue 78 78 NW 7 4046 3540 0 Blue 2
5 AM Tue 77 77 N 7 3760 3540 0 Blue 1
6 AM Tue 77 77 N 7 3760 3540 0 Blue 1
7 AM Tue 79 79 N 7 4298 3540 0 Blue 3
8 AM Tue 82 83 N 7 5178 4448 908 Blue 7
9 AM Tue 85 88 N 7 6565 5711 2171 Blue 12
10 AM Tue 87 91 N 7 7411 6531 2991 Blue 15
11 AM Tue 89 95 SW 10 9327 7968 4428 Blue 19
12 Noon Tue 92 99 SW 10 10685 9585 6045 Blue 23
1 PM Tue 94 102 SW 10 12135 10596 7056 White 26
2 PM Tue 96 104 SW 10 12549 11408 7868 White 28
3 PM Tue 96 102 SW 10 12135 10596 7056 White 26
4 PM Tue 96 101 SW 10 11927 10255 6715 White 25
5 PM Tue 94 97 SW 12 9996 8923 5383 Blue 21
6 PM Tue 93 94 SW 12 8991 7309 3769 Blue 18
7 PM Tue 90 90 SW 12 6900 6260 2720 Blue 14
8 PM Tue 86 86 SW 12 6015 5156 1616 Blue 10
9 PM Tue 83 83 SW 12 5178 4448 908 Blue 7
10 PM Tue 81 81 SW 12 4617 4033 493 Blue 5
11 PM Tue 81 81 N 5 4617 4033 493 Blue 5
12 Midnight Wed 80 80 N 5 4457 3750 210 Blue 4
1 AM Wed 79 79 N 5 4298 3540 0 Blue 3
2 AM Wed 78 78 N 5 4046 3540 0 Blue 2
3 AM Wed 77 77 N 5 3760 3540 0 Blue 1
4 AM Wed 77 77 N 5 3760 3540 0 Blue 1
5 AM Wed 76 76 N 7 3472 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 76 76 N 7 3472 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 79 79 N 7 4298 3540 0 Blue 3
8 AM Wed 82 83 N 7 5178 4448 908 Blue 7
9 AM Wed 85 88 N 7 6565 5711 2171 Blue 12
10 AM Wed 87 91 N 7 7411 6531 2991 Blue 15
11 AM Wed 90 96 SW 10 9658 8588 5048 Blue 20
12 Noon Wed 94 101 SW 10 11927 10255 6715 White 25
1 PM Wed 96 104 SW 10 12549 11408 7868 White 28
2 PM Wed 98 106 SW 10 12957 12957 9417 White 30
3 PM Wed 98 104 SW 10 12549 11408 7868 White 28
4 PM Wed 98 103 SW 10 12343 10940 7400 White 27
5 PM Wed 96 99 SW 12 10685 9585 6045 Blue 23
6 PM Wed 94 95 SW 12 9327 7968 4428 Blue 19
7 PM Wed 91 91 SW 12 7411 6531 2991 Blue 15
8 PM Wed 87 87 SW 12 6291 5434 1894 Blue 11
9 PM Wed 84 84 SW 12 5459 4607 1067 Blue 8
10 PM Wed 82 82 SW 12 4777 4289 749 Blue 6
11 PM Wed 81 81 S 5 4617 4033 493 Blue 5
12 Midnight Thu 80 80 S 5 4457 3750 210 Blue 4
1 AM Thu 79 79 S 5 4298 3540 0 Blue 3
2 AM Thu 78 78 S 5 4046 3540 0 Blue 2
3 AM Thu 77 77 S 5 3760 3540 0 Blue 1
4 AM Thu 77 77 S 5 3760 3540 0 Blue 1

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst