Detailed Predictions for: Kagel
Launch Altitude (f): 3540
LZ Altitude (f): 1340
Sounding

Station:

 KNKX

Date/Time:

 11 MAR 2010

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
7 AM Thu 40 40 NE 20 2621 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 46 47 NE 20 3569 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 50 52 NE 20 5444 4088 548 Blue 2
10 AM Thu 55 59 NE 13 7110 6765 3225 Blue 9
11 AM Thu 61 66 NE 13 8581 7547 4007 Blue 16
12 Noon Thu 62 67 NE 13 8900 7873 4333 Blue 17
1 PM Thu 63 68 NE 6 9075 8196 4656 Blue 18
2 PM Thu 63 67 NE 6 8900 7873 4333 Blue 17
3 PM Thu 61 63 NE 6 7602 7203 3663 Blue 13
4 PM Thu 60 61 NW 3 7329 6984 3444 Blue 11
5 PM Thu 56 56 NW 3 6780 5764 2224 Blue 6
6 PM Thu 50 50 NW 3 4555 3560 20 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 48 48 NE 5 3835 3540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 45 45 NE 5 3031 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 45 45 NE 5 3031 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 47 47 E 0 3569 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 45 45 E 0 3031 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 48 48 E 0 3835 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 46 46 S 3 3301 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 44 44 S 3 2760 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 42 42 S 3 2621 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 42 42 S 1 2621 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 42 42 S 1 2621 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 41 41 S 1 2621 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 43 43 SE 2 2621 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 48 49 SE 2 4101 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 51 53 SE 2 5801 4509 969 Blue 3
10 AM Fri 54 57 S 3 6890 6113 2573 Blue 7
11 AM Fri 59 63 S 3 7602 7203 3663 Blue 13
12 Noon Fri 61 65 S 3 8257 7421 3881 Blue 15
1 PM Fri 61 65 S 9 8257 7421 3881 Blue 15
2 PM Fri 61 64 S 9 7931 7312 3772 Blue 14
3 PM Fri 59 61 S 9 7329 6984 3444 Blue 11
4 PM Fri 59 59 SW 9 7110 6765 3225 Blue 9
5 PM Fri 56 56 SW 9 6780 5764 2224 Blue 6
6 PM Fri 50 50 SW 9 4555 3560 20 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 48 48 W 8 3835 3540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 46 46 W 8 3301 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 46 46 W 8 3301 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 48 48 SW 4 3835 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 46 46 SW 4 3301 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 48 48 SW 4 3835 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 47 47 W 5 3569 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 45 45 W 5 3031 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 43 43 W 5 2621 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 44 44 NE 4 2760 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 44 44 NE 4 2760 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 43 43 NE 4 2621 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 44 44 N 6 2760 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 47 47 N 6 3569 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 49 50 N 6 4555 3560 20 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 51 54 NW 11 6154 5053 1513 Blue 4
11 AM Sat 54 57 NW 11 6890 6113 2573 Blue 7
12 Noon Sat 55 59 NW 11 7110 6765 3225 Blue 9
1 PM Sat 55 58 NW 9 7000 6458 2918 Blue 8
2 PM Sat 55 58 NW 9 7000 6458 2918 Blue 8
3 PM Sat 53 54 NW 9 6154 5053 1513 Blue 4
4 PM Sat 53 53 NW 4 5801 4509 969 Blue 3
5 PM Sat 50 50 NW 4 4555 3560 20 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 45 45 NW 4 3031 3540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 44 44 NW 4 2760 3540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 42 42 NW 4 2621 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 41 41 NW 4 2621 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 43 43 NE 14 2621 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 42 42 NE 14 2621 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 44 44 NE 14 2760 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 42 42 NE 14 2621 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 41 41 NE 14 2621 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 40 40 NE 14 2621 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 40 40 NE 16 2621 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 40 40 NE 16 2621 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 39 39 NE 16 2621 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 41 41 NE 16 2621 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 47 48 NE 16 3835 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 51 53 NE 16 5801 4509 969 Blue 3
10 AM Sun 55 58 NE 15 7000 6458 2918 Blue 8
11 AM Sun 62 66 NE 15 8581 7547 4007 Blue 16
12 Noon Sun 63 68 NE 15 9075 8196 4656 Blue 18
1 PM Sun 64 68 NE 15 9075 8196 4656 Blue 18
2 PM Sun 64 67 NE 15 8900 7873 4333 Blue 17
3 PM Sun 62 64 NE 15 7931 7312 3772 Blue 14
4 PM Sun 61 62 NE 11 7439 7093 3553 Blue 12
5 PM Sun 58 58 NE 11 7000 6458 2918 Blue 8
6 PM Sun 52 52 NE 11 5444 4088 548 Blue 2
7 PM Sun 49 49 NE 11 4101 3540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 47 47 NE 11 3569 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 46 46 NE 11 3301 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 49 49 NE 15 4101 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 47 47 NE 15 3569 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 49 49 NE 15 4101 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 48 48 NE 15 3835 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 46 46 NE 15 3301 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 44 44 NE 15 2760 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 44 44 NE 15 2760 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 44 44 NE 15 2760 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 43 43 NE 15 2621 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 46 46 NE 15 3301 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 54 55 NE 15 6503 5411 1871 Blue 5
9 AM Mon 59 61 NE 15 7329 6984 3444 Blue 11
10 AM Mon 64 68 NE 12 9075 8196 4656 Blue 18
11 AM Mon 72 77 NE 12 10653 9876 6336 Blue 27
12 Noon Mon 74 79 NE 12 11952 10299 6759 Blue 29
1 PM Mon 75 80 NE 12 12387 10577 7037 White 30
2 PM Mon 75 79 NE 12 11952 10299 6759 Blue 29
3 PM Mon 72 74 NE 12 9910 9461 5921 Blue 24
4 PM Mon 71 72 NE 5 9632 9183 5643 Blue 22
5 PM Mon 67 67 NE 5 8900 7873 4333 Blue 17
6 PM Mon 59 59 NE 5 7110 6765 3225 Blue 9
7 PM Mon 56 56 NE 5 6780 5764 2224 Blue 6
8 PM Mon 53 53 NE 5 5801 4509 969 Blue 3
9 PM Mon 52 52 NE 5 5444 4088 548 Blue 2
10 PM Mon 55 55 NE 8 6503 5411 1871 Blue 5
11 PM Mon 53 53 NE 8 5801 4509 969 Blue 3
12 Midnight Tue 56 56 NE 8 6780 5764 2224 Blue 6
1 AM Tue 54 54 NE 8 6154 5053 1513 Blue 4
2 AM Tue 51 51 NE 8 5083 3825 285 Blue 1
3 AM Tue 49 49 NE 8 4101 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 49 49 NE 10 4101 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 49 49 NE 10 4101 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 48 48 NE 10 3835 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 50 50 NE 10 4555 3560 20 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 57 58 NE 10 7000 6458 2918 Blue 8
9 AM Tue 61 63 NE 10 7602 7203 3663 Blue 13
10 AM Tue 66 70 E 3 9354 8833 5293 Blue 20
11 AM Tue 73 78 E 3 11292 10019 6479 Blue 28
12 Noon Tue 74 79 E 3 11952 10299 6759 Blue 29
1 PM Tue 75 80 E 3 12387 10577 7037 White 30
2 PM Tue 75 79 E 3 11952 10299 6759 Blue 29
3 PM Tue 72 74 E 3 9910 9461 5921 Blue 24
4 PM Tue 72 73 SW 6 9771 9322 5782 Blue 23
5 PM Tue 67 67 SW 6 8900 7873 4333 Blue 17
6 PM Tue 60 60 SW 6 7220 6875 3335 Blue 10
7 PM Tue 56 56 SW 6 6780 5764 2224 Blue 6
8 PM Tue 54 54 SW 6 6154 5053 1513 Blue 4
9 PM Tue 53 53 SW 6 5801 4509 969 Blue 3
10 PM Tue 56 56 NE 5 6780 5764 2224 Blue 6
11 PM Tue 54 54 NE 5 6154 5053 1513 Blue 4
12 Midnight Wed 57 57 NE 5 6890 6113 2573 Blue 7
1 AM Wed 55 55 NE 5 6503 5411 1871 Blue 5
2 AM Wed 52 52 NE 5 5444 4088 548 Blue 2
3 AM Wed 50 50 NE 5 4555 3560 20 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 50 50 NE 8 4555 3560 20 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 50 50 NE 8 4555 3560 20 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 49 49 NE 8 4101 3540 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst