Detailed Predictions for: Kagel
Launch Altitude (f): 3540
LZ Altitude (f): 1340
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

11 NOV 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Mon 60 60 NE 14 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 61 61 NE 14 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 59 59 NE 14 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 60 60 NE 16 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 67 67 NE 16 2708 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 70 71 NE 16 3176 3540 0 Blue 4
10 AM Mon 72 74 E 9 4486 3540 0 Blue 7
11 AM Mon 74 77 E 9 6734 4443 903 Blue 10
12 Noon Mon 75 78 E 9 7415 5182 1642 Blue 11
1 PM Mon 76 79 E 7 8064 5935 2395 Blue 12
2 PM Mon 76 78 E 7 7415 5182 1642 Blue 11
3 PM Mon 75 76 E 7 6013 3684 144 Blue 9
4 PM Mon 74 74 E 8 4486 3540 0 Blue 7
5 PM Mon 70 70 E 8 3036 3540 0 Blue 3
6 PM Mon 67 67 E 8 2708 3540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 66 66 NE 9 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 66 66 NE 9 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 65 65 NE 9 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 65 65 NE 13 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 63 63 NE 13 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 63 63 NE 13 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 62 62 NE 16 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 62 62 NE 16 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 62 62 NE 16 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 63 63 NE 16 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 63 63 NE 16 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 62 62 NE 16 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 63 63 NE 14 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 70 70 NE 14 3036 3540 0 Blue 3
9 AM Tue 72 73 NE 14 3711 3540 0 Blue 6
10 AM Tue 74 76 S 10 6013 3684 144 Blue 9
11 AM Tue 77 80 S 10 8591 6643 3103 Blue 13
12 Noon Tue 77 80 S 10 8591 6643 3103 Blue 13
1 PM Tue 78 81 S 7 8971 7314 3774 Blue 14
2 PM Tue 78 80 S 7 8591 6643 3103 Blue 13
3 PM Tue 77 78 S 7 7415 5182 1642 Blue 11
4 PM Tue 76 76 S 5 6013 3684 144 Blue 9
5 PM Tue 71 71 S 5 3176 3540 0 Blue 4
6 PM Tue 68 68 S 5 2800 3540 0 Blue 1
7 PM Tue 67 67 S 5 2708 3540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 67 67 S 5 2708 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 66 66 S 5 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 65 65 SE 5 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 63 63 SE 5 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 63 63 SE 5 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 62 62 SE 5 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 63 63 SE 5 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 62 62 SE 5 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 63 63 NE 5 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 63 63 NE 5 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 62 62 NE 5 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 63 63 NE 5 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 68 68 NE 5 2800 3540 0 Blue 1
9 AM Wed 69 69 NE 5 2911 3540 0 Blue 2
10 AM Wed 71 72 S 7 3358 3540 0 Blue 5
11 AM Wed 73 74 S 7 4486 3540 0 Blue 7
12 Noon Wed 74 75 S 7 5246 3540 0 Blue 8
1 PM Wed 74 75 S 7 5246 3540 0 Blue 8
2 PM Wed 74 75 S 7 5246 3540 0 Blue 8
3 PM Wed 73 73 S 7 3711 3540 0 Blue 6
4 PM Wed 72 72 S 7 3358 3540 0 Blue 5
5 PM Wed 68 68 S 7 2800 3540 0 Blue 1
6 PM Wed 65 65 S 7 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 64 64 S 7 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 64 64 S 7 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 63 63 S 7 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 63 63 S 7 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 61 61 S 7 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 61 61 S 7 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 60 60 S 7 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 60 60 S 7 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 60 60 S 7 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 61 61 SE 6 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 61 61 SE 6 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 60 60 SE 6 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 60 60 SE 6 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 63 63 SE 6 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 64 64 SE 6 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 65 66 S 9 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 66 67 S 9 2708 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 67 68 S 9 2800 3540 0 Blue 1
1 PM Thu 67 68 S 9 2800 3540 0 Blue 1
2 PM Thu 67 68 S 9 2800 3540 0 Blue 1
3 PM Thu 66 66 S 9 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 66 66 SW 9 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 63 63 SW 9 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 61 61 SW 9 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 61 61 SW 9 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 61 61 SW 9 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 60 60 SW 9 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 60 60 E 5 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 59 59 E 5 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 59 59 E 5 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 58 58 E 5 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 58 58 E 5 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 58 58 E 5 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 58 58 E 5 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 59 59 E 5 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 58 58 E 5 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 59 59 E 5 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 63 63 E 5 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 65 65 E 5 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 66 68 SW 9 2800 3540 0 Blue 1
11 AM Fri 68 71 SW 9 3176 3540 0 Blue 4
12 Noon Fri 69 72 SW 9 3358 3540 0 Blue 5
1 PM Fri 69 71 SW 9 3176 3540 0 Blue 4
2 PM Fri 69 71 SW 9 3176 3540 0 Blue 4
3 PM Fri 68 69 SW 9 2911 3540 0 Blue 2
4 PM Fri 67 67 SW 9 2708 3540 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 64 64 SW 9 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 61 61 SW 9 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 61 61 SW 9 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 61 61 SW 9 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 60 60 SW 9 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 59 59 N 13 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 58 58 N 13 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 58 58 N 13 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 57 57 N 13 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 57 57 N 13 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 57 57 N 13 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 58 58 N 13 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 58 58 N 13 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 57 57 N 13 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 58 58 N 13 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 65 65 N 13 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 67 68 N 13 2800 3540 0 Blue 1
10 AM Sat 69 71 N 7 3176 3540 0 Blue 4
11 AM Sat 72 75 N 7 5246 3540 0 Blue 8
12 Noon Sat 72 75 N 7 5246 3540 0 Blue 8
1 PM Sat 73 76 N 7 6013 3684 144 Blue 9
2 PM Sat 73 75 N 7 5246 3540 0 Blue 8
3 PM Sat 72 73 N 7 3711 3540 0 Blue 6
4 PM Sat 71 71 N 9 3176 3540 0 Blue 4
5 PM Sat 68 68 N 9 2800 3540 0 Blue 1
6 PM Sat 65 65 N 9 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 64 64 N 9 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 64 64 N 9 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 63 63 N 9 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 62 62 N 9 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 61 61 N 9 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 61 61 N 9 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 60 60 N 9 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 60 60 N 9 2595 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 60 60 N 9 2595 3540 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst