Detailed Predictions for: Kagel
Launch Altitude (f): 3540
LZ Altitude (f): 1340
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

18 MAY 2019

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Sat 47 47 NE 5 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 46 46 NE 5 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 46 46 NE 5 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 48 49 W 0 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 50 53 W 0 2898 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 51 56 W 0 3976 3540 0 Blue 2
11 AM Sat 54 58 SW 10 4134 3608 68 Blue 4
12 Noon Sat 57 62 SW 10 5055 4181 641 Blue 8
1 PM Sat 60 65 SW 10 5401 5046 1506 Blue 11
2 PM Sat 60 65 S 14 5401 5046 1506 Blue 11
3 PM Sat 62 66 S 14 5541 5156 1616 Blue 12
4 PM Sat 62 64 S 14 5276 4802 1262 Blue 10
5 PM Sat 61 61 S 10 4829 4132 592 Blue 7
6 PM Sat 59 59 S 10 4184 3971 431 Blue 5
7 PM Sat 56 56 S 10 3976 3540 0 Blue 2
8 PM Sat 53 53 SW 12 2898 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 51 51 SW 12 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 50 50 SW 12 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 50 50 S 7 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 49 49 S 7 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 48 48 S 7 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 47 47 S 12 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 47 47 S 12 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 47 47 S 12 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 46 46 S 10 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 46 46 S 10 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 46 46 S 10 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 47 47 S 12 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 48 48 S 12 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 49 49 S 12 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 50 53 SW 10 2898 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 51 54 SW 10 3206 3540 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 53 56 SW 10 3976 3540 0 Blue 2
2 PM Sun 53 56 S 15 3976 3540 0 Blue 2
3 PM Sun 54 56 S 15 3976 3540 0 Blue 2
4 PM Sun 54 55 S 15 3621 3540 0 Blue 1
5 PM Sun 53 54 W 14 3206 3540 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 52 52 W 14 2685 3540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 50 50 W 14 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 48 48 W 14 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 47 47 W 14 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 46 46 W 14 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 46 46 NW 17 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 45 45 NW 17 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 44 44 NW 17 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 44 44 NW 17 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 43 43 NW 17 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 44 44 NW 17 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 43 43 W 10 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 43 43 W 10 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 43 43 W 10 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 45 46 W 10 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 47 50 W 10 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 48 53 W 10 2898 3540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 51 57 SW 9 4085 3540 0 Blue 3
12 Noon Mon 54 61 SW 9 4829 4132 592 Blue 7
1 PM Mon 57 64 SW 9 5276 4802 1262 Blue 10
2 PM Mon 57 63 SW 9 5165 4422 882 Blue 9
3 PM Mon 59 64 SW 9 5276 4802 1262 Blue 10
4 PM Mon 59 62 SW 9 5055 4181 641 Blue 8
5 PM Mon 58 60 SW 15 4444 4083 543 Blue 6
6 PM Mon 57 57 SW 15 4085 3540 0 Blue 3
7 PM Mon 54 54 SW 15 3206 3540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 52 52 SW 15 2685 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 50 50 SW 15 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 49 49 SW 15 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 49 49 S 9 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 48 48 S 9 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 47 47 S 9 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 47 47 S 9 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 47 47 S 9 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 47 47 S 9 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 46 46 NW 7 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 46 46 NW 7 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 46 46 NW 7 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 47 47 NW 7 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 48 49 NW 7 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 49 51 NW 7 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 50 53 SW 14 2898 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 52 55 SW 14 3621 3540 0 Blue 1
1 PM Tue 54 57 SW 14 4085 3540 0 Blue 3
2 PM Tue 54 57 SW 14 4085 3540 0 Blue 3
3 PM Tue 55 57 SW 14 4085 3540 0 Blue 3
4 PM Tue 55 56 SW 14 3976 3540 0 Blue 2
5 PM Tue 54 55 SW 13 3621 3540 0 Blue 1
6 PM Tue 53 53 SW 13 2898 3540 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 52 52 SW 13 2685 3540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 50 50 SW 13 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 49 49 SW 13 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 48 48 SW 13 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 48 48 NW 7 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 48 48 NW 7 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 47 47 NW 7 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 46 46 NW 7 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 46 46 NW 7 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 46 46 NW 7 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 46 46 SE 7 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 46 46 SE 7 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 46 46 SE 7 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 47 48 SE 7 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 49 51 SE 7 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 50 53 SE 7 2898 3540 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 52 56 W 13 3976 3540 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Wed 55 59 W 13 4184 3971 431 Blue 5
1 PM Wed 57 62 W 13 5055 4181 641 Blue 8
2 PM Wed 58 62 W 13 5055 4181 641 Blue 8
3 PM Wed 59 62 W 13 5055 4181 641 Blue 8
4 PM Wed 59 61 W 13 4829 4132 592 Blue 7
5 PM Wed 58 59 W 13 4184 3971 431 Blue 5
6 PM Wed 57 57 W 13 4085 3540 0 Blue 3
7 PM Wed 55 55 W 13 3621 3540 0 Blue 1
8 PM Wed 53 53 W 13 2898 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 52 52 W 13 2685 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 51 51 W 13 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 51 51 NW 7 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 50 50 NW 7 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 49 49 NW 7 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 49 49 NW 7 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 48 48 NW 7 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 49 49 NW 7 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 48 48 NW 5 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 48 48 NW 5 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 48 48 NW 5 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 50 51 NW 5 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 51 53 NW 5 2898 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 53 56 NW 5 3976 3540 0 Blue 2
11 AM Thu 55 59 S 12 4184 3971 431 Blue 5
12 Noon Thu 58 63 S 12 5165 4422 882 Blue 9
1 PM Thu 61 66 S 12 5541 5156 1616 Blue 12
2 PM Thu 61 66 S 12 5541 5156 1616 Blue 12
3 PM Thu 63 67 S 12 5951 5266 1726 Blue 13
4 PM Thu 63 65 S 12 5401 5046 1506 Blue 11
5 PM Thu 62 64 W 7 5276 4802 1262 Blue 10
6 PM Thu 61 61 W 7 4829 4132 592 Blue 7
7 PM Thu 58 58 W 7 4134 3608 68 Blue 4
8 PM Thu 56 56 W 7 3976 3540 0 Blue 2
9 PM Thu 54 54 W 7 3206 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 53 53 W 7 2898 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 53 53 N 6 2898 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 52 52 N 6 2685 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 51 51 N 6 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 51 51 N 6 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 51 51 N 6 2536 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 51 51 N 6 2536 3540 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst