Detailed Predictions for: Kagel
Launch Altitude (f): 3540
LZ Altitude (f): 1340
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

21 SEP 2018

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
5 AM Fri 64 64 E 6 2612 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 64 64 E 6 2612 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 64 64 E 6 2612 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 67 67 E 6 2612 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 71 72 E 6 2612 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 74 77 E 6 3105 3540 0 Blue 2
11 AM Fri 76 81 S 8 3641 3540 0 Blue 6
12 Noon Fri 78 84 S 8 4275 3634 94 Blue 9
1 PM Fri 79 85 S 8 4579 3845 305 Blue 10
2 PM Fri 81 86 S 9 4988 4055 515 Blue 11
3 PM Fri 81 85 S 9 4579 3845 305 Blue 10
4 PM Fri 80 83 S 9 4064 3540 0 Blue 8
5 PM Fri 79 80 SW 8 3452 3540 0 Blue 5
6 PM Fri 78 78 SW 8 3196 3540 0 Blue 3
7 PM Fri 74 74 SW 8 2687 3540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 71 71 SW 5 2612 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 70 70 SW 5 2612 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 70 70 SW 5 2612 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 69 69 S 2 2612 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 68 68 S 2 2612 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 68 68 S 2 2612 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 67 67 SE 2 2612 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 66 66 SE 2 2612 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 66 66 SE 2 2612 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 66 66 SE 2 2612 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 66 66 SE 2 2612 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 66 66 SE 2 2612 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 70 70 E 2 2612 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 73 74 E 2 2687 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 77 80 E 2 3452 3540 0 Blue 5
11 AM Sat 78 83 SW 9 4064 3540 0 Blue 8
12 Noon Sat 80 86 SW 9 4988 4055 515 Blue 11
1 PM Sat 82 88 SW 9 6407 4554 1014 Blue 13
2 PM Sat 84 89 SW 10 8663 4959 1419 Blue 14
3 PM Sat 84 88 SW 10 6407 4554 1014 Blue 13
4 PM Sat 83 86 SW 10 4988 4055 515 Blue 11
5 PM Sat 82 83 SW 7 4064 3540 0 Blue 8
6 PM Sat 80 80 SW 7 3452 3540 0 Blue 5
7 PM Sat 76 76 SW 7 3022 3540 0 Blue 1
8 PM Sat 72 72 SW 7 2612 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 71 71 SW 7 2612 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 70 70 SW 7 2612 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 69 69 S 2 2612 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 68 68 S 2 2612 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 68 68 S 2 2612 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 67 67 S 2 2612 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 67 67 S 2 2612 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 67 67 S 2 2612 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 66 66 S 2 2612 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 66 66 S 2 2612 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 66 66 S 2 2612 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 69 69 S 2 2612 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 72 73 S 2 2612 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 74 77 S 2 3105 3540 0 Blue 2
11 AM Sun 76 81 SW 10 3641 3540 0 Blue 6
12 Noon Sun 77 83 SW 10 4064 3540 0 Blue 8
1 PM Sun 79 85 SW 10 4579 3845 305 Blue 10
2 PM Sun 80 85 SW 10 4579 3845 305 Blue 10
3 PM Sun 80 84 SW 10 4275 3634 94 Blue 9
4 PM Sun 79 82 SW 10 3853 3540 0 Blue 7
5 PM Sun 78 79 SW 7 3324 3540 0 Blue 4
6 PM Sun 77 77 SW 7 3105 3540 0 Blue 2
7 PM Sun 73 73 SW 7 2612 3540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 70 70 SW 7 2612 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 69 69 SW 7 2612 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 69 69 SW 7 2612 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 68 68 SE 6 2612 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 67 67 SE 6 2612 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 67 67 SE 6 2612 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 66 66 SE 6 2612 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 65 65 SE 6 2612 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 65 65 SE 6 2612 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 65 65 SE 6 2612 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 65 65 SE 6 2612 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 65 65 SE 6 2612 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 68 68 SE 6 2612 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 71 72 SE 6 2612 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 74 77 SE 6 3105 3540 0 Blue 2
11 AM Mon 75 80 SW 8 3452 3540 0 Blue 5
12 Noon Mon 77 83 SW 8 4064 3540 0 Blue 8
1 PM Mon 79 85 SW 8 4579 3845 305 Blue 10
2 PM Mon 80 85 SW 8 4579 3845 305 Blue 10
3 PM Mon 80 84 SW 8 4275 3634 94 Blue 9
4 PM Mon 79 82 SW 8 3853 3540 0 Blue 7
5 PM Mon 78 79 SW 8 3324 3540 0 Blue 4
6 PM Mon 77 77 SW 8 3105 3540 0 Blue 2
7 PM Mon 73 73 SW 8 2612 3540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 69 69 SW 8 2612 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 68 68 SW 8 2612 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 68 68 SW 8 2612 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 67 67 NE 5 2612 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 66 66 NE 5 2612 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 66 66 NE 5 2612 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 65 65 NE 5 2612 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 65 65 NE 5 2612 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 65 65 NE 5 2612 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 64 64 NE 7 2612 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 64 64 NE 7 2612 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 64 64 NE 7 2612 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 68 68 NE 7 2612 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 72 73 NE 7 2612 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 75 78 NE 7 3196 3540 0 Blue 3
11 AM Tue 77 82 S 6 3853 3540 0 Blue 7
12 Noon Tue 79 85 S 6 4579 3845 305 Blue 10
1 PM Tue 81 87 S 6 5576 4265 725 Blue 12
2 PM Tue 83 88 S 6 6407 4554 1014 Blue 13
3 PM Tue 83 87 S 6 5576 4265 725 Blue 12
4 PM Tue 82 85 S 6 4579 3845 305 Blue 10
5 PM Tue 81 82 S 6 3853 3540 0 Blue 7
6 PM Tue 79 79 S 6 3324 3540 0 Blue 4
7 PM Tue 75 75 S 6 2914 3540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 71 71 S 6 2612 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 70 70 S 6 2612 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 69 69 S 6 2612 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 68 68 N 5 2612 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 67 67 N 5 2612 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 67 67 N 5 2612 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 66 66 N 5 2612 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 66 66 N 5 2612 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 66 66 N 5 2612 3540 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 65 65 NE 7 2612 3540 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 65 65 NE 7 2612 3540 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 65 65 NE 7 2612 3540 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 68 68 NE 7 2612 3540 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 72 73 NE 7 2612 3540 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 75 78 NE 7 3196 3540 0 Blue 3
11 AM Wed 77 82 SW 8 3853 3540 0 Blue 7
12 Noon Wed 79 85 SW 8 4579 3845 305 Blue 10
1 PM Wed 80 86 SW 8 4988 4055 515 Blue 11
2 PM Wed 82 87 SW 8 5576 4265 725 Blue 12
3 PM Wed 82 86 SW 8 4988 4055 515 Blue 11
4 PM Wed 81 84 SW 8 4275 3634 94 Blue 9
5 PM Wed 80 81 SW 8 3641 3540 0 Blue 6
6 PM Wed 78 78 SW 8 3196 3540 0 Blue 3
7 PM Wed 74 74 SW 8 2687 3540 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 71 71 SW 8 2612 3540 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 70 70 SW 8 2612 3540 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 69 69 SW 8 2612 3540 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 68 68 NE 5 2612 3540 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 67 67 NE 5 2612 3540 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 67 67 NE 5 2612 3540 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 66 66 NE 5 2612 3540 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 66 66 NE 5 2612 3540 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 66 66 NE 5 2612 3540 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst