Detailed Predictions for: Kagel
Launch Altitude (f): 3540
LZ Altitude (f): 1340
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
4 AM Wed 46 46 S 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Wed 46 46 S 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Wed 45 45 S 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Wed 46 46 S 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Wed 47 47 S 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Wed 48 48 S 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Wed 51 51 SE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Wed 52 52 SE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Wed 52 52 SE 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Wed 53 53 S 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Wed 53 53 S 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Wed 53 53 S 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Wed 52 52 S 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Wed 51 51 S 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Wed 51 51 S 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Wed 50 50 S 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Wed 51 51 S 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Wed 51 51 S 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Wed 50 50 S 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Wed 50 50 S 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Thu 49 49 S 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Thu 49 49 S 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Thu 49 49 S 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Thu 49 49 S 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Thu 49 49 S 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Thu 49 49 S 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 49 49 S 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 49 49 S 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 50 50 S 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 51 51 S 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 53 53 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 53 53 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 53 53 SW 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 54 54 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 54 54 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 54 54 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 53 53 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 50 50 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 48 48 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 48 48 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 48 48 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 49 49 SW 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 48 48 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 47 47 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 46 46 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 46 46 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 45 45 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 45 45 W 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 46 46 N 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 46 46 N 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 45 45 N 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 46 46 N 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 47 47 N 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 48 48 N 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 52 53 NE 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 53 55 NE 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 53 55 NE 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 55 57 NE 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 54 55 NE 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 55 55 NE 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 54 54 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 51 51 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 49 49 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 49 49 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 49 49 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 49 49 N 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 48 48 N 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 47 47 N 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 46 46 N 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 46 46 N 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 45 45 N 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 45 45 N 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 46 46 N 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 46 46 N 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 46 46 N 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 46 46 N 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 48 48 N 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 50 51 N 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 56 57 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 58 60 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 57 59 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 60 62 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 59 60 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 60 61 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 58 58 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 54 54 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 50 50 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 50 50 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 50 50 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 51 51 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 49 49 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 47 47 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 46 46 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 45 45 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 44 44 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 44 44 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 45 45 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 45 45 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 45 45 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 45 45 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 47 47 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 50 50 N 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 56 57 NW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 58 60 NW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 58 60 NW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 61 63 NW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 60 61 NW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 61 61 NW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 59 59 NW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 55 55 NW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 51 51 NW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 51 51 NW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 51 51 NW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 52 52 NW 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 50 50 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 48 48 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 47 47 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 46 46 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 45 45 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 45 45 N 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 46 46 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 46 46 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 46 46 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 46 46 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 48 48 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 50 51 N 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 55 56 N 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 57 59 N 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 57 59 N 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 59 61 N 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 58 60 N 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 59 60 N 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 57 57 N 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 53 53 N 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 49 49 N 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 49 49 N 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 49 49 N 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 50 50 N 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 48 48 NE 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 46 46 NE 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 45 45 NE 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 44 44 NE 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 43 43 NE 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 43 43 NE 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst