Detailed Predictions for: Tiger Mt
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 47.4995, -122.008, 1830
LZ Altitude (f): 180
Sounding

Station:

 KOTX

Date/Time UTC:

 N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Wed 55 55 NE 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 53 53 NE 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 52 52 NE 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 51 51 ENE 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 51 51 NE 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Wed 51 51 ENE 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Wed 50 50 ENE 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Wed 51 51 NE 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Wed 53 53 NNE 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Wed 54 55 N 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Wed 58 61 N 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Wed 60 65 N 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Wed 63 69 NNW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Wed 65 72 N 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Wed 67 74 NNW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Wed 68 74 NNW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Wed 69 74 NNW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Wed 70 73 N 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Wed 70 72 N 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Wed 69 69 N 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Wed 68 68 N 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Wed 61 61 NNE 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Wed 57 57 NNE 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Wed 55 55 NNE 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Thu 54 54 NE 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Thu 53 53 NE 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Thu 51 51 NNE 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Thu 50 50 NE 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Thu 50 50 NE 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Thu 49 49 NE 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 49 49 NE 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 51 51 NE 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 54 55 N 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 57 60 N 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 62 66 N 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 65 70 NNW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 68 74 NNW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 70 76 NNW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 72 78 NNW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 73 78 NNW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 74 78 NNW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 75 78 N 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 74 75 N 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 73 73 N 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 71 71 N 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 67 67 N 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 63 63 N 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 59 59 NNE 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 57 57 NNE 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 55 55 NNE 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 54 54 ENE 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 53 53 ENE 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 53 53 ENE 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 53 53 E 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 54 54 E 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 56 56 E 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 58 58 NW 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 61 62 NW 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 65 67 NW 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 68 72 NW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 71 76 NW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 74 79 NW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 76 81 NW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 77 82 NW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 78 82 NW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 78 80 WNW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 78 79 WNW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 76 76 WNW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 74 74 WNW 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 70 70 WNW 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 65 65 WNW 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 60 60 SW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 57 57 SW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 55 55 SW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 53 53 S 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 52 52 S 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 51 51 S 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 51 51 S 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 51 51 S 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 52 52 S 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 53 54 SSW 10 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 55 57 SSW 10 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 57 60 SSW 10 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 59 64 SW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 62 68 SW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 65 72 SW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 67 74 WSW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 69 75 WSW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 70 75 WSW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 71 74 W 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 71 73 W 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 71 71 W 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 69 69 W 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 65 65 W 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 60 60 W 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 56 56 SSW 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 53 53 SSW 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 52 52 SSW 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 51 51 S 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 50 50 S 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 50 50 S 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 51 51 S 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 52 52 S 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 53 53 S 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 55 56 SW 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 57 59 SW 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 60 64 SW 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 63 69 NW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 66 73 NW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 69 76 NW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 72 79 NW 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 74 80 NW 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 75 80 NW 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 75 78 NNW 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 75 77 NNW 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 75 75 NNW 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 73 73 N 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 69 69 N 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 65 65 N 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 61 61 NE 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 58 58 NE 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 56 56 NE 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 55 55 E 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 54 54 E 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 54 54 E 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 55 55 E 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 56 56 E 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 58 58 E 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 61 62 N 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 64 66 N 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 68 72 N 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 72 78 NNW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 76 83 NNW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 79 86 NNW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 81 88 NNW 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 82 88 NNW 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 82 87 NNW 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 82 85 NNW 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 82 83 NNW 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 80 80 NNW 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 78 78 N 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 74 74 N 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 69 69 N 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]