Detailed Predictions for: Blanchard
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 48.6097, -122.426, 396
LZ Altitude (f): 10
Sounding

Station:

 KOTX

Date/Time UTC:

 N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Wed 56 56 SE 3 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 55 55 SE 2 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 54 54 SE 2 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 53 53 SE 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 53 53 SE 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Wed 53 53 SE 1 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Wed 52 52 SE 1 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Wed 54 54 SSE 1 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Wed 57 58 SW 1 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Wed 58 60 W 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Wed 62 65 W 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Wed 64 69 W 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Wed 68 74 WNW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Wed 69 76 WNW 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Wed 70 77 WNW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Wed 72 78 WNW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Wed 72 77 WNW 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Wed 73 76 WNW 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Wed 72 74 WNW 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Wed 70 70 WNW 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Wed 67 67 NW 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Wed 62 62 NNW 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Wed 60 60 NNW 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Wed 57 57 N 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Thu 57 57 N 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Thu 56 56 N 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Thu 55 55 N 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Thu 54 54 N 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Thu 54 54 NNW 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Thu 54 54 N 0 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 53 53 N 0 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 56 56 N 0 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 58 59 NW 2 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 61 63 NW 2 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 65 68 NW 2 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 68 72 NW 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 72 77 NW 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 73 78 NW 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 75 80 NW 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 77 81 NW 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 77 80 NW 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 78 80 NW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 76 77 NW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 74 74 NW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 71 71 WNW 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 68 68 WNW 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 64 64 WNW 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 61 61 N 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 59 59 N 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 58 58 N 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 57 57 N 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 56 56 N 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 55 55 N 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 55 55 N 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 56 56 N 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 58 58 N 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 60 61 NW 1 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 63 64 NW 1 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 66 68 NW 1 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 69 73 WNW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 72 77 WNW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 74 80 WNW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 76 82 WNW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 78 83 WNW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 79 83 WNW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 79 82 WNW 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 77 78 WNW 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 74 74 WNW 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 70 70 W 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 67 67 W 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 64 64 W 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 61 61 S 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 59 59 S 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 57 57 S 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 56 56 NE 1 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 55 55 NE 1 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 54 54 NE 1 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 54 54 ESE 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 55 55 ESE 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 56 56 ESE 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 58 59 SSE 3 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 60 62 SSE 3 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 63 67 SSE 3 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 66 72 SW 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 69 76 SW 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 71 78 SW 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 73 80 W 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 75 81 W 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 76 81 W 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 76 79 W 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 74 76 W 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 72 72 W 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 69 69 WSW 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 66 66 WSW 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 62 62 WSW 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 59 59 SSE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 57 57 SSE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 56 56 SSE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 55 55 SE 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 54 54 SE 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 54 54 SE 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 55 55 SSE 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 56 56 SSE 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 58 58 SSE 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 60 61 S 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 62 65 S 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 65 69 S 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 68 74 W 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 71 78 W 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 74 81 W 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 76 83 W 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 78 84 W 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 79 84 W 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 79 82 WNW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 77 79 WNW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 74 74 WNW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 70 70 WSW 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 67 67 WSW 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 64 64 WSW 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 62 62 S 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 60 60 S 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 59 59 S 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 58 58 ESE 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 57 57 ESE 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 57 57 ESE 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 57 57 N 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 58 58 N 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 60 60 N 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 63 64 N 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 66 68 N 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 70 74 N 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 73 78 WNW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 76 82 WNW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 79 86 WNW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 81 87 WNW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 83 89 WNW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 84 88 WNW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 84 87 WNW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 82 83 WNW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 78 78 WNW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 74 74 W 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 71 71 W 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 68 68 W 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]