Detailed Predictions for: Inspiration Point
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 40.3011, -111.626, 6700
LZ Altitude (f): 4900
Sounding

Station:

 KSLC

Date/Time UTC:

 N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Wed 69 69 S 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 69 69 S 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 68 68 S 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 67 67 N 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 66 66 N 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Wed 64 64 N 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Wed 64 64 WNW 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Wed 63 63 WNW 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Wed 67 68 WNW 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Wed 69 71 W 8 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Wed 72 76 W 8 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Wed 72 78 W 8 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Wed 74 81 WNW 11 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Wed 76 84 WNW 11 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Wed 77 85 WNW 11 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Wed 78 85 WNW 11 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Wed 79 85 WNW 11 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Wed 77 81 WNW 11 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Wed 77 79 NW 9 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Wed 76 76 NW 9 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Wed 72 72 NW 9 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Wed 70 70 N 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Wed 69 69 N 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Wed 70 70 N 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Thu 69 69 NE 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Thu 68 68 NE 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Thu 66 66 NE 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Thu 63 63 E 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Thu 61 61 E 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Thu 60 60 E 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 59 59 SSE 3 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 60 60 SSE 3 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 61 62 SSE 3 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 65 67 WSW 5 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 67 70 WSW 5 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 68 73 WSW 5 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 70 77 W 8 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 72 80 W 8 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 75 83 W 8 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 76 83 W 8 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 76 82 W 8 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 77 81 W 8 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 78 79 WNW 6 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 76 76 WNW 6 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 72 72 WNW 6 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 69 69 N 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 68 68 N 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 67 67 N 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 67 67 E 3 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 66 66 E 3 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 65 65 E 3 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 64 64 E 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 63 63 E 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 62 62 E 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 62 62 E 4 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 64 64 E 4 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 67 67 E 4 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 70 72 S 3 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 72 75 S 3 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 74 79 S 3 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 76 82 SW 5 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 78 85 SW 5 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 80 87 SW 5 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 81 86 WSW 10 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 82 86 WSW 10 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 82 85 WSW 10 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 81 82 SW 8 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 80 80 SW 8 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 78 78 SW 8 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 75 75 S 6 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 74 74 S 6 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 74 74 S 6 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 74 74 S 9 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 73 73 S 9 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 71 71 S 9 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 69 69 S 10 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 67 67 S 10 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 66 66 S 10 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 66 66 SSE 9 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 66 66 SSE 9 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 67 68 SSE 9 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 68 70 SSW 11 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 69 73 SSW 11 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 70 76 SSW 11 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 71 78 WSW 12 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 72 80 WSW 12 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 73 81 WSW 12 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 73 79 W 11 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 73 77 W 11 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 73 76 W 11 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 72 73 NW 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 70 70 NW 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 68 68 NW 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 66 66 NNW 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 65 65 NNW 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 65 65 NNW 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 64 64 NNE 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 63 63 NNE 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 61 61 NNE 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 60 60 ENE 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 59 59 ENE 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 59 59 ENE 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 59 59 E 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 61 61 E 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 64 65 E 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 66 68 WSW 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 67 71 WSW 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 68 73 WSW 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 69 76 W 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 70 78 W 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 72 80 W 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 73 80 WNW 10 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 74 79 WNW 10 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 74 78 WNW 10 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 73 75 NW 9 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 72 72 NW 9 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 70 70 NW 9 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 68 68 N 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 67 67 N 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 67 67 N 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 66 66 ENE 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 65 65 ENE 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 63 63 ENE 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 62 62 E 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 61 61 E 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 60 60 E 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 61 61 E 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 63 63 E 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 66 67 E 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 69 71 ESE 3 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 71 75 ESE 3 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 72 78 ESE 3 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 73 80 W 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 75 83 W 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 77 85 W 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 78 85 W 9 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 79 85 W 9 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 79 83 W 9 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 78 80 NW 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 76 76 NW 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 73 73 NW 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 70 70 N 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 69 69 N 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]