Detailed Predictions for: Slide Mountain
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 39.31966654775122, -119.8678295108672, 8200
LZ Altitude (f): 6000
Sounding

Station:

 KREV

Date/Time UTC:

 260617/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Wed 63 48 NW 12 19 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 62 47 NW 12 19 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 61 46 NW 10 16 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 60 45 NW 10 16 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 59 44 NW 10 16 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 56 41 WNW 8 12 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 59 44 WNW 8 12 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 61 46 WNW 8 12 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 62 48 WNW 8 12 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 62 50 WNW 8 12 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 63 52 WNW 8 12 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 64 55 ENE 9 12 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 67 59 ENE 9 12 9650 8999 799 Blue 0
1 PM Wed 68 61 ENE 9 12 10752 8999 799 Blue 1
2 PM Wed 69 61 W 12 19 10752 8999 799 Blue 1
3 PM Wed 70 61 W 12 19 10752 8999 799 Blue 1
4 PM Wed 69 58 W 12 19 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 67 54 W 14 23 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 66 52 W 14 23 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 64 49 W 14 23 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 65 50 WNW 13 20 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 64 49 WNW 13 20 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 64 49 WNW 13 20 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 63 48 NNW 10 16 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 62 47 NNW 10 16 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 62 47 NNW 10 16 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 62 47 NNW 9 13 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 60 45 NNW 9 13 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 59 44 NNW 9 13 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 59 44 N 5 9 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 57 42 N 5 9 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 61 46 N 5 9 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 61 47 E 6 10 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 60 48 E 6 10 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 62 51 E 6 10 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 63 54 E 8 12 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 66 58 E 8 12 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 67 60 E 8 12 10329 8999 799 Blue 0
2 PM Thu 68 58 ESE 6 10 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
3 PM Thu 69 58 ESE 6 10 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
4 PM Thu 68 56 ESE 6 10 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
5 PM Thu 67 53 WSW 11 16 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
6 PM Thu 65 50 WSW 11 16 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 64 49 WSW 11 16 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 63 48 W 10 16 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 62 47 W 10 16 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 62 47 W 10 16 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 62 47 W 11 17 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 62 47 W 11 17 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 61 46 W 11 17 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 60 45 W 11 17 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 59 44 W 11 17 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 57 42 W 11 17 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 56 41 W 12 19 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 56 41 W 12 19 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 55 40 W 12 19 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 55 41 W 12 19 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 56 43 W 12 19 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 56 44 W 12 19 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 57 45 W 10 16 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 57 45 W 10 16 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 58 47 W 10 16 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 58 46 W 14 23 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 58 46 W 14 23 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 58 45 W 14 23 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 57 44 WSW 19 29 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 56 42 WSW 19 29 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 54 39 WSW 19 29 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 53 38 W 23 34 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 52 37 W 23 34 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 52 37 W 23 34 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 51 36 W 13 20 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 50 35 W 13 20 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 48 33 W 13 20 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 47 32 W 12 19 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 46 31 W 12 19 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 44 29 W 12 19 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 44 29 W 10 16 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 45 30 W 10 16 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 47 32 W 10 16 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 49 35 W 10 14 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 51 39 W 10 14 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 52 42 W 10 14 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 53 45 WSW 6 10 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 55 48 WSW 6 10 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 56 50 WSW 6 10 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 58 51 WSW 10 16 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 59 51 WSW 10 16 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 60 50 WSW 10 16 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 59 47 W 10 23 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 58 44 W 10 23 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 56 41 W 10 23 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 55 40 W 12 28 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 54 39 W 12 28 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 53 38 W 12 28 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 52 37 W 4 13 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 51 36 W 4 13 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 51 36 W 4 13 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 50 35 W 2 8 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 49 34 W 2 8 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 49 34 W 2 8 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 49 34 WNW 1 6 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 50 35 WNW 1 6 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 52 37 WNW 1 6 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 54 40 NNE 1 9 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 54 42 NNE 1 9 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 54 44 NNE 1 9 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 55 47 ENE 4 13 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 57 50 ENE 4 13 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 59 53 ENE 4 13 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 61 54 E 2 11 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 62 54 E 2 11 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 62 52 E 2 11 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 62 49 WNW 5 16 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 62 48 WNW 5 16 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 61 46 WNW 5 16 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 60 45 W 11 26 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 59 44 W 11 26 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 58 43 W 11 26 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 57 42 W 5 16 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 56 41 W 5 16 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 56 41 W 5 16 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 55 40 W 3 11 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 54 39 W 3 11 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 53 38 W 3 11 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 53 38 WNW 1 6 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 54 39 WNW 1 6 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 55 40 WNW 1 6 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 57 43 NNE 1 9 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 58 46 NNE 1 9 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 58 48 NNE 1 9 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 59 51 E 3 13 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 61 54 E 3 13 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 62 56 E 3 13 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 64 57 ESE 4 14 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 65 57 ESE 4 14 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 65 55 ESE 4 14 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 65 53 W 6 16 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 64 50 W 6 16 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 63 48 W 6 16 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 62 47 W 8 20 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 61 46 W 8 20 8999 8999 799 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 60 45 W 8 20 8999 8999 799 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]