NEWS:

Feb 16, 2021
- Problems getting data from National Weather Service began on Feb 11 impacting operation of the Soaring Predictor software.
The service seems to be working again at about 75% as of this morning, Feb 16.

Backup data is being sourced from WeatherAPI.com however, their free service is limited to 3 days. If you see a three day forecast for your favorite site, thank the WeatherAPI folks. The full 5-day forecasts are receiving input data from the National Weather service (thank them too :-).

Hourly wind gust has been added to the detail page.

RASP and Windgrams should not be impacted


See the southern California RASP Model The detail grid covers the San Diego sites, but the 4km grid covers most of southern California.

Instructional video on reading the RASP Model



Check out the WINDGRAMS


Sounding

Station:

 KNKX

Date/Time UTC:

 260422/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

 NOAA Digital Forecast
Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon
Site
Name		 Wind Above
Launch		 Wind Above
Launch		 Wind Above
Launch		 Wind Above
Launch		 Wind Above
Launch		 Wind Above
Launch
Torrey Pines Gliderport WNW 14 0 W 9 0 SW 12 0 W 12 0 W 11 0 WNW 11 0
Blossom Valley WNW 13 5069 W 10 5314 WSW 12 5430 W 13 3596 W 11 3808 W 10 5069
Horse Canyon NNW 17 2908 NNW 13 3908 WSW 14 4570 WSW 24 2263 W 23 2203 W 13 3037
Little Black WNW 14 3095 W 11 3308 WSW 13 3735 W 14 87 W 12 596 W 11 2768
Marshall SSW 11 2802 NNE 20 3647 SW 16 3476 SSW 27 2467 SSW 23 2569 SW 18 2862
Crestline SSW 11 1371 NNE 18 1721 SW 16 1721 SSW 20 0 SSW 18 1071 SW 13 1422
Mentone W 11 3796 WSW 9 5070 WSW 13 5070 SW 13 3427 WSW 11 3540 WSW 9 3973
Kagel WSW 13 3246 SW 13 4151 SSW 18 3765 SW 26 2416 SW 23 3021 SW 18 3072
Lake Elsinore WSW 16 4165 WSW 13 4706 SW 18 4706 SW 19 3754 WSW 18 4046 WSW 16 4283
Laguna WSW 20 2277 W 11 3588 SW 21 3781 W 26 1184 W 24 1184 W 14 2626
Big Black W 14 2976 WSW 11 3464 WSW 13 3572 WSW 18 2553 W 16 2634 W 13 3036
Otay Mesa WNW 17 4530 WNW 11 4321 WSW 12 4948 W 16 3478 W 13 3689 WNW 13 4321
Soboba W 12 3085 W 10 4147 SSW 16 4584 SW 19 1724 WSW 17 2004 W 14 3298
Henninger Flats WSW 9 3284 WSW 9 3714 SSW 10 3539 SSW 11 1885 SW 9 2959 SW 8 2959
Palomar W 11 2144 W 8 3200 SW 11 3620 WSW 11 1071 WSW 10 1071 W 9 2356
Thomas Mt WNW 17 3238 W 10 5248 W 13 5248 W 18 1863 W 18 1863 W 12 3624
Winchester WNW 11 4025 SSW 11 5000 SSW 18 5059 WSW 16 2742 WSW 13 2958 WSW 12 4238
Blackhawk WNW 23 3179 NNW 9 3764 SW 25 4765 WSW 24 1709 WSW 19 2404 W 12 3179
Ord S 18 2733 SSW 10 4164 SSW 23 4446 SSW 27 2067 SSW 19 2373 SW 14 2888
Warner Springs W 14 1896 WSW 12 2890 SW 16 3225 W 18 1540 W 16 1484 W 13 2183

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst