NEWS:

Feb 16, 2021
- Problems getting data from National Weather Service began on Feb 11 impacting operation of the Soaring Predictor software.
The service seems to be working again at about 75% as of this morning, Feb 16.


Backup data is being sourced from WeatherAPI.com however, their free service is limited to 3 days. If you see a three day forecast for your favorite site, thank the WeatherAPI folks. The full 5-day forecasts are receiving input data from the National Weather service (thank them too :-).

Hourly wind gust has been added to the detail page.

RASP and Windgrams should not be impacted


See the southern California RASP Model The detail grid covers the San Diego sites, but the 4km grid covers most of southern California.

Instructional video on reading the RASP Model



Check out the WINDGRAMS


Sounding

Station:

KNKX (alt)

Date/Time:

23 MAY 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast
Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue
Site
Name
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Wind Above
Launch
Torrey Pines Gliderport SSW 10 0 WSW 10 0 W 10 0 WSW 10 0 W 10 0 WNW 10 0
Blossom Valley WSW 10 2649 WSW 11 2539 SW 9 2238 W 8 2728 W 9 3475 W 8 3823
Horse Canyon WSW 13 3251 W 17 1834 W 15 233
Little Black SW 10 2448 WSW 11 2571 WSW 10 0 WSW 9 2649 W 10 2797 W 9 2902
Marshall SSW 10 856 SSW 12 140 S 11 68 SW 6 1617 SSW 8 2456 SSW 8 3402
Crestline SSW 10 0 SSW 13 0 S 12 0 SSW 8 0 SSW 8 1059 SSW 9 1865
Mentone WSW 8 3178 WSW 10 2095 SSE 8 1736
Kagel SW 12 643 SSW 16 510 SW 9 643 SW 11 1358 SW 11 2116 SSW 11 2793
Lake Elsinore SW 10 1815 WSW 13 1572 SW 13 1444 SW 11 2510 WSW 11 3453 W 10 3603
Laguna WSW 17 2494 WSW 23 805 WSW 23 0 WNW 12 2628 W 10 5921 W 13 9021
Big Black WSW 11 960 WSW 13 490 WSW 13 50 WSW 10 1463 WSW 10 2383 W 10 3459
Otay Mesa WSW 10 2461 W 11 2380 WNW 10 2155 W 10 2461 WNW 10 2758 WNW 10 2837
Soboba SW 11 1823 SW 13 1736 SSW 11 1493 SW 9 2090 WSW 10 2993 W 10 3389
Henninger Flats SSW 10 925 SSW 9 626 S 10 685
Palomar SW 9 765 SW 10 738 SW 9 549 WSW 8 908 WSW 8 1300 WSW 8 1844
Thomas Mt W 11 4959 W 14 2304 W 14 1111 WNW 6 5450 W 8 9732 W 10 10499
Winchester SSW 11 2269 SSW 13 2207 SSW 12 1986 SSW 10 2589 SW 10 3820 WSW 10 4336
Blackhawk WNW 13 8451 WSW 13 5762 WSW 7 5762
Ord SSW 20 4648 SSW 25 1715 SSW 21 1405 SSW 11 3995 SSW 13 6762 SSW 16 8925
Warner Springs WSW 16 921 WSW 19 328 WSW 17 0 WSW 11 1223 W 12 3027 W 12 4333

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst