Detailed Predictions for: Marshall
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.2099918919, -117.302860125, 4040
LZ Altitude (f): 1700
Sounding

Station:

 KNKX

Date/Time UTC:

 N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Mon 72 70 N 17 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 71 69 NNE 17 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 70 68 NNE 19 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 70 68 N 19 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 69 67 N 19 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 69 67 NNE 19 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 68 66 N 19 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 69 67 N 19 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 70 68 NNE 19 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 72 71 N 19 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 76 77 N 19 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 78 80 N 20 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 80 83 N 20 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 82 85 N 21 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 84 86 NNE 18 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 85 86 N 16 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 86 86 N 16 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 85 84 NNE 14 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 83 81 NNE 12 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 79 77 NNE 11 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 76 74 NNE 10 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 74 72 NNE 10 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 73 71 NNE 11 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 72 70 NNE 12 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 72 70 NNE 14 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 72 70 NNE 16 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 71 69 NNE 18 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 72 70 NNE 19 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 71 69 NNE 20 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 71 69 NNE 20 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 72 70 NNE 20 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 72 70 NNE 20 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 73 71 NNE 19 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 77 76 NNE 18 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 81 81 NNE 17 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 84 86 NNE 16 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 86 89 N 14 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 88 91 N 13 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 90 93 N 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 92 94 N 11 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 91 91 N 11 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 91 90 N 10 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 88 86 N 11 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 84 82 N 11 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 80 78 N 11 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 78 76 N 10 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 77 75 NNE 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 76 74 NNE 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 75 73 NNE 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 74 72 NNE 10 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 73 71 NNE 12 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 72 70 NNE 13 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 72 70 NNE 13 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Wed 71 69 NNE 12 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Wed 71 69 NNE 11 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Wed 72 70 NNE 10 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Wed 74 72 NE 9 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Wed 78 77 NE 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Wed 83 84 NNE 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Wed 87 89 NNE 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Wed 90 93 N 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Wed 92 96 W 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Wed 94 97 SW 10 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Wed 95 97 SW 12 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Wed 95 95 WSW 14 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Wed 94 93 WSW 14 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Wed 90 88 WSW 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Wed 86 84 SW 9 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Wed 81 79 SW 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Wed 79 77 W 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Wed 78 76 N 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Wed 77 75 NNE 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Thu 76 74 NNE 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Thu 75 73 NNE 5 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Thu 74 72 NNE 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Thu 74 72 NE 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Thu 73 71 NE 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Thu 72 70 NE 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 73 71 NE 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 73 71 NE 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 75 73 NE 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 79 78 NE 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 83 84 NE 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 87 89 W 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 90 94 W 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 92 96 W 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 93 96 SW 11 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 93 95 SW 11 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 93 93 SW 11 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 94 93 WSW 16 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 91 89 WSW 16 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 87 85 WSW 16 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 83 81 SW 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 80 78 SW 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 78 76 SW 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 76 74 NNE 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 75 73 NNE 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 75 73 NNE 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 74 72 NE 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 74 72 NE 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 73 71 NE 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 73 71 NE 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 73 71 NE 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 74 72 NE 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 76 74 NE 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 79 78 NE 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 84 85 NE 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 88 90 SSW 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 90 93 SSW 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 92 96 SSW 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 93 96 SW 16 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 94 96 SW 16 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 94 94 SW 16 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 92 91 SW 23 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 89 87 SW 23 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 84 82 SW 23 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 80 78 SSW 11 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 78 76 SSW 11 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 76 74 SSW 11 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 75 73 S 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 74 72 S 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 73 71 S 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 73 71 ESE 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 72 70 ESE 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 71 69 ESE 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 71 69 E 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 72 70 E 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 73 71 E 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 74 72 SSE 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 77 76 SSE 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 81 82 SSE 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 84 86 SSW 10 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 86 89 SSW 10 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 88 92 SSW 10 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 89 92 SW 19 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 89 91 SW 19 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 89 89 SW 19 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 88 87 SW 25 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 84 82 SW 25 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 80 78 SW 25 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 76 74 SW 14 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 74 72 SW 14 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 73 71 SW 14 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst