Detailed Predictions for: Lake Elsinore
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 33.6298130238, -117.371441183, 2650
LZ Altitude (f): 1350
Sounding

Station:

KNKX

Date/Time:

27 JAN 2023

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Fri 44 44 NNW 8 14 2156 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 44 44 N 8 14 2156 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 43 43 NNW 9 16 2156 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 43 43 NNW 8 14 2156 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 43 43 N 8 14 2156 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 43 43 NNW 6 13 2156 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 42 42 NNW 6 13 2156 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 41 41 N 5 12 2156 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 44 44 N 5 12 2156 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 49 50 N 5 10 2156 2650 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 53 55 N 5 12 4007 2650 0 Blue 2
11 AM Fri 57 60 N 5 12 4971 4399 1749 Blue 7
12 Noon Fri 59 62 NNW 5 12 5640 4673 2023 Blue 9
1 PM Fri 61 64 NNW 5 10 5918 5258 2608 Blue 11
2 PM Fri 61 63 WNW 5 10 5827 4949 2299 Blue 10
3 PM Fri 62 63 W 5 10 5827 4949 2299 Blue 10
4 PM Fri 61 61 W 5 12 5290 4486 1836 Blue 8
5 PM Fri 56 56 W 5 12 4269 2650 0 Blue 3
6 PM Fri 53 53 W 5 10 2642 2650 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 51 51 NW 4 9 2156 2650 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 50 50 SSW 4 9 2156 2650 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 49 49 S 4 9 2156 2650 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 48 48 SSE 4 9 2156 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 47 47 S 4 9 2156 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 46 46 SSW 4 9 2156 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 45 45 S 4 9 2156 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 44 44 S 5 10 2156 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 44 44 S 5 10 2156 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 43 43 S 5 10 2156 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 42 42 S 5 10 2156 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 41 41 S 5 12 2156 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 41 41 S 5 10 2156 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 44 44 S 5 10 2156 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 47 48 SSE 5 12 2156 2650 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 51 52 S 5 12 2156 2650 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 53 55 S 5 12 4007 2650 0 Blue 2
12 Noon Sat 55 57 S 6 13 4404 3395 745 Blue 4
1 PM Sat 56 58 S 8 14 4491 3995 1345 Blue 5
2 PM Sat 55 56 S 9 16 4269 2650 0 Blue 3
3 PM Sat 55 56 SSW 9 16 4269 2650 0 Blue 3
4 PM Sat 54 54 SSW 10 17 3418 2650 0 Blue 1
5 PM Sat 52 52 SSW 10 17 2156 2650 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 50 50 S 10 17 2156 2650 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 48 48 S 10 17 2156 2650 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 47 47 S 10 17 2156 2650 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 47 47 S 10 17 2156 2650 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 47 47 S 10 18 2156 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 47 47 S 11 19 2156 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 46 46 S 12 20 2156 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 46 46 S 12 20 2156 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 46 46 S 12 20 2156 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 46 46 S 11 19 2156 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 46 46 SSW 11 18 2156 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 46 46 SSW 10 18 2156 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 45 45 SSW 10 17 2156 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 45 45 SSW 9 17 2156 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 44 44 SSW 10 17 2156 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 44 44 SSW 10 18 2156 2650 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 44 44 SSW 11 19 2156 2650 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 44 44 SSW 12 20 2156 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 45 46 SW 12 20 2156 2650 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 45 45 SW 12 20 2156 2650 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sun 45 45 SW 12 20 2156 2650 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sun 44 44 SW 12 20 2156 2650 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sun 44 44 WSW 11 19 2156 2650 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sun 44 44 WSW 11 18 2156 2650 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 44 44 WSW 10 18 2156 2650 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 44 44 WSW 10 17 2156 2650 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 44 44 WSW 10 17 2156 2650 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 44 44 SW 10 18 2156 2650 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 45 45 SW 11 19 2156 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 45 45 SW 11 19 2156 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 44 44 SW 11 19 2156 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 44 44 WSW 9 16 2156 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 43 43 WSW 9 16 2156 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 43 43 WSW 9 16 2156 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 42 42 S 5 12 2156 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 42 42 S 5 12 2156 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 41 41 S 5 12 2156 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 41 41 E 5 11 2156 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 41 41 E 5 11 2156 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 42 42 E 5 11 2156 2650 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 42 42 SSE 5 11 2156 2650 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 43 44 SSE 5 11 2156 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 44 45 SSE 5 11 2156 2650 0 Blue 0
1 PM Mon 44 45 SSE 5 10 2156 2650 0 Blue 0
2 PM Mon 44 44 SSE 5 10 2156 2650 0 Blue 0
3 PM Mon 44 44 SSE 5 10 2156 2650 0 Blue 0
4 PM Mon 43 43 E 8 14 2156 2650 0 Blue 0
5 PM Mon 43 43 E 8 14 2156 2650 0 Blue 0
6 PM Mon 42 42 E 8 14 2156 2650 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 42 42 SE 5 11 2156 2650 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 41 41 SE 5 11 2156 2650 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 41 41 SE 5 11 2156 2650 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 41 41 SW 3 8 2156 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Mon 40 40 SW 3 8 2156 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Tue 40 40 SW 3 8 2156 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 39 39 NW 8 13 2156 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 39 39 NW 8 13 2156 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 39 39 NW 8 13 2156 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 39 39 NW 8 14 2156 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 38 38 NW 8 14 2156 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 37 37 NW 8 14 2156 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 37 37 NW 9 16 2156 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 38 38 NW 9 16 2156 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 41 42 NW 9 16 2156 2650 0 Blue 0
10 AM Tue 43 45 NNW 8 13 2156 2650 0 Blue 0
11 AM Tue 45 47 NNW 8 13 2156 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Tue 47 50 NNW 8 13 2156 2650 0 Blue 0
1 PM Tue 48 50 NNW 6 12 2156 2650 0 Blue 0
2 PM Tue 48 50 NNW 6 12 2156 2650 0 Blue 0
3 PM Tue 48 49 NNW 6 12 2156 2650 0 Blue 0
4 PM Tue 47 47 NNW 10 18 2156 2650 0 Blue 0
5 PM Tue 46 46 NNW 10 18 2156 2650 0 Blue 0
6 PM Tue 44 44 NNW 10 18 2156 2650 0 Blue 0
7 PM Tue 43 43 NW 8 14 2156 2650 0 Blue 0
8 PM Tue 42 42 NW 8 14 2156 2650 0 Blue 0
9 PM Tue 41 41 NW 8 14 2156 2650 0 Blue 0
10 PM Tue 40 40 NW 6 12 2156 2650 0 Blue 0
11 PM Tue 40 40 NW 6 12 2156 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Wed 39 39 NW 6 12 2156 2650 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 38 38 NW 6 12 2156 2650 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 38 38 NW 6 12 2156 2650 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 38 38 NW 6 12 2156 2650 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 37 37 NW 8 14 2156 2650 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 36 36 NW 8 14 2156 2650 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 36 36 NW 8 14 2156 2650 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 37 37 NW 8 13 2156 2650 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 39 39 NW 8 13 2156 2650 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 43 44 NW 8 13 2156 2650 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 46 48 NNW 5 11 2156 2650 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 49 52 NNW 5 11 2156 2650 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 51 54 NNW 5 11 3418 2650 0 Blue 1
1 PM Wed 53 56 WNW 4 10 4269 2650 0 Blue 3
2 PM Wed 53 55 WNW 4 10 4007 2650 0 Blue 2
3 PM Wed 53 54 WNW 4 10 3418 2650 0 Blue 1
4 PM Wed 52 52 WSW 9 17 2156 2650 0 Blue 0
5 PM Wed 50 50 WSW 9 17 2156 2650 0 Blue 0
6 PM Wed 48 48 WSW 9 17 2156 2650 0 Blue 0
7 PM Wed 46 46 W 6 12 2156 2650 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 45 45 W 6 12 2156 2650 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 44 44 W 6 12 2156 2650 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 44 44 W 3 8 2156 2650 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst