Detailed Predictions for: Crestline
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.2359889702, -117.312661227, 5200
LZ Altitude (f): 1700
Sounding

Station:

 KNKX

Date/Time UTC:

 N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Mon 63 61 NNE 14 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 63 61 NNE 14 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 62 60 NNE 16 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 61 59 NNE 14 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 61 59 NNE 14 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 60 58 NNE 16 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 60 58 N 16 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 60 58 N 17 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 60 58 N 17 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 63 62 N 18 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 66 67 N 19 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 69 71 N 19 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 71 74 N 20 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 73 76 N 20 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 75 77 N 18 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 75 76 N 17 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 75 75 N 17 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 75 74 NNE 17 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 72 70 NNE 14 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 70 68 NNE 13 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 67 65 NNE 13 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 66 64 NNE 13 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 65 63 NNE 13 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 65 63 NNE 13 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 65 63 NNE 14 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 65 63 NNE 16 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 64 62 NNE 17 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 64 62 NNE 17 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 64 62 NNE 17 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 63 61 NNE 17 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 64 62 NNE 17 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 64 62 NNE 17 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 65 63 NNE 17 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 69 68 NNE 17 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 71 71 N 17 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 75 77 N 16 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 77 80 N 16 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 79 82 N 14 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 81 84 N 14 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 82 84 N 13 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 81 81 N 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 81 80 N 11 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 78 76 N 10 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 75 73 N 10 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 72 70 N 9 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 71 69 N 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 70 68 NNE 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 69 67 NNE 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 68 66 NNE 9 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 67 65 NNE 11 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 67 65 NNE 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 66 64 NNE 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 65 63 NNE 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Wed 64 62 NNE 11 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Wed 64 62 NNE 10 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Wed 65 63 NE 9 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Wed 67 65 NE 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Wed 71 70 NNE 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Wed 75 76 NNE 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Wed 80 82 N 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Wed 82 85 NNW 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Wed 84 88 W 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Wed 84 87 SW 9 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Wed 85 87 SW 10 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Wed 85 85 WSW 11 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Wed 84 83 WSW 11 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Wed 80 78 WSW 9 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Wed 76 74 SW 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Wed 73 71 SW 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Wed 71 69 W 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Wed 70 68 N 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Wed 70 68 NNE 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Thu 69 67 NNE 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Thu 68 66 NNE 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Thu 67 65 NNE 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Thu 66 64 NNE 5 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Thu 65 63 NE 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Thu 65 63 NE 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 64 62 NE 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 65 63 NE 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 67 65 NNE 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 70 69 NNE 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 75 76 NNE 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 79 81 NNW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 81 84 NNW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 83 87 NNW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 84 87 SW 9 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 83 85 SW 9 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 83 83 SW 9 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 83 82 WSW 11 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 80 78 WSW 11 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 76 74 WSW 11 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 72 70 SW 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 70 68 SW 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 69 67 SW 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 68 66 NNE 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 68 66 NNE 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 67 65 NNE 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 67 65 NNE 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 66 64 NNE 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 66 64 NNE 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 65 63 NE 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 66 64 NE 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 66 64 NE 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 68 66 NNE 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 72 71 NNE 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 76 77 NNE 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 80 82 SW 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 82 85 SW 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 83 87 SW 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 84 87 SW 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 84 86 SW 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 84 84 SW 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 82 81 SW 16 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 79 77 SW 16 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 75 73 SW 16 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 72 70 SSW 10 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 70 68 SSW 10 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 68 66 SSW 10 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 67 65 S 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 66 64 S 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 65 63 S 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 64 62 ESE 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 63 61 ESE 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 62 60 ESE 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 62 60 ESE 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 62 60 ESE 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 63 61 ESE 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 65 63 SSE 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 68 67 SSE 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 72 73 SSE 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 76 78 SSW 10 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 78 81 SSW 10 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 80 84 SSW 10 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 80 83 SW 14 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 81 83 SW 14 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 80 80 SW 14 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 78 77 SW 17 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 75 73 SW 17 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 72 70 SW 17 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 69 67 SW 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 67 65 SW 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 65 63 SW 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst