Detailed Predictions for: Woodrat Mountain
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 42.2317, -123.004, 3700
LZ Altitude (f): 1700
Sounding

Station:

 KMFR

Date/Time UTC:

 N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Wed 67 67 W 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 66 66 W 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 64 64 WNW 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 61 61 WNW 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 59 59 WNW 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Wed 58 58 W 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Wed 56 56 W 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Wed 58 58 W 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Wed 60 61 WNW 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Wed 62 64 WNW 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Wed 67 71 WNW 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Wed 69 75 N 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Wed 73 81 N 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Wed 77 85 N 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Wed 81 89 N 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Wed 83 89 N 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Wed 83 88 N 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Wed 84 87 NNW 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Wed 83 84 NNW 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Wed 82 82 NNW 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Wed 79 79 WNW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Wed 70 70 WNW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Wed 67 67 WNW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Wed 65 65 W 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Thu 64 64 W 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Thu 63 63 W 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Thu 61 61 W 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Thu 59 59 W 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Thu 58 58 W 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Thu 57 57 W 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 55 55 W 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 57 57 W 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 60 60 WNW 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 62 62 WNW 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 67 68 WNW 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 70 75 WNW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 74 80 WNW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 78 84 WNW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 83 91 WNW 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 85 92 WNW 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 85 90 WNW 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 87 90 NW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 87 89 NW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 86 86 NW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 83 83 NNW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 78 78 NNW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 73 73 NNW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 68 68 WNW 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 65 65 WNW 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 64 64 WNW 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 63 63 SW 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 61 61 SW 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 59 59 SW 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 58 58 SSW 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 59 59 SSW 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 60 60 SSW 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 62 62 NNW 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 64 65 NNW 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 66 68 NNW 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 69 72 NNW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 72 75 NNW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 75 79 NNW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 77 81 NW 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 78 81 NW 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 79 81 NW 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 78 79 NW 10 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 78 78 NW 10 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 76 76 NW 10 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 74 74 NW 11 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 71 71 NW 11 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 67 67 NW 11 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 64 64 NW 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 62 62 NW 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 60 60 NW 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 58 58 NW 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 56 56 NW 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 55 55 NW 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 54 54 WNW 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 53 53 WNW 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 54 54 WNW 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 55 56 N 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 58 60 N 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 61 65 N 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 65 71 NNW 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 68 75 NNW 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 71 79 NNW 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 74 82 NNW 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 76 83 NNW 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 77 82 NNW 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 76 79 NW 10 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 75 77 NW 10 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 74 74 NW 10 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 72 72 NNW 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 69 69 NNW 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 65 65 NNW 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 61 61 NNW 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 58 58 NNW 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 57 57 NNW 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 55 55 W 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 53 53 W 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 52 52 W 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 51 51 SE 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 52 52 SE 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 53 53 SE 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 56 57 N 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 59 62 N 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 62 67 N 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 66 72 N 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 70 78 N 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 74 82 N 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 77 85 NNW 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 79 86 NNW 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 80 85 NNW 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 80 83 NNW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 80 82 NNW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 78 78 NNW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 76 76 NNW 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 72 72 NNW 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 68 68 NNW 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 64 64 WNW 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 61 61 WNW 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 59 59 WNW 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 58 58 SSE 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 56 56 SSE 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 55 55 SSE 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 55 55 SSE 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 56 56 SSE 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 58 58 SSE 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 61 62 NNE 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 64 67 NNE 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 67 72 NNE 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 71 77 N 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 75 83 N 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 79 87 N 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 82 90 NNW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 84 91 NNW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 85 90 NNW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 85 88 NW 9 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 85 87 NW 9 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 83 83 NW 9 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 81 81 NNW 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 78 78 NNW 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 74 74 NNW 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]