Detailed Predictions for: Weaver Bally
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 40.796231, -123.00509, 6900
LZ Altitude (f): 1480
Sounding

Station:

 KMFR

Date/Time UTC:

 N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Wed 74 74 NNE 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 72 72 NNE 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 70 70 NE 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 68 68 NE 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 67 67 NE 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Wed 66 66 ENE 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Wed 67 67 ENE 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Wed 65 65 ENE 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Wed 70 71 E 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Wed 71 73 E 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Wed 70 74 E 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Wed 71 75 SE 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Wed 73 78 SE 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Wed 74 80 SE 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Wed 77 82 SSW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Wed 78 82 SSW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Wed 79 82 SSW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Wed 79 81 WSW 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Wed 78 79 WSW 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Wed 77 77 WSW 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Wed 79 79 WNW 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Wed 78 78 WNW 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Wed 78 78 WNW 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Wed 75 75 NE 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Thu 75 75 NE 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Thu 73 73 NE 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Thu 71 71 ENE 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Thu 68 68 ENE 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Thu 67 67 ENE 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Thu 66 66 ENE 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 67 67 ENE 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 65 65 ENE 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 70 71 ESE 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 69 72 ESE 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 69 73 ESE 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 70 76 SSE 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 72 80 SSE 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 74 82 SSE 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 76 84 S 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 77 84 S 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 77 82 S 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 78 80 WSW 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 76 77 WSW 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 75 75 WSW 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 77 77 SSW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 77 77 SSW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 75 75 SSW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 73 73 ENE 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 71 71 ENE 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 69 69 ENE 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 67 67 ENE 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 65 65 ENE 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 63 63 ENE 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 62 62 E 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 62 62 E 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 64 64 E 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 64 64 E 10 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 63 64 E 10 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 62 64 E 10 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 61 65 SE 10 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 63 67 SE 10 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 65 70 SE 10 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 67 72 SE 10 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 68 72 SE 10 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 67 70 SE 10 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 67 69 S 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 67 68 S 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 67 67 S 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 67 67 SW 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 66 66 SW 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 65 65 SW 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 64 64 N 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 63 63 N 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 62 62 N 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 60 60 ENE 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 59 59 ENE 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 57 57 ENE 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 56 56 ENE 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 57 57 ENE 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 59 59 ENE 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 60 61 ESE 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 60 63 ESE 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 60 64 ESE 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 61 67 SSE 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 63 71 SSE 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 65 73 SSE 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 67 75 S 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 68 75 S 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 68 73 S 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 68 71 WSW 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 68 69 WSW 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 68 68 WSW 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 67 67 W 11 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 66 66 W 11 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 65 65 W 11 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 63 63 NW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 62 62 NW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 61 61 NW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 60 60 N 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 58 58 N 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 57 57 N 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 57 57 NNE 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 59 59 NNE 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 61 61 NNE 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 63 64 ENE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 64 67 ENE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 65 70 ENE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 66 73 SSE 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 68 76 SSE 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 70 78 SSE 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 71 79 SSW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 72 79 SSW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 72 77 SSW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 72 75 W 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 72 74 W 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 72 72 W 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 71 71 W 12 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 70 70 W 12 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 68 68 W 12 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 66 66 NNW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 65 65 NNW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 64 64 NNW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 62 62 NNE 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 61 61 NNE 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 59 59 NNE 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 59 59 NNE 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 60 60 NNE 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 62 62 NNE 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 65 66 E 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 66 69 E 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 66 71 E 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 67 74 SE 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 70 78 SE 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 72 80 SE 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 74 82 S 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 75 82 S 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 75 80 S 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 75 78 S 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 75 77 S 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 75 75 S 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 74 74 WSW 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 73 73 WSW 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 72 72 WSW 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]