Detailed Predictions for: Jean Ridge
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 35.8093, -115.2139, 3304
LZ Altitude (f): 2844
Sounding

Station:

 KREV

Date/Time UTC:

 260617/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Wed 84 84 SW 10 16 5281 4974 1670 Blue 18041
1 AM Wed 82 82 SW 9 13 4974 4974 1670 Blue 18039
2 AM Wed 80 80 SW 9 13 4974 4974 1670 Blue 18037
3 AM Wed 78 78 SW 9 13 4974 4974 1670 Blue 18035
4 AM Wed 77 77 SW 10 13 4974 4974 1670 Blue 18034
5 AM Wed 76 76 SW 10 13 4974 4974 1670 Blue 18033
6 AM Wed 74 74 SW 10 14 4974 4974 1670 Blue 18031
7 AM Wed 77 77 SW 10 16 4974 4974 1670 Blue 18034
8 AM Wed 82 84 SW 11 17 5281 4974 1670 Blue 18041
9 AM Wed 85 89 SW 12 18 7491 5478 2174 Blue 18046
10 AM Wed 92 98 WSW 13 18 11155 10602 7298 Blue 18054
11 AM Wed 95 103 WSW 13 19 14132 11730 8426 Blue 18059
12 Noon Wed 98 107 WSW 13 19 17310 14836 11532 Blue 18063
1 PM Wed 100 109 WSW 12 19 18491 16364 13060 Blue 18065
2 PM Wed 100 108 WSW 12 18 17958 15677 12373 Blue 18064
3 PM Wed 101 107 SW 11 18 17310 14836 11532 Blue 18063
4 PM Wed 100 104 WSW 11 17 15277 12067 8763 Blue 18060
5 PM Wed 99 101 WSW 11 17 12268 11121 7817 Blue 18057
6 PM Wed 98 99 WSW 10 16 11482 10831 7527 Blue 18055
7 PM Wed 96 96 WSW 10 16 10874 9487 6183 Blue 18052
8 PM Wed 93 93 SW 9 14 9607 7791 4487 Blue 18050
9 PM Wed 89 89 SW 9 14 7491 5478 2174 Blue 18046
10 PM Wed 86 86 SW 10 16 5485 5173 1869 Blue 18043
11 PM Wed 84 84 SW 10 16 5281 4974 1670 Blue 18041
12 Midnight Thu 82 82 SW 9 13 4974 4974 1670 Blue 18039
1 AM Thu 79 79 SW 9 12 4974 4974 1670 Blue 18036
2 AM Thu 77 77 SW 8 11 4974 4974 1670 Blue 18034
3 AM Thu 75 75 SW 6 11 4974 4974 1670 Blue 18032
4 AM Thu 74 74 SW 6 10 4974 4974 1670 Blue 18031
5 AM Thu 73 73 SW 6 10 4974 4974 1670 Blue 18030
6 AM Thu 71 71 WSW 6 10 4974 4974 1670 Blue 18028
7 AM Thu 75 75 SW 5 10 4974 4974 1670 Blue 18032
8 AM Thu 79 81 SW 5 10 4974 4974 1670 Blue 18038
9 AM Thu 83 87 SSW 6 11 5588 5274 1970 Blue 18044
10 AM Thu 90 96 S 9 13 10874 9487 6183 Blue 18052
11 AM Thu 92 100 S 9 14 11823 10987 7683 Blue 18056
12 Noon Thu 95 104 S 9 16 15277 12067 8763 Blue 18060
1 PM Thu 98 107 S 10 16 17310 14836 11532 Blue 18063
2 PM Thu 99 107 S 10 17 17310 14836 11532 Blue 18063
3 PM Thu 99 105 S 11 17 15969 12874 9570 Blue 18061
4 PM Thu 99 103 S 11 17 14132 11730 8426 Blue 18059
5 PM Thu 97 99 S 11 16 11482 10831 7527 Blue 18055
6 PM Thu 96 97 S 10 16 11020 10074 6770 Blue 18053
7 PM Thu 93 93 S 10 16 9607 7791 4487 Blue 18050
8 PM Thu 90 90 S 10 16 7841 5579 2275 Blue 18047
9 PM Thu 87 87 S 10 14 5588 5274 1970 Blue 18044
10 PM Thu 84 84 SSW 9 13 5281 4974 1670 Blue 18041
11 PM Thu 81 81 SSW 8 11 4974 4974 1670 Blue 18038
12 Midnight Fri 78 78 SSW 6 10 4974 4974 1670 Blue 18035
1 AM Fri 76 76 SW 4 8 4974 4974 1670 Blue 18033
2 AM Fri 74 74 SW 3 6 4974 4974 1670 Blue 18031
3 AM Fri 71 71 SW 2 5 4974 4974 1670 Blue 18028
4 AM Fri 69 69 SSW 2 5 4974 4974 1670 Blue 18026
5 AM Fri 69 69 SSW 2 4 4974 4974 1670 Blue 18026
6 AM Fri 71 71 SSW 1 2 4974 4974 1670 Blue 18028
7 AM Fri 74 74 S 0 1 4974 4974 1670 Blue 18031
8 AM Fri 78 80 S 0 2 4974 4974 1670 Blue 18037
9 AM Fri 82 86 S 3 6 5485 5173 1869 Blue 18043
10 AM Fri 86 92 S 8 12 8995 7444 4140 Blue 18049
11 AM Fri 90 98 S 11 18 11155 10602 7298 Blue 18054
12 Noon Fri 93 102 S 12 20 13160 11391 8087 Blue 18058
1 PM Fri 95 104 S 13 20 15277 12067 8763 Blue 18060
2 PM Fri 96 104 S 13 20 15277 12067 8763 Blue 18060
3 PM Fri 96 102 SSW 13 20 13160 11391 8087 Blue 18058
4 PM Fri 95 99 SSW 13 20 11482 10831 7527 Blue 18055
5 PM Fri 94 96 SSW 13 20 10874 9487 6183 Blue 18052
6 PM Fri 93 94 SSW 12 19 10210 8307 5003 Blue 18051
7 PM Fri 91 91 SSW 11 17 8404 6251 2947 Blue 18048
8 PM Fri 88 88 SSW 10 16 6322 5376 2072 Blue 18045
9 PM Fri 85 85 SSW 10 16 5383 4974 1670 Blue 18042
10 PM Fri 81 81 SW 11 16 4974 4974 1670 Blue 18038
11 PM Fri 78 78 SW 11 16 4974 4974 1670 Blue 18035
12 Midnight Sat 75 75 SW 10 14 4974 4974 1670 Blue 18032
1 AM Sat 72 72 SSW 9 12 4974 4974 1670 Blue 18029
2 AM Sat 70 70 SSW 8 11 4974 4974 1670 Blue 18027
3 AM Sat 68 68 SSW 8 10 4974 4974 1670 Blue 18025
4 AM Sat 66 66 SW 8 10 4974 4974 1670 Blue 18023
5 AM Sat 66 66 SW 8 10 4974 4974 1670 Blue 18023
6 AM Sat 67 67 SW 8 10 4974 4974 1670 Blue 18024
7 AM Sat 69 69 SW 6 9 4974 4974 1670 Blue 18026
8 AM Sat 72 74 SW 6 10 4974 4974 1670 Blue 18031
9 AM Sat 77 81 SW 8 12 4974 4974 1670 Blue 18038
10 AM Sat 82 88 SW 9 14 6322 5376 2072 Blue 18045
11 AM Sat 87 95 SW 10 17 10701 8890 5586 Blue 18052
12 Noon Sat 90 99 SW 11 18 11482 10831 7527 Blue 18055
1 PM Sat 93 102 SW 11 19 13160 11391 8087 Blue 18058
2 PM Sat 94 102 SW 12 20 13160 11391 8087 Blue 18058
3 PM Sat 94 100 SW 12 20 11823 10987 7683 Blue 18056
4 PM Sat 93 97 WSW 13 20 11020 10074 6770 Blue 18053
5 PM Sat 92 94 WSW 13 20 10210 8307 5003 Blue 18051
6 PM Sat 90 91 WSW 12 18 8404 6251 2947 Blue 18048
7 PM Sat 88 88 SW 11 16 6322 5376 2072 Blue 18045
8 PM Sat 86 86 SW 10 14 5485 5173 1869 Blue 18043
9 PM Sat 83 83 SW 10 13 5179 4974 1670 Blue 18040
10 PM Sat 79 79 SW 9 13 4974 4974 1670 Blue 18036
11 PM Sat 76 76 SW 9 12 4974 4974 1670 Blue 18033
12 Midnight Sun 73 73 SW 8 11 4974 4974 1670 Blue 18030
1 AM Sun 71 71 SW 8 10 4974 4974 1670 Blue 18028
2 AM Sun 69 69 SW 6 9 4974 4974 1670 Blue 18026
3 AM Sun 67 67 SW 5 9 4974 4974 1670 Blue 18024
4 AM Sun 66 66 SW 5 8 4974 4974 1670 Blue 18023
5 AM Sun 66 66 SW 4 8 4974 4974 1670 Blue 18023
6 AM Sun 68 68 SW 3 6 4974 4974 1670 Blue 18025
7 AM Sun 72 72 SW 2 5 4974 4974 1670 Blue 18029
8 AM Sun 76 78 SW 1 4 4974 4974 1670 Blue 18035
9 AM Sun 80 84 SSW 1 4 5281 4974 1670 Blue 18041
10 AM Sun 84 90 SSE 2 5 7841 5579 2275 Blue 18047
11 AM Sun 87 95 SE 3 6 10701 8890 5586 Blue 18052
12 Noon Sun 90 99 SE 4 8 11482 10831 7527 Blue 18055
1 PM Sun 93 102 SSE 4 10 13160 11391 8087 Blue 18058
2 PM Sun 95 103 SSE 5 11 14132 11730 8426 Blue 18059
3 PM Sun 96 103 SSE 6 12 14132 11730 8426 Blue 18059
4 PM Sun 95 99 S 8 12 11482 10831 7527 Blue 18055
5 PM Sun 94 96 SSW 9 12 10874 9487 6183 Blue 18052
6 PM Sun 92 93 SSW 9 13 9607 7791 4487 Blue 18050
7 PM Sun 90 90 SW 9 13 7841 5579 2275 Blue 18047
8 PM Sun 87 87 SW 9 13 5588 5274 1970 Blue 18044
9 PM Sun 84 84 SW 8 12 5281 4974 1670 Blue 18041
10 PM Sun 81 81 SSW 6 11 4974 4974 1670 Blue 18038
11 PM Sun 78 78 SSW 5 9 4974 4974 1670 Blue 18035
12 Midnight Mon 75 75 SSW 4 8 4974 4974 1670 Blue 18032
1 AM Mon 72 72 SW 4 6 4974 4974 1670 Blue 18029
2 AM Mon 70 70 SW 3 5 4974 4974 1670 Blue 18027
3 AM Mon 68 68 SW 3 5 4974 4974 1670 Blue 18025
4 AM Mon 67 67 SW 2 4 4974 4974 1670 Blue 18024
5 AM Mon 67 67 SW 2 4 4974 4974 1670 Blue 18024
6 AM Mon 70 70 SSW 1 3 4974 4974 1670 Blue 18027
7 AM Mon 74 74 SSE 0 2 4974 4974 1670 Blue 18031
8 AM Mon 78 80 SE 0 2 4974 4974 1670 Blue 18037
9 AM Mon 82 86 SE 1 3 5485 5173 1869 Blue 18043
10 AM Mon 86 92 ESE 2 5 8995 7444 4140 Blue 18049
11 AM Mon 89 97 ESE 3 8 11020 10074 6770 Blue 18053
12 Noon Mon 92 101 SE 4 9 12268 11121 7817 Blue 18057
1 PM Mon 95 104 SE 4 10 15277 12067 8763 Blue 18060
2 PM Mon 97 105 SSE 5 11 15969 12874 9570 Blue 18061
3 PM Mon 98 105 SSE 6 11 15969 12874 9570 Blue 18061
4 PM Mon 97 101 S 6 11 12268 11121 7817 Blue 18057
5 PM Mon 96 98 S 6 11 11155 10602 7298 Blue 18054
6 PM Mon 94 95 S 6 11 10701 8890 5586 Blue 18052
7 PM Mon 92 92 S 5 10 8995 7444 4140 Blue 18049
8 PM Mon 89 89 S 5 10 7491 5478 2174 Blue 18046
9 PM Mon 86 86 SSW 5 10 5485 5173 1869 Blue 18043
10 PM Mon 83 83 SSW 6 10 5179 4974 1670 Blue 18040

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]