Detailed Predictions for: Jean Ridge
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 35.8093, -115.2139, 3304
LZ Altitude (f): 2844
Sounding

Station:

KREV

Date/Time:

11 JUL 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Thu 90 90 SW 5 11 5365 5015 1711 Blue 6
1 AM Thu 88 88 SSW 5 11 5029 4991 1687 Blue 4
2 AM Thu 87 87 SSW 5 10 5016 4978 1674 Blue 3
3 AM Thu 85 85 SSW 5 10 4992 4974 1670 Blue 1
4 AM Thu 84 84 SW 4 9 4979 4974 1670 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 83 83 SSW 4 8 0 3304 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 82 82 SW 3 6 0 3304 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 84 84 SW 2 5 4979 4974 1670 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 90 91 SW 2 4 5558 5028 1724 Blue 7
9 AM Thu 94 96 SW 2 5 7131 6045 2741 Blue 12
10 AM Thu 101 105 ESE 2 6 11105 9364 6060 Blue 21
11 AM Thu 104 110 ENE 2 6 17611 11938 8634 Blue 26
12 Noon Thu 107 114 ENE 3 8 19445 17813 14509 Blue 30
1 PM Thu 110 118 ESE 3 9 25026 20028 16724 Blue 34
2 PM Thu 110 117 SSW 4 10 24290 18984 15680 Blue 33
3 PM Thu 110 115 SW 5 11 21833 17945 14641 Blue 31
4 PM Thu 111 115 W 5 11 21833 17945 14641 Blue 31
5 PM Thu 109 111 W 5 12 17882 14943 11639 Blue 27
6 PM Thu 108 109 WSW 5 11 17201 11464 8160 Blue 25
7 PM Thu 107 107 W 5 11 12076 10474 7170 Blue 23
8 PM Thu 101 101 WSW 5 11 8922 7459 4155 Blue 17
9 PM Thu 97 97 SW 5 11 7307 6393 3089 Blue 13
10 PM Thu 93 93 SSW 5 11 6080 5348 2044 Blue 9
11 PM Thu 93 93 SW 5 11 6080 5348 2044 Blue 9
12 Midnight Fri 90 90 SW 5 10 5365 5015 1711 Blue 6
1 AM Fri 89 89 SW 5 10 5150 5003 1699 Blue 5
2 AM Fri 88 88 SSW 5 10 5029 4991 1687 Blue 4
3 AM Fri 86 86 SSW 4 9 5004 4974 1670 Blue 2
4 AM Fri 85 85 SW 4 8 4992 4974 1670 Blue 1
5 AM Fri 83 83 WSW 3 8 0 3304 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 81 81 SW 3 6 0 3304 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 84 84 WSW 2 6 4979 4974 1670 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 89 90 W 2 6 5365 5015 1711 Blue 6
9 AM Fri 94 96 SW 2 6 7131 6045 2741 Blue 12
10 AM Fri 99 102 SE 3 8 9483 7736 4432 Blue 18
11 AM Fri 103 108 E 4 9 15775 10977 7673 Blue 24
12 Noon Fri 106 112 ESE 4 10 18009 16678 13374 Blue 28
1 PM Fri 109 115 SE 5 11 21833 17945 14641 Blue 31
2 PM Fri 110 116 SE 5 12 23102 18095 14791 Blue 32
3 PM Fri 110 115 SSE 6 12 21833 17945 14641 Blue 31
4 PM Fri 110 114 S 6 13 19445 17813 14509 Blue 30
5 PM Fri 108 110 S 8 13 17611 11938 8634 Blue 26
6 PM Fri 106 107 S 8 13 12076 10474 7170 Blue 23
7 PM Fri 103 103 S 8 14 10053 8271 4967 Blue 19
8 PM Fri 100 100 SSE 8 14 8361 7283 3979 Blue 16
9 PM Fri 97 97 S 6 14 7307 6393 3089 Blue 13
10 PM Fri 95 95 SSW 6 13 6779 5683 2379 Blue 11
11 PM Fri 92 92 SSW 5 12 5694 5138 1834 Blue 8
12 Midnight Sat 90 90 SSW 5 11 5365 5015 1711 Blue 6
1 AM Sat 88 88 SSW 4 10 5029 4991 1687 Blue 4
2 AM Sat 86 86 SSW 4 9 5004 4974 1670 Blue 2
3 AM Sat 84 84 SSW 3 8 4979 4974 1670 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 82 82 SSW 3 6 0 3304 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 82 82 SSW 3 6 0 3304 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 83 83 SSW 4 8 0 3304 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 85 85 S 4 9 4992 4974 1670 Blue 1
8 AM Sat 88 88 S 5 10 5029 4991 1687 Blue 4
9 AM Sat 92 93 S 6 11 6080 5348 2044 Blue 9
10 AM Sat 96 98 S 8 12 7484 6737 3433 Blue 14
11 AM Sat 100 103 S 9 13 10053 8271 4967 Blue 19
12 Noon Sat 103 106 S 9 14 11597 9928 6624 Blue 22
1 PM Sat 105 108 S 10 17 15775 10977 7673 Blue 24
2 PM Sat 106 109 S 10 18 17201 11464 8160 Blue 25
3 PM Sat 106 108 S 10 18 15775 10977 7673 Blue 24
4 PM Sat 105 107 SSW 11 18 12076 10474 7170 Blue 23
5 PM Sat 103 104 SSW 11 18 10601 8817 5513 Blue 20
6 PM Sat 101 101 SSW 11 17 8922 7459 4155 Blue 17
7 PM Sat 99 99 S 10 16 7820 7108 3804 Blue 15
8 PM Sat 96 96 S 9 14 7131 6045 2741 Blue 12
9 PM Sat 94 94 SSW 8 13 6431 5547 2243 Blue 10
10 PM Sat 91 91 SSW 6 13 5558 5028 1724 Blue 7
11 PM Sat 89 89 SW 5 12 5150 5003 1699 Blue 5
12 Midnight Sun 86 86 SW 5 11 5004 4974 1670 Blue 2
1 AM Sun 84 84 SW 4 9 4979 4974 1670 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 82 82 SW 4 8 0 3304 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 80 80 SW 3 6 0 3304 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 79 79 SSW 2 5 0 3304 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 79 79 SSW 2 5 0 3304 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 80 80 SSW 2 5 0 3304 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 82 82 S 2 5 0 3304 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 85 86 S 3 6 5004 4974 1670 Blue 2
9 AM Sun 89 91 S 4 9 5558 5028 1724 Blue 7
10 AM Sun 93 96 SSW 4 10 7131 6045 2741 Blue 12
11 AM Sun 97 100 SSW 5 12 8361 7283 3979 Blue 16
12 Noon Sun 100 103 SSW 6 13 10053 8271 4967 Blue 19
1 PM Sun 102 106 SW 6 14 11597 9928 6624 Blue 22
2 PM Sun 102 105 SW 8 14 11105 9364 6060 Blue 21
3 PM Sun 101 104 SW 9 14 10601 8817 5513 Blue 20
4 PM Sun 99 101 SW 9 14 8922 7459 4155 Blue 17
5 PM Sun 97 98 SW 9 14 7484 6737 3433 Blue 14
6 PM Sun 96 96 SW 9 14 7131 6045 2741 Blue 12
7 PM Sun 95 95 SSW 8 13 6779 5683 2379 Blue 11
8 PM Sun 94 94 SSW 6 13 6431 5547 2243 Blue 10
9 PM Sun 92 92 SSW 6 12 5694 5138 1834 Blue 8
10 PM Sun 89 89 SSW 5 12 5150 5003 1699 Blue 5
11 PM Sun 87 87 SSW 5 11 5016 4978 1674 Blue 3
12 Midnight Mon 85 85 SSW 5 10 4992 4974 1670 Blue 1
1 AM Mon 83 83 SSW 4 10 0 3304 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 81 81 SSW 4 9 0 3304 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 79 79 SSW 4 9 0 3304 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 78 78 SSW 3 8 0 3304 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 78 78 SSW 3 8 0 3304 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 79 79 SSW 3 8 0 3304 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 81 81 SSW 3 8 0 3304 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 84 85 SSW 3 8 4992 4974 1670 Blue 1
9 AM Mon 88 91 SSW 4 8 5558 5028 1724 Blue 7
10 AM Mon 91 95 SW 4 9 6779 5683 2379 Blue 11
11 AM Mon 95 100 SW 5 10 8361 7283 3979 Blue 16
12 Noon Mon 98 104 SW 6 11 10601 8817 5513 Blue 20
1 PM Mon 100 106 WSW 6 13 11597 9928 6624 Blue 22
2 PM Mon 101 106 WSW 8 14 11597 9928 6624 Blue 22
3 PM Mon 101 105 WSW 9 14 11105 9364 6060 Blue 21
4 PM Mon 101 104 SW 9 14 10601 8817 5513 Blue 20
5 PM Mon 100 102 SW 9 14 9483 7736 4432 Blue 18
6 PM Mon 98 98 SW 9 13 7484 6737 3433 Blue 14
7 PM Mon 96 96 WSW 8 13 7131 6045 2741 Blue 12
8 PM Mon 94 94 WSW 6 12 6431 5547 2243 Blue 10
9 PM Mon 92 92 WSW 6 12 5694 5138 1834 Blue 8
10 PM Mon 89 89 SW 5 12 5150 5003 1699 Blue 5
11 PM Mon 87 87 SW 5 12 5016 4978 1674 Blue 3
12 Midnight Tue 84 84 SW 5 12 4979 4974 1670 Blue 0
1 AM Tue 82 82 SW 5 11 0 3304 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 80 80 SW 5 11 0 3304 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 78 78 SW 5 11 0 3304 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 77 77 SW 5 10 0 3304 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 77 77 SW 5 10 0 3304 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 78 78 SW 5 10 0 3304 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 80 80 SW 4 9 0 3304 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 83 84 SW 4 9 4979 4974 1670 Blue 0
9 AM Tue 87 89 SW 4 9 5150 5003 1699 Blue 5
10 AM Tue 91 95 SW 4 10 6779 5683 2379 Blue 11
11 AM Tue 95 100 SW 5 11 8361 7283 3979 Blue 16
12 Noon Tue 97 103 SW 6 12 10053 8271 4967 Blue 19
1 PM Tue 99 106 SW 6 12 11597 9928 6624 Blue 22
2 PM Tue 100 106 SW 8 13 11597 9928 6624 Blue 22
3 PM Tue 101 106 SW 9 14 11597 9928 6624 Blue 22
4 PM Tue 101 105 WSW 9 16 11105 9364 6060 Blue 21
5 PM Tue 101 103 WSW 9 16 10053 8271 4967 Blue 19
6 PM Tue 100 101 WSW 9 16 8922 7459 4155 Blue 17
7 PM Tue 98 98 WSW 8 14 7484 6737 3433 Blue 14
8 PM Tue 95 95 WSW 8 13 6779 5683 2379 Blue 11
9 PM Tue 92 92 WSW 8 13 5694 5138 1834 Blue 8
10 PM Tue 88 88 WSW 6 12 5029 4991 1687 Blue 4

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]