Detailed Predictions for: Goodsprings
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 35.8945, -115.4874, 6168
LZ Altitude (f): 4652
Sounding

Station:

 KREV

Date/Time UTC:

 260617/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Wed 77 77 WNW 13 18 7651 6168 0 Blue 2
1 AM Wed 75 75 WNW 12 17 5847 6168 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 75 75 WNW 11 16 5847 6168 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 74 74 WNW 11 16 5518 6168 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 74 74 WNW 11 16 5518 6168 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 74 74 WNW 11 16 5518 6168 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 72 72 WNW 11 16 5308 6168 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 75 75 W 11 16 5847 6168 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 78 80 W 11 16 9354 7627 1459 Blue 5
9 AM Wed 80 84 W 12 17 10984 9892 3724 Blue 9
10 AM Wed 84 90 W 12 18 14099 11693 5525 Blue 15
11 AM Wed 86 94 WSW 13 19 15993 14935 8767 White 19
12 Noon Wed 88 97 WSW 14 20 16609 16609 10441 White 22
1 PM Wed 89 98 WSW 14 20 16813 16813 10645 White 23
2 PM Wed 89 97 SW 14 20 16609 16609 10441 White 22
3 PM Wed 89 95 SW 14 20 16199 15780 9612 White 20
4 PM Wed 89 93 SW 13 19 15786 13786 7618 White 18
5 PM Wed 88 90 SW 13 19 14099 11693 5525 Blue 15
6 PM Wed 87 88 SW 12 18 12139 11097 4929 Blue 13
7 PM Wed 86 86 WSW 13 19 11409 10792 4624 Blue 11
8 PM Wed 81 81 WSW 12 19 9978 8045 1877 Blue 6
9 PM Wed 79 79 W 12 19 8725 6653 485 Blue 4
10 PM Wed 77 77 W 12 19 7651 6168 0 Blue 2
11 PM Wed 76 76 W 12 18 6778 6168 0 Blue 1
12 Midnight Thu 75 75 WNW 11 16 5847 6168 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 73 73 WNW 10 14 5413 6168 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 72 72 W 9 12 5308 6168 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 71 71 WNW 8 11 5204 6168 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 71 71 WNW 8 11 5204 6168 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 71 71 W 8 11 5204 6168 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 70 70 N 6 11 5099 6168 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 73 73 SW 8 11 5413 6168 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 76 78 SSW 6 10 8097 6168 0 Blue 3
9 AM Thu 77 81 S 6 11 9978 8045 1877 Blue 6
10 AM Thu 82 88 S 9 13 12139 11097 4929 Blue 13
11 AM Thu 84 92 S 10 16 15579 12856 6688 White 17
12 Noon Thu 87 96 S 11 16 16405 16405 10237 White 21
1 PM Thu 88 97 S 11 17 16609 16609 10441 White 22
2 PM Thu 88 96 S 11 17 16405 16405 10237 White 21
3 PM Thu 88 94 S 11 17 15993 14935 8767 White 19
4 PM Thu 88 92 S 12 18 15579 12856 6688 White 17
5 PM Thu 87 89 SSW 13 18 13079 11342 5174 Blue 14
6 PM Thu 86 87 SSW 12 19 11764 10959 4791 Blue 12
7 PM Thu 83 83 SSW 12 20 10822 9277 3109 Blue 8
8 PM Thu 79 79 SSW 13 20 8725 6653 485 Blue 4
9 PM Thu 77 77 SSW 12 19 7651 6168 0 Blue 2
10 PM Thu 75 75 SSW 11 18 5847 6168 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 74 74 SSW 10 16 5518 6168 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 72 72 SW 9 13 5308 6168 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 71 71 SW 6 11 5204 6168 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 70 70 WSW 5 10 5099 6168 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 69 69 SW 5 9 5075 6168 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 68 68 SSW 5 8 5075 6168 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 68 68 S 5 8 5075 6168 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 70 70 S 6 9 5099 6168 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 72 72 S 8 12 5308 6168 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 75 77 SSE 9 14 7651 6168 0 Blue 2
9 AM Fri 77 81 S 11 17 9978 8045 1877 Blue 6
10 AM Fri 79 85 S 12 19 11122 10468 4300 Blue 10
11 AM Fri 81 89 S 14 21 13079 11342 5174 Blue 14
12 Noon Fri 83 92 SSW 16 23 15579 12856 6688 White 17
1 PM Fri 84 93 SSW 17 24 15786 13786 7618 White 18
2 PM Fri 85 93 SSW 17 24 15786 13786 7618 White 18
3 PM Fri 85 91 SSW 17 24 15301 12042 5874 Blue 16
4 PM Fri 84 88 SW 17 24 12139 11097 4929 Blue 13
5 PM Fri 83 85 SW 17 24 11122 10468 4300 Blue 10
6 PM Fri 81 82 SW 17 25 10550 8663 2495 Blue 7
7 PM Fri 79 79 SW 17 25 8725 6653 485 Blue 4
8 PM Fri 76 76 SW 16 25 6778 6168 0 Blue 1
9 PM Fri 74 74 SW 14 23 5518 6168 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 72 72 WSW 13 19 5308 6168 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 70 70 WSW 12 17 5099 6168 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 68 68 WSW 11 16 5075 6168 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 66 66 SW 10 14 5075 6168 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 64 64 SW 10 14 5075 6168 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 63 63 SW 10 14 5075 6168 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 62 62 SW 10 14 5075 6168 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 62 62 SW 10 14 5075 6168 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 63 63 SW 10 13 5075 6168 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 65 65 SSW 9 13 5075 6168 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 68 70 SSW 9 13 5099 6168 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 71 75 SSW 10 14 5847 6168 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 74 80 SW 11 16 9354 7627 1459 Blue 5
11 AM Sat 77 85 SW 12 18 11122 10468 4300 Blue 10
12 Noon Sat 79 88 SW 13 19 12139 11097 4929 Blue 13
1 PM Sat 81 90 SW 14 20 14099 11693 5525 Blue 15
2 PM Sat 82 90 SW 16 21 14099 11693 5525 Blue 15
3 PM Sat 82 89 SW 16 21 13079 11342 5174 Blue 14
4 PM Sat 82 87 SW 16 21 11764 10959 4791 Blue 12
5 PM Sat 81 83 SW 14 21 10822 9277 3109 Blue 8
6 PM Sat 79 80 SW 13 20 9354 7627 1459 Blue 5
7 PM Sat 76 76 WSW 13 19 6778 6168 0 Blue 1
8 PM Sat 74 74 WSW 12 18 5518 6168 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 72 72 WSW 11 17 5308 6168 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 70 70 WSW 11 16 5099 6168 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 68 68 WSW 10 14 5075 6168 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 66 66 WSW 9 13 5075 6168 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 65 65 WSW 9 12 5075 6168 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 64 64 WSW 8 11 5075 6168 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 63 63 WSW 8 11 5075 6168 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 62 62 WSW 6 10 5075 6168 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 63 63 WSW 6 10 5075 6168 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 65 65 SW 5 9 5075 6168 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 69 69 SW 4 6 5075 6168 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 72 74 SSW 4 6 5518 6168 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 75 79 SSW 5 8 8725 6653 485 Blue 4
10 AM Sun 77 83 S 6 10 10822 9277 3109 Blue 8
11 AM Sun 79 87 S 8 12 11764 10959 4791 Blue 12
12 Noon Sun 81 90 S 8 12 14099 11693 5525 Blue 15
1 PM Sun 83 92 SSW 8 12 15579 12856 6688 White 17
2 PM Sun 84 92 SSW 8 12 15579 12856 6688 White 17
3 PM Sun 85 92 SSW 9 13 15579 12856 6688 White 17
4 PM Sun 84 89 SW 9 13 13079 11342 5174 Blue 14
5 PM Sun 83 85 SW 10 14 11122 10468 4300 Blue 10
6 PM Sun 81 82 SW 11 16 10550 8663 2495 Blue 7
7 PM Sun 78 78 WSW 11 17 8097 6168 0 Blue 3
8 PM Sun 75 75 WSW 11 17 5847 6168 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 73 73 WSW 10 16 5413 6168 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 71 71 WSW 8 13 5204 6168 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 70 70 WSW 6 11 5099 6168 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 68 68 WSW 5 10 5075 6168 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 67 67 WSW 5 10 5075 6168 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 66 66 WSW 5 9 5075 6168 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 65 65 W 5 8 5075 6168 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 65 65 NW 4 6 5075 6168 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 66 66 NNW 4 6 5075 6168 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 68 68 N 4 6 5075 6168 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 72 72 E 4 6 5308 6168 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 75 77 ESE 5 8 7651 6168 0 Blue 2
9 AM Mon 77 81 SE 6 10 9978 8045 1877 Blue 6
10 AM Mon 79 85 SE 8 11 11122 10468 4300 Blue 10
11 AM Mon 81 89 SE 9 13 13079 11342 5174 Blue 14
12 Noon Mon 83 92 SSE 9 14 15579 12856 6688 White 17
1 PM Mon 85 94 SSE 9 14 15993 14935 8767 White 19
2 PM Mon 86 94 S 9 14 15993 14935 8767 White 19
3 PM Mon 87 94 S 9 14 15993 14935 8767 White 19
4 PM Mon 87 92 SSW 9 13 15579 12856 6688 White 17
5 PM Mon 86 88 SSW 9 13 12139 11097 4929 Blue 13
6 PM Mon 84 85 SW 9 13 11122 10468 4300 Blue 10
7 PM Mon 81 81 SW 9 13 9978 8045 1877 Blue 6
8 PM Mon 78 78 SW 9 13 8097 6168 0 Blue 3
9 PM Mon 76 76 SW 8 12 6778 6168 0 Blue 1
10 PM Mon 74 74 SW 8 11 5518 6168 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]