Detailed Predictions for: Goodsprings
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 35.8945, -115.4874, 6168
LZ Altitude (f): 4652
Sounding

Station:

KREV

Date/Time:

11 JUL 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)
High
Temp

Puddle
Temp

Wind
(mph)
Wind
Gust
Thermal
Ceiling

(ft)
Soaring
Ceiling

(ft)
Above
Launch

(ft)
Thermal
Type
Thermal
Index

(F)
12 Midnight Thu 84 84 WNW 12 18 7506 6772 604 Blue 7
1 AM Thu 83 83 NW 12 18 7324 6414 246 Blue 6
2 AM Thu 83 83 NW 12 18 7324 6414 246 Blue 6
3 AM Thu 82 82 NW 12 18 7142 6168 0 Blue 5
4 AM Thu 82 82 NW 12 18 7142 6168 0 Blue 5
5 AM Thu 82 82 NW 12 18 7142 6168 0 Blue 5
6 AM Thu 81 81 NW 10 14 6787 6168 0 Blue 4
7 AM Thu 83 83 NW 9 12 7324 6414 246 Blue 6
8 AM Thu 87 88 NW 6 11 9661 7868 1700 Blue 11
9 AM Thu 90 92 W 5 10 11834 10166 3998 Blue 15
10 AM Thu 94 97 SW 5 10 17992 16385 10217 Blue 20
11 AM Thu 96 102 WSW 6 11 20147 19017 12849 White 25
12 Noon Thu 98 105 W 8 12 20731 20731 14563 White 28
1 PM Thu 99 107 W 9 13 21119 21119 14951 White 30
2 PM Thu 99 105 W 10 14 20731 20731 14563 White 28
3 PM Thu 99 104 W 10 16 20537 20537 14369 White 27
4 PM Thu 100 103 W 11 16 20341 20341 14173 White 26
5 PM Thu 98 100 W 11 17 19755 17938 11770 White 23
6 PM Thu 98 98 W 10 16 18498 17359 11191 Blue 21
7 PM Thu 95 95 W 10 16 17527 11735 5567 Blue 18
8 PM Thu 89 89 W 10 16 10251 8423 2255 Blue 12
9 PM Thu 87 87 WNW 10 14 9068 7494 1326 Blue 10
10 PM Thu 86 86 WNW 10 14 8475 7313 1145 Blue 9
11 PM Thu 85 85 WNW 10 16 7911 7132 964 Blue 8
12 Midnight Fri 85 85 WNW 10 16 7911 7132 964 Blue 8
1 AM Fri 84 84 WNW 10 16 7506 6772 604 Blue 7
2 AM Fri 83 83 NW 10 16 7324 6414 246 Blue 6
3 AM Fri 83 83 NW 10 16 7324 6414 246 Blue 6
4 AM Fri 83 83 WNW 11 16 7324 6414 246 Blue 6
5 AM Fri 82 82 NW 11 16 7142 6168 0 Blue 5
6 AM Fri 81 81 NW 10 14 6787 6168 0 Blue 4
7 AM Fri 83 83 W 8 12 7324 6414 246 Blue 6
8 AM Fri 86 87 SSW 6 11 9068 7494 1326 Blue 10
9 AM Fri 89 91 SSW 5 10 11327 9583 3415 Blue 14
10 AM Fri 92 95 S 5 10 17527 11735 5567 Blue 18
11 AM Fri 94 98 S 6 11 18498 17359 11191 Blue 21
12 Noon Fri 96 101 S 8 12 19952 18071 11903 White 24
1 PM Fri 97 103 SSE 9 13 20341 20341 14173 White 26
2 PM Fri 98 103 SSE 10 14 20341 20341 14173 White 26
3 PM Fri 98 103 S 10 16 20341 20341 14173 White 26
4 PM Fri 98 101 SSW 10 16 19952 18071 11903 White 24
5 PM Fri 97 99 SSW 10 16 19425 17777 11609 Blue 22
6 PM Fri 94 95 SSW 10 16 17527 11735 5567 Blue 18
7 PM Fri 91 91 SSW 10 16 11327 9583 3415 Blue 14
8 PM Fri 88 88 SSW 10 16 9661 7868 1700 Blue 11
9 PM Fri 86 86 SW 10 16 8475 7313 1145 Blue 9
10 PM Fri 85 85 SW 10 14 7911 7132 964 Blue 8
11 PM Fri 84 84 SW 10 14 7506 6772 604 Blue 7
12 Midnight Sat 83 83 SW 10 14 7324 6414 246 Blue 6
1 AM Sat 82 82 SW 9 13 7142 6168 0 Blue 5
2 AM Sat 81 81 SW 9 13 6787 6168 0 Blue 4
3 AM Sat 80 80 SW 9 13 6425 6168 0 Blue 3
4 AM Sat 79 79 WSW 9 12 6060 6168 0 Blue 2
5 AM Sat 79 79 WSW 9 12 6060 6168 0 Blue 2
6 AM Sat 80 80 SW 9 12 6425 6168 0 Blue 3
7 AM Sat 82 82 S 9 12 7142 6168 0 Blue 5
8 AM Sat 84 84 S 9 13 7506 6772 604 Blue 7
9 AM Sat 86 87 S 10 14 9068 7494 1326 Blue 10
10 AM Sat 89 91 S 10 16 11327 9583 3415 Blue 14
11 AM Sat 91 94 S 11 17 16976 11233 5065 Blue 17
12 Noon Sat 93 96 S 12 18 17861 14154 7986 Blue 19
1 PM Sat 94 97 SSW 12 19 17992 16385 10217 Blue 20
2 PM Sat 94 97 SSW 13 19 17992 16385 10217 Blue 20
3 PM Sat 94 96 SSW 13 19 17861 14154 7986 Blue 19
4 PM Sat 93 95 SSW 13 19 17527 11735 5567 Blue 18
5 PM Sat 92 93 SSW 13 19 15035 10718 4550 Blue 16
6 PM Sat 90 90 SSW 13 19 10806 9003 2835 Blue 13
7 PM Sat 87 87 SSW 12 19 9068 7494 1326 Blue 10
8 PM Sat 84 84 SSW 12 19 7506 6772 604 Blue 7
9 PM Sat 82 82 SSW 12 19 7142 6168 0 Blue 5
10 PM Sat 81 81 S 11 19 6787 6168 0 Blue 4
11 PM Sat 80 80 S 11 18 6425 6168 0 Blue 3
12 Midnight Sun 79 79 SSW 11 17 6060 6168 0 Blue 2
1 AM Sun 78 78 SW 10 16 5681 6168 0 Blue 1
2 AM Sun 77 77 SW 10 14 5541 6168 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 76 76 SW 10 14 5329 6168 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 75 75 S 9 13 5200 6168 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 75 75 S 9 13 5200 6168 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 76 76 S 8 12 5329 6168 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 78 78 S 6 11 5681 6168 0 Blue 1
8 AM Sun 80 81 S 6 11 6787 6168 0 Blue 4
9 AM Sun 83 85 S 8 12 7911 7132 964 Blue 8
10 AM Sun 86 89 SSW 9 13 10251 8423 2255 Blue 12
11 AM Sun 88 91 SW 10 14 11327 9583 3415 Blue 14
12 Noon Sun 90 94 SW 10 16 16976 11233 5065 Blue 17
1 PM Sun 91 95 SW 11 17 17527 11735 5567 Blue 18
2 PM Sun 91 94 SW 11 17 16976 11233 5065 Blue 17
3 PM Sun 91 94 SW 11 17 16976 11233 5065 Blue 17
4 PM Sun 90 92 SW 12 17 11834 10166 3998 Blue 15
5 PM Sun 89 90 SW 12 17 10806 9003 2835 Blue 13
6 PM Sun 87 87 SW 11 17 9068 7494 1326 Blue 10
7 PM Sun 85 85 SSW 11 16 7911 7132 964 Blue 8
8 PM Sun 83 83 SSW 10 16 7324 6414 246 Blue 6
9 PM Sun 81 81 SSW 10 16 6787 6168 0 Blue 4
10 PM Sun 80 80 SW 10 16 6425 6168 0 Blue 3
11 PM Sun 79 79 SW 10 16 6060 6168 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Mon 78 78 SW 10 16 5681 6168 0 Blue 1
1 AM Mon 77 77 SW 10 14 5541 6168 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 76 76 SW 10 14 5329 6168 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 75 75 SW 10 14 5200 6168 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 74 74 SW 10 14 5200 6168 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 74 74 SW 10 14 5200 6168 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 75 75 SW 9 13 5200 6168 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 77 77 SW 8 12 5541 6168 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 79 80 SW 8 12 6425 6168 0 Blue 3
9 AM Mon 81 84 SW 8 12 7506 6772 604 Blue 7
10 AM Mon 84 88 SW 9 13 9661 7868 1700 Blue 11
11 AM Mon 86 92 SW 10 14 11834 10166 3998 Blue 15
12 Noon Mon 88 95 SW 11 16 17527 11735 5567 Blue 18
1 PM Mon 89 96 SW 12 18 17861 14154 7986 Blue 19
2 PM Mon 90 96 SW 13 19 17861 14154 7986 Blue 19
3 PM Mon 90 95 SW 13 19 17527 11735 5567 Blue 18
4 PM Mon 90 93 WSW 13 19 15035 10718 4550 Blue 16
5 PM Mon 89 91 WSW 13 19 11327 9583 3415 Blue 14
6 PM Mon 87 88 WSW 12 19 9661 7868 1700 Blue 11
7 PM Mon 85 85 SW 12 18 7911 7132 964 Blue 8
8 PM Mon 83 83 SW 11 18 7324 6414 246 Blue 6
9 PM Mon 81 81 SW 11 18 6787 6168 0 Blue 4
10 PM Mon 80 80 WSW 11 17 6425 6168 0 Blue 3
11 PM Mon 79 79 WSW 11 17 6060 6168 0 Blue 2
12 Midnight Tue 78 78 WSW 11 17 5681 6168 0 Blue 1
1 AM Tue 77 77 WSW 11 17 5541 6168 0 Blue 0
2 AM Tue 76 76 WSW 11 17 5329 6168 0 Blue 0
3 AM Tue 75 75 WSW 11 17 5200 6168 0 Blue 0
4 AM Tue 74 74 WSW 11 16 5200 6168 0 Blue 0
5 AM Tue 74 74 WSW 11 16 5200 6168 0 Blue 0
6 AM Tue 75 75 WSW 11 14 5200 6168 0 Blue 0
7 AM Tue 76 76 SW 10 13 5329 6168 0 Blue 0
8 AM Tue 78 79 SW 10 13 6060 6168 0 Blue 2
9 AM Tue 81 83 SW 10 13 7324 6414 246 Blue 6
10 AM Tue 84 88 SW 10 13 9661 7868 1700 Blue 11
11 AM Tue 86 92 SW 10 14 11834 10166 3998 Blue 15
12 Noon Tue 88 95 SW 11 16 17527 11735 5567 Blue 18
1 PM Tue 88 95 SW 11 17 17527 11735 5567 Blue 18
2 PM Tue 89 96 SW 12 18 17861 14154 7986 Blue 19
3 PM Tue 90 96 SW 13 19 17861 14154 7986 Blue 19
4 PM Tue 90 94 WSW 13 19 16976 11233 5065 Blue 17
5 PM Tue 90 92 WSW 13 19 11834 10166 3998 Blue 15
6 PM Tue 88 89 WSW 12 19 10251 8423 2255 Blue 12
7 PM Tue 86 86 WSW 12 18 8475 7313 1145 Blue 9
8 PM Tue 83 83 WSW 11 18 7324 6414 246 Blue 6
9 PM Tue 81 81 WSW 11 18 6787 6168 0 Blue 4
10 PM Tue 79 79 W 11 18 6060 6168 0 Blue 2

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]