Detailed Predictions for: Goodsprings
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 35.8945, -115.4874, 6168
LZ Altitude (f): 4652
Sounding

Station:

 KREV

Date/Time:

 N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Tue 73 73 WNW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 72 72 WNW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 71 71 WNW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 70 70 NW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 70 70 NNW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 70 70 N 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 69 69 N 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 68 68 NNE 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 70 70 NE 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 74 75 ENE 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 77 79 E 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 79 83 ESE 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 82 86 SSE 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 82 86 S 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 82 86 SSW 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 82 85 SW 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 81 82 SW 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 80 80 WSW 10 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 77 77 W 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 73 73 W 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 71 71 W 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 70 70 WNW 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 70 70 WNW 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 69 69 W 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 69 69 WNW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 68 68 NW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 67 67 WNW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 67 67 NW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 66 66 NW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Wed 66 66 WNW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Wed 65 65 NW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Wed 65 65 NNW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Wed 67 67 NNW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Wed 70 71 NW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Wed 74 76 W 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Wed 78 82 SW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Wed 80 85 SW 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Wed 81 86 WSW 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Wed 81 85 WSW 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Wed 81 84 WSW 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Wed 81 82 WSW 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Wed 79 79 WSW 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Wed 76 76 WSW 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Wed 72 72 W 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Wed 69 69 W 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Wed 68 68 W 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Wed 68 68 W 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Wed 68 68 W 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Thu 68 68 W 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Thu 67 67 W 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Thu 67 67 W 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Thu 66 66 W 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Thu 65 65 W 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Thu 65 65 W 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 65 65 WNW 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 65 65 NW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 67 67 NW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 70 71 WNW 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 74 76 SW 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 77 80 SSW 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 79 83 SSW 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 80 84 SW 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 80 83 SW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 80 82 SW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 79 80 SW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 78 78 SW 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 75 75 WSW 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 72 72 WSW 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 69 69 W 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 68 68 W 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 68 68 W 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 68 68 W 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 67 67 W 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 67 67 WNW 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 66 66 WNW 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 65 65 WNW 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 64 64 WNW 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 64 64 WNW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 64 64 NW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 65 65 NW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 67 67 NW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 70 70 WNW 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 74 75 SW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 77 78 S 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 79 81 SSW 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 80 82 SW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 80 81 SW 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 80 81 SW 12 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 79 80 WSW 12 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 77 77 WSW 12 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 74 74 WSW 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 71 71 W 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 68 68 W 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 67 67 W 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 66 66 W 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 66 66 W 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 65 65 W 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 65 65 W 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 64 64 W 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 63 63 W 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 62 62 W 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 62 62 W 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 62 62 W 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 63 63 WSW 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 65 65 WSW 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 68 69 SW 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 71 72 SW 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 74 76 SSW 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 76 79 SW 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 77 80 SW 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 77 80 SW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 77 79 SW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 76 77 SW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 75 75 SW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 72 72 WSW 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 69 69 WSW 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 66 66 WSW 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 65 65 WSW 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 64 64 W 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 64 64 W 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 63 63 W 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 62 62 W 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 61 61 W 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 60 60 WSW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 59 59 WSW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 59 59 SW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 59 59 SW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 60 60 SW 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 61 61 SW 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 64 65 SSW 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 67 69 SSW 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 70 74 S 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 72 76 SSW 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 73 77 SSW 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 73 77 SW 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 73 75 SW 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 72 73 SW 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 71 71 SW 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 68 68 SW 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 65 65 WSW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 62 62 WSW 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 61 61 WSW 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 61 61 W 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]