Detailed Predictions for: Noel Springs
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 39.526976, -122.659106, 4950
LZ Altitude (f): 1070
Sounding

Station:

 KOAK

Date/Time UTC:

 260617/1200

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Wed 69 69 W 2 5 3825 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Wed 68 68 WNW 2 5 3825 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Wed 67 67 NW 2 5 3825 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Wed 66 66 NW 3 5 3825 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Wed 65 65 NW 3 6 3825 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Wed 64 64 NNW 4 8 3825 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Wed 64 64 NW 4 8 3825 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Wed 66 66 NNW 8 11 3825 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Wed 68 69 NNW 6 11 3825 4950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Wed 70 73 N 6 11 3825 4950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Wed 70 75 NE 6 10 3851 4950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Wed 70 77 ENE 5 10 4932 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Wed 73 81 E 5 10 6181 5035 85 Blue 4
1 PM Wed 75 83 E 5 11 8076 5742 792 Blue 6
2 PM Wed 76 84 ESE 6 12 8463 6145 1195 Blue 7
3 PM Wed 77 84 SE 6 13 8463 6145 1195 Blue 7
4 PM Wed 79 84 SE 6 13 8463 6145 1195 Blue 7
5 PM Wed 78 81 SSE 6 13 6181 5035 85 Blue 4
6 PM Wed 79 81 SSE 9 16 6181 5035 85 Blue 4
7 PM Wed 77 77 S 10 18 4932 4950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Wed 74 74 W 9 16 3825 4950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Wed 70 70 W 4 10 3825 4950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Wed 69 69 WNW 2 6 3825 4950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Wed 68 68 NNW 1 5 3825 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Thu 68 68 NW 1 4 3825 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Thu 67 67 NW 1 4 3825 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Thu 66 66 NNW 1 4 3825 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Thu 65 65 NNW 1 4 3825 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Thu 64 64 NNW 2 4 3825 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 63 63 N 3 9 3825 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 63 63 N 3 9 3825 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Thu 65 65 N 3 9 3825 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Thu 66 67 ENE 5 10 3825 4950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Thu 68 71 ENE 5 10 3825 4950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Thu 69 73 ENE 5 10 3825 4950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Thu 69 74 E 5 11 3825 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Thu 71 77 E 5 11 4932 4950 0 Blue 0
1 PM Thu 73 80 E 5 11 5753 4950 0 Blue 3
2 PM Thu 74 82 ESE 8 16 6976 5230 280 Blue 5
3 PM Thu 74 81 ESE 8 16 6181 5035 85 Blue 4
4 PM Thu 76 81 ESE 8 16 6181 5035 85 Blue 4
5 PM Thu 75 78 SE 11 19 5036 4950 0 Blue 1
6 PM Thu 75 77 SE 11 19 4932 4950 0 Blue 0
7 PM Thu 73 73 SE 11 19 3825 4950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Thu 70 70 SE 12 20 3825 4950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Thu 68 68 SE 12 20 3825 4950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Thu 66 66 SE 12 20 3825 4950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Thu 64 64 NW 3 8 3825 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Fri 63 63 NW 3 8 3825 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Fri 61 61 NW 3 8 3825 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Fri 60 60 N 1 5 3825 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Fri 59 59 N 1 5 3825 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Fri 58 58 N 1 5 3825 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Fri 57 57 N 1 4 3825 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Fri 58 58 N 1 4 3825 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Fri 59 59 N 1 4 3825 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Fri 59 59 NE 5 9 3825 4950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Fri 59 60 NE 5 9 3825 4950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Fri 59 62 NE 5 9 3825 4950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Fri 60 65 E 6 12 3825 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Fri 62 68 E 6 12 3825 4950 0 Blue 0
1 PM Fri 64 70 E 6 12 3825 4950 0 Blue 0
2 PM Fri 66 74 SE 8 16 3825 4950 0 Blue 0
3 PM Fri 67 74 SE 8 16 3825 4950 0 Blue 0
4 PM Fri 68 73 SE 8 16 3825 4950 0 Blue 0
5 PM Fri 68 71 SSE 12 19 3825 4950 0 Blue 0
6 PM Fri 67 68 SSE 12 19 3825 4950 0 Blue 0
7 PM Fri 65 65 SSE 12 19 3825 4950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Fri 63 63 S 12 20 3825 4950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Fri 61 61 S 12 20 3825 4950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Fri 58 58 S 12 20 3825 4950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Fri 56 56 NW 4 9 3825 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sat 55 55 NW 4 9 3825 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sat 54 54 NW 4 9 3825 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sat 53 53 NW 2 6 3825 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sat 52 52 NW 2 6 3825 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sat 51 51 NW 2 6 3825 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sat 51 51 NNW 3 6 3825 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sat 53 53 NNW 3 6 3825 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sat 55 55 NNW 3 6 3825 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sat 57 58 NE 5 9 3825 4950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sat 58 61 NE 5 9 3825 4950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sat 60 65 NE 5 9 3825 4950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sat 61 68 E 5 10 3825 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sat 63 71 E 5 10 3825 4950 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sat 65 74 E 5 10 3825 4950 0 Blue 0
2 PM Sat 67 75 ESE 6 12 3851 4950 0 Blue 0
3 PM Sat 68 75 ESE 6 12 3851 4950 0 Blue 0
4 PM Sat 68 73 ESE 6 12 3825 4950 0 Blue 0
5 PM Sat 69 72 SE 8 14 3825 4950 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sat 68 70 SE 8 14 3825 4950 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sat 66 66 SE 8 14 3825 4950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sat 65 65 SSE 10 17 3825 4950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sat 63 63 SSE 10 17 3825 4950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sat 61 61 SSE 10 17 3825 4950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sat 60 60 WNW 2 5 3825 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Sun 59 59 WNW 2 5 3825 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Sun 58 58 WNW 2 5 3825 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Sun 58 58 NW 2 4 3825 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Sun 57 57 NW 2 4 3825 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Sun 57 57 NW 2 4 3825 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Sun 57 57 NNW 3 6 3825 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Sun 59 59 NNW 3 6 3825 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Sun 62 62 NNW 3 6 3825 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Sun 64 65 NE 4 9 3825 4950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Sun 65 68 NE 4 9 3825 4950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Sun 66 71 NE 4 9 3825 4950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Sun 67 74 E 5 10 3825 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Sun 69 77 E 5 10 4932 4950 0 Blue 0
1 PM Sun 70 79 E 5 10 5235 4950 0 Blue 2
2 PM Sun 72 80 ESE 6 13 5753 4950 0 Blue 3
3 PM Sun 73 80 ESE 6 13 5753 4950 0 Blue 3
4 PM Sun 74 79 ESE 6 13 5235 4950 0 Blue 2
5 PM Sun 74 77 SSE 8 16 4932 4950 0 Blue 0
6 PM Sun 73 75 SSE 8 16 3851 4950 0 Blue 0
7 PM Sun 71 71 SSE 8 16 3825 4950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Sun 69 69 SW 11 19 3825 4950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Sun 67 67 SW 11 19 3825 4950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Sun 65 65 SW 11 19 3825 4950 0 Blue 0
11 PM Sun 63 63 WNW 5 10 3825 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Midnight Mon 62 62 WNW 5 10 3825 4950 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 61 61 WNW 5 10 3825 4950 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 61 61 NNW 2 5 3825 4950 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 60 60 NNW 2 5 3825 4950 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 60 60 NNW 2 5 3825 4950 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 60 60 NNW 4 8 3825 4950 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 62 62 NNW 4 8 3825 4950 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 64 64 NNW 4 8 3825 4950 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 66 67 NE 4 8 3825 4950 0 Blue 0
9 AM Mon 67 70 NE 4 8 3825 4950 0 Blue 0
10 AM Mon 67 72 NE 4 8 3825 4950 0 Blue 0
11 AM Mon 68 75 E 5 10 3851 4950 0 Blue 0
12 Noon Mon 70 78 E 5 10 5036 4950 0 Blue 1
1 PM Mon 71 80 E 5 10 5753 4950 0 Blue 3
2 PM Mon 73 81 SE 8 14 6181 5035 85 Blue 4
3 PM Mon 74 81 SE 8 14 6181 5035 85 Blue 4
4 PM Mon 75 80 SE 8 14 5753 4950 0 Blue 3
5 PM Mon 75 78 SSE 11 19 5036 4950 0 Blue 1
6 PM Mon 74 76 SSE 11 19 4464 4950 0 Blue 0
7 PM Mon 72 72 SSE 11 19 3825 4950 0 Blue 0
8 PM Mon 70 70 SSW 10 17 3825 4950 0 Blue 0
9 PM Mon 68 68 SSW 10 17 3825 4950 0 Blue 0
10 PM Mon 66 66 SSW 10 17 3825 4950 0 Blue 0

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]