Detailed Predictions for: Mingus
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.69413495770311, -112.1270293670828, 7800
LZ Altitude (f): 3550
Sounding

Station:

 KFGZ

Date/Time UTC:

 N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Sun 55 55 SW 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 54 54 SW 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 52 52 SW 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 51 51 SSW 11 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 50 50 SSW 12 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 49 49 SSW 14 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 51 51 SSW 14 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 53 53 S 14 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 56 58 S 14 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 58 62 S 16 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 59 65 S 17 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 59 67 S 19 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 60 69 SSW 20 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 61 69 SSW 23 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 61 68 SSW 24 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 61 66 SSW 26 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 61 64 SSW 27 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 59 60 SSW 28 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 58 58 SSW 28 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 57 57 SSW 28 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 56 56 SSW 28 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 56 56 SSW 29 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 55 55 SSW 29 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 54 54 SSW 29 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 54 54 SW 28 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 52 52 SW 26 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 50 50 SW 24 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 48 48 SW 23 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 47 47 SW 21 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 46 46 WSW 20 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 47 47 WSW 17 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 47 47 SW 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 47 49 SW 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 49 53 SW 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 50 56 SW 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 51 59 SW 9 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 54 62 SW 10 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 57 65 SW 11 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 57 63 SW 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 57 59 SW 13 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 58 60 SW 13 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 57 58 SW 13 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 56 56 SW 13 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 54 54 SW 13 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 52 52 SW 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 50 50 SW 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 48 48 WSW 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 46 46 WSW 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 45 45 W 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 44 44 NW 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 43 43 NNW 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 42 42 N 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 41 41 NE 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 41 41 ENE 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 43 43 E 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 47 47 ESE 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 50 52 ESE 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 53 56 SE 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 55 60 SSE 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 57 63 S 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 59 66 S 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 60 66 S 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 61 66 S 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 62 66 SSW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 62 64 SSW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 62 63 SSW 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 60 60 SSW 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 58 58 S 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 55 55 S 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 53 53 S 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 51 51 SSE 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 49 49 SE 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 48 48 ESE 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 47 47 E 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 47 47 ENE 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 46 46 NE 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 45 45 NE 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Wed 45 45 NNE 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Wed 48 48 NE 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Wed 52 52 ENE 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Wed 56 58 E 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Wed 59 63 E 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Wed 61 67 ESE 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Wed 63 70 SE 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Wed 65 73 SSE 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Wed 66 74 S 10 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Wed 66 73 S 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Wed 66 71 S 11 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Wed 66 69 SSW 12 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Wed 64 65 SSW 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Wed 62 62 SSW 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Wed 60 60 SW 13 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Wed 58 58 SW 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Wed 56 56 SW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Wed 54 54 WSW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Wed 52 52 WSW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Thu 51 51 W 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Thu 50 50 NW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Thu 49 49 NNW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Thu 48 48 N 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Thu 47 47 NNE 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Thu 48 48 NE 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 51 51 ENE 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 56 56 ESE 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 60 62 SE 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 62 66 SSE 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 64 70 SSE 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 65 72 S 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 66 74 S 8 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 67 75 S 9 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 67 74 SSW 9 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 67 72 SSW 10 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 66 69 SSW 10 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 65 66 SSW 11 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 64 64 SSW 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 62 62 SW 13 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 60 60 SW 13 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 58 58 SW 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 55 55 WSW 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 53 53 WSW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 52 52 WSW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 51 51 W 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 50 50 W 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 49 49 WNW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 49 49 NNW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 50 50 N 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 53 53 NE 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 57 58 ESE 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 61 63 SE 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 63 67 SSE 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 65 71 S 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 66 73 S 10 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 67 75 S 11 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 68 76 SSW 11 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 68 75 SSW 11 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 68 73 SSW 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 67 70 SW 13 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 66 67 SW 13 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 64 64 SW 13 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 62 62 SW 12 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 60 60 SW 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 58 58 WSW 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 56 56 WSW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]