Detailed Predictions for: Merriam Crater
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 35.33876269790076, -111.2860844211301, 6800
LZ Altitude (f): 6000
Sounding

Station:

 KFGZ

Date/Time UTC:

 N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Wed 78 78 W 19 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 78 78 W 19 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 77 77 W 19 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 74 74 W 18 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 73 73 W 17 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Wed 70 70 W 14 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Wed 72 72 SSW 13 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Wed 78 79 WSW 12 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Wed 81 83 WNW 13 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Wed 86 90 W 14 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Wed 89 95 W 13 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Wed 90 96 W 14 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Wed 92 97 W 17 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Wed 92 97 W 17 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Wed 92 95 W 17 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Wed 91 93 W 18 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Wed 89 90 W 19 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Wed 89 90 W 19 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Wed 91 91 WSW 19 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Wed 86 86 WSW 20 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Wed 82 82 WSW 20 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Wed 79 79 WSW 24 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Wed 77 77 WSW 24 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Wed 77 77 WSW 24 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Thu 79 79 WSW 24 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Thu 79 79 WSW 24 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Thu 76 76 WSW 24 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Thu 74 74 WSW 20 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Thu 73 73 WSW 14 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Thu 70 70 SSW 12 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 70 70 SSW 12 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 74 75 W 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 77 79 W 12 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 80 84 WNW 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 83 89 WNW 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 87 94 W 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 90 98 W 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 90 98 WSW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 91 96 WSW 12 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 91 95 W 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 90 92 WSW 13 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 90 91 WSW 13 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 91 91 WSW 14 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 88 88 WSW 17 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 83 83 SW 19 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 79 79 SW 21 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 78 78 WSW 21 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 78 78 WSW 21 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 77 77 WSW 19 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 76 76 WSW 16 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 74 74 WSW 12 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 71 71 WSW 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 68 68 WSW 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 67 67 WSW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 69 69 WSW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 72 73 WSW 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 76 78 WSW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 79 83 SW 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 82 88 SW 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 84 92 SSW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 86 95 SSW 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 87 95 SW 16 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 88 95 SW 18 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 89 95 SW 19 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 89 93 SW 19 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 87 89 SW 19 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 85 85 SW 19 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 82 82 SW 19 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 79 79 SW 19 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 76 76 SW 18 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 73 73 SW 17 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 71 71 SW 14 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 70 70 SW 12 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 68 68 SW 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 67 67 SW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 64 64 SW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 62 62 SW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 61 61 SW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 63 63 SW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 68 69 SSW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 72 74 SSW 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 76 80 SSW 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 79 85 SW 11 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 81 89 SW 12 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 83 92 SW 13 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 85 94 SW 14 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 87 95 SW 16 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 88 94 SW 17 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 88 92 WSW 17 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 86 88 WSW 18 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 83 83 WSW 18 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 81 81 WSW 17 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 78 78 WSW 17 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 75 75 WSW 17 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 73 73 WSW 17 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 71 71 WSW 16 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 69 69 WSW 14 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 67 67 WSW 12 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 66 66 WSW 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 64 64 WSW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 62 62 WSW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 62 62 SW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 65 65 WSW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 69 70 WSW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 73 75 WSW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 76 80 SW 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 78 84 S 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 80 88 SE 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 83 92 SSE 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 85 94 SSW 9 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 87 95 SSW 10 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 88 94 SW 10 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 89 93 SW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 88 90 WSW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 86 86 WSW 12 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 83 83 WSW 14 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 80 80 WSW 17 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 78 78 WSW 17 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 75 75 WSW 16 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 73 73 WSW 14 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 70 70 WSW 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 68 68 WSW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 66 66 WSW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 64 64 WSW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 63 63 WSW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 63 63 WSW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 66 66 SW 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 70 71 S 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 74 76 SSE 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 77 81 SSE 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 80 86 SE 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 82 90 ESE 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 85 94 SE 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 87 96 SSE 9 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 89 97 SSE 9 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 90 96 S 9 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 91 95 SSW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 90 92 SW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 88 88 SW 11 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 85 85 WSW 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 82 82 WSW 12 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 79 79 WSW 12 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 77 77 WSW 12 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]