Detailed Predictions for: Elden
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 35.240, -111.60785, 9100
LZ Altitude (f): 7130
Sounding

Station:

 KFGZ

Date/Time UTC:

 N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Wed 52 52 WNW 17 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 51 51 W 16 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 51 51 W 16 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 50 50 W 16 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 48 48 W 14 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Wed 47 47 W 14 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Wed 48 48 W 16 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Wed 56 57 W 16 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Wed 64 66 W 18 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Wed 68 72 W 18 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Wed 73 79 W 18 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Wed 73 81 WSW 18 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Wed 76 84 WSW 18 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Wed 76 82 WSW 18 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Wed 77 83 WSW 19 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Wed 76 80 W 19 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Wed 73 76 W 19 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Wed 72 73 W 18 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Wed 71 71 W 18 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Wed 68 68 WSW 18 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Wed 63 63 W 18 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Wed 58 58 W 19 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Wed 54 54 W 19 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Wed 53 53 W 19 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Thu 52 52 W 19 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Thu 52 52 W 18 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Thu 51 51 W 18 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Thu 51 51 W 18 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Thu 49 49 W 17 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Thu 48 48 W 17 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 48 48 W 17 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 53 53 W 17 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 61 62 W 17 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 64 67 W 17 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 69 74 W 16 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 71 78 WSW 14 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 74 82 WSW 14 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 76 84 WSW 14 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 77 83 WSW 14 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 77 81 WSW 14 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 75 78 WSW 14 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 73 75 WSW 14 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 72 72 SW 16 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 69 69 SW 17 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 64 64 SW 17 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 59 59 WSW 17 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 55 55 WSW 16 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 52 52 WSW 16 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 51 51 WSW 16 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 51 51 W 14 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 50 50 W 14 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 48 48 W 13 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 46 46 W 13 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 46 46 W 12 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 50 50 W 12 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 56 57 WSW 12 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 61 63 WSW 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 65 69 WSW 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 68 74 SW 13 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 69 77 SW 14 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 71 80 SW 16 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 73 82 SSW 17 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 74 82 SSW 18 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 74 80 SSW 18 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 73 77 SW 18 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 71 73 SW 18 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 68 68 SW 18 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 65 65 SW 17 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 60 60 SW 17 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 56 56 SW 17 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 51 51 WSW 17 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 48 48 WSW 17 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 46 46 WSW 17 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 46 46 W 17 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 45 45 W 16 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 43 43 W 14 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 41 41 WSW 13 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 41 41 WSW 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 45 45 WSW 13 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 51 52 WSW 14 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 56 58 SW 16 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 61 65 SW 17 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 64 70 SW 17 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 67 75 SW 17 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 69 78 SW 17 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 71 80 SW 17 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 73 81 SW 17 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 73 79 SW 17 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 72 76 SW 18 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 71 73 SW 18 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 68 68 SW 18 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 65 65 WSW 18 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 61 61 WSW 18 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 57 57 WSW 18 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 52 52 W 18 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 49 49 W 18 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 47 47 W 17 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 46 46 W 17 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 45 45 W 16 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 43 43 W 16 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 42 42 W 16 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 43 43 W 14 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 47 47 W 13 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 53 54 W 11 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 59 61 WSW 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 63 67 WSW 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 66 72 SW 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 68 76 SW 9 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 71 80 SW 10 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 73 82 SW 11 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 74 82 SW 12 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 75 81 SW 13 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 75 79 SW 13 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 73 75 SW 14 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 70 70 SW 16 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 66 66 WSW 16 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 62 62 WSW 17 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 58 58 WSW 17 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 54 54 W 17 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 51 51 W 17 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 49 49 W 16 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 47 47 W 14 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 46 46 W 13 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 44 44 W 12 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 43 43 W 11 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 44 44 W 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 49 49 W 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 56 57 W 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 62 64 WSW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 66 70 WSW 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 69 75 SW 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 71 79 SSW 9 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 73 82 SSW 10 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 75 84 SW 10 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 76 84 SW 11 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 77 83 SW 11 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 77 81 SW 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 76 78 SW 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 73 73 SW 13 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 69 69 WSW 13 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 64 64 WSW 14 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 60 60 WSW 14 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 56 56 W 14 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]