Detailed Predictions for: Aubrey Cliffs
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 35.349, -112.9497, 6150
LZ Altitude (f): 5400
Sounding

Station:

 KFGZ

Date/Time:

 4 MAY 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Sat 53 53 ESE 5 8 7493 7414 1264 Blue 13
1 AM Sat 53 53 E 4 6 7493 7414 1264 Blue 13
2 AM Sat 50 50 SE 4 6 7416 7337 1187 Blue 10
3 AM Sat 49 49 ESE 5 8 7390 7311 1161 Blue 9
4 AM Sat 48 48 ESE 5 8 7364 7285 1135 Blue 8
5 AM Sat 46 46 SE 6 9 7312 7234 1084 Blue 6
6 AM Sat 47 47 SE 5 8 7338 7259 1109 Blue 7
7 AM Sat 50 50 ESE 5 8 7416 7337 1187 Blue 10
8 AM Sat 55 57 SE 6 11 7596 7517 1367 Blue 17
9 AM Sat 61 65 SSE 10 16 12750 8246 2096 Blue 25
10 AM Sat 66 71 S 13 21 16152 14585 8435 Blue 31
11 AM Sat 68 75 SSW 16 26 17574 16449 10299 White 35
12 Noon Sat 70 77 SSW 18 28 17977 17345 11195 White 37
1 PM Sat 71 78 SSW 19 31 18176 17777 11627 White 38
2 PM Sat 72 78 SSW 21 35 18176 17777 11627 White 38
3 PM Sat 70 75 SSW 21 35 17574 16449 10299 White 35
4 PM Sat 70 73 SSW 23 36 17078 15288 9138 Blue 33
5 PM Sat 70 71 SSW 24 39 16152 14585 8435 Blue 31
6 PM Sat 68 68 SSW 24 37 14693 12455 6305 Blue 28
7 PM Sat 64 64 SSW 23 36 11292 7698 1548 Blue 24
8 PM Sat 61 61 SSW 21 34 7700 7621 1471 Blue 21
9 PM Sat 60 60 SSW 23 32 7674 7595 1445 Blue 20
10 PM Sat 59 59 SSW 23 32 7648 7569 1419 Blue 19
11 PM Sat 57 57 SSW 24 33 7596 7517 1367 Blue 17
12 Midnight Sun 56 56 SSW 23 32 7571 7491 1341 Blue 16
1 AM Sun 54 54 S 24 34 7519 7440 1290 Blue 14
2 AM Sun 52 52 S 26 36 7467 7388 1238 Blue 12
3 AM Sun 50 50 S 25 35 7416 7337 1187 Blue 10
4 AM Sun 49 49 S 23 32 7390 7311 1161 Blue 9
5 AM Sun 49 49 S 26 36 7390 7311 1161 Blue 9
6 AM Sun 48 48 S 26 36 7364 7285 1135 Blue 8
7 AM Sun 49 49 S 31 42 7390 7311 1161 Blue 9
8 AM Sun 51 52 S 32 50 7467 7388 1238 Blue 12
9 AM Sun 53 54 S 32 51 7519 7440 1290 Blue 14
10 AM Sun 55 57 SSW 32 51 7596 7517 1367 Blue 17
11 AM Sun 57 60 SSW 32 50 7674 7595 1445 Blue 20
12 Noon Sun 58 62 SSW 32 50 8294 7647 1497 Blue 22
1 PM Sun 59 64 SSW 32 50 11292 7698 1548 Blue 24
2 PM Sun 59 63 SW 32 50 9396 7672 1522 Blue 23
3 PM Sun 59 63 SW 31 49 9396 7672 1522 Blue 23
4 PM Sun 58 60 SW 29 48 7674 7595 1445 Blue 20
5 PM Sun 57 58 SW 28 46 7622 7543 1393 Blue 18
6 PM Sun 55 55 SW 26 42 7545 7466 1316 Blue 15
7 PM Sun 52 52 WSW 24 39 7467 7388 1238 Blue 12
8 PM Sun 49 49 W 20 33 7390 7311 1161 Blue 9
9 PM Sun 46 46 W 17 26 7312 7234 1084 Blue 6
10 PM Sun 43 43 W 13 19 7235 7157 1007 Blue 3
11 PM Sun 41 41 WNW 10 13 7184 7149 999 Blue 1
12 Midnight Mon 39 39 WNW 8 10 0 6150 0 Blue 0
1 AM Mon 37 37 NW 6 9 0 6150 0 Blue 0
2 AM Mon 36 36 NW 5 8 0 6150 0 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 34 34 NNW 5 6 0 6150 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 33 33 N 5 6 0 6150 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 33 33 NNE 5 6 0 6150 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 35 35 N 5 8 0 6150 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 39 39 N 5 9 0 6150 0 Blue 0
8 AM Mon 43 45 N 6 10 7287 7208 1058 Blue 5
9 AM Mon 48 52 NNW 8 12 7467 7388 1238 Blue 12
10 AM Mon 53 59 NW 9 13 7648 7569 1419 Blue 19
11 AM Mon 57 64 WNW 11 16 11292 7698 1548 Blue 24
12 Noon Mon 61 69 WNW 13 17 15050 13622 7472 Blue 29
1 PM Mon 63 71 W 16 19 16152 14585 8435 Blue 31
2 PM Mon 65 72 W 17 20 16621 14938 8788 Blue 32
3 PM Mon 66 71 W 18 21 16152 14585 8435 Blue 31
4 PM Mon 67 70 W 17 24 15638 14226 8076 Blue 30
5 PM Mon 66 67 W 17 24 14331 10985 4835 Blue 27
6 PM Mon 63 63 W 16 23 9396 7672 1522 Blue 23
7 PM Mon 60 60 WSW 16 21 7674 7595 1445 Blue 20
8 PM Mon 56 56 WSW 14 20 7571 7491 1341 Blue 16
9 PM Mon 53 53 WSW 13 19 7493 7414 1264 Blue 13
10 PM Mon 50 50 SW 13 19 7416 7337 1187 Blue 10
11 PM Mon 48 48 SW 12 18 7364 7285 1135 Blue 8
12 Midnight Tue 46 46 SW 12 18 7312 7234 1084 Blue 6
1 AM Tue 45 45 SSW 11 17 7287 7208 1058 Blue 5
2 AM Tue 44 44 SSW 11 17 7261 7182 1032 Blue 4
3 AM Tue 43 43 SSW 11 16 7235 7157 1007 Blue 3
4 AM Tue 42 42 S 10 14 7209 7149 999 Blue 2
5 AM Tue 42 42 S 10 13 7209 7149 999 Blue 2
6 AM Tue 44 44 SSW 10 13 7261 7182 1032 Blue 4
7 AM Tue 47 47 SSW 9 14 7338 7259 1109 Blue 7
8 AM Tue 51 53 SW 10 16 7493 7414 1264 Blue 13
9 AM Tue 56 60 SW 12 18 7674 7595 1445 Blue 20
10 AM Tue 62 68 WSW 14 21 14693 12455 6305 Blue 28
11 AM Tue 66 73 WSW 17 24 17078 15288 9138 Blue 33
12 Noon Tue 68 76 WSW 18 26 17775 16902 10752 White 36
1 PM Tue 70 78 WSW 19 27 18176 17777 11627 White 38
2 PM Tue 70 77 WSW 19 28 17977 17345 11195 White 37
3 PM Tue 71 76 WSW 19 28 17775 16902 10752 White 36
4 PM Tue 71 74 W 19 26 17372 15984 9834 White 34
5 PM Tue 70 71 W 18 25 16152 14585 8435 Blue 31
6 PM Tue 67 67 W 17 24 14331 10985 4835 Blue 27
7 PM Tue 63 63 W 16 23 9396 7672 1522 Blue 23
8 PM Tue 59 59 W 14 20 7648 7569 1419 Blue 19
9 PM Tue 56 56 W 12 17 7571 7491 1341 Blue 16
10 PM Tue 54 54 W 10 13 7519 7440 1290 Blue 14
11 PM Tue 52 52 WSW 8 10 7467 7388 1238 Blue 12
12 Midnight Wed 50 50 WSW 6 9 7416 7337 1187 Blue 10
1 AM Wed 49 49 WSW 5 9 7390 7311 1161 Blue 9
2 AM Wed 48 48 SW 5 9 7364 7285 1135 Blue 8
3 AM Wed 46 46 WSW 5 8 7312 7234 1084 Blue 6
4 AM Wed 44 44 W 5 8 7261 7182 1032 Blue 4
5 AM Wed 44 44 WNW 5 8 7261 7182 1032 Blue 4
6 AM Wed 46 46 WNW 5 9 7312 7234 1084 Blue 6
7 AM Wed 49 49 NW 6 10 7390 7311 1161 Blue 9
8 AM Wed 53 55 NW 8 12 7545 7466 1316 Blue 15
9 AM Wed 58 62 NW 9 16 8294 7647 1497 Blue 22
10 AM Wed 62 68 NW 11 18 14693 12455 6305 Blue 28
11 AM Wed 66 73 WNW 13 21 17078 15288 9138 Blue 33
12 Noon Wed 68 76 WNW 16 24 17775 16902 10752 White 36
1 PM Wed 69 77 WNW 17 26 17977 17345 11195 White 37
2 PM Wed 69 76 WNW 18 27 17775 16902 10752 White 36
3 PM Wed 69 74 WNW 18 28 17372 15984 9834 White 34
4 PM Wed 68 71 WNW 18 28 16152 14585 8435 Blue 31
5 PM Wed 66 67 WNW 18 27 14331 10985 4835 Blue 27
6 PM Wed 63 63 WNW 17 26 9396 7672 1522 Blue 23
7 PM Wed 60 60 NW 16 25 7674 7595 1445 Blue 20
8 PM Wed 56 56 NW 14 23 7571 7491 1341 Blue 16
9 PM Wed 53 53 NNW 12 19 7493 7414 1264 Blue 13
10 PM Wed 50 50 NNW 10 16 7416 7337 1187 Blue 10
11 PM Wed 47 47 N 9 13 7338 7259 1109 Blue 7
12 Midnight Thu 45 45 N 8 12 7287 7208 1058 Blue 5
1 AM Thu 43 43 N 8 12 7235 7157 1007 Blue 3
2 AM Thu 42 42 N 8 12 7209 7149 999 Blue 2
3 AM Thu 41 41 N 8 11 7184 7149 999 Blue 1
4 AM Thu 40 40 NNE 8 11 7158 7149 999 Blue 0
5 AM Thu 40 40 NNE 8 11 7158 7149 999 Blue 0
6 AM Thu 42 42 NNE 8 12 7209 7149 999 Blue 2
7 AM Thu 44 44 NNE 9 13 7261 7182 1032 Blue 4
8 AM Thu 48 50 NNE 10 16 7416 7337 1187 Blue 10
9 AM Thu 52 56 N 11 17 7571 7491 1341 Blue 16
10 AM Thu 57 63 NNW 12 18 9396 7672 1522 Blue 23
11 AM Thu 61 68 NNW 13 19 14693 12455 6305 Blue 28
12 Noon Thu 64 72 NW 13 20 16621 14938 8788 Blue 32
1 PM Thu 65 73 WNW 14 23 17078 15288 9138 Blue 33
2 PM Thu 66 73 W 14 24 17078 15288 9138 Blue 33
3 PM Thu 67 72 W 16 25 16621 14938 8788 Blue 32
4 PM Thu 67 70 W 16 25 15638 14226 8076 Blue 30
5 PM Thu 66 67 W 16 24 14331 10985 4835 Blue 27
6 PM Thu 64 64 W 14 23 11292 7698 1548 Blue 24
7 PM Thu 60 60 WNW 13 21 7674 7595 1445 Blue 20
8 PM Thu 57 57 WNW 12 19 7596 7517 1367 Blue 17
9 PM Thu 54 54 WNW 11 17 7519 7440 1290 Blue 14
10 PM Thu 51 51 NW 10 14 7441 7362 1212 Blue 11

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]