Detailed Predictions for: Aubrey Cliffs
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 35.349, -112.9497, 6150
LZ Altitude (f): 5400
Sounding

Station:

 KFGZ

Date/Time UTC:

 N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Sun 58 58 SSW 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 57 57 S 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 56 56 S 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 54 54 S 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 52 52 S 11 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 51 51 S 12 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 50 50 S 12 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 56 56 S 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 59 61 S 13 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 65 69 S 16 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 68 74 SSW 19 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 70 78 SSW 24 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 71 79 SSW 25 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 71 79 SSW 26 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 70 77 SSW 27 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 70 75 SSW 27 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 70 73 SSW 27 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 68 69 SSW 27 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 68 68 SSW 28 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 65 65 SSW 28 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 62 62 SSW 28 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 61 61 SW 28 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 59 59 SW 27 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 58 58 SW 27 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 54 54 WSW 24 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 51 51 WSW 20 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 49 49 W 18 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 46 46 W 16 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 43 43 W 14 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 42 42 WNW 13 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 42 42 WNW 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 44 44 NW 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 47 49 NNW 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 51 55 NW 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 54 60 WNW 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 57 65 WNW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 60 68 W 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 62 70 W 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 64 71 W 10 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 64 69 W 11 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 65 69 W 11 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 63 65 W 11 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 63 63 W 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 60 60 W 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 55 55 W 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 52 52 WNW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 49 49 N 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Mon 47 47 NNE 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Tue 45 45 NNE 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Tue 44 44 NNE 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Tue 43 43 NNE 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Tue 41 41 NNE 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Tue 40 40 NE 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Tue 40 40 NE 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Tue 43 43 NE 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Tue 47 47 NE 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Tue 52 54 NE 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Tue 56 60 NE 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Tue 61 66 NE 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Tue 64 71 NE 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Tue 66 74 NNE 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Tue 68 75 NNW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Tue 69 75 NW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Tue 71 76 NW 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Tue 72 75 WNW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Tue 71 72 W 11 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Tue 68 68 W 11 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Tue 64 64 WNW 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Tue 60 60 WNW 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Tue 57 57 NW 11 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Tue 54 54 NNW 11 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Tue 52 52 NNW 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Wed 50 50 N 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 48 48 N 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 47 47 NNE 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 45 45 NNE 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 44 44 NE 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Wed 44 44 NE 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Wed 47 47 NE 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Wed 52 52 NNE 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Wed 57 59 NNE 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Wed 62 66 N 9 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Wed 66 72 NNW 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Wed 70 78 NW 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Wed 73 82 NW 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Wed 74 82 WNW 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Wed 75 82 W 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Wed 76 81 W 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Wed 75 78 W 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Wed 74 75 WSW 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Wed 70 70 WSW 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Wed 66 66 WSW 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Wed 63 63 WSW 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Wed 60 60 WSW 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Wed 57 57 WSW 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Wed 55 55 WSW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Thu 53 53 SSW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Thu 51 51 SE 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Thu 49 49 E 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Thu 47 47 E 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Thu 46 46 ESE 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Thu 47 47 ESE 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 51 51 ESE 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 56 56 SE 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 62 64 SSE 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 66 70 S 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 69 75 SSW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 72 79 SW 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 74 82 SW 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 75 83 WSW 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 76 83 WSW 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 77 82 WSW 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 76 79 WSW 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 75 76 WSW 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 72 72 WSW 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 69 69 WSW 10 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 65 65 WSW 10 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 62 62 WSW 9 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 59 59 WSW 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 57 57 SW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 55 55 SW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 53 53 SSW 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 51 51 S 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 49 49 S 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 47 47 S 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 48 48 S 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 51 51 S 1 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 57 57 S 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 62 64 S 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 67 71 S 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 71 77 SW 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 74 81 SW 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 76 84 SW 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 77 85 SW 9 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 77 84 SW 10 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 77 82 SW 11 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 77 80 WSW 11 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 76 77 WSW 11 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 73 73 WSW 11 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 70 70 WSW 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 66 66 WSW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 63 63 WSW 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 60 60 SW 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]