Detailed Predictions for: Apache Maid
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 34.7258, -111.5513, 7000
LZ Altitude (f): 6200
Sounding

Station:

 KFGZ

Date/Time:

 4 MAY 2024

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Sat 48 48 E 2 3 7462 7383 383 Blue 12
1 AM Sat 47 47 ENE 2 3 7436 7357 357 Blue 11
2 AM Sat 45 45 ENE 2 3 7384 7305 305 Blue 9
3 AM Sat 44 44 ENE 3 4 7358 7279 279 Blue 8
4 AM Sat 44 44 ENE 3 4 7358 7279 279 Blue 8
5 AM Sat 42 42 ENE 3 4 7306 7227 227 Blue 6
6 AM Sat 44 44 E 3 4 7358 7279 279 Blue 8
7 AM Sat 47 47 ESE 4 5 7436 7357 357 Blue 11
8 AM Sat 53 55 S 5 8 7644 7565 565 Blue 19
9 AM Sat 61 65 SSW 6 10 15046 13593 6593 Blue 29
10 AM Sat 63 69 SW 10 16 16320 15295 8295 White 33
11 AM Sat 65 72 SW 11 18 16932 16930 9930 White 36
12 Noon Sat 67 75 SW 12 20 17542 17542 10542 White 39
1 PM Sat 67 75 SW 13 21 17542 17542 10542 White 39
2 PM Sat 68 75 SW 13 23 17542 17542 10542 White 39
3 PM Sat 68 73 SSW 14 23 17135 17135 10135 White 37
4 PM Sat 69 72 SW 16 26 16932 16930 9930 White 36
5 PM Sat 67 68 SW 17 27 16115 14942 7942 White 32
6 PM Sat 66 66 SW 17 27 15640 14222 7222 Blue 30
7 PM Sat 62 62 SSW 13 23 13862 8994 1994 Blue 26
8 PM Sat 56 56 SSW 12 20 7670 7591 591 Blue 20
9 PM Sat 54 54 SSW 11 17 7618 7539 539 Blue 18
10 PM Sat 52 52 SSW 11 17 7566 7487 487 Blue 16
11 PM Sat 51 51 SSW 12 18 7540 7461 461 Blue 15
12 Midnight Sun 50 50 SSW 12 18 7514 7435 435 Blue 14
1 AM Sun 49 49 SSW 13 19 7488 7409 409 Blue 13
2 AM Sun 48 48 SSW 13 19 7462 7383 383 Blue 12
3 AM Sun 47 47 S 13 19 7436 7357 357 Blue 11
4 AM Sun 45 45 S 14 20 7384 7305 305 Blue 9
5 AM Sun 44 44 S 16 21 7358 7279 279 Blue 8
6 AM Sun 44 44 S 17 25 7358 7279 279 Blue 8
7 AM Sun 43 43 S 20 28 7332 7253 253 Blue 7
8 AM Sun 48 50 SSW 23 35 7514 7435 435 Blue 14
9 AM Sun 54 57 SSW 23 37 7696 7617 617 Blue 21
10 AM Sun 57 61 SSW 27 43 12665 8182 1182 Blue 25
11 AM Sun 59 63 SSW 28 46 14319 10865 3865 Blue 27
12 Noon Sun 60 63 SSW 28 47 14319 10865 3865 Blue 27
1 PM Sun 61 64 SSW 28 46 14685 12395 5395 Blue 28
2 PM Sun 61 63 SSW 28 46 14319 10865 3865 Blue 27
3 PM Sun 61 62 SSW 29 47 13862 8994 1994 Blue 26
4 PM Sun 60 60 SSW 29 47 11139 7695 695 Blue 24
5 PM Sun 59 59 SSW 29 47 9172 7669 669 Blue 23
6 PM Sun 56 56 SW 28 46 7670 7591 591 Blue 20
7 PM Sun 53 53 SW 27 43 7592 7513 513 Blue 17
8 PM Sun 50 50 SW 25 40 7514 7435 435 Blue 14
9 PM Sun 47 47 SW 21 34 7436 7357 357 Blue 11
10 PM Sun 44 44 WSW 17 26 7358 7279 279 Blue 8
11 PM Sun 42 42 WSW 13 19 7306 7227 227 Blue 6
12 Midnight Mon 40 40 WSW 10 14 7254 7175 175 Blue 4
1 AM Mon 38 38 W 8 10 7202 7149 149 Blue 2
2 AM Mon 36 36 W 5 8 7150 7149 149 Blue 0
3 AM Mon 33 33 NW 4 6 0 7000 0 Blue 0
4 AM Mon 31 31 NNE 4 6 0 7000 0 Blue 0
5 AM Mon 31 31 NE 4 6 0 7000 0 Blue 0
6 AM Mon 33 33 NNE 4 8 0 7000 0 Blue 0
7 AM Mon 37 37 NNW 4 9 7176 7149 149 Blue 1
8 AM Mon 42 44 NW 5 10 7358 7279 279 Blue 8
9 AM Mon 47 51 WNW 6 12 7540 7461 461 Blue 15
10 AM Mon 52 58 W 9 14 8217 7643 643 Blue 22
11 AM Mon 57 64 WSW 11 17 14685 12395 5395 Blue 28
12 Noon Mon 60 68 WSW 13 19 16115 14942 7942 White 32
1 PM Mon 62 70 WSW 14 23 16525 16001 9001 White 34
2 PM Mon 63 70 WSW 17 25 16525 16001 9001 White 34
3 PM Mon 65 70 WSW 19 28 16525 16001 9001 White 34
4 PM Mon 66 69 WSW 20 31 16320 15295 8295 White 33
5 PM Mon 65 66 WSW 21 32 15640 14222 7222 Blue 30
6 PM Mon 62 62 WSW 21 31 13862 8994 1994 Blue 26
7 PM Mon 57 57 SW 19 28 7696 7617 617 Blue 21
8 PM Mon 53 53 SW 18 26 7592 7513 513 Blue 17
9 PM Mon 50 50 SW 17 24 7514 7435 435 Blue 14
10 PM Mon 48 48 SW 14 23 7462 7383 383 Blue 12
11 PM Mon 46 46 SW 13 20 7410 7331 331 Blue 10
12 Midnight Tue 44 44 SW 12 19 7358 7279 279 Blue 8
1 AM Tue 43 43 SW 11 18 7332 7253 253 Blue 7
2 AM Tue 42 42 SW 11 17 7306 7227 227 Blue 6
3 AM Tue 40 40 SW 10 17 7254 7175 175 Blue 4
4 AM Tue 39 39 SW 10 17 7228 7149 149 Blue 3
5 AM Tue 39 39 SW 10 17 7228 7149 149 Blue 3
6 AM Tue 41 41 SW 11 17 7280 7201 201 Blue 5
7 AM Tue 45 45 SW 12 18 7384 7305 305 Blue 9
8 AM Tue 49 51 SW 13 19 7540 7461 461 Blue 15
9 AM Tue 54 58 SW 14 21 8217 7643 643 Blue 22
10 AM Tue 58 64 SW 17 25 14685 12395 5395 Blue 28
11 AM Tue 62 69 SW 18 27 16320 15295 8295 White 33
12 Noon Tue 65 73 SW 19 29 17135 17135 10135 White 37
1 PM Tue 66 74 SW 20 31 17338 17338 10338 White 38
2 PM Tue 67 74 SW 21 32 17338 17338 10338 White 38
3 PM Tue 68 73 SW 23 33 17135 17135 10135 White 37
4 PM Tue 69 72 SW 23 34 16932 16930 9930 White 36
5 PM Tue 68 69 SW 21 33 16320 15295 8295 White 33
6 PM Tue 64 64 SW 19 31 14685 12395 5395 Blue 28
7 PM Tue 60 60 SW 17 27 11139 7695 695 Blue 24
8 PM Tue 55 55 SW 14 23 7644 7565 565 Blue 19
9 PM Tue 52 52 SW 12 18 7566 7487 487 Blue 16
10 PM Tue 50 50 SSW 10 14 7514 7435 435 Blue 14
11 PM Tue 48 48 SSW 8 11 7462 7383 383 Blue 12
12 Midnight Wed 46 46 S 6 10 7410 7331 331 Blue 10
1 AM Wed 45 45 S 5 9 7384 7305 305 Blue 9
2 AM Wed 44 44 S 5 9 7358 7279 279 Blue 8
3 AM Wed 42 42 S 5 8 7306 7227 227 Blue 6
4 AM Wed 40 40 SSE 5 8 7254 7175 175 Blue 4
5 AM Wed 40 40 SSE 5 8 7254 7175 175 Blue 4
6 AM Wed 42 42 S 6 9 7306 7227 227 Blue 6
7 AM Wed 45 45 SSW 8 10 7384 7305 305 Blue 9
8 AM Wed 49 51 SW 9 12 7540 7461 461 Blue 15
9 AM Wed 54 58 SW 11 16 8217 7643 643 Blue 22
10 AM Wed 59 65 WSW 13 20 15046 13593 6593 Blue 29
11 AM Wed 63 70 WSW 16 24 16525 16001 9001 White 34
12 Noon Wed 65 73 WSW 17 26 17135 17135 10135 White 37
1 PM Wed 67 75 WSW 18 28 17542 17542 10542 White 39
2 PM Wed 67 74 WSW 19 29 17338 17338 10338 White 38
3 PM Wed 68 73 WSW 20 31 17135 17135 10135 White 37
4 PM Wed 67 70 WSW 21 32 16525 16001 9001 White 34
5 PM Wed 66 67 WSW 21 32 15910 14584 7584 White 31
6 PM Wed 63 63 W 20 29 14319 10865 3865 Blue 27
7 PM Wed 58 58 W 18 27 8217 7643 643 Blue 22
8 PM Wed 54 54 W 16 24 7618 7539 539 Blue 18
9 PM Wed 51 51 NW 13 20 7540 7461 461 Blue 15
10 PM Wed 49 49 NNE 11 16 7488 7409 409 Blue 13
11 PM Wed 47 47 NE 9 13 7436 7357 357 Blue 11
12 Midnight Thu 45 45 NE 9 13 7384 7305 305 Blue 9
1 AM Thu 43 43 ENE 9 14 7332 7253 253 Blue 7
2 AM Thu 41 41 ENE 10 16 7280 7201 201 Blue 5
3 AM Thu 39 39 ENE 10 14 7228 7149 149 Blue 3
4 AM Thu 37 37 ENE 9 13 7176 7149 149 Blue 1
5 AM Thu 37 37 ENE 9 13 7176 7149 149 Blue 1
6 AM Thu 39 39 ENE 9 14 7228 7149 149 Blue 3
7 AM Thu 43 43 E 10 16 7332 7253 253 Blue 7
8 AM Thu 47 49 E 11 17 7488 7409 409 Blue 13
9 AM Thu 52 56 ESE 12 18 7670 7591 591 Blue 20
10 AM Thu 57 63 SSW 12 19 14319 10865 3865 Blue 27
11 AM Thu 61 68 WSW 13 20 16115 14942 7942 White 32
12 Noon Thu 63 71 WSW 14 23 16728 16471 9471 White 35
1 PM Thu 65 73 WSW 16 25 17135 17135 10135 White 37
2 PM Thu 65 72 WSW 17 26 16932 16930 9930 White 36
3 PM Thu 66 71 WSW 17 27 16728 16471 9471 White 35
4 PM Thu 66 69 WSW 17 27 16320 15295 8295 White 33
5 PM Thu 65 66 WSW 17 26 15640 14222 7222 Blue 30
6 PM Thu 62 62 WSW 16 24 13862 8994 1994 Blue 26
7 PM Thu 58 58 WSW 14 21 8217 7643 643 Blue 22
8 PM Thu 54 54 WSW 12 19 7618 7539 539 Blue 18
9 PM Thu 51 51 SSW 10 17 7540 7461 461 Blue 15
10 PM Thu 48 48 ESE 8 14 7462 7383 383 Blue 12

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]