Detailed Predictions for: Wolf Peak
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 38.340, -119.5880, 9500
LZ Altitude (f): 6800
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time UTC:

 N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Wed 54 54 NW 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 54 54 NW 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 54 54 NNW 1 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 53 53 NNW 1 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 52 52 NNW 1 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Wed 52 52 NNW 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Wed 51 51 NNW 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Wed 55 55 NNW 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Wed 60 61 E 2 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Wed 64 67 E 2 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Wed 69 74 E 2 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Wed 71 76 WNW 4 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Wed 72 78 WNW 4 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Wed 73 79 WNW 4 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Wed 72 76 WNW 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Wed 70 73 WNW 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Wed 70 72 WNW 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Wed 68 70 WSW 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Wed 66 66 WSW 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Wed 64 64 WSW 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Wed 62 62 WNW 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Wed 60 60 WNW 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Wed 57 57 WNW 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Wed 56 56 NNW 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Thu 54 54 NNW 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Thu 54 54 NNW 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Thu 54 54 N 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Thu 53 53 N 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Thu 52 52 N 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Thu 52 52 NE 0 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 50 50 NE 0 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 55 55 NE 0 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 59 60 E 3 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 62 65 E 3 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 68 73 E 3 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 70 74 ENE 4 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 71 76 ENE 4 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 73 78 ENE 4 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 71 74 S 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 70 72 S 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 69 71 S 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 67 69 W 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 64 64 W 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 62 62 W 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 60 60 W 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 58 58 W 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 57 57 W 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 56 56 WSW 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 55 55 WSW 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 54 54 WSW 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 53 53 W 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 51 51 W 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 50 50 W 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 50 50 W 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 51 51 W 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 53 53 W 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 56 57 W 2 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 58 61 W 2 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 60 65 W 2 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 62 65 WSW 8 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 63 67 WSW 8 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 64 68 WSW 8 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 64 68 WSW 14 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 64 67 WSW 14 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 63 65 WSW 14 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 61 64 WSW 20 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 59 60 WSW 20 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 56 56 WSW 20 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 53 53 WSW 14 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 50 50 WSW 14 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 48 48 WSW 14 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 46 46 SW 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 44 44 SW 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 43 43 SW 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 42 42 SW 3 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 41 41 SW 3 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 40 40 SW 3 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 40 40 SW 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 42 42 SW 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 46 46 SW 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 50 51 WSW 0 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 54 57 WSW 0 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 58 63 WSW 0 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 61 68 WSW 4 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 63 71 WSW 4 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 64 73 WSW 4 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 65 73 WSW 10 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 65 72 WSW 10 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 64 69 WSW 10 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 63 66 WSW 11 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 60 61 WSW 11 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 58 58 WSW 11 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 55 55 W 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 52 52 W 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 50 50 W 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 48 48 SW 1 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 47 47 SW 1 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 46 46 SW 1 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 45 45 W 0 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 44 44 W 0 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 43 43 W 0 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 44 44 ENE 0 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 47 47 ENE 0 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 50 50 ENE 0 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 54 55 ENE 1 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 57 60 ENE 1 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 60 65 ENE 1 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 63 70 E 3 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 65 73 E 3 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 66 75 E 3 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 67 75 W 4 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 68 75 W 4 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 68 73 W 4 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 67 69 W 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 65 66 W 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 61 61 W 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 58 58 W 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 56 56 W 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 54 54 W 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 52 52 WSW 1 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 51 51 WSW 1 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 50 50 WSW 1 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 49 49 WNW 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 48 48 WNW 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 47 47 WNW 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 47 47 E 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 50 50 E 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 54 54 E 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 58 59 E 0 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 61 64 E 0 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 64 69 E 0 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 66 73 E 3 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 68 76 E 3 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 69 78 E 3 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 70 78 SW 5 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 71 78 SW 5 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 71 76 SW 5 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 70 73 W 10 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 67 68 W 10 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 64 64 W 10 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 60 60 W 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 58 58 W 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 56 56 W 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]