Detailed Predictions for: Walts
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 36.472708, -118.115092, 9085
LZ Altitude (f): 3640
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time UTC:

 N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Wed 62 62 WSW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 61 61 W 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 59 59 WNW 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 59 59 WNW 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 58 58 NW 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Wed 57 57 NW 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Wed 59 59 NW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Wed 62 62 NW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Wed 66 67 NNW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Wed 71 74 N 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Wed 73 78 NNE 9 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Wed 75 82 NE 11 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Wed 78 86 E 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Wed 79 87 ESE 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Wed 79 87 ESE 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Wed 81 88 ESE 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Wed 79 84 SE 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Wed 79 81 SE 11 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Wed 77 78 SSE 11 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Wed 73 73 SSE 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Wed 69 69 WSW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Wed 66 66 W 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Wed 64 64 WNW 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Wed 62 62 NW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Thu 62 62 NW 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Thu 61 61 NW 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Thu 59 59 NW 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Thu 59 59 NW 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Thu 59 59 NW 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Thu 58 58 NW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 59 59 NW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 63 63 NNW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 66 67 N 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 71 74 NE 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 73 78 NE 11 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 75 82 ENE 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 78 86 E 13 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 78 86 ESE 14 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 78 86 SE 16 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 80 86 SE 17 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 78 82 SE 17 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 77 79 SSE 16 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 75 76 SSE 14 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 71 71 S 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 67 67 S 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 64 64 SSW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 62 62 W 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 61 61 W 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 59 59 W 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 58 58 WNW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 57 57 WNW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 56 56 WNW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 55 55 W 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 55 55 W 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 57 57 WSW 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 59 59 S 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 62 63 SSE 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 65 68 SSE 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 68 73 SSE 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 70 77 SSE 17 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 72 80 SSE 19 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 73 82 S 20 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 74 82 S 20 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 75 81 S 20 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 74 79 SSW 19 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 73 76 SW 18 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 70 71 SW 18 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 66 66 WSW 17 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 62 62 W 16 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 59 59 W 13 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 57 57 W 11 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 55 55 W 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 54 54 W 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 53 53 W 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 52 52 W 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 51 51 W 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 50 50 WNW 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 50 50 WNW 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 52 52 NW 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 55 55 NNW 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 59 60 N 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 63 66 NE 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 66 71 ESE 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 69 76 SE 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 71 79 SSE 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 73 82 SSE 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 74 82 SSE 13 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 75 82 SSE 13 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 74 79 S 13 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 72 75 S 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 69 70 S 10 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 66 66 SSW 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 63 63 SW 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 60 60 SW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 58 58 W 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 56 56 W 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 55 55 W 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 54 54 WNW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 54 54 WNW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 53 53 WNW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 53 53 NW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 53 53 NW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 55 55 NW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 58 58 NNW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 61 62 N 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 64 67 NNE 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 66 71 ENE 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 68 75 E 11 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 70 79 ESE 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 71 80 ESE 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 72 80 SE 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 73 80 SE 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 73 78 SSE 12 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 72 75 SSE 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 70 71 S 11 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 67 67 S 9 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 64 64 S 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 62 62 SSW 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 60 60 WSW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 58 58 W 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 56 56 W 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 55 55 W 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 54 54 WNW 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 53 53 WNW 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 53 53 WNW 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 54 54 WNW 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 57 57 NNW 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 60 60 NNE 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 64 66 ENE 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 66 69 ENE 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 68 73 E 9 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 70 77 ESE 11 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 72 81 ESE 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 74 83 SE 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 75 83 SSE 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 76 83 SSE 13 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 75 80 SSE 13 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 74 77 SSE 13 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 72 73 S 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 69 69 S 11 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 66 66 S 9 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 64 64 SSW 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 62 62 WSW 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]