Detailed Predictions for: Sweetwater
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 38.394, -119.370, 9500
LZ Altitude (f): 7400
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time UTC:

 N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Wed 54 54 N 14 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 53 53 N 14 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 53 53 NNW 11 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 52 52 NNW 11 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 52 52 NNW 11 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Wed 52 52 N 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Wed 50 50 N 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Wed 54 54 N 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Wed 60 61 W 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Wed 60 63 W 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Wed 65 70 W 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Wed 68 75 NW 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Wed 70 78 NW 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Wed 70 78 NW 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Wed 71 76 NW 13 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Wed 70 74 NW 13 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Wed 68 71 NW 13 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Wed 68 70 W 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Wed 66 67 W 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Wed 65 65 W 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Wed 63 63 NW 13 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Wed 59 59 NW 13 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Wed 57 57 NW 13 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Wed 54 54 NNW 16 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Thu 54 54 NNW 16 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Thu 53 53 NNW 16 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Thu 53 53 N 14 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Thu 52 52 N 14 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Thu 52 52 N 14 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Thu 51 51 N 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 49 49 N 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 53 53 N 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 59 60 E 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 60 63 E 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 64 69 E 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 67 73 E 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 68 75 E 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 69 76 E 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 69 71 SW 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 68 69 SW 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 67 68 SW 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 66 67 W 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 63 63 W 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 62 62 W 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 61 61 WSW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 59 59 WSW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 56 56 WSW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 54 54 WSW 12 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 53 53 WSW 12 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 52 52 WSW 12 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 51 51 WSW 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 50 50 WSW 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 49 49 WSW 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 49 49 W 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 51 51 W 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 53 53 W 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 56 57 W 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 59 62 W 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 61 66 W 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 62 65 SW 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 63 66 SW 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 63 67 SW 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 62 65 WSW 14 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 62 65 WSW 14 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 61 63 WSW 14 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 60 63 WSW 20 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 58 59 WSW 20 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 56 56 WSW 20 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 54 54 WSW 17 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 51 51 WSW 17 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 47 47 WSW 17 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 44 44 WSW 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 42 42 WSW 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 41 41 WSW 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 40 40 SW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 38 38 SW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 37 37 SW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 37 37 SW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 40 40 SW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 44 44 SW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 48 49 WSW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 51 54 WSW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 54 59 WSW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 56 63 WNW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 59 67 WNW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 61 70 WNW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 62 70 W 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 63 69 W 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 63 68 W 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 61 64 W 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 60 61 W 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 58 58 W 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 56 56 WNW 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 53 53 WNW 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 49 49 WNW 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 46 46 WSW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 44 44 WSW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 43 43 WSW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 43 43 W 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 42 42 W 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 42 42 W 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 43 43 W 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 46 46 W 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 49 49 W 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 53 54 N 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 55 58 N 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 57 62 N 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 59 66 ENE 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 61 69 ENE 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 64 73 ENE 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 65 73 NE 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 65 72 NE 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 65 70 NE 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 64 66 NW 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 63 64 NW 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 62 62 NW 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 60 60 NW 10 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 57 57 NW 10 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 53 53 NW 10 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 50 50 W 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 48 48 W 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 48 48 W 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 47 47 W 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 45 45 W 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 45 45 W 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 45 45 W 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 48 48 W 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 53 53 W 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 57 58 E 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 60 63 E 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 61 66 E 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 63 70 E 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 65 73 E 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 67 76 E 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 68 76 SE 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 69 76 SE 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 69 74 SE 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 68 70 WNW 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 67 68 WNW 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 65 65 WNW 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 62 62 W 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 58 58 W 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 54 54 W 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]