Detailed Predictions for: Paiute
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 37.519075, -118.294555, 8021
LZ Altitude (f): 4283
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time UTC:

 N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Wed 67 67 ENE 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 66 66 ENE 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 65 65 NNE 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 64 64 NNE 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 62 62 NNE 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Wed 62 62 NNE 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Wed 62 62 NNE 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Wed 60 60 NNE 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Wed 63 64 WNW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Wed 66 69 WNW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Wed 70 75 WNW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Wed 72 79 W 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Wed 74 82 W 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Wed 76 84 W 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Wed 79 84 W 10 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Wed 80 84 W 10 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Wed 80 83 W 10 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Wed 81 82 NW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Wed 80 80 NW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Wed 79 79 NW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Wed 78 78 NNW 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Wed 71 71 NNW 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Wed 69 69 NNW 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Wed 69 69 N 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Thu 67 67 N 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Thu 66 66 N 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Thu 65 65 NE 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Thu 64 64 NE 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Thu 63 63 NE 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Thu 62 62 NNE 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 62 62 NNE 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 61 61 NNE 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 62 63 SW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 67 70 SW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 69 74 SW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 71 78 S 11 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 73 81 S 11 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 76 84 S 11 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 78 83 S 12 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 79 83 S 12 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 79 82 S 12 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 79 81 SW 11 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 80 81 SW 11 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 78 78 SW 11 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 75 75 WNW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 72 72 WNW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 69 69 WNW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 66 66 WNW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 64 64 WNW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 64 64 WNW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 63 63 WNW 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 62 62 WNW 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 61 61 WNW 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 60 60 WSW 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 59 59 WSW 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 59 59 WSW 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 59 60 SSW 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 61 64 SSW 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 64 69 SSW 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 67 74 S 14 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 70 78 S 14 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 72 81 S 14 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 74 82 S 16 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 75 81 S 16 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 75 80 S 16 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 74 76 SW 13 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 73 74 SW 13 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 70 70 SW 13 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 67 67 WNW 12 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 64 64 WNW 12 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 61 61 WNW 12 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 59 59 NW 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 57 57 NW 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 55 55 NW 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 54 54 NW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 53 53 NW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 52 52 NW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 52 52 NW 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 52 52 NW 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 52 52 NW 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 53 54 WNW 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 56 59 WNW 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 59 64 WNW 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 62 69 SW 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 65 73 SW 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 68 77 SW 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 71 79 SW 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 73 80 SW 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 74 79 SW 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 74 77 WSW 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 73 74 WSW 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 71 71 WSW 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 69 69 W 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 66 66 W 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 63 63 W 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 60 60 NW 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 58 58 NW 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 57 57 NW 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 56 56 NW 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 55 55 NW 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 54 54 NW 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 54 54 NNW 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 54 54 NNW 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 55 55 NNW 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 56 58 NNW 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 58 61 NNW 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 60 65 NNW 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 63 70 S 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 66 74 S 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 69 78 S 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 72 80 S 11 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 74 81 S 11 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 75 80 S 11 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 75 78 S 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 74 75 S 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 72 72 S 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 70 70 SE 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 67 67 SE 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 65 65 SE 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 62 62 WSW 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 60 60 WSW 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 59 59 WSW 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 58 58 NW 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 57 57 NW 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 56 56 NW 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 56 56 NNW 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 56 56 NNW 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 57 57 NNW 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 59 61 S 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 61 64 S 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 64 69 S 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 67 74 SSE 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 70 79 SSE 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 72 81 SSE 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 74 82 SSE 12 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 76 83 SSE 12 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 78 83 SSE 12 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 78 81 S 11 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 77 78 S 11 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 75 75 S 11 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 73 73 SSE 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 70 70 SSE 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 68 68 SSE 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]