Detailed Predictions for: McGee Creek
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 37.589308, -118.817462, 9082
LZ Altitude (f): 7122
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time UTC:

 N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Wed 63 63 W 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 60 60 W 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 58 58 W 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 55 55 W 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 55 55 W 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Wed 53 53 W 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Wed 51 51 W 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Wed 56 56 W 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Wed 59 60 NW 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Wed 62 65 NW 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Wed 67 72 NW 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Wed 70 77 ENE 5 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Wed 74 82 ENE 5 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Wed 75 83 ENE 5 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Wed 76 82 NE 5 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Wed 76 81 NE 5 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Wed 76 79 NE 5 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Wed 76 77 W 9 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Wed 76 76 W 9 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Wed 77 77 W 9 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Wed 76 76 W 9 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Wed 72 72 W 9 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Wed 68 68 W 9 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Wed 65 65 WNW 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Thu 63 63 WNW 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Thu 60 60 WNW 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Thu 58 58 W 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Thu 55 55 W 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Thu 55 55 W 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Thu 53 53 W 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 51 51 W 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 56 56 W 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 59 60 ENE 3 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 61 64 ENE 3 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 66 71 ENE 3 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 71 77 S 8 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 73 80 S 8 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 75 82 S 8 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 76 80 S 6 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 75 79 S 6 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 74 77 S 6 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 74 76 WNW 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 74 75 WNW 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 73 73 WNW 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 72 72 W 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 70 70 W 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 66 66 W 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 63 63 W 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 60 60 W 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 58 58 W 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 55 55 W 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 53 53 W 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 51 51 W 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 50 50 WSW 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 51 51 WSW 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 54 54 WSW 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 56 57 WSW 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 59 62 WSW 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 62 67 WSW 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 65 72 S 4 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 67 75 S 4 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 68 76 S 4 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 69 76 SW 13 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 69 75 SW 13 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 68 72 SW 13 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 67 70 WSW 19 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 66 67 WSW 19 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 65 65 WSW 19 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 63 63 WSW 16 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 60 60 WSW 16 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 56 56 WSW 16 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 53 53 WSW 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 50 50 WSW 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 48 48 WSW 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 46 46 WSW 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 44 44 WSW 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 42 42 WSW 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 42 42 WSW 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 44 44 WSW 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 46 46 WSW 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 50 51 W 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 54 57 W 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 57 62 W 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 61 68 WSW 3 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 64 72 WSW 3 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 67 76 WSW 3 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 69 77 WSW 6 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 70 76 WSW 6 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 70 75 WSW 6 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 69 72 WSW 11 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 69 70 WSW 11 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 68 68 WSW 11 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 66 66 WSW 10 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 63 63 WSW 10 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 59 59 WSW 10 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 56 56 W 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 53 53 W 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 51 51 W 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 49 49 W 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 47 47 W 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 46 46 W 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 46 46 W 1 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 48 48 W 1 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 51 51 W 1 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 54 55 N 1 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 57 60 N 1 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 60 65 N 1 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 63 70 E 4 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 66 74 E 4 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 68 77 E 4 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 70 78 E 4 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 71 78 E 4 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 71 76 E 4 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 71 73 WSW 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 71 72 WSW 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 71 71 WSW 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 70 70 WSW 6 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 67 67 WSW 6 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 63 63 WSW 6 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 59 59 SW 1 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 56 56 SW 1 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 54 54 SW 1 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 52 52 SW 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 50 50 SW 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 49 49 SW 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 49 49 SW 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 51 51 SW 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 54 54 SW 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 57 58 ENE 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 60 63 ENE 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 63 68 ENE 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 66 73 E 5 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 69 77 E 5 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 71 80 E 5 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 73 81 ESE 5 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 74 81 ESE 5 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 74 79 ESE 5 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 74 77 SSW 5 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 74 75 SSW 5 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 74 74 SSW 5 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 72 72 WSW 3 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 69 69 WSW 3 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 65 65 WSW 3 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]