Detailed Predictions for: Lake Isabella Ground Launch Center
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 35.654428, -118.297628, 5000
LZ Altitude (f): 2591
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time UTC:

 N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Wed 82 82 WSW 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 79 79 WSW 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 77 77 WSW 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 71 71 WSW 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 70 70 W 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Wed 69 69 W 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Wed 67 67 W 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Wed 70 70 NW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Wed 73 74 WNW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Wed 78 81 W 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Wed 84 89 W 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Wed 88 95 WSW 13 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Wed 92 100 WSW 16 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Wed 96 105 WSW 19 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Wed 97 105 WSW 21 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Wed 98 105 W 24 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Wed 98 103 W 25 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Wed 96 99 W 25 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Wed 96 97 W 25 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Wed 93 93 W 26 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Wed 87 87 W 26 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Wed 85 85 WSW 24 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Wed 83 83 WSW 21 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Wed 81 81 WSW 19 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Thu 80 80 WSW 17 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Thu 77 77 WSW 13 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Thu 75 75 WSW 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Thu 71 71 WSW 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Thu 69 69 WSW 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Thu 68 68 WNW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 66 66 WNW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 69 69 WNW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 72 73 W 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 77 80 W 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 83 88 W 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 86 93 W 11 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 91 99 W 11 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 96 105 W 11 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 98 106 W 19 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 98 105 W 19 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 98 103 W 19 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 96 99 W 23 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 94 95 W 23 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 90 90 W 23 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 85 85 W 20 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 82 82 W 20 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 81 81 W 20 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 79 79 W 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 76 76 W 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 73 73 W 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 70 70 WNW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 67 67 WNW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 65 65 WNW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 64 64 W 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 65 65 W 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 67 67 W 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 70 71 W 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 74 77 W 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 78 83 W 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 83 90 WSW 13 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 87 96 WSW 13 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 90 99 WSW 13 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 92 100 W 25 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 92 99 W 25 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 92 97 W 25 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 90 93 W 27 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 87 88 W 27 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 83 83 W 27 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 80 80 W 26 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 77 77 W 26 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 75 75 W 26 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 72 72 W 20 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 69 69 W 20 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 67 67 W 20 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 64 64 W 14 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 61 61 W 14 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 59 59 W 14 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 58 58 W 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 59 59 W 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 62 62 W 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 65 66 W 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 70 73 W 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 76 81 W 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 81 88 W 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 85 94 W 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 88 97 W 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 90 98 W 21 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 90 97 W 21 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 90 95 W 21 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 88 91 W 25 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 85 86 W 25 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 83 83 W 25 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 80 80 W 24 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 77 77 W 24 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 75 75 W 24 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 72 72 W 18 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 70 70 W 18 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 68 68 W 18 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 66 66 WNW 11 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 63 63 WNW 11 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 61 61 WNW 11 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 60 60 WNW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 61 61 WNW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 64 64 WNW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 68 69 W 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 72 75 W 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 77 82 W 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 82 89 WSW 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 86 95 WSW 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 90 99 WSW 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 92 100 WSW 14 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 93 100 WSW 14 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 92 97 WSW 14 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 91 94 W 21 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 89 90 W 21 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 86 86 W 21 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 83 83 W 18 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 80 80 W 18 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 78 78 W 18 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 75 75 W 12 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 73 73 W 12 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 71 71 W 12 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 69 69 WNW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 66 66 WNW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 64 64 WNW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 63 63 WNW 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 64 64 WNW 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 67 67 WNW 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 71 72 NW 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 75 78 NW 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 80 85 NW 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 85 92 SE 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 90 99 SE 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 93 102 SE 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 96 104 S 14 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 97 104 S 14 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 97 102 S 14 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 96 99 WSW 18 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 93 94 WSW 18 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 90 90 WSW 18 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 86 86 W 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 83 83 W 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 81 81 W 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]