Detailed Predictions for: Gunter
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 37.468227, -118.263270, 9604
LZ Altitude (f): 4184
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time UTC:

 N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Wed 76 76 ENE 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 74 74 ENE 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 73 73 NE 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 72 72 NE 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 71 71 NE 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Wed 70 70 NNE 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Wed 69 69 NNE 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Wed 67 67 NNE 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Wed 71 72 WNW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Wed 72 75 WNW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Wed 75 80 WNW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Wed 78 85 W 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Wed 80 88 W 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Wed 82 90 W 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Wed 84 90 W 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Wed 85 90 W 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Wed 86 90 W 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Wed 86 87 SW 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Wed 86 86 SW 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Wed 85 85 SW 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Wed 84 84 NNW 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Wed 81 81 NNW 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Wed 79 79 NNW 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Wed 77 77 NNE 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Thu 77 77 NNE 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Thu 74 74 NNE 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Thu 73 73 NE 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Thu 72 72 NE 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Thu 71 71 NE 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Thu 70 70 N 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 69 69 N 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 67 67 N 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 71 72 SW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 72 75 SW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 75 80 SW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 77 84 S 10 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 79 87 S 10 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 82 91 S 10 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 84 90 S 11 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 85 90 S 11 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 85 88 S 11 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 86 88 SSW 11 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 84 85 SSW 11 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 84 84 SSW 11 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 83 83 NW 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 80 80 NW 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 78 78 NW 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 75 75 WNW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 74 74 WNW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 73 73 WNW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 72 72 WNW 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 71 71 WNW 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 69 69 WNW 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 68 68 SSW 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 67 67 SSW 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 66 66 SSW 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 66 67 S 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 68 71 S 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 71 76 S 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 74 81 S 13 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 76 84 S 13 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 78 87 S 13 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 79 87 S 16 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 80 87 S 16 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 81 86 S 16 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 80 82 SW 14 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 79 80 SW 14 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 77 77 SW 14 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 75 75 WNW 12 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 72 72 WNW 12 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 70 70 WNW 12 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 67 67 NW 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 65 65 NW 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 63 63 NW 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 62 62 NNW 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 60 60 NNW 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 59 59 NNW 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 58 58 NW 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 59 59 NW 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 60 60 NW 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 62 63 WNW 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 64 67 WNW 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 66 71 WNW 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 68 75 SSW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 71 79 SSW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 74 83 SSW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 77 85 SW 11 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 78 85 SW 11 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 79 84 SW 11 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 80 83 WSW 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 79 80 WSW 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 78 78 WSW 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 76 76 SW 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 74 74 SW 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 71 71 SW 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 69 69 NW 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 67 67 NW 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 65 65 NW 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 64 64 NW 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 63 63 NW 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 63 63 NW 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 63 63 NNW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 63 63 NNW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 64 64 NNW 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 65 67 NNW 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 66 69 NNW 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 67 72 NNW 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 69 76 SSE 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 72 80 SSE 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 75 84 SSE 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 78 86 S 10 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 80 87 S 10 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 81 86 S 10 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 81 84 S 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 81 82 S 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 80 80 S 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 78 78 SE 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 76 76 SE 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 73 73 SE 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 70 70 SW 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 68 68 SW 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 67 67 SW 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 66 66 NW 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 65 65 NW 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 64 64 NW 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 64 64 N 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 65 65 N 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 66 66 N 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 68 70 S 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 69 72 S 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 70 75 S 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 72 79 SSE 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 75 84 SSE 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 78 87 SSE 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 80 88 SSE 11 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 82 89 SSE 11 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 83 88 SSE 11 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 83 86 SSE 11 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 83 84 SSE 11 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 82 82 SSE 11 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 80 80 SSE 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 78 78 SSE 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 75 75 SSE 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]