Detailed Predictions for: Garlock
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 35.418766, -117.850633, 4770
LZ Altitude (f): 1970
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time UTC:

 N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Wed 80 80 W 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 79 79 WSW 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 78 78 W 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 75 75 W 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 74 74 W 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Wed 74 74 W 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Wed 72 72 W 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Wed 74 74 WSW 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Wed 75 76 WSW 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Wed 78 81 SSW 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Wed 82 88 SSW 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Wed 86 93 SSW 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Wed 89 98 SSW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Wed 93 102 SSW 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Wed 93 101 SSW 12 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Wed 94 101 SW 13 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Wed 95 100 SW 16 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Wed 93 96 WSW 16 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Wed 92 93 W 16 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Wed 90 90 W 17 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Wed 85 85 W 17 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Wed 83 83 W 17 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Wed 82 82 W 16 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Wed 79 79 W 13 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Thu 78 78 WSW 11 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Thu 77 77 WSW 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Thu 76 76 W 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Thu 74 74 W 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Thu 73 73 W 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Thu 72 72 SW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 71 71 SW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 72 72 SW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 73 74 S 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 75 78 S 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 79 84 S 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 83 90 S 8 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 86 95 S 8 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 90 99 S 8 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 91 99 SSW 12 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 92 99 SSW 12 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 93 98 SSW 12 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 91 94 SSW 14 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 90 91 SSW 14 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 87 87 SSW 14 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 84 84 SW 14 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 81 81 SW 14 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 78 78 SW 14 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 76 76 SW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 74 74 SW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 72 72 SW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 71 71 SSW 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 70 70 SSW 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 69 69 SSW 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 68 68 SW 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 68 68 SW 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 69 69 SW 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 70 72 SSW 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 73 76 SSW 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 77 82 SSW 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 80 87 SSW 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 83 92 SSW 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 86 95 SSW 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 88 96 SSW 18 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 89 96 SSW 18 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 89 94 SSW 18 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 87 90 WSW 18 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 85 86 WSW 18 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 82 82 WSW 18 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 79 79 WSW 17 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 76 76 WSW 17 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 73 73 WSW 17 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 71 71 SW 16 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 69 69 SW 16 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 67 67 SW 16 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 66 66 SW 11 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 64 64 SW 11 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 63 63 SW 11 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 63 63 WSW 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 63 63 WSW 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 64 64 WSW 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 66 68 SSW 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 69 72 SSW 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 73 78 SSW 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 77 84 SSW 9 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 81 90 SSW 9 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 84 93 SSW 9 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 87 95 SSW 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 88 95 SSW 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 88 93 SSW 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 87 90 WSW 17 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 84 85 WSW 17 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 81 81 WSW 17 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 78 78 WSW 16 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 75 75 WSW 16 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 73 73 WSW 16 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 71 71 SW 13 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 69 69 SW 13 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 68 68 SW 13 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 67 67 SW 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 66 66 SW 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 64 64 SW 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 64 64 WSW 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 64 64 WSW 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 66 66 WSW 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 68 70 SW 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 71 74 SW 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 74 80 SW 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 78 85 S 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 81 90 S 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 84 93 S 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 86 94 S 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 88 95 S 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 88 93 S 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 88 91 SW 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 86 87 SW 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 84 84 SW 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 81 81 WSW 14 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 78 78 WSW 14 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 76 76 WSW 14 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 74 74 WSW 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 73 73 WSW 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 72 72 WSW 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 71 71 WSW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 70 70 WSW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 69 69 WSW 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 68 68 WSW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 68 68 WSW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 69 69 WSW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 71 73 S 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 74 77 S 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 77 83 S 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 81 88 SE 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 84 93 SE 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 87 96 SE 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 89 97 S 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 91 98 S 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 91 96 S 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 91 94 SSW 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 90 91 SSW 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 88 88 SSW 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 85 85 SW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 82 82 SW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 79 79 SW 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]