Detailed Predictions for: Copper Mountain
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 38.048400, -119.193000, 8939
LZ Altitude (f): 7123
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time UTC:

 N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Wed 61 61 NW 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 60 60 NW 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 59 59 WNW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 59 59 WNW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 55 55 WNW 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Wed 58 58 WNW 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Wed 58 58 WNW 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Wed 59 59 WNW 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Wed 62 63 ENE 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Wed 61 64 ENE 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Wed 62 67 ENE 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Wed 64 71 E 9 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Wed 66 74 E 9 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Wed 68 76 E 9 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Wed 68 73 NW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Wed 69 73 NW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Wed 68 71 NW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Wed 67 68 W 13 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Wed 66 66 W 13 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Wed 65 65 W 13 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Wed 64 64 W 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Wed 64 64 W 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Wed 64 64 W 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Wed 63 63 NW 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Thu 62 62 NW 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Thu 60 60 NW 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Thu 60 60 WNW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Thu 60 60 WNW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Thu 56 56 WNW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Thu 59 59 NW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 59 59 NW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 59 59 NW 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 61 62 ENE 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 61 64 ENE 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 62 67 ENE 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 65 71 E 9 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 66 73 E 9 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 67 75 E 9 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 68 71 W 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 67 70 W 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 65 67 W 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 64 65 W 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 63 63 W 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 62 62 W 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 61 61 W 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 61 61 W 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 62 62 W 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 62 62 W 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 61 61 W 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 60 60 W 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 59 59 W 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 58 58 W 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 58 58 W 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 57 57 W 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 56 56 W 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 55 55 W 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 55 56 W 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 56 59 W 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 57 62 W 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 59 65 SSW 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 60 67 SSW 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 61 68 SSW 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 62 69 WSW 17 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 62 67 WSW 17 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 62 66 WSW 17 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 61 64 WSW 21 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 59 60 WSW 21 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 57 57 WSW 21 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 55 55 W 14 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 54 54 W 14 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 52 52 W 14 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 51 51 W 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 49 49 W 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 48 48 W 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 46 46 WSW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 45 45 WSW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 44 44 WSW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 44 44 WSW 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 45 45 WSW 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 47 47 WSW 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 49 50 WSW 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 51 54 WSW 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 53 58 WSW 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 55 62 SW 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 57 65 SW 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 60 69 SW 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 61 69 W 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 62 69 W 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 63 68 W 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 62 65 W 11 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 60 61 W 11 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 58 58 W 11 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 57 57 W 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 56 56 W 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 55 55 W 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 54 54 W 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 53 53 W 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 51 51 W 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 50 50 WNW 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 50 50 WNW 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 50 50 WNW 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 50 50 WNW 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 51 51 WNW 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 52 52 WNW 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 53 54 ENE 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 54 57 ENE 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 55 60 ENE 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 56 63 E 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 58 66 E 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 60 69 E 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 62 70 E 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 64 71 E 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 65 70 E 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 65 67 W 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 64 65 W 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 63 63 W 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 61 61 W 10 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 60 60 W 10 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 58 58 W 10 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 57 57 W 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 56 56 W 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 55 55 W 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 54 54 WNW 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 54 54 WNW 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 54 54 WNW 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 54 54 WNW 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 55 55 WNW 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 56 56 WNW 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 57 58 E 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 58 61 E 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 59 64 E 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 60 67 ESE 9 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 62 70 ESE 9 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 64 73 ESE 9 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 66 74 SE 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 67 74 SE 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 68 73 SE 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 68 71 WSW 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 66 67 WSW 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 64 64 WSW 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 62 62 W 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 61 61 W 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 60 60 W 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]