Detailed Predictions for: Bria Dog Ridge
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 37.705237, -118.670959, 8471
LZ Altitude (f): 7200
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time UTC:

 N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Wed 61 61 NNW 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 59 59 NNW 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 56 56 NNW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 56 56 NNW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 55 55 NNW 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Wed 54 54 N 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Wed 57 57 N 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Wed 60 60 N 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Wed 65 66 W 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Wed 70 73 W 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Wed 73 78 W 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Wed 76 83 E 8 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Wed 79 87 E 8 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Wed 80 88 E 8 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Wed 80 85 ENE 9 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Wed 81 85 ENE 9 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Wed 80 83 ENE 9 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Wed 79 80 WNW 11 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Wed 78 78 WNW 11 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Wed 74 74 WNW 11 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Wed 70 70 WNW 9 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Wed 68 68 WNW 9 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Wed 64 64 WNW 9 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Wed 62 62 NNW 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Thu 60 60 NNW 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Thu 59 59 NNW 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Thu 57 57 NNW 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Thu 56 56 NNW 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Thu 56 56 NNW 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Thu 55 55 NNW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 57 57 NNW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 60 60 NNW 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 65 66 E 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 69 72 E 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 73 78 E 4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 76 83 ESE 9 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 79 87 ESE 9 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 79 87 ESE 9 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 79 84 SE 10 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 80 84 SE 10 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 78 81 SE 10 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 78 80 SSE 9 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 76 77 SSE 9 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 72 72 SSE 9 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 68 68 WNW 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 65 65 WNW 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 63 63 WNW 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 61 61 W 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 59 59 W 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 57 57 W 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 55 55 W 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 53 53 W 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 52 52 W 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 53 53 W 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 55 55 W 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 58 58 W 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 62 63 SSW 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 65 68 SSW 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 69 74 SSW 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 71 78 SSE 13 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 72 80 SSE 13 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 73 81 SSE 13 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 72 79 SSW 13 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 73 79 SSW 13 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 72 76 SSW 13 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 71 74 WSW 16 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 68 69 WSW 16 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 64 64 WSW 16 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 60 60 W 16 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 57 57 W 16 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 55 55 W 16 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 53 53 W 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 51 51 W 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 49 49 W 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 47 47 W 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 46 46 W 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 44 44 W 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 45 45 W 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 47 47 W 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 50 50 W 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 54 55 NW 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 58 61 NW 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 61 66 NW 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 65 72 E 4 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 68 76 E 4 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 70 79 E 4 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 72 80 S 8 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 73 79 S 8 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 74 79 S 8 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 72 75 WSW 9 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 68 69 WSW 9 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 65 65 WSW 9 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 62 62 W 11 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 60 60 W 11 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 58 58 W 11 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 56 56 WNW 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 54 54 WNW 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 52 52 WNW 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 50 50 WNW 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 49 49 WNW 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 48 48 WNW 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 49 49 WNW 2 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 51 51 WNW 2 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 54 54 WNW 2 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 58 59 NNW 1 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 61 64 NNW 1 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 64 69 NNW 1 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 67 74 E 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 70 78 E 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 72 81 E 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 73 81 SE 8 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 74 81 SE 8 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 75 80 SE 8 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 74 76 SSE 5 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 72 73 SSE 5 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 68 68 SSE 5 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 65 65 WSW 5 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 62 62 WSW 5 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 60 60 WSW 5 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 58 58 W 3 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 56 56 W 3 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 54 54 W 3 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 52 52 W 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 51 51 W 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 50 50 W 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 51 51 NW 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 54 54 NW 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 58 58 NW 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 62 63 E 1 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 65 68 E 1 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 68 73 E 1 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 71 78 SE 10 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 73 81 SE 10 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 75 84 SE 10 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 76 84 SE 10 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 77 84 SE 10 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 78 83 SE 10 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 77 80 SSE 8 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 74 75 SSE 8 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 71 71 SSE 8 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 67 67 SSW 4 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 64 64 SSW 4 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 61 61 SSW 4 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]