Detailed Predictions for: Boomer Ridge
Launch Lat, Long, Altitude (f): 35.653635, -117.929502, 5833
LZ Altitude (f): 4093
Sounding

Station:

 KVBG

Date/Time UTC:

 N/A

Temp/Wind data from:

NOAA Digital Forecast

Site Forecasts
Time
(Local)		 High
Temp
Puddle
Temp
Wind
 (mph)		 Wind
 Gust		 Thermal
Ceiling
(ft)		 Soaring
Ceiling
(ft)		 Above
Launch
(ft)		 Thermal
Type		 Thermal
Index
(F)
12 Midnight Wed 75 75 WNW 16 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Wed 74 74 WNW 16 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Wed 74 74 WNW 16 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Wed 72 72 WNW 16 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Wed 72 72 WNW 14 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Wed 71 71 NW 14 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Wed 70 70 WNW 12 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Wed 73 73 WNW 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Wed 74 75 NW 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Wed 76 79 NNW 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Wed 80 85 SE 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Wed 82 89 SE 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Wed 85 94 SE 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Wed 87 96 SSE 9 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Wed 88 96 S 10 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Wed 88 95 SSW 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Wed 89 94 SW 14 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Wed 87 90 W 17 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Wed 84 85 W 18 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Wed 81 81 W 20 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Wed 76 76 W 21 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Wed 74 74 W 20 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Wed 74 74 WNW 19 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Wed 73 73 WNW 18 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Thu 72 72 WNW 17 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Thu 72 72 WNW 16 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Thu 72 72 WNW 16 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Thu 70 70 WNW 14 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Thu 70 70 WNW 13 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Thu 70 70 WNW 10 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Thu 68 68 WNW 10 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Thu 71 71 WNW 10 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Thu 72 73 S 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Thu 74 77 S 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Thu 78 83 S 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Thu 80 87 SSE 9 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Thu 83 91 SSE 9 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Thu 86 95 SSE 9 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Thu 86 94 S 12 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Thu 87 94 S 12 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Thu 88 93 S 12 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Thu 86 89 SW 16 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Thu 84 85 SW 16 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Thu 80 80 SW 16 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Thu 75 75 WSW 17 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Thu 73 73 WSW 17 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Thu 72 72 WSW 17 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Thu 71 71 W 16 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Fri 70 70 W 16 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Fri 69 69 W 16 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Fri 68 68 W 12 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Fri 67 67 W 12 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Fri 66 66 W 12 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Fri 66 66 W 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Fri 66 66 W 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Fri 67 67 W 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Fri 69 70 WSW 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Fri 71 74 WSW 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Fri 74 79 WSW 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Fri 76 83 S 11 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Fri 79 88 S 11 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Fri 81 90 S 11 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Fri 82 90 SSW 18 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Fri 83 90 SSW 18 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Fri 82 87 SSW 18 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Fri 80 83 WSW 23 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Fri 77 78 WSW 23 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Fri 73 73 WSW 23 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Fri 70 70 WSW 23 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Fri 68 68 WSW 23 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Fri 66 66 WSW 23 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Fri 65 65 W 20 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sat 64 64 W 20 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sat 63 63 W 20 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sat 62 62 W 17 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sat 61 61 W 17 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sat 60 60 W 17 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sat 59 59 W 14 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sat 60 60 W 14 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sat 62 62 W 14 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sat 65 66 W 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sat 68 71 W 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sat 71 76 W 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sat 74 81 S 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sat 77 86 S 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sat 80 89 S 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sat 81 89 SSW 11 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sat 82 89 SSW 11 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sat 82 87 SSW 11 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sat 80 83 WSW 18 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sat 76 77 WSW 18 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sat 72 72 WSW 18 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sat 69 69 W 20 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sat 67 67 W 20 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sat 66 66 W 20 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sat 65 65 W 17 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Sun 64 64 W 17 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Sun 63 63 W 17 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Sun 62 62 W 14 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Sun 61 61 W 14 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Sun 61 61 W 14 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Sun 61 61 W 13 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Sun 62 62 W 13 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Sun 64 64 W 13 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Sun 66 68 W 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Sun 68 71 W 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Sun 71 76 W 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Sun 74 81 SE 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Sun 77 86 SE 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Sun 79 88 SE 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Sun 81 89 SE 9 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Sun 82 89 SE 9 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Sun 82 87 SE 9 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Sun 81 84 SSW 11 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Sun 78 79 SSW 11 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Sun 75 75 SSW 11 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Sun 72 72 WSW 16 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Sun 70 70 WSW 16 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Sun 69 69 WSW 16 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 PM Sun 68 68 W 13 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Midnight Mon 67 67 W 13 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 AM Mon 66 66 W 13 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 AM Mon 66 66 W 11 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 AM Mon 65 65 W 11 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 AM Mon 65 65 W 11 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 AM Mon 65 65 W 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 AM Mon 66 66 W 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 AM Mon 68 68 W 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 AM Mon 70 72 WNW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 AM Mon 72 75 WNW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 AM Mon 75 80 WNW 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
11 AM Mon 77 84 ESE 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
12 Noon Mon 79 88 ESE 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
1 PM Mon 81 90 ESE 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2 PM Mon 83 91 SE 10 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
3 PM Mon 84 91 SE 10 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
4 PM Mon 85 90 SE 10 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
5 PM Mon 84 87 S 11 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
6 PM Mon 82 83 S 11 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
7 PM Mon 79 79 S 11 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
8 PM Mon 76 76 SW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
9 PM Mon 74 74 SW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
10 PM Mon 72 72 SW 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

DISCLAIMER: These estimates are intended to assist in daily site selection only.  No warranty is made concerning the accuracy of these estimates.  These estimates cannot be used to determine if conditions are safe for flying.  Conditions should be evaluated at the launch site by experienced pilots before launching.

Sounding: This is the site at which the weather balloon was released.  If the flying site predicted is far from the sounding site, the estimate is not valid.  Also, the sounding is done at 12Z (4AM PST).  If a front comes through, the sounding is no longer valid. The sounding becomes less valid later in the day.

Thermal Ceiling: the lower of the height at which the thermal stops rising and the cloud level.  We can't fly into the clouds, so it doesn't matter how much higher the thermal goes.  Remember that we can't get to the top of the thermal because of our sink rate.  Our upper limit will be lower than the reported ceiling.

Soaring Ceiling: We will stop going up when the thermal is rising just fast enough to offset our sink.  It is estimated that this happens when the temperature difference between the thermal and the surrounding air is about 2 degrees F. This number is an estimate of the maximum altitude we might reach if we start at launch height, and should be more reflective of our chances of soaring than the thermal top. Please let me know how this compares with actually flying, and I will adjust it as necessary.

Above Launch: The difference between how high we might get and how high we start. This estimate does not account for ridge lift.

High Temp: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.  Puddle temperatures can exceed this temperature. 

Puddle Temp: This estimate is based on the High Temp and the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com estimate of cloudiness, and the angle of the sun.  When the sun is directly overhead on a sunny day, the puddle temp is esimated to be 25 degrees warmer than the high ambient temperature. This estimate now includes a rigorous calculation of the Sun Angle, and accounts for the seasonal differences in zenith and daylight hours.

Wind: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Wind Gust: This estimate is taken from the National Weather Service or WeatherAPI.com website.

Thermal Type: Blue (no cloud formation) or White (Cloud formation)

Thermal Index: This is the maximum difference in temperature between the rising packet of air (the thermal) and the surrounding air.  The difference in temperature is responsible for the buoyancy of the thermal, and larger temperature differences mean faster rising thermals.  A value of about 10 F or greater often means that the conditions are soarable.  Values above 20 could indicate rowdy thermals.

Validity of estimate: Many factors (including strong wind, fronts, cloud shadows, incorrectly predicted temperatures, etc) can affect the validity of the estimates. 

Author: Tad Hurst

Supported By: Alan Crouse [email protected]